WEBVTT - NAACP President on Racial Equality

0:00:00.720 --> 0:00:03.720
<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm

0:00:03.800 --> 0:00:06.320
<v Speaker 1>Jason Kelley. We're right here every day bringing you the

0:00:06.400 --> 0:00:11.160
<v Speaker 1>latest news from the world's of business and finance, plus technology, politics, economics,

0:00:11.240 --> 0:00:14.280
<v Speaker 1>all harnessing the power of Business Week reporters and editors.

0:00:14.440 --> 0:00:16.439
<v Speaker 1>And of course Carol that's part of a team of

0:00:16.520 --> 0:00:20.439
<v Speaker 1>twenty seven hundred journalists and analysts more than a hundred

0:00:20.480 --> 0:00:23.280
<v Speaker 1>and twenty countries and Jason. You can download Bloomberg Business

0:00:23.280 --> 0:00:26.239
<v Speaker 1>Week on iTunes, SoundCloud, bl Bloomberg dot com. You can

0:00:26.280 --> 0:00:28.640
<v Speaker 1>also listen to our radio show at two pm Eastern

0:00:28.680 --> 0:00:31.560
<v Speaker 1>on Bloomberg Radio every weekday, or watch us on YouTube

0:00:31.600 --> 0:00:36.240
<v Speaker 1>by searching Bloomberg Global News. Jason Kelly and Alex Steel

0:00:36.280 --> 0:00:39.640
<v Speaker 1>here with you on a Friday. Delighted to have back

0:00:39.720 --> 0:00:43.440
<v Speaker 1>with us our reality check, our human gut check, which

0:00:43.479 --> 0:00:45.320
<v Speaker 1>actually is a little bit of a pun since you're

0:00:45.360 --> 0:00:48.320
<v Speaker 1>a gastrointurologist. Dr Ian les Vader. I had never really

0:00:48.320 --> 0:00:52.760
<v Speaker 1>thought about that. Jason, You are always funny, but especially today.

0:00:52.800 --> 0:00:55.840
<v Speaker 1>How are you doing very well? Uh? And I'm happy

0:00:55.920 --> 0:00:58.120
<v Speaker 1>to introduce you if you haven't met her before, to

0:00:58.320 --> 0:01:02.040
<v Speaker 1>Alex Steele, our colleague from Blomberg Television and Bloomberg Radio

0:01:02.320 --> 0:01:05.399
<v Speaker 1>joining me and Carol's absence. Uh, doctor less fair of course,

0:01:05.440 --> 0:01:08.000
<v Speaker 1>his clinical associate professor of medicine at n y U

0:01:08.040 --> 0:01:13.000
<v Speaker 1>s Land Gun Medical Center. So give us that reality check, Ian.

0:01:13.400 --> 0:01:17.199
<v Speaker 1>You know, I feel like the news has been slightly better,

0:01:17.319 --> 0:01:20.399
<v Speaker 1>maybe a little this week as we look across the country.

0:01:20.520 --> 0:01:23.680
<v Speaker 1>Certainly things feel stable in New York. What do you

0:01:23.760 --> 0:01:28.240
<v Speaker 1>see from your perspective? Definitely good news and bad news.

0:01:28.280 --> 0:01:30.360
<v Speaker 1>By the way, I too, am a native New Yorker

0:01:30.440 --> 0:01:32.720
<v Speaker 1>born and raised on the Upper West Side, so there

0:01:32.720 --> 0:01:34.040
<v Speaker 1>are not a lot of us that we have to

0:01:34.080 --> 0:01:36.880
<v Speaker 1>stick together, but I'm a little more than sixteen years.

0:01:39.160 --> 0:01:41.520
<v Speaker 1>In terms of the virus, there was a recent article

0:01:41.520 --> 0:01:44.840
<v Speaker 1>of the New England Journal and ME correspondence that was

0:01:44.880 --> 0:01:49.840
<v Speaker 1>a little disconsorting. It showed patients with mild UH disease

0:01:50.000 --> 0:01:52.840
<v Speaker 1>that that were treated with oxygen, you know, not totally

0:01:52.880 --> 0:01:57.120
<v Speaker 1>asymptomatications how to drop over the course of approximately a

0:01:57.160 --> 0:02:01.240
<v Speaker 1>hundred twenty days in their antibodies. So uh, it is

0:02:01.320 --> 0:02:05.920
<v Speaker 1>more clear that the antibodies that are forming are maybe

0:02:05.920 --> 0:02:10.840
<v Speaker 1>transient uh finite, and that raises questions about vaccines. How

0:02:10.919 --> 0:02:14.920
<v Speaker 1>much of an antibody response they elicit, and certainly for

0:02:15.000 --> 0:02:18.119
<v Speaker 1>patients who say I don't want a vaccine, I don't

0:02:18.120 --> 0:02:20.720
<v Speaker 1>need a vaccine, I had it, there really is a

0:02:20.800 --> 0:02:23.360
<v Speaker 1>question even if you do have anibodies, how long they

0:02:23.360 --> 0:02:25.680
<v Speaker 1>will last? Laugh. So I think that that was an

0:02:25.680 --> 0:02:29.120
<v Speaker 1>interesting new bit of data, not to mention, of course,

0:02:29.120 --> 0:02:31.959
<v Speaker 1>the increased cases that we're seeing. Always good to meet

0:02:32.000 --> 0:02:35.080
<v Speaker 1>another fellow New Yorker. Uh, where do you grow up?

0:02:35.080 --> 0:02:39.360
<v Speaker 1>By the way, uh, nineties between Columbus and Amsterdam, and

0:02:39.360 --> 0:02:41.760
<v Speaker 1>they moved over to the East Side. So I went

0:02:41.840 --> 0:02:44.960
<v Speaker 1>to school and medical school here. So I'm a longtime

0:02:44.960 --> 0:02:48.079
<v Speaker 1>New Yorker, but I love the whole country. Thank Yeah, yeah,

0:02:48.080 --> 0:02:49.520
<v Speaker 1>you have to say that. Eighty seventh and West End,

0:02:49.560 --> 0:02:51.520
<v Speaker 1>so we were in the hood. Okay. So um, the

0:02:51.560 --> 0:02:54.760
<v Speaker 1>antibody research was a little confusing this week. But also

0:02:54.800 --> 0:02:58.000
<v Speaker 1>confusing to me was then the positive T cell research.

0:02:58.040 --> 0:03:02.200
<v Speaker 1>Can you walk me through sort of what the differences are? Well, Uh,

0:03:02.360 --> 0:03:05.720
<v Speaker 1>the immune response really is composed of two arms. Typically

0:03:05.720 --> 0:03:09.079
<v Speaker 1>we think of the cells which form antibodies, and they

0:03:09.120 --> 0:03:11.840
<v Speaker 1>work both in a short term called I G M

0:03:11.880 --> 0:03:13.960
<v Speaker 1>anti bodies, and that I G G which tend to

0:03:14.000 --> 0:03:17.280
<v Speaker 1>be longer lasting, but all of those can vary. Typically,

0:03:17.280 --> 0:03:20.680
<v Speaker 1>if you have certain viruses like measles, if you actually

0:03:20.680 --> 0:03:24.440
<v Speaker 1>get the disease as opposed to the vaccine, those are

0:03:24.560 --> 0:03:28.680
<v Speaker 1>lifetime antibodies small pox or variety. But then there are

0:03:28.720 --> 0:03:32.440
<v Speaker 1>also diseases like hid or hepatitis C, where you get

0:03:32.440 --> 0:03:34.920
<v Speaker 1>antibodies and they do not kill the virus. People have

0:03:35.000 --> 0:03:39.440
<v Speaker 1>chronic hid or chronic hepatitis C. You need anti viral treatments.

0:03:39.480 --> 0:03:42.440
<v Speaker 1>But there are also cellular immunity typically we call the

0:03:42.880 --> 0:03:48.000
<v Speaker 1>key cell related immunity, which also helps kill a variety

0:03:48.040 --> 0:03:51.840
<v Speaker 1>of pathogens from bacteria also the viruses, and that we

0:03:51.960 --> 0:03:55.600
<v Speaker 1>feel maybe longer lasting. We're just really beginning to see

0:03:56.360 --> 0:03:59.920
<v Speaker 1>with these vaccines, we need to study what is the

0:04:00.200 --> 0:04:03.880
<v Speaker 1>nature of the response. Ideally you get both and ideally

0:04:03.880 --> 0:04:07.800
<v Speaker 1>that will give you a longer pertition. Again, assuming the

0:04:07.880 --> 0:04:12.440
<v Speaker 1>virus does that, you take so ian as you look

0:04:12.640 --> 0:04:15.840
<v Speaker 1>at the look ahead to the vaccine. I wanted to

0:04:15.840 --> 0:04:17.680
<v Speaker 1>ask you a question that came up in a conversation

0:04:17.680 --> 0:04:19.159
<v Speaker 1>we had yesterday with the new president of the a

0:04:19.320 --> 0:04:24.240
<v Speaker 1>m A. And it largely is about actually I'm checking myself.

0:04:24.320 --> 0:04:27.040
<v Speaker 1>A conversation we had with a doctor from Johns Hopkins,

0:04:27.800 --> 0:04:31.320
<v Speaker 1>who I believe is actually a sociologist, and talking about

0:04:31.360 --> 0:04:35.080
<v Speaker 1>the culture of vaccination and how she and her colleagues

0:04:35.120 --> 0:04:38.960
<v Speaker 1>are actually worried about when the vaccine is available, essentially

0:04:39.000 --> 0:04:43.400
<v Speaker 1>convincing people that they should get it. How much do

0:04:43.480 --> 0:04:47.200
<v Speaker 1>you worry about that? You are exactly right, and that

0:04:47.320 --> 0:04:50.480
<v Speaker 1>really is a concern. I've spoken to my own patients,

0:04:50.480 --> 0:04:53.800
<v Speaker 1>and I've also looked at studies, and really we're talking

0:04:53.839 --> 0:04:58.240
<v Speaker 1>about perhaps fifty people who would be hesitant, and it's unclear,

0:04:58.600 --> 0:05:00.720
<v Speaker 1>you know what this is, what kind of beliefs are

0:05:00.760 --> 0:05:04.040
<v Speaker 1>going on their fear. And certainly some of these vaccines

0:05:04.120 --> 0:05:07.400
<v Speaker 1>are new message or a name Maderna, the astra zanca,

0:05:07.680 --> 0:05:10.960
<v Speaker 1>a variety of new approaches which we think are more effective,

0:05:11.440 --> 0:05:15.520
<v Speaker 1>but they are untested, meaning they haven't been used for decades.

0:05:16.240 --> 0:05:20.040
<v Speaker 1>So vac scenes are essentially useless unless you get people

0:05:20.080 --> 0:05:23.160
<v Speaker 1>to take them. Well, what percentage of the population would

0:05:23.200 --> 0:05:28.040
<v Speaker 1>have to We really are worried about at least a

0:05:28.120 --> 0:05:32.839
<v Speaker 1>fifty herd immunity, So we're talking about of the population

0:05:32.920 --> 0:05:36.680
<v Speaker 1>fifty or sixty maybe even more than that. They either

0:05:36.839 --> 0:05:39.880
<v Speaker 1>have the disease with long lasting antibodies, So we just said,

0:05:40.360 --> 0:05:43.360
<v Speaker 1>many of the cases do not have long lasting antibodies

0:05:44.279 --> 0:05:47.440
<v Speaker 1>and or getting a vaccine. So even people who have

0:05:47.440 --> 0:05:50.279
<v Speaker 1>had the disease, be it mild, if they do not

0:05:50.400 --> 0:05:53.719
<v Speaker 1>have antibodies or antibody tigers, even if they were proven

0:05:53.760 --> 0:05:56.000
<v Speaker 1>to have it, we're going to have to convince them

0:05:56.040 --> 0:05:59.400
<v Speaker 1>to take the vaccine. In addition to people who have

0:05:59.520 --> 0:06:03.160
<v Speaker 1>never had the sellon people is a lot, and so

0:06:03.360 --> 0:06:06.800
<v Speaker 1>you're talking potentially, you know, a hundred million people who

0:06:06.800 --> 0:06:09.840
<v Speaker 1>will made a vaccine, maybe more, and that is a

0:06:09.920 --> 0:06:12.800
<v Speaker 1>serious concern. If if the majority or even a large

0:06:12.839 --> 0:06:15.200
<v Speaker 1>percent don't want to take a vaccine, that would be

0:06:15.240 --> 0:06:18.120
<v Speaker 1>a problem. Right all right, in less Pader, dr Ian

0:06:18.160 --> 0:06:20.640
<v Speaker 1>les Pader, hang with us for a minute. We're gonna

0:06:20.680 --> 0:06:24.120
<v Speaker 1>do some news and uh, some other business and come

0:06:24.120 --> 0:06:26.200
<v Speaker 1>back to you. We're gonna talk about reopening what you're

0:06:26.240 --> 0:06:28.839
<v Speaker 1>seeing here in New York because it is very different,

0:06:28.880 --> 0:06:30.400
<v Speaker 1>I think from what's going to the rest of the country.

0:06:30.560 --> 0:06:33.279
<v Speaker 1>One headline, Alex Crossing that you are nice enough to

0:06:33.440 --> 0:06:36.200
<v Speaker 1>just share with the group here. Trump says China trade

0:06:36.240 --> 0:06:39.640
<v Speaker 1>deal means less to him now after the virus. This

0:06:39.720 --> 0:06:42.080
<v Speaker 1>is based on an interview I believe he's giving with

0:06:42.440 --> 0:06:46.000
<v Speaker 1>barstool sports, barstools, Florts, bog Man. I'm pretty sure that's

0:06:46.040 --> 0:06:49.520
<v Speaker 1>David Portnoy's. Uh, yeah, it is. He was the guy

0:06:49.520 --> 0:06:51.880
<v Speaker 1>who sort of incited all the robin Hood traders, right,

0:06:51.960 --> 0:06:54.080
<v Speaker 1>He would take scrabble letters out of a scrabble bag

0:06:54.200 --> 0:06:56.239
<v Speaker 1>and then decide that's where he was going to invest.

0:06:56.320 --> 0:06:59.680
<v Speaker 1>So it's really interesting to me that Trump is giving

0:06:59.680 --> 0:07:02.880
<v Speaker 1>an interview to him specifically. But beside that point, you know,

0:07:02.960 --> 0:07:05.160
<v Speaker 1>the trade deal. Going after the trade deal, that's the

0:07:05.240 --> 0:07:07.240
<v Speaker 1>nuclear option in the market. So if he does that,

0:07:07.440 --> 0:07:10.720
<v Speaker 1>all bets off. Yeah. Absolutely, And we saw a lot

0:07:10.720 --> 0:07:13.720
<v Speaker 1>of evidence this week that even with consulate closures and

0:07:13.800 --> 0:07:15.600
<v Speaker 1>all the back and forth, as long as the trade

0:07:15.680 --> 0:07:18.720
<v Speaker 1>deal is intact, are exactly right investors like, all right,

0:07:18.920 --> 0:07:23.640
<v Speaker 1>we're gonna exactly all right. Much more ahead, including more

0:07:23.680 --> 0:07:28.000
<v Speaker 1>with Dr les Vader MS Boomberg. All right, so talk

0:07:28.040 --> 0:07:30.680
<v Speaker 1>to us about schools. Dr Ian les Pader, what's your

0:07:30.880 --> 0:07:33.160
<v Speaker 1>latest thinking as you talk to your colleagues on the

0:07:33.160 --> 0:07:36.880
<v Speaker 1>medical side, because everybody's got to take here, well, I've

0:07:36.920 --> 0:07:39.240
<v Speaker 1>got a number of teachers who are a little afraid

0:07:39.320 --> 0:07:42.800
<v Speaker 1>to go back. I think has been has been stated,

0:07:42.960 --> 0:07:46.000
<v Speaker 1>you know, young kids generally do very well. Also, they

0:07:46.080 --> 0:07:48.520
<v Speaker 1>carried the virus, but they tend not to be very sick,

0:07:48.840 --> 0:07:51.480
<v Speaker 1>so they're sort of acient tramatic carriers. So I think

0:07:51.520 --> 0:07:55.000
<v Speaker 1>students will be fairly safe, really even up through high

0:07:55.040 --> 0:07:57.760
<v Speaker 1>school without a problem. I probably through college as well.

0:07:58.120 --> 0:08:01.400
<v Speaker 1>Their teachers may have a little bit more risk, but

0:08:01.480 --> 0:08:04.760
<v Speaker 1>I believe nothing is risk free. Everything you do has

0:08:04.800 --> 0:08:06.960
<v Speaker 1>some risk, and I would say if you're not in

0:08:07.040 --> 0:08:10.640
<v Speaker 1>a high risk group high blood pressure, diabetes, obesity, many

0:08:10.640 --> 0:08:13.280
<v Speaker 1>of our teachers do have some of those problems. And

0:08:13.360 --> 0:08:16.360
<v Speaker 1>I think if you're wearing a mask and you're teaching,

0:08:16.680 --> 0:08:19.440
<v Speaker 1>I think you're you're relatively safe. And I think we

0:08:19.560 --> 0:08:23.760
<v Speaker 1>have to try school openings um because I think we

0:08:23.800 --> 0:08:27.760
<v Speaker 1>can't get the economy back until basically kids are safe

0:08:27.880 --> 0:08:30.920
<v Speaker 1>in schools. So I think it is reasonable to do

0:08:31.640 --> 0:08:34.640
<v Speaker 1>certainly in certain states like New York where the case

0:08:34.760 --> 0:08:37.920
<v Speaker 1>rate is way down, I think it's very reasonable and

0:08:37.960 --> 0:08:40.839
<v Speaker 1>appropriate to do that. And I think as we do

0:08:40.880 --> 0:08:44.360
<v Speaker 1>it and it works, people will feel more confident about it.

0:08:44.679 --> 0:08:47.400
<v Speaker 1>Other businesses may have a challenge. I see people sitting

0:08:47.400 --> 0:08:51.040
<v Speaker 1>in outdoor restaurants. It's definitely a smaller volume, and that

0:08:51.160 --> 0:08:56.680
<v Speaker 1>may be an economic risk, but I think people eating outside, uh,

0:08:56.720 --> 0:09:00.400
<v Speaker 1>if they're not shouting or speaking loudly and spreading virus,

0:09:00.679 --> 0:09:04.120
<v Speaker 1>I think that's also reasonably safe. And obviously with a

0:09:04.200 --> 0:09:07.520
<v Speaker 1>vaccine and with more herd immunity, it will over time

0:09:07.600 --> 0:09:10.280
<v Speaker 1>become more safe. Well, it seems like the two issues

0:09:10.280 --> 0:09:12.760
<v Speaker 1>tied together, and that like, once it gets cold, New

0:09:12.800 --> 0:09:14.840
<v Speaker 1>Yorkers don't like to be cold, so we're not going

0:09:14.880 --> 0:09:17.440
<v Speaker 1>to go out and sit outside in the restaurant, which

0:09:17.480 --> 0:09:20.360
<v Speaker 1>brings people back inside. You can't eat inside a restaurant

0:09:20.400 --> 0:09:23.120
<v Speaker 1>until least October one. It's the same thing for schools.

0:09:23.120 --> 0:09:26.600
<v Speaker 1>If it's crowded, what kind of indoor systems can you

0:09:26.760 --> 0:09:29.760
<v Speaker 1>have to make the ventilation better? So it's kind of

0:09:29.840 --> 0:09:34.880
<v Speaker 1>like being outside. You're exactly right. So I was recently

0:09:34.920 --> 0:09:38.240
<v Speaker 1>at the dentist and they have not only air cleaners

0:09:38.280 --> 0:09:41.840
<v Speaker 1>that exchange air in the roofs frequently, but UV lights

0:09:41.920 --> 0:09:45.079
<v Speaker 1>and so they've already adopted a series to make that

0:09:45.320 --> 0:09:48.400
<v Speaker 1>time in the chair a safer experience, and I think

0:09:48.400 --> 0:09:50.120
<v Speaker 1>we're going to really have to do that. It would

0:09:50.120 --> 0:09:52.800
<v Speaker 1>be smart to get a jump on this, and certainly

0:09:52.840 --> 0:09:57.400
<v Speaker 1>the New York City school system and really in other classrooms.

0:09:57.760 --> 0:09:59.959
<v Speaker 1>The most you can do is reduced risk. You can

0:10:00.040 --> 0:10:04.320
<v Speaker 1>ever eliminate risk. People may have asymptomatic carriage of the virus,

0:10:04.360 --> 0:10:07.040
<v Speaker 1>certain kids. But I think if we can do better

0:10:07.120 --> 0:10:10.440
<v Speaker 1>air exchange filters, ultra violet light, we can I think

0:10:10.480 --> 0:10:14.600
<v Speaker 1>at least reduce the risk to everyone in the classroom.

0:10:14.640 --> 0:10:17.600
<v Speaker 1>So Ian I asked this of almost everyone when we

0:10:17.640 --> 0:10:20.560
<v Speaker 1>talk about the virus or the markets right now, as

0:10:20.640 --> 0:10:23.360
<v Speaker 1>you think about it from a physician's perspective, what worries

0:10:23.360 --> 0:10:27.000
<v Speaker 1>you the most about the virus at this point? Well,

0:10:27.480 --> 0:10:30.920
<v Speaker 1>exactly as Alex said, you know, we're going into the

0:10:31.080 --> 0:10:33.720
<v Speaker 1>UH fall and winter where it will be difficult to

0:10:33.720 --> 0:10:37.280
<v Speaker 1>be outside where we will by definition of closer contact,

0:10:37.360 --> 0:10:40.360
<v Speaker 1>you can't entertain outside. And I don't think we're going

0:10:40.400 --> 0:10:43.560
<v Speaker 1>to have a vaccine until early that's what's for a

0:10:43.640 --> 0:10:46.920
<v Speaker 1>January or February. And exactly as you said that everyone

0:10:47.040 --> 0:10:49.679
<v Speaker 1>is willing to take it. So I think we may

0:10:49.720 --> 0:10:52.520
<v Speaker 1>reach a crunch not only in the number of cases,

0:10:52.559 --> 0:10:56.120
<v Speaker 1>but in the the exposure as the weather gets colder,

0:10:56.160 --> 0:10:59.520
<v Speaker 1>as we move indoors UH and as we perhaps get

0:10:59.559 --> 0:11:01.480
<v Speaker 1>a second a wave. So away think, no matter how

0:11:01.520 --> 0:11:03.840
<v Speaker 1>we slice it, We're going to see more and more

0:11:03.960 --> 0:11:08.280
<v Speaker 1>cases and unfortunately, more and more hospitalizations in depths. And

0:11:08.320 --> 0:11:12.000
<v Speaker 1>we're seeing that in the South and the next area

0:11:12.080 --> 0:11:14.280
<v Speaker 1>to rule maybe other parts of the country that have

0:11:14.360 --> 0:11:18.040
<v Speaker 1>been spared so far. Right, all right, well, we will

0:11:18.120 --> 0:11:20.600
<v Speaker 1>keep in touch with you. You You are always great at

0:11:20.640 --> 0:11:23.200
<v Speaker 1>giving us the latest, and we really really appreciate it.

0:11:23.320 --> 0:11:25.480
<v Speaker 1>Have a great weekend. Dr Ian less Paid, our clinical

0:11:25.520 --> 0:11:29.520
<v Speaker 1>Associate Professor of Medicine n y US Langon Medical Center,

0:11:29.600 --> 0:11:33.080
<v Speaker 1>joining us on the phone. And Alex, you nailed it.

0:11:33.120 --> 0:11:36.800
<v Speaker 1>I mean schools, schools, school schools. I feel like ones

0:11:36.840 --> 0:11:40.840
<v Speaker 1>in college are going to college, both both both finish it.

0:11:40.920 --> 0:11:43.240
<v Speaker 1>One finishing high school next year and one going to

0:11:43.280 --> 0:11:46.480
<v Speaker 1>be a junior. Yeah, senior, one junior. But they're going back, right,

0:11:47.480 --> 0:11:50.040
<v Speaker 1>they're going back as it right now? Yeah, yeah, here

0:11:50.040 --> 0:11:53.520
<v Speaker 1>in Westchester, part of New York State. But we are thinking,

0:11:53.760 --> 0:11:56.280
<v Speaker 1>we're still waiting to hear on the what the what

0:11:56.320 --> 0:11:58.959
<v Speaker 1>Governor Cuoma has to say because he is going region

0:11:59.000 --> 0:12:01.920
<v Speaker 1>by regions, so we'll see where all that ends up.

0:12:01.960 --> 0:12:03.840
<v Speaker 1>You know, I feel like Alex, coming out of that

0:12:03.880 --> 0:12:09.920
<v Speaker 1>conversation with Dr Ian les Bader, it is fair and

0:12:10.120 --> 0:12:13.360
<v Speaker 1>right to remind people that this virus is still ravaging

0:12:13.360 --> 0:12:16.760
<v Speaker 1>this country. It's easy, maybe a little easier to lose

0:12:16.800 --> 0:12:19.240
<v Speaker 1>sight of that here in the Greater New York area,

0:12:19.280 --> 0:12:22.160
<v Speaker 1>the Tri State area, because the numbers are way down.

0:12:22.600 --> 0:12:26.400
<v Speaker 1>California reporting the biggest one day record of a hundred

0:12:26.440 --> 0:12:31.280
<v Speaker 1>and fifty nine COVID nineteen deaths uh in California. I

0:12:31.280 --> 0:12:33.720
<v Speaker 1>don't know how you feel about this, but it felt

0:12:33.760 --> 0:12:37.040
<v Speaker 1>like at the beginning, California was on it. I totally agree,

0:12:37.840 --> 0:12:39.560
<v Speaker 1>and then all of a sudden, and I don't know

0:12:39.600 --> 0:12:42.319
<v Speaker 1>the intricacies of which regions opened up faster and than

0:12:42.360 --> 0:12:44.760
<v Speaker 1>how it spread, to be honest, but you're right and

0:12:44.800 --> 0:12:47.400
<v Speaker 1>that they had it together and the cases were down,

0:12:47.400 --> 0:12:49.480
<v Speaker 1>and then look what happened. And I think the reason

0:12:49.520 --> 0:12:53.959
<v Speaker 1>why this matters to investors is the difference in asset allocations.

0:12:53.960 --> 0:12:56.600
<v Speaker 1>So if you owned US assets because of the safety

0:12:56.640 --> 0:12:58.640
<v Speaker 1>trade and because the US government has a lot room

0:12:58.679 --> 0:13:00.520
<v Speaker 1>to move and because of the FED, and then you

0:13:00.559 --> 0:13:02.920
<v Speaker 1>see the case is just not under control, and you

0:13:03.000 --> 0:13:05.120
<v Speaker 1>see much more activity in Germany if you just take

0:13:05.160 --> 0:13:07.839
<v Speaker 1>a look at restaurants activity, for example, it's exploding in

0:13:07.880 --> 0:13:11.080
<v Speaker 1>Germany versus here. Um, where do you put your money.

0:13:11.080 --> 0:13:13.760
<v Speaker 1>Then yeah, I think it's a it's a really good

0:13:13.760 --> 0:13:15.760
<v Speaker 1>point because we are trying to to get a handle

0:13:15.760 --> 0:13:17.280
<v Speaker 1>in this. I mean to go back to something you

0:13:17.320 --> 0:13:22.280
<v Speaker 1>said before. Increasingly the reporting that I'm seeing indicates that

0:13:22.800 --> 0:13:25.679
<v Speaker 1>you really have a tale of two states in California.

0:13:25.720 --> 0:13:29.200
<v Speaker 1>That Northern California which did lock down a little bit sooner,

0:13:29.320 --> 0:13:31.440
<v Speaker 1>led by San Francisco, the mayor of San Francisco, and

0:13:31.480 --> 0:13:35.040
<v Speaker 1>really that whole Bay area all the way down through

0:13:35.080 --> 0:13:38.079
<v Speaker 1>Silicon Valley to San Jose they locked down very early,

0:13:38.160 --> 0:13:43.080
<v Speaker 1>stayed lockdown. Southern California was just enough behind. And I

0:13:43.120 --> 0:13:46.240
<v Speaker 1>think especially as you go south, just south of Los

0:13:46.240 --> 0:13:49.200
<v Speaker 1>Angeles into Orange County and maybe down to San Diego.

0:13:49.760 --> 0:13:52.079
<v Speaker 1>You know, you you go back, you think about those

0:13:52.080 --> 0:13:55.400
<v Speaker 1>pictures from the beaches a few weeks ago, um or

0:13:55.559 --> 0:13:58.240
<v Speaker 1>maybe now a couple of months ago. Time sort of

0:13:58.360 --> 0:14:01.800
<v Speaker 1>is melting together. Here is no there is no irrelevant,

0:14:02.679 --> 0:14:06.360
<v Speaker 1>but you know it is. Those are two very different things.

0:14:06.440 --> 0:14:08.640
<v Speaker 1>And I talked with a few people this week who

0:14:08.640 --> 0:14:11.840
<v Speaker 1>basically said, listen, I'm in northern California, and that's a

0:14:11.840 --> 0:14:15.160
<v Speaker 1>big distinction. But listen, I mean you look at Texas

0:14:15.200 --> 0:14:17.480
<v Speaker 1>and and also Texas I was talking to somebody this

0:14:17.520 --> 0:14:19.560
<v Speaker 1>morning about this sort of depends on where you are

0:14:19.640 --> 0:14:22.560
<v Speaker 1>in Texas as well. Florida is a little bit similar

0:14:22.600 --> 0:14:25.560
<v Speaker 1>to so UM. But what we do know is exactly

0:14:25.560 --> 0:14:27.680
<v Speaker 1>what you said a few minutes ago or a minute ago,

0:14:28.000 --> 0:14:32.800
<v Speaker 1>which is it's not under control. No, it's not UM.

0:14:32.840 --> 0:14:36.000
<v Speaker 1>And I think what's also interesting is if we do

0:14:36.080 --> 0:14:39.920
<v Speaker 1>get under control in that maybe the cases that we're

0:14:39.960 --> 0:14:43.200
<v Speaker 1>recording our younger people, so hospitalizations eventually will take lower,

0:14:43.520 --> 0:14:46.720
<v Speaker 1>and we do get stimulus out of d c UM. Well,

0:14:46.720 --> 0:14:49.080
<v Speaker 1>how does that set up the US economy then? I mean,

0:14:49.480 --> 0:14:51.640
<v Speaker 1>I don't I don't know how much we're priced for

0:14:51.760 --> 0:14:54.880
<v Speaker 1>that particular scenario either. And I just wonder how you

0:14:54.920 --> 0:14:56.920
<v Speaker 1>look at that, m Maybe you look at us really

0:14:57.000 --> 0:14:59.520
<v Speaker 1>yields and the inflation expectations, and that's kind of what

0:14:59.520 --> 0:15:02.000
<v Speaker 1>we're looking at. But I think that's an interesting part

0:15:02.120 --> 0:15:05.640
<v Speaker 1>uh A situation too, if we actually get it under control, right,

0:15:05.800 --> 0:15:08.280
<v Speaker 1>and so much of it You're exactly right, so much

0:15:08.280 --> 0:15:10.520
<v Speaker 1>of it keep saying that I'm exactly right. I'll come

0:15:10.560 --> 0:15:13.920
<v Speaker 1>back anytime. I know, I know, I really, I'm I

0:15:13.960 --> 0:15:15.680
<v Speaker 1>know as I get that at home. I'm a president

0:15:15.680 --> 0:15:18.160
<v Speaker 1>of the Alex Steel Fan Club. Um. But you know,

0:15:18.760 --> 0:15:21.640
<v Speaker 1>a lot of this is on the minds of legislators

0:15:21.720 --> 0:15:24.880
<v Speaker 1>clearly as they try and figure out what happens with

0:15:25.040 --> 0:15:27.840
<v Speaker 1>this next round. And someone who's watching this really really

0:15:27.840 --> 0:15:30.760
<v Speaker 1>closely is Derek Johnson. He is the president and chief

0:15:30.800 --> 0:15:33.320
<v Speaker 1>executive officer of the Double A cp Joints. Is on

0:15:33.360 --> 0:15:36.160
<v Speaker 1>the phone from Baltimore. Derek, really nice to have you

0:15:36.200 --> 0:15:40.240
<v Speaker 1>with Alex and myself. Thank you for our opportunity. So

0:15:40.320 --> 0:15:42.760
<v Speaker 1>let's talk about what's going on just down the road

0:15:42.800 --> 0:15:46.400
<v Speaker 1>from you in Washington as Congress in the administration try

0:15:46.440 --> 0:15:49.720
<v Speaker 1>and figure out what this next round should look like.

0:15:50.000 --> 0:15:53.120
<v Speaker 1>What is your key piece of advice, your key piece

0:15:53.160 --> 0:16:00.520
<v Speaker 1>of input to them, I will hope consider everyday working people, UH,

0:16:00.600 --> 0:16:05.160
<v Speaker 1>consider our economy, and to make sure our elections are safe.

0:16:05.520 --> 0:16:08.680
<v Speaker 1>Those are the key things that are on the table now,

0:16:09.040 --> 0:16:11.760
<v Speaker 1>both BLOT and MA up provision making sure that elected

0:16:11.800 --> 0:16:14.280
<v Speaker 1>administrations in place so we can carry it out election

0:16:14.320 --> 0:16:17.880
<v Speaker 1>in November. They can ensure that there are some extensions

0:16:17.920 --> 0:16:20.960
<v Speaker 1>of things like the undemployment benefits and a few other

0:16:21.040 --> 0:16:24.640
<v Speaker 1>things that are fingering because of the current health crisis

0:16:24.640 --> 0:16:28.360
<v Speaker 1>that we're in. Making sure that their their resources for

0:16:29.240 --> 0:16:32.640
<v Speaker 1>municipal and state governments because they are they're about to

0:16:32.680 --> 0:16:37.120
<v Speaker 1>hear the financial law, which will be devastating across the country.

0:16:37.400 --> 0:16:41.120
<v Speaker 1>And in terms of action, UM, no matter what the

0:16:41.120 --> 0:16:44.520
<v Speaker 1>government does, what kind of steps do you see companies making?

0:16:44.520 --> 0:16:47.040
<v Speaker 1>It are real? We see a lot of numbers being

0:16:47.040 --> 0:16:50.640
<v Speaker 1>thrown out X amount of money to black pecs, X

0:16:50.640 --> 0:16:55.960
<v Speaker 1>amount of money for equality, etcetera. What's real? What is

0:16:56.000 --> 0:17:00.240
<v Speaker 1>real is true systemic approaches to address that the cays

0:17:00.280 --> 0:17:03.520
<v Speaker 1>A loan problems that have built up around inequity. Uh.

0:17:03.960 --> 0:17:07.680
<v Speaker 1>Some companies are are season punting the moment to give

0:17:07.720 --> 0:17:10.800
<v Speaker 1>the rosy statements and then uh, in a few months

0:17:10.840 --> 0:17:13.240
<v Speaker 1>from now, when all of the attention has died down,

0:17:14.000 --> 0:17:15.679
<v Speaker 1>whether or not they're going to go back to business

0:17:15.720 --> 0:17:18.520
<v Speaker 1>as usual. UH. I think Ropert Smith had put forth

0:17:18.560 --> 0:17:21.400
<v Speaker 1>a really good uh and a smart plan. UH. Let's

0:17:21.400 --> 0:17:24.239
<v Speaker 1>talk about the super cent solution. We have twenty one

0:17:24.280 --> 0:17:28.840
<v Speaker 1>African American banks across the country. How can they get

0:17:28.880 --> 0:17:33.760
<v Speaker 1>more capital to lend out to build a stronger entrepreneur

0:17:33.920 --> 0:17:37.240
<v Speaker 1>class within the black community. The number one problem with

0:17:37.400 --> 0:17:39.919
<v Speaker 1>entrepreneurs and small business of the black community has access

0:17:39.960 --> 0:17:43.000
<v Speaker 1>to capital, and it with more capital, you see more

0:17:43.000 --> 0:17:47.360
<v Speaker 1>growth is UH. It's it's a great opportunity that has

0:17:47.400 --> 0:17:50.720
<v Speaker 1>been untapped in our realized well. And it's interesting. I

0:17:50.800 --> 0:17:52.320
<v Speaker 1>did want to talk to you if we could, Derek

0:17:52.400 --> 0:17:56.040
<v Speaker 1>briefly about a deal that you did with Viacom CBS,

0:17:56.200 --> 0:17:59.240
<v Speaker 1>because you know so much of this really is it's

0:17:59.240 --> 0:18:02.440
<v Speaker 1>an economic piece that you just discussed it. There's also

0:18:02.480 --> 0:18:07.680
<v Speaker 1>a representation piece that ties right into that. UH into

0:18:07.720 --> 0:18:09.840
<v Speaker 1>that economic piece of it. Tell us about this deal

0:18:09.880 --> 0:18:14.080
<v Speaker 1>with CBS, but we begin to have a conversation with

0:18:14.160 --> 0:18:18.760
<v Speaker 1>CBS Studios UH with the goal in mind of n

0:18:18.760 --> 0:18:23.879
<v Speaker 1>Double ACP partnering to build and developed content how people

0:18:24.080 --> 0:18:27.480
<v Speaker 1>see African Americans on the screen, whether big screen or television,

0:18:27.840 --> 0:18:31.560
<v Speaker 1>oftentimes the perception of how we are treated out in public.

0:18:32.200 --> 0:18:34.520
<v Speaker 1>For the INN Double A c P, we have always

0:18:34.600 --> 0:18:38.040
<v Speaker 1>advocated around the images that are projected. At a hundred

0:18:38.040 --> 0:18:42.880
<v Speaker 1>and eleven year old organization, our second major advocacy fight

0:18:43.320 --> 0:18:45.439
<v Speaker 1>was around the release of a movie call Birth of

0:18:45.440 --> 0:18:48.080
<v Speaker 1>a Nation, because we knew the impact of that movie

0:18:48.080 --> 0:18:52.399
<v Speaker 1>would have a devastating impact on African Americans UH in

0:18:52.560 --> 0:18:56.480
<v Speaker 1>nineteen and which came which came to be true. As

0:18:56.480 --> 0:19:00.359
<v Speaker 1>a result of that movie, UH clan membership UH was

0:19:00.480 --> 0:19:04.520
<v Speaker 1>greater in states like Indiana and Michigan UH in the

0:19:04.600 --> 0:19:09.040
<v Speaker 1>nineteen thirties than it was membership in states of Georgia, Alabama,

0:19:09.040 --> 0:19:14.159
<v Speaker 1>and Mississippi. UH. That projection from that movie spurred a

0:19:14.359 --> 0:19:18.040
<v Speaker 1>whole new unfortunate reality for African Americans and how we

0:19:18.040 --> 0:19:22.080
<v Speaker 1>were treated. So this deal is leading on that. On

0:19:22.119 --> 0:19:24.760
<v Speaker 1>that reality, we have a president in Hollywood. We do

0:19:24.800 --> 0:19:27.080
<v Speaker 1>an annual show called The Image a Wars. But it

0:19:27.160 --> 0:19:30.600
<v Speaker 1>is our goal to expand our footprints so that more

0:19:30.680 --> 0:19:34.119
<v Speaker 1>positive images will be projective of African Americans because there

0:19:34.119 --> 0:19:38.160
<v Speaker 1>are so many rich stories around how we have America

0:19:38.240 --> 0:19:41.399
<v Speaker 1>be America. We know, alright, we're gonna leave it there.

0:19:41.400 --> 0:19:43.040
<v Speaker 1>Thank you so much for your time. We really appreciate.

0:19:43.080 --> 0:19:45.920
<v Speaker 1>Dereck Johnson, President and CEO of the Double A CP

0:19:46.040 --> 0:19:48.159
<v Speaker 1>will hope you'll come back. He joined us on the

0:19:48.160 --> 0:19:51.560
<v Speaker 1>phone from Baltimore and Alex such an important point there

0:19:51.600 --> 0:19:53.639
<v Speaker 1>at the end, and you know, takes me back not

0:19:53.880 --> 0:19:56.160
<v Speaker 1>a little quick flex here, you know, to the story

0:19:56.160 --> 0:19:57.920
<v Speaker 1>that I was working on for a long time about

0:19:58.000 --> 0:20:00.360
<v Speaker 1>Lebron James and Maverickrtter what they're doing with spring Hill.

0:20:00.800 --> 0:20:04.720
<v Speaker 1>You know they did a documentary about the first female

0:20:04.840 --> 0:20:08.400
<v Speaker 1>millionaire in the United States, African American woman just down

0:20:08.400 --> 0:20:10.919
<v Speaker 1>the road from me in Irvington, New York, Madam C. J. Walker,

0:20:11.080 --> 0:20:14.040
<v Speaker 1>Which that's Westchester, but still New York, but still New York.

0:20:14.040 --> 0:20:16.280
<v Speaker 1>But it's important to remember that. It is important to

0:20:16.280 --> 0:20:18.679
<v Speaker 1>remember that, and I'm glad you made that distinction. It

0:20:18.720 --> 0:20:21.159
<v Speaker 1>means a lot to me, you know, it means a

0:20:21.200 --> 0:20:23.280
<v Speaker 1>lot that you're listening to me, and and that I

0:20:23.359 --> 0:20:26.560
<v Speaker 1>just we're not married. I'll listen to you all the time.

0:20:27.840 --> 0:20:31.439
<v Speaker 1>You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and

0:20:31.520 --> 0:20:35.359
<v Speaker 1>Jason Kelly on Bloomberg Radio. All right, let's talk a

0:20:35.359 --> 0:20:39.199
<v Speaker 1>little Business Week economics. Now, this is the guy we

0:20:39.280 --> 0:20:42.960
<v Speaker 1>need to hear from as everything is going on between

0:20:43.000 --> 0:20:46.720
<v Speaker 1>the US and China. Alex, we're talking about Tom or Like,

0:20:46.840 --> 0:20:49.520
<v Speaker 1>chief economists for Bloomberg Economicsly joins us on the phone

0:20:50.000 --> 0:20:53.280
<v Speaker 1>from Washington. All right, Tom, I feel like this is

0:20:53.320 --> 0:20:56.400
<v Speaker 1>a little bit of a reality check Friday. So many headlines,

0:20:56.480 --> 0:20:59.600
<v Speaker 1>so much rhetoric, but even beyond that, some actual action

0:20:59.680 --> 0:21:02.840
<v Speaker 1>being taken with consulates closing here in the United States

0:21:02.880 --> 0:21:06.040
<v Speaker 1>and then of course over in Chung do. What do

0:21:06.080 --> 0:21:11.320
<v Speaker 1>you make of this? Great to be on Jason Um, So,

0:21:11.680 --> 0:21:16.600
<v Speaker 1>I think the latest developments are a little bit alarming. Um.

0:21:16.640 --> 0:21:19.560
<v Speaker 1>If we think about the last four years of US

0:21:19.680 --> 0:21:23.719
<v Speaker 1>China relations under the Trump administration, UM, clearly it's not

0:21:23.800 --> 0:21:27.400
<v Speaker 1>been super friendly. Right. We've had a trade war, we've

0:21:27.440 --> 0:21:31.359
<v Speaker 1>had sanctions on Huawei. UM. But all of it was

0:21:31.440 --> 0:21:36.600
<v Speaker 1>within the framework of engagement. Right. There was a recognition

0:21:36.880 --> 0:21:40.600
<v Speaker 1>that there were benefits to the relationship. Yes, the US

0:21:40.720 --> 0:21:45.680
<v Speaker 1>said China was behaving badly on intellectual property, on market access,

0:21:45.720 --> 0:21:48.320
<v Speaker 1>and we needed to take steps to address that. But

0:21:48.400 --> 0:21:50.879
<v Speaker 1>if we could address those problems, then we could have

0:21:50.920 --> 0:21:55.639
<v Speaker 1>a mutually beneficial trading relationship. If you read the latest

0:21:55.640 --> 0:22:00.920
<v Speaker 1>speeches by senior officials, the Pompeo speech, a bar speech,

0:22:01.119 --> 0:22:05.640
<v Speaker 1>the O'Brien's speech, there's just a completely different tone. Um.

0:22:05.680 --> 0:22:08.600
<v Speaker 1>It's no longer talking about some problems that we need

0:22:08.640 --> 0:22:11.440
<v Speaker 1>to fix so we can move forward. UM. It's talking

0:22:11.520 --> 0:22:14.879
<v Speaker 1>really in terms of a sort of an existential conflict

0:22:15.320 --> 0:22:21.080
<v Speaker 1>between two mutually incompatible systems. And if that's the approach

0:22:21.119 --> 0:22:25.439
<v Speaker 1>which DC is now taking, then the question is, well,

0:22:26.080 --> 0:22:29.600
<v Speaker 1>what can the US and China work together on in

0:22:29.640 --> 0:22:32.840
<v Speaker 1>a constructive way. What is interesting to me is the

0:22:32.920 --> 0:22:36.000
<v Speaker 1>last two days President Trump and some capacity said that

0:22:36.080 --> 0:22:38.880
<v Speaker 1>he no longer loved the trade deal, that he likes

0:22:38.920 --> 0:22:42.399
<v Speaker 1>it less because of COVID. What does that mean? What

0:22:42.520 --> 0:22:45.919
<v Speaker 1>does that signify to you? Yeah, I think that's a

0:22:46.000 --> 0:22:49.000
<v Speaker 1>really that was a striking quote from President Trump. Aallex

0:22:49.440 --> 0:22:53.120
<v Speaker 1>um And I think that the trade deal, Um, it's

0:22:53.119 --> 0:22:54.920
<v Speaker 1>sort of it's funny to think about it in this

0:22:54.960 --> 0:22:58.320
<v Speaker 1>way in some ways, because of course the trade negotiations

0:22:58.359 --> 0:23:00.760
<v Speaker 1>and the tariffs at the time, we're sort of an

0:23:00.920 --> 0:23:04.879
<v Speaker 1>enormous source of conflict between China and the US. But

0:23:05.000 --> 0:23:08.440
<v Speaker 1>in retrospect, it now seems that actually that was what

0:23:08.520 --> 0:23:11.639
<v Speaker 1>was keeping things on the rails right. It was the

0:23:11.720 --> 0:23:15.280
<v Speaker 1>desire to get a trade deal done, which was preventing

0:23:15.640 --> 0:23:20.000
<v Speaker 1>these sort of more hawkish voices from from from increasing

0:23:20.000 --> 0:23:24.560
<v Speaker 1>the volume and adding tension to the relationship. And now

0:23:24.560 --> 0:23:27.959
<v Speaker 1>we have the COVID crisis, the trade hill just seems

0:23:28.080 --> 0:23:31.560
<v Speaker 1>much less important. So we're seeing these much more hawkish

0:23:31.640 --> 0:23:36.320
<v Speaker 1>voices from Pompeo, from bar from o'bien, from O'Brien starting

0:23:36.359 --> 0:23:41.800
<v Speaker 1>to reshape the debate. So tom uh I neglected to mention,

0:23:41.880 --> 0:23:43.679
<v Speaker 1>and I should always mention when someone has a new

0:23:43.720 --> 0:23:45.280
<v Speaker 1>book out. You have a great new book out, it's

0:23:45.320 --> 0:23:47.920
<v Speaker 1>called China, the Bubble that Never pops. I do wonder

0:23:48.080 --> 0:23:51.760
<v Speaker 1>through that lens, through the economic lens that you view

0:23:52.400 --> 0:23:57.200
<v Speaker 1>the entire world, but especially China, what are the economic ramifications?

0:23:57.240 --> 0:24:00.439
<v Speaker 1>And as Alex just Alex just nicely tied up, you know,

0:24:01.000 --> 0:24:03.600
<v Speaker 1>trade is clearly a part of this. And as you're

0:24:03.680 --> 0:24:08.840
<v Speaker 1>looking at China and its economic might or it's economic fragility,

0:24:08.880 --> 0:24:14.840
<v Speaker 1>what do political moves like this ultimately potentially mean. So

0:24:15.440 --> 0:24:18.240
<v Speaker 1>I think about this in two steps, Jason. So the

0:24:18.280 --> 0:24:21.639
<v Speaker 1>first question is, well, what if the US just goes

0:24:21.680 --> 0:24:24.920
<v Speaker 1>down this path on its own, What if the US

0:24:25.080 --> 0:24:30.080
<v Speaker 1>unilaterally attempts to kind of freeze China out. Well, if

0:24:30.119 --> 0:24:33.760
<v Speaker 1>that happens, I'd actually be more worried about costs to

0:24:33.880 --> 0:24:38.199
<v Speaker 1>the US, because if that happens, China can continue to

0:24:38.840 --> 0:24:43.199
<v Speaker 1>do technology transfer, do trade with the European Union, with Japan,

0:24:43.359 --> 0:24:46.600
<v Speaker 1>with Korea, with all the other emerging markets in the world.

0:24:47.119 --> 0:24:51.000
<v Speaker 1>Um second step is or the second question is, well,

0:24:51.280 --> 0:24:54.160
<v Speaker 1>what if the US starts to build a kind of

0:24:54.400 --> 0:24:59.480
<v Speaker 1>multilateral alliance around this new view on China? Right, What

0:24:59.560 --> 0:25:03.600
<v Speaker 1>if the S convinces Europe, Japan, Career and other countries

0:25:03.920 --> 0:25:07.719
<v Speaker 1>that there is this existential threat um. And it's not

0:25:07.800 --> 0:25:10.320
<v Speaker 1>just the US, but it's all these other countries saying

0:25:10.640 --> 0:25:14.000
<v Speaker 1>we need to change the trade relationship. We can't cooperate

0:25:14.080 --> 0:25:17.639
<v Speaker 1>with you on research, we can't share our technology. Um.

0:25:17.680 --> 0:25:20.240
<v Speaker 1>If that happens, UM, I think we're going to have

0:25:20.320 --> 0:25:23.640
<v Speaker 1>to start getting a little bit more pessimistic on China's

0:25:23.840 --> 0:25:28.080
<v Speaker 1>medium term growth prospect. Haven't we started to see that? Uh?

0:25:28.119 --> 0:25:31.480
<v Speaker 1>And the recent moves by the UK, for example, UM.

0:25:31.640 --> 0:25:34.439
<v Speaker 1>France though sticking with Huawei for now. But aren't we

0:25:34.440 --> 0:25:38.240
<v Speaker 1>starting to see this? Yeah? So I think that's another

0:25:38.240 --> 0:25:41.640
<v Speaker 1>good point, Alex um So. Three years ago, it really

0:25:41.680 --> 0:25:43.959
<v Speaker 1>seemed like the US was out on its own on

0:25:44.000 --> 0:25:46.800
<v Speaker 1>this and indeed doing a bunch of things which weren't

0:25:46.800 --> 0:25:49.720
<v Speaker 1>that constructive. Right. So, the US was trying to have

0:25:49.760 --> 0:25:52.959
<v Speaker 1>a trade war with China, Mexico, Canada, and Europe all

0:25:53.000 --> 0:25:56.199
<v Speaker 1>at the same time. And when you do that, you

0:25:56.240 --> 0:25:59.280
<v Speaker 1>can't bring your allies with you if your main objective

0:25:59.520 --> 0:26:02.760
<v Speaker 1>is changed during the relationship with China. UM. So what's

0:26:02.880 --> 0:26:05.280
<v Speaker 1>changed clearly in the last few months is that We've

0:26:05.320 --> 0:26:10.520
<v Speaker 1>seen some other voices the UK, Australia and really start

0:26:10.560 --> 0:26:14.240
<v Speaker 1>to change their tone on China, the UK for example,

0:26:14.359 --> 0:26:16.840
<v Speaker 1>saying they're going to pull Hua away out of their

0:26:16.880 --> 0:26:21.120
<v Speaker 1>telecom system. Um. The question I have, and it's sort

0:26:21.160 --> 0:26:23.359
<v Speaker 1>of it's a difficult one to answer, is well, what

0:26:23.480 --> 0:26:26.879
<v Speaker 1>happens in November? Um is the is it if we

0:26:26.960 --> 0:26:29.960
<v Speaker 1>get the Trump administration coming back, then clearly it would

0:26:29.960 --> 0:26:33.080
<v Speaker 1>be sort of on the same course if we get

0:26:33.080 --> 0:26:36.600
<v Speaker 1>a Biden administration. How much would they be locked into

0:26:36.640 --> 0:26:41.520
<v Speaker 1>this new sort of adversarial relationship with China and how

0:26:41.600 --> 0:26:44.680
<v Speaker 1>much would they try and sort of pull back and say, yes,

0:26:44.760 --> 0:26:46.919
<v Speaker 1>there's areas where we disagree and we need to be

0:26:47.000 --> 0:26:50.000
<v Speaker 1>tough here, but there's also areas where we can work together.

0:26:50.960 --> 0:26:53.040
<v Speaker 1>Tom Or, like you always make a smarter We really

0:26:53.080 --> 0:26:55.960
<v Speaker 1>appreciate it. Thank you so much for joining us. Tom

0:26:56.080 --> 0:26:58.760
<v Speaker 1>Or like of course, as chief economists for Bloomberg Economics,

0:26:58.800 --> 0:27:00.920
<v Speaker 1>joining us on the phone from DC and check out

0:27:01.000 --> 0:27:04.160
<v Speaker 1>his very timely book, China The Bubble That Never Pops.

0:27:04.240 --> 0:27:08.239
<v Speaker 1>It's a terrific read. Uh, and you should read it

0:27:08.400 --> 0:27:12.520
<v Speaker 1>during quarantine. You've got time, right, Yeah, we have time?

0:27:12.760 --> 0:27:15.560
<v Speaker 1>What's time anyway? But we are seeing China get more

0:27:15.600 --> 0:27:18.440
<v Speaker 1>aggressive in other areas, like with India, for example. I'll China,

0:27:18.480 --> 0:27:21.560
<v Speaker 1>see so I wonder how offensive or defensive that actually

0:27:21.600 --> 0:27:24.240
<v Speaker 1>is right now in this environment. And I really liked

0:27:24.280 --> 0:27:27.639
<v Speaker 1>Tom's point to about you know what November brings and

0:27:27.680 --> 0:27:31.359
<v Speaker 1>really I guess more pointedly what a new administration brings

0:27:31.520 --> 0:27:37.800
<v Speaker 1>versus a maybe uh slightly more aggressive Trump administration when

0:27:37.800 --> 0:27:40.520
<v Speaker 1>it comes to China. Because this certainly has been a

0:27:40.560 --> 0:27:43.920
<v Speaker 1>story that we've been following very closely and will continue to.

0:27:44.240 --> 0:27:47.119
<v Speaker 1>You are listening to Bloomberg Business Week, Jason Kelly and

0:27:47.200 --> 0:27:50.680
<v Speaker 1>Alex Steel here with you on a Friday, So let's

0:27:50.720 --> 0:27:54.840
<v Speaker 1>turn to the magazine. A great story by William Turton.

0:27:55.160 --> 0:27:57.800
<v Speaker 1>He is cybersecurity reporter for Bluemberg, joining us on the

0:27:57.800 --> 0:28:00.119
<v Speaker 1>phone from New York along with Joel Webber, edit or

0:28:00.160 --> 0:28:04.320
<v Speaker 1>a Bloomberg Business Week. He joins us from Massachusetts. I

0:28:04.359 --> 0:28:07.199
<v Speaker 1>love this story, Joel, in part because I read it

0:28:07.200 --> 0:28:09.680
<v Speaker 1>and said, wait, did that's a facts Missip? What what

0:28:09.800 --> 0:28:15.600
<v Speaker 1>this is a story tell us about? We brought it,

0:28:15.720 --> 0:28:18.840
<v Speaker 1>We brought William here to tell us all about facts machines.

0:28:19.119 --> 0:28:22.080
<v Speaker 1>Um No, but for really this, uh, it's sort of

0:28:22.119 --> 0:28:25.440
<v Speaker 1>this incredible story. UM, a company called North Hydro, big

0:28:25.480 --> 0:28:29.040
<v Speaker 1>player in the aluminum world. Uh, with the victim of

0:28:29.040 --> 0:28:32.560
<v Speaker 1>a ransomware attack. And usually that does not end well

0:28:32.600 --> 0:28:36.239
<v Speaker 1>for companies. And there's a whole cottage industry of of

0:28:36.280 --> 0:28:38.920
<v Speaker 1>consultants who who comes to your assistance to help you

0:28:39.680 --> 0:28:41.680
<v Speaker 1>get yourself out of a bind and maybe you to

0:28:41.800 --> 0:28:46.000
<v Speaker 1>negotiate um and pay the bitcoin and UH, this company,

0:28:46.040 --> 0:28:49.680
<v Speaker 1>North Hydro said we're not going to do that and

0:28:49.800 --> 0:28:54.240
<v Speaker 1>they would totally analog for as an answer. UH. And

0:28:55.360 --> 0:28:57.520
<v Speaker 1>William was the one who sort of unearthed this story

0:28:57.560 --> 0:29:00.040
<v Speaker 1>for us. Um, William, how did how did you on

0:29:00.200 --> 0:29:03.760
<v Speaker 1>the story and how did this drama unfold their at

0:29:03.800 --> 0:29:07.200
<v Speaker 1>the company? So thanks for having me by the way.

0:29:07.440 --> 0:29:10.920
<v Speaker 1>You know, something that's really interesting is that companies are

0:29:11.040 --> 0:29:14.280
<v Speaker 1>very often hit by these kind of ransomware attacks. But

0:29:14.440 --> 0:29:17.800
<v Speaker 1>you know, what they decided to do is to um

0:29:18.160 --> 0:29:20.360
<v Speaker 1>keep it quiet. You know, they don't want people to

0:29:20.480 --> 0:29:22.239
<v Speaker 1>know that they've been hit by a ransomware attack. And

0:29:22.280 --> 0:29:25.040
<v Speaker 1>you know that's kind of understandable. You have these concerns

0:29:25.040 --> 0:29:28.360
<v Speaker 1>about customer data and the reputation of your of your company.

0:29:28.680 --> 0:29:31.880
<v Speaker 1>But North guastally did something really different here. UM. You know,

0:29:31.960 --> 0:29:35.000
<v Speaker 1>most companies keep this all wrapped up under attorney client

0:29:35.040 --> 0:29:37.520
<v Speaker 1>privilege when they bring in these consultants to to fix

0:29:37.560 --> 0:29:40.080
<v Speaker 1>the attack. But North decided that they would talk about

0:29:40.080 --> 0:29:42.360
<v Speaker 1>it and they would talk about their response. Though. I

0:29:42.440 --> 0:29:44.440
<v Speaker 1>was really grateful to them for kind of letting me

0:29:44.480 --> 0:29:47.320
<v Speaker 1>inside and seeing how it all worked. And you know,

0:29:47.360 --> 0:29:50.680
<v Speaker 1>the story is pretty incredible. They their entire network was

0:29:50.760 --> 0:29:53.160
<v Speaker 1>taken down and suddenly at all their plants and all

0:29:53.160 --> 0:29:55.800
<v Speaker 1>their offices around the world had to kind of scramble

0:29:55.960 --> 0:29:58.640
<v Speaker 1>to keep the company running, to keep everything afloat, and

0:29:58.720 --> 0:30:01.040
<v Speaker 1>to figure out, you know, how do you pay employees,

0:30:01.040 --> 0:30:03.600
<v Speaker 1>how do you process orders when you literally don't have

0:30:03.640 --> 0:30:06.840
<v Speaker 1>access to your corporate network anymore? How did you find

0:30:06.880 --> 0:30:12.800
<v Speaker 1>this story? Uh So, a lot of the word kind

0:30:12.800 --> 0:30:15.400
<v Speaker 1>of got out that North could have been hit by ransomware,

0:30:15.480 --> 0:30:19.160
<v Speaker 1>right they had posted publicly that their network was down.

0:30:19.760 --> 0:30:23.040
<v Speaker 1>And also, you know, something really interesting happens often when

0:30:23.760 --> 0:30:26.360
<v Speaker 1>UM companies are hit by ransomware. You know, you'll have

0:30:26.480 --> 0:30:29.000
<v Speaker 1>the kind of smart computer people come in and a

0:30:29.040 --> 0:30:32.720
<v Speaker 1>lot of times they'll upload, uh, you know, the malware

0:30:32.880 --> 0:30:35.480
<v Speaker 1>that the company got hit with to a portal called

0:30:35.560 --> 0:30:39.960
<v Speaker 1>virus Total So suddenly, on the same day that there was, um,

0:30:40.000 --> 0:30:43.280
<v Speaker 1>you know, a ransomware event announced it north there was

0:30:43.320 --> 0:30:46.520
<v Speaker 1>an upload from Norway to virus total of this this

0:30:46.680 --> 0:30:50.040
<v Speaker 1>ransomware called locker goga UM. So you know you could

0:30:50.080 --> 0:30:52.440
<v Speaker 1>kind of put the pieces together that they had been

0:30:52.480 --> 0:30:54.959
<v Speaker 1>hit by locker goga UM. So from there I kind

0:30:55.000 --> 0:30:57.120
<v Speaker 1>of reached out to the company and they were gracious

0:30:57.200 --> 0:30:59.520
<v Speaker 1>enough to let me come inside and see what it was. Like.

0:31:00.520 --> 0:31:04.000
<v Speaker 1>I mean, William, it is sort of amazing how reliant

0:31:04.080 --> 0:31:07.200
<v Speaker 1>we are on technology. I mean, I'm sure everyone on

0:31:07.360 --> 0:31:10.560
<v Speaker 1>this interview has had that experience of you know, the

0:31:10.600 --> 0:31:12.720
<v Speaker 1>power goes out of the WiFi goes out, and you're like,

0:31:13.280 --> 0:31:17.040
<v Speaker 1>what am I support? Like everything I need and do

0:31:17.320 --> 0:31:20.120
<v Speaker 1>and one relies on this and I'm just a dude,

0:31:20.200 --> 0:31:22.720
<v Speaker 1>like I'm not running a company here. It's got to

0:31:22.800 --> 0:31:30.080
<v Speaker 1>be a really sort of disturbing thing machine, right. You know.

0:31:30.120 --> 0:31:32.240
<v Speaker 1>There's there's this kind of great character in the story,

0:31:32.320 --> 0:31:36.840
<v Speaker 1>this guy Michael Hammer, who runs the plant in in Crosona, Pennsylvania.

0:31:36.880 --> 0:31:39.760
<v Speaker 1>He's been running this aluminum plant for twenty five years.

0:31:40.000 --> 0:31:41.960
<v Speaker 1>You know, I walked around with him. He could tell

0:31:42.000 --> 0:31:45.000
<v Speaker 1>you every single little detail of how the plant works

0:31:45.000 --> 0:31:47.200
<v Speaker 1>and who works there. But he has this great quote

0:31:47.200 --> 0:31:48.840
<v Speaker 1>this in the story. He said, you know, I didn't

0:31:48.840 --> 0:31:51.520
<v Speaker 1>know what the hell a bitcoin was um when they

0:31:51.600 --> 0:31:54.000
<v Speaker 1>got packed. So you know a lot of people were

0:31:54.360 --> 0:31:56.160
<v Speaker 1>scandling and figuring out what to do, and they and

0:31:56.200 --> 0:31:58.640
<v Speaker 1>they seriously were just you know, they had an incident

0:31:58.760 --> 0:32:02.680
<v Speaker 1>response plan, they had planned you know, business continuity plans,

0:32:02.720 --> 0:32:04.280
<v Speaker 1>but at some level you kind of have to wing

0:32:04.360 --> 0:32:06.720
<v Speaker 1>it right. So you know, they were setting up group

0:32:06.800 --> 0:32:10.239
<v Speaker 1>chats on text messages on their own personal phones. They

0:32:10.240 --> 0:32:13.720
<v Speaker 1>were placing signs on the door. Um. You know, bank

0:32:14.120 --> 0:32:17.760
<v Speaker 1>would not communicate with Norse electronically because the banks were

0:32:17.760 --> 0:32:20.920
<v Speaker 1>afraid that, you know, somehow maybe the malware might jump

0:32:20.960 --> 0:32:23.840
<v Speaker 1>from the North network to their network, so they had

0:32:23.880 --> 0:32:26.640
<v Speaker 1>to find ways to issue payment and invoices and that

0:32:26.720 --> 0:32:30.720
<v Speaker 1>involved you know, facting back and forth. So a great

0:32:30.720 --> 0:32:34.560
<v Speaker 1>part of the story becomes this analog solution um that

0:32:34.600 --> 0:32:38.880
<v Speaker 1>the company ends up doing. And could you walk us

0:32:38.920 --> 0:32:42.840
<v Speaker 1>through that process, William, And then also I'm curious, you

0:32:42.880 --> 0:32:45.880
<v Speaker 1>know what for brother companies out there, like if if

0:32:45.880 --> 0:32:48.560
<v Speaker 1>this drid forbid ever happens to them, like what's the

0:32:48.720 --> 0:32:52.000
<v Speaker 1>end game? Ultimately looked like and you have one minute

0:32:52.000 --> 0:32:55.800
<v Speaker 1>to do that, William. Sure. So you know, they brought

0:32:55.960 --> 0:32:58.200
<v Speaker 1>employees in and a lot of employees were concerned about

0:32:58.200 --> 0:33:01.040
<v Speaker 1>their data being missing, and they brought in Microsoft, they

0:33:01.080 --> 0:33:02.880
<v Speaker 1>brought another teams and they what they did is they

0:33:02.920 --> 0:33:06.520
<v Speaker 1>rebuilt their entire network from scratch. Um. They had backups

0:33:07.040 --> 0:33:09.080
<v Speaker 1>to rebuild the network. But the key for you know,

0:33:09.120 --> 0:33:12.800
<v Speaker 1>for other businesses you'll hear this from cybersecurity companies, is

0:33:12.800 --> 0:33:15.280
<v Speaker 1>that you need to make sure that your corporate data

0:33:15.920 --> 0:33:18.480
<v Speaker 1>is backed up and that you test those backups so

0:33:18.480 --> 0:33:22.320
<v Speaker 1>that it works. Because these criminal ransomware groups are constantly

0:33:22.320 --> 0:33:25.280
<v Speaker 1>on the hunt for vulnerable companies and they'll attack you

0:33:25.320 --> 0:33:28.240
<v Speaker 1>whether you know your your secure insecure there. You know,

0:33:28.280 --> 0:33:30.640
<v Speaker 1>they'll spend a lot of time researching your company and

0:33:30.680 --> 0:33:33.280
<v Speaker 1>trying to you know, infect it with malware and then

0:33:33.320 --> 0:33:37.200
<v Speaker 1>hold you for millions of dollars of ransom in some cases. Um,

0:33:37.240 --> 0:33:39.080
<v Speaker 1>so you need to be like vigilant and and not

0:33:39.240 --> 0:33:41.760
<v Speaker 1>think that it won't happen to you, because you know

0:33:41.920 --> 0:33:45.120
<v Speaker 1>eventually it might. Yeah. Absolutely, Well, it's a great story.

0:33:45.240 --> 0:33:49.280
<v Speaker 1>Next weekend. Read William Turton's cybersecurity reporter for Bloomberg. Join

0:33:49.360 --> 0:33:51.000
<v Speaker 1>us on the film from New York City. Joel Webber,

0:33:51.240 --> 0:33:53.800
<v Speaker 1>the editor of the magazine, joined us from Massachusetts, crippled

0:33:53.800 --> 0:33:57.480
<v Speaker 1>by ransomware an aluminum giant when analog to survive facts

0:33:57.680 --> 0:34:01.720
<v Speaker 1>posts in old PCs to beat those bad cyber criminals.

0:34:01.760 --> 0:34:04.600
<v Speaker 1>Alex Steel, I mean I still use post its ps.

0:34:04.680 --> 0:34:06.800
<v Speaker 1>You should look at my computer. It's like littered impost its.

0:34:07.040 --> 0:34:11.239
<v Speaker 1>Oh yeah, no, my my regular broadcast white has that

0:34:11.320 --> 0:34:19.680
<v Speaker 1>same problem, brother, journal. But you let me drive? Oh no,

0:34:19.680 --> 0:34:23.680
<v Speaker 1>no, no no, no, drive home, honey, please, I'll do the

0:34:23.760 --> 0:34:32.080
<v Speaker 1>riding drivel Let me. I want to drive, Just drive, baby,

0:34:33.200 --> 0:34:43.160
<v Speaker 1>good questions trying. This is the Drive to the Globe

0:34:43.640 --> 0:34:48.480
<v Speaker 1>Funk community. Thanks, We'll dry dawn on Bloomberg Radio. It

0:34:48.560 --> 0:34:50.880
<v Speaker 1>is time for the Drive to the close. Delighted to

0:34:51.000 --> 0:34:54.240
<v Speaker 1>have it back with us. Randy Watt's chief investment Strategies

0:34:54.360 --> 0:34:57.799
<v Speaker 1>for O'Neil Global Advisors. Johnny's on the phone from what

0:34:57.840 --> 0:35:01.800
<v Speaker 1>I'm guessing is very steamy Iami. He joins Alex Steel

0:35:01.840 --> 0:35:05.480
<v Speaker 1>and me on this Friday afternoon. All right, Randy, First

0:35:05.480 --> 0:35:08.160
<v Speaker 1>of all, how are you? How are things down in Florida?

0:35:09.520 --> 0:35:12.600
<v Speaker 1>Things in Florida are a little messy. Obviously, the number

0:35:12.640 --> 0:35:15.920
<v Speaker 1>of cases has been rising pretty pretty rapidly, and and

0:35:15.960 --> 0:35:17.719
<v Speaker 1>some of the hospitals are starting to see a real

0:35:18.320 --> 0:35:21.840
<v Speaker 1>increase in the I c U utilization. Hopefully that is

0:35:21.880 --> 0:35:25.799
<v Speaker 1>gonna peek out soon, but obviously it's you know, like

0:35:25.880 --> 0:35:27.719
<v Speaker 1>in many parts of the country, having an impact on

0:35:27.760 --> 0:35:30.799
<v Speaker 1>the local economy. Yeah. I love that you ask people that,

0:35:30.880 --> 0:35:32.880
<v Speaker 1>by the way, on this show, I think that's awesome.

0:35:33.640 --> 0:35:36.360
<v Speaker 1>Side note, you're welcome, um, Randy. When you take a

0:35:36.360 --> 0:35:38.520
<v Speaker 1>look at say, so, it's messy down there, and there's

0:35:38.560 --> 0:35:40.960
<v Speaker 1>some messy things happening in the market. And I did

0:35:40.960 --> 0:35:43.319
<v Speaker 1>want to start with gold because it seems to want

0:35:43.320 --> 0:35:45.319
<v Speaker 1>to break out, but it's been like a melt up

0:35:45.440 --> 0:35:47.080
<v Speaker 1>rather than a breakout in the last kind of a

0:35:47.080 --> 0:35:49.480
<v Speaker 1>few days. What do you see on the charts for this?

0:35:50.520 --> 0:35:53.320
<v Speaker 1>I think, first of all, gold does look good technically.

0:35:53.360 --> 0:35:55.279
<v Speaker 1>We've been positive on it for I think over a

0:35:55.360 --> 0:35:58.080
<v Speaker 1>year now, and I think what it's really reacting to

0:35:58.480 --> 0:36:01.799
<v Speaker 1>is first that money supply in the US is up

0:36:01.920 --> 0:36:06.480
<v Speaker 1>very strongly. It's up about a year to year. That's

0:36:06.520 --> 0:36:10.279
<v Speaker 1>been driven partially by the FED balance sheet expansion. The

0:36:10.320 --> 0:36:13.080
<v Speaker 1>FED balance sheet at the low last September was about

0:36:13.120 --> 0:36:16.600
<v Speaker 1>three point eight trillion it's now risen to close to

0:36:16.719 --> 0:36:19.640
<v Speaker 1>seven trillion, and I think gold is reacting to that.

0:36:19.719 --> 0:36:23.000
<v Speaker 1>I also think it continues to be a historical store

0:36:23.000 --> 0:36:25.479
<v Speaker 1>of value and a defensive play. And I think people

0:36:25.520 --> 0:36:28.840
<v Speaker 1>are very uncertain about both the economy and financial markets,

0:36:29.000 --> 0:36:32.600
<v Speaker 1>and that's a logical place for them to go to. Randy,

0:36:32.640 --> 0:36:34.919
<v Speaker 1>I do want to ask you about this rally that

0:36:35.120 --> 0:36:38.200
<v Speaker 1>you know, this past couple of days, notwithstanding we've been

0:36:38.239 --> 0:36:41.319
<v Speaker 1>seeing and it does seem to be driven by a

0:36:41.400 --> 0:36:45.400
<v Speaker 1>pretty small number of stocks in a pretty narrow set

0:36:45.440 --> 0:36:48.000
<v Speaker 1>of sectors. I mean, we do have these days where

0:36:48.040 --> 0:36:50.759
<v Speaker 1>everything seems to be up, but ultimately if you sort

0:36:50.760 --> 0:36:53.560
<v Speaker 1>of strip out some of those specific names, maybe it's

0:36:53.560 --> 0:36:56.680
<v Speaker 1>not so great. How do you analyze that? So a

0:36:56.719 --> 0:36:59.400
<v Speaker 1>couple of things. The first is that there's two sectors

0:36:59.400 --> 0:37:01.919
<v Speaker 1>that are up double digit year to date. That's Tech

0:37:02.280 --> 0:37:06.600
<v Speaker 1>and consumer discretionary combined. Those are about thirty cent or

0:37:06.600 --> 0:37:09.560
<v Speaker 1>so of the market, so they've really been driving driving

0:37:09.560 --> 0:37:12.920
<v Speaker 1>the tape. The top five stocks of the SMP right

0:37:12.960 --> 0:37:17.920
<v Speaker 1>now are about of the index, and clearly they have

0:37:18.000 --> 0:37:21.000
<v Speaker 1>been driving it. What's been driving that is really they've

0:37:21.000 --> 0:37:24.800
<v Speaker 1>had pretty good earnings and revenue growth and the market

0:37:24.880 --> 0:37:28.920
<v Speaker 1>is gravitated to where growth is. I do think for

0:37:28.960 --> 0:37:31.960
<v Speaker 1>the market to move higher right now, we really need

0:37:32.000 --> 0:37:34.960
<v Speaker 1>to see a broadening into some other sectors and hopefully

0:37:34.960 --> 0:37:38.120
<v Speaker 1>have some of these beaten up sectors like financials, which

0:37:38.120 --> 0:37:42.160
<v Speaker 1>are down year to date, start to do better. So

0:37:42.239 --> 0:37:44.960
<v Speaker 1>I think the technical look for the market is the

0:37:45.000 --> 0:37:47.600
<v Speaker 1>markets likely to kind of stall out or go sideways

0:37:47.640 --> 0:37:50.759
<v Speaker 1>here unless we can see that broadening. And I think

0:37:50.760 --> 0:37:52.440
<v Speaker 1>that broadening has got to be driven by a better

0:37:52.480 --> 0:37:55.919
<v Speaker 1>outlook on the economy. How do you feel about next

0:37:55.960 --> 0:38:01.360
<v Speaker 1>week going into big tech earnings like Facebook, Amazon, Google, Apple?

0:38:01.560 --> 0:38:03.920
<v Speaker 1>I mean, are we set up for disappointment all of

0:38:04.040 --> 0:38:06.680
<v Speaker 1>the Microsoft situation? And I wonder if that sort of

0:38:06.719 --> 0:38:10.920
<v Speaker 1>triggers that reversal into value that you're talking about. I

0:38:10.920 --> 0:38:13.200
<v Speaker 1>think there's there's a few things going on first off

0:38:13.680 --> 0:38:17.960
<v Speaker 1>earning season. So far, about twenty five of the SEPs

0:38:18.040 --> 0:38:23.719
<v Speaker 1>reported of those companies that have reported, have reported positive surprises.

0:38:24.160 --> 0:38:26.920
<v Speaker 1>So I think what's going on with regards to earnings

0:38:27.000 --> 0:38:29.839
<v Speaker 1>is that the bar is very low and a lot

0:38:29.880 --> 0:38:33.000
<v Speaker 1>of companies are kind of stepping over that. Though we

0:38:33.040 --> 0:38:34.920
<v Speaker 1>should note that if you look on a year to

0:38:35.000 --> 0:38:38.000
<v Speaker 1>year basis for the market. Earnings are right now running

0:38:38.000 --> 0:38:41.520
<v Speaker 1>down about and sales are running down about ten and

0:38:41.560 --> 0:38:44.240
<v Speaker 1>a half percent, So the absolute numbers aren't that great.

0:38:44.719 --> 0:38:48.440
<v Speaker 1>What's been troubling the market recently, and you kind of

0:38:48.480 --> 0:38:52.320
<v Speaker 1>saw it with the Microsoft quarter, was that forward guidance

0:38:52.640 --> 0:38:55.879
<v Speaker 1>is actually coming down right now. So if you look

0:38:55.880 --> 0:38:59.120
<v Speaker 1>at where we were for earnings entering earning season and

0:38:59.160 --> 0:39:03.120
<v Speaker 1>where we are now, that forward one number is falling

0:39:03.480 --> 0:39:05.799
<v Speaker 1>right now. It's about a hundred and dollars for the

0:39:05.880 --> 0:39:09.319
<v Speaker 1>SMP five hundred. That's about a twenty five game. The

0:39:09.320 --> 0:39:11.840
<v Speaker 1>market is projecting for next year and earnings, and I

0:39:11.880 --> 0:39:14.359
<v Speaker 1>think that's optimistic, and I think those earnings are gonna

0:39:14.400 --> 0:39:16.520
<v Speaker 1>have to come down. So I think the market is

0:39:16.520 --> 0:39:19.560
<v Speaker 1>focused not on this quarter. Again. I think for big

0:39:19.560 --> 0:39:21.279
<v Speaker 1>tech earnings next quarter, a lot of them are gonna

0:39:21.280 --> 0:39:23.680
<v Speaker 1>be pretty good, but it's really what what do it

0:39:23.680 --> 0:39:25.680
<v Speaker 1>look like for the future, And I think there is

0:39:25.880 --> 0:39:28.000
<v Speaker 1>risk at disappointment because I think those numbers still have

0:39:28.040 --> 0:39:32.439
<v Speaker 1>to come down. Randy in a typical year, I shall

0:39:32.480 --> 0:39:35.600
<v Speaker 1>I say, if twenty where typically you're in any former fashion,

0:39:36.280 --> 0:39:39.360
<v Speaker 1>we would be talking a lot already and certainly a

0:39:39.400 --> 0:39:42.759
<v Speaker 1>lot over the next month or so. Through November. About

0:39:42.760 --> 0:39:46.480
<v Speaker 1>the presidential election. I know you've done some analysis historically

0:39:46.920 --> 0:39:51.040
<v Speaker 1>about this, how much does what we're living through right now?

0:39:51.200 --> 0:39:54.360
<v Speaker 1>If I hear the word unprecedented one more time from

0:39:54.400 --> 0:39:59.160
<v Speaker 1>anyone about anything, I don't know, Like I it's it's

0:39:59.200 --> 0:40:04.200
<v Speaker 1>a little frustrating, even though it's true it will be unprecedented.

0:40:04.239 --> 0:40:08.560
<v Speaker 1>My reaction. Um but what how do you sort of

0:40:08.680 --> 0:40:12.480
<v Speaker 1>think technically about a presidential election in a year that's

0:40:12.480 --> 0:40:15.719
<v Speaker 1>as topsy turvy as this. I like how you made

0:40:15.760 --> 0:40:19.480
<v Speaker 1>that pun there in an election year unprecedented. Um, So

0:40:19.520 --> 0:40:21.880
<v Speaker 1>a couple of things I think. I think the election

0:40:22.160 --> 0:40:24.359
<v Speaker 1>is on investors minds, but I think right now it's

0:40:24.360 --> 0:40:26.560
<v Speaker 1>actually third on the list. So I think the first

0:40:26.560 --> 0:40:29.000
<v Speaker 1>thing investors are concerned about is this this stimulus bill

0:40:29.080 --> 0:40:31.600
<v Speaker 1>going to happen and what's in it? So that's that's

0:40:31.640 --> 0:40:34.560
<v Speaker 1>the most immediate data point. I think the next data

0:40:34.600 --> 0:40:37.480
<v Speaker 1>point is are we amping up again a trade war

0:40:37.560 --> 0:40:40.680
<v Speaker 1>with China? The SMP five gets about ten percent of

0:40:40.680 --> 0:40:43.360
<v Speaker 1>its sales in Asia, the majority of that in China,

0:40:43.719 --> 0:40:45.759
<v Speaker 1>So I think if we're going to amp that up again,

0:40:45.840 --> 0:40:50.480
<v Speaker 1>that's another negative for one earnings. And then finally the election.

0:40:50.800 --> 0:40:52.719
<v Speaker 1>I think investors are going to start to focus on

0:40:52.760 --> 0:40:54.839
<v Speaker 1>the election more, but I think that's a late more

0:40:54.880 --> 0:40:57.359
<v Speaker 1>of a late summer type event. I think these first

0:40:57.440 --> 0:41:01.120
<v Speaker 1>couple of data points initially are going to matter more. Normally,

0:41:01.160 --> 0:41:04.840
<v Speaker 1>what happens is the market technical usually has a stalling

0:41:04.840 --> 0:41:07.880
<v Speaker 1>out period in the summer and then kind of rallies

0:41:08.000 --> 0:41:10.680
<v Speaker 1>after the election. I'm not sure if we're going to

0:41:10.760 --> 0:41:13.840
<v Speaker 1>see that again, but I think given how far the

0:41:13.880 --> 0:41:15.960
<v Speaker 1>market has moved, and given the fact that we are

0:41:16.000 --> 0:41:18.080
<v Speaker 1>in the summer, I would not surprise me to see

0:41:18.080 --> 0:41:21.680
<v Speaker 1>the marketing leader sideways or pull back right here. Interesting.

0:41:21.880 --> 0:41:24.080
<v Speaker 1>All right, great to catch up with you as always,

0:41:24.160 --> 0:41:26.719
<v Speaker 1>Randy Watts. One of our phase Carol will be sad

0:41:26.800 --> 0:41:29.680
<v Speaker 1>she missed you. She sends her records seeing having seen

0:41:29.719 --> 0:41:31.080
<v Speaker 1>you on the rundown, she said to make sure and

0:41:31.120 --> 0:41:34.040
<v Speaker 1>tell you Hello. Chief Investment Strategies for O'Neil Global Advisors,

0:41:34.280 --> 0:41:38.080
<v Speaker 1>Johnny is on the phone from Miami. Thanks so much

0:41:38.120 --> 0:41:41.040
<v Speaker 1>for listening to Bloomberg Business Week. Download the podcast on iTunes,

0:41:41.040 --> 0:41:43.480
<v Speaker 1>South Cloud of Bloomberg dot com, or wherever you get

0:41:43.520 --> 0:41:45.600
<v Speaker 1>your podcasts, And of course you can always listen to

0:41:45.600 --> 0:41:48.239
<v Speaker 1>our radio show at two pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio,

0:41:48.440 --> 0:41:51.360
<v Speaker 1>or watch us on YouTube by searching Bloomberg Global News