Speaker 1: Now from our nation's capital. This is Bloomberg Sound On.
Speaker 1: Even if that number is naketive, we are not in
Speaker 1: a recession now because we're seeing the strength of the
Speaker 1: economy and the labor market. Republicans are going to want
Speaker 1: to blame a recession on Joe Biden, and the White
Speaker 1: House is going to push back and say yes. But
Speaker 1: look at job Bloomberg sound On Politics, policy and perspective
Speaker 1: from DC's top name. Couldn't be more grateful to have
Speaker 1: had the privilege to be Vice president in the most
Speaker 1: pro life administration in American history. Over the past two years,
Speaker 1: the world has seen the radical left's agenda in action,
Speaker 1: and it's been very sad to what Bloomberg Sound On
Speaker 1: with Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio Washington argues over the
Speaker 1: definition of a recession. Welcome to the fastest hour in politics,
Speaker 1: Just days before an expected negative reading on GDP and
Speaker 1: a White House trying to get ahead of the news.
Speaker 1: We'll go to school with Bloomberg Economics editor Michael McKee,
Speaker 1: and we'll talk to Marks, the chief economist at Moody's Analytics.
Speaker 1: Mike Pant's speaking today in Washington. Donald Trump will do
Speaker 1: the same tomorrow. Is it a forecast for we'll discuss
Speaker 1: with GOP strategist Jennifer Kerns and our signature panel Bloomberg
Speaker 1: Politics contributors Jeanie Chanzano and Rick Davis with us for
Speaker 1: the hour. President Biden continues his recovery from COVID. White
Speaker 1: House kicked out a tweet showing and working on the
Speaker 1: balcony with the suit and aviators and the dog for
Speaker 1: that matter, nearby this morning, and then the President spoke
Speaker 1: a little later saying he's feeling fine. He was addressing
Speaker 1: an event about the Chip Act virtually, of course, and
Speaker 1: he's not alone with this. If you haven't heard Senators
Speaker 1: Joe Manchin and Lisa Murkowski both announcing they've tested positive.
Speaker 1: So Manchin could make life even more difficult for Democrats,
Speaker 1: as his in person vote would be needed for never
Speaker 1: mind uh negotiating a reconciliation plan. Of course, this was
Speaker 1: already challenged by inflation and growing expectations for a recession.
Speaker 1: Not that everyone sees a recession the same way. Listen
Speaker 1: to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Meet the Press. A
Speaker 1: common definition of recession is too negative quarters of GDP
Speaker 1: growth or at least that's something that's been true in
Speaker 1: past recessions. When we've seen that there has usually been
Speaker 1: a recession. And many economists expect second quarter g d
Speaker 1: P to be negative. First quarter g d P was negative,
Speaker 1: Yes it was, and two in a row. Well there
Speaker 1: you are. Now. The RNC was quick to pounce on
Speaker 1: what they see here as a White House trying to
Speaker 1: change the definition before GDP comes out Thursday. Even Michael Burry,
Speaker 1: you know, big short fame call about the White House
Speaker 1: on Twitter over this. So for those of us, uh, well,
Speaker 1: I mean we should hear from Janet Yellen again. This
Speaker 1: is again on Meet the Press with the back and forth.
Speaker 1: Listen to the back and forth with Chuck Todd. I
Speaker 1: would you know one that we should be um not
Speaker 1: not characterizing that as a recession, but you're splitting hairs.
Speaker 1: I mean, if the technical definition is two quarters of contraction,
Speaker 1: you're saying that's not a recession. That's not the take.
Speaker 1: That's not the technical definition. Okay, And that was noted
Speaker 1: in the White House blog last week, by the way,
Speaker 1: which got all of this going. Karine John Pierre followed
Speaker 1: up on it, and now the interview on Meet the
Speaker 1: Press with Janet Yellen. So the White House is wrestling
Speaker 1: with this definition publicly at least of a recession. And
Speaker 1: so for those of us who are not economists, we
Speaker 1: thought we would go to school to start things off
Speaker 1: before we talk to Marks Andy a quick lesson with
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Economics editor Mike McKee. Alright, professor McKee, what is
Speaker 1: a recession? Well, we can tell you what a recession
Speaker 1: is not officially two quarters of consecutive contraction. That's sort
Speaker 1: of a longstanding common definition. That isn't what economists use.
Speaker 1: The economists favorite is the Bureau Economic Researchers traditional definition,
Speaker 1: which is a significant decline in economic activity spread across
Speaker 1: the economy that lasts more than a few months. They
Speaker 1: use about eight different indicators to decide whether or not
Speaker 1: we've seen that kind of decline and how long would
Speaker 1: it take for them to determine that. It often takes
Speaker 1: up to a year after it begins for them to
Speaker 1: know because so much of our economic data is revised,
Speaker 1: and so it's hard for the FED to know exactly
Speaker 1: where we are at any one time, and NBR doesn't either,
Speaker 1: so they wait. Professor Mike McKie, thank you so much.
Speaker 1: I'll bring an apple next time, Okay. And that's where
Speaker 1: we begin with Mark Zandi, chief economists at Moody's Analytics. Smark,
Speaker 1: welcome back. It's good to be with you, Joe. Thanks
Speaker 1: for having so. We've been talking for months about whether
Speaker 1: the US is heading for a recession. Is the Fed Titans?
Speaker 1: But now we're arguing over the definition of a recession.
Speaker 1: And based on what I'm seeing from you on Twitter, A,
Speaker 1: you do expect a negative number this week in G D,
Speaker 1: P and B, it will not mean that we are
Speaker 1: in a recession this time around. How come? Uh? Jobs? Uh?
Speaker 1: You know we're creating a boatloaded jobs. I mean, through
Speaker 1: the month of June we were creating an average of
Speaker 1: four or five thousand a month, and typically you might
Speaker 1: create a hundred thousand. Layoffs are a record low. I
Speaker 1: can go through a lot of data, but you agree
Speaker 1: with what Janet Yellen has been saying. She's saying that
Speaker 1: this is we're not in recession. Correct, because of the
Speaker 1: strength and the jobs data, the fact that we have
Speaker 1: such a low unemployment rate and consumer spending and so forth.
Speaker 1: I'm not an economist, That's why I call you. Does
Speaker 1: this mean that we were all taught and oversimplified, if
Speaker 1: not false definition of a recession. Indeed you are, Yeah,
Speaker 1: it's a rule of thumb. Yeah, I don't think that
Speaker 1: was econ one on one, but it might been a
Speaker 1: econe I'm not sure. But now it's you know, it's
Speaker 1: a great rule of thumb. Two quarters of consecutive declines,
Speaker 1: and that's helped in the past to peg recessions. Easy
Speaker 1: to get your mind around. But at the end of
Speaker 1: the day, here in the US, the arbiters, the Business
Speaker 1: Cycle Dating Committee, a group of academic economist at the
Speaker 1: National Beeer of Economic Research, and they need define a recession,
Speaker 1: I think appropriately, so as a broad based, persistent decline
Speaker 1: in economic activity. I'm paraphrasing, so I may not have
Speaker 1: the words exactly right, but that's the spirit of it.
Speaker 1: When you have a lot of jobs, you have low
Speaker 1: layoffs from a lot of consumers, spending income growth is strong.
Speaker 1: That's not consistent with a recession. This, this is not
Speaker 1: a recession. And but by the way, this is a
Speaker 1: trumpet forecast, and you'll have to have me on a
Speaker 1: few years from now to prove it over one or
Speaker 1: the other. But I think this day is gonna be revised.
Speaker 1: You know, it gets subject to significant revision over the years,
Speaker 1: and I suspect it will be revised up because there
Speaker 1: are other ways of measuring the same thing, and they
Speaker 1: are saying something completely different than the GDP data that
Speaker 1: the gross Domestic income data is saying. Oh no, we
Speaker 1: grow and actually grew pretty strongly, you know, throughout this pandemic,
Speaker 1: including in the first half of this year. You see
Speaker 1: American consumers are the firewall. How long can that last? Uh?
Speaker 1: I think I can. I can't last forever. I mean,
Speaker 1: if inflation doesn't moderate, I think by late this year
Speaker 1: early next, the firewall is gonna come down and we're
Speaker 1: gonna go into recession. So we need to get inflation
Speaker 1: back headed south. Here. It feels like it's moving in
Speaker 1: that direction. Gas prices are done a lot, you know,
Speaker 1: over the last four or six eight weeks, so it
Speaker 1: feels like, you know, we're coming off the boil. But
Speaker 1: that's got to happen. If it doesn't, consumers are gonna,
Speaker 1: you know, just their purchasing power is gonna road to
Speaker 1: such a point they're gonna blow through all their excess
Speaker 1: saving they piled up during the pandemic, and they're gonna
Speaker 1: their sentiments going to collapse and we'll go into recession.
Speaker 1: So we've got you know, three six, nine months, but
Speaker 1: we need inflation back down. Well, having been around politics
Speaker 1: as much as you have, you know the definition of
Speaker 1: a recession that Republicans are going to use in this case.
Speaker 1: They're gonna say, yeah, here's the here's the proof. This
Speaker 1: is Joe Biden's recession. How do you argue with that
Speaker 1: it's not a recession. I mean, I don't know how
Speaker 1: I argue with that. But when perception is reality and politics,
Speaker 1: this is not an economics one on one or one
Speaker 1: or two class. This is most people are going to
Speaker 1: hear Republican members of Congress and senators saying this pretend
Speaker 1: presidential candidates, and this is just makes life a lot
Speaker 1: more difficult for this White House in messaging, you know,
Speaker 1: going out to teach everybody what's going on, right, Oh yeah,
Speaker 1: you no, absolutely, and fort time just the economists, not
Speaker 1: the politician, and I don't have to worry about the
Speaker 1: messaging per se. But you know, look, people have jobs.
Speaker 1: Unemployment is incredibly low, layoffs were rock bottom. You know
Speaker 1: throughout the first half of this year. You know, people
Speaker 1: were spending. You know, stock prices are down, no doubt,
Speaker 1: but aus prices were up. So people are you know,
Speaker 1: pretty wealthy? Are their debtloads are very low? They locked
Speaker 1: in those previously low interest rates through REEFINI and saying so,
Speaker 1: you know, just for the typical person trying to figure out,
Speaker 1: you know, where they would land in this debate. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I don't like paying five dollars for a gawn of
Speaker 1: gasoline and I'm very upset about it. Rightly so. And
Speaker 1: this inflation is a real problem. But just think about
Speaker 1: it for a second. You know everyone's employed. Um, you know, uh,
Speaker 1: is that a recession? No? Right? As you well know,
Speaker 1: Larry Summers has been at odds uh with this administration
Speaker 1: over inflation, at odds with the Fed and even with
Speaker 1: the likelihood of recession, he says, it's highly unlikely that
Speaker 1: the Fed can pull off a soft landing. How can
Speaker 1: these two economists, Summers and Yelling, both Democrats, be so
Speaker 1: far apart? Well, I mean this is a tricky time, right,
Speaker 1: and I mean, look, recession risks are high. Inflation is
Speaker 1: a problem. We do we need a little bit of luck.
Speaker 1: We need all prices to get head and lower. That
Speaker 1: means you know, the problem, the worst of the fallout
Speaker 1: from the Russian invasion has to be behind us, and
Speaker 1: you know, there's a lot of reasons to be nervous
Speaker 1: about that. You use sanctions, you know, lots of different things.
Speaker 1: And the pandemic, you know, the pandemic is still launch,
Speaker 1: still creating havoc in China, where you know, a lot
Speaker 1: of the world's supply chains begin. And that's you know,
Speaker 1: we're bating back on us. We need a little bit
Speaker 1: of luck on the pandemic and on the Russian invasion.
Speaker 1: I think, actually correctly, I'm wrong, Joe, but I think
Speaker 1: the Treasury Secretary Yelling actually used that phrase. We needed
Speaker 1: a bit of a little bit of luck, and he's right.
Speaker 1: And that's why recession risk awfully high, because things could
Speaker 1: definitely go throw us. And and that's those are the
Speaker 1: known unknowns, right, What about the unknown unowns? I mean,
Speaker 1: I had this nightmare that we're gonna have a Cat
Speaker 1: five hurricane blows through the Gulf and wipe out a
Speaker 1: refinery on the Texas coast, and you know that that
Speaker 1: will send gas prices right back over five bucks and
Speaker 1: we'll probably go in So when you're on the knife sedge.
Speaker 1: That's all it takes. But I'd throw another one back
Speaker 1: at you. How about B A five. How concerned are
Speaker 1: you about another wave of COVID that actually did impact
Speaker 1: business is the way it did the first time? Yeah,
Speaker 1: I mean that goes to the pandemic, right, I mean,
Speaker 1: I I think my sense is people aren't going to
Speaker 1: hospitals to the same to a significant degree. As such,
Speaker 1: I think here in the US and most of the
Speaker 1: world will be will just navigate through. It's you know,
Speaker 1: not no no fun, and it's gonna be disruptive, and
Speaker 1: you know, it just adds to our general angst. But
Speaker 1: the real problem is China, right, because China still has
Speaker 1: that no COVID policy. If they have any cases, they
Speaker 1: shut down shutdowns or shutdowns. Yeah. And lastly, do foresee
Speaker 1: a real risk of recession next year? Is that safe
Speaker 1: to say? Yeah? Oh yeah, I think recession risk are
Speaker 1: very close to even and and in fact, it feels
Speaker 1: like it's if we're gonna have a recession as closer,
Speaker 1: it's sooner rather than later. It's not going to be
Speaker 1: a year from now. It's gonna be you know, sometime
Speaker 1: in the next six months. Mark Sandy Moody's analytics. It's
Speaker 1: always our great pleasure. Thanks for coming back to talk
Speaker 1: to son Bloomberg anytime. Joe, thank you. And how about
Speaker 1: the President himself? He weighed in virtually, of course, during
Speaker 1: an event today at the White House. Asked about Thursday's
Speaker 1: g d P report, here he is, we're in our
Speaker 1: community recession and my view, uh we are. The employment
Speaker 1: rate is still on the lowest we've had in history,
Speaker 1: to the three point six area. We still find ourselves
Speaker 1: of people investing. Uh my. My hope is we go
Speaker 1: from this rapid growth to a steady growth and uh
Speaker 1: so see we'll see some coming down, but I don't
Speaker 1: think we're going to God, William, I don't think we're
Speaker 1: going to see a recession. We'll assemble the panel next
Speaker 1: for the take on this. Genie Chanzano and Rick Davis
Speaker 1: are with us Bloomberg Politics contributors will check markets and
Speaker 1: traffic along the way. I'm Joe Matthew and Washington. This
Speaker 1: is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg. So long with Joe Matthew
Speaker 1: on Bloomberg Radio. So much for the Pence Trump showdown
Speaker 1: this week here in Washington. The Heritage Foundation now says
Speaker 1: Mike Pence couldn't make it because of severe weather and
Speaker 1: flight delays. They've postponed the whole thing supposed to be
Speaker 1: talking this hour, so he will not be providing the
Speaker 1: preamble for Donald Trump tomorrow in d C. And we'll
Speaker 1: have more on that later this hour with Republican strategist
Speaker 1: Jennifer Kerns. This is sound On. Thanks for joining us,
Speaker 1: the fastest hour in politics. Now, we went to school
Speaker 1: with Michael McKee. We talked to Mark Zany, and we
Speaker 1: assemble our panel with Rick Davis and Jennie Schanzano Bloomberg
Speaker 1: Politics contributors on this whole attempt by the White House
Speaker 1: to try to well give us a different look at
Speaker 1: the idea of a recession ahead of Thursday's economic data. Genie,
Speaker 1: as a communicator here in an academic what do you
Speaker 1: make of this process? You start about a week out here.
Speaker 1: It was in a White House blog post, then it
Speaker 1: came up in the briefing room with Karine Jean Pierre,
Speaker 1: you guys trying to redefine recession, and now this week, uh,
Speaker 1: it's it's it's in the air. Janet Yellen talks about
Speaker 1: it on Sunday and suddenly it's not two consecutive quarters
Speaker 1: of negative growth. There's all kinds of factors. Is that
Speaker 1: going to get into the brains of Americans by Thursday?
Speaker 1: You know, unfortunately it's not. And I think they need
Speaker 1: Professor McKee to get over there and to clarify exactly
Speaker 1: what it is. But you know, the problem for this
Speaker 1: White House, and and I think you know, we can
Speaker 1: all be empathetic to this, is that they're trying to
Speaker 1: do two things. On the one hand, they want to
Speaker 1: empathize with people, and on the other hand, they want
Speaker 1: to point to the good things going on. And unfortunately,
Speaker 1: I think Janet Yellen got caught in a trap in
Speaker 1: you know, Meet the Press, where she was trying to
Speaker 1: argue about a definition versus letting people know that she understands.
Speaker 1: The White House most importantly understands and is ready to
Speaker 1: address the incredible pain people are feeling everything they do shopping,
Speaker 1: buying a house, renting an apartment, whatever it is. So
Speaker 1: you know, it's a difficult line for them to walk,
Speaker 1: but they're going to have to do a better job
Speaker 1: of doing that. And we understand the definitions of these
Speaker 1: things are complicated, but that's not what the American public
Speaker 1: are going to be thinking about. Well, and you look,
Speaker 1: I guess most of us uh learned in high school
Speaker 1: one one way to look at this, Rick and I
Speaker 1: you know, I understand two consecutive quarters as an indicator
Speaker 1: and a typically reliable one, But it does not define
Speaker 1: a recession. Does that matter? Oh? I think that this
Speaker 1: is what they're pushing back on and and and certainly
Speaker 1: the modern media, excluding Bloomberg, will rush to judgment by
Speaker 1: using that uh, that standard world will be everywhere. Right.
Speaker 1: But yeah, but look, I mean we shouldn't be surprised
Speaker 1: because this is the same administration it got you know, uh,
Speaker 1: inflation called transient and that didn't work out very well
Speaker 1: for him. Now they're claiming there is no recession, and
Speaker 1: we can only hope they're right. But but they lack
Speaker 1: the credibility on this, right. I mean, you know, I
Speaker 1: don't think Yelling made a mistake. I think she was
Speaker 1: like sticking to the White House talking points. You know,
Speaker 1: we're gonna say there's no recession until you know, we're
Speaker 1: proven wrong. And they were proven wrong on inflation, and
Speaker 1: let's hope they're not wrong on recession. Well, I mean Look,
Speaker 1: we heard from Mark zany Uh and look, maybe he's
Speaker 1: political in your eyes, but we also heard from Michael
Speaker 1: McKee and they both agreed with Janet Yellen Rick. So
Speaker 1: do people just need to get smarter on the economy
Speaker 1: or is it the other way around? The White House
Speaker 1: needs to do a better job telegraphing. I think the
Speaker 1: White House has to sell They've got to telegraph this,
Speaker 1: They've got to educate the public, they've got to talk
Speaker 1: about it constantly. This is an administration where you know
Speaker 1: they're there. They have the attention span of a gnat,
Speaker 1: Like literally every day they change the topic. There's no
Speaker 1: ability to kind of stick to a message for four
Speaker 1: or five days and try and bring the public along
Speaker 1: with them. And they and they wonder why when the
Speaker 1: public has asked, you know, about their initiatives, that they're
Speaker 1: highly critical because they get confused and they really don't
Speaker 1: know what's going on next. So I think I think
Speaker 1: this administration, We've talked about it many times in the past,
Speaker 1: has had an inability to communicate to the American public effectively.
Speaker 1: Their numbers represent that they show it, they demonstrate it.
Speaker 1: Their lack of success politically lately has demonstrated that, and
Speaker 1: so the question is will they get it right between
Speaker 1: now and election day in November? And right now this
Speaker 1: seems to be the past where they're like, hey, just
Speaker 1: trust us, no recession, that's it. Well, is this sort
Speaker 1: of a shot across the bow of of many newsrooms,
Speaker 1: as I think Rick was was suggesting here, Genie, the
Speaker 1: headline has already been written in a lot of cases,
Speaker 1: recession official two consecutive quarters. You start talking about this
Speaker 1: now and maybe it doesn't show up on USA to
Speaker 1: Day or you know, or on Bloomberg. Yeah, that's right,
Speaker 1: And you know, the difficult case to make politically, as
Speaker 1: always when you're going to tell people, don't believe what
Speaker 1: you're feeling, don't believe what you see people feel pain.
Speaker 1: That's the bottom line here. It's not the White House's fault,
Speaker 1: it's not Joe Biden's fault. But as president and the administration,
Speaker 1: they take responsibility. You know, Gerald Ford wore wore that
Speaker 1: wind pin whip inflation now and Alan Greenspan said it
Speaker 1: was incredibly stupid and desperate and and it didn't do
Speaker 1: much to end it. But this is the trial of
Speaker 1: a president overseeing inflation of this kind and you know,
Speaker 1: many of our modern presidents have been lucky they haven't
Speaker 1: had to deal with Unfortunately, Joe Biden now is having
Speaker 1: to deal with it more than any president since bush
Speaker 1: In and it is a hard thing to deal with.
Speaker 1: But they've got to do a better job letting people
Speaker 1: know they're on top of it, and to Rick's point,
Speaker 1: having a consistent message that they follow through on that
Speaker 1: is critical. Letting people know they empathy as well. Rick,
Speaker 1: you mentioned talking points are Republican talking points going out
Speaker 1: today in advance of Thursday, on the assumption that's a
Speaker 1: negative number. Oh sure, I mean, and I think everybody
Speaker 1: has an anticipation that this is gonna be a tough
Speaker 1: week for the administration. These reports are going to come out,
Speaker 1: and Republicans are gonna pounce on it because they had
Speaker 1: a clean administration. Nobody was charging recession or inflation. You know,
Speaker 1: when Donald Trump was present. Doesn't mean he didn't add
Speaker 1: to the problem in the last year of his administration.
Speaker 1: But the bottom line is this is a Philip of
Speaker 1: Biden recession exactly, Rick Davis, Jeanie Schanzano, stay with us.
Speaker 1: I told you Mike Pence has Pope and strategist Jennifer
Speaker 1: Kern's I'm Joe Matthew, this is Bloomberg. Donald Trump certainly
Speaker 1: keeps flirting with the idea, though of course no one
Speaker 1: knows if he's going to run in and I guess
Speaker 1: we can say the same for Mike Pence, although they're
Speaker 1: both talking a lot like they planned to run. Mike
Speaker 1: Pence was supposed to be in d C today, as
Speaker 1: I mentioned, speaking right now, and what would have set
Speaker 1: the table as he outlines his whole policy agenda, would
Speaker 1: set the table for Donald Trump's big return tomorrow. This
Speaker 1: is his speech taking place at In America first summit
Speaker 1: that got underway today, and Trump will be speaking. This
Speaker 1: will already happen by the time we're here together tomorrow,
Speaker 1: so we can tell you what what he said, what
Speaker 1: took place. But what was set up as kind of
Speaker 1: a major duel between the two of a virtual duel,
Speaker 1: is no longer. Pence delayed, that hasn't been rescheduled yet.
Speaker 1: But at the Turning Point Action Summit a few days ago,
Speaker 1: Donald Trump, as I mentioned, still going ahead with the
Speaker 1: idea that he not only won last time, but is
Speaker 1: standing by to run this time. Here he is and
Speaker 1: did much better the second time than I did the first,
Speaker 1: getting millions and millions more votes than we did in
Speaker 1: and likewise getting more votes than any sitting president in
Speaker 1: the history of our country by far. And now we
Speaker 1: may just have to do it again. We've heard that
Speaker 1: line before. I don't expect we're gonna get a line
Speaker 1: like that from Mike Pence. But how about the timing now?
Speaker 1: Now Trump sets up the Pence speech, I wonder if
Speaker 1: that is set up for later this week. We'll let
Speaker 1: you know. Let's bring in Jennifer Kern's Republican strategist, former
Speaker 1: spokeswoman for the California Republican Party. It's great to have
Speaker 1: you with us here, Jennifer. Is this uh an opportunity
Speaker 1: lost for Mike Pence the whole weather turn here, or
Speaker 1: maybe on purpose so he could follow Donald Trump and
Speaker 1: have the last word, so to speak. Well, great to
Speaker 1: be with you, Joe. I think if Donald Trump were
Speaker 1: answering this question, he would say, oh, he did it
Speaker 1: on purpose, he had the flight, he had the flight
Speaker 1: diverted on purpose. And I think, really, really, everything you've
Speaker 1: set this table for it really does show it is
Speaker 1: shaping up to be one of the nastier and maybe
Speaker 1: even more cringe worthy battles we're going to see for
Speaker 1: the next two years all up through. Um. Look, I
Speaker 1: think it's going to be cringe worthy. The reason I
Speaker 1: say that is I think we will see some of
Speaker 1: the name calling that we saw in the election, where
Speaker 1: you know, Trump called Jeb Bush low energy and he
Speaker 1: called Marco Ruby a little Marsa. You get more nicknames.
Speaker 1: I think more nicknames and more slurs are to come,
Speaker 1: for sure. Um. But I think as much as there
Speaker 1: might be some some media interest in in Mike Pence,
Speaker 1: certainly in the wake of the January six hearings, Mike
Speaker 1: Pence's delegation is actually pretty small. And here's why. If
Speaker 1: you look at the popularity Trump has had among the
Speaker 1: GOP for the last eighteen months since he left office,
Speaker 1: He's had about ninety percent support of the GOP, and
Speaker 1: at his highest point right after he left office, even
Speaker 1: after January six, by the way, he had ninety of
Speaker 1: the GOP. Now that's changed a little bit at the
Speaker 1: January six hearings, UH say that that's cut into his
Speaker 1: his lead a little bit about a third or Republican
Speaker 1: fingers jeer his his impact at the polls with through
Speaker 1: his endorsements and so forth, have Rick Davis, for instance,
Speaker 1: you know, referring to him as Mr. Thirty five cent.
Speaker 1: So does he really own the party to that extent? Well, well,
Speaker 1: he does if you look at the polls, and if
Speaker 1: you look at the cross tabs, which we do as
Speaker 1: political consultants, and some of the numbers that are embedded
Speaker 1: in there, the America First policies ring really true to that.
Speaker 1: You also look at Trump's structure that he has. He's
Speaker 1: basically created an entire operation that is sort of a
Speaker 1: private sector White House, and that is the America First
Speaker 1: pack organizations. Um, they are ready to turn this on
Speaker 1: and and be back in the White House, and they're
Speaker 1: going to be playing in every election now through here. Also,
Speaker 1: why Mike Pence. I think we'll we'll have a tough
Speaker 1: go at it. I think he's fine taking the shrapnel
Speaker 1: from Trump. But he's more of a Lincoln project at candidate.
Speaker 1: You know, this is this is more of the moderate
Speaker 1: supermoderate you think, Mike. So Mike Pents is a moderate?
Speaker 1: He wouldn't. I mean, could Donald Trump have ever gotten
Speaker 1: the evangelical vote without him? No? But but here's the thing,
Speaker 1: politics makes strange bedfellows, right, and loyalties change, Allies change,
Speaker 1: partnerships change over time, and we're seeing just how dynamic
Speaker 1: this relationship is um And I think Trump was, you know,
Speaker 1: according to all of these accounts for hearing that he
Speaker 1: was deeply hurt. He really did think Mike Pence betrayed him,
Speaker 1: and he's going to make him pay for Mike pants
Speaker 1: really want to run for president, though, do you think
Speaker 1: or does he just want to be on the right
Speaker 1: side of history, to be the face of the other side. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I think you're onto something there. I would not be
Speaker 1: surprised if Mike Pence makes it maybe to the first
Speaker 1: presidential debate, but then drops out and go forms his
Speaker 1: own pack. He will be a thorn in the side
Speaker 1: of Trump no matter which way you look at it.
Speaker 1: I'm sure he's had conversations with the consultants who run
Speaker 1: the Lincoln Project and other things. But look, Mike Pence
Speaker 1: has another person to worry about, and this is from
Speaker 1: his other flank as well. This is Liz Cheney, another
Speaker 1: person in who is most certainly going to get the
Speaker 1: arrows from Trump. And I think she is most certainly
Speaker 1: running And I think really her opening statement to the
Speaker 1: January six Committee was really her campaign kickoff. Um, even
Speaker 1: though they're not supposed to be politicking from the dice,
Speaker 1: I think that's in effect what it was. So this
Speaker 1: would be interesting. I don't think it's what's Donald Trump
Speaker 1: talked about tomorrow. What's the in the in the space
Speaker 1: that he has Considering the way this has been framed,
Speaker 1: is this a policy speech or is this a scortched
Speaker 1: earth kind of speech? I definitely think it's a scortched
Speaker 1: earth at speech. I also think he'll have some economic
Speaker 1: points in there, once again saying I told you so.
Speaker 1: The White House has denied that these economic problems are
Speaker 1: coming for the better part of the last year. And
Speaker 1: uh and and gosh, why don't you put a guy
Speaker 1: like Donald Trump Becken who knew how to run in
Speaker 1: the commune? I think that's gonna be the crux. As
Speaker 1: you mentioned my sense, Oh, I most certainly think that
Speaker 1: he does absolutely um, you know he by name, and
Speaker 1: he'll talk about how disloyal he is. He'll he'll certainly
Speaker 1: get booze from the crowd. I think that is certainly
Speaker 1: uh in the offing, and and and yeah, he'll talk
Speaker 1: about you know, how Mike Pence doesn't represent the majority
Speaker 1: of the party. And guess what, how we know all
Speaker 1: of this? By the way, Joe follow the money right.
Speaker 1: Whenever you want to know the answer, you follow the money.
Speaker 1: I was in an event with Kevin McCarthy, the GOP
Speaker 1: leader who's criss crossing uh the nation. I always run
Speaker 1: into him in the midterm yere, we're always kind of
Speaker 1: criss crossing states. Um. And he shared that the RNC
Speaker 1: they found out pretty quickly after Trump Uh, that he
Speaker 1: was a big fundraiser six to one. How one Jennifer
Speaker 1: Kern's thank you assemble the panel. Next, you're listening to
Speaker 1: Bloomberg sound on on Bloomberg Radio. Bad weather gets the
Speaker 1: blame for keeping Mike Pence away from Washington today. It
Speaker 1: was coming down earlier. So Donald Trump will not be
Speaker 1: answering his former vice president if you will when he
Speaker 1: speaks here tomorrow, and that will be Donald Trump's a
Speaker 1: big return to Washington. Were told since leaving the White House.
Speaker 1: Let's reassemble the panel. Rick Davis and Jeanie Chanzano are
Speaker 1: with us Bloomberg Politics contributors. What do you make of
Speaker 1: of the change in timing here? If you were actually
Speaker 1: you know, helping to advise Donald Trump here, Rick, Is
Speaker 1: this an advantage in a way that that you wouldn't
Speaker 1: have if you were following him today? Well? I think
Speaker 1: you know, Donald Trump probably never looked at this as
Speaker 1: dueling speeches, right, I mean, I doubt if he gives
Speaker 1: Mike Pence much credit for actually being able to get
Speaker 1: out ahead of him and lay down, you know, a
Speaker 1: vision of the future of the Republican Party. So my
Speaker 1: guess is, with or without Mike pensive speech, Donald Trump
Speaker 1: is still going to say the same things, and you know,
Speaker 1: he's he's going to talk about his agenda. He he
Speaker 1: does basically the same thing in every rally he he does,
Speaker 1: so I suspect this will follow that sort of standard
Speaker 1: rally approach. Does he have a larger base than some
Speaker 1: people are assuming, including you know, the conversation that we
Speaker 1: just had with Jennifer Kern's uh you know, is he
Speaker 1: gonna end up being kind of a fringe candidate here
Speaker 1: in the party that that wants to once embraced him,
Speaker 1: or are there more Republicans who are looking for an alternative,
Speaker 1: uh than than the sort of nine percent support in
Speaker 1: in broad polls. Let on. Well, I don't think you'll
Speaker 1: ever be a fringe canidate. He's got a hundred and
Speaker 1: three million dollars sitting in a pack. And you know,
Speaker 1: he's got a hundred percent name I d whether you
Speaker 1: like him or not. And and I think though, what
Speaker 1: is telling is how many of his former administration appointees
Speaker 1: and governors are prepared to go out and start pushing
Speaker 1: back against him. Uh. And you know that includes probably
Speaker 1: half a dozen to a dozen members of his former
Speaker 1: cabinet who all think that they should be president United
Speaker 1: States and and are probably willing to stake a position
Speaker 1: against him even if he's a candidate. So Uh, the
Speaker 1: lack of fear within the Republican Party leadership around Donald
Speaker 1: Trump is a good indication that he's starting to lose
Speaker 1: his reach into the Republican Party, especially as a candidate
Speaker 1: for president. But you see, Mike Pence is having a
Speaker 1: base in this party somewhere. Yeah, no question. He came
Speaker 1: to the table with Trump, uh as a social conservative,
Speaker 1: you know, great ties when that was not ruined on
Speaker 1: January six. I think it had been ruined prior to
Speaker 1: January six, And I think on January six, he probably uh,
Speaker 1: demonstrated a moral superiority to the president, which probably helped
Speaker 1: him with that that community. And we saw one of
Speaker 1: his speeches in the last two weeks was down in
Speaker 1: South Carolina at Baptist Church and he talked specifically about
Speaker 1: those issues around faith and abortion that that really turned
Speaker 1: that group on. And so he has a unique ability
Speaker 1: to drive a lot of attention in that arena. He
Speaker 1: talked Jennie we we hit this on Friday, about how
Speaker 1: honored he was to work for what he described as
Speaker 1: the most pro life administration in American history. Uh. He
Speaker 1: was also expected, though, to draw clear lines in this
Speaker 1: speech today, and I suspect he will deliver it at
Speaker 1: some point in the coming days of the Heritage Foundation
Speaker 1: to say, you know, without maybe naming Donald Trump, that
Speaker 1: it's time to stop looking back. And we've seen that
Speaker 1: in the tweets that they've been sending out on behalf
Speaker 1: of Mike Pence, that he wants to be Trump with
Speaker 1: all the positives in terms of policy. And I have
Speaker 1: to underscore many Republicans are very satisfied with what Donald
Speaker 1: Trump did as president policy wise, So he's sort of
Speaker 1: Donald Trump without all the fuss, with out of the mess.
Speaker 1: And he's not back looking relitigating. He's forward looking. That's
Speaker 1: how he wants to bill himself. And you know, in
Speaker 1: this speech that Trump is giving, some people are describing
Speaker 1: as a state of the Union five point oh. And interestingly,
Speaker 1: Trump spokesperson said he's going to focus and we have
Speaker 1: to see this to believe this, but he's going to
Speaker 1: focus on one issue, primarily rising crime and public safety.
Speaker 1: And in my mind, the question is can he do
Speaker 1: that without looking back and trying to once again relitigate.
Speaker 1: I'll tell you, reliving is has gotten Donald Trump pretty
Speaker 1: far along with a lot of his supporters. Here, Rick Uh,
Speaker 1: the idea of a Mike Pence campaign, However, how long
Speaker 1: does he have to figure out whether whether he wants
Speaker 1: to do that or is it is? Is it not
Speaker 1: as simple as waiting on Donald Trump? Could you actually
Speaker 1: have these two running against each other? Sure easily envisioned
Speaker 1: the two running against each other, you know, and and
Speaker 1: and many other Republicans like de Santis from Florida announcing
Speaker 1: against Donald Trump if he chooses to run, so he
Speaker 1: doesn't clear the field. Andy that that's not in your vision. Look,
Speaker 1: if you're a secondary candidate, and you know really kind
Speaker 1: of wondering, is there an opportunity without Trump in the race,
Speaker 1: Maybe I'll go, But with Trump in it, maybe you know,
Speaker 1: there's there's less ability to raise money and garner support
Speaker 1: in early primary states. Then then maybe some of the
Speaker 1: second tier fall off. But you know, in politics is
Speaker 1: all about opportunity, and there aren't these opportunities that come
Speaker 1: around but once every four years, and so you know,
Speaker 1: sometimes don't have the luxury of waiting. And I think
Speaker 1: that's what Pence is thinking. I think he thinks that
Speaker 1: he's got a strike while the iron's hot. And and
Speaker 1: the build up you know, in the last two weeks
Speaker 1: is speech in Arizona around the governor's race there where
Speaker 1: he posted up Trump. Um, you know, his Republican Study Committee,
Speaker 1: which is kind of his base in the House, social
Speaker 1: conservatives and conservatives alike. Um, you know, that was kind
Speaker 1: of a rally for his presidential campaign. And then his
Speaker 1: social conservative speech down in South Carolina. And then you
Speaker 1: know tonight's speech that got canceled. Uh, you know, in
Speaker 1: in the Heritage Foundation. He he's acting a lot like
Speaker 1: a guy who's looking for a ticket to run in
Speaker 1: fascinating spending time with Rick and Jeanie with actually amazingly
Speaker 1: some breaking news here from Washington. The Chips Act has
Speaker 1: passed its procedural Senate vote here UH to be able
Speaker 1: to move ahead. And you know, we've been waiting for this,
Speaker 1: my goodness, for the better part of a year. There
Speaker 1: was an event today that took place at the White House.
Speaker 1: President Biden trying to push along the Chip Act, and
Speaker 1: he surrounded himself virtually. Of course, he was on screen
Speaker 1: by some White House officials like Brian Deese. Even the
Speaker 1: Deputy Defense Secretary was there. And but that's where we're going.
Speaker 1: This was framed as almost a national security event. He
Speaker 1: had the CEO of Lockheed Martin among others. They're speaking.
Speaker 1: Jim Taselet talked about the national security aspect of of
Speaker 1: this semiconductor chip shortage that we're in right now, the
Speaker 1: need to do more. Listen, because much of the production
Speaker 1: is in China and in Taiwan, access to be guaranteed
Speaker 1: for US industry, including in defense industry, is fragile. You know.
Speaker 1: She China decide to withhold its production or inhibit Taiwan
Speaker 1: from exporting its chips or building them, we would have
Speaker 1: a serious economic and eventually national security issue on our hands,
Speaker 1: and so given the long league times for producing a
Speaker 1: fab and building the factories, it is important in urgent
Speaker 1: to begin to rebuild US semiconductor chip manufacturer in the US.
Speaker 1: I find this interesting that that the timing behind this
Speaker 1: event today because it's something that we've talked about on
Speaker 1: the air quite a bit. We've asked Secretary Gina Romando
Speaker 1: about it when she's come on. We haven't asked Pentagon
Speaker 1: officials about it that you know, isn't this a major problem?
Speaker 1: We not only hear about washing machines and cars, but
Speaker 1: weapons systems, aircraft that the government, that the military needs
Speaker 1: and so forth. Uh, Genie, shouldn't White House have have
Speaker 1: done this from the beginning, taking this angle from the
Speaker 1: very beginning. They should have. And I give them credit,
Speaker 1: and I specifically give Gina Romando credit. I think she's
Speaker 1: done a masterful job helping move this through. She's even
Speaker 1: had the supportive people like former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.
Speaker 1: You know this, Yeah, this is truly a bipartisan movement.
Speaker 1: I'm not surprised it just cleared. But the argument, and
Speaker 1: Chuck Schumer made it the other day this isn't our
Speaker 1: benefit both financially and also from a national security perspective.
Speaker 1: It needs to get done. And so you're right, they
Speaker 1: are making the right move doing this now. Could they
Speaker 1: have done it sooner, sure, but you know good they
Speaker 1: did it now? Well fair enough, but my goodness has
Speaker 1: already it takes a long time to get a foundry
Speaker 1: going here. Rick and Intel has since the time this
Speaker 1: was negotiated what six months ago, has delayed, has postponed
Speaker 1: the groundbreaking on it's on its big plant in Ohio.
Speaker 1: You've got Gina Romando talking about other companies being wooed
Speaker 1: by other countries. Uh, we do and have to wait
Speaker 1: a year. Did we know we didn't have to wait
Speaker 1: a year? Um? This administration lost momentum around this by
Speaker 1: putting other things like build back Better in their way.
Speaker 1: That turned out to be an abject failure congressionally. And
Speaker 1: so now they're turning after that failure to this as
Speaker 1: a play saver. This administration has to learn it has
Speaker 1: to do more than one thing at a time. Uh.
Speaker 1: Congress is able to process these things. This was a
Speaker 1: bipartisan bill. UH could have gone through any time if
Speaker 1: the administration had turned its attention to it and worked
Speaker 1: it hard. And the idea that we've given up a
Speaker 1: year to the Chinese regardless of what it takes to
Speaker 1: build a factory, Uh, makes no sense strategically. Well, I know,
Speaker 1: Gina Romando to to to Genie's point, is spent an
Speaker 1: enormous amount of time on this. It's just I don't
Speaker 1: know how many plates you can have in the air
Speaker 1: and you know, pick one to be the priority here.
Speaker 1: I'd be curious to hear both of you, though, Genie,
Speaker 1: what what does it mean to have Joe Mansion out
Speaker 1: with COVID right now? It's they've got another what two
Speaker 1: weeks in the Senate to play with to get this done,
Speaker 1: to get reconciliation done? Is that even possible? It's a
Speaker 1: lot on their plate. I think they can do it
Speaker 1: if they stick to doing things like this Chip Act,
Speaker 1: the things you can get through a fifty fifty Senate,
Speaker 1: and I you know, it is tough to lose anybody,
Speaker 1: you know, that's that's always tough, especially with I think
Speaker 1: they can do it. They may have to call the
Speaker 1: house back because they don't have much time before the
Speaker 1: August recess to get all this stuff through. Yeah, well,
Speaker 1: we all know, reconciliation takes forever. Rick, is that even
Speaker 1: realistic to be talking about mansion in the House. I
Speaker 1: think they can rush it through if they want. Look,
Speaker 1: the only thing worse than having Joe manin is not
Speaker 1: having Joe manson. And and so, you know, if I
Speaker 1: were the administration, I have Dr Fauci posted up on
Speaker 1: his you know, doorstep, making sure he's got all the
Speaker 1: necessary tools that he needs to get through this as
Speaker 1: quick as he can. There's a lot of procedural activity
Speaker 1: that doesn't need his vote, but when it comes to
Speaker 1: final passage, he needs to be there. There You have
Speaker 1: it from Rick Davis and Jeannie Chanzano. A new week
Speaker 1: underway with always so much to talk about. Our signature
Speaker 1: panel on the Fastest Hour in Politics. I'm Joe Matthew
Speaker 1: in Washington. We'll meet you back here tomorrow for more.
Speaker 1: Subscribe to the podcast. If you showed up late, Bloomberg
Speaker 1: sound on, We'll see you early tomorrow morning. On Surveillance