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Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast presented by BED three

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Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.

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Speaker 1: I am Chad Milman of the Action Network. I am

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Speaker 1: Lie from my Tommy John home studio, which is actually

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Speaker 1: my studio in a hotel in Philadelphia. I'm joined as

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Speaker 1: always by my co host, my companion, MIKEA and Padre

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Speaker 1: and my bff professional Better Simon Hunter and O Simon Chad.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to the birthplace of freedom, Philadelphia.

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Speaker 1: I'm feeling very free. It is a beautiful, beautiful day

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Speaker 1: in Philadelphia. Always worry when you're doing these live events,

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Speaker 1: and we have our live event at the Wicked Wolf

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Speaker 1: and Center City in Simon's hometown. You always worry, like

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Speaker 1: isn't going to be raining and does that keep people

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Speaker 1: from getting to the polls or in the case to

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Speaker 1: the Wicked Wolf. We are going to gather with friends.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna do a live show. We're going to watch

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Speaker 1: the Niners cover the two and a half against the Rams.

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Speaker 1: That number is already up to three. We're gonna bet

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Speaker 1: Bet three sixty five boosts along with us. More on

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Speaker 1: that in a minute. Today is our NFL Week fifteen

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Speaker 1: Best Bets Episodes. Simon and I will narrow down our

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Speaker 1: five our five favorite picks to put into the Favorites

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Speaker 1: one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football Pick Them contest presented

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Speaker 1: by Bet three six y five sign Up now Favorites

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Speaker 1: dot Actionnetwork dot Com. We'll get into the Foxhoil. We'll

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Speaker 1: give out our Tommy John Big Balls bet of the Week.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna discuss Simon's the biggest bets. We'll get to

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Speaker 1: our boosted money line, Underdog Parlay, the Underdog Round Robin,

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Speaker 1: and so much more. Bets are rolling in, lines are moving.

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Speaker 1: It has been a weird week with lines going up

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Speaker 1: and down, and up and down and up and down,

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Speaker 1: some crossing key numbers. Decisions need to be made. As

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Speaker 1: our volume podcast, Boss Colin Cowhurt likes to say there's

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Speaker 1: a sea of money out there. As a reminder, the

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Speaker 1: Favorite Podcast is presented by Bet three sixty five and

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Speaker 1: used on spreads, totals, player props, futures, and more. Whatever

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Speaker 1: the moment. It's never ordinary. At bet three sixty five

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Speaker 1: must be twenty one or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,

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Speaker 1: North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen and

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Speaker 1: older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler

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Speaker 1: or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa terms, conditioned

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Speaker 1: restrictions apply. All right, it's Thursday, as always Thursdays during

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Speaker 1: the season. We'd like to hear how the wise guys

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Speaker 1: are responding to our Tuesday conversation. That's how influential we are.

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Speaker 1: The lines move based on our conversations, and the pros

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Speaker 1: feel compelled to weigh in on our opinions. Simon, let's

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Speaker 1: do sharp calls.

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Speaker 2: Hello, who's there, I'm talking Rain.

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Speaker 1: Rain telephone range. Somebody said, maybe what.

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Speaker 3: You do man?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, started a Thursday game. We've seen this number move right.

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Speaker 2: We both liked forty nine ers at two and a half.

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Speaker 2: Now most books are showing three. It's still taking at three,

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Speaker 2: but obviously you want the best of the number, so

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Speaker 2: shop right if you find it two and a half,

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Speaker 2: because that is the professional Sorry, now I don't know

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Speaker 2: may to any pros taking it at minus three. I

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Speaker 2: know plenty that are hammering this two and a half. Beside,

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Speaker 2: we're not on a lot of pros I've talked to.

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Speaker 2: They like Miami. Maybe it's a game you want to discuss.

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Speaker 2: We can just keep it moving. But I think they

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Speaker 2: view it of this Houston teams. I was still a

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Speaker 2: little overrated that Miami is not as bad as we perceive.

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Speaker 2: It's a nice spot to back this Miami team, I

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Speaker 2: guess in their perspective. So that's one that wasn't really

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Speaker 2: onder my radar. I was shocked here so many guys

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Speaker 2: like that. Side another game maybe will end up as

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Speaker 2: our one of our five. A lot of the pros

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Speaker 2: love this Jags and I were just like we did

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Speaker 2: a three and a half, and it really is all

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Speaker 2: about this Jets team getting too much respect. And I

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Speaker 2: thought it was gonna be a lot of professionals on

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Speaker 2: the Jets once again, but it seems like it was

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Speaker 2: just like a small group playing the number at two

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Speaker 2: and a half three on that Jets side, and most

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Speaker 2: pros aligned with our view of it, taking the Jags

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Speaker 2: of three and a half. It's just really about two

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Speaker 2: bad teams and one of them is getting over a

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Speaker 2: field goal that just to me feels pretty easy to

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Speaker 2: take that bad side a game that you know, we've

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Speaker 2: talked a lot about. I know that we like Pittsburgh.

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Speaker 2: Every probably've talked to you Chat is on this Eagles team.

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Speaker 2: So that's one maybe to dive into. Yeah, it's it's

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Speaker 2: a really shaped up to be a pros versus Joe's

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Speaker 2: kind of game. And see there's a couple of pros

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Speaker 2: out there that they've taken the Pittsburgh side. But yeah,

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Speaker 2: right now, Chat, it looks like we are the Joe

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Speaker 2: public side in that Pittsburgh Eagles game. Another one we

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Speaker 2: love that. You know, we've kind of lose hesitant, I

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Speaker 2: guess on Tuesday, But the more I've looked into it,

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Speaker 2: it feels like it's a good spot. This Colts number.

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Speaker 2: We've seen it come down to four and a half.

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Speaker 2: Some books now are three and a half. That's one

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Speaker 2: we'll definitely have to dive into track because I love

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Speaker 2: the professionals, love the Colts Tampa. I really love this side.

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Speaker 2: It's more split that I thought it was gonna be.

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Speaker 2: There's some professionals that really like the Chargers. Once again,

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Speaker 2: it's all about the number. I know some pros I've

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Speaker 2: taken the charge at two and a half, but people

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Speaker 2: like me have bet heavier on the other side of

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Speaker 2: Tampa plus three. So that's that's been a really interesting

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Speaker 2: back and forth. I'm actually on the wrong side of

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Speaker 2: this one, apparently. I like Green Bay minus two and

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Speaker 2: a half. Talked a lot of pros who like the Seahawks.

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Speaker 2: I feel like I'm dugging. They're dug in. They believe

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Speaker 2: in the Seahawks defense, and I believe in just that

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Speaker 2: the Green Bay is just one of the better teams

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Speaker 2: running the NFC. Play against a Seahawks team that feels

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Speaker 2: like they've caught teams in the right moments and they're

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Speaker 2: kind of been punching above their weight that they're a

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Speaker 2: little overrated, overinflated right now. So I'm excited to hear

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Speaker 2: your opinion on that now that we sit here on Thursday,

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Speaker 2: and the last one, me and Chad we talked about Detroit.

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Speaker 2: It was minus one and a half on the show.

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Speaker 2: We humbly try not to say it's just because they'll

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Speaker 2: show this number move, but we saw it happen in

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Speaker 2: real time. We gave it out and all of a

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Speaker 2: sudden it was two and a half by the time

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Speaker 2: we were closing the show, So not that shocking the public,

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Speaker 2: and a couple of professionals have lined up on the

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Speaker 2: bill side when it gets to two and a half

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Speaker 2: and f three. I know plenty of pros that love

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Speaker 2: this Lions team, especially when it touches too. So yeah,

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Speaker 2: there's other games we haven't touched on just because the

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Speaker 2: number of lines moved so much, but those are the

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Speaker 2: ones that really jumped out and me a lot of

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Speaker 2: noise between those that obviously the most talked about games

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Speaker 2: right now, especially you know, I was with five professionals

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Speaker 2: last night. Everyone had a really strong opinion either on

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Speaker 2: the Eagles game. We're on this line's bills game. So yeah,

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Speaker 2: really fun week breaking these all down.

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Speaker 1: Oh that's awesome. I'm so glad to hear it. The

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Speaker 1: one quibble I have with you is I feel like

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Speaker 1: we talked a lot about Miami. I was like I

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Speaker 1: wanted to like Houston, and the more I dug into it,

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Speaker 1: the more I liked Miami. I have it on our

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Speaker 1: list to discuss today, so we're definitely gonna get into

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Speaker 1: that one. Don't don't forget, folks, if you're listening to

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Speaker 1: this live. Tonight is our free favorite podcast watch party

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Speaker 1: at Wicked Wolf in Center City, Philly. I'm in Philly already.

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Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell is in Philly already. Simon, of course, is

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Speaker 1: just outside Philly and on his way in later today

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Speaker 1: seven pm. I'm gonna watch the Thursday night football game

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Speaker 1: between the Rams and the Niners. If you're watching live

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Speaker 1: and you're in the area, come on by. There's time

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Speaker 1: to RSVP. You got RSVP if you're listening to the

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Speaker 1: podcast version. We had a blast. It was so much fun.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's get rolling Dallas, Carolina, Carolina. Look, Carolina

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Speaker 1: is at two and a half right now at bet

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Speaker 1: three sixty five. It's at three at a lot of places.

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Speaker 1: So this was on the list as if we have to,

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Speaker 1: we're gonna bet it. I pulled the trigger. I bet

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Speaker 1: the Panthers at two and a half. It's kind of

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Speaker 1: remarkable to say this, Simon, Do we think the value

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Speaker 1: is lost on the Panther right now as favorites, Like

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Speaker 1: is it just gone?

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Speaker 2: Yeah? And this is a game that feels like the

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Speaker 2: professionals better earlier in the week and then they're not

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Speaker 2: so much betting at this point. Right when Carolina was

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Speaker 2: a dog or they opened up minus one, that's when

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Speaker 2: we saw a lot of the money coming. Like last night,

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Speaker 2: a lot of the guys I was talking to, they're

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Speaker 2: just not interested in it just because of all the

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Speaker 2: line movement, and it's it's getting to the point, like

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Speaker 2: we talked about where I might have to bet the

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Speaker 2: Cowboys because like you just said, the line might move

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Speaker 2: too much, and eventually if it does stay at three

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Speaker 2: and gets up to three and a half, that's where

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Speaker 2: the value would be. But at two and a half, Tat,

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Speaker 2: I can't fault you for taking the pack Anthers like

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Speaker 2: this feels like it should be three. Want to be

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Speaker 2: shocked in the lands right on three. I mean, these

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Speaker 2: are just two bad teams, right and one team is

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Speaker 2: really banged up in the Cowboys. On the flip side,

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Speaker 2: we've seen this Panthers team be a totally different team

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Speaker 2: since their bye week, and they've really turned things around.

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Speaker 2: And like you said, eventually the luck of all the

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Speaker 2: you know, Bryce Young thrown off his back foot, perfect

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Speaker 2: dimes drop into the corner. It is gonna run out

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Speaker 2: like it's just he's been playing so above his head.

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Speaker 2: Right now that everyone's turned right, everyone I talk to

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Speaker 2: now is back in on Bryce Shung this Panthers team.

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Speaker 2: So you're right for feeling like it might be the

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Speaker 2: time to jump off. I just view it as I

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Speaker 2: don't know, it feels like there's still valuing this Panthers team,

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Speaker 2: just because I do view them as the better team

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Speaker 2: and they are at home against the Cowboys team that

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Speaker 2: we've seen has struggled on the road. So yeah, it's

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Speaker 2: it's a tricky number chat because it's it has moved

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Speaker 2: so much. So it's just when I've just avoided altogether.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't think we'll get into the contest because

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Speaker 1: I think in the contest it'll be at two and

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Speaker 1: a half. Like you and I, we both like to

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Speaker 1: not look at the numbers until after the Thursday show,

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Speaker 1: just so we're not cheating a little bit in the contest.

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Speaker 1: We like to do it at the end of this program,

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Speaker 1: so I haven't seen the way it's been sitting at

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Speaker 1: two and a half all week. At bet three six five,

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Speaker 1: the Panthers will be at two and a half in

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Speaker 1: the contest, so we'll have to see. Like with the

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Speaker 1: rest of the games we're talking about, I felt pretty

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Speaker 1: confident about five we could get to without the Panthers,

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Speaker 1: but after hearing sharp calls, I wonder if we're going

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Speaker 1: to be able to do that. So right now it's

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Speaker 1: on the outside looking in. I would say there are

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Speaker 1: probably three games that are waffling between that two and

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Speaker 1: a half and three this week that we're going to

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Speaker 1: talk about. This is one of them that if it's

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Speaker 1: a two and a half, we like one side, if

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Speaker 1: it's a three, we like the other. So I'm excited

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Speaker 1: to dig into those as well. Cleveland at Kansas City

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Speaker 1: Cleveland right now at bet three sixty five is plus five.

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Speaker 1: There are a smattering of four and a half's out there.

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Speaker 1: Don't forget this was at six and a half on

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Speaker 1: Sunday night when we first flagged it. I went back,

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Speaker 1: I listened, I looked at our notes from Tuesday. I

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Speaker 1: think we were being cowardly hoping we could avoid this game.

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Speaker 1: I actually put in my notes we both said we

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Speaker 1: wanted to avoid this game given how snake bit we

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Speaker 1: were last week when we had the Browns and we

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Speaker 1: had the Chiefs and neither went our way. But how

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Speaker 1: are we like not ignoring the teams here and just

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Speaker 1: playing the number. If you look back at that Browns

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Speaker 1: game and Nick Giffin, doctor Nick with the luck rankings,

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Speaker 1: had a analysis of the Browns in that Steelers game

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Speaker 1: and showed how it's beyond and like bad luck, what

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Speaker 1: happened in that game, and how they should have covered.

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Speaker 1: I feel like we have to be taking the Browns here.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. I don't voulch for that. I mean, we did

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Speaker 2: talk about it. If it's pretty simple, and at this point,

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Speaker 2: if it's above three right against my home, yeah you

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Speaker 2: should just fade them. But that's just my issue here, chat.

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Speaker 2: It's just too easy. And I guess that's just me

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Speaker 2: something that's done this a long time that usually when

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Speaker 2: it's too easy, it's not as is perceived, and we

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Speaker 2: can have all the unlucky stats in the world, it

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Speaker 2: doesn't account for jamis like that's the issue with that metric.

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Speaker 2: It's like, were they unlucky against Denver or is that

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Speaker 2: just the full James experience, like him throwing that pick

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Speaker 2: once again after drove the field and we're on the

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Speaker 2: four four yard line, and like last week he talked

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Speaker 2: about that turner rehad kind of killed the game right

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Speaker 2: the pick to the defensive lineman. So that's my hesitation

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Speaker 2: here is just there's other dogs. I feel like I

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Speaker 2: have a better read on that can be more consistent,

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Speaker 2: and I trust the number more. Then we play this

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Speaker 2: number and neither of us to be shipped. Would be

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Speaker 2: surprised if the Chiefs defense just completely dominate to destroys

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Speaker 2: this Browns offense. The reason I want to join you

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Speaker 2: on the Browns just because of what we talked about.

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Speaker 2: That D line against the Chiefs offensive line, that should

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Speaker 2: be a huge matchup for that Browns team. Like Miles Garrett,

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Speaker 2: even with all of his injuries, should be able to

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Speaker 2: get to the quarterback just about any time he won,

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Speaker 2: especially if they're doing what Andy Reid's been doing, which

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Speaker 2: is not leaving tight ends in the block, Like even

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Speaker 2: last week, they knew that guy was struggling that tackle,

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Speaker 2: and it's like Andy Reid wasn't leaving anyone in the chip.

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Speaker 2: He doesn't have the running back chip on that side either.

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Speaker 2: It was like they're trying to run their same old

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Speaker 2: offense where they just can't. Like it just is not

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Speaker 2: the same offense as they've been a run before. So

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Speaker 2: I'm with you, Chad. It's like, if we had to

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Speaker 2: for Saint Cleveland, I could get behind it. It's just

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Speaker 2: it makes me uneasy because of the Winston effect. It's

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Speaker 2: just been as fun as it's been bettering on him.

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Speaker 2: It's been obviously a terrible experience these last couple of weeks.

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Speaker 1: Well, look we got we got to win for all

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Speaker 1: the Jamis reasons. Throw in two pick sixes and by

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Speaker 1: the way, the pick at the end of the game,

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Speaker 1: which would have allowed him to get into the back door.

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Speaker 1: And then we lost with Jamis when there was a

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Speaker 1: turnover by Jamis with three minutes you know, a little

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Speaker 1: more than four minutes left in the game before the

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Speaker 1: Canarius Tony fumble on the punt where they were driving

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Speaker 1: on the Steelers thirty five yard line and they were

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Speaker 1: down twenty seven to fourteen, and Jamis turnover. Here's what

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Speaker 1: I would say. Number One Your point about the offensive

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Speaker 1: line for the Chiefs is massive. They did a terrible

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Speaker 1: job defending against the Chargers defensive line, and the Chargers

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Speaker 1: defensive line is not even close to as good as

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Speaker 1: the Browns defensive line. Right, the Browns lead the league

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Speaker 1: in pressure rate going against then no line. They cannot

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Speaker 1: protect Patrick Mahomes for an extended period. We've seen it

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Speaker 1: week after week after a week. Whether it's Wanya Morris,

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Speaker 1: DJ Humphries, it doesn't matter who's on the edge at

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Speaker 1: left tackle. They have to change their offense. You're right,

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Speaker 1: they're not bringing anyone into Chip instead and Reid is

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Speaker 1: just deciding we're gonna throw the ball in under half

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Speaker 1: a second. Right, it's gonna be two step drop five seconds.

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Speaker 1: We're done, and so or not five seconds like two

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Speaker 1: step drop half a second point five seconds, we're done.

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Speaker 1: Get the ball out. So that's number one. The Chiefs

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Speaker 1: defensive backfield, by the way, literally signing guys off the street.

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Speaker 1: Steven Nelson, who they drafted in twenty fifteen, played a

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Speaker 1: few years with them and retired, was just signed to

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Speaker 1: the Chiefs practice squad because they have no defensive backs.

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Speaker 1: Andy Reid's comment when he was signed. This was great.

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Speaker 1: He was a good player when he was here. He

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Speaker 1: hasn't been there in like five years, So I don't

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Speaker 1: think the Chiefs can cover an anybody. And if they

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Speaker 1: can't cover anybody, then Spagnola can't blitz the way he

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Speaker 1: likes to blitz because he doesn't have any help in

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Speaker 1: the back end of the defense. So I know it's

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Speaker 1: all it doesn't matter, it's all up to Jamis.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, will he throwed.

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Speaker 1: That stupid pick? But like matchup wise, number wise, it's great,

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Speaker 1: Browns are decided right, But you're right, we're betting on Jay.

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Speaker 1: At the end of the day, it's James. It's Jamis.

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Speaker 1: What are you gonna do? So Miami at Houston? Like

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Speaker 1: we discussed it on Tuesday for a while. So like.

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Speaker 2: Because me personally, it's not all about you, Chav. I

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Speaker 2: was just talking to me personally, not having a read

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Speaker 2: on it.

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Speaker 1: Wait, what do you mean are you're acting like.

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Speaker 2: I like dismissed that we never talked about it. I

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Speaker 2: was just more of the viewpoint of I just don't

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Speaker 2: have a read on it, Like I wanted to be

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Speaker 2: on Houston, But it seems like most professional I've talked to,

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Speaker 2: they like Miami. So it's just it's one of those

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Speaker 2: times I can avoid. I would avoid.

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Speaker 1: I'm like a professional, and I wanted to be on

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Speaker 1: Houston too, and then I did my research and realize,

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Speaker 1: oh my god, I might have to be on Miami.

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Speaker 1: That's what I do. Simon, what a missing?

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Speaker 2: What's your research saying about Miami?

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Speaker 1: My research about Miami is saying that they're actually better

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Speaker 1: in the red zone than we think offensively, they're better

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Speaker 1: defensively in the red zone than we think, and that

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Speaker 1: this is probably a pretty good matchup for them if

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Speaker 1: the number is at three. At two and a half,

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Speaker 1: we probably like the Texans at three, I lean Dolphins.

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Speaker 1: I have not bet it. I don't want to put

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Speaker 1: it in the contest. I was really thinking this would

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Speaker 1: auto This was going to be an auto play for

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Speaker 1: me on the Texans coming off of by as healthy

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Speaker 1: as they've been all season. But I still can't get

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Speaker 1: there because I think the Dolphins are better than we think.

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Speaker 2: All right, I agree, then I would take Miami, but

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Speaker 2: obviously we're never going to get the number we won.

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Speaker 2: If it was three and a half in contest, I

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Speaker 2: would love it. It's going to be two and a half.

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Speaker 2: All the books are showing it's in between two and

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Speaker 2: a half and three. So yeah, it looks like it's

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Speaker 2: a game.

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Speaker 1: We'll just avoid zero edge at three. That's what I

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Speaker 1: I wrote in my notes. Dude, we're heading into a

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Speaker 1: live event and you and I right now we're mind melding.

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Speaker 1: That's what's happening Cincinnati at Tennessee. I left this on

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Speaker 1: We don't have to get into it. I really only

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Speaker 1: left it on the list because I want to see

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Speaker 1: if there were any sharp calls about it. Because we

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Speaker 1: talked about Tennessee being the right side. The number feels

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Speaker 1: a little bit too high. Cincinnati's basically a one dimensional

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Speaker 1: team right now. The problem is the Titans might not

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Speaker 1: have any dimensions. So I just like we can skip it.

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Speaker 1: We're not going to put in the contest. I only

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Speaker 1: want to talk about it if there was significant sharp

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Speaker 1: money coming in on the Titans. Are you hearing anything?

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Speaker 1: Has anything happened in your research the past forty eight

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Speaker 1: hours to put you on the Titans?

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Speaker 3: Uh?

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Speaker 2: I mean we talked like we're being the Titans just

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Speaker 2: because of the number, and it's a nice spot to

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Speaker 2: back the book like this is a game. The books

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Speaker 2: are going to need and you know, obviously hasn't worked

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Speaker 2: out totally this year, but historically that's the exact why

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Speaker 2: you want to be on and from my view of

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Speaker 2: like the professionals, I like this side. It's really about

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Speaker 2: something we've talked about just that, oh why and with

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Speaker 2: Joe Burrow and the fact that you know, the strength

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Speaker 2: of Tennessee is up the middle, so that means he'll

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Speaker 2: be having pressure right in his lap, which we've seen

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Speaker 2: him struggle with right and obviously this season he's putting

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Speaker 2: on one of the best performance he's ever seen by

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Speaker 2: a quarterbacks. So they've navigated all that pressure not just

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Speaker 2: from the side up the middle, and he's found made

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Speaker 2: a way to make it work. But you know, like

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Speaker 2: we talked about, we want to take it just because

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Speaker 2: of this number. And it feels like Cincinnati got away

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Speaker 2: with one last week, right like that was an incredibly

390
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Speaker 2: lucky When we've been we've been behind those lucky covers,

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Speaker 2: that was an incredibly lucky cover by that Cincinnati team.

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Speaker 2: So it just feels like my most pros view, we'd

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Speaker 2: viewed the same way. It's an overinflated line should be

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Speaker 2: three three and a half you're getting five. Good luck

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Speaker 2: if you're back and well, it's just it's a tough

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Speaker 2: spot and tough number to be in.

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Speaker 1: Well, back in will Levis at five actually feels scarier

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Speaker 1: than back in Jamis four and a half because at

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Speaker 1: least Jamis, we know, can get the ball down the

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Speaker 1: field and he will be able to find open receivers

401
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Speaker 1: and score touchdowns. I don't know if Will Levis can

402
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Speaker 1: do that.

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Speaker 2: Now we're down ten with Jamis, I have some confidence

404
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Speaker 2: and one down ten with will Levis. No, okay, yeah,

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Speaker 2: it's exactly, it's over.

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Speaker 1: It's a dead bet. Ye dead bet. So I didn't

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Speaker 1: put this in the in the script, but you mentioned

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Speaker 1: in order this would be where it is. You mentioned

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Speaker 1: the Jags at plus three and a half. Yeah, you know,

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Speaker 1: I'm surprised there's that much activity from professional betters on

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Speaker 1: the Jags at three and a half. Like there's, like

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Speaker 1: we said on Tuesday, lame duck coach versus an interim coach,

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Speaker 1: a backup quarterback who's not very good coming off asters win,

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Speaker 1: and over the hill quarterback who's not as good as

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Speaker 1: he used to be coming off a preposterous loss. I

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Speaker 1: guess the hook is what hooked people.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and I'm also just a believer in that this

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Speaker 2: team has been the Jaguars again. It's all when you

419
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Speaker 2: get to this time of year, you're looking for a

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Speaker 2: bunch of the stuff. But I really do like to

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Speaker 2: focus on home and away splits. They're just some teams

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Speaker 2: that perform well at home and some that do not.

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Speaker 2: And we've seen this season this Jaguars team, whether it's

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Speaker 2: Trevor Lawrence or so far Mac Jones, they have played

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Speaker 2: better when they're at home. And you know, earlier in

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Speaker 2: the year, they played green Bay. That was a game

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Speaker 2: I famously made us bet Chad was cating me for

428
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Speaker 2: because Green Bay was out playing Jacksonville all the way

429
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Speaker 2: to the very end. I got really lucky the running

430
00:21:50,760 --> 00:21:53,360
Speaker 2: back laid down at the one yard line. Green Bay

431
00:21:53,400 --> 00:21:55,520
Speaker 2: wins thirty to twenty seven. We cover that three and

432
00:21:55,560 --> 00:22:00,359
Speaker 2: a half. Minnesota went down at Jacksonville, right, that was

433
00:22:00,400 --> 00:22:03,800
Speaker 2: one of the ugest, hoppiest games you've ever seen. Jacks

434
00:22:03,800 --> 00:22:06,040
Speaker 2: covered that game. They lost twelve to seven, like another

435
00:22:06,119 --> 00:22:08,880
Speaker 2: weird game that they somehow covered. Then they obviously got

436
00:22:08,960 --> 00:22:11,439
Speaker 2: rolled at Detroit. We all remember. But then they went

437
00:22:11,480 --> 00:22:13,040
Speaker 2: on their bye week and we've seen that since their

438
00:22:13,080 --> 00:22:16,680
Speaker 2: bye week. They played Houston at home. They lost twenty

439
00:22:16,680 --> 00:22:19,040
Speaker 2: three to twenty a nice. Once again, me and Chow

440
00:22:19,040 --> 00:22:21,320
Speaker 2: we all on that number. We covered the back door

441
00:22:21,359 --> 00:22:23,359
Speaker 2: the three and a half, and then last week, like

442
00:22:23,400 --> 00:22:26,160
Speaker 2: we already talked about, they were down six nothing head

443
00:22:26,160 --> 00:22:29,080
Speaker 2: into the fourth quarter, the kick a field goal, end

444
00:22:29,160 --> 00:22:31,119
Speaker 2: up getting a touchdown. They win ten to six with

445
00:22:31,200 --> 00:22:34,040
Speaker 2: mac Jones. So it's it's a team that, as much

446
00:22:34,080 --> 00:22:36,200
Speaker 2: as you want to say it's a lame duck coach

447
00:22:36,240 --> 00:22:38,600
Speaker 2: and that it's a team that's given up, they're clearly

448
00:22:38,600 --> 00:22:41,000
Speaker 2: still playing hard and putting it all together. And it's

449
00:22:41,040 --> 00:22:43,480
Speaker 2: clearly a team that the market is still not valued,

450
00:22:43,560 --> 00:22:45,639
Speaker 2: right right. I mean it's back to back weeks now,

451
00:22:45,680 --> 00:22:49,000
Speaker 2: they've been three and a half, and to me, that's

452
00:22:49,040 --> 00:22:51,640
Speaker 2: my view of it. Of it feels like once again

453
00:22:51,680 --> 00:22:54,520
Speaker 2: the Jets are being a little overvalued. I get it.

454
00:22:54,560 --> 00:22:57,359
Speaker 2: Aaron Rodgers did look better last week, but like we

455
00:22:57,480 --> 00:23:01,080
Speaker 2: talked about, he's been incredibly inconsistent and maybe they did

456
00:23:01,160 --> 00:23:02,920
Speaker 2: find something. Chat I'm about to get burned here by

457
00:23:02,920 --> 00:23:05,480
Speaker 2: backing this Jaguars team, but to me, it just feels

458
00:23:05,480 --> 00:23:09,119
Speaker 2: like I'm playing the number where It's like, why would

459
00:23:09,119 --> 00:23:11,119
Speaker 2: the Jags not win this game out right? Why is

460
00:23:11,160 --> 00:23:13,560
Speaker 2: this not closer to a pick? These are very evenly

461
00:23:13,600 --> 00:23:15,800
Speaker 2: matched teams, especially when you add in the mix that

462
00:23:16,960 --> 00:23:20,639
Speaker 2: you know MATC. Jones. We've seen it now back to

463
00:23:20,720 --> 00:23:22,800
Speaker 2: back weeks. He finds something lay in the games and

464
00:23:22,840 --> 00:23:25,200
Speaker 2: he can turn it on. This is a Jets defense

465
00:23:25,240 --> 00:23:27,480
Speaker 2: that can be passed on, like it's not this Juggernaut

466
00:23:27,560 --> 00:23:30,439
Speaker 2: get good stops kind of defense. So that's just my

467
00:23:30,520 --> 00:23:32,119
Speaker 2: view of a chat. It's really about playing the numbering

468
00:23:32,280 --> 00:23:34,560
Speaker 2: just that it feels like, once again, this Jets team's

469
00:23:34,560 --> 00:23:37,000
Speaker 2: over valid, especially the fact that they're coming off a cover.

470
00:23:37,320 --> 00:23:38,920
Speaker 2: Were a lot of better. So we've just seen it,

471
00:23:38,960 --> 00:23:41,320
Speaker 2: especially in the Action app. All the money, all the

472
00:23:41,320 --> 00:23:43,800
Speaker 2: tickets right now feels are on the Jets, and a

473
00:23:43,840 --> 00:23:45,720
Speaker 2: couple of books have moved it from three and a

474
00:23:45,720 --> 00:23:48,320
Speaker 2: half down to three just to protect against a lot

475
00:23:48,320 --> 00:23:50,479
Speaker 2: of professional money coming on the Jaguar side.

476
00:23:51,040 --> 00:23:53,400
Speaker 1: All right, So I'm leaving it on the list right now.

477
00:23:53,440 --> 00:23:57,680
Speaker 1: Our list of five includes Cleveland at four and a

478
00:23:57,720 --> 00:23:59,920
Speaker 1: half and the Jags at three and a half. We're

479
00:24:00,080 --> 00:24:01,880
Speaker 1: going to get to a streak of games where it's

480
00:24:01,880 --> 00:24:04,960
Speaker 1: gonna be the ones that we really feel strongly about.

481
00:24:05,320 --> 00:24:09,880
Speaker 1: But as usual, we're starting off scary. Speaking of scary,

482
00:24:10,119 --> 00:24:13,320
Speaker 1: I'm just saying this game. We have no intention of

483
00:24:13,320 --> 00:24:15,679
Speaker 1: putting it in the contest, but the New York Giants

484
00:24:15,720 --> 00:24:20,080
Speaker 1: are now sixteen and a half point home underdogs against

485
00:24:20,080 --> 00:24:22,960
Speaker 1: the Ravens. I just put this one on the list

486
00:24:23,359 --> 00:24:27,960
Speaker 1: because the number has gotten so outrageous. This has to

487
00:24:28,000 --> 00:24:32,639
Speaker 1: be a wise guy play at this number. There's like

488
00:24:33,320 --> 00:24:36,399
Speaker 1: the last two examples of a sixteen from Evan, The

489
00:24:36,480 --> 00:24:41,359
Speaker 1: last two examples of a sixteen plus point dog have

490
00:24:41,480 --> 00:24:45,359
Speaker 1: all been the Giants, once in twenty twenty three at

491
00:24:45,400 --> 00:24:47,720
Speaker 1: the Cowboys, once in twenty twenty two at the Eagles.

492
00:24:48,720 --> 00:24:52,880
Speaker 1: Sixteen plus point dogs fourteen to twelve against the spread

493
00:24:54,240 --> 00:24:59,159
Speaker 1: since twenty eighteen, so you know, it's plus money a

494
00:24:59,240 --> 00:25:02,960
Speaker 1: little bit. The last time there was a plus sixteen

495
00:25:03,040 --> 00:25:06,680
Speaker 1: point dog at home, we mentioned this on Tuesday Jags

496
00:25:06,760 --> 00:25:10,160
Speaker 1: versus the Bills in twenty two. The Jags won nine six.

497
00:25:10,200 --> 00:25:12,760
Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell remembers it well, he did not get to

498
00:25:12,800 --> 00:25:20,600
Speaker 1: eat wings with surgical gloves that day. But since nineteen

499
00:25:20,720 --> 00:25:27,240
Speaker 1: ninety it's happened eleven times. Sixteen plus point dogs are

500
00:25:27,320 --> 00:25:31,520
Speaker 1: only five and six against spread, So now Tommy DeVito

501
00:25:31,560 --> 00:25:37,560
Speaker 1: is a quarterback, it doesn't feel like an auto play anymore.

502
00:25:38,840 --> 00:25:39,879
Speaker 1: But tell me if I'm wrong.

503
00:25:40,840 --> 00:25:42,679
Speaker 2: No, I think your view of it is correct. The

504
00:25:42,720 --> 00:25:45,800
Speaker 2: since that the Ravens secondary makes it that you want

505
00:25:45,800 --> 00:25:49,159
Speaker 2: to bet this number because they have been backdoored and

506
00:25:49,200 --> 00:25:53,320
Speaker 2: they are struggling against the past, and I totally get

507
00:25:53,320 --> 00:25:56,400
Speaker 2: you're coming from. It's it's tempting. That's why they made

508
00:25:56,400 --> 00:25:58,879
Speaker 2: this number so big. That's that's what they're doing here.

509
00:25:58,880 --> 00:26:01,840
Speaker 2: They're trying to suck o us in. So I'm doing

510
00:26:01,880 --> 00:26:03,359
Speaker 2: my best not to bet it because I'm trying to

511
00:26:03,359 --> 00:26:06,719
Speaker 2: be patient. Hope this gets the seventeen, because you're right

512
00:26:06,800 --> 00:26:08,520
Speaker 2: right now it's at sixteen six and a half, which

513
00:26:08,560 --> 00:26:10,600
Speaker 2: is like, might as well be a dead number. It's

514
00:26:11,080 --> 00:26:13,560
Speaker 2: the mathematical odds of it landing on sixteen are so small.

515
00:26:13,640 --> 00:26:17,200
Speaker 2: So yeah, it's I get where you're coming from. Maybe

516
00:26:17,240 --> 00:26:20,520
Speaker 2: we'll be kicking ourselves when it's they're down eight, driving

517
00:26:20,560 --> 00:26:22,000
Speaker 2: with the ball at the end of the fourth quarter

518
00:26:22,000 --> 00:26:23,679
Speaker 2: against the Ravens and it's like, how do we not

519
00:26:23,800 --> 00:26:25,280
Speaker 2: take this? There was no doubt they were going to

520
00:26:25,320 --> 00:26:27,480
Speaker 2: somehow cover this huge number. It just moves too much

521
00:26:28,040 --> 00:26:30,520
Speaker 2: at this point. But yeah, as you sit here right now,

522
00:26:30,520 --> 00:26:33,280
Speaker 2: I don't. I haven't taken a position on it. I

523
00:26:33,280 --> 00:26:35,160
Speaker 2: got a real fill for it. I know some pros

524
00:26:35,160 --> 00:26:37,119
Speaker 2: who have bet and it's just it's the exact same

525
00:26:37,200 --> 00:26:39,680
Speaker 2: view of chat of just this number is too big

526
00:26:39,720 --> 00:26:43,520
Speaker 2: for a team that isn't a top three, top four

527
00:26:43,560 --> 00:26:45,480
Speaker 2: team right now in the NFL, in this Ravens team,

528
00:26:45,480 --> 00:26:47,720
Speaker 2: like they're just not the team of the past. So

529
00:26:48,040 --> 00:26:49,480
Speaker 2: I totally get your perspective.

530
00:26:49,960 --> 00:26:52,640
Speaker 1: You also just wonder is there a little bit of pride?

531
00:26:52,720 --> 00:26:56,199
Speaker 1: We know the players know the spreads. We know that

532
00:26:56,280 --> 00:27:00,960
Speaker 1: the Giants are looking at this thinking we're nearly seventeen

533
00:27:01,160 --> 00:27:06,320
Speaker 1: point underdogs at home, as bad as Tommy DeVito is,

534
00:27:06,840 --> 00:27:11,119
Speaker 1: as much as that defensive line might struggle without the

535
00:27:12,200 --> 00:27:17,520
Speaker 1: best player in the middle of the line. Like, that's

536
00:27:17,600 --> 00:27:22,040
Speaker 1: a huge, huge number. Bookmakers have always told me, like

537
00:27:22,720 --> 00:27:27,439
Speaker 1: you basically two x the NFL spread to get to

538
00:27:27,440 --> 00:27:29,919
Speaker 1: what it would be in college. If so, if this

539
00:27:30,119 --> 00:27:33,800
Speaker 1: was a college number, it would be thirty four, right,

540
00:27:34,359 --> 00:27:37,200
Speaker 1: that would be what the spread is. That's a massive

541
00:27:37,560 --> 00:27:44,439
Speaker 1: that's a Alabama versus you know, Eastern Carolina State University

542
00:27:44,480 --> 00:27:49,840
Speaker 1: of Technology. Number these are NFL players still like that,

543
00:27:50,320 --> 00:27:53,240
Speaker 1: just it defies logic to me. If we get it

544
00:27:53,280 --> 00:27:55,359
Speaker 1: at seventeen, we're not gonna get in the contest. But

545
00:27:55,640 --> 00:27:57,679
Speaker 1: if it gets to seventeen, I'm gonna be looking for

546
00:27:57,760 --> 00:27:59,640
Speaker 1: this to put a little bit of piece of action

547
00:27:59,760 --> 00:28:03,240
Speaker 1: on Sunday morning. That's That's what I'll be doing, Sir,

548
00:28:04,280 --> 00:28:06,520
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, Simon. I feel like this is going

549
00:28:06,600 --> 00:28:09,919
Speaker 1: to have to be our foxhole. H Well, look, you

550
00:28:09,960 --> 00:28:12,400
Speaker 1: and I were waffling about this one on Tuesday. It's

551
00:28:12,440 --> 00:28:14,760
Speaker 1: come down from five and a half to five, and

552
00:28:14,840 --> 00:28:17,040
Speaker 1: like I know, it's a tricky one. I know the

553
00:28:17,080 --> 00:28:20,919
Speaker 1: reasons why we hesitated a little bit, like with the

554
00:28:20,960 --> 00:28:25,080
Speaker 1: Panthers last week, are because of the Eagles defensive line

555
00:28:25,440 --> 00:28:30,120
Speaker 1: and their elite rushing game and their secondary is very good.

556
00:28:30,760 --> 00:28:35,119
Speaker 1: But I think there's real And you came at me

557
00:28:35,160 --> 00:28:37,840
Speaker 1: a little bit and try to tell me that Jalen

558
00:28:37,880 --> 00:28:40,800
Speaker 1: Hurts is similar to Josh Allen. But there's real issues

559
00:28:40,840 --> 00:28:45,200
Speaker 1: with this Eagles passing game. They are running the ball

560
00:28:46,000 --> 00:28:50,840
Speaker 1: more than they are passing the ball, which is well,

561
00:28:50,840 --> 00:28:52,440
Speaker 1: why are you laughing at that?

562
00:28:52,560 --> 00:28:54,320
Speaker 2: Because I don't know why that's an issue and you

563
00:28:54,320 --> 00:28:57,360
Speaker 2: have Sae Kwon Barkley and it's not it's.

564
00:28:57,200 --> 00:28:59,200
Speaker 1: Not an issue. But if you can't pass the ball

565
00:29:00,080 --> 00:29:04,960
Speaker 1: and it's hard to win against good defenses.

566
00:29:04,480 --> 00:29:08,239
Speaker 2: You know what the definition of say what do you

567
00:29:08,240 --> 00:29:12,280
Speaker 2: know what the definition of cant is what? I don't know.

568
00:29:12,440 --> 00:29:14,280
Speaker 2: You're definitely using it wrong. Though you just said they

569
00:29:14,280 --> 00:29:15,120
Speaker 2: can't throw the ball.

570
00:29:15,200 --> 00:29:20,360
Speaker 1: They can't not as well, they can't throw the ball.

571
00:29:20,400 --> 00:29:21,800
Speaker 2: I just think the hate's gone too far.

572
00:29:22,000 --> 00:29:23,480
Speaker 1: Don't try to get English on me.

573
00:29:23,760 --> 00:29:25,920
Speaker 2: Well, it's just what are you talking about. You're just

574
00:29:25,960 --> 00:29:28,800
Speaker 2: you're a crazy person. It's yeah, they can throw the

575
00:29:28,800 --> 00:29:30,520
Speaker 2: ball if they need to. They're just a run first

576
00:29:30,520 --> 00:29:33,200
Speaker 2: team right now. I just you saw, like the fans

577
00:29:33,200 --> 00:29:35,000
Speaker 2: in Philadelphia, It's like, what do you guys want? You

578
00:29:35,080 --> 00:29:36,720
Speaker 2: want to throw for four undred yards and lose to

579
00:29:36,720 --> 00:29:39,560
Speaker 2: the PA right now. I don't get it. I don't

580
00:29:39,560 --> 00:29:42,320
Speaker 2: get it what people want. So I'm happy AJ was

581
00:29:42,320 --> 00:29:45,240
Speaker 2: able to laugh at Off. It's just again I was

582
00:29:45,240 --> 00:29:47,280
Speaker 2: worrying in the sense of, like, yes, no one wants

583
00:29:47,320 --> 00:29:50,120
Speaker 2: their star receiver in their quarterback hating each other and

584
00:29:50,200 --> 00:29:52,560
Speaker 2: being and you know, having beef. But it seemed like

585
00:29:52,640 --> 00:29:54,479
Speaker 2: they both were able to talk about where it's like

586
00:29:55,680 --> 00:29:58,440
Speaker 2: we both know that, you know, the passing game did

587
00:29:58,480 --> 00:29:59,960
Speaker 2: struggle last year and that was part of the reason

588
00:30:00,040 --> 00:30:02,320
Speaker 2: in the class the collapse did happen. I think that's

589
00:30:02,360 --> 00:30:04,920
Speaker 2: what AG is talking about. It's like that we need

590
00:30:04,960 --> 00:30:07,080
Speaker 2: to get this on point head into the playoffs because

591
00:30:07,080 --> 00:30:09,360
Speaker 2: it's we're not gonna just run the ball three times

592
00:30:09,400 --> 00:30:13,080
Speaker 2: against these you know, really good teams. But I don't know,

593
00:30:13,080 --> 00:30:15,120
Speaker 2: I have faith in Hurts. It's just like, yeah, you

594
00:30:15,200 --> 00:30:17,760
Speaker 2: played well. No, but if they come out here and

595
00:30:17,800 --> 00:30:20,600
Speaker 2: they beat Pittsburgh by two touchdowns and he throws for

596
00:30:21,040 --> 00:30:24,400
Speaker 2: two fifty and two touchdowns, it's like, are all their

597
00:30:24,440 --> 00:30:26,719
Speaker 2: problems solved? I don't think so. Like, I don't think

598
00:30:26,760 --> 00:30:28,320
Speaker 2: this is something they can just correct in a week

599
00:30:28,400 --> 00:30:31,680
Speaker 2: or two. That's going on with Hurts, right, It's like, yes.

600
00:30:31,800 --> 00:30:34,760
Speaker 2: The biggest issue again was AJ was open downfield in

601
00:30:34,760 --> 00:30:37,680
Speaker 2: the first quarter. Hurts clearly missed him on which had

602
00:30:37,680 --> 00:30:40,520
Speaker 2: been an easy touchdown for AJ, and for the rest

603
00:30:40,520 --> 00:30:42,920
Speaker 2: of the game. AJ was a little pissy, bitchy mood

604
00:30:42,960 --> 00:30:44,680
Speaker 2: the rest of the game because of that one play,

605
00:30:44,800 --> 00:30:47,800
Speaker 2: and then obviously got interviewed after the game immediately said

606
00:30:47,800 --> 00:30:50,120
Speaker 2: something you shouldn't have said, Sam, go over to Brander Graham.

607
00:30:50,240 --> 00:30:53,560
Speaker 2: So the professionals I talked to, while they like the

608
00:30:53,600 --> 00:30:56,080
Speaker 2: Eagles series, they just think this line should be closer

609
00:30:56,120 --> 00:30:58,920
Speaker 2: to six and a half seven because of that Panthers game.

610
00:30:59,040 --> 00:31:01,680
Speaker 2: You're getting it five five and a half lower number

611
00:31:01,720 --> 00:31:04,360
Speaker 2: on this Eagles game. And I just I have a

612
00:31:04,400 --> 00:31:06,400
Speaker 2: hard time making the number that big. Like we already

613
00:31:06,400 --> 00:31:09,400
Speaker 2: talked about chat, I just think Pittsburgh is underrated here.

614
00:31:10,240 --> 00:31:13,040
Speaker 2: The number feels too big. I'll be a sucker with you.

615
00:31:13,120 --> 00:31:15,600
Speaker 2: I'll buy this Pittsburgh one and just I'll ride the

616
00:31:15,600 --> 00:31:19,080
Speaker 2: Tomlin spot. But it's like every pro I know they

617
00:31:19,280 --> 00:31:21,720
Speaker 2: like this other side. They like the Eagles side just

618
00:31:21,760 --> 00:31:24,840
Speaker 2: because they like this matchup for them. And obviously we

619
00:31:24,880 --> 00:31:27,000
Speaker 2: don't even talked about Pickings not playing this game is

620
00:31:27,000 --> 00:31:32,000
Speaker 2: a big deal for Pittsburgh offense. And you know, as

621
00:31:32,040 --> 00:31:33,920
Speaker 2: much you want to say Cleveland has a good defense,

622
00:31:34,640 --> 00:31:36,720
Speaker 2: they don't compare this Eagles team. Right, Eagles are in

623
00:31:36,760 --> 00:31:39,360
Speaker 2: the top three and almost every metric that Cleveland team

624
00:31:39,400 --> 00:31:41,320
Speaker 2: is not that same defense from the year before. That's

625
00:31:41,320 --> 00:31:43,360
Speaker 2: why you know Rusk could get away with throwing deep

626
00:31:43,400 --> 00:31:45,640
Speaker 2: balls to Mike Williams and get away the last week

627
00:31:45,720 --> 00:31:48,280
Speaker 2: that maybe we're gonna get caught here, Chad, But I'm

628
00:31:48,320 --> 00:31:49,880
Speaker 2: with you. It feels like we're walking to a trap.

629
00:31:49,880 --> 00:31:51,719
Speaker 2: But it's like I can't avoid it. My model likes

630
00:31:51,760 --> 00:31:54,800
Speaker 2: the number. I like the number. I'm happy to go

631
00:31:54,840 --> 00:31:56,680
Speaker 2: against the professionals with you, it just feels like it's

632
00:31:56,680 --> 00:31:59,240
Speaker 2: too inflated. This game will come down to a field goal,

633
00:31:59,280 --> 00:32:02,200
Speaker 2: which once again Pittsburgh has a huge advantage that they

634
00:32:02,200 --> 00:32:04,640
Speaker 2: have the much better kicker right now in this matchup.

635
00:32:04,800 --> 00:32:07,400
Speaker 2: So it's tough chat. It feels like I'm missing something here,

636
00:32:07,440 --> 00:32:09,240
Speaker 2: but I can't help it. It's it's such a big

637
00:32:09,320 --> 00:32:10,760
Speaker 2: number for this Pittsburgh team.

638
00:32:11,240 --> 00:32:14,120
Speaker 1: We're in the Foxhil with the Pittsburgh Steelers, all.

639
00:32:14,080 --> 00:32:16,760
Speaker 2: Right, I'm a Foxhoil God. We're gonna unleash he out

640
00:32:16,760 --> 00:32:18,720
Speaker 2: here in December because that's what's required.

641
00:32:18,960 --> 00:32:22,880
Speaker 1: My point with the Eagles is really it unless we

642
00:32:22,960 --> 00:32:28,720
Speaker 1: believe the Eagles can completely change their game plan to

643
00:32:29,360 --> 00:32:33,640
Speaker 1: prove to themselves that AJ and Jalen hurts and this

644
00:32:33,760 --> 00:32:36,840
Speaker 1: passing game is fine, and they're going to stop relying

645
00:32:36,840 --> 00:32:41,680
Speaker 1: on Saquon Barkley for a game. Don't we have to

646
00:32:41,720 --> 00:32:44,200
Speaker 1: believe that this will be a run heavy game that

647
00:32:44,240 --> 00:32:45,960
Speaker 1: gives the Steelers a chance to keep it close.

648
00:32:46,200 --> 00:32:46,320
Speaker 2: Right.

649
00:32:46,520 --> 00:32:49,440
Speaker 1: That's that's what I believe more than anything. Whether or

650
00:32:49,480 --> 00:32:52,960
Speaker 1: not I believe or you believe, or anyone believes in

651
00:32:53,080 --> 00:32:55,040
Speaker 1: Jalen Hurts in the passing game and their ability to

652
00:32:55,080 --> 00:32:57,320
Speaker 1: throw the ball, that's not who they are. They're a

653
00:32:57,400 --> 00:32:59,800
Speaker 1: run first team because they have Saquon Barkley and they're

654
00:32:59,800 --> 00:33:03,040
Speaker 1: off line is amazing, and their defensive line is amazing,

655
00:33:03,320 --> 00:33:06,480
Speaker 1: and they make it difficult on other teams because of

656
00:33:06,520 --> 00:33:10,760
Speaker 1: their pressure and because of their defensive backfield. So this

657
00:33:11,200 --> 00:33:15,080
Speaker 1: should play out as a low scoring game where the

658
00:33:15,120 --> 00:33:17,720
Speaker 1: clock bleeds and both teams are trying to run the ball,

659
00:33:18,200 --> 00:33:21,160
Speaker 1: and that would play into the favor of the Steelers

660
00:33:21,200 --> 00:33:24,120
Speaker 1: covering five or five and a half, which is probably

661
00:33:24,160 --> 00:33:25,520
Speaker 1: we're probably going to get five and a half in

662
00:33:25,520 --> 00:33:28,960
Speaker 1: the contest. So we're together on this. We might be

663
00:33:29,000 --> 00:33:32,360
Speaker 1: coming at it from opposite sides, but we are together

664
00:33:32,440 --> 00:33:34,080
Speaker 1: on this, and that's really all that matters. Because when

665
00:33:34,080 --> 00:33:36,840
Speaker 1: you're in a foxhole, you got to believe, and you

666
00:33:36,960 --> 00:33:38,920
Speaker 1: got to be campadres, and you got to know that

667
00:33:38,960 --> 00:33:41,040
Speaker 1: it's you against the world. And I think that's how

668
00:33:41,080 --> 00:33:43,360
Speaker 1: you and I are feeling right now, even if even

669
00:33:43,400 --> 00:33:44,680
Speaker 1: if this feels tense.

670
00:33:45,920 --> 00:33:48,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, time of that is just I don't trust the number,

671
00:33:48,560 --> 00:33:50,520
Speaker 2: and that's what I'm worried about it. There's something I

672
00:33:50,600 --> 00:33:53,920
Speaker 2: must be missing here because I just will never understand

673
00:33:53,920 --> 00:33:56,040
Speaker 2: why the books hung this number so high. I'll never

674
00:33:56,160 --> 00:33:57,760
Speaker 2: make sense why this wasn't three and a half. So

675
00:33:58,000 --> 00:34:00,360
Speaker 2: makes no sense. It will make sense once on Sunday

676
00:34:00,400 --> 00:34:01,080
Speaker 2: we lose by a.

677
00:34:01,040 --> 00:34:04,120
Speaker 1: Touchdown one hundred, and we're going to be disappointed and

678
00:34:04,120 --> 00:34:05,600
Speaker 1: I'm gonna sit on my couch and I'm going to

679
00:34:05,680 --> 00:34:07,560
Speaker 1: be like, why did we do this? But at least

680
00:34:07,560 --> 00:34:09,239
Speaker 1: I'm going to know that you were with it. I

681
00:34:09,239 --> 00:34:11,840
Speaker 1: didn't like I didn't try to talk you into it,

682
00:34:11,880 --> 00:34:16,120
Speaker 1: So I'm not gonna feel good. No way, no way,

683
00:34:16,239 --> 00:34:17,840
Speaker 1: you fully came around.

684
00:34:18,440 --> 00:34:20,440
Speaker 2: This is Chad's bet. I'm definitely putting this on you.

685
00:34:20,880 --> 00:34:23,880
Speaker 1: Oh my god, you are a fucking coward. All right,

686
00:34:23,920 --> 00:34:26,799
Speaker 1: here we go. You ready, guess what It's time for

687
00:34:27,160 --> 00:34:34,040
Speaker 1: our big ball Better the We Care presented by Tommy John.

688
00:34:34,400 --> 00:34:37,400
Speaker 1: If you've got the balls, Tommy John has the support.

689
00:34:37,840 --> 00:34:40,839
Speaker 1: Great games start with great underwear and Tommy John makes

690
00:34:40,880 --> 00:34:43,960
Speaker 1: the greatest. I'd like a little credit for belting it

691
00:34:44,000 --> 00:34:48,840
Speaker 1: out in a hotel room and I didn't lose my

692
00:34:48,920 --> 00:34:53,719
Speaker 1: voice or cough it out. That's it. That's exciting developments there.

693
00:34:54,120 --> 00:34:57,880
Speaker 1: We're going with the Indianapolis Colts plus four at Denver.

694
00:34:58,680 --> 00:35:02,880
Speaker 1: From the beginning on Sunday night, we talked about this

695
00:35:02,960 --> 00:35:05,680
Speaker 1: game and it just kind of without doing any research,

696
00:35:05,719 --> 00:35:09,480
Speaker 1: the number looked funny. It got up to four and

697
00:35:09,520 --> 00:35:13,120
Speaker 1: a half. Look, the culture one of those teams that

698
00:35:13,320 --> 00:35:15,840
Speaker 1: I think we and professional betters have more respect for

699
00:35:16,000 --> 00:35:19,880
Speaker 1: than the market. I think that's reflected in the line

700
00:35:20,480 --> 00:35:22,640
Speaker 1: like a couple that with the wind streak that the

701
00:35:22,640 --> 00:35:25,960
Speaker 1: Broncos have been on, including that wild game against the

702
00:35:26,000 --> 00:35:28,560
Speaker 1: Browns before they're by that they probably shouldn't have covered

703
00:35:28,560 --> 00:35:32,480
Speaker 1: at all. I just feel like we have an inflation alert.

704
00:35:32,719 --> 00:35:34,640
Speaker 1: You've spent the last couple of days thinking about it.

705
00:35:35,120 --> 00:35:38,960
Speaker 1: You're feeling strongly about it. You've spoken to the wise guys,

706
00:35:39,400 --> 00:35:42,200
Speaker 1: they're feeling strongly about it. How did you get there?

707
00:35:44,120 --> 00:35:45,920
Speaker 2: Yeah? I think what you just saw at the top, though,

708
00:35:46,040 --> 00:35:48,000
Speaker 2: is really about this number. And that's what a lot

709
00:35:48,040 --> 00:35:51,719
Speaker 2: of guys are debating. Was just isn't this line inflated

710
00:35:51,840 --> 00:35:54,040
Speaker 2: like this feels like it's bumped up way too high.

711
00:35:54,040 --> 00:35:56,960
Speaker 2: And yeah, obviously I'm jealous of you. I saw you

712
00:35:57,080 --> 00:35:58,440
Speaker 2: got a four and a half, and it's like that

713
00:35:58,480 --> 00:36:00,800
Speaker 2: would have been ideal, that would have been the perfect

714
00:36:00,880 --> 00:36:03,239
Speaker 2: number for us in the contest. But I'm not gonna

715
00:36:03,280 --> 00:36:04,520
Speaker 2: let it totally scare us off. If it's three and

716
00:36:04,560 --> 00:36:05,960
Speaker 2: a half, I could still see us put it in,

717
00:36:06,040 --> 00:36:09,680
Speaker 2: just because it still feels like it's inflated. And you know,

718
00:36:10,480 --> 00:36:12,600
Speaker 2: they haven't played a ton of running quarterbacks this season

719
00:36:12,640 --> 00:36:16,080
Speaker 2: obviously Denver, but we saw that even when I went

720
00:36:16,120 --> 00:36:18,839
Speaker 2: back and watched that Lamar game, that was a way

721
00:36:18,880 --> 00:36:22,239
Speaker 2: you can really kind of stifen their front four like that.

722
00:36:22,360 --> 00:36:24,520
Speaker 2: As good as they've been at rushing the passer and

723
00:36:24,520 --> 00:36:27,040
Speaker 2: getting to the passer, I've seen a couple of instances

724
00:36:27,120 --> 00:36:31,960
Speaker 2: they have struggle against mobile quarterbacks. And we've talked about

725
00:36:32,000 --> 00:36:36,640
Speaker 2: bo Knicks. You know, as great as he's played, we

726
00:36:36,680 --> 00:36:39,600
Speaker 2: saw last week with the Browns, it's like he's still

727
00:36:39,680 --> 00:36:42,120
Speaker 2: hitting a little bit of that rookie wall at this

728
00:36:42,200 --> 00:36:44,640
Speaker 2: point where teams are adjusting and making it more difficult

729
00:36:44,680 --> 00:36:48,560
Speaker 2: for him, and that we've seen that when it when

730
00:36:48,600 --> 00:36:52,480
Speaker 2: it is off game script that he has struggled. So yeah,

731
00:36:52,480 --> 00:36:55,279
Speaker 2: I fully support you in this number. I bet it.

732
00:36:55,719 --> 00:36:58,880
Speaker 2: I like the Colts here, Like we talked about, the

733
00:36:58,920 --> 00:37:02,399
Speaker 2: only real fear here is the difference between this team

734
00:37:02,440 --> 00:37:04,120
Speaker 2: that playing at home and on the road, they've just

735
00:37:04,120 --> 00:37:06,399
Speaker 2: been a different team. They're obviously way better at home,

736
00:37:06,440 --> 00:37:09,400
Speaker 2: this cold Steam, and even Anthony richardson his young career.

737
00:37:09,640 --> 00:37:11,000
Speaker 2: I mean you can go back and look, he is

738
00:37:11,000 --> 00:37:13,520
Speaker 2: a covering machine at home. He struggled a little bit

739
00:37:13,560 --> 00:37:15,480
Speaker 2: on the road. Again, maybe that has to do with

740
00:37:15,600 --> 00:37:18,200
Speaker 2: outdoors all this other stuff that we don't know because

741
00:37:18,200 --> 00:37:20,719
Speaker 2: he's only played you know, eleven games up to this

742
00:37:20,760 --> 00:37:23,280
Speaker 2: point of twelve games in the NFL, so that stuff

743
00:37:23,360 --> 00:37:25,880
Speaker 2: is tough to say. But another game, just like that

744
00:37:25,960 --> 00:37:28,400
Speaker 2: one we talked about with the Jaguars, it feels like

745
00:37:29,200 --> 00:37:32,279
Speaker 2: pros versus Joe's another week of the professionals are all

746
00:37:32,280 --> 00:37:34,879
Speaker 2: hammering one side and the public is very happy thinking

747
00:37:34,880 --> 00:37:38,279
Speaker 2: they're getting a good number on the other side. So yeah, Chaed,

748
00:37:38,480 --> 00:37:40,000
Speaker 2: I'm with you and back in the books here and

749
00:37:40,040 --> 00:37:42,120
Speaker 2: taking this three and a half four with this cold Steam.

750
00:37:42,480 --> 00:37:47,000
Speaker 1: Also a couple of really interesting injury developments Riley Moss

751
00:37:47,000 --> 00:37:50,799
Speaker 1: of the Broncos. Yeah, cornerback, the only player in the

752
00:37:50,800 --> 00:37:53,520
Speaker 1: Broncos not to practice so far this week, so does

753
00:37:53,560 --> 00:37:56,320
Speaker 1: not look like he'll be playing. Anyone who was watching

754
00:37:56,360 --> 00:38:01,280
Speaker 1: that Broncos Browns game on Monday night knows that William Vance,

755
00:38:01,320 --> 00:38:06,680
Speaker 1: the cornerbacker, replaced him. He just got freaking torched by

756
00:38:06,800 --> 00:38:09,319
Speaker 1: Jamis and Jerry Judy. That was the reason why they

757
00:38:09,320 --> 00:38:12,000
Speaker 1: stayed in that game. Every single time you looked up,

758
00:38:12,040 --> 00:38:15,640
Speaker 1: he was giving up a huge, huge play to Judy

759
00:38:15,800 --> 00:38:19,160
Speaker 1: with including a couple of touchdowns. So that's a big

760
00:38:19,200 --> 00:38:22,720
Speaker 1: deal for the Broncos in their past defense. Also, Ryan Kelly,

761
00:38:22,760 --> 00:38:27,200
Speaker 1: the Pro Bowl center for the Colts. He is practicing

762
00:38:27,280 --> 00:38:30,720
Speaker 1: again this week, coming off injured reserve with an injury

763
00:38:30,719 --> 00:38:33,160
Speaker 1: that he was limited in practice on Wednesday, But he

764
00:38:33,239 --> 00:38:34,920
Speaker 1: is in the window where they can activate him if

765
00:38:34,960 --> 00:38:38,560
Speaker 1: they feel comfortable with it. So that might be something

766
00:38:38,600 --> 00:38:43,080
Speaker 1: that gives you a little bit more confidence betting on

767
00:38:43,120 --> 00:38:46,000
Speaker 1: the Colts. Also, Anthony Richardson, you talked about it. He's

768
00:38:46,080 --> 00:38:48,759
Speaker 1: got a touch of Bryce Young in him in terms

769
00:38:48,800 --> 00:38:52,719
Speaker 1: of since he's been benched, he's been considerably better. Pro

770
00:38:52,760 --> 00:38:56,280
Speaker 1: Football Focus has him eighth in their overall passing grades

771
00:38:56,320 --> 00:38:59,200
Speaker 1: fourth and big time throws since his Week ten returned,

772
00:38:59,200 --> 00:39:01,759
Speaker 1: so we're on the colts. I think we'll get him

773
00:39:01,760 --> 00:39:03,480
Speaker 1: at four and a half in the contest, but I

774
00:39:03,480 --> 00:39:06,880
Speaker 1: also like him at three and a half as you do, Simon.

775
00:39:07,480 --> 00:39:11,759
Speaker 1: We can hear the bells, we can smell the gingerbread.

776
00:39:12,120 --> 00:39:16,000
Speaker 1: The holiday season is upon us, and with over twenty

777
00:39:16,440 --> 00:39:20,840
Speaker 1: million pairs sold and thousands of five star reviews, let's

778
00:39:21,080 --> 00:39:24,960
Speaker 1: make the Gift of Tommy John our newest holiday tradition.

779
00:39:25,080 --> 00:39:27,719
Speaker 1: It always feels good to give a thoughtful gift, but

780
00:39:27,760 --> 00:39:31,239
Speaker 1: it feels great to give Tommy John. You'll feel the

781
00:39:31,280 --> 00:39:35,160
Speaker 1: warm glow of upgrading someone's life, and with breathable comfort,

782
00:39:35,280 --> 00:39:40,000
Speaker 1: they'll feel those special cringle tingles all year long. Simon,

783
00:39:41,040 --> 00:39:43,359
Speaker 1: why will you be giving the gift of Tommy John

784
00:39:43,640 --> 00:39:44,440
Speaker 1: this season?

785
00:39:45,040 --> 00:39:46,799
Speaker 2: Because it's the gift that last.

786
00:39:47,120 --> 00:39:49,680
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787
00:39:49,680 --> 00:39:53,080
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788
00:39:53,160 --> 00:39:55,720
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789
00:39:55,960 --> 00:40:00,359
Speaker 1: Tommy John dot com slash Favorites. I wear my Tommy

790
00:40:00,440 --> 00:40:03,880
Speaker 1: Johns for the Big Live Show tonight, packed him special

791
00:40:04,800 --> 00:40:08,160
Speaker 1: just for the show. All Right, big game. I thought

792
00:40:08,160 --> 00:40:11,160
Speaker 1: this was going to end up being a Foxhole game,

793
00:40:11,200 --> 00:40:13,520
Speaker 1: even though it was already our exec decision. I thought

794
00:40:13,520 --> 00:40:15,320
Speaker 1: it might be a big balls even though it was

795
00:40:15,520 --> 00:40:19,239
Speaker 1: our exec decision. Buffalo at Detroit. Detroit's minus two and

796
00:40:19,320 --> 00:40:22,600
Speaker 1: a half. We loved it. It one and a half and

797
00:40:22,640 --> 00:40:25,160
Speaker 1: it moved right, and it moved while we were on

798
00:40:25,200 --> 00:40:28,440
Speaker 1: the show. Now it's at two and a half. Seventy

799
00:40:28,480 --> 00:40:31,120
Speaker 1: percent of the tickets on the bills, so we have

800
00:40:31,200 --> 00:40:34,080
Speaker 1: a reverse line move here, which means even though the

801
00:40:34,080 --> 00:40:37,000
Speaker 1: tickets are coming in on the bills, the line has

802
00:40:37,080 --> 00:40:42,200
Speaker 1: moved in the Lion's direction. It's gone up. I think

803
00:40:42,239 --> 00:40:44,359
Speaker 1: the lines are the better team. Nothing I've done since

804
00:40:44,360 --> 00:40:47,120
Speaker 1: Tuesday makes me feel differently. I think they might be

805
00:40:47,120 --> 00:40:49,839
Speaker 1: as healthy as they've been in weeks. Across the defensive line,

806
00:40:49,880 --> 00:40:53,359
Speaker 1: they could be getting a lot of players back. They

807
00:40:53,360 --> 00:40:56,279
Speaker 1: haven't played in ten days. The last thing they did

808
00:40:56,360 --> 00:40:59,600
Speaker 1: it was at home. They haven't left home since they

809
00:40:59,600 --> 00:41:01,840
Speaker 1: were on the road at India on November twenty fourth.

810
00:41:05,440 --> 00:41:07,120
Speaker 1: Where do you feel? How do you feel? What are

811
00:41:07,200 --> 00:41:07,600
Speaker 1: you thinking?

812
00:41:07,920 --> 00:41:10,800
Speaker 2: Am I agree? I mean I love the lines. Obviously

813
00:41:10,840 --> 00:41:12,839
Speaker 2: we wish it was one and a half. If it's

814
00:41:12,840 --> 00:41:14,400
Speaker 2: two and a half, chat, I could still see us

815
00:41:14,400 --> 00:41:16,319
Speaker 2: putting this on the contest, just because that was.

816
00:41:16,280 --> 00:41:19,680
Speaker 1: My question for you, like I would. I'm waffling a

817
00:41:19,680 --> 00:41:21,040
Speaker 1: little bit at the two and a half. I don't

818
00:41:21,040 --> 00:41:23,640
Speaker 1: know why, but maybe I'm losing my courage a little

819
00:41:23,680 --> 00:41:27,320
Speaker 1: bit because the number, because I'm like, I'm hearing whispers

820
00:41:27,360 --> 00:41:28,759
Speaker 1: about people who like the Bills too.

821
00:41:29,520 --> 00:41:32,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, me too. And my view with though, is what

822
00:41:32,600 --> 00:41:34,399
Speaker 2: you just talked about. I just think the Lines, even

823
00:41:34,440 --> 00:41:36,520
Speaker 2: with all their injuries to the defense, I still think

824
00:41:36,520 --> 00:41:38,520
Speaker 2: they're the better team overall. I mean, we haven't really

825
00:41:38,600 --> 00:41:41,040
Speaker 2: talked about just because the Bills. I mean Josh Allen,

826
00:41:41,120 --> 00:41:42,960
Speaker 2: like I said, he's been Captain America and it hasn't matter.

827
00:41:43,040 --> 00:41:46,240
Speaker 2: But they have what sixty million in dead cap money,

828
00:41:46,280 --> 00:41:48,759
Speaker 2: some crazy agreeious number this season because the whole thing

829
00:41:48,760 --> 00:41:51,719
Speaker 2: that went on with Digs and you know they've overcome

830
00:41:51,760 --> 00:41:56,600
Speaker 2: that because of him. But they have they overcome in

831
00:41:56,600 --> 00:41:58,040
Speaker 2: the sense that they're about to beat now one of

832
00:41:58,040 --> 00:42:00,200
Speaker 2: the best teams in all football in the Lines at home.

833
00:42:00,680 --> 00:42:03,520
Speaker 2: Like we just talked about it. It's like, I get

834
00:42:03,560 --> 00:42:05,799
Speaker 2: all the love and respect for this Bills team, that

835
00:42:05,840 --> 00:42:08,440
Speaker 2: this number has to below three. Like we talked something

836
00:42:08,640 --> 00:42:10,800
Speaker 2: when this was at three, It's like, okay, and that number,

837
00:42:10,840 --> 00:42:13,960
Speaker 2: I would take the Bills. But once it's dipped under that,

838
00:42:13,960 --> 00:42:15,440
Speaker 2: that that to me is why I want to be

839
00:42:15,480 --> 00:42:18,640
Speaker 2: on this this Lion's team, and our our hesitation here

840
00:42:18,680 --> 00:42:20,520
Speaker 2: is just that me and Chat. I don't know how

841
00:42:20,520 --> 00:42:21,920
Speaker 2: many times you've been on the plus two and a

842
00:42:21,960 --> 00:42:23,839
Speaker 2: half number and it's literally landed on two and we've

843
00:42:23,880 --> 00:42:25,839
Speaker 2: covered almost every time on that two and a half.

844
00:42:25,880 --> 00:42:28,479
Speaker 2: So maybe that's the hesitation here. But there's a couple

845
00:42:28,440 --> 00:42:30,200
Speaker 2: of favorites I like this week at mine two and

846
00:42:30,239 --> 00:42:33,719
Speaker 2: a half and I'm gonna I'm gonna, I'm gonna ride

847
00:42:33,719 --> 00:42:35,480
Speaker 2: it with it. I just think matchup wise, this is

848
00:42:35,480 --> 00:42:39,000
Speaker 2: a good matchup for the Lions team. That Bills team

849
00:42:39,080 --> 00:42:40,960
Speaker 2: is as good as they are now. Great, Josh Allen

850
00:42:41,120 --> 00:42:45,000
Speaker 2: is you know this Lion's team I feel about it

851
00:42:45,000 --> 00:42:47,319
Speaker 2: get stops defensively and on the other side of the ball.

852
00:42:47,360 --> 00:42:49,960
Speaker 2: I don't know how the Bills will get stops defensively.

853
00:42:50,040 --> 00:42:51,920
Speaker 2: Like it feels like if the Lions choose to run

854
00:42:51,960 --> 00:42:54,439
Speaker 2: the ball down this Bills team's throat, they'll be able

855
00:42:54,440 --> 00:42:57,200
Speaker 2: to do it like that's we've seen it now that

856
00:42:57,239 --> 00:43:00,600
Speaker 2: this this two headed monster is just something special Montgomery

857
00:43:00,640 --> 00:43:03,279
Speaker 2: and Gibbs. So yeah, another game. I'm trying to hard

858
00:43:03,280 --> 00:43:05,360
Speaker 2: out there. Everything check because I'm with you. My instinct

859
00:43:05,440 --> 00:43:08,759
Speaker 2: right away was like, Bills, take Josh Allen as a dog,

860
00:43:08,840 --> 00:43:11,319
Speaker 2: as a three point dog, take it now. But now

861
00:43:11,320 --> 00:43:13,000
Speaker 2: we've settled into this week, and the more I thought

862
00:43:13,000 --> 00:43:15,640
Speaker 2: about it, it's like, oh, this is a good number. We're

863
00:43:15,640 --> 00:43:19,120
Speaker 2: getting good value on this Lions team. I would honestly

864
00:43:19,239 --> 00:43:21,959
Speaker 2: probably take this up to three now at this point,

865
00:43:21,960 --> 00:43:24,319
Speaker 2: like I probably would still take Detroit at minus three

866
00:43:24,360 --> 00:43:26,360
Speaker 2: the more I've looked in this game. So yeah, just

867
00:43:26,400 --> 00:43:28,200
Speaker 2: a tough spot for this Bills team coming off such

868
00:43:28,200 --> 00:43:31,040
Speaker 2: a brutal game against the Rams, facing, like you just said,

869
00:43:31,440 --> 00:43:33,960
Speaker 2: a Lion's team that's coming off extended rust at home,

870
00:43:34,600 --> 00:43:36,799
Speaker 2: getting guys back healthy. This should just be a great

871
00:43:36,800 --> 00:43:37,480
Speaker 2: matchup for them.

872
00:43:38,320 --> 00:43:41,479
Speaker 1: Also, the Bill's coming off a brutal stretch, right playing

873
00:43:41,520 --> 00:43:45,560
Speaker 1: the Chiefs, playing the Niners, going across the country, playing

874
00:43:45,560 --> 00:43:49,280
Speaker 1: the Rams in a in a crazy game, physical game.

875
00:43:49,920 --> 00:43:52,239
Speaker 1: Uh now they got to travel again. For the Lion

876
00:43:52,280 --> 00:43:54,600
Speaker 1: it's just a it's a. It's a rough it's a

877
00:43:54,680 --> 00:43:57,799
Speaker 1: rough spot for the Bills. So all right, good, then

878
00:43:57,800 --> 00:44:00,440
Speaker 1: I feel better about putting the Lions in at two

879
00:44:00,480 --> 00:44:01,960
Speaker 1: and a half. You've kind of convinced me. You made

880
00:44:01,960 --> 00:44:02,120
Speaker 1: me fin.

881
00:44:02,360 --> 00:44:03,799
Speaker 2: I've been hitting it like I've been betting this, but

882
00:44:03,960 --> 00:44:05,160
Speaker 2: it was just sitting at too, I was like, I

883
00:44:05,200 --> 00:44:06,680
Speaker 2: got to keep betting this until it goes up to

884
00:44:06,680 --> 00:44:08,880
Speaker 2: two and a half and there's still some twos out there.

885
00:44:08,880 --> 00:44:09,760
Speaker 2: If you want this number.

886
00:44:10,200 --> 00:44:13,319
Speaker 1: You know what. You've supported me the way Tommy John

887
00:44:13,320 --> 00:44:19,200
Speaker 1: supports me. You are my personal Tommy John. H Tampa

888
00:44:19,200 --> 00:44:23,200
Speaker 1: Bay plus three at the Chargers. You've talked about it,

889
00:44:23,320 --> 00:44:26,360
Speaker 1: you've liked it. You love this one on Tuesday, second

890
00:44:26,400 --> 00:44:28,960
Speaker 1: week in a row. You like Tampa. Clearly you are

891
00:44:29,000 --> 00:44:33,680
Speaker 1: seeing something. You're right, it's split. I've heard things going

892
00:44:33,719 --> 00:44:38,200
Speaker 1: both ways. Yeah, so I feel like this is mostly

893
00:44:38,239 --> 00:44:40,480
Speaker 1: a pro play though, Like I think the line is

894
00:44:40,480 --> 00:44:41,960
Speaker 1: at three and it's going to go back down to

895
00:44:41,960 --> 00:44:44,439
Speaker 1: two and a half. What are you seeing that makes

896
00:44:44,480 --> 00:44:45,160
Speaker 1: you feel so good?

897
00:44:46,120 --> 00:44:48,720
Speaker 2: And is I told you it's split that the guys

898
00:44:48,719 --> 00:44:50,560
Speaker 2: taking the three of professionals and then I know plenty

899
00:44:50,560 --> 00:44:52,400
Speaker 2: of professionals taking the two and a half on the Chargers.

900
00:44:52,400 --> 00:44:54,520
Speaker 1: So it's yeah, exactly. I think it's the.

901
00:44:54,480 --> 00:44:55,839
Speaker 2: Game that if you're like, I don't want to put

902
00:44:55,840 --> 00:44:57,960
Speaker 2: this in because it's so split, I would totally understand

903
00:44:58,000 --> 00:45:00,880
Speaker 2: because it's It's definitely a game I was on Monday

904
00:45:00,920 --> 00:45:03,520
Speaker 2: and Tuesday on this Tampa team, and I've pulled back

905
00:45:03,680 --> 00:45:05,960
Speaker 2: is the week has gone along hearing some other people's

906
00:45:06,000 --> 00:45:10,480
Speaker 2: opinions and look at the numbers of like, Okay, do

907
00:45:10,560 --> 00:45:11,920
Speaker 2: I really want to risk a ton of money on

908
00:45:11,920 --> 00:45:15,480
Speaker 2: Baker on the road in this exact spot. But I

909
00:45:15,600 --> 00:45:17,600
Speaker 2: just view this Tampa as a more complete team right

910
00:45:17,640 --> 00:45:19,879
Speaker 2: now and a healthier team playing against a Chargers team

911
00:45:19,920 --> 00:45:22,600
Speaker 2: that I still think they're overvalued, Like I thought they

912
00:45:22,600 --> 00:45:25,759
Speaker 2: were overvalidated in last week. They got away with it right.

913
00:45:25,800 --> 00:45:28,600
Speaker 2: They had two good drives that had resulted in touchdowns.

914
00:45:28,960 --> 00:45:31,279
Speaker 2: Really that changed that game. Other than the outside there's

915
00:45:31,320 --> 00:45:33,440
Speaker 2: two touchdowns, they really didn't do much. Herbert didn't do

916
00:45:33,560 --> 00:45:36,560
Speaker 2: much in that game. So even you know, I'm not

917
00:45:36,560 --> 00:45:38,760
Speaker 2: trying to bash Herbert because obviously he's playing with terrible

918
00:45:38,800 --> 00:45:42,800
Speaker 2: receivers right now, but he's also been inconsistent of the season,

919
00:45:42,800 --> 00:45:44,680
Speaker 2: which is my not coming into him this season was

920
00:45:44,760 --> 00:45:47,080
Speaker 2: like he can, you can have a really good one quarter,

921
00:45:47,080 --> 00:45:49,080
Speaker 2: but then he'll have three quarters of just struggling, not

922
00:45:49,120 --> 00:45:54,000
Speaker 2: doing much. And this Tampa team, they have their running

923
00:45:54,040 --> 00:45:56,120
Speaker 2: backs like they're not missing their top guy like that

924
00:45:56,239 --> 00:45:58,719
Speaker 2: the Jaguar. The Chargers are in JK. Dobbins and they're

925
00:45:58,719 --> 00:46:01,319
Speaker 2: not missing their number receiver that like the Chargers are

926
00:46:01,360 --> 00:46:04,719
Speaker 2: with McConkey. They have Mike Evans back, and you've seen

927
00:46:04,760 --> 00:46:08,240
Speaker 2: it that they've kind of had Mike Evans be break

928
00:46:08,280 --> 00:46:10,520
Speaker 2: glass in case of emergency, like they haven't really been

929
00:46:10,560 --> 00:46:12,680
Speaker 2: forcing him the ball and put him in these terrible

930
00:46:12,680 --> 00:46:15,640
Speaker 2: positions that really mess with his lower body because that's

931
00:46:15,800 --> 00:46:19,160
Speaker 2: that was injuries coming off of and looking at this matchup,

932
00:46:19,800 --> 00:46:21,960
Speaker 2: you know, maybe they put Durwin James on them, but like,

933
00:46:22,000 --> 00:46:24,840
Speaker 2: I don't see anyone on the side of the Chargers.

934
00:46:24,840 --> 00:46:26,880
Speaker 2: I'll be able to take away the Mike Evans factor

935
00:46:26,920 --> 00:46:29,120
Speaker 2: that whenever he wants, he'll be able to get there.

936
00:46:29,160 --> 00:46:31,799
Speaker 2: And you know, as the season that comes along, as

937
00:46:31,840 --> 00:46:33,440
Speaker 2: great as Joel has been in the offensive line of

938
00:46:33,440 --> 00:46:36,680
Speaker 2: the Charges have been, overall, they're not one of the

939
00:46:36,719 --> 00:46:38,800
Speaker 2: best offensive lines. Like there are ways to attack and

940
00:46:38,880 --> 00:46:41,640
Speaker 2: especially in the interiors. So it's just about the number

941
00:46:41,640 --> 00:46:44,239
Speaker 2: for me and loving this Tampa team. Like Unfortunately, I

942
00:46:44,320 --> 00:46:46,200
Speaker 2: was hoping in our contest we would get three and

943
00:46:46,200 --> 00:46:48,640
Speaker 2: a half. There's no way because we already talked about it,

944
00:46:48,680 --> 00:46:49,839
Speaker 2: like a lot of books have been moving to two

945
00:46:49,840 --> 00:46:52,279
Speaker 2: and a half. So once again, it's a game that

946
00:46:53,080 --> 00:46:54,759
Speaker 2: I love the number. We're not gonna get the number

947
00:46:54,800 --> 00:46:56,520
Speaker 2: I want and play in the contest, so if we

948
00:46:56,560 --> 00:46:57,880
Speaker 2: don't want to put it in on final. With that,

949
00:46:57,880 --> 00:46:59,239
Speaker 2: there's other games I like as well.

950
00:47:00,120 --> 00:47:02,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean I think this is this one. There

951
00:47:02,160 --> 00:47:04,680
Speaker 1: were three games that were on this two and a

952
00:47:04,719 --> 00:47:11,160
Speaker 1: half three line, Houston, Miami, Tampa Bay Chargers, and then

953
00:47:11,200 --> 00:47:14,040
Speaker 1: this last one, which I'll transition to, which is your

954
00:47:14,080 --> 00:47:17,840
Speaker 1: Simon says, Green Bay two and a half over the

955
00:47:17,840 --> 00:47:21,000
Speaker 1: Seahawks on the road in Seattle. And this one has

956
00:47:21,040 --> 00:47:23,520
Speaker 1: been bouncing around two. I think in most places it's

957
00:47:23,560 --> 00:47:25,759
Speaker 1: now at three, although it was still at two and

958
00:47:25,840 --> 00:47:29,359
Speaker 1: a half at bet three six five. I think we'll

959
00:47:29,400 --> 00:47:32,920
Speaker 1: get two and a half in the contest. I actually

960
00:47:32,960 --> 00:47:34,879
Speaker 1: feel pretty good about the Packers at two and a half.

961
00:47:34,960 --> 00:47:36,759
Speaker 1: I feel better about the Packers at two and a

962
00:47:36,800 --> 00:47:39,560
Speaker 1: half as favorites than I think I do about the

963
00:47:39,600 --> 00:47:41,760
Speaker 1: box at two and a half as dogs.

964
00:47:43,160 --> 00:47:45,040
Speaker 2: Yeah. My only fear with this is I've been hitting

965
00:47:45,040 --> 00:47:47,759
Speaker 2: this pretty heavy, and like I talked a couple of

966
00:47:47,760 --> 00:47:49,480
Speaker 2: bookmakers and I was like, Oh, you're gonna move us

967
00:47:49,520 --> 00:47:51,040
Speaker 2: up to three now, and they said no. I was like,

968
00:47:51,040 --> 00:47:53,520
Speaker 2: ah shit, maybe I'm stepping into one here because usually

969
00:47:53,520 --> 00:47:56,160
Speaker 2: when I come in and especially guys should respect me,

970
00:47:56,200 --> 00:47:58,600
Speaker 2: they will move numbers off my bet. But this one

971
00:47:59,080 --> 00:48:02,360
Speaker 2: didn't budge. So the books are taking a stain on

972
00:48:02,400 --> 00:48:05,319
Speaker 2: the Seahawks. I know some professionals like the Seahaks here

973
00:48:05,360 --> 00:48:07,080
Speaker 2: because they think their defense is still being a little

974
00:48:07,120 --> 00:48:11,399
Speaker 2: underrated and that you know, something's not read Jordan Love.

975
00:48:11,480 --> 00:48:13,680
Speaker 2: But it's like I don't know. When I go through

976
00:48:13,719 --> 00:48:16,040
Speaker 2: all their games and watch them break it down, it's like,

977
00:48:16,160 --> 00:48:17,680
Speaker 2: this is still a team that wants to run the

978
00:48:17,719 --> 00:48:20,680
Speaker 2: ball in Green Bay, and if they can get any

979
00:48:20,719 --> 00:48:23,400
Speaker 2: type of run game going, it's gonna be over for

980
00:48:23,440 --> 00:48:25,440
Speaker 2: the Seahawks because that just builds off the four, just

981
00:48:25,440 --> 00:48:27,680
Speaker 2: builds off that run game so strong the play action

982
00:48:27,800 --> 00:48:31,080
Speaker 2: pass and we've seen it, like Jordan Love loves to

983
00:48:31,120 --> 00:48:33,440
Speaker 2: push the ball downfield off play action pass, like if

984
00:48:33,440 --> 00:48:36,120
Speaker 2: he has the checkdown of five to ten yards and

985
00:48:36,160 --> 00:48:38,480
Speaker 2: it's an easy five to ten yards. He will take

986
00:48:38,520 --> 00:48:41,319
Speaker 2: the man that's covered downfield for the twenty five yard

987
00:48:41,360 --> 00:48:42,920
Speaker 2: or if he can. He just loves to push the

988
00:48:42,960 --> 00:48:45,120
Speaker 2: ball downfield. It's just the way Jordan Love has been

989
00:48:45,120 --> 00:48:47,839
Speaker 2: this season. And we've seen the Seahawks, you know, as

990
00:48:47,920 --> 00:48:50,120
Speaker 2: good as their defense has been, there are ways to

991
00:48:50,160 --> 00:48:53,239
Speaker 2: attacking the ways that I think this Green Bay team

992
00:48:53,239 --> 00:48:55,799
Speaker 2: can exploit. And of the on the flip side, it's like,

993
00:48:56,640 --> 00:48:59,360
Speaker 2: at what point does the Seahawks team become overrated a

994
00:48:59,360 --> 00:49:02,200
Speaker 2: little overvalued? Right? Like they've had a run here where

995
00:49:02,200 --> 00:49:05,800
Speaker 2: they've had some really great covers and you know, shocking,

996
00:49:05,920 --> 00:49:11,359
Speaker 2: they're eight and five now Heather Division, and I get

997
00:49:11,400 --> 00:49:13,279
Speaker 2: where these these pros are coming from. But let's just

998
00:49:13,320 --> 00:49:16,520
Speaker 2: break down since their bye week, right, they went to

999
00:49:16,560 --> 00:49:18,799
Speaker 2: the forty nine ers and they stole one, right, they

1000
00:49:18,800 --> 00:49:20,200
Speaker 2: got dined in the whole game that you know, turned

1001
00:49:20,200 --> 00:49:22,800
Speaker 2: it on. They won twenty to seventeen. Then they played

1002
00:49:22,880 --> 00:49:26,560
Speaker 2: Arizona at home, a team that we've been on fraud

1003
00:49:26,600 --> 00:49:28,680
Speaker 2: watch of Arizona all season. We always talk about, we

1004
00:49:28,719 --> 00:49:32,880
Speaker 2: don't know if Kyler Murray is just inconsistent if he

1005
00:49:32,920 --> 00:49:35,120
Speaker 2: doesn't really you know, know, how to break down game

1006
00:49:35,160 --> 00:49:36,560
Speaker 2: for him, because it seems like the second half of

1007
00:49:36,560 --> 00:49:39,480
Speaker 2: the year every time in his career he struggles. So

1008
00:49:39,520 --> 00:49:43,520
Speaker 2: he loses. They lose to the Seahawks. Right next game,

1009
00:49:43,560 --> 00:49:46,439
Speaker 2: they play the Jets, another fluky game that they win,

1010
00:49:47,200 --> 00:49:49,200
Speaker 2: and then they go to Arizona and beat Arizona again.

1011
00:49:49,320 --> 00:49:51,640
Speaker 2: So it's like, I get why the public's coming in

1012
00:49:51,719 --> 00:49:54,160
Speaker 2: on this team after those four straight wins, but when

1013
00:49:54,160 --> 00:49:56,360
Speaker 2: you really go through it, it's like, are there that

1014
00:49:56,400 --> 00:49:58,040
Speaker 2: great of wins? I mean, we already talked about those

1015
00:49:58,080 --> 00:50:01,200
Speaker 2: Arizona games. The first one was a little fluky, right,

1016
00:50:01,200 --> 00:50:03,479
Speaker 2: they could have easily gone the other way. Jets game,

1017
00:50:03,560 --> 00:50:05,799
Speaker 2: same thing. So it just feels like it's a nice

1018
00:50:05,800 --> 00:50:07,799
Speaker 2: time for me to sell on the Seahawks team that

1019
00:50:08,120 --> 00:50:10,000
Speaker 2: I know professionals still buying on a me to buy

1020
00:50:10,000 --> 00:50:12,560
Speaker 2: a low on a green Bay team that I already

1021
00:50:12,560 --> 00:50:14,840
Speaker 2: gave this stat and everyone else is giving it out

1022
00:50:15,239 --> 00:50:18,640
Speaker 2: Vikings green Bay Detroit twenty and three playing outside their

1023
00:50:18,640 --> 00:50:21,400
Speaker 2: division this season, like that's just not something we can ignore.

1024
00:50:21,800 --> 00:50:25,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's just are you buying the Packers losing against

1025
00:50:25,239 --> 00:50:30,040
Speaker 1: really good teams or the Seahawks beating teams that aren't

1026
00:50:30,040 --> 00:50:33,399
Speaker 1: as good in flukey ways. They don't beat the Jets

1027
00:50:33,400 --> 00:50:36,920
Speaker 1: if they don't get that Leonard Williams touchdown return, Yeah, right,

1028
00:50:37,120 --> 00:50:39,719
Speaker 1: right right for an interception, right, so I get it.

1029
00:50:40,560 --> 00:50:43,480
Speaker 1: I probably lean Packers minus two and a half for

1030
00:50:43,520 --> 00:50:46,279
Speaker 1: the contest versus Bucks plus two and a half. But

1031
00:50:46,840 --> 00:50:47,560
Speaker 1: you know we can do.

1032
00:50:47,600 --> 00:50:50,319
Speaker 2: It's only bigger bet. So it's like I'll probably make

1033
00:50:50,400 --> 00:50:51,759
Speaker 2: us put at Green Bay. And just because I'm so

1034
00:50:51,840 --> 00:50:53,880
Speaker 2: heavy invest it, it's like, make make the show be

1035
00:50:53,920 --> 00:50:54,759
Speaker 2: invested in it too.

1036
00:50:55,440 --> 00:50:57,759
Speaker 1: I don't have any Look, I've bet them both. I've

1037
00:50:57,760 --> 00:50:59,719
Speaker 1: bet more on the Packers at minus two and a

1038
00:50:59,760 --> 00:51:02,960
Speaker 1: half that I bet in the box at plus three. Okay,

1039
00:51:03,640 --> 00:51:06,759
Speaker 1: so you know, you know, like you I probably put

1040
00:51:06,760 --> 00:51:09,080
Speaker 1: what one hundred grand on the Packers at minus two

1041
00:51:09,120 --> 00:51:10,439
Speaker 1: and a half, two hundred grand.

1042
00:51:10,680 --> 00:51:11,680
Speaker 2: Sure, talk about it.

1043
00:51:12,040 --> 00:51:14,440
Speaker 1: We can talk about it at this show tonight. Last

1044
00:51:14,440 --> 00:51:15,920
Speaker 1: game quickly I want to talk about because I know

1045
00:51:15,920 --> 00:51:20,280
Speaker 1: we want to get to Evan the Bears plus seven,

1046
00:51:20,520 --> 00:51:24,560
Speaker 1: like like it's just too big of a number. It

1047
00:51:24,600 --> 00:51:28,120
Speaker 1: doesn't make any sense. There's no way the Viking should

1048
00:51:28,160 --> 00:51:31,600
Speaker 1: be seven point favorites against the Bears in the division,

1049
00:51:31,719 --> 00:51:34,680
Speaker 1: Like if we didn't if we didn't have the bias

1050
00:51:35,120 --> 00:51:37,200
Speaker 1: of the Bears and what happened last week, and we

1051
00:51:37,239 --> 00:51:40,040
Speaker 1: didn't have the bias of sam Donold lighting it up

1052
00:51:40,880 --> 00:51:45,239
Speaker 1: against the Falcons, and we just saw this number with

1053
00:51:45,320 --> 00:51:47,719
Speaker 1: teams in this division, and we saw the stats for

1054
00:51:47,760 --> 00:51:52,400
Speaker 1: the Bears defense. We would play the Bears. We just would.

1055
00:51:52,600 --> 00:51:55,160
Speaker 1: I'm not saying like we have to. I'm actually glad

1056
00:51:55,200 --> 00:51:57,480
Speaker 1: that I didn't hear from sharp calls that Wise guys

1057
00:51:57,520 --> 00:52:00,160
Speaker 1: were coming in on the Bears at an excessive ray.

1058
00:52:00,440 --> 00:52:03,400
Speaker 1: But I'm just saying we would play the Bears.

1059
00:52:04,120 --> 00:52:05,680
Speaker 2: No, And every Wise guy talked to it does like

1060
00:52:05,719 --> 00:52:08,400
Speaker 2: that side. Like you know, this pro last night was

1061
00:52:08,400 --> 00:52:11,040
Speaker 2: saying his biggest bet of the night was Bears at seven.

1062
00:52:11,560 --> 00:52:13,919
Speaker 2: But he said, yeah, he says he loves it at seven,

1063
00:52:13,920 --> 00:52:16,480
Speaker 2: but it's your exact viewpoint of like this is way

1064
00:52:16,520 --> 00:52:19,680
Speaker 2: too big for a divisional matchup. But I pushed back

1065
00:52:19,719 --> 00:52:22,040
Speaker 2: and I said, I just I can't trust Caleb Splits

1066
00:52:22,040 --> 00:52:23,480
Speaker 2: on the road and home away. He's just been a

1067
00:52:23,480 --> 00:52:26,000
Speaker 2: totally different quarterback on the road and versus at home.

1068
00:52:26,640 --> 00:52:31,040
Speaker 2: And yeah, it's I'm happier avoid to check, because honestly,

1069
00:52:31,080 --> 00:52:32,880
Speaker 2: I can't. I can't do another week with this this

1070
00:52:33,000 --> 00:52:35,440
Speaker 2: Bears team. They've been good to us this season, so

1071
00:52:35,440 --> 00:52:38,000
Speaker 2: I don't want Tom knock him too hard. Obviously we

1072
00:52:38,080 --> 00:52:41,400
Speaker 2: just caught a bad one last week. But I could

1073
00:52:41,480 --> 00:52:43,200
Speaker 2: I told you my hesitation he is I could easily

1074
00:52:43,360 --> 00:52:45,520
Speaker 2: see Kevin O'Connell never calling off the dogs here just

1075
00:52:45,560 --> 00:52:48,719
Speaker 2: because they blew a fourteen point league to this this team,

1076
00:52:48,800 --> 00:52:51,520
Speaker 2: what two three weeks ago, this Bears team. So yeah,

1077
00:52:51,600 --> 00:52:55,040
Speaker 2: that's my hesitation here is that if they want to

1078
00:52:55,080 --> 00:52:57,480
Speaker 2: because they are they are the better team, the Vikings

1079
00:52:57,480 --> 00:52:59,640
Speaker 2: really could open up and punish this team. But you're right,

1080
00:53:00,440 --> 00:53:03,600
Speaker 2: normally divisional game seven plus seven, this is way too

1081
00:53:03,680 --> 00:53:06,239
Speaker 2: many points for this Bears team. So it's it's a

1082
00:53:06,280 --> 00:53:08,440
Speaker 2: tough one that we have to pass on chat. But

1083
00:53:08,480 --> 00:53:11,720
Speaker 2: it's like, don't make me bet to Spars team once again.

1084
00:53:12,120 --> 00:53:15,440
Speaker 1: No, Look, I think we have five games that we

1085
00:53:15,640 --> 00:53:18,480
Speaker 1: like even better, and preliminarily, I just want to be

1086
00:53:18,520 --> 00:53:22,160
Speaker 1: clear you and I because like we miscommunicated last week

1087
00:53:22,160 --> 00:53:26,000
Speaker 1: with the Panthers right now, Cleveland four and a half,

1088
00:53:26,080 --> 00:53:28,680
Speaker 1: Jags three and a half, Pittsburgh five and a half,

1089
00:53:28,800 --> 00:53:31,239
Speaker 1: Colts four and a half, Detroit two and a half,

1090
00:53:31,320 --> 00:53:35,000
Speaker 1: green Bay two and a half. Like, of those six,

1091
00:53:37,040 --> 00:53:41,719
Speaker 1: who is your first one out? It feels like it

1092
00:53:41,760 --> 00:53:44,040
Speaker 1: comes down to the It feels like it comes down

1093
00:53:44,040 --> 00:53:45,120
Speaker 1: to the Jags, right.

1094
00:53:47,040 --> 00:53:49,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, just be I get your hesitation with the Jags

1095
00:53:50,160 --> 00:53:52,680
Speaker 2: now one. I really do just love the number. It

1096
00:53:52,760 --> 00:53:55,279
Speaker 2: could be. I told you I'm having a tough time

1097
00:53:55,360 --> 00:53:57,359
Speaker 2: chat with this Pittsburgh number. I'm not gonna lie. I'm

1098
00:53:57,400 --> 00:54:01,120
Speaker 2: having a real tough time with Pittsburgh. So I let

1099
00:54:01,160 --> 00:54:02,680
Speaker 2: you take the Jags out. If you want to dig

1100
00:54:02,680 --> 00:54:04,440
Speaker 2: your heels on Pittsburgh, I'm happy with that.

1101
00:54:05,440 --> 00:54:08,960
Speaker 1: Well, let's talk. We can dig like it just feels

1102
00:54:09,000 --> 00:54:10,960
Speaker 1: like we're We'll talk.

1103
00:54:11,000 --> 00:54:12,879
Speaker 2: Then after a couple of drinks, we'll figure this out.

1104
00:54:12,880 --> 00:54:14,719
Speaker 1: With the fall, I feel like with the Steelers were

1105
00:54:14,719 --> 00:54:17,080
Speaker 1: making the same We'll ask the group what should be

1106
00:54:17,120 --> 00:54:19,040
Speaker 1: the last one in? But I do feel like we're

1107
00:54:19,080 --> 00:54:20,920
Speaker 1: making the same mistake we always make with the Steelers

1108
00:54:20,960 --> 00:54:23,400
Speaker 1: as trying to find a reason not to play Tomlin

1109
00:54:23,719 --> 00:54:26,719
Speaker 1: as a big road dog in again that we think

1110
00:54:26,800 --> 00:54:28,799
Speaker 1: is going to be low scoring and they'll play conservative

1111
00:54:28,920 --> 00:54:31,279
Speaker 1: against an offense that likes to run the ball in

1112
00:54:31,320 --> 00:54:31,840
Speaker 1: the Eagles.

1113
00:54:31,840 --> 00:54:34,000
Speaker 2: So I mean, you can't lie that. Your spice senses

1114
00:54:34,000 --> 00:54:35,520
Speaker 2: have to be going off and being like, what the

1115
00:54:35,560 --> 00:54:36,480
Speaker 2: fuck is this number?

1116
00:54:36,680 --> 00:54:38,960
Speaker 1: They go off every single week with the Steelers. Now

1117
00:54:39,760 --> 00:54:42,440
Speaker 1: it doesn't none of it makes any sense. Yeah, it

1118
00:54:42,480 --> 00:54:44,560
Speaker 1: goes off every week with the Steelers and the Chiefs.

1119
00:54:44,600 --> 00:54:47,560
Speaker 1: It just does. Like the ways in which they are

1120
00:54:47,600 --> 00:54:53,000
Speaker 1: covering or not covering based on the trends. The Chiefs

1121
00:54:53,080 --> 00:54:55,680
Speaker 1: over as a favorite of three and the Steelers as

1122
00:54:55,680 --> 00:54:58,760
Speaker 1: an underdog. We say it happens six out of ten times,

1123
00:54:58,880 --> 00:55:00,719
Speaker 1: but now it's happened ten out of ten times, right,

1124
00:55:01,080 --> 00:55:04,520
Speaker 1: so it has to regress. I think that's what we're saying.

1125
00:55:04,560 --> 00:55:09,279
Speaker 1: And that's what we're nervous about. Simon. Can you name

1126
00:55:09,320 --> 00:55:11,799
Speaker 1: the best ticketing and app in the United States?

1127
00:55:12,320 --> 00:55:13,120
Speaker 2: Game Time?

1128
00:55:13,480 --> 00:55:16,960
Speaker 1: That's right, it's our beloved sponsor, game Time, As Simon

1129
00:55:17,040 --> 00:55:18,960
Speaker 1: and all of our listeners know, I love going to

1130
00:55:19,000 --> 00:55:22,479
Speaker 1: live games, NFL, NBA, college football, college basketball. In fact,

1131
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Speaker 1: when I did my three game three Nights sportacular with

1132
00:55:25,200 --> 00:55:28,000
Speaker 1: my son last month, I used game Time to buy

1133
00:55:28,040 --> 00:55:31,400
Speaker 1: tickets for all three games. Game Time is my favorite

1134
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1140
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1142
00:55:56,760 --> 00:56:01,839
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1145
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1147
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1148
00:56:22,520 --> 00:56:25,319
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1150
00:56:28,520 --> 00:56:31,560
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1151
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1153
00:56:44,080 --> 00:56:47,920
Speaker 1: Time today. What time is it? Game Time? All right?

1154
00:56:48,040 --> 00:56:52,399
Speaker 1: Time for our boosted underdog money line parlay with our

1155
00:56:52,480 --> 00:56:55,200
Speaker 1: friends at bet three sixty five. They're gonna boost the odds.

1156
00:56:55,400 --> 00:56:59,720
Speaker 1: They're gonna highlight this two team money line underdog parlay

1157
00:56:59,719 --> 00:57:02,000
Speaker 1: on their site all weekend. It's going to be under

1158
00:57:02,040 --> 00:57:06,440
Speaker 1: both game pages for the teams that we are highlighting. Remember,

1159
00:57:06,719 --> 00:57:09,880
Speaker 1: both games are eligible for Bet three six five's early

1160
00:57:09,920 --> 00:57:13,080
Speaker 1: payout promo. Your money line pick gets marked as a

1161
00:57:13,120 --> 00:57:16,520
Speaker 1: win if either team takes a seventeen point lead, even

1162
00:57:16,560 --> 00:57:18,920
Speaker 1: if they lose. If you want to bet this, better

1163
00:57:18,960 --> 00:57:21,640
Speaker 1: to bet three six five. The boost did parlay this

1164
00:57:21,680 --> 00:57:25,360
Speaker 1: week shouldn't be a surprise. Colts and Bucks. Find the

1165
00:57:25,360 --> 00:57:28,600
Speaker 1: boosts under the Colts or Bucks game pages on bet

1166
00:57:28,720 --> 00:57:33,480
Speaker 1: three six five. Simon and I have a money line

1167
00:57:33,960 --> 00:57:35,360
Speaker 1: underdog round Robin.

1168
00:57:36,440 --> 00:57:40,080
Speaker 4: There will come up Heayday, Halla lou Yo wanna pay day.

1169
00:57:40,400 --> 00:57:45,280
Speaker 4: There will come up payday Someday. Someday there will come

1170
00:57:45,360 --> 00:57:49,000
Speaker 4: up Heayday. Halla lou Yo wanna pay day. Tire will

1171
00:57:49,080 --> 00:57:50,640
Speaker 4: come up payday some day.

1172
00:57:52,440 --> 00:57:56,600
Speaker 1: Cleveland Browns, Indianapolis Colts. Simon, correct me if I'm wrong

1173
00:57:56,600 --> 00:58:02,640
Speaker 1: in any of these Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Sprooks Steelers, Miami Dolphins.

1174
00:58:02,920 --> 00:58:05,800
Speaker 1: Is there anybody I'm missing? Do you feel strongly about

1175
00:58:05,800 --> 00:58:06,760
Speaker 1: putting someone else in.

1176
00:58:07,680 --> 00:58:09,960
Speaker 2: As an Eagles fan, I have a strong opinion, but no,

1177
00:58:10,160 --> 00:58:10,640
Speaker 2: is it better?

1178
00:58:10,840 --> 00:58:13,560
Speaker 1: I'll let it roll, all right? What's your biggest bet?

1179
00:58:15,080 --> 00:58:18,320
Speaker 2: Colts definitely been hammering that, but again it's if you

1180
00:58:18,360 --> 00:58:20,240
Speaker 2: can find the four and a half four that's really

1181
00:58:20,280 --> 00:58:22,640
Speaker 2: the key for that bet. For me, green Bay, I

1182
00:58:22,680 --> 00:58:24,520
Speaker 2: just can't stop bett at two minus two and a half.

1183
00:58:24,520 --> 00:58:28,040
Speaker 2: And I know it's usually I don't want to take

1184
00:58:28,040 --> 00:58:29,920
Speaker 2: this large position on a favor but I can't help,

1185
00:58:29,960 --> 00:58:31,920
Speaker 2: but it just feels like it's such a good number

1186
00:58:32,000 --> 00:58:35,760
Speaker 2: right now. And last one is just Detroit at two.

1187
00:58:35,920 --> 00:58:37,880
Speaker 2: If you can get the two to me, that's a

1188
00:58:37,880 --> 00:58:40,280
Speaker 2: big deal right now, this Lins game. I just me

1189
00:58:40,320 --> 00:58:42,200
Speaker 2: and Chat have just seen so many games laying on

1190
00:58:42,240 --> 00:58:45,040
Speaker 2: two too that I just I don't want to get

1191
00:58:45,040 --> 00:58:46,280
Speaker 2: two and a half. I want to get to two,

1192
00:58:46,320 --> 00:58:48,640
Speaker 2: so right now, Yeah, my two biggest bets are two favorites,

1193
00:58:48,680 --> 00:58:51,160
Speaker 2: green Bay and Detroit. Wow.

1194
00:58:51,840 --> 00:58:56,680
Speaker 1: I know who says we can't adjust over it. You're

1195
00:58:56,720 --> 00:58:58,520
Speaker 1: just betting numbers, guys, that's all we're doing.

1196
00:59:00,040 --> 00:59:04,880
Speaker 2: All hope is lost. All that's left is relief. Let's

1197
00:59:04,880 --> 00:59:07,920
Speaker 2: play rolette.

1198
00:59:08,640 --> 00:59:15,160
Speaker 1: Scoot roulette. You won last week. I lost so Cleveland.

1199
00:59:15,240 --> 00:59:18,400
Speaker 1: You had Minnesota. Remember, I wanted to remember. I got

1200
00:59:18,400 --> 00:59:20,560
Speaker 1: to choose first. I chose Cleveland, and you were mad

1201
00:59:20,600 --> 00:59:22,560
Speaker 1: at me, and it happened.

1202
00:59:22,720 --> 00:59:23,959
Speaker 2: That was just mine games, That was all.

1203
00:59:28,400 --> 00:59:30,920
Speaker 1: Sheesh.

1204
00:59:31,040 --> 00:59:35,600
Speaker 2: I guess I will dig in and just say I

1205
00:59:35,640 --> 00:59:37,520
Speaker 2: just love green Bay. I'll take green Bay two and

1206
00:59:37,560 --> 00:59:37,960
Speaker 2: a half.

1207
00:59:38,280 --> 00:59:40,640
Speaker 1: All right, I'm gonna then I'm gonna take Indy. I

1208
00:59:40,640 --> 00:59:43,160
Speaker 1: was gonna go with Indya or Pittsburgh, but I'll take Indy.

1209
00:59:45,400 --> 00:59:47,480
Speaker 1: Before we get out of here, let's bring in Director

1210
00:59:47,480 --> 00:59:51,480
Speaker 1: of Research, Evan Abrams. Final word talk to us, Evan

1211
00:59:52,360 --> 00:59:58,000
Speaker 1: the last word with Evan Abrams. We're finished talking. So

1212
00:59:58,200 --> 00:59:59,400
Speaker 1: let's start with the bye week.

1213
00:59:59,760 --> 01:00:01,880
Speaker 3: I'llbviously buys behind us, but that means this is going

1214
01:00:01,920 --> 01:00:03,480
Speaker 3: to be the last week where teams are coming off

1215
01:00:03,480 --> 01:00:06,000
Speaker 3: of a bye. Interesting enough, teams are coming off of

1216
01:00:06,040 --> 01:00:09,040
Speaker 3: by facing a team who isn't just nine and thirteen

1217
01:00:09,080 --> 01:00:11,960
Speaker 3: straight up this season one hundred dollars better down seven

1218
01:00:12,000 --> 01:00:13,840
Speaker 3: hundred and thirteen dollars on the money line in this

1219
01:00:13,920 --> 01:00:16,280
Speaker 3: spot be the second worst season for teams off of

1220
01:00:16,360 --> 01:00:19,200
Speaker 3: bye over the last decade. Now this week, that's new

1221
01:00:19,200 --> 01:00:24,720
Speaker 3: England Houston, Baltimore, and Washington. Obviously a few pretty big

1222
01:00:24,720 --> 01:00:27,880
Speaker 3: favorites in there, so we will see if anyone crashes

1223
01:00:28,120 --> 01:00:31,520
Speaker 3: and burns. Let's go to this Philly in Pittsburgh game. Now,

1224
01:00:32,400 --> 01:00:35,680
Speaker 3: Simon was mentioning the George Pickens' information in terms of

1225
01:00:35,760 --> 01:00:38,479
Speaker 3: him being out this week. In my article I wrote

1226
01:00:38,520 --> 01:00:40,720
Speaker 3: on Action Network, which I write every week, I talked

1227
01:00:40,720 --> 01:00:43,080
Speaker 3: about his impact on the game. So someone should go,

1228
01:00:43,240 --> 01:00:45,360
Speaker 3: everyone should go check that out. But I want to

1229
01:00:45,400 --> 01:00:47,400
Speaker 3: talk about a stat with the game and then something

1230
01:00:47,440 --> 01:00:49,520
Speaker 3: off of it. So the Eagles obviously have the best

1231
01:00:49,600 --> 01:00:51,960
Speaker 3: rush attack in the NFL. They're averaging one hundred and

1232
01:00:52,080 --> 01:00:54,360
Speaker 3: ninety point six yards per game on the ground, best

1233
01:00:54,360 --> 01:00:56,440
Speaker 3: mark in the league. Now, it's interesting enough, and I

1234
01:00:56,480 --> 01:00:58,920
Speaker 3: looked this up because I was curious. Tomlin has done

1235
01:00:58,920 --> 01:01:01,680
Speaker 3: a really good job against rush offenses one hundred and

1236
01:01:01,760 --> 01:01:05,040
Speaker 3: fifty plus average. He's twenty three and sixteen against the

1237
01:01:05,120 --> 01:01:07,560
Speaker 3: number one hundred and seventy plus, he's nine and four

1238
01:01:07,760 --> 01:01:09,960
Speaker 3: one hundred and eighty plus, he's six and three. And

1239
01:01:10,000 --> 01:01:13,560
Speaker 3: the other interesting point, so Steelers great record seventy six

1240
01:01:13,640 --> 01:01:17,080
Speaker 3: percent win percentage entering this game. This is the most

1241
01:01:17,120 --> 01:01:19,920
Speaker 3: points he has gotten with his starting quarterback with that

1242
01:01:20,040 --> 01:01:22,280
Speaker 3: good of a record since two thousand and eight with

1243
01:01:22,320 --> 01:01:25,920
Speaker 3: Big Ben, So obviously that Bett Pickens news is massive,

1244
01:01:26,000 --> 01:01:28,040
Speaker 3: but it's interesting the number is that high, So I

1245
01:01:28,120 --> 01:01:30,440
Speaker 3: understand you guys are kind of waffling there, all right.

1246
01:01:30,480 --> 01:01:32,840
Speaker 3: I got two more quick ones here, so not too

1247
01:01:32,880 --> 01:01:36,240
Speaker 3: many further trips in the NFL than Tampa to LA.

1248
01:01:36,760 --> 01:01:38,920
Speaker 3: But in the past we've talked about travel as a

1249
01:01:38,960 --> 01:01:41,480
Speaker 3: negative thing, which it is in certain spots.

1250
01:01:41,520 --> 01:01:43,160
Speaker 2: But this is just a for what it's worth.

1251
01:01:43,400 --> 01:01:47,280
Speaker 3: Since twenty sixteen, teams going est to a road game

1252
01:01:47,320 --> 01:01:51,800
Speaker 3: in PST eighty four and sixty against the spread fifty

1253
01:01:51,880 --> 01:01:55,640
Speaker 3: eight now including twenty one and fourteen against the number

1254
01:01:55,680 --> 01:01:59,760
Speaker 3: the last two seasons. This week Green Bay and Tampa Bay,

1255
01:02:00,080 --> 01:02:02,880
Speaker 3: so both teams you guys like, so it fit well.

1256
01:02:02,920 --> 01:02:05,600
Speaker 3: And then I got one more for you. Now, everyone's

1257
01:02:05,600 --> 01:02:08,040
Speaker 3: gonna keep going against Kansas City. They're gonna keep winning

1258
01:02:08,080 --> 01:02:10,120
Speaker 3: and they're gonna keep not covering. But this is just

1259
01:02:10,200 --> 01:02:13,240
Speaker 3: an interesting piece of information going into this matchup against Cleveland.

1260
01:02:13,480 --> 01:02:15,880
Speaker 3: So if you like the Browns, here's some facts that

1261
01:02:15,920 --> 01:02:19,520
Speaker 3: will probably help Cleveland's defense. Has the second highest pressure

1262
01:02:19,560 --> 01:02:23,480
Speaker 3: percentage in the NFL. Mahomes has taken thirty five sacks

1263
01:02:23,480 --> 01:02:26,920
Speaker 3: this season, eleven more than any other year of his career.

1264
01:02:27,000 --> 01:02:30,520
Speaker 3: Between weeks one and fourteen, he's been sacked twenty three

1265
01:02:30,600 --> 01:02:33,560
Speaker 3: times in his last six games. His career high for

1266
01:02:33,600 --> 01:02:36,160
Speaker 3: a season before this year was just twenty eight in

1267
01:02:36,200 --> 01:02:39,920
Speaker 3: an entire year. And we talk about the James part

1268
01:02:39,960 --> 01:02:43,240
Speaker 3: of this, but the Chiefs only have ten takeaways as

1269
01:02:43,280 --> 01:02:46,320
Speaker 3: a defense this year. That is far fewer than any

1270
01:02:46,360 --> 01:02:49,880
Speaker 3: team who has ever started eleven and two. So Jamis

1271
01:02:49,960 --> 01:02:51,920
Speaker 3: might give them an easy one, but it's not like

1272
01:02:51,960 --> 01:02:53,680
Speaker 3: they've been taking it away from their opponents.

1273
01:02:53,760 --> 01:02:57,000
Speaker 1: So we'll see what happens this weekend. Evan, great stuff.

1274
01:02:57,040 --> 01:02:59,320
Speaker 1: You've confirmed our biases, which is all I can ask.

1275
01:02:59,360 --> 01:03:02,720
Speaker 1: And don't worry. The Chiefs have Steven Nelson to the rescue,

1276
01:03:02,760 --> 01:03:06,240
Speaker 1: so their takeover, their turnovers are just about to skyrocket.

1277
01:03:06,280 --> 01:03:09,680
Speaker 1: Their takeaways are gonna go nuts. As a reminder, the

1278
01:03:09,720 --> 01:03:12,600
Speaker 1: Favorite podcast is presented by Bet three sixty five and

1279
01:03:12,600 --> 01:03:15,120
Speaker 1: now new Bet three sixty five. Customers get one hundred

1280
01:03:15,120 --> 01:03:17,160
Speaker 1: and fifty dollars in bonus bets when you bet five

1281
01:03:17,280 --> 01:03:20,440
Speaker 1: dollars sign up using promo code Favorites deposit ten dollars,

1282
01:03:20,520 --> 01:03:22,360
Speaker 1: place a bet for five dollars to get one hundred

1283
01:03:22,400 --> 01:03:25,080
Speaker 1: and fifty dollars in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can

1284
01:03:25,120 --> 01:03:27,520
Speaker 1: be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures, and more.

1285
01:03:28,040 --> 01:03:30,840
Speaker 1: Whatever the moment, It's never ordinary. At bet three sixty five,

1286
01:03:31,120 --> 01:03:36,440
Speaker 1: must be twenty one or older in present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,

1287
01:03:36,560 --> 01:03:40,320
Speaker 1: North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen and

1288
01:03:40,400 --> 01:03:44,040
Speaker 1: older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler

1289
01:03:44,160 --> 01:03:47,040
Speaker 1: or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Conditioned

1290
01:03:47,120 --> 01:03:50,520
Speaker 1: restrictions apply. Simon and I will return with our next

1291
01:03:50,520 --> 01:03:52,720
Speaker 1: episode of The Favorites on the Action Network YouTube page

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01:03:52,760 --> 01:03:57,280
Speaker 1: Sunday night, seven thirty pm Eastern to recap NFL week fifteen.

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01:03:57,520 --> 01:04:00,760
Speaker 1: Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods wherever you get your pods,

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01:04:01,040 --> 01:04:03,680
Speaker 1: Rate review, subscribe, leave us five stars, say whatever you want.

1295
01:04:03,680 --> 01:04:15,520
Speaker 1: Feedback is the gift Until next time, Love you. Action

1296
01:04:15,680 --> 01:04:20,080
Speaker 1: Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or someone

1297
01:04:20,160 --> 01:04:23,080
Speaker 1: you care about has a gambling problem, help is available

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01:04:23,160 --> 01:04:25,720
Speaker 1: twenty four to seven at one eight hundred gambler