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Speaker 1: Now from our nation's capital. This is Bloomberg Sound On.

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Speaker 1: Even if that number is naketive, we are not in

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Speaker 1: a recession now because we're seeing the strength of the

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Speaker 1: economy and the labor market. Republicans are going to want

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Speaker 1: to blame a recession on Joe Biden, and the White

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Speaker 1: House is going to push back and say yes. But

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Speaker 1: look at job Bloomberg sound On Politics, policy and perspective

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Speaker 1: from DC's top name. Couldn't be more grateful to have

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Speaker 1: had the privilege to be Vice president in the most

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Speaker 1: pro life administration in American history. Over the past two years,

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Speaker 1: the world has seen the radical left's agenda in action,

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Speaker 1: and it's been very sad to what Bloomberg Sound On

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Speaker 1: with Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio Washington argues over the

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Speaker 1: definition of a recession. Welcome to the fastest hour in politics,

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Speaker 1: Just days before an expected negative reading on GDP and

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Speaker 1: a White House trying to get ahead of the news.

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Speaker 1: We'll go to school with Bloomberg Economics editor Michael McKee,

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Speaker 1: and we'll talk to Marks, the chief economist at Moody's Analytics.

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Speaker 1: Mike Pant's speaking today in Washington. Donald Trump will do

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Speaker 1: the same tomorrow. Is it a forecast for we'll discuss

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Speaker 1: with GOP strategist Jennifer Kerns and our signature panel Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Politics contributors Jeanie Chanzano and Rick Davis with us for

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Speaker 1: the hour. President Biden continues his recovery from COVID. White

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Speaker 1: House kicked out a tweet showing and working on the

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Speaker 1: balcony with the suit and aviators and the dog for

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Speaker 1: that matter, nearby this morning, and then the President spoke

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Speaker 1: a little later saying he's feeling fine. He was addressing

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Speaker 1: an event about the Chip Act virtually, of course, and

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Speaker 1: he's not alone with this. If you haven't heard Senators

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Speaker 1: Joe Manchin and Lisa Murkowski both announcing they've tested positive.

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Speaker 1: So Manchin could make life even more difficult for Democrats,

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Speaker 1: as his in person vote would be needed for never

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Speaker 1: mind uh negotiating a reconciliation plan. Of course, this was

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Speaker 1: already challenged by inflation and growing expectations for a recession.

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Speaker 1: Not that everyone sees a recession the same way. Listen

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Speaker 1: to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Meet the Press. A

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Speaker 1: common definition of recession is too negative quarters of GDP

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Speaker 1: growth or at least that's something that's been true in

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Speaker 1: past recessions. When we've seen that there has usually been

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Speaker 1: a recession. And many economists expect second quarter g d

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Speaker 1: P to be negative. First quarter g d P was negative,

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Speaker 1: Yes it was, and two in a row. Well there

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Speaker 1: you are. Now. The RNC was quick to pounce on

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Speaker 1: what they see here as a White House trying to

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Speaker 1: change the definition before GDP comes out Thursday. Even Michael Burry,

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Speaker 1: you know, big short fame call about the White House

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Speaker 1: on Twitter over this. So for those of us, uh, well,

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Speaker 1: I mean we should hear from Janet Yellen again. This

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Speaker 1: is again on Meet the Press with the back and forth.

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Speaker 1: Listen to the back and forth with Chuck Todd. I

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Speaker 1: would you know one that we should be um not

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Speaker 1: not characterizing that as a recession, but you're splitting hairs.

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Speaker 1: I mean, if the technical definition is two quarters of contraction,

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Speaker 1: you're saying that's not a recession. That's not the take.

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Speaker 1: That's not the technical definition. Okay, And that was noted

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Speaker 1: in the White House blog last week, by the way,

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Speaker 1: which got all of this going. Karine John Pierre followed

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Speaker 1: up on it, and now the interview on Meet the

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Speaker 1: Press with Janet Yellen. So the White House is wrestling

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Speaker 1: with this definition publicly at least of a recession. And

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Speaker 1: so for those of us who are not economists, we

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Speaker 1: thought we would go to school to start things off

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Speaker 1: before we talk to Marks Andy a quick lesson with

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Economics editor Mike McKee. Alright, professor McKee, what is

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Speaker 1: a recession? Well, we can tell you what a recession

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Speaker 1: is not officially two quarters of consecutive contraction. That's sort

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Speaker 1: of a longstanding common definition. That isn't what economists use.

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Speaker 1: The economists favorite is the Bureau Economic Researchers traditional definition,

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Speaker 1: which is a significant decline in economic activity spread across

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Speaker 1: the economy that lasts more than a few months. They

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Speaker 1: use about eight different indicators to decide whether or not

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Speaker 1: we've seen that kind of decline and how long would

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Speaker 1: it take for them to determine that. It often takes

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Speaker 1: up to a year after it begins for them to

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Speaker 1: know because so much of our economic data is revised,

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Speaker 1: and so it's hard for the FED to know exactly

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Speaker 1: where we are at any one time, and NBR doesn't either,

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Speaker 1: so they wait. Professor Mike McKie, thank you so much.

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Speaker 1: I'll bring an apple next time, Okay. And that's where

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Speaker 1: we begin with Mark Zandi, chief economists at Moody's Analytics. Smark,

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Speaker 1: welcome back. It's good to be with you, Joe. Thanks

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Speaker 1: for having so. We've been talking for months about whether

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Speaker 1: the US is heading for a recession. Is the Fed Titans?

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Speaker 1: But now we're arguing over the definition of a recession.

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Speaker 1: And based on what I'm seeing from you on Twitter, A,

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Speaker 1: you do expect a negative number this week in G D,

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Speaker 1: P and B, it will not mean that we are

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Speaker 1: in a recession this time around. How come? Uh? Jobs? Uh?

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Speaker 1: You know we're creating a boatloaded jobs. I mean, through

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Speaker 1: the month of June we were creating an average of

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Speaker 1: four or five thousand a month, and typically you might

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Speaker 1: create a hundred thousand. Layoffs are a record low. I

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Speaker 1: can go through a lot of data, but you agree

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Speaker 1: with what Janet Yellen has been saying. She's saying that

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Speaker 1: this is we're not in recession. Correct, because of the

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Speaker 1: strength and the jobs data, the fact that we have

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Speaker 1: such a low unemployment rate and consumer spending and so forth.

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Speaker 1: I'm not an economist, That's why I call you. Does

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Speaker 1: this mean that we were all taught and oversimplified, if

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Speaker 1: not false definition of a recession. Indeed you are, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: it's a rule of thumb. Yeah, I don't think that

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Speaker 1: was econ one on one, but it might been a

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Speaker 1: econe I'm not sure. But now it's you know, it's

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Speaker 1: a great rule of thumb. Two quarters of consecutive declines,

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Speaker 1: and that's helped in the past to peg recessions. Easy

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Speaker 1: to get your mind around. But at the end of

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Speaker 1: the day, here in the US, the arbiters, the Business

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Speaker 1: Cycle Dating Committee, a group of academic economist at the

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Speaker 1: National Beeer of Economic Research, and they need define a recession,

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Speaker 1: I think appropriately, so as a broad based, persistent decline

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Speaker 1: in economic activity. I'm paraphrasing, so I may not have

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Speaker 1: the words exactly right, but that's the spirit of it.

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Speaker 1: When you have a lot of jobs, you have low

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Speaker 1: layoffs from a lot of consumers, spending income growth is strong.

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Speaker 1: That's not consistent with a recession. This, this is not

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Speaker 1: a recession. And but by the way, this is a

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Speaker 1: trumpet forecast, and you'll have to have me on a

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Speaker 1: few years from now to prove it over one or

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Speaker 1: the other. But I think this day is gonna be revised.

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Speaker 1: You know, it gets subject to significant revision over the years,

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Speaker 1: and I suspect it will be revised up because there

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Speaker 1: are other ways of measuring the same thing, and they

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Speaker 1: are saying something completely different than the GDP data that

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Speaker 1: the gross Domestic income data is saying. Oh no, we

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Speaker 1: grow and actually grew pretty strongly, you know, throughout this pandemic,

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Speaker 1: including in the first half of this year. You see

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Speaker 1: American consumers are the firewall. How long can that last? Uh?

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Speaker 1: I think I can. I can't last forever. I mean,

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Speaker 1: if inflation doesn't moderate, I think by late this year

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Speaker 1: early next, the firewall is gonna come down and we're

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Speaker 1: gonna go into recession. So we need to get inflation

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Speaker 1: back headed south. Here. It feels like it's moving in

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Speaker 1: that direction. Gas prices are done a lot, you know,

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Speaker 1: over the last four or six eight weeks, so it

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Speaker 1: feels like, you know, we're coming off the boil. But

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Speaker 1: that's got to happen. If it doesn't, consumers are gonna,

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Speaker 1: you know, just their purchasing power is gonna road to

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Speaker 1: such a point they're gonna blow through all their excess

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Speaker 1: saving they piled up during the pandemic, and they're gonna

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Speaker 1: their sentiments going to collapse and we'll go into recession.

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Speaker 1: So we've got you know, three six, nine months, but

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Speaker 1: we need inflation back down. Well, having been around politics

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Speaker 1: as much as you have, you know the definition of

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Speaker 1: a recession that Republicans are going to use in this case.

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Speaker 1: They're gonna say, yeah, here's the here's the proof. This

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Speaker 1: is Joe Biden's recession. How do you argue with that

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Speaker 1: it's not a recession. I mean, I don't know how

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Speaker 1: I argue with that. But when perception is reality and politics,

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Speaker 1: this is not an economics one on one or one

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Speaker 1: or two class. This is most people are going to

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Speaker 1: hear Republican members of Congress and senators saying this pretend

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Speaker 1: presidential candidates, and this is just makes life a lot

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Speaker 1: more difficult for this White House in messaging, you know,

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Speaker 1: going out to teach everybody what's going on, right, Oh yeah,

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Speaker 1: you no, absolutely, and fort time just the economists, not

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Speaker 1: the politician, and I don't have to worry about the

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Speaker 1: messaging per se. But you know, look, people have jobs.

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Speaker 1: Unemployment is incredibly low, layoffs were rock bottom. You know

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Speaker 1: throughout the first half of this year. You know, people

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Speaker 1: were spending. You know, stock prices are down, no doubt,

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Speaker 1: but aus prices were up. So people are you know,

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Speaker 1: pretty wealthy? Are their debtloads are very low? They locked

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Speaker 1: in those previously low interest rates through REEFINI and saying so,

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Speaker 1: you know, just for the typical person trying to figure out,

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Speaker 1: you know, where they would land in this debate. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I don't like paying five dollars for a gawn of

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Speaker 1: gasoline and I'm very upset about it. Rightly so. And

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Speaker 1: this inflation is a real problem. But just think about

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Speaker 1: it for a second. You know everyone's employed. Um, you know, uh,

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Speaker 1: is that a recession? No? Right? As you well know,

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Speaker 1: Larry Summers has been at odds uh with this administration

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Speaker 1: over inflation, at odds with the Fed and even with

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Speaker 1: the likelihood of recession, he says, it's highly unlikely that

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Speaker 1: the Fed can pull off a soft landing. How can

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Speaker 1: these two economists, Summers and Yelling, both Democrats, be so

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Speaker 1: far apart? Well, I mean this is a tricky time, right,

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Speaker 1: and I mean, look, recession risks are high. Inflation is

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Speaker 1: a problem. We do we need a little bit of luck.

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Speaker 1: We need all prices to get head and lower. That

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Speaker 1: means you know, the problem, the worst of the fallout

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Speaker 1: from the Russian invasion has to be behind us, and

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Speaker 1: you know, there's a lot of reasons to be nervous

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Speaker 1: about that. You use sanctions, you know, lots of different things.

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Speaker 1: And the pandemic, you know, the pandemic is still launch,

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Speaker 1: still creating havoc in China, where you know, a lot

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Speaker 1: of the world's supply chains begin. And that's you know,

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Speaker 1: we're bating back on us. We need a little bit

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Speaker 1: of luck on the pandemic and on the Russian invasion.

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Speaker 1: I think, actually correctly, I'm wrong, Joe, but I think

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Speaker 1: the Treasury Secretary Yelling actually used that phrase. We needed

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Speaker 1: a bit of a little bit of luck, and he's right.

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Speaker 1: And that's why recession risk awfully high, because things could

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Speaker 1: definitely go throw us. And and that's those are the

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Speaker 1: known unknowns, right, What about the unknown unowns? I mean,

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Speaker 1: I had this nightmare that we're gonna have a Cat

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Speaker 1: five hurricane blows through the Gulf and wipe out a

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Speaker 1: refinery on the Texas coast, and you know that that

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Speaker 1: will send gas prices right back over five bucks and

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Speaker 1: we'll probably go in So when you're on the knife sedge.

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Speaker 1: That's all it takes. But I'd throw another one back

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Speaker 1: at you. How about B A five. How concerned are

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Speaker 1: you about another wave of COVID that actually did impact

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Speaker 1: business is the way it did the first time? Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I mean that goes to the pandemic, right, I mean,

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Speaker 1: I I think my sense is people aren't going to

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Speaker 1: hospitals to the same to a significant degree. As such,

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Speaker 1: I think here in the US and most of the

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Speaker 1: world will be will just navigate through. It's you know,

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Speaker 1: not no no fun, and it's gonna be disruptive, and

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Speaker 1: you know, it just adds to our general angst. But

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Speaker 1: the real problem is China, right, because China still has

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Speaker 1: that no COVID policy. If they have any cases, they

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Speaker 1: shut down shutdowns or shutdowns. Yeah. And lastly, do foresee

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Speaker 1: a real risk of recession next year? Is that safe

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Speaker 1: to say? Yeah? Oh yeah, I think recession risk are

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Speaker 1: very close to even and and in fact, it feels

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Speaker 1: like it's if we're gonna have a recession as closer,

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Speaker 1: it's sooner rather than later. It's not going to be

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Speaker 1: a year from now. It's gonna be you know, sometime

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Speaker 1: in the next six months. Mark Sandy Moody's analytics. It's

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Speaker 1: always our great pleasure. Thanks for coming back to talk

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Speaker 1: to son Bloomberg anytime. Joe, thank you. And how about

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Speaker 1: the President himself? He weighed in virtually, of course, during

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Speaker 1: an event today at the White House. Asked about Thursday's

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Speaker 1: g d P report, here he is, we're in our

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Speaker 1: community recession and my view, uh we are. The employment

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Speaker 1: rate is still on the lowest we've had in history,

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Speaker 1: to the three point six area. We still find ourselves

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Speaker 1: of people investing. Uh my. My hope is we go

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Speaker 1: from this rapid growth to a steady growth and uh

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Speaker 1: so see we'll see some coming down, but I don't

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Speaker 1: think we're going to God, William, I don't think we're

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Speaker 1: going to see a recession. We'll assemble the panel next

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Speaker 1: for the take on this. Genie Chanzano and Rick Davis

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Speaker 1: are with us Bloomberg Politics contributors will check markets and

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Speaker 1: traffic along the way. I'm Joe Matthew and Washington. This

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Speaker 1: is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg. So long with Joe Matthew

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Speaker 1: on Bloomberg Radio. So much for the Pence Trump showdown

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Speaker 1: this week here in Washington. The Heritage Foundation now says

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Speaker 1: Mike Pence couldn't make it because of severe weather and

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Speaker 1: flight delays. They've postponed the whole thing supposed to be

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Speaker 1: talking this hour, so he will not be providing the

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Speaker 1: preamble for Donald Trump tomorrow in d C. And we'll

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Speaker 1: have more on that later this hour with Republican strategist

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Speaker 1: Jennifer Kerns. This is sound On. Thanks for joining us,

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Speaker 1: the fastest hour in politics. Now, we went to school

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Speaker 1: with Michael McKee. We talked to Mark Zany, and we

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Speaker 1: assemble our panel with Rick Davis and Jennie Schanzano Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Politics contributors on this whole attempt by the White House

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Speaker 1: to try to well give us a different look at

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Speaker 1: the idea of a recession ahead of Thursday's economic data. Genie,

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Speaker 1: as a communicator here in an academic what do you

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Speaker 1: make of this process? You start about a week out here.

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Speaker 1: It was in a White House blog post, then it

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Speaker 1: came up in the briefing room with Karine Jean Pierre,

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Speaker 1: you guys trying to redefine recession, and now this week, uh,

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Speaker 1: it's it's it's in the air. Janet Yellen talks about

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Speaker 1: it on Sunday and suddenly it's not two consecutive quarters

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Speaker 1: of negative growth. There's all kinds of factors. Is that

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Speaker 1: going to get into the brains of Americans by Thursday?

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Speaker 1: You know, unfortunately it's not. And I think they need

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Speaker 1: Professor McKee to get over there and to clarify exactly

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Speaker 1: what it is. But you know, the problem for this

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Speaker 1: White House, and and I think you know, we can

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Speaker 1: all be empathetic to this, is that they're trying to

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Speaker 1: do two things. On the one hand, they want to

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Speaker 1: empathize with people, and on the other hand, they want

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Speaker 1: to point to the good things going on. And unfortunately,

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Speaker 1: I think Janet Yellen got caught in a trap in

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Speaker 1: you know, Meet the Press, where she was trying to

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Speaker 1: argue about a definition versus letting people know that she understands.

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Speaker 1: The White House most importantly understands and is ready to

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Speaker 1: address the incredible pain people are feeling everything they do shopping,

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Speaker 1: buying a house, renting an apartment, whatever it is. So

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Speaker 1: you know, it's a difficult line for them to walk,

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Speaker 1: but they're going to have to do a better job

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Speaker 1: of doing that. And we understand the definitions of these

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Speaker 1: things are complicated, but that's not what the American public

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Speaker 1: are going to be thinking about. Well, and you look,

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Speaker 1: I guess most of us uh learned in high school

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Speaker 1: one one way to look at this, Rick and I

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Speaker 1: you know, I understand two consecutive quarters as an indicator

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Speaker 1: and a typically reliable one, But it does not define

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Speaker 1: a recession. Does that matter? Oh? I think that this

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Speaker 1: is what they're pushing back on and and and certainly

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Speaker 1: the modern media, excluding Bloomberg, will rush to judgment by

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Speaker 1: using that uh, that standard world will be everywhere. Right.

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Speaker 1: But yeah, but look, I mean we shouldn't be surprised

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Speaker 1: because this is the same administration it got you know, uh,

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Speaker 1: inflation called transient and that didn't work out very well

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Speaker 1: for him. Now they're claiming there is no recession, and

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Speaker 1: we can only hope they're right. But but they lack

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Speaker 1: the credibility on this, right. I mean, you know, I

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Speaker 1: don't think Yelling made a mistake. I think she was

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Speaker 1: like sticking to the White House talking points. You know,

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Speaker 1: we're gonna say there's no recession until you know, we're

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Speaker 1: proven wrong. And they were proven wrong on inflation, and

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Speaker 1: let's hope they're not wrong on recession. Well, I mean Look,

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Speaker 1: we heard from Mark zany Uh and look, maybe he's

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Speaker 1: political in your eyes, but we also heard from Michael

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Speaker 1: McKee and they both agreed with Janet Yellen Rick. So

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Speaker 1: do people just need to get smarter on the economy

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Speaker 1: or is it the other way around? The White House

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Speaker 1: needs to do a better job telegraphing. I think the

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Speaker 1: White House has to sell They've got to telegraph this,

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Speaker 1: They've got to educate the public, they've got to talk

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Speaker 1: about it constantly. This is an administration where you know

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Speaker 1: they're there. They have the attention span of a gnat,

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Speaker 1: Like literally every day they change the topic. There's no

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Speaker 1: ability to kind of stick to a message for four

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Speaker 1: or five days and try and bring the public along

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Speaker 1: with them. And they and they wonder why when the

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Speaker 1: public has asked, you know, about their initiatives, that they're

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Speaker 1: highly critical because they get confused and they really don't

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Speaker 1: know what's going on next. So I think I think

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Speaker 1: this administration, We've talked about it many times in the past,

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Speaker 1: has had an inability to communicate to the American public effectively.

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Speaker 1: Their numbers represent that they show it, they demonstrate it.

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Speaker 1: Their lack of success politically lately has demonstrated that, and

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Speaker 1: so the question is will they get it right between

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Speaker 1: now and election day in November? And right now this

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Speaker 1: seems to be the past where they're like, hey, just

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Speaker 1: trust us, no recession, that's it. Well, is this sort

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Speaker 1: of a shot across the bow of of many newsrooms,

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Speaker 1: as I think Rick was was suggesting here, Genie, the

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Speaker 1: headline has already been written in a lot of cases,

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Speaker 1: recession official two consecutive quarters. You start talking about this

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Speaker 1: now and maybe it doesn't show up on USA to

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Speaker 1: Day or you know, or on Bloomberg. Yeah, that's right,

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Speaker 1: And you know, the difficult case to make politically, as

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Speaker 1: always when you're going to tell people, don't believe what

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Speaker 1: you're feeling, don't believe what you see people feel pain.

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Speaker 1: That's the bottom line here. It's not the White House's fault,

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Speaker 1: it's not Joe Biden's fault. But as president and the administration,

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Speaker 1: they take responsibility. You know, Gerald Ford wore wore that

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Speaker 1: wind pin whip inflation now and Alan Greenspan said it

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Speaker 1: was incredibly stupid and desperate and and it didn't do

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Speaker 1: much to end it. But this is the trial of

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Speaker 1: a president overseeing inflation of this kind and you know,

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Speaker 1: many of our modern presidents have been lucky they haven't

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Speaker 1: had to deal with Unfortunately, Joe Biden now is having

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Speaker 1: to deal with it more than any president since bush

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Speaker 1: In and it is a hard thing to deal with.

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Speaker 1: But they've got to do a better job letting people

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Speaker 1: know they're on top of it, and to Rick's point,

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Speaker 1: having a consistent message that they follow through on that

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Speaker 1: is critical. Letting people know they empathy as well. Rick,

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Speaker 1: you mentioned talking points are Republican talking points going out

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Speaker 1: today in advance of Thursday, on the assumption that's a

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Speaker 1: negative number. Oh sure, I mean, and I think everybody

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Speaker 1: has an anticipation that this is gonna be a tough

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Speaker 1: week for the administration. These reports are going to come out,

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Speaker 1: and Republicans are gonna pounce on it because they had

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Speaker 1: a clean administration. Nobody was charging recession or inflation. You know,

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Speaker 1: when Donald Trump was present. Doesn't mean he didn't add

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Speaker 1: to the problem in the last year of his administration.

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Speaker 1: But the bottom line is this is a Philip of

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Speaker 1: Biden recession exactly, Rick Davis, Jeanie Schanzano, stay with us.

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Speaker 1: I told you Mike Pence has Pope and strategist Jennifer

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Speaker 1: Kern's I'm Joe Matthew, this is Bloomberg. Donald Trump certainly

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Speaker 1: keeps flirting with the idea, though of course no one

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Speaker 1: knows if he's going to run in and I guess

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Speaker 1: we can say the same for Mike Pence, although they're

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Speaker 1: both talking a lot like they planned to run. Mike

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Speaker 1: Pence was supposed to be in d C today, as

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Speaker 1: I mentioned, speaking right now, and what would have set

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Speaker 1: the table as he outlines his whole policy agenda, would

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Speaker 1: set the table for Donald Trump's big return tomorrow. This

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Speaker 1: is his speech taking place at In America first summit

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Speaker 1: that got underway today, and Trump will be speaking. This

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Speaker 1: will already happen by the time we're here together tomorrow,

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Speaker 1: so we can tell you what what he said, what

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Speaker 1: took place. But what was set up as kind of

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Speaker 1: a major duel between the two of a virtual duel,

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Speaker 1: is no longer. Pence delayed, that hasn't been rescheduled yet.

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Speaker 1: But at the Turning Point Action Summit a few days ago,

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump, as I mentioned, still going ahead with the

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Speaker 1: idea that he not only won last time, but is

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Speaker 1: standing by to run this time. Here he is and

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Speaker 1: did much better the second time than I did the first,

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Speaker 1: getting millions and millions more votes than we did in

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Speaker 1: and likewise getting more votes than any sitting president in

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Speaker 1: the history of our country by far. And now we

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Speaker 1: may just have to do it again. We've heard that

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Speaker 1: line before. I don't expect we're gonna get a line

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Speaker 1: like that from Mike Pence. But how about the timing now?

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Speaker 1: Now Trump sets up the Pence speech, I wonder if

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Speaker 1: that is set up for later this week. We'll let

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Speaker 1: you know. Let's bring in Jennifer Kern's Republican strategist, former

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Speaker 1: spokeswoman for the California Republican Party. It's great to have

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Speaker 1: you with us here, Jennifer. Is this uh an opportunity

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Speaker 1: lost for Mike Pence the whole weather turn here, or

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Speaker 1: maybe on purpose so he could follow Donald Trump and

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Speaker 1: have the last word, so to speak. Well, great to

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Speaker 1: be with you, Joe. I think if Donald Trump were

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Speaker 1: answering this question, he would say, oh, he did it

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Speaker 1: on purpose, he had the flight, he had the flight

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Speaker 1: diverted on purpose. And I think, really, really, everything you've

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Speaker 1: set this table for it really does show it is

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Speaker 1: shaping up to be one of the nastier and maybe

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Speaker 1: even more cringe worthy battles we're going to see for

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Speaker 1: the next two years all up through. Um. Look, I

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Speaker 1: think it's going to be cringe worthy. The reason I

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Speaker 1: say that is I think we will see some of

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Speaker 1: the name calling that we saw in the election, where

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Speaker 1: you know, Trump called Jeb Bush low energy and he

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Speaker 1: called Marco Ruby a little Marsa. You get more nicknames.

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Speaker 1: I think more nicknames and more slurs are to come,

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Speaker 1: for sure. Um. But I think as much as there

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Speaker 1: might be some some media interest in in Mike Pence,

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Speaker 1: certainly in the wake of the January six hearings, Mike

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Speaker 1: Pence's delegation is actually pretty small. And here's why. If

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Speaker 1: you look at the popularity Trump has had among the

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Speaker 1: GOP for the last eighteen months since he left office,

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Speaker 1: He's had about ninety percent support of the GOP, and

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Speaker 1: at his highest point right after he left office, even

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Speaker 1: after January six, by the way, he had ninety of

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Speaker 1: the GOP. Now that's changed a little bit at the

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Speaker 1: January six hearings, UH say that that's cut into his

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Speaker 1: his lead a little bit about a third or Republican

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Speaker 1: fingers jeer his his impact at the polls with through

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Speaker 1: his endorsements and so forth, have Rick Davis, for instance,

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Speaker 1: you know, referring to him as Mr. Thirty five cent.

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Speaker 1: So does he really own the party to that extent? Well, well,

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Speaker 1: he does if you look at the polls, and if

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Speaker 1: you look at the cross tabs, which we do as

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Speaker 1: political consultants, and some of the numbers that are embedded

428
00:22:34,280 --> 00:22:38,960
Speaker 1: in there, the America First policies ring really true to that.

429
00:22:39,520 --> 00:22:42,480
Speaker 1: You also look at Trump's structure that he has. He's

430
00:22:42,560 --> 00:22:47,040
Speaker 1: basically created an entire operation that is sort of a

431
00:22:47,160 --> 00:22:49,879
Speaker 1: private sector White House, and that is the America First

432
00:22:50,240 --> 00:22:53,480
Speaker 1: pack organizations. Um, they are ready to turn this on

433
00:22:53,720 --> 00:22:55,640
Speaker 1: and and be back in the White House, and they're

434
00:22:55,720 --> 00:23:00,560
Speaker 1: going to be playing in every election now through here. Also,

435
00:23:00,640 --> 00:23:02,960
Speaker 1: why Mike Pence. I think we'll we'll have a tough

436
00:23:03,040 --> 00:23:06,159
Speaker 1: go at it. I think he's fine taking the shrapnel

437
00:23:06,280 --> 00:23:10,880
Speaker 1: from Trump. But he's more of a Lincoln project at candidate.

438
00:23:11,119 --> 00:23:14,040
Speaker 1: You know, this is this is more of the moderate

439
00:23:14,240 --> 00:23:17,880
Speaker 1: supermoderate you think, Mike. So Mike Pents is a moderate?

440
00:23:18,160 --> 00:23:20,320
Speaker 1: He wouldn't. I mean, could Donald Trump have ever gotten

441
00:23:20,400 --> 00:23:25,440
Speaker 1: the evangelical vote without him? No? But but here's the thing,

442
00:23:25,560 --> 00:23:30,840
Speaker 1: politics makes strange bedfellows, right, and loyalties change, Allies change,

443
00:23:30,920 --> 00:23:34,440
Speaker 1: partnerships change over time, and we're seeing just how dynamic

444
00:23:34,560 --> 00:23:37,639
Speaker 1: this relationship is um And I think Trump was, you know,

445
00:23:37,720 --> 00:23:40,480
Speaker 1: according to all of these accounts for hearing that he

446
00:23:40,640 --> 00:23:43,719
Speaker 1: was deeply hurt. He really did think Mike Pence betrayed him,

447
00:23:44,040 --> 00:23:46,160
Speaker 1: and he's going to make him pay for Mike pants

448
00:23:46,200 --> 00:23:48,000
Speaker 1: really want to run for president, though, do you think

449
00:23:48,119 --> 00:23:49,439
Speaker 1: or does he just want to be on the right

450
00:23:49,480 --> 00:23:52,760
Speaker 1: side of history, to be the face of the other side. Yeah,

451
00:23:52,800 --> 00:23:54,520
Speaker 1: I think you're onto something there. I would not be

452
00:23:54,680 --> 00:23:57,760
Speaker 1: surprised if Mike Pence makes it maybe to the first

453
00:23:58,200 --> 00:24:01,800
Speaker 1: presidential debate, but then drops out and go forms his

454
00:24:01,880 --> 00:24:04,160
Speaker 1: own pack. He will be a thorn in the side

455
00:24:04,200 --> 00:24:05,960
Speaker 1: of Trump no matter which way you look at it.

456
00:24:06,200 --> 00:24:09,800
Speaker 1: I'm sure he's had conversations with the consultants who run

457
00:24:09,840 --> 00:24:13,160
Speaker 1: the Lincoln Project and other things. But look, Mike Pence

458
00:24:13,200 --> 00:24:15,360
Speaker 1: has another person to worry about, and this is from

459
00:24:15,520 --> 00:24:18,480
Speaker 1: his other flank as well. This is Liz Cheney, another

460
00:24:18,560 --> 00:24:21,879
Speaker 1: person in who is most certainly going to get the

461
00:24:22,000 --> 00:24:24,280
Speaker 1: arrows from Trump. And I think she is most certainly

462
00:24:24,400 --> 00:24:27,240
Speaker 1: running And I think really her opening statement to the

463
00:24:27,320 --> 00:24:31,480
Speaker 1: January six Committee was really her campaign kickoff. Um, even

464
00:24:31,520 --> 00:24:33,760
Speaker 1: though they're not supposed to be politicking from the dice,

465
00:24:33,880 --> 00:24:36,280
Speaker 1: I think that's in effect what it was. So this

466
00:24:36,359 --> 00:24:38,560
Speaker 1: would be interesting. I don't think it's what's Donald Trump

467
00:24:38,640 --> 00:24:40,960
Speaker 1: talked about tomorrow. What's the in the in the space

468
00:24:41,040 --> 00:24:43,520
Speaker 1: that he has Considering the way this has been framed,

469
00:24:43,720 --> 00:24:46,200
Speaker 1: is this a policy speech or is this a scortched

470
00:24:46,240 --> 00:24:50,600
Speaker 1: earth kind of speech? I definitely think it's a scortched

471
00:24:50,640 --> 00:24:53,600
Speaker 1: earth at speech. I also think he'll have some economic

472
00:24:53,680 --> 00:24:56,440
Speaker 1: points in there, once again saying I told you so.

473
00:24:57,160 --> 00:24:59,879
Speaker 1: The White House has denied that these economic problems are

474
00:25:00,000 --> 00:25:02,600
Speaker 1: coming for the better part of the last year. And

475
00:25:03,000 --> 00:25:05,280
Speaker 1: uh and and gosh, why don't you put a guy

476
00:25:05,359 --> 00:25:07,399
Speaker 1: like Donald Trump Becken who knew how to run in

477
00:25:07,480 --> 00:25:09,960
Speaker 1: the commune? I think that's gonna be the crux. As

478
00:25:10,040 --> 00:25:13,720
Speaker 1: you mentioned my sense, Oh, I most certainly think that

479
00:25:13,840 --> 00:25:17,520
Speaker 1: he does absolutely um, you know he by name, and

480
00:25:17,560 --> 00:25:20,720
Speaker 1: he'll talk about how disloyal he is. He'll he'll certainly

481
00:25:20,760 --> 00:25:23,320
Speaker 1: get booze from the crowd. I think that is certainly

482
00:25:23,760 --> 00:25:27,080
Speaker 1: uh in the offing, and and and yeah, he'll talk

483
00:25:27,119 --> 00:25:29,840
Speaker 1: about you know, how Mike Pence doesn't represent the majority

484
00:25:29,880 --> 00:25:32,440
Speaker 1: of the party. And guess what, how we know all

485
00:25:32,480 --> 00:25:35,560
Speaker 1: of this? By the way, Joe follow the money right.

486
00:25:35,640 --> 00:25:37,720
Speaker 1: Whenever you want to know the answer, you follow the money.

487
00:25:37,760 --> 00:25:40,280
Speaker 1: I was in an event with Kevin McCarthy, the GOP

488
00:25:40,440 --> 00:25:43,479
Speaker 1: leader who's criss crossing uh the nation. I always run

489
00:25:43,560 --> 00:25:45,399
Speaker 1: into him in the midterm yere, we're always kind of

490
00:25:45,480 --> 00:25:50,280
Speaker 1: criss crossing states. Um. And he shared that the RNC

491
00:25:50,560 --> 00:25:54,240
Speaker 1: they found out pretty quickly after Trump Uh, that he

492
00:25:54,400 --> 00:25:58,480
Speaker 1: was a big fundraiser six to one. How one Jennifer

493
00:25:58,600 --> 00:26:06,000
Speaker 1: Kern's thank you assemble the panel. Next, you're listening to

494
00:26:06,119 --> 00:26:12,159
Speaker 1: Bloomberg sound on on Bloomberg Radio. Bad weather gets the

495
00:26:12,240 --> 00:26:15,440
Speaker 1: blame for keeping Mike Pence away from Washington today. It

496
00:26:15,640 --> 00:26:18,399
Speaker 1: was coming down earlier. So Donald Trump will not be

497
00:26:19,160 --> 00:26:22,280
Speaker 1: answering his former vice president if you will when he

498
00:26:22,400 --> 00:26:26,280
Speaker 1: speaks here tomorrow, and that will be Donald Trump's a

499
00:26:26,560 --> 00:26:29,680
Speaker 1: big return to Washington. Were told since leaving the White House.

500
00:26:29,760 --> 00:26:32,919
Speaker 1: Let's reassemble the panel. Rick Davis and Jeanie Chanzano are

501
00:26:32,960 --> 00:26:36,840
Speaker 1: with us Bloomberg Politics contributors. What do you make of

502
00:26:37,320 --> 00:26:40,480
Speaker 1: of the change in timing here? If you were actually

503
00:26:41,280 --> 00:26:44,840
Speaker 1: you know, helping to advise Donald Trump here, Rick, Is

504
00:26:44,960 --> 00:26:47,800
Speaker 1: this an advantage in a way that that you wouldn't

505
00:26:47,880 --> 00:26:51,159
Speaker 1: have if you were following him today? Well? I think

506
00:26:51,280 --> 00:26:53,919
Speaker 1: you know, Donald Trump probably never looked at this as

507
00:26:54,040 --> 00:26:57,040
Speaker 1: dueling speeches, right, I mean, I doubt if he gives

508
00:26:57,520 --> 00:27:00,240
Speaker 1: Mike Pence much credit for actually being able to get

509
00:27:00,240 --> 00:27:02,399
Speaker 1: out ahead of him and lay down, you know, a

510
00:27:02,920 --> 00:27:05,560
Speaker 1: vision of the future of the Republican Party. So my

511
00:27:05,680 --> 00:27:08,280
Speaker 1: guess is, with or without Mike pensive speech, Donald Trump

512
00:27:08,280 --> 00:27:10,200
Speaker 1: is still going to say the same things, and you know,

513
00:27:10,280 --> 00:27:12,639
Speaker 1: he's he's going to talk about his agenda. He he

514
00:27:12,800 --> 00:27:16,120
Speaker 1: does basically the same thing in every rally he he does,

515
00:27:16,280 --> 00:27:18,800
Speaker 1: so I suspect this will follow that sort of standard

516
00:27:18,920 --> 00:27:24,480
Speaker 1: rally approach. Does he have a larger base than some

517
00:27:24,680 --> 00:27:28,440
Speaker 1: people are assuming, including you know, the conversation that we

518
00:27:28,640 --> 00:27:31,920
Speaker 1: just had with Jennifer Kern's uh you know, is he

519
00:27:32,000 --> 00:27:35,440
Speaker 1: gonna end up being kind of a fringe candidate here

520
00:27:35,520 --> 00:27:38,120
Speaker 1: in the party that that wants to once embraced him,

521
00:27:38,200 --> 00:27:41,840
Speaker 1: or are there more Republicans who are looking for an alternative,

522
00:27:42,640 --> 00:27:46,080
Speaker 1: uh than than the sort of nine percent support in

523
00:27:46,320 --> 00:27:49,000
Speaker 1: in broad polls. Let on. Well, I don't think you'll

524
00:27:49,000 --> 00:27:50,920
Speaker 1: ever be a fringe canidate. He's got a hundred and

525
00:27:50,960 --> 00:27:52,960
Speaker 1: three million dollars sitting in a pack. And you know,

526
00:27:53,040 --> 00:27:54,960
Speaker 1: he's got a hundred percent name I d whether you

527
00:27:55,040 --> 00:27:57,480
Speaker 1: like him or not. And and I think though, what

528
00:27:57,760 --> 00:28:02,040
Speaker 1: is telling is how many of his former administration appointees

529
00:28:02,240 --> 00:28:04,840
Speaker 1: and governors are prepared to go out and start pushing

530
00:28:04,920 --> 00:28:08,280
Speaker 1: back against him. Uh. And you know that includes probably

531
00:28:08,359 --> 00:28:11,119
Speaker 1: half a dozen to a dozen members of his former

532
00:28:11,200 --> 00:28:13,720
Speaker 1: cabinet who all think that they should be president United

533
00:28:13,760 --> 00:28:17,520
Speaker 1: States and and are probably willing to stake a position

534
00:28:17,560 --> 00:28:20,680
Speaker 1: against him even if he's a candidate. So Uh, the

535
00:28:20,840 --> 00:28:25,240
Speaker 1: lack of fear within the Republican Party leadership around Donald

536
00:28:25,280 --> 00:28:28,520
Speaker 1: Trump is a good indication that he's starting to lose

537
00:28:28,640 --> 00:28:32,400
Speaker 1: his reach into the Republican Party, especially as a candidate

538
00:28:32,440 --> 00:28:35,560
Speaker 1: for president. But you see, Mike Pence is having a

539
00:28:35,680 --> 00:28:38,680
Speaker 1: base in this party somewhere. Yeah, no question. He came

540
00:28:38,760 --> 00:28:42,360
Speaker 1: to the table with Trump, uh as a social conservative,

541
00:28:42,440 --> 00:28:45,080
Speaker 1: you know, great ties when that was not ruined on

542
00:28:45,200 --> 00:28:47,800
Speaker 1: January six. I think it had been ruined prior to

543
00:28:47,920 --> 00:28:51,239
Speaker 1: January six, And I think on January six, he probably uh,

544
00:28:51,800 --> 00:28:57,720
Speaker 1: demonstrated a moral superiority to the president, which probably helped

545
00:28:57,800 --> 00:29:00,440
Speaker 1: him with that that community. And we saw one of

546
00:29:00,520 --> 00:29:03,040
Speaker 1: his speeches in the last two weeks was down in

547
00:29:03,120 --> 00:29:06,880
Speaker 1: South Carolina at Baptist Church and he talked specifically about

548
00:29:06,920 --> 00:29:10,960
Speaker 1: those issues around faith and abortion that that really turned

549
00:29:11,000 --> 00:29:13,920
Speaker 1: that group on. And so he has a unique ability

550
00:29:14,040 --> 00:29:16,800
Speaker 1: to drive a lot of attention in that arena. He

551
00:29:16,920 --> 00:29:19,320
Speaker 1: talked Jennie we we hit this on Friday, about how

552
00:29:19,360 --> 00:29:21,200
Speaker 1: honored he was to work for what he described as

553
00:29:21,240 --> 00:29:25,160
Speaker 1: the most pro life administration in American history. Uh. He

554
00:29:25,320 --> 00:29:28,000
Speaker 1: was also expected, though, to draw clear lines in this

555
00:29:28,120 --> 00:29:30,520
Speaker 1: speech today, and I suspect he will deliver it at

556
00:29:30,600 --> 00:29:33,320
Speaker 1: some point in the coming days of the Heritage Foundation

557
00:29:33,840 --> 00:29:37,080
Speaker 1: to say, you know, without maybe naming Donald Trump, that

558
00:29:37,160 --> 00:29:39,920
Speaker 1: it's time to stop looking back. And we've seen that

559
00:29:40,000 --> 00:29:43,000
Speaker 1: in the tweets that they've been sending out on behalf

560
00:29:43,040 --> 00:29:45,680
Speaker 1: of Mike Pence, that he wants to be Trump with

561
00:29:45,880 --> 00:29:48,880
Speaker 1: all the positives in terms of policy. And I have

562
00:29:49,040 --> 00:29:53,240
Speaker 1: to underscore many Republicans are very satisfied with what Donald

563
00:29:53,280 --> 00:29:56,160
Speaker 1: Trump did as president policy wise, So he's sort of

564
00:29:56,240 --> 00:29:58,760
Speaker 1: Donald Trump without all the fuss, with out of the mess.

565
00:29:59,000 --> 00:30:03,080
Speaker 1: And he's not back looking relitigating. He's forward looking. That's

566
00:30:03,360 --> 00:30:06,040
Speaker 1: how he wants to bill himself. And you know, in

567
00:30:06,160 --> 00:30:09,000
Speaker 1: this speech that Trump is giving, some people are describing

568
00:30:09,040 --> 00:30:12,720
Speaker 1: as a state of the Union five point oh. And interestingly,

569
00:30:13,400 --> 00:30:17,000
Speaker 1: Trump spokesperson said he's going to focus and we have

570
00:30:17,120 --> 00:30:18,720
Speaker 1: to see this to believe this, but he's going to

571
00:30:18,800 --> 00:30:22,120
Speaker 1: focus on one issue, primarily rising crime and public safety.

572
00:30:22,440 --> 00:30:24,200
Speaker 1: And in my mind, the question is can he do

573
00:30:24,400 --> 00:30:27,320
Speaker 1: that without looking back and trying to once again relitigate.

574
00:30:28,640 --> 00:30:32,920
Speaker 1: I'll tell you, reliving is has gotten Donald Trump pretty

575
00:30:32,920 --> 00:30:36,360
Speaker 1: far along with a lot of his supporters. Here, Rick Uh,

576
00:30:36,600 --> 00:30:40,200
Speaker 1: the idea of a Mike Pence campaign, However, how long

577
00:30:40,280 --> 00:30:43,040
Speaker 1: does he have to figure out whether whether he wants

578
00:30:43,080 --> 00:30:45,280
Speaker 1: to do that or is it is? Is it not

579
00:30:45,400 --> 00:30:48,000
Speaker 1: as simple as waiting on Donald Trump? Could you actually

580
00:30:48,040 --> 00:30:52,240
Speaker 1: have these two running against each other? Sure easily envisioned

581
00:30:52,760 --> 00:30:55,200
Speaker 1: the two running against each other, you know, and and

582
00:30:55,360 --> 00:30:59,760
Speaker 1: and many other Republicans like de Santis from Florida announcing

583
00:30:59,840 --> 00:31:02,280
Speaker 1: against Donald Trump if he chooses to run, so he

584
00:31:02,360 --> 00:31:05,360
Speaker 1: doesn't clear the field. Andy that that's not in your vision. Look,

585
00:31:05,400 --> 00:31:08,440
Speaker 1: if you're a secondary candidate, and you know really kind

586
00:31:08,440 --> 00:31:11,000
Speaker 1: of wondering, is there an opportunity without Trump in the race,

587
00:31:11,080 --> 00:31:13,320
Speaker 1: Maybe I'll go, But with Trump in it, maybe you know,

588
00:31:13,520 --> 00:31:16,320
Speaker 1: there's there's less ability to raise money and garner support

589
00:31:16,360 --> 00:31:18,800
Speaker 1: in early primary states. Then then maybe some of the

590
00:31:18,880 --> 00:31:21,400
Speaker 1: second tier fall off. But you know, in politics is

591
00:31:21,400 --> 00:31:24,400
Speaker 1: all about opportunity, and there aren't these opportunities that come

592
00:31:24,440 --> 00:31:27,440
Speaker 1: around but once every four years, and so you know,

593
00:31:28,120 --> 00:31:31,520
Speaker 1: sometimes don't have the luxury of waiting. And I think

594
00:31:31,600 --> 00:31:34,280
Speaker 1: that's what Pence is thinking. I think he thinks that

595
00:31:34,880 --> 00:31:37,600
Speaker 1: he's got a strike while the iron's hot. And and

596
00:31:37,720 --> 00:31:39,760
Speaker 1: the build up you know, in the last two weeks

597
00:31:39,880 --> 00:31:43,240
Speaker 1: is speech in Arizona around the governor's race there where

598
00:31:43,280 --> 00:31:46,880
Speaker 1: he posted up Trump. Um, you know, his Republican Study Committee,

599
00:31:46,920 --> 00:31:49,280
Speaker 1: which is kind of his base in the House, social

600
00:31:49,360 --> 00:31:52,440
Speaker 1: conservatives and conservatives alike. Um, you know, that was kind

601
00:31:52,480 --> 00:31:54,880
Speaker 1: of a rally for his presidential campaign. And then his

602
00:31:55,400 --> 00:31:58,920
Speaker 1: social conservative speech down in South Carolina. And then you

603
00:31:58,960 --> 00:32:02,360
Speaker 1: know tonight's speech that got canceled. Uh, you know, in

604
00:32:02,680 --> 00:32:05,640
Speaker 1: in the Heritage Foundation. He he's acting a lot like

605
00:32:05,800 --> 00:32:08,320
Speaker 1: a guy who's looking for a ticket to run in

606
00:32:09,760 --> 00:32:14,200
Speaker 1: fascinating spending time with Rick and Jeanie with actually amazingly

607
00:32:14,480 --> 00:32:19,640
Speaker 1: some breaking news here from Washington. The Chips Act has

608
00:32:19,680 --> 00:32:23,200
Speaker 1: passed its procedural Senate vote here UH to be able

609
00:32:23,280 --> 00:32:25,760
Speaker 1: to move ahead. And you know, we've been waiting for this,

610
00:32:26,000 --> 00:32:27,760
Speaker 1: my goodness, for the better part of a year. There

611
00:32:27,840 --> 00:32:29,840
Speaker 1: was an event today that took place at the White House.

612
00:32:30,320 --> 00:32:32,680
Speaker 1: President Biden trying to push along the Chip Act, and

613
00:32:32,760 --> 00:32:35,600
Speaker 1: he surrounded himself virtually. Of course, he was on screen

614
00:32:36,200 --> 00:32:39,960
Speaker 1: by some White House officials like Brian Deese. Even the

615
00:32:40,160 --> 00:32:43,560
Speaker 1: Deputy Defense Secretary was there. And but that's where we're going.

616
00:32:43,680 --> 00:32:47,600
Speaker 1: This was framed as almost a national security event. He

617
00:32:47,720 --> 00:32:52,880
Speaker 1: had the CEO of Lockheed Martin among others. They're speaking.

618
00:32:53,000 --> 00:32:58,280
Speaker 1: Jim Taselet talked about the national security aspect of of

619
00:32:58,440 --> 00:33:01,280
Speaker 1: this semiconductor chip shortage that we're in right now, the

620
00:33:01,400 --> 00:33:04,240
Speaker 1: need to do more. Listen, because much of the production

621
00:33:04,360 --> 00:33:08,760
Speaker 1: is in China and in Taiwan, access to be guaranteed

622
00:33:08,840 --> 00:33:13,800
Speaker 1: for US industry, including in defense industry, is fragile. You know.

623
00:33:13,880 --> 00:33:17,520
Speaker 1: She China decide to withhold its production or inhibit Taiwan

624
00:33:17,680 --> 00:33:21,720
Speaker 1: from exporting its chips or building them, we would have

625
00:33:21,880 --> 00:33:25,200
Speaker 1: a serious economic and eventually national security issue on our hands,

626
00:33:25,240 --> 00:33:28,280
Speaker 1: and so given the long league times for producing a

627
00:33:28,400 --> 00:33:31,440
Speaker 1: fab and building the factories, it is important in urgent

628
00:33:31,520 --> 00:33:36,160
Speaker 1: to begin to rebuild US semiconductor chip manufacturer in the US.

629
00:33:36,560 --> 00:33:39,280
Speaker 1: I find this interesting that that the timing behind this

630
00:33:39,440 --> 00:33:41,600
Speaker 1: event today because it's something that we've talked about on

631
00:33:41,640 --> 00:33:44,080
Speaker 1: the air quite a bit. We've asked Secretary Gina Romando

632
00:33:44,120 --> 00:33:46,680
Speaker 1: about it when she's come on. We haven't asked Pentagon

633
00:33:46,760 --> 00:33:49,520
Speaker 1: officials about it that you know, isn't this a major problem?

634
00:33:49,560 --> 00:33:52,840
Speaker 1: We not only hear about washing machines and cars, but

635
00:33:53,040 --> 00:33:57,440
Speaker 1: weapons systems, aircraft that the government, that the military needs

636
00:33:57,520 --> 00:34:00,920
Speaker 1: and so forth. Uh, Genie, shouldn't White House have have

637
00:34:01,240 --> 00:34:03,640
Speaker 1: done this from the beginning, taking this angle from the

638
00:34:03,720 --> 00:34:06,520
Speaker 1: very beginning. They should have. And I give them credit,

639
00:34:06,600 --> 00:34:09,399
Speaker 1: and I specifically give Gina Romando credit. I think she's

640
00:34:09,440 --> 00:34:12,160
Speaker 1: done a masterful job helping move this through. She's even

641
00:34:12,200 --> 00:34:15,239
Speaker 1: had the supportive people like former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.

642
00:34:15,760 --> 00:34:19,760
Speaker 1: You know this, Yeah, this is truly a bipartisan movement.

643
00:34:19,800 --> 00:34:22,560
Speaker 1: I'm not surprised it just cleared. But the argument, and

644
00:34:22,680 --> 00:34:25,000
Speaker 1: Chuck Schumer made it the other day this isn't our

645
00:34:25,080 --> 00:34:29,080
Speaker 1: benefit both financially and also from a national security perspective.

646
00:34:29,120 --> 00:34:31,600
Speaker 1: It needs to get done. And so you're right, they

647
00:34:32,239 --> 00:34:34,440
Speaker 1: are making the right move doing this now. Could they

648
00:34:34,480 --> 00:34:37,200
Speaker 1: have done it sooner, sure, but you know good they

649
00:34:37,280 --> 00:34:39,839
Speaker 1: did it now? Well fair enough, but my goodness has

650
00:34:39,840 --> 00:34:41,920
Speaker 1: already it takes a long time to get a foundry

651
00:34:41,960 --> 00:34:45,000
Speaker 1: going here. Rick and Intel has since the time this

652
00:34:45,480 --> 00:34:50,440
Speaker 1: was negotiated what six months ago, has delayed, has postponed

653
00:34:50,480 --> 00:34:53,280
Speaker 1: the groundbreaking on it's on its big plant in Ohio.

654
00:34:53,880 --> 00:34:56,960
Speaker 1: You've got Gina Romando talking about other companies being wooed

655
00:34:57,000 --> 00:35:00,640
Speaker 1: by other countries. Uh, we do and have to wait

656
00:35:00,680 --> 00:35:02,480
Speaker 1: a year. Did we know we didn't have to wait

657
00:35:02,520 --> 00:35:06,400
Speaker 1: a year? Um? This administration lost momentum around this by

658
00:35:06,480 --> 00:35:08,839
Speaker 1: putting other things like build back Better in their way.

659
00:35:09,400 --> 00:35:12,160
Speaker 1: That turned out to be an abject failure congressionally. And

660
00:35:12,400 --> 00:35:16,040
Speaker 1: so now they're turning after that failure to this as

661
00:35:16,160 --> 00:35:19,440
Speaker 1: a play saver. This administration has to learn it has

662
00:35:19,520 --> 00:35:21,600
Speaker 1: to do more than one thing at a time. Uh.

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00:35:21,800 --> 00:35:24,279
Speaker 1: Congress is able to process these things. This was a

664
00:35:24,440 --> 00:35:28,400
Speaker 1: bipartisan bill. UH could have gone through any time if

665
00:35:28,440 --> 00:35:30,840
Speaker 1: the administration had turned its attention to it and worked

666
00:35:30,840 --> 00:35:32,759
Speaker 1: it hard. And the idea that we've given up a

667
00:35:32,840 --> 00:35:36,040
Speaker 1: year to the Chinese regardless of what it takes to

668
00:35:36,080 --> 00:35:39,640
Speaker 1: build a factory, Uh, makes no sense strategically. Well, I know,

669
00:35:39,760 --> 00:35:42,120
Speaker 1: Gina Romando to to to Genie's point, is spent an

670
00:35:42,239 --> 00:35:44,839
Speaker 1: enormous amount of time on this. It's just I don't

671
00:35:44,880 --> 00:35:46,359
Speaker 1: know how many plates you can have in the air

672
00:35:46,760 --> 00:35:48,799
Speaker 1: and you know, pick one to be the priority here.

673
00:35:49,320 --> 00:35:51,320
Speaker 1: I'd be curious to hear both of you, though, Genie,

674
00:35:51,360 --> 00:35:53,440
Speaker 1: what what does it mean to have Joe Mansion out

675
00:35:53,520 --> 00:35:55,920
Speaker 1: with COVID right now? It's they've got another what two

676
00:35:55,960 --> 00:35:58,319
Speaker 1: weeks in the Senate to play with to get this done,

677
00:35:58,360 --> 00:36:01,840
Speaker 1: to get reconciliation done? Is that even possible? It's a

678
00:36:01,960 --> 00:36:04,560
Speaker 1: lot on their plate. I think they can do it

679
00:36:04,719 --> 00:36:06,879
Speaker 1: if they stick to doing things like this Chip Act,

680
00:36:07,000 --> 00:36:09,480
Speaker 1: the things you can get through a fifty fifty Senate,

681
00:36:09,800 --> 00:36:12,040
Speaker 1: and I you know, it is tough to lose anybody,

682
00:36:12,120 --> 00:36:15,359
Speaker 1: you know, that's that's always tough, especially with I think

683
00:36:15,400 --> 00:36:17,279
Speaker 1: they can do it. They may have to call the

684
00:36:17,360 --> 00:36:19,520
Speaker 1: house back because they don't have much time before the

685
00:36:19,560 --> 00:36:21,759
Speaker 1: August recess to get all this stuff through. Yeah, well,

686
00:36:21,800 --> 00:36:24,399
Speaker 1: we all know, reconciliation takes forever. Rick, is that even

687
00:36:24,440 --> 00:36:27,719
Speaker 1: realistic to be talking about mansion in the House. I

688
00:36:27,880 --> 00:36:29,719
Speaker 1: think they can rush it through if they want. Look,

689
00:36:29,800 --> 00:36:32,160
Speaker 1: the only thing worse than having Joe manin is not

690
00:36:32,320 --> 00:36:35,120
Speaker 1: having Joe manson. And and so, you know, if I

691
00:36:35,239 --> 00:36:37,880
Speaker 1: were the administration, I have Dr Fauci posted up on

692
00:36:38,000 --> 00:36:40,160
Speaker 1: his you know, doorstep, making sure he's got all the

693
00:36:40,280 --> 00:36:42,920
Speaker 1: necessary tools that he needs to get through this as

694
00:36:43,000 --> 00:36:45,680
Speaker 1: quick as he can. There's a lot of procedural activity

695
00:36:45,760 --> 00:36:47,440
Speaker 1: that doesn't need his vote, but when it comes to

696
00:36:47,480 --> 00:36:49,880
Speaker 1: final passage, he needs to be there. There You have

697
00:36:50,000 --> 00:36:52,759
Speaker 1: it from Rick Davis and Jeannie Chanzano. A new week

698
00:36:52,920 --> 00:36:57,200
Speaker 1: underway with always so much to talk about. Our signature

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00:36:57,239 --> 00:36:59,960
Speaker 1: panel on the Fastest Hour in Politics. I'm Joe Matthew

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Speaker 1: in Washington. We'll meet you back here tomorrow for more.

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Speaker 1: Subscribe to the podcast. If you showed up late, Bloomberg

702
00:37:05,560 --> 00:37:09,319
Speaker 1: sound on, We'll see you early tomorrow morning. On Surveillance