Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.
Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along
Speaker 2: with Paul Sweeney. Join us each day for insight from
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Speaker 2: Stats Kim Dawson, New Edge Wealth. Who you know, people
Speaker 2: make jokes about it, but there's strategists that have a
Speaker 2: conviction in the market. Kim Dawson, I think the bears
Speaker 2: percolated this weekend off the calendar and said, OMG, now's
Speaker 2: the time to get out. Why are you still in the.
Speaker 1: Market because the trend is still up, momentum is positive,
Speaker 1: and liquidity is supportive.
Speaker 3: I think that we.
Speaker 1: Are very attuned to the brewing risks, meaning that for
Speaker 1: the first time in twelve months, you saw GDP forecast
Speaker 1: get cut on Friday.
Speaker 3: That's significant.
Speaker 4: I was on a beache.
Speaker 1: So for the last eighteen months, we've been seeing a
Speaker 1: rising growth forecast environment, which has been really good for
Speaker 1: risk assets. It's allowed valuations to continue to expand, EPs
Speaker 1: estimates to continue to drift higher. If that starts to
Speaker 1: change in a more meaningful way, then we would grow
Speaker 1: more cautious. But really it's a matter of balancing the
Speaker 1: fact that you still have this positive trend with some
Speaker 1: of these brewing risks.
Speaker 4: You know, Torsten Slock was out with a good note
Speaker 4: in the last couple of days, our good friend over
Speaker 4: at Apollo. The top ten companies in the S and
Speaker 4: P five hundred makeup thirty five percent of the market cap,
Speaker 4: but only twenty three percent of the earnings. Talking about
Speaker 4: that concentration risk in the market, how much of a
Speaker 4: risk is that for you if an Nvidia or somebody
Speaker 4: else really just really disappoint somewhere along the line.
Speaker 1: One of the phrases that we keep repeating is that
Speaker 1: trees can grow a lot longer than you think, but
Speaker 1: they usually stop short of the sky, meaning that eventually
Speaker 1: you're going to have a challenge where you will have
Speaker 1: priced all of these unending growth parts of the market
Speaker 1: at such lofty valuations that even if they deliver growth,
Speaker 1: you will see an unwind in the valuation. The problem
Speaker 1: is you need a catalyst and you need earnings to
Speaker 1: stop going up.
Speaker 2: What's important, your folks, is cam Dawson brings bulletproof mathematics
Speaker 2: to this. She's not just spouting paragraphs. Do you have
Speaker 2: a discount of cash flow model or some form of
Speaker 2: net present value study that allows you to stay in
Speaker 2: the market? How do you get there?
Speaker 1: I will say that we are in very rarefied air
Speaker 1: for valuations, and so if you're just looking at fundamentals,
Speaker 1: what you have to acknowledge is that you're back up
Speaker 1: to twenty twenty twenty twenty one levels of valuations. So
Speaker 1: if you do a DCF, you would argue that focussally
Speaker 1: we are over.
Speaker 2: You slam your terminal value more present and put extra
Speaker 2: weight on quarterly and annual free cash flow assumptions. That
Speaker 2: seems to be the rationalization.
Speaker 1: Look, every time you try to say this time is different,
Speaker 1: that's usually when you run headfirst into a market peak.
Speaker 3: Go back to December of twenty twenty one.
Speaker 1: Robert Schiller came out and said, don't worry about high
Speaker 1: valuations because interest rates are so low. We ended up
Speaker 1: being in a bubble for both equities and for bonds,
Speaker 1: and that's twenty two was a bad year. I think
Speaker 1: that that discipline about valuation needs to be very, very present,
Speaker 1: which just means we're not chasing growth stocks at this time.
Speaker 1: And if we're looking within the growth index, we're looking
Speaker 1: at names that are trading at a discount to the index.
Speaker 5: Where do I go here?
Speaker 4: I'm afraid of tech stocks? Do I go, financials, energy industrials?
Speaker 4: Where does a normal person go?
Speaker 1: I think that there are plenty of opportunities outside of
Speaker 1: the megacap stocks, but you have to be highly selective,
Speaker 1: which means that we don't think that you should be
Speaker 1: indexing your value your international or your small cap. Meaning
Speaker 1: active management is absolutely imperative because there's a big divergence
Speaker 1: between the winners and the losers in that space. And
Speaker 1: so if you can look at names with high free
Speaker 1: cash flows, strong return at invested capital, good growing dividends,
Speaker 1: all the things that we love as long term investors,
Speaker 1: you weed out the strength from the weakness, and that's
Speaker 1: where you can cut value, and.
Speaker 2: The textbook will say, out of one hundred stocks, thirty
Speaker 2: have strength, seventy have weakness. How do you find a
Speaker 2: seventy percent you don't want to own?
Speaker 1: Yeah, well, it's a combination of the fundamentals and then
Speaker 1: that discipline around the technicals, which is that what we
Speaker 1: do is we screen up names that do have high debt,
Speaker 1: meaning that they rely on capital markets just to keep
Speaker 1: the lights on. We screen up names that have really
Speaker 1: volatile free cash flow generation.
Speaker 3: We want stability in that.
Speaker 1: And then what we're trying to identify is those names
Speaker 1: that have high roc return on invested capital. Every dollar
Speaker 1: they put into the business they generate more out. That
Speaker 1: doesn't mean you get the stocks right at every moment,
Speaker 1: because a lot of those names are still being left
Speaker 1: behind in this extraordinarily narrow market.
Speaker 4: What we reminded, I guess Thursday night into Friday, is
Speaker 4: this is an election year and there's election political risk
Speaker 4: in the marketplace. When you talk to your clients, how
Speaker 4: do you talk to them about what could be a
Speaker 4: volatile time on the political front over the next six months.
Speaker 1: I think we have to first identify what neither party
Speaker 1: is talking about, which is balance budgets in austerity. So
Speaker 1: no matter what party you affiliate with, you have to
Speaker 1: acknowledge that both parties are going to probably contribute to
Speaker 1: higher deficits, which just means that the bond market is
Speaker 1: going to have to continue to.
Speaker 3: Digest this higher issuance of treasuries.
Speaker 1: That could mean a step you'll curve through a bear steepening,
Speaker 1: and it could mean this continued drift higher in the
Speaker 1: long end of the curve.
Speaker 2: Let me double use of cash here. It's real simple
Speaker 2: use of cash, share buy back, gibbling growth. And I'd
Speaker 2: compound with that the nascon idea that big tech and
Speaker 2: other companies frankly will issue more bonds. Am I onto
Speaker 2: something there?
Speaker 3: They don't do they need to.
Speaker 2: I think they don't need to. That's precisely the point.
Speaker 2: But you do it and you retire stock. I mean,
Speaker 2: that's the big It's Mario Gabelli one on one.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that the calculus for using debt in
Speaker 1: order to do share repurchases is less attractive at today's rates.
Speaker 1: But to your point, credit spreads are also extraordinarily tight,
Speaker 1: so you could take advantage of say, yes, my base
Speaker 1: yield is higher, but nobody really is demanding extra compensation
Speaker 1: for credit risk.
Speaker 3: The triple B to double B spread is.
Speaker 1: Actually tighter today than it was in twenty twenty one,
Speaker 1: showing just how price per perfection the credit market is.
Speaker 2: I mean, right right there, I think, Paul, that's the
Speaker 2: quote of the day here is the bond market is
Speaker 2: telling the equity market what to do. The most important
Speaker 2: thing that happened last quarter was at home Depot Yep,
Speaker 2: they had a bond offering. Was a four foot starts. Yeah,
Speaker 2: that's the.
Speaker 4: Most important exactly the last quarter. What are you guys
Speaker 4: thinking about our feed of reserve here this year? When, if, when?
Speaker 4: How many times? What are you guys factoring in?
Speaker 1: I think that the Fed is far more balanced, and
Speaker 1: this is their words, We're more balanced in the risks
Speaker 1: between unemployment going up and inflation going up, meaning that
Speaker 1: they are growing more concerned about some of this fraying
Speaker 1: in the labor market. We are already at their four
Speaker 1: point two four point zero percent target for unemployment this year,
Speaker 1: which just means that if we creep higher into that
Speaker 1: four point two zone, it could be the room for
Speaker 1: them to be able to cut.
Speaker 2: We're got to rip up the scripture, sure on it.
Speaker 2: I mean, YouTube's on fire. There's a there's a woman
Speaker 2: or guy here, I don't know which, and their daughter's
Speaker 2: watching you right now, and the daughter wants to be you.
Speaker 2: How did you get into the academics of finance? How
Speaker 2: did you get so damn smart?
Speaker 1: Down in Florida, Down in Florida, the caveat look. I
Speaker 1: think read a lot of books, be a voracious reader,
Speaker 1: and I think that the study of economics is the
Speaker 1: most beautiful study in a liberal arts education.
Speaker 3: You get mac theology book.
Speaker 4: I just told my nineteen year old that yesterday.
Speaker 2: What's the number one investment book that changed your life?
Speaker 2: I know mine, but you know what was the one
Speaker 2: where you said, hey, this is interesting. Yeah, no, not
Speaker 2: flying on one engine? What was the book? What was
Speaker 2: the book that you know? You're seventeen, eighteen years old
Speaker 2: and it was an investment book. Yeah.
Speaker 1: I think More Money than God is a fantastic book,
Speaker 1: sabashed Malaby about some of the great hedge fund investors.
Speaker 1: I think that books like Austerity, which is a fantastic
Speaker 1: book about politics and economics coming out of the year.
Speaker 2: For me, it was against the Gods. Peter Burnstein, you know, on.
Speaker 3: Risk and uncertainty, Wealth born Wisdom, Martin Biggs.
Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely fascinating, talking about seeing through volatility essential reads.
Speaker 2: We're going to rip up the script. We're going to
Speaker 2: put this on single best Idea today with Kim Dawson. Here.
Speaker 2: This is how you do it, folks. You got to
Speaker 2: get kids interested in this. You throw the book at
Speaker 2: them and say no TikTok till you read the book
Speaker 2: that Kim Dawson says to read. Right now, we're going
Speaker 2: to migrate to the bond market and gauge. Here the
Speaker 2: coupon the side joins us right now with Franklin Templeton.
Speaker 2: So you're managing for coupon or can you actually give
Speaker 2: me total return?
Speaker 5: So you know, this year, I think total return and
Speaker 5: maybe for a while total return is not looking fabulous
Speaker 5: it is for coupon. I think we're getting to a
Speaker 5: stage where, just if you're just looking at high quality bonds,
Speaker 5: spreads are really coming so much in all the spread sectors,
Speaker 5: and if I I look at I actually see them
Speaker 5: as being pretty fair where they are between we've been
Speaker 5: I've been calling for four twenty five to four seventy
Speaker 5: five most of this year, and I have no reason
Speaker 5: to really alter that very much.
Speaker 2: Kathy Jones with us earlier was Schwaba. She just puts
Speaker 2: out on Twitter an amazing chart and this is something
Speaker 2: I don't look at, Paul, but it's basically ten or
Speaker 2: fifteen bond categories, bank loans, all the stuff Franklin Templeton does, Paul,
Speaker 2: I would have done better in cash.
Speaker 5: I know.
Speaker 2: That's what that's the challenge, exactly. All right.
Speaker 4: So now so in honor of Joe Mysak, who is
Speaker 4: enjoying his first day of retirement today, the Dean of
Speaker 4: municipal Reporters out there talking about the municipal bond market.
Speaker 4: I think I can get some really attractive tax equivalent
Speaker 4: yields out there. How do you view the municial bond market?
Speaker 5: We do like it. We like the municipal market. We
Speaker 5: think technicals are favorable. You know, it was very out
Speaker 5: of favor for most of law Stier enormously so, and
Speaker 5: this year it is coming back and it is one
Speaker 5: of the areas which we like. We think Actually, you know,
Speaker 5: to go back to what you and Tom are just saying,
Speaker 5: you could have done better in cash. This is true, yer,
Speaker 5: but you can't stay in cash. That's the risk, because
Speaker 5: you've got to start dipping your feedback into the bond market.
Speaker 5: My advice would be at least go out for short
Speaker 5: before you before you take the deep dive, because when
Speaker 5: the time comes, you won't always have the yields which
Speaker 5: you currently have now. Total return is something we've gotten
Speaker 5: very used to over the last twenty years of easy
Speaker 5: money and liquidity. But I don't think that that's what.
Speaker 5: That's not where the bond market necessarily is going to
Speaker 5: take us over the next several years. It's going to
Speaker 5: do what it says on the can. It's going to
Speaker 5: deliver a certain amount of income, ideally with less volatility
Speaker 5: than we're seeing right now, as markets adjust to what
Speaker 5: I think is the new state, the new state, which
Speaker 5: is a lot like the old state, which was from
Speaker 5: nineteen fifties until the global financial crisis. You know, bonds
Speaker 5: delivered decent returns, but not equity like returns.
Speaker 4: I'm looking at the Bloomberg US corporate high yield total
Speaker 4: return indext positive two point five to eight percent year
Speaker 4: to date high yield.
Speaker 3: That's your thoughts there, So high yeld.
Speaker 5: Here's the thing that high yield I think, you know
Speaker 5: if you manage it actively, So not buying the index,
Speaker 5: high yield can actually deliver a decent return, but once again,
Speaker 5: what you're really looking at is the overall yield that
Speaker 5: you're getting from it, and what you're getting in total
Speaker 5: from high yield bonds right now is between seven and
Speaker 5: eight percent, which relative to what you've gotten over the
Speaker 5: last couple of decades, is really not terrible. However, in
Speaker 5: spread terms, we definitely are tight, which means that the
Speaker 5: cushion against things like defaults is not is not very high. Therefore,
Speaker 5: troking my book a little bit here, you have to
Speaker 5: be active. You can't just jump in there and buy
Speaker 5: these indices because there's very very little cushion against defaults.
Speaker 5: I'm not anticipating a massive slowdown which would really get
Speaker 5: us going towards a space of high level defaults. We
Speaker 5: actually think corporate health is pretty solid right now, but
Speaker 5: I would not want to buy any indices, whether it's
Speaker 5: bank Clon's or high yield or investment grade at this point.
Speaker 2: Should on de side. Thank you so much joining us now, Leslie,
Speaker 2: Benja Murray, Chathamhouse on all that's going on in Washington prior. Frankly,
Speaker 2: she saw this coming, which helps out Leslie not so
Speaker 2: much now what But if we've forgotten that we're supposed
Speaker 2: to have contested elections. We had the Bush Royalty, the
Speaker 2: Obama Royalty, maybe the Clinton royalty times two. I guess
Speaker 2: have we forgotten that it's okay to have a Donnybrook
Speaker 2: to the convention?
Speaker 6: I think we've gotten very risk averse. American politics is tough,
Speaker 6: it's expensive, The electoral system is a very high bar.
Speaker 6: Name recognition is everything. So you know, you might be
Speaker 6: cynical about the American people. I'm not, but I do
Speaker 6: think the system and the institutions make people very verse.
Speaker 6: People at the top of the party structures.
Speaker 2: All the money that's being involved, Mister Cassenberg is driving
Speaker 2: the donor component of this debate in the last seventy
Speaker 2: two hours, and I get the idea that money can
Speaker 2: go to the vice president. Can these other candidates if
Speaker 2: we get to that, can they run to the convention
Speaker 2: in eight weeks? I believe it is with less money,
Speaker 2: or can they not run because they don't have a
Speaker 2: gajillion dollars?
Speaker 6: You know that, as we all know, the first the
Speaker 6: first thing that has to be decided is by President
Speaker 6: Biden whether he's going to run. If he decides not
Speaker 6: to run. Then, of course the entire field opens up
Speaker 6: in a way that you know, we don't have a
Speaker 6: good roadmap for because it's not the normal scenario. But
Speaker 6: could donors get behind a new candidate, Yes, of course
Speaker 6: they could. And this is the conversation that everybody is
Speaker 6: having pretty much around the clock since the debate. But
Speaker 6: so far, you know what we know, and I suspect
Speaker 6: we know a lot less than what's actually transpiring. Is
Speaker 6: that the Biden teamer are locking in. But watch the space.
Speaker 6: One more very significant stumble by President Biden that would
Speaker 6: be difficult to recover, and the very bad scenario is
Speaker 6: that that happens far too late to make a change.
Speaker 6: There are a lot of people now that think that
Speaker 6: they're the vote for Donald Trump is just going to
Speaker 6: be much stronger than people will stay home that we're
Speaker 6: sort of on the fence and thinking about maybe voting
Speaker 6: for President Biden. This is a very risky period and
Speaker 6: comes September when politics and students in America is sort
Speaker 6: of back from the summer. It's going to be a
Speaker 6: very difficult campaign season of very difficult politics. We're a
Speaker 6: little bit on hiatus through July and August, even with
Speaker 6: the conventions.
Speaker 4: Leslie Matt from the fifth floor writes in and just asked,
Speaker 4: was Thursday night just a bad night? Or is it
Speaker 4: something more? If it's something more, what role does a
Speaker 4: democratic I guess party have in kind of suggesting where
Speaker 4: we go from here? Or is it entirely up to
Speaker 4: President Biden?
Speaker 6: Look, I have two answers to that. One is that
Speaker 6: ken President Biden governed for four more years. Absolutely, he
Speaker 6: has an extraordinary team of people around him and pretty
Speaker 6: much every single issue that matters. He doesn't have to
Speaker 6: work twelve hour days. He can make decisions, but let
Speaker 6: other people really do the daily work and the hard
Speaker 6: work of governing. The bigger question, though, is can you
Speaker 6: get elected? And you know, was it a blip? It
Speaker 6: doesn't really matter if it was a blip. The American
Speaker 6: people of the world watched the so called blip. They
Speaker 6: will make their own decisions about whether it was a blip.
Speaker 6: And undoubtedly it is going to unsettle the confidence of
Speaker 6: very many people that were already concerned.
Speaker 2: A couple times this weekend the phrase smoke filled rooms
Speaker 2: came up. I mean, I'm old enough to remember sixty
Speaker 2: eight quite clearly. I guess we're going to redox it
Speaker 2: in Chicago. Define the smoke filled rooms Leslie vin Ja
Speaker 2: Murray of twenty twenty four.
Speaker 6: Now you're going to have to define the smoke filled rooms. Tom,
Speaker 6: I mean, I think it's just not being able to
Speaker 6: see through clearly to what's coming next. On the sixty eight.
Speaker 6: You know everybody wants to go back to nineteen sixty eight. Sure,
Speaker 6: there are some really significant lessons and parallels there. But
Speaker 6: history is, you know, history, what doesn't repeat itself, it
Speaker 6: does rhyme.
Speaker 2: Yeah, let's say, but I think this is really important.
Speaker 2: I'm sorry, but is there no more small field rooms
Speaker 2: because there's a monopoly of a family that runs a
Speaker 2: given party. I don't want to get a Democrat Republican here,
Speaker 2: but there used to be a conversation nationally with cigars
Speaker 2: in hand among a party. Is that like a fiction
Speaker 2: now where it's just run by the critics would say
Speaker 2: the president and the first lady.
Speaker 6: No, I suspect. And again, Tom, this is where we
Speaker 6: don't know everything we'd like to know. We know what
Speaker 6: the New York Times has said, we know what the
Speaker 6: Wall Street Journal has said, we know what the ft
Speaker 6: and the economists have said. The end of the day,
Speaker 6: those conversations are happening. Of course they're happening. They're happening
Speaker 6: out of sight and certainly out of hearing distance. And
Speaker 6: this is why, you know, everybody over the weekend who's
Speaker 6: talking is saying that the Biden team is locking down,
Speaker 6: that they're going to keep the keep President Biden on
Speaker 6: the ticket. And and maybe that's the case, but they're
Speaker 6: certainly not going to say, well, we're not sure. I
Speaker 6: imagine the volatility, uncertainty at a time of two major wars,
Speaker 6: a China threat, you know, a whole amount of global disarray, dysfunction, polarization,
Speaker 6: that's you don't send the signal until you until or
Speaker 6: unless you've made a decision there we will hear nothing
Speaker 6: from the top unless they make that decision.
Speaker 4: Leslie. What's going to happen at this convention. It seems
Speaker 4: like Tom and I need to pay attention to this
Speaker 4: convention coming up.
Speaker 6: I think we all need to pay attention to this convention.
Speaker 6: You know, we can imagine a couple of different scenarios.
Speaker 6: We can imagine that it just sort of goes talking
Speaker 6: obviously about August and not about July. It's a shame
Speaker 6: they're not reversed in terms of the timing. But August
Speaker 6: it could just go as as as planned, or we
Speaker 6: might be in a situation where we are looking at
Speaker 6: Josh Hero, Gretchen Whitmer, Gavin Newsom, you know a number
Speaker 6: of candidates that whose names are out, and about Kamala
Speaker 6: Harris obviously, you know, perhaps to staying as a vice
Speaker 6: president with somebody else on top. There are all sorts
Speaker 6: of scenarios and conversations going on, but that, again, we know,
Speaker 6: depends on the decision that ultimately President Biden opt Tom.
Speaker 2: We gotta go, doctor Vinjaminry, thank you so much. I'm
Speaker 2: a little congested, Lisa, please.
Speaker 7: Sir, very good transition.
Speaker 5: I like that.
Speaker 7: We were just talking about New Jersey transit raising prices.
Speaker 7: My goodness, let's make this transition so congestion pricing in
Speaker 7: New York. It could be getting a new life, but
Speaker 7: it could be okay, So state lawmakers, The New York
Speaker 7: Times says they've been privately this informal campaign to persuade
Speaker 7: Governor Holcal to move ahead with the tolls, but make
Speaker 7: them less expensive, so below the fifteen dollars. They say
Speaker 7: they won't mind adjusting that toll other features of the plan,
Speaker 7: because approving additional revenue could make up for the shortfall
Speaker 7: to the MBA MTA, but only if this program is
Speaker 7: allowed to move forward. So if it moves forward, they said, well,
Speaker 7: let's try and bring the price down a little bit.
Speaker 7: I mean, in London we talked about this. London had
Speaker 7: an initial fee that was half the fifteen dollars charge
Speaker 7: that's being proposed to vehicles in New York City. So
Speaker 7: they're saying, hey, if London, you know, brought it out
Speaker 7: at a cheaper price.
Speaker 4: Well, they've already installed all the monitors all around Manhattan.
Speaker 4: I mean, I don't know what that costs. But here
Speaker 4: on Lexington Avenue and sixty Street you can see them
Speaker 4: right there.
Speaker 7: They're right there.
Speaker 4: They're and they're huge. They're not, I mean they're.
Speaker 7: So they're say, seriously, let's put him to use. Yes, OK,
Speaker 7: but just at a lower price. All right, we'll know
Speaker 7: how that will.
Speaker 4: We'll roll that by John Tucker at some point, see
Speaker 4: what he thinks.
Speaker 2: I don't know where this goes, other than when I
Speaker 2: read about the projects, they're mostly projects we need. They're
Speaker 2: not like desolutely as they're like, okay, we're twenty million
Speaker 2: plus people. We need this, and now we can't do this. Ye,
Speaker 2: and there's people that are saying, you know, no fees,
Speaker 2: like they're like Sweeney in the New Jersey transit thing.
Speaker 2: But I to me, it's just fifteen dollars. Yeah, that's
Speaker 2: you forgot. You gotta pop down to the new era
Speaker 2: baseball cap store at Times Square to keep the little
Speaker 2: one happy. Fifteen bucks to go down and get a
Speaker 2: stupid baseball cap add on it. That's how I look
Speaker 2: at this.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm not sure what the price point is, but
Speaker 4: hopefully they can come up with one next.
Speaker 7: All Right. New York Post is pointing to more evidence
Speaker 7: workers in New York City are coming back.
Speaker 4: To the office.
Speaker 7: You guys haven't seen this year, you're not buying it.
Speaker 7: This is according to the Real Estate Board of New
Speaker 7: York Manhattan office visitations. That's what they're saying. In May,
Speaker 7: we're about seventy four percent of level working today new
Speaker 7: visiting are you working? So they base it on visits
Speaker 7: right to about three hundred and fifty office buildings. They
Speaker 7: based it on cell phone records, but also the retail
Speaker 7: traffic in those buildings too, So they're trying to show
Speaker 7: that more people, yes.
Speaker 4: Working, we're still like seventy five percent of pre pandemic
Speaker 4: or something, right.
Speaker 7: Seventy four percent, Yeah, pre pandemic level.
Speaker 2: Do you believe it.
Speaker 3: I'm starting to.
Speaker 7: See more people coming to the office. When I'm talking
Speaker 7: with friends, are like, yeah, we're back like three days
Speaker 7: now instead of fully from Soacre.
Speaker 2: For here, folks, rich, can you get the surveillance cork
Speaker 2: out and put it in my mouth right now? Save
Speaker 2: my employment?
Speaker 7: But look at the flow of people.
Speaker 2: I look at Lexington Avenue.
Speaker 4: Today's a Monday, there's coming up.
Speaker 2: I look at the I look at Lexington Avenue and
Speaker 2: here's the way I look at it. Folks. You're twenty
Speaker 2: something years old, you got a bunch of fancy degrees.
Speaker 2: You're lucky to work at one zero zero xx and
Speaker 2: you're not in on Friday when you can get twenty
Speaker 2: minutes or forty minutes with somebody twenty five years older
Speaker 2: with you to pontificate about wisdom. Yeah, that's that to me,
Speaker 2: that's missing.
Speaker 4: I agree, But I'm I think the hybrid thing is
Speaker 4: here to stay, and that might be that might be
Speaker 4: something that the workforce can be about.
Speaker 2: Come on, Bob, get the court down, next save me mixed.
Speaker 7: How much would you need to make to feel financially secure?
Speaker 7: This is a question that's being put out there. There's
Speaker 7: a study from Bank Great that says, on average, Americans
Speaker 7: think they would need to make one hundred and eighty
Speaker 7: six thousand dollars just to feel comfortable. But if you
Speaker 7: think about it, according to Census Bureau data, it's more
Speaker 7: than two times with the average full time, year round
Speaker 7: worker made in twenty twenty two. So just thirty per
Speaker 7: seven cent percent said that they are likely to even
Speaker 7: earn that much. So people are feeling like they're they're
Speaker 7: not financially secure. That's up from like seventy two percent
Speaker 7: twenty twenty three. Older Americans, baby boomers, gen xers, they're
Speaker 7: more likely to feel that way. And if they want
Speaker 7: to feel financially rich, they have to make five hundred
Speaker 7: and twenty thousand dollars, that's what they're saying.
Speaker 2: This came up not once, but twice this week, and
Speaker 2: I'm sure all of you had the same thing, all
Speaker 2: of you listening across this nation. It's simple. The system's broken,
Speaker 2: and the discussion there's no other way to put it.
Speaker 4: And I think inflation these higher prices that everybody's paying
Speaker 4: for a lot of goods and services. That's making you
Speaker 4: feel probably less secure because I mean you just whatever
Speaker 4: dollar you are making is not buying as much as
Speaker 4: it did four or five, six years ago. So that
Speaker 4: inflation shock that we've all dealt with is still there,
Speaker 4: and I think it's the top of mind for everybody.
Speaker 4: You go to COSTC, you go to a restaurant, you
Speaker 4: go anywhere, I mean.
Speaker 2: Quickly here, you got to have a tough mother like
Speaker 2: Lisa Matteo. Yeah, I mean that's really the first order
Speaker 2: condition because a lot of these kids are just not
Speaker 2: working like we worked. I mean, we thought nothing working
Speaker 2: seventy hours a week, eighty hours a week. It was
Speaker 2: just seven days a week. It was understood.
Speaker 7: Next times changeing, well, you know, it's also changing how
Speaker 7: much money goes into your for one K. Yes, new
Speaker 7: hires putting more money into it, but it's not actually
Speaker 7: their choice in some reasons because the six percent saving
Speaker 7: that's what they're putting into. It's a new standard for
Speaker 7: nearly a third of companies. They use automatic for a
Speaker 7: one K enrollment, So companies are automatically rolling into that
Speaker 7: six percent.
Speaker 4: So you don't opt in, they just take it automatic.
Speaker 2: Really Yeah, major shout out Peter Orzag right right in
Speaker 2: the shop now at Lazard. Peter Orzag at Brookings years
Speaker 2: ago led the charging this. I can't convey how lone
Speaker 2: voice he was on opt in and Peter Orizec coming
Speaker 2: out of LLC with all of his great academics, said
Speaker 2: this is the only way we're going to get it solved.
Speaker 2: My only problem with that is it's six percent correct
Speaker 2: and not more. And I, you know, I don't know
Speaker 2: how we get there. I'll let senior management any given
Speaker 2: firm figure that out. But Orzag drove the boat on this.
Speaker 7: Yeah, but a lot more come sixty percent of companies.
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