WEBVTT - Beating The Book: 2019 NFL MegaPod Week 16 Preview 0:00:03.400 --> 0:00:13.600 Check it on Man Down Man Thursday Morning Debt, then 0:00:13.720 --> 0:00:17.680 Eating the Book podcast and Megapod. It's Gill Alexander. It 0:00:17.800 --> 0:00:21.319 is week sixteen and we got another esteemed guest. He's 0:00:21.360 --> 0:00:24.239 back for another appearance this week, second time on the 0:00:24.280 --> 0:00:28.200 show this year. First Mike Palm could not make the 0:00:28.240 --> 0:00:31.480 show today. Mike had a full day of nothing but meetings, 0:00:31.520 --> 0:00:33.120 so he can't be with us. We are efforting to 0:00:33.159 --> 0:00:35.680 get his picks though, by the end of the show. Yes, Todd, 0:00:35.800 --> 0:00:38.600 that is what we're doing. I texted him, and you 0:00:38.720 --> 0:00:42.120 texted him, and we need his ps Okay. Jeff Parls 0:00:42.120 --> 0:00:44.520 produced number five from a numbers game on Visa Series 0:00:44.600 --> 0:00:46.879 X channel two O four, kind enough to step in 0:00:46.880 --> 0:00:50.240 in Mike's stead. Thank you, Jeffrey appreciate it. Of course, Gil. 0:00:50.840 --> 0:00:53.360 I will try to get my numbers right before the 0:00:53.760 --> 0:00:56.120 before I make my picks today. By the way, Jeff, 0:00:56.600 --> 0:00:58.760 I gotta tell you something funny about Jeff Parls. Yes, 0:00:58.880 --> 0:01:01.760 last week on Sunday, we're watching the games and he 0:01:01.800 --> 0:01:05.279 has the over in the Tennessee Houston game, right, and 0:01:05.360 --> 0:01:07.399 so he's he's sitting next to me. You know, we 0:01:07.480 --> 0:01:10.600 all cheer when something happens and so Tennessee's driving the 0:01:10.640 --> 0:01:16.440 ball down the field, are like the twenty and Tannehill Sorry, 0:01:16.440 --> 0:01:18.520 they're at the five yard line, and he thinks he's 0:01:18.520 --> 0:01:20.720 about to get seven points, which would help his over 0:01:20.760 --> 0:01:23.240 of course, and he the an tanne Hill throws an 0:01:23.240 --> 0:01:26.000 interception to some linebacker who's not like the speediest guy 0:01:26.040 --> 0:01:28.960 of all time. He starts is that who was more 0:01:29.000 --> 0:01:31.080 than Okay, So Whitney Mercer is running the other way, 0:01:31.400 --> 0:01:34.760 and and of course Jeff is yelling go, go go. 0:01:35.120 --> 0:01:37.319 And remember it's a long way from the five to 0:01:37.360 --> 0:01:40.480 the other goal line, that's yards, right, So he's yelling 0:01:40.520 --> 0:01:42.280 go in the middle of the go when the guys 0:01:42.319 --> 0:01:44.679 are about like the forty five, Jeff's like, go go. 0:01:45.080 --> 0:01:47.360 We don't care which way we get the points. Go 0:01:47.360 --> 0:01:50.680 go go. It was the funniest thing I ever heard. 0:01:51.320 --> 0:01:55.760 I was go and doing his own color commentary inside 0:01:55.800 --> 0:02:00.120 the go. It was fantastic. He was explaining, explaining is 0:02:00.200 --> 0:02:03.360 bet while Merciless was going down the field. Yeah, exactly, 0:02:03.400 --> 0:02:07.000 it's perfect. It doesn't matter how we get the points. 0:02:07.120 --> 0:02:11.400 I still have to get over a certain number. But 0:02:11.440 --> 0:02:13.560 then he continues Gil. Then he goes right back to 0:02:13.560 --> 0:02:15.960 the go. It's like go, we don't get out. We 0:02:16.000 --> 0:02:23.200 got the points go Jeff Parlan Todd Wishnev can be 0:02:23.280 --> 0:02:25.400 seen in their full glory at the South Point Hotel, 0:02:25.440 --> 0:02:28.240 Casito each and every Sunday in the Wishnevs section by 0:02:28.240 --> 0:02:30.840 the door. By the way, if they've videoed my reactions 0:02:30.960 --> 0:02:34.640 watching the Sunday games, it would be literally television gold, 0:02:34.800 --> 0:02:37.480 television gold. I don't doubt it. I don't doubt it. 0:02:38.040 --> 0:02:41.079 Our guest who has been waiting patiently listening to this, Michigas, 0:02:41.320 --> 0:02:43.280 is back on the show once again. He is a 0:02:43.280 --> 0:02:47.120 pioneer in the use of predictive algorithms in sports betting. 0:02:47.800 --> 0:02:50.080 He has my dear friend, ladies and gentlemen from Dr 0:02:50.120 --> 0:02:54.640 Bob Sports. It's Bob Still Hello, Bobby, Hello, Gilly. How's 0:02:54.680 --> 0:02:57.079 it going well? How are you? I'm doing very well. Man. 0:02:57.080 --> 0:02:59.320 You were saying all fair before the show started, that 0:02:59.440 --> 0:03:01.480 you're two year old is a Petrie dish of germs. 0:03:01.600 --> 0:03:03.880 It is this true? Yeah, that's true. He is in 0:03:03.960 --> 0:03:06.359 daycare now and he brings that stuff home to me. 0:03:06.480 --> 0:03:08.360 And I never get sick, and all of a sudden 0:03:08.400 --> 0:03:11.320 I'm under the weather and making it tougher to work. 0:03:11.360 --> 0:03:14.400 My sixteen hours a day, so um, I'm doing my best. 0:03:14.520 --> 0:03:16.600 We'll tell him to stop being so selfish. And he's 0:03:16.639 --> 0:03:20.320 two to sect though, so he gets we'll keep him alive. Well, 0:03:20.360 --> 0:03:22.200 I miss you, guys, gets along with his little sister. 0:03:22.240 --> 0:03:24.080 I've yet to meet his little sister, so hopefully one 0:03:24.120 --> 0:03:27.160 day soon. Thank you for doing this. I appreciate Go 0:03:27.280 --> 0:03:30.200 to the room for you, come on out to Colorado. 0:03:30.880 --> 0:03:33.480 I appreciate it. Okay, let's do this. Usually we start 0:03:33.520 --> 0:03:35.480 with the Circuit Sports million update, but since Mike he's 0:03:35.480 --> 0:03:38.320 not here, we go right into the best Bets, so 0:03:38.360 --> 0:03:40.680 it's Best Bets Teaser of the week, and then of 0:03:40.720 --> 0:03:43.960 course the final two questions because there's no Thursday games 0:03:43.960 --> 0:03:46.840 to talk about. Your right, that is correct, Thank you, Toddy. 0:03:47.360 --> 0:03:51.040 There are three Saturday games though, there are three Saturday games, 0:03:51.600 --> 0:03:53.920 but those will just throw into the general pool of games. 0:03:53.920 --> 0:03:56.800 Houston at Tampa, Buffalo at New England, and the Rams 0:03:56.840 --> 0:04:00.320 at San Francisco. Bob, you are the guests. Your first 0:04:00.480 --> 0:04:03.760 best bet, sir, side or total? Where are you going? Well, 0:04:03.840 --> 0:04:06.040 I am going to go with the New York Jets. 0:04:07.240 --> 0:04:10.320 They e t s Jets Jets Jets. Um, you know 0:04:10.440 --> 0:04:13.480 the thing is the Jets are underrated now on both 0:04:13.480 --> 0:04:15.400 sides of all. You know, first of all, they had 0:04:15.440 --> 0:04:17.480 a few games to see, three games I believe, in 0:04:17.520 --> 0:04:20.040 which the offense did not have Donald and the average 0:04:20.160 --> 0:04:22.880 about three yards per play. And I still think that 0:04:23.000 --> 0:04:26.920 Jets are a little underrated offensively because of that. Also, 0:04:26.960 --> 0:04:28.680 in the last two weeks now, everybody thinks all the 0:04:28.760 --> 0:04:31.680 Jets have given up they're terrible. Yeah, but they had 0:04:31.720 --> 0:04:33.640 three starters out in the secondary each of the last 0:04:33.640 --> 0:04:38.040 two weeks. Everyone's back this week, including all Pro Jamal Adams. Uh. 0:04:38.040 --> 0:04:40.160 They allowed to eight point eight yards per past play 0:04:40.200 --> 0:04:42.599 in those in those last two weeks, but in the 0:04:42.640 --> 0:04:44.839 first thirteen weeks of the season, the Jets only allowed 0:04:44.880 --> 0:04:46.920 six point two yards per past play, which is better 0:04:46.960 --> 0:04:50.240 than average. They match up pretty well here, I think. Uh. 0:04:50.760 --> 0:04:54.960 You know, the Hispurgs best receiver is Juju Smith Schuster, 0:04:55.279 --> 0:04:57.760 who runs most of his h routes from the slot, 0:04:58.200 --> 0:05:00.720 and the Jets have one of the best nicke slot 0:05:00.880 --> 0:05:02.960 cornerbacks in the in the league and Brian Pool you 0:05:03.040 --> 0:05:06.080 ran second in the league in in yards per cover 0:05:06.160 --> 0:05:08.679 snap aloud in the slot. So it's a really good 0:05:08.680 --> 0:05:12.840 matchup for the Jets having their best cover corner against 0:05:13.000 --> 0:05:16.480 Pittsburgh's best receiver. UM, so I think the defense will 0:05:16.480 --> 0:05:18.120 do a good Jeff here. Also, the Jets rank ninth 0:05:18.120 --> 0:05:21.400 in the league in our run defense metrics UM, which 0:05:21.480 --> 0:05:23.120 you know, on success rates and stuff like that. So 0:05:23.120 --> 0:05:24.880 I don't think Pittsburgh's gonna do a lot on the ground, 0:05:24.920 --> 0:05:27.640 and that just leaves you know, Duck Hodges, you know, 0:05:27.720 --> 0:05:30.920 doing it on his own basically without you know, having 0:05:30.960 --> 0:05:33.599 his best receiver open as much as usual, without a 0:05:33.640 --> 0:05:37.240 running game. So I think Pittsburgh's gonna struggle offensively. That's 0:05:37.240 --> 0:05:40.160 probably the other side of the ball. UM. You know, 0:05:40.240 --> 0:05:43.040 Donald has had trouble versus the blizz in his career, 0:05:43.200 --> 0:05:45.880 and Pittsburgh bliitzes a lot. There's seventh in the league 0:05:45.880 --> 0:05:47.760 and blitz rate, so that could be a problem. But 0:05:47.800 --> 0:05:50.239 then again, it also leads some more checkdowns and getting 0:05:50.240 --> 0:05:52.400 the ball out to your running back, and that actually 0:05:52.800 --> 0:05:55.640 helps the Jets here. As Levian Bell is a good 0:05:55.680 --> 0:05:57.560 receiver out of the backfield, I'm sure he would love 0:05:57.800 --> 0:06:01.119 too to have a great perform against his former team, 0:06:01.440 --> 0:06:04.520 and he's matched up in this particular matchup, he's matched 0:06:04.600 --> 0:06:07.520 up against one of the worst covering linebackers in the league. 0:06:07.520 --> 0:06:10.159 Mark Baron is the second worst in the league amongst 0:06:10.200 --> 0:06:13.719 qualifying linebackers in yards per cover snap allowed. So Lebann 0:06:13.760 --> 0:06:15.640 Bell is gonna have a good matchup in the Blitzing 0:06:16.000 --> 0:06:18.280 may backfire because he may get more balls out the 0:06:18.279 --> 0:06:21.920 Bell out of the backfield. Uh And also Blissing tends 0:06:21.920 --> 0:06:24.880 to lead the quicker passes to slot receivers and Jamison 0:06:24.920 --> 0:06:27.480 Crowder happens to be Donald's favorite receiver and he runs 0:06:27.520 --> 0:06:29.640 most of his routes out of the slot and still 0:06:29.680 --> 0:06:32.440 is nickelback Mike Hilton his fourth worst in the league 0:06:32.520 --> 0:06:35.040 and yards per cover snap allowed in the slot. So 0:06:35.400 --> 0:06:38.400 there's some good match ups here for the Jets offense, UM, 0:06:38.680 --> 0:06:40.440 And so I think they'll be able to move the 0:06:40.440 --> 0:06:44.560 ball relatively well. Um and the Jets are tough at home. 0:06:44.600 --> 0:06:46.440 I mean, Donald's played much better at home in his 0:06:46.520 --> 0:06:49.279 career and in the game that Donald has played this 0:06:49.400 --> 0:06:51.920 year at home, the Jets are four and two straight up. 0:06:52.760 --> 0:06:55.080 One of the losses was by one point to Buffalo. 0:06:55.800 --> 0:06:58.400 They've had wins over Dallas in Oakland and then the Giants, 0:06:58.400 --> 0:07:01.240 all his underdogs uh um and the only the only 0:07:01.240 --> 0:07:03.520 game they've lost at home by more than one point 0:07:03.520 --> 0:07:05.880 with Donald the quarterback was to New England, which you 0:07:05.920 --> 0:07:09.279 know that's gonna happen. So I I like the UH. 0:07:09.360 --> 0:07:10.960 I like the like the Jets, plus the point I 0:07:11.000 --> 0:07:13.800 could get straight up to be honest, what do we do? 0:07:13.840 --> 0:07:16.760 We sprinkle something, We sprinkle all the money line, Bob, 0:07:16.760 --> 0:07:28.320 you know how this works. Spreckle spreckley um. And you 0:07:28.360 --> 0:07:30.200 know it should be mentioned that the Jets against the 0:07:30.240 --> 0:07:32.880 Ravens on Thursday night, by the way, very thorough analysis, Bob. 0:07:32.920 --> 0:07:35.520 As we know and expect from you, as always, you 0:07:35.600 --> 0:07:38.760 always come through. The Jets should have been pretty much 0:07:38.880 --> 0:07:41.560 tied with the Ravens at halftime this past Thursday night. 0:07:41.600 --> 0:07:44.080 Jets on extra rest here. But you know they did 0:07:44.160 --> 0:07:47.720 Jets things, couldn't convert a fourth and one, missed the 0:07:47.880 --> 0:07:49.920 field goal. There were some other things that they did 0:07:50.600 --> 0:07:53.160 in that game that just shot themselves in the foot. 0:07:53.400 --> 0:07:55.720 Should have been much more competitive. You like the Jets. 0:07:55.800 --> 0:07:58.320 You're sprinkling on the money line. By the way. Steelers 0:07:58.640 --> 0:08:01.320 they're in the sixth A shin right now, currently in 0:08:01.360 --> 0:08:04.360 the a f C, but really no room for error. 0:08:04.920 --> 0:08:07.280 Currently hold the tiebreaker over the Titans because of one 0:08:07.280 --> 0:08:10.640 of excuse me, because of one fewer conference loss, but 0:08:10.840 --> 0:08:13.000 two games left, So that doesn't mean anything because the 0:08:13.000 --> 0:08:15.360 playoffs don't start right now. But Bob, you always have 0:08:15.360 --> 0:08:18.360 a statement when the teams in a must win situation, Well, 0:08:18.400 --> 0:08:20.280 if they were good enough to win when they wanted 0:08:20.320 --> 0:08:22.400 to win, they wouldn't be in a must win situation. 0:08:23.000 --> 0:08:25.760 That's right, And here's and here's the stat. Here's the stat. 0:08:25.800 --> 0:08:27.520 And I was gonna throw this out at some point 0:08:27.640 --> 0:08:29.160 mine as we'll do it here. This is not an 0:08:29.200 --> 0:08:32.800 absolute must win for Pittsburgh because they can lose and 0:08:32.840 --> 0:08:35.960 still be in the playoffs. But I do have an 0:08:36.000 --> 0:08:38.679 angle that that's that's sort of the same. The concept 0:08:38.760 --> 0:08:42.880 applies that Pittsburg getting money because they're in the must 0:08:42.880 --> 0:08:45.240 win and people are looking for excuses the better game. Well, 0:08:45.280 --> 0:08:47.040 Pittsburgh needs to win, so I'm gonna bet on them 0:08:47.040 --> 0:08:49.000 because they need to win. Like I said, needing to 0:08:49.040 --> 0:08:51.600 win doesn't mean you're going to win. Um. But anyway, 0:08:51.679 --> 0:08:55.200 teams that absolutely need to win or else they're eliminated 0:08:55.200 --> 0:08:57.360 from the playoffs. When facing teams that are out of 0:08:57.360 --> 0:09:01.680 playoff contention, they must win. Team are sixty two and 0:09:01.760 --> 0:09:04.640 one hundred against the spread over the years against teams 0:09:04.640 --> 0:09:06.680 that are out of the playoffs. This is what I 0:09:06.720 --> 0:09:10.400 said the other day. Oh sorry, yeah, no worse. People 0:09:10.440 --> 0:09:13.880 overreact to this must win. They're grasping for some reason 0:09:13.920 --> 0:09:16.280 to better game and must win as it seems like 0:09:16.360 --> 0:09:19.840 a good reason, and it's just it's just doesn't work, 0:09:19.920 --> 0:09:23.160 and there's usually value playing against these must win teams. 0:09:23.520 --> 0:09:25.599 UH in the fifth and week fifteen and six and 0:09:25.800 --> 0:09:28.680 sixteen and seven win an angle of five UM. So 0:09:28.679 --> 0:09:31.400 it doesn't officially apply here because Pittsburgh can still lose 0:09:31.440 --> 0:09:34.040 and still make the playoffs. But in in concept that 0:09:34.160 --> 0:09:35.880 sort of does apply here because I think we're getting 0:09:35.920 --> 0:09:38.040 line guy on the Jets because Pittsburgh gonna must win 0:09:38.080 --> 0:09:40.400 and people are betting Pittsburgh because of it. It's all 0:09:40.440 --> 0:09:42.120 my years spent with you, Bob. I knew to bring 0:09:42.160 --> 0:09:44.640 this up because again, and if you're in a must 0:09:44.640 --> 0:09:47.720 win situation, you must not be that good sixty two 0:09:47.880 --> 0:09:51.560 one against the spread, UH in an absolute must win situation. 0:09:51.600 --> 0:09:54.400 As Bob has pointed out, this is not exactly qualified 0:09:54.400 --> 0:09:56.720 because there is a scenario where Pittsburgh could lose and 0:09:56.760 --> 0:09:59.559 still get in. But these do apply in many situations 0:09:59.559 --> 0:10:05.600 weeks seen in particularly Week seventeen, will have these. Um yeah, 0:10:05.600 --> 0:10:08.640 Oakland this week, Oakland obviously you know they're still hanging on, 0:10:09.679 --> 0:10:12.960 but nonetheless they already must win against the Chargers, who 0:10:12.960 --> 0:10:16.560 are out. I believe Indie, Uh well, Indie Laws, so 0:10:16.600 --> 0:10:20.760 they're out Cleveland. Cleveland might be the other one. Uh 0:10:22.280 --> 0:10:24.319 or didn't or yeah, I think Cleveland's the other one. 0:10:24.480 --> 0:10:26.160 Baltimore is in the playoff. The Baltimore is oisle of 0:10:26.200 --> 0:10:28.280 the playoffs, right right right? The other the other side 0:10:28.280 --> 0:10:30.640 doesn't apply, That's right. It has to be against Oakland, 0:10:30.640 --> 0:10:32.880 I think is the only one this week. I'm dug 0:10:32.880 --> 0:10:35.160 into all of it, but next week there should be bunched. Todd, 0:10:35.160 --> 0:10:36.440 you were saying that you had brought this up on 0:10:36.440 --> 0:10:38.760 a numbers game yesterday to right, not even knowing that 0:10:39.520 --> 0:10:42.240 on a numbers game on on Visa and uh it's 0:10:42.280 --> 0:10:46.560 a the sports betting network. Um that network. Um, I 0:10:46.600 --> 0:10:49.120 was talking about this yesterday. I always think the must 0:10:49.160 --> 0:10:52.520 win thing is overblown, And now Bob comes and throws 0:10:52.520 --> 0:10:54.720 some stats on top of it, telling you there's sixty 0:10:54.720 --> 0:10:58.160 one and a hundred. So I am vindicated, Thank you, Bob. 0:10:58.880 --> 0:11:00.800 O problem and I've been tracked he missed by hand. 0:11:00.840 --> 0:11:02.800 And you know, it's really hard to look this up. 0:11:02.840 --> 0:11:05.240 And I'm tracking missed by hand just years ago. I 0:11:05.360 --> 0:11:09.800 just noticed it years ago, and I just tracked it 0:11:09.800 --> 0:11:13.040 by hand. I probably tracked this for for twenty years now. 0:11:14.120 --> 0:11:16.000 I haven't tracked it, but I used to notice it 0:11:16.040 --> 0:11:17.880 all the time because these idiots would get on the 0:11:17.920 --> 0:11:19.719 TV and be like, Wow, this team needs to win. 0:11:19.840 --> 0:11:22.440 The other thing is it's a football game. Is the 0:11:22.480 --> 0:11:25.120 guy the defensive back not gonna run as hard because 0:11:25.360 --> 0:11:28.120 he doesn't need it for the playoffs? The professionals too, 0:11:28.960 --> 0:11:31.600 They agree, and then there's pride and then people people, 0:11:31.800 --> 0:11:34.360 you know, team players want to win. That's why I 0:11:34.360 --> 0:11:37.680 said when when everybody's talking about Miami tanking, I was like, no, 0:11:37.920 --> 0:11:41.760 players don't tank organizations tank. Players want to play well. 0:11:41.840 --> 0:11:44.800 Players want to win, you know. And then Miami started 0:11:44.880 --> 0:11:47.920 winning some games. Yeah, exactly the same thing here. You 0:11:47.960 --> 0:11:51.840 guys should just hug it out. That was beautiful, Todd. 0:11:52.080 --> 0:11:55.600 I love you, Todd, love you. I mean. Dr Bob 0:11:55.640 --> 0:11:57.720 knows his stuff. As I've told you before, we have 0:11:57.800 --> 0:12:00.720 similar systems. He uses a model. I used the Losh model. 0:12:00.800 --> 0:12:03.600 The goolash model. That's right. But you're right also, Bob. 0:12:03.600 --> 0:12:05.600 The one quirk about that, what you're saying is there's 0:12:05.679 --> 0:12:10.000 no database that's gonna be able to pick up teams 0:12:10.040 --> 0:12:13.720 that absolutely need to win versus teams that don't because 0:12:13.760 --> 0:12:16.560 they're so specific, right, like yeah, because because like we 0:12:16.559 --> 0:12:19.000 said about Pittsburgh, they kind of do need to win, 0:12:19.040 --> 0:12:22.680 but it's not absolute, so it's a very specific specific 0:12:22.800 --> 0:12:25.360 Once it reminds me of this exactly, Gil is when 0:12:25.360 --> 0:12:27.680 they go, it's very tough to beat the team three 0:12:27.840 --> 0:12:31.360 times in one year, you know, which is ridiculu, ridiculous, ridiculous. 0:12:31.600 --> 0:12:36.800 It's another one that, like cousin, we must win. It's bullshit. 0:12:37.120 --> 0:12:40.960 Come come conference tournament time in college basketball, you know 0:12:41.040 --> 0:12:43.760 the double revenge team. People love to play the double 0:12:43.760 --> 0:12:46.640 revenge team in the conference tournament. Well, double revenge. Playing 0:12:46.640 --> 0:12:49.560 double revenge teams will get you to the poorhouse quicker 0:12:49.600 --> 0:12:51.640 than anything else, because if they were good, they would 0:12:51.679 --> 0:12:53.640 have won one of the first two games, right, Bob, 0:12:53.720 --> 0:12:55.920 They would have got revenge the first time because they 0:12:55.960 --> 0:12:59.080 had a chance in the second game and they didn't. Um. Yeah, 0:12:59.160 --> 0:13:02.199 double revenge were events teams in conference tournaments in basketball, 0:13:02.440 --> 0:13:06.280 or like I think blind or like against this press. 0:13:06.480 --> 0:13:09.800 Good luck with that, and Bob Kills conference week in basketball, 0:13:09.880 --> 0:13:11.960 that's a bread and butter for him. Todd, what's your 0:13:12.000 --> 0:13:14.320 first best bet? We'll go to you next. Okay, well 0:13:14.360 --> 0:13:16.640 I was. You know, we all know what I usually 0:13:16.679 --> 0:13:19.080 like to bet here, and that is my best bet. 0:13:19.120 --> 0:13:22.120 I always take Tampa over, and I like to stick 0:13:22.160 --> 0:13:25.400 it up the ass of the Sharps. The Sharps last week, 0:13:25.840 --> 0:13:31.160 in an unbelievable situation, they kept betting the Tampa Bay 0:13:31.200 --> 0:13:34.280 over down all the way until it got to forty five, 0:13:34.400 --> 0:13:37.440 even at the South Point on Sunday morning, and I 0:13:37.480 --> 0:13:40.520 was like, Okay, this is just getting ridiculous. Give me over. 0:13:41.080 --> 0:13:43.200 And I guess it was because they thought David Blow 0:13:43.320 --> 0:13:45.480 was the quarterback for Detroit or something. I don't know 0:13:45.520 --> 0:13:48.319 what they were thinking. But again, Tampa Bay came in 0:13:48.360 --> 0:13:51.400 for us, so you know, Tampa Bay over straight Textica. 0:13:51.480 --> 0:13:53.200 I don't want to go with Tampa Bay over just 0:13:53.240 --> 0:13:56.280 this second. I'm still mulling it over because that all 0:13:56.320 --> 0:13:58.760 the receivers are hurt now and stuff, and they're playing 0:13:58.880 --> 0:14:01.800 more of a quality team. Um, so I'm gonna pass 0:14:01.840 --> 0:14:04.120 on that right at this moment, I'm gonna go with 0:14:04.200 --> 0:14:07.360 your buffalo bills plus? What do I get? Six? Or 0:14:07.400 --> 0:14:11.200 six and a half? You get? Let me see here. 0:14:11.360 --> 0:14:15.280 It's an excellent question, Todd. You get because that's going 0:14:15.320 --> 0:14:19.360 to be one of mine too. You've been you've been listening. Uh, 0:14:20.640 --> 0:14:23.920 it's right in the middle. It's split, yeah, split, alright? 0:14:24.000 --> 0:14:26.640 So what do I get? Um, it's six? Is there's 0:14:26.640 --> 0:14:28.560 as many six as a there? Or six and a half? 0:14:29.440 --> 0:14:31.920 What should be the ruling book of choice? We've never 0:14:31.960 --> 0:14:33.840 had this situation come up yet this year, and I 0:14:33.880 --> 0:14:36.200 think it since it came from six and a half. 0:14:36.320 --> 0:14:37.840 It was six and a half, you know, and he 0:14:37.960 --> 0:14:40.440 was going over his bed and probably was six and 0:14:40.440 --> 0:14:42.280 a half. And it's really split down the middle here. 0:14:42.960 --> 0:14:44.320 So we'll give him six and a half. Is that 0:14:44.360 --> 0:14:46.720 a half minus fifteen? There you go, six and a 0:14:46.720 --> 0:14:49.400 half minus fifteen. I will take the bills plus six 0:14:49.400 --> 0:14:50.920 and a half. If you notice, I don't do it 0:14:50.960 --> 0:14:54.560 the way Mike Palm does it, where he takes the seven. 0:14:54.880 --> 0:14:57.480 In this situation, you'll be like, I'll take buffalo plus seven. 0:14:57.720 --> 0:15:01.400 And then when we have to remind non buffalo plus seven, 0:15:01.400 --> 0:15:04.640 it's buffalo plus okay, Anyways, I'll take the Buffalo Bills. 0:15:04.880 --> 0:15:08.000 And the reason I'll take the Buffalo Bills is because 0:15:08.440 --> 0:15:11.200 the New England Patriots. And here's here's a narrative that 0:15:11.240 --> 0:15:13.480 you're gonna hear a lot late in the season. Well, 0:15:13.520 --> 0:15:15.760 the Patriots do this all the time, and then of 0:15:15.760 --> 0:15:18.200 course it comes playoff time and they turn it on 0:15:18.280 --> 0:15:20.840 and Belichick win to the Super Bowl. Yes, that is 0:15:20.880 --> 0:15:24.280 the narrative, but folks, it doesn't usually work in this pattern. 0:15:24.640 --> 0:15:28.320 The pattern usually is the Patriots suck early and then 0:15:28.360 --> 0:15:30.800 Belichick cleans it up, coaches them up, and by the 0:15:30.920 --> 0:15:32.600 end of the year they win the Super Bowl. Not 0:15:32.800 --> 0:15:36.440 happening this year. They are not a talented football team 0:15:36.480 --> 0:15:39.440 at the wide out position. There's no one for Tommy 0:15:39.560 --> 0:15:42.440 Terrific to throw the ball to who is open. In 0:15:42.520 --> 0:15:45.400 the first game between these teams, New England had to 0:15:45.480 --> 0:15:49.720 hold on with all their dear life to barely squeak 0:15:49.760 --> 0:15:52.160 out a sixteen to ten win. They had to hold 0:15:52.200 --> 0:15:54.720 the Bills at the three yard line. The Bills played 0:15:54.760 --> 0:15:58.960 them straight up, nice and tight. The Bill's defense is outstanding. 0:15:59.360 --> 0:16:01.360 It's definitely only in the top five or six in 0:16:01.360 --> 0:16:03.960 the league. The Patriots have no one to throw the 0:16:04.000 --> 0:16:07.920 ball too, and Joshua Allen can run the football when 0:16:07.960 --> 0:16:11.240 all else fault fails through No. Granted, the Bills offense 0:16:11.320 --> 0:16:13.520 isn't good. I'm not here telling you the Builds offense 0:16:13.600 --> 0:16:17.000 is good. But it's good enough to stay within six 0:16:17.040 --> 0:16:21.280 and a half against the team that is offensively challenged 0:16:21.360 --> 0:16:24.120 as the Patriots are this year. They will not win 0:16:24.160 --> 0:16:26.360 the Super Bowl this year. You heard it here first, 0:16:26.400 --> 0:16:28.800 Thank you. I think I think we might have heard 0:16:28.800 --> 0:16:31.840 it before else heard too. Um, I'm gonna I'm gonna 0:16:31.920 --> 0:16:35.440 jump in, Jeff, because I too. On guessing lines on 0:16:35.480 --> 0:16:38.280 Monday with Chris Andrews, this was the first game I 0:16:38.280 --> 0:16:41.680 immediately gravitated towards. I guessed that New England would be 0:16:41.720 --> 0:16:43.640 a four and a half point favorite in this game. 0:16:43.960 --> 0:16:46.240 Instead it was six and a half. I'm own Buffalo 0:16:46.320 --> 0:16:48.400 to Buffalo clinch to playoff Berth With that win against 0:16:48.400 --> 0:16:51.160 the Steelers on Sunday night, New England clinched to playoff 0:16:51.200 --> 0:16:53.480 Berth for the eleventh straight season, which extends an NFL 0:16:53.520 --> 0:16:56.080 record against in Seneta, Patriots win the a f C 0:16:56.280 --> 0:16:58.880 East for the eleventh straight season, also by the way, 0:16:58.920 --> 0:17:00.800 with a win in either of their final two games, 0:17:00.960 --> 0:17:03.160 Bills would have to win out, Patriots would have to 0:17:03.240 --> 0:17:05.080 lose out for the Bills to win the A f 0:17:05.119 --> 0:17:08.080 C East. But all the reasons that Todd stated, uh, 0:17:08.119 --> 0:17:10.960 this is too many points. The New England defense, I 0:17:11.000 --> 0:17:13.080 get it, they're great and the Buffalo offense not that great. 0:17:13.080 --> 0:17:14.560 But the other side of the ball, you can say 0:17:14.600 --> 0:17:17.120 the exact same thing, the Buffalo defense versus the New 0:17:17.119 --> 0:17:19.959 England offense. You're giving me six and a half points 0:17:19.960 --> 0:17:23.200 here does not make any sense to me. A am reminded, 0:17:23.200 --> 0:17:25.560 since Bob is on the phone with us here, Bob 0:17:25.640 --> 0:17:28.399 once had a football guy. I won't mention any names, 0:17:28.600 --> 0:17:30.879 and Bobby will remember who I'm talking about who. His 0:17:31.040 --> 0:17:35.880 numbers always showed value against the New England Patriots, and 0:17:35.920 --> 0:17:40.000 the Patriots and the heyday of Belichick would constantly destroy 0:17:40.119 --> 0:17:42.439 anybody who felt that way from week to week. And 0:17:42.440 --> 0:17:43.840 you just had to throw out the numbers when it 0:17:43.920 --> 0:17:46.080 came to the Patriots because they were a different animal. 0:17:46.520 --> 0:17:48.679 I'm with you, though, Todd. I think this is a 0:17:48.720 --> 0:17:52.720 different Patriots animal then those Patriots teams. So give me 0:17:52.760 --> 0:17:55.360 the six and a half points. I'll take the Buffalo Bills. Bob, 0:17:55.400 --> 0:17:58.280 you remember the episode I was talking about, right, yeah, Yeah. 0:17:58.400 --> 0:18:01.640 The thing is they they years they outplayed the Patriots 0:18:01.640 --> 0:18:04.480 outplayed my my math model by two and a half 0:18:04.480 --> 0:18:06.479 the three points every single year. So I would just 0:18:06.720 --> 0:18:10.159 I would just add two and a half point to 0:18:10.200 --> 0:18:12.680 New England every week and well and that would take. 0:18:12.760 --> 0:18:15.040 That would keep me off on them most of the time. Oh, 0:18:15.240 --> 0:18:17.000 that's why you have to You have to go to 0:18:17.040 --> 0:18:19.560 the Google Losh model system, which you take. You take 0:18:19.600 --> 0:18:22.359 your model, then you throw in the Google losh of 0:18:22.400 --> 0:18:25.240 what you've seen, and you get yourself a mixture of 0:18:25.280 --> 0:18:30.119 a nice Google Losh of a system. Very interesting, very interesting. Jeff. Sorry, 0:18:30.240 --> 0:18:32.360 we'll get to you sooner next round. But what's your 0:18:32.400 --> 0:18:35.359 first best bet? You know, Gil, I'm going with with 0:18:35.520 --> 0:18:38.359 you and Todd just said each have the best bet 0:18:38.359 --> 0:18:40.480 of the week is the Buffalo Bills plus six and 0:18:40.480 --> 0:18:43.879 a half. Look, I I think everyone said said it 0:18:43.960 --> 0:18:47.400 the right way here. The Bill's defense is phenomenal. New 0:18:47.400 --> 0:18:50.919 England's offense isn't very good. New England's defense is phenomenal. 0:18:51.320 --> 0:18:54.600 Buffalo's offenses is the erratic. We'll put it that way, 0:18:54.600 --> 0:18:57.840 since uh Josh Allen might be the most erratic quarterback 0:18:58.119 --> 0:19:00.480 in the NFL, you could get a great jot shallon 0:19:00.560 --> 0:19:03.280 game and Buffalo actually wins this game out right, where 0:19:03.320 --> 0:19:05.879 you can get bad Josh Allen and Buffalo's defense is 0:19:05.880 --> 0:19:08.359 going to have to hold New England's offense down to 0:19:08.440 --> 0:19:11.000 really stay in the game. But I don't know how 0:19:11.040 --> 0:19:13.239 New England scoring in this game. The last time they 0:19:13.240 --> 0:19:16.720 scored sixteen points and sit and and a touchdown of 0:19:16.840 --> 0:19:21.000 that sixtheam was a block punt, so and the Bill 0:19:21.040 --> 0:19:23.479 should be able to keep this thing tight. I'm with 0:19:23.520 --> 0:19:25.880 you and Todd. I'm going Buffalo plus six and a half, 0:19:26.480 --> 0:19:29.280 which which means with all three of us having that 0:19:29.320 --> 0:19:33.040 as our best bets, look out everyone New England. The 0:19:33.080 --> 0:19:36.280 other way New England that didn't work out and said 0:19:36.280 --> 0:19:38.360 that happened to us last week. We all had Miami 0:19:38.480 --> 0:19:41.280 right and then that did not work out nicely at all. 0:19:41.600 --> 0:19:43.720