1 00:00:00,640 --> 00:00:03,720 Speaker 1: Welcome in, friends to betting pros. It is the college 2 00:00:03,720 --> 00:00:10,600 Speaker 1: football early line look for conference championships. Regular season peace out, 3 00:00:10,800 --> 00:00:14,400 Speaker 1: you're gone. It's conference championships and guess what we're breaking 4 00:00:14,440 --> 00:00:17,560 Speaker 1: them all down. We've got early line looks. Is there 5 00:00:17,600 --> 00:00:20,400 Speaker 1: some value? I'm going to give you a teaser. There's one. 6 00:00:20,840 --> 00:00:23,520 Speaker 1: Right as the show started, Thor was like, I had 7 00:00:23,520 --> 00:00:25,560 Speaker 1: to hit this quick, and you might want to hit 8 00:00:25,560 --> 00:00:28,200 Speaker 1: this quick because this line might be a moven. We'll 9 00:00:28,240 --> 00:00:30,880 Speaker 1: be talking about that more. We got Eric Froton, We 10 00:00:31,000 --> 00:00:33,680 Speaker 1: got Thorn and Eistrom in the house, c ff Froton 11 00:00:34,159 --> 00:00:39,120 Speaker 1: and Thor Ku gentlemen, we are in the conference championship time. 12 00:00:39,800 --> 00:00:42,519 Speaker 1: It's a full time. It was a wild weekend, you know, 13 00:00:42,600 --> 00:00:45,320 Speaker 1: one of the better games of the entire season. Michigan, 14 00:00:45,760 --> 00:00:50,280 Speaker 1: Ohio State, everything tables being set. Any final thoughts on 15 00:00:50,320 --> 00:00:53,680 Speaker 1: the regular season betting props anything from that perspective. 16 00:00:54,640 --> 00:00:58,680 Speaker 2: Yeah, we just closed out the season long props and 17 00:00:58,920 --> 00:01:03,680 Speaker 2: that's always a yearly you know, feeding fest at the trough. 18 00:01:04,040 --> 00:01:06,240 Speaker 2: I know that Thor and I were both sweating Malachi 19 00:01:06,360 --> 00:01:09,520 Speaker 2: Corley and Carson Steele, so we went one on one, 20 00:01:10,200 --> 00:01:12,000 Speaker 2: one and one in those how many. 21 00:01:11,760 --> 00:01:14,440 Speaker 3: How many how many text messages did I send you 22 00:01:14,520 --> 00:01:17,160 Speaker 3: last night after midnight with the Carson Steele under we 23 00:01:17,680 --> 00:01:19,839 Speaker 3: Forroton and I we had a lot of money riding 24 00:01:19,880 --> 00:01:22,440 Speaker 3: on Carson Steel just had to go under one hundred 25 00:01:22,480 --> 00:01:24,440 Speaker 3: and five or hundred and six yards because of our 26 00:01:24,480 --> 00:01:27,880 Speaker 3: season long you know, a best at interest on that. 27 00:01:28,280 --> 00:01:32,919 Speaker 3: I was sending Froton run by run updates on Carson Steel. 28 00:01:33,600 --> 00:01:37,360 Speaker 3: I was like Brian Fontana in the Panda Cage and Anchorman. 29 00:01:37,040 --> 00:01:40,640 Speaker 4: And it was Carson Steele updates. Just yeah, every two minutes. 30 00:01:40,360 --> 00:01:42,520 Speaker 5: Of Roton riveted, I mean he was. 31 00:01:43,040 --> 00:01:46,800 Speaker 2: There was nothing but one percent focus on the color 32 00:01:46,840 --> 00:01:48,280 Speaker 2: of the hair coming out of the back of the 33 00:01:48,280 --> 00:01:52,480 Speaker 2: helmet from whoever's lining up in the backfield alongside Dante. 34 00:01:52,560 --> 00:01:55,640 Speaker 2: More So, fortunately we ended up hitting that. 35 00:01:55,640 --> 00:01:58,600 Speaker 5: That was that was big. But you know, he was under. 36 00:01:58,480 --> 00:02:01,440 Speaker 2: Nine nine hundred and a half freshing yards and Corley 37 00:02:01,600 --> 00:02:03,840 Speaker 2: was nine hundred and ninety nine and a half receiving yards. 38 00:02:03,960 --> 00:02:06,920 Speaker 2: He missed one game all season and that threw us off. 39 00:02:07,640 --> 00:02:12,079 Speaker 2: Be careful lesson, Lord, be careful when you're betting overs 40 00:02:12,680 --> 00:02:14,119 Speaker 2: when it comes to season long play. 41 00:02:14,240 --> 00:02:15,959 Speaker 3: And then they inched up at halft it gets f 42 00:02:16,440 --> 00:02:19,680 Speaker 3: fi uly yesterday, Yeah, because they were beating them by 43 00:02:19,680 --> 00:02:23,840 Speaker 3: two by ripping our hair out About that, but we digress. 44 00:02:24,120 --> 00:02:26,960 Speaker 2: We thought that they would have some motivation. It's fiu 45 00:02:27,600 --> 00:02:30,000 Speaker 2: for them to get the thousand yard barrier for Coraly. 46 00:02:30,200 --> 00:02:31,320 Speaker 5: Now they didn't care about it. 47 00:02:31,600 --> 00:02:34,040 Speaker 1: Only so many more weeks we're gonna be able to 48 00:02:34,120 --> 00:02:35,760 Speaker 1: rip out our hair and it won't be to the 49 00:02:35,760 --> 00:02:39,520 Speaker 1: same degree of those beautiful Saturdays. But what we do 50 00:02:39,680 --> 00:02:43,000 Speaker 1: have coming up here is we've got conference championship, We've 51 00:02:43,000 --> 00:02:45,520 Speaker 1: got all the games, we've got the early lines. That's 52 00:02:45,520 --> 00:02:48,359 Speaker 1: what we're going to be breaking down here. So just no, 53 00:02:48,560 --> 00:02:50,720 Speaker 1: I guess it doesn't matter necessarily now, but we've been 54 00:02:50,919 --> 00:02:55,200 Speaker 1: rocking at Live Bettingpros dot com, YouTube dot com, Slash 55 00:02:55,200 --> 00:02:57,280 Speaker 1: Betting Pros. If you guys have wanted to see the 56 00:02:57,360 --> 00:02:59,760 Speaker 1: videos and the last couple of weeks we've been live 57 00:02:59,800 --> 00:03:02,239 Speaker 1: but on the podcast as well. Make sure you're subscribed 58 00:03:02,240 --> 00:03:05,680 Speaker 1: so you don't miss anything. Gentlemen, let's get into some 59 00:03:05,800 --> 00:03:08,160 Speaker 1: conference championship games and we are going to go to 60 00:03:08,240 --> 00:03:13,440 Speaker 1: the USA Championship Conference USA Championship New Mexico State who 61 00:03:13,480 --> 00:03:15,919 Speaker 1: finished out ten and three seven and one in the conference, 62 00:03:15,919 --> 00:03:19,200 Speaker 1: going up against Liberty, who's twelve and zero undefeated in 63 00:03:19,240 --> 00:03:22,399 Speaker 1: the conference, obviously, and this early line opened up over 64 00:03:22,480 --> 00:03:24,600 Speaker 1: on betting pros. We've got all the early odds that 65 00:03:24,600 --> 00:03:26,680 Speaker 1: you guys want to check out. It'll show you where 66 00:03:26,680 --> 00:03:29,800 Speaker 1: the lines opened, where they are now, it's the place 67 00:03:29,840 --> 00:03:33,040 Speaker 1: to be. We've got a Liberty minus ten and a 68 00:03:33,080 --> 00:03:36,080 Speaker 1: half early line, So thor talk to us about where 69 00:03:36,160 --> 00:03:38,400 Speaker 1: your system opened this bad boy up and if there's 70 00:03:38,400 --> 00:03:40,240 Speaker 1: a bet you're trying to get in right now. 71 00:03:41,000 --> 00:03:44,560 Speaker 3: Yeah, my line on this game is Liberty minus eleven 72 00:03:44,600 --> 00:03:48,120 Speaker 3: point nine. This game is in Lynchburg, so it's a 73 00:03:48,120 --> 00:03:51,040 Speaker 3: home game for Liberty. For these games, four out of 74 00:03:51,080 --> 00:03:54,280 Speaker 3: the ten conference championship games are at one of the teams. 75 00:03:54,440 --> 00:03:57,120 Speaker 3: They're all the four of the five G five ones 76 00:03:57,360 --> 00:04:00,000 Speaker 3: at a home field. They're all the Power five ones 77 00:04:00,080 --> 00:04:02,560 Speaker 3: are on a neutral So just something to keep in mind. 78 00:04:02,640 --> 00:04:04,360 Speaker 3: You know whether you bake in the home field advantage, 79 00:04:04,400 --> 00:04:07,200 Speaker 3: whether you don't, but in this one we do. It's 80 00:04:07,240 --> 00:04:10,480 Speaker 3: an interesting handicap in that the fighting Jerry Kills just 81 00:04:10,560 --> 00:04:14,440 Speaker 3: keep overcoming all circumstances, keep winning over and over again. 82 00:04:14,480 --> 00:04:16,160 Speaker 3: I mean a couple of weeks ago Obviously, they had 83 00:04:16,160 --> 00:04:19,920 Speaker 3: the rousing upset of Auburn, who absolutely should have beaten 84 00:04:20,080 --> 00:04:23,320 Speaker 3: Alabama yesterday, the most ridiculous ending to a game I've 85 00:04:23,360 --> 00:04:25,160 Speaker 3: ever seen. We'll talk about that in a little bit 86 00:04:25,160 --> 00:04:27,839 Speaker 3: when we're breaking down the SEC game. But then, you know, 87 00:04:27,960 --> 00:04:29,440 Speaker 3: and that was it that game. 88 00:04:30,200 --> 00:04:30,440 Speaker 4: You know. 89 00:04:30,520 --> 00:04:33,240 Speaker 3: Then New Mexico State on the same day, they turn 90 00:04:33,320 --> 00:04:36,599 Speaker 3: around play Jacksonville State, a team who is not allowed 91 00:04:36,640 --> 00:04:39,440 Speaker 3: to play in the Conference USA title game. So that 92 00:04:39,600 --> 00:04:42,720 Speaker 3: was where Jacksonville State had all their eggs in that basket. 93 00:04:42,960 --> 00:04:45,520 Speaker 3: New Mexico State didn't have much motivation in that game, 94 00:04:45,560 --> 00:04:47,760 Speaker 3: you wouldn't have thought, because they knew that they were 95 00:04:47,800 --> 00:04:50,320 Speaker 3: locked into play in this game. And New Mexico State 96 00:04:50,400 --> 00:04:52,760 Speaker 3: still beats them, so they just keep doing it over 97 00:04:52,800 --> 00:04:55,839 Speaker 3: and over again. This is another one where it doesn't 98 00:04:55,880 --> 00:04:58,360 Speaker 3: appear to be the best matchup for New Mexico State. 99 00:04:58,520 --> 00:04:59,320 Speaker 4: Just like last week. 100 00:04:59,400 --> 00:05:01,760 Speaker 3: I mean, I was Jacksonville State and the state of 101 00:05:01,839 --> 00:05:05,479 Speaker 3: reason was New Mexico State's run defense isn't great, and 102 00:05:05,760 --> 00:05:09,440 Speaker 3: just like Jacksonville State, Liberty has an awesome running offense. 103 00:05:10,120 --> 00:05:13,719 Speaker 3: Can Jerry Kill and New Mexico State overcome circumstance again? 104 00:05:13,760 --> 00:05:16,080 Speaker 3: They're going to have to here on the road in 105 00:05:16,120 --> 00:05:18,400 Speaker 3: this game. But again, they just keep doing it week 106 00:05:18,440 --> 00:05:20,800 Speaker 3: after week after week. I don't know if I can 107 00:05:20,839 --> 00:05:24,080 Speaker 3: fade Jerry Kell again. My system says there's ever you know, 108 00:05:24,360 --> 00:05:27,000 Speaker 3: the slightest amount a doll up of line value on 109 00:05:27,040 --> 00:05:29,560 Speaker 3: Liberty Right now, as we talk about this on Sunday, 110 00:05:30,080 --> 00:05:32,440 Speaker 3: I'm gonna have to dig more into this game. I've 111 00:05:32,480 --> 00:05:35,039 Speaker 3: gotten skittish fading Jerry kill Forton. 112 00:05:35,680 --> 00:05:38,080 Speaker 1: According to betting pros, you can take a look at 113 00:05:38,080 --> 00:05:41,359 Speaker 1: the game odds. This opened up at fourteen at least 114 00:05:41,400 --> 00:05:45,320 Speaker 1: on the US books here, and we've seen a pretty big, 115 00:05:45,800 --> 00:05:47,800 Speaker 1: you know, pop down. We're down to ten and a half, 116 00:05:47,800 --> 00:05:50,239 Speaker 1: so it's a pretty big move from where it opened. 117 00:05:50,520 --> 00:05:52,080 Speaker 1: I don't know if you've got any other type of 118 00:05:52,120 --> 00:05:54,280 Speaker 1: line movement, some of the offshore stuff like you've mentioned, 119 00:05:54,279 --> 00:05:56,440 Speaker 1: But what do you think about the line movement and 120 00:05:56,480 --> 00:05:57,360 Speaker 1: what's your play here? 121 00:05:57,960 --> 00:06:01,599 Speaker 2: Yeah, in fact, the line movement here circa so Las 122 00:06:01,720 --> 00:06:04,599 Speaker 2: Vegas is biggest in the sharpest book in the world 123 00:06:04,960 --> 00:06:07,800 Speaker 2: opened it up at minus nine. It's at ten and 124 00:06:07,839 --> 00:06:10,080 Speaker 2: a half right now. As you mentioned, the domestics open 125 00:06:10,120 --> 00:06:14,480 Speaker 2: it up at fourteen. So this is certainly a Domestics 126 00:06:14,560 --> 00:06:17,919 Speaker 2: versus Vegas discrepancy in this line getting up to the 127 00:06:17,920 --> 00:06:21,440 Speaker 2: ten and a half, which is closer to circa. Obviously, 128 00:06:21,520 --> 00:06:24,600 Speaker 2: going from fourteenth to that, I tend to agree what 129 00:06:24,680 --> 00:06:28,000 Speaker 2: I really like is fifty five and a half or 130 00:06:28,080 --> 00:06:31,640 Speaker 2: somewhere in that mid fifties range for and over under, 131 00:06:32,360 --> 00:06:34,760 Speaker 2: because I mean, what these two teams do is they 132 00:06:34,800 --> 00:06:39,039 Speaker 2: score points. Caden Salter, Diego Pavia, both of them, in 133 00:06:39,120 --> 00:06:43,680 Speaker 2: terms of the college fantasy realm, were very very sought after, 134 00:06:43,920 --> 00:06:47,000 Speaker 2: highly softer quarterbacks. First part, Salter was a top ten 135 00:06:47,040 --> 00:06:51,120 Speaker 2: scoring quarterback, Pavia top twenty. So both of these, you know, 136 00:06:51,160 --> 00:06:54,120 Speaker 2: they have very capable signal callers. And where you look 137 00:06:54,160 --> 00:06:57,440 Speaker 2: at Liberty, as Thor mentioned, they also have Quentin Cooley, 138 00:06:57,920 --> 00:07:00,839 Speaker 2: who is one of the top ten rushing you know, 139 00:07:00,920 --> 00:07:04,240 Speaker 2: running backs this year in terms of production. He's they 140 00:07:04,279 --> 00:07:06,560 Speaker 2: give it to him early and often he's rode hard 141 00:07:06,560 --> 00:07:07,440 Speaker 2: and put away wet. 142 00:07:08,200 --> 00:07:09,520 Speaker 5: I actually like the over in this. 143 00:07:09,600 --> 00:07:12,120 Speaker 2: I don't think either defense is going to be I mean, 144 00:07:12,200 --> 00:07:14,760 Speaker 2: I like Liberty, you don't get me wrong, but like 145 00:07:14,800 --> 00:07:17,560 Speaker 2: you said, you know, New Mexico State will find a 146 00:07:17,560 --> 00:07:20,480 Speaker 2: way to score. And if you like New Mexico State 147 00:07:20,560 --> 00:07:23,240 Speaker 2: to win. I think they're going to have to. I 148 00:07:23,240 --> 00:07:25,760 Speaker 2: would score Liberty. They're not going to stop them in 149 00:07:25,840 --> 00:07:29,280 Speaker 2: my estimation. So that certainly points to an over sort 150 00:07:29,320 --> 00:07:30,679 Speaker 2: of a game script in my estimation. 151 00:07:31,480 --> 00:07:33,160 Speaker 1: And I forgot to mention at the very top the 152 00:07:33,200 --> 00:07:34,720 Speaker 1: cool thing here, we get to split these up a 153 00:07:34,760 --> 00:07:36,840 Speaker 1: little bit. This is a Friday game, and we've got 154 00:07:36,840 --> 00:07:39,360 Speaker 1: one more Friday game we're going to move to on 155 00:07:39,480 --> 00:07:43,480 Speaker 1: these conference championships, where we are going to the PAC twelve. 156 00:07:43,520 --> 00:07:47,000 Speaker 1: Say goodbye PAC twelve Championship Oregon, Who's eleven to one, 157 00:07:47,080 --> 00:07:49,040 Speaker 1: eight and one in the PAC twelve going up against 158 00:07:49,120 --> 00:07:53,520 Speaker 1: Washington undefeated across the board, organ opens up as a 159 00:07:53,720 --> 00:07:58,120 Speaker 1: eight and a half point favorite for with what looks 160 00:07:58,200 --> 00:08:01,440 Speaker 1: like a total of around sixty seven and a half 161 00:08:01,520 --> 00:08:03,640 Speaker 1: so per usual. Is there a bet you want to 162 00:08:03,680 --> 00:08:06,200 Speaker 1: jump in quick? And what is your adjusted line telling 163 00:08:06,240 --> 00:08:07,040 Speaker 1: us about this game? 164 00:08:07,920 --> 00:08:10,160 Speaker 3: I'm not gonna I'm not gonna jump in today on 165 00:08:10,200 --> 00:08:12,880 Speaker 3: this one, but I'm gonna be monitoring this line pretty 166 00:08:12,880 --> 00:08:16,040 Speaker 3: close because if it, if it happens to hit ten, 167 00:08:16,680 --> 00:08:20,000 Speaker 3: I'm not not anticipating it, but I'm gonna wait for 168 00:08:20,080 --> 00:08:23,920 Speaker 3: it and just see I'd be hitting Washington. Then for sure, 169 00:08:24,720 --> 00:08:27,239 Speaker 3: I think some of the hype around Oregon is starting 170 00:08:27,240 --> 00:08:28,840 Speaker 3: to go a little far, and I think some of 171 00:08:28,880 --> 00:08:31,080 Speaker 3: the maybe the fading or some of the pessimism on 172 00:08:31,240 --> 00:08:34,240 Speaker 3: Washington maybe is going too far. The other way, I 173 00:08:34,320 --> 00:08:36,760 Speaker 3: watched all the Apple Cup and I was on Wazoo, 174 00:08:36,960 --> 00:08:39,600 Speaker 3: you know, I took the points. That was the unique 175 00:08:39,600 --> 00:08:43,880 Speaker 3: scenario where Washington was obviously looking to this game and Wazoo, 176 00:08:43,960 --> 00:08:46,960 Speaker 3: you know, was was going uh all out to try 177 00:08:46,960 --> 00:08:49,320 Speaker 3: to beat them whatever. Wazuo was trying to get into 178 00:08:49,320 --> 00:08:51,400 Speaker 3: a ballgame too. They were five and six in that one, 179 00:08:51,440 --> 00:08:54,760 Speaker 3: and they that that jilted Lover their last game in 180 00:08:54,800 --> 00:08:57,560 Speaker 3: the in the PAC twelve and everything like that. Whereas 181 00:08:57,679 --> 00:09:01,960 Speaker 3: Oregon they they they had one not on paper was 182 00:09:02,000 --> 00:09:04,720 Speaker 3: the easier assignment, but it turned out to be playing 183 00:09:04,800 --> 00:09:07,920 Speaker 3: Oregon State because as we as we came to find 184 00:09:07,920 --> 00:09:11,440 Speaker 3: out after the fact, not only had Oregon States head 185 00:09:11,480 --> 00:09:15,360 Speaker 3: coach Jonathan Smith decided in advance of that game to 186 00:09:15,520 --> 00:09:19,120 Speaker 3: leave right after it for Michigan State, but basically his. 187 00:09:19,240 --> 00:09:20,360 Speaker 4: Entire staff had too. 188 00:09:20,880 --> 00:09:23,679 Speaker 3: So that week in advance of that they were negotiating 189 00:09:23,679 --> 00:09:26,160 Speaker 3: their contracts, they were talking about their plans to move 190 00:09:26,200 --> 00:09:30,480 Speaker 3: to East Lansing. They were evading media questions about it 191 00:09:30,520 --> 00:09:32,480 Speaker 3: and trying to you know, word it, you know, in 192 00:09:32,520 --> 00:09:35,440 Speaker 3: a flowery way or whatever. It was very clear that 193 00:09:35,520 --> 00:09:37,400 Speaker 3: Oregon say it was not prepared for that game, and 194 00:09:37,640 --> 00:09:39,360 Speaker 3: Oregon did to them whatever they wanted. 195 00:09:39,400 --> 00:09:40,880 Speaker 4: To Washington. 196 00:09:41,080 --> 00:09:43,280 Speaker 3: The thing that has impressed me about Washington this year 197 00:09:43,440 --> 00:09:46,920 Speaker 3: is they can win in numerous different ways. They can 198 00:09:46,960 --> 00:09:50,240 Speaker 3: do the shootout thing, but then in games where you know, 199 00:09:50,280 --> 00:09:52,600 Speaker 3: they don't have their fastball as far as like the 200 00:09:52,640 --> 00:09:55,599 Speaker 3: aerial offense goes, they can slow it down with the 201 00:09:55,679 --> 00:09:58,079 Speaker 3: running game. They can play some better defense, and they 202 00:09:58,080 --> 00:10:00,160 Speaker 3: can try to win. They've won some of the these 203 00:10:00,200 --> 00:10:03,880 Speaker 3: lower scoring games as well. I like Oregon, but I 204 00:10:03,920 --> 00:10:06,320 Speaker 3: just think that this line getting up near double digits, 205 00:10:06,480 --> 00:10:08,800 Speaker 3: I think it's it's going a little bit too far. 206 00:10:09,000 --> 00:10:11,760 Speaker 3: My projective or my system's line is closer to a 207 00:10:11,800 --> 00:10:14,480 Speaker 3: touchdown in this game. So I'm gonna be waiting and 208 00:10:14,920 --> 00:10:17,280 Speaker 3: hoping that this thing hits ten. I'm not expecting it, 209 00:10:17,320 --> 00:10:20,840 Speaker 3: but we got some days here, you know, in advance 210 00:10:20,880 --> 00:10:22,840 Speaker 3: of this game, so I'm gonna be waiting and monitoring 211 00:10:22,840 --> 00:10:23,160 Speaker 3: this thing. 212 00:10:23,600 --> 00:10:26,200 Speaker 1: So for then, this one is really interesting because it 213 00:10:26,240 --> 00:10:29,800 Speaker 1: did open up around seven and a half. The best line. 214 00:10:29,880 --> 00:10:31,880 Speaker 1: If you go over to betting pros right now, you 215 00:10:31,880 --> 00:10:34,560 Speaker 1: can see fan duels. We're recording this eight and a half, 216 00:10:34,880 --> 00:10:37,800 Speaker 1: but there's nines, there's nine and a half, and there 217 00:10:37,840 --> 00:10:40,240 Speaker 1: are there's a book or two that has got that ten. 218 00:10:40,360 --> 00:10:43,640 Speaker 1: So this is all over the place in the early 219 00:10:43,720 --> 00:10:46,840 Speaker 1: on set. So what say you? Is that total going 220 00:10:46,920 --> 00:10:48,680 Speaker 1: to be in play for you? It's a Pac twelve matchup, 221 00:10:48,720 --> 00:10:51,040 Speaker 1: of course, but is that line getting juicy one side 222 00:10:51,120 --> 00:10:51,440 Speaker 1: or the other? 223 00:10:52,080 --> 00:10:55,520 Speaker 2: Yeah, like you said, you've seen at the time of recording. 224 00:10:55,640 --> 00:10:57,920 Speaker 2: This is a completely unsettled market. When it comes to 225 00:10:57,960 --> 00:11:01,120 Speaker 2: Oregon opening minus eight on CIRCA. If you can get 226 00:11:01,120 --> 00:11:03,320 Speaker 2: it that low, I mean, that's that's a pretty good deal. 227 00:11:04,000 --> 00:11:06,800 Speaker 2: When it comes to Washington, just another tightrope block over 228 00:11:06,880 --> 00:11:10,520 Speaker 2: Wazoo twenty four to twenty one. They've had eight straight 229 00:11:10,600 --> 00:11:14,920 Speaker 2: wins of ten points or less. Six of their last 230 00:11:14,920 --> 00:11:17,840 Speaker 2: eight has been one score less. You know, with Pennix, 231 00:11:19,040 --> 00:11:21,840 Speaker 2: of his last two games, he's completed thirty one of 232 00:11:21,840 --> 00:11:26,200 Speaker 2: the sixty one passes, just a shade over fifty percent. 233 00:11:27,240 --> 00:11:32,199 Speaker 2: This is not looked like the world beating Heisman contending 234 00:11:32,320 --> 00:11:34,440 Speaker 2: quarterback that we saw of the first so i'll call 235 00:11:34,480 --> 00:11:37,400 Speaker 2: it eight games or so. This year they were outgained 236 00:11:37,440 --> 00:11:40,000 Speaker 2: by Wazoo. They would put up three hundred and six 237 00:11:40,160 --> 00:11:44,800 Speaker 2: yards you know, against Washington State. Their run defense is 238 00:11:44,840 --> 00:11:46,959 Speaker 2: really what I think could hold him back. And then 239 00:11:47,120 --> 00:11:50,680 Speaker 2: in this matchup rank ninety eighth in terms of performance, 240 00:11:51,080 --> 00:11:53,920 Speaker 2: sixty first in EPA in terms of the overall defense, 241 00:11:54,559 --> 00:11:58,760 Speaker 2: and when you're dealing with Oregon, obviously, they've been dominating 242 00:11:59,400 --> 00:12:02,800 Speaker 2: everybody since losing to Washington, going six to zero with 243 00:12:02,960 --> 00:12:07,720 Speaker 2: a ninety nine percent win expectancy plus in each game, 244 00:12:07,840 --> 00:12:11,800 Speaker 2: averaging forty two a game, only allowing eighteen. I mean 245 00:12:11,920 --> 00:12:15,000 Speaker 2: term offensively, they can't be stopped. Their first and offensive 246 00:12:15,040 --> 00:12:17,839 Speaker 2: success rate first and points per drive second EPA in 247 00:12:17,880 --> 00:12:22,559 Speaker 2: my yards per play, and even their defense of fifteenth EPA. 248 00:12:22,679 --> 00:12:26,079 Speaker 2: This is just a more complete team. In terms of Oregon, 249 00:12:26,400 --> 00:12:29,000 Speaker 2: I actually kind of feel like when you have a 250 00:12:29,040 --> 00:12:31,320 Speaker 2: second meeting with the EAS two team, especially the way 251 00:12:31,559 --> 00:12:34,520 Speaker 2: Washington has been playing, I think you're gonna get less 252 00:12:34,559 --> 00:12:37,319 Speaker 2: points than what we got the first time round. It's 253 00:12:37,320 --> 00:12:39,800 Speaker 2: a pretty high over under at sixty six and a half. 254 00:12:40,360 --> 00:12:42,800 Speaker 2: I lean Oregon if you can get that minus eight 255 00:12:43,400 --> 00:12:46,920 Speaker 2: and the under as the Ducks just try to, you know, 256 00:12:47,120 --> 00:12:50,319 Speaker 2: salt the game, just try to lean on that Washington 257 00:12:50,720 --> 00:12:53,000 Speaker 2: front that just has not been able to stop people 258 00:12:53,040 --> 00:12:53,520 Speaker 2: on the ground. 259 00:12:54,000 --> 00:12:56,960 Speaker 1: Friday Night lights the end two games there for you 260 00:12:57,520 --> 00:13:01,360 Speaker 1: for some conference championships on Friday moving into Saturday. How 261 00:13:01,360 --> 00:13:04,240 Speaker 1: about the Big Dog. There was a tease earlier. Maybe 262 00:13:04,240 --> 00:13:07,640 Speaker 1: it's about this one, the Dr Pepper Big Twelve Championship. 263 00:13:07,679 --> 00:13:10,400 Speaker 1: Oklahoma State, who's nine and three, seven and two in 264 00:13:10,400 --> 00:13:12,720 Speaker 1: the Big Twelve, going up against Texas, who's eleven and one, 265 00:13:12,840 --> 00:13:15,520 Speaker 1: eight and one in the Big Twelve. And we have 266 00:13:15,640 --> 00:13:18,320 Speaker 1: seen it personally on this sheet. I've been like, bup 267 00:13:18,360 --> 00:13:21,200 Speaker 1: up up, delete, bup up up, delete, because this one 268 00:13:21,320 --> 00:13:24,200 Speaker 1: just keeps changing since I have been working on this 269 00:13:24,280 --> 00:13:28,680 Speaker 1: bad Boy. I've got thirteen currently for this game with 270 00:13:29,080 --> 00:13:31,920 Speaker 1: a total of a best line of fifty four over 271 00:13:32,040 --> 00:13:35,959 Speaker 1: with a under a fifty six, and that is movement 272 00:13:36,040 --> 00:13:38,800 Speaker 1: off of what it opened at. So thor I tease 273 00:13:38,880 --> 00:13:40,720 Speaker 1: it a little bit earlier, so I'm throwing it back 274 00:13:40,760 --> 00:13:42,760 Speaker 1: at you if there's a little bit of line value. 275 00:13:43,160 --> 00:13:44,880 Speaker 1: Texas Oklahoma State. 276 00:13:45,800 --> 00:13:48,400 Speaker 3: Yeah, and I got an update from what we were 277 00:13:48,440 --> 00:13:51,079 Speaker 3: talking about the PAC twelve title game. There are a 278 00:13:51,120 --> 00:13:53,560 Speaker 3: few books where that thing is now toggled up to ten, 279 00:13:53,880 --> 00:13:56,760 Speaker 3: so I didn't have to wait long. So yeah, yeah, 280 00:13:57,000 --> 00:13:59,440 Speaker 3: it's Juice Dodds and it's only had a couple of them, 281 00:13:59,720 --> 00:14:01,839 Speaker 3: but the other ones are all uniform at nine and 282 00:14:01,880 --> 00:14:04,319 Speaker 3: a half now, so it appears the market is pushing 283 00:14:04,320 --> 00:14:10,000 Speaker 3: that one that direction. That's that's where I'm That's where 284 00:14:10,000 --> 00:14:12,360 Speaker 3: my head is at. Is the Huskies at double did it, 285 00:14:12,480 --> 00:14:15,520 Speaker 3: So we'll continue to monitor that one. But yeah, as 286 00:14:15,559 --> 00:14:17,600 Speaker 3: for the Big twelve title game, this was my first 287 00:14:17,600 --> 00:14:19,720 Speaker 3: bet of the week, and I made a healthy one. 288 00:14:19,760 --> 00:14:22,520 Speaker 3: When I saw that opening line opened at eleven and 289 00:14:22,520 --> 00:14:24,600 Speaker 3: a half, I didn't see it there. I was running 290 00:14:24,600 --> 00:14:26,800 Speaker 3: my numbers earlier when I saw it was twelve and 291 00:14:26,840 --> 00:14:29,160 Speaker 3: a half. So that's where I punched my bed in, 292 00:14:29,320 --> 00:14:32,880 Speaker 3: punch it into the betting pros app earlier today. If 293 00:14:32,920 --> 00:14:35,000 Speaker 3: you follow me on there, turn your notifications on, you'll 294 00:14:35,040 --> 00:14:37,480 Speaker 3: get my bets when I put them in. And because 295 00:14:37,520 --> 00:14:40,120 Speaker 3: I knew that thing was going to go fourteen, maybe 296 00:14:40,160 --> 00:14:42,920 Speaker 3: fourteen and a half by kickoff, my line on this 297 00:14:43,000 --> 00:14:47,720 Speaker 3: game is Texas minus fourteen point nine. That's the objectively 298 00:14:47,800 --> 00:14:50,400 Speaker 3: fair line, not eleven. And a half, not twelve and 299 00:14:50,440 --> 00:14:54,640 Speaker 3: a half, not thirteen or you know at this point now, 300 00:14:54,840 --> 00:14:56,960 Speaker 3: I put that bet in an hour and a half 301 00:14:56,960 --> 00:14:59,840 Speaker 3: ago or whatever, thirteen and a half and fourteen across 302 00:14:59,880 --> 00:15:02,160 Speaker 3: the market, and like I said, that thing's going to 303 00:15:02,240 --> 00:15:05,360 Speaker 3: keep moving, I would guess kickoff, it's going to be 304 00:15:05,400 --> 00:15:06,720 Speaker 3: fourteen and a half or fifteen. 305 00:15:07,360 --> 00:15:11,880 Speaker 4: Oklahoma State is And this is contextually. This is coming 306 00:15:11,920 --> 00:15:12,520 Speaker 4: from someone. 307 00:15:12,360 --> 00:15:14,880 Speaker 3: Who was higher on Oklahoma State than just about anyone 308 00:15:14,880 --> 00:15:18,040 Speaker 3: else over the summer because I number one, I love 309 00:15:18,080 --> 00:15:20,680 Speaker 3: Olli Gordon. Number two, I thought Alan Boma was going 310 00:15:20,720 --> 00:15:22,200 Speaker 3: to be a better fit in that system than other 311 00:15:22,200 --> 00:15:22,680 Speaker 3: people did. 312 00:15:22,920 --> 00:15:25,480 Speaker 4: Number three, their schedule was terrible this year. 313 00:15:25,800 --> 00:15:28,720 Speaker 3: You won't see a Power five team play a softer schedule. 314 00:15:28,840 --> 00:15:31,280 Speaker 3: Then Oklahoma State got to play this year in the 315 00:15:31,320 --> 00:15:34,080 Speaker 3: one tough game they played was Bedlam. And you know, 316 00:15:34,520 --> 00:15:37,000 Speaker 3: they were fortunate in that game they won whatever, you know, 317 00:15:37,800 --> 00:15:38,720 Speaker 3: they won a coin flip. 318 00:15:38,880 --> 00:15:40,400 Speaker 4: They were on the right side of a coin flip. 319 00:15:41,280 --> 00:15:44,640 Speaker 3: This They avoided Texas this year, and that's the only 320 00:15:44,680 --> 00:15:48,040 Speaker 3: reason why I think this line drop was under two touchdowns. 321 00:15:48,280 --> 00:15:52,760 Speaker 3: Texas is not only way better than them, just you know, objectively, qualitatively, 322 00:15:52,800 --> 00:15:56,480 Speaker 3: everything like that. They are also a horrific matchup for 323 00:15:56,520 --> 00:16:00,960 Speaker 3: Oklahoma State. Oklahoma State has one trump card, that's Ollie Gordon. 324 00:16:00,960 --> 00:16:03,480 Speaker 3: They're running back. Their entire offense is get the ball 325 00:16:03,520 --> 00:16:06,480 Speaker 3: to Ali Gordon in every which way possible, hand them 326 00:16:06,520 --> 00:16:08,600 Speaker 3: the ball over and over again. Then get them the 327 00:16:08,600 --> 00:16:11,440 Speaker 3: ball outside, try to throw them the swing passes, everything 328 00:16:11,520 --> 00:16:14,040 Speaker 3: like that. You've seen them racking up around two hundred 329 00:16:14,040 --> 00:16:17,080 Speaker 3: dollars purpose yards per game during this run they've had 330 00:16:17,160 --> 00:16:20,240 Speaker 3: ever since the calendar turned to October these last couple 331 00:16:20,280 --> 00:16:23,120 Speaker 3: of months, Texas might have the best defensive front in 332 00:16:23,160 --> 00:16:26,200 Speaker 3: college FOOTBAF. It's not it's number two. It's either one 333 00:16:26,280 --> 00:16:29,320 Speaker 3: or two, and it has insane depth. To you turn 334 00:16:29,360 --> 00:16:32,080 Speaker 3: on any Texas game, the announcers will talk about they 335 00:16:32,080 --> 00:16:35,240 Speaker 3: have two starting defensive lines on that team, but the 336 00:16:35,640 --> 00:16:38,320 Speaker 3: real number one unit, those are all guys. It's like 337 00:16:38,360 --> 00:16:40,680 Speaker 3: the Georgia ones from the last couple ones. You're going 338 00:16:40,720 --> 00:16:43,360 Speaker 3: to see all those guys over the next two draft classes. 339 00:16:43,400 --> 00:16:45,440 Speaker 3: It's going to be a procession of first round picks 340 00:16:45,440 --> 00:16:47,480 Speaker 3: and second round picks, the same thing as we saw 341 00:16:47,560 --> 00:16:48,479 Speaker 3: with Georgia. 342 00:16:48,560 --> 00:16:50,480 Speaker 4: And they're so smart about the way they do it. 343 00:16:50,520 --> 00:16:53,680 Speaker 4: They run a four to five the run funneling stuff. 344 00:16:54,000 --> 00:16:56,400 Speaker 4: They have these two planet sized guys in the middle. 345 00:16:56,960 --> 00:17:01,160 Speaker 4: The one everybody talks about is Sweat, the kid who's 346 00:17:01,240 --> 00:17:05,080 Speaker 4: like six four three point fifty plus and an athletic freak, 347 00:17:05,400 --> 00:17:08,480 Speaker 4: but he can occupy at least two guys. The other 348 00:17:08,600 --> 00:17:09,800 Speaker 4: kid occupies guys. 349 00:17:09,840 --> 00:17:12,600 Speaker 3: The two ends keep containment, and then they have these 350 00:17:12,640 --> 00:17:15,960 Speaker 3: crazy athletes to linebackers that just fly around, so they 351 00:17:16,080 --> 00:17:19,560 Speaker 3: rarely have to delineate defensive backs to come up because 352 00:17:19,560 --> 00:17:21,879 Speaker 3: they can take care of the run. Just with those guys, 353 00:17:21,880 --> 00:17:24,199 Speaker 3: they can manhandle you at the line of scrimmage, and 354 00:17:24,240 --> 00:17:27,120 Speaker 3: then the linebackers are going to clean everything up. Very 355 00:17:27,240 --> 00:17:29,720 Speaker 3: very bad matchup for Oklahoma State. They're not going to 356 00:17:29,800 --> 00:17:32,160 Speaker 3: have that. You know, even when you know Ali Gordon 357 00:17:32,160 --> 00:17:34,200 Speaker 3: I think is gonna be dealt with. And then even 358 00:17:34,240 --> 00:17:36,240 Speaker 3: when they try to do the play action stuff that 359 00:17:36,320 --> 00:17:39,440 Speaker 3: then they try to get off with Ali Gordon going deep. 360 00:17:39,720 --> 00:17:41,840 Speaker 3: I don't think that's going to be there for Bowman either. 361 00:17:42,119 --> 00:17:43,560 Speaker 3: I think tex is gonna be able to flip the 362 00:17:43,560 --> 00:17:45,720 Speaker 3: field on him. Like I said, this line should be 363 00:17:45,720 --> 00:17:47,639 Speaker 3: fourteen and a half or fifteen, It's going to be 364 00:17:47,640 --> 00:17:48,560 Speaker 3: there very quickly. 365 00:17:48,880 --> 00:17:50,640 Speaker 4: This one is all long horns all the way. 366 00:17:51,280 --> 00:17:53,359 Speaker 1: Your boy has already made that bet. That is the 367 00:17:53,359 --> 00:17:55,760 Speaker 1: bet that I locked in right before we started. Couldn't 368 00:17:55,760 --> 00:17:58,720 Speaker 1: even go live until I made sure I got that bet. Froton, 369 00:17:59,400 --> 00:18:01,800 Speaker 1: It kicks back to you total. It's a little bit 370 00:18:01,840 --> 00:18:05,160 Speaker 1: wishy washy moving around. Obviously, this line is a quick 371 00:18:05,280 --> 00:18:07,480 Speaker 1: move in. Are you in agreement with Thor here that 372 00:18:07,520 --> 00:18:10,320 Speaker 1: you want to hit this bad boy now or do 373 00:18:10,400 --> 00:18:11,439 Speaker 1: you have a county argument? 374 00:18:12,320 --> 00:18:14,840 Speaker 2: No, I mean I totally agree with his assessment, especially 375 00:18:14,840 --> 00:18:17,040 Speaker 2: about the Texas run defense. I mean, keep in mind 376 00:18:17,040 --> 00:18:21,520 Speaker 2: that they graduated Moro Ajomo and Keyante Coborn, you know, 377 00:18:21,640 --> 00:18:26,160 Speaker 2: from the Interior to IDLs to the NFL that were 378 00:18:26,320 --> 00:18:28,960 Speaker 2: just absolute beasts as well. So just the amount of 379 00:18:29,000 --> 00:18:31,280 Speaker 2: depth they have on that defensive line and the way 380 00:18:31,320 --> 00:18:34,640 Speaker 2: that they've snuffed out the run game this entire year 381 00:18:34,640 --> 00:18:37,399 Speaker 2: has just been incredible. And like Thor said, you know, 382 00:18:37,440 --> 00:18:41,280 Speaker 2: with Oklahoma State Alan Bowman a ten to eleven ratio 383 00:18:41,840 --> 00:18:45,440 Speaker 2: touchdown interception, you know, at seventeen to twenty big time 384 00:18:45,480 --> 00:18:48,800 Speaker 2: throw to turnover worthy play rate. This is just an average, 385 00:18:49,359 --> 00:18:53,560 Speaker 2: you know, retread on his third team signal caller, but 386 00:18:53,760 --> 00:18:56,280 Speaker 2: Oli Gordon is the man. I mean, he's number one 387 00:18:56,280 --> 00:18:59,239 Speaker 2: in the country in fifteen plus yard runs. He has 388 00:18:59,280 --> 00:19:01,720 Speaker 2: twenty nine of them. Number two is twenty third. 389 00:19:01,880 --> 00:19:03,440 Speaker 5: That's R. J. Harvey for UCF. 390 00:19:03,560 --> 00:19:07,199 Speaker 2: So I mean he's significantly higher than the rest of 391 00:19:07,200 --> 00:19:09,960 Speaker 2: the field. But with Oklahoma State, I mean they're gonna 392 00:19:09,960 --> 00:19:12,320 Speaker 2: have to try to stop Texas as well. I mean, 393 00:19:12,359 --> 00:19:15,760 Speaker 2: and they're one hundred and ninth in EPA per play allowed. 394 00:19:16,280 --> 00:19:18,640 Speaker 2: You know, they're allowing six and a half yards per play. 395 00:19:18,680 --> 00:19:20,480 Speaker 2: That's one hundred and second out of one hundred and 396 00:19:20,520 --> 00:19:21,400 Speaker 2: thirty three teams. 397 00:19:22,440 --> 00:19:22,639 Speaker 5: You know. 398 00:19:22,720 --> 00:19:25,720 Speaker 2: Versus the pass, they're ninety eighth overall, they're allowing eight 399 00:19:25,760 --> 00:19:28,560 Speaker 2: point seven yards per attempt. That's one hundred and twenty fifth. 400 00:19:29,040 --> 00:19:32,600 Speaker 2: So like they're just bleeding all over the place this particular. 401 00:19:33,400 --> 00:19:38,320 Speaker 2: You know, defense of Oklahoma State completely agree. Texas destroying 402 00:19:38,440 --> 00:19:43,760 Speaker 2: everybody besides Oklahoma sixty six percent win expectancy or more 403 00:19:43,800 --> 00:19:45,760 Speaker 2: against every single team win their schedule. 404 00:19:46,280 --> 00:19:47,320 Speaker 5: Give me Texas. 405 00:19:47,640 --> 00:19:49,720 Speaker 3: And I think that the last point on this, and 406 00:19:50,040 --> 00:19:52,800 Speaker 3: it does bear mentioning. What is it that the day 407 00:19:52,840 --> 00:19:54,920 Speaker 3: after is when the College Football Playoff is going to 408 00:19:54,960 --> 00:19:55,919 Speaker 3: announce their field. 409 00:19:56,320 --> 00:19:57,480 Speaker 4: Look at what we got right. 410 00:19:57,560 --> 00:20:00,880 Speaker 3: Now, there's a golden opportunity here for Texas to make 411 00:20:00,920 --> 00:20:03,160 Speaker 3: a statement, and they're going to want to and they're 412 00:20:03,160 --> 00:20:06,160 Speaker 3: going to need to, right like the PAC twelve title 413 00:20:06,200 --> 00:20:09,680 Speaker 3: game is more or less an eliminator, and then Texas 414 00:20:09,720 --> 00:20:13,840 Speaker 3: they want to lock down or nail down their argument 415 00:20:13,960 --> 00:20:16,320 Speaker 3: over Alabama, which they should have the drum card in 416 00:20:16,359 --> 00:20:19,040 Speaker 3: that thing. But you don't want to have any doubts 417 00:20:19,119 --> 00:20:22,360 Speaker 3: creeping in if you you know, beat Oklahoma State by 418 00:20:22,359 --> 00:20:25,280 Speaker 3: one possession and it doesn't look you know, like it's 419 00:20:25,400 --> 00:20:27,440 Speaker 3: it's like, you know, you sneak by them or whatever. 420 00:20:27,520 --> 00:20:30,399 Speaker 4: It's a close game. Whatnot. They have every incentive in 421 00:20:30,440 --> 00:20:34,360 Speaker 4: the world to crush Oklahoma State. And by the way, 422 00:20:34,640 --> 00:20:38,160 Speaker 4: an argument potentially against Florida State, you know, with Tate 423 00:20:38,240 --> 00:20:41,080 Speaker 4: Rodamaker and all that stuff. What if Florida State beat 424 00:20:41,119 --> 00:20:42,800 Speaker 4: you know, the line of the Florida State game. 425 00:20:42,800 --> 00:20:44,320 Speaker 3: We're going to talk about that one in a second, 426 00:20:44,480 --> 00:20:46,479 Speaker 3: but over Louis Belle, you know, what is it like 427 00:20:46,960 --> 00:20:49,520 Speaker 3: four and a half five something like that close spread? 428 00:20:49,720 --> 00:20:52,280 Speaker 3: What if Florida State wins that game in a super 429 00:20:52,400 --> 00:20:54,960 Speaker 3: uninspiring game and it's you know, they win by like 430 00:20:55,000 --> 00:20:59,919 Speaker 3: a field goal, if Texas comes out and absolutely annihilate 431 00:20:59,920 --> 00:21:03,119 Speaker 3: it's Oklahoma State, you're going to have the public banging 432 00:21:03,200 --> 00:21:05,920 Speaker 3: the table for Texas to be put in over Florida State. 433 00:21:06,240 --> 00:21:08,760 Speaker 3: You want to give that committee everything that you can 434 00:21:09,200 --> 00:21:11,359 Speaker 3: to have the second thoughts about that to try to 435 00:21:11,400 --> 00:21:11,879 Speaker 3: put you in. 436 00:21:11,920 --> 00:21:12,639 Speaker 4: They're gonna do that. 437 00:21:13,160 --> 00:21:15,760 Speaker 2: Style points matter right, and it opened up at eleven 438 00:21:15,800 --> 00:21:18,560 Speaker 2: and a half. It's almost an unbelievable line. 439 00:21:18,640 --> 00:21:21,560 Speaker 1: Almost Thorm Engine did just a tiny bit ago, and 440 00:21:21,600 --> 00:21:24,600 Speaker 1: I would just promote again that he locked in the 441 00:21:24,640 --> 00:21:26,800 Speaker 1: bet on the Betting pros app. Make sure you do 442 00:21:26,880 --> 00:21:29,199 Speaker 1: as well. Go and download the Betting pros app on 443 00:21:29,280 --> 00:21:32,520 Speaker 1: iOS or Android because you can follow your favorite people 444 00:21:32,600 --> 00:21:35,600 Speaker 1: and you can also get notifications when those bets are set. 445 00:21:35,720 --> 00:21:37,480 Speaker 1: Now this didn't matter, but I just would like to 446 00:21:37,520 --> 00:21:41,120 Speaker 1: point out that Thor's hammer last week was James Madison, 447 00:21:41,359 --> 00:21:43,640 Speaker 1: and if you go and look and you see the 448 00:21:43,680 --> 00:21:47,000 Speaker 1: line that he got and then what it was on Saturday, 449 00:21:47,040 --> 00:21:48,919 Speaker 1: you'd be like, oh, I'm sick to my stomach of 450 00:21:48,960 --> 00:21:51,440 Speaker 1: how big of a line difference there was. It didn't 451 00:21:51,480 --> 00:21:53,960 Speaker 1: matter because they blew it out, but you can get 452 00:21:54,000 --> 00:21:57,600 Speaker 1: those notifications if you're following Thor on Betting Pros plus 453 00:21:57,640 --> 00:22:00,800 Speaker 1: you can check a billion other people. You can not 454 00:22:00,840 --> 00:22:03,640 Speaker 1: only follow your favorites, but you can have specific line 455 00:22:03,640 --> 00:22:09,000 Speaker 1: movement and notifications, certain types of bets, props, totals, overs, spreads, 456 00:22:09,040 --> 00:22:12,040 Speaker 1: whatever it is. It's a completely customizable app that you're 457 00:22:12,040 --> 00:22:14,240 Speaker 1: gonna want to check out. So download it today Betting 458 00:22:14,280 --> 00:22:17,600 Speaker 1: Pros on Android or on io. Wes go and do 459 00:22:17,680 --> 00:22:20,880 Speaker 1: that bad boy, all right, jumping back into these games here, 460 00:22:21,040 --> 00:22:24,840 Speaker 1: we're gonna move over to the MAC Championship. Miami, Ohio, 461 00:22:25,040 --> 00:22:27,160 Speaker 1: who's ten and two, seven to one in the MAC, 462 00:22:27,200 --> 00:22:29,760 Speaker 1: going up against Toledo, who is seven and one undefeated 463 00:22:29,840 --> 00:22:32,520 Speaker 1: in the MAC, and Toledo is a seven and a 464 00:22:32,560 --> 00:22:35,399 Speaker 1: half point favorite. So thor seven and a half points? 465 00:22:35,440 --> 00:22:36,800 Speaker 1: Is that going to do it for you? For Toledo? 466 00:22:36,840 --> 00:22:38,199 Speaker 1: What do you like in the MAC Championship? 467 00:22:38,560 --> 00:22:38,760 Speaker 4: Yeah? 468 00:22:38,800 --> 00:22:40,840 Speaker 3: These are to me, these are teams that are in 469 00:22:41,200 --> 00:22:44,520 Speaker 3: two different classes here, two different way classes. Ever since 470 00:22:45,000 --> 00:22:47,399 Speaker 3: Gaber went down for this season, now Miami got to 471 00:22:47,400 --> 00:22:50,879 Speaker 3: play a different way. The line though, is more or 472 00:22:50,960 --> 00:22:54,560 Speaker 3: less fair being over a touchdown my lines around there, 473 00:22:54,960 --> 00:22:57,119 Speaker 3: But I don't know if I'm gonna be able to 474 00:22:57,160 --> 00:22:59,680 Speaker 3: take it with Miami of Ohio. They have been able 475 00:22:59,720 --> 00:23:03,840 Speaker 3: to I'll give the Chuck Martin credit. I do like 476 00:23:03,920 --> 00:23:07,520 Speaker 3: Chuck Martin their veteran calls. He's able to keep the 477 00:23:07,600 --> 00:23:10,560 Speaker 3: games closer, which would be a data point obviously with 478 00:23:10,680 --> 00:23:14,479 Speaker 3: where the line is, but qualitatively, again it's a fair line. 479 00:23:14,640 --> 00:23:17,440 Speaker 3: The kid that they've got playing quarterback is Avion Smith. 480 00:23:17,480 --> 00:23:19,879 Speaker 3: Get We've seen him plenty over the last couple of 481 00:23:19,920 --> 00:23:23,080 Speaker 3: years because Gabert gets injured all the time. And what 482 00:23:23,160 --> 00:23:27,000 Speaker 3: the offense devolves into when Avion Smith comes in, he 483 00:23:27,080 --> 00:23:30,520 Speaker 3: just scrambles around and then they have like six different 484 00:23:30,600 --> 00:23:32,720 Speaker 3: running backs. You know, it's like, you know, one guy 485 00:23:32,720 --> 00:23:34,560 Speaker 3: gets a carry, then he runs off the field. Another 486 00:23:34,600 --> 00:23:37,080 Speaker 3: one comes in and they do it like that. The 487 00:23:37,200 --> 00:23:41,120 Speaker 3: receivers aren't you know, great or whatever. It's just sort 488 00:23:41,119 --> 00:23:43,000 Speaker 3: of a whole hum kind of offense. And then they 489 00:23:43,000 --> 00:23:45,240 Speaker 3: try to play the field position game and play salty 490 00:23:45,320 --> 00:23:50,160 Speaker 3: defense whatnot. On Saturday, they snuck by Ball States seventeen 491 00:23:50,200 --> 00:23:52,720 Speaker 3: to fifteen. And now you're playing the team that's the 492 00:23:52,760 --> 00:23:56,840 Speaker 3: class of the mac. Then again, I Toledo has more 493 00:23:56,920 --> 00:24:01,160 Speaker 3: talent than they've they've how do you say they haven't 494 00:24:01,160 --> 00:24:05,160 Speaker 3: been winning as impressively over this procession of awful teams 495 00:24:05,200 --> 00:24:07,719 Speaker 3: in the MAC, the MAC which just got picked apart 496 00:24:07,760 --> 00:24:10,840 Speaker 3: by all the vultures in the transfer portal last offseason. 497 00:24:11,200 --> 00:24:13,320 Speaker 3: Toledo was the one team that sort of avoided that. 498 00:24:13,640 --> 00:24:15,879 Speaker 3: Toledo had most of their guys back. They should have 499 00:24:16,000 --> 00:24:18,920 Speaker 3: just been eviscerating all these teams they played, but they've 500 00:24:18,960 --> 00:24:21,479 Speaker 3: been playing some of these teams closer. So I realized 501 00:24:21,520 --> 00:24:24,200 Speaker 3: that I just talked myself in an entire three to 502 00:24:24,280 --> 00:24:27,120 Speaker 3: sixty on this handicap. I'm gonna be getting deeper into 503 00:24:27,200 --> 00:24:30,760 Speaker 3: this one this week because Miamia, Ohio is the team 504 00:24:30,800 --> 00:24:33,560 Speaker 3: I respect, but I just wonder if they have the 505 00:24:33,680 --> 00:24:37,560 Speaker 3: ammunition to stay in this one, whereas Toledo's the team 506 00:24:37,560 --> 00:24:40,520 Speaker 3: where I like their talent a lot more I don't 507 00:24:40,600 --> 00:24:42,439 Speaker 3: like their coach. And by the way, the last thing 508 00:24:42,440 --> 00:24:45,679 Speaker 3: I'm gonna say about this, all these jobs have opened up. 509 00:24:45,680 --> 00:24:47,359 Speaker 3: We talked about that at the top of the show. 510 00:24:47,520 --> 00:24:50,160 Speaker 3: You're already starting to hear Jason Kandell's name toss out 511 00:24:50,160 --> 00:24:52,240 Speaker 3: for some of these things. If a Power five team 512 00:24:52,320 --> 00:24:55,480 Speaker 3: hires Jason Kandell, they will be setting their program back 513 00:24:55,520 --> 00:24:56,680 Speaker 3: a minimum five years. 514 00:24:56,680 --> 00:24:58,200 Speaker 4: That guy is not a good coach. 515 00:24:59,359 --> 00:25:01,679 Speaker 1: We have not seen a whole lot of movement in 516 00:25:01,720 --> 00:25:04,199 Speaker 1: this game. And the total opened up at forty six 517 00:25:04,280 --> 00:25:06,280 Speaker 1: and a half and the total is forty six and 518 00:25:06,320 --> 00:25:08,080 Speaker 1: a half, So I'm not sure this game is really 519 00:25:08,119 --> 00:25:09,760 Speaker 1: getting touched a whole bunch. Is there anything that you 520 00:25:09,880 --> 00:25:11,760 Speaker 1: like out of this tledo seven and a half forty 521 00:25:11,800 --> 00:25:13,240 Speaker 1: six and a half on the total. 522 00:25:13,840 --> 00:25:16,440 Speaker 2: Thor it seems to me like you've been living life 523 00:25:16,760 --> 00:25:20,680 Speaker 2: like Jason Kandall and the Wind. Yeah, when it comes 524 00:25:20,760 --> 00:25:24,159 Speaker 2: to Miami, nasty defense. That's what they want to do. 525 00:25:24,200 --> 00:25:27,439 Speaker 2: As you mentioned, tenth versus the run, twenty third in 526 00:25:27,480 --> 00:25:30,640 Speaker 2: passing performance twenty eighth, and EPA per play. They're only 527 00:25:30,640 --> 00:25:35,600 Speaker 2: giving up seventeen a game. But what it's all because 528 00:25:35,680 --> 00:25:39,320 Speaker 2: they're one hundred and thirty third in pace call a 529 00:25:39,400 --> 00:25:42,919 Speaker 2: play every thirty one and a half seconds. That is 530 00:25:43,160 --> 00:25:46,320 Speaker 2: dead last in the entire country. And you know, it's 531 00:25:46,320 --> 00:25:48,840 Speaker 2: pretty to say why you have a run based offense 532 00:25:48,880 --> 00:25:53,000 Speaker 2: with Avion Smith. They'll essentially you just do the run, run, run, 533 00:25:53,000 --> 00:25:56,240 Speaker 2: and then they'll toss one downfield in a one on 534 00:25:56,240 --> 00:25:59,600 Speaker 2: one matchup and try to, you know, make something happen. 535 00:25:59,680 --> 00:26:03,000 Speaker 2: But they're kind of built on explosiveness to move the ball, 536 00:26:03,359 --> 00:26:05,399 Speaker 2: but on a down and down basis thirty eight percent 537 00:26:05,400 --> 00:26:07,440 Speaker 2: success rate, one hundred and twelfth in the country. 538 00:26:07,760 --> 00:26:09,360 Speaker 5: It's brutal and they're. 539 00:26:09,160 --> 00:26:14,560 Speaker 2: Playing it is just like a well oiled Toledo Machines. 540 00:26:14,600 --> 00:26:20,159 Speaker 2: The balanced offense fourteenth in EPA, forty seventh percent success rate, that's, 541 00:26:20,600 --> 00:26:22,600 Speaker 2: you know, one of the top ten in the country. 542 00:26:23,480 --> 00:26:26,200 Speaker 2: Twelfth against the pass, they have Kenyan Mitchell. We have 543 00:26:26,520 --> 00:26:30,480 Speaker 2: arguably the best defender in the entire G five playing 544 00:26:30,560 --> 00:26:34,760 Speaker 2: quarterback for them, cornerback. They've only had one game with 545 00:26:34,840 --> 00:26:37,760 Speaker 2: a sub seventy five percent win expectancy and that was 546 00:26:37,800 --> 00:26:41,200 Speaker 2: Week one against Illinois, a Big ten team. They went 547 00:26:41,240 --> 00:26:45,359 Speaker 2: on to just absolutely destroy every other team in the MAC. 548 00:26:45,560 --> 00:26:49,439 Speaker 2: So it's it's really hard to pick against Toledo. And 549 00:26:49,480 --> 00:26:51,639 Speaker 2: I do lean a little bit under where in the 550 00:26:51,680 --> 00:26:56,200 Speaker 2: mid forties or so where this is currently liigned, because 551 00:26:56,240 --> 00:26:57,960 Speaker 2: I just don't think Miami is going to be able 552 00:26:57,960 --> 00:27:00,720 Speaker 2: to do much, you know, like not gonna be able 553 00:27:00,720 --> 00:27:02,200 Speaker 2: to throw on them. I don't know what they think 554 00:27:02,200 --> 00:27:04,399 Speaker 2: they're gonna do. And if you're gonna be one dimensional 555 00:27:04,440 --> 00:27:07,840 Speaker 2: and just try to run essentially the veer, well good 556 00:27:08,000 --> 00:27:10,240 Speaker 2: luck with that, so I kind of like Toledo in 557 00:27:10,240 --> 00:27:11,120 Speaker 2: the under So. 558 00:27:11,119 --> 00:27:14,359 Speaker 4: Then sorry the game where they played before that. 559 00:27:14,520 --> 00:27:17,320 Speaker 3: You know, we have a couple of rematches this week 560 00:27:17,359 --> 00:27:22,119 Speaker 3: and this one they played October twenty first, Toledo and 561 00:27:22,160 --> 00:27:25,840 Speaker 3: Miami and the game was in Oxford. Toledo won twenty 562 00:27:25,880 --> 00:27:28,000 Speaker 3: one to seventeen. That was the game where Gabrit got 563 00:27:28,040 --> 00:27:31,000 Speaker 3: injured and pretty sure Avion Smith came in at the end, 564 00:27:31,000 --> 00:27:33,840 Speaker 3: but Gabert played most of that one. Toledo ends up 565 00:27:33,840 --> 00:27:36,320 Speaker 3: winning twenty one to seventeen in that one, so they 566 00:27:36,359 --> 00:27:39,520 Speaker 3: were able to keep a closer but again Smith couldn't 567 00:27:39,520 --> 00:27:41,920 Speaker 3: play the full on this time. So this is where 568 00:27:41,960 --> 00:27:46,160 Speaker 3: you're gonna get the full Chuck Martin experience of what 569 00:27:46,240 --> 00:27:47,600 Speaker 3: Broton's talking about about. 570 00:27:47,600 --> 00:27:49,120 Speaker 4: To grind it out and. 571 00:27:50,640 --> 00:27:54,400 Speaker 3: Between plays for Miami, you can go to the bathroom, 572 00:27:54,640 --> 00:27:57,880 Speaker 3: do your taxes, cook dinner, and put the children into bed, 573 00:27:57,960 --> 00:28:01,120 Speaker 3: and you'll be there for the next play. I mean, 574 00:28:01,119 --> 00:28:03,040 Speaker 3: that's that's the way that they play. And they want 575 00:28:03,080 --> 00:28:05,760 Speaker 3: to get three yards per play, and we're just gonna 576 00:28:05,800 --> 00:28:08,560 Speaker 3: move ever so close closer to the sticks, you know, 577 00:28:08,600 --> 00:28:10,680 Speaker 3: I mean, that's that's the way it goes. Can they 578 00:28:10,760 --> 00:28:13,280 Speaker 3: can they grind it out. That's what the handicap is. 579 00:28:14,080 --> 00:28:15,720 Speaker 1: We might be able to speed a little bit through 580 00:28:15,760 --> 00:28:19,359 Speaker 1: this one going over to the Mountain West Championship game 581 00:28:19,640 --> 00:28:21,879 Speaker 1: because we're still trying to get information on this. I 582 00:28:21,880 --> 00:28:23,600 Speaker 1: think this one just kind of got locked in Boise 583 00:28:23,720 --> 00:28:26,400 Speaker 1: State going up against UNLV Boise State seven and five, 584 00:28:26,480 --> 00:28:29,600 Speaker 1: six and two in the Mountain West, UNLV nine and three, 585 00:28:29,680 --> 00:28:32,040 Speaker 1: six and two in the Mountain West, and we were 586 00:28:32,080 --> 00:28:34,560 Speaker 1: able to snatch a line Boise State three and a 587 00:28:34,600 --> 00:28:36,840 Speaker 1: half as a current favorite. I don't have a total line. 588 00:28:36,880 --> 00:28:39,640 Speaker 1: This hasn't dropped up on on betting pros yet, but 589 00:28:39,920 --> 00:28:42,520 Speaker 1: this is one of our our quick early ones here, 590 00:28:42,560 --> 00:28:44,400 Speaker 1: so maybe there's a speed through. Here's anything you like 591 00:28:44,440 --> 00:28:45,160 Speaker 1: out of this one? 592 00:28:45,760 --> 00:28:46,000 Speaker 5: Four? 593 00:28:47,440 --> 00:28:47,680 Speaker 4: Yeah? 594 00:28:47,720 --> 00:28:50,800 Speaker 3: Well yeah, this is one that wasn't decided on the field. 595 00:28:50,800 --> 00:28:54,400 Speaker 3: It was decided in the gigabytes by the computers, by 596 00:28:54,200 --> 00:28:57,280 Speaker 3: the computer rankings. It's like a hearkening back to the 597 00:28:57,360 --> 00:28:59,800 Speaker 3: BCS days. You almost get a nostalgic. You know, the 598 00:29:00,160 --> 00:29:02,360 Speaker 3: kids out there watchers, they don't remember what that was like, 599 00:29:02,720 --> 00:29:04,920 Speaker 3: you know, getting the computer rankings and everything like that. 600 00:29:05,000 --> 00:29:07,880 Speaker 3: But good for the Mountain West for kicking it back 601 00:29:07,920 --> 00:29:11,520 Speaker 3: to that. We had a three way tie that you 602 00:29:11,560 --> 00:29:14,360 Speaker 3: know again decided this morning that was forced yesterday by 603 00:29:14,400 --> 00:29:19,080 Speaker 3: San Jose State upsetting UNLV. UNLV had the best computer 604 00:29:19,160 --> 00:29:21,800 Speaker 3: ranking that one. We knew that the question came down 605 00:29:21,840 --> 00:29:25,440 Speaker 3: to San Jose State against Boise. Boise ends up edging 606 00:29:25,440 --> 00:29:27,920 Speaker 3: them out a little bit, and Boise State is a 607 00:29:28,000 --> 00:29:32,080 Speaker 3: really this one sort of the tail of two opposite 608 00:29:32,080 --> 00:29:35,120 Speaker 3: teams coming into this. UNLV was a team that no 609 00:29:35,160 --> 00:29:37,480 Speaker 3: one believed in coming into the year. They fired their 610 00:29:37,520 --> 00:29:40,280 Speaker 3: staff before nobody thought they were any good. They hired 611 00:29:40,320 --> 00:29:44,160 Speaker 3: Barry Otam, you know, the longtime defensive coordinator, and he'd 612 00:29:44,160 --> 00:29:46,800 Speaker 3: been an SEC called for a little bit, failed, was fired, 613 00:29:47,080 --> 00:29:49,680 Speaker 3: and then he had hired Brenn and Marion after he 614 00:29:49,760 --> 00:29:53,760 Speaker 3: tried to hire Bobby Petrino. Patrino accepted the offensive coordinator job, 615 00:29:53,880 --> 00:29:56,240 Speaker 3: left two days later three days later because Texas A 616 00:29:56,280 --> 00:29:58,720 Speaker 3: and M hired him the job. Then, so then they 617 00:29:58,800 --> 00:30:01,360 Speaker 3: hired brend and Marriott, who it's been an absolute revelation 618 00:30:01,640 --> 00:30:04,520 Speaker 3: is going to get offers for bigger ROC jobs, maybe 619 00:30:04,520 --> 00:30:05,680 Speaker 3: even a head coaching job. 620 00:30:05,920 --> 00:30:07,200 Speaker 4: San Diego State will. 621 00:30:07,040 --> 00:30:09,080 Speaker 5: Be getting one. Yeah. Yeah, it's been really good to 622 00:30:09,400 --> 00:30:10,720 Speaker 5: a big job, he's gone. 623 00:30:10,840 --> 00:30:11,080 Speaker 4: Yeah. 624 00:30:11,200 --> 00:30:15,160 Speaker 3: Brandon Marian has this offense he invented from scratch called 625 00:30:15,160 --> 00:30:17,120 Speaker 3: the Go Go offense, which is so fun to watch, 626 00:30:17,160 --> 00:30:19,200 Speaker 3: so people need to tune into this. He has two 627 00:30:19,280 --> 00:30:21,240 Speaker 3: running backs in the backfield with the quarterback not a 628 00:30:21,320 --> 00:30:23,040 Speaker 3: running back in a fall back, two running backs and 629 00:30:23,080 --> 00:30:26,200 Speaker 3: they do all this misdirection stuff and it's very fun. 630 00:30:26,560 --> 00:30:30,240 Speaker 3: But they exceeded expectations in a crazy way. But then 631 00:30:30,280 --> 00:30:34,360 Speaker 3: they got upset last week by San Jose State. Boise 632 00:30:34,440 --> 00:30:36,680 Speaker 3: State is the opposite. They did a whole bunch of 633 00:30:36,720 --> 00:30:39,800 Speaker 3: dopey stuff over the offseason. The biggest one was hiring 634 00:30:39,840 --> 00:30:42,560 Speaker 3: Bush Hamden, who doesn't know is you know what from 635 00:30:42,600 --> 00:30:45,640 Speaker 3: a hole in the ground. Bush Hampden decided to neuter 636 00:30:46,080 --> 00:30:48,120 Speaker 3: Teylon Green, who was one of the best players on 637 00:30:48,160 --> 00:30:51,120 Speaker 3: the roster, by telling this dual threat kid from Texas, 638 00:30:51,120 --> 00:30:54,040 Speaker 3: Taylon Green, you can't leave the pocket anymore. So all 639 00:30:54,040 --> 00:30:57,200 Speaker 3: of a sudden, his game went away. He wasn't viable anymore, 640 00:30:57,360 --> 00:31:00,320 Speaker 3: not the best thrower yet. So then they started playing 641 00:31:00,360 --> 00:31:04,040 Speaker 3: this backup Maddix Madsen or whatever, who's just a mediocre, 642 00:31:04,320 --> 00:31:06,200 Speaker 3: you know, like a run of the mill kind of kid. 643 00:31:06,440 --> 00:31:09,760 Speaker 3: Boise State played way down. It costs Andy Avolos's job, 644 00:31:10,080 --> 00:31:12,400 Speaker 3: and just when it seemed like the building was coming 645 00:31:12,480 --> 00:31:14,880 Speaker 3: down and everything and all these guys where there's all 646 00:31:14,920 --> 00:31:17,440 Speaker 3: these rumors about everyone entering the portal and everyone is 647 00:31:17,440 --> 00:31:19,320 Speaker 3: going to leave. Will they even reached the end of 648 00:31:19,320 --> 00:31:22,520 Speaker 3: the season, They're gonna be a mass mutiny. Boise State 649 00:31:22,640 --> 00:31:26,200 Speaker 3: fires Avalos maybe to even keep the roster together for 650 00:31:26,240 --> 00:31:29,560 Speaker 3: the last two games. Maddox Madson gets injured in the 651 00:31:29,600 --> 00:31:32,360 Speaker 3: third to last game, which allows Teylon Green to take 652 00:31:32,440 --> 00:31:35,560 Speaker 3: back over the job. You know, in the immediate aftermath 653 00:31:35,640 --> 00:31:38,800 Speaker 3: of Avalos getting fired, Taylon Green now has led them 654 00:31:38,800 --> 00:31:41,920 Speaker 3: to two straight wins. That was in conjunction with Aston 655 00:31:42,040 --> 00:31:44,720 Speaker 3: Jeans coming back from injury. So they have now gen 656 00:31:44,760 --> 00:31:48,240 Speaker 3: T and Holani the best backfield in the G five 657 00:31:48,480 --> 00:31:51,680 Speaker 3: with Teylon Green back, and they've let Teylon Green start 658 00:31:51,720 --> 00:31:54,600 Speaker 3: to do Teylon Green things again. Boise State wins the 659 00:31:54,640 --> 00:31:58,000 Speaker 3: last two games, and because of all this craziness, including 660 00:31:58,080 --> 00:32:01,840 Speaker 3: air Force going into the absolute tank, Fresno State goes 661 00:32:01,880 --> 00:32:02,440 Speaker 3: into the tank. 662 00:32:02,800 --> 00:32:04,680 Speaker 4: Boise State somehow. 663 00:32:04,280 --> 00:32:07,560 Speaker 3: Forces this tie and they edge past San Jose State 664 00:32:07,600 --> 00:32:10,479 Speaker 3: to get into this game. Boise State has all the 665 00:32:10,480 --> 00:32:14,000 Speaker 3: momentum in the world now with like just sneaking up 666 00:32:14,000 --> 00:32:17,160 Speaker 3: into this game, this could be an ambush spot. 667 00:32:17,000 --> 00:32:19,080 Speaker 4: Like in this crazy sort of way. 668 00:32:19,080 --> 00:32:22,000 Speaker 3: This overlooked Boise State team that is playing way better 669 00:32:22,040 --> 00:32:24,200 Speaker 3: I think than people think because they were left for 670 00:32:24,320 --> 00:32:26,640 Speaker 3: dead a long time ago. You and LV better not 671 00:32:26,720 --> 00:32:29,120 Speaker 3: overlook them. You wouldn't think they would, but it looks 672 00:32:29,120 --> 00:32:32,360 Speaker 3: like they overlook San Jose State last week. I might 673 00:32:32,400 --> 00:32:34,680 Speaker 3: be leaning Boise State in this one, just because they've 674 00:32:34,680 --> 00:32:38,040 Speaker 3: been playing so well in recent weeks. The resurgent zombie 675 00:32:38,240 --> 00:32:40,640 Speaker 3: Boise State Broncos Turton. 676 00:32:40,640 --> 00:32:43,000 Speaker 1: Where's your lean on this bad boy three and a 677 00:32:43,040 --> 00:32:46,440 Speaker 1: half on Boise State? Are you are using this optimistic 678 00:32:46,480 --> 00:32:48,320 Speaker 1: and right in that wave? Is Thori's? 679 00:32:49,080 --> 00:32:49,320 Speaker 5: Yeah? 680 00:32:49,320 --> 00:32:51,880 Speaker 2: Well, I mean, my gosh, this Boise State team, as 681 00:32:51,920 --> 00:32:55,600 Speaker 2: you talked about all the tumult going on within the program, 682 00:32:55,720 --> 00:32:59,360 Speaker 2: but the offense legit ninth in rushing. This is what 683 00:32:59,400 --> 00:33:02,760 Speaker 2: they do. Owen Green dual threat quarterback. You have the 684 00:33:02,840 --> 00:33:07,560 Speaker 2: dual threat running backs Joe Shilani Ashton genty I'm twenty 685 00:33:07,600 --> 00:33:11,200 Speaker 2: third and success rate and EPA nineteenth and yards for play. 686 00:33:11,280 --> 00:33:15,240 Speaker 2: I mean this is this is a legitimate, powerful offense 687 00:33:15,320 --> 00:33:17,560 Speaker 2: that I think can impose their will on you know, 688 00:33:18,240 --> 00:33:20,920 Speaker 2: a pretty stock in trade UNLB defense. That's not what 689 00:33:20,960 --> 00:33:24,160 Speaker 2: they do particularly well, as Door mentioned. But on the 690 00:33:24,200 --> 00:33:27,760 Speaker 2: other side, you know, with Boise State, their defense which 691 00:33:27,800 --> 00:33:30,720 Speaker 2: has always been a hallmark of the Broncos. They always 692 00:33:30,760 --> 00:33:34,680 Speaker 2: have a stout dy you know, linebackers getting drafted. You 693 00:33:34,680 --> 00:33:39,680 Speaker 2: know last year had you know, multiple draftees. J. L. 694 00:33:39,800 --> 00:33:44,760 Speaker 2: Skinner was a in the secondary, he got drafted. So 695 00:33:45,080 --> 00:33:49,360 Speaker 2: in terms of Scott Mattlock defensive tackle, this has always 696 00:33:49,360 --> 00:33:52,320 Speaker 2: been a great defense. They stink this year. They're eighty 697 00:33:52,440 --> 00:33:55,200 Speaker 2: ninth against the past, seventy ninth versus the run. In 698 00:33:55,280 --> 00:33:57,480 Speaker 2: terms especially against the pass, and this is you know, 699 00:33:57,480 --> 00:34:00,440 Speaker 2: playing right into the UNLV's hands. Eight and a half 700 00:34:00,840 --> 00:34:03,520 Speaker 2: yards per pass allowed. That's one hundred and twenty fourth 701 00:34:03,600 --> 00:34:06,440 Speaker 2: in the country, one hundred and fifteenth in yards per 702 00:34:06,480 --> 00:34:07,600 Speaker 2: play in general. 703 00:34:08,040 --> 00:34:09,680 Speaker 5: I mean, I. 704 00:34:09,640 --> 00:34:13,000 Speaker 2: Don't see either team really being able to stop each other. 705 00:34:13,080 --> 00:34:15,520 Speaker 2: As you mentioned, you got Brendan Marion. They have the 706 00:34:15,640 --> 00:34:18,480 Speaker 2: ninth ranked pass offense in the country. With the go 707 00:34:18,480 --> 00:34:21,680 Speaker 2: go offense, I don't think Boise State's gonna be able 708 00:34:21,719 --> 00:34:24,759 Speaker 2: to stop UNLV through the air. I don't think UMV is 709 00:34:24,760 --> 00:34:27,080 Speaker 2: gonna be able to stop Bowsey State on the ground, 710 00:34:27,360 --> 00:34:30,160 Speaker 2: and I think you're getting an over here around that 711 00:34:30,239 --> 00:34:32,279 Speaker 2: fifty six and a half or so mark, depending on 712 00:34:32,280 --> 00:34:33,280 Speaker 2: where it is at the moment. 713 00:34:33,360 --> 00:34:35,399 Speaker 4: I agree with that. It's a sneaky one too, because 714 00:34:35,400 --> 00:34:37,319 Speaker 4: these are run for his teams. But I agree with 715 00:34:37,320 --> 00:34:38,800 Speaker 4: that take beautiful. 716 00:34:38,840 --> 00:34:41,880 Speaker 1: Going over to the SEC, here's a big game. You 717 00:34:41,960 --> 00:34:45,440 Speaker 1: tease this a little bit earlier for Georgia undefeated across 718 00:34:45,440 --> 00:34:48,719 Speaker 1: the board versus Alabama, who's eleven to one but undefeated 719 00:34:48,760 --> 00:34:52,120 Speaker 1: in the SEC. Georgia is a four and a half 720 00:34:52,160 --> 00:34:55,560 Speaker 1: point favorite. Are total opened at fifty six. It's sitting 721 00:34:55,600 --> 00:34:58,680 Speaker 1: around best line fifty five under if you want to 722 00:34:58,680 --> 00:35:00,440 Speaker 1: play at fifty six and a half, So that has 723 00:35:00,520 --> 00:35:04,880 Speaker 1: kind of maintained for Georgia Alabama. This is going to 724 00:35:04,960 --> 00:35:09,239 Speaker 1: be a highly desired bet game. What side do you plan? 725 00:35:10,040 --> 00:35:12,480 Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm hoping that we get some more bets on 726 00:35:12,520 --> 00:35:15,600 Speaker 3: Alabama because I would like to back Georgia and lay it. 727 00:35:15,719 --> 00:35:17,920 Speaker 3: But this line is right around where mine is. My 728 00:35:18,000 --> 00:35:20,840 Speaker 3: system's line of this game is Georgia four point seven, 729 00:35:21,360 --> 00:35:24,759 Speaker 3: So we're right around where I'm at with it. I'm 730 00:35:24,760 --> 00:35:27,520 Speaker 3: not the we talked about this all season long. I'm 731 00:35:27,520 --> 00:35:31,920 Speaker 3: not a believer in Alabama. I cannot believe that I 732 00:35:33,520 --> 00:35:36,040 Speaker 3: was sitting there last night. How many times in my 733 00:35:36,200 --> 00:35:39,879 Speaker 3: head that I had cashed my under eleven Alabama win 734 00:35:39,960 --> 00:35:42,600 Speaker 3: total ticket. I probably did that like four or five 735 00:35:42,640 --> 00:35:45,360 Speaker 3: different times this season, and every single time that they 736 00:35:45,480 --> 00:35:47,680 Speaker 3: pulled the game out of there, you know what. You know, 737 00:35:47,719 --> 00:35:50,160 Speaker 3: obviously they lost the game to Texas earlier this year. 738 00:35:50,320 --> 00:35:52,560 Speaker 3: There's so many times it was like week after week 739 00:35:52,600 --> 00:35:54,200 Speaker 3: they were on a precipice of a loss. 740 00:35:54,600 --> 00:35:56,840 Speaker 4: The Auburn game that was a loss. 741 00:35:56,920 --> 00:35:59,120 Speaker 3: That game was over, you know, like I was already 742 00:35:59,120 --> 00:36:02,359 Speaker 3: counting my winnings on that day, and I had to 743 00:36:02,520 --> 00:36:05,680 Speaker 3: watch the replay of that fourth and a mile to 744 00:36:05,840 --> 00:36:10,200 Speaker 3: see exactly how Alabama when Auburn dropped eight guys, because 745 00:36:10,200 --> 00:36:13,480 Speaker 3: that's what ended up happening, how rush too, rush two guys, 746 00:36:14,040 --> 00:36:16,880 Speaker 3: rush too? But there was one guy that was the 747 00:36:16,920 --> 00:36:18,680 Speaker 3: one guy was like in no man's land. It's like, 748 00:36:18,680 --> 00:36:20,920 Speaker 3: why are you spying Milrall whin. He's not gonna run 749 00:36:21,000 --> 00:36:23,200 Speaker 3: thirty yards? Just put that eight guys on the goal 750 00:36:23,239 --> 00:36:25,440 Speaker 3: and whatever. But how did they get one dude in 751 00:36:25,480 --> 00:36:27,640 Speaker 3: the back corner? Of the end zone one on one. 752 00:36:27,800 --> 00:36:30,040 Speaker 3: I didn't get it right. It's like a math thing, 753 00:36:30,120 --> 00:36:32,799 Speaker 3: like how did that even happen? So I watched back 754 00:36:32,880 --> 00:36:35,640 Speaker 3: and Alabama did his crosser stuff, and then there was 755 00:36:35,680 --> 00:36:39,279 Speaker 3: like six Auburn defensive backs that were like congregated by 756 00:36:39,320 --> 00:36:41,960 Speaker 3: the goal posts. You were just like hanging out and 757 00:36:42,080 --> 00:36:44,879 Speaker 3: chatting and just watching Bond, you know, go one on 758 00:36:44,880 --> 00:36:45,640 Speaker 3: one with this other. 759 00:36:45,760 --> 00:36:47,160 Speaker 4: Poor stap who was. 760 00:36:47,120 --> 00:36:49,239 Speaker 3: Like, oh no, I'm about to be on posters and 761 00:36:49,520 --> 00:36:51,760 Speaker 3: hated by Aubert's fan base the rest of my life. 762 00:36:52,000 --> 00:36:52,560 Speaker 4: Poor kid. 763 00:36:53,120 --> 00:36:55,719 Speaker 3: And Alabama pulls out another one. They're not going to 764 00:36:55,800 --> 00:36:58,920 Speaker 3: be so lucky this week. Georgia, we talked about the Jeordia, 765 00:36:59,040 --> 00:37:02,480 Speaker 3: that death star, that Michigan death star. They are on 766 00:37:02,520 --> 00:37:05,800 Speaker 3: the inevitable crash course to meet each other. Alabama's not 767 00:37:05,840 --> 00:37:07,799 Speaker 3: going to do anything in this game to stop that. 768 00:37:08,239 --> 00:37:11,920 Speaker 3: Georgia used last week as a de facto bye week, 769 00:37:12,680 --> 00:37:15,239 Speaker 3: and you know their win over Georgia Tech people who 770 00:37:15,400 --> 00:37:17,480 Speaker 3: just casually look at the box score that didn't watch 771 00:37:17,520 --> 00:37:20,200 Speaker 3: that game, they're probably like, oh, you know, Georgia also 772 00:37:20,360 --> 00:37:23,480 Speaker 3: just barely got by, you know, a mediocre opponent that's 773 00:37:23,520 --> 00:37:26,719 Speaker 3: around as good as Auburn did without realizing the context. 774 00:37:27,160 --> 00:37:30,120 Speaker 3: Georgia did not play a whole bunch of guys that were, 775 00:37:30,560 --> 00:37:33,359 Speaker 3: you know, maybe ninety five percent or ninety percent right, 776 00:37:33,440 --> 00:37:35,640 Speaker 3: like Brock Bowers, who had missed, you know, the three 777 00:37:35,719 --> 00:37:38,000 Speaker 3: four games before that. They brought him back to make 778 00:37:38,040 --> 00:37:40,080 Speaker 3: sure he was healthy, but then they sat him the 779 00:37:40,160 --> 00:37:42,680 Speaker 3: last game. You want him ready for Alabama. They sat 780 00:37:42,840 --> 00:37:45,719 Speaker 3: Lab McConkey because his ankle wasn't one hundred percent. They 781 00:37:45,760 --> 00:37:50,360 Speaker 3: sat ro Rod Thomas, they sat Tate Rutledge. Wasn't the 782 00:37:50,360 --> 00:37:52,719 Speaker 3: only guys they said, because they knew they were going 783 00:37:52,760 --> 00:37:55,239 Speaker 3: to be Georgia tech anyway. George is going to be 784 00:37:55,239 --> 00:37:58,200 Speaker 3: one hundred percent healthy in this one, whereas Alabama just 785 00:37:58,239 --> 00:38:00,719 Speaker 3: got out of this rock them sock them. Rocke is 786 00:38:00,800 --> 00:38:03,680 Speaker 3: thing they're they're putting there, you know, oh the grave 787 00:38:03,800 --> 00:38:05,560 Speaker 3: digger in all this nonsense. 788 00:38:05,560 --> 00:38:07,359 Speaker 4: They're crowning themselves after this game. 789 00:38:07,400 --> 00:38:10,520 Speaker 3: They pulled out of their butt because Auburn's defensive backs 790 00:38:10,520 --> 00:38:13,040 Speaker 3: don't know how to play the prevent defense on fourth 791 00:38:13,080 --> 00:38:13,520 Speaker 3: and a mile. 792 00:38:14,200 --> 00:38:16,239 Speaker 4: This one's Georgia all the way. I'm just waiting for 793 00:38:16,280 --> 00:38:16,680 Speaker 4: the line. 794 00:38:16,719 --> 00:38:18,080 Speaker 3: So this this isn't going to be a bet for 795 00:38:18,160 --> 00:38:20,239 Speaker 3: me today, I'm hoping that I can get this thing 796 00:38:20,280 --> 00:38:22,399 Speaker 3: at four three and a half would be a dream. 797 00:38:22,440 --> 00:38:24,480 Speaker 3: I highly doubt that the market's going to be that 798 00:38:24,600 --> 00:38:26,719 Speaker 3: generous to me, But I'm waiting for the line on. 799 00:38:26,680 --> 00:38:29,319 Speaker 1: This one, Proton. Is there anything you're waiting for or 800 00:38:29,360 --> 00:38:32,160 Speaker 1: anything that you want to hit today in this Georgia 801 00:38:32,200 --> 00:38:33,080 Speaker 1: Alabama matchup? 802 00:38:34,000 --> 00:38:37,279 Speaker 2: Well, like Thorp said, you know, Georgia just absolutely ran 803 00:38:37,360 --> 00:38:40,600 Speaker 2: over Georgia Tech this past weekend two hundred and sixty 804 00:38:40,640 --> 00:38:44,319 Speaker 2: two yards average, six point seven yards for carry, and schematically, 805 00:38:44,840 --> 00:38:48,600 Speaker 2: they only threw twenty passes to thirty nine runs. If 806 00:38:48,600 --> 00:38:51,480 Speaker 2: you look at literally every single other game that George's 807 00:38:51,480 --> 00:38:55,360 Speaker 2: played that they the minimum was twenty five passes that 808 00:38:55,400 --> 00:38:58,840 Speaker 2: you saw from Carson Beck. So, I mean, just that's 809 00:38:58,960 --> 00:39:01,919 Speaker 2: all they cared about doing. It was their fewest. I mean, 810 00:39:02,960 --> 00:39:05,000 Speaker 2: they were just there to run over at Georgia Tech 811 00:39:05,320 --> 00:39:13,600 Speaker 2: and go. As discussed, Bama just looked absolutely terrible against Auburn. 812 00:39:13,760 --> 00:39:16,080 Speaker 2: I mean just I don't know what you really want there, 813 00:39:16,320 --> 00:39:19,960 Speaker 2: and they got everything that went their way three turnovers, 814 00:39:21,360 --> 00:39:23,640 Speaker 2: forty four to twenty four run pass They were able 815 00:39:23,640 --> 00:39:26,280 Speaker 2: to run the ball, you know, to a pretty decent 816 00:39:26,320 --> 00:39:29,000 Speaker 2: extent to on Auburn, Like you are they going to 817 00:39:29,040 --> 00:39:31,280 Speaker 2: be able to run the ball against Georgia. I really 818 00:39:31,360 --> 00:39:34,759 Speaker 2: don't think so. You know, So this is going back 819 00:39:34,800 --> 00:39:38,960 Speaker 2: to the Nick saving teams where you had Derrick Henry, 820 00:39:39,239 --> 00:39:41,880 Speaker 2: you know, and you had a stud running back, you know, 821 00:39:42,160 --> 00:39:44,440 Speaker 2: mark ingram that you could rely on. Well, that's not 822 00:39:44,680 --> 00:39:47,960 Speaker 2: what's the case. That's not this team. It isn't Jase McClelland. 823 00:39:48,120 --> 00:39:51,080 Speaker 2: So I gotta say, yeah, I certainly favored Georgia in 824 00:39:51,120 --> 00:39:51,600 Speaker 2: this match. 825 00:39:51,640 --> 00:39:53,319 Speaker 4: And and Kirby Smart and crew. 826 00:39:53,400 --> 00:39:56,000 Speaker 3: They're not going to allow Jaln Milroe to just do 827 00:39:56,120 --> 00:39:59,480 Speaker 3: his run around for the one hundred yards thing right, like, 828 00:39:59,520 --> 00:40:01,760 Speaker 3: I mean, he he stole a lot on the broken 829 00:40:01,800 --> 00:40:05,400 Speaker 3: play concepts. Kirby Smart is not going to allow that stuff. 830 00:40:05,400 --> 00:40:07,640 Speaker 3: They're going to force Milroe to stay in the pocket 831 00:40:07,680 --> 00:40:10,279 Speaker 3: and beat them from the pocket. And they're not gonna 832 00:40:10,280 --> 00:40:15,440 Speaker 3: have six guys congregated around the goalpost on the concepts 833 00:40:15,520 --> 00:40:18,680 Speaker 3: or they need thirty yards to get the play. So yeah, 834 00:40:18,719 --> 00:40:20,200 Speaker 3: I think Alabama's in trouble here. 835 00:40:20,760 --> 00:40:22,960 Speaker 1: We got four more games here which I had to 836 00:40:22,960 --> 00:40:28,120 Speaker 1: get through here. American Athletic Championship SMU ten and two, 837 00:40:28,239 --> 00:40:31,200 Speaker 1: eight to zero in the American Tulane eleven and one, 838 00:40:31,320 --> 00:40:35,480 Speaker 1: also undefeated in conference. Tulane is a three and a 839 00:40:35,560 --> 00:40:38,399 Speaker 1: half point favorite. We're seeing early on here. So Thor, 840 00:40:38,920 --> 00:40:41,359 Speaker 1: what's your adjusted line looking like this in this game? 841 00:40:41,840 --> 00:40:44,880 Speaker 4: Yeah? This one. This is my second bet that I 842 00:40:45,000 --> 00:40:48,160 Speaker 4: made today. I bet on Tulane. I wish i'd done 843 00:40:48,160 --> 00:40:49,200 Speaker 4: it a little bit earlier. 844 00:40:49,200 --> 00:40:51,680 Speaker 3: I was waiting for a text back on something I 845 00:40:51,719 --> 00:40:55,880 Speaker 3: will discuss here in a second, but that was informing 846 00:40:56,040 --> 00:40:59,719 Speaker 3: the amount that I modulated the power ranking of one 847 00:40:59,760 --> 00:41:02,760 Speaker 3: of these teams. I needed to hear about the status 848 00:41:02,800 --> 00:41:06,359 Speaker 3: of one very important player to this line. And when 849 00:41:06,400 --> 00:41:09,520 Speaker 3: I got that back, the line that I settled on 850 00:41:09,600 --> 00:41:12,880 Speaker 3: here is two lane minus four point two. If that player, 851 00:41:13,000 --> 00:41:16,200 Speaker 3: if I thought he was playing in this game, SMU 852 00:41:16,239 --> 00:41:21,000 Speaker 3: would be favored in my system. I don't think we're 853 00:41:21,000 --> 00:41:22,879 Speaker 3: going to see him in this game, and I don't 854 00:41:22,960 --> 00:41:25,520 Speaker 3: think we're gonna see him again this season. We'll have 855 00:41:25,600 --> 00:41:28,040 Speaker 3: to see on that. There's been no public announcement. His 856 00:41:28,040 --> 00:41:30,720 Speaker 3: injury did not look good. On Saturday, I'm talking about 857 00:41:30,719 --> 00:41:34,840 Speaker 3: mister Preston Stone. SMU was up by a billion points 858 00:41:34,840 --> 00:41:37,680 Speaker 3: over Navy and at the very end of the first 859 00:41:37,920 --> 00:41:40,080 Speaker 3: This is the unfortunate thing. There was like thirty seconds 860 00:41:40,160 --> 00:41:42,840 Speaker 3: left in the first half, and almost assuredly, Lashly was 861 00:41:42,880 --> 00:41:45,200 Speaker 3: going to take him out at halftime because SMU does 862 00:41:45,239 --> 00:41:49,680 Speaker 3: pull the guys pretty early, and Preston Stone suffered would 863 00:41:49,680 --> 00:41:52,120 Speaker 3: have appeared to be a pretty serious ankle injury. 864 00:41:52,400 --> 00:41:53,800 Speaker 4: They had to cart him off. 865 00:41:54,080 --> 00:41:55,839 Speaker 3: And not only that, it was one of those things 866 00:41:55,840 --> 00:41:58,440 Speaker 3: where like the head coach makes a point to, you know, 867 00:41:58,800 --> 00:42:01,040 Speaker 3: take off his headset stuff, walk over to the kid, 868 00:42:01,280 --> 00:42:03,799 Speaker 3: you know, put his arm around him, you know, like uh, 869 00:42:03,880 --> 00:42:06,239 Speaker 3: you know before they they take him off on the 870 00:42:06,280 --> 00:42:08,919 Speaker 3: cart and like whisper things in the ear. It does 871 00:42:08,960 --> 00:42:11,800 Speaker 3: not look good for for Preston Stone, which means that 872 00:42:12,000 --> 00:42:14,040 Speaker 3: SMU is going to have to go to their backup 873 00:42:14,080 --> 00:42:18,040 Speaker 3: quarterbacks almost assuredly again, you know, whenever you hear this, 874 00:42:18,320 --> 00:42:20,520 Speaker 3: you know, check updated news whatever. 875 00:42:20,520 --> 00:42:23,200 Speaker 4: We don't have anything official yet, but that's what it appears. 876 00:42:23,520 --> 00:42:26,520 Speaker 3: That the tea leaves on this thing, Kevin Jennings, uh, 877 00:42:26,560 --> 00:42:29,560 Speaker 3: and then is the backup who would likely start. 878 00:42:29,840 --> 00:42:32,879 Speaker 4: And then his backup is a guy that I know well, Alex. 879 00:42:32,560 --> 00:42:37,200 Speaker 3: Paedillah the Ottaway transfer. Yeah, we got to see at 880 00:42:37,200 --> 00:42:39,360 Speaker 3: a Bullgate a couple of years ago because of doubts 881 00:42:39,360 --> 00:42:43,239 Speaker 3: at injuries. That Alex Pad is not good. Kevin Jennings 882 00:42:43,320 --> 00:42:46,920 Speaker 3: uh presumably slightly better, but neither of them are in 883 00:42:47,280 --> 00:42:51,399 Speaker 3: uh prest Stone's stratosphere. So you lose a whole bunch 884 00:42:51,480 --> 00:42:54,560 Speaker 3: off that SMU offense. Well, that's what SMU is good at. 885 00:42:54,960 --> 00:42:58,120 Speaker 3: They just outscore people, in large part because of Preston 886 00:42:58,200 --> 00:43:00,400 Speaker 3: Stone and the Stone age. They they all have a 887 00:43:00,440 --> 00:43:03,440 Speaker 3: good running game. But if the passing attack goes away, 888 00:43:03,800 --> 00:43:06,120 Speaker 3: or if it's severely newtered, which is what you would 889 00:43:06,120 --> 00:43:08,439 Speaker 3: think in this game, that's going to make it really 890 00:43:08,480 --> 00:43:13,239 Speaker 3: tough against Tulane. Tulane can do different stuff. If Presidencetone 891 00:43:13,320 --> 00:43:15,520 Speaker 3: was healthy in this game, I might have gone the 892 00:43:15,560 --> 00:43:15,839 Speaker 3: other way. 893 00:43:15,840 --> 00:43:16,279 Speaker 4: In fact, I. 894 00:43:16,200 --> 00:43:19,480 Speaker 3: Probably would have, because Tulane has been without two of 895 00:43:19,480 --> 00:43:23,600 Speaker 3: their top receivers and that has affected Pratt. Last week 896 00:43:23,680 --> 00:43:26,160 Speaker 3: they were able to scratch and Clow went out against 897 00:43:26,280 --> 00:43:29,520 Speaker 3: UTSA even though Pratt only completed nine passes because they've 898 00:43:29,520 --> 00:43:32,000 Speaker 3: been playing good defense. They found a running back, this 899 00:43:32,120 --> 00:43:34,399 Speaker 3: Makay Hughes guy who was like fifth on the depth 900 00:43:34,440 --> 00:43:38,040 Speaker 3: chart going into camp. Yeah, but you know he's just 901 00:43:38,160 --> 00:43:40,319 Speaker 3: like he runs hard and you know, different stuff like that. 902 00:43:40,719 --> 00:43:43,720 Speaker 3: So they've been able to manufacture a running game again. 903 00:43:43,719 --> 00:43:47,600 Speaker 3: They play good defense and certainly experienced, and they're awesome 904 00:43:47,640 --> 00:43:50,280 Speaker 3: at home. You look at the against the spread records 905 00:43:50,280 --> 00:43:52,160 Speaker 3: of teams over the last five years at home, ten 906 00:43:52,239 --> 00:43:55,040 Speaker 3: years at home since Willie Fritz got to Tulane, they 907 00:43:55,040 --> 00:43:58,080 Speaker 3: have been incredible at home. Now they're welcoming SMU in 908 00:43:58,600 --> 00:44:02,200 Speaker 3: and a backup quarterback. This is not a good situation 909 00:44:02,320 --> 00:44:04,880 Speaker 3: for SMU. And by the way, this could be the 910 00:44:04,960 --> 00:44:07,840 Speaker 3: last game for Michael Pratt. Michael Pratt has already accepted 911 00:44:07,840 --> 00:44:10,799 Speaker 3: a senior ball invite. We would have to see if 912 00:44:10,840 --> 00:44:13,160 Speaker 3: Michael Pratt would play in the bowl game. If you know, 913 00:44:13,239 --> 00:44:15,239 Speaker 3: if they win this game and then they are the 914 00:44:16,000 --> 00:44:18,200 Speaker 3: new Year six, the G five New Year six, it's 915 00:44:18,200 --> 00:44:20,439 Speaker 3: gonna be between them and Liberty. They are very close 916 00:44:20,480 --> 00:44:22,439 Speaker 3: in the college football playoffs. One of them will will 917 00:44:22,440 --> 00:44:25,239 Speaker 3: presumably be picked. We'll have to see on that. But 918 00:44:25,840 --> 00:44:27,479 Speaker 3: those guys are gonna want to go out with a bang. 919 00:44:27,680 --> 00:44:29,759 Speaker 3: I don't know if there's been a decision made on that, 920 00:44:29,800 --> 00:44:32,279 Speaker 3: but especially against SMU's backup quarterback, this is not a 921 00:44:32,280 --> 00:44:32,840 Speaker 3: good scenario. 922 00:44:32,960 --> 00:44:34,480 Speaker 4: For them. This one's two lane all the. 923 00:44:34,440 --> 00:44:36,480 Speaker 1: Way, Froton, is it all the way for? 924 00:44:36,520 --> 00:44:36,640 Speaker 4: You? 925 00:44:36,719 --> 00:44:39,040 Speaker 1: Also got a total fifty and a half to fifty 926 00:44:39,080 --> 00:44:41,839 Speaker 1: one and a half pending what side over under? What 927 00:44:41,840 --> 00:44:42,480 Speaker 1: do you like out of this? 928 00:44:43,360 --> 00:44:45,600 Speaker 2: Yeah, that's interesting. It actually opened up at fifty four 929 00:44:45,640 --> 00:44:47,799 Speaker 2: and a half on the total at circus, so you've 930 00:44:47,800 --> 00:44:50,799 Speaker 2: seen that trending down because of this very news. I mean, 931 00:44:50,800 --> 00:44:54,799 Speaker 2: I understand how you can back smu Thorpe covered it 932 00:44:55,080 --> 00:45:01,280 Speaker 2: succinctly that with this situation, you can't take backup quarterback 933 00:45:01,320 --> 00:45:05,240 Speaker 2: against a tuleen defense that already ranks twenty fourth against 934 00:45:05,320 --> 00:45:07,640 Speaker 2: the run, and you're gonna go out and throw a 935 00:45:07,680 --> 00:45:10,040 Speaker 2: backup QB against them now, So like you can't even 936 00:45:10,080 --> 00:45:13,320 Speaker 2: really run the ball against them, and they're just gonna 937 00:45:13,880 --> 00:45:17,400 Speaker 2: that's bad news against this team. And like with Michael Pratt, 938 00:45:18,000 --> 00:45:21,520 Speaker 2: I drafted him in my twenty team college foot fantasy 939 00:45:21,520 --> 00:45:24,680 Speaker 2: football dynasty league. I feel like thora and I have 940 00:45:24,880 --> 00:45:27,480 Speaker 2: watched him grow from a boy to be a man 941 00:45:28,400 --> 00:45:31,239 Speaker 2: over the course of his collegiate career. You know, a 942 00:45:31,239 --> 00:45:37,439 Speaker 2: lot of adversity and imminently root easy to root for 943 00:45:37,560 --> 00:45:42,200 Speaker 2: Michael Pratt, So all all behind Michael Pratt for an 944 00:45:42,200 --> 00:45:47,439 Speaker 2: incredible collegiate career and Tulane you cannot. You can't take 945 00:45:47,600 --> 00:45:50,320 Speaker 2: SMU you have. If you do, you are a degenerator 946 00:45:50,360 --> 00:45:53,800 Speaker 2: of a cut from a different clock. You're taking SMU 947 00:45:53,840 --> 00:45:55,480 Speaker 2: with a backup QB against Tulane at all. 948 00:45:55,800 --> 00:45:58,560 Speaker 1: All right, Let's go to the Sun Belt Championship. Appalachian 949 00:45:58,640 --> 00:46:00,399 Speaker 1: State eight and four, six and two in the Sun 950 00:46:00,440 --> 00:46:03,840 Speaker 1: Belt versus Troy ten and two, seven and one. Troy 951 00:46:04,120 --> 00:46:05,840 Speaker 1: is at seven and one in the Sun Belt. If 952 00:46:05,840 --> 00:46:07,719 Speaker 1: you didn't get that, Troy is a six and a 953 00:46:07,760 --> 00:46:10,440 Speaker 1: half point favorite. Thora What are your thoughts on this 954 00:46:10,800 --> 00:46:12,640 Speaker 1: on this one in which your adjusted line look like. 955 00:46:13,040 --> 00:46:16,200 Speaker 3: Both my system is right there with Vegas on both 956 00:46:16,239 --> 00:46:19,600 Speaker 3: the spread and the total. My line is Troy minus 957 00:46:19,600 --> 00:46:22,719 Speaker 3: six point eight and my total is fifty two point five, 958 00:46:22,760 --> 00:46:25,480 Speaker 3: which is right there with where Vegas is as well. 959 00:46:26,080 --> 00:46:27,160 Speaker 4: This is a tough one for me. 960 00:46:27,400 --> 00:46:30,399 Speaker 3: I hated this Apple Agan Stay team the first month 961 00:46:30,440 --> 00:46:32,799 Speaker 3: of the season, and I thought that their coach was 962 00:46:32,800 --> 00:46:35,359 Speaker 3: gonna get fired because they were playing so bad. And 963 00:46:35,400 --> 00:46:39,360 Speaker 3: then they had this crazy turnaround, like now they're playing awesome. 964 00:46:39,400 --> 00:46:41,239 Speaker 3: It's like I turned back the clock to the old 965 00:46:41,239 --> 00:46:44,359 Speaker 3: Apple Agian State teams. I don't know what was said 966 00:46:44,440 --> 00:46:46,719 Speaker 3: or done. You know, it's not like anything, you know, 967 00:46:46,840 --> 00:46:48,880 Speaker 3: change with the personnel or anything. But they've been a 968 00:46:48,920 --> 00:46:51,400 Speaker 3: totally different team than the second half of the season. 969 00:46:51,719 --> 00:46:54,480 Speaker 3: They're really coming on strong. Troy is the team that 970 00:46:54,520 --> 00:46:56,840 Speaker 3: I've like from the start of the season. That was 971 00:46:56,880 --> 00:46:59,640 Speaker 3: my favorite team in the Sunbolt. So I mean, if 972 00:46:59,680 --> 00:47:01,200 Speaker 3: I have my brothers, they would be the team that 973 00:47:01,239 --> 00:47:03,360 Speaker 3: I would back. But there's no line value here this. 974 00:47:03,760 --> 00:47:06,000 Speaker 3: You know, if there's one game I'm probably gonna avoid 975 00:47:06,000 --> 00:47:08,200 Speaker 3: to be this one because apple Achian State has all 976 00:47:08,239 --> 00:47:11,080 Speaker 3: the momentum, but Troy is they're the old guard here. 977 00:47:11,320 --> 00:47:13,720 Speaker 3: They've been in this spot before. They have the good defense, 978 00:47:13,760 --> 00:47:16,040 Speaker 3: they have the good running game, they have the veteran quarterback, 979 00:47:16,040 --> 00:47:18,200 Speaker 3: and the veteran coaching staff. One thing to keep an 980 00:47:18,239 --> 00:47:21,399 Speaker 3: eye on John Sumral, the coach for Troy. There's been 981 00:47:21,440 --> 00:47:24,040 Speaker 3: a lot of chatter if some of these dominoes start 982 00:47:24,080 --> 00:47:26,800 Speaker 3: to fall in the in the coaching ranks, John Summeral 983 00:47:26,880 --> 00:47:28,640 Speaker 3: could be one of the guys that the Power five 984 00:47:28,680 --> 00:47:31,160 Speaker 3: teams look to plug their hole. So we'll have to 985 00:47:31,160 --> 00:47:33,160 Speaker 3: see as the week goes on if that's something that 986 00:47:33,200 --> 00:47:35,680 Speaker 3: picks up. But uh, this is probably gonna be a 987 00:47:35,680 --> 00:47:36,399 Speaker 3: stay away from. 988 00:47:36,280 --> 00:47:38,759 Speaker 1: Me, Proton. Is there anything that you want to touch 989 00:47:38,760 --> 00:47:40,040 Speaker 1: in this in this bad boy? 990 00:47:40,719 --> 00:47:45,640 Speaker 2: Yeah, just the quarterback for appalation state A wild man, mister, Aggie, 991 00:47:45,719 --> 00:47:50,120 Speaker 2: are that guy is something to watch. He really has 992 00:47:50,239 --> 00:47:54,399 Speaker 2: been a catalyst and a big reason why they've kind 993 00:47:54,400 --> 00:47:57,759 Speaker 2: of bounced back. But he is a wild card, you know, 994 00:47:57,800 --> 00:48:00,920 Speaker 2: in terms of he actually leads the country in turnover 995 00:48:01,200 --> 00:48:06,000 Speaker 2: worthy throws but only has eight interceptions, Like it's like 996 00:48:06,040 --> 00:48:08,759 Speaker 2: a twenty four to eight ratio. He has had an 997 00:48:08,800 --> 00:48:12,840 Speaker 2: innumerable amount of bad throws that have somehow not landed 998 00:48:12,840 --> 00:48:17,480 Speaker 2: in the opposing team's arms. But you know, whatever works 999 00:48:17,520 --> 00:48:20,520 Speaker 2: for that. I just have concerns about his free wheeling 1000 00:48:20,640 --> 00:48:23,680 Speaker 2: kind of ways against the Troy defense that has been 1001 00:48:25,160 --> 00:48:28,200 Speaker 2: lights out. Everybody talks about James Madison, but Troy's defense 1002 00:48:28,280 --> 00:48:31,319 Speaker 2: has been right there. If they're not the best, they're 1003 00:48:31,320 --> 00:48:34,239 Speaker 2: the second best group of five defense I think that 1004 00:48:34,280 --> 00:48:38,520 Speaker 2: I've seen this year. And having him, you know, sort 1005 00:48:38,560 --> 00:48:41,400 Speaker 2: of chucking it up that he's not gonna be able 1006 00:48:41,400 --> 00:48:44,360 Speaker 2: to get away with that against Troy. The only fact 1007 00:48:44,360 --> 00:48:47,399 Speaker 2: that it has me giving pause. As Thor mentioned, John 1008 00:48:47,440 --> 00:48:50,520 Speaker 2: Sumral is going somewhere else like they've been too good 1009 00:48:50,520 --> 00:48:54,319 Speaker 2: this year. Troy's he's, he's his body of work is 1010 00:48:54,320 --> 00:48:58,160 Speaker 2: too impressive. He's gonna go somewhere else where is the 1011 00:48:58,200 --> 00:49:01,600 Speaker 2: motivation of this staff because you know, a game is 1012 00:49:01,680 --> 00:49:04,440 Speaker 2: fine at this point, it would be nice, but these 1013 00:49:04,440 --> 00:49:06,480 Speaker 2: guys are thinking about, all right, where am I coaching 1014 00:49:06,560 --> 00:49:09,680 Speaker 2: next year? You know, because it's these guys move around 1015 00:49:09,719 --> 00:49:12,719 Speaker 2: all the time, these assistants. So that is my the 1016 00:49:12,719 --> 00:49:14,400 Speaker 2: pause I have in this game. So I'm kind of 1017 00:49:14,440 --> 00:49:15,279 Speaker 2: staying away. 1018 00:49:15,280 --> 00:49:15,600 Speaker 4: All right. 1019 00:49:15,640 --> 00:49:19,040 Speaker 1: ACC Championship Louisville ten and two, seven and one in 1020 00:49:19,080 --> 00:49:22,760 Speaker 1: the a SEC, going up against Florida State Undefeated. Florida 1021 00:49:22,800 --> 00:49:25,719 Speaker 1: State is only a three and a half point favorite, 1022 00:49:25,760 --> 00:49:28,920 Speaker 1: the total sitting between fifty one and fifty two and 1023 00:49:28,920 --> 00:49:31,960 Speaker 1: a half from best to worst pending what side you 1024 00:49:31,960 --> 00:49:35,120 Speaker 1: would want to take the over under? So thor what's 1025 00:49:35,120 --> 00:49:37,160 Speaker 1: your line looking like for this one? And why is 1026 00:49:37,200 --> 00:49:39,920 Speaker 1: Florida State this low? Is this too low of a 1027 00:49:40,000 --> 00:49:41,920 Speaker 1: number or your system say anything bigger? 1028 00:49:42,719 --> 00:49:44,000 Speaker 4: No, it's it's not too low. 1029 00:49:44,200 --> 00:49:46,840 Speaker 3: I'm kind of smiling here because you know, on Sundays, 1030 00:49:46,920 --> 00:49:49,680 Speaker 3: I'm gonna miss doing this show and I'm also gonna 1031 00:49:49,680 --> 00:49:52,160 Speaker 3: miss you know, just betting on Sundays in general, and 1032 00:49:52,200 --> 00:49:54,000 Speaker 3: called for betting Collge football in general. 1033 00:49:54,040 --> 00:49:55,080 Speaker 4: But you're on. 1034 00:49:55,000 --> 00:49:57,680 Speaker 3: Sundays, You're always playing cat and I'm always with the market. 1035 00:49:57,760 --> 00:50:00,359 Speaker 3: In addition, you know, you got your numbers, have your 1036 00:50:00,719 --> 00:50:02,840 Speaker 3: takes on the teams, whatever, and then you see the 1037 00:50:03,120 --> 00:50:05,760 Speaker 3: lines drop. And we've talked about this in past episodes, 1038 00:50:05,760 --> 00:50:08,640 Speaker 3: where it's not just your conviction on that you also 1039 00:50:08,680 --> 00:50:11,319 Speaker 3: have to do the three dimensional chess thing of could 1040 00:50:11,360 --> 00:50:13,200 Speaker 3: a better number be available. 1041 00:50:12,719 --> 00:50:15,439 Speaker 4: For me if I wait right? And the reason I. 1042 00:50:15,360 --> 00:50:18,680 Speaker 3: Was smiling was because, uh, you know, when when we started, 1043 00:50:18,800 --> 00:50:21,880 Speaker 3: you know, thirty minutes ago or whatever, this line was 1044 00:50:21,880 --> 00:50:24,920 Speaker 3: at five and a half. And I really like Louisville. 1045 00:50:25,000 --> 00:50:27,600 Speaker 3: I think Louisville is going to win this game. And 1046 00:50:27,680 --> 00:50:29,920 Speaker 3: I got a little greedy. I thought, you know, I'll 1047 00:50:29,960 --> 00:50:32,280 Speaker 3: wait till the end of the show and maybe there's 1048 00:50:32,280 --> 00:50:34,640 Speaker 3: some uh some dopes out there that are gonna bet 1049 00:50:34,680 --> 00:50:37,000 Speaker 3: Florida State and just push it. Just you know, I 1050 00:50:37,040 --> 00:50:39,759 Speaker 3: only need just a little bit more to get six, right, 1051 00:50:40,320 --> 00:50:41,879 Speaker 3: And so that's what I was waiting for. And then 1052 00:50:42,200 --> 00:50:45,360 Speaker 3: I checked back and in most books now it is 1053 00:50:45,960 --> 00:50:49,920 Speaker 3: dropped to three and a half. Fortunately four. Fortunately there's 1054 00:50:49,960 --> 00:50:52,000 Speaker 3: still some books where it's four and a half, so 1055 00:50:52,160 --> 00:50:54,680 Speaker 3: I was able to punch in my four and a half. 1056 00:50:54,680 --> 00:50:57,319 Speaker 3: But you know, did get a little greedy there. But 1057 00:50:57,640 --> 00:51:00,880 Speaker 3: it's Louisville all the way here. I don't care that Louisville. 1058 00:51:00,920 --> 00:51:03,920 Speaker 3: Last last week I was on Kentucky. I was the 1059 00:51:03,920 --> 00:51:06,439 Speaker 3: guy saying, that's a look ahead spot. They're looking ahead 1060 00:51:06,480 --> 00:51:09,279 Speaker 3: to Florida State. Kentucky's live here. You know, I had 1061 00:51:09,320 --> 00:51:11,480 Speaker 3: money line ticket. I had the seven and a half points. 1062 00:51:12,160 --> 00:51:15,080 Speaker 3: But Louisville is They're a solid team. They can do 1063 00:51:15,440 --> 00:51:18,480 Speaker 3: multiple different things. They have the explosive running game, they 1064 00:51:18,480 --> 00:51:22,040 Speaker 3: have the two different running backs Jordan and Grendo Plumber 1065 00:51:22,120 --> 00:51:24,839 Speaker 3: the veteran quarterback. And then people don't realize how good 1066 00:51:24,840 --> 00:51:28,240 Speaker 3: their defense is. They have the pass rush, very good 1067 00:51:28,520 --> 00:51:31,280 Speaker 3: run defense, and that is the thing that is important 1068 00:51:31,280 --> 00:51:35,840 Speaker 3: for this matchup because Tate Rodimaker stinks confirmed over and over. 1069 00:51:35,719 --> 00:51:37,680 Speaker 4: Again the past three years. 1070 00:51:37,719 --> 00:51:40,080 Speaker 3: I don't know why Norvell did not go out and 1071 00:51:40,080 --> 00:51:42,080 Speaker 3: get a veteran backup quarterback in the portal. 1072 00:51:42,320 --> 00:51:43,239 Speaker 4: He absolutely should have. 1073 00:51:43,280 --> 00:51:45,040 Speaker 3: It was the only thing he did not hit on 1074 00:51:45,160 --> 00:51:48,120 Speaker 3: his shopping list or whatever, and then it was confirmed 1075 00:51:48,120 --> 00:51:51,279 Speaker 3: against Florida as well. He doesn't give you a mobility 1076 00:51:51,320 --> 00:51:53,359 Speaker 3: aspect either, so he's sort of a sit and duck 1077 00:51:53,440 --> 00:51:56,359 Speaker 3: back there. Louisville's run defense is going to be able 1078 00:51:56,400 --> 00:51:59,160 Speaker 3: to put the clamps on a Florida State running attack, 1079 00:51:59,400 --> 00:52:02,760 Speaker 3: which is play down this year. I know Forroton agrees 1080 00:52:02,800 --> 00:52:04,800 Speaker 3: with me on this. We thought Florida State's rushing attack 1081 00:52:04,880 --> 00:52:06,879 Speaker 3: was going to be way better. It didn't matter when 1082 00:52:06,960 --> 00:52:09,600 Speaker 3: Jordan Travis was playing, because it was Jordan Travis and 1083 00:52:09,640 --> 00:52:11,839 Speaker 3: he had key on Coleman and then Johnny Wilson when 1084 00:52:11,840 --> 00:52:14,600 Speaker 3: he was in there, and yeah, Jock keem Bell motioning 1085 00:52:14,680 --> 00:52:17,400 Speaker 3: around doing Jock keem Bell things. But we thought that, 1086 00:52:17,600 --> 00:52:21,520 Speaker 3: I mean, Froton, we both thought Trey Benson was newcle 1087 00:52:21,760 --> 00:52:23,719 Speaker 3: this year and then you had Toaphily and then you know, 1088 00:52:24,320 --> 00:52:26,960 Speaker 3: but the running attack hasn't been great this year. I 1089 00:52:27,000 --> 00:52:30,560 Speaker 3: would prefer Louisville's run defense to Florida State's rushing attack, 1090 00:52:30,680 --> 00:52:33,600 Speaker 3: in particular, since you don't have to worry about Jordan 1091 00:52:33,680 --> 00:52:37,200 Speaker 3: Travis this. I think this spell's problems for a Florida 1092 00:52:37,280 --> 00:52:40,240 Speaker 3: State and I think Louisville absolutely bounces back here again 1093 00:52:40,480 --> 00:52:42,239 Speaker 3: this is the game that they were looking ahead to 1094 00:52:42,520 --> 00:52:46,040 Speaker 3: when they know showed last last week. Think about Auburn 1095 00:52:46,120 --> 00:52:48,480 Speaker 3: no showing the New Mexico State game because they were 1096 00:52:48,480 --> 00:52:50,719 Speaker 3: looking ahead of the Alabama game, and then the fight 1097 00:52:50,760 --> 00:52:53,520 Speaker 3: that Auburn had against Alabama. I think it's the same 1098 00:52:53,560 --> 00:52:56,680 Speaker 3: one here. I think Louisville wins and gets us out 1099 00:52:56,680 --> 00:52:59,719 Speaker 3: of our national nightmare of having to confront tate Rodemaker 1100 00:52:59,760 --> 00:53:01,200 Speaker 3: and a football playoff game. 1101 00:53:01,480 --> 00:53:03,480 Speaker 1: All right, right, Throton, are you going to echo a 1102 00:53:03,480 --> 00:53:05,280 Speaker 1: lot of what Thorge just said? Are you on Louisville 1103 00:53:05,320 --> 00:53:07,040 Speaker 1: as well? 1104 00:53:07,239 --> 00:53:08,080 Speaker 5: Yeah? Absolutely? 1105 00:53:08,320 --> 00:53:11,080 Speaker 2: And when it comes to tate Rodamaker two twelve twenty 1106 00:53:11,080 --> 00:53:13,360 Speaker 2: five for one hundred and thirty four yards, a forty 1107 00:53:13,400 --> 00:53:18,760 Speaker 2: eight percent completion rate, sixty four point four NFL passer rating, 1108 00:53:18,840 --> 00:53:21,720 Speaker 2: I mean, that is about as bad as it gets 1109 00:53:22,080 --> 00:53:24,120 Speaker 2: for him, and career wise, it's not like he's been 1110 00:53:24,160 --> 00:53:26,880 Speaker 2: any better anytime he's come in career fifty seven percent 1111 00:53:26,920 --> 00:53:30,480 Speaker 2: completion rate, six to ten, big time throw to turnover 1112 00:53:30,560 --> 00:53:34,520 Speaker 2: worthy play rate, and just the team that played down 1113 00:53:34,560 --> 00:53:37,479 Speaker 2: to what you'd expect them to do Florida State four 1114 00:53:37,520 --> 00:53:40,359 Speaker 2: to fourteen on third downs when they knew they were 1115 00:53:40,360 --> 00:53:43,399 Speaker 2: going to throw, you know, like Florida State couldn't throw 1116 00:53:43,520 --> 00:53:46,160 Speaker 2: two hundred and twenty four total yards they put up 1117 00:53:46,719 --> 00:53:51,360 Speaker 2: like they they masked a horrible performance against Florida by. 1118 00:53:51,360 --> 00:53:53,120 Speaker 5: Just squeaking out a win. 1119 00:53:53,320 --> 00:53:55,520 Speaker 2: If they didn't actually win, I think this line would 1120 00:53:55,560 --> 00:53:58,680 Speaker 2: probably be even right now, honestly, just because the whole 1121 00:53:58,760 --> 00:54:01,960 Speaker 2: perception of it. Like I said, Louisville, they didn't commit, 1122 00:54:03,080 --> 00:54:07,280 Speaker 2: Kentucky played a clean game, zero penalties. Louisville committed three 1123 00:54:07,400 --> 00:54:11,719 Speaker 2: turnovers and still outgained Kentucky four h three to two 1124 00:54:11,719 --> 00:54:14,719 Speaker 2: eighty nine. So like their Pythagorean win expectation is way 1125 00:54:14,800 --> 00:54:18,840 Speaker 2: up there. But I mean, you know, Kentucky played a 1126 00:54:18,880 --> 00:54:22,880 Speaker 2: clean game and they made they executed Barrion Brown, you know, 1127 00:54:22,960 --> 00:54:27,160 Speaker 2: took a kickback. Just everything look look ahead, spot Everything 1128 00:54:27,239 --> 00:54:29,240 Speaker 2: pointed to this sort of happening. 1129 00:54:30,920 --> 00:54:33,840 Speaker 5: I can't. I hate to be in lockstep with Thorp. 1130 00:54:34,120 --> 00:54:37,400 Speaker 2: I have to agree, Like, how do you take Florida 1131 00:54:37,400 --> 00:54:39,600 Speaker 2: State right now? Give me the three and a half points, 1132 00:54:39,760 --> 00:54:41,600 Speaker 2: hopefully four and a half, but just give me all 1133 00:54:41,600 --> 00:54:44,280 Speaker 2: the points I can get and I'll Rodney Louisville against 1134 00:54:44,320 --> 00:54:45,040 Speaker 2: Tate Rodemaker. 1135 00:54:45,280 --> 00:54:49,080 Speaker 3: Just one other thing contextually here over the career of Rodamaker. 1136 00:54:49,080 --> 00:54:50,799 Speaker 3: I know for Tone was going into a little bit, 1137 00:54:50,840 --> 00:54:53,719 Speaker 3: but just a couple more Rodamaker over four years at 1138 00:54:53,719 --> 00:54:57,600 Speaker 3: Florida State, he's throwing one hundred and eighteen passes, five interceptions, 1139 00:54:57,640 --> 00:55:00,640 Speaker 3: and he's taken fourteen sacks. And again he doesn't offer 1140 00:55:00,680 --> 00:55:04,840 Speaker 3: you anything with his legs, negative seventeen career rushing attempts. 1141 00:55:05,160 --> 00:55:07,760 Speaker 3: This year, he's his stats look a little bit better 1142 00:55:08,239 --> 00:55:11,600 Speaker 3: because you know, thirty two for fifty six and he 1143 00:55:11,680 --> 00:55:14,919 Speaker 3: has five touchdowns against zero interceptions, whereas he entered this 1144 00:55:14,920 --> 00:55:17,880 Speaker 3: this year two touchdowns, five interceptions, but all of his 1145 00:55:17,960 --> 00:55:20,600 Speaker 3: passing attempts it was either garbage time against teams like 1146 00:55:20,719 --> 00:55:25,160 Speaker 3: Southern mess Wake Forest, the Corpse of Pitt. But then 1147 00:55:25,200 --> 00:55:27,400 Speaker 3: the bulk of it was the last two weeks against 1148 00:55:27,480 --> 00:55:30,399 Speaker 3: FCS North Alabama, which is not just an FCS team, 1149 00:55:30,400 --> 00:55:33,680 Speaker 3: it's a bad FCS team, and then Florida this past week. 1150 00:55:34,000 --> 00:55:35,799 Speaker 3: We had a big fork sticking out of their back. 1151 00:55:35,840 --> 00:55:38,200 Speaker 3: Five and seven. Florida, who's now home for the holidays, 1152 00:55:38,200 --> 00:55:39,600 Speaker 3: ain't going bawling Tate. 1153 00:55:39,640 --> 00:55:40,799 Speaker 4: Rodemaker is not good. 1154 00:55:41,040 --> 00:55:42,800 Speaker 3: This Florida State team is not good with him in 1155 00:55:42,840 --> 00:55:44,360 Speaker 3: that quarterback it's Louisville all the. 1156 00:55:44,320 --> 00:55:47,640 Speaker 1: Way, all right, final game here, what you've been waiting for? 1157 00:55:47,840 --> 00:55:52,280 Speaker 1: Big Ten championship. Michigan undefeated across the board versus Iowa, 1158 00:55:52,560 --> 00:55:54,919 Speaker 1: who's ten and two seven and two in the Big Ten. 1159 00:55:55,280 --> 00:55:57,720 Speaker 1: Michigan is a twenty two and a half point favorite, 1160 00:55:57,960 --> 00:56:00,160 Speaker 1: And the best thing about it is looking at that 1161 00:56:00,280 --> 00:56:03,320 Speaker 1: over total line, which looks like I just had it 1162 00:56:03,400 --> 00:56:05,880 Speaker 1: up here. It's thirty five and a half to thirty 1163 00:56:05,920 --> 00:56:08,040 Speaker 1: six and a half whichever side you want to play, 1164 00:56:08,239 --> 00:56:12,720 Speaker 1: so implied scoring of just under two touchdowns for Iowa 1165 00:56:13,120 --> 00:56:15,720 Speaker 1: on that line. So there might be some fun stuff 1166 00:56:15,760 --> 00:56:18,279 Speaker 1: to dance with here, thor what are you dancing with? 1167 00:56:18,480 --> 00:56:21,759 Speaker 1: Michigan twenty two and a half and that total has 1168 00:56:21,800 --> 00:56:22,960 Speaker 1: got to be screaming something. 1169 00:56:23,360 --> 00:56:23,560 Speaker 4: Yeah. 1170 00:56:23,600 --> 00:56:25,799 Speaker 3: Looking at a total of thirty five for an Iowa fan, 1171 00:56:25,880 --> 00:56:28,560 Speaker 3: it's like when you open the check with your paycheck 1172 00:56:28,600 --> 00:56:30,680 Speaker 3: and it's like double as much as you usually get 1173 00:56:30,760 --> 00:56:33,480 Speaker 3: and you're like wow, yeah, I mean like I'm the 1174 00:56:33,600 --> 00:56:36,240 Speaker 3: past several weeks, I've been you know, twenty five. 1175 00:56:36,080 --> 00:56:38,600 Speaker 4: And a half twenty seven and out of twenty. 1176 00:56:38,280 --> 00:56:41,480 Speaker 5: Eight, twenty four got down to twenty four last week. 1177 00:56:41,520 --> 00:56:44,879 Speaker 3: Ooh, that's you see, and I always been going under 1178 00:56:44,880 --> 00:56:45,800 Speaker 3: every single time. 1179 00:56:46,560 --> 00:56:47,680 Speaker 4: It's thirty five this week. 1180 00:56:47,760 --> 00:56:50,560 Speaker 3: Obviously, the book makers are expecting Michigan to be doing 1181 00:56:50,560 --> 00:56:52,840 Speaker 3: most of the heavy lifting with with where this line is, 1182 00:56:53,640 --> 00:56:55,920 Speaker 3: and I would expect that as well. 1183 00:56:56,400 --> 00:56:58,839 Speaker 4: Iowa's in trouble here. They can. 1184 00:56:58,920 --> 00:57:01,640 Speaker 3: Iowa can do the grind out thing against the teams 1185 00:57:01,640 --> 00:57:04,680 Speaker 3: that stink, for sure. But as this season's got along, 1186 00:57:04,719 --> 00:57:07,120 Speaker 3: in credit to the coaching staff who's always great and 1187 00:57:07,120 --> 00:57:08,880 Speaker 3: everything like that, and they got to ten and two, 1188 00:57:08,920 --> 00:57:09,920 Speaker 3: they were able to grind. 1189 00:57:09,719 --> 00:57:10,719 Speaker 4: It out and everything like that. 1190 00:57:10,960 --> 00:57:12,920 Speaker 3: But as things have gone along, they have lost so 1191 00:57:12,920 --> 00:57:15,960 Speaker 3: many key guys to injuries, right, Kate McNamara, Luke l 1192 00:57:16,800 --> 00:57:21,720 Speaker 3: eric All and then recently they lost Cooper john to 1193 00:57:22,400 --> 00:57:24,680 Speaker 3: who you know. If not for that, and maybe even 1194 00:57:24,720 --> 00:57:27,200 Speaker 3: still will be a top ten NFL draft pick, A 1195 00:57:27,320 --> 00:57:29,120 Speaker 3: dual guy safety. 1196 00:57:28,840 --> 00:57:31,960 Speaker 4: Cornerback, nickel guy pump returner extraordinary. 1197 00:57:31,960 --> 00:57:35,160 Speaker 3: If they hadn't taken his punt return away fraudulently after 1198 00:57:35,200 --> 00:57:37,680 Speaker 3: the fact when they were reviewing for something else, I 1199 00:57:37,720 --> 00:57:39,480 Speaker 3: will be eleven to one and not ten and two. 1200 00:57:39,920 --> 00:57:42,080 Speaker 4: I digress Kirk farns. 1201 00:57:41,800 --> 00:57:43,240 Speaker 3: To talking about that after the game, so I had 1202 00:57:43,240 --> 00:57:45,920 Speaker 3: to get that in but you're talking about a severely 1203 00:57:45,960 --> 00:57:49,240 Speaker 3: depreciated IOWA team that obviously they have the horrific offense 1204 00:57:49,640 --> 00:57:52,280 Speaker 3: going up against this Leviathan Michigan team. 1205 00:57:52,520 --> 00:57:54,120 Speaker 4: Something to keep an eye on Michigan. 1206 00:57:54,480 --> 00:57:56,919 Speaker 3: Michigan did get Roman Wilson back in the last game, 1207 00:57:56,960 --> 00:57:59,520 Speaker 3: so that was good news for them their wide receiver one. However, 1208 00:57:59,600 --> 00:58:02,040 Speaker 3: they did lose Will Johnson to a lower back injury. 1209 00:58:02,040 --> 00:58:04,280 Speaker 3: Will Johnson had a big play in the Ohio State game, 1210 00:58:04,320 --> 00:58:06,680 Speaker 3: but then he got hurt right after that. They also 1211 00:58:07,040 --> 00:58:09,720 Speaker 3: very big loss for Michigan lost Zack Zenter. They're all 1212 00:58:09,760 --> 00:58:12,160 Speaker 3: American guard might be out for the season with the 1213 00:58:12,240 --> 00:58:15,520 Speaker 3: leg injury. He had to get carted off. Michigan's offensive line. 1214 00:58:15,520 --> 00:58:17,720 Speaker 3: We talked about this sneakily has played down a bit 1215 00:58:17,760 --> 00:58:20,479 Speaker 3: this year. Zack Zinner was about the best that they had. 1216 00:58:21,200 --> 00:58:24,320 Speaker 3: That's something to keep an eye on for after this game. 1217 00:58:24,400 --> 00:58:26,280 Speaker 3: I don't think Michigan is gonna have any problem with 1218 00:58:26,320 --> 00:58:28,560 Speaker 3: Iowa all but more or less that this is a 1219 00:58:28,600 --> 00:58:31,320 Speaker 3: fair line. I was just going to try to shorten 1220 00:58:31,360 --> 00:58:33,720 Speaker 3: the thing, and you know, I mean, keep it more 1221 00:58:33,800 --> 00:58:37,520 Speaker 3: or less around here and not get embarrassed whatever. I'm 1222 00:58:37,520 --> 00:58:39,480 Speaker 3: not sure that I'll bet this, but I don't know 1223 00:58:39,520 --> 00:58:40,520 Speaker 3: that I could take Iowa. 1224 00:58:40,960 --> 00:58:44,080 Speaker 1: Throton is I feel like the total is screaming for 1225 00:58:44,120 --> 00:58:46,960 Speaker 1: you in one direction. Airy Totals guy here, so talk 1226 00:58:46,960 --> 00:58:48,200 Speaker 1: to me. Is there a bet that you do want 1227 00:58:48,200 --> 00:58:49,080 Speaker 1: to place on this game? 1228 00:58:49,520 --> 00:58:49,720 Speaker 5: Yeah? 1229 00:58:49,760 --> 00:58:52,240 Speaker 2: Well, as Thorp said, is intervening out could be a 1230 00:58:52,280 --> 00:58:56,160 Speaker 2: factor because Ohio State outgained them three seventy eight to 1231 00:58:56,240 --> 00:58:59,120 Speaker 2: three thirty eight total yards. They are one hundred and 1232 00:58:59,200 --> 00:59:02,200 Speaker 2: twenty ninth and paid to play the and first in 1233 00:59:02,440 --> 00:59:06,280 Speaker 2: overall defense. So like they they are happy to just 1234 00:59:06,560 --> 00:59:09,840 Speaker 2: maul you up front and try to do that with 1235 00:59:10,280 --> 00:59:12,360 Speaker 2: Zenter out. I mean that that does present a little 1236 00:59:12,360 --> 00:59:19,160 Speaker 2: problem with Iowa though. I mean, my gosh, big deep energy. Yeah, 1237 00:59:19,600 --> 00:59:23,360 Speaker 2: Deacon Blues they call Alabama and the Crimson tied call 1238 00:59:23,440 --> 00:59:25,240 Speaker 2: him Deacon Blues. That's probably the last time I'm going 1239 00:59:25,280 --> 00:59:30,760 Speaker 2: to get to use that. But a ghastly one to 1240 00:59:31,040 --> 00:59:34,320 Speaker 2: fourteen big time throw to turnover worthy play rate. That 1241 00:59:34,480 --> 00:59:38,560 Speaker 2: is as bad as you can possibly get for a time. 1242 00:59:38,520 --> 00:59:40,480 Speaker 4: Two Big ten WIST champion. 1243 00:59:41,240 --> 00:59:46,200 Speaker 2: Yeah, and it's he's here win team in his defense, 1244 00:59:46,960 --> 00:59:51,760 Speaker 2: sixteen and a half percent drop rate that is far 1245 00:59:51,840 --> 00:59:55,120 Speaker 2: and away the highest drop rate in the entire FBS. 1246 00:59:55,400 --> 00:59:57,960 Speaker 2: Do you know who number two has the number two 1247 00:59:58,120 --> 01:00:05,360 Speaker 2: highest drop rate for you'll understand why when I when 1248 01:00:05,400 --> 01:00:10,840 Speaker 2: I unveil his eight in caliac manus number two and 1249 01:00:10,880 --> 01:00:14,080 Speaker 2: even him, so both your team's horrible hands. 1250 01:00:14,320 --> 01:00:15,400 Speaker 5: As it turns out. 1251 01:00:15,280 --> 01:00:16,480 Speaker 4: I don't have nothing to do with that. 1252 01:00:16,880 --> 01:00:17,800 Speaker 5: No, you don't know. 1253 01:00:18,000 --> 01:00:21,640 Speaker 3: I need something nice. You know, at least Kansas got 1254 01:00:21,640 --> 01:00:22,600 Speaker 3: some guys that can catch. 1255 01:00:22,800 --> 01:00:25,520 Speaker 2: I know Kansas does so at least two out of 1256 01:00:25,560 --> 01:00:27,080 Speaker 2: you know, one out of three ain't bad. But with 1257 01:00:27,200 --> 01:00:31,240 Speaker 2: kaliak manis even with him at number two in the country, 1258 01:00:31,600 --> 01:00:34,240 Speaker 2: is still at thirteen point nine percent. That is a 1259 01:00:34,280 --> 01:00:38,120 Speaker 2: full two and a half percent less than Deacon Hill. 1260 01:00:38,160 --> 01:00:41,240 Speaker 2: To show just the cavernous gap in terms of the 1261 01:00:41,400 --> 01:00:45,280 Speaker 2: quality of play of not just the QB who has 1262 01:00:45,320 --> 01:00:48,720 Speaker 2: a forty six point five PFF passing grade, but of 1263 01:00:49,360 --> 01:00:50,560 Speaker 2: the guys he's throwing to. 1264 01:00:51,240 --> 01:00:53,440 Speaker 5: Aren't any good either. As he mentioned, I mean, their 1265 01:00:53,480 --> 01:00:54,640 Speaker 5: two best players. 1266 01:00:54,240 --> 01:00:57,320 Speaker 2: Were all in the shade. They're gone, They're gone for 1267 01:00:57,320 --> 01:00:59,560 Speaker 2: the season, They're not coming back. It's like this is 1268 01:00:59,600 --> 01:01:02,440 Speaker 2: a extremely deficient offense. 1269 01:01:03,240 --> 01:01:05,200 Speaker 5: So, you know, and that needed a. 1270 01:01:05,320 --> 01:01:08,200 Speaker 2: Last second field goal from thora I can't believe me 1271 01:01:08,280 --> 01:01:11,640 Speaker 2: talking about this Marshall meter. Oh yeah, Marshall meter his 1272 01:01:11,720 --> 01:01:13,600 Speaker 2: first field goal attempt of the season. 1273 01:01:14,160 --> 01:01:16,320 Speaker 4: Yes, yeah, right, yeah. 1274 01:01:16,360 --> 01:01:18,640 Speaker 3: They asked parents about that after the game, like why 1275 01:01:18,640 --> 01:01:19,680 Speaker 3: did you break hivid for that? 1276 01:01:19,800 --> 01:01:21,640 Speaker 4: Parent's like, oh, I felt good about it. He was, 1277 01:01:21,760 --> 01:01:24,080 Speaker 4: you know, he looked confident that pre gave all that. 1278 01:01:24,120 --> 01:01:25,760 Speaker 4: It's like, what felt good? 1279 01:01:25,880 --> 01:01:28,520 Speaker 2: Thirty late thirty eight yard field goal with time pretty 1280 01:01:28,600 --> 01:01:31,680 Speaker 2: much I mean expiring. Essentially, he hits a thirty eight 1281 01:01:31,760 --> 01:01:33,720 Speaker 2: yard field goal in his first attempt of the season 1282 01:01:34,080 --> 01:01:37,360 Speaker 2: because Kirk ference that's how he rolls, because he doesn't care. 1283 01:01:37,640 --> 01:01:42,160 Speaker 2: He's the big, big ten championship game. He doesn't matter 1284 01:01:42,200 --> 01:01:45,960 Speaker 2: to him, I mean whatever, So you know you got 1285 01:01:46,000 --> 01:01:49,440 Speaker 2: to respect it. But that being said, they scored fifteen 1286 01:01:49,480 --> 01:01:53,360 Speaker 2: points or less in four of their ten wins. That 1287 01:01:53,560 --> 01:01:58,920 Speaker 2: is the most fifteen point or less wins by a 1288 01:01:58,960 --> 01:02:05,160 Speaker 2: team since nineteen ninety one. That is your two thousands, 1289 01:02:05,640 --> 01:02:09,080 Speaker 2: that's your twenty twenty three Iowa Hawk guys, how do 1290 01:02:09,120 --> 01:02:13,240 Speaker 2: you after ten wins? Can you honestly fire Brian Ferrence thorn. 1291 01:02:13,600 --> 01:02:16,400 Speaker 4: Well, he already walked away, so he solved it for him. 1292 01:02:16,440 --> 01:02:19,400 Speaker 5: But uh, I mean, come on, man, come on. 1293 01:02:19,560 --> 01:02:21,440 Speaker 4: No, I feel bad for Brian Farrens. 1294 01:02:21,480 --> 01:02:23,200 Speaker 3: And then also, you know, with all the injuries, I 1295 01:02:23,200 --> 01:02:25,840 Speaker 3: don't know what else they're gonna do, but yeah, Michigan 1296 01:02:26,320 --> 01:02:28,320 Speaker 3: they you know, it's you know. And then of course 1297 01:02:28,360 --> 01:02:31,320 Speaker 3: you have the Jim Harbaugh coming back thing, and Jim Harbaugh, 1298 01:02:31,640 --> 01:02:34,440 Speaker 3: I mean, he's gonna want to he is going, you know, 1299 01:02:34,960 --> 01:02:37,480 Speaker 3: who is a Joaquin Phoenix and gladiator? 1300 01:02:37,640 --> 01:02:38,960 Speaker 4: You know where he puts the thumb out and then 1301 01:02:39,000 --> 01:02:39,920 Speaker 4: he gets to decide who. 1302 01:02:40,080 --> 01:02:42,240 Speaker 3: You know, I wouldn't want to be on the other 1303 01:02:42,320 --> 01:02:45,760 Speaker 3: sideline of this game because Iowa can only do one thing, 1304 01:02:46,120 --> 01:02:51,040 Speaker 3: which is run the bob mediocre ish and Michigan knows it. 1305 01:02:51,120 --> 01:02:53,800 Speaker 3: And Jim Harbaugh, who's been sitting in those hotel rooms 1306 01:02:53,800 --> 01:02:56,800 Speaker 3: the last three weeks lick at his shops to get 1307 01:02:56,800 --> 01:02:58,000 Speaker 3: back on the field. 1308 01:02:58,160 --> 01:03:00,440 Speaker 4: They are going to drop the hammer on Iowa. 1309 01:03:00,600 --> 01:03:03,080 Speaker 3: And as an Iowa grad, it brings me no pleasure 1310 01:03:03,160 --> 01:03:04,960 Speaker 3: to say, but that is what it's about to happen. 1311 01:03:04,800 --> 01:03:07,240 Speaker 1: Licking his chops and drinking whole milk and doing all 1312 01:03:07,240 --> 01:03:09,680 Speaker 1: that type of stuff as hard podcas. There you go. 1313 01:03:10,720 --> 01:03:12,880 Speaker 1: If you guys want more, you guys want to get 1314 01:03:12,920 --> 01:03:15,919 Speaker 1: prep for what is coming up. The full preview show 1315 01:03:16,000 --> 01:03:19,000 Speaker 1: coming up this week. We got Thor, we got Mike Farrell, 1316 01:03:19,040 --> 01:03:22,800 Speaker 1: we got Scott Bogman breaking down the previewed conference championship. 1317 01:03:22,800 --> 01:03:25,680 Speaker 1: You have more solidified lines. Make sure you are locked 1318 01:03:25,680 --> 01:03:29,480 Speaker 1: into the College Football Game Day podcast wherever you listen 1319 01:03:29,520 --> 01:03:32,080 Speaker 1: to podcasts, and make sure betting YouTube dot com slash 1320 01:03:32,120 --> 01:03:34,040 Speaker 1: Betting Pros it keeps screwing that up, but on the 1321 01:03:34,080 --> 01:03:37,560 Speaker 1: YouTube Betting Pros channel so you don't miss the video 1322 01:03:37,600 --> 01:03:39,480 Speaker 1: so you can get prep. Plus, we still got another 1323 01:03:39,520 --> 01:03:43,320 Speaker 1: live stream coming up on Saturday for those conference championships, 1324 01:03:43,320 --> 01:03:46,640 Speaker 1: so make sure you are tuned in there and really 1325 01:03:46,680 --> 01:03:48,800 Speaker 1: we'll see where everything else lies. You know, this is 1326 01:03:48,840 --> 01:03:52,960 Speaker 1: the final of the early lines into the season with 1327 01:03:53,000 --> 01:03:55,240 Speaker 1: the conference, but there definitely might be something in the 1328 01:03:55,240 --> 01:03:57,680 Speaker 1: future here for bowl games, so make sure you're subscribed 1329 01:03:57,760 --> 01:03:59,960 Speaker 1: you don't miss any of it. And also make sure 1330 01:04:00,080 --> 01:04:03,360 Speaker 1: you download the Betting Pros app iOS or Android so 1331 01:04:03,400 --> 01:04:05,800 Speaker 1: you not only have all the lines at your fingertips, 1332 01:04:05,920 --> 01:04:08,800 Speaker 1: you also have all of the people like Thor. You 1333 01:04:08,840 --> 01:04:11,960 Speaker 1: can sync your own bets. You can lock in not 1334 01:04:12,000 --> 01:04:14,000 Speaker 1: only your bets, but you can see what Thor has 1335 01:04:14,040 --> 01:04:16,520 Speaker 1: got you can tail them, you can see what lines 1336 01:04:16,520 --> 01:04:20,240 Speaker 1: were set, you can get notifications on certain markers that 1337 01:04:20,320 --> 01:04:23,160 Speaker 1: you want. Really, it is a crazy, crazy robust tool, 1338 01:04:23,200 --> 01:04:26,520 Speaker 1: So go and download it today Betting Pros iOS and 1339 01:04:26,520 --> 01:04:29,280 Speaker 1: Android store wherever you got the apps that's going to 1340 01:04:29,320 --> 01:04:31,240 Speaker 1: do it for the show. Thor you can find on 1341 01:04:31,280 --> 01:04:35,440 Speaker 1: Twitter at thorku Proton cf Roton. I'm Chris Welsh on 1342 01:04:35,520 --> 01:04:37,240 Speaker 1: Twitter at is it the Welsh. Thank you guys so 1343 01:04:37,320 --> 01:04:39,560 Speaker 1: much for hanging out with us and spending this season 1344 01:04:39,600 --> 01:04:41,560 Speaker 1: with us. Good luck in your bets. We'll talk to 1345 01:04:41,600 --> 01:04:44,560 Speaker 1: you later this week right here on Betting Pros by friends. 1346 01:04:45,320 --> 01:04:48,040 Speaker 6: Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you 1347 01:04:48,120 --> 01:04:50,480 Speaker 6: love the show, the best freeway to support us is 1348 01:04:50,480 --> 01:04:53,880 Speaker 6: by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. 1349 01:04:54,240 --> 01:04:56,840 Speaker 6: Follow us on x and TikTok at Betting Pros and 1350 01:04:56,960 --> 01:05:00,600 Speaker 6: Instagram at Betting Pros NFL. Also subscribe to our YouTube 1351 01:05:00,680 --> 01:05:04,560 Speaker 6: channel at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros