WEBVTT - Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Julia Pollak & Claudia Sahm

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>Single bust idea into a jobs report. This was the

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<v Speaker 2>adverb Jobs Report. And then it came out and I

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<v Speaker 2>saw market economists just simply staring at a boom American

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<v Speaker 2>labor economy. There's no other way to put it. I

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<v Speaker 2>don't have the data in front of me, but in

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<v Speaker 2>the twenty thirty forty market economists reports, we get from

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<v Speaker 2>say eighth forty out to nine o'clock, maybe nine to ten.

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<v Speaker 2>It was extraordinary to see, astonishing the headline from Bloomberg,

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<v Speaker 2>a roaring roar, the economy's roaring, the labor economy's roaring.

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<v Speaker 2>And yet so much of the pushback I got, and

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<v Speaker 2>particularly out on live chat, on YouTube search, Bloomberg Podcasts,

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<v Speaker 2>live chat, people are saying, maybe not leading away Torsten

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<v Speaker 2>Slock and Apollo this morning showing a difference in labor

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<v Speaker 2>growth of foreign employees versus native employees, and just plain

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<v Speaker 2>and simple, it's a stark contrast. My answer is to

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<v Speaker 2>speak to different people. And yes, there's there's market economists

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<v Speaker 2>and Wall Street economists and all that, and then if

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<v Speaker 2>you go to somebody like Zip recruiter and they're doing

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<v Speaker 2>it differently, they're digitally looking incredibly granular digital trends. And

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<v Speaker 2>Julia Pollock's there. She's a legit economist at ZIP recruiter,

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<v Speaker 2>and she summarized a report saying it was more than constructive.

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<v Speaker 2>Let's listen.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, I think the fed orser will be pretty happy

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<v Speaker 1>to see this data. I mean, their dual mandate, after all,

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<v Speaker 1>is to keep the labor market strong and prices under control.

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<v Speaker 1>And this report seems to say we can do both.

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<v Speaker 1>We can walk and show them we can create lots

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<v Speaker 1>and lots of jobs and have a healthy economy without

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<v Speaker 1>wage growth causing a wage price spiral. So I think

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<v Speaker 1>three cuts are not off the table after this report.

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<v Speaker 2>Boy, there's some heated opinions on that. I would really look,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, the look ahead if you will, through the

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<v Speaker 2>weekend and into April, towards the May one meeting. I

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<v Speaker 2>think you're going to see massive rewriting of people's views

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<v Speaker 2>here on the rate cuts. Three rate cuts, maybe more.

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<v Speaker 2>City group by no looking for a lot of rate cuts.

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<v Speaker 2>Torsten Slock was heated off of this reported Apollo. He

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<v Speaker 2>does not see a rate cut in the cards, and

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<v Speaker 2>there's fourteen flavors in between that you get to pick

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<v Speaker 2>from as well. We digressed within wonderful coverage. Thank you

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<v Speaker 2>Lindsey Piigs of Stifl, Neil dudda it Renaissance, Macro really

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<v Speaker 2>trumpeting a better than good American economy, and any number

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<v Speaker 2>of other guests. Today, I'm Bloomberg Surveillance, and I really

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<v Speaker 2>said to our team, I said to Bob and Eric

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<v Speaker 2>and the team, I said, we got to get on

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<v Speaker 2>somebody who wrote the essay of the week. The essay

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<v Speaker 2>of the week was in Bloomberg Opinion and it was

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<v Speaker 2>Claudia sum out of Michigan and the course with all

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<v Speaker 2>work at the FED. You know her from the acclaimed

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<v Speaker 2>Psalm rule of trying to figure out when the recession's

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<v Speaker 2>are going to show up. Recession shows up when the

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<v Speaker 2>Red Sox play under five hundred baseball. We're not there yet.

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<v Speaker 2>But Claudia Sam wrote an essay on something I get

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<v Speaker 2>a ton of mail on, and that's part time versus

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<v Speaker 2>full time employment. She's really heated that part time employment

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<v Speaker 2>can be constructive. It is not something that we should

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<v Speaker 2>cast negatively. She was very good on that. And then

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<v Speaker 2>we turn to what's immediate right now politically and economically

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<v Speaker 2>in the nation, which is immigration and migration.

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<v Speaker 3>Immigrants are one of the heroes in this labor market recovery.

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<v Speaker 3>You don't see the headlines anymore about the labor shortages.

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<v Speaker 3>We got more labor, not fewer customers. That's what the

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<v Speaker 3>FED does. Immigrants are not the only group, but they

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<v Speaker 3>have come in big time and taken jobs that were open.

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<v Speaker 3>We have not seen the unemployment rates for US born

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<v Speaker 3>individuals rising. It's more for the no and more it cakind.

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<v Speaker 3>It takes a little while to get all the papers

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<v Speaker 3>or find the job. So really they solved a big

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<v Speaker 3>problem and are taking pressure off of employment. So when

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<v Speaker 3>we think about them in the labor market and they're

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<v Speaker 3>doing some real good.

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<v Speaker 2>Claudiss'm in a granularity of the political economics of our

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<v Speaker 2>labor economy. Single best idea. We're really thrilled with this podcast.

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<v Speaker 2>Thank you so much for the response. What are we

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