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Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Surveillance. The markets have been impervious really

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Speaker 1: to date during this unconventional election cycle. Look at what's

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Speaker 1: happening to p and some amazing firms and luxury brands

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Speaker 1: of China. China's gone from being a dream for a

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Speaker 1: lot of consumer companies to a real problem on though.

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Speaker 1: It's amazing to me that when Janet Yelling goes out

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Speaker 1: and speaks, she still gets questions about what would the

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Speaker 1: FED do if we went into a refession. Bloomberg Surveillance

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Speaker 1: your link to the world of economics, finance, and investment

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Speaker 1: on Bloomberg Radio. Good morning, everybody. It is nine o'clock

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Speaker 1: on Wall Street. I'm Michael McKee along with Francy and Lakwa.

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Speaker 1: We're previewing the Fed today. We're looking ahead to the

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Speaker 1: Bank of Japan. A lot of earnings out there as well,

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Speaker 1: and we had some economic data the March Advanced Trade

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Speaker 1: Reports to Commerce Department puts out a number now that

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Speaker 1: looks ahead. It looks at the most recent data that

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Speaker 1: they have on trade and gets it out more quickly

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Speaker 1: than they used to and it's a big contraction. Uh.

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Speaker 1: In the month of February, it was a sixty two

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Speaker 1: point nine billion dollar trade deficit that falls to fifty

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Speaker 1: six point nine and that is having an impact in

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Speaker 1: the currency markets today. The Forex Brief is brought to

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Speaker 1: you by Interactive Broker's winner of FX Weeks two thousand

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Speaker 1: fifteen award for the best retail Forex trading platform is

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Speaker 1: that I be at I b k R dot Com

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Speaker 1: slash four x. The dollar index is still down, but

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Speaker 1: not as much as it was ninety four point three

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Speaker 1: nine to one. Reason of course that the trade defficent

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Speaker 1: maybe smaller is because the because of the trade, because

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Speaker 1: the dollar is a little bit weaker. The end one

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Speaker 1: eleven nineteen, ahead of tonight's Bank of Japan meeting, the

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Speaker 1: euro one thirteen and euro yen goes for nine. The

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Speaker 1: big moves in the market today are being done down

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Speaker 1: under the Antipodean currencies. The Australia alien dollar is now

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Speaker 1: down by one point nine against the US dollar goes

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Speaker 1: for seventy cents at this point because they had no inflation.

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Speaker 1: As a matter of fact, inflation deflation in the most

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Speaker 1: recent quarter of two tenths of eight percent, and there

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Speaker 1: is speculation the Australian Central Bank next week will cut rates.

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Speaker 1: We are waiting to see what happens with the New

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Speaker 1: Zealand Central Bank. They too, are meeting today, and they are,

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Speaker 1: according to the Bloomberg story, nobody really knows what they're

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Speaker 1: gonna do. But the key Wei is off by six

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Speaker 1: tenths of a percent. You can bet with the FED

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Speaker 1: meeting today and with Japan on tap four tomorrow that

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Speaker 1: you are going to see some moves in the currency

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Speaker 1: markets over the next couple of days. Dave Wilson is here.

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Speaker 1: He's been keeping track of what's been going on in

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Speaker 1: the equity markets, and Dave, you're seeing for a FED

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Speaker 1: day some rather big moves in the futures markets. And

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Speaker 1: I assume that is largely reflected reflecting what's going on

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Speaker 1: with earning. True enough and Apple and Twitter to obvious cases.

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Speaker 1: Before I get to those, I just want to point

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Speaker 1: out there some breaking news. Yahoo reached an agreement with

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Speaker 1: Starboard Value, the activist investment firm which have been pushing

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Speaker 1: the company to make some kind of a deal. Uh,

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Speaker 1: they're adding four independent directors. And in the wake of

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Speaker 1: that news, you've got Yahoo shares up a bit more

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Speaker 1: than one percent. Yeah. Now, earnings, Yes, Apple down eight

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Speaker 1: percent in early trading. Sales fell for the first time

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Speaker 1: since two thousand three as fewer people upgraded to the

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Speaker 1: latest iPhones. Was a thirteen percent decline in fiscal second

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Speaker 1: quarter revenue, worse than analysts average essement in Bloomberg survey

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Speaker 1: and Apple Set expects sales to fall again this quarter. Uh.

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Speaker 1: Then you have Twitter, the most active stock, and early

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Speaker 1: trading down fifteen percent. The social network second quarter forecast

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Speaker 1: showed revenue will trail the average estment by at least

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Speaker 1: ten percent and possibly as much as thirteen percent. Twitter

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Speaker 1: says slowing growth in users has hurt advertising sales. Then

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Speaker 1: you have DreamWorks Animation up sixteen percent. The maker of

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Speaker 1: the Shrek and Kung Fu Panda movies isn't tsked to

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Speaker 1: be sold for more than three billion dollars to Comcast

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Speaker 1: Decording of the Wall Street Journal. The report suded unnamed sources. Comcast,

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Speaker 1: the parent of Universal Pictures, also the largest US cable company,

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Speaker 1: and their shares are up one and a half percent.

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Speaker 1: Company posted its biggest first quarter increase in video subscribers

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Speaker 1: in nine years. Comcastified the trend of chord cutting by

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Speaker 1: lowering users from rivals like a T and T which

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Speaker 1: had earnies outlet yesterday, and they actually showed a net

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Speaker 1: loss of television subscribers in the first quarter, and and

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Speaker 1: if fewer wireless customers than analysts expected. A T and

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Speaker 1: T shared down one percent. United Technologies up one and

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Speaker 1: a half percent. First quarter earnings and revenue with the

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Speaker 1: maker of jet engines and building system has exceeded analyssessments.

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Speaker 1: Cost cutting contributed to profit growth, but allowing on the

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Speaker 1: other hand, down a half a percent. The aircraft maker

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Speaker 1: took a hundred and fifty six million dollar charge in

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Speaker 1: the first quarter because of cost overruns on refueling tankers

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Speaker 1: built under a US Air Force contract. And one more

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Speaker 1: for you, Michael, can I can I? Can I say it?

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Speaker 1: Can I be Tom Keene here? One more? Give me

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Speaker 1: one more? Alright, go for it. Exam Works a five

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Speaker 1: and a half percent, this company that provides independent medical

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Speaker 1: examinations and other services. They accepted a two point two

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Speaker 1: billion dollar buyoed offer from Leonard Green and Partners. All Right,

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Speaker 1: Dave Wilson with our look at equities. Well, as we

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Speaker 1: have been noting this morning, much to regret, the US

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Speaker 1: political campaign is in full swing. Can't do anything about that, however,

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Speaker 1: we can't talk to somebody. This is probably the most

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Speaker 1: interesting angle you're going to hear about the campaign. Business

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Speaker 1: friend Josh King is a longtime advanced man in US politics,

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Speaker 1: a man who goes out and sets up the events

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Speaker 1: for candidates, and then he did it so well for

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Speaker 1: Bill Clinton in that he went on to become the

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Speaker 1: trip director for the White House. Everywhere the president went.

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Speaker 1: Josh made sure that things ran smoothly, and they always

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Speaker 1: ran smoothly, right, thank you, Mike, Well, no, not not really.

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Speaker 1: I mean, he's written a book about his experiences called

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Speaker 1: Off Script and Advanced Man's Guide to White House Stagecraft,

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Speaker 1: Campaign Spectacle, and Political Suicide. And there's what I was

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Speaker 1: amazed about, uh, in this book is how many people

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Speaker 1: you got to talk to you about the bad things

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Speaker 1: that happened to them when they were trying to make

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Speaker 1: these things happen. Well, a span of thirty years or

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Speaker 1: twenty years, or in some cases Tanner five years is

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Speaker 1: in political terms of fairly long time. And the first

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Speaker 1: thing that happened to me, probably in the summer of

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Speaker 1: was my old friend Matt Bennett, who, Mike, you may

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Speaker 1: have seen on some of the Clinton trips over the years, said,

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Speaker 1: you know, I have this journal that I kept from

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Speaker 1: when I happened to do this trip from Michael Dukakis

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Speaker 1: and we put him in an M one A one

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Speaker 1: Abrams tank and it happened to go down as the

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Speaker 1: worst political event of all time. I said, Mike, would

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Speaker 1: it be Matt, would it be possible if I could

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Speaker 1: take a peek at this journal that hasn't seen the

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Speaker 1: light of day in thirty years? He said sure, And

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Speaker 1: that opened up this Pandora's box and everyone said, yeah,

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Speaker 1: it's so far in the past. I'll tell you the

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Speaker 1: whole story. I love this. Just what is the worst

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Speaker 1: political I guess suicide? Right, How do you stage the

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Speaker 1: worst event in politics? Well, uh, you know it's not

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Speaker 1: it's not helpful when Gordon Brown leaves his cell phone

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Speaker 1: on in the car, right. I mean, you know most

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Speaker 1: of these times, it's it's when people make a mistake. Uh.

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Speaker 1: It's when either the candidate or his staff or her

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Speaker 1: staff uh inadvertently leaves something out or um. I'll give

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Speaker 1: you a couple of examples as we moved through the

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Speaker 1: pantheon of some of the worst political events in history.

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Speaker 1: Moving from dukak US eighty eight in the tank. You know,

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Speaker 1: uh Bob Dole in n AS Mike was covering the campaign,

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Speaker 1: was the Senate Majority leader, and um had great gravitas

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Speaker 1: in the Republican Party. But he was also would have

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Speaker 1: been one of the oldest, if not the oldest president

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Speaker 1: to be elected. And there was this narrative forming that

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Speaker 1: Dole was might be too old to take on the

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Speaker 1: then what fifty three year old Bill Clinton? And everyone

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Speaker 1: was looking for something to confirm that visually. And when

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Speaker 1: he came to Chico, California, in uh September of nine,

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Speaker 1: went to a rally that looked beautiful that day. A

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Speaker 1: young advanced man named Kent Gray had built a stage

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Speaker 1: bedecked with white balustrades that looked just out of Tom

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Speaker 1: Sawyer and red white and blue bunting, and the band

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Speaker 1: was playing uh some ragtime, and Dole, though he had

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Speaker 1: suffered these terrible war wounds in World War Two, walked

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Speaker 1: towards the edge of the stage and saw a young

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Speaker 1: boy four ft below outstretching his hand just to grip

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Speaker 1: the palm of the candidate. And Dole leaned over this

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Speaker 1: balustrade to try and uh shake this kid's hand and

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Speaker 1: show his vigor, and the advanced man had forgot to

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Speaker 1: latch down the balustrade to the stage, and down Dole

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Speaker 1: went into the scrum of photographers and secret service. As

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Speaker 1: you know, it seems that Robert Burns is probably the

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Speaker 1: patron saint of advanced Man. The best laid plans of

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Speaker 1: mice and men. Uh, that was gonna be the title

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Speaker 1: of the book, but it was just a minute to

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Speaker 1: go before we have to take a break. But a

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Speaker 1: lot of people don't realize how much bad luck plays

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Speaker 1: into it. The scream uh you know from um uh

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Speaker 1: from from the campaign last time they forgot to turn.

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Speaker 1: They forgot that the crowd would noise was too loud.

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Speaker 1: Terrible terrible misfortune befalling Howard Dean, you know, he's he

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Speaker 1: has three thousand people in the val Air ballroom in

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Speaker 1: West des Moines, Iowa, and he's just trying to project

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Speaker 1: to this crowd that has seen their dreams dashed by

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Speaker 1: the results in the Iowa caucus. And Dola's can't hear

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Speaker 1: himself because it's so loud in that room, and we're

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Speaker 1: wearing microphones, Mike, and we can we have this monitor

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Speaker 1: of how we're projecting. Dean had nothing in that room,

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Speaker 1: so he was screaming out to the room. But there's

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Speaker 1: only one isolated microphone on him that all of the

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Speaker 1: TV networks were taking from the multibox in the pool feed,

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Speaker 1: so that everyone watching in New York of Washington was saying,

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Speaker 1: this guy has deranged when he was just trying to project. Well,

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Speaker 1: we're just trying to project. And we will continue our

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Speaker 1: conversation with Josh King and the author of the new

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Speaker 1: book Off Script, An Advanced Man's Guide, coming up here

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Speaker 1: on Bluebird. First, we're gonna check in with Michael Barr

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Speaker 1: and get the latest world and national headlines. Michael, Mike,

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Speaker 1: thank you very much. Republican front runner Donald Trump declared

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Speaker 1: himself the presumptive nominee after your strong winds in all

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Speaker 1: five Northeast states holding prime aries yesterday Pennsylvania and that

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Speaker 1: a good Maryland, Delaware, and Rhode Island. Today, Trump will

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Speaker 1: give a foreign policy speech in Washington. Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton

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Speaker 1: has all but locked up the Democratic race after winning

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Speaker 1: four out of the five states. FBI officials are set

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Speaker 1: to urge against disclosing to Apple a review of an

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Speaker 1: iPhone hacking tool that was used to break into the

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Speaker 1: phone of a dead terrorist. That's according to a person

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Speaker 1: familiar with the matter talking to Bloomberg. The final decision

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Speaker 1: will be made by FBI Director James Comy. It will

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Speaker 1: be conveyed to the White House. Global News twenty four

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Speaker 1: hours a day, powered by our twenty four hundred journalists

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Speaker 1: and more than a hundred fifty news bureaus from around

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Speaker 1: the world. Michael Barr, Thank you, Michael. Well, we are

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Speaker 1: looking at the markets that are losing ground as we

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Speaker 1: get closer to the FED decision, as we get closer

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Speaker 1: to the open this morning. Right now, SMP features down

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Speaker 1: by six. It's a three tenth drop. We'll be here

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Speaker 1: at two o'clock this afternoon for the FED decides on

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