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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

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Speaker 2: Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Appocarplay and then

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Speaker 2: Roun Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand

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Speaker 2: wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 3: Keeping us up to date on the news on this

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Speaker 3: Monday that it's flying thick and fast, and of course

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Speaker 3: was flying fast over the weekend, including the shockingly expeditious

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Speaker 3: movement of HTS, a designated terrorist organization by the USES

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Speaker 3: that successfully was able to oust the regime of Basher

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Speaker 3: al Asad in Syria. He of course has now taken

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Speaker 3: refuge in Russia with his family, leaving something of a

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Speaker 3: power vacuum in the Middle East, which is giving some

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Speaker 3: concern to this Biden administration in its final weeks with

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Speaker 3: him in the Oval Office. He actually addressed the fall

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Speaker 3: of Assad from the White House just yesterday a.

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Speaker 4: Long last, this sad regime has fallen. This regime brutalized

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Speaker 4: and tortured and killed literally hundreds of thousands of innice Assyrians.

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Speaker 4: A fall of the regime is a fundamental lack of justice.

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Speaker 4: It's a moment of historic opportunity for the long suffering

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Speaker 4: people Assyria to build a better future for the proud country.

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Speaker 4: It's also a moment of risk and uncertainty as we

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Speaker 4: all turn to the question of what comes next.

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Speaker 5: That's where we start our conversation with Courtney McBride, Bloomberg

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Speaker 5: national security reporter, who had a busy weekend covering all

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Speaker 5: of this, and we're lucky to have at the table

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Speaker 5: with us now. Courtney, it's good to see you as

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Speaker 5: the President talks about both sides of this equation. How's

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Speaker 5: the administration balancing what it sees as an opportunity to

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Speaker 5: use his word, but also a time of height and risk.

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Speaker 6: Well, I mean lots of analysts are warning of the

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Speaker 6: potential risks, and the administration and the incoming Trump administration similarly,

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Speaker 6: I think, are taking something of a wait and see approach.

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Speaker 6: The US forces that are in Syria are very focused

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Speaker 6: on the counter ISIS mission and really staying away from

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Speaker 6: this HTS led assault on Damascus and the downfall of Assad.

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Speaker 3: But as you mentioned Isis, the US wasted no time

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Speaker 3: yesterday and striking targets within central Syria meant it targeting

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Speaker 3: specifically the Islamic state. Should we expect that to continue?

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Speaker 6: I mean, as to the extent that US forces see

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Speaker 6: that there's an opportunity and a need for that. I

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Speaker 6: think we certainly should expect those tries to continue. Some

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Speaker 6: have suggested that they should in fact ramp up the mission,

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Speaker 6: and that that is a potential opportunity for President Trump

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Speaker 6: when he takes office in January. But you know, he

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Speaker 6: and his incoming administration of signal that they do not

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Speaker 6: want to get further entangled in a conflict in the region.

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Speaker 5: Israel was quick to move troops into what they called

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Speaker 5: a buffer zone across the border. You've had a lot

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Speaker 5: of parties with their own interests. Is the US working

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Speaker 5: with Israel on this or does Benjamin Etna, who have

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Speaker 5: his own agenda that doesn't involve the White House.

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Speaker 7: At this time.

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Speaker 6: Well, you know, he keeps his own counsel, I would say,

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Speaker 6: But certainly Israel is working to consolidate potential gains against Iran,

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Speaker 6: which had had backed the Syrian regime and like Russia,

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Speaker 6: has been distracted and perhaps allowed the rebel forces to

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Speaker 6: move as quickly as they did. You know, the US

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Speaker 6: and Israel are obviously close allies. But I think each

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Speaker 6: each country is certainly pursuing its own national security interests,

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Speaker 6: though they may intersect well.

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Speaker 3: In Israel, of course, has been pursuing its interest in

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Speaker 3: its conflict with Hesbela that now is in a temporary

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Speaker 3: for now ceasefire agreement in Lebanon bordering Syria. What are

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Speaker 3: the implications to that ongoing conflict? Knowing Hesbela was being

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Speaker 3: a supportive force for Assad's forces until it was materially

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Speaker 3: weakened by Israel's.

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Speaker 6: So sure, well, I mean Syria has been sort of

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Speaker 6: a ground route for iron to supply hesblah, and so

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Speaker 6: there's there's a lot of concern in Israel, you know,

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Speaker 6: moving quickly, as you said, uh, to try to to

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Speaker 6: capitalize on on this, uh, this vacuum in Syria. But

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Speaker 6: there's there's some concern about what happens with that Lebanon

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Speaker 6: Syria border. Who's going to secure it? Will the Lebanese

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Speaker 6: armed forces do that? ASAD had kept it open to

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Speaker 6: allow for for some of that resupply. So that is

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Speaker 6: one of many areas that are they're going to be

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Speaker 6: a key focus.

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Speaker 5: Russia has an important naval base on the Mediterranean.

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Speaker 6: What happens to it that remains to be seen. I mean, uh,

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Speaker 6: you know, the Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov suggested that negotiations

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Speaker 6: uh you know, may may be ongoing with whoever ends

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Speaker 6: up taking power. That that lone Mediterranean UH base naval

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Speaker 6: base for Russia has been critical and you know they

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Speaker 6: will be keen to keep it. But what uh, you know,

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Speaker 6: the group that takes power, whoever it may be in

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Speaker 6: Syria decides to do is anyone's guess. And they may

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Speaker 6: seek some something from Russia, whether that be you know,

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Speaker 6: the return of Asad for trial or any any other inducements.

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Speaker 3: All right, whoever it may be, we have yet to

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Speaker 3: find out. Bloomberg National Security reporter Courtney McBride, thank you

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Speaker 3: so much for joining us, and we want to get

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Speaker 3: more insight now from someone who knows this region incredibly well.

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Speaker 3: Retired Lieutenant General Ben Hodges is back with us here

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Speaker 3: on Balance of Power on Bloomberg TV and Radio. He's

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Speaker 3: former Commanding General of the US Army in Europe and

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Speaker 3: Supreme Allied Commander Commander, but also a veteran of the

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Speaker 3: wars in Afghanistan in Iraq. General Hodges, thank you so

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Speaker 3: much for coming back. It's great to have you, sir.

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Speaker 3: As we look at this power vacuum that has very

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Speaker 3: suddenly come into the four in Syria. Just how dangerous

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Speaker 3: is it?

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Speaker 8: Well, of course, and Courtney did a great job as always.

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Speaker 8: Just now there's danger, but I see huge opportunity. I mean,

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Speaker 8: the situation we're facing now is a result in part

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Speaker 8: of failed deterrence on our part. We did nothing after

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Speaker 8: the Syrians and the Russians jumped over President Obama's redline

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Speaker 8: ten years ago, and for the last ten years, US

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Speaker 8: strategy has been tolerance of ASAD, hyper focus on ISIS

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Speaker 8: but really not much else, and only providing humanitarian aid

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Speaker 8: to the opposition versus real meaningful help. And then the

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Speaker 8: support that we gave to the YPG, which is a

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Speaker 8: branch of the Terrace Organization PKK, has really damaged our

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Speaker 8: relationship with our strategic NATO ally Turkey. So I think

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Speaker 8: if we look at what America's interests are, contrary to

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Speaker 8: what the incoming president said that we should just stay

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Speaker 8: out and stand by, we have serious interests here. Number one,

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Speaker 8: we do not want Russian or Iranian influence to continue

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Speaker 8: inside Syria. We don't want Syria to be a transit

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Speaker 8: for weapons from Iran to his Boa. We don't want

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Speaker 8: Syria to be a place that can export terrorism. And

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Speaker 8: there are more than three million Syrian refugees, mostly in

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Speaker 8: Turkey but also in other countries in Europe that want

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Speaker 8: to come home and need to come home, and we

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Speaker 8: want to facilitate that. And then finally, of course Syria

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Speaker 8: being a peaceful neighbor with Israel, so we have to

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Speaker 8: be involved. And now seems to me the right time

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Speaker 8: to start moving in the direction towards those enterests.

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Speaker 5: Well, the post mortem here is pretty remarkable general when

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Speaker 5: it comes to strategic errors, the mistakes that Vladimir Putin

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Speaker 5: made specifically that led to this, the oversights, the errors

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Speaker 5: arguably strategically that Iran made that brought us to this point.

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Speaker 5: President Biden spoke about this just a bit when he

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Speaker 5: was addressing the nation yesterday as an expert in military strategy,

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Speaker 5: speak of the losses that Vladimir Putin brought to his

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Speaker 5: own front step.

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Speaker 8: Well, you know, the Russians are actually in big trouble

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Speaker 8: in a lot of places right now, and this is

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Speaker 8: again opportunity where if we're thinking in a proactive strategic way,

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Speaker 8: we could damage Russia so badly right now that it

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Speaker 8: could help improve security in the Transatlantic area as well

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Speaker 8: as the Middle East for decades to come. Russia is overextended.

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Speaker 8: You know, they've had this navy base in tartoose now

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Speaker 8: I think for something like fifty years, that's been their

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Speaker 8: foothold in the Mediterranean. But then they go and they

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Speaker 8: go to war against Ukraine, which was unprovoked, unnecessary, but

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Speaker 8: they did that, and they have taken such a beating

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Speaker 8: in inside Ukraine that they found themselves overstretched. They literally

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Speaker 8: did not have anything meaningful that they could use that

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Speaker 8: could help aside. And now it looks like possibly in

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Speaker 8: it's correct, We don't know for sure, but it seems

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Speaker 8: very possible that they will lose their navy foothold in

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Speaker 8: Tartus and the air base that's near Latakia. That would

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Speaker 8: really be a blow when they when they don't have

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Speaker 8: these kind of bases anymore, they become much less of

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Speaker 8: a player in the eastern Mediterranean.

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Speaker 3: So general, you don't see any opportunity here or to

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Speaker 3: your point, on their limited resources in the fact that

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Speaker 3: Russia finds itself overstretched for them to try to reinstall

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Speaker 3: a sod or protect him in a more material way

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Speaker 3: than just offering him safe harbor for the time being.

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Speaker 8: Well, you know, when the Russians, they don't care about

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Speaker 8: international law, they don't care about how many innocent people

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Speaker 8: get killed. So I would be reluctant to say that

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Speaker 8: they'll never try anything. But I mean that would they

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Speaker 8: would really have to show up with a lot of

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Speaker 8: force to reinstall Asad back into power anything anywhere other

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Speaker 8: than perhaps if there ends up being some sort of

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Speaker 8: an Alley white statelet on the coast. You know, perhaps

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Speaker 8: they could stick him back in there. But I don't

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Speaker 8: know that. The uh, the various forces that have overthrown

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Speaker 8: the Assad regime, if they can ever organize themselves, and

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Speaker 8: of course there's so many different factions, it's not like

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Speaker 8: one big homogeneous movement. But if they could organize themselves,

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Speaker 8: they could probably prevent that from happening. And again, this

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Speaker 8: is why the United States needs to be proactive. Now

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Speaker 8: is the chance to get rid of Russian and Iranian

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Speaker 8: influence in this region.

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Speaker 5: Well, with that said, general, how does this inform Vladimir

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Speaker 5: Putin's hand at the negotiating table in Ukraine?

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Speaker 7: Presuming he'll be at once soon?

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Speaker 5: We saw images over the weekend with Donald Trump, Emmanuel Macron,

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Speaker 5: and President Zelenski meeting together in Paris, and we know

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Speaker 5: that the incoming president has hopes of drawing this to

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Speaker 5: a close. But after what we just saw take place

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Speaker 5: in Syria, does this actually weaken Putin's hand in Ukraine?

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Speaker 8: Yes, it does a great point. I think that the

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Speaker 8: most important thing is not drawing the war to a close.

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Speaker 8: The most important thing is protecting our strategic interests and

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Speaker 8: defending those things that we say are so important to

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Speaker 8: us around the world. Sovereignty, respect for international law, freedom

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Speaker 8: and navigation, and respect for human rights. These are the

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Speaker 8: things that matter to us in the Indo Pacific. And

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Speaker 8: so the Chinese are watching to see if the United States,

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Speaker 8: if we don't have the political will to help Ukraine

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Speaker 8: defeat Russia. After eleven years of war, with Russia having

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Speaker 8: every advantage, they still only control eighteen percent of Ukraine

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Speaker 8: and they've lost seven hundred thousand killed and wounded soldiers,

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Speaker 8: their defense industries in tatters. And that's without US actually

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Speaker 8: really even trying to help Ukraine win. So instead of

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Speaker 8: starting off negotiations with Ukraine, will have to lose territory

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Speaker 8: Ukraine will have to accept not joining NATO. Why are

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Speaker 8: we flipping that around and look at the trouble that

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Speaker 8: the Kremlin is in. They've lost Syria, their puppet in

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Speaker 8: Tubilisi and Georgia. The Georgia Dream Party is under enormous

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Speaker 8: pressure from Georgian people who want nothing to do with

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Speaker 8: this return to Russian domination. The election in Romania has

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Speaker 8: been thrown out by the Romanian Supreme Court because they

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Speaker 8: saw such enormous Russian interference in the election. So I

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Speaker 8: think the incoming president, if he really is this master

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Speaker 8: deal maker, he has all the leverage in his advantage.

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Speaker 3: Well, and it's not just about President Trump, but also

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Speaker 3: those he surrounds himself with and his next administration, Sir,

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Speaker 3: including his nominee for Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth. There's

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Speaker 3: still a question as to whether or not he will

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Speaker 3: be confirmed. But with this number of hot conflicts ongoing

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Speaker 3: in the world, do you see him as equipped and

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Speaker 3: qualified to lead the DoD.

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Speaker 8: Well, of course not. Look just keep in mind that

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Speaker 8: what's happening in the Middle East right now is only

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Speaker 8: one of several huge strategic problems that the United States

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Speaker 8: and allies face we have China that we've already talked about.

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Speaker 8: We have Ukraine, Russia, and Europe that we're talking about,

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Speaker 8: and we're not even talking about Africa or South America.

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Speaker 8: So you need a Secretary of Defense. And by the way,

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Speaker 8: you also need a Director of National Intelligence that has

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Speaker 8: the experience, the trust of allies and partners, the ability

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Speaker 8: to muster all of our capabilities to properly analyze and

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Speaker 8: deal with each of these scenarios. And I can't believe

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Speaker 8: that the Senate will forfeit its constitutional role and rubber

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Speaker 8: stamp these nominations. I can't believe that they think this

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Speaker 8: is the best the Republican Party can do to fill

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Speaker 8: these two critical agencies or departments. And you know, when

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Speaker 8: the nominee for Secretary Defense has kill all Muslims, that's

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Speaker 8: going to be a problem when he's dealing with our

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Speaker 8: Turkish allies or trying to work with our allies and

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Speaker 8: partners in the Middle East. And like to mention that

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Speaker 8: there are tens of thousands of Muslim soldiers in the

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Speaker 8: United States military. And of course his problem with women

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Speaker 8: servery young combat is also a real problem for me.

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Speaker 8: I mean, my god, we have thousands of women that

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Speaker 8: perform important combat duties aircraft, infantry, submarines. This is not

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Speaker 8: the Second World War where you had a frontline in

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Speaker 8: the rare area. The whole place is combat, and so

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Speaker 8: he is not demonstrated to be the depth of understanding

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Speaker 8: of them.

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Speaker 5: Not mincing words today, General, it's good to see you.

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Speaker 5: Lieutenant General Ben Hodges, former Commanding General US Army Europe,

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Speaker 5: with us in the clutch today on the fastest show

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Speaker 5: in politics. We'll assemble our panel next. I'm Joe Matthew

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Speaker 5: alongside Kaylee Lines on Bloomberg.

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Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens

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Speaker 2: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apple CarPlay in

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Speaker 2: nroyd Oro with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also

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Speaker 2: listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York

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Speaker 2: station Just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 5: Thanks for being with us.

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Speaker 7: It's the Monday edition. Hope you had a good weekend.

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Speaker 5: We're back to it here for the last two weeks

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Speaker 5: of the Lame Duck. We've got work to do in

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Speaker 5: DC and that inccludes the transition, of course, which is

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Speaker 5: happening before our eyes once again, the early started for lawmakers. Huh,

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Speaker 5: there's usually not even in town on a Monday morning,

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Speaker 5: meeting with Senators Tulci Gabbard, fresh off an army training

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Speaker 5: assignment in Oklahoma, were told meeting today with Senators Lindsey Graham,

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Speaker 5: Mike Rounds, James Langford. Now remember this is D and I,

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Speaker 5: so she's before Senate Intelligence Committee. Adam Kinsinger tweets the

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Speaker 5: former congressman following the fall of Damascus and ahead of

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Speaker 5: Tulci Gabbard's reception on Capitol Hill. Quote, wonder if Gabbard

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Speaker 5: will offer a sod safe harbor at her house?

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Speaker 7: Unquote.

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Speaker 5: Everybody's a comedian, John Bolton, talking to Politico, Gabbard has

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Speaker 5: shown an inclination to believe the most outrageous propaganda against

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Speaker 5: the US by some of its strongest enemies unquote. This

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Speaker 5: ought to go well. Let's assemble our political panel now,

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Speaker 5: remembering that Cash Bettel, Donald Trump's pick for FBI is

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Speaker 5: also on Capitol Hill today. But maybe none of this matters,

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Speaker 5: but so bogged down with Pete Hegseeth and Matt Gates.

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Speaker 5: Let's see how Rick and Jeanie are feeling. Bloomberg Politics

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Speaker 5: contributors Genie Shanzanos, Senior Democracy Fellow with the Center for

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Speaker 5: the Study of the Presidency in Congress. Rick Davis, Partner

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Speaker 5: at Stone Court Capital. Great to see you both here, Rick,

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Speaker 5: The timing on the serious story with regard to Tulci

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Speaker 5: Gabbard is quite remarkable. Will it hurt her chances.

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Speaker 9: To be the next d and I, Well, it's hard

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Speaker 9: to say, because it was always I think a little

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Speaker 9: bit of a challenge considering her track record. But the

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Speaker 9: bottom line is it certainly bubbles it up to the

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Speaker 9: very top of the list of questions she's going to

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Speaker 9: get from these members of the Senate. They are all

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Speaker 9: going to be curious to know what she said and

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Speaker 9: why she met with Bashar Alisade when she was there.

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Speaker 9: So yeah, I think it's it's hard to say whether

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Speaker 9: it's harder, it may actually be better because she'll have

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Speaker 9: a chance to be able to address it in the

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Speaker 9: current situation, you know, with the changes in Syria, obviously

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Speaker 9: having the potential to benefit the United States.

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Speaker 7: Interesting to hear from Gabbert's team today.

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Speaker 5: Already, Genie, she already holds a top security clearance and

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Speaker 5: was promoted to lieutenant colonel in the Army Reserve in

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Speaker 5: twenty twenty one. Her visit with Bishar Alasade was in

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Speaker 5: twenty seventeen. Does that essentially put her in the clear.

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Speaker 1: It doesn't put her completely in the clear, but those

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Speaker 1: are very important points. You know. We also should add

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Speaker 1: to that Tulci Gabbert, unlike somebody like Matt Gates, she

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Speaker 1: has a lot of allies in the Senate, and as

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Speaker 1: a former Democrat, she even has allies on the Democratic side,

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Speaker 1: So she's in a different position for that reason, For

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Speaker 1: the reason that she's gotten this clearance, that she's been

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Speaker 1: promoted by the military, I don't think that's going to

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Speaker 1: put off the tough questions if she gets to a

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Speaker 1: confirmation hearing. But I think Tulsia Gabbert should not be

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Speaker 1: underestimated in this. And I get a little bit concerned,

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Speaker 1: and I too read the Adam Kinsinger tweet with the

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Speaker 1: mocking of Tulsi Gabbard that has gone on, because I

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Speaker 1: think she can answer some of these questions, and I

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Speaker 1: think her views in some of these areas are very

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Speaker 1: much in line with the President and with the MAGA crowd,

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Speaker 1: and so I think that could hold her in fairly

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Speaker 1: good stead as she moves into a hearing if she.

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Speaker 5: Gets that far, Rick, I want to bring everyone back

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Speaker 5: to a conversation that we were having last week in

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Speaker 5: which you invoked a term blue Maga. The fact that

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Speaker 5: you've got former Democrats here like Tulci Gabbard, like RFK Junior,

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Speaker 5: who bring a different wrinkle to the Trump fold here

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Speaker 5: and might in fact make them more valuable and more

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Speaker 5: worth fighting for. How does that inform your view of

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Speaker 5: Tulci Gabbert's confirmation.

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Speaker 9: Yeah, there's no question that they rank a higher priority

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Speaker 9: politically in the Trump Maga organization than others who would

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Speaker 9: be more I hate to say the term run of

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Speaker 9: the mill Republicans, but it's it's pretty clear that what

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Speaker 9: got Donald Trump over the top, especially with the popular

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Speaker 9: vote this time around, were Democrats, working class Democrats, white, black,

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Speaker 9: Hispanic Asian coming over to the Republican Canons fold. And

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Speaker 9: part of the articulation of why they should do it,

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Speaker 9: the permission structure was created by people like Tulsa Gabbert

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Speaker 9: and RFK, and so in the sense that you want

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Speaker 9: to maintain your grip on those voters, you don't want

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Speaker 9: them to be one and done with the Maga movement.

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Speaker 9: Then you better do what you can to ensure that

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Speaker 9: they're representative in your administration and that you fight for

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Speaker 9: them if it becomes time to do so on Capitol Hill.

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Speaker 9: And so yes, I do think there's an elevated value

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Speaker 9: to these two nominations over virtually anybody else.

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Speaker 7: On his slight.

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Speaker 5: It was also late Friday that we learned Joni Ernst

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Speaker 5: said she would meet again this week with Pete heg Seth.

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Speaker 5: I'm just going to throw his name back in here

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Speaker 5: for a moment, Jeanie, because I suspect that we'll be

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Speaker 5: seeing a lot of attention paid toward that meeting. Joni Ernst,

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Speaker 5: I guess, is going to be the decision maker here

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Speaker 5: when it comes to heg Seth. If she is comfortable

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Speaker 5: with him following their next meeting, will he be confirmed?

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Speaker 1: He very well could be. You know, she did throw

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Speaker 1: him a lifeline. We talked about that late last week

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Speaker 1: when she did it. She'll meet with him again. I

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Speaker 1: think one of the things, well two things that he's

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Speaker 1: benefiting from. Number one is he has gone on the offensive,

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Speaker 1: and I do think we see Tulci Gabbard taking a

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Speaker 1: page out of his playbook this week to try to

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Speaker 1: do the same. The other thing is that there has

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Speaker 1: been a concerted effort by the Trump incoming administration to

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Speaker 1: pressure some of these senators like Joni Ernst to keep

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Speaker 1: the door open and specific quickly if you look at

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Speaker 1: some of what has been going on in her home state,

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Speaker 1: where we are seeing people who are from the MAGA

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Speaker 1: group who are writing columns clearly telling Joni Ernst that

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Speaker 1: we are watching you and we don't want the deep

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Speaker 1: state killing these nominations before they get a fair hearing.

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Speaker 1: And I think Joni Ernst, up for reelection, as we know,

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Speaker 1: is going to take that seriously. So I think that

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Speaker 1: pressure campaign is going on behind the scenes. We didn't

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Speaker 1: hear it from Donald Trump's own lips this weekend. He

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Speaker 1: was very much on Meet the Press, supportive but not pushing.

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Speaker 1: But the pushing is coming from the base, and that

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Speaker 1: I think is going to be helpful to somebody like

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Speaker 1: Pete Hegsett. Although that said, he's got a long way

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Speaker 1: to go, including the FBI background.

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Speaker 7: Check, that's all true. He's got a long way to go.

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Speaker 5: And you know, Ronda Santis is still going to the

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Speaker 5: football game this weekend, But there is a question Rick

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Speaker 5: about whether all of these nominees will in fact see hearings,

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Speaker 5: whether they'll get to votes, as opposed to the Matt

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Speaker 5: Gates scenario where things flame out, you withdraw or you're

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Speaker 5: kind of shown the door. Here Heg Seth, Gabbards, Patel,

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Speaker 5: they're all going to get in the hearing room, right.

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Speaker 9: Well, we'll see. Typically the process is that the research

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Speaker 9: is done and distributed to the members and the chairman

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Speaker 9: of the committee, and they make a decision as to

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Speaker 9: how they would like to proceed going forward. So this

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Speaker 9: is just the preliminaries right where the members get to

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Speaker 9: meet the candidate for these jobs and they get to

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Speaker 9: develop a personal relationship. In many cases will have not

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Speaker 9: actually been in the room together. So I wouldn't extend

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Speaker 9: it too far because, like with the situation we're seeing

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Speaker 9: evolve with Pete Hegseith, if there's more information coming through

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Speaker 9: these background checks and that kind of thing, then yeah,

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Speaker 9: maybe they don't get a committee hearing, or that the

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Speaker 9: hearing is stalled out until there's some kind of clearing

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Speaker 9: up of what some of the these issues are. So

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Speaker 9: the senators will use their prerogative to get the information

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Speaker 9: they want and then make a judgment based on that.

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Speaker 5: There's the panel on the transition now to the matter

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Speaker 5: at hand in the Lame Duck. We did get a

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Speaker 5: top line number on an NDAA over the weekend. It

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Speaker 5: appears we're still nowhere land at least formally speaking here

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Speaker 5: publicly speaking on a stopgap funding bill. Here Genie, it

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Speaker 5: looks like we're not going to shut down. They're talking

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Speaker 5: about likely beginning middle of March. Can they get it

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Speaker 5: done in time? And are they actually withholding this number

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Speaker 5: to get closer to the deadline so they can get

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Speaker 5: a quick vote.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, they like to tease you, Joe, walk right up

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Speaker 1: to the edge, you know, make you question your Christmas

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Speaker 1: and then they will get it done. So I do

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Speaker 1: think they're going to get it done on both the ENDIA,

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Speaker 1: which they always get done, and then the at least

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Speaker 1: a cr for the budget. I do think we see

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Speaker 1: both of those, you know. I think a big t

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Speaker 1: today is going to be as the NDAA goes to

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Speaker 1: the Rules Committee for the GOP. Can they do it

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Speaker 1: or are the hardliners going to hold them up? And

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Speaker 1: then do they have to go on suspension and require

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Speaker 1: support from Democrats? You know, sort of an old story

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Speaker 1: for the one hundred and eighteenth. But I think that's

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Speaker 1: what we're watching right now, a story.

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Speaker 7: You know, mid march mid march for a deadline.

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Speaker 5: Here, we think rick because once we get a top

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Speaker 5: line and at least a sense of timing here, we

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Speaker 5: can actually get onto voting.

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Speaker 9: Yeah, it's pretty clear they're going to jam this thing

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Speaker 9: through at the last minute. They don't want a lot

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00:25:35,920 --> 00:25:42,040
Speaker 9: of debate. This was not a muscular group of House members,

435
00:25:42,119 --> 00:25:44,880
Speaker 9: especially nor the Senate, who wanted to get a lot

436
00:25:44,880 --> 00:25:48,520
Speaker 9: of things done during the lame duck. So that's why

437
00:25:48,600 --> 00:25:50,480
Speaker 9: I think you're going to see a little bit of

438
00:25:50,480 --> 00:25:55,120
Speaker 9: foot dragging around distributing the information that needed. Senate got

439
00:25:55,119 --> 00:25:57,159
Speaker 9: the number they wanted out of the NDAA, so that

440
00:25:57,200 --> 00:25:57,720
Speaker 9: can now.

441
00:25:57,680 --> 00:25:58,880
Speaker 7: Green light move forward.

442
00:25:59,680 --> 00:26:04,280
Speaker 9: But I don't think the House leadership wants any ranker

443
00:26:04,720 --> 00:26:08,560
Speaker 9: associated with this budget, and so they'll stick an end

444
00:26:08,640 --> 00:26:10,960
Speaker 9: date on it, and they'll put a top line number

445
00:26:10,960 --> 00:26:12,520
Speaker 9: on it and jam it through at the last minute.

446
00:26:12,560 --> 00:26:13,919
Speaker 9: I don't think you're going to see a debate on

447
00:26:13,960 --> 00:26:15,520
Speaker 9: this at all.

448
00:26:15,760 --> 00:26:20,399
Speaker 5: The NDAA must pass typically not very controversial genie, but

449
00:26:20,480 --> 00:26:23,520
Speaker 5: in this case, there's language in the bill restricting some

450
00:26:23,760 --> 00:26:30,520
Speaker 5: options for transgender youth, which I read is potentially making

451
00:26:30,520 --> 00:26:34,280
Speaker 5: it difficult for some Democrats. Is this a real story,

452
00:26:34,320 --> 00:26:35,960
Speaker 5: could it hold up passage of the bill? Or is

453
00:26:36,000 --> 00:26:37,520
Speaker 5: this something to talk about in the meantime.

454
00:26:38,840 --> 00:26:40,600
Speaker 1: You know, I think think it's something to talk about.

455
00:26:40,640 --> 00:26:43,120
Speaker 1: I think both sides realize this has to get done.

456
00:26:43,160 --> 00:26:47,280
Speaker 1: But this is what happens when a Congress can only

457
00:26:47,480 --> 00:26:49,800
Speaker 1: or the congressmen and women can only count on one

458
00:26:49,840 --> 00:26:53,040
Speaker 1: bill passing. It's sort of that Christmas tree. Everything gets

459
00:26:53,040 --> 00:26:54,760
Speaker 1: put in it and that can then in the end

460
00:26:54,800 --> 00:26:57,680
Speaker 1: hold up that bill. I do think this will get addressed,

461
00:26:57,920 --> 00:27:00,520
Speaker 1: but it is unfortunate because as I'm just listening to

462
00:27:00,640 --> 00:27:03,280
Speaker 1: you and Rick, you know what happened to the one

463
00:27:03,359 --> 00:27:07,080
Speaker 1: hunderd and eighteenth commitment to regular order? If you know,

464
00:27:07,200 --> 00:27:09,560
Speaker 1: we don't have debate on the budget resolution, They just

465
00:27:09,600 --> 00:27:12,240
Speaker 1: push it through the NDAA. You know, people are trying

466
00:27:12,240 --> 00:27:14,680
Speaker 1: to put these little ornaments on it. You know, we've

467
00:27:14,720 --> 00:27:16,920
Speaker 1: got to get to a point of regular order at

468
00:27:17,000 --> 00:27:20,040
Speaker 1: some point, hopefully in the next Congress. Although I'm not

469
00:27:20,080 --> 00:27:22,160
Speaker 1: holding my breath, you're just.

470
00:27:22,119 --> 00:27:23,200
Speaker 7: Trying to make Rick smile.

471
00:27:23,280 --> 00:27:26,320
Speaker 5: I know, I know your strategy here, Jeanie Shanzino and

472
00:27:26,400 --> 00:27:30,320
Speaker 5: Rick Davis. Yes, regular order something maybe we'll get to

473
00:27:30,400 --> 00:27:31,320
Speaker 5: in the next Congress.

474
00:27:34,960 --> 00:27:38,520
Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

475
00:27:38,560 --> 00:27:41,480
Speaker 2: Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Emo CarPlay and

476
00:27:41,480 --> 00:27:44,199
Speaker 2: then Roun Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on

477
00:27:44,280 --> 00:27:47,480
Speaker 2: demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live

478
00:27:47,600 --> 00:27:51,480
Speaker 2: on youtubell.

479
00:27:51,520 --> 00:27:54,240
Speaker 5: One of the biggest stories right now in politics is,

480
00:27:54,280 --> 00:27:57,840
Speaker 5: of course, what's happening in Syria. People to keep asking

481
00:27:57,840 --> 00:28:00,239
Speaker 5: where's Joe Biden. We haven't seen so much of him

482
00:28:00,280 --> 00:28:03,119
Speaker 5: since the election. He did address the nation about this

483
00:28:03,160 --> 00:28:06,040
Speaker 5: whole issue yesterday, remembering we talked about this each day

484
00:28:06,119 --> 00:28:09,640
Speaker 5: last week. It started on Monday after a wild advance

485
00:28:09,760 --> 00:28:11,720
Speaker 5: a weekend ago, a week.

486
00:28:11,560 --> 00:28:13,840
Speaker 7: And a weekend ago from this group hts.

487
00:28:13,880 --> 00:28:16,000
Speaker 5: They were moving ever closer to Damascus, and we heard

488
00:28:16,000 --> 00:28:18,880
Speaker 5: a lot of experts question whether Vladimir Putin would allow

489
00:28:18,960 --> 00:28:22,280
Speaker 5: them to get there. Damascus, of course, fell over the weekend,

490
00:28:22,280 --> 00:28:24,359
Speaker 5: butshar All a sad back out of the country. He

491
00:28:24,400 --> 00:28:28,080
Speaker 5: has moved into Moscow full time, and there are big

492
00:28:28,160 --> 00:28:30,960
Speaker 5: questions about what happens to the power vacuum in Sirius,

493
00:28:30,960 --> 00:28:33,720
Speaker 5: something that President Biden spoke about yesterday.

494
00:28:33,720 --> 00:28:38,640
Speaker 4: Listen, a long last, the sod regime has fallen. This

495
00:28:38,760 --> 00:28:43,920
Speaker 4: regime brutalized and tortured and killed literally hundreds of thousands

496
00:28:43,920 --> 00:28:46,920
Speaker 4: of venice Assyrians. A fall of the regime is a

497
00:28:46,960 --> 00:28:51,320
Speaker 4: fundamental lack of justice. It's a moment of historic opportunity

498
00:28:51,920 --> 00:28:54,920
Speaker 4: the long suffering people of Syria to build a better

499
00:28:54,920 --> 00:28:58,160
Speaker 4: future for the proud country. It's also a moment of

500
00:28:58,240 --> 00:29:02,000
Speaker 4: risk and uncertainty as we all turn to the question

501
00:29:02,040 --> 00:29:03,520
Speaker 4: of what comes next.

502
00:29:04,800 --> 00:29:07,680
Speaker 5: That is why, of course, the President announced that US

503
00:29:07,720 --> 00:29:12,400
Speaker 5: forces had hit Islamic state camps and operatives in Syria.

504
00:29:12,480 --> 00:29:14,760
Speaker 7: We had a lot of material in the.

505
00:29:14,680 --> 00:29:19,280
Speaker 5: Air over the weekend, seventy five targets using B fifty

506
00:29:19,280 --> 00:29:22,960
Speaker 5: two's F fifteen's A ten warplanes. The United States was

507
00:29:23,000 --> 00:29:26,320
Speaker 5: busy as we consider the next steps there. Michael Allen

508
00:29:26,560 --> 00:29:29,800
Speaker 5: is with us in studio, Managing director Beacon Global Strategies

509
00:29:29,800 --> 00:29:32,400
Speaker 5: and of course an authority on the region, former Special

510
00:29:32,480 --> 00:29:35,760
Speaker 5: assistant to President George W. Bush in the national security sector.

511
00:29:35,760 --> 00:29:36,440
Speaker 5: It's great to see you.

512
00:29:36,440 --> 00:29:37,480
Speaker 7: Welcome back. Thanks for having me.

513
00:29:38,040 --> 00:29:41,000
Speaker 5: You saw this coming once this group started rolling. I

514
00:29:41,120 --> 00:29:42,719
Speaker 5: just want to back up a little bit though. When

515
00:29:42,760 --> 00:29:45,680
Speaker 5: we talk about this group HTS, this is a former

516
00:29:47,520 --> 00:29:50,520
Speaker 5: portion of al Qaeda, former syndicate of al Qaeda. Should

517
00:29:50,520 --> 00:29:52,080
Speaker 5: we think of them as terrorists or not?

518
00:29:52,560 --> 00:29:56,680
Speaker 10: So I think we should until we can disprove it otherwise,

519
00:29:56,880 --> 00:30:01,840
Speaker 10: because since the Syrian Civil War started, let's say, twenty

520
00:30:01,840 --> 00:30:05,800
Speaker 10: twelve twenty thirteen, we noticed how many al Qaeda and

521
00:30:05,920 --> 00:30:11,960
Speaker 10: ISIS affiliated groups were growing in the ungoverned spaces of Syria. HTS,

522
00:30:12,000 --> 00:30:15,160
Speaker 10: which of course is a successor to al Qaeda and

523
00:30:15,200 --> 00:30:18,239
Speaker 10: al Nusra. They're somebody we need to worry about, and

524
00:30:18,280 --> 00:30:20,520
Speaker 10: so we should assume they do not have our best

525
00:30:20,560 --> 00:30:24,440
Speaker 10: interests at heart until we can see otherwise. They're trying

526
00:30:24,440 --> 00:30:27,400
Speaker 10: to rebrand themselves, if you will, right now by saying

527
00:30:27,480 --> 00:30:30,320
Speaker 10: that they want to work with the different factions in

528
00:30:30,360 --> 00:30:32,840
Speaker 10: the country. But I'm kind of skeptical, Okay.

529
00:30:34,080 --> 00:30:38,200
Speaker 5: The conventional wisdom is and has been that a weakened

530
00:30:38,240 --> 00:30:42,960
Speaker 5: Putin over extended in Ukraine and a weakened Iran arguably

531
00:30:43,000 --> 00:30:47,400
Speaker 5: overextended in Israel is the reason why this happened. Suggesting

532
00:30:47,640 --> 00:30:51,080
Speaker 5: Bashar al Asad had nothing on his own, a house

533
00:30:51,080 --> 00:30:53,400
Speaker 5: of cards that fell without his two big brothers is

534
00:30:53,400 --> 00:30:53,800
Speaker 5: that fair.

535
00:30:54,080 --> 00:30:56,600
Speaker 10: I think it is fair. I think Iran is back

536
00:30:56,640 --> 00:31:00,440
Speaker 10: on its heels. You know, their entire prestige in influence

537
00:31:00,480 --> 00:31:03,000
Speaker 10: and clout in the region is related to their ability

538
00:31:03,040 --> 00:31:06,760
Speaker 10: to project power. It was all about their so called

539
00:31:06,800 --> 00:31:10,600
Speaker 10: proxy terrorist networks. We talked so much about Hamas, the

540
00:31:10,720 --> 00:31:14,240
Speaker 10: Huthi and of course the collapse of Hesbela. When Hesbela

541
00:31:14,280 --> 00:31:18,880
Speaker 10: really started going down, I think the repercussions were born

542
00:31:19,120 --> 00:31:22,280
Speaker 10: into Syria and they realized they had a chance that

543
00:31:22,360 --> 00:31:26,080
Speaker 10: the regime was as brittle as we expected it might become.

544
00:31:26,400 --> 00:31:28,440
Speaker 10: So they were able to push on the front door

545
00:31:28,440 --> 00:31:30,520
Speaker 10: and the whole house collapsed. So I think there's a

546
00:31:30,560 --> 00:31:34,320
Speaker 10: lot too the Iranian backing of the regime that began

547
00:31:34,400 --> 00:31:38,560
Speaker 10: to evaporate as they did worse and worse after October seventh.

548
00:31:38,640 --> 00:31:42,440
Speaker 5: Immediate concerns as you view the landscape here sort of

549
00:31:42,520 --> 00:31:45,520
Speaker 5: catalog the threats, the fact that there are chemical weapons

550
00:31:46,240 --> 00:31:48,080
Speaker 5: that need to be secured in the country. Is that

551
00:31:48,080 --> 00:31:50,320
Speaker 5: the most important thing to deal with now? I think

552
00:31:50,440 --> 00:31:53,160
Speaker 5: it is definitely the chemical weapons. This goes back to

553
00:31:53,200 --> 00:31:56,240
Speaker 5: George W. Bush in office. When you look at these

554
00:31:56,360 --> 00:31:59,720
Speaker 5: international terrorists, of course they would have no compunction about

555
00:31:59,840 --> 00:32:03,080
Speaker 5: using WMD. That's why the Israelis over the weekend were

556
00:32:03,080 --> 00:32:06,520
Speaker 5: trying to hit some of the chemical weapons plants. That's

557
00:32:06,520 --> 00:32:09,000
Speaker 5: why the United States, by the way, tried to degrade

558
00:32:09,080 --> 00:32:10,280
Speaker 5: Isis over the weekend.

559
00:32:10,320 --> 00:32:11,480
Speaker 7: As you just said in your.

560
00:32:11,360 --> 00:32:14,000
Speaker 10: Intro, So there is a lot going on, and the

561
00:32:14,040 --> 00:32:17,320
Speaker 10: Israelis have secured a buffer zone and they're also bombing

562
00:32:17,760 --> 00:32:20,480
Speaker 10: Hesibla forces as they retreat back to Lebanon. So we

563
00:32:20,560 --> 00:32:22,600
Speaker 10: have a lot of interest in what's going on now.

564
00:32:22,640 --> 00:32:23,080
Speaker 7: I know our.

565
00:32:23,000 --> 00:32:25,960
Speaker 10: Intelligence community is watching it very closely, and I would

566
00:32:25,960 --> 00:32:28,160
Speaker 10: expect more kinetic action in the weeks to come.

567
00:32:28,280 --> 00:32:31,680
Speaker 5: Why this buffer zone is Israel? Can we presume working

568
00:32:31,680 --> 00:32:32,600
Speaker 5: with the US on them?

569
00:32:32,920 --> 00:32:34,880
Speaker 10: I think they've let us know what they're doing, but

570
00:32:35,000 --> 00:32:37,600
Speaker 10: I don't think they got permission. I believe that when

571
00:32:37,640 --> 00:32:40,560
Speaker 10: they look at the geography and the goal on Heights

572
00:32:40,600 --> 00:32:44,360
Speaker 10: and the other elevated areas beyond that, they said the

573
00:32:44,440 --> 00:32:46,680
Speaker 10: better part of prudence is for us to get there.

574
00:32:47,200 --> 00:32:49,920
Speaker 10: Net Yahoo for him, was kind of conciliatory about it

575
00:32:49,920 --> 00:32:52,800
Speaker 10: this weekend. He said it's temporary and we'll work with

576
00:32:52,840 --> 00:32:56,040
Speaker 10: you in the future, but he was justifying being there

577
00:32:56,160 --> 00:32:58,280
Speaker 10: as in Israel's interests.

578
00:32:57,960 --> 00:33:00,680
Speaker 5: But this is a don't ask permission kind of Absolutely,

579
00:33:01,680 --> 00:33:05,360
Speaker 5: Russia has a naval base, a very important naval base

580
00:33:05,600 --> 00:33:06,600
Speaker 5: on the Mediterranean.

581
00:33:07,080 --> 00:33:09,440
Speaker 7: Will they lose it? It looks like it. You know,

582
00:33:09,520 --> 00:33:11,600
Speaker 7: we've seen all massive loss.

583
00:33:11,360 --> 00:33:14,480
Speaker 10: It's a massive loss for them. During the Obama years,

584
00:33:14,480 --> 00:33:17,560
Speaker 10: when Russia introduced itself into the region, they went straight

585
00:33:17,600 --> 00:33:20,080
Speaker 10: for this naval base at Tartuse. A lot of US

586
00:33:20,160 --> 00:33:23,920
Speaker 10: lamented that now Russia could extend its influence into the

587
00:33:23,920 --> 00:33:27,040
Speaker 10: Middle East. But I think they're weaker, not just because

588
00:33:27,080 --> 00:33:30,360
Speaker 10: of Ukraine, but they realized that they don't have as

589
00:33:30,400 --> 00:33:33,120
Speaker 10: solid of interests in Syria. With a sod on his

590
00:33:33,200 --> 00:33:36,320
Speaker 10: way out the door, we have to have these reports confirmed.

591
00:33:36,400 --> 00:33:40,280
Speaker 10: We're seeing pictures and satellite imagery that they may be

592
00:33:40,360 --> 00:33:43,520
Speaker 10: evacuating fully and I wouldn't be surprised that that gets

593
00:33:43,560 --> 00:33:44,560
Speaker 10: confirmed to the incredible.

594
00:33:44,640 --> 00:33:47,920
Speaker 7: So Russia loses a massive naval port.

595
00:33:48,280 --> 00:33:52,120
Speaker 5: Yes, Iran loses a land bridge, Right, how does it

596
00:33:52,200 --> 00:33:55,840
Speaker 5: get material to Hesbalas who it's syndicates without Syria being there.

597
00:33:55,920 --> 00:33:58,920
Speaker 10: It's going to be tougher and tougher going forward for them.

598
00:33:58,800 --> 00:34:01,080
Speaker 5: To get a carve out of With this new government,

599
00:34:01,320 --> 00:34:03,960
Speaker 5: I doubt can call it a government because.

600
00:34:03,760 --> 00:34:06,680
Speaker 10: Even though HTS is no friend of the United States,

601
00:34:06,800 --> 00:34:10,560
Speaker 10: they're saying one of our enemies is Iran and Hezbollah.

602
00:34:11,000 --> 00:34:13,480
Speaker 10: So I think they they're not even calling us an

603
00:34:13,560 --> 00:34:16,359
Speaker 10: enemy per se so far, but they're naming the other two.

604
00:34:16,680 --> 00:34:18,920
Speaker 10: So I think they have a lot going.

605
00:34:18,640 --> 00:34:19,800
Speaker 7: With those two entities.

606
00:34:20,080 --> 00:34:23,760
Speaker 10: I think if there's an ultimate understanding or modus vivendi

607
00:34:23,880 --> 00:34:25,719
Speaker 10: to be worked out in the United States, it would

608
00:34:25,800 --> 00:34:30,320
Speaker 10: be that our forces in southern Syria and maybe others

609
00:34:30,320 --> 00:34:33,560
Speaker 10: would block that land bridge. By the way, and this

610
00:34:33,600 --> 00:34:35,799
Speaker 10: is a great opportunity, and other people have written about it,

611
00:34:35,840 --> 00:34:38,000
Speaker 10: what a great opportunity this is for Lebanon, and so

612
00:34:38,040 --> 00:34:39,640
Speaker 10: I know that's on Israel's mind as well.

613
00:34:40,360 --> 00:34:44,800
Speaker 5: What happens to US allied Kurdish forces in Syria.

614
00:34:44,920 --> 00:34:47,520
Speaker 10: That's the big question because, as you know, Donald Trump

615
00:34:48,040 --> 00:34:51,400
Speaker 10: not once but twice indicated a willingness to sort of

616
00:34:51,560 --> 00:34:55,880
Speaker 10: let that alliance go. We tried others, remember General Mattis

617
00:34:55,920 --> 00:34:57,920
Speaker 10: tried to make the case that you know, it's the

618
00:34:58,200 --> 00:35:00,760
Speaker 10: Kurds who are assisting us in the war on Isis

619
00:35:00,840 --> 00:35:03,760
Speaker 10: up in the north. So that's a big question going forward.

620
00:35:03,960 --> 00:35:06,880
Speaker 10: You saw Trump's tweet all caps he doesn't want to

621
00:35:06,920 --> 00:35:09,400
Speaker 10: stay involved very much. But we should be worried a

622
00:35:09,400 --> 00:35:12,279
Speaker 10: little bit about the Kurds because they not only help

623
00:35:12,320 --> 00:35:15,480
Speaker 10: us against ISIS, they're controlling a bunch of prison camps

624
00:35:15,480 --> 00:35:18,920
Speaker 10: with a lot of ISIS terrorists in them. We don't

625
00:35:18,960 --> 00:35:21,880
Speaker 10: want them to be degraded or these prisons to become

626
00:35:21,960 --> 00:35:23,960
Speaker 10: into let's call it a jail break situation.

627
00:35:24,040 --> 00:35:25,560
Speaker 7: Well, so give me the big picture on this.

628
00:35:25,640 --> 00:35:30,440
Speaker 5: You've spent a career in national security trying to prevent

629
00:35:30,680 --> 00:35:36,120
Speaker 5: terrorism and fight with insurgencies to the extent of keeping

630
00:35:36,120 --> 00:35:40,520
Speaker 5: the United States safe. This is a massive vacuum in

631
00:35:40,560 --> 00:35:43,759
Speaker 5: the middle of a dangerous neighborhood where terrorism could be

632
00:35:43,840 --> 00:35:47,799
Speaker 5: based against the Western world, including the US. Are are

633
00:35:47,920 --> 00:35:51,040
Speaker 5: over the horizon. Capability is enough to counter that.

634
00:35:51,360 --> 00:35:53,040
Speaker 10: I don't think they are. I mean, the main one

635
00:35:53,080 --> 00:35:55,520
Speaker 10: of the lessons from nine to eleven was that in

636
00:35:55,880 --> 00:36:01,879
Speaker 10: ungoverned spaces are indications that terrorists can They already had

637
00:36:02,000 --> 00:36:08,240
Speaker 10: some external operations capability. I think that's what our obvious

638
00:36:08,400 --> 00:36:11,520
Speaker 10: interests are now. To be crude about it, it's about

639
00:36:11,640 --> 00:36:14,960
Speaker 10: keeping our boot on their throat so that they can't

640
00:36:15,080 --> 00:36:18,640
Speaker 10: plan external operations to hit the United States. They may

641
00:36:18,640 --> 00:36:22,560
Speaker 10: be able to do things locally or regionally, but the CIA,

642
00:36:23,000 --> 00:36:26,480
Speaker 10: our special operators, and our allies in the region need

643
00:36:26,560 --> 00:36:30,000
Speaker 10: to be able to continue to degrade these types of

644
00:36:30,080 --> 00:36:35,880
Speaker 10: terrorists organizations or else we're gonna pay the duties or are.

645
00:36:35,760 --> 00:36:39,080
Speaker 5: Those US operatives likely moving into Syria now?

646
00:36:39,480 --> 00:36:44,000
Speaker 10: I would doubt that the Biden folks are recommitting this late.

647
00:36:44,200 --> 00:36:48,000
Speaker 10: Oh yeah, but we have other troops down in the

648
00:36:48,080 --> 00:36:50,799
Speaker 10: South that I think we transferred a lot of these

649
00:36:50,880 --> 00:36:54,600
Speaker 10: duties to. The Jordanians have a presence there. We have

650
00:36:54,680 --> 00:36:58,040
Speaker 10: had a relationship with some friendly rebels, if you will,

651
00:36:58,360 --> 00:37:00,960
Speaker 10: in the South. So I think we're probably probably already

652
00:37:00,960 --> 00:37:03,840
Speaker 10: in touch and reactivating a lot of this. But a

653
00:37:03,840 --> 00:37:06,360
Speaker 10: lot of this will come down to what President Trump's

654
00:37:06,360 --> 00:37:09,760
Speaker 10: attitude will be. He famously, of course, prosecuted the case

655
00:37:09,960 --> 00:37:12,440
Speaker 10: harder than it had ever been on ISIS in the

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00:37:12,480 --> 00:37:16,279
Speaker 10: first place, so that may be something that rises in

657
00:37:16,400 --> 00:37:17,960
Speaker 10: his mind here in the coming week, and.

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00:37:18,040 --> 00:37:21,680
Speaker 5: That ISIS could be reconstituted or strengthened in Syria.

659
00:37:21,440 --> 00:37:24,879
Speaker 10: If we don't continue a sustained campaign to keep them down.

660
00:37:24,960 --> 00:37:27,360
Speaker 5: No troops though, no boots going in based on at

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00:37:27,440 --> 00:37:29,719
Speaker 5: least what we saw from the President I think.

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00:37:29,800 --> 00:37:32,799
Speaker 10: I mean, I would even think that he would want

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00:37:32,840 --> 00:37:34,640
Speaker 10: to withdraw troops, perhaps.

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00:37:34,280 --> 00:37:35,080
Speaker 7: Get the emersions.

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00:37:35,400 --> 00:37:38,000
Speaker 10: But we'll just have to see how it all goes down.

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00:37:38,040 --> 00:37:41,040
Speaker 5: We've just got two minutes left here, Michael Allen. How

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00:37:41,040 --> 00:37:44,600
Speaker 5: do we take advantage? How do we seek opportunity in

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00:37:44,640 --> 00:37:46,880
Speaker 5: the loss of that Russian base on the Mediterranean if

669
00:37:46,880 --> 00:37:48,200
Speaker 5: in fact they are evacuating.

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00:37:48,239 --> 00:37:50,680
Speaker 10: So I think if there are opportunities for us to

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00:37:50,760 --> 00:37:55,840
Speaker 10: put pressure on that particular region so that the Russians

672
00:37:55,880 --> 00:37:59,520
Speaker 10: can go ahead and move out, maybe facilitate their egress,

673
00:37:59,560 --> 00:38:02,200
Speaker 10: if you will, then I think that is in the long,

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00:38:02,320 --> 00:38:04,680
Speaker 10: medium term to long term interest in the United States

675
00:38:04,719 --> 00:38:06,920
Speaker 10: to lock the Russians out of the Middle East, where

676
00:38:06,960 --> 00:38:09,960
Speaker 10: they've been at least since twenty thirteen, twenty fourteen. So

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00:38:10,040 --> 00:38:12,160
Speaker 10: I think that should become an objective of the Biden

678
00:38:12,160 --> 00:38:15,959
Speaker 10: administration as they're departing. Certainly, Ukraine plays a big role

679
00:38:16,000 --> 00:38:19,239
Speaker 10: in this. They have probably they've already been moving forces

680
00:38:19,280 --> 00:38:21,560
Speaker 10: out of the Middle East to get back over there.

681
00:38:21,640 --> 00:38:24,800
Speaker 10: But I think that's something we really need to pursue

682
00:38:24,920 --> 00:38:26,440
Speaker 10: as one of our national objectives.

683
00:38:26,520 --> 00:38:29,640
Speaker 5: This is nothing short of a massive rebalancing of power

684
00:38:30,239 --> 00:38:34,279
Speaker 5: in the Middle East here because of Putin's error and

685
00:38:34,400 --> 00:38:35,280
Speaker 5: Iran's error.

686
00:38:35,360 --> 00:38:38,600
Speaker 10: Putin's error and of course it all started arguably with

687
00:38:38,760 --> 00:38:43,520
Speaker 10: Solamani because Iran had less influence and cloud around the region.

688
00:38:43,560 --> 00:38:46,719
Speaker 10: And it was accelerated by October seventh as the Israelis

689
00:38:46,760 --> 00:38:50,520
Speaker 10: continued to prosecute their own targets, especially when they went

690
00:38:50,560 --> 00:38:55,279
Speaker 10: in to Syria and especially into Lebanon. We degraded, they

691
00:38:55,320 --> 00:38:59,920
Speaker 10: degraded Hesbalah and you're seeing the after effects on and on.

692
00:39:00,320 --> 00:39:02,239
Speaker 7: We're at a time is the world safer or not

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00:39:02,440 --> 00:39:04,480
Speaker 7: with what just took place in Syria.

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00:39:04,600 --> 00:39:07,120
Speaker 10: I want to say in the medium to longer term,

695
00:39:07,160 --> 00:39:09,640
Speaker 10: we'll be safer, but there's a dangerous period on us.

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Speaker 7: Remarkable stuff. Michael Allen. Great to have you back.

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Speaker 10: Thank you.

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Speaker 5: It's been some time Beacon Global Strategies and a great

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00:39:14,640 --> 00:39:17,600
Speaker 5: conversation always with Michael with his experience in the national

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Speaker 5: security space. Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast.

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Speaker 5: Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify,

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00:39:28,840 --> 00:39:31,399
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00:39:31,480 --> 00:39:34,720
Speaker 5: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern

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00:39:35,000 --> 00:39:36,440
Speaker 5: at Bloomberg dot com