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Speaker 1: Fresh episode of Fishbits here on the Fish Streps podcast channel,

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Speaker 1: covering the Miami Marlins from every single angle imaginable. And

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Speaker 1: on this episode, we're going to touch on some topics

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Speaker 1: that we hadn't really brought to your attention so far

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Speaker 1: about the twenty twenty season, and that's how to bet

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Speaker 1: on the Marlins and Major League Baseball in general here

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Speaker 1: in twenty twenty a shortened season, only sixty games instead

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Speaker 1: of one to sixty two, and that's even being hopeful

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Speaker 1: that COVID nineteen doesn't disrupt anything that's going on. So

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Speaker 1: we're going to see some crazy things happening this year,

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Speaker 1: both specifically Marlins and with the league overall. And we

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Speaker 1: want to overall, we just want to make you some

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Speaker 1: money out of this situations as best we can. And

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Speaker 1: to help me with that, we're gonna have Tyler Wilson

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Speaker 1: right here try to guide us in the right directions

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Speaker 1: about where to put your money and just out of

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Speaker 1: general curiosity, how the league is going to look so

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Speaker 1: much different this year compared to the normal year. Glad

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Speaker 1: to have you back on the show, Tyler.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, thank you, I appreciate it.

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Speaker 3: I just want to share the sentiment We're just here

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Speaker 3: to make your money as the best that we can,

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Speaker 3: so so mean awhile season, but hopefully we can at

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Speaker 3: least turn a profit while you're watching the games and

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Speaker 3: give you something a little bit more exciting and incentive

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Speaker 3: to root for.

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Speaker 2: So it's gonna be a great year.

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Speaker 1: Tyler has special incentives to do well this year and

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Speaker 1: to be responsible with his money now that he's a father.

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Speaker 1: Just had a baby girl earlier this summer, and so

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Speaker 1: he's going to take good care of her by making

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Speaker 1: great decisions and studying on these props to make sure

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Speaker 1: you can pick out those inefficiencies and break even and

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Speaker 1: make a profit when it's all said and done. And

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Speaker 1: but we're gonna spend most of this talking about the Marlins,

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Speaker 1: considering most of our listeners are into the Marlins, and

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Speaker 1: you and I are into the Marlins, and specifically some

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Speaker 1: of these individual players when it comes to batting average

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Speaker 1: that is being projected here for the twenty twenty season,

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Speaker 1: Brian Anderson over under to sixty, Corey Dickerson over under

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Speaker 1: two seventy five, Garrett Cooper to seventy, Jonathan VR to sixty,

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Speaker 1: Miguel Rojas two seventy five. All those guys expected to

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Speaker 1: be everyday players are pretty close to every day players.

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Speaker 1: Which one of those individual guys stuck out to you

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Speaker 1: with this with the line being placed on their batting average,

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Speaker 1: and what opportunities do you see to beat the book

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Speaker 1: in these situations.

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Speaker 3: Well, the first time I'm one hundred percent, I've already

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Speaker 3: bet myself is I'm going with the Batten average over

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Speaker 3: Brian Anderson sixty. I mean, in twenty eighteen he batted

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Speaker 3: two seventy three and twenty nineteen last season he batted

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Speaker 3: two sixty one. So to me, personally, I we we

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Speaker 3: as a Marlins fan base, I think you would agree

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Speaker 3: as well. As we're expecting the emergence of Brian Anderson

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Speaker 3: this year, so I'd say probably he found himself somewhere

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Speaker 3: in the two seventy five range, even if it was

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Speaker 3: one hundred and sixty two games. So to me, Brian

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Speaker 3: Anderson is almost a lock. I think he can definitely

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Speaker 3: eclipse to sixty quite easily. I don't think that's going

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Speaker 3: to be very difficult for him at all. He's a

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Speaker 3: very consistent hitter. Either his contact rate and hard hit

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Speaker 3: percentages or up there good enough to be able to

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Speaker 3: actually get him at that two hundred two sixty batting average,

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Speaker 3: and then the next guy, I mean, Corey Dickerson, it's

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Speaker 3: a two seventy five. He's only hit under let's see

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Speaker 3: two sixty three. He's hit two sixty three and two

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Speaker 3: forty five, and then his second second lower than that

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Speaker 3: is two eighty two back in twenty seventeen with the

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Speaker 3: Tampa Race. The past three years, he's pretty much the

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Speaker 3: past two years, my apologies, has hit over three hundred.

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Speaker 3: So you're gonna give me two seventy five on core Diggerson,

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Speaker 3: who is a good batter who has hit over three hundred.

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Speaker 3: Looks like four times, so why not just get five times?

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Speaker 2: Yeah? Four times? So yeah, I'm one hundred second going

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Speaker 2: to go Courd Diggerson as well.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, Dickerson a guy that has really been underrated

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Speaker 1: for a while just in general across baseball. I mean,

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Speaker 1: some of that is because he just hasn't been available

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Speaker 1: all that often, had some injury issues as recently as

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Speaker 1: last year with his foot, he had an issue with

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Speaker 1: his shoulder. One he's healthy, He's like one of the

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Speaker 1: more consistent payers in the league. And that's for both

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Speaker 1: average and for power, which is why even coming off

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Speaker 1: the kind of injury short season that he had, he's

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Speaker 1: still someone that commanded a two year deal at a

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Speaker 1: pretty big price range because he has that track record.

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Speaker 1: I totally agree on him. Someone like that, and another

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Speaker 1: guy that probably benefits a little bit from the fences

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Speaker 1: coming in at Marlins Park right because in center field

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Speaker 1: and in right center field, coming in at center by

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Speaker 1: seven feet based on border the dimension used to be,

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Speaker 1: it's coming in and right center by five feet. And

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Speaker 1: he's a guy that hits for a lot of his

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Speaker 1: badged balls in that direction in center and right center,

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Speaker 1: and that extra little lift, the extra little difference is

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Speaker 1: what gives him could make a difference in him actually

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Speaker 1: getting balls over the wall and now the stretch of

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Speaker 1: the outfielders glove. So he Yeah, he's a guy that

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Speaker 1: I was a pretty big fan of the signing at

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Speaker 1: the time, and I mean definitely considering the changes that

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Speaker 1: they've made since then, it makes a lot of sense. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: with Jonathan VR, I'm wondering if you do you feel

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Speaker 1: any conviction either way about him, because I guess as

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Speaker 1: an overall player, he could argue he's right up there

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Speaker 1: with one of the best players on the whole team.

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Speaker 1: But like batting average itself, wasn't something that he succeeded

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Speaker 1: that much in last year. I mean it was more

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Speaker 1: of a banner year for his power and his stolen bases.

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Speaker 1: So with him, even if don't necessarily see him being

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Speaker 1: all that strong in the batting average department, I guess

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Speaker 1: it doesn't stop him from actually being a valuable player

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Speaker 1: to the team. Right.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think Johnathon VR, I think he's an excellent

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Speaker 3: player for the field. But the batting average being set

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Speaker 3: at two sixty, which is his career average.

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Speaker 2: He has a career average of two sixty.

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Speaker 3: One, I can't with conviction, I can't tell you please

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Speaker 3: bet the over, or I can't also can't tell you

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Speaker 3: bet the under because I can see it where he

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Speaker 3: maybe he gets lucky on the babbit and he can

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Speaker 3: find his find his way hit the doubles and get

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Speaker 3: over to sixty. So I with conviction, I can't say, hey,

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Speaker 3: let's go Jonathan VR over to sixty or under too sixty.

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Speaker 3: But as I told you earlier, you got the stolen

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Speaker 3: base leader of Jonathan VR at actual nine to one,

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Speaker 3: the lead the league and steals and if you could

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Speaker 3: tell just from a little bit of spring training, I

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Speaker 3: think Don Madden when he's gonna be a little fearless

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Speaker 3: on the base pass between Monte Harris and Jonathan VR,

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Speaker 3: I think they're just gonna let him run. And so

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Speaker 3: I think the actual nine to one play on Jonathan VR,

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Speaker 3: I think it's not a bad play because I think

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Speaker 3: he can lead, he steals if Don Maddenley wants to

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Speaker 3: take the aggressive approach on the basementss.

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Speaker 1: We did see that. It's been a couple of years

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Speaker 1: since we saw that because last couple of years Marlins

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Speaker 1: have been pretty far down in the stolen based department.

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Speaker 1: But more so I would think that just has a

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Speaker 1: lot to do with their personnel, just the specific guys

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Speaker 1: on the team and using their skill sets. I mean,

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Speaker 1: when they had Dee Gordon here in twenty seventeen, he

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Speaker 1: stole sixty bases and had another season prior to that

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Speaker 1: where it was a similar total. That was also under

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Speaker 1: Don Mattingley, So it was the same guy in charge,

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Speaker 1: and he was just more aggressive in those situations because

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Speaker 1: he had a player that had that skill set and

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Speaker 1: had that track record. And even last year John Birdie

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Speaker 1: of course got regular playing time only at the end

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Speaker 1: of last year, but once he did, he was he

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Speaker 1: had the green light basically all the time, and he

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Speaker 1: was super efficient with it. And that was something that

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Speaker 1: maddeningly responds to me, just like adjustice strategy based on

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Speaker 1: who he has. So I like that point with VR

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Speaker 1: being someone that would be we'd be inside that circle

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Speaker 1: of trust. He would be someone that you'd think would

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Speaker 1: be getting a green light just based on the track record.

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Speaker 2: That he has.

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Speaker 1: But we're gonna pivot here to the bigger picture with

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Speaker 1: the team. With the win total being said at twenty

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Speaker 1: four and a half in a sixty game season, So

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Speaker 1: if you think it's if you think they're winning percentage

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Speaker 1: as a team is going to be four hundred or lower,

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Speaker 1: then you'd take the under going over would suggest that

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Speaker 1: this is a team that's gonna win more than forty

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Speaker 1: percent of their games and take a pretty significant step

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Speaker 1: forward from last year. This is a really complicated when

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Speaker 1: we'll spend a lot of time on this, But where

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Speaker 1: are you leaning in terms of the win total?

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Speaker 3: Man, I'll be honest, this is probably I think it's

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Speaker 3: a I lean probably over just because I think the

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Speaker 3: team could be competitive the batting, I think the offense

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Speaker 3: I think can be extremely competitive. But the pitching can

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Speaker 3: it allow can it hold the teams to not give

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Speaker 3: up too much offense? And personally the public is banging

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Speaker 3: the under. The under is the favorite of.

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Speaker 2: Twenty four and a half.

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Speaker 3: But I want to believe and say that over because

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Speaker 3: the team I think is competitive. But I think twenty

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Speaker 3: four is a good number. I think if I had

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Speaker 3: to get guess a win prediction total, what twenty five,

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Speaker 3: twenty six, twenty four. I think that's kind of a

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Speaker 3: perfect number. I can't with conviction. I don't think I

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Speaker 3: can say let's go over or let's go under. I

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Speaker 3: think it's kind of the perfect number for the current

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Speaker 3: team the way it's instructed. And I think whenever the

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Speaker 3: youth comes up, they can go through some struggles or

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Speaker 3: you got to allow them time to develop, or they

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Speaker 3: can come out they could be surging and you don't

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Speaker 3: have enough. There's not enough games to be played for

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Speaker 3: pitchers to actually figure out these batters, and so the

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Speaker 3: young guys all throughout the league can actually surge through

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Speaker 3: it because there's not enough time to pick apart. There's

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Speaker 3: not enough a bass pick apart with these players and

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Speaker 3: find the weaknesses.

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Speaker 1: Just in general. Obviously, the entire season out look, the

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Speaker 1: season format has totally changed because of the delay and

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Speaker 1: then of the precautions being taken due to COVID, So

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Speaker 1: it's changed a lot of the fundamental rules of the game.

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Speaker 1: It's obviously changed the length of the season, and it

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Speaker 1: totally warped the entire schedule too. The Marlins face now

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Speaker 1: it's two thirds of their games inside the division, the

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Speaker 1: rest of their games against the AL East. Just looking

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Speaker 1: at some general analysis. When it comes to that, the

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Speaker 1: thinking has been the Marlins got screwed in this situation

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Speaker 1: that they're facing one of the toughest schedules in the league.

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Speaker 1: It's not the toughest schedule, but when you put everything

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Speaker 1: together with the shortened season, the new schedule, some of

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Speaker 1: the new rules, the addition of the DH. Are you

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Speaker 1: generally more optimistic about the team's win total and the

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Speaker 1: pace that they're on for this year compared to what

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Speaker 1: it would have been during a regular season, because I

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Speaker 1: know you put a lot of thought into analyzing the

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Speaker 1: team back in the spring, back in entering the regular season. Overall,

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Speaker 1: do you think the team is helped or hurt by

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Speaker 1: the shortened season compared to the average Major League tam.

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Speaker 2: And this is really tough.

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Speaker 3: I'm gonna say, hmm, it's it's tough to say because

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Speaker 3: of it's only sixty games.

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Speaker 2: So but here's my thing.

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Speaker 3: This team can get hot real quick, and I think

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Speaker 3: the score whole bunch of uns and so with it.

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Speaker 3: I think the offense can get hot. I don't think

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Speaker 3: the pitching can, even though Caleb Smith actually last year

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Speaker 3: in sixty games he was in the top five VR.

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Speaker 2: I just I think it. I think it.

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Speaker 3: I think it hurts the team because actually, I'm gonna

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Speaker 3: take that back. It's hard to stay with thank conviction

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Speaker 3: because it's so difficult. Yeah, because of the team, there's a.

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Speaker 1: Lot of factors that play here. It's like you could

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Speaker 1: really pick them apart one by one by one, because

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Speaker 1: I mean we started with the basics. The shortened season

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Speaker 1: means that the upside is high, right, because anything can happen.

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Speaker 1: Things are so unpredictable. You know that if other teams

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Speaker 1: lose key players at inopportune times, then that brings them

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Speaker 1: back to the pack a lot and keeps them Marlins alive.

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Speaker 1: So the number of games is beneficial to them, right,

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Speaker 1: the fact that it's just there's less time for things

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Speaker 1: to go wrong for them. There's less time for them

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Speaker 1: to punt on the season and trade away veterans. I mean,

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Speaker 1: those can still happen too, but just the shortened season

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Speaker 1: probably helps them, right, It's it's just all the other

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Speaker 1: factors that really make it complicated.

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Speaker 3: Absolutely, there is no way the Marlins make the playoffs

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Speaker 3: on a hundred six two games, Like, I'm pretty sure

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Speaker 3: we can both say that with pretty good conviction. The Marlins,

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Speaker 3: We're not gonna make the playoffs one hundred six two games,

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Speaker 3: and whenever you shorten it down to sixty, you can

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Speaker 3: most definitely make the playoffs. The best teams will not

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Speaker 3: make the playoffs this year because you are one injury away,

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Speaker 3: one cold streak away from just being out of the playoffs.

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Speaker 3: That's just how it's gonna be this year. So to say, yeah,

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Speaker 3: it has to be beneficial to them just the short games.

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Speaker 3: If the team gets hot, hey you can make the playoffs.

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Speaker 3: Will you make damage in the playoffs, that's a whole different story.

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Speaker 3: But the team can get hot, the team can make it.

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Speaker 3: And I think the team should be optimistic and I

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Speaker 3: think from the players I've talked to, they're very optimistic

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Speaker 3: about believing, Hey, why not us?

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Speaker 2: The message to our guys is that, you know, why

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Speaker 2: not us?

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Speaker 1: Why not us? Why not us? The rallying cry that

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Speaker 1: started with Mike Hill and then a lot of players

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Speaker 1: have picked up on that. Even though it's a little

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Speaker 1: bit corny, it's a simple direct message, Yeah, why not us?

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Speaker 1: And you see like little advantages here because I mean,

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Speaker 1: at this stage of the spring, the roster hasn't necessarily

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Speaker 1: been like overwhelmed with COVID cases. They're going to enter

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Speaker 1: opening day with most of their preferred starting lineup intact

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Speaker 1: and all their starting rotation intact. And so that's just

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Speaker 1: a little that's just a stroke of good luck. That's

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Speaker 1: not something that we can really control whatsoever or anticipate whatsoever.

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Speaker 1: But I mean, so farther off to the right foot

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Speaker 1: in that situation. He also brought to my attention, I mean,

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Speaker 1: the odds that they face in terms of making the

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Speaker 1: playoffs at plus eight hundred, winning the nationally pennant at

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Speaker 1: two hundred to one, the World Series at three hundred

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Speaker 1: to one, is it even worth putting like a couple

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Speaker 1: of bucks on any of those, just considering how extreme

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Speaker 1: the odds are and how.

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Speaker 3: Unpredictable that you're just going to be if you're gonna

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Speaker 3: make a smart bet and you really just want to

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Speaker 3: bet on the Marlins like everyone, I mean, people Leicester

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Speaker 3: City whenever they want Premier League five thousand and one,

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Speaker 3: So I mean, anything can happen, but their odds are

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Speaker 3: extremely unlikely. Maybe you can put two dollars on it

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Speaker 3: and just say, hey, just in case, maybe I'll walk

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Speaker 3: away with six hundred. But if you're gonna make any

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Speaker 3: bet at all, it's going to be to make the playoffs.

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Speaker 2: Eight hundred. That's really the best bet you can probably make.

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Speaker 3: Just as what we talked about earlier, anything can happen

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Speaker 3: this year, So I don't think they will make the playoffs.

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Speaker 3: But I think eight to one if you just want

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Speaker 3: to put a couple down on there because it's your team,

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Speaker 3: you want to believe in the team, I definitely think

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Speaker 3: there's not value there. I don't think there's value at

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Speaker 3: eight to one to make the playoffs for the Marlins.

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Speaker 3: I'd say if if it was sixteen to one, i'd

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Speaker 3: bet it myself, But being eight to one, I just

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Speaker 3: don't think there's enough value, And I don't think they

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Speaker 3: make the playoffs enough times. If you go through the

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Speaker 3: league one hundred times, how many times the Marlins actually

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Speaker 3: make the playoffs? What maybe five, six seven? So I

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Speaker 3: don't think the values there at eight to one. I

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Speaker 3: definitely don't think the value there is there at then

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Speaker 3: I'll pen it at two hundred to one. I just

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Speaker 3: think the NL is pretty competitive. But hey, like I said,

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Speaker 3: if you're if you really just want to put a

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Speaker 3: couple of dollars on a team, you won't put five

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Speaker 3: bucks on it, then hey, maybe you'll get lucky, but

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Speaker 3: probably not. But if you really just want to have

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Speaker 3: fun with the team, you just bet to make the

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Speaker 3: playoffs at plus eight hundred plus eight hundred and eight

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Speaker 3: to one, because the node to not make the playoffs

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Speaker 3: is you got a bet twelve hundred to win one hundred.

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Speaker 2: So if you're just gonna have a little bit of

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Speaker 2: fun with it, I'd say to make the playoffs plus

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Speaker 2: eight hundred.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and once they make it in I suppose anything

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Speaker 1: can happen. It is the same playoff format that baseball

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Speaker 1: is used for the last eight years, where probously five

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Speaker 1: teams make it in from the National League ten teams overall.

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Speaker 1: And I guess if yeah, really putting any money on

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Speaker 1: that would be just trying to anticipate something really goofy happening.

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Speaker 1: Like one of the scenarios that obviously was talked about

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Speaker 1: during this entire pandemic was what if Baseball just plays

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Speaker 1: most of their games at neutral sits in places that

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Speaker 1: in preferred places, And Marlins Park was brought up as

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Speaker 1: like one of those neutral sites that everybody would want

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Speaker 1: to go late in the season, you know, to guard

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Speaker 1: against cold or weather. And if Marlin's for whatever reason,

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Speaker 1: we're able to do that like in the luxury of

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Speaker 1: their home city and sleep in their own beds while

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Speaker 1: they're going through like the most important games of the year,

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Speaker 1: that'd be working in their favor. I guess even if

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Speaker 1: there's no fans intendants. But I agree, I agree, it's

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Speaker 1: it's so such an extreme long shot that, yeah, you

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Speaker 1: don't want to like actually expect that to happen. Otherwise

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Speaker 1: you're kind of preparing yourself for disappointment with some of

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Speaker 1: the younger players, though. I mean, that's something that people

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Speaker 1: are heavily focused on. I remember on fish Stripes we

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Speaker 1: put up a poll way back at like the start

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Speaker 1: of spring training, as they were winning games in spring training,

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Speaker 1: but just checking in on whether fans we're prioritizing the

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Speaker 1: future of the team or the president of the team

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Speaker 1: considering where they are in this rebuild. And what we

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Speaker 1: found is, even at this point, even with the momentum

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Speaker 1: that we've seen with the team, more people are focused

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Speaker 1: on the future and on the prospects than they are

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Speaker 1: on the current major leaguers on the team, which would

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Speaker 1: understandably mean that during the short and season, people are

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Speaker 1: going to be paying close attention to which of those

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Speaker 1: top prospects finally break through to the majors at obviously

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Speaker 1: being in a position where these guys have unlimited potential,

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Speaker 1: unlimited possibilities when you're like breaking through to the majors

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Speaker 1: for the first time and you did over some National

356
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Speaker 1: League Rookie of the Year odds with these guys, which

357
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Speaker 1: Marlins do you think have any sort of chance you

358
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Speaker 1: think to I mean, just generally we could talk about

359
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Speaker 1: guys that could contribute right away, but for the betting purposes,

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Speaker 1: which of these guys has any sort of path you

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Speaker 1: think to winning National League Rookie of the year and

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Speaker 1: getting that kind of respect and producing right away.

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Speaker 3: So for me, so for me personally, the six though

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Speaker 3: Sanchez at twenty to one, I don't know if he

365
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Speaker 3: makes enough starts to do the damage. And then you

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Speaker 3: have Hayzu Sanchez at forty five to one. They're the

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Speaker 3: only two mallins that I can actually find a listed

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Speaker 3: anywhere for the n L Rookie of the Year, don't

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Speaker 3: I don't know how many bats Hazus Sanchez gets. I

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Speaker 3: don't know if he can actually cover the time. I

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Speaker 3: actually think the big thing is for the NL Rookie

372
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Speaker 3: of the Year is who's gonna have the most starts,

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Speaker 3: because you're gonna be competing against someone like Carter Kiebom

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Speaker 3: who's going to probably be the start, and third baseman,

375
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Speaker 3: guy like Dustin May who's who could win the fifth spot.

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00:18:33,200 --> 00:18:35,479
Speaker 3: And for the Dodgers McKenzie Gore who could break out,

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Speaker 3: Dylan Carlson and Gavin Luck. So to me, they know,

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Speaker 3: Rookie of the Year is gonna be really hard if

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Speaker 3: you're not starting right away. And to me, six Tho Sanchez,

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Speaker 3: I don't think it's gonna start right away. Hayzesu Sanchez

381
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Speaker 3: as well. I don't think he's gonna start right away.

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Speaker 3: To me, actually, if I can find it, I want

383
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Speaker 3: Luin Diaz. That's the guy to me that I think

384
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Speaker 3: he can just do enough damage and if he can

385
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Speaker 3: start right away, that's a guy that can actually win

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Speaker 3: in our Rookie of the Year.

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Speaker 1: We know that the Marlins, for at least themselves their

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Speaker 1: own internal valuation of Laywin is that he's special, that

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00:19:06,560 --> 00:19:09,119
Speaker 1: he could be the best hitter in the organization, and

390
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Speaker 1: that he could be pretty close to major league ready. Yeah,

391
00:19:12,440 --> 00:19:14,840
Speaker 1: we had more my writers like put together an opening

392
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Speaker 1: day roster projection fresh on today on Wednesday as we're

393
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Speaker 1: recording this, and he thinks that Laywan can sneak on

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Speaker 1: to the opening day roster just because of some of

395
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Speaker 1: the openings currently. Matt Joyce is a guy that is

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Speaker 1: expected to not be healthy for opening day. That would

397
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Speaker 1: create a spot, and the Marlins in general just hoping

398
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Speaker 1: to add some left handed pop. You know, we mentioned

399
00:19:36,280 --> 00:19:39,440
Speaker 1: Corey Dickerson and how much he can contribute, but besides him,

400
00:19:39,560 --> 00:19:41,560
Speaker 1: they don't have a ton of power threats from the

401
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Speaker 1: left handed side, and so Laywin is a guy that

402
00:19:44,640 --> 00:19:48,000
Speaker 1: could come up and like immediately help them in that department.

403
00:19:48,520 --> 00:19:51,199
Speaker 1: It's yeah, it's going to be just a question of

404
00:19:51,240 --> 00:19:53,919
Speaker 1: how early they arrived, because it says a shortened season,

405
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Speaker 1: like what you see in past Rookie of the Year races,

406
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Speaker 1: it's pretty common for guys to win the award, even

407
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Speaker 1: if they're not on the roster to start the year,

408
00:20:02,560 --> 00:20:04,399
Speaker 1: like we see them emerge in the middle of the

409
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Speaker 1: season and even towards the end of it. We saw

410
00:20:06,760 --> 00:20:09,800
Speaker 1: with Jacob de Gram, we saw it with Gary Sanchez,

411
00:20:10,160 --> 00:20:12,720
Speaker 1: with Jordann Alarez. It's almost every year in one of

412
00:20:12,760 --> 00:20:15,520
Speaker 1: the leagues really where a guy emerges in the middle

413
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Speaker 1: of the year and has that and is able to

414
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Speaker 1: produce and get the attention he needs to win the award.

415
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Speaker 1: But in this season, yeah, every single game is precious.

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Speaker 1: It's almost like a process of elimination where you can

417
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Speaker 1: almost eliminate guys that aren't on the roster immediately because

418
00:20:31,240 --> 00:20:34,240
Speaker 1: they just don't have the time later on to make

419
00:20:34,359 --> 00:20:37,160
Speaker 1: up for any miss time at the major league level.

420
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Speaker 1: And that's going to be interesting to say how they

421
00:20:39,840 --> 00:20:43,240
Speaker 1: balance that. It's an unprecedented situation with how they go

422
00:20:43,280 --> 00:20:49,840
Speaker 1: about that. I mean, aside from the Marlins, I mean,

423
00:20:49,840 --> 00:20:51,479
Speaker 1: maybe there are some other things in your minds when

424
00:20:51,520 --> 00:20:54,320
Speaker 1: it comes to them that are worth paying attention to.

425
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Speaker 1: But I know you follow all the other league itself

426
00:20:58,000 --> 00:21:01,639
Speaker 1: to some degree in general. Is there any particular props

427
00:21:01,640 --> 00:21:04,120
Speaker 1: when it comes to non Marlins players or other teams

428
00:21:04,400 --> 00:21:08,680
Speaker 1: that you think are being undervalued or overvalued? Any any

429
00:21:08,920 --> 00:21:12,760
Speaker 1: bets that are unrelated to the team that are worth

430
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Speaker 1: Marlins fans actually investing in, even just trusting you to

431
00:21:17,359 --> 00:21:19,240
Speaker 1: have the best info on those other teams.

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Speaker 2: Well, So, for me.

433
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Speaker 3: Personally, one bet that I think is a really good

434
00:21:24,440 --> 00:21:27,560
Speaker 3: bet is the twenty twenty National League MVP. I really

435
00:21:27,640 --> 00:21:30,920
Speaker 3: like Cody Bellinger at twelve to one personally because you've

436
00:21:30,960 --> 00:21:32,640
Speaker 3: seen what he does in sixty games. I put out

437
00:21:32,640 --> 00:21:34,840
Speaker 3: a tweet a while back where he hit four hundred

438
00:21:35,000 --> 00:21:38,560
Speaker 3: through sixty games of just last year, so just having

439
00:21:38,640 --> 00:21:40,680
Speaker 3: him get better now, I will say this, Cody Bellinger

440
00:21:40,800 --> 00:21:43,080
Speaker 3: this offseason did tinker his swing a little bit right

441
00:21:43,080 --> 00:21:43,879
Speaker 3: after win the MVP.

442
00:21:44,040 --> 00:21:46,119
Speaker 2: So will that have any ramifications on it?

443
00:21:46,440 --> 00:21:49,440
Speaker 3: I'm not entirely for certain, but I think I'm pretty

444
00:21:49,440 --> 00:21:51,680
Speaker 3: comfortable with betting Cody Melager at twelve to one. I

445
00:21:51,680 --> 00:21:53,520
Speaker 3: think the value he's there with a Kunya, he's at

446
00:21:53,560 --> 00:21:55,399
Speaker 3: six to one, yellok at seven to one. Why is

447
00:21:55,440 --> 00:21:58,520
Speaker 3: Cody Boneser twelve to one while Mookie Bets is actually

448
00:21:58,520 --> 00:22:00,720
Speaker 3: three to one. So I'll go ahead code Belinger there,

449
00:22:00,760 --> 00:22:02,119
Speaker 3: and he's already won the MVP and I know he

450
00:22:02,160 --> 00:22:04,119
Speaker 3: could do it. The other thing is the twenty twenty

451
00:22:04,200 --> 00:22:06,920
Speaker 3: National League Sy Young. So Jacob mcgrom, if you guys,

452
00:22:07,200 --> 00:22:08,640
Speaker 3: you saw where he went out with.

453
00:22:08,560 --> 00:22:11,000
Speaker 2: The back injury, So that's a little bit open up now.

454
00:22:12,000 --> 00:22:14,520
Speaker 3: So is it possible for someone to get hot and

455
00:22:15,119 --> 00:22:16,760
Speaker 3: max Ers are five to one, I kind of like

456
00:22:16,800 --> 00:22:19,879
Speaker 3: a lot. I think he's definitely got a potential. I mean,

457
00:22:19,880 --> 00:22:21,840
Speaker 3: he's obviously one of the best pictures, he's a future

458
00:22:21,880 --> 00:22:24,360
Speaker 3: Hall of Famer. But one sneaky bet that I love

459
00:22:24,400 --> 00:22:26,920
Speaker 3: the bet I've bet way too much money on it

460
00:22:26,960 --> 00:22:28,440
Speaker 3: is Josh Hater at fifty.

461
00:22:28,119 --> 00:22:29,760
Speaker 2: To one to win the National League.

462
00:22:29,760 --> 00:22:36,040
Speaker 1: Young obviously a reliever, Josh Hater, the Brewers reliever, sometimes

463
00:22:36,080 --> 00:22:39,639
Speaker 1: a closer. What's the path for him to win the

464
00:22:39,640 --> 00:22:42,440
Speaker 1: SIM because it's been a while since any reliever got

465
00:22:42,480 --> 00:22:46,120
Speaker 1: that award? So what makes him like a better odds

466
00:22:46,160 --> 00:22:48,120
Speaker 1: than usual to get it done this year? Well?

467
00:22:48,119 --> 00:22:48,720
Speaker 2: Not better odds.

468
00:22:48,800 --> 00:22:51,239
Speaker 1: What makes him a sneaky pick and someone that can

469
00:22:51,320 --> 00:22:53,520
Speaker 1: actually do it. It's working in his favor this year,

470
00:22:53,760 --> 00:22:56,120
Speaker 1: that which probably wasn't under normal circumstances.

471
00:22:56,320 --> 00:22:58,960
Speaker 3: Well, Josh Hater, to me, what's the maxim amount is

472
00:22:59,040 --> 00:23:02,000
Speaker 3: someone like max ER's ever throw like seventy So I

473
00:23:02,040 --> 00:23:04,960
Speaker 3: just need thirty appearances from Josh Hader and then I

474
00:23:05,080 --> 00:23:06,720
Speaker 3: just need him to go two innings apiece. That puts

475
00:23:06,760 --> 00:23:08,439
Speaker 3: me about sixty innings. That's a least gonna make him

476
00:23:08,440 --> 00:23:10,919
Speaker 3: incompetitive with the other players, and then you can just

477
00:23:11,000 --> 00:23:13,080
Speaker 3: rack up the saves. And also, not seeing Josh Hater

478
00:23:13,200 --> 00:23:15,680
Speaker 3: a lot, you're just gonna be able to rack up

479
00:23:15,880 --> 00:23:18,080
Speaker 3: like they're not to play. The batters aren't be able

480
00:23:18,080 --> 00:23:19,440
Speaker 3: to catch up to him, so they're just gonna see

481
00:23:19,480 --> 00:23:21,119
Speaker 3: him and then boom, he's gone. So he can actually

482
00:23:21,119 --> 00:23:23,240
Speaker 3: I think he could post under one era. I think

483
00:23:23,240 --> 00:23:26,000
Speaker 3: it's a long shot, but I think the roadmap is

484
00:23:26,040 --> 00:23:28,640
Speaker 3: there because the pictures can't just be like I threw

485
00:23:28,680 --> 00:23:30,400
Speaker 3: two hundred innings and then you can look at.

486
00:23:30,320 --> 00:23:32,680
Speaker 2: Josh Hater, Oh, he only threw seventy five this time.

487
00:23:32,720 --> 00:23:35,679
Speaker 3: Josh Hayter, if it's possible where he can actually be

488
00:23:35,720 --> 00:23:39,400
Speaker 3: there quite close to all the starting pitchers if they

489
00:23:39,920 --> 00:23:42,800
Speaker 3: if Craig Council uses him enough to have the potential,

490
00:23:42,840 --> 00:23:44,439
Speaker 3: and I think he can do it. I mean, you're

491
00:23:44,480 --> 00:23:47,119
Speaker 3: Trevor Bauer's thirteen to one, so you're telling me Trevor

492
00:23:47,119 --> 00:23:48,440
Speaker 3: Bower's more likely to win Josh Hater.

493
00:23:48,680 --> 00:23:49,199
Speaker 2: I don't think so.

494
00:23:49,280 --> 00:23:51,119
Speaker 3: I think Josh Hader fifty to one. I think it's

495
00:23:51,160 --> 00:23:53,840
Speaker 3: a wild bit, but I also think it's a wild season.

496
00:23:53,880 --> 00:23:55,760
Speaker 3: And I can see the roadmap for Hater to do it.

497
00:23:55,840 --> 00:23:58,239
Speaker 3: I mean, you got to think about he gets strikeouts.

498
00:23:58,040 --> 00:24:00,320
Speaker 2: He just does what he does. I mean, everyone loves Josh.

499
00:24:00,680 --> 00:24:03,920
Speaker 2: He's a great reliever, so why couldn't he do that well?

500
00:24:04,240 --> 00:24:06,480
Speaker 1: I mean, on that subject, I'm glad he brought up

501
00:24:06,520 --> 00:24:10,400
Speaker 1: Bower because there was that mentioned today by his manager

502
00:24:10,800 --> 00:24:14,680
Speaker 1: on the Reds about the possibility that Bower works on

503
00:24:14,840 --> 00:24:17,800
Speaker 1: short rest for some or all of the season, that

504
00:24:18,080 --> 00:24:20,679
Speaker 1: even though the Reds have a pretty good rotation and

505
00:24:20,760 --> 00:24:23,480
Speaker 1: Bower's a guy that has always been very confident, you

506
00:24:23,480 --> 00:24:26,040
Speaker 1: could say, kind of arrogant about his conditioning and his

507
00:24:26,160 --> 00:24:30,280
Speaker 1: arm strength, and they mentioned that there. They've least mentioned

508
00:24:30,280 --> 00:24:32,280
Speaker 1: the idea of having him pitch on short rest at

509
00:24:32,320 --> 00:24:34,560
Speaker 1: some point during the year, considering how short the season

510
00:24:34,640 --> 00:24:38,800
Speaker 1: is and how much how important he is. There's chances

511
00:24:39,119 --> 00:24:41,440
Speaker 1: so that'd be something that throws a pretty big curveball

512
00:24:41,480 --> 00:24:43,240
Speaker 1: in the whole scenario, Right, if you have one guy

513
00:24:43,280 --> 00:24:47,280
Speaker 1: that's pitching more games than anybody else because his manager

514
00:24:47,359 --> 00:24:49,440
Speaker 1: is willing to take that risk and he's willing to

515
00:24:49,480 --> 00:24:52,679
Speaker 1: take it, I would say that's unlikely to happen. But

516
00:24:53,000 --> 00:24:55,879
Speaker 1: I just it's cool that it's even a scenario in

517
00:24:55,920 --> 00:24:58,199
Speaker 1: this situation because these guys are preparing for such a

518
00:24:58,200 --> 00:25:02,239
Speaker 1: short season that those type of wild strategies are at

519
00:25:02,320 --> 00:25:05,399
Speaker 1: least on the table a little bit. You mentioned it

520
00:25:05,440 --> 00:25:07,960
Speaker 1: really quickly with the Bellinger about the stretch he had

521
00:25:08,000 --> 00:25:11,520
Speaker 1: where he hit four hundred, and you mentioned this also

522
00:25:11,680 --> 00:25:13,520
Speaker 1: off the air when we were talking before the pod.

523
00:25:14,040 --> 00:25:17,440
Speaker 1: Is he the guy that you think has a little

524
00:25:17,520 --> 00:25:20,639
Speaker 1: bit of a chance that there is a version of

525
00:25:20,680 --> 00:25:23,040
Speaker 1: this season where he actually hits four hundred for the

526
00:25:23,119 --> 00:25:26,600
Speaker 1: season and does something that nobody has done in like generations.

527
00:25:28,760 --> 00:25:30,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, I do, just because you've already seen him do

528
00:25:30,720 --> 00:25:32,800
Speaker 3: it before. I think Christian Yellick can have that kind

529
00:25:32,840 --> 00:25:35,879
Speaker 3: of approach as well. I think Ron Lacuna has the possibility,

530
00:25:35,920 --> 00:25:37,119
Speaker 3: but I don't see him getting over it.

531
00:25:37,160 --> 00:25:38,080
Speaker 2: I think Cody Balinger.

532
00:25:38,119 --> 00:25:39,760
Speaker 3: I mean, the only reason why I say it is

533
00:25:39,800 --> 00:25:42,560
Speaker 3: because he's done it, so like, I don't think it's

534
00:25:43,200 --> 00:25:45,920
Speaker 3: I think it's highly unlikely. But if you're just gonna

535
00:25:45,960 --> 00:25:47,760
Speaker 3: pick someone to pick it, I'm gonna go with Cody

536
00:25:47,760 --> 00:25:51,000
Speaker 3: Bellinger because he did it. So, I mean there's hot streaks,

537
00:25:51,000 --> 00:25:53,520
Speaker 3: and then there's a guy who's already He just did

538
00:25:53,520 --> 00:25:55,200
Speaker 3: it last year, so I'm gonna believe in the guy.

539
00:25:55,840 --> 00:25:57,720
Speaker 3: I don't think it's likely, though, I bet if I

540
00:25:57,720 --> 00:25:59,760
Speaker 3: had to pick someone to do it, I'd say Cody Balinger.

541
00:26:00,840 --> 00:26:03,080
Speaker 1: It checks a lot of the boxes that you look for.

542
00:26:03,160 --> 00:26:05,440
Speaker 1: I guess with a four hundred candidate, he does have

543
00:26:05,840 --> 00:26:09,320
Speaker 1: a pretty stacked lineup around him with the Dodgers and

544
00:26:09,880 --> 00:26:12,480
Speaker 1: obviously the recent track record having that stretch just in

545
00:26:12,520 --> 00:26:16,200
Speaker 1: twenty nineteen, it's it'll be fun. I mean, I'm a skeptic.

546
00:26:16,240 --> 00:26:18,199
Speaker 1: Maybe I'm just no fun. I'm just the guy that

547
00:26:18,440 --> 00:26:20,200
Speaker 1: when I see the way that the game is going

548
00:26:20,440 --> 00:26:23,520
Speaker 1: and how batting averages in general have been dipping a

549
00:26:23,520 --> 00:26:26,080
Speaker 1: lot the last few years because of the way the

550
00:26:26,080 --> 00:26:28,520
Speaker 1: game is played, and more priority on hitting the ball

551
00:26:28,560 --> 00:26:32,080
Speaker 1: over the fence and naturally the improvement of other pitchers,

552
00:26:32,119 --> 00:26:33,960
Speaker 1: and how hard it is just to get your bat

553
00:26:34,000 --> 00:26:35,879
Speaker 1: on the ball in the first place, being hit her

554
00:26:35,920 --> 00:26:38,400
Speaker 1: in today's game, that, yeah, I have a hard time

555
00:26:38,560 --> 00:26:41,560
Speaker 1: imagining it. But that's one of those mythical numbers. Like

556
00:26:41,680 --> 00:26:45,840
Speaker 1: in baseball, it's a lot of those numbers that used

557
00:26:45,840 --> 00:26:51,639
Speaker 1: to be so worshiped and so precious to people that

558
00:26:51,680 --> 00:26:53,240
Speaker 1: were keeping the history of the game. A lot of

559
00:26:53,240 --> 00:26:55,640
Speaker 1: those numbers aren't remembered the same way these days, whether

560
00:26:55,680 --> 00:26:58,000
Speaker 1: it's because of the steroid era or just a new

561
00:26:58,040 --> 00:27:00,359
Speaker 1: way that we appreciate baseball. That like, some of those

562
00:27:00,440 --> 00:27:02,960
Speaker 1: numbers don't have the same significance they used to. But

563
00:27:03,280 --> 00:27:06,040
Speaker 1: hitting four hundred in a season is like as as

564
00:27:06,160 --> 00:27:09,920
Speaker 1: amazing as it gets and as unbelievable as it gets.

565
00:27:10,040 --> 00:27:13,879
Speaker 1: So that would, yeah, that'd be pretty wild. But it

566
00:27:13,880 --> 00:27:16,640
Speaker 1: would also be something that even if you don't put

567
00:27:16,680 --> 00:27:19,400
Speaker 1: like a physical asterisk next to it, I think it's

568
00:27:19,400 --> 00:27:22,399
Speaker 1: gonna be remembered differently. And that's I guess that's something

569
00:27:22,400 --> 00:27:25,080
Speaker 1: that this is kind of off the subject, but when

570
00:27:25,119 --> 00:27:28,119
Speaker 1: we think about everything that happens during this regular season,

571
00:27:28,760 --> 00:27:31,400
Speaker 1: even though in this moment, everybody's on what we hope

572
00:27:31,480 --> 00:27:33,600
Speaker 1: is a level playing field when it comes to actually

573
00:27:33,800 --> 00:27:37,399
Speaker 1: trying to make these props and place these wagers as

574
00:27:37,440 --> 00:27:39,639
Speaker 1: best we can. But like, when we look back at

575
00:27:39,640 --> 00:27:43,200
Speaker 1: all these regular season numbers historically, it's gonna be hard

576
00:27:43,240 --> 00:27:45,760
Speaker 1: for to take any of the twenty twenty season stats

577
00:27:45,760 --> 00:27:48,600
Speaker 1: all that seriously, right, because it's just such a totally

578
00:27:48,680 --> 00:27:50,840
Speaker 1: different game than what we're used to, and because the

579
00:27:50,880 --> 00:27:54,399
Speaker 1: sample size it's so small, it's a Yeah, I just

580
00:27:54,800 --> 00:27:57,800
Speaker 1: I just don't think it's gonna be remembered with the

581
00:27:57,840 --> 00:28:02,000
Speaker 1: same type of respect that normal regular season stats will be, Right.

582
00:28:02,960 --> 00:28:05,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't think anyone's personally really gonna care about

583
00:28:05,400 --> 00:28:08,280
Speaker 3: the end of season numbers personally to say that, because

584
00:28:08,400 --> 00:28:10,080
Speaker 3: I just don't think they're just really gonna care, Because

585
00:28:10,119 --> 00:28:11,639
Speaker 3: I mean, you can think about it. If Max Shurzy

586
00:28:11,640 --> 00:28:13,239
Speaker 3: goes out there and gets railed one time he has

587
00:28:13,280 --> 00:28:15,320
Speaker 3: an er for the season of eight, you just go

588
00:28:15,440 --> 00:28:16,919
Speaker 3: look at that Blimis on his career where you just

589
00:28:16,920 --> 00:28:20,080
Speaker 3: go through there, it's like three two two two two eight,

590
00:28:20,440 --> 00:28:22,320
Speaker 3: and it's like, no one's really gonna care that much.

591
00:28:22,320 --> 00:28:23,639
Speaker 2: But I think about the end season numbers.

592
00:28:23,640 --> 00:28:24,800
Speaker 3: But I just think a lot of people are gonna

593
00:28:24,800 --> 00:28:26,960
Speaker 3: pay attention to the adjustments as the players make in

594
00:28:27,119 --> 00:28:30,280
Speaker 3: season just to look at it for next year possibility.

595
00:28:30,600 --> 00:28:33,119
Speaker 3: I don't think you can see anything this season and

596
00:28:33,240 --> 00:28:35,840
Speaker 3: just be like, oh, wow, he hit four hundred. Okay,

597
00:28:35,920 --> 00:28:37,960
Speaker 3: I mean that's great, but he only plays sixty games,

598
00:28:38,040 --> 00:28:39,320
Speaker 3: so it's not like he even did it for a

599
00:28:39,320 --> 00:28:41,920
Speaker 3: full season. There's always gonna be the asterisks there. You're

600
00:28:41,960 --> 00:28:43,560
Speaker 3: just it's just not gonna be one of those things.

601
00:28:43,600 --> 00:28:45,160
Speaker 3: Now if someone comes out there and hits, you know,

602
00:28:45,200 --> 00:28:47,720
Speaker 3: fifty home runs in sixty games, and hey, that's a

603
00:28:47,760 --> 00:28:49,600
Speaker 3: little that's a little bit different of a story. But

604
00:28:49,640 --> 00:28:52,640
Speaker 3: I just think like the end of the batting average

605
00:28:52,640 --> 00:28:55,400
Speaker 3: in the R I think, and the whip, I think

606
00:28:55,480 --> 00:28:58,360
Speaker 3: those numbers can go so low just because the sample

607
00:28:58,400 --> 00:29:01,000
Speaker 3: size can be so small. I just don't think anyone

608
00:29:01,000 --> 00:29:03,200
Speaker 3: can really take it. I don't think anyone could really

609
00:29:03,200 --> 00:29:05,960
Speaker 3: take it seriously other than just actually watching the pitchers

610
00:29:05,960 --> 00:29:08,720
Speaker 3: and seeing their adjustments and seeing how they improved from

611
00:29:08,720 --> 00:29:10,719
Speaker 3: the year to year. I think that's the only thing

612
00:29:10,760 --> 00:29:12,120
Speaker 3: that you can actually look at with the pitcher and

613
00:29:12,160 --> 00:29:13,840
Speaker 3: be like, oh, he was the lead because he got

614
00:29:13,880 --> 00:29:17,000
Speaker 3: this new sinker pitch and it just dominated everyone. But yeah,

615
00:29:17,000 --> 00:29:19,400
Speaker 3: he had a one r but that you know, those

616
00:29:19,400 --> 00:29:20,400
Speaker 3: doesn't really matter.

617
00:29:21,120 --> 00:29:25,560
Speaker 1: Right right, Yeah, I guess one thing I'm really looking

618
00:29:25,560 --> 00:29:28,720
Speaker 1: forward to is individual Marlins games and the lines that

619
00:29:28,760 --> 00:29:31,880
Speaker 1: are set for those games, because the last couple of years,

620
00:29:31,920 --> 00:29:36,240
Speaker 1: it's been incredible how ninety five percent of the time,

621
00:29:36,280 --> 00:29:39,720
Speaker 1: maybe higher, they're underdogs even if they're at home for

622
00:29:39,880 --> 00:29:44,880
Speaker 1: individual games, that their talent level was like so far

623
00:29:44,920 --> 00:29:47,600
Speaker 1: below most of their opponents on any given night. The

624
00:29:47,680 --> 00:29:50,720
Speaker 1: last these first two years of the rebuild, that they

625
00:29:50,720 --> 00:29:54,200
Speaker 1: were underdogs consistently, and that was a trend that I

626
00:29:54,240 --> 00:29:56,640
Speaker 1: was following a lot. Last year there was like a

627
00:29:56,640 --> 00:29:59,920
Speaker 1: little silly celebration when they were actually the favorite for once,

628
00:30:00,440 --> 00:30:03,360
Speaker 1: like playing another rebuilding team at home towards the middle

629
00:30:03,360 --> 00:30:06,960
Speaker 1: of the year. But considering like all the other other

630
00:30:07,040 --> 00:30:10,880
Speaker 1: talent that they're going up against this year, that's one

631
00:30:10,880 --> 00:30:12,959
Speaker 1: of the oddities I'm looking forward to this year because

632
00:30:13,240 --> 00:30:15,720
Speaker 1: first week of the season they host the Baltimore Orioles

633
00:30:15,720 --> 00:30:18,040
Speaker 1: at home. I imagine they're going to be favored for

634
00:30:18,080 --> 00:30:21,280
Speaker 1: those games, the Orioles being a team that's probably even

635
00:30:21,320 --> 00:30:24,880
Speaker 1: deeper in their rebuild at the present moment and has

636
00:30:24,960 --> 00:30:27,959
Speaker 1: their own concerns about who's actually ready to contribute at

637
00:30:27,960 --> 00:30:30,600
Speaker 1: the major league level. So that's gonna be a fun

638
00:30:30,800 --> 00:30:34,120
Speaker 1: different story actually being a favorite team for once even.

639
00:30:34,400 --> 00:30:38,000
Speaker 1: And one thing we tried out last year on Fishtrips

640
00:30:38,040 --> 00:30:40,320
Speaker 1: is we had a daily prop bets contest, something that

641
00:30:40,720 --> 00:30:42,960
Speaker 1: no real money anybody was putting up, just the thing

642
00:30:42,960 --> 00:30:45,479
Speaker 1: for fun that we got like some good engagement with

643
00:30:45,680 --> 00:30:48,200
Speaker 1: was people trying to pick out how many strikeouts the

644
00:30:48,200 --> 00:30:51,680
Speaker 1: starring pitcher would get each day, how long the game

645
00:30:51,760 --> 00:30:54,400
Speaker 1: was going to last, the total run score, but also

646
00:30:54,520 --> 00:30:56,960
Speaker 1: like a lot of really goofy props that we set

647
00:30:57,040 --> 00:30:58,520
Speaker 1: up on a daily basis. So I think we're going

648
00:30:58,600 --> 00:31:02,840
Speaker 1: to bring that back coming season as well. Any final

649
00:31:02,880 --> 00:31:05,480
Speaker 1: thoughts about the way that this is shaping up, whether

650
00:31:05,520 --> 00:31:08,680
Speaker 1: it's for the Marlins or for baseball in general, when

651
00:31:08,680 --> 00:31:13,000
Speaker 1: it comes to anything anything else that comes to mind

652
00:31:13,040 --> 00:31:16,000
Speaker 1: that you think people should keep in their own minds

653
00:31:16,040 --> 00:31:18,080
Speaker 1: when they're approaching this from a better's perspective.

654
00:31:19,320 --> 00:31:20,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, absolutely so.

655
00:31:20,360 --> 00:31:21,720
Speaker 3: The number one thing to me is I think the

656
00:31:21,760 --> 00:31:23,880
Speaker 3: Marlins this year are it's kind of it's gonna be

657
00:31:23,920 --> 00:31:26,000
Speaker 3: a transitional year almost you're gonna see a lot of

658
00:31:26,080 --> 00:31:28,040
Speaker 3: veterans leave and you're gonna see a lot of the

659
00:31:28,080 --> 00:31:30,320
Speaker 3: new the young guys come up for the next season.

660
00:31:30,800 --> 00:31:32,800
Speaker 3: So but the number one thing to me is I

661
00:31:32,840 --> 00:31:35,520
Speaker 3: think the Marlins, like as you said just a moment ago,

662
00:31:35,560 --> 00:31:37,920
Speaker 3: their underdog is a lot so to me, actually, I

663
00:31:37,960 --> 00:31:40,240
Speaker 3: think with the offense they currently have, I think a

664
00:31:40,280 --> 00:31:41,719
Speaker 3: lot of times you're gonna be able to catch some

665
00:31:41,800 --> 00:31:43,800
Speaker 3: really good odds for them to make comebacks. Say they

666
00:31:43,840 --> 00:31:45,960
Speaker 3: hang up three runs in the first, Hey, you know

667
00:31:46,040 --> 00:31:47,880
Speaker 3: last year's Marlins team, you hang up three runs in

668
00:31:47,880 --> 00:31:50,280
Speaker 3: the first, they're probably not going to come back. But

669
00:31:50,360 --> 00:31:52,080
Speaker 3: this season, I definitely think they're gonna come back. And

670
00:31:52,080 --> 00:31:53,720
Speaker 3: I don't think the betting markets canna be ready for

671
00:31:53,720 --> 00:31:55,520
Speaker 3: that because they're gonna look at the same old Marlins

672
00:31:55,560 --> 00:31:57,320
Speaker 3: and just be like, hey, you know they're not gonna

673
00:31:57,320 --> 00:31:59,120
Speaker 3: be able to come back from this. Hey, if you

674
00:31:59,240 --> 00:32:01,160
Speaker 3: believe in the team and they're a live dog and

675
00:32:01,200 --> 00:32:02,760
Speaker 3: you can get eight to one for them to come back,

676
00:32:02,920 --> 00:32:05,120
Speaker 3: you should bet the team. They're gonna be a lot

677
00:32:05,120 --> 00:32:08,200
Speaker 3: of underdogs. So maybe betting the game before the game

678
00:32:08,320 --> 00:32:11,120
Speaker 3: isn't actually the right move. But betting during the game,

679
00:32:11,240 --> 00:32:13,719
Speaker 3: live betting, I think that's definitely the way to go.

680
00:32:13,800 --> 00:32:15,680
Speaker 3: It's a way to bet on them to come back,

681
00:32:15,760 --> 00:32:17,960
Speaker 3: bet on them to make the right decisions. Or personally,

682
00:32:17,960 --> 00:32:19,880
Speaker 3: if you watch the Marlins a lot, you know when

683
00:32:19,880 --> 00:32:21,800
Speaker 3: they're kind of dead in the water. You can tell

684
00:32:21,840 --> 00:32:24,280
Speaker 3: when a pitcher's off, you can tell when the bullpen,

685
00:32:24,520 --> 00:32:26,200
Speaker 3: as you've seen the past couple days, maybe it might

686
00:32:26,240 --> 00:32:27,880
Speaker 3: be a little tired out and they're gonna allow a

687
00:32:27,920 --> 00:32:30,719
Speaker 3: lot of runs, and you know, just to not go

688
00:32:30,800 --> 00:32:32,840
Speaker 3: with the flow, just bet against them, because that's the

689
00:32:32,920 --> 00:32:35,200
Speaker 3: number one thing Sometimes whenever you're betting on a team

690
00:32:35,240 --> 00:32:37,560
Speaker 3: that you love, is you can get biased. So the

691
00:32:37,640 --> 00:32:40,320
Speaker 3: number one thing is whenever you're looking at betting, especially

692
00:32:40,480 --> 00:32:42,120
Speaker 3: on the Marlins, because it's gonna be a team you

693
00:32:42,200 --> 00:32:45,480
Speaker 3: know very well, is to look at it full circle

694
00:32:45,600 --> 00:32:48,720
Speaker 3: and understand when you're being biased that you probably shouldn't

695
00:32:48,720 --> 00:32:51,400
Speaker 3: be betting. But when you understand the team, look at

696
00:32:51,400 --> 00:32:54,000
Speaker 3: it full circle and understand the baseball game, and just

697
00:32:54,000 --> 00:32:57,280
Speaker 3: look at the baseball game itself and bet at like that.

698
00:32:57,280 --> 00:32:59,120
Speaker 3: That's how you make a profit over time.

699
00:33:00,960 --> 00:33:03,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, I got my fingers crossed that the bullpen is

700
00:33:03,560 --> 00:33:06,560
Speaker 1: improved a little bit this year. There were times, especially

701
00:33:06,680 --> 00:33:10,560
Speaker 1: the final couple months of twenty nineteen, that the close

702
00:33:10,600 --> 00:33:14,360
Speaker 1: games turned into blowouts repeatedly down the stretch because they

703
00:33:14,400 --> 00:33:16,880
Speaker 1: traded away some of their key veteran relievers. Others were

704
00:33:16,920 --> 00:33:20,440
Speaker 1: just inconsistent or had injuries, and that was obviously a

705
00:33:20,440 --> 00:33:22,920
Speaker 1: big point of emphasis with the team this past offseason

706
00:33:23,000 --> 00:33:25,800
Speaker 1: is bringing in not necessarily the most experienced arms, but

707
00:33:25,920 --> 00:33:29,360
Speaker 1: just a lot of new ones that had interesting upside,

708
00:33:29,520 --> 00:33:32,760
Speaker 1: that had a new philosophy of having a bullpen that

709
00:33:32,800 --> 00:33:35,640
Speaker 1: has guys actually throw strikes on a consistent basis. That's

710
00:33:35,680 --> 00:33:39,280
Speaker 1: going to be a pretty refreshing change compared to previous years.

711
00:33:39,360 --> 00:33:41,600
Speaker 1: It just applies to what you were saying about trusting

712
00:33:41,680 --> 00:33:44,360
Speaker 1: them to actually come back in certain situations, because that

713
00:33:44,480 --> 00:33:47,880
Speaker 1: was hardly ever happening at all last year because of

714
00:33:47,960 --> 00:33:49,880
Speaker 1: some of the arms you had in that bullpen.

715
00:33:49,800 --> 00:33:51,320
Speaker 2: And how inconsistent they were.

716
00:33:51,800 --> 00:33:55,440
Speaker 1: But hopefully a much different story this time, and obviously

717
00:33:55,480 --> 00:33:57,320
Speaker 1: the front office put in a lot of work in

718
00:33:57,400 --> 00:34:00,440
Speaker 1: terms of just bringing in different options and a lot

719
00:34:00,440 --> 00:34:02,840
Speaker 1: of different looks out of the pen that are hopefully

720
00:34:03,200 --> 00:34:06,080
Speaker 1: hard for opponents to adjust to. And you got extra

721
00:34:06,200 --> 00:34:09,239
Speaker 1: roster spots on the active roster this year where you

722
00:34:09,239 --> 00:34:12,480
Speaker 1: could actually stack it up with more arms to make

723
00:34:12,520 --> 00:34:16,239
Speaker 1: it really unpredictable for your opposing lineups in terms of

724
00:34:16,280 --> 00:34:17,759
Speaker 1: who they is going to come out of that pen

725
00:34:17,920 --> 00:34:20,200
Speaker 1: next and the kind of look they're going to get.

726
00:34:20,480 --> 00:34:23,960
Speaker 1: So I am cautiously optimistic that yeah, we see not

727
00:34:24,040 --> 00:34:26,000
Speaker 1: just more wins, but a lot of those really compelling

728
00:34:26,040 --> 00:34:30,400
Speaker 1: wins where they're able to like undo an early deficit

729
00:34:30,480 --> 00:34:34,120
Speaker 1: and make things really interesting at the end. And this

730
00:34:34,680 --> 00:34:36,600
Speaker 1: is a fun subject and one that I hadn't really

731
00:34:36,880 --> 00:34:40,120
Speaker 1: put all that much thought into specifically for this year,

732
00:34:40,360 --> 00:34:42,719
Speaker 1: And I guess we should add a little disclaimer again,

733
00:34:42,880 --> 00:34:45,200
Speaker 1: just as we did in the beginning, that this is

734
00:34:45,239 --> 00:34:49,400
Speaker 1: a very unpredictable season and if there are pandemic relaid

735
00:34:49,440 --> 00:34:54,080
Speaker 1: circumstances that force any rule changes, the Marlins would have

736
00:34:54,120 --> 00:34:56,640
Speaker 1: to adjust those and we'll have to see whether that

737
00:34:56,719 --> 00:35:00,279
Speaker 1: works in their favor or not. But considering everything we

738
00:35:00,320 --> 00:35:02,919
Speaker 1: know for right now as of this recording a week

739
00:35:02,960 --> 00:35:07,240
Speaker 1: before opening day, I think this was pretty great primer

740
00:35:07,400 --> 00:35:12,200
Speaker 1: and well prepared for us into how to look at

741
00:35:12,239 --> 00:35:14,560
Speaker 1: the Marlins saying as of this year and how this

742
00:35:14,640 --> 00:35:16,680
Speaker 1: sets up for them and how it sets up for

743
00:35:16,760 --> 00:35:20,680
Speaker 1: individual people to take advantage of what the sports books

744
00:35:20,719 --> 00:35:23,920
Speaker 1: are putting out there. Tyler Wilson checking in from the

745
00:35:23,920 --> 00:35:28,120
Speaker 1: West Coast to help us with this process and doing

746
00:35:28,120 --> 00:35:29,120
Speaker 1: an excellent job of that.

747
00:35:29,160 --> 00:35:31,480
Speaker 2: Thank you, Tyler, Hey, thank you for having me on.

748
00:35:31,560 --> 00:35:32,120
Speaker 2: I appreciate it.

749
00:35:32,160 --> 00:35:33,480
Speaker 3: I mean, it was great to talk about all this

750
00:35:33,560 --> 00:35:36,279
Speaker 3: and hopefully we can all make some money together this year.

751
00:35:36,760 --> 00:35:38,640
Speaker 3: As always, you can follow me on at King Buffalo

752
00:35:38,719 --> 00:35:41,120
Speaker 3: and then we can try and win some money all together.

753
00:35:41,520 --> 00:35:43,279
Speaker 3: I'll be trying to bet the Marlins games, trying to

754
00:35:43,280 --> 00:35:44,879
Speaker 3: get as much profit as I can out of there.

755
00:35:45,680 --> 00:35:48,320
Speaker 3: My daughter, she typically wakes up at like one am,

756
00:35:48,440 --> 00:35:50,920
Speaker 3: so I'm sitting there betting on Chinese and Korean esports.

757
00:35:50,960 --> 00:35:52,520
Speaker 3: So I'm gonna be a little happier when i have

758
00:35:52,560 --> 00:35:53,640
Speaker 3: baseball to actually bet on.

759
00:35:54,480 --> 00:35:59,360
Speaker 1: It's been a rough drout for everybody, especially for better Yeah,

760
00:35:59,400 --> 00:36:02,799
Speaker 1: because not just the absence of sports, but yeah, the

761
00:36:02,840 --> 00:36:05,440
Speaker 1: way that so many of these other leagues that are

762
00:36:05,440 --> 00:36:07,760
Speaker 1: able to get going are doing it at all sorts

763
00:36:07,760 --> 00:36:11,200
Speaker 1: of odd hours. But you've almost made it. We've almost

764
00:36:11,239 --> 00:36:13,080
Speaker 1: made it to the other light at the end of

765
00:36:13,080 --> 00:36:15,520
Speaker 1: the tunnel. With baseball and with other sports as well,

766
00:36:15,640 --> 00:36:19,680
Speaker 1: all coming back approximately the same time here in later July.

767
00:36:20,040 --> 00:36:23,600
Speaker 1: So we've reached the ends, and all that did is

768
00:36:23,640 --> 00:36:26,640
Speaker 1: give us more time to actually prepare for how to

769
00:36:26,680 --> 00:36:31,480
Speaker 1: responsibly approach it. So from Eli Sustant Tyler Wilson latest

770
00:36:31,480 --> 00:36:54,600
Speaker 1: episode of Fish Bites, be responsible. Out there, go Fish