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Speaker 1: Ye. Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene

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Speaker 1: Jay Lee. We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment,

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Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud,

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course, on the Bloomberg. The

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Speaker 1: United States has blacklisted eight Chinese tech ferns for suppressing

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Speaker 1: religious minorities in China. Meanwhile, China has effectively blacklisted the

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Speaker 1: US basketball team for supporting the Hong Kong protests. I

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Speaker 1: want to bring in Bill later talk about this Milk

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Speaker 1: in Institute Chief Economists. Bill. The examples of the last

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Speaker 1: twenty four hours are massive, and they just underlined the

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Speaker 1: fact that this tension is going nowhere, regardless of how

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Speaker 1: the trade talks go this week, and regardless of who

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Speaker 1: is in the White House. John, You're absolutely right the

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Speaker 1: notion that there's a trade the spute has now spilled

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Speaker 1: over into a capital markets dispute. If we start interfering

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Speaker 1: with global capital flows, that's really going to have massive

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Speaker 1: implications for whether or not the global economy can pick

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Speaker 1: up again, because the global market has become so integrated.

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Speaker 1: The minute the US starts to play around with the

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Speaker 1: notion that we might start to shave off the amount

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Speaker 1: of support we give to the Chinese stocks, even even

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Speaker 1: though yes it's a real problem. We've always said the

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Speaker 1: Chinese companies don't adhere to the same accounting standards that

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Speaker 1: we've had in the for other US companies. But why

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Speaker 1: bring it up now, and why bring up the blacklisting now?

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Speaker 1: I think it's part of this kabuki dance where we

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Speaker 1: throw everything we can on the table and see what

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Speaker 1: the Chinese do to it. And of course the Chinese

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Speaker 1: is gonna back off, and I think that dispute that

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Speaker 1: kabuki is going to require the principles to get together

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Speaker 1: and we set the door on the board again. And

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Speaker 1: that's gonna happen in November at the APEC meeting. I

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Speaker 1: look Bill at uh all that's going on and the

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Speaker 1: fact as it reacts within the market, what are the

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Speaker 1: consequences of the market signaling breaking down the new loads.

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Speaker 1: We're not there yet, but if we break down through

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Speaker 1: that stress of late August, what does that signal? I

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Speaker 1: think that the markets have become so confused with a

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Speaker 1: degree of uncertainty, and now we're throwing even more uncertainty

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Speaker 1: onto the plate in terms of messing with global capital flows. Um,

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Speaker 1: it may get to the point where investors are going

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Speaker 1: to give up and we are going to have a

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Speaker 1: real severe market crash, which will have real let's go

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Speaker 1: to your expertise. Let's explain that in the partial differentials

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Speaker 1: of imports and exports, Let's use the United States as

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Speaker 1: the basis. Are we going to see diminished imports? I

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Speaker 1: guess so, But what about our exports redounding on all

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Speaker 1: this market and geopolitical turmoil. Our exports depend upon world growth,

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Speaker 1: and in particular it depends upon the supply uh change

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Speaker 1: that have formed for Mexico and Canada. So the first

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Speaker 1: priority that we have to do for policy is to

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Speaker 1: get U S. M C A pass so that we

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Speaker 1: can at least set the production side of the economy.

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Speaker 1: Then the issue's demand. We know European economies are going

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Speaker 1: into recession. We know China has slowed, and that's going

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Speaker 1: to hold back our exports. But look at the US

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Speaker 1: domestic economy, it's only you know exports, was imports together

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Speaker 1: are only about of the U. S. Economy, so it's

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Speaker 1: still a small share. But the key, the real killer

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Speaker 1: is going to be when capital flows start to get

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Speaker 1: messed with, and if capital flows start to shut down,

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Speaker 1: that will hurt you. To be clear, here, we haven't

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Speaker 1: seen that, but these news flows. John Farrell mentions the NBA. Okay,

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Speaker 1: I think that's tangential. Fine, but it's additive, isn't it.

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Speaker 1: Towards where these two warring partners, China and the United

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Speaker 1: States Catherine Man's dysfunction begin to talk about capital flows

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Speaker 1: as well. Actually it's not just acctive. I think it's multiplicative.

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Speaker 1: In fact, we're talking about logarithmic and exponential type effects

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Speaker 1: where we have huge don linearities. Trade is something that

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Speaker 1: we can deal with because it's a small share of

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Speaker 1: US GDP. Capital flows are not a small share of

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Speaker 1: US GDP. In fact, capital flows, the flows coming into

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Speaker 1: the United States has what's hold at the US economy

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Speaker 1: for all these years. We started messing with that and

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Speaker 1: we will interfere with US growth link in Europe on this. Then,

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Speaker 1: I was trained that our trade with Europe is far

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Speaker 1: more substantial than the dynamics with emerging markets are developed markets?

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Speaker 1: How do you fold in the European export import dynamics

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Speaker 1: with this trade war with China? In Europe, the domestic

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Speaker 1: economy in Europe is very is very big. In fact,

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Speaker 1: the EU together is about the same size of the

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Speaker 1: United States. But the European trade has now become so

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Speaker 1: dependent upon China demand that much of our our our

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Speaker 1: our supply chain connections with Europe are all ultimately leading

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Speaker 1: to the demand that's in China. And that's where the new,

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Speaker 1: the new shape of trade has has affected the US.

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Speaker 1: You're just joining us this morning. Futures at negative twenty one, down,

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Speaker 1: futures at negative one three, and the yield market moves substantially.

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Speaker 1: We see the thirty year bond in three basis points

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Speaker 1: two point zero two percent in the and you're at

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Speaker 1: one again. Really quote something, John, But I'd like to

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Speaker 1: wrap things up by having a conversation about an argument

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Speaker 1: that people make on this program, which is that somehow

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Speaker 1: China can wait out the president and hope that he

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Speaker 1: doesn't get a second term. The idea being that somehow

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Speaker 1: there's this fluffy democrat wanning in the White House for

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Speaker 1: the Chinese to deal with in a year's time. I

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Speaker 1: just don't buy it. Last night I got hold of

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Speaker 1: the The Trade Stance of Senator Warren. She published it

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Speaker 1: back in July, and you go through that Trade Stance

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Speaker 1: bill and you look at the details, and it's all

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Speaker 1: about adhering to a certain set of standards, a certain

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Speaker 1: set of standards that Senator Warren wants everyone who has

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Speaker 1: a trade deal with the United States to meet. And

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Speaker 1: it's so onerous. Even the United States itself does not

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Speaker 1: meet those standards and build The metrics might change with

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Speaker 1: a Democratic president, but the outcome will be just the same.

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Speaker 1: Wotes it. We will continue to have tension between China

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Speaker 1: and the United States for as far as the eye

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Speaker 1: can see. Boy John. If Joe Biden gets thrown out

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Speaker 1: and it becomes a concert between Warren and Trump, watch

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Speaker 1: the needs run for a deal because they know they're

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Speaker 1: going to get a much better deal out of Trump

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Speaker 1: than they will have the Democratic extremist Warren position where

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Speaker 1: you were. You know, health standards, medical standards, all sorts

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Speaker 1: of standards will be put into the important the United

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Speaker 1: States and China will have enormous barriers to trade. He

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Speaker 1: erected because of a Warren presidency. Bill. Great to catch

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Speaker 1: up with you as always, Bill Lee Milkin Institute Chief

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Speaker 1: Economists joining us from Washington. D C. Tobias Adrian joined

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Speaker 1: US now i MS Monetary and Capital Markets Department director,

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Speaker 1: formerly of the New York Federal Reserve. He also taught

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Speaker 1: at Princeton University and and Why You to Buy Us

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Speaker 1: Great to have you with us on the program. I

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Speaker 1: want to reflect on a piece of research that you

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Speaker 1: and the I m F put out last spring. Back

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Speaker 1: in April. In the United States, the ratio of corporate

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Speaker 1: debt to GDP is at record high levels. In several

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Speaker 1: European countries, banks are overloaded with government bombs. In China,

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Speaker 1: bank profitability is declining and capital levels remain low at

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Speaker 1: small and medium size lenders. To Bias, do we have

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Speaker 1: a problem? Good morning, I'm very happy to be here. Well,

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Speaker 1: what we have seen over the past couple of months

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Speaker 1: that interest rates have come down, not just in the

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Speaker 1: US but globally. Today the stock of negative yielding debt

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Speaker 1: globally is close to fifteen trillion dollars. And of course

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Speaker 1: investors are reaching for yield, they want to reach nominal

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Speaker 1: return targets, and that means that that is rising around

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Speaker 1: the world, and that does create certain vulnerabilities. But to Bias,

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Speaker 1: this comes at a time when GDP growth has what

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Speaker 1: a three handle for global GDP. What are you looking

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Speaker 1: for next year, because many people are looking for a

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Speaker 1: two handle, and I just wonder as the global growth

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Speaker 1: picture de salarates, whether these vulnerable vulnerability as will look

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Speaker 1: a how a lot worse. Well. Over recent months, we

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Speaker 1: have certainly seen an increase in downside risks, and center

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Speaker 1: banks around the world have reacted to this increase of

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Speaker 1: downside risks by aggressively moving monetary policy. There has been

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Speaker 1: an easing of monetary policy in many countries around the world,

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Speaker 1: including in the US where the Federal Reserve has eased.

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Speaker 1: But we estimate that in countries with a GDP of

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Speaker 1: sevent of global GDP, monetary policy has been east and

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Speaker 1: that has taken away some of the downside risks to growth.

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Speaker 1: What about the fiscal space there's out there. We spoke

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Speaker 1: to it our gaspar earlier this morning. Fold our salvation

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Speaker 1: of fiscal space into how we will look at interest rates.

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Speaker 1: Of course, with lower interest rates and interest rates that

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Speaker 1: are expected to be lower for a long time, in principle,

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Speaker 1: that does create some fiscal space. However, we do worry

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Speaker 1: about many economies where that is already high. Well, you

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Speaker 1: were about the debt is already high. Is the US

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Speaker 1: one of those economies in the US UM there are

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Speaker 1: certainly some fiscal challenges, and we have urged the US

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Speaker 1: many times in the past UM to address phisical challenges

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Speaker 1: of the future. Tobios, thank you so much twice. Adrian

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Speaker 1: with the International Monetary Fund this morning. Yeah, Azore is

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Speaker 1: with us, and you need to know only one thing

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Speaker 1: besides his services to the International Monetary Fund is director

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Speaker 1: of the Middle Eastern Central Asian Department. Is he has

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Speaker 1: had a extraordinary public service to his Lebanon, his finance

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Speaker 1: minister over a three year span. And we are honored

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Speaker 1: uh that Mr Zurka join us now, dr Azor, I

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Speaker 1: have to rip up the script. With the new turmoil

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Speaker 1: politically of Turkey, of Syria and frankly of the adjacent

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Speaker 1: nations of the Middle Eastern community, how will the Middle

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Speaker 1: Eastern community respond to the politics in the new economic

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Speaker 1: tensions of this announcement by President Trump. Political tension has

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Speaker 1: a toll on economy as well as also on the

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Speaker 1: social situation. As you know, the large cohort of refugees

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Speaker 1: are coming from Syria, impacting economies of Lebanon, Jordan and

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Speaker 1: also casting a negative impact on trade and flow of

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Speaker 1: services and people between those countries. Therefore, the increasing intention

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Speaker 1: is affecting continuy is of the region who in the

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Speaker 1: last few years were not able to grow case in

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Speaker 1: Lebanon or in children higher than two percent, let alone

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Speaker 1: the humanitarian impact that this issue has on on both

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Speaker 1: host community as well as also the refugees. Your your

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Speaker 1: researchers centered on the gleaming buildings of I'm gonna call

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Speaker 1: it oil Middle East. But after the spring, there's an

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Speaker 1: attempt to find a resurgence or new or nascent capitalism

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Speaker 1: within the Middle East. Give us an update on the

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Speaker 1: ability to find capitalism in the Middle East? Is it?

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Speaker 1: Are there? There's signs of life there. Look, we are

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Speaker 1: trying to help many of the countries of the region

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Speaker 1: in order to build an economic model where growth is

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Speaker 1: led by the private sector, where those economies can provide

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Speaker 1: the jobs for the young population. It's a region where

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Speaker 1: on average six of the population is below thirty and

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Speaker 1: jobs need to be created. Therefore, inclusive growth it's very

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Speaker 1: important as priority for the region and only the private

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Speaker 1: sector can help provide growth and this can be done

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Speaker 1: through improving financial inclusion, helping startups and samese and also

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Speaker 1: make the state more efficient but also more accountable. And

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Speaker 1: this is why we are geting our effort effort internally

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Speaker 1: towards improving governance and helping countries fight corruption. How critical

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Speaker 1: is Turkey within the mix in whether the projection of

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Speaker 1: the I am of How does Turkey fit with all

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Speaker 1: the challenges there? How do they fit into this attempt

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Speaker 1: for a better Middle East? Look? Turkey, Saudi, Egypt, Iran

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Speaker 1: are the largest economies that are affecting the Middle East,

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Speaker 1: both politically and economically. Of course those are big markets.

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Speaker 1: For example, Egypt is a market of hundred million population.

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Speaker 1: Saudi is the largest economy in the region, one of

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Speaker 1: the G twenty countries. And Turkey has a lot of trade,

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Speaker 1: um and investment in the region. And therefore, wherever can

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Speaker 1: be done in all to improve UH and or reduced

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Speaker 1: the better years for good self people will have to

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Speaker 1: mend disposed to impact on the region. Very good mrs

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Speaker 1: or thank you so much doctors or as you how

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Speaker 1: do or with the International Monetary Fund and update there

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Speaker 1: in the Middle East, Sarah House with us doing strong

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Speaker 1: economics at wells Fargo and distill the American economy, Sarah,

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Speaker 1: We've just got to go to the basic call, which

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Speaker 1: is it is it a two run rate or a

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Speaker 1: one handle on it? Does wells Fargo think, well, actually

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Speaker 1: dip to a run rate economy below two, Yes, we do.

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Speaker 1: So we're looking at growth over the next couple quarters

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Speaker 1: to probably come in somewhere around one and a half percent,

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Speaker 1: so that would be decidedly below the fat deustaments of

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Speaker 1: puntial growth. And really this boils down to the weakness

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Speaker 1: that we're seeing in terms of business investment as we

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Speaker 1: see the trade war drag on and uncertainty continue to linger,

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Speaker 1: and to some extent, some moderation in the consumer space too.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I understand the fourth or fifth mandate of

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Speaker 1: the Federal Reserve system is to avoid trade wars. But

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Speaker 1: Chairman polists speak about all of this today, what will

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Speaker 1: you listen for? So I would listen for what he's

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Speaker 1: looking at in terms of of what that redline is.

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Speaker 1: So we've seen to some extent, I think Pal's had

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Speaker 1: an easy bias over the past few months. But given

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Speaker 1: that they've already cut twice, does he think that that

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Speaker 1: should be sufficient for now? Um? Given that policy does

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Speaker 1: work with a lag wait to see if things play

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Speaker 1: out later, or just given the data flow that we've

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Speaker 1: seen recently where it looks like the economy is continuing

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Speaker 1: to weaken, does he think more accommodation is necessary. Let's

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Speaker 1: talk about the diets and we've just at Sarah PPI

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Speaker 1: has just posted the biggest monthly drop in more than

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Speaker 1: four years, and I'm trying to understand where the downward

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Speaker 1: pressure is coming from. Have we got a demand side problem? Sarah, Well,

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Speaker 1: I think we have seen demand demand growth slow and

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Speaker 1: so I think that's part of it. I mean, if

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Speaker 1: you look at some of the details, part of the

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Speaker 1: weakness was in that trade services components. So that's measured

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Speaker 1: by margins. So I'm not surprising to see that margins

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Speaker 1: are getting squeezed right now given some of the pressure

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Speaker 1: from from tariffs right now, so businesses are are having

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Speaker 1: um to to reduce those margins. UM. We did see

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Speaker 1: some strength in in the core services components, so it

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Speaker 1: wasn't all UM completely weak. But I think bottom line

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Speaker 1: is there's just still not a lot of inflationary pressure. UM.

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Speaker 1: No sign that domestic producers are really taking much advantage

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Speaker 1: or are are lined up to where they can they

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Speaker 1: can increase prices. And I would go one step further, Sah,

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Speaker 1: no sign that the trade dispute between the Chinese and

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Speaker 1: the United States has actually ended up with a broad

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Speaker 1: a lift to price pressure in America in the way

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Speaker 1: that some people thought it might. What do you think

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Speaker 1: of that? Right? So, I mean we've seen if if

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Speaker 1: you look at the n f I D survey this morning,

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Speaker 1: I mean, plan stories, prices aren't going anywhere. If anything,

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Speaker 1: we've seen them them come down over over the past

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Speaker 1: year or so. And I think that speaks to the

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Speaker 1: fact that the demand picture is weakening, and so you

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Speaker 1: still have a lot of hesitancy among businesses to pass

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Speaker 1: on those those prices. Well within the parsing of that

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Speaker 1: is the idea that we will import bring in a

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Speaker 1: disinflationary tendency from global slowdown. I mean, frankly, this is

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Speaker 1: a question I'll ask uh the new managing director of

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Speaker 1: the I m F here in an hour and a

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Speaker 1: half or forty five minutes, whatever it is. But but Sarah,

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Speaker 1: is that what this is about is we're importing the

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Speaker 1: world's troubles. I think overall, when you when you look

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Speaker 1: at where the weakness and the US economy is coming from.

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Speaker 1: So we've seen manufacturing its certainly been even the weak spot.

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Speaker 1: So to the extent that, um that that where you're

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Speaker 1: seeing the slowdown is more tied to that base. Um.

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Speaker 1: But you know, I think you do have some offsets.

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Speaker 1: So all the demand pictures just slowing. Of course, we're

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Speaker 1: also having to deal with with the flip side of

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Speaker 1: this trade war, which is the increased pressure from tarot.

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Speaker 1: So um, it's not a clear cut picture. Sarah, Thank

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Speaker 1: you so much. Sarah House wells Fargo. Hereafter is John

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Speaker 1: you what what was that statistic? John? You had? I

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Speaker 1: missed that the biggest monthly drop in four years. Trade risk, geo,

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Speaker 1: political risk, I get the latest. We welcome our next guest,

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Speaker 1: Tom Petrie. Been covering the oil industry forever, I mean

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Speaker 1: in a nice way. Petrie Partners Chairman joined us our

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Interactor Broker studio. So Tom, let's just start with

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Speaker 1: the geopolitical backdrop for the energy complex. Just the news

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Speaker 1: we've had over the last couple of days with Turkey

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Speaker 1: and Syria. How do you frame your call on energy

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Speaker 1: as it relates to the just ever dynamic geopolitical backdrop?

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Speaker 1: It really is UH as as complex as I've ever seen.

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Speaker 1: We've got a situation involving Syria, the US withdrawal beginning

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Speaker 1: to look just like the abandonment of Saigon, and as

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Speaker 1: a historical president UH and denied by the by the President.

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Speaker 1: But the fact the matter is, UH, it's in the perception,

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Speaker 1: if it's in the minds of those who are dealing

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Speaker 1: with the consequences of it, UH, they're the ones that

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Speaker 1: probably have the best take on it. But we've also

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Speaker 1: got other situations Libya. UH. What's going on in Libya

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Speaker 1: right now? The US is backing UH, the the the

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Speaker 1: government in Tripoli, General hata Uh leading the rebels in

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Speaker 1: the east, is being funded is being funded by basically

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Speaker 1: by UH, the Saudis and in Egypt and others. And

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Speaker 1: so we've got this really complex situation where at times

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Speaker 1: we're on one side of the table. On an other

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Speaker 1: times we were talking about our allies, and that combination

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Speaker 1: UH just leaves us with a with a hopeless situation.

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Speaker 1: The good thing is I think that that because of

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Speaker 1: a success of the Shale Revolution, when we get when

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Speaker 1: we test below fifty on w T I, pretty powerful

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Speaker 1: self correcting forces kick in. When we get above sixty five,

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Speaker 1: just the opposite sixty five on its way to seventy,

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Speaker 1: and we begin to curtail demand. And and so those

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Speaker 1: are the fundamentals that against the backdrop of a Middle

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Speaker 1: East challenge to deal with these uh is really uh,

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Speaker 1: not unprecedented, but it's as high as I saw thirty

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Speaker 1: and forty years ago, right exactly. So when we talk

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Speaker 1: about crude and just commodities in general, obviously supply demand, UM,

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Speaker 1: it seems to me, not not being an energy expert

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Speaker 1: like you, that the supply story has been a little

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Speaker 1: bit in the background. It's been more about demand and

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Speaker 1: people are concerned, I guess about global trade, trade uncertainties,

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Speaker 1: trade tensions, and what does that mean for global growth.

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Speaker 1: Has that been kind of the driver of maybe a

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Speaker 1: little bit lower oil prices. It has, uh, you know,

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Speaker 1: I do think that the demand picture, it's the fear

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Speaker 1: of future demand. Basically because of the availability of new

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Speaker 1: supplies in North America from the shale revolution, the need

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Speaker 1: has been there for for global demand growth to be

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Speaker 1: on the order of one point three or more million

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Speaker 1: barrels per day per year in growth UM. With the

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Speaker 1: with what's going on right now, the fear is is

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Speaker 1: that going to be a one point one? Is gonna

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Speaker 1: be a million barrels a day? Or is it gonna

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Speaker 1: be nine? If it is, is that it's gonna be

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Speaker 1: a pretty severe test for OPEC to be the balancing

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Speaker 1: factor because they need UH, they need revenues to run

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Speaker 1: their government in addition to maintaining their ability to supply oil.

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Speaker 1: So give us a sense of how OPEC is right now.

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Speaker 1: How unified are they? I guess it's plus Russia. Just

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Speaker 1: give us a state of OPEC right now. Well, you

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Speaker 1: you put your finger right on it. There's Saudi Arabia

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Speaker 1: and their strongest ally is not a member of OPACKERS Russia.

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Speaker 1: The alignment of interests there began in two thousand and

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Speaker 1: fourteen when UH, the then Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman,

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Speaker 1: was making um from the from April of that year

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Speaker 1: to October almost monthly trips to Moscow. They formulated the idea,

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Speaker 1: let's bend the supply curve in North America from the

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Speaker 1: shale revolution, and for about eight to nine months they

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Speaker 1: were successful. They competed on for volumes, they competed on price,

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Speaker 1: and we saw that the hundred dollar w t I

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Speaker 1: was driven through seventy, which was their objective, but it

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Speaker 1: went through it like a hot knife through butter and

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Speaker 1: didn't bottom until it got down below thirty to six

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Speaker 1: dollars and forty cents, by which time they realized, gee,

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Speaker 1: we didn't quite mean to make that happen, and and uh,

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Speaker 1: now we've spent several years building it back up. But

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Speaker 1: what what we clearly have now is a situation where, uh,

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Speaker 1: if you know, tests below fifty don't really work for

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Speaker 1: the shale revolution very well, and tests above to seventy

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Speaker 1: don't work for global demand growth, and so I think

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Speaker 1: we're in a zone there that's gonna work. Uh, given that,

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Speaker 1: but it's still requires some real adjustments by the individual

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Speaker 1: producers to make sure they're allocating capital to their very

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Speaker 1: best returns. So let's go to that. We'll move from

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Speaker 1: the just looking at the commodity to some of the

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Speaker 1: companies again suggesting maybe a fifty to sixty five range

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Speaker 1: is a pretty decent range for for crude. How are

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Speaker 1: the big oil companies Are they set up to maximize

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Speaker 1: profits in that kind of range? Do you think the uh, well,

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Speaker 1: first of all the major oil companies in North America,

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Speaker 1: their presence in North America, they've been behind the curve

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Speaker 1: on the shale revolution because of the pressures that are

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Speaker 1: developing here. They're getting a second kick at the can,

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Speaker 1: a second chance to at least consider how they can

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Speaker 1: move into UH this and have be a bigger part

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Speaker 1: of their portfolio. That the major companies are generally in

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Speaker 1: pretty good financial shape. They're not over levered, they have

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Speaker 1: full integration, so they can turn the light sweet oil

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Speaker 1: that is typical of the major place here in North

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Speaker 1: America and especially in the US into valuable product UH gasoline, diesel,

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Speaker 1: and so on. So they're in they're in good shape

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Speaker 1: UM and they and generally they're competitive in the marketplace

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Speaker 1: because they pay a dividend, so they're outperforming for UH.

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Speaker 1: The independence below that were who have been on the

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Speaker 1: cutting edge of the shale revolution. Some are are pushing

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Speaker 1: the limits on leverage and they've got to challenge ahead

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Speaker 1: for the next several years in all likelihood. And then

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Speaker 1: those who are who have watched their balance sheet are

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Speaker 1: still well positioned, but they're probably more competitors competing for

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Speaker 1: the best plays, and that probably sets up conditions where

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Speaker 1: we'll get some consolidation over the coming three to five years,

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Speaker 1: and you think that will be in the context of

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Speaker 1: maybe some of the bigger, more integrated companies coming and

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Speaker 1: buying in some of the more independent companies are maybe

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Speaker 1: consolidation among the independents themselves. Yeah, okay, so it's interesting.

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Speaker 1: So the is the expectation when you when you go

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Speaker 1: out and talk to your clients into companies you cover

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Speaker 1: that oil is fairly stable in this range, barring anything

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Speaker 1: crazy which could happen with a tweet. Tomorrow's stables a

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Speaker 1: relative term. I mean, when you're when you're fluctuating between

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Speaker 1: the prices that we've seen in the last twelve twelve months,

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Speaker 1: where you're touched on seventy and you've been as low

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Speaker 1: as forty nine, that's there's a fair amount of latility

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Speaker 1: in that. But yes, it's now a fairly well defined

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Speaker 1: range where we're gonna see the movement of oil over

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Speaker 1: something short of that upper range and and maybe only

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Speaker 1: occasionally testing the lower range. So in that sense, it's

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Speaker 1: it's a more normal behavior than we've had, say in

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Speaker 1: two thousand fourteen. Tom Petrie, thank you so much for

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Speaker 1: joining us from Petree Partners. He's a chairman there and

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Speaker 1: joins us in our Bloomberg Inactor Broker studio, giving us

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Speaker 1: the thoughts on the crude business, energy infrastructure. Tom has

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Speaker 1: been covering the industry for decades, well respected and certainly

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Speaker 1: knows that knows are from the commodity perspective all the

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Speaker 1: way down to the producer perspective as well, so appreciate

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Speaker 1: him coming in. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast.

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Speaker 1: Subscribe and listen to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or

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Speaker 1: whichever podcast platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at Tom

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Speaker 1: Keen before the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide.

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Speaker 1: I'm Bloomberg Radio