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Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Surveillance. I suspect we're in one of

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Speaker 1: the darkest periods of central banking since the nineteen thirties.

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Speaker 1: Right now, they're just grasping for solutions. There are an

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Speaker 1: awful lot of antagonists who don't like the FETE, who

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Speaker 1: want occur in the FATS authority. If demand doesn't respond

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Speaker 1: to low prices were in the end of the rl

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Speaker 1: age by definition, then exactly the highlight. There's no terminal

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Speaker 1: value and we're very worried about that. Bloomberg Surveillance your

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Speaker 1: link to the world of economics, finance and investment on

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio. Good Morning I Bychael McKey along with Tom Keene.

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Speaker 1: It is seven am on Wall Street and seven am

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Speaker 1: in Ottawa today on Surveillance of Bloomberg Exclusive, John Michael

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Speaker 1: Faite sits down with the Prime Minister of Canada, Justin Trudeau.

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Speaker 1: Before that, central banks, the Swiss, the Norwegians have spoken,

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Speaker 1: so have the Indonesians. The Swiss National Bank stands pat.

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Speaker 1: The Norangins Bank cuts a quarter point to fifty basis points.

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Speaker 1: Next up the Bank of England. Not yet on summertime,

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Speaker 1: so at eight am rather than now ahead of that decision.

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Speaker 1: The Footsie is down twenty eight points half eight percent.

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Speaker 1: The pound right now is trading higher one forty three

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Speaker 1: forty four fallout from yelling yesterday. We'll talk about that.

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Speaker 1: The Norwegian Corona weekends against the dollar eight point three

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Speaker 1: nine five five right now. In terms of equities, the

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Speaker 1: stock six hundred in Europe is down by five points,

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Speaker 1: that's one and a half percent today. The Docks is

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Speaker 1: off a hundred and eighty six points one point nine

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Speaker 1: percent today. It may be all reaction to the FED

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Speaker 1: here in the US, it certainly is. The SMP E

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Speaker 1: many features down eight points now. I wanna take that back.

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Speaker 1: Caterpillar out with an interesting earning warning today, cutting first

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Speaker 1: quarter earnings guidance but retaining full years. So they're sort

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Speaker 1: of moving money around, and we can talk about that

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Speaker 1: later in the program. At SMP features down eight points,

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Speaker 1: four tenths of a percent. Down Features down sixty five

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Speaker 1: uh four tenths of a percent. Nasdaq features off by

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Speaker 1: twenty that's half a percent on the day. The real

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Speaker 1: move today in thick bonds, the tenure note yield all

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Speaker 1: way down to one point eight six one point three

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Speaker 1: three for your five year and the two year note.

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Speaker 1: Remember this was trading at ninety nine yesterday, now a

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Speaker 1: one basis points. Uh. The dollar index has fallen below

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Speaker 1: ninety five. It was at ninety nine a couple of

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Speaker 1: days ago, ninety four point eight three seven this morning,

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Speaker 1: and we are seeing that reflected in currency pairs, particularly

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Speaker 1: the majors the yen one eleven twenty nine. Uh. Kitchus

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Speaker 1: from Sachen telling us this morning, this really really really

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Speaker 1: hurtsomics and the euro Mario dragging getting no love from

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Speaker 1: Janet yell In one thirteen twenty seven. This morning it

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Speaker 1: is up by about a percentage point. Soccer blue so blue,

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Speaker 1: as they would say, Oh, he's Italian. I don't know

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Speaker 1: what the Italian version of S blue is French. I'm

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Speaker 1: sure many of our our listeners speaking Italiancoln Stephen Freeman

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Speaker 1: is our first guest. He's senior investment strategist with BNP

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Speaker 1: Parrybout Investment Partners, most recently director of market Analysis at

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Speaker 1: the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. So Stephen analyzed

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Speaker 1: this for us. What was the FED thinking? If you

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Speaker 1: look at US indicators based on the Fed's forecast, you

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Speaker 1: could say they should have raised rates. Instead, they stand

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Speaker 1: pat and cut their forecasts for rates going forward exactly.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, I think that's one of the key takeaways

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Speaker 1: from yesterday's FOMC events. First of all, I think we're

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Speaker 1: getting even more confirmation at the global economy matters more

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Speaker 1: and more to the Fed, more than it ever has,

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Speaker 1: and they are clearly a little bit more concerned about

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Speaker 1: downside risks posed by the global environment. I think that's

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Speaker 1: the first takeaway from me. The second takeaway from me

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Speaker 1: is that their concerns about these downside of us must

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Speaker 1: must actually be fairly significant at present, if they are

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Speaker 1: willing to delay raising rates, if they're willing to signal

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Speaker 1: a flatter path of interest rates at a time when

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Speaker 1: inflation has actually been firming for a few months now

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Speaker 1: and the labor market is doing quite well. It's kind

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Speaker 1: of interesting, is even leaving aside the fall of the

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Speaker 1: dollar from the decision time yesterday, the dollar had in

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Speaker 1: recent weeks fallen back to lower based on the Dollar

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Speaker 1: index and the trade weighted dollar lower than it was

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Speaker 1: before they raised rates. So what exactly is she afraid of? Well,

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Speaker 1: I think, and she was actually very clear about this

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Speaker 1: and in the press, breathing more so than she's been

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Speaker 1: in the past, rattling off a number of countries where

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Speaker 1: there are signs that growth is slowing, from I m

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Speaker 1: broadly to China, to the Eurozone, to Japan, and she's

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Speaker 1: very worried that this is going to rebound back on

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Speaker 1: the US in terms of overall consumption and investment. Our

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Speaker 1: team is so good at getting the right person at

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Speaker 1: the right time. I am thrilled you're here this morning.

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Speaker 1: You worked at Bank of International Settlements, as Mike mentions

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Speaker 1: The New York said, you have the most eclectic eco

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Speaker 1: remics to be looking at monetary economics Wesleyan and in

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Speaker 1: Russian studies and and such. Are we losing our degrees

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Speaker 1: of freedom? Is what we really heard in the Central

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Speaker 1: Bank Derby, Norway, Indonesia today. Uh the chair yelling, we've

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Speaker 1: got Governor Karney this morning. Are we losing our optionality

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Speaker 1: and our degrees of freedom because of dampened economic growth?

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Speaker 1: I think to some degree that that is correct. I

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Speaker 1: think what the committee is coming to terms with is

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Speaker 1: the fact that the US is a smaller part of

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Speaker 1: global growth and than it has ever been. Uh, that

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Speaker 1: it is difficult for the FED to be raising rates

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Speaker 1: when global growth is low, when other central banks are

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Speaker 1: are easing policy. So in some sense, I think that's correct.

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Speaker 1: I gotta ask if you think the move in the

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Speaker 1: dollar is going to be sustained, because if you're Janet

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Speaker 1: yelling and you're worried about and the rest of the

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Speaker 1: world and you're pushing the dollar down, it's not going

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Speaker 1: to be hell helping exactly. And I think this is

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Speaker 1: something that we're seeing a lot more UH discussion and

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Speaker 1: UH across central banks about. I think there's been a

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Speaker 1: UH an informal understanding across central banks that they need

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Speaker 1: to be very careful in how they set policy, how

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Speaker 1: they communicate policy in a way that is indstabilizing two

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Speaker 1: currency markets. And I think this has been saying that's

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Speaker 1: actually been a source of concern for investors over the

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Speaker 1: last few months, that central banks might actually be acting

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Speaker 1: in destabilizing ways. UH. Some of the terms to the

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Speaker 1: currency war, I think that term is probably a bit

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Speaker 1: too strong. But unless not for the media, not for

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Speaker 1: the media, we love and currency wars. But Stephen Friedman

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Speaker 1: with us with B and P. Perry about just the

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Speaker 1: perfect guest to have on a most interesting morning this Thursday,

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Speaker 1: bluework surveillance brought you by Investco. Investor believes it's time

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Speaker 1: to say goodbye to the traditional sixty forties stock bon

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Speaker 1: futures of negative nine my down futures negative sixties seven,

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Speaker 1: yet has been stable after a huge yen strength over

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Speaker 1: the last UH on a on a clock basis thirty

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Speaker 1: or forty hours. Yeah, we're down to one eleven twenty four.

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Speaker 1: That is not going to, as Mr Jukes said, not

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Speaker 1: going to help. So is this an overreaction we're seeing

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Speaker 1: in the markets in the currency market Stephen to what

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Speaker 1: the Fed is actually doing since they didn't do anything

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Speaker 1: uh or is this going to be sustained? Well, I'm

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Speaker 1: not sure if the movement in currencies will be sustained

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Speaker 1: too much. I think what we're seeing is a sensible

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Speaker 1: reaction to the fact that the Committee seems less willing

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Speaker 1: to plow ahead with with a steady diet of of

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Speaker 1: rate increases going forward. So they are signaling a more

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Speaker 1: calmninative stance of policy, which I think should be positive

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Speaker 1: for risk assets UM and I think that's one of

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Speaker 1: the reasons why we're seeing some dollar weakness now, is

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Speaker 1: is that is that their goal? Do they want to

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Speaker 1: keep forcing people into risk? Well, I think they do

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Speaker 1: want financial conditions, not just in the US but abroad

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Speaker 1: to remain relatively accommodative. And with that comes um a

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Speaker 1: desire to see at least ability in the stock market,

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Speaker 1: see stability and credit spreads. And to the extent that

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Speaker 1: we do have a rally and risk ass thatt s

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Speaker 1: that can actually help their posicles. We have a word

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Speaker 1: I heard yesterday David blanche Flower up at Dartmouth mention

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Speaker 1: is the same word this morning. There's a lot of

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Speaker 1: hoping going on. Hoping to me, I usually circle it

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Speaker 1: in any finance reading. His hoping is usually hold onto

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Speaker 1: your wallet, you're gonna lose money, prepared to lose money.

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Speaker 1: What are policymakers hoping for right now? What's the hope for?

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Speaker 1: Cherry yelling? So, I think the hope at this point,

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Speaker 1: and I think that's why I think you're you're wording

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Speaker 1: is very appropriate one because I think uh as Kim

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Speaker 1: Gaydner used to say, hope is not a strategy. We

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Speaker 1: have to thank you. We can't just be about hope. Um.

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Speaker 1: I think that what they're hoping for is that the

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Speaker 1: actions by central banks abroad will help to stabilize the

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Speaker 1: global economy, and that that means that the general resilience

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Speaker 1: that we're seeing in the US economy can be sustained.

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Speaker 1: Um So, I think while they're still uncertain about that, that

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Speaker 1: that means that they're going to be very very uh,

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Speaker 1: cautious in raising rates. Does it work? Well? You know,

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Speaker 1: it's a good one to expect these questions this morning.

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Speaker 1: Does it work? So? Um, I think it works more

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Speaker 1: than raising rates. Let me put it to that way.

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Speaker 1: I don't think they have a choice but to go

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Speaker 1: very very slowly. At this point. We have to keep

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Speaker 1: in mind that the economy has been very resilient in

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Speaker 1: recent years. Growth has been around two two and a

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Speaker 1: half percent, which doesn't seem impressive, but it's actually above

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Speaker 1: trend in it just very quickly or on an initial basis.

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Speaker 1: Kearney's way out front on slowing things down. If Yelling's

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Speaker 1: catching up with Kearney, what's he say in an hour

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Speaker 1: or so? Uh? I mean, so, what where are we going?

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Speaker 1: So this is a really interesting question because I think

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Speaker 1: it gets down into the fact that, uh, there is

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Speaker 1: still this sense in the public and the investing community

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Speaker 1: that central banks are working somewhat across purposes with one another.

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Speaker 1: And I think this is what we're seeing central banks

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Speaker 1: trying to combat more and more. And I think this

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Speaker 1: is why we're seeing, for example, the Bank of Japan

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Speaker 1: refraining from the time being, uh, from further stimulus. We're

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Speaker 1: seeing the ECB thinking about very creative ways to implement

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Speaker 1: new stimulus that does not have much of an impact.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna come back. Stephen Freeman was thrilled that he's

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Speaker 1: with us some BMP perry. It's it's not like an

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Speaker 1: historic day, It's just like it's it's a twisted sord day,

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Speaker 1: an international Yeah, very poetic. Care. I've had no sleep

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Speaker 1: for three days. That is a little bit to do

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Speaker 1: with it. Futures to negative eight down, futures negative the end.

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Speaker 1: As we mentioned one eleven nine, Let's check in with

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Speaker 1: like a bar and get the latest world of national

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Speaker 1: headlines now Michael Mike time, thank you very much. President

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Speaker 1: Barack Obama's pick for the Supreme Court vacancy lands to

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Speaker 1: visit two top Democrats today. Yesterday, President Obama nominated sixty

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Speaker 1: three year old of Pellet Court Judge Merrick Garland. The

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Speaker 1: White House says after a two week Senate recess, Garland

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Speaker 1: will meet with the Judiciary Committee Chairman Chuck Grasslett. Some

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Speaker 1: Republican senators have refused to even meet with an Obama nominee.

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Speaker 1: A New York pizza shop owner will be sentenced in

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Speaker 1: Federal court in Rochester, New York today for trying to

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Speaker 1: recruit people for the Islamic State Group move Fit ELFG

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Speaker 1: pleaded guilty in December to attempting to provide material support

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Speaker 1: to a terrorist organization. Federal safety officials and major automakers

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Speaker 1: will announce today and that they've agreed to make automatic

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Speaker 1: emergency breaking standard equipment on most cars by two Global

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Speaker 1: News twenty four hours a day, powered by our two

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Speaker 1: hundred journalists more than one fifty news bureaus from around

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Speaker 1: the world. Now Michael bar Tom and Michael, thanks so much.

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