Speaker 1: Check it on Man Down Man Thursday Morning Debt, then
Speaker 1: Eating the Book podcast and Megapod. It's Gill Alexander. It
Speaker 1: is week sixteen and we got another esteemed guest. He's
Speaker 1: back for another appearance this week, second time on the
Speaker 1: show this year. First Mike Palm could not make the
Speaker 1: show today. Mike had a full day of nothing but meetings,
Speaker 1: so he can't be with us. We are efforting to
Speaker 1: get his picks though, by the end of the show. Yes, Todd,
Speaker 1: that is what we're doing. I texted him, and you
Speaker 1: texted him, and we need his ps Okay. Jeff Parls
Speaker 1: produced number five from a numbers game on Visa Series
Speaker 1: X channel two O four, kind enough to step in
Speaker 1: in Mike's stead. Thank you, Jeffrey appreciate it. Of course, Gil.
Speaker 1: I will try to get my numbers right before the
Speaker 1: before I make my picks today. By the way, Jeff,
Speaker 1: I gotta tell you something funny about Jeff Parls. Yes,
Speaker 1: last week on Sunday, we're watching the games and he
Speaker 1: has the over in the Tennessee Houston game, right, and
Speaker 1: so he's he's sitting next to me. You know, we
Speaker 1: all cheer when something happens and so Tennessee's driving the
Speaker 1: ball down the field, are like the twenty and Tannehill Sorry,
Speaker 1: they're at the five yard line, and he thinks he's
Speaker 1: about to get seven points, which would help his over
Speaker 1: of course, and he the an tanne Hill throws an
Speaker 1: interception to some linebacker who's not like the speediest guy
Speaker 1: of all time. He starts is that who was more
Speaker 1: than Okay, So Whitney Mercer is running the other way,
Speaker 1: and and of course Jeff is yelling go, go go.
Speaker 1: And remember it's a long way from the five to
Speaker 1: the other goal line, that's yards, right, So he's yelling
Speaker 1: go in the middle of the go when the guys
Speaker 1: are about like the forty five, Jeff's like, go go.
Speaker 1: We don't care which way we get the points. Go
Speaker 1: go go. It was the funniest thing I ever heard.
Speaker 1: I was go and doing his own color commentary inside
Speaker 1: the go. It was fantastic. He was explaining, explaining is
Speaker 1: bet while Merciless was going down the field. Yeah, exactly,
Speaker 1: it's perfect. It doesn't matter how we get the points.
Speaker 1: I still have to get over a certain number. But
Speaker 1: then he continues Gil. Then he goes right back to
Speaker 1: the go. It's like go, we don't get out. We
Speaker 1: got the points go Jeff Parlan Todd Wishnev can be
Speaker 1: seen in their full glory at the South Point Hotel,
Speaker 1: Casito each and every Sunday in the Wishnevs section by
Speaker 1: the door. By the way, if they've videoed my reactions
Speaker 1: watching the Sunday games, it would be literally television gold,
Speaker 1: television gold. I don't doubt it. I don't doubt it.
Speaker 1: Our guest who has been waiting patiently listening to this, Michigas,
Speaker 1: is back on the show once again. He is a
Speaker 1: pioneer in the use of predictive algorithms in sports betting.
Speaker 1: He has my dear friend, ladies and gentlemen from Dr
Speaker 1: Bob Sports. It's Bob Still Hello, Bobby, Hello, Gilly. How's
Speaker 1: it going well? How are you? I'm doing very well. Man.
Speaker 1: You were saying all fair before the show started, that
Speaker 1: you're two year old is a Petrie dish of germs.
Speaker 1: It is this true? Yeah, that's true. He is in
Speaker 1: daycare now and he brings that stuff home to me.
Speaker 1: And I never get sick, and all of a sudden
Speaker 1: I'm under the weather and making it tougher to work.
Speaker 1: My sixteen hours a day, so um, I'm doing my best.
Speaker 1: We'll tell him to stop being so selfish. And he's
Speaker 1: two to sect though, so he gets we'll keep him alive. Well,
Speaker 1: I miss you, guys, gets along with his little sister.
Speaker 1: I've yet to meet his little sister, so hopefully one
Speaker 1: day soon. Thank you for doing this. I appreciate Go
Speaker 1: to the room for you, come on out to Colorado.
Speaker 1: I appreciate it. Okay, let's do this. Usually we start
Speaker 1: with the Circuit Sports million update, but since Mike he's
Speaker 1: not here, we go right into the best Bets, so
Speaker 1: it's Best Bets Teaser of the week, and then of
Speaker 1: course the final two questions because there's no Thursday games
Speaker 1: to talk about. Your right, that is correct, Thank you, Toddy.
Speaker 1: There are three Saturday games though, there are three Saturday games,
Speaker 1: but those will just throw into the general pool of games.
Speaker 1: Houston at Tampa, Buffalo at New England, and the Rams
Speaker 1: at San Francisco. Bob, you are the guests. Your first
Speaker 1: best bet, sir, side or total? Where are you going? Well,
Speaker 1: I am going to go with the New York Jets.
Speaker 1: They e t s Jets Jets Jets. Um, you know
Speaker 1: the thing is the Jets are underrated now on both
Speaker 1: sides of all. You know, first of all, they had
Speaker 1: a few games to see, three games I believe, in
Speaker 1: which the offense did not have Donald and the average
Speaker 1: about three yards per play. And I still think that
Speaker 1: Jets are a little underrated offensively because of that. Also,
Speaker 1: in the last two weeks now, everybody thinks all the
Speaker 1: Jets have given up they're terrible. Yeah, but they had
Speaker 1: three starters out in the secondary each of the last
Speaker 1: two weeks. Everyone's back this week, including all Pro Jamal Adams. Uh.
Speaker 1: They allowed to eight point eight yards per past play
Speaker 1: in those in those last two weeks, but in the
Speaker 1: first thirteen weeks of the season, the Jets only allowed
Speaker 1: six point two yards per past play, which is better
Speaker 1: than average. They match up pretty well here, I think. Uh.
Speaker 1: You know, the Hispurgs best receiver is Juju Smith Schuster,
Speaker 1: who runs most of his h routes from the slot,
Speaker 1: and the Jets have one of the best nicke slot
Speaker 1: cornerbacks in the in the league and Brian Pool you
Speaker 1: ran second in the league in in yards per cover
Speaker 1: snap aloud in the slot. So it's a really good
Speaker 1: matchup for the Jets having their best cover corner against
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh's best receiver. UM, so I think the defense will
Speaker 1: do a good Jeff here. Also, the Jets rank ninth
Speaker 1: in the league in our run defense metrics UM, which
Speaker 1: you know, on success rates and stuff like that. So
Speaker 1: I don't think Pittsburgh's gonna do a lot on the ground,
Speaker 1: and that just leaves you know, Duck Hodges, you know,
Speaker 1: doing it on his own basically without you know, having
Speaker 1: his best receiver open as much as usual, without a
Speaker 1: running game. So I think Pittsburgh's gonna struggle offensively. That's
Speaker 1: probably the other side of the ball. UM. You know,
Speaker 1: Donald has had trouble versus the blizz in his career,
Speaker 1: and Pittsburgh bliitzes a lot. There's seventh in the league
Speaker 1: and blitz rate, so that could be a problem. But
Speaker 1: then again, it also leads some more checkdowns and getting
Speaker 1: the ball out to your running back, and that actually
Speaker 1: helps the Jets here. As Levian Bell is a good
Speaker 1: receiver out of the backfield, I'm sure he would love
Speaker 1: too to have a great perform against his former team,
Speaker 1: and he's matched up in this particular matchup, he's matched
Speaker 1: up against one of the worst covering linebackers in the league.
Speaker 1: Mark Baron is the second worst in the league amongst
Speaker 1: qualifying linebackers in yards per cover snap allowed. So Lebann
Speaker 1: Bell is gonna have a good matchup in the Blitzing
Speaker 1: may backfire because he may get more balls out the
Speaker 1: Bell out of the backfield. Uh And also Blissing tends
Speaker 1: to lead the quicker passes to slot receivers and Jamison
Speaker 1: Crowder happens to be Donald's favorite receiver and he runs
Speaker 1: most of his routes out of the slot and still
Speaker 1: is nickelback Mike Hilton his fourth worst in the league
Speaker 1: and yards per cover snap allowed in the slot. So
Speaker 1: there's some good match ups here for the Jets offense, UM,
Speaker 1: And so I think they'll be able to move the
Speaker 1: ball relatively well. Um and the Jets are tough at home.
Speaker 1: I mean, Donald's played much better at home in his
Speaker 1: career and in the game that Donald has played this
Speaker 1: year at home, the Jets are four and two straight up.
Speaker 1: One of the losses was by one point to Buffalo.
Speaker 1: They've had wins over Dallas in Oakland and then the Giants,
Speaker 1: all his underdogs uh um and the only the only
Speaker 1: game they've lost at home by more than one point
Speaker 1: with Donald the quarterback was to New England, which you
Speaker 1: know that's gonna happen. So I I like the UH.
Speaker 1: I like the like the Jets, plus the point I
Speaker 1: could get straight up to be honest, what do we do?
Speaker 1: We sprinkle something, We sprinkle all the money line, Bob,
Speaker 1: you know how this works. Spreckle spreckley um. And you
Speaker 1: know it should be mentioned that the Jets against the
Speaker 1: Ravens on Thursday night, by the way, very thorough analysis, Bob.
Speaker 1: As we know and expect from you, as always, you
Speaker 1: always come through. The Jets should have been pretty much
Speaker 1: tied with the Ravens at halftime this past Thursday night.
Speaker 1: Jets on extra rest here. But you know they did
Speaker 1: Jets things, couldn't convert a fourth and one, missed the
Speaker 1: field goal. There were some other things that they did
Speaker 1: in that game that just shot themselves in the foot.
Speaker 1: Should have been much more competitive. You like the Jets.
Speaker 1: You're sprinkling on the money line. By the way. Steelers
Speaker 1: they're in the sixth A shin right now, currently in
Speaker 1: the a f C, but really no room for error.
Speaker 1: Currently hold the tiebreaker over the Titans because of one
Speaker 1: of excuse me, because of one fewer conference loss, but
Speaker 1: two games left, So that doesn't mean anything because the
Speaker 1: playoffs don't start right now. But Bob, you always have
Speaker 1: a statement when the teams in a must win situation, Well,
Speaker 1: if they were good enough to win when they wanted
Speaker 1: to win, they wouldn't be in a must win situation.
Speaker 1: That's right, And here's and here's the stat. Here's the stat.
Speaker 1: And I was gonna throw this out at some point
Speaker 1: mine as we'll do it here. This is not an
Speaker 1: absolute must win for Pittsburgh because they can lose and
Speaker 1: still be in the playoffs. But I do have an
Speaker 1: angle that that's that's sort of the same. The concept
Speaker 1: applies that Pittsburg getting money because they're in the must
Speaker 1: win and people are looking for excuses the better game. Well,
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh needs to win, so I'm gonna bet on them
Speaker 1: because they need to win. Like I said, needing to
Speaker 1: win doesn't mean you're going to win. Um. But anyway,
Speaker 1: teams that absolutely need to win or else they're eliminated
Speaker 1: from the playoffs. When facing teams that are out of
Speaker 1: playoff contention, they must win. Team are sixty two and
Speaker 1: one hundred against the spread over the years against teams
Speaker 1: that are out of the playoffs. This is what I
Speaker 1: said the other day. Oh sorry, yeah, no worse. People
Speaker 1: overreact to this must win. They're grasping for some reason
Speaker 1: to better game and must win as it seems like
Speaker 1: a good reason, and it's just it's just doesn't work,
Speaker 1: and there's usually value playing against these must win teams.
Speaker 1: UH in the fifth and week fifteen and six and
Speaker 1: sixteen and seven win an angle of five UM. So
Speaker 1: it doesn't officially apply here because Pittsburgh can still lose
Speaker 1: and still make the playoffs. But in in concept that
Speaker 1: sort of does apply here because I think we're getting
Speaker 1: line guy on the Jets because Pittsburgh gonna must win
Speaker 1: and people are betting Pittsburgh because of it. It's all
Speaker 1: my years spent with you, Bob. I knew to bring
Speaker 1: this up because again, and if you're in a must
Speaker 1: win situation, you must not be that good sixty two
Speaker 1: one against the spread, UH in an absolute must win situation.
Speaker 1: As Bob has pointed out, this is not exactly qualified
Speaker 1: because there is a scenario where Pittsburgh could lose and
Speaker 1: still get in. But these do apply in many situations
Speaker 1: weeks seen in particularly Week seventeen, will have these. Um yeah,
Speaker 1: Oakland this week, Oakland obviously you know they're still hanging on,
Speaker 1: but nonetheless they already must win against the Chargers, who
Speaker 1: are out. I believe Indie, Uh well, Indie Laws, so
Speaker 1: they're out Cleveland. Cleveland might be the other one. Uh
Speaker 1: or didn't or yeah, I think Cleveland's the other one.
Speaker 1: Baltimore is in the playoff. The Baltimore is oisle of
Speaker 1: the playoffs, right right right? The other the other side
Speaker 1: doesn't apply, That's right. It has to be against Oakland,
Speaker 1: I think is the only one this week. I'm dug
Speaker 1: into all of it, but next week there should be bunched. Todd,
Speaker 1: you were saying that you had brought this up on
Speaker 1: a numbers game yesterday to right, not even knowing that
Speaker 1: on a numbers game on on Visa and uh it's
Speaker 1: a the sports betting network. Um that network. Um, I
Speaker 1: was talking about this yesterday. I always think the must
Speaker 1: win thing is overblown, And now Bob comes and throws
Speaker 1: some stats on top of it, telling you there's sixty
Speaker 1: one and a hundred. So I am vindicated, Thank you, Bob.
Speaker 1: O problem and I've been tracked he missed by hand.
Speaker 1: And you know, it's really hard to look this up.
Speaker 1: And I'm tracking missed by hand just years ago. I
Speaker 1: just noticed it years ago, and I just tracked it
Speaker 1: by hand. I probably tracked this for for twenty years now.
Speaker 1: I haven't tracked it, but I used to notice it
Speaker 1: all the time because these idiots would get on the
Speaker 1: TV and be like, Wow, this team needs to win.
Speaker 1: The other thing is it's a football game. Is the
Speaker 1: guy the defensive back not gonna run as hard because
Speaker 1: he doesn't need it for the playoffs? The professionals too,
Speaker 1: They agree, and then there's pride and then people people,
Speaker 1: you know, team players want to win. That's why I
Speaker 1: said when when everybody's talking about Miami tanking, I was like, no,
Speaker 1: players don't tank organizations tank. Players want to play well.
Speaker 1: Players want to win, you know. And then Miami started
Speaker 1: winning some games. Yeah, exactly the same thing here. You
Speaker 1: guys should just hug it out. That was beautiful, Todd.
Speaker 1: I love you, Todd, love you. I mean. Dr Bob
Speaker 1: knows his stuff. As I've told you before, we have
Speaker 1: similar systems. He uses a model. I used the Losh model.
Speaker 1: The goolash model. That's right. But you're right also, Bob.
Speaker 1: The one quirk about that, what you're saying is there's
Speaker 1: no database that's gonna be able to pick up teams
Speaker 1: that absolutely need to win versus teams that don't because
Speaker 1: they're so specific, right, like yeah, because because like we
Speaker 1: said about Pittsburgh, they kind of do need to win,
Speaker 1: but it's not absolute, so it's a very specific specific
Speaker 1: Once it reminds me of this exactly, Gil is when
Speaker 1: they go, it's very tough to beat the team three
Speaker 1: times in one year, you know, which is ridiculu, ridiculous, ridiculous.
Speaker 1: It's another one that, like cousin, we must win. It's bullshit.
Speaker 1: Come come conference tournament time in college basketball, you know
Speaker 1: the double revenge team. People love to play the double
Speaker 1: revenge team in the conference tournament. Well, double revenge. Playing
Speaker 1: double revenge teams will get you to the poorhouse quicker
Speaker 1: than anything else, because if they were good, they would
Speaker 1: have won one of the first two games, right, Bob,
Speaker 1: They would have got revenge the first time because they
Speaker 1: had a chance in the second game and they didn't. Um. Yeah,
Speaker 1: double revenge were events teams in conference tournaments in basketball,
Speaker 1: or like I think blind or like against this press.
Speaker 1: Good luck with that, and Bob Kills conference week in basketball,
Speaker 1: that's a bread and butter for him. Todd, what's your
Speaker 1: first best bet? We'll go to you next. Okay, well
Speaker 1: I was. You know, we all know what I usually
Speaker 1: like to bet here, and that is my best bet.
Speaker 1: I always take Tampa over, and I like to stick
Speaker 1: it up the ass of the Sharps. The Sharps last week,
Speaker 1: in an unbelievable situation, they kept betting the Tampa Bay
Speaker 1: over down all the way until it got to forty five,
Speaker 1: even at the South Point on Sunday morning, and I
Speaker 1: was like, Okay, this is just getting ridiculous. Give me over.
Speaker 1: And I guess it was because they thought David Blow
Speaker 1: was the quarterback for Detroit or something. I don't know
Speaker 1: what they were thinking. But again, Tampa Bay came in
Speaker 1: for us, so you know, Tampa Bay over straight Textica.
Speaker 1: I don't want to go with Tampa Bay over just
Speaker 1: this second. I'm still mulling it over because that all
Speaker 1: the receivers are hurt now and stuff, and they're playing
Speaker 1: more of a quality team. Um, so I'm gonna pass
Speaker 1: on that right at this moment, I'm gonna go with
Speaker 1: your buffalo bills plus? What do I get? Six? Or
Speaker 1: six and a half? You get? Let me see here.
Speaker 1: It's an excellent question, Todd. You get because that's going
Speaker 1: to be one of mine too. You've been you've been listening. Uh,
Speaker 1: it's right in the middle. It's split, yeah, split, alright?
Speaker 1: So what do I get? Um, it's six? Is there's
Speaker 1: as many six as a there? Or six and a half?
Speaker 1: What should be the ruling book of choice? We've never
Speaker 1: had this situation come up yet this year, and I
Speaker 1: think it since it came from six and a half.
Speaker 1: It was six and a half, you know, and he
Speaker 1: was going over his bed and probably was six and
Speaker 1: a half. And it's really split down the middle here.
Speaker 1: So we'll give him six and a half. Is that
Speaker 1: a half minus fifteen? There you go, six and a
Speaker 1: half minus fifteen. I will take the bills plus six
Speaker 1: and a half. If you notice, I don't do it
Speaker 1: the way Mike Palm does it, where he takes the seven.
Speaker 1: In this situation, you'll be like, I'll take buffalo plus seven.
Speaker 1: And then when we have to remind non buffalo plus seven,
Speaker 1: it's buffalo plus okay, Anyways, I'll take the Buffalo Bills.
Speaker 1: And the reason I'll take the Buffalo Bills is because
Speaker 1: the New England Patriots. And here's here's a narrative that
Speaker 1: you're gonna hear a lot late in the season. Well,
Speaker 1: the Patriots do this all the time, and then of
Speaker 1: course it comes playoff time and they turn it on
Speaker 1: and Belichick win to the Super Bowl. Yes, that is
Speaker 1: the narrative, but folks, it doesn't usually work in this pattern.
Speaker 1: The pattern usually is the Patriots suck early and then
Speaker 1: Belichick cleans it up, coaches them up, and by the
Speaker 1: end of the year they win the Super Bowl. Not
Speaker 1: happening this year. They are not a talented football team
Speaker 1: at the wide out position. There's no one for Tommy
Speaker 1: Terrific to throw the ball to who is open. In
Speaker 1: the first game between these teams, New England had to
Speaker 1: hold on with all their dear life to barely squeak
Speaker 1: out a sixteen to ten win. They had to hold
Speaker 1: the Bills at the three yard line. The Bills played
Speaker 1: them straight up, nice and tight. The Bill's defense is outstanding.
Speaker 1: It's definitely only in the top five or six in
Speaker 1: the league. The Patriots have no one to throw the
Speaker 1: ball too, and Joshua Allen can run the football when
Speaker 1: all else fault fails through No. Granted, the Bills offense
Speaker 1: isn't good. I'm not here telling you the Builds offense
Speaker 1: is good. But it's good enough to stay within six
Speaker 1: and a half against the team that is offensively challenged
Speaker 1: as the Patriots are this year. They will not win
Speaker 1: the Super Bowl this year. You heard it here first,
Speaker 1: Thank you. I think I think we might have heard
Speaker 1: it before else heard too. Um, I'm gonna I'm gonna
Speaker 1: jump in, Jeff, because I too. On guessing lines on
Speaker 1: Monday with Chris Andrews, this was the first game I
Speaker 1: immediately gravitated towards. I guessed that New England would be
Speaker 1: a four and a half point favorite in this game.
Speaker 1: Instead it was six and a half. I'm own Buffalo
Speaker 1: to Buffalo clinch to playoff Berth With that win against
Speaker 1: the Steelers on Sunday night, New England clinched to playoff
Speaker 1: Berth for the eleventh straight season, which extends an NFL
Speaker 1: record against in Seneta, Patriots win the a f C
Speaker 1: East for the eleventh straight season, also by the way,
Speaker 1: with a win in either of their final two games,
Speaker 1: Bills would have to win out, Patriots would have to
Speaker 1: lose out for the Bills to win the A f
Speaker 1: C East. But all the reasons that Todd stated, uh,
Speaker 1: this is too many points. The New England defense, I
Speaker 1: get it, they're great and the Buffalo offense not that great.
Speaker 1: But the other side of the ball, you can say
Speaker 1: the exact same thing, the Buffalo defense versus the New
Speaker 1: England offense. You're giving me six and a half points
Speaker 1: here does not make any sense to me. A am reminded,
Speaker 1: since Bob is on the phone with us here, Bob
Speaker 1: once had a football guy. I won't mention any names,
Speaker 1: and Bobby will remember who I'm talking about who. His
Speaker 1: numbers always showed value against the New England Patriots, and
Speaker 1: the Patriots and the heyday of Belichick would constantly destroy
Speaker 1: anybody who felt that way from week to week. And
Speaker 1: you just had to throw out the numbers when it
Speaker 1: came to the Patriots because they were a different animal.
Speaker 1: I'm with you, though, Todd. I think this is a
Speaker 1: different Patriots animal then those Patriots teams. So give me
Speaker 1: the six and a half points. I'll take the Buffalo Bills. Bob,
Speaker 1: you remember the episode I was talking about, right, yeah, Yeah.
Speaker 1: The thing is they they years they outplayed the Patriots
Speaker 1: outplayed my my math model by two and a half
Speaker 1: the three points every single year. So I would just
Speaker 1: I would just add two and a half point to
Speaker 1: New England every week and well and that would take.
Speaker 1: That would keep me off on them most of the time. Oh,
Speaker 1: that's why you have to You have to go to
Speaker 1: the Google Losh model system, which you take. You take
Speaker 1: your model, then you throw in the Google losh of
Speaker 1: what you've seen, and you get yourself a mixture of
Speaker 1: a nice Google Losh of a system. Very interesting, very interesting. Jeff. Sorry,
Speaker 1: we'll get to you sooner next round. But what's your
Speaker 1: first best bet? You know, Gil, I'm going with with
Speaker 1: you and Todd just said each have the best bet
Speaker 1: of the week is the Buffalo Bills plus six and
Speaker 1: a half. Look, I I think everyone said said it
Speaker 1: the right way here. The Bill's defense is phenomenal. New
Speaker 1: England's offense isn't very good. New England's defense is phenomenal.
Speaker 1: Buffalo's offenses is the erratic. We'll put it that way,
Speaker 1: since uh Josh Allen might be the most erratic quarterback
Speaker 1: in the NFL, you could get a great jot shallon
Speaker 1: game and Buffalo actually wins this game out right, where
Speaker 1: you can get bad Josh Allen and Buffalo's defense is
Speaker 1: going to have to hold New England's offense down to
Speaker 1: really stay in the game. But I don't know how
Speaker 1: New England scoring in this game. The last time they
Speaker 1: scored sixteen points and sit and and a touchdown of
Speaker 1: that sixtheam was a block punt, so and the Bill
Speaker 1: should be able to keep this thing tight. I'm with
Speaker 1: you and Todd. I'm going Buffalo plus six and a half,
Speaker 1: which which means with all three of us having that
Speaker 1: as our best bets, look out everyone New England. The
Speaker 1: other way New England that didn't work out and said
Speaker 1: that happened to us last week. We all had Miami
Speaker 1: right and then that did not work out nicely at all.
Speaker 1: I think it'll be a different result with Buffalo this week.
Speaker 1: I really do Bob pick number two, sir, well, I
Speaker 1: am going to play a total. I'm gonna play Denver
Speaker 1: and Detroit under under thirty eight. I believe it is
Speaker 1: right now, We'll give you the thirty. Yeah, there's a
Speaker 1: couple of places at thirty seven and a half and
Speaker 1: mostly thirty eight. Um. Yeah, it's a situation where we
Speaker 1: both offensive lines are banged up. First off, David blow Um.
Speaker 1: You might remember he came out on fire in his
Speaker 1: first game on Thanksgiving through a couple of touchdowns in
Speaker 1: the first quarter. Since then, not so much's He's down
Speaker 1: to five point two yards per past play um through
Speaker 1: his three starts. And this is a this is a
Speaker 1: tough situation down two key receivers. Um with Marvin Jones,
Speaker 1: you know, maybe you know historically been one of the
Speaker 1: better wide receivers on you know, maybe Galada is the
Speaker 1: best wide receiver now, but Jones is a solid receiver,
Speaker 1: and the and the rookie Titan Hockinson's out. Also, that
Speaker 1: leaves in with Galladay and Amndolah. Well, Gallada fine because
Speaker 1: Chris Harris is on on the other side. So Chris
Speaker 1: Harris doesn't have to worry about two great wide receivers.
Speaker 1: He could just shadow Galada around and and and limit
Speaker 1: limit him. And then you've got Avendola in the flot
Speaker 1: and that slot receivers have a really tough time against
Speaker 1: Vic Sangio's defenses. Last year when he was with the Bears,
Speaker 1: they were one of the best in the league covering
Speaker 1: slot receivers, and this year, same thing with the Broncos,
Speaker 1: one of the best in the league and limiting slot receivers.
Speaker 1: I think Avendola is probably gonna struggle against this defense,
Speaker 1: and Galaday is gonna be shadowed by Harris, who's an
Speaker 1: All Pro who's done great against other other number one
Speaker 1: receivers UH for years. So I just I think I
Speaker 1: was gonna have a tough time finding open receivers in
Speaker 1: this game. Um So, that's one problem. Also, the offensive
Speaker 1: Linealgas has banged up. The left guard Jodals had a
Speaker 1: great season, He's fifth in the league and pass block
Speaker 1: win rate. He's now on injury reserve. The Factups also
Speaker 1: injured and out for the season. Um So, I think
Speaker 1: Shelby Harris UH that Denver's interior defensive lineman should be
Speaker 1: able to supply some pressure up the middle. And then
Speaker 1: you've got Von Miller coming from the outside against you know,
Speaker 1: you know, below average right tackle UH for for Troy
Speaker 1: Rick Wagner was terrible and he's also nursing a knee injury.
Speaker 1: So I think Denver is gonna have guys in the backfield,
Speaker 1: the middle, around the edge, and you know, and and
Speaker 1: and but I was not going to have his receivers
Speaker 1: opened like he normally would. Um So, I think they're
Speaker 1: gonna struggle offensively. In Denver, you had Drew Lock his
Speaker 1: staffs overall is pretty darned good completion six and a
Speaker 1: half yards per past play, but all that was in
Speaker 1: one game against Houston, had a magical, ridiculous game in
Speaker 1: one game. Um but the only average four point yards
Speaker 1: per past play against the Charters, and last week the
Speaker 1: average four point seven yards per past play against the Chiefs.
Speaker 1: And in general, rookie quarterbacks, the first two or three
Speaker 1: starts tend to play relatively better than they will going
Speaker 1: forward once the league has some tape on them. Then
Speaker 1: they get started to get shut down. That that might
Speaker 1: have started last week with with the Chiefs really locking
Speaker 1: down on Lock as as as I. As I just said,
Speaker 1: um so, I think Rock's gonna struggle as well. I
Speaker 1: just don't see. I mean, Courtland Sutton is the best
Speaker 1: wide receiver obviously, and the choice got a Pro Bowl
Speaker 1: cornerback as well, Darius Slay. So that's gonna be a
Speaker 1: neutral thing. And I think the only option is gonna
Speaker 1: be gonna have as Noah Fans has had. It's been
Speaker 1: great as a rook yet at the tight end position,
Speaker 1: and the lines don't defend tight ends well. So if
Speaker 1: you're in fantasy, pick up Noah Fans this week because
Speaker 1: I think he's gonna have a big game because I think, yeah,
Speaker 1: I think something's gonna be shut down and Fan's gonna
Speaker 1: be open most of the time. But that's one option,
Speaker 1: and he's gonna have pressure in his face most of
Speaker 1: the day. So I think it's both teams are gonna
Speaker 1: struggle offensively. And I come up with thirty four point
Speaker 1: eight points based on the based on the map model,
Speaker 1: even with Denverse safety cream Jackson out, I still on
Speaker 1: thirty four point eight points as a predicted total. F
Speaker 1: I'm going under going under a thirty four point eight
Speaker 1: your projection. Thirty eight is the number you get it at. Yeah,
Speaker 1: people are in their Fantasy Super Bowls, people still playing DFS.
Speaker 1: Detroit's owner we were talking about this on a numbers
Speaker 1: game this morning, Martha firestone Ford. She said, uh, they're
Speaker 1: keeping Matt Patricia next year, and her quote was, we
Speaker 1: expect to win. Those are our expectations, which I was
Speaker 1: telling Jeff this morning is the equivalent of me saying
Speaker 1: I like candy. Those are my likes. So interesting sentence construction.
Speaker 1: But they're going with Matt Patricia seven game losing streak
Speaker 1: for Matt Patricia and the Detroit Lines. They've lost ten
Speaker 1: of eleven. They started the year two oh and one.
Speaker 1: Matt Patricia earning apparently another year or at least the
Speaker 1: start of another year with the Detroit Lions. Todd your
Speaker 1: second pick, Well, I expect to win like a famous
Speaker 1: attire and carpet manufacturing magnates. Um, but I will take um.
Speaker 1: It's Arizona getting ten? Is that what you're you're seeing
Speaker 1: out there? Arizona is not getting ten, They're getting nine
Speaker 1: and a half. Nine and a half. Interesting, okay, Um,
Speaker 1: you know what? Screw give me Arizona anyways, Arizona. I
Speaker 1: like the discipline. You know, I'm showing tremendous discipline here, folks,
Speaker 1: and in in buying off of a key number in
Speaker 1: its back them getting I'm getting what we call chin stof.
Speaker 1: That's right, I'll get sins off the key number just
Speaker 1: because you know, I love I love this Kyler Murray
Speaker 1: kid I really do. I I was a big skeptic
Speaker 1: at first. I thought he was gonna be a bust
Speaker 1: too short. Uh maybe he was just overrated because Oklahoma
Speaker 1: has so much talent that you know, he could just
Speaker 1: throw with impunity. You know what. I'm a believer now
Speaker 1: this kid is good. He maybe you know, uh Lamar
Speaker 1: Jackson light, but he can definitely do things with his legs,
Speaker 1: and he can throw the football. And I think he's
Speaker 1: a pretty He's a much more cerebral quarterback, I think
Speaker 1: than people are giving him credit for. And um, you know,
Speaker 1: I've just been impressed with him all the way around. Uh.
Speaker 1: They had a real nice win against Cleveland last week. Um,
Speaker 1: I think that Seattle whooped him up real bad the
Speaker 1: first game, and that's one thing that does concern me
Speaker 1: a little bit. But since then, I think, you know,
Speaker 1: this Arizona team is getting more and more familiar with
Speaker 1: the Klingsbury offense, and and uh, you know, they just
Speaker 1: become in my opinion, they've they've improved a lot as
Speaker 1: the year has gone by. They played San Francisco um
Speaker 1: real tight in that game, despite the fact that Fats
Speaker 1: So through the ball in the end zone and it
Speaker 1: looked like the game, but I think Arizona is much
Speaker 1: better and Seattle. You know, Seattle is a good team,
Speaker 1: but there's a little bit of smoke and mirrors in
Speaker 1: the Seattle stuff. I feel like Seattle is a is
Speaker 1: a good team. I don't know if they're a very
Speaker 1: good team, and I think they're being considered a very
Speaker 1: good team here as opposed to just a good team. Um,
Speaker 1: nine and a half points is not as many as ten.
Speaker 1: Uh my math model says nine and a half is
Speaker 1: a little less than ten. But nonetheless, I'll be undisciplined
Speaker 1: here and take Kyler Murray. I think I think my
Speaker 1: favorite part of that analysis was when you said the
Speaker 1: Klingsbury offense Cliff Klingsbury. Um, uh Cliff Kingsbury of course
Speaker 1: ingy um, sorry uh, Todd, Im I just would like
Speaker 1: to call a little bullshit here. Here's what I think
Speaker 1: is happening. You are clinging to what a one game
Speaker 1: lead over me and our full season a t S
Speaker 1: standings is that the correct lead. You believe correct standings
Speaker 1: are gilly Ice one to Champ one. So one game lead.
Speaker 1: You have a one game lead where neither one of
Speaker 1: us are killing it. Let's be clear, but you have
Speaker 1: a one game lead over me. Todd has managed to
Speaker 1: mimic my first two picks that I made on guessing lines.
Speaker 1: I didn't even I didn't even hear guessing. Uh yeah,
Speaker 1: I see what you're doing playing out the string. Arizona
Speaker 1: is my second pick. So I'm gonna step in. And
Speaker 1: if I were you, i'd be very careful because I
Speaker 1: really didn't listen to it. And the fact that we're
Speaker 1: both coming on the same things without hearing each other
Speaker 1: is a bad sign. Yes, yes, worse for me than
Speaker 1: for you. I have a feeling, Toddy. Nine and a
Speaker 1: half is what I'm taking on the Cardinals for all
Speaker 1: the reasons Todd stated, I don't want to be labor it.
Speaker 1: I'm with you on Seattle. Look, a lot of these
Speaker 1: teams in the NFC. This is a really aberrational year.
Speaker 1: Four teams are eleven and three in the NFC, and
Speaker 1: in a fifth team Minnesota could make This could be
Speaker 1: in the playoffs as a sixth seed at twelve and
Speaker 1: four if they win out, and then of course there's
Speaker 1: the NFC East leader. But like, I don't think Green
Speaker 1: Bay's any is that great At eleven and three, Seattle,
Speaker 1: and I love Russell Wilson. I don't think they're that great.
Speaker 1: I mean that honestly. I get the Lamar Jackson m
Speaker 1: v P thing, But Russell Wilson every year does it
Speaker 1: with nothing. By the way, That's why I love when
Speaker 1: people are killing Tom Brady or or making excuses for
Speaker 1: Tom Brady this year, Well, he doesn't have any wide receivers.
Speaker 1: You don't have any offensive line. Russell Wilson never has
Speaker 1: that any year. But I like Arizona. Kyler Murray is
Speaker 1: really scary to bet against, and nine and a half
Speaker 1: is a lot here. And it's also one of those
Speaker 1: scenarios that Todd likes to point out with you know, hey,
Speaker 1: even if Seattle goes up, the back door should be
Speaker 1: wide open as well. So Arizona for me plus nine
Speaker 1: and a half or excuse me, yes, plus nine and
Speaker 1: a half Jeff number two. It's on Monday night. I'm
Speaker 1: to take the Packers getting five and a half from Minnesota.
Speaker 1: Dalvin Cook's regular season seems to be over, as that
Speaker 1: shoulder injury finally caught up to him in Los Angeles.
Speaker 1: It doesn't look like Madison status is great either. It
Speaker 1: looks like Mike Boone is gonna get the bulkload of
Speaker 1: the carries from Minnesota, and that that frightens me because
Speaker 1: Cook is so electric and Madison has showing the ability
Speaker 1: to actually fill in very well when he's been called
Speaker 1: upon this year. And it's still Kirk Cousins in a
Speaker 1: prime time game, in a game where you in Minnesota's
Speaker 1: gonna have the playoffs locked up. It's very It's it's
Speaker 1: basically impossible for them to hop green Bay even with
Speaker 1: a win, because the Packers would have to throw a
Speaker 1: game to the Terrible Lions the following week. But at
Speaker 1: some point Aaron Rodgers is going to have a big
Speaker 1: game again. It We're waiting. It has been. It has
Speaker 1: been stagnant for Rogers for a few weeks going now.
Speaker 1: And I know Minnesota should have won the first meeting,
Speaker 1: even though they fill down in three touchdowns the Green
Speaker 1: Bay and Lamba all the way back in Week two.
Speaker 1: But I like green Bay in this spot getting five
Speaker 1: and a half points. This feels like a field goal
Speaker 1: game in the end, and I wouldn't be shocked if
Speaker 1: green Bay wins the game out right. So I'll take
Speaker 1: the Packers plus the five and a half Uh, it's
Speaker 1: solely on the quarterbacks, even though I know Cousins statistically
Speaker 1: has been every bit as good or even better than
Speaker 1: Rogers since the early season struggles for Cousins. But I'm
Speaker 1: going Green Bay plus the five and a half Monday Night.
Speaker 1: Are we sprinkling on the money line as well? Jeff?
Speaker 1: I think we very well may when this is all
Speaker 1: said and done, Gil, I want to see if this
Speaker 1: thing gets uh, gets even further up as we go along.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna need a yes or no on that. We'll
Speaker 1: go yes, sprinkle trickle, sprinkle me mine, all right? Best
Speaker 1: be going to answer. I'm going to need an answer.
Speaker 1: Best bet number three? Bob, what he got? I don't
Speaker 1: really have one, but I'm gonna give you one anyway.
Speaker 1: I'm just looking over all these games like maybe you know,
Speaker 1: the first two I really like, but this one, I'm like,
Speaker 1: you know what, I'm gonna go completely contrary here, and
Speaker 1: normally my analysis is very uh. I think it's um
Speaker 1: you know, leads you in the direction that I'm going
Speaker 1: most of the time, and I have a really good
Speaker 1: fact to back up my pick, and this one I
Speaker 1: have none. I'm gonna take Tampa Bay. Um. There without
Speaker 1: Mike Evans, there without Chris Godwin, didn't matter last week.
Speaker 1: Papistic is making everyone look good at the wide receiver position.
Speaker 1: If he doesn't throw interceptions, very dangerous to of course,
Speaker 1: he's probably gonna throw a one or two interceptions. But
Speaker 1: even with that being cooked into the model, I still
Speaker 1: think this line is a little too high. And Houston
Speaker 1: come up the big win last week as an underdog
Speaker 1: even division game. It's a little bit of a let
Speaker 1: down spot going on the road against the team that
Speaker 1: they may not respect. And you know, more contrary stuff,
Speaker 1: Texas Will Fuller's back on the field, They're looking good.
Speaker 1: There's no real reason for a fundamental standpoint here to
Speaker 1: take Tampa Bay. Yet my model likes Tampa Bay even
Speaker 1: with all the injury adjustments, and you know a bunch
Speaker 1: of contrary situations that I follow that also favorite Tampa Bay.
Speaker 1: So I'm probably not going to make this the best
Speaker 1: best for my clients, but I like Tampa Bay um
Speaker 1: as as a third best be here on the show.
Speaker 1: Let me let me just explain to you what happened.
Speaker 1: That was the doctor Bob football picks equivalent of Bob
Speaker 1: streaking through a mall. Like that is as naked as
Speaker 1: he gets with a pick without any sort of real
Speaker 1: nothing to back it up, nothing to back nothing to
Speaker 1: back it up, not even underwear. Todd, my model model
Speaker 1: like it. I'm really, let's let's adjust for Waffall. Okay,
Speaker 1: let's adjust to that. Let's adjust down for this, let's
Speaker 1: adjust to that. My model still likes Tampa. I'm like, Okay,
Speaker 1: do I trust it? I guess my model has been good.
Speaker 1: I gotta trust it. So I'm taking Tampa. Jamis Winston
Speaker 1: first quarterback in the history of the NFL two straight
Speaker 1: weeks over four d fifty yards passing. Jamis what Tampa Bay.
Speaker 1: We were talking with Lombardi. I was talking with Lombardi
Speaker 1: this week on a numbers game at Visa in about
Speaker 1: how Tampa now is in this situation with Jamie is like, now,
Speaker 1: what do you do? Do you keep him? Do you
Speaker 1: sign him to this massive contract? Do you draft somebody?
Speaker 1: Is the person you draft gonna be better than Jamis? Like?
Speaker 1: What do you do there? In that Jared Goff, Kirk
Speaker 1: Cousins no man's land of Oh God, do we push
Speaker 1: all our chips in the middle of the table or
Speaker 1: do we cut ties? What the heck do we do
Speaker 1: with this guy? Yeah, you know what, Gil, You're better
Speaker 1: off with the guy that throws that many interceptions been
Speaker 1: so inconsistent. You can't pay him huge, huge salary because
Speaker 1: then you're just gonna make the rest of the team worse.
Speaker 1: I think you're better off getting a journeyman quarterback for
Speaker 1: a low salary and spending money on the rest of
Speaker 1: the team. That's more efficient way of making your team
Speaker 1: better than paying a mediocre to possibly you know, better
Speaker 1: than average quarterback a ton of money and then not
Speaker 1: having money to to build around him. So no doubt,
Speaker 1: But I say that about I said that about Kirk
Speaker 1: Cousins and about Jared at golf, and you know that
Speaker 1: didn't stop the Vikings and rams, respectively, because you only
Speaker 1: win Super Bowls with a Hall of Fame quarterback, and
Speaker 1: I don't think any of the ones we mentioned are
Speaker 1: or are going to be. Of course, time will tell,
Speaker 1: And the only other way is a quarterback on a
Speaker 1: rookie deal where he overperforms and you can pay everybody else,
Speaker 1: just like you were talking about Allah Russell Wilson with
Speaker 1: the Seattle Seahawks. So what about Trent dilfor Trent Dilfor.
Speaker 1: Trent Dilford and Brad Johnson are the last two examples
Speaker 1: of quarterbacks who buck what I just said that is
Speaker 1: now seventeen and nineteen years ago. So you can what
Speaker 1: about Trent Dilfor and what about Brad Johnson all you want,
Speaker 1: but it just doesn't happen anymore. Toddy number three. I
Speaker 1: think the word Bob was looking for when he was
Speaker 1: talking about how he usually has a lot to back
Speaker 1: up his pick is he has a voluminous data. Voluminous
Speaker 1: is the word I believe. But we didn't see is Bucks.
Speaker 1: Is Bucks getting plus three? Um? Yes, Bucks plus three,
Speaker 1: plus three and extra yeah with limited with smaller juice, Yeah, yes, Okay,
Speaker 1: So I just wanted to get that down to the
Speaker 1: erect there. Okay, So I'm I'm much like Bob. My
Speaker 1: googlesh model does not have anything delicious for the third pick.
Speaker 1: But what I'm gonna do is I'm gonna go with
Speaker 1: the over in the New York Giants against the Washington
Speaker 1: Climb Haskins at forty one, and I'll tell you why. UM,
Speaker 1: forty one is not a big number to me. I
Speaker 1: think it's kind of low on the low side. For
Speaker 1: the NFL. I notice when you've got teams in the
Speaker 1: NFL late in the season that are just kind of
Speaker 1: playing out the string, that the defensive intensity seems to
Speaker 1: wane a little bit. Um, you know. I think it's
Speaker 1: probably because defense is much harder to play, you know,
Speaker 1: of course, and see that late in games when games
Speaker 1: are decided, a lot of times you get touchdowns just
Speaker 1: because you know they don't care whether to give them
Speaker 1: the backdoor touch on. The feel is a little less
Speaker 1: intensity in games that are you know, between absolute you know,
Speaker 1: also rans. So that's one thing going for me. The
Speaker 1: other thing is Clem Hapkins has started to move the
Speaker 1: ball a little bit more than than he did early on,
Speaker 1: and um, he's been halfway decent. I call him Clem.
Speaker 1: I know that's not his real name, but um climb
Speaker 1: not as as as you know early and Giants defense
Speaker 1: has never impressed me. I think they're just absolutely putrid.
Speaker 1: So I don't see why at home Clem can't get
Speaker 1: you some points. And for the Giants, they're going against
Speaker 1: the Redskins defense. It's halfway okay, But sometimes the Giants
Speaker 1: can score like they did against the mediocre Miami defense
Speaker 1: last week. So, uh, you know, forty one, it's not
Speaker 1: that high in number. Give me, if you ever have
Speaker 1: a child a son, I demand that you name him Clem.
Speaker 1: I think what we'll probably Clem Shlomo wishnem Ton, of course,
Speaker 1: referring to Dwayne Haskins, but he likes to call Dwayne
Speaker 1: Haskins Clem Haskins. Former Washington bullet In Minnesota Golden Gophers
Speaker 1: head coach. You know that game is very important. You
Speaker 1: know that why that game is very important? Todd wish
Speaker 1: Now Giants, Redskins. Um, No, it is the Chase Young Bowl. Now.
Speaker 1: I know that the Dolphins will have something to say
Speaker 1: about this as well. But currently you've got those three
Speaker 1: teams at three and eleven. Bengal is gonna draft first.
Speaker 1: Bengals are gonna probably pick Joe Burrow, Ohio kid. After all,
Speaker 1: they benched Andy Dalton just to see what they had
Speaker 1: behind them all year. This is for Chase Young. To me,
Speaker 1: whoever loses this game is it a better position than
Speaker 1: the winner? And Chase Young might be the only sure
Speaker 1: thing in this coming NFL draft. So big game with
Speaker 1: that implication, But Todd is going over forty one Giants
Speaker 1: Redskins Jeffrey. Wait wait, something was gonna say something to
Speaker 1: back me up? Please? Yeah? Can I? Well, I'm not sure.
Speaker 1: So I have a database. And as you were talking
Speaker 1: about this and too bad, she was like, that's interesting.
Speaker 1: I'm going to look this up. So I set the parameters.
Speaker 1: I decided, what are bad teams less than less than
Speaker 1: a four percentage at this point of the season, would
Speaker 1: that be considered bad? That's why I putty, but both
Speaker 1: teams less than four percentage, so less than six and nine.
Speaker 1: So and I did the final two weeks of the
Speaker 1: season sixteen seventeen, and I decided to look that up,
Speaker 1: and as it turns out, two interesting trends revealed themselves.
Speaker 1: So I just randomly put this in to to sub
Speaker 1: four teams in the final two weeks of the season,
Speaker 1: since the home team in such games is forty nine
Speaker 1: and nineteen against the spread go figures. So maybe it's
Speaker 1: the road team that doesn't care and their home the
Speaker 1: bad home team, maybe like let me have home fans here,
Speaker 1: that's here us on and the road teams like let's
Speaker 1: just play out the spring and get out of here anyway.
Speaker 1: But also looking at the total because that's what you're interested.
Speaker 1: These games are also forty seven and twenty one under really,
Speaker 1: so it's sort of sort of bucks your it doesn't sum. Yeah,
Speaker 1: so they have it two stub four teams in the
Speaker 1: final two weeks of the season. The home team is
Speaker 1: two against the spread and the under forty seven one
Speaker 1: and two. Wow, those are random and pretty pretty ran. Yeah.
Speaker 1: I just plugged it in just out of curiosity and boom,
Speaker 1: it's there's no backfitting in that. Just plug it in
Speaker 1: and that's what you get. So interesting. So I guess
Speaker 1: in that case, maybe you do the Giants team total under.
Speaker 1: I don't know when you can buy those two things.
Speaker 1: I guess that's what you get, the road road team
Speaker 1: not scoring a long um. But nonetheless, I just thought
Speaker 1: i'd throw that in because I do have the power
Speaker 1: of the database here on behalf of Redskins fans everywhere.
Speaker 1: Let's hope that that home team thing doesn't happen. Give
Speaker 1: me Chase Young, Jeff, what's number three? I'm gonna go
Speaker 1: over in Baltimore and Cleveland at fort nine. The first
Speaker 1: time these teams met, Cleveland scored forty on Baltimore. I
Speaker 1: know what it feels like. It was about forty five
Speaker 1: years ago, not just a week four of this year. Uh. Look,
Speaker 1: Baltimore's offense is completely different than what it was back
Speaker 1: in Week four. Jackson obviously after the first four weeks
Speaker 1: of the year where he struggled, especially weeks two, three,
Speaker 1: and four after a ridiculous game against the Miami Dolphins
Speaker 1: freshman team week one. But look, I could Baltimore is
Speaker 1: coming off of a weird performance where they had the
Speaker 1: worst special teams game of the entire NFL season by
Speaker 1: d v O A uh Aaron Shotson company that tweeted
Speaker 1: that out earlier in the week. It actually dropped Baltimore
Speaker 1: special teams ranking all the way to number twelve, which
Speaker 1: is amazing. Uh if we're just one game out of
Speaker 1: the top five. But this feels like Baltimore, Baltimore is
Speaker 1: gonna be able to name their score. Cleveland I think
Speaker 1: is gonna be Cleveland's gonna score a little bit in
Speaker 1: this game. Offensively, I'm gonna go over to forty nine.
Speaker 1: This feels like it's something like we saw on Thursday
Speaker 1: night with Jets in Baltimore. Like, uh, and I'll go
Speaker 1: over to forty nine and a half. How can I
Speaker 1: inter stude in forty nine and a half, Jeff over, tho,
Speaker 1: I have I pulled the Mike palm. I'm sorry, guys. Yes,
Speaker 1: I'll go over forty nine and a half. I like
Speaker 1: that too, I I I this feels like Baltimore is
Speaker 1: gonna score in the forties and Cleveland's going to score.
Speaker 1: I just don't want to like ten with a with
Speaker 1: a road team in the NFL. Yeah, forty nine app
Speaker 1: school would make go about those Baltimore special teams. That
Speaker 1: was part of the problem against the Jets too. They
Speaker 1: gave up all kinds of kick and punt returns. They
Speaker 1: had a punt blocked if I'm not mistaken by thinking
Speaker 1: about the right game. Um, yes, a touchdown. Yeah, so
Speaker 1: you know that was a big deal Thursday night too,
Speaker 1: where you know here they are crushing teams and yet
Speaker 1: their special teams are abysmal at times. Um, my final
Speaker 1: pick is going to be something also with thin analysis,
Speaker 1: just to keep with the theme of our final picks
Speaker 1: here in Week sixteen, slim pickens. But it's the de
Speaker 1: facto NFC EAS Championship and I'm taking the Dallas Cowboys,
Speaker 1: and the Cowboys are now just giving one and a
Speaker 1: half now the reason part of the reason for this drop.
Speaker 1: Although it did open at one, then it ticked upwards
Speaker 1: and then it's back down to one and a half.
Speaker 1: Dak Prescott limited in practice yesterday, so there was some
Speaker 1: controversy as to, you know, the extent of Dax injuries.
Speaker 1: Jason Garrett says he's not doing whatever he wants to
Speaker 1: do at this point. But I don't think anybody really
Speaker 1: thinks Cooper Rush is gonna show up for this game.
Speaker 1: Cowboys win, they're in the playoffs, they win the nfcas
Speaker 1: Eagles win, they still need to win their final game
Speaker 1: in week seventeen. This is nothing more for me than
Speaker 1: sheer talent versus talent. Philly is a bare bones, skeletal
Speaker 1: version of the Philadelphia Eagles, with players like Word and Boston,
Speaker 1: names that no one had really counted on as recently
Speaker 1: as two three weeks ago participating. And then you've got
Speaker 1: the Dallas Cowboys, who have all the talent in the world.
Speaker 1: And really, and this is a big if if only
Speaker 1: Jason Garrett and Kellen Moore we get their acts together
Speaker 1: and actually coach them up, I think they're clearly the
Speaker 1: better football team. I think if the Cowboys are ever
Speaker 1: going to show themselves. It's in a game like this.
Speaker 1: There's no excuse for them to lose a football game
Speaker 1: like this. It is in Philly, It's gonna be a
Speaker 1: tough atmosphere, but I think the Cowboys bunch them in
Speaker 1: the mouth. They could win this quite handling. Give me
Speaker 1: the Cowboys giving the point and a half against the Eagles.
Speaker 1: Both teams seven and seven, and again Cowboys win there
Speaker 1: in Eagles win, they gotta win Week seventeen. So Cowboys
Speaker 1: are my final pick before before we do the teasers.
Speaker 1: Mike just texted me his picks, so you want me
Speaker 1: to tell him quick kill, We've got real bad news
Speaker 1: here because he likes the Bills plus six and a
Speaker 1: half as well guaranteed loser. Um Broncos. Uh, he likes
Speaker 1: the Broncos. What are the Broncos minus what seven? Minus seven? Yeah? Okay,
Speaker 1: minus seven. I'm sure he'd like it at six and
Speaker 1: a half. And the Chiefs he likes at okay, the
Speaker 1: Chiefs at minus six at Chicago. And then his teaser,
Speaker 1: he said, is the Eagles, which would be the Eagles
Speaker 1: at plus uh seven and a half Eagles plus seven
Speaker 1: and a half and he wants to take. Also the
Speaker 1: what's the other side of the teaser? Here? The other
Speaker 1: side of the teasers Eagles and Jets, which would be
Speaker 1: Jets plus nine right, yes, okay makes sense? Nine is
Speaker 1: Stanford long esk teasers. We know how those will going
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Speaker 1: all right, Bob, what's your two teams six pointer of
Speaker 1: the week. I'm gonna go with Tennessee and I'm gonna
Speaker 1: go with the Giant on that trend that goes against
Speaker 1: the Giants, I think I think with the Giants getting
Speaker 1: eight and a half, I think both are getting eight
Speaker 1: and a half, is that it's not about right Tennessee
Speaker 1: and the Giants. Giants will get eight and a half
Speaker 1: Tennessee gets a half. Yes, that is correct for both
Speaker 1: Todd teaser. Bob, you got me real nervous now because
Speaker 1: the part of the reason I kind of like that
Speaker 1: over was because I thought Clem Haskins would be able
Speaker 1: to score, and he's decided that. I was worried about
Speaker 1: the scoring. But now you're telling me that that road
Speaker 1: teams are crappy when they stink on, you know, late
Speaker 1: in the season. It's got me a little nervous that
Speaker 1: old Eli is only going to give us like ten points,
Speaker 1: so I'm gonna stick with my over forty one. But
Speaker 1: I am much more nervous than I was before. Um,
Speaker 1: So the teaser I'm gonna go with is um give
Speaker 1: me the g men as well. Um, I just you know,
Speaker 1: can the can the can the Redskins win one by
Speaker 1: more than than eight and a half of them or
Speaker 1: I don't know. I mean, that's not usually what they do.
Speaker 1: So let me let me have the g Men plus
Speaker 1: the eight and a half, and then let me have
Speaker 1: the I mean, this is not the correct thing to do,
Speaker 1: but give me the Buffalo Bills plus the twelve and
Speaker 1: a half, because you know what, I just don't see
Speaker 1: him getting blown out in a low scoring game. It's amazing, almost,
Speaker 1: step in, Jeff, because we just round robins the three
Speaker 1: of us. Because my teas or was Tennessee and Buffalo,
Speaker 1: so bob led Tennessee and the Giants. Todd goes Giants
Speaker 1: and Buffalo, and I go Tennessee and Buffalo. So just
Speaker 1: really round robin those three teams in teasers. What's yours?
Speaker 1: It's wonderful. I have not none of the teams in
Speaker 1: mine that have been mentioned so far. Give me the
Speaker 1: Niners down to two a half from six and a
Speaker 1: half and give me the Denver Broncos minus one. I'll
Speaker 1: go with that. Where Broncos Okay, you know what is
Speaker 1: you know what is yours? Before we get Jeff's what
Speaker 1: was yours? I grete it down. Mine was Tennessee and Buffalo. Okay,
Speaker 1: So Bill's plus twelve and a half and Tennessee plus
Speaker 1: eight and a half? Correct? And Jeff, Jeff, Jeff's what
Speaker 1: forty Niners and the Broncos San Francisco minus a half
Speaker 1: and Denver he gets at minus one? So Niners minus
Speaker 1: a half and Denver minus one? Well done, Jeff? Alright,
Speaker 1: final two questions, gentlemen, We've asked them for years. First
Speaker 1: of all, the big favorites on the board, which do
Speaker 1: you believe is the most likely to lose? Outright? Now,
Speaker 1: this is one of these weeks where the pickings, well, no,
Speaker 1: there's enough. Actually, I was gonna say, if I do
Speaker 1: seven or more, we got we got four choices. If
Speaker 1: I drop it down to six and a half. If
Speaker 1: I drop it down to six and a half, that
Speaker 1: adds like three more games. Do we vote on six
Speaker 1: and a half? Decide? All right, we'll do six. We'll
Speaker 1: do six and a half. Make it easier here will
Speaker 1: include New England as a six and a half point
Speaker 1: favorite over Buffalo, San Francisco six and a half point
Speaker 1: favorite over the Rams. Both of those games are on Saturday.
Speaker 1: Then on Sunday, Baltimore ten point favorites at Cleveland, Indianapolis
Speaker 1: six and a half point favorites at home against Carolina
Speaker 1: Atlanta seven and a half point favorites. Call it, uh yeah,
Speaker 1: barely seven and a half point favorites at home against
Speaker 1: Jacksonville Chargers six and a half or seven. I think
Speaker 1: it's seven now. Consensus home favorites again in Oakland, Denver
Speaker 1: seven point favorites at home against Detroit. Seattle nine and
Speaker 1: a half point favorites against Arizona. A lot of choices.
Speaker 1: Which of those big favorites is most likely to lose? Outright?
Speaker 1: In your opinion, Bob, I think the Colts. I am
Speaker 1: just not big on the Colts, and I don't mind
Speaker 1: Greer at quarterback for Carolina. You know, Greer had the
Speaker 1: the highest catchable long ball rate in college and college
Speaker 1: football last year, so he was an accurate long ball thrower,
Speaker 1: and maybe he catches one of those long, Maybe get
Speaker 1: one of those long balls, get McCaffrey doing his thing.
Speaker 1: And I don't think the Colts offense is much to
Speaker 1: speak of, and I just think they're most prone to
Speaker 1: get upset. I like that choice. I loved Will Greer
Speaker 1: at West Virginia and that Colt's performance against the Saints
Speaker 1: on Monday night. I think I said this on the
Speaker 1: show the next day. I don't care if you take
Speaker 1: a Dolphins team, Redskins, Giants, Bengals, pick your horrible team
Speaker 1: in the NFL, Lions, whatever. That Colt's performance against the
Speaker 1: Saints was maybe the most list single game performance I've
Speaker 1: ever seen this year in the NFL. They were terrible.
Speaker 1: It's like they didn't get off the plane. I do
Speaker 1: not hate that play at all. Todd, same question. I'm
Speaker 1: a little worried about Will Greer because he reminds me
Speaker 1: a little bit of Drew Lock a lot of armed talent,
Speaker 1: not exactly cerebral lee enhanced. But anyways, Hey, he could
Speaker 1: have a good game, right Bob, So I'm gonna go
Speaker 1: with the uh. I think the Anthony Lennards could could
Speaker 1: lose this week, um only because they're the Anthony Lennards.
Speaker 1: They've got the gelical quarterback and um, you know him,
Speaker 1: he loves to you know, a guy helps him up
Speaker 1: and then he still screams in the guy's face. Very spiritual, feel,
Speaker 1: very spiritual. So um, I'm really getting sick and tired
Speaker 1: of his act and the Anthony Lynn act. And why
Speaker 1: not they could lose, you know, they're a joke team.
Speaker 1: I'm just tired of the Chargers, so I could see
Speaker 1: the Raiders beat him. Jeffrey, I'm going with Jacksonville. And
Speaker 1: I know I've said first game Gil that that the
Speaker 1: Jaguars have given up, but don't underestimate how much all
Speaker 1: those players hate Tom Coughlin. And Tom Coughlin obviously got caned. Now.
Speaker 1: Of course he doesn't coach the team, but his ridiculous,
Speaker 1: old school, ridiculous cloud has been seeped over that team
Speaker 1: this whole year. He's gone. Atlanta has been so bizarro
Speaker 1: this year, with winning at San Francisco and winning at
Speaker 1: New Orleans this year and then stinking the rest of
Speaker 1: the year, it would make total sense to me of Jacksonville. Uh,
Speaker 1: somehow pulled one out of their behinds and managed to
Speaker 1: win that game. So I'll go Jacksonville. What that. Wow.
Speaker 1: I did not see that one coming, especially from you, Jeff,
Speaker 1: who who again had pronounced Jacksonville dead a couple of
Speaker 1: weeks back. But I get the reasoning. I am going
Speaker 1: with everybody, the New England Patriots. I am going with
Speaker 1: the New England Patriots. I know, I know it's Bill
Speaker 1: Belichick and the Patriots. Patriots six and a half point
Speaker 1: favorites total thirty six and a half just by that conflation,
Speaker 1: that might be the answer, But I really believe that
Speaker 1: the Patriots are vulnerable here. I don't think Tom Brady
Speaker 1: is any good anymore. I really don't whether that's because
Speaker 1: of the wide receivers and the offensive line. He's part
Speaker 1: of it as well. It's probably all three things. I
Speaker 1: think the Buffalo defense reeks havoc in this game. I
Speaker 1: think New England is the answer to that question. Indianapolis
Speaker 1: would be a close second, but I think New England
Speaker 1: is a is the choice for me, which is probably
Speaker 1: my boldest answer to that question of all time on
Speaker 1: the megapod. But I really do think they're the answer
Speaker 1: given those choices. Final one. We live in a bizarro world.
Speaker 1: We are forced to bet fifteen of these games on
Speaker 1: the side, but we're allowed one free pass one game.
Speaker 1: We're on the side. You're like, I want no part
Speaker 1: of that whatsoever. Maybe you don't use that word. I
Speaker 1: don't know, but you get the idea, Bob, what would
Speaker 1: be the game? I think Cincinnati Miami. I mean, that's
Speaker 1: probably the easy choice. I make it. I make it pick.
Speaker 1: Who knows what the motivation is free there these teams. Uh,
Speaker 1: I probably stay with him that one. You make it
Speaker 1: pick in the market, makes it pick todd I'm gonna
Speaker 1: go with um Carolina, Indy. I just don't have a
Speaker 1: good feel for what is Carolina. You know, sometimes they're good,
Speaker 1: sometimes they're bad. Indianapolis. Sometimes they're good, sometimes they're bad.
Speaker 1: It's just too much. I don't know what's going on, Jeffrey.
Speaker 1: The Los Angeles Raiders and the San Diego Chargers in
Speaker 1: the game. I'm staying away from. No idea what either
Speaker 1: those teams can possible. They're capable of anything in each direction,
Speaker 1: both teams, So I'll stay away from Raiders Chargers. Todds
Speaker 1: and Chef made the error of calling them the San
Speaker 1: Diego Chargers. Do you have your Charger song ready to
Speaker 1: go today? Are you ready? I've tried to do this
Speaker 1: many times. But I'll be honest with you. When I
Speaker 1: do a song, I have to be a tremendously good performance.
Speaker 1: I don't do heck. I feel that the San Diego
Speaker 1: Charger song, if any of you have heard it, is
Speaker 1: a very difficult song to sing. It has a lot
Speaker 1: of the song to it. It has a cadelic nous.
Speaker 1: So instead of that, in lieu of that, I will
Speaker 1: sing Keep It Coming Love by Casey and the Sunshine Band.
Speaker 1: Keep It Come and Love, keep it come and Love.
Speaker 1: Don't stop it now, stop no, no, stop it now.
Speaker 1: Just a complete random substitution that was outstanding. Todd, you
Speaker 1: saved yourself. By the way. When I was a little boy,
Speaker 1: Casey and the Sunshine Band was my favorite group of
Speaker 1: all time. I was if you watch something great, go
Speaker 1: on YouTube and put in keep It Coming Love Casey
Speaker 1: and the Sunshine And there is a video of Casey
Speaker 1: looking as coked out as a human being could possibly
Speaker 1: be phenomenal, dancing dancing in green aqua pants that don't fit,
Speaker 1: and two and two ladies behind him dancing with it
Speaker 1: is just absolutely man. H w you Casey. When I
Speaker 1: was a little kid, first of all, No one told
Speaker 1: me that all these songs were about sex, right, I
Speaker 1: had no idea, But that's the way. Get down tonight,
Speaker 1: boogie shoes come on. Oh, by the way, there's another
Speaker 1: one where Casey and Sunshine. He is the entire band.
Speaker 1: It's him and a whole bunch of black guys and
Speaker 1: girls and one other white guy. And they they're wearing tuxedos,
Speaker 1: white tuxedos that are bedazzled with no shirts. I'm wearing.
Speaker 1: I'm wearing that right now. A matter of fact, who'd
Speaker 1: I love that? Look? So todd? Is that? What you do?
Speaker 1: You just YouTube get watch Casey and the Sunshine videos,
Speaker 1: Like how did you get on that? Well? Something like
Speaker 1: I like to go on YouTube sometimes and start just
Speaker 1: either I'll be like watching like old clips of Letterman
Speaker 1: or something, and then sometimes I'll start going over into
Speaker 1: like old songs, and I found that one, and then
Speaker 1: of course it always like suggests a whole bunch of
Speaker 1: other songs for you. And so then I'm off and
Speaker 1: Casey and the Sunshine band because I love Casey and Sunshine.
Speaker 1: There's so many good good So me and my brother
Speaker 1: had a cassette tape. Bob by the way, aren't you
Speaker 1: glad you did? You agree to do this podcast? And
Speaker 1: me and my me and my brother had a cassette
Speaker 1: tape where I must have been like five years old
Speaker 1: and he was nine years old and we were singing
Speaker 1: Casey in the Sunshine Band songs and it got when
Speaker 1: my car got stolen in San Francisco. I think we
Speaker 1: lost that cassette. But I will say this about their
Speaker 1: music catalog. Laugh all you will about their songs. But
Speaker 1: I'm your Boogeyman is a jam. How about the shoes
Speaker 1: the shoes song, Boogie Shoes. Yeah, Boogie Shoes is another one.
Speaker 1: You know, I saw Casey in the Sunshine Band in
Speaker 1: San Francisco. You know they have the city you know,
Speaker 1: New Year's Eve gala every year in downtown. Yes. Uh,
Speaker 1: they played in the same tent. Now they had lots
Speaker 1: of different acts all around all around the area. They
Speaker 1: play in the same tent with Shaka Khan. Now that
Speaker 1: was a fun night. Well what this is like old
Speaker 1: Casey in the Sunshine Man, Like, how old were they
Speaker 1: at the time? This was years ago alright, so not
Speaker 1: crazy old but still old. Yeah, thank you for that, Todd.
Speaker 1: Where were we? Where did we answer? All? The questions,
Speaker 1: Oh no, we didn't answer this. Oh I need to
Speaker 1: answer it, that's right. My choice would be Todd's choice
Speaker 1: Carolina Indianapolis. I have zero feel for either football team.
Speaker 1: Carolina is about as middle of the road as against.
Speaker 1: Their defense is abysmal in Indianapolis didn't show up at
Speaker 1: all last week, so who knows with a game like that,
Speaker 1: So Caroline Indianapolis my choice as well. Gentlemen, thank you
Speaker 1: as always, appreciate the time, Todd as always, jeff thank
Speaker 1: you for filling in for Mikey. Thank you, Jeffrey, appreciate it.
Speaker 1: Thank thank you for having me Gil. That's always a
Speaker 1: pleasure to do. That's always a pleasure to have you
Speaker 1: and Bob man Uh, you are the best man. I
Speaker 1: so appreciate you doing this, and thanks for playing along
Speaker 1: with our Casey in the Sunshine band aside and actually
Speaker 1: throw it in that you saw them in a tent. Todd,
Speaker 1: take us out with keep it coming love, keep it
Speaker 1: coming low, keep it coming low, don't stop it stop, no,
Speaker 1: no stop it. Todd, just give me the intro of
Speaker 1: the musical intro that you were doing at the binning
Speaker 1: so I could take us out you when you went that.
Speaker 1: Just give me that and do it. Thanks everybody for listening.
Speaker 1: Good luck with all your bets this week. Week sixty
Speaker 1: in the National Football League,