1 00:00:10,280 --> 00:00:14,280 Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to another episode of the Odd Loots Podcast. 2 00:00:14,360 --> 00:00:18,320 Speaker 1: I'm Joe Wisn't Thal and I'm Tracy Alloway. So, Tracy, 3 00:00:18,480 --> 00:00:22,680 Speaker 1: something that you've been writing about lately, and of course 4 00:00:22,720 --> 00:00:26,000 Speaker 1: we're still in the middle of this extraordinary global crisis. 5 00:00:26,520 --> 00:00:29,639 Speaker 1: The story has taken on a new new dimension and 6 00:00:29,680 --> 00:00:34,519 Speaker 1: I feel like you being positioned in Hong Kong covering 7 00:00:34,560 --> 00:00:38,040 Speaker 1: the story from Asia. It's going to really, uh, really 8 00:00:38,080 --> 00:00:42,519 Speaker 1: an area that you can appreciate. Oh what's that? Well, 9 00:00:42,560 --> 00:00:44,879 Speaker 1: I mean in the last few days and we're recording 10 00:00:44,960 --> 00:00:49,360 Speaker 1: this on May four twenties. So important to note, um, 11 00:00:49,479 --> 00:00:53,479 Speaker 1: the the idea of the trade war, terror of China 12 00:00:53,640 --> 00:00:57,560 Speaker 1: US trade tensions has really sort of re emerged as 13 00:00:57,680 --> 00:01:01,280 Speaker 1: one of the subplots, so to speak, within this crist Oh. Yeah, 14 00:01:01,440 --> 00:01:05,800 Speaker 1: so after a relatively long hiatus, we have Donald Trump 15 00:01:05,959 --> 00:01:09,440 Speaker 1: once again threatening tariffs on China, and of course there 16 00:01:09,480 --> 00:01:12,160 Speaker 1: are political dimensions to what he's doing. China is sort 17 00:01:12,200 --> 00:01:15,880 Speaker 1: of an easy distraction or an easy scapegoat for the 18 00:01:15,920 --> 00:01:20,120 Speaker 1: coronavirus chaos. But yeah, it's definitely interesting to see the 19 00:01:20,160 --> 00:01:23,679 Speaker 1: trade war pop up again in the midst of what 20 00:01:23,920 --> 00:01:27,160 Speaker 1: is arguably the biggest global recession that we have had 21 00:01:27,319 --> 00:01:31,800 Speaker 1: for a long time. Yeah. And it's interesting too because 22 00:01:31,959 --> 00:01:36,920 Speaker 1: obviously the trade war trade tensions dominated really the second 23 00:01:36,959 --> 00:01:40,959 Speaker 1: half of last year, and you would have expected that 24 00:01:41,080 --> 00:01:44,920 Speaker 1: sort of perhaps very early on in this crisis, uh, 25 00:01:44,959 --> 00:01:47,960 Speaker 1: that due to the origin of the virus, that Trump 26 00:01:47,960 --> 00:01:51,360 Speaker 1: would have taken an extremely hard line against China. But 27 00:01:51,560 --> 00:01:57,880 Speaker 1: so far, at least rhetorically, he's been fairly conciliatory. Um. 28 00:01:58,200 --> 00:02:01,160 Speaker 1: I guess that's true, but it does feel like it's 29 00:02:01,200 --> 00:02:04,320 Speaker 1: something that's probably going to come. The other thing that 30 00:02:04,440 --> 00:02:07,600 Speaker 1: I find really weird about the whole past few months 31 00:02:07,640 --> 00:02:10,239 Speaker 1: in the market reaction was back in January. In February, 32 00:02:10,360 --> 00:02:14,119 Speaker 1: when we saw large chunks of the Chinese economy shutting 33 00:02:14,160 --> 00:02:17,680 Speaker 1: down because of the coronavirus efforts. It took a really 34 00:02:17,720 --> 00:02:20,760 Speaker 1: long time for the market to react, and it was 35 00:02:20,800 --> 00:02:23,200 Speaker 1: so odd. I think we've had this conversation before, but 36 00:02:23,240 --> 00:02:26,520 Speaker 1: it was so odd because we spent all of nineteen 37 00:02:26,720 --> 00:02:31,000 Speaker 1: worrying about trade war, and then effectively we had something 38 00:02:31,000 --> 00:02:33,000 Speaker 1: that amounted to a similar thing in the form of 39 00:02:33,040 --> 00:02:36,480 Speaker 1: the Chinese economy shutting down, and the market didn't seem 40 00:02:36,480 --> 00:02:40,560 Speaker 1: to care anymore. Right here, we have like the biggest 41 00:02:40,560 --> 00:02:44,720 Speaker 1: supply shock, so to speak, imaginable, this total shut down 42 00:02:44,720 --> 00:02:50,919 Speaker 1: and manufacturing. And I remember like the first real coronavirus 43 00:02:51,000 --> 00:02:53,760 Speaker 1: episode we did, and it was before US markets really 44 00:02:53,800 --> 00:02:58,160 Speaker 1: started crashing. I was with Dan Wang of gav col 45 00:02:58,800 --> 00:03:01,560 Speaker 1: talking about I think it was just after or it 46 00:03:01,639 --> 00:03:05,320 Speaker 1: was the week that Apple warned about the disruptions, and 47 00:03:05,360 --> 00:03:07,600 Speaker 1: that was the first time like US markets like really 48 00:03:07,680 --> 00:03:11,960 Speaker 1: started getting very anxious about this. But the beginning of 49 00:03:11,960 --> 00:03:14,720 Speaker 1: the story was really about sort of like the supply 50 00:03:14,840 --> 00:03:18,720 Speaker 1: side disruptions out of China, because of course, at that point, um, 51 00:03:18,760 --> 00:03:21,120 Speaker 1: I think it was you know, mid or late February, 52 00:03:21,400 --> 00:03:24,520 Speaker 1: there wasn't an appreciation yet in the market of what 53 00:03:24,639 --> 00:03:28,239 Speaker 1: it would do to the economies of the US and Europe, 54 00:03:28,240 --> 00:03:31,600 Speaker 1: which was de facto total shutdown. Yeah, but that was 55 00:03:31,639 --> 00:03:34,840 Speaker 1: another weird thing because people were very focused on the 56 00:03:34,880 --> 00:03:38,040 Speaker 1: supply shock side of it, and there were you know, 57 00:03:38,280 --> 00:03:40,560 Speaker 1: just a handful of people who were really talking about 58 00:03:40,600 --> 00:03:44,440 Speaker 1: the it to demand. And now two months later, it's 59 00:03:44,520 --> 00:03:47,400 Speaker 1: it's pretty clear it's both a demand and a supply shock. 60 00:03:47,800 --> 00:03:50,640 Speaker 1: And the really interesting thing over here in Asia as 61 00:03:50,640 --> 00:03:54,800 Speaker 1: we sort of emerged from lockdown and start to recover 62 00:03:55,360 --> 00:03:58,680 Speaker 1: is that even though manufacturing is getting back up and running, 63 00:03:59,200 --> 00:04:01,400 Speaker 1: a lot of people still learn't in the shop. So 64 00:04:01,520 --> 00:04:04,280 Speaker 1: in China, for instance, you know, the authorities there are 65 00:04:04,320 --> 00:04:07,040 Speaker 1: trying to give out vouchers in order to get people 66 00:04:07,120 --> 00:04:10,040 Speaker 1: to go shopping. Right, So that's the problem. I mean, 67 00:04:10,040 --> 00:04:15,520 Speaker 1: we've seen, perhaps surprisingly the speed with which manufacturing can 68 00:04:15,560 --> 00:04:19,560 Speaker 1: come back online in China, various factories starting off. But 69 00:04:20,279 --> 00:04:21,800 Speaker 1: that doesn't help much if they have no one to 70 00:04:21,800 --> 00:04:26,479 Speaker 1: sell to. Yeah, exactly, Supply and demand shock isn't a 71 00:04:26,520 --> 00:04:30,240 Speaker 1: great thing for the global economy. Indeed. So now anyway 72 00:04:30,360 --> 00:04:34,520 Speaker 1: that the trade war is perhaps starting to re emerge 73 00:04:34,680 --> 00:04:38,240 Speaker 1: as a dimension of the story, I thought it would 74 00:04:38,279 --> 00:04:41,000 Speaker 1: be a good idea to talk about that. And we 75 00:04:41,080 --> 00:04:44,200 Speaker 1: have the perfect guest. I think we've never had him on, 76 00:04:44,279 --> 00:04:47,920 Speaker 1: but he's someone we're both friends with, uh and someone 77 00:04:47,960 --> 00:04:51,520 Speaker 1: who perfectly positioned to speak to the tensions that are 78 00:04:51,600 --> 00:04:56,200 Speaker 1: here and which may be emerging in the months ahead. Great, 79 00:04:56,240 --> 00:04:59,240 Speaker 1: I can't wait, all right, So today we're going to 80 00:04:59,320 --> 00:05:02,839 Speaker 1: be speaking with Matt Klein. He is a calumnist and 81 00:05:02,920 --> 00:05:07,599 Speaker 1: economic columnist at Baron's Magazine, and he is the author 82 00:05:07,600 --> 00:05:11,080 Speaker 1: of a new book called Trade Wars Are Class Wars, 83 00:05:11,360 --> 00:05:14,320 Speaker 1: which he co authored with Michael Pettis, who we have 84 00:05:14,480 --> 00:05:17,880 Speaker 1: had on the show, and uh, he we're going to 85 00:05:17,920 --> 00:05:21,680 Speaker 1: talk about the sort of trade dimensions of this crisis 86 00:05:21,839 --> 00:05:24,440 Speaker 1: and it's aftermath, both in terms of the current sort 87 00:05:24,440 --> 00:05:27,719 Speaker 1: of saber rattling and what it might mean as countries 88 00:05:27,800 --> 00:05:31,679 Speaker 1: really start to attempt to revive their economy. So, Matt, 89 00:05:31,720 --> 00:05:34,480 Speaker 1: thank you very much for joining us. Thank you very 90 00:05:34,560 --> 00:05:38,240 Speaker 1: much for so Matt, before we get started sort of 91 00:05:38,279 --> 00:05:42,200 Speaker 1: like with this crisis specifically, and we've talked about this 92 00:05:42,279 --> 00:05:45,400 Speaker 1: a little bit with your co author on a previous episode, 93 00:05:45,480 --> 00:05:48,800 Speaker 1: Michael Pettis. But what is the core premise of your 94 00:05:48,839 --> 00:05:51,799 Speaker 1: new book when you say trade wars are class wars, 95 00:05:52,000 --> 00:05:54,760 Speaker 1: what is the sort of basic idea there? The basic 96 00:05:54,839 --> 00:05:59,240 Speaker 1: idea is that even though it's very easy to receive 97 00:05:59,360 --> 00:06:04,040 Speaker 1: trade flooks as being between countries, because governments are usually 98 00:06:04,360 --> 00:06:07,159 Speaker 1: actually agents that are aging treade complics with each other, 99 00:06:07,640 --> 00:06:10,760 Speaker 1: and so we therefore conclude that it's about national interests 100 00:06:10,800 --> 00:06:14,040 Speaker 1: and geopolitics and things like that, that actually the drivers 101 00:06:14,080 --> 00:06:18,080 Speaker 1: of trade conflicts are internal class conflicts, and that if 102 00:06:18,120 --> 00:06:24,000 Speaker 1: you have high, well rising inequality, income inequality within a society, 103 00:06:24,360 --> 00:06:27,200 Speaker 1: that's going to end up creating various economic distortions that 104 00:06:27,200 --> 00:06:29,760 Speaker 1: will spill over into the Russian world and end up 105 00:06:29,839 --> 00:06:33,040 Speaker 1: harming people outside of your own national borders. So when 106 00:06:33,040 --> 00:06:35,320 Speaker 1: we think about, for example, the trade complex between China 107 00:06:35,400 --> 00:06:38,039 Speaker 1: United States, it's not so much that Chinese workers and 108 00:06:38,080 --> 00:06:40,719 Speaker 1: American workers are in some zero sum games with gobs 109 00:06:40,760 --> 00:06:43,800 Speaker 1: and incomes. That's actually the opposite, that American workers have 110 00:06:43,839 --> 00:06:47,680 Speaker 1: been harmed by policy in China. That also, aren't we 111 00:06:47,839 --> 00:06:51,920 Speaker 1: primarily in debt harming Chinese workers. So it makes more 112 00:06:51,920 --> 00:06:54,360 Speaker 1: sense to think about this as a class conflict rather 113 00:06:54,440 --> 00:06:57,160 Speaker 1: than a national conflict. So talk to us a bit 114 00:06:57,160 --> 00:06:59,960 Speaker 1: about how you mentioned distortions. But I guess, in other word, 115 00:07:00,240 --> 00:07:03,320 Speaker 1: for those would be imbalances in the global economy, talk 116 00:07:03,360 --> 00:07:06,320 Speaker 1: to us about how those build up and which ones 117 00:07:06,360 --> 00:07:10,320 Speaker 1: are sort of most at play in the current climate. Sure, 118 00:07:10,440 --> 00:07:14,560 Speaker 1: so the imbalances are not necessarily a bad thing, But 119 00:07:14,600 --> 00:07:19,360 Speaker 1: basically it's the society produces goods and services and also 120 00:07:19,520 --> 00:07:22,520 Speaker 1: consumed goods and services, and in a close of comedy 121 00:07:22,560 --> 00:07:26,720 Speaker 1: where there's no trade between societies, the amount of value 122 00:07:26,720 --> 00:07:28,800 Speaker 1: of those goods and services that are produced and consumed 123 00:07:28,800 --> 00:07:31,120 Speaker 1: have to keep the same. If you have trade, though 124 00:07:31,160 --> 00:07:34,000 Speaker 1: you can actually have situations where one society produces more 125 00:07:34,400 --> 00:07:37,920 Speaker 1: than it consumes and use that investment in puts domestically, 126 00:07:38,200 --> 00:07:41,640 Speaker 1: while other and interfore has a circles that sport elsewhere, 127 00:07:41,640 --> 00:07:44,480 Speaker 1: and the other societies of correspondingly that are going to 128 00:07:44,560 --> 00:07:47,360 Speaker 1: end up consuming and investing more of them the people 129 00:07:47,360 --> 00:07:49,680 Speaker 1: are producing, and this can be very beneficial. So we 130 00:07:49,720 --> 00:07:52,240 Speaker 1: talk a fair amount of the book about how historically 131 00:07:52,480 --> 00:07:57,360 Speaker 1: development in terms of industrialization as often dependent on countries 132 00:07:57,400 --> 00:08:01,120 Speaker 1: relying on these sort of circles, was of others in 133 00:08:01,200 --> 00:08:03,920 Speaker 1: order to develop without starving themselves. So this happened in 134 00:08:03,920 --> 00:08:08,720 Speaker 1: the United States, that happening Korea souforea ever since intendance 135 00:08:09,160 --> 00:08:11,880 Speaker 1: um happens orway. And it's not a super well non 136 00:08:11,880 --> 00:08:14,600 Speaker 1: example of the development you no reegion oil and gas 137 00:08:14,640 --> 00:08:18,960 Speaker 1: industry pended on massive amounts of foreign investment or support 138 00:08:18,960 --> 00:08:21,360 Speaker 1: country and can do it themselves. But it can also 139 00:08:21,360 --> 00:08:24,680 Speaker 1: be really problematic if you have a situation where instead 140 00:08:24,680 --> 00:08:29,240 Speaker 1: of imports supplementing domestic production, you have imports and displacing 141 00:08:29,480 --> 00:08:33,559 Speaker 1: domestic production. Uh and instead of you know, disiltating something 142 00:08:33,640 --> 00:08:36,360 Speaker 1: valuable like the development of all shore oil and gas 143 00:08:36,400 --> 00:08:40,319 Speaker 1: that provide income generations. You have instead people using their 144 00:08:40,400 --> 00:08:44,000 Speaker 1: jobs and then forced to borrow to maintain some someone 145 00:08:44,080 --> 00:08:46,439 Speaker 1: of the at that which is what actually happened in 146 00:08:46,480 --> 00:08:48,800 Speaker 1: many parts of the world, particularly United States, over the 147 00:08:48,880 --> 00:08:53,760 Speaker 1: past seple decond So before we get to the current crisis, um, 148 00:08:54,080 --> 00:08:56,280 Speaker 1: just to sort of make it very clear what the 149 00:08:56,559 --> 00:08:59,320 Speaker 1: mechanism that we've been talking about is, talk to us 150 00:08:59,320 --> 00:09:04,760 Speaker 1: about the link between Chinese industrial policy, the repression of 151 00:09:05,000 --> 00:09:08,880 Speaker 1: Chinese workers and Chinese household and Chinese household savings, and 152 00:09:09,040 --> 00:09:13,200 Speaker 1: that how that creates spillovers, specifically that end up harming 153 00:09:13,280 --> 00:09:17,959 Speaker 1: American workers. The basic thing to understand is that you 154 00:09:18,040 --> 00:09:20,440 Speaker 1: can sort of vast over simplify the world. There are 155 00:09:20,480 --> 00:09:25,319 Speaker 1: two types of entities. One is people who if you 156 00:09:25,440 --> 00:09:27,800 Speaker 1: give them a bit of extra income, it's going to 157 00:09:27,880 --> 00:09:31,160 Speaker 1: get spent, most of it's gonna get spent relatively quickly. 158 00:09:31,559 --> 00:09:33,360 Speaker 1: And then their entities where if you give them extra 159 00:09:33,440 --> 00:09:35,600 Speaker 1: income it will not get spm for a large proportion 160 00:09:35,679 --> 00:09:39,280 Speaker 1: of it will not get spent. And what's generally happened 161 00:09:39,320 --> 00:09:42,320 Speaker 1: in China and other countries as well. But what's happened 162 00:09:42,360 --> 00:09:45,760 Speaker 1: is that we've had effectively shift in the distribution of income. 163 00:09:46,160 --> 00:09:49,119 Speaker 1: Some people who would spend most of their money, particularly 164 00:09:49,559 --> 00:09:52,800 Speaker 1: Chinese workers in ordinary savers towards entities that do not, 165 00:09:53,360 --> 00:09:57,720 Speaker 1: whether it's um provincial governments or the rich in China 166 00:09:58,040 --> 00:10:02,240 Speaker 1: or certain kinds of enterprises within China. Uh. And that's 167 00:10:02,320 --> 00:10:05,439 Speaker 1: essentially led to a condition where there's a lot of 168 00:10:06,040 --> 00:10:09,760 Speaker 1: what you know, use the technical term excess saving. So 169 00:10:10,320 --> 00:10:13,240 Speaker 1: if you think of production minus or media consumption as saving, 170 00:10:13,679 --> 00:10:15,760 Speaker 1: then there's a lot more saving than otherwise would be. 171 00:10:16,280 --> 00:10:18,080 Speaker 1: But the clip side of that is simply that regular 172 00:10:18,120 --> 00:10:21,079 Speaker 1: people aren't able to be suit The share of income 173 00:10:21,200 --> 00:10:24,719 Speaker 1: paid to Chinese workers is exceptually well so except that 174 00:10:24,760 --> 00:10:26,640 Speaker 1: we have comfortable data for this, and it's you know, 175 00:10:26,640 --> 00:10:28,079 Speaker 1: a couple of years out of data for the Chinese 176 00:10:28,520 --> 00:10:31,320 Speaker 1: updated and last osage in play sixteen, I don't think 177 00:10:31,320 --> 00:10:37,040 Speaker 1: to change commatical to them about of the value of 178 00:10:37,679 --> 00:10:41,679 Speaker 1: Chinese non financial corporations is paid out to workers now 179 00:10:41,800 --> 00:10:45,960 Speaker 1: for comparisons say in the US and Europe, and it's 180 00:10:46,000 --> 00:10:48,280 Speaker 1: between sort of sixties seventy percent. So there's a real 181 00:10:48,480 --> 00:10:52,240 Speaker 1: big difference between norm and China and the more and 182 00:10:52,360 --> 00:10:53,520 Speaker 1: the rest of the bold. And there are a lot 183 00:10:53,559 --> 00:10:56,480 Speaker 1: of factors that can point through that enable us. For example, 184 00:10:57,160 --> 00:11:01,600 Speaker 1: labor organizing is immediately there's a big wait. A couple 185 00:11:01,679 --> 00:11:03,319 Speaker 1: of years ago, there's a situation where a lot of 186 00:11:03,679 --> 00:11:08,400 Speaker 1: very earnest Chinese college bees top universities were taken seriously 187 00:11:08,480 --> 00:11:11,640 Speaker 1: the guidance of their leaders to study Marxist classics, and 188 00:11:12,360 --> 00:11:15,400 Speaker 1: they realized that they should be making like there's some 189 00:11:15,480 --> 00:11:17,680 Speaker 1: ideological forebears and going on to the factories and trying 190 00:11:17,679 --> 00:11:19,880 Speaker 1: to organize workers, and they all got arrested, uh, and 191 00:11:19,920 --> 00:11:22,520 Speaker 1: then they had the forced apollies. It's actually kind of 192 00:11:22,559 --> 00:11:25,760 Speaker 1: interesting and recording this on May fourth, because that's you know, 193 00:11:26,000 --> 00:11:28,719 Speaker 1: hundred more years ago. May fourth was when you know 194 00:11:28,760 --> 00:11:31,560 Speaker 1: the Chinese comments partis with traces that intellectual antasies them 195 00:11:31,760 --> 00:11:35,280 Speaker 1: because where you had UH university students who are politically 196 00:11:35,320 --> 00:11:37,959 Speaker 1: active and calling for changes and reform. So you know 197 00:11:38,040 --> 00:11:40,800 Speaker 1: the government is very aware of what's going on in 198 00:11:40,840 --> 00:11:42,520 Speaker 1: the campuses and they want to make sure there are 199 00:11:43,000 --> 00:11:46,640 Speaker 1: threatening they're even allionishing workers and students on very private 200 00:11:46,679 --> 00:11:48,679 Speaker 1: in them, and so that's something you saw. There's the 201 00:11:48,760 --> 00:11:52,040 Speaker 1: household registration or Hooko system, which I mean other people 202 00:11:52,040 --> 00:11:53,760 Speaker 1: have read the about the Chinese government says that they 203 00:11:53,800 --> 00:11:55,719 Speaker 1: know that system is a problem, but they don't do 204 00:11:55,800 --> 00:11:57,840 Speaker 1: anything about it. Essentially, but what it is a foreign 205 00:11:57,920 --> 00:12:02,160 Speaker 1: internal population movement controls. It was set up by now 206 00:12:02,520 --> 00:12:05,040 Speaker 1: and is Um and you know in that period, and 207 00:12:05,080 --> 00:12:07,319 Speaker 1: basically it was supposed to keep people in the village 208 00:12:07,320 --> 00:12:09,800 Speaker 1: where they were born and that way to maintain a 209 00:12:09,840 --> 00:12:12,839 Speaker 1: supply agriculturally for things like that, and also usuable to 210 00:12:12,920 --> 00:12:17,400 Speaker 1: discourage revolutionary activity. It's been maintained, it's been loosened since then. 211 00:12:17,480 --> 00:12:20,079 Speaker 1: So you have hundreds of millions of internal migrants going 212 00:12:20,160 --> 00:12:22,880 Speaker 1: from the countryside and the city before, providing a very 213 00:12:23,040 --> 00:12:26,200 Speaker 1: large share of the grog of workforce. But technically speaking, 214 00:12:26,720 --> 00:12:30,440 Speaker 1: they're not really legal residents of the persons by living 215 00:12:30,679 --> 00:12:32,160 Speaker 1: and they don't have access to a lot of the 216 00:12:32,240 --> 00:12:35,120 Speaker 1: benefits that many don't reference have some education, healthcare, to 217 00:12:35,240 --> 00:12:38,520 Speaker 1: do to pay taxes as part of their social security contributions, 218 00:12:38,640 --> 00:12:40,400 Speaker 1: they don't get the benements, and they're always at risk 219 00:12:40,920 --> 00:12:43,000 Speaker 1: in theory of being deported. And you saw this again 220 00:12:43,200 --> 00:12:47,480 Speaker 1: and things is around the twenty team Fromenting where large 221 00:12:47,520 --> 00:12:50,280 Speaker 1: sections of Beijing where a lot of migrant workers lived 222 00:12:50,559 --> 00:12:53,640 Speaker 1: and basically feared out because it supposed to unsand but 223 00:12:53,880 --> 00:12:55,760 Speaker 1: you put this in the context of the local governments 224 00:12:55,760 --> 00:12:58,280 Speaker 1: because such as Beijing and Sean and I saying they 225 00:12:58,320 --> 00:13:00,600 Speaker 1: want to have population tabs, but I think over proud 226 00:13:00,600 --> 00:13:04,920 Speaker 1: of than another benefit locals, And essentially seems with inside China, 227 00:13:05,440 --> 00:13:08,800 Speaker 1: uh you know, immigration restrictionism showing up among different areas 228 00:13:08,800 --> 00:13:11,400 Speaker 1: of country. So that's you know, a new thing, and 229 00:13:11,480 --> 00:13:13,760 Speaker 1: that's something you definitely washed. But the fact that that's 230 00:13:13,800 --> 00:13:17,280 Speaker 1: always a possibility also being deported like that, obviously it's 231 00:13:17,280 --> 00:13:21,840 Speaker 1: gonna underline whatever degreciate how Worfords would have Uh. Yeah, 232 00:13:21,880 --> 00:13:23,160 Speaker 1: And it goes every way too, which is that the 233 00:13:23,200 --> 00:13:24,800 Speaker 1: extent time where you lived in the city you thought 234 00:13:24,840 --> 00:13:27,240 Speaker 1: you had some that then you can always support someone 235 00:13:27,360 --> 00:13:30,440 Speaker 1: from extremely poor village in the western part of the country. 236 00:13:41,080 --> 00:13:44,559 Speaker 1: So when you consider all these sort of restrictions or 237 00:13:44,720 --> 00:13:48,360 Speaker 1: communism with Chinese characteristics, that ends up creating this kind 238 00:13:48,400 --> 00:13:51,120 Speaker 1: of inequality in China. And then you look also at 239 00:13:51,200 --> 00:13:56,680 Speaker 1: the imbalances in the US and inequality there. I guess 240 00:13:56,720 --> 00:13:59,679 Speaker 1: my question is which one of those is a bigger 241 00:13:59,760 --> 00:14:03,599 Speaker 1: problem or which one is the greater contributor to the 242 00:14:03,640 --> 00:14:06,720 Speaker 1: trade tensions that we're currently seeing between the two countries. 243 00:14:07,920 --> 00:14:10,720 Speaker 1: That's a great question, and it's something that we've spent 244 00:14:10,800 --> 00:14:12,240 Speaker 1: a fair amount of time in the book trying to 245 00:14:12,400 --> 00:14:14,600 Speaker 1: address in the chapter that we have on the United States, 246 00:14:14,640 --> 00:14:17,760 Speaker 1: because it's absolutely right the United States not as necessarily 247 00:14:17,800 --> 00:14:20,040 Speaker 1: unequal with China having done at the same level of 248 00:14:20,240 --> 00:14:23,520 Speaker 1: the same amount of change, but it's definitely uh significant. 249 00:14:23,680 --> 00:14:25,360 Speaker 1: So on the one hand, you do have a lot 250 00:14:25,400 --> 00:14:28,480 Speaker 1: of developments in unrests that resemble actually many ways resemble 251 00:14:28,520 --> 00:14:30,560 Speaker 1: hap the journey. So we've made that point explicit in 252 00:14:30,600 --> 00:14:32,520 Speaker 1: the book in terms of, you know, the shift that 253 00:14:32,600 --> 00:14:36,160 Speaker 1: happens are post two thousand thoughts that is partly upset 254 00:14:36,600 --> 00:14:39,040 Speaker 1: by the fact that the United States, like you think 255 00:14:39,120 --> 00:14:42,080 Speaker 1: one is that the United States financial system is very 256 00:14:42,160 --> 00:14:46,520 Speaker 1: open and accommodating of events or desires in the rest 257 00:14:46,520 --> 00:14:51,120 Speaker 1: of the world, and relatively that the consumer market also 258 00:14:51,360 --> 00:14:55,280 Speaker 1: adapts to sort of what you know, accommodate how the 259 00:14:55,320 --> 00:14:58,480 Speaker 1: financial system designs of the thought so and the rest 260 00:14:58,480 --> 00:14:59,960 Speaker 1: of the world, you know, when they know this or 261 00:15:00,160 --> 00:15:03,320 Speaker 1: they're just you know, their preferences. But essentially, if you 262 00:15:03,440 --> 00:15:05,520 Speaker 1: have exces savings and you're in China, a bunch of 263 00:15:05,560 --> 00:15:07,880 Speaker 1: that's going to end up somehow in the United States, 264 00:15:07,920 --> 00:15:10,320 Speaker 1: and that's true globally it will end up being the 265 00:15:10,440 --> 00:15:12,880 Speaker 1: case that the United States served as a sink for 266 00:15:13,000 --> 00:15:14,920 Speaker 1: the western rest of the world. And I think the 267 00:15:15,120 --> 00:15:17,120 Speaker 1: way you see this is the counter like forces. The 268 00:15:17,200 --> 00:15:19,480 Speaker 1: fact that if you look at some of the European 269 00:15:19,560 --> 00:15:22,760 Speaker 1: countries that had the massive woods and crusts in the 270 00:15:22,840 --> 00:15:26,880 Speaker 1: two thousands and essentially driven by trade, essentially what you 271 00:15:26,920 --> 00:15:30,560 Speaker 1: consider trade conflict types of area that similar the US, 272 00:15:31,080 --> 00:15:33,880 Speaker 1: they're actually much larger. And those are places where the 273 00:15:34,240 --> 00:15:38,440 Speaker 1: inequality was most more strained. So some are like Spain Italy, 274 00:15:38,880 --> 00:15:40,800 Speaker 1: you didn't see increase for that, and you didn't see 275 00:15:40,920 --> 00:15:44,320 Speaker 1: the same kind of shift in the Incan distribution before 276 00:15:44,400 --> 00:15:46,280 Speaker 1: the crisis in those places that you did in the 277 00:15:46,360 --> 00:15:50,080 Speaker 1: United States. And yet you saw not Yet perhaps I 278 00:15:50,120 --> 00:15:52,840 Speaker 1: can think of these sort of points of causal length 279 00:15:52,920 --> 00:15:57,040 Speaker 1: that that's why there was commncially bigger shift in their 280 00:15:57,760 --> 00:16:01,040 Speaker 1: international development, because their domestic developers, because they were less 281 00:16:01,120 --> 00:16:05,520 Speaker 1: domestically bounced, they absorbed that in a greater foreign balance. 282 00:16:05,920 --> 00:16:07,320 Speaker 1: And so I think that the US and we sort 283 00:16:07,320 --> 00:16:08,840 Speaker 1: of ended up with the worst of both in many 284 00:16:08,840 --> 00:16:12,240 Speaker 1: ways because we had so much weakness domestically the kind 285 00:16:12,280 --> 00:16:14,600 Speaker 1: of thing that would have led to trade circlusses in 286 00:16:14,920 --> 00:16:18,760 Speaker 1: terms of domestic investment, in government infrastruction, investment, wader growth, 287 00:16:19,040 --> 00:16:21,840 Speaker 1: and yet that didn't even translate in the trade circless 288 00:16:21,880 --> 00:16:26,440 Speaker 1: that legistnancials some that was just bepounded by the increase 289 00:16:26,520 --> 00:16:30,120 Speaker 1: in borrowing from the rest of the world at the 290 00:16:30,200 --> 00:16:33,720 Speaker 1: end of the state. So Matt just just to sort 291 00:16:33,760 --> 00:16:36,760 Speaker 1: of like sort of square the circle here for people 292 00:16:36,800 --> 00:16:40,600 Speaker 1: who haven't thought about it in this respect. If you say, oh, 293 00:16:40,680 --> 00:16:44,240 Speaker 1: the US ends up as a sink for everybody's savings, 294 00:16:44,840 --> 00:16:46,520 Speaker 1: a lot of people listen to that. They're like, oh, 295 00:16:46,720 --> 00:16:48,920 Speaker 1: that sounds like a good thing. People want to recycle 296 00:16:49,040 --> 00:16:50,920 Speaker 1: their extra money in the US. They want to buy 297 00:16:50,960 --> 00:16:54,160 Speaker 1: our debt, they want to invest in assets, And what 298 00:16:54,320 --> 00:16:58,680 Speaker 1: are the real economy random ramifications of a world that 299 00:16:58,880 --> 00:17:01,600 Speaker 1: wants to recycle a texture dollars in too United States? 300 00:17:02,120 --> 00:17:04,000 Speaker 1: So I think the easiest way to look at it 301 00:17:04,200 --> 00:17:09,080 Speaker 1: is the corresponding entry to those financial influence coming to 302 00:17:09,119 --> 00:17:12,600 Speaker 1: the US is that there's also a lot of goods 303 00:17:12,640 --> 00:17:16,000 Speaker 1: and services coming into the US that may be that 304 00:17:16,040 --> 00:17:19,280 Speaker 1: are effectively also excess. So if you take away sort of. 305 00:17:19,359 --> 00:17:20,879 Speaker 1: I mean, it's very useful to look at from the 306 00:17:20,880 --> 00:17:23,960 Speaker 1: perspective financial markets, like this is Financial Markets podcast. But 307 00:17:24,040 --> 00:17:26,200 Speaker 1: if you look at sort of abstracted away from that, 308 00:17:26,400 --> 00:17:30,800 Speaker 1: in a sense of in China and other countries, there 309 00:17:31,160 --> 00:17:34,879 Speaker 1: are more groups and services being produced than absorbed domestically, 310 00:17:35,240 --> 00:17:38,720 Speaker 1: that creates a blot of stuff. In practice, stuff the 311 00:17:38,760 --> 00:17:41,480 Speaker 1: services trade is not a big thing. Stuff like a 312 00:17:41,520 --> 00:17:43,639 Speaker 1: lot of stuff. They're not buying it at home, so 313 00:17:43,800 --> 00:17:46,639 Speaker 1: someone has to buy it, so they're selling it somewhere else. Now, 314 00:17:46,800 --> 00:17:50,200 Speaker 1: if we want more stuff then we are people of producing, 315 00:17:50,960 --> 00:17:53,240 Speaker 1: then that's great for us because then we end up 316 00:17:53,280 --> 00:17:54,959 Speaker 1: with more stuff than we could have had and our 317 00:17:55,000 --> 00:17:57,840 Speaker 1: lives standards are higher. But if instand what actually happens 318 00:17:57,920 --> 00:18:00,560 Speaker 1: is we could have produced that stuff ourselves, but we 319 00:18:00,680 --> 00:18:03,040 Speaker 1: don't because we're getting it from someone else at a 320 00:18:03,240 --> 00:18:08,720 Speaker 1: you know, heavily subsidize discount, then we're worse off. So, 321 00:18:09,000 --> 00:18:10,760 Speaker 1: which is in fact what we've seen in the United 322 00:18:10,760 --> 00:18:15,400 Speaker 1: States in particular, where the capacity utilization of the manufacturing executive, 323 00:18:15,480 --> 00:18:17,399 Speaker 1: which is essentially was telling you how much are the 324 00:18:17,440 --> 00:18:21,080 Speaker 1: factor is actually running the employment data all these things 325 00:18:21,160 --> 00:18:24,080 Speaker 1: that they show is that there were people were producing 326 00:18:24,480 --> 00:18:27,200 Speaker 1: a lot more than your but we ended up just 327 00:18:27,359 --> 00:18:29,639 Speaker 1: using a lot of jobs instead because of God from 328 00:18:29,680 --> 00:18:33,760 Speaker 1: somewhere else. And that was only tenable because there was 329 00:18:33,800 --> 00:18:37,760 Speaker 1: a lot of UH finance money coming in to allow 330 00:18:37,840 --> 00:18:41,160 Speaker 1: people to borrow and spend a difference. But that, of course, 331 00:18:41,160 --> 00:18:43,520 Speaker 1: it's not a sustainable strategy, right, I mean, if you 332 00:18:44,000 --> 00:18:47,359 Speaker 1: lose your job, but then you're able to sort of 333 00:18:47,560 --> 00:18:50,399 Speaker 1: keep on a certain amount of spending because while your 334 00:18:50,440 --> 00:18:52,280 Speaker 1: house has gone up in value and you can get 335 00:18:52,320 --> 00:18:55,840 Speaker 1: a second mortgage, or you have some disability benefits, temperary, 336 00:18:55,880 --> 00:18:58,680 Speaker 1: I mean, that's not really going to be a laung term, 337 00:18:59,280 --> 00:19:02,720 Speaker 1: you know, sustained economic solution for anyone. And that's why 338 00:19:02,760 --> 00:19:05,240 Speaker 1: it's it's so harmful. And when people say, well, we 339 00:19:05,480 --> 00:19:07,879 Speaker 1: the United States benefits from this, if you're very careful, 340 00:19:08,160 --> 00:19:11,960 Speaker 1: who is actually befant, right, So basically that's why Trump 341 00:19:12,000 --> 00:19:14,879 Speaker 1: wont I think it's a contributing factor. I mean, you know, 342 00:19:15,119 --> 00:19:16,560 Speaker 1: we're not like both of the science people, and I 343 00:19:16,560 --> 00:19:17,840 Speaker 1: don't want to get too much in the in the 344 00:19:17,920 --> 00:19:19,520 Speaker 1: leads on that, but I mean there have been people 345 00:19:19,560 --> 00:19:22,680 Speaker 1: who start studied at the margin of workplaces are negatively 346 00:19:22,720 --> 00:19:26,160 Speaker 1: affected in places such as Wisconsin and Nuchigan and Pennsylvania, 347 00:19:26,640 --> 00:19:29,600 Speaker 1: And it looks as if there's a high correlation between 348 00:19:30,040 --> 00:19:33,320 Speaker 1: the change in the share the bookshare of those people 349 00:19:33,640 --> 00:19:36,399 Speaker 1: you know from republic and time and presidential elections, and 350 00:19:36,520 --> 00:19:40,720 Speaker 1: the impact of competition from displacing the subject in Chinese imports. 351 00:19:40,840 --> 00:19:43,720 Speaker 1: So I don't think it's incasonable to say that. So 352 00:19:43,840 --> 00:19:46,840 Speaker 1: you just described your framework for thinking about the global 353 00:19:46,880 --> 00:19:50,440 Speaker 1: economy and how these imbalances are are giving rise to 354 00:19:50,600 --> 00:19:54,399 Speaker 1: trade tensions between countries. Talk to us about how that 355 00:19:54,480 --> 00:19:57,560 Speaker 1: framework actually fits into the current crisis when it comes 356 00:19:57,600 --> 00:20:00,240 Speaker 1: to coronavirus. Joe and I were discussing in the intro 357 00:20:00,359 --> 00:20:02,239 Speaker 1: about how this is probably going to end up being 358 00:20:02,280 --> 00:20:05,480 Speaker 1: a supply and a demand shock. How do you see 359 00:20:05,560 --> 00:20:09,359 Speaker 1: that playing out in your particular framework. So I think 360 00:20:09,400 --> 00:20:11,560 Speaker 1: you've grown up really well earlier Trader when you're talking 361 00:20:11,600 --> 00:20:17,040 Speaker 1: about that manufacturing capacity has been brought back online much 362 00:20:17,119 --> 00:20:20,680 Speaker 1: more quickly than consumption. And this is something that you 363 00:20:20,760 --> 00:20:22,200 Speaker 1: can see in all the data in the in the 364 00:20:22,280 --> 00:20:24,480 Speaker 1: Asian countries that have the virus first and also from 365 00:20:24,560 --> 00:20:27,320 Speaker 1: the control with and I think that that's really just 366 00:20:27,359 --> 00:20:30,000 Speaker 1: going to heighten the trade tensions that were existing before. 367 00:20:30,160 --> 00:20:33,440 Speaker 1: So I remember shortly before I went on you know, 368 00:20:33,520 --> 00:20:35,720 Speaker 1: friendly and sort of stopped paying a close attention to news, 369 00:20:35,800 --> 00:20:37,640 Speaker 1: there was this whole idea that the trade Phase one 370 00:20:37,680 --> 00:20:40,840 Speaker 1: trade deal in the US and China that I thought 371 00:20:40,960 --> 00:20:42,800 Speaker 1: was what wouldn't in fact the grown in the book 372 00:20:42,840 --> 00:20:45,640 Speaker 1: that just beca kind of greed the buy more swordings 373 00:20:45,720 --> 00:20:48,200 Speaker 1: or airplanes whatever. It doesn't not gonna change just underlying 374 00:20:48,280 --> 00:20:51,320 Speaker 1: dynamics here that are creating a trade friction. The thing 375 00:20:51,359 --> 00:20:54,200 Speaker 1: that's gonna make a lot worse is if Chinese consumers 376 00:20:54,520 --> 00:20:57,720 Speaker 1: such as they are probably reduced their spending at least 377 00:20:57,720 --> 00:21:00,159 Speaker 1: for the same period of time, or Chinese manufacturing so 378 00:21:00,200 --> 00:21:02,760 Speaker 1: on going at fulfilled because the Chinese government wants to 379 00:21:02,760 --> 00:21:05,720 Speaker 1: make sure people of jobs, and that's gonna gramatically increase 380 00:21:06,359 --> 00:21:08,600 Speaker 1: any frictions that you have. Not just trying to guess 381 00:21:08,640 --> 00:21:11,320 Speaker 1: when China you're trying and everyone, um, but it's not 382 00:21:11,400 --> 00:21:12,760 Speaker 1: just gonna be trying to I think we're gonna see 383 00:21:12,800 --> 00:21:16,160 Speaker 1: this host of countries because the except that I'm trying 384 00:21:16,160 --> 00:21:20,440 Speaker 1: to understand this stuff like manufacturing jobs is relatively easier 385 00:21:20,840 --> 00:21:23,639 Speaker 1: to make them work under conditions of trying to keep 386 00:21:23,680 --> 00:21:26,040 Speaker 1: people says possible. You can you already used to wring 387 00:21:26,080 --> 00:21:27,879 Speaker 1: protective fear in a lot of these situations. They're not 388 00:21:28,160 --> 00:21:30,000 Speaker 1: usually have a focus, are right next to each other, 389 00:21:30,240 --> 00:21:32,200 Speaker 1: but there are ways of adapting the make it, you know, 390 00:21:32,280 --> 00:21:34,960 Speaker 1: work with the perspective producing th I would expect that 391 00:21:35,040 --> 00:21:37,440 Speaker 1: that's gonna come back and f workly than many other 392 00:21:37,560 --> 00:21:40,080 Speaker 1: sections economy just can't do that. And if that's the case, 393 00:21:40,119 --> 00:21:41,920 Speaker 1: then you're going to have a situation where even the 394 00:21:41,960 --> 00:21:45,400 Speaker 1: manufacturing productions running ninety percent of normal, which is depressionary 395 00:21:45,600 --> 00:21:48,840 Speaker 1: under normal start case, if consumption is seventy percent of normal, 396 00:21:48,840 --> 00:21:51,119 Speaker 1: it's gonna be real empalce and it'll see companies fighting 397 00:21:51,480 --> 00:21:54,760 Speaker 1: for a larger piece of a smaller market share a 398 00:21:54,840 --> 00:21:57,720 Speaker 1: smaller market, and that's gonna basically all the things that 399 00:21:57,760 --> 00:21:59,600 Speaker 1: we that we talked about in the book and much 400 00:21:59,600 --> 00:22:01,959 Speaker 1: more high. We were writing this book in the context 401 00:22:02,040 --> 00:22:06,760 Speaker 1: of relatively good specipical environment with global economy, and there 402 00:22:06,800 --> 00:22:10,399 Speaker 1: were problems in terms of sustainability. There are questions about 403 00:22:10,720 --> 00:22:13,840 Speaker 1: what would happen if there were, you know, downturn in China, 404 00:22:14,000 --> 00:22:16,640 Speaker 1: what would happen if, you know, under certain certain chances 405 00:22:16,720 --> 00:22:18,560 Speaker 1: of Europe. Whatever we were talking about the book that 406 00:22:18,960 --> 00:22:20,680 Speaker 1: we were thinking of sort of downsides and there this 407 00:22:20,760 --> 00:22:23,800 Speaker 1: is much worse. So that suggests that the kinds of 408 00:22:23,960 --> 00:22:26,520 Speaker 1: things are warning about would be just even more extreme. 409 00:22:26,600 --> 00:22:28,399 Speaker 1: And I think that we're gonna I would not be 410 00:22:28,440 --> 00:22:32,560 Speaker 1: surprised if we see a lot more extreme conflict without 411 00:22:32,760 --> 00:22:36,720 Speaker 1: trade as countries trying to preserve jobs that they can 412 00:22:37,280 --> 00:22:39,520 Speaker 1: in an environment with a man is just the last 413 00:22:39,600 --> 00:22:41,240 Speaker 1: and that's going to be I think it's gonna be scary. 414 00:22:41,920 --> 00:22:45,320 Speaker 1: So what does that look like? Specifically? So China tries 415 00:22:45,440 --> 00:22:48,360 Speaker 1: to run its factories full till to keep people employed. 416 00:22:48,880 --> 00:22:53,040 Speaker 1: Vietnam does the same thing. Presumably Germany. They're doing a 417 00:22:53,119 --> 00:22:56,359 Speaker 1: good job of keeping their companies together, keeping their manufacturing going. 418 00:22:56,440 --> 00:22:59,879 Speaker 1: All these manufacturing power houses going to continue to produce. 419 00:23:00,480 --> 00:23:04,520 Speaker 1: Demand is collapsed, particularly in the US, the consumer of 420 00:23:04,640 --> 00:23:07,040 Speaker 1: last resort for much of the world. So then where 421 00:23:07,040 --> 00:23:09,639 Speaker 1: does the rubber meet the road? What's what happens because 422 00:23:09,680 --> 00:23:12,639 Speaker 1: of that? Where does it go next? That's a big question. 423 00:23:12,720 --> 00:23:15,080 Speaker 1: I mean, you know, I don't know really how you 424 00:23:15,119 --> 00:23:16,920 Speaker 1: know how to engage with the U S response fling 425 00:23:16,960 --> 00:23:20,439 Speaker 1: this would be Historically the US has been pretty tolerant. Actually, 426 00:23:20,480 --> 00:23:22,680 Speaker 1: in other countries using the United States sort of as 427 00:23:22,720 --> 00:23:25,960 Speaker 1: a you know, dumping ground or sync or whatever word 428 00:23:26,000 --> 00:23:28,159 Speaker 1: you want to use. Economically, I don't think this. I 429 00:23:28,200 --> 00:23:32,119 Speaker 1: think this circumstances quite different, not just because of who's 430 00:23:32,119 --> 00:23:34,560 Speaker 1: in charge, but also because the manage shop. So I 431 00:23:34,600 --> 00:23:37,080 Speaker 1: think it's really very hard to say how that's gonna 432 00:23:37,080 --> 00:23:39,480 Speaker 1: play out. I mean, I think one would expect that 433 00:23:39,840 --> 00:23:42,760 Speaker 1: to a naively, countries that did a better job containing 434 00:23:42,800 --> 00:23:48,160 Speaker 1: the virus domestically ought to have relatively more resilient summer markets, 435 00:23:48,240 --> 00:23:52,000 Speaker 1: and therefore, if there's foally balancing, it should be such 436 00:23:52,119 --> 00:23:55,720 Speaker 1: that the places that are really relavantly well should actually 437 00:23:55,880 --> 00:23:58,520 Speaker 1: switch you know, either circleces were contracted and even the 438 00:23:58,600 --> 00:24:01,320 Speaker 1: depisode or something, so they would actually be absorbing some 439 00:24:01,440 --> 00:24:04,479 Speaker 1: of the sort of global loss through the trade account. 440 00:24:04,720 --> 00:24:07,800 Speaker 1: So they just will keep producing things, but they important more. 441 00:24:08,240 --> 00:24:10,520 Speaker 1: I sort of don't think that's gonna happen, but it 442 00:24:10,600 --> 00:24:14,200 Speaker 1: doesn't happen, it could be quite pleasant. I mean we're 443 00:24:14,240 --> 00:24:17,040 Speaker 1: also seeing, you know, sort of in the emerging markets, 444 00:24:17,160 --> 00:24:20,440 Speaker 1: there's an interesting situation there where, you know, how like 445 00:24:21,359 --> 00:24:23,000 Speaker 1: trying to say, but there's been a there's a real 446 00:24:23,080 --> 00:24:25,240 Speaker 1: financing shot for a lot of murder more countries they're 447 00:24:25,240 --> 00:24:28,600 Speaker 1: going to access funds just maintain standing. And I guess 448 00:24:28,640 --> 00:24:31,200 Speaker 1: that's importantly you have been reediated. But the extent that 449 00:24:31,280 --> 00:24:34,840 Speaker 1: you have the real financial crunch, and there are certain 450 00:24:34,880 --> 00:24:37,680 Speaker 1: emerging countries that have been providing sort of used to 451 00:24:37,720 --> 00:24:41,240 Speaker 1: global demands to the three places, you know, India, Brazil 452 00:24:41,440 --> 00:24:44,400 Speaker 1: or Turkey or what have you, then that also will 453 00:24:44,440 --> 00:24:47,679 Speaker 1: have an impact elsewhere. I would be astoually see how 454 00:24:47,720 --> 00:24:49,560 Speaker 1: that plays out, and I don't think it'll be here 455 00:24:49,640 --> 00:24:52,600 Speaker 1: for anyone really restoring hold the demands obviously the things 456 00:24:52,600 --> 00:24:54,600 Speaker 1: you should really trying to focus out here, how you 457 00:24:54,880 --> 00:24:57,040 Speaker 1: have the context of the virus that really discourages a 458 00:24:57,160 --> 00:25:01,280 Speaker 1: lot of people from engaging in commerce. I don't so. 459 00:25:01,720 --> 00:25:05,040 Speaker 1: I guess we're talking about these sort of big picture imbalances, 460 00:25:05,200 --> 00:25:08,840 Speaker 1: and one of them, um which comes up throughout your 461 00:25:08,920 --> 00:25:13,000 Speaker 1: entire book, is that under consumption notion. And it feels 462 00:25:13,000 --> 00:25:15,639 Speaker 1: to me like the focus is always on trying to 463 00:25:15,760 --> 00:25:19,880 Speaker 1: get people to spend less and save more, or trying 464 00:25:19,920 --> 00:25:23,520 Speaker 1: to solve those and balances in saving and spending. Do 465 00:25:23,640 --> 00:25:28,040 Speaker 1: people ever talk about just producing less? That's an interesting question. 466 00:25:28,040 --> 00:25:30,560 Speaker 1: I mean, the sertense is sort of something that we're 467 00:25:30,560 --> 00:25:32,680 Speaker 1: a little bit right now, right well, to go back 468 00:25:32,720 --> 00:25:36,159 Speaker 1: and making curries. That was something I was tried. I mean, 469 00:25:36,320 --> 00:25:39,840 Speaker 1: FDR was feeling stuff the ag cultural sector where there's 470 00:25:40,080 --> 00:25:42,840 Speaker 1: but there were farmers things where destroying props and slaughter 471 00:25:42,920 --> 00:25:45,000 Speaker 1: in their animals. And actually we're seeing it now the 472 00:25:45,080 --> 00:25:48,119 Speaker 1: certain extent the meat sector where you can't have farmers 473 00:25:48,160 --> 00:25:52,760 Speaker 1: who can't sells to clients with plans to shut down, 474 00:25:52,880 --> 00:25:56,560 Speaker 1: so they kill their breeding styles. So that's not really 475 00:25:56,880 --> 00:25:58,800 Speaker 1: I would say, from the optimal solution. But yeah, the 476 00:25:58,840 --> 00:26:01,359 Speaker 1: theory producing less good be away of you, you know, 477 00:26:02,840 --> 00:26:05,840 Speaker 1: that spending. I think in general though, I mean I 478 00:26:06,480 --> 00:26:09,440 Speaker 1: sort of would not say that we're in the world, 479 00:26:09,480 --> 00:26:12,000 Speaker 1: would literally everyone has anything you need, and therefore we 480 00:26:12,000 --> 00:26:15,000 Speaker 1: don't mean we're producing more stuff. I think it's the 481 00:26:15,119 --> 00:26:18,359 Speaker 1: question of how do we get the stuff to controduce? 482 00:26:27,240 --> 00:26:32,760 Speaker 1: M Is it possible that China responds to this crisis 483 00:26:33,320 --> 00:26:36,760 Speaker 1: by doing things like building out it's safety net. I mean, 484 00:26:36,800 --> 00:26:39,040 Speaker 1: they've just had the millions of workers are going to 485 00:26:39,119 --> 00:26:43,200 Speaker 1: lose their jobs at least on a temporary basis. Extraordinary shock, 486 00:26:43,320 --> 00:26:47,080 Speaker 1: it's an extraordinary health shock. Is it possible or could 487 00:26:47,119 --> 00:26:50,040 Speaker 1: you see China taking that path of essentially helping to 488 00:26:50,160 --> 00:26:54,720 Speaker 1: build up the the safety net for it's domestic workers, 489 00:26:55,040 --> 00:26:58,480 Speaker 1: which would in theory become at least a marginal source 490 00:26:58,520 --> 00:27:03,960 Speaker 1: of demand, and a four of rectifying some of these imbalances. Yeah, 491 00:27:04,000 --> 00:27:05,800 Speaker 1: that would be great if they did. I'm not going 492 00:27:05,840 --> 00:27:08,680 Speaker 1: to pretend that any deep inside into thinking of the 493 00:27:08,800 --> 00:27:11,720 Speaker 1: Chinese leadership on this, but we actually did see in 494 00:27:11,880 --> 00:27:14,720 Speaker 1: response to thousand eight something along those lines through the 495 00:27:14,760 --> 00:27:18,320 Speaker 1: expansion of healthcare provision in China. And it's not near 496 00:27:18,359 --> 00:27:20,840 Speaker 1: fussal healthcare the way they said, but it's not crazy 497 00:27:20,840 --> 00:27:24,040 Speaker 1: to imagine they would do something similar, especially because even 498 00:27:24,119 --> 00:27:27,640 Speaker 1: if the official unemployment rules are not particularly high, those 499 00:27:27,640 --> 00:27:30,840 Speaker 1: don't account all the minorant workers who force to go 500 00:27:30,960 --> 00:27:33,159 Speaker 1: home and don't have droughts where they live, so the 501 00:27:33,240 --> 00:27:35,840 Speaker 1: real unemployment right and trying to problem much higher. So yeah, 502 00:27:35,920 --> 00:27:38,840 Speaker 1: they were expanding safety and regards some figger income sport, 503 00:27:38,880 --> 00:27:40,680 Speaker 1: that would be fantastic and that would help a lot, 504 00:27:40,760 --> 00:27:43,520 Speaker 1: And I think that definitely would be consistent with things 505 00:27:43,560 --> 00:27:45,240 Speaker 1: in the past that said they want. The question is 506 00:27:45,240 --> 00:27:48,160 Speaker 1: whether they will actually do it. So, Matt, you worked 507 00:27:48,200 --> 00:27:51,639 Speaker 1: with Michael Pettis on this book, and I'm just wondering. 508 00:27:52,000 --> 00:27:55,240 Speaker 1: It's always great having Michael on the al Plots podcast 509 00:27:55,280 --> 00:27:57,160 Speaker 1: and he always comes up with, you know, some interesting 510 00:27:57,240 --> 00:28:00,760 Speaker 1: anecdotes about China in particular. Was there anything that you 511 00:28:00,880 --> 00:28:06,120 Speaker 1: learned about China that sort of surprised you in your research? Oh? Man, uh, yeah, 512 00:28:06,200 --> 00:28:08,320 Speaker 1: Well I actually got to spend about a week and 513 00:28:08,400 --> 00:28:10,920 Speaker 1: a half at his house working on the book, which 514 00:28:11,040 --> 00:28:14,760 Speaker 1: was quite interesting. Yeah, that was that was interesting. I 515 00:28:14,840 --> 00:28:17,440 Speaker 1: got a chance the tour some of the Cusine Invasion. 516 00:28:17,520 --> 00:28:19,240 Speaker 1: You can not get a chance to go here any 517 00:28:19,280 --> 00:28:24,199 Speaker 1: of these bands live, um, China. I guess one thing 518 00:28:24,280 --> 00:28:26,359 Speaker 1: this wasn't Yeah, so this is a bit of an 519 00:28:26,359 --> 00:28:28,800 Speaker 1: older thing. But one thing that I found striking was 520 00:28:29,440 --> 00:28:34,120 Speaker 1: they're kind of digging into the economic issue of China 521 00:28:34,160 --> 00:28:37,680 Speaker 1: in the eighties and how in some ways that was 522 00:28:37,840 --> 00:28:40,680 Speaker 1: really the shift from you know, sort of the now 523 00:28:40,840 --> 00:28:44,320 Speaker 1: era to the initials with late seventies nine naties period, 524 00:28:44,400 --> 00:28:47,480 Speaker 1: because you had a really heavy hand state direction and 525 00:28:47,640 --> 00:28:50,960 Speaker 1: then there was just a sort of generalized and localization 526 00:28:51,200 --> 00:28:54,440 Speaker 1: of policy and not just a liberalization since of not 527 00:28:54,560 --> 00:28:58,880 Speaker 1: letting people do anything, but specifically of trying to shift 528 00:28:59,080 --> 00:29:03,280 Speaker 1: from the industry and the industrial products in the military too. 529 00:29:03,720 --> 00:29:05,719 Speaker 1: Well let's see if like a small former can make 530 00:29:05,760 --> 00:29:09,280 Speaker 1: a better you know, for himself, so self, And that 531 00:29:09,520 --> 00:29:12,560 Speaker 1: was effectively had a redistributional effect. One of the reasons 532 00:29:12,840 --> 00:29:17,120 Speaker 1: so resisted by the transf was precisely because undermined their 533 00:29:17,200 --> 00:29:22,200 Speaker 1: power by diffusing power income across the broader populist And 534 00:29:22,320 --> 00:29:27,080 Speaker 1: then part of the reason that broke apart was that 535 00:29:27,240 --> 00:29:30,880 Speaker 1: if you liberalize the agricultural sector that was the vast 536 00:29:30,920 --> 00:29:33,400 Speaker 1: majority of country at the time and also considered less 537 00:29:33,440 --> 00:29:37,000 Speaker 1: strategic compared to heavy industry. But you don't liberalize the 538 00:29:37,080 --> 00:29:40,160 Speaker 1: same asself the urban economy, you're going to have mismatches 539 00:29:40,600 --> 00:29:44,320 Speaker 1: in prices, were changing changes in prices, and one of 540 00:29:44,360 --> 00:29:47,640 Speaker 1: those was very sharp increasing food prices, well, an urban 541 00:29:47,720 --> 00:29:50,840 Speaker 1: lation by the end of the which led to some 542 00:29:50,960 --> 00:29:55,080 Speaker 1: pretty widespread discontent. And you know, I would not say 543 00:29:55,280 --> 00:29:59,160 Speaker 1: that is what led to the pro democracy protests in 544 00:29:59,240 --> 00:30:02,960 Speaker 1: nine but it was definitely a contributing factor. Um. And 545 00:30:03,080 --> 00:30:05,520 Speaker 1: that's also what people in the government at the time thought. 546 00:30:05,680 --> 00:30:07,760 Speaker 1: They said that there was document and something. You know, 547 00:30:07,840 --> 00:30:10,480 Speaker 1: they've been published since then, which is partly why for 548 00:30:10,600 --> 00:30:13,000 Speaker 1: the Western mine we generally think of canimates who are 549 00:30:13,040 --> 00:30:15,120 Speaker 1: specifically the best of news camera story. It was a 550 00:30:15,120 --> 00:30:17,400 Speaker 1: really striking visual, but it was actually a national movement, 551 00:30:18,280 --> 00:30:21,040 Speaker 1: the pro democracy movement, and it wasn't just students. There 552 00:30:21,120 --> 00:30:24,000 Speaker 1: was students and it was also the urban workers and 553 00:30:24,040 --> 00:30:27,160 Speaker 1: so who were disaffected about variety of that. Both lot 554 00:30:27,160 --> 00:30:29,760 Speaker 1: of the promises between economic promises tied up into back 555 00:30:30,000 --> 00:30:32,000 Speaker 1: which is partly why the governing kind of spredate. And 556 00:30:32,120 --> 00:30:35,280 Speaker 1: one of the leaders of the part Marks move who 557 00:30:35,400 --> 00:30:37,880 Speaker 1: left Holo Kong was was a worker with whom now 558 00:30:37,920 --> 00:30:41,520 Speaker 1: and months of the China Leaguer bothing and uh, you know, 559 00:30:41,600 --> 00:30:43,360 Speaker 1: not college educated at all all, and that I think 560 00:30:43,360 --> 00:30:45,080 Speaker 1: that's why they found it is threatening. If they did, 561 00:30:45,280 --> 00:30:49,479 Speaker 1: that's a particular kind of alliance between workers and students 562 00:30:49,520 --> 00:30:52,160 Speaker 1: that you know, essentially their origin stories. So um, I 563 00:30:52,240 --> 00:30:54,480 Speaker 1: think that's probably a whole sort of narrative. And then 564 00:30:54,560 --> 00:30:56,760 Speaker 1: seeing how that sort of worked over time to a 565 00:30:56,800 --> 00:31:00,160 Speaker 1: degree or new concentration of even though they didn't roll 566 00:31:00,240 --> 00:31:04,000 Speaker 1: back to the sense of well, I want to sure 567 00:31:04,360 --> 00:31:13,200 Speaker 1: hards depending probably interesting thing about China man before we go, 568 00:31:13,320 --> 00:31:16,440 Speaker 1: I want to go back to the sort of existing 569 00:31:17,040 --> 00:31:21,840 Speaker 1: crisis and possible policy responses. What happens you know, there's 570 00:31:21,880 --> 00:31:24,640 Speaker 1: been a lot of talk, particularly because of the US's 571 00:31:24,720 --> 00:31:29,560 Speaker 1: inability to quickly ramp up the production of personal protective 572 00:31:29,640 --> 00:31:34,680 Speaker 1: equipment for doctors and nurses, the difficulty with rolling out 573 00:31:34,720 --> 00:31:37,920 Speaker 1: tests rapidly, sort of a lot of awareness about the 574 00:31:38,040 --> 00:31:41,840 Speaker 1: deficiencies of not having at least certain key things manufactured here. 575 00:31:42,560 --> 00:31:44,640 Speaker 1: We don't know what the future holds, but what if 576 00:31:44,800 --> 00:31:47,880 Speaker 1: the U S sort of takes a turn for like 577 00:31:48,040 --> 00:31:51,520 Speaker 1: a very sort of like self reliant movement where we 578 00:31:51,680 --> 00:31:56,680 Speaker 1: really focus on increasing domestic manufacturing throughout massive tarroffs and 579 00:31:56,880 --> 00:31:59,720 Speaker 1: you know, difficult with the rest of the world. Is 580 00:31:59,800 --> 00:32:02,920 Speaker 1: this a plausible path? Is this something in your view 581 00:32:03,000 --> 00:32:05,640 Speaker 1: that the U S could possibly do? And what kind 582 00:32:05,680 --> 00:32:13,280 Speaker 1: of ramifications could that have? Good question s too. Media thoughts. 583 00:32:13,320 --> 00:32:15,640 Speaker 1: That one is that if anyone, any country in the 584 00:32:15,680 --> 00:32:17,880 Speaker 1: world could do it, it would be the United States, 585 00:32:18,240 --> 00:32:23,160 Speaker 1: because the US is like far the most diversified economy 586 00:32:23,200 --> 00:32:26,560 Speaker 1: in the world. It is large, it is relatively not 587 00:32:26,800 --> 00:32:29,200 Speaker 1: that exposed in ports of exports compared to other in 588 00:32:29,280 --> 00:32:32,440 Speaker 1: madior economies. So if anyone, and of course the US 589 00:32:32,520 --> 00:32:35,640 Speaker 1: is the most tend oft advanced economy in the world. 590 00:32:35,880 --> 00:32:38,000 Speaker 1: The other thought, I have is that in many ways 591 00:32:38,040 --> 00:32:40,360 Speaker 1: would be the turn informed. One of the things we 592 00:32:40,440 --> 00:32:45,120 Speaker 1: talked about in the book is that the original development 593 00:32:45,320 --> 00:32:48,440 Speaker 1: US a factual sector was something that was a state 594 00:32:48,600 --> 00:32:53,600 Speaker 1: led project because George Washington supposedly said, you can't be 595 00:32:53,680 --> 00:32:56,040 Speaker 1: a free country if you're dependent on other people for 596 00:32:56,880 --> 00:32:59,680 Speaker 1: essential supplies, and if the Europeans are going to be unreliable, 597 00:32:59,760 --> 00:33:03,800 Speaker 1: and you know, for thousands of miles anyway, uh, you know, 598 00:33:03,880 --> 00:33:06,040 Speaker 1: we better build up our own man facing face. And 599 00:33:07,000 --> 00:33:08,520 Speaker 1: then the other thing. And then what happened after that 600 00:33:08,680 --> 00:33:11,080 Speaker 1: was sort of events the cover, which is that you 601 00:33:11,200 --> 00:33:15,480 Speaker 1: have decades of war between revolutionary France and England and 602 00:33:15,640 --> 00:33:18,280 Speaker 1: other European powers and so forth, and U as an 603 00:33:18,280 --> 00:33:22,560 Speaker 1: effectively cut off from your anyway the gardens of whether 604 00:33:22,680 --> 00:33:25,200 Speaker 1: we want to because we wanted to be neutral and 605 00:33:25,320 --> 00:33:27,440 Speaker 1: because of blockades and so where there were there really 606 00:33:27,520 --> 00:33:31,320 Speaker 1: wasn't any ability to access those markets, and sort of 607 00:33:31,360 --> 00:33:35,680 Speaker 1: by necessity have this school US manufacturing face developed and 608 00:33:36,120 --> 00:33:39,320 Speaker 1: it was so disignifing. The By the time the pulling 609 00:33:39,360 --> 00:33:42,880 Speaker 1: out of wars finally end, there's real pressure to institute 610 00:33:42,920 --> 00:33:45,720 Speaker 1: protective Paris for the first time extremely high rates to 611 00:33:45,760 --> 00:33:48,520 Speaker 1: make sure that the manufacturing sector that had been created 612 00:33:48,560 --> 00:33:51,560 Speaker 1: doesn't go away, and that ends up being sustained in 613 00:33:51,600 --> 00:33:55,680 Speaker 1: the next under view. So I'm not saying that you 614 00:33:55,720 --> 00:33:57,800 Speaker 1: should do, but it wouldn't be It would definitely be 615 00:33:58,080 --> 00:34:01,040 Speaker 1: in character for an event like this if you just 616 00:34:01,320 --> 00:34:04,640 Speaker 1: use access to supply the force of change, specially by 617 00:34:04,680 --> 00:34:07,080 Speaker 1: the way you're seeing Chinese haven't done that already. The 618 00:34:07,160 --> 00:34:10,040 Speaker 1: Chinese government maybe sure, they don't have to worry about 619 00:34:10,520 --> 00:34:13,320 Speaker 1: U S sanctions that prevent them from getting access to 620 00:34:13,560 --> 00:34:16,480 Speaker 1: high tech electronics and parts and so forth. So it's 621 00:34:16,480 --> 00:34:18,439 Speaker 1: about being self sufficient so they don't have to worry 622 00:34:18,480 --> 00:34:23,600 Speaker 1: about using US. Just sort of a universally understood concept. 623 00:34:24,120 --> 00:34:26,000 Speaker 1: How that goes out right now, I don't know, but 624 00:34:26,440 --> 00:34:30,000 Speaker 1: it wouldn't be surprivately. Uh, Matt Klein is so great 625 00:34:30,040 --> 00:34:31,960 Speaker 1: to talk to you. I feel like we wanted to 626 00:34:32,000 --> 00:34:33,840 Speaker 1: talk to you for a long time and this was 627 00:34:33,920 --> 00:34:37,040 Speaker 1: the perfect time. So Uh, glad it worked out. Thanks 628 00:34:37,080 --> 00:34:48,160 Speaker 1: for coming and congrats on the book, Tracy. I love 629 00:34:48,239 --> 00:34:52,760 Speaker 1: the way Matt and also his co author Michael Pettis, 630 00:34:52,800 --> 00:34:55,680 Speaker 1: who we talked to several months ago. I love their 631 00:34:56,000 --> 00:34:59,400 Speaker 1: narrative and the way they sort of described the relationships 632 00:34:59,520 --> 00:35:02,920 Speaker 1: between the different entities, whether it's the Chinese worker or 633 00:35:02,920 --> 00:35:05,800 Speaker 1: the Chinese e lead class, the US elite, the US worker. 634 00:35:06,280 --> 00:35:09,279 Speaker 1: It's such a more interesting and compelling story than I 635 00:35:09,360 --> 00:35:12,080 Speaker 1: feel like how most people talk about the trade war. 636 00:35:12,320 --> 00:35:15,000 Speaker 1: Oh totally. I think most people just talk about it 637 00:35:15,160 --> 00:35:18,440 Speaker 1: in a sort of you know, mere cantilist terms US 638 00:35:18,600 --> 00:35:23,200 Speaker 1: versus China. But the focus on the intra country imbalances 639 00:35:23,880 --> 00:35:27,080 Speaker 1: is a really really interesting and also compelling framework. And 640 00:35:27,560 --> 00:35:30,879 Speaker 1: the way Matt laid out the sort of um peculiar 641 00:35:31,080 --> 00:35:37,360 Speaker 1: characteristics of the Chinese socialist system, it's really interesting, and 642 00:35:37,440 --> 00:35:39,600 Speaker 1: also the way he compared and contrasted those with the 643 00:35:39,680 --> 00:35:42,600 Speaker 1: US right. I'm always sort of amused to be reminded 644 00:35:42,640 --> 00:35:46,600 Speaker 1: of how unsocialist the Chinese socialist system is that they 645 00:35:46,640 --> 00:35:51,080 Speaker 1: don't have something that resembling universal healthcare that students had 646 00:35:51,120 --> 00:35:54,840 Speaker 1: to apologize for actually studying Karl Marx and attempting to 647 00:35:55,200 --> 00:35:58,480 Speaker 1: apply what some of the old literature said. But it's 648 00:35:58,480 --> 00:36:01,920 Speaker 1: a good reminder of, like there really is a system 649 00:36:02,080 --> 00:36:05,560 Speaker 1: that's designed to sort of push income up into uh 650 00:36:05,960 --> 00:36:08,680 Speaker 1: among to the elite who don't spend as much money 651 00:36:08,880 --> 00:36:12,480 Speaker 1: as the poorer and working class people would if they 652 00:36:12,520 --> 00:36:16,160 Speaker 1: were getting all of their income. Yeah, absolutely, And again 653 00:36:16,600 --> 00:36:19,120 Speaker 1: Matt and Michael have sort of published lists at exactly 654 00:36:19,160 --> 00:36:22,640 Speaker 1: the right time because you can see all those imbalances 655 00:36:23,040 --> 00:36:25,759 Speaker 1: and social works are are going to start playing out 656 00:36:25,840 --> 00:36:28,440 Speaker 1: in the current crisis. And again one of the big 657 00:36:28,480 --> 00:36:30,840 Speaker 1: ones is of course the notion of the Chinese savings 658 00:36:30,880 --> 00:36:34,640 Speaker 1: squat uh and after the coronavirus. You can't really sive 659 00:36:34,800 --> 00:36:38,239 Speaker 1: that coming down very much, but no, you can't. And 660 00:36:38,320 --> 00:36:40,600 Speaker 1: also it raises the questions, you know, just from a 661 00:36:40,680 --> 00:36:43,839 Speaker 1: market perspective too, because a lot of the people are 662 00:36:43,880 --> 00:36:45,760 Speaker 1: sure trying to figure out, Okay, what is a return 663 00:36:45,840 --> 00:36:48,480 Speaker 1: to normal. Look like, there's the health return to normal, 664 00:36:48,520 --> 00:36:51,160 Speaker 1: will people go out? Then there's the question of how 665 00:36:51,280 --> 00:36:55,279 Speaker 1: much demand will there be domestically for various services that 666 00:36:55,360 --> 00:36:58,319 Speaker 1: have been forth to shut down restaurants and so forth. 667 00:36:58,800 --> 00:37:01,920 Speaker 1: But what happens also if demand doesn't you know, go 668 00:37:02,040 --> 00:37:05,279 Speaker 1: back to which it probably won't. Meanwhile, you have this 669 00:37:05,520 --> 00:37:10,280 Speaker 1: huge glut of supply of goods coming from a Chinese 670 00:37:10,360 --> 00:37:13,239 Speaker 1: manufacturing sector that's trying to keep everyone employed. Like it 671 00:37:13,400 --> 00:37:16,760 Speaker 1: just feels like the sort of aftershocks of this crisis 672 00:37:16,840 --> 00:37:19,160 Speaker 1: are going to be with us for a long time. Yeah. 673 00:37:19,400 --> 00:37:22,920 Speaker 1: In other words, many Odd Thoughts episodes to come on 674 00:37:23,040 --> 00:37:26,719 Speaker 1: this topic. I think I think you're right, all right. 675 00:37:27,400 --> 00:37:30,440 Speaker 1: This has been another episode of the Odd Thoughts podcast. 676 00:37:30,520 --> 00:37:33,040 Speaker 1: I'm Tracy Halloway. You can follow me on Twitter at 677 00:37:33,080 --> 00:37:36,840 Speaker 1: Tracy Halloway and I'm Joe Wisn't Though. You can follow 678 00:37:36,920 --> 00:37:39,920 Speaker 1: me on Twitter at the Stalwart, and you should follow 679 00:37:39,960 --> 00:37:42,840 Speaker 1: our guest on Twitter, Matt Klein. He's the author of 680 00:37:43,120 --> 00:37:45,880 Speaker 1: Trade Wars Are Class Wars. Check it out. His handle 681 00:37:46,120 --> 00:37:49,719 Speaker 1: is at mc klein, and be sure to follow our 682 00:37:49,760 --> 00:37:53,240 Speaker 1: producer on Twitter, Laura Carlson. She's at Laura M. Carlson. 683 00:37:53,560 --> 00:37:57,280 Speaker 1: The Bloomberg head of podcast Francesca Levi at Francesca Today, 684 00:37:57,800 --> 00:38:00,239 Speaker 1: and check out all of our podcasts at bloom Burg 685 00:38:00,800 --> 00:38:03,480 Speaker 1: under the handle at podcasts. Thanks for listening.