1 00:00:02,400 --> 00:00:17,600 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:12,400 --> 00:00:17,000 Speaker 2: Single bust idea into a jobs report. This was the 3 00:00:17,040 --> 00:00:21,360 Speaker 2: adverb Jobs Report. And then it came out and I 4 00:00:21,400 --> 00:00:27,040 Speaker 2: saw market economists just simply staring at a boom American 5 00:00:27,120 --> 00:00:29,120 Speaker 2: labor economy. There's no other way to put it. I 6 00:00:29,160 --> 00:00:31,520 Speaker 2: don't have the data in front of me, but in 7 00:00:31,560 --> 00:00:35,000 Speaker 2: the twenty thirty forty market economists reports, we get from 8 00:00:35,040 --> 00:00:38,760 Speaker 2: say eighth forty out to nine o'clock, maybe nine to ten. 9 00:00:39,479 --> 00:00:43,080 Speaker 2: It was extraordinary to see, astonishing the headline from Bloomberg, 10 00:00:43,200 --> 00:00:48,120 Speaker 2: a roaring roar, the economy's roaring, the labor economy's roaring. 11 00:00:48,680 --> 00:00:50,960 Speaker 2: And yet so much of the pushback I got, and 12 00:00:50,960 --> 00:00:54,320 Speaker 2: particularly out on live chat, on YouTube search, Bloomberg Podcasts, 13 00:00:54,720 --> 00:00:59,000 Speaker 2: live chat, people are saying, maybe not leading away Torsten 14 00:00:59,080 --> 00:01:03,040 Speaker 2: Slock and Apollo this morning showing a difference in labor 15 00:01:03,080 --> 00:01:08,360 Speaker 2: growth of foreign employees versus native employees, and just plain 16 00:01:08,400 --> 00:01:13,040 Speaker 2: and simple, it's a stark contrast. My answer is to 17 00:01:13,080 --> 00:01:16,039 Speaker 2: speak to different people. And yes, there's there's market economists 18 00:01:16,080 --> 00:01:19,000 Speaker 2: and Wall Street economists and all that, and then if 19 00:01:19,000 --> 00:01:22,760 Speaker 2: you go to somebody like Zip recruiter and they're doing 20 00:01:22,800 --> 00:01:27,480 Speaker 2: it differently, they're digitally looking incredibly granular digital trends. And 21 00:01:27,600 --> 00:01:31,560 Speaker 2: Julia Pollock's there. She's a legit economist at ZIP recruiter, 22 00:01:32,080 --> 00:01:36,280 Speaker 2: and she summarized a report saying it was more than constructive. 23 00:01:36,360 --> 00:01:36,919 Speaker 2: Let's listen. 24 00:01:37,000 --> 00:01:39,000 Speaker 1: Well, I think the fed orser will be pretty happy 25 00:01:39,040 --> 00:01:42,240 Speaker 1: to see this data. I mean, their dual mandate, after all, 26 00:01:42,520 --> 00:01:46,560 Speaker 1: is to keep the labor market strong and prices under control. 27 00:01:46,600 --> 00:01:48,680 Speaker 1: And this report seems to say we can do both. 28 00:01:48,760 --> 00:01:51,120 Speaker 1: We can walk and show them we can create lots 29 00:01:51,160 --> 00:01:54,120 Speaker 1: and lots of jobs and have a healthy economy without 30 00:01:54,760 --> 00:01:59,680 Speaker 1: wage growth causing a wage price spiral. So I think 31 00:02:00,200 --> 00:02:02,919 Speaker 1: three cuts are not off the table after this report. 32 00:02:03,160 --> 00:02:05,800 Speaker 2: Boy, there's some heated opinions on that. I would really look, 33 00:02:05,880 --> 00:02:07,920 Speaker 2: you know, the look ahead if you will, through the 34 00:02:07,920 --> 00:02:12,040 Speaker 2: weekend and into April, towards the May one meeting. I 35 00:02:12,040 --> 00:02:15,720 Speaker 2: think you're going to see massive rewriting of people's views 36 00:02:15,760 --> 00:02:18,120 Speaker 2: here on the rate cuts. Three rate cuts, maybe more. 37 00:02:18,160 --> 00:02:20,600 Speaker 2: City group by no looking for a lot of rate cuts. 38 00:02:20,600 --> 00:02:24,160 Speaker 2: Torsten Slock was heated off of this reported Apollo. He 39 00:02:24,200 --> 00:02:26,760 Speaker 2: does not see a rate cut in the cards, and 40 00:02:26,800 --> 00:02:29,600 Speaker 2: there's fourteen flavors in between that you get to pick 41 00:02:29,680 --> 00:02:34,160 Speaker 2: from as well. We digressed within wonderful coverage. Thank you 42 00:02:34,240 --> 00:02:39,000 Speaker 2: Lindsey Piigs of Stifl, Neil dudda it Renaissance, Macro really 43 00:02:39,040 --> 00:02:43,520 Speaker 2: trumpeting a better than good American economy, and any number 44 00:02:43,600 --> 00:02:47,679 Speaker 2: of other guests. Today, I'm Bloomberg Surveillance, and I really 45 00:02:47,760 --> 00:02:49,760 Speaker 2: said to our team, I said to Bob and Eric 46 00:02:49,800 --> 00:02:51,560 Speaker 2: and the team, I said, we got to get on 47 00:02:51,600 --> 00:02:54,600 Speaker 2: somebody who wrote the essay of the week. The essay 48 00:02:54,600 --> 00:02:57,400 Speaker 2: of the week was in Bloomberg Opinion and it was 49 00:02:57,440 --> 00:02:59,880 Speaker 2: Claudia sum out of Michigan and the course with all 50 00:03:00,120 --> 00:03:02,200 Speaker 2: work at the FED. You know her from the acclaimed 51 00:03:02,639 --> 00:03:05,279 Speaker 2: Psalm rule of trying to figure out when the recession's 52 00:03:05,840 --> 00:03:07,919 Speaker 2: are going to show up. Recession shows up when the 53 00:03:07,960 --> 00:03:10,560 Speaker 2: Red Sox play under five hundred baseball. We're not there yet. 54 00:03:11,480 --> 00:03:14,799 Speaker 2: But Claudia Sam wrote an essay on something I get 55 00:03:14,840 --> 00:03:16,919 Speaker 2: a ton of mail on, and that's part time versus 56 00:03:17,000 --> 00:03:21,080 Speaker 2: full time employment. She's really heated that part time employment 57 00:03:21,600 --> 00:03:25,919 Speaker 2: can be constructive. It is not something that we should 58 00:03:25,960 --> 00:03:29,160 Speaker 2: cast negatively. She was very good on that. And then 59 00:03:29,200 --> 00:03:33,200 Speaker 2: we turn to what's immediate right now politically and economically 60 00:03:33,240 --> 00:03:36,200 Speaker 2: in the nation, which is immigration and migration. 61 00:03:36,760 --> 00:03:40,800 Speaker 3: Immigrants are one of the heroes in this labor market recovery. 62 00:03:41,280 --> 00:03:44,240 Speaker 3: You don't see the headlines anymore about the labor shortages. 63 00:03:44,640 --> 00:03:47,520 Speaker 3: We got more labor, not fewer customers. That's what the 64 00:03:47,520 --> 00:03:50,280 Speaker 3: FED does. Immigrants are not the only group, but they 65 00:03:50,320 --> 00:03:54,240 Speaker 3: have come in big time and taken jobs that were open. 66 00:03:54,960 --> 00:03:57,480 Speaker 3: We have not seen the unemployment rates for US born 67 00:03:57,600 --> 00:04:00,640 Speaker 3: individuals rising. It's more for the no and more it cakind. 68 00:04:00,640 --> 00:04:02,320 Speaker 3: It takes a little while to get all the papers 69 00:04:02,680 --> 00:04:06,000 Speaker 3: or find the job. So really they solved a big 70 00:04:06,120 --> 00:04:09,080 Speaker 3: problem and are taking pressure off of employment. So when 71 00:04:09,080 --> 00:04:12,120 Speaker 3: we think about them in the labor market and they're 72 00:04:12,160 --> 00:04:13,440 Speaker 3: doing some real good. 73 00:04:13,800 --> 00:04:17,360 Speaker 2: Claudiss'm in a granularity of the political economics of our 74 00:04:17,440 --> 00:04:22,000 Speaker 2: labor economy. Single best idea. We're really thrilled with this podcast. 75 00:04:22,000 --> 00:04:23,680 Speaker 2: Thank you so much for the response. What are we 76 00:04:23,720 --> 00:04:26,279 Speaker 2: doing here? There's a lot of podcasts out there that 77 00:04:26,320 --> 00:04:28,920 Speaker 2: are twelve twenty twenty five minutes long. Take a look 78 00:04:28,920 --> 00:04:32,360 Speaker 2: at Big Take, David Gerra, Strong Week, Eric shatsker On 79 00:04:32,440 --> 00:04:36,320 Speaker 2: Hertz and David Gurra featuring the work of our John 80 00:04:36,520 --> 00:04:40,479 Speaker 2: Michelthwaite and Buenos Aires with the leadership of Argentina, but 81 00:04:40,680 --> 00:04:42,760 Speaker 2: we're trying to do something shorter here to fit into 82 00:04:42,839 --> 00:04:46,160 Speaker 2: your podcast listening out on Apple, you're going to see 83 00:04:46,160 --> 00:04:48,880 Speaker 2: a podcast to six or seven minutes, which we think 84 00:04:48,960 --> 00:04:51,680 Speaker 2: fits into a busy day of trying to get a 85 00:04:51,680 --> 00:04:54,279 Speaker 2: few voices. In our case, we're doing two voices off 86 00:04:54,320 --> 00:04:57,919 Speaker 2: of the show across three hours. The show is on 87 00:04:58,000 --> 00:05:01,240 Speaker 2: Apple car Play, search the Blue Blloomberg Business app. It's 88 00:05:01,279 --> 00:05:07,120 Speaker 2: free and also on YouTube. You search on YouTube Bloomberg Podcasts, 89 00:05:07,600 --> 00:05:10,039 Speaker 2: and as a white screen it says Bloomberg Surveillance and 90 00:05:10,080 --> 00:05:11,960 Speaker 2: that gets you to us seven to ten am. We 91 00:05:12,000 --> 00:05:15,200 Speaker 2: are working on a feed of the show that will 92 00:05:15,240 --> 00:05:17,799 Speaker 2: be on afterwards. A lot of other projects we're working 93 00:05:17,839 --> 00:05:21,440 Speaker 2: on right now, but we are just really pleased with 94 00:05:21,560 --> 00:05:25,640 Speaker 2: the new digital distribution we have of Bloomberg Surveillance and 95 00:05:25,720 --> 00:05:28,640 Speaker 2: something new we're doing. Thank you for listening, and please 96 00:05:28,640 --> 00:05:33,680 Speaker 2: subscribe to Single Best Idea