WEBVTT - Congress Has to Change Its 19th-Century Structure, Harman Says 0:00:09.720 --> 0:00:12.880 Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene with 0:00:13.560 --> 0:00:16.520 David Gura. Daily we bring you insight from the best 0:00:16.560 --> 0:00:22.279 of economics, finance, investment, and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance 0:00:22.320 --> 0:00:27.000 on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, Bloomberg dot Com, and of course 0:00:27.320 --> 0:00:33.960 on the Bloomberg David Gura and Tom Keene here in 0:00:33.960 --> 0:00:35.839 New York in our Bloomberg eleven for studios. This is 0:00:35.840 --> 0:00:38.240 Bloomberg Surveillance on Bloomberg Radio. As you've mentioned, it's you 0:00:38.360 --> 0:00:40.560 and General Assembly week here in New York and making 0:00:40.560 --> 0:00:42.479 fun of the traffic, but a big deal here is 0:00:42.479 --> 0:00:45.040 more than a hundred heads of state, world leaders descend 0:00:45.120 --> 0:00:47.400 on New York for meetings and dinners and the like, 0:00:47.520 --> 0:00:50.120 and of course President Trump in town schedule to address 0:00:50.159 --> 0:00:53.559 the UN General Assembly tomorrow for the first time. Converressman 0:00:53.600 --> 0:00:55.640 j Flober, Congressman Jan Harmon with us here now in 0:00:55.680 --> 0:00:58.440 our Bloomberg studios. Former Congressman now at President of the 0:00:58.440 --> 0:01:01.360 Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington and DC. Great to have 0:01:01.400 --> 0:01:04.040 you with us. What are you gonna be listening for tomorrow? 0:01:04.080 --> 0:01:06.680 This is a big deal, suffice to say, to have 0:01:06.720 --> 0:01:08.760 this audience to be in that space. What are you 0:01:08.760 --> 0:01:11.240 gonna be listening for from the President tomorrow? Well, this 0:01:11.280 --> 0:01:16.039 is a chance for him to recalibrate his foreign policy. 0:01:16.240 --> 0:01:20.800 I uh, I think his inaugural speech was disappointing, and 0:01:20.880 --> 0:01:23.760 here's a chance on a world stage with world leaders 0:01:24.280 --> 0:01:28.160 for him to sound much more visionary and hopeful, and 0:01:28.319 --> 0:01:30.560 he should take a chance to take the opportunity. In 0:01:30.560 --> 0:01:33.520 my view, he's also having side meetings with all kinds 0:01:33.520 --> 0:01:38.679 of folks Europeans, Africans, and he's having lunch with the 0:01:38.720 --> 0:01:41.920 heads of South Korea and Japan on Thursday. North Korea 0:01:41.959 --> 0:01:44.200 will be the top of his agenda. And again, North 0:01:44.280 --> 0:01:48.760 Korea is an international problem, It's not just an American problem, 0:01:48.800 --> 0:01:50.880 and he needs to make the sale to the whole 0:01:50.920 --> 0:01:54.800 world about why we should work together to contain North 0:01:55.000 --> 0:01:57.880 Korea's missiles and nukes. What's your your sense of how 0:01:57.880 --> 0:02:00.520 he regards the United Nations at this point? Important it 0:02:00.560 --> 0:02:02.440 is to him and his foreign policy portfolio. I do 0:02:02.480 --> 0:02:05.000 note that NICKI Haley u s ambassador to the U 0:02:05.120 --> 0:02:07.680 n Front and center, perhaps even more so than than 0:02:07.680 --> 0:02:11.200 his secretary stay talking about global issues, including the North 0:02:11.280 --> 0:02:13.920 Korea crisis as well. Have you seen an evolution in 0:02:13.960 --> 0:02:17.320 his thinking about this multi, multi ladder institution. At least well, 0:02:17.360 --> 0:02:20.799 he made a terrific choice in Nicki Haley. Um. Who 0:02:20.880 --> 0:02:23.600 knew that the governor of South Carolina would be such 0:02:23.600 --> 0:02:28.040 a star on the U N stage? But she is. However, Um, 0:02:28.080 --> 0:02:30.760 my understanding is he's cutting her staff in half and 0:02:30.760 --> 0:02:33.240 this will be a place where he announces rolling back 0:02:33.560 --> 0:02:37.040 US foreign aid. As a member of Congress, I always 0:02:37.160 --> 0:02:39.679 was amazed when my constituents would say fifty percent of 0:02:39.720 --> 0:02:42.200 the budget goes to foreign aid. Well, excuse me, it's 0:02:42.280 --> 0:02:44.560 less than one percent of the budget, and it is 0:02:44.560 --> 0:02:47.560 probably our best foreign policy tool. You were on the 0:02:47.840 --> 0:02:51.040 Intelligence Committee, the Homeland Security Committee, the Armed Services Committee. 0:02:51.200 --> 0:02:52.919 I really have a great sense of the way that 0:02:52.960 --> 0:02:55.720 security apparatus works in Washington, d C. You talk about 0:02:56.240 --> 0:02:58.919 staffing being cut back, security aid funding being cut back 0:02:59.120 --> 0:03:02.120 as well. How problematic is that to your mind? Um? 0:03:02.120 --> 0:03:04.280 This president talks about reform of the UN, talks about 0:03:04.320 --> 0:03:07.240 reform of all of these institutions, has even joked about 0:03:07.240 --> 0:03:09.440 to Russia sending back a bunch of diplomats that's helping 0:03:09.440 --> 0:03:14.239 the bottom line. From from from a perspective of actionable policy, 0:03:14.240 --> 0:03:17.000 how affected. Are these institutions as a result of the 0:03:17.000 --> 0:03:18.679 cuts that we've seen thus far or the positions that 0:03:18.720 --> 0:03:21.000 have gone unfilmed. Well, let's understand that I don't think 0:03:21.040 --> 0:03:24.040 Congress will stand for this, and I think many in 0:03:24.080 --> 0:03:27.040 Congress Lindsey Graham comes to mind, many in the President's 0:03:27.080 --> 0:03:30.160 party will restore the funding. So let's go there. But 0:03:30.200 --> 0:03:33.640 if the seventh floor, which is the main UH floor 0:03:33.680 --> 0:03:36.600 of senior people at the State Department, is empty, how 0:03:36.640 --> 0:03:39.880 can Rex to listen succeed. So that's the beginning of 0:03:39.880 --> 0:03:42.680 the of the problem. But in addition to that, UM 0:03:42.960 --> 0:03:47.080 Jim Mattis are are very capable. Secretary Defense says that 0:03:47.680 --> 0:03:51.920 UH military policy has to be lashed up to diplomatic 0:03:52.160 --> 0:03:54.680 policy or whatever you want to call it for UH 0:03:54.880 --> 0:04:00.200 non non non military policy, and without people, you can't 0:04:00.240 --> 0:04:04.119 do it. Madam arro Space, that's what my father called you. 0:04:04.040 --> 0:04:08.000 You you were the congresswoman of the aerospace industry. Anyone 0:04:08.080 --> 0:04:13.200 would always say that you had a wonderful understanding of aerospace. 0:04:13.520 --> 0:04:18.279 Are you taken back by the merger frenzy among defense 0:04:18.400 --> 0:04:23.159 contractors and in this highly technological expertise that we have 0:04:23.760 --> 0:04:27.479 U t X. Rockwell Collins of cedar rapids, and now 0:04:27.480 --> 0:04:30.920 we've got Orbital Sciences being crow bought out by north Room. 0:04:31.080 --> 0:04:33.360 Come on, it's all gonna be one big company, isn't it. 0:04:33.440 --> 0:04:37.679 Is that what you want? Not so much. Perry, who 0:04:37.920 --> 0:04:40.960 was an extraordinarily good Secretary of Defense back and you 0:04:41.000 --> 0:04:45.000 know another century when Bill Clinton was president, had what 0:04:45.120 --> 0:04:48.080 was famously called the Last Supper, and that was with 0:04:48.800 --> 0:04:53.520 heads of defense firms. This is not a yes. And 0:04:53.839 --> 0:04:58.200 his point was that the UH defense procurement budget is 0:04:58.200 --> 0:05:00.360 getting smaller. We all thought there would be a piece 0:05:00.400 --> 0:05:03.680 dividend after the end of the Cold War, but at 0:05:03.720 --> 0:05:07.800 any rate, UH, and that these firms should consider merging UH. 0:05:07.839 --> 0:05:11.359 And they also did consider. This was something I'm proud 0:05:11.400 --> 0:05:17.560 of going into UH many non military activities, dual use 0:05:17.760 --> 0:05:21.080 activities which made them stronger. So I'm not surprised to 0:05:21.080 --> 0:05:24.840 see continued mergers. The advantages that many of these very 0:05:24.880 --> 0:05:27.880 good firms, and Northrop is one of them, UH will 0:05:28.040 --> 0:05:32.560 be UH good stewards of this new acquisition. The disadvantages 0:05:32.640 --> 0:05:36.400 you lose the nimbleness and the flexibility of the smaller firms. 0:05:36.400 --> 0:05:39.200 So I think it's a mixed bag. I'm strongly for 0:05:39.560 --> 0:05:42.760 a strong defense, as you know, and Madam Mary's space 0:05:42.800 --> 0:05:48.720 ain't bad. I used to call myself Boeing's mother was 0:05:48.760 --> 0:05:52.000 out of Boulder, Colorado. They played dead like nobody. Jane 0:05:52.040 --> 0:05:54.680 harmon with us the thirty six district, of course, at 0:05:54.680 --> 0:05:58.279 the Woodrow Wilson Center. Now we continue, Jane, there was 0:05:58.320 --> 0:06:01.279 that couch scene the other day, speak your Pelosi majority 0:06:01.400 --> 0:06:04.600 leader Schumer and some other guy from the other party. 0:06:04.800 --> 0:06:08.960 Can the Democratic Party migrate over to Jane Harman's Democratic 0:06:09.040 --> 0:06:12.160 Party or is it going to be Clinton Pelosi forever? Well? 0:06:12.160 --> 0:06:14.320 How's this? What's the What are the young kids gonna do? 0:06:14.600 --> 0:06:17.440 Are they going to refine you in Scoop Jackson? Yeah? Well, 0:06:17.480 --> 0:06:20.000 I yes, I have called myself a Scoop Jackson Democrat 0:06:20.040 --> 0:06:22.039 for years. I actually knew him when I was a 0:06:22.080 --> 0:06:25.280 Senate aid in the early seventies and he was he 0:06:25.360 --> 0:06:30.480 was Boeing Senator. So from from Washington State. But yesterday 0:06:30.600 --> 0:06:32.920 in this town there was a meeting of something called 0:06:32.920 --> 0:06:35.960 the New Center. The New Center is an idea factory 0:06:36.120 --> 0:06:40.360 co chaired by Bill Crystal and Bill Galston. Uh, imagine that. 0:06:40.800 --> 0:06:43.640 And it has produced a set of ideas and I 0:06:43.640 --> 0:06:47.040 think are very attractive to both parties. So that's out there. 0:06:47.200 --> 0:06:49.560 Maybe it'll get traction, Maybe people will move to the 0:06:49.560 --> 0:06:52.040 center in both parties. Okay, Secretary Clinton's out in a 0:06:52.080 --> 0:06:54.520 book tour taking a victory lap. I guess, And we 0:06:54.600 --> 0:06:57.080 had all the uproar last week. David gurg covered it 0:06:57.360 --> 0:07:02.239 really well in politics. Congresswoman Harman, how do you win minute? 0:07:02.240 --> 0:07:04.640 How do you win Michigan? How do you win Wisconsin? 0:07:04.880 --> 0:07:07.400 How do you win the rectangle that looks like Tennessee? 0:07:07.720 --> 0:07:11.000 That was your district east of l A. Well, I 0:07:11.120 --> 0:07:13.680 won in a lean Republican district. Now, how did I 0:07:14.080 --> 0:07:16.360 in my first story terms? How did I do that? 0:07:16.400 --> 0:07:19.520 I had a vision of where we were going that 0:07:19.760 --> 0:07:22.920 uh people bought. You got to have a vision. It's 0:07:22.960 --> 0:07:25.640 not just that the other guy's bad. It's why you're 0:07:25.760 --> 0:07:28.720 good when you left it. When you left the Congress, 0:07:29.120 --> 0:07:32.840 things were i'll say, getting bad in terms of partisanship, 0:07:33.280 --> 0:07:35.000 in terms of the ability for Congress to get things. 0:07:35.000 --> 0:07:37.120 Then we saw another continuing resolution here kicking the can 0:07:37.200 --> 0:07:39.680 for three months. Now, what do you say to those 0:07:39.680 --> 0:07:42.960 who are just completely skeptical of Congress's ability to get anything? 0:07:42.960 --> 0:07:45.120 And what's it gonna? What's it gonna bring what's gonna 0:07:45.160 --> 0:07:47.320 bring you back to regular order in the US Congress? 0:07:47.360 --> 0:07:50.120 Do you think, well, I believe in Congress. I did 0:07:50.200 --> 0:07:53.240 leave because of the toxic partisanship, and I got a 0:07:53.240 --> 0:07:59.360 better offer to be in a bipartisan, nonpartisan intellect fund. Yeah, 0:07:59.440 --> 0:08:02.040 but not for me. It's not invest in me. It's 0:08:02.080 --> 0:08:07.920 invested in in amazing, brilliant ideas. So which is an 0:08:08.000 --> 0:08:11.480 easier sell, got to say. But at any rate, I 0:08:11.960 --> 0:08:14.679 still think Congress can work. There's so many people there 0:08:14.880 --> 0:08:16.920 who want to do the right thing in both parties 0:08:16.960 --> 0:08:19.120 as they define it. What's wrong is the is the 0:08:19.160 --> 0:08:21.760 business models broken U. The game is to blame the 0:08:21.800 --> 0:08:23.960 other side for not solving the problem. If you work 0:08:24.080 --> 0:08:27.000 with the other side, you get primaried. California has figured 0:08:27.000 --> 0:08:30.240 out a better answer. We have UH citizen commissions to 0:08:30.320 --> 0:08:32.920 draw lines. We have what's called a jungle primary where 0:08:32.920 --> 0:08:35.400 everyone runs against everyone, and that way you have to 0:08:35.480 --> 0:08:37.680 listen to other people and be open to other ideas. 0:08:38.040 --> 0:08:41.200 There's been a tendency to fix Congress by trying to 0:08:41.200 --> 0:08:44.559 blow it up. UH, And I wonder what you make 0:08:44.640 --> 0:08:46.840 of the way that many elected representatives have pursued that 0:08:47.320 --> 0:08:50.400 who has the institutional knowledge the memory, uh, to figure 0:08:50.400 --> 0:08:52.560 out the way that the Congress works, and to to 0:08:52.640 --> 0:08:55.760 find solutions that will actually improve the way things working. Right. Actually, 0:08:55.840 --> 0:08:58.280 I like the last part of that question about improve 0:08:58.760 --> 0:09:01.720 Congress has a nineteen entry committee structure. I mean, why 0:09:01.720 --> 0:09:04.280 do we need an agriculture committee when we don't really 0:09:04.320 --> 0:09:08.599 have a Homeland Security committee with with ample jurisdiction, uh, etcetera. 0:09:08.880 --> 0:09:11.400 So I do think Congress has to change, and being 0:09:11.440 --> 0:09:14.560 disruptive is not a bad thing, but being disruptive with 0:09:14.640 --> 0:09:17.760 respect for the institution is the way it needs to happen. 0:09:17.920 --> 0:09:19.800 We do a huge thing on STEM here. Thank you, 0:09:19.840 --> 0:09:24.040 New Jersey Institute Technology. You're Smithy, that's the ultimate liberal 0:09:24.120 --> 0:09:27.480 arts Massachusetts school. Tell me how if it's science in 0:09:27.480 --> 0:09:30.280 the new curriculum, A woman of the liberal arts, how 0:09:30.280 --> 0:09:32.840 do you fit science and math into the new liberal 0:09:32.960 --> 0:09:35.240 arts curriculum? Boy? Was that a softball? First of all, 0:09:35.640 --> 0:09:38.320 I applied early decision to Smith having never seen it 0:09:38.400 --> 0:09:41.240 from public school in Los Angeles. So very cool. Uh, 0:09:41.400 --> 0:09:44.200 it was very cool. And Smith was the first women's 0:09:44.240 --> 0:09:47.320 college to have an engineering program and it's had it 0:09:47.400 --> 0:09:50.000 for years, So just so you know, so it's not so, 0:09:50.160 --> 0:09:51.920 how do we get quickly here. How do we get 0:09:51.960 --> 0:09:55.280 women to stay in math, stay in science and do 0:09:55.360 --> 0:09:59.600 it like the women that made Cassini I by making 0:09:59.600 --> 0:10:02.920 it more easily available and making it cool. And you 0:10:03.040 --> 0:10:05.400 ask about it on your program every single day, and 0:10:05.440 --> 0:10:08.280 more women will tune in and and put mentors on 0:10:08.320 --> 0:10:10.439 your program and they'll do it. We try to do it. 0:10:10.480 --> 0:10:13.720 I know you're still congresswomen keep funding jp L Jane 0:10:13.720 --> 0:10:17.120 Harmon Madam Merrow Space from California has something to do 0:10:17.160 --> 0:10:19.720 with the school in New Jersey now as well. This 0:10:19.920 --> 0:10:34.720 is Bloomberg Ratter joining us now in our Bloomic eleventh 0:10:34.720 --> 0:10:36.680 three US too is the chairman of will It Advisors. 0:10:37.440 --> 0:10:38.880 UH great to have you with us here. Let me 0:10:38.920 --> 0:10:42.320 start just by asking you about the week ahead. Yes, 0:10:42.360 --> 0:10:43.959 we have the FED. We also have a lot of 0:10:43.960 --> 0:10:45.959 traffic here on the upper east side of Manhattan's the 0:10:46.000 --> 0:10:48.480 UN General As simply gets underway. The President scheduled to 0:10:48.480 --> 0:10:51.959 speak tomorrow before that that international body. What are you 0:10:52.000 --> 0:10:55.400 gonna be listening for? We had a list of what 0:10:55.440 --> 0:10:58.760 this administration is prioritizing from UH, the U S Ambassador 0:10:58.760 --> 0:11:00.120 to the U N and from the National City. Your 0:11:00.200 --> 0:11:02.679 advisor on Friday reform high up on the list. The 0:11:02.679 --> 0:11:06.160 President attending a meeting about UN reform today in particularly, 0:11:06.160 --> 0:11:08.080 what are you gonna be listening for tomorrow? Well, as 0:11:08.120 --> 0:11:10.640 you know, there are really two Trumps. There's the there's 0:11:10.720 --> 0:11:16.120 the more congenial, more broad, broad looking Trump, and then 0:11:16.160 --> 0:11:19.080 there's the more of the the ugly Trump. And it 0:11:19.080 --> 0:11:21.319 will be interesting, especially with Steve Batton gone from the 0:11:21.360 --> 0:11:23.520 White House, to see if we get more of the 0:11:23.559 --> 0:11:28.520 good Trump. Now, even some of of Trump's more experienced 0:11:28.520 --> 0:11:32.760 people do favor reforming the UN, cutting what we pay 0:11:32.800 --> 0:11:34.920 to the U and things like that. So I think 0:11:34.920 --> 0:11:37.160 in the speech is obviously going to be presumably a 0:11:37.240 --> 0:11:40.439 hunk about North Korea, UH, and there's going to be 0:11:40.480 --> 0:11:43.120 a piece about how he sees the UN going forward. 0:11:43.160 --> 0:11:46.280 He does not like multilateral institutions. I think we've learned 0:11:46.320 --> 0:11:49.800 that about his personality, So it'll it'll be interesting. It 0:11:49.800 --> 0:11:51.760 could be a pretty tough speech. It could be a 0:11:51.800 --> 0:11:55.280 pretty tough speech, but I suspect he'll stay within the fairway. 0:11:55.640 --> 0:11:58.520 How do you assess the efficacy of sanctions? We saw 0:11:58.559 --> 0:12:00.720 the U. N Security Council apply another round of them 0:12:00.800 --> 0:12:04.680 last week on North Korea. There's talk perhaps of Moore. 0:12:05.120 --> 0:12:08.000 We've had them in North Korea, on Venezuela, on Russia, 0:12:08.000 --> 0:12:09.840 on a number of other countries. How do you know 0:12:09.880 --> 0:12:13.280 if they're working? They I think sanctions at best take 0:12:13.320 --> 0:12:15.160 a long time to work. You can go further back 0:12:15.200 --> 0:12:17.280 in history and you look at Rhodija, you can look 0:12:17.280 --> 0:12:20.520 at Cuba, you can look at Iran. Uh You're talking 0:12:20.520 --> 0:12:22.800 about things that take decades and may then even have 0:12:22.880 --> 0:12:24.559 no effect, and then at some point you just decide 0:12:24.640 --> 0:12:28.080 unwind them. But look, we have a limited toolbox of 0:12:28.240 --> 0:12:31.640 things we can do about North Korea short of military activity, 0:12:31.679 --> 0:12:33.760 which I don't think anybody thinks is a good idea, 0:12:34.320 --> 0:12:37.120 And sanctions are simply are simply one part of it. 0:12:37.160 --> 0:12:39.520 And I think I would give the President and Nicky 0:12:39.600 --> 0:12:41.959 Heilly in particular high marks for getting a fifteen to 0:12:42.040 --> 0:12:44.880 nothing vote on a set of sanctions. And I think 0:12:45.040 --> 0:12:47.200 I think if you take out Trump or Trump has said, 0:12:47.240 --> 0:12:50.160 somewhat Trump has said and most of his tweets, the 0:12:50.200 --> 0:12:53.320 actual things that are being said by Rex Tillison and 0:12:53.360 --> 0:12:56.000 Nikki Hilly yesterday on the Sunday shows the way. It's 0:12:56.520 --> 0:12:59.040 the way the professionals are handling this is actually I 0:12:59.080 --> 0:13:01.679 think about as good as it gets. But there is 0:13:01.720 --> 0:13:04.400 the green marble of the u N. There is something 0:13:04.440 --> 0:13:08.640 about walking into that time warp of middle sixties architecture 0:13:09.360 --> 0:13:12.680 and walking into that Assembly hall. I'm assuming he's never 0:13:12.760 --> 0:13:15.120 done that. He's going to go up there against that 0:13:15.240 --> 0:13:18.960 green marble and act at what ecumenical? Is that the 0:13:19.040 --> 0:13:21.840 right word? I mean, what if somebody pops off and 0:13:21.880 --> 0:13:25.560 says something, What if like somebody who's kind of somebody 0:13:25.640 --> 0:13:29.040 puts some you know, do you think he's gonna stay 0:13:29.040 --> 0:13:32.880 on message? I think he is going to stay on message. 0:13:32.880 --> 0:13:35.440 I just don't know what the message is, right. And 0:13:35.480 --> 0:13:40.079 the Secretary Tillison's showing up, I assume. So every Secretary 0:13:40.120 --> 0:13:42.520 of State in history has been at the UN General 0:13:42.559 --> 0:13:45.360 Assembly week as far as I know, I assume. So Look, 0:13:45.440 --> 0:13:48.480 my my guess is that you will get. My guess 0:13:48.559 --> 0:13:50.960 is that he will get a measure Trump who will 0:13:51.000 --> 0:13:53.440 be tough about the u N and say that there 0:13:53.440 --> 0:13:55.960 should be changes and it's not as effective as it 0:13:56.040 --> 0:13:59.520 should be, etcetera, etcetera. And I think he'll be tough 0:13:59.559 --> 0:14:01.800 on North Korea, but I think he will stay inside 0:14:01.840 --> 0:14:06.320 the fairway in terms of talk. And I'm not even 0:14:06.320 --> 0:14:07.880 a Golfer. But I think it will stay in the 0:14:07.880 --> 0:14:10.439 fairway in terms of the kinds of things. He says, 0:14:11.400 --> 0:14:13.120 I believe President She's not going to be here play 0:14:13.160 --> 0:14:15.000 President Putin is not going to be here as well. 0:14:15.120 --> 0:14:16.880 How much a vacuum does that leave? I mean, I 0:14:16.880 --> 0:14:19.440 think of of of the two countries on this globe 0:14:19.480 --> 0:14:21.800 that have the largest impact on a number of these 0:14:21.800 --> 0:14:25.360 big issues, be that North Korea or Syria. Uh, is 0:14:25.360 --> 0:14:28.560 it going to be a hindrance to actual things getting 0:14:28.560 --> 0:14:30.480 done by them not being here in New York? Yes? 0:14:30.480 --> 0:14:32.600 And no. I think obviously in the modern world there's 0:14:32.640 --> 0:14:35.240 certainly communications back and forth with their people that will 0:14:35.280 --> 0:14:37.960 allow things to happen. But but I think it does. 0:14:38.120 --> 0:14:41.080 I think we do lose something because I think I 0:14:41.160 --> 0:14:44.680 think having our president have a chance to bilaterals with 0:14:44.800 --> 0:14:47.680 Putin with g is an important part of trying to 0:14:47.760 --> 0:14:52.600 diplomatically move the world forward. God, twelve seconds left left? 0:14:52.880 --> 0:14:55.920 Long time? Can you own an Apple? Here? We've had 0:14:56.000 --> 0:14:58.240 really different a different set of opinions over the list, 0:14:59.560 --> 0:15:04.960 that's what. Yeah. I have never owned Apple, not because 0:15:05.000 --> 0:15:07.280 I don't like the company and obviously been wrong. I 0:15:07.320 --> 0:15:10.080 think I think they've done a great job I think 0:15:10.120 --> 0:15:13.560 that I think the existential question for Apple is what 0:15:13.760 --> 0:15:16.560 is the next act? And as Tim Cook able to 0:15:16.560 --> 0:15:19.160 produce it? You know, Steve Jobs, if you just think 0:15:19.200 --> 0:15:21.600 back to when Steve when this thing made, When when 0:15:21.640 --> 0:15:23.560 Apple made some computers and that was kind of it, 0:15:23.560 --> 0:15:25.480 and Steve Jobs said well, We're gonna make a phone, 0:15:25.960 --> 0:15:28.240 and every said what And the phone is now over 0:15:28.320 --> 0:15:31.040 half the business, as you know, and the iPad and 0:15:31.080 --> 0:15:33.400 the Apple TV and the I Watch and all of 0:15:33.400 --> 0:15:36.160 the others now and now all the media stuff. The 0:15:36.240 --> 0:15:40.240 question really is, can Tim Cook produced an innovation on 0:15:40.280 --> 0:15:42.680 the scale of the kinds of things Steve Jobs did 0:15:42.960 --> 0:15:46.320 that really transform the company? Steve Wrotner, thank you so 0:15:46.400 --> 0:15:49.560 much for you in perspective. How do you get around town? 0:15:51.960 --> 0:15:55.600 I do a lot of walking guy a helicopter. I 0:15:55.960 --> 0:15:57.880 I try not to go a little sixtieth Street and 0:15:57.920 --> 0:16:00.480 I do a lot of walking. You would be at 0:16:00.480 --> 0:16:03.000 Steve Wrenner, thank you so much. As Willow Advisors should 0:16:03.080 --> 0:16:07.040 point out an investment advisor to Michael Bloomberg, the principal 0:16:07.040 --> 0:16:09.600 owner of the company and also of course owner of 0:16:09.640 --> 0:16:24.080 Bloomberg Radio as well, Alan Krueger here in Bloomberg eleven 0:16:24.080 --> 0:16:26.160 three US to the professor of Economics and Public Policy 0:16:26.480 --> 0:16:28.720 at Princeton, former chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors 0:16:28.800 --> 0:16:31.960 under President Obama. This this week, the President has proclaimed 0:16:31.960 --> 0:16:35.800 this week to be Prescription Opioid and Heroin Epidemic Awareness Week. 0:16:36.400 --> 0:16:39.200 He's talked about opio addiction the problem of it in 0:16:39.200 --> 0:16:41.480 this country a few times. I don't think he's gone 0:16:41.520 --> 0:16:43.520 so for US to declared a national emergency yet, but 0:16:43.520 --> 0:16:45.920 it is certainly indicated that might be that might be coming. 0:16:46.480 --> 0:16:48.480 We talked about it in a social context, help us 0:16:48.480 --> 0:16:50.720 frame it in an economic context. How big an issue 0:16:50.800 --> 0:16:53.440 is this for the US at this point? Well, I 0:16:53.480 --> 0:16:56.320 give the President credit for talking about the issue. I 0:16:56.360 --> 0:16:59.560 think it's important that we also take some concrete actions, 0:16:59.840 --> 0:17:01.840 and I was hoping that the commission that he set 0:17:01.920 --> 0:17:05.000 up would make proposals to try to reduce the crisis. 0:17:05.800 --> 0:17:10.119 I've been doing research on how the spread of opioid 0:17:10.200 --> 0:17:14.200 use has been affecting labor force participation, and as you know, David, 0:17:14.240 --> 0:17:16.600 we have a problem of low labor force participation in 0:17:16.600 --> 0:17:19.439 the US that's run into the opioid crisis. And I 0:17:19.480 --> 0:17:22.440 think those two problems are now intertwined. When I look 0:17:22.480 --> 0:17:26.600 at prime age men, UM, I find that almost half 0:17:26.600 --> 0:17:30.520 for taking pain medication every day. Two thirds of those 0:17:30.840 --> 0:17:34.399 people are taking prescription medication. And a new study I 0:17:34.440 --> 0:17:37.280 have that I just presented at the Brookings Institution last week, 0:17:37.280 --> 0:17:41.280 I found that areas of the country where more opioid 0:17:41.320 --> 0:17:44.440 medication is being prescribed have seen bigger decline in labor 0:17:44.480 --> 0:17:48.320 force participation. Of course, there could be other factors behind that, 0:17:48.359 --> 0:17:51.040 but from what I can tell, this is possibly depressed 0:17:51.920 --> 0:17:54.920 UM the participation rate by more than half a percentage 0:17:54.920 --> 0:17:58.000 point for prime age men. Again, we're talking about the 0:17:58.080 --> 0:18:00.359 through the economic factors here. When you look at the 0:18:00.600 --> 0:18:03.080 conversation about this issue in particular, how much dialogue has 0:18:03.080 --> 0:18:08.720 there been among economists and social scientists and addiction specialists 0:18:08.720 --> 0:18:11.199 and medical doctors. You mentioned the commission that the President established. 0:18:11.240 --> 0:18:12.720 I don't think that there was a medical doctor on 0:18:12.760 --> 0:18:16.400 that committee of four or five individuals. Are you satisfied 0:18:16.400 --> 0:18:18.520 as you look into this that the kind of dialogue 0:18:18.520 --> 0:18:21.280 we need to have is taking place, incorporating your economics 0:18:21.280 --> 0:18:24.840 with the medical side of this issue as well. There's 0:18:24.880 --> 0:18:28.160 a lot of fascinating research that's being done. UM. Some 0:18:28.240 --> 0:18:30.760 of the results quite depressing. I'll tell you an example. 0:18:30.800 --> 0:18:33.480 I have a colleague, Janet Curry, who has a study 0:18:33.520 --> 0:18:38.160 which finds that doctors who attended lower ranked medical schools 0:18:38.480 --> 0:18:41.840 are more likely to prescribe opioid medication, looking within the 0:18:41.920 --> 0:18:46.080 same county, looking within the same field as specialty. Um. 0:18:46.240 --> 0:18:49.239 So I think there's fascinating research that's being done. I 0:18:49.280 --> 0:18:53.640 haven't seen much interest from policymakers yet. Alan Krueger were 0:18:53.640 --> 0:18:56.080 this folks, And again, as we like to do from 0:18:56.080 --> 0:18:58.480 time to time, particularly with someone with a reach of professor, 0:18:58.520 --> 0:19:01.520 Krueger has moved away from the usual, which is jobs 0:19:01.520 --> 0:19:04.600 in the economy, to his important work of Brooking's paper 0:19:04.720 --> 0:19:09.240 Run Opioid and and such. Um, there's some wonderful first 0:19:09.320 --> 0:19:12.520 order difference equations within your report, and maybe even so 0:19:12.680 --> 0:19:16.000 an oiler function because we're not quite sure. There's lambda's 0:19:16.160 --> 0:19:19.679 and other Greek letters. What the public wants to know 0:19:20.000 --> 0:19:23.960 is Horse and Kurt, which is almost economics one oh one. 0:19:24.800 --> 0:19:29.720 Do the drugs cause the unemployment or does the unemployment 0:19:30.240 --> 0:19:34.680 cause the drugs? Well, that's an excellent question. And I 0:19:34.760 --> 0:19:36.639 appreciate Ton that you have a copy of my study 0:19:36.760 --> 0:19:42.399 right next to you. I really appreciate that. And you 0:19:42.480 --> 0:19:43.919 cut right to the heart of the matter. So I 0:19:43.960 --> 0:19:46.280 appreciate that. You know, I think the arrows point in 0:19:46.320 --> 0:19:51.200 both directions, and in certain level, the initial causality is 0:19:51.280 --> 0:19:54.040 less important than the reality that this is a problem 0:19:54.040 --> 0:19:56.399 that needs to be addressed. This is so important. You nailed, 0:19:56.720 --> 0:20:00.760 You go right. It goes in both directions, But political 0:20:00.880 --> 0:20:04.479 discourse is no, it goes in this direction, and the 0:20:04.480 --> 0:20:07.480 other side says no, it goes in that direction. Can 0:20:07.480 --> 0:20:10.639 we get compromise on the couch in the Oval Office 0:20:10.720 --> 0:20:14.040 on opioids and drug addiction? This heroin epidemic that we 0:20:14.119 --> 0:20:18.439 have no I think there is widespread agreement that this 0:20:18.520 --> 0:20:20.600 is a significant problem, and I think that came out 0:20:20.640 --> 0:20:25.280 in the presidential election. Um, there's been very little discussion 0:20:25.320 --> 0:20:26.600 about what to do it about it. I mean, let 0:20:26.640 --> 0:20:27.919 me give you another example time. And one of the 0:20:27.920 --> 0:20:30.760 findings in that in that Brooking study is that three 0:20:30.840 --> 0:20:36.240 quarters of the prescription pain medication that man a rather 0:20:36.280 --> 0:20:39.600 the labor force are taking is being paid for by Medicaid, 0:20:39.680 --> 0:20:44.520 Medicare or Veterans Administration program. So the government does have 0:20:44.640 --> 0:20:49.040 levers to try to influence the initial prescription, and that 0:20:49.320 --> 0:20:51.280 does seem to be a source of a lot of 0:20:51.280 --> 0:20:53.840 the addiction. Even if people move to illegal drugs, it 0:20:53.880 --> 0:20:57.640 seems that they're addiction is starting with prescription medication. That's 0:20:57.640 --> 0:20:59.520 such a good point. And on the subject of a 0:20:59.560 --> 0:21:02.160 legal us, I mean there's another economics issue here as well, 0:21:02.240 --> 0:21:04.960 which is just the relative cheapness of a lot of 0:21:05.000 --> 0:21:07.120 these drugs. They're easier to get, and they're they're less 0:21:07.119 --> 0:21:10.320 expensive as well. Well. That's part of the problem. The 0:21:10.359 --> 0:21:13.800 New York Times had an article today about insurance companies 0:21:13.840 --> 0:21:18.840 being reluctant to prescribe more expensive but less addictive pain medication. Uh. 0:21:18.840 --> 0:21:21.439 And that comes down to economics, and I don't think 0:21:21.480 --> 0:21:24.359 the insurance companies are taking full account of the cost 0:21:24.440 --> 0:21:27.560 of the externalities of having over thirty thousand people a 0:21:27.640 --> 0:21:30.560 year or die from opioid abuse. We are our parents 0:21:30.760 --> 0:21:34.040 lectured us on heroin. It's what they were afraid of, 0:21:34.800 --> 0:21:36.720