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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just about that Action boss.

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Speaker 3: All right.

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Speaker 2: Here we go from throwing out so I'm sitting up

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Speaker 2: to cash stop.

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Speaker 1: That's all we see. Most gamblers when they go to gamble,

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Speaker 1: they go to wind. That's incredible. Big bank, small banks.

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Speaker 1: I like to make money. All right? This is the

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Speaker 1: ultimate kabine. You want to.

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Speaker 3: Pass and we are underway. What is up?

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Speaker 1: Everybody? Welcome to the Action Network Podcast Papa Paluza Part two.

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Speaker 1: This is Chris Raybond here of Action Network and Fantasy Labs,

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Speaker 1: and today we're going three props deep with my guy,

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Speaker 1: Sean Kerner, the odds maker, and a very special guest

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Speaker 1: of the program, old friend of the program, the head

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Speaker 1: of betting from Matthew Berry's Fantasy Life, Matthew Friedman. You

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Speaker 1: can find them on x at matt fd Oracle Friedman.

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Speaker 1: Thanks for joining us.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I believe this is the seventh Propa Palooza we

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Speaker 2: have done together. Shout out to production team for actually

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Speaker 2: finding that stat for bothering to count and go that

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Speaker 2: deep in the archives. And rumor has it that I

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Speaker 2: am actually the person who created the phrase Propa palooza.

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Speaker 2: I mean, I wouldn't take credit or anything like. That's

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Speaker 2: not what I'm looking for. I'm just saying that's a

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Speaker 2: historical fact kind of interesting.

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Speaker 1: I mean, just have your lawyers call Actions lawyers and

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Speaker 1: make sure you get compensated for that. I didn't know that,

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Speaker 1: but Na, we'll get into our three props each. Just

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Speaker 1: a reminder real quick that with the Super Bowl just

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Speaker 1: a few days away, now is the perfect time to

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Speaker 1: upgrade to an Action Pro subscription because only Action Pro

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Speaker 1: subscribers get real time trick alerts from our experts like

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Speaker 1: Super Bowl prop Master Sean Kerner, plus all the tools

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Speaker 1: you need to turn a profit betting in twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 1: And right now, new subscribers can get forty dollars off

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Speaker 1: a year of Action Pro at Actionnetwork dot Com slash SB.

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Speaker 1: That's forty dollars off for the full year, so you'll

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Speaker 1: be covered for the Super Bowl, got March Madness coming up, MLB,

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Speaker 1: NBA and all the way into even next college football

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Speaker 1: season and next NFL season as well, So don't wait.

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Speaker 1: Visit Action Network dot Com slash SB get forty dollars

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Speaker 1: off Action Pro All right now, we're going to jump

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Speaker 1: in to the picks and as soon as we give

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Speaker 1: out our picks. In the YouTube chat, we'll be giving

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Speaker 1: you easy to use links that you can use to

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Speaker 1: instantly tail our bets, and as soon as we wrap,

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Speaker 1: we'll also drop a link in the episode description that

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Speaker 1: also gives you access to all of the picks that

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Speaker 1: we give out on the show. Freedman, you're hitting the

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Speaker 1: leadoff what you got? All right?

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Speaker 2: It feels very shocky to be like, hey, guys, I

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Speaker 2: think Jalen Hurts is going to score a touchdown. But

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Speaker 2: I think Jalen Hurts is going to score a touchdown,

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Speaker 2: and I would like your thoughts on the touchdown market

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Speaker 2: in general. I have sensed that over the past couple

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Speaker 2: of years there has been this trend where the guys

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Speaker 2: who like on the spectrum are relatively likely to score

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Speaker 2: a touchdown, their odds have generally tended to be undervalued,

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Speaker 2: and the guys who aren't as likely to score touchdowns

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Speaker 2: their odds haven't been as long as they should have been.

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Speaker 2: And I have, you know, some general thoughts as to

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Speaker 2: why that might be the case. Probably not the time

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Speaker 2: on this show to talk about it, but I think

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Speaker 2: Jalen Hurts minus one ten at DraftKings. I believe that

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Speaker 2: he is undervalued there. I have him projected for zero

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Speaker 2: point seventy three touchdowns in this game, minus won sixty

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Speaker 2: to score a touchdown. In eighteen games this year, he

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Speaker 2: has eighteen touchdowns. The math kind of checks out there

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Speaker 2: touchdowns and twelve of eighteen games, so a sixty six

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Speaker 2: point seven percent hit rate. And if you just kind

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Speaker 2: of look at what Jalen Hurts has done in the

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Speaker 2: Tush Push era, like that hit rate makes a lot

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Speaker 2: of sense because they use him a ton at the

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Speaker 2: goal line with minus one ten odds that has an

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Speaker 2: implied probability of fifty two point four percent. You compare

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Speaker 2: that to the historical hit rate the Jalen Hurts has

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Speaker 2: had and getting into the end zone. I think there's

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Speaker 2: just some extra value here. And it's not as if

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Speaker 2: the total for this game is like thirty eight and

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Speaker 2: a half points, Like this is a very respectable total

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Speaker 2: of forty eight and a half. Forty nine points touchdowns

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Speaker 2: will be scored in this game, and if that happens,

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Speaker 2: I think we see Jalen Hurts as one of the

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Speaker 2: guys who is likeliest to find the end zone. Jalen

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Speaker 2: Hurts anytime touchdown minus one ten. Again, I think this

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Speaker 2: should be closer to minus one sixty minus one sixty five.

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Speaker 2: So I do like this bet right here. I will

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Speaker 2: admit it's like Chalky, but I just don't think it's

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Speaker 2: it's short enough odds.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and to your point on you know the touchdown

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Speaker 1: market in general, it generally because you don't have the

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Speaker 1: no component until now because it is the Super Bowl,

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Speaker 1: which is a little tease for what's upcoming, but usually

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Speaker 1: don't have the no component to the bet. So I

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Speaker 1: think the entire market tends to be inflated. I feel

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Speaker 1: like this specific postseason, it's been a couple of guys

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Speaker 1: for me that like I kept coming back to, like

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Speaker 1: each and every week, uh Becau xavier' Worthy. I feel

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Speaker 1: like every week has been undervalued. Kareem Hunt, Games Cook

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Speaker 1: on the Bills. So there's been a few guys Sean,

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Speaker 1: any thoughts just on the on the general touchdown market

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Speaker 1: or the math there before we jump into the next pick.

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Speaker 4: No, I'm right there with you. With Xavier Worthy still

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Speaker 4: showing value, I think that's just like projecting him for

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Speaker 4: one to two rush attempts, like that's a big deal.

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Speaker 4: They get him involved around the goal line, but I

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Speaker 4: don't want to get ahead of myself. We have our

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Speaker 4: touchdown show tomorrow. I might want to use him then.

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Speaker 1: So he's already in the outline. I already took them. Sorry,

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Speaker 1: oh dam you already took him. Okay, that's that's all.

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Speaker 1: I'm just talking about him now. I'm comfortable. Baby got

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Speaker 1: my eye.

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Speaker 3: Though.

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Speaker 1: Man, well now, I mean now it's too late. Now

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Speaker 1: everyone's hearing this, and then might as don't just quick

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Speaker 1: slip that, guys, But all right, I'll go. I'll let

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Speaker 1: you go. Last year, I want you pull it out,

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Speaker 1: so I'll go next. And Friedman, this correlates perfectly. I

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Speaker 1: didn't I didn't plan this. But this correlates perfectly with

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Speaker 1: your bet. And as probably everyone watching knows, I love

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Speaker 1: betting no on things and betting unders, and the Super

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Speaker 1: Bowl is pretty much the only time when you can

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Speaker 1: bet on players not to score a touchdown. So my pick, say,

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Speaker 1: kun Markley, Baby, we're going full shade kwon here not

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Speaker 1: to score a touchdown plus one fifty five. Just the

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Speaker 1: ridiculous number. First of all, he's failed to score in

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Speaker 1: nine of his nineteen games this year. That's forty seven

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Speaker 1: point four percent. That's with the Eagles averaging twenty nine

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Speaker 1: zero point four points per game in the games that

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Speaker 1: he played. In this game, Philadelphia's implied to score between

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Speaker 1: twenty three and twenty four points, So automatically, you shouldn't

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Speaker 1: be seeing odds this high now if you just look

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Speaker 1: at it from kind of a schematic perspective, only six

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Speaker 1: of Barkley's eighteen rushing scores this year have come from

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Speaker 1: inside the ten yard line. Jalen Hurts has sixteen such touchdowns,

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Speaker 1: pretty much all of them. If they get to the one,

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Speaker 1: or even the two, maybe sometimes even the three, they'll

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Speaker 1: just do a couple of touch pushes in a row.

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Speaker 1: So Barkley is essentially going to need or most likely

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Speaker 1: going to need an explosive touchdown to get there, which

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Speaker 1: obviously very possible if we've been watching the playoffs, But

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Speaker 1: we know that the Chiefs defense, while they haven't faced

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Speaker 1: a strong schedule, neither has Barkley. The Chiefs defense giving

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Speaker 1: up the seventh lowest explosive rush rate this year, including

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Speaker 1: the postseason, It's around ten percent. So I'm projecting no

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Speaker 1: touchdown for bark We are much shorter odds about plus

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Speaker 1: one twenty four here, so I love this at plus

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Speaker 1: one fifty five. This is just a glorious, glorious time

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Speaker 1: of year when we can bet no on the always

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Speaker 1: inflated touchdown market. I was about to have just three

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Speaker 1: no touchdowns, but I feel I felt like people would

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Speaker 1: wouldn't love that too much, So I'm gonna diversify. I

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Speaker 1: don't worry, but Sean next, I don't know how you

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Speaker 1: follow that up.

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Speaker 4: But yeah, I don't know how I follow it up. Well,

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Speaker 4: I mean, yeah, we can finally bet no one touchdowns

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Speaker 4: are a player not to score. We've also just had

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Speaker 4: two hundred and seventy one NFL games this year where

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Speaker 4: you weren't able to bet on a punter prop. So

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Speaker 4: naturally I'm gonna have to kick it off here with

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Speaker 4: a punter prop.

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Speaker 1: Yeah.

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Speaker 4: So I'm gonna go with Matt Riiza, the punt God.

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Speaker 4: His shortest punt over thirty nine and a half yards,

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Speaker 4: you can get it at minus oneh eight, But fifty

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Speaker 4: five of his nine sixty one punts this year, so

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Speaker 4: ninety percent of the time his punts went forty yards

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Speaker 4: or longer. On the season, Week fifteen, against the Browns,

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Speaker 4: he had nine punts in a cold, rainy windy Cleve.

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Speaker 4: I don't know what they call that stadium, but Cleveland

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Speaker 4: Stadium where he had three punts failed to clear forty yards.

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Speaker 4: That accounted for half of his six total punts on

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Speaker 4: the season that didn't clear forty plus yards. So because

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Speaker 4: of that, he only had four of nineteen games this

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Speaker 4: year where he had a punt goes shorter than thirty

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Speaker 4: nine a half yards, So that means he would have

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Speaker 4: cashed this prop seventy nine percent of the time this season.

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Speaker 4: I'm thinking, you know, being indoors here probably helps raise

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Speaker 4: his floor and lowers his ceiling a bit because he's

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Speaker 4: not going to be punting against the wind or with

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Speaker 4: the wind, So I just think he's going to have

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Speaker 4: a higher floor, which this market is basically, you know,

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Speaker 4: a floor market. So I have his medium being closer

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Speaker 4: to forty one and a half, but those two yards

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Speaker 4: are massive in a market like this, So I give

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Speaker 4: him about sixty five percent chance his shortest punt is

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Speaker 4: forty plus yards or longer. Some books have forty and

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Speaker 4: a half. I still like that. I have that clearing

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Speaker 4: or not clearing whatever fifty eight percent of the time,

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Speaker 4: so I like over thirty nine and a half and

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Speaker 4: you can get if you get forty and a half.

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Speaker 1: I like that as well. There you go. I mean,

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Speaker 1: this is this is very unbrand. You had Freedman with

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Speaker 1: some traw, you had me with a no touchdown, and

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Speaker 1: Sean with a punk profit. Not only can you bet

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Speaker 1: punt prop, you can bet shortest like usually you can

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Speaker 1: only bet longest. So yeah, this is this is really

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Speaker 1: a glorious, glorious time of year. All right, we got

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Speaker 1: two more props each and just a quick message. You know,

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Speaker 1: we're all gambles here. And one of the worst things

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Speaker 1: none of that, none of those catches. It was really

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Speaker 1: and more. Kidd ash back all right, Freedman, pick two

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Speaker 1: where you at all right?

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Speaker 2: It's almost impossible to follow up Sean, who's just nailing

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Speaker 2: it with a punter prop. By the way, I love Sean.

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Speaker 2: The pun definitely intentional. I'm gonna kick it off with

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Speaker 2: a punting prop. Shout out there, Kareem Hunt under forty

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Speaker 2: four and a half rushing yards. This is now minus

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Speaker 2: one fourteen at DraftKings, I have this projected at forty.

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Speaker 2: The matchup is tough. The Eagles are number two in

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Speaker 2: defensive rush EPA this year, and the Chiefs running game

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Speaker 2: has really struggled ever since they moved Joe Toney, their

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Speaker 2: first team All Pro left guard, ever since they moved

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Speaker 2: him to left tackle in week fifteen, which with him

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Speaker 2: at left tackle, that means they are playing Mike Calliendo

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Speaker 2: just you know, a backup to the backup. They're playing

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Speaker 2: him at left guard, and they're just not getting the

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Speaker 2: interior push the way that they previously were. And Tony,

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Speaker 2: as good of a player as he is, he is

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Speaker 2: playing out of position and so they're still not able

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Speaker 2: to do all that they would probably want to do

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Speaker 2: when they run to the outside. So that running game

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Speaker 2: in general is just diminished with Tony playing at left tackle,

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Speaker 2: and you know, Kareem Hunt, older guy. Later in the season,

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Speaker 2: just you know, the efficiency is declining. So even though

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Speaker 2: he is the lead back in that offense right now,

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Speaker 2: I just don't think he's going to have the efficiency

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Speaker 2: that he would need to go over forty four and

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Speaker 2: a half. So sorry, so forty four and a half

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Speaker 2: minus one fourteen DraftKings, uh, one of my favorite. I

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Speaker 2: mean it's it's not it's not like a sexy prop.

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Speaker 2: It's not a puncher prop. It's not betting a guy

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Speaker 2: not to score a touchdown. It's just being a wet

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Speaker 2: blanket of like, no, I don't think this guy's gonna

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Speaker 2: get enough yards.

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Speaker 1: I'm with you, Brebn. It's just funny because Sean and

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Speaker 1: I have been debating this. I feel like, like going

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Speaker 1: back even into the regular season, like do we just

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Speaker 1: who do we fade? Yeah? Like who do we fade?

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Speaker 1: And it's the answer is usually p Checo. But like

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Speaker 1: in this game, I think we are at a point

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Speaker 1: where I've already bet the Chiefs team total rushing yards

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Speaker 1: under I think one fifteen and the total game combined

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Speaker 1: rushing yards under to eighty five. So I agree. I

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Speaker 1: just think the rushing yardage market for the Chiefs is inflated,

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Speaker 1: like wh who's getting all of these yards, Like in

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Speaker 1: the fact that they he didn't move Tuney back to guard,

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Speaker 1: which was I thought, you know, maybe they considered because

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Speaker 1: you have that beast of an interior line for the Eagles,

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Speaker 1: you know, maybe he would be more useful at guard.

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Speaker 1: But the fact that they're keeping him at tackle kind

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Speaker 1: of shows they're prioritizing the passing game. And I agree

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Speaker 1: Toney is like a fifty something run blocking great at tackle,

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Speaker 1: and Cali Yendo's the same thing. So you're getting worse

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Speaker 1: at both spots.

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Speaker 2: And here's here's one thing I will add to this

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Speaker 2: idea of sort of blanket fading across the board the Chiefs.

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Speaker 2: I would say, if you look in the SGP markets

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Speaker 2: and looking at the correlation, I would be interested to

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Speaker 2: see how it is that the books price some of

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Speaker 2: these things out, because I could see how a sportsbook

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Speaker 2: might say, like Okay, Kareem Hunt and Isaiah Pacheco are

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Speaker 2: inversely correlated, where if one of these guys hits the over,

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Speaker 2: the other one is likely to hit the under. But

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Speaker 2: there's also the possibility that the Chiefs just go super

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Speaker 2: pass heavy, or that the Chiefs are in a really

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Speaker 2: tough matchup, and that actually, if Kareem Hunt goes under,

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Speaker 2: Pacheco could also go under, and that could be correlated

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Speaker 2: just because of the matchup in the game state the

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Speaker 2: way the Chiefs are approaching it. So I would say,

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Speaker 2: like I would kind of be interested in looking in

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Speaker 2: the SGP markets and getting in a sense for how

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Speaker 2: different books price, you know, the correlation between different runners.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and don't forget super Bowl fifty six says, never

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Speaker 1: forget samajp Ryan is still still here, so he could

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Speaker 1: just be the pass down back. Oh Man, But no,

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Speaker 1: I agree. I think the Chiefs are overpriced in the

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Speaker 1: in the run game. I think Mahomes is probably a

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Speaker 1: good shot to lead that team in rushing. Actually, I

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Speaker 1: don't know if I've seen that prop just for the Chiefs,

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Speaker 1: but if I did, I would probably bet Mahomes. There

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Speaker 1: probably more on Mahomes later as a runner. By the way,

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Speaker 1: that's what we call it tease folks. All right, I'm

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Speaker 1: on next. My second pick is going to be more

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Speaker 1: field goals combined by both teams made in this game

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Speaker 1: than passing touchdowns are thrown at plus one thirty. You

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Speaker 1: can find this on DraftKings in the Super Bowl Special

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Speaker 1: Game head to head special section. So if you look

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Speaker 1: at the Chiefs in eighteen my home starts this year,

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Speaker 1: there's been more combined field goals ten times and more

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Speaker 1: pass touchdowns five times, with three times they were tied.

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Speaker 1: And then for the Eagles in eighteen Jalen Hurts starts,

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Speaker 1: there are more combined field goals than passing touchdowns eleven times,

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Speaker 1: more passing touchdowns than field goals only three times, and

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Speaker 1: it was tied four times. So overall fifty eight percent

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Speaker 1: of the time, which would equate to minus one forty eyes.

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Speaker 1: And remember you're getting this at plus one thirty that

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Speaker 1: would equate to minus one forty. It's happened combined between

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Speaker 1: the two teams. I am projecting in my model just

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Speaker 1: over three and a half field goals made and about

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Speaker 1: four point two attempts, so there's upside for even more there.

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Speaker 1: And I have just under three combined passing touchdown so

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Speaker 1: I bet this two about minus one twenty here, but

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Speaker 1: love that we're still getting plus money on this one.

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Speaker 1: So this is another kind of example of just in general,

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Speaker 1: I think it's the Super Bowl. People want to people

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Speaker 1: want to see offense, so the offensive markets in general,

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Speaker 1: are you know, kind of inflated? So you know, I know,

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Speaker 1: I've kind of bet some unders on some rushing stuff

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Speaker 1: and whatnot, but there's also some passing game stuff to fade,

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Speaker 1: and I suspect, you know, a lot of these numbers

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Speaker 1: will go while we go up as we as we

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Speaker 1: approach the game.

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Speaker 2: Ravens, I love this, and I have a couple of

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Speaker 2: questions here, So or like an idea like the fifty

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Speaker 2: eight point three percent historical hit rate, I'm imagining that

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Speaker 2: has like a combination of indoor and outdoor games. The

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Speaker 2: fact that this is an indoor game I think helps

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Speaker 2: way more the field goal kickers than the possibility of

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Speaker 2: more passing touchdowns. So I mean, I think if you

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Speaker 2: were looking at just indoor games, that number of fifty

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Speaker 2: eight point three percent would probably be even higher.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and i've you're looking at a guy that's already

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Speaker 1: bet under two and a half combined passing touchdowns that

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Speaker 1: some plus money. I forget the exact number, but at

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Speaker 1: plus money. And I also bet no miskicks because all

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Speaker 1: of Elliott's miskicks except for one, have been outdoors this year.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, a lot of things kind of work in

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Speaker 1: favor here, and I think a lot of people, a

358
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Speaker 1: lot of sharper money's coming in on the under I'm

359
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Speaker 1: in agreement with that as well, So it could just

360
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Speaker 1: a little inflation just because of that as well. But nevertheless,

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Speaker 1: let's go to Sean for pick number two.

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Speaker 4: What you got, Well, you know what, I liked Friedman's

363
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Speaker 4: props so much, I'm going to piggyback it a bit here.

364
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Speaker 4: I'm meant to go with Kareem Hunt under eight and

365
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Speaker 4: a half rushing yards in the first quarter at minus

366
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Speaker 4: one ten. You know, despite Isaiah Pacheco returning the action.

367
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Speaker 4: You know, in week thirteen, this is when Raybaugh and

368
00:19:59,240 --> 00:20:03,480
Speaker 4: I started debating Chiefs backfield every week since then, you know,

369
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Speaker 4: Kareem Hunts remained the Chiefs lead back. However, the first quarter,

370
00:20:09,040 --> 00:20:11,480
Speaker 4: there's any quarter they get Isaiah Pacheco, of all, it's

371
00:20:11,560 --> 00:20:15,639
Speaker 4: the first quarter. He's handled forty three percent of the

372
00:20:15,720 --> 00:20:19,480
Speaker 4: rush attempts in the first quarter, Hunt just thirty four percent. Obviously,

373
00:20:19,480 --> 00:20:22,000
Speaker 4: that's trending the other way. I'm expecting Hunt to get

374
00:20:22,040 --> 00:20:24,720
Speaker 4: a little bit more than that going forward. But you know,

375
00:20:24,920 --> 00:20:27,479
Speaker 4: they just tend to use Hunt at a high rate

376
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Speaker 4: later in the game. Once the defense is worn down

377
00:20:29,800 --> 00:20:32,720
Speaker 4: a bit and or they're trying to protect a lead.

378
00:20:33,359 --> 00:20:36,760
Speaker 4: Also the first quarters when they tend to give Xavier

379
00:20:36,800 --> 00:20:40,240
Speaker 4: Worthy his rush attempts too. He's He's had ten percent

380
00:20:40,320 --> 00:20:43,359
Speaker 4: of rush attempts in the first quarter dating back to

381
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Speaker 4: week thirteen. So they're just looking the ways to catch

382
00:20:45,440 --> 00:20:47,320
Speaker 4: the defense off card. I don't know if the game

383
00:20:47,320 --> 00:20:49,800
Speaker 4: plan will be to bang it up the middle for

384
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Speaker 4: two three yards with Kareem Hunt right away. That's more

385
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Speaker 4: of a game flow type plan in my opinion. So

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Speaker 4: since week thirteen, Hunts averaged nine point nine rushing yards

387
00:21:00,080 --> 00:21:02,240
Speaker 4: in the first quarter, but he stayed under eight and

388
00:21:02,280 --> 00:21:04,840
Speaker 4: a half yards in five of those seven games, so

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00:21:04,920 --> 00:21:07,159
Speaker 4: seventy one percent of the time. It's sort of a

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00:21:07,280 --> 00:21:11,520
Speaker 4: lesson of mean versus median because the two games he

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Speaker 4: did clear it, he went way over. He had thirty

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00:21:13,760 --> 00:21:17,000
Speaker 4: four yards and eighteen yards in those two games. So

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Speaker 4: I guess I have, you know, a twenty nine percent chance,

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00:21:19,520 --> 00:21:22,120
Speaker 4: look like an idiot here, But most of the time

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Speaker 4: he tends to stay under eight and a half. His

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Speaker 4: median is actually five and a half for the first

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Speaker 4: quarter over this stretch. So everything that Freeman said, I

398
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Speaker 4: agree with the Eagles. You know, they have a good

399
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Speaker 4: run defense, they rank second in DBA. But the Eagles

400
00:21:35,840 --> 00:21:39,080
Speaker 4: offense is also extremely run heavy. Exp I expect them

401
00:21:39,080 --> 00:21:40,960
Speaker 4: to be run heavy out of the gate, so they're

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00:21:40,960 --> 00:21:43,040
Speaker 4: gonna be able to bleed clock, really limit the number

403
00:21:43,080 --> 00:21:45,399
Speaker 4: of plays that the Chiefs can even run in the

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00:21:45,440 --> 00:21:47,719
Speaker 4: first quarter. So I think that helps here. So I'm

405
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Speaker 4: projecting Hunt for about two point three rush attempts in

406
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Speaker 4: the first quarter. That gets me a median of six

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00:21:53,160 --> 00:21:56,360
Speaker 4: and a half yards. Every yard in this market is massive,

408
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Speaker 4: So under eight and a half I have hitting around

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Speaker 4: sixty percent of the time. Some books have seven and

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Speaker 4: a half. I have that hitting under fifty five percent

411
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Speaker 4: of the time. So love Hunt to stay under eight

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Speaker 4: and a half rushing yards in the first quarter.

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Speaker 1: You guys are making me nervous now. We do this

414
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Speaker 1: every week. We were like, all right, Hunts the guy

415
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Speaker 1: to fade, and he's just not. It's Pacheco. But hopefully,

416
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Speaker 1: like I said, I agree, I think that I think

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Speaker 1: that these markets are overvalued and for what it's worth,

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Speaker 1: yeah that the Chiefs for Checko's still the starter. It's

419
00:22:28,040 --> 00:22:30,159
Speaker 1: just I don't think they go away from because the

420
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Speaker 1: defense is worn down. I think they get worn down

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00:22:32,760 --> 00:22:34,960
Speaker 1: with watching Pacheco just run into the backs of his

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Speaker 1: a lignemen or fall down right as he catches up past.

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Speaker 1: But that's neither here nor there, Friedman. Let's close it

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Speaker 1: out with each of our third picks. You're up first,

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Speaker 1: which you got, all right?

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Speaker 2: I'm looking at Patrick Mahomes under twenty nine and a

427
00:22:51,240 --> 00:22:54,280
Speaker 2: half rushing yards. This is minus one oh seven At DraftKings,

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Speaker 2: I was projected for twenty four point seven. So some

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Speaker 2: thoughts on this, And I will say, I actually do

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Speaker 2: want to know what you guys think about this, because

431
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Speaker 2: like there's a chance, you know, Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs,

432
00:23:05,560 --> 00:23:07,640
Speaker 2: super Bowl on the line, willing to run a little

433
00:23:07,680 --> 00:23:11,719
Speaker 2: bit more, Andy Reid, willing to call some designed rushing

434
00:23:11,760 --> 00:23:14,119
Speaker 2: plays a little bit more for Patrick Mahomes. So like,

435
00:23:14,359 --> 00:23:17,399
Speaker 2: there's the chance that this just this number is just

436
00:23:17,440 --> 00:23:20,919
Speaker 2: wrong and Mahomes goes for like forty five yards and

437
00:23:21,119 --> 00:23:23,760
Speaker 2: I'm just a loser on this one. But only two

438
00:23:23,880 --> 00:23:28,399
Speaker 2: quarterbacks have gone over this number against the Eagles, Jaden

439
00:23:28,520 --> 00:23:31,960
Speaker 2: Daniels he did it twice, and Lamar Jackson. So pretty much,

440
00:23:32,000 --> 00:23:34,000
Speaker 2: if you're not like one of the two best rushing

441
00:23:34,080 --> 00:23:37,320
Speaker 2: quarterbacks in the league. You know you haven't been able

442
00:23:37,760 --> 00:23:41,000
Speaker 2: to hit this mark against the Eagles. Mahomes has gone

443
00:23:41,160 --> 00:23:43,480
Speaker 2: over this number of twenty nine and a half just

444
00:23:43,600 --> 00:23:47,159
Speaker 2: four games this year. Mahomes's line was twenty three and

445
00:23:47,160 --> 00:23:50,760
Speaker 2: a half for the AFC Championship, twenty nine and a

446
00:23:50,840 --> 00:23:52,600
Speaker 2: half and thirty and a half where I bet it

447
00:23:52,640 --> 00:23:54,359
Speaker 2: earlier in the week, But twenty nine and a half

448
00:23:54,440 --> 00:23:56,840
Speaker 2: would still be the highest mark that Mahomes has had

449
00:23:56,920 --> 00:23:59,639
Speaker 2: in this market this year. I mean, if you're telling

450
00:23:59,680 --> 00:24:02,560
Speaker 2: me that I can bet a guy at the highest

451
00:24:02,600 --> 00:24:05,080
Speaker 2: mark that he's had at any point this year, I'm

452
00:24:05,080 --> 00:24:07,920
Speaker 2: probably going to just auto bet the under on it,

453
00:24:08,000 --> 00:24:10,480
Speaker 2: even if I do know that there could be some

454
00:24:10,760 --> 00:24:14,280
Speaker 2: reasonable reasons for his number to move up. But this

455
00:24:14,440 --> 00:24:17,679
Speaker 2: just feels like something of an overreaction to what we

456
00:24:17,720 --> 00:24:20,520
Speaker 2: saw out of Mahomes last game, where he had a

457
00:24:20,560 --> 00:24:25,040
Speaker 2: season high eleven carries and had like sixty something yards rushing.

458
00:24:25,520 --> 00:24:28,280
Speaker 2: I think this just feels like too aggressive of a move.

459
00:24:28,320 --> 00:24:31,560
Speaker 2: And I will also say one thing that really intrigues

460
00:24:31,600 --> 00:24:35,320
Speaker 2: me is if you wanted to put this into an SGP,

461
00:24:35,920 --> 00:24:39,720
Speaker 2: you could take the over on Mahomes rushing attempt prop

462
00:24:40,160 --> 00:24:43,359
Speaker 2: of five and a half and take the under on

463
00:24:43,480 --> 00:24:46,640
Speaker 2: this and you could get some really sweet in verse

464
00:24:46,720 --> 00:24:51,160
Speaker 2: correlation going there. But the thing is, like Mahomes could

465
00:24:51,240 --> 00:24:53,720
Speaker 2: kneel down at the end of the game a couple

466
00:24:53,720 --> 00:24:57,480
Speaker 2: of times, which would be awesome for both of those

467
00:24:57,560 --> 00:25:00,560
Speaker 2: legs to have a chance of hitting here. So I

468
00:25:00,600 --> 00:25:02,600
Speaker 2: think even if you just kind of want to do

469
00:25:02,720 --> 00:25:05,320
Speaker 2: the under of twenty nine and a half rushing yards

470
00:25:05,359 --> 00:25:08,080
Speaker 2: minus one oh seven a DraftKings, I think that's fine.

471
00:25:08,359 --> 00:25:11,920
Speaker 2: But I really do like the idea of going under

472
00:25:12,000 --> 00:25:15,280
Speaker 2: twenty nine and a half and going Patrick Mahomes to

473
00:25:15,320 --> 00:25:19,439
Speaker 2: have six or more rushing attempts in this game and

474
00:25:19,480 --> 00:25:21,720
Speaker 2: that gets you up to plus four to twenty five

475
00:25:21,920 --> 00:25:25,680
Speaker 2: in an SGP at DraftKings. And I think both of

476
00:25:25,720 --> 00:25:28,240
Speaker 2: those legs have a pretty decent chance of hitting and

477
00:25:28,320 --> 00:25:32,080
Speaker 2: that the book is mispricing the correlation of those two

478
00:25:32,160 --> 00:25:33,320
Speaker 2: different legs.

479
00:25:34,520 --> 00:25:37,760
Speaker 1: Don any thoughts on where you're at with with Mahomes

480
00:25:37,800 --> 00:25:39,840
Speaker 1: and is rushing numbers.

481
00:25:39,880 --> 00:25:43,679
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm right around there. We've talked about his scrambling

482
00:25:43,760 --> 00:25:47,240
Speaker 4: rate just goes way up in the playoffs. So I

483
00:25:47,359 --> 00:25:49,440
Speaker 4: kind of agree with Freeman that the market knows that,

484
00:25:49,520 --> 00:25:52,760
Speaker 4: so they're kind of inflating his number a ton here

485
00:25:52,880 --> 00:25:55,119
Speaker 4: and just yeah, you kind of want the Chiefs to win,

486
00:25:55,200 --> 00:25:58,560
Speaker 4: you need kneel downs, but with Mahomes, you know most

487
00:25:58,640 --> 00:26:01,479
Speaker 4: quarterbacks and kneel down for minus If there's anybody that

488
00:26:01,560 --> 00:26:04,479
Speaker 4: you can you know, if you need like a minus

489
00:26:04,520 --> 00:26:06,560
Speaker 4: five minus ten yard kneel down.

490
00:26:06,480 --> 00:26:07,240
Speaker 1: Mahomes is the guy.

491
00:26:07,359 --> 00:26:10,119
Speaker 4: That's how I think a couple of us yeash that

492
00:26:10,400 --> 00:26:12,920
Speaker 4: under a few years ago. So you with Mahomes, you

493
00:26:12,960 --> 00:26:15,960
Speaker 4: always have that, uh in the back pocket just in case.

494
00:26:16,640 --> 00:26:18,440
Speaker 4: But yeah, I do think this number is a bit

495
00:26:18,480 --> 00:26:20,639
Speaker 4: in play because everybody knows that he runs more in

496
00:26:20,720 --> 00:26:22,960
Speaker 4: the playoffs. So uh yeah, yeah, I agree for you

497
00:26:23,040 --> 00:26:23,400
Speaker 4: in here.

498
00:26:24,080 --> 00:26:25,920
Speaker 1: I think it's as as with a lot of things

499
00:26:25,920 --> 00:26:27,840
Speaker 1: in this game, it's gonna come down to that that

500
00:26:27,960 --> 00:26:31,880
Speaker 1: chess match between the quarterback and the opposing defensive coordinator.

501
00:26:31,920 --> 00:26:35,680
Speaker 1: Because last game, what what happened was Buffalo, known as

502
00:26:35,680 --> 00:26:39,840
Speaker 1: a zone team, ended up playing a lot more man coverage.

503
00:26:39,880 --> 00:26:42,840
Speaker 1: And you know, Mahomes is running around a little bit now, Fangio.

504
00:26:43,280 --> 00:26:44,920
Speaker 1: He's kind of done it both ways. Like I don't

505
00:26:44,920 --> 00:26:47,600
Speaker 1: think he's gonna blitz, but you know, he's kind of

506
00:26:47,600 --> 00:26:49,440
Speaker 1: done it where he's played you know, man coverage because

507
00:26:49,440 --> 00:26:51,399
Speaker 1: he has the horses, but he's also played he likes

508
00:26:51,440 --> 00:26:54,120
Speaker 1: to play zone, and Mahomes has struggled, especially on third

509
00:26:54,160 --> 00:26:57,399
Speaker 1: downs against some of those like Cover A quarters coverage

510
00:26:57,440 --> 00:27:00,199
Speaker 1: and Cover six kind of schemes, that zone scheme that

511
00:27:00,240 --> 00:27:03,200
Speaker 1: Fangio likes to run. So that that actually might be

512
00:27:03,320 --> 00:27:05,879
Speaker 1: just a point, you know, kind of keep Mahomes in

513
00:27:05,920 --> 00:27:09,119
Speaker 1: the pocket and make them, you know, just make some

514
00:27:09,200 --> 00:27:11,679
Speaker 1: throws against zone with these with these receivers that some

515
00:27:11,720 --> 00:27:14,280
Speaker 1: of them, you know, he hasn't played with all that long.

516
00:27:14,520 --> 00:27:16,600
Speaker 1: You know, maybe that's the chest. I think that's ultimately

517
00:27:16,680 --> 00:27:19,040
Speaker 1: going to determine it. Like if they're just turning and running,

518
00:27:19,560 --> 00:27:22,200
Speaker 1: I would be scared of this prop like Neil downs

519
00:27:22,280 --> 00:27:25,080
Speaker 1: or not, just because you know Mahomes. But but what

520
00:27:25,119 --> 00:27:27,920
Speaker 1: you do have working for you is a lot of

521
00:27:27,960 --> 00:27:30,880
Speaker 1: times when Mahomes scrambling around back there, you know what happens.

522
00:27:31,040 --> 00:27:35,119
Speaker 1: The referees are like Kansas City needs to win penalty

523
00:27:35,400 --> 00:27:38,960
Speaker 1: and the play is just nullified. So yeah, things working

524
00:27:39,000 --> 00:27:43,200
Speaker 1: in your favor as well. I think the longest Harry,

525
00:27:43,240 --> 00:27:45,200
Speaker 1: I think it's thirteen and a half for Mahomes under

526
00:27:45,320 --> 00:27:48,560
Speaker 1: That's also interesting because I'm showing like sixty percent chance

527
00:27:48,600 --> 00:27:50,959
Speaker 1: of him going under that one sixty one percent. So

528
00:27:51,119 --> 00:27:54,040
Speaker 1: I've thought about it as well. We'll see see how it,

529
00:27:54,800 --> 00:27:57,840
Speaker 1: see if his market moves further up coaches of the game.

530
00:27:57,880 --> 00:28:01,480
Speaker 1: But I'm gonna for my last pick, I'm gonna go

531
00:28:01,800 --> 00:28:07,439
Speaker 1: with no interceptions in this game. So plus two hundred.

532
00:28:07,880 --> 00:28:10,120
Speaker 1: You can find this the DraftKings first of the game,

533
00:28:10,200 --> 00:28:12,439
Speaker 1: first turnover, and then you go to the players and

534
00:28:12,480 --> 00:28:15,760
Speaker 1: then you click no player to get an interception. I'm

535
00:28:15,800 --> 00:28:18,920
Speaker 1: sure there's other places to find similar prop, but that's

536
00:28:18,920 --> 00:28:21,200
Speaker 1: where I found it. So it's at plus two hundred.

537
00:28:21,280 --> 00:28:25,560
Speaker 1: Now let's look at this. Mahomes started the year throwing

538
00:28:25,640 --> 00:28:28,320
Speaker 1: an interception, and each of his first seven games started

539
00:28:28,600 --> 00:28:31,920
Speaker 1: since then just once in his past eleven games has

540
00:28:31,920 --> 00:28:35,000
Speaker 1: Mahomes thrown a pick. None in his last eight. Jalen

541
00:28:35,040 --> 00:28:37,639
Speaker 1: Hurts kind of the same story. He famously, you know,

542
00:28:37,680 --> 00:28:40,440
Speaker 1: threw those four picks in his first three games, and

543
00:28:40,480 --> 00:28:42,840
Speaker 1: then then I think you know, shortly after that they

544
00:28:42,840 --> 00:28:46,040
Speaker 1: had to buy they discussed, all right, let's be more conservative,

545
00:28:47,080 --> 00:28:50,240
Speaker 1: and the interceptions just disappeared. One pick for Jalen Hurts

546
00:28:50,280 --> 00:28:53,040
Speaker 1: and his last fifteen games started, and I wanted those starts.

547
00:28:53,040 --> 00:28:54,920
Speaker 1: He left early, so you could call it fourteen. But

548
00:28:55,000 --> 00:28:58,360
Speaker 1: either way, these quarterbacks have combined for no interceptions in

549
00:28:58,400 --> 00:29:02,400
Speaker 1: their last sixteen the seventeen games started compared depending on

550
00:29:02,440 --> 00:29:04,360
Speaker 1: what you want to treat that Hurts game as. And

551
00:29:04,400 --> 00:29:08,280
Speaker 1: then they've combined for just two games with interceptions over

552
00:29:08,320 --> 00:29:13,840
Speaker 1: their last twenty six combined start. So these guys are

553
00:29:13,840 --> 00:29:16,040
Speaker 1: really taking care of the ball. Both of these teams

554
00:29:16,120 --> 00:29:19,600
Speaker 1: cover well and can place the man covered, so there

555
00:29:19,640 --> 00:29:22,360
Speaker 1: will be some close calls. But you know, the Eagles,

556
00:29:22,520 --> 00:29:24,040
Speaker 1: I think they're going to come out and run the

557
00:29:24,080 --> 00:29:26,520
Speaker 1: ball as much as they can early on. And the

558
00:29:26,600 --> 00:29:29,400
Speaker 1: Chiefs with that quicker passing game, the fact that Mahomes

559
00:29:29,600 --> 00:29:32,680
Speaker 1: doesn't just go deep ball hunting these days, and Fangio's

560
00:29:32,680 --> 00:29:36,040
Speaker 1: defense is built to protect that anyway. You know, So

561
00:29:36,360 --> 00:29:38,840
Speaker 1: this this this offense is just a lot more dink

562
00:29:38,880 --> 00:29:42,600
Speaker 1: and dunk efficient, which means fewer chances for interceptions. And

563
00:29:42,640 --> 00:29:44,360
Speaker 1: the Chiefs have done, I think a good job over

564
00:29:44,360 --> 00:29:48,720
Speaker 1: the last two postseasons kind of consolidating the guys they're targeting.

565
00:29:48,760 --> 00:29:52,280
Speaker 1: Even so you're seeing mostly like Chelsea Worthy, and you

566
00:29:52,320 --> 00:29:56,440
Speaker 1: know that's you know, that's really it. So those guys

567
00:29:56,560 --> 00:29:58,360
Speaker 1: we should trust for the most part, I are Worthy

568
00:29:58,400 --> 00:30:01,400
Speaker 1: almost gave went up last week. But yeah, I think

569
00:30:01,440 --> 00:30:04,720
Speaker 1: that this is still at two to one. Pretty interesting,

570
00:30:05,600 --> 00:30:08,280
Speaker 1: pretty intriguing number here. I bet it's about minus one

571
00:30:08,560 --> 00:30:12,920
Speaker 1: eighty about plus one eighty five. Excuse me? So like this,

572
00:30:13,800 --> 00:30:16,880
Speaker 1: like both of these quarterbacks not to throw a pick

573
00:30:17,160 --> 00:30:17,760
Speaker 1: in this game.

574
00:30:18,320 --> 00:30:21,120
Speaker 2: I like this, Raybon, I like this one. I think

575
00:30:21,760 --> 00:30:23,880
Speaker 2: one thing that also, I mean, this is like qualitative.

576
00:30:23,880 --> 00:30:25,480
Speaker 2: But one thing I also like is that both of

577
00:30:25,520 --> 00:30:28,000
Speaker 2: these quarterbacks have played in the super Bowl before, Like

578
00:30:28,040 --> 00:30:29,800
Speaker 2: I don't think you're as likely to get sort of

579
00:30:29,840 --> 00:30:32,320
Speaker 2: like those early game jitters where a guy just like

580
00:30:32,440 --> 00:30:36,400
Speaker 2: makes an absolute trash throw because he's nervous, Like you

581
00:30:36,440 --> 00:30:38,560
Speaker 2: have two veterans who have been in this spot before,

582
00:30:38,600 --> 00:30:39,800
Speaker 2: and I think that helps.

583
00:30:40,400 --> 00:30:43,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, And I mean I was really surprised on that

584
00:30:43,920 --> 00:30:47,360
Speaker 1: topic just how poorly the Bills came out against the

585
00:30:47,440 --> 00:30:49,760
Speaker 1: Chiefs on their first series last week. I was like, Yo,

586
00:30:50,160 --> 00:30:52,200
Speaker 1: this Goill team has been so well schemed all year,

587
00:30:52,520 --> 00:30:54,680
Speaker 1: Like whatever they were doing with the spread it around,

588
00:30:54,680 --> 00:30:56,680
Speaker 1: it was working, and it came out and Josh Allen's

589
00:30:56,720 --> 00:30:58,760
Speaker 1: just looking around and he threw I think almost threw

590
00:30:58,760 --> 00:31:00,520
Speaker 1: two picks on like the first two plays the game.

591
00:31:00,680 --> 00:31:03,280
Speaker 1: And then Washington's defense on the first run play they

592
00:31:03,280 --> 00:31:05,840
Speaker 1: get they get faked out and give off like there

593
00:31:05,840 --> 00:31:07,920
Speaker 1: are just some bad, you know, kind of jitters that

594
00:31:07,960 --> 00:31:10,280
Speaker 1: we saw in the championship games. But that's a good

595
00:31:10,280 --> 00:31:13,120
Speaker 1: point for you've been in this game. These guys have

596
00:31:13,200 --> 00:31:17,040
Speaker 1: been there, they've done it. So yeah, not expecting a

597
00:31:17,080 --> 00:31:21,320
Speaker 1: pick here, but Sean, you're closing us out here in

598
00:31:21,320 --> 00:31:23,400
Speaker 1: the three hole, third pick? Whatich you got?

599
00:31:24,080 --> 00:31:24,360
Speaker 2: All right?

600
00:31:24,360 --> 00:31:26,320
Speaker 4: Well, it wouldn't be a problem lose. It was just

601
00:31:26,360 --> 00:31:29,200
Speaker 4: one punter prop. So I have another one for you guys.

602
00:31:30,360 --> 00:31:33,480
Speaker 4: Will there be a punt to result in a touchback?

603
00:31:33,480 --> 00:31:34,520
Speaker 4: Did I even word that right?

604
00:31:34,960 --> 00:31:35,160
Speaker 1: Yes?

605
00:31:35,280 --> 00:31:38,040
Speaker 4: There will be a punt that results in a touchback?

606
00:31:38,360 --> 00:31:43,280
Speaker 4: Plus one point thirty. This game actually features the two

607
00:31:43,280 --> 00:31:46,520
Speaker 4: punters with the highest touchback rate in the league. Matt

608
00:31:46,640 --> 00:31:50,160
Speaker 4: Riza seventeen percent to punt god is the highest in

609
00:31:50,200 --> 00:31:54,360
Speaker 4: the league and braid Man, the Eagles punter, ranked second

610
00:31:54,440 --> 00:31:58,080
Speaker 4: with a fourteen percent touch back rate and Ray Boutan

611
00:31:58,080 --> 00:32:01,680
Speaker 4: You'll love this, I dug in touchback rate tends to

612
00:32:01,720 --> 00:32:05,040
Speaker 4: regress heavily towards the league average of eight percent, so

613
00:32:05,080 --> 00:32:07,920
Speaker 4: I'm not expecting them to be anywhere near these ridiculous

614
00:32:08,000 --> 00:32:11,960
Speaker 4: rates going forward. But I did notice two of the

615
00:32:12,000 --> 00:32:15,560
Speaker 4: more predictive underlying factors when it comes to touch back

616
00:32:15,640 --> 00:32:19,600
Speaker 4: rate are how often a punter kicks out of bounds

617
00:32:20,000 --> 00:32:22,560
Speaker 4: and how often you know their opponents call for a

618
00:32:22,560 --> 00:32:26,280
Speaker 4: fair catch. And both punters are extreme in at least

619
00:32:26,280 --> 00:32:29,800
Speaker 4: one of those stats. The Punt God has yet to

620
00:32:29,920 --> 00:32:33,360
Speaker 4: kick a punt out of bounds all season. His zero

621
00:32:33,360 --> 00:32:36,120
Speaker 4: percent out of bounds rate ranks as the lowest in

622
00:32:36,160 --> 00:32:39,600
Speaker 4: the league. No one else has that. The league average

623
00:32:40,480 --> 00:32:43,160
Speaker 4: is around ten percent. So if you think about it,

624
00:32:43,160 --> 00:32:45,800
Speaker 4: anytime a punt's kicked out of bounds, in theory, it

625
00:32:45,840 --> 00:32:49,040
Speaker 4: can't be a touchback. So he's never kicking it out

626
00:32:49,080 --> 00:32:52,040
Speaker 4: of bounds. So in theory, every time he punts the ball,

627
00:32:52,080 --> 00:32:53,160
Speaker 4: there's a chance it.

628
00:32:53,120 --> 00:32:53,960
Speaker 1: Could be a touchback.

629
00:32:54,040 --> 00:32:57,520
Speaker 4: So I think his touchback rate will be fairly sticky

630
00:32:57,560 --> 00:33:01,560
Speaker 4: going forward because this is clearly his. And when it

631
00:33:01,600 --> 00:33:04,800
Speaker 4: comes to braid Man, he has the second lowest fair

632
00:33:04,920 --> 00:33:08,600
Speaker 4: catch rate. Just fourteen percent of his punts result in

633
00:33:08,680 --> 00:33:12,560
Speaker 4: a fair catch. Lee gaverage is twenty seven percent, so

634
00:33:12,600 --> 00:33:14,880
Speaker 4: he tends to have a high percentage of his punts

635
00:33:14,920 --> 00:33:17,520
Speaker 4: that get down by his own team, the second highest rate.

636
00:33:18,000 --> 00:33:20,960
Speaker 4: So what he's doing, he's punting it the returners, you know,

637
00:33:21,040 --> 00:33:23,240
Speaker 4: not touching it, and the balls is rolling towards the

638
00:33:23,320 --> 00:33:26,360
Speaker 4: end zone and his teammates either down it before it

639
00:33:26,400 --> 00:33:28,120
Speaker 4: rolls in the end zone or it rolls in the

640
00:33:28,240 --> 00:33:31,200
Speaker 4: end zone for a touchback. So they have two very

641
00:33:31,440 --> 00:33:34,800
Speaker 4: sticky reasons why they're touchback rate should be higher than

642
00:33:34,880 --> 00:33:37,960
Speaker 4: Lee gaverage going forward. So I'm not showing a ton

643
00:33:38,000 --> 00:33:40,200
Speaker 4: of value on this. I have this closer to pick them,

644
00:33:40,600 --> 00:33:42,840
Speaker 4: So I love it at plus one thirty. But another

645
00:33:42,920 --> 00:33:46,520
Speaker 4: reason to never look away from your TV, even these

646
00:33:46,560 --> 00:33:49,200
Speaker 4: punts where we're going to be rooting for a touchback

647
00:33:49,240 --> 00:33:50,200
Speaker 4: at some point in the game.

648
00:33:51,160 --> 00:33:53,320
Speaker 1: Now, I'm just sad that, like this is the last

649
00:33:53,360 --> 00:33:56,560
Speaker 1: game for six eight months, we can't bet, and we

650
00:33:56,600 --> 00:33:58,400
Speaker 1: can't for a year. We're not gonna be able to

651
00:33:58,440 --> 00:34:02,160
Speaker 1: bet punter props again. Maybe maybe they'll normalize punter props

652
00:34:02,200 --> 00:34:04,360
Speaker 1: like like you know how like they like tackle in

653
00:34:04,440 --> 00:34:06,680
Speaker 1: the cysts props are now a lot more every week

654
00:34:06,720 --> 00:34:09,400
Speaker 1: you get them. Uh you know, maybe they'll maybe they

655
00:34:09,480 --> 00:34:13,799
Speaker 1: can just start normalizing these these punter props because no touchdowns,

656
00:34:13,880 --> 00:34:17,799
Speaker 1: right yeah, oh my god if yeah, no touchdowns, that's

657
00:34:17,840 --> 00:34:20,720
Speaker 1: the priority sports books. If you're listening, but a close

658
00:34:20,840 --> 00:34:25,359
Speaker 1: second punter props and listen, I mean, Sean just gave

659
00:34:25,440 --> 00:34:28,000
Speaker 1: y'all the model right there. So don't don't don't get

660
00:34:28,000 --> 00:34:29,759
Speaker 1: don't get scared that your numbers aren't gonna be good.

661
00:34:29,800 --> 00:34:31,759
Speaker 1: You know, just just post those props and we'll let

662
00:34:31,840 --> 00:34:35,840
Speaker 1: us decide that is Dad isn't gonna do it. For

663
00:34:35,920 --> 00:34:41,440
Speaker 1: another quite eventful propapalooza. Thank you again, uh Friedman for

664
00:34:41,560 --> 00:34:44,320
Speaker 1: joining us. He is Matthew Friedman, the head of betting

665
00:34:44,600 --> 00:34:46,880
Speaker 1: at Matthew Berry's Fantasy Wife. You can find him on

666
00:34:47,120 --> 00:34:49,600
Speaker 1: X at Matt f The Oracle. You can find Sean

667
00:34:49,680 --> 00:34:55,760
Speaker 1: Kerner on X at The Underscore Od's Maker at Chris raybaon. Remember,

668
00:34:55,880 --> 00:34:58,160
Speaker 1: if you want to bet these, check the episode description

669
00:34:58,320 --> 00:34:59,520
Speaker 1: for the quick slip links.

670
00:35:00,040 --> 00:35:17,160
Speaker 3: If you win a Super Bowl, let's get dish money.

671
00:35:17,880 --> 00:35:21,319
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

672
00:35:21,719 --> 00:35:24,560
Speaker 2: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

673
00:35:24,840 --> 00:35:27,440
Speaker 2: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

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00:35:27,560 --> 00:35:28,320
Speaker 2: hundred gambler