Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at
Speaker 1: noon and five pm Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android
Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever
Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 2: The government runs out of money in eighteen days. I
Speaker 2: know no one's talking about a shutdown yet, but I'm
Speaker 2: reminding you of this as there's no agreement on top lines,
Speaker 2: and you are going to hear the shutdown clock and
Speaker 2: all that stuff coming in the next couple of weeks.
Speaker 2: House Republicans are set to vote tomorrow though on a
Speaker 2: budget resolution. This brings us back to the whole reconciliation plan,
Speaker 2: the Trump tax cuts and so forth. They may not
Speaker 2: have the numbers for that either. And I will just
Speaker 2: let you know. An hour from now, we're going to
Speaker 2: be talking with New York Congresswoman Nicole Malia Takis, who
Speaker 2: is a Leen's no according to reporting, with concerns about
Speaker 2: potential cuts to Medicaid. Just keep that in your pocket
Speaker 2: until next hour. Big doings at the White House. French
Speaker 2: President Emmanuel Macron at the White House today as we
Speaker 2: mark the third year of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The
Speaker 2: President just kicked off a truth social about that, saying
Speaker 2: that I am in serious discussions with Vladimir Putin concerning
Speaker 2: the ending of the war and also major economic development transactions,
Speaker 2: he says, which will take place between the US and Russia.
Speaker 2: Talks proceeding very well. Would love to know more about
Speaker 2: this if you're with us on YouTube looking at the
Speaker 2: truth post. He says, everyone expressed their goal of seeing
Speaker 2: the war end when they had their meeting of the
Speaker 2: G seven this morning. Emmanuel Macron even crossed the street
Speaker 2: from Blairhouse to sit in the Oval for this conversation.
Speaker 2: I emphasized, he says, the importance of the vital critical
Speaker 2: minerals and rare Earth's deal between the US and Ukraine,
Speaker 2: which we hope will be signed very soon. A big
Speaker 2: pressure play going on there that we'll talk about a
Speaker 2: little bit more later on this hour. We do expect
Speaker 2: to see Emmanuel Macron make a formal arrival, if I
Speaker 2: can call it that, at the White House. He's staying
Speaker 2: really just truly across the street at Blairhouse, ran over
Speaker 2: for the meeting. Now the real formal arrival will take place,
Speaker 2: and they'll be in the Oval Office for a bilateral
Speaker 2: meeting later this hour. We'll bring you to the White
Speaker 2: House for that. There's one more I haven't mentioned. Federal
Speaker 2: workers have until midnight to prove that they should have
Speaker 2: their jobs. Elon Musk first went on Twitter with this
Speaker 2: idea that an actual memo from the Office of Management
Speaker 2: Budget went out. Yep, you got to send an email
Speaker 2: with I believe five bullet points to suggest what you
Speaker 2: accomplished last week and why you should keep your job.
Speaker 2: Which is where we start our conversation with Laura Davison,
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Politics editor. She runs our political coverage here in Washington.
Speaker 2: You ever send an email like that to an employee,
Speaker 2: give you to the close of business five bullets. I mean,
Speaker 2: this is kind of blowing some minds around here.
Speaker 3: Well, it's one thing to send it to one employee,
Speaker 3: it's another to send it to two plus million employees,
Speaker 3: which really raises the question of what are they going
Speaker 3: to do with all these responses. But the guidance from
Speaker 3: agencies across the board has been totally different. At DoD,
Speaker 3: at the State Department, some other places, they said do
Speaker 3: not respond. Department of Homeland Security said we will respond
Speaker 3: on your behalf. Other agencies were sending out guidance saying, hey,
Speaker 3: do respond, and here's some tips about how to talk
Speaker 3: about what you've been doing. It is really unclear what
Speaker 3: happens the OPM, the officer Personnel and manage it.
Speaker 1: Basically the HR for the federal government o PM thank
Speaker 1: you for gving me.
Speaker 3: Yes says that agencies will decide what the next steps are.
Speaker 3: Musk says, if you don't respond, you'll be fired. So
Speaker 3: there's just a lot of uncertainty and a lot of
Speaker 3: angst in the federal workforce.
Speaker 2: Yeah, so, I guess there were some pretty tough sessions
Speaker 2: over the weekend with people sitting down to write emails
Speaker 2: only to hear from their boss that they shouldn't send them.
Speaker 2: So is this midnight deadline real or not?
Speaker 3: It's as real as far as we know. But there
Speaker 3: was you know, as one person put it to me,
Speaker 3: every single cabinet secretary's weekend was ruined as they.
Speaker 2: Tried to deal with all of this.
Speaker 3: It just it was unclear exactly what the authority is,
Speaker 3: what they're going to do, and you know, for the
Speaker 3: case of a lot of agencies, they're dealing with classified information.
Speaker 3: They're dealing with you know, personal sensitive information that shouldn't
Speaker 3: necessarily go out to just you know, a random inbox
Speaker 3: over at o PM.
Speaker 2: Yeah. So, Elon Musk, when challenged over this whole idea,
Speaker 2: said on Twitter that he was essentially following the direction
Speaker 2: of the president here, consistent with President Trump's instructions, and
Speaker 2: that followed we're presuming a tweet or a truth from
Speaker 2: Trump who said that Elon is doing a great job
Speaker 2: all caps, I would like to see him get more aggressive.
Speaker 2: Were those of the instructions.
Speaker 3: That's what he said, But of course Trump didn't say specifically,
Speaker 3: email everyone and ask them what they're doing. There's a
Speaker 3: really interesting dynamic that's playing out here where Trump is
Speaker 3: essentially kind of having Musk do a lot of the
Speaker 3: dirty work. You know, we're starting to see and pulling
Speaker 3: that Musk is becoming less popular. People think he's overstepping
Speaker 3: his authority here. So there could be a little bit
Speaker 3: of you know, Trump says, go do more, Musk does it,
Speaker 3: but Trump doesn't have to take the political political fall
Speaker 3: for it.
Speaker 2: So please reply to this email, well, the approximately five
Speaker 2: bullets of what you accomplished last week and c see
Speaker 2: your manager says the email, This is coming from the
Speaker 2: HR division of OPM. As you just mentioned with the
Speaker 2: heading what did you do last week? Please do not
Speaker 2: send classified information links or attachments. Do you wonder how
Speaker 2: many actually wrote the email.
Speaker 3: It's really unclear that there are dozens of agencies who
Speaker 3: have said, yes, go ahead and reply. Certain agencies said
Speaker 3: we'll be reviewing this at the agency level. You're also
Speaker 3: supposed to see see your manager on your response. So
Speaker 3: one thing that has been pointed out is maybe this
Speaker 3: is a way that the dog is trying to put
Speaker 3: together a tree, sort of a list of all the
Speaker 3: people in the federal workforce and how it all fits together.
Speaker 3: You could use AI, you could use a bunch of
Speaker 3: tools to examine all of these, but people are really
Speaker 3: worried about sort of what it means if they respond,
Speaker 3: and what it means if they don't respond.
Speaker 2: Well, we should know. Federal Labor Union say the OPM
Speaker 2: email was illegal. Does that mean that this then goes
Speaker 2: to court and we have yet another case that we're
Speaker 2: waiting on it.
Speaker 3: It is already in court. Multiple multiple cases have already
Speaker 3: been filed. So we could expect to see you know,
Speaker 3: potentially a restraining order even before the deadline at midnight
Speaker 3: to night.
Speaker 2: Wowee, it's just amazing. You can almost see it coming
Speaker 2: to your point. Pentagon State Department Justice, FBI, n I
Speaker 2: H Energy, I ran out of fingers, DHS, HHS Officer
Speaker 2: of the d on I Noah, and the nssay have
Speaker 2: all told employees they either should not or do not
Speaker 2: need to respond. So I'm guessing that Elon Musk is
Speaker 2: going to be kind of disappointed by what he gets here.
Speaker 3: It's interesting. He even had an early morning tweet saying
Speaker 3: that this has a little bit, a little bit of
Speaker 3: a mess, sort of acknowledging the issue that was created here.
Speaker 3: He also sort of just sought to defend his actions
Speaker 3: by saying, look, you know, this was essentially a pulse check.
Speaker 3: You know, this would be very normal in the private sector,
Speaker 3: but we're really seeing sort of those private sector management
Speaker 3: techniques really run into loggerheads. What is typical and legal
Speaker 3: and you know, considered to be normal within the public.
Speaker 2: Is the doose bros like reading these emails deciding whether
Speaker 2: people keep their jobs.
Speaker 3: No know, this even this this email address that sent
Speaker 3: out the email. This is the same email address that
Speaker 3: no one had really ever seen before until it set
Speaker 3: the buyout email a couple of weeks ago saying hey,
Speaker 3: you know, take this buyout and we'll get you out
Speaker 3: of the government. Only about seventy five thousand people took that.
Speaker 3: They wanted a lot more, you know, potentially three to
Speaker 3: four times as many people to take that. So now
Speaker 3: we're seeing the repercussions of sort of sure as they
Speaker 3: dig deeper.
Speaker 2: More specifically, Laura Davison US aid is essentially shuttered as
Speaker 2: of today. Is that does that agency exist anymore? All
Speaker 2: of the workers are on leave? Is that true?
Speaker 3: Essentially all of the workers are on leave. There are
Speaker 3: a handful of people in top administrative roles that are
Speaker 3: that are there. They still have some folks overseas who
Speaker 3: they said will keep access to their systems and their
Speaker 3: things so they can get home safely, but essentially all
Speaker 3: the work has stopped. They even want a sort of
Speaker 3: an injunction in illegal battle this weekend. We'll see where
Speaker 3: that continues as the courts go here. But this is
Speaker 3: if you know, DOGE wants a success story, they can
Speaker 3: point to that and say, look, here's how we were
Speaker 3: in within less than a month able to dismay into
Speaker 3: an entire agency.
Speaker 2: Can I ask you if we could just lift the
Speaker 2: veil for a second here on covering DOGE. This is
Speaker 2: your purview. Your team is trying to cover this. But
Speaker 2: it's not a government agency in the traditional sense. It
Speaker 2: doesn't have like a pr office, does it. How do
Speaker 2: you track all of these headlines and figure out what's
Speaker 2: real because you see something on Twitter, truth social and
Speaker 2: then a memo and they're all different.
Speaker 3: It is really sort of a game of triangulation and
Speaker 3: going and checking with multiple people, you know. So DOGE
Speaker 3: what it really officially is is what's called a temporary organization.
Speaker 3: It's an office that sits in the White House complex.
Speaker 3: There are some employees that were there beforehand, many of
Speaker 3: those have been laid off. New people have come into
Speaker 3: the fold, and then they've fanned out across all the agencies.
Speaker 3: We're seeing a lot of the DOGE bros that go
Speaker 3: into certain agencies are popping up at other agencies in
Speaker 3: the following week. You know, there's about three dozen or
Speaker 3: so names that we've tracked. There could be more, but
Speaker 3: it's a relatively small group of people who are sort of,
Speaker 3: you know, flitting about Washington, you know, accessing data, compiling
Speaker 3: list of people that they think should be laid off,
Speaker 3: et cetera.
Speaker 2: And then you have to scrub any number of social
Speaker 2: media posts to get to an actual headline before you
Speaker 2: realize what's real. That's the hard part of the job, right.
Speaker 3: And it's really confusing even to people inside the agency.
Speaker 3: They just don't know what's happening, even the leaders.
Speaker 2: Yeah, wow, you should hear it in the newsroom. When
Speaker 2: the truth or the tweet goes out, people start running,
Speaker 2: the phone calls start happening. That's Laura's team, and thank
Speaker 2: you as always Laura Davison with us here on the
Speaker 2: fastest show in Politics. You know it's real if Laura
Speaker 2: says that, you can at least take that to the bank.
Speaker 2: And we're going to talk a little bit more about
Speaker 2: what's happening on the other end of Pennsylvania Avenue with
Speaker 2: regard to crafting a budget, never mind reconciliation. It's all
Speaker 2: ahead with Ron Bonjin.
Speaker 1: Next on Bloomberg, you're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of
Speaker 1: Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon and five
Speaker 1: pm Eastern.
Speaker 4: On Apple, Cocklay and Android Auto. With the Bloomberg business app.
Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our
Speaker 1: flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 2: Important stuff going on on Capitol Hill all the while
Speaker 2: House lawmakers are streaming back into town. So then we'll
Speaker 2: be with us over the course of the day, including
Speaker 2: Nicole Malia Takis right at the top of our second
Speaker 2: hour at one o'clock, all leading up to a rules
Speaker 2: committee vote today that's expected to take place in a
Speaker 2: floor vote at least. Look, this is what they're saying.
Speaker 2: I'm not telling you it's actually going to happen, but
Speaker 2: a floor vote tomorrow. This is like make or break
Speaker 2: time all over again for Mike Johnson, because not everyone
Speaker 2: appears to be on board. This is the big stuff,
Speaker 2: the big budget resolution that would include Trump tax cuts
Speaker 2: and all the rest. Stakes are high right now and
Speaker 2: they're awfully busy working on all this stuff on K Street,
Speaker 2: which is why we wanted to spend some time with
Speaker 2: Ron Bonjing. Of course, a legend on Capitol Hill, now
Speaker 2: an icon on K Street. He's co founder partner Rock Solutions.
Speaker 2: Ron Bonjing, welcome back to Bloomberg. It's great to have you, sir,
Speaker 2: just right off the top. What do we think is
Speaker 2: happening when we've got this Senate versus House situation, one
Speaker 2: big beautiful bill versus this idea of doing it a
Speaker 2: couple times, and everyone seems to think they have the
Speaker 2: answer to this. Can Mike Johnson even get this out
Speaker 2: of the blocks and say that he's got a Republican
Speaker 2: conference behind him.
Speaker 5: Well, it's definitely crunch time, Joe. On Capitol Hill. You've
Speaker 5: got the budget resolution that is supposed to come up
Speaker 5: for a vote sometime after six o'clock tomorrow. This leaves
Speaker 5: House Republican leadership with absolutely no wiggle room for maneuver.
Speaker 5: That's why I'm skeptical that the vote actually happens tomorrow night.
Speaker 5: You have a number of Republicans that are very skeptical
Speaker 5: or very concerned about the cuts. You know, a number
Speaker 5: of House Republican moderates have already signed a letter indicating
Speaker 5: their concern about all sorts of cuts, including Medicaid. One
Speaker 5: of your guests coming up, you know, Melia ta Congresswoman
Speaker 5: Melia Takis is alean No. It only takes one member
Speaker 5: right now of House Republicans to vote no to bring
Speaker 5: down the whole thing. So they're usually when you have
Speaker 5: a big monstrosity, you know, a huge bill like this,
Speaker 5: you're gonna want to take the whole week, maybe Thursday
Speaker 5: or Friday for a vote. And that may be very
Speaker 5: well when happens, and that helps you really, you know,
Speaker 5: fine tune and get these members back on board.
Speaker 2: There's your reality check. Then from Ron Bonjing, a lot
Speaker 2: of people to saying, do not hold your breath or
Speaker 2: stay up all night. So marku is the vote simply
Speaker 2: isn't going to happen. This House Resolution run includes instructions
Speaker 2: for the House Energy and Commerce Committee to find eight
Speaker 2: hundred and eighty billion dollars in cuts, and the idea
Speaker 2: is he can't do that without raiding Medicaid. Is that
Speaker 2: a fair synopsis of what's going on. That's why the
Speaker 2: Malia Takises of Washington are concerned about this.
Speaker 5: Yeah, that's right. Look, the Bunisher resolution doesn't say where
Speaker 5: the cuts come from. They don't dictate that, but it's
Speaker 5: pretty obvious where they need to come from. You're going
Speaker 5: to go to the social service programs like Medicaid, and
Speaker 5: that carries a huge political risk for Republicans like Malataki's
Speaker 5: for it. Like a moderate from California and David Valdeo
Speaker 5: and others who have are really in purple districts, and
Speaker 5: this could be a vote that if they take and
Speaker 5: these cuts are in there, this could be a huge,
Speaker 5: huge problem for them, you know, with all the advertising
Speaker 5: that's unleashed to motivate voters to go to the polls
Speaker 5: and to vote against them come November this early on too,
Speaker 5: so they're going to have to figure this out. The
Speaker 5: one big beautiful bill has to be made shinier, has
Speaker 5: to be made with sparkles it or something for these
Speaker 5: members of Congress to really think it's beautiful.
Speaker 2: Well, so where are you on that whole idea? I
Speaker 2: mean you just pointed out this majority of one. It's
Speaker 2: kind of ridiculous. Does that necessitate one big beautiful bill,
Speaker 2: as some say, because you're not possible going to pass two,
Speaker 2: will be lucky to get one. Is what folks in
Speaker 2: the House would tell you. The Senate would say, look,
Speaker 2: we need to get a win on the board now,
Speaker 2: so do what you can and we'll come back around
Speaker 2: on the tax cuts. Ron Bonjin, it's the existential question
Speaker 2: of the moment in Washington.
Speaker 5: Yeah. No, look, I would say this. The fact that
Speaker 5: there the Senate's already passed there, so the House is
Speaker 5: working on theirs is positive motion for President Trump. He
Speaker 5: has made this a signature part of his first year.
Speaker 5: I mean, he has a whole host of other priorities
Speaker 5: of the scene that you've been broadcasting, but the fact
Speaker 5: that he's getting this in motion, getting this put forward,
Speaker 5: something is going to happen here with this bill and
Speaker 5: the amount of political capital that's putting put into it,
Speaker 5: I can't see this vote failing, I mean his vote.
Speaker 5: If this vote were to fail, then you have to
Speaker 5: look at other alternatives, like the Senate bill. That's not
Speaker 5: something they want to do. By the way, the government
Speaker 5: needs to also be funded this month, so you're putting
Speaker 5: in all this political capital on the front end, and
Speaker 5: you're going to need some on the back end for
Speaker 5: that funding bill too. It's just a really difficult situation.
Speaker 5: While at the same time, they are putting the momentum
Speaker 5: forward and making members flashing the members out, where are
Speaker 5: the members standing? Okay, they've got a handful of members
Speaker 5: that are really concerned about it. What can they do?
Speaker 5: What can the leadership do to modify their concerns? What
Speaker 5: can they do to make them, you know, vote yes.
Speaker 5: If that were to happen, then the bill moves forward,
Speaker 5: and you know, the political risks are what they are,
Speaker 5: and then Trump gets what he needs. I don't think
Speaker 5: Trump cares what you know, he may call it the
Speaker 5: big Beautiful Bill. I don't think he cares what gets
Speaker 5: to his desk, as long as his priorities get there eventually,
Speaker 5: in in a timely manner. This is just the resolution.
Speaker 5: By the way, this is not even the beginning of reconciliation,
Speaker 5: which is going to take all year.
Speaker 2: Yeah, the hard part follows this. Ron Bondrey and I
Speaker 2: just want to mention that Emmanuel Macron has made his
Speaker 2: way back to the West Wing, crossing over from Blair House,
Speaker 2: and there you see on YouTube a live image of
Speaker 2: President Macron and President Donald Trump as they prepare to
Speaker 2: go inside. They will retire to the Oval office for
Speaker 2: some pretty hard conversations as they make their way into
Speaker 2: the mansion. Right now, they will emerge a little bit
Speaker 2: later on. We will have a pool spray at the
Speaker 2: top of their sit down on the Oval, so we
Speaker 2: might get a couple of words. Once they play that back.
Speaker 2: You see the press pool now running behind them into
Speaker 2: the West Wing and then an actual formal bilateral news
Speaker 2: conference will follow. I want to remind everybody Ron Bonjean
Speaker 2: was chief of staff to the Senate Republican Conference. In
Speaker 2: one life he was also Comms director of the Speaker,
Speaker 2: a Republican Speaker of the House, Denny Hastard, and another life.
Speaker 2: So listening to you talk about the push and pull
Speaker 2: between these two chambers, Ron is really interesting and kind
Speaker 2: of figuring out who's actually going to win here. But
Speaker 2: you just pointed us to something that very few people
Speaker 2: are talking about in Park because I don't know how
Speaker 2: everyone even understands all this stuff taking place at once.
Speaker 2: You've got a budget resolution reconciliation fight in waiting, but yeah,
Speaker 2: have to fund the governments and in eighteen days we're
Speaker 2: about to run out of money. We know how the
Speaker 2: Freedom Caucus feels about this. A lot of Republicans who
Speaker 2: have a real allergy to continuing resolutions, they have an
Speaker 2: allergy to raising the debt ceiling. And you wonder, to
Speaker 2: your point, how much political capital is going to be
Speaker 2: burnt here before we have to take another difficult vote
Speaker 2: on keeping the government open in March.
Speaker 5: A tremendous amount is going to be burned over the resolution. However,
Speaker 5: they're going to have to dig deep to find to
Speaker 5: find a way on funding the government. And there could
Speaker 5: be another extension. There could be an agreement between Republicans
Speaker 5: who have serious problems over this or funding to kick
Speaker 5: the can down the road once again. You very well
Speaker 5: could because you're not going to have one Democrat on
Speaker 5: the side of Republicans. I just can't see it. With
Speaker 5: the fact that you know, we have a president who
Speaker 5: is on leached d Elon Musk and cutting in the
Speaker 5: federal agencies and really frustrating House Democrats, why would they
Speaker 5: want to be helpful? Why would House and Senate Democrats
Speaker 5: want to be helpful to helping President Trump govern the
Speaker 5: way he's the way he's leading. In their view, they
Speaker 5: don't like it. So I can you know, not to
Speaker 5: mention you're you know, within this funding resolution, we're also
Speaker 5: talking about raising the debt ceiling, which is a tremendous
Speaker 5: ask as well. So I think you know, could they
Speaker 5: fund it?
Speaker 2: Yes?
Speaker 5: Will they need to have more time?
Speaker 2: Probably, So you've got folks like Tim Burchett just say
Speaker 2: they won't even consider raising the debt ceiling or at
Speaker 2: least have always voted no. Can I ask you, Ron,
Speaker 2: what's what does a thin majority like this mean for
Speaker 2: K Street? Is it better for business the tighter things
Speaker 2: get or is it the opposite because some members are
Speaker 2: less willing to be influenced by outside forces.
Speaker 5: I think that the more confusing things are, the more
Speaker 5: chaotic they are, the better it is for K Street
Speaker 5: because they are view look to to help solve these
Speaker 5: type of problems, to help to help companies and organizations
Speaker 5: groups navigate this traverse terrain. It's at with certainty comes
Speaker 5: you know, comes clarity, and without that, you know, without that,
Speaker 5: you really need the best minds of KSE straight, you know,
Speaker 5: helping you out, helping you guide yourself, helping guide your
Speaker 5: organization through this maze.
Speaker 2: Well, that's why we're talking to you right now. And
Speaker 2: if I heard you correctly at the outset run, it'll
Speaker 2: likely if this budget resolution passes the House, it'll likely
Speaker 2: come at the end of this week. Is that what
Speaker 2: our audience should expect?
Speaker 5: I would think conventionally, Yes, conventionally, that's what usually occurs.
Speaker 5: Anything can happen in this unpredictable environment. I just don't
Speaker 5: see how you can convince these members on the floor
Speaker 5: of the House when you put this down that this
Speaker 5: is going to be, that this is going to work
Speaker 5: out well, there has to be much more of a
Speaker 5: dialogue in order to bring some of these questionable members
Speaker 5: on board. So could you see it now, yes, but
Speaker 5: I think it's more likely later on this week.
Speaker 2: Makes a heck of a lot of sense and always
Speaker 2: a pleasure to spend some time with Ron Bongie and
Speaker 2: thank you Ron for the insights. Rock Solutions partner, co founder,
Speaker 2: republican influencer here in the nation's capital. Macron's in the building.
Speaker 2: Will assemble our panel next. Rick Davis Adam Hodge with
Speaker 2: us as we prepare for an important day in geopolitics.
Speaker 1: On Bloomberg, you're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast.
Speaker 1: Catch us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern.
Speaker 4: On Apple, Cockley and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.
Speaker 4: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch
Speaker 4: us live on YouTube Totally.
Speaker 6: Back in Washington this week after the President's Day recess
Speaker 6: is the House of Representatives and they return to work
Speaker 6: on Capitol Hill today with a big to do list
Speaker 6: this week, all supposed to culminate in a vote tomorrow
Speaker 6: evening on the budget resolution that would give the Ways
Speaker 6: and Means Committee four and a half trillion dollars of
Speaker 6: headway to make the Trump tax cuts permanent, but has
Speaker 6: to come with a lot of spending cuts to keep
Speaker 6: conservatives in the conference happy. And it seems that there
Speaker 6: are enough members who are unhappy with the way this
Speaker 6: is all laid out that it's no guarantee this thing
Speaker 6: can pass on the floor.
Speaker 2: Or at least concerned I guess. Yeah. Look, we're going
Speaker 2: to have a committee a vote of an important one
Speaker 2: a little bit later on today, then we talk about
Speaker 2: the potential for a floor vote as early as tomorrow.
Speaker 2: Ron Bonjin, the Republican strategist on K Street, told us earlier,
Speaker 2: don't hold your breath. If this happens, it'll likely be
Speaker 2: toward the end of the week for the very difficult
Speaker 2: math that you're referring to here, Kley, And it's where
Speaker 2: we start our conversation with Congresswoman Nicole Malia Takis, the
Speaker 2: Republican from New York, is with us live from Capitol
Speaker 2: Hill right now with this looming vote, congress Woman, welcome
Speaker 2: back to Bloomberg TV and Radio. It's great to have
Speaker 2: you reports say that you are a lean no on
Speaker 2: this over concerns about potential Medicaid cuts. Is that accurate
Speaker 2: and what would need to happen to make you a yes?
Speaker 7: Well, I would say right now I've moved a little
Speaker 7: bit toward yes. I'm still between undecided and LEO and
Speaker 7: the reasons why or because I still need to get
Speaker 7: a better understanding and some assurances that we're not going
Speaker 7: to have impacts on Medicaid recipients in my district and
Speaker 7: the hospitals that I represent that are already struggling safety
Speaker 7: net hospitals and any cuts that could affect them. The
Speaker 7: reality is, if you want to achieve what they've put forward,
Speaker 7: they've only given us four and a half trillion dollars
Speaker 7: for tax cuts, and that has to include an extension
Speaker 7: of all the existing provisions that are in the Tax
Speaker 7: Cut Jobs Act, Right, So your child healthcare, a child
Speaker 7: tax credit, your standard deduction that was doubled, the lower
Speaker 7: personal income, as well as the corporate tax rate, the
Speaker 7: bonus deduction R and D. All of that is going
Speaker 7: into that four and a half trillion, So it doesn't
Speaker 7: leave a lot of room to add the president's additional
Speaker 7: tax priorities, which happen to also be priorities of mind,
Speaker 7: restoring the salt deduction to an extent, lowering taxes for seniors,
Speaker 7: no tax on tips. So what happens then we'd have
Speaker 7: to find additional savings. They're already proposing about one and
Speaker 7: a half trillion dollars in savings, and they want to
Speaker 7: do another half a trillion to increase those tax cuts anymore.
Speaker 7: So that begs the question where will those savings and
Speaker 7: cuts come from? And I have a big problem if
Speaker 7: it's going to be in the medicaid space. We've already
Speaker 7: said no Social Security cuts, no Medicare cuts. But with
Speaker 7: the Medicaid, if we focus on true waste, fraud, and
Speaker 7: abuse and mismanagement of the program, that's one thing. If
Speaker 7: we want to ensure that only US citizens receive Medicaid,
Speaker 7: that's another thing. I can support those making sure able
Speaker 7: bodied Americans eighteen to sixty four without dependents are working
Speaker 7: to receive their benefits. I can also support that. But
Speaker 7: those are the questions I have at this moment, and
Speaker 7: they have not been addressed, and so until they're addressed,
Speaker 7: I'm aleno.
Speaker 6: Okay, Well, we are understanding, at least Congressoman, is that
Speaker 6: leadership has a limited amount of time to address those concerns.
Speaker 6: If they do want this on the floor tomorrow night,
Speaker 6: what odds do you put on this getting delayed as
Speaker 6: they try to work to address your concerns and that
Speaker 6: of other colleagues you might have them.
Speaker 7: Well, well, those of us who have the concerns on
Speaker 7: where this eight hundred and eighty billion within the energy
Speaker 7: and commerce space, which includes medicaid, just have a simple question,
Speaker 7: where is it eight hundred and eighty billion dollars going
Speaker 7: to come from? Are we going to be repealing additional
Speaker 7: IRA energy tax credits, Are we going to be ending
Speaker 7: electric vehicle get mandates? Are we going to be like
Speaker 7: where is it coming from? That's those you know, that's
Speaker 7: our question, and we need an answer to that before
Speaker 7: the vote. I know that the President has made very
Speaker 7: clear he also does not want to see cuts to
Speaker 7: beneficiaries on Medicaid. That's great. I'm glad to hear that
Speaker 7: from the President of the United States. I've heard it
Speaker 7: also from the Speaker. I had a good conversation with
Speaker 7: him last night, and he also has a very large
Speaker 7: Medicaid population in his district, so he also shares these concerns.
Speaker 7: So the question begs, then how are we going to
Speaker 7: get to that eight hundred and eighty billion by not
Speaker 7: touching it. I'm glad that everyone agrees that you don't
Speaker 7: want to affect the beneficiaries. I have people who are
Speaker 7: senior citizens who are developmentally disabled or have other disabilities
Speaker 7: in my district and they rely on this Medicaid healthcare
Speaker 7: and I don't want to see them be impacted by it.
Speaker 7: So we just need to see that. Look, look, I
Speaker 7: come from New York, and we also know that New
Speaker 7: York State mismanages a lot. Let's be honest, and there's
Speaker 7: a lot there that could be that is abused by
Speaker 7: the State of New York, certain loopholes that they're taking
Speaker 7: advantage of to take more Medicaid money. And the expansion
Speaker 7: of Medicaid after COVID actually led to the federal government
Speaker 7: picking up ninety percent of the share and the state
Speaker 7: only kicking in ten percent. Maybe the state needs to
Speaker 7: kick in a little more and that would help us
Speaker 7: reduce the debt that we have here on the federal level.
Speaker 7: Those are all conversations I'm open to having. I just
Speaker 7: want to make sure that my beneficiaries are not impacted
Speaker 7: in the process.
Speaker 2: Well, and of course that that is your job to
Speaker 2: ask those questions, congresswomen, and you're not the only member
Speaker 2: asking them. This idea of a vote tomorrow seems to
Speaker 2: be like a bit of a reach. What's the real
Speaker 2: timeline as you consider the days ahead? Maybe by the
Speaker 2: end of this week, when do you think Speaker Johnson
Speaker 2: and to Emmer will know that they have the numbers
Speaker 2: to move forward.
Speaker 7: Well, we'll be a group of us that are particularly
Speaker 7: concerned about the medicaid issue. We're going to be meeting
Speaker 7: with the Speaker in a little while this afternoon, and
Speaker 7: so hopefully we can get some additional clarity and assurances
Speaker 7: and we'll see. We'll see what happens in that conversation
Speaker 7: and what kind of insurance assurances that we receive. But yeah,
Speaker 7: I mean, look, if they don't have the votes, it
Speaker 7: would make more sense to either amend the resolution or
Speaker 7: to wait until we have more conversations with the White
Speaker 7: House and our colleagues. Now, the other thing is people
Speaker 7: need to recognize this is a budget resolution that the
Speaker 7: Senate already passed a different version that includes no money no,
Speaker 7: no money for tax cuts. So we have two different
Speaker 7: versions here, so eventually we're going to have to get
Speaker 7: to one version that passes both houses. So really, in
Speaker 7: a way, we're taking this vote and even if it passes,
Speaker 7: it most likely is not the final version because I
Speaker 7: don't see the Senate taking that up, which means we'd
Speaker 7: have to come together and hash out something that's in
Speaker 7: the middle, hopefully one that will address all the President's
Speaker 7: priorities of the of the savings, rooting out the fraud
Speaker 7: wasting abuse, as well as the money for the tax
Speaker 7: cuts to implement the additional tax provisions for the middle class.
Speaker 7: And then we have to go forward as a team
Speaker 7: on both sides in the House and the Senate and
Speaker 7: pass that before we can actually unlock the legislative process
Speaker 7: of getting into the details and which which provisions will
Speaker 7: be included in the overall conciliation package. So there's still
Speaker 7: a long way to go in this process. I know
Speaker 7: that this vote is important tomorrow, but you know, if
Speaker 7: it does not pass, there's still an opportunity for the
Speaker 7: House and the Senate to get together based on these
Speaker 7: two frameworks and pass that one package. It's going to
Speaker 7: be done regardless of whether we passed this tomorrow or not.
Speaker 6: Well, and of course the timeline you're working with here
Speaker 6: does have the ability, at least the flexibility to be extended,
Speaker 6: as it's really the tax cuts that are expiring at
Speaker 6: the end of the year, and that seems to be
Speaker 6: the deadline. I'd like to ask you, though, Congressoman, about
Speaker 6: a deadline that is much closer. Mid March. We're just
Speaker 6: eighteen days away from government funding running out, and it's
Speaker 6: still unclear to us here at Bloomberg, and I wonder
Speaker 6: if you can provide some clarities to whether or not
Speaker 6: forward progress is being made on talks with Democrats to
Speaker 6: avert a shutdown. Are we going to see the lights
Speaker 6: turn off? Or will there be a continuing resolution or
Speaker 6: actually appropriations bills getting across the floor.
Speaker 7: Well, I'm hoping we will once ay again at a
Speaker 7: government shutdown. This is I mean, I've only been here
Speaker 7: for two terms and I've already been through this about
Speaker 7: five times, but thankfully each and every time we did
Speaker 7: avert the shutdown. But this does require cooperation and bipartisanship,
Speaker 7: and I'll explain why. Under unlike the budget resolution, where
Speaker 7: you can do this with just a simple majority, which
Speaker 7: the Republicans have. The funding mechanism has to be done
Speaker 7: with sixty votes in the Senate, which means you need
Speaker 7: seven Democrats to come along in the Senate. You can't
Speaker 7: achieve that if you're just going to have a Republican
Speaker 7: only a piece of legislation that moves forward. So regardless
Speaker 7: of having the trifecta, we need to engage the Democrats
Speaker 7: in this process. Now, once you negotiate with the Democrats,
Speaker 7: what happens you lose a few dozen in the House
Speaker 7: because the Freedom Caucus guys don't believe we should negotiate.
Speaker 7: They don't you want to negotiate with us and the
Speaker 7: other Republicans in the conference forget about the Democrats on
Speaker 7: the other side of the aisle. So this does present
Speaker 7: a little bit more of a complication this year. So
Speaker 7: we do need, you know, the moderates in particular on
Speaker 7: the Democrat side, to recognize that we need to avert
Speaker 7: a shutdown. Hopefully they will come and join us to
Speaker 7: vote to avert a shutdown. And you know, that's the
Speaker 7: reason why I'm a member of the Problem Solvers Caucus,
Speaker 7: because I think it is important for Republicans and Democrats
Speaker 7: to get together and have these conversations, and this is
Speaker 7: an opportunity where they can actually help. They were not
Speaker 7: there for us when the far right tried did kick
Speaker 7: out our Speaker Kevin McCarthy. They went along with the
Speaker 7: far right to do that. This is another opportunity for
Speaker 7: the Problem Solvers Caucus to show that they truly want
Speaker 7: to work together and avert a government shutdown. And I
Speaker 7: hope that's exactly what happens. But I'm going into this knowing.
Speaker 7: You know, in government you're not gonna get everything you want,
Speaker 7: just like in business, just like in relationships, just like
Speaker 7: in life. But certain unfortunately there are some members that
Speaker 7: want all or nothing. And that's just the way, not
Speaker 7: the way it.
Speaker 6: Is here, not the way the cookie crumbles. All right, Congressoman,
Speaker 6: thank you so much, joining us live from Capitol Hill.
Speaker 6: That's Republican Congressoman Nicole Mally Taucus of New York. And
Speaker 6: as she told us, she and others of her colleagues
Speaker 6: who are concerned about potential cuts to medicaid. We'll be
Speaker 6: meeting with the House Speaker later on today. And we
Speaker 6: actually heard from Speaker Johnson earlier speaking about this process.
Speaker 6: This is what he said.
Speaker 8: If we get the budget resolution passed this week, which
Speaker 8: is the plan, then it's possible that Elistophonic would go
Speaker 8: ahead and move on to her assignment at the UN
Speaker 8: as the ambassador there once she gets through the confirmation
Speaker 8: process and a Senate, which I think would go quickly,
Speaker 8: and then that would start the clock. And so let's
Speaker 8: hope that we can get it filled in time and
Speaker 8: hope that the law is respected by Democrats in New York.
Speaker 6: So referring to a few things here, won the potential
Speaker 6: passage over this budget resolution in the House, which he
Speaker 6: said could mean that another congresswoman from New York, Alista Phonic,
Speaker 6: who has been tapped to be the ambassador to the UN,
Speaker 6: would actually leave the chamber. She's trying to juice the
Speaker 6: majority as much as possible given how thin it is.
Speaker 6: So on that note, we turn to our political panel today.
Speaker 6: Rick Davis is with US Republican Strategist and Stone Court
Speaker 6: Capital Partner, also Bloomberg Politics contributor, together with Adam Hodge
Speaker 6: for spokesperson for the National Security Council at the White House.
Speaker 6: Now with Bully Pulpit International and Democratic Strategist. Welcome to you,
Speaker 6: both Rick. Obviously, we just heard from Congressman Maliya Takis
Speaker 6: that she has not yet sold on this budget resolution.
Speaker 6: If you had to put odds down, is this thing
Speaker 6: going to get a vote tomorrow night?
Speaker 2: Yeah?
Speaker 9: I just don't know how if you're concerned about the
Speaker 9: medicaid portions of this reconciliation bill, how you can actually
Speaker 9: go forward. Because eighty eight billion dollars a year, eight
Speaker 9: hundred and eighty billion in ten years the term of
Speaker 9: the reconciliation package, and that's off the four point five
Speaker 9: billion in tax cuts. The Freedom Caucus once an additional
Speaker 9: five hundred million in or billion in tax cuts, which
Speaker 9: means they got to get five hundred million additional cuts, which,
Speaker 9: by the way, brings the medicaid portion already in a
Speaker 9: formula from the Energy and Commerce Committee to one point
Speaker 9: one seven trillion. Now you go back and campaign for
Speaker 9: reelection on having just cut one point one seven trillion
Speaker 9: dollars from the Medicaid bill. I'm sorry, but there is
Speaker 9: a lot of waste frauden abuse, and she's absolutely right
Speaker 9: about New York and it's inefficiency, But that one point
Speaker 9: one seven trillion is a lot more than waste fraud
Speaker 9: abuse and politically untenable to anybody running for reelection.
Speaker 2: Adam, your thoughts on this? And I just want to
Speaker 2: mention quickly that we are waiting for video from the
Speaker 2: Oval Office that is just about to start rolling here
Speaker 2: of President Trump's meeting with Emmanuel Macrone. First of all,
Speaker 2: will there be a vote tomorrow on this on the
Speaker 2: floor of any sort, Adam? And when you listen to
Speaker 2: someone like Nicole Malia Takas, do you think it can pass?
Speaker 10: But I think if you look at Speaker Johnson's past history,
Speaker 10: things get kicked down the road a little bit, so
Speaker 10: it wouldn't be surprise me if this slips just a
Speaker 10: little bit. What you're hearing from the congressman there is
Speaker 10: what and Rick also said perfectly. I mean the math
Speaker 10: has no opinion here. It is really hard to imagine
Speaker 10: them getting the huge cuts to Medicaid without a bunch
Speaker 10: of members or Congress jumping off the ship. And it
Speaker 10: reminds me of in tw twenty ten when Democrats tried
Speaker 10: to pass the big cap and Trade bill, and there
Speaker 10: was a House members and took a bunch of big votes,
Speaker 10: including one on Captain trade that they ended up paying
Speaker 10: for dearly in the midterms, and many members of Congress
Speaker 10: said that vote not Obamacare was the thing that cost
Speaker 10: me my seat in the House and cost the Democrats
Speaker 10: their majority. So you're asking a lot of members to
Speaker 10: walk the plank and vote for something that, as the
Speaker 10: congress woman said, may not even be the bill that
Speaker 10: they vote for in the end. That is a really
Speaker 10: really hard pill for them to swallow, and I think
Speaker 10: that's why you're going to see them really struggle to
Speaker 10: get the votes to pass this this week.
Speaker 2: Adam, thank you so much, and Rick Davis our panel today.
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make
Speaker 2: sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify,
Speaker 2: or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find
Speaker 2: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at Noontimeeastern at
Speaker 2: Bloomberg dot com.