1 00:00:09,720 --> 00:00:12,880 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene with 2 00:00:13,560 --> 00:00:16,520 Speaker 1: David Gura. Daily we bring you insight from the best 3 00:00:16,560 --> 00:00:22,279 Speaker 1: of economics, finance, investment, and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance 4 00:00:22,320 --> 00:00:27,000 Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, Bloomberg dot Com, and of course 5 00:00:27,320 --> 00:00:33,960 Speaker 1: on the Bloomberg David Gura and Tom Keene here in 6 00:00:33,960 --> 00:00:35,839 Speaker 1: New York in our Bloomberg eleven for studios. This is 7 00:00:35,840 --> 00:00:38,240 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Surveillance on Bloomberg Radio. As you've mentioned, it's you 8 00:00:38,360 --> 00:00:40,560 Speaker 1: and General Assembly week here in New York and making 9 00:00:40,560 --> 00:00:42,479 Speaker 1: fun of the traffic, but a big deal here is 10 00:00:42,479 --> 00:00:45,040 Speaker 1: more than a hundred heads of state, world leaders descend 11 00:00:45,120 --> 00:00:47,400 Speaker 1: on New York for meetings and dinners and the like, 12 00:00:47,520 --> 00:00:50,120 Speaker 1: and of course President Trump in town schedule to address 13 00:00:50,159 --> 00:00:53,559 Speaker 1: the UN General Assembly tomorrow for the first time. Converressman 14 00:00:53,600 --> 00:00:55,640 Speaker 1: j Flober, Congressman Jan Harmon with us here now in 15 00:00:55,680 --> 00:00:58,440 Speaker 1: our Bloomberg studios. Former Congressman now at President of the 16 00:00:58,440 --> 00:01:01,360 Speaker 1: Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington and DC. Great to have 17 00:01:01,400 --> 00:01:04,040 Speaker 1: you with us. What are you gonna be listening for tomorrow? 18 00:01:04,080 --> 00:01:06,680 Speaker 1: This is a big deal, suffice to say, to have 19 00:01:06,720 --> 00:01:08,760 Speaker 1: this audience to be in that space. What are you 20 00:01:08,760 --> 00:01:11,240 Speaker 1: gonna be listening for from the President tomorrow? Well, this 21 00:01:11,280 --> 00:01:16,039 Speaker 1: is a chance for him to recalibrate his foreign policy. 22 00:01:16,240 --> 00:01:20,800 Speaker 1: I uh, I think his inaugural speech was disappointing, and 23 00:01:20,880 --> 00:01:23,760 Speaker 1: here's a chance on a world stage with world leaders 24 00:01:24,280 --> 00:01:28,160 Speaker 1: for him to sound much more visionary and hopeful, and 25 00:01:28,319 --> 00:01:30,560 Speaker 1: he should take a chance to take the opportunity. In 26 00:01:30,560 --> 00:01:33,520 Speaker 1: my view, he's also having side meetings with all kinds 27 00:01:33,520 --> 00:01:38,679 Speaker 1: of folks Europeans, Africans, and he's having lunch with the 28 00:01:38,720 --> 00:01:41,920 Speaker 1: heads of South Korea and Japan on Thursday. North Korea 29 00:01:41,959 --> 00:01:44,200 Speaker 1: will be the top of his agenda. And again, North 30 00:01:44,280 --> 00:01:48,760 Speaker 1: Korea is an international problem, It's not just an American problem, 31 00:01:48,800 --> 00:01:50,880 Speaker 1: and he needs to make the sale to the whole 32 00:01:50,920 --> 00:01:54,800 Speaker 1: world about why we should work together to contain North 33 00:01:55,000 --> 00:01:57,880 Speaker 1: Korea's missiles and nukes. What's your your sense of how 34 00:01:57,880 --> 00:02:00,520 Speaker 1: he regards the United Nations at this point? Important it 35 00:02:00,560 --> 00:02:02,440 Speaker 1: is to him and his foreign policy portfolio. I do 36 00:02:02,480 --> 00:02:05,000 Speaker 1: note that NICKI Haley u s ambassador to the U 37 00:02:05,120 --> 00:02:07,680 Speaker 1: n Front and center, perhaps even more so than than 38 00:02:07,680 --> 00:02:11,200 Speaker 1: his secretary stay talking about global issues, including the North 39 00:02:11,280 --> 00:02:13,920 Speaker 1: Korea crisis as well. Have you seen an evolution in 40 00:02:13,960 --> 00:02:17,320 Speaker 1: his thinking about this multi, multi ladder institution. At least well, 41 00:02:17,360 --> 00:02:20,799 Speaker 1: he made a terrific choice in Nicki Haley. Um. Who 42 00:02:20,880 --> 00:02:23,600 Speaker 1: knew that the governor of South Carolina would be such 43 00:02:23,600 --> 00:02:28,040 Speaker 1: a star on the U N stage? But she is. However, Um, 44 00:02:28,080 --> 00:02:30,760 Speaker 1: my understanding is he's cutting her staff in half and 45 00:02:30,760 --> 00:02:33,240 Speaker 1: this will be a place where he announces rolling back 46 00:02:33,560 --> 00:02:37,040 Speaker 1: US foreign aid. As a member of Congress, I always 47 00:02:37,160 --> 00:02:39,679 Speaker 1: was amazed when my constituents would say fifty percent of 48 00:02:39,720 --> 00:02:42,200 Speaker 1: the budget goes to foreign aid. Well, excuse me, it's 49 00:02:42,280 --> 00:02:44,560 Speaker 1: less than one percent of the budget, and it is 50 00:02:44,560 --> 00:02:47,560 Speaker 1: probably our best foreign policy tool. You were on the 51 00:02:47,840 --> 00:02:51,040 Speaker 1: Intelligence Committee, the Homeland Security Committee, the Armed Services Committee. 52 00:02:51,200 --> 00:02:52,919 Speaker 1: I really have a great sense of the way that 53 00:02:52,960 --> 00:02:55,720 Speaker 1: security apparatus works in Washington, d C. You talk about 54 00:02:56,240 --> 00:02:58,919 Speaker 1: staffing being cut back, security aid funding being cut back 55 00:02:59,120 --> 00:03:02,120 Speaker 1: as well. How problematic is that to your mind? Um? 56 00:03:02,120 --> 00:03:04,280 Speaker 1: This president talks about reform of the UN, talks about 57 00:03:04,320 --> 00:03:07,240 Speaker 1: reform of all of these institutions, has even joked about 58 00:03:07,240 --> 00:03:09,440 Speaker 1: to Russia sending back a bunch of diplomats that's helping 59 00:03:09,440 --> 00:03:14,239 Speaker 1: the bottom line. From from from a perspective of actionable policy, 60 00:03:14,240 --> 00:03:17,000 Speaker 1: how affected. Are these institutions as a result of the 61 00:03:17,000 --> 00:03:18,679 Speaker 1: cuts that we've seen thus far or the positions that 62 00:03:18,720 --> 00:03:21,000 Speaker 1: have gone unfilmed. Well, let's understand that I don't think 63 00:03:21,040 --> 00:03:24,040 Speaker 1: Congress will stand for this, and I think many in 64 00:03:24,080 --> 00:03:27,040 Speaker 1: Congress Lindsey Graham comes to mind, many in the President's 65 00:03:27,080 --> 00:03:30,160 Speaker 1: party will restore the funding. So let's go there. But 66 00:03:30,200 --> 00:03:33,640 Speaker 1: if the seventh floor, which is the main UH floor 67 00:03:33,680 --> 00:03:36,600 Speaker 1: of senior people at the State Department, is empty, how 68 00:03:36,640 --> 00:03:39,880 Speaker 1: can Rex to listen succeed. So that's the beginning of 69 00:03:39,880 --> 00:03:42,680 Speaker 1: the of the problem. But in addition to that, UM 70 00:03:42,960 --> 00:03:47,080 Speaker 1: Jim Mattis are are very capable. Secretary Defense says that 71 00:03:47,680 --> 00:03:51,920 Speaker 1: UH military policy has to be lashed up to diplomatic 72 00:03:52,160 --> 00:03:54,680 Speaker 1: policy or whatever you want to call it for UH 73 00:03:54,880 --> 00:04:00,200 Speaker 1: non non non military policy, and without people, you can't 74 00:04:00,240 --> 00:04:04,119 Speaker 1: do it. Madam arro Space, that's what my father called you. 75 00:04:04,040 --> 00:04:08,000 Speaker 1: You you were the congresswoman of the aerospace industry. Anyone 76 00:04:08,080 --> 00:04:13,200 Speaker 1: would always say that you had a wonderful understanding of aerospace. 77 00:04:13,520 --> 00:04:18,279 Speaker 1: Are you taken back by the merger frenzy among defense 78 00:04:18,400 --> 00:04:23,159 Speaker 1: contractors and in this highly technological expertise that we have 79 00:04:23,760 --> 00:04:27,479 Speaker 1: U t X. Rockwell Collins of cedar rapids, and now 80 00:04:27,480 --> 00:04:30,920 Speaker 1: we've got Orbital Sciences being crow bought out by north Room. 81 00:04:31,080 --> 00:04:33,360 Speaker 1: Come on, it's all gonna be one big company, isn't it. 82 00:04:33,440 --> 00:04:37,679 Speaker 1: Is that what you want? Not so much. Perry, who 83 00:04:37,920 --> 00:04:40,960 Speaker 1: was an extraordinarily good Secretary of Defense back and you 84 00:04:41,000 --> 00:04:45,000 Speaker 1: know another century when Bill Clinton was president, had what 85 00:04:45,120 --> 00:04:48,080 Speaker 1: was famously called the Last Supper, and that was with 86 00:04:48,800 --> 00:04:53,520 Speaker 1: heads of defense firms. This is not a yes. And 87 00:04:53,839 --> 00:04:58,200 Speaker 1: his point was that the UH defense procurement budget is 88 00:04:58,200 --> 00:05:00,360 Speaker 1: getting smaller. We all thought there would be a piece 89 00:05:00,400 --> 00:05:03,680 Speaker 1: dividend after the end of the Cold War, but at 90 00:05:03,720 --> 00:05:07,800 Speaker 1: any rate, UH, and that these firms should consider merging UH. 91 00:05:07,839 --> 00:05:11,359 Speaker 1: And they also did consider. This was something I'm proud 92 00:05:11,400 --> 00:05:17,560 Speaker 1: of going into UH many non military activities, dual use 93 00:05:17,760 --> 00:05:21,080 Speaker 1: activities which made them stronger. So I'm not surprised to 94 00:05:21,080 --> 00:05:24,840 Speaker 1: see continued mergers. The advantages that many of these very 95 00:05:24,880 --> 00:05:27,880 Speaker 1: good firms, and Northrop is one of them, UH will 96 00:05:28,040 --> 00:05:32,560 Speaker 1: be UH good stewards of this new acquisition. The disadvantages 97 00:05:32,640 --> 00:05:36,400 Speaker 1: you lose the nimbleness and the flexibility of the smaller firms. 98 00:05:36,400 --> 00:05:39,200 Speaker 1: So I think it's a mixed bag. I'm strongly for 99 00:05:39,560 --> 00:05:42,760 Speaker 1: a strong defense, as you know, and Madam Mary's space 100 00:05:42,800 --> 00:05:48,720 Speaker 1: ain't bad. I used to call myself Boeing's mother was 101 00:05:48,760 --> 00:05:52,000 Speaker 1: out of Boulder, Colorado. They played dead like nobody. Jane 102 00:05:52,040 --> 00:05:54,680 Speaker 1: harmon with us the thirty six district, of course, at 103 00:05:54,680 --> 00:05:58,279 Speaker 1: the Woodrow Wilson Center. Now we continue, Jane, there was 104 00:05:58,320 --> 00:06:01,279 Speaker 1: that couch scene the other day, speak your Pelosi majority 105 00:06:01,400 --> 00:06:04,600 Speaker 1: leader Schumer and some other guy from the other party. 106 00:06:04,800 --> 00:06:08,960 Speaker 1: Can the Democratic Party migrate over to Jane Harman's Democratic 107 00:06:09,040 --> 00:06:12,160 Speaker 1: Party or is it going to be Clinton Pelosi forever? Well? 108 00:06:12,160 --> 00:06:14,320 Speaker 1: How's this? What's the What are the young kids gonna do? 109 00:06:14,600 --> 00:06:17,440 Speaker 1: Are they going to refine you in Scoop Jackson? Yeah? Well, 110 00:06:17,480 --> 00:06:20,000 Speaker 1: I yes, I have called myself a Scoop Jackson Democrat 111 00:06:20,040 --> 00:06:22,039 Speaker 1: for years. I actually knew him when I was a 112 00:06:22,080 --> 00:06:25,280 Speaker 1: Senate aid in the early seventies and he was he 113 00:06:25,360 --> 00:06:30,480 Speaker 1: was Boeing Senator. So from from Washington State. But yesterday 114 00:06:30,600 --> 00:06:32,920 Speaker 1: in this town there was a meeting of something called 115 00:06:32,920 --> 00:06:35,960 Speaker 1: the New Center. The New Center is an idea factory 116 00:06:36,120 --> 00:06:40,360 Speaker 1: co chaired by Bill Crystal and Bill Galston. Uh, imagine that. 117 00:06:40,800 --> 00:06:43,640 Speaker 1: And it has produced a set of ideas and I 118 00:06:43,640 --> 00:06:47,040 Speaker 1: think are very attractive to both parties. So that's out there. 119 00:06:47,200 --> 00:06:49,560 Speaker 1: Maybe it'll get traction, Maybe people will move to the 120 00:06:49,560 --> 00:06:52,040 Speaker 1: center in both parties. Okay, Secretary Clinton's out in a 121 00:06:52,080 --> 00:06:54,520 Speaker 1: book tour taking a victory lap. I guess, And we 122 00:06:54,600 --> 00:06:57,080 Speaker 1: had all the uproar last week. David gurg covered it 123 00:06:57,360 --> 00:07:02,239 Speaker 1: really well in politics. Congresswoman Harman, how do you win minute? 124 00:07:02,240 --> 00:07:04,640 Speaker 1: How do you win Michigan? How do you win Wisconsin? 125 00:07:04,880 --> 00:07:07,400 Speaker 1: How do you win the rectangle that looks like Tennessee? 126 00:07:07,720 --> 00:07:11,000 Speaker 1: That was your district east of l A. Well, I 127 00:07:11,120 --> 00:07:13,680 Speaker 1: won in a lean Republican district. Now, how did I 128 00:07:14,080 --> 00:07:16,360 Speaker 1: in my first story terms? How did I do that? 129 00:07:16,400 --> 00:07:19,520 Speaker 1: I had a vision of where we were going that 130 00:07:19,760 --> 00:07:22,920 Speaker 1: uh people bought. You got to have a vision. It's 131 00:07:22,960 --> 00:07:25,640 Speaker 1: not just that the other guy's bad. It's why you're 132 00:07:25,760 --> 00:07:28,720 Speaker 1: good when you left it. When you left the Congress, 133 00:07:29,120 --> 00:07:32,840 Speaker 1: things were i'll say, getting bad in terms of partisanship, 134 00:07:33,280 --> 00:07:35,000 Speaker 1: in terms of the ability for Congress to get things. 135 00:07:35,000 --> 00:07:37,120 Speaker 1: Then we saw another continuing resolution here kicking the can 136 00:07:37,200 --> 00:07:39,680 Speaker 1: for three months. Now, what do you say to those 137 00:07:39,680 --> 00:07:42,960 Speaker 1: who are just completely skeptical of Congress's ability to get anything? 138 00:07:42,960 --> 00:07:45,120 Speaker 1: And what's it gonna? What's it gonna bring what's gonna 139 00:07:45,160 --> 00:07:47,320 Speaker 1: bring you back to regular order in the US Congress? 140 00:07:47,360 --> 00:07:50,120 Speaker 1: Do you think, well, I believe in Congress. I did 141 00:07:50,200 --> 00:07:53,240 Speaker 1: leave because of the toxic partisanship, and I got a 142 00:07:53,240 --> 00:07:59,360 Speaker 1: better offer to be in a bipartisan, nonpartisan intellect fund. Yeah, 143 00:07:59,440 --> 00:08:02,040 Speaker 1: but not for me. It's not invest in me. It's 144 00:08:02,080 --> 00:08:07,920 Speaker 1: invested in in amazing, brilliant ideas. So which is an 145 00:08:08,000 --> 00:08:11,480 Speaker 1: easier sell, got to say. But at any rate, I 146 00:08:11,960 --> 00:08:14,679 Speaker 1: still think Congress can work. There's so many people there 147 00:08:14,880 --> 00:08:16,920 Speaker 1: who want to do the right thing in both parties 148 00:08:16,960 --> 00:08:19,120 Speaker 1: as they define it. What's wrong is the is the 149 00:08:19,160 --> 00:08:21,760 Speaker 1: business models broken U. The game is to blame the 150 00:08:21,800 --> 00:08:23,960 Speaker 1: other side for not solving the problem. If you work 151 00:08:24,080 --> 00:08:27,000 Speaker 1: with the other side, you get primaried. California has figured 152 00:08:27,000 --> 00:08:30,240 Speaker 1: out a better answer. We have UH citizen commissions to 153 00:08:30,320 --> 00:08:32,920 Speaker 1: draw lines. We have what's called a jungle primary where 154 00:08:32,920 --> 00:08:35,400 Speaker 1: everyone runs against everyone, and that way you have to 155 00:08:35,480 --> 00:08:37,680 Speaker 1: listen to other people and be open to other ideas. 156 00:08:38,040 --> 00:08:41,200 Speaker 1: There's been a tendency to fix Congress by trying to 157 00:08:41,200 --> 00:08:44,559 Speaker 1: blow it up. UH, And I wonder what you make 158 00:08:44,640 --> 00:08:46,840 Speaker 1: of the way that many elected representatives have pursued that 159 00:08:47,320 --> 00:08:50,400 Speaker 1: who has the institutional knowledge the memory, uh, to figure 160 00:08:50,400 --> 00:08:52,560 Speaker 1: out the way that the Congress works, and to to 161 00:08:52,640 --> 00:08:55,760 Speaker 1: find solutions that will actually improve the way things working. Right. Actually, 162 00:08:55,840 --> 00:08:58,280 Speaker 1: I like the last part of that question about improve 163 00:08:58,760 --> 00:09:01,720 Speaker 1: Congress has a nineteen entry committee structure. I mean, why 164 00:09:01,720 --> 00:09:04,280 Speaker 1: do we need an agriculture committee when we don't really 165 00:09:04,320 --> 00:09:08,599 Speaker 1: have a Homeland Security committee with with ample jurisdiction, uh, etcetera. 166 00:09:08,880 --> 00:09:11,400 Speaker 1: So I do think Congress has to change, and being 167 00:09:11,440 --> 00:09:14,560 Speaker 1: disruptive is not a bad thing, but being disruptive with 168 00:09:14,640 --> 00:09:17,760 Speaker 1: respect for the institution is the way it needs to happen. 169 00:09:17,920 --> 00:09:19,800 Speaker 1: We do a huge thing on STEM here. Thank you, 170 00:09:19,840 --> 00:09:24,040 Speaker 1: New Jersey Institute Technology. You're Smithy, that's the ultimate liberal 171 00:09:24,120 --> 00:09:27,480 Speaker 1: arts Massachusetts school. Tell me how if it's science in 172 00:09:27,480 --> 00:09:30,280 Speaker 1: the new curriculum, A woman of the liberal arts, how 173 00:09:30,280 --> 00:09:32,840 Speaker 1: do you fit science and math into the new liberal 174 00:09:32,960 --> 00:09:35,240 Speaker 1: arts curriculum? Boy? Was that a softball? First of all, 175 00:09:35,640 --> 00:09:38,320 Speaker 1: I applied early decision to Smith having never seen it 176 00:09:38,400 --> 00:09:41,240 Speaker 1: from public school in Los Angeles. So very cool. Uh, 177 00:09:41,400 --> 00:09:44,200 Speaker 1: it was very cool. And Smith was the first women's 178 00:09:44,240 --> 00:09:47,320 Speaker 1: college to have an engineering program and it's had it 179 00:09:47,400 --> 00:09:50,000 Speaker 1: for years, So just so you know, so it's not so, 180 00:09:50,160 --> 00:09:51,920 Speaker 1: how do we get quickly here. How do we get 181 00:09:51,960 --> 00:09:55,280 Speaker 1: women to stay in math, stay in science and do 182 00:09:55,360 --> 00:09:59,600 Speaker 1: it like the women that made Cassini I by making 183 00:09:59,600 --> 00:10:02,920 Speaker 1: it more easily available and making it cool. And you 184 00:10:03,040 --> 00:10:05,400 Speaker 1: ask about it on your program every single day, and 185 00:10:05,440 --> 00:10:08,280 Speaker 1: more women will tune in and and put mentors on 186 00:10:08,320 --> 00:10:10,439 Speaker 1: your program and they'll do it. We try to do it. 187 00:10:10,480 --> 00:10:13,720 Speaker 1: I know you're still congresswomen keep funding jp L Jane 188 00:10:13,720 --> 00:10:17,120 Speaker 1: Harmon Madam Merrow Space from California has something to do 189 00:10:17,160 --> 00:10:19,720 Speaker 1: with the school in New Jersey now as well. This 190 00:10:19,920 --> 00:10:34,720 Speaker 1: is Bloomberg Ratter joining us now in our Bloomic eleventh 191 00:10:34,720 --> 00:10:36,680 Speaker 1: three US too is the chairman of will It Advisors. 192 00:10:37,440 --> 00:10:38,880 Speaker 1: UH great to have you with us here. Let me 193 00:10:38,920 --> 00:10:42,320 Speaker 1: start just by asking you about the week ahead. Yes, 194 00:10:42,360 --> 00:10:43,959 Speaker 1: we have the FED. We also have a lot of 195 00:10:43,960 --> 00:10:45,959 Speaker 1: traffic here on the upper east side of Manhattan's the 196 00:10:46,000 --> 00:10:48,480 Speaker 1: UN General As simply gets underway. The President scheduled to 197 00:10:48,480 --> 00:10:51,959 Speaker 1: speak tomorrow before that that international body. What are you 198 00:10:52,000 --> 00:10:55,400 Speaker 1: gonna be listening for? We had a list of what 199 00:10:55,440 --> 00:10:58,760 Speaker 1: this administration is prioritizing from UH, the U S Ambassador 200 00:10:58,760 --> 00:11:00,120 Speaker 1: to the U N and from the National City. Your 201 00:11:00,200 --> 00:11:02,679 Speaker 1: advisor on Friday reform high up on the list. The 202 00:11:02,679 --> 00:11:06,160 Speaker 1: President attending a meeting about UN reform today in particularly, 203 00:11:06,160 --> 00:11:08,080 Speaker 1: what are you gonna be listening for tomorrow? Well, as 204 00:11:08,120 --> 00:11:10,640 Speaker 1: you know, there are really two Trumps. There's the there's 205 00:11:10,720 --> 00:11:16,120 Speaker 1: the more congenial, more broad, broad looking Trump, and then 206 00:11:16,160 --> 00:11:19,080 Speaker 1: there's the more of the the ugly Trump. And it 207 00:11:19,080 --> 00:11:21,319 Speaker 1: will be interesting, especially with Steve Batton gone from the 208 00:11:21,360 --> 00:11:23,520 Speaker 1: White House, to see if we get more of the 209 00:11:23,559 --> 00:11:28,520 Speaker 1: good Trump. Now, even some of of Trump's more experienced 210 00:11:28,520 --> 00:11:32,760 Speaker 1: people do favor reforming the UN, cutting what we pay 211 00:11:32,800 --> 00:11:34,920 Speaker 1: to the U and things like that. So I think 212 00:11:34,920 --> 00:11:37,160 Speaker 1: in the speech is obviously going to be presumably a 213 00:11:37,240 --> 00:11:40,439 Speaker 1: hunk about North Korea, UH, and there's going to be 214 00:11:40,480 --> 00:11:43,120 Speaker 1: a piece about how he sees the UN going forward. 215 00:11:43,160 --> 00:11:46,280 Speaker 1: He does not like multilateral institutions. I think we've learned 216 00:11:46,320 --> 00:11:49,800 Speaker 1: that about his personality, So it'll it'll be interesting. It 217 00:11:49,800 --> 00:11:51,760 Speaker 1: could be a pretty tough speech. It could be a 218 00:11:51,800 --> 00:11:55,280 Speaker 1: pretty tough speech, but I suspect he'll stay within the fairway. 219 00:11:55,640 --> 00:11:58,520 Speaker 1: How do you assess the efficacy of sanctions? We saw 220 00:11:58,559 --> 00:12:00,720 Speaker 1: the U. N Security Council apply another round of them 221 00:12:00,800 --> 00:12:04,680 Speaker 1: last week on North Korea. There's talk perhaps of Moore. 222 00:12:05,120 --> 00:12:08,000 Speaker 1: We've had them in North Korea, on Venezuela, on Russia, 223 00:12:08,000 --> 00:12:09,840 Speaker 1: on a number of other countries. How do you know 224 00:12:09,880 --> 00:12:13,280 Speaker 1: if they're working? They I think sanctions at best take 225 00:12:13,320 --> 00:12:15,160 Speaker 1: a long time to work. You can go further back 226 00:12:15,200 --> 00:12:17,280 Speaker 1: in history and you look at Rhodija, you can look 227 00:12:17,280 --> 00:12:20,520 Speaker 1: at Cuba, you can look at Iran. Uh You're talking 228 00:12:20,520 --> 00:12:22,800 Speaker 1: about things that take decades and may then even have 229 00:12:22,880 --> 00:12:24,559 Speaker 1: no effect, and then at some point you just decide 230 00:12:24,640 --> 00:12:28,080 Speaker 1: unwind them. But look, we have a limited toolbox of 231 00:12:28,240 --> 00:12:31,640 Speaker 1: things we can do about North Korea short of military activity, 232 00:12:31,679 --> 00:12:33,760 Speaker 1: which I don't think anybody thinks is a good idea, 233 00:12:34,320 --> 00:12:37,120 Speaker 1: And sanctions are simply are simply one part of it. 234 00:12:37,160 --> 00:12:39,520 Speaker 1: And I think I would give the President and Nicky 235 00:12:39,600 --> 00:12:41,959 Speaker 1: Heilly in particular high marks for getting a fifteen to 236 00:12:42,040 --> 00:12:44,880 Speaker 1: nothing vote on a set of sanctions. And I think 237 00:12:45,040 --> 00:12:47,200 Speaker 1: I think if you take out Trump or Trump has said, 238 00:12:47,240 --> 00:12:50,160 Speaker 1: somewhat Trump has said and most of his tweets, the 239 00:12:50,200 --> 00:12:53,320 Speaker 1: actual things that are being said by Rex Tillison and 240 00:12:53,360 --> 00:12:56,000 Speaker 1: Nikki Hilly yesterday on the Sunday shows the way. It's 241 00:12:56,520 --> 00:12:59,040 Speaker 1: the way the professionals are handling this is actually I 242 00:12:59,080 --> 00:13:01,679 Speaker 1: think about as good as it gets. But there is 243 00:13:01,720 --> 00:13:04,400 Speaker 1: the green marble of the u N. There is something 244 00:13:04,440 --> 00:13:08,640 Speaker 1: about walking into that time warp of middle sixties architecture 245 00:13:09,360 --> 00:13:12,680 Speaker 1: and walking into that Assembly hall. I'm assuming he's never 246 00:13:12,760 --> 00:13:15,120 Speaker 1: done that. He's going to go up there against that 247 00:13:15,240 --> 00:13:18,960 Speaker 1: green marble and act at what ecumenical? Is that the 248 00:13:19,040 --> 00:13:21,840 Speaker 1: right word? I mean, what if somebody pops off and 249 00:13:21,880 --> 00:13:25,560 Speaker 1: says something, What if like somebody who's kind of somebody 250 00:13:25,640 --> 00:13:29,040 Speaker 1: puts some you know, do you think he's gonna stay 251 00:13:29,040 --> 00:13:32,880 Speaker 1: on message? I think he is going to stay on message. 252 00:13:32,880 --> 00:13:35,440 Speaker 1: I just don't know what the message is, right. And 253 00:13:35,480 --> 00:13:40,079 Speaker 1: the Secretary Tillison's showing up, I assume. So every Secretary 254 00:13:40,120 --> 00:13:42,520 Speaker 1: of State in history has been at the UN General 255 00:13:42,559 --> 00:13:45,360 Speaker 1: Assembly week as far as I know, I assume. So Look, 256 00:13:45,440 --> 00:13:48,480 Speaker 1: my my guess is that you will get. My guess 257 00:13:48,559 --> 00:13:50,960 Speaker 1: is that he will get a measure Trump who will 258 00:13:51,000 --> 00:13:53,440 Speaker 1: be tough about the u N and say that there 259 00:13:53,440 --> 00:13:55,960 Speaker 1: should be changes and it's not as effective as it 260 00:13:56,040 --> 00:13:59,520 Speaker 1: should be, etcetera, etcetera. And I think he'll be tough 261 00:13:59,559 --> 00:14:01,800 Speaker 1: on North Korea, but I think he will stay inside 262 00:14:01,840 --> 00:14:06,320 Speaker 1: the fairway in terms of talk. And I'm not even 263 00:14:06,320 --> 00:14:07,880 Speaker 1: a Golfer. But I think it will stay in the 264 00:14:07,880 --> 00:14:10,439 Speaker 1: fairway in terms of the kinds of things. He says, 265 00:14:11,400 --> 00:14:13,120 Speaker 1: I believe President She's not going to be here play 266 00:14:13,160 --> 00:14:15,000 Speaker 1: President Putin is not going to be here as well. 267 00:14:15,120 --> 00:14:16,880 Speaker 1: How much a vacuum does that leave? I mean, I 268 00:14:16,880 --> 00:14:19,440 Speaker 1: think of of of the two countries on this globe 269 00:14:19,480 --> 00:14:21,800 Speaker 1: that have the largest impact on a number of these 270 00:14:21,800 --> 00:14:25,360 Speaker 1: big issues, be that North Korea or Syria. Uh, is 271 00:14:25,360 --> 00:14:28,560 Speaker 1: it going to be a hindrance to actual things getting 272 00:14:28,560 --> 00:14:30,480 Speaker 1: done by them not being here in New York? Yes? 273 00:14:30,480 --> 00:14:32,600 Speaker 1: And no. I think obviously in the modern world there's 274 00:14:32,640 --> 00:14:35,240 Speaker 1: certainly communications back and forth with their people that will 275 00:14:35,280 --> 00:14:37,960 Speaker 1: allow things to happen. But but I think it does. 276 00:14:38,120 --> 00:14:41,080 Speaker 1: I think we do lose something because I think I 277 00:14:41,160 --> 00:14:44,680 Speaker 1: think having our president have a chance to bilaterals with 278 00:14:44,800 --> 00:14:47,680 Speaker 1: Putin with g is an important part of trying to 279 00:14:47,760 --> 00:14:52,600 Speaker 1: diplomatically move the world forward. God, twelve seconds left left? 280 00:14:52,880 --> 00:14:55,920 Speaker 1: Long time? Can you own an Apple? Here? We've had 281 00:14:56,000 --> 00:14:58,240 Speaker 1: really different a different set of opinions over the list, 282 00:14:59,560 --> 00:15:04,960 Speaker 1: that's what. Yeah. I have never owned Apple, not because 283 00:15:05,000 --> 00:15:07,280 Speaker 1: I don't like the company and obviously been wrong. I 284 00:15:07,320 --> 00:15:10,080 Speaker 1: think I think they've done a great job I think 285 00:15:10,120 --> 00:15:13,560 Speaker 1: that I think the existential question for Apple is what 286 00:15:13,760 --> 00:15:16,560 Speaker 1: is the next act? And as Tim Cook able to 287 00:15:16,560 --> 00:15:19,160 Speaker 1: produce it? You know, Steve Jobs, if you just think 288 00:15:19,200 --> 00:15:21,600 Speaker 1: back to when Steve when this thing made, When when 289 00:15:21,640 --> 00:15:23,560 Speaker 1: Apple made some computers and that was kind of it, 290 00:15:23,560 --> 00:15:25,480 Speaker 1: and Steve Jobs said well, We're gonna make a phone, 291 00:15:25,960 --> 00:15:28,240 Speaker 1: and every said what And the phone is now over 292 00:15:28,320 --> 00:15:31,040 Speaker 1: half the business, as you know, and the iPad and 293 00:15:31,080 --> 00:15:33,400 Speaker 1: the Apple TV and the I Watch and all of 294 00:15:33,400 --> 00:15:36,160 Speaker 1: the others now and now all the media stuff. The 295 00:15:36,240 --> 00:15:40,240 Speaker 1: question really is, can Tim Cook produced an innovation on 296 00:15:40,280 --> 00:15:42,680 Speaker 1: the scale of the kinds of things Steve Jobs did 297 00:15:42,960 --> 00:15:46,320 Speaker 1: that really transform the company? Steve Wrotner, thank you so 298 00:15:46,400 --> 00:15:49,560 Speaker 1: much for you in perspective. How do you get around town? 299 00:15:51,960 --> 00:15:55,600 Speaker 1: I do a lot of walking guy a helicopter. I 300 00:15:55,960 --> 00:15:57,880 Speaker 1: I try not to go a little sixtieth Street and 301 00:15:57,920 --> 00:16:00,480 Speaker 1: I do a lot of walking. You would be at 302 00:16:00,480 --> 00:16:03,000 Speaker 1: Steve Wrenner, thank you so much. As Willow Advisors should 303 00:16:03,080 --> 00:16:07,040 Speaker 1: point out an investment advisor to Michael Bloomberg, the principal 304 00:16:07,040 --> 00:16:09,600 Speaker 1: owner of the company and also of course owner of 305 00:16:09,640 --> 00:16:24,080 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio as well, Alan Krueger here in Bloomberg eleven 306 00:16:24,080 --> 00:16:26,160 Speaker 1: three US to the professor of Economics and Public Policy 307 00:16:26,480 --> 00:16:28,720 Speaker 1: at Princeton, former chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors 308 00:16:28,800 --> 00:16:31,960 Speaker 1: under President Obama. This this week, the President has proclaimed 309 00:16:31,960 --> 00:16:35,800 Speaker 1: this week to be Prescription Opioid and Heroin Epidemic Awareness Week. 310 00:16:36,400 --> 00:16:39,200 Speaker 1: He's talked about opio addiction the problem of it in 311 00:16:39,200 --> 00:16:41,480 Speaker 1: this country a few times. I don't think he's gone 312 00:16:41,520 --> 00:16:43,520 Speaker 1: so for US to declared a national emergency yet, but 313 00:16:43,520 --> 00:16:45,920 Speaker 1: it is certainly indicated that might be that might be coming. 314 00:16:46,480 --> 00:16:48,480 Speaker 1: We talked about it in a social context, help us 315 00:16:48,480 --> 00:16:50,720 Speaker 1: frame it in an economic context. How big an issue 316 00:16:50,800 --> 00:16:53,440 Speaker 1: is this for the US at this point? Well, I 317 00:16:53,480 --> 00:16:56,320 Speaker 1: give the President credit for talking about the issue. I 318 00:16:56,360 --> 00:16:59,560 Speaker 1: think it's important that we also take some concrete actions, 319 00:16:59,840 --> 00:17:01,840 Speaker 1: and I was hoping that the commission that he set 320 00:17:01,920 --> 00:17:05,000 Speaker 1: up would make proposals to try to reduce the crisis. 321 00:17:05,800 --> 00:17:10,119 Speaker 1: I've been doing research on how the spread of opioid 322 00:17:10,200 --> 00:17:14,200 Speaker 1: use has been affecting labor force participation, and as you know, David, 323 00:17:14,240 --> 00:17:16,600 Speaker 1: we have a problem of low labor force participation in 324 00:17:16,600 --> 00:17:19,439 Speaker 1: the US that's run into the opioid crisis. And I 325 00:17:19,480 --> 00:17:22,440 Speaker 1: think those two problems are now intertwined. When I look 326 00:17:22,480 --> 00:17:26,600 Speaker 1: at prime age men, UM, I find that almost half 327 00:17:26,600 --> 00:17:30,520 Speaker 1: for taking pain medication every day. Two thirds of those 328 00:17:30,840 --> 00:17:34,399 Speaker 1: people are taking prescription medication. And a new study I 329 00:17:34,440 --> 00:17:37,280 Speaker 1: have that I just presented at the Brookings Institution last week, 330 00:17:37,280 --> 00:17:41,280 Speaker 1: I found that areas of the country where more opioid 331 00:17:41,320 --> 00:17:44,440 Speaker 1: medication is being prescribed have seen bigger decline in labor 332 00:17:44,480 --> 00:17:48,320 Speaker 1: force participation. Of course, there could be other factors behind that, 333 00:17:48,359 --> 00:17:51,040 Speaker 1: but from what I can tell, this is possibly depressed 334 00:17:51,920 --> 00:17:54,920 Speaker 1: UM the participation rate by more than half a percentage 335 00:17:54,920 --> 00:17:58,000 Speaker 1: point for prime age men. Again, we're talking about the 336 00:17:58,080 --> 00:18:00,359 Speaker 1: through the economic factors here. When you look at the 337 00:18:00,600 --> 00:18:03,080 Speaker 1: conversation about this issue in particular, how much dialogue has 338 00:18:03,080 --> 00:18:08,720 Speaker 1: there been among economists and social scientists and addiction specialists 339 00:18:08,720 --> 00:18:11,199 Speaker 1: and medical doctors. You mentioned the commission that the President established. 340 00:18:11,240 --> 00:18:12,720 Speaker 1: I don't think that there was a medical doctor on 341 00:18:12,760 --> 00:18:16,400 Speaker 1: that committee of four or five individuals. Are you satisfied 342 00:18:16,400 --> 00:18:18,520 Speaker 1: as you look into this that the kind of dialogue 343 00:18:18,520 --> 00:18:21,280 Speaker 1: we need to have is taking place, incorporating your economics 344 00:18:21,280 --> 00:18:24,840 Speaker 1: with the medical side of this issue as well. There's 345 00:18:24,880 --> 00:18:28,160 Speaker 1: a lot of fascinating research that's being done. UM. Some 346 00:18:28,240 --> 00:18:30,760 Speaker 1: of the results quite depressing. I'll tell you an example. 347 00:18:30,800 --> 00:18:33,480 Speaker 1: I have a colleague, Janet Curry, who has a study 348 00:18:33,520 --> 00:18:38,160 Speaker 1: which finds that doctors who attended lower ranked medical schools 349 00:18:38,480 --> 00:18:41,840 Speaker 1: are more likely to prescribe opioid medication, looking within the 350 00:18:41,920 --> 00:18:46,080 Speaker 1: same county, looking within the same field as specialty. Um. 351 00:18:46,240 --> 00:18:49,239 Speaker 1: So I think there's fascinating research that's being done. I 352 00:18:49,280 --> 00:18:53,640 Speaker 1: haven't seen much interest from policymakers yet. Alan Krueger were 353 00:18:53,640 --> 00:18:56,080 Speaker 1: this folks, And again, as we like to do from 354 00:18:56,080 --> 00:18:58,480 Speaker 1: time to time, particularly with someone with a reach of professor, 355 00:18:58,520 --> 00:19:01,520 Speaker 1: Krueger has moved away from the usual, which is jobs 356 00:19:01,520 --> 00:19:04,600 Speaker 1: in the economy, to his important work of Brooking's paper 357 00:19:04,720 --> 00:19:09,240 Speaker 1: Run Opioid and and such. Um, there's some wonderful first 358 00:19:09,320 --> 00:19:12,520 Speaker 1: order difference equations within your report, and maybe even so 359 00:19:12,680 --> 00:19:16,000 Speaker 1: an oiler function because we're not quite sure. There's lambda's 360 00:19:16,160 --> 00:19:19,679 Speaker 1: and other Greek letters. What the public wants to know 361 00:19:20,000 --> 00:19:23,960 Speaker 1: is Horse and Kurt, which is almost economics one oh one. 362 00:19:24,800 --> 00:19:29,720 Speaker 1: Do the drugs cause the unemployment or does the unemployment 363 00:19:30,240 --> 00:19:34,680 Speaker 1: cause the drugs? Well, that's an excellent question. And I 364 00:19:34,760 --> 00:19:36,639 Speaker 1: appreciate Ton that you have a copy of my study 365 00:19:36,760 --> 00:19:42,399 Speaker 1: right next to you. I really appreciate that. And you 366 00:19:42,480 --> 00:19:43,919 Speaker 1: cut right to the heart of the matter. So I 367 00:19:43,960 --> 00:19:46,280 Speaker 1: appreciate that. You know, I think the arrows point in 368 00:19:46,320 --> 00:19:51,200 Speaker 1: both directions, and in certain level, the initial causality is 369 00:19:51,280 --> 00:19:54,040 Speaker 1: less important than the reality that this is a problem 370 00:19:54,040 --> 00:19:56,399 Speaker 1: that needs to be addressed. This is so important. You nailed, 371 00:19:56,720 --> 00:20:00,760 Speaker 1: You go right. It goes in both directions, But political 372 00:20:00,880 --> 00:20:04,479 Speaker 1: discourse is no, it goes in this direction, and the 373 00:20:04,480 --> 00:20:07,480 Speaker 1: other side says no, it goes in that direction. Can 374 00:20:07,480 --> 00:20:10,639 Speaker 1: we get compromise on the couch in the Oval Office 375 00:20:10,720 --> 00:20:14,040 Speaker 1: on opioids and drug addiction? This heroin epidemic that we 376 00:20:14,119 --> 00:20:18,439 Speaker 1: have no I think there is widespread agreement that this 377 00:20:18,520 --> 00:20:20,600 Speaker 1: is a significant problem, and I think that came out 378 00:20:20,640 --> 00:20:25,280 Speaker 1: in the presidential election. Um, there's been very little discussion 379 00:20:25,320 --> 00:20:26,600 Speaker 1: about what to do it about it. I mean, let 380 00:20:26,640 --> 00:20:27,919 Speaker 1: me give you another example time. And one of the 381 00:20:27,920 --> 00:20:30,760 Speaker 1: findings in that in that Brooking study is that three 382 00:20:30,840 --> 00:20:36,240 Speaker 1: quarters of the prescription pain medication that man a rather 383 00:20:36,280 --> 00:20:39,600 Speaker 1: the labor force are taking is being paid for by Medicaid, 384 00:20:39,680 --> 00:20:44,520 Speaker 1: Medicare or Veterans Administration program. So the government does have 385 00:20:44,640 --> 00:20:49,040 Speaker 1: levers to try to influence the initial prescription, and that 386 00:20:49,320 --> 00:20:51,280 Speaker 1: does seem to be a source of a lot of 387 00:20:51,280 --> 00:20:53,840 Speaker 1: the addiction. Even if people move to illegal drugs, it 388 00:20:53,880 --> 00:20:57,640 Speaker 1: seems that they're addiction is starting with prescription medication. That's 389 00:20:57,640 --> 00:20:59,520 Speaker 1: such a good point. And on the subject of a 390 00:20:59,560 --> 00:21:02,160 Speaker 1: legal us, I mean there's another economics issue here as well, 391 00:21:02,240 --> 00:21:04,960 Speaker 1: which is just the relative cheapness of a lot of 392 00:21:05,000 --> 00:21:07,120 Speaker 1: these drugs. They're easier to get, and they're they're less 393 00:21:07,119 --> 00:21:10,320 Speaker 1: expensive as well. Well. That's part of the problem. The 394 00:21:10,359 --> 00:21:13,800 Speaker 1: New York Times had an article today about insurance companies 395 00:21:13,840 --> 00:21:18,840 Speaker 1: being reluctant to prescribe more expensive but less addictive pain medication. Uh. 396 00:21:18,840 --> 00:21:21,439 Speaker 1: And that comes down to economics, and I don't think 397 00:21:21,480 --> 00:21:24,359 Speaker 1: the insurance companies are taking full account of the cost 398 00:21:24,440 --> 00:21:27,560 Speaker 1: of the externalities of having over thirty thousand people a 399 00:21:27,640 --> 00:21:30,560 Speaker 1: year or die from opioid abuse. We are our parents 400 00:21:30,760 --> 00:21:34,040 Speaker 1: lectured us on heroin. It's what they were afraid of, 401 00:21:34,800 --> 00:21:36,720 Speaker 1: and it was all you know within the culture and 402 00:21:36,760 --> 00:21:41,320 Speaker 1: the music. This is completely removed from the drug culture 403 00:21:41,920 --> 00:21:46,359 Speaker 1: of twenty or fifty or a hundred years ago. And 404 00:21:46,400 --> 00:21:50,320 Speaker 1: it's almost an economic discussion, isn't it about fenl or 405 00:21:50,359 --> 00:21:53,680 Speaker 1: whatever it is. It's they're cheap and it's am I right, 406 00:21:53,800 --> 00:21:56,919 Speaker 1: It's just there, it's they're cheap, it's highly addictive, and 407 00:21:56,920 --> 00:22:00,600 Speaker 1: it's very powerful, and it's there and it's available. It's available. 408 00:22:01,240 --> 00:22:05,639 Speaker 1: Isn't that fixable? You know, this problem is almost unique 409 00:22:05,640 --> 00:22:07,280 Speaker 1: to the US. You look at the rest of the world, 410 00:22:07,280 --> 00:22:08,919 Speaker 1: They're not going through this type of how do you 411 00:22:08,960 --> 00:22:11,000 Speaker 1: fix it? Give me the gimme after the first order 412 00:22:11,040 --> 00:22:14,200 Speaker 1: difference equations. What's the Kruger solution? Well, I think there's 413 00:22:14,200 --> 00:22:16,879 Speaker 1: some obvious solutions. In some states have started with this 414 00:22:17,640 --> 00:22:20,200 Speaker 1: limit the number of pills that compete, that people get 415 00:22:20,240 --> 00:22:23,600 Speaker 1: the initial prescription, make them come back and see medical profession, 416 00:22:23,880 --> 00:22:28,040 Speaker 1: professional doctors. I think the medical profession bears a lot 417 00:22:28,040 --> 00:22:30,880 Speaker 1: of responsibility. And you go to Manchester, New Hampshire, which 418 00:22:30,920 --> 00:22:33,239 Speaker 1: I guess its ground zero in New Hampshire. Do you 419 00:22:33,280 --> 00:22:36,040 Speaker 1: blame the doctors? Do you blame the hospital? Do you 420 00:22:36,119 --> 00:22:39,120 Speaker 1: blame Raytheon for pulling their business out forty years ago? 421 00:22:39,160 --> 00:22:43,080 Speaker 1: I mean, where's the Kruger blame here? Well, you know, Tom, 422 00:22:43,080 --> 00:22:49,280 Speaker 1: I'm focused on solutions, not on blames. So I think 423 00:22:49,320 --> 00:22:50,800 Speaker 1: what we should do is say, how do we solve 424 00:22:50,840 --> 00:22:53,480 Speaker 1: this problem? Figuring out an assigning blame when there's plenty 425 00:22:53,520 --> 00:22:56,600 Speaker 1: of blame to go around is not terribly helpful. Is 426 00:22:56,640 --> 00:22:59,440 Speaker 1: this something? When you were cheering the Council of Economic Advisor, 427 00:22:59,480 --> 00:23:01,520 Speaker 1: you would have these the access to somebody at DHS. 428 00:23:01,520 --> 00:23:03,280 Speaker 1: In other words, how hard is it to get all 429 00:23:03,320 --> 00:23:06,480 Speaker 1: of the parties within public policy to the table, to 430 00:23:06,520 --> 00:23:08,800 Speaker 1: get folks heading up different agencies to meet with the 431 00:23:08,800 --> 00:23:10,880 Speaker 1: White House to to work on these kinds of solutions. 432 00:23:11,359 --> 00:23:13,760 Speaker 1: That's not hard at all. What the government is great 433 00:23:13,800 --> 00:23:17,120 Speaker 1: at his meetings? Uh? What I found when I worked 434 00:23:17,160 --> 00:23:20,160 Speaker 1: for President Obama at the Treasury Department at the White House. 435 00:23:20,440 --> 00:23:23,080 Speaker 1: Government is great at meetings, good at talking, good at listening. 436 00:23:24,200 --> 00:23:27,560 Speaker 1: Action is more difficult, and particularly the action requires Congress. 437 00:23:27,640 --> 00:23:29,159 Speaker 1: We've been talking around this a little bit here, but 438 00:23:29,640 --> 00:23:31,640 Speaker 1: tell us just what data you looked at. How difficult 439 00:23:31,680 --> 00:23:33,800 Speaker 1: is it to come by data on this subject of 440 00:23:33,800 --> 00:23:38,080 Speaker 1: opioid addiction in particular? I started using a survey called 441 00:23:38,080 --> 00:23:40,600 Speaker 1: the American Time Youth Survey, which is a real gem. 442 00:23:40,720 --> 00:23:43,399 Speaker 1: It's collected by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and it 443 00:23:43,520 --> 00:23:46,920 Speaker 1: had a supplement which I helped frankly to design, which 444 00:23:47,040 --> 00:23:50,240 Speaker 1: asked people about their experience with pain and whether they 445 00:23:50,240 --> 00:23:52,919 Speaker 1: took pain medication on the previous day, and when I 446 00:23:52,960 --> 00:23:55,359 Speaker 1: started the study, I didn't expect to find what I found. 447 00:23:55,760 --> 00:23:59,960 Speaker 1: You know, that survey found that in two thousand and third, 448 00:24:00,080 --> 00:24:06,960 Speaker 1: teen of prime age men to fifty four who were 449 00:24:07,000 --> 00:24:09,760 Speaker 1: not working, not looking for a job, took pain medication 450 00:24:11,080 --> 00:24:13,399 Speaker 1: on the day of the survey. And I didn't know 451 00:24:13,480 --> 00:24:15,560 Speaker 1: maybe it was aspirin. You know, you feel differently if 452 00:24:15,560 --> 00:24:19,320 Speaker 1: it's aspirin. So I did a survey myself where we 453 00:24:19,440 --> 00:24:23,119 Speaker 1: identified about six men who were not in the labor force, 454 00:24:23,440 --> 00:24:27,639 Speaker 1: same age group. We found that of them had taken 455 00:24:27,760 --> 00:24:31,800 Speaker 1: pain medication. Two thirds of that group took prescription pain medication. 456 00:24:32,160 --> 00:24:35,399 Speaker 1: And then I dug deeper in that survey. The c 457 00:24:35,520 --> 00:24:39,080 Speaker 1: d C does a survey on people's experience with pain 458 00:24:39,160 --> 00:24:43,320 Speaker 1: over time. It's a very big sample, uh Amazingly. One 459 00:24:43,359 --> 00:24:47,400 Speaker 1: of the things that data shows is that pain has 460 00:24:47,480 --> 00:24:49,600 Speaker 1: not been declining. In spite of the fact that we've 461 00:24:49,600 --> 00:24:52,639 Speaker 1: almost quadrupled the amount of opioids that are being prescribed. 462 00:24:53,359 --> 00:24:55,239 Speaker 1: Pain for men or out of the labor force has 463 00:24:55,240 --> 00:24:57,840 Speaker 1: actually been gradually rising over time. And I think there's 464 00:24:57,840 --> 00:25:00,960 Speaker 1: a lot of other evidence that suggests that this treatment 465 00:25:01,000 --> 00:25:04,639 Speaker 1: is not working. Um. So I used a variety of 466 00:25:04,720 --> 00:25:07,119 Speaker 1: data but those are the main sources. I ask you 467 00:25:07,160 --> 00:25:10,240 Speaker 1: just about the role economics can play in solving or 468 00:25:10,320 --> 00:25:14,080 Speaker 1: leading to a solution for social crises like these. As 469 00:25:14,119 --> 00:25:16,399 Speaker 1: Tom was saying before we went to break um, this 470 00:25:16,480 --> 00:25:19,400 Speaker 1: is something I think more people are talking about. Unfortunately, 471 00:25:19,440 --> 00:25:22,399 Speaker 1: I think more people have experience with looking back at 472 00:25:22,400 --> 00:25:24,119 Speaker 1: the history of of of economics and the way that 473 00:25:24,119 --> 00:25:27,280 Speaker 1: it can influence discourse and conversation about issues like these. 474 00:25:27,640 --> 00:25:29,719 Speaker 1: What's the role of economics in a conversation about hope 475 00:25:29,760 --> 00:25:32,480 Speaker 1: we had addiction in this country? Well, I think economics 476 00:25:32,520 --> 00:25:35,479 Speaker 1: has an important role to playing, frankly, in all policy issues. 477 00:25:36,160 --> 00:25:37,639 Speaker 1: I don't think it should be the only voice at 478 00:25:37,640 --> 00:25:40,480 Speaker 1: the table, but I think it's an important vote, important voice. 479 00:25:40,800 --> 00:25:43,560 Speaker 1: And in economics, we tend to think about incentives. You know, 480 00:25:43,600 --> 00:25:46,680 Speaker 1: we we were pretty good at at at calculating costs, 481 00:25:47,520 --> 00:25:50,600 Speaker 1: and we're pretty good at considering incentives. People don't always 482 00:25:50,600 --> 00:25:53,320 Speaker 1: respond the way we think they should respond, but we 483 00:25:53,359 --> 00:25:55,479 Speaker 1: can think about what the economic incentives are. And I 484 00:25:55,520 --> 00:25:59,720 Speaker 1: think this crisis is in part a result of economic incentives. 485 00:25:59,800 --> 00:26:03,560 Speaker 1: It's in part a result of uh economic weakness and 486 00:26:03,680 --> 00:26:07,159 Speaker 1: for three decades having a hollowing out of the middle class, 487 00:26:07,760 --> 00:26:10,000 Speaker 1: and I think it's in part a result of incentives 488 00:26:10,000 --> 00:26:13,200 Speaker 1: in the health field. Tom mentioned Manchester, New Hampshire is 489 00:26:13,280 --> 00:26:17,000 Speaker 1: certently affecting some local communities more acutely than others. Although 490 00:26:17,000 --> 00:26:18,520 Speaker 1: I would say with it with a broad brush, it's 491 00:26:18,560 --> 00:26:20,480 Speaker 1: it's happening across the country. When you look at this 492 00:26:20,520 --> 00:26:23,040 Speaker 1: on a regional basis, are there places who have it 493 00:26:23,080 --> 00:26:26,760 Speaker 1: worse than others? Absolutely? You know, if you look at 494 00:26:26,880 --> 00:26:32,560 Speaker 1: prescription UH opioid medication and you compare the top temper 495 00:26:32,600 --> 00:26:34,520 Speaker 1: cent and the bottom temper cent across America, it's a 496 00:26:34,520 --> 00:26:38,919 Speaker 1: factor of thirty to one. So uh, I don't think 497 00:26:38,960 --> 00:26:42,080 Speaker 1: there's any way that pain varies by thirty to one 498 00:26:42,119 --> 00:26:44,840 Speaker 1: across counties. Um as best I could tell, it doesn't 499 00:26:44,880 --> 00:26:47,600 Speaker 1: vary by anything like that. So I think the medical 500 00:26:47,640 --> 00:26:50,720 Speaker 1: profession practices, and we find this across medicine in many 501 00:26:50,720 --> 00:26:52,800 Speaker 1: different fields. If you look at herne operations, if you 502 00:26:52,880 --> 00:26:57,040 Speaker 1: look at cines arian sections, they're big variability. There's very 503 00:26:57,040 --> 00:27:02,120 Speaker 1: big variability across regions. The Krueger style is rigid, rigorous 504 00:27:02,240 --> 00:27:05,600 Speaker 1: economics and Matthew nous and then you will have a 505 00:27:05,640 --> 00:27:08,960 Speaker 1: paragraph that you parachute in with and here you quote 506 00:27:09,000 --> 00:27:11,679 Speaker 1: Hillbilly elogy all the rage right now. J D. Vance, 507 00:27:12,359 --> 00:27:16,919 Speaker 1: you quote Rick and Jackson, Kentucky, and you Crow's case. 508 00:27:17,160 --> 00:27:21,000 Speaker 1: You quote Case Dton Angustaton the laureate. Uh and in 509 00:27:21,200 --> 00:27:24,440 Speaker 1: case doing better than good on the depth of the 510 00:27:24,480 --> 00:27:28,600 Speaker 1: deaths of despair. Okay, So there's a medical community and 511 00:27:28,600 --> 00:27:32,360 Speaker 1: there's a fancy pants medical community. Is this about second 512 00:27:32,480 --> 00:27:36,640 Speaker 1: rate doctors are the doctor's victim of the incentives? How 513 00:27:36,680 --> 00:27:41,480 Speaker 1: do you blame the physicians um prescribing the medicines for 514 00:27:41,520 --> 00:27:46,000 Speaker 1: the deaths of despair? Well, I think some of it's 515 00:27:46,000 --> 00:27:48,840 Speaker 1: seen scentives for the doctors think they don't have enough 516 00:27:48,840 --> 00:27:52,000 Speaker 1: time to properly treat many of their patients. Sometimes there 517 00:27:52,040 --> 00:27:54,240 Speaker 1: and so come on there and it's like sixty minutes 518 00:27:54,320 --> 00:27:57,399 Speaker 1: last night. Basically it's a drug commercial with Steve Croft 519 00:27:57,400 --> 00:28:01,120 Speaker 1: wrapped around it. Come on, these guys are are incentivized 520 00:28:01,160 --> 00:28:03,520 Speaker 1: to move drugs, right am? I right? That was gonna 521 00:28:03,560 --> 00:28:06,320 Speaker 1: be my next sentence. Uh, they're incentives pushed them in 522 00:28:06,400 --> 00:28:10,440 Speaker 1: this direction. Um. So I don't think they're necessarily bad people, 523 00:28:10,480 --> 00:28:12,600 Speaker 1: but I think many are responding to the incentives. They 524 00:28:12,640 --> 00:28:16,600 Speaker 1: phase pivot here and just ask a few questions about 525 00:28:16,600 --> 00:28:18,520 Speaker 1: and leading up to this meeting, that's FED meeting this week. 526 00:28:18,880 --> 00:28:22,800 Speaker 1: Earlier in the show, I was saying, real economics, we 527 00:28:22,840 --> 00:28:25,359 Speaker 1: could just to close things up. But uh, we were 528 00:28:25,359 --> 00:28:27,040 Speaker 1: talking earlier in the show just about the focus that 529 00:28:27,080 --> 00:28:29,080 Speaker 1: we've had on inflation in this country in particular, it 530 00:28:29,080 --> 00:28:31,480 Speaker 1: seems like we've talked less about the labor market as 531 00:28:31,480 --> 00:28:33,440 Speaker 1: a result of that. Certainly the FED is grappling with 532 00:28:33,440 --> 00:28:36,280 Speaker 1: with both, although it seems like increasingly the part we're 533 00:28:36,280 --> 00:28:39,600 Speaker 1: focused on on its inflation. How does the labor market 534 00:28:39,640 --> 00:28:41,400 Speaker 1: look to you at this point? How concerned are you 535 00:28:41,440 --> 00:28:43,600 Speaker 1: about slack? How concerned do you think this feed is 536 00:28:43,640 --> 00:28:46,520 Speaker 1: about where the labor market is at this point? Well, 537 00:28:46,640 --> 00:28:48,320 Speaker 1: what I say is there's a lot of slack, but 538 00:28:48,360 --> 00:28:52,920 Speaker 1: it's not effective slack. So eleven and a half percent 539 00:28:53,000 --> 00:28:54,880 Speaker 1: of prime age men are not in the labor force. 540 00:28:54,920 --> 00:28:58,400 Speaker 1: That's certainly slack. It's not effective in the sense that 541 00:28:59,280 --> 00:29:00,960 Speaker 1: they're not all that likely to come back to the 542 00:29:01,040 --> 00:29:03,400 Speaker 1: labor force even if the economy picks up. And I 543 00:29:03,400 --> 00:29:05,480 Speaker 1: think it is related to the opioid crisis that we've 544 00:29:05,520 --> 00:29:11,800 Speaker 1: been discussing. Um So I think the problems are connected. Obviously, 545 00:29:11,880 --> 00:29:14,880 Speaker 1: given that the surprise on the low side and inflation 546 00:29:14,960 --> 00:29:17,760 Speaker 1: the last six months has taken a lot of people 547 00:29:18,400 --> 00:29:22,480 Speaker 1: by surprise. UM. I think that does deserve a trend, 548 00:29:22,480 --> 00:29:24,840 Speaker 1: this amount of attention. The last cp I picked up 549 00:29:24,840 --> 00:29:27,080 Speaker 1: a bit. I think that will give give analysts a 550 00:29:27,080 --> 00:29:29,720 Speaker 1: lot to chew over um and there'll be more a 551 00:29:29,760 --> 00:29:33,120 Speaker 1: lot more information coming in December on the opioid issue. 552 00:29:33,120 --> 00:29:35,040 Speaker 1: And and that percent of the workforce, that second of 553 00:29:35,080 --> 00:29:37,360 Speaker 1: the workforce you're talking about. This FED must be as 554 00:29:37,360 --> 00:29:39,920 Speaker 1: flummixed as everyone from a policy perspective about this issue. 555 00:29:40,520 --> 00:29:42,800 Speaker 1: How tighter its hands, how tighter FED policy makers hands 556 00:29:42,800 --> 00:29:46,760 Speaker 1: when it comes to dealing with this, this crisis in particular. Well, 557 00:29:46,800 --> 00:29:50,560 Speaker 1: I think this is beyond the FEDS, UM, But it's 558 00:29:50,560 --> 00:29:53,760 Speaker 1: a crisis that they're focused on. Janet Yellenside in the 559 00:29:53,800 --> 00:29:56,960 Speaker 1: opioid crisis and testimony a couple of months. Have they 560 00:29:57,000 --> 00:29:59,960 Speaker 1: acknowledged it enough? Do you think? Um? I think it's 561 00:30:00,000 --> 00:30:02,720 Speaker 1: something they're aware of. I haven't seen research from the 562 00:30:02,720 --> 00:30:05,440 Speaker 1: FED staff on the issue yet, but maybe that's something 563 00:30:05,480 --> 00:30:07,760 Speaker 1: they happen the works in time. We got left two ideas. 564 00:30:08,080 --> 00:30:10,560 Speaker 1: The first one is my long read of the weekend 565 00:30:10,600 --> 00:30:12,760 Speaker 1: was Allen blind to the former vice chairman of the FED, 566 00:30:13,160 --> 00:30:17,440 Speaker 1: writing about his magnificent co author of a classic economics textbook, 567 00:30:17,720 --> 00:30:21,040 Speaker 1: William Baubo. How does that process go if Princeton, where 568 00:30:21,080 --> 00:30:23,320 Speaker 1: you honor a giant as you did with the death 569 00:30:23,360 --> 00:30:26,520 Speaker 1: of William Boma. Well, Bomble, as I've said on your show, 570 00:30:26,600 --> 00:30:30,040 Speaker 1: was a real giant in economics, and in many different ways, 571 00:30:30,120 --> 00:30:33,920 Speaker 1: unaccountable contributions were extraordinary. I mean in his eighties and 572 00:30:33,960 --> 00:30:36,760 Speaker 1: early nineties, he was more productive than most economists are 573 00:30:36,840 --> 00:30:40,680 Speaker 1: throughout their career. Uh. Bombl's cost disease is something I 574 00:30:40,800 --> 00:30:44,680 Speaker 1: teach to my my freshman class. Uh. We we have 575 00:30:45,200 --> 00:30:50,000 Speaker 1: a process when we have a university wide faculty meeting 576 00:30:50,520 --> 00:30:53,880 Speaker 1: early in the fall to recognize colleagues who have passed 577 00:30:53,880 --> 00:30:57,000 Speaker 1: away in the past year. Uh. The factory member rights 578 00:30:57,040 --> 00:30:59,160 Speaker 1: a statement. It's supposed to be a joint statement, but 579 00:30:59,280 --> 00:31:02,760 Speaker 1: Alan blinders such a beautiful writer. Alan Alan roaded himself 580 00:31:02,760 --> 00:31:05,720 Speaker 1: and Bert Malkill and I signed onto it asked him 581 00:31:05,720 --> 00:31:07,320 Speaker 1: not to change a word. It was such a beautiful 582 00:31:07,320 --> 00:31:11,280 Speaker 1: statement about Will's contributions. And the final thing is it 583 00:31:11,440 --> 00:31:14,400 Speaker 1: is a travel Monday here at Bloomberg Surveillance where we 584 00:31:14,440 --> 00:31:16,560 Speaker 1: ask all our guests about how tough was a trip. 585 00:31:16,600 --> 00:31:21,160 Speaker 1: To tell us about traveling to last talk to Dr 586 00:31:21,200 --> 00:31:25,160 Speaker 1: Krueger from from the Canals. First of all, I'm obliged 587 00:31:25,200 --> 00:31:27,280 Speaker 1: to point out that I was in Europe because I 588 00:31:27,280 --> 00:31:30,280 Speaker 1: went to an economic conference that was in Croatia, and 589 00:31:30,280 --> 00:31:32,320 Speaker 1: the easiest way to get there was to fly. Then 590 00:31:32,360 --> 00:31:36,920 Speaker 1: it's rent a car and drive a King's landing and 591 00:31:37,000 --> 00:31:42,000 Speaker 1: abrupt that was further north. It was umag beautiful, beautiful 592 00:31:42,000 --> 00:31:44,760 Speaker 1: part of Europe. I had never been to Croatia before 593 00:31:44,800 --> 00:31:47,160 Speaker 1: and it was a very very fine conference that I attended. 594 00:31:47,200 --> 00:31:52,000 Speaker 1: You didn't answer the question. Venni Venice was lovely as 595 00:31:52,480 --> 00:31:54,600 Speaker 1: as I've I've only been to Venice a few times. 596 00:31:54,600 --> 00:31:57,360 Speaker 1: It's lovely as it's been each time I visited. Very good. 597 00:31:57,360 --> 00:31:59,720 Speaker 1: Alan Krueger will have him a joint interview with Luigi's 598 00:32:00,080 --> 00:32:04,560 Speaker 1: The Constance. Yes, trips to like come O in the like, 599 00:32:04,680 --> 00:32:09,040 Speaker 1: but yes, well I'm not I don't read o Keeper 600 00:32:09,080 --> 00:32:21,080 Speaker 1: of the MX as No. Thanks for listening to the 601 00:32:21,120 --> 00:32:28,000 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and listen to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 602 00:32:28,360 --> 00:32:32,160 Speaker 1: or whichever podcast platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at 603 00:32:32,200 --> 00:32:36,880 Speaker 1: Tom Keene David Gura, Is that David Gura before the podcast? 604 00:32:37,200 --> 00:32:40,600 Speaker 1: You can always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio.