Speaker 1: The best of the busts. Welcome in everybody, the Fantasy Pros.
Speaker 1: This is the Fantasy Baseball Podcast. It is Meet Joey
Speaker 1: p joe Piece Apa, and today it's about the bus.
Speaker 1: That's right, it's the Monday we're recording this.
Speaker 2: Everybody's grouchy, and everybody's always got problems on Mondays, and
Speaker 2: we've got problems with some players. And to help break
Speaker 2: down the all bust team for twenty twenty three is
Speaker 2: of course my podcast partner, The Wels. You can follow
Speaker 2: him on the Twitter machine at is it the Welsh
Speaker 2: and we brought in a big gun today from Rodo
Speaker 2: Wire and of course from Fangrafts, the one, the Only
Speaker 2: Jason Collett. Follow him on Twitter at Jason Collett and
Speaker 2: Jason Collette. I saw you not that long ago and
Speaker 2: we had some fun talk. We were buying back into
Speaker 2: Gavin Lux. It was a simpler time about a week ago.
Speaker 2: And now I gotta tell you, I love you. You're
Speaker 2: one of my favorite people, but I hate your list.
Speaker 2: A lot of your players are some of my favorite
Speaker 2: guys going into twenty twenty three. So one of us
Speaker 2: is either going to be really right or really wrong.
Speaker 2: And somebody's gonna be depressed.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I figured it was gonna create some controversy. Look
Speaker 3: at that. I wanted to make sure I picked different
Speaker 3: names than what Welch has as I didn't want to
Speaker 3: be like, oh, that was my guy. So I wanted
Speaker 3: to go through some things and I was like, you know,
Speaker 3: some of these are going to be like what are
Speaker 3: you thinking? Jay, So we'll see. I hope I give
Speaker 3: you at least something to think about with a completely
Speaker 3: pissing yap.
Speaker 4: You know, Jason, I kind of wish we could have, like,
Speaker 4: had you get to this first, so we could have
Speaker 4: seen what those names look like on here, because there
Speaker 4: are two on here that make me very upset, very
Speaker 4: very upset. It also maybe means that you would have
Speaker 4: had some of my guys, which I'm kind of excited
Speaker 4: to see.
Speaker 5: And for everybody.
Speaker 4: I also attempted to pick like a few different names.
Speaker 4: We've talked a lot about Bus recently. You may know
Speaker 4: some of them that I may have taken. I went
Speaker 4: in a little bit of a different direction for some
Speaker 4: different bus. But Joe, sometimes I can't help myself with
Speaker 4: a few of these guys. I just have to continuously
Speaker 4: keep calling them bus and when they're amazing this year,
Speaker 4: everyone will remind.
Speaker 3: Me, well, let's she's what I have a huge problem
Speaker 3: with because he's on two of my rosters already. So
Speaker 3: I'm my god, I've got to hear what you have
Speaker 3: to say there.
Speaker 1: Oh well, well, why's what we get out of the way.
Speaker 2: I mean, because you have basically every chance you've had,
Speaker 2: you've taken shots.
Speaker 1: At Dalton var Show. So let's just get that out
Speaker 1: of the way.
Speaker 2: Clean slate for those who might not have ever heard
Speaker 2: a podcast here between the two of us, give them
Speaker 2: why Dalton var Show is going to be a bust
Speaker 2: at twenty twenty three.
Speaker 1: A catcher.
Speaker 4: I'm trying to be like level about it, like Dalton
Speaker 4: Varshow is still going to be a very fine player.
Speaker 4: My biggest issue has been where he's going. NFBC drafts
Speaker 4: lead a lot of this, and you know, pointing out
Speaker 4: like if you go to Fantasy pros ADP is manipulated
Speaker 4: by all of the places.
Speaker 5: It's an aggregate system.
Speaker 4: NFBC plays a big role in that, and NFBC pushes
Speaker 4: up catchers, and I think that generally pushes these guys
Speaker 4: up to a level that I just don't think I'm
Speaker 4: super comfortable with because I think the position is kind
Speaker 4: of deep, obviously pull heavy. I think he's going to
Speaker 4: struggle versus lefties. There's the potential that I'm not going
Speaker 4: to say there's going to be any platoons or anything
Speaker 4: like that, but you never know if he's going to
Speaker 4: get out versus lefties. I don't know if he's going
Speaker 4: to run as much. And I've exhaustingly said that. You know,
Speaker 4: Toronto was in the bottom third of the league and
Speaker 4: stolen attempts, while the Diamondbacks were like the top five
Speaker 4: overall teams in stolen base attempt They're gonna go up
Speaker 4: in general, but those stolen bases come down. The average
Speaker 4: kind of stinks a little bit, and the homers pop
Speaker 4: down a little bit. Why would that be more valuable
Speaker 4: by twenty rounds in Adlie Rutchman. Why would that be
Speaker 4: more valuable than fifty rounds on Salvador Perez or going
Speaker 4: even further. I could just keep listening catcher names. I'd
Speaker 4: rather not make the investment early on, even though he
Speaker 4: does qualify at another position. So I think, like top
Speaker 4: fifty five is just bust material for me. It's gonna
Speaker 4: be really hard I think for him to return that value.
Speaker 4: I say all of that, and then he's gonna be
Speaker 4: you know, thirty twenty and I'll just eat pro.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's funny you should mention Adlie Rutchman in that
Speaker 2: conversation because that's the guy that collect chos at A
Speaker 2: good friend, Ryan Warmley, the worm, mister Oriole himself is
Speaker 2: not gonna be happy about this. But Adley Rushman's certainly
Speaker 2: a name that's been you know, highly towed the last
Speaker 2: few years. You know, got some time in last year,
Speaker 2: looked pretty good doing it.
Speaker 1: But it's always the difficulty.
Speaker 2: Of young catchers, I feel like, who have to manage
Speaker 2: a pitching staff and really learn all that, where sometimes
Speaker 2: their offense takes a second fiddle or the back seat
Speaker 2: to that. So is that you're concern with Rushman or
Speaker 2: is something else he saw last year in his performance
Speaker 2: that worries you about twenty twenty three?
Speaker 3: Yeah? Really, no more what you just talked about there?
Speaker 3: And if so, there was an excellent interview a couple
Speaker 3: of weeks ago, our buddy you know, Sarah's interviewed Stephen
Speaker 3: Vote on the podcast and Steve and you know he
Speaker 3: now Vote is now working with the Seattle organization. But
Speaker 3: he talked about the amount of work that went into
Speaker 3: every game and all the prep of what he had
Speaker 3: to do every single game, and Joe, as you said,
Speaker 3: a lot of these rookie catchers, they have to do
Speaker 3: all of that stuff and hitting is almost like a
Speaker 3: secondary thing. And this is no slight against Adlee Rudchman.
Speaker 3: I love him as a real baseball player. I just
Speaker 3: think there's a gap between the real and the fantasy
Speaker 3: that's not being addressed in the current marketplace right now.
Speaker 3: And that's only so when you look at his ADP
Speaker 3: it's high and Welch you said it with I'd rather
Speaker 3: have Perez all day long, and Perez is going that
Speaker 3: is going lower than Rutchman is. And I would say
Speaker 3: another point to your point about the catchers being inflated.
Speaker 3: Let's not forget between between varshow between Lendes, between Langoliers,
Speaker 3: and between Garver. We potentially have four catchers that are
Speaker 3: either being drafted because we know they're not going to
Speaker 3: play catcher or in hopes that they're going to play catch.
Speaker 3: So it's like Langoliers is a projected CE one, but
Speaker 3: you can't draft him as a C one in most
Speaker 3: in most formats right now, and so you're seeing that
Speaker 3: value get pushed up. You're seeing Mitch Garver because he's
Speaker 3: already caught as of yesterday two games in spring just
Speaker 3: need you know, need to get the ten game in NFBC,
Speaker 3: need to get into five in some leagues, some leagues
Speaker 3: even one, and so you're like, let's do this. So
Speaker 3: some of that catchup value is coming up. But for Retchman,
Speaker 3: I see a lot of I see a lot of
Speaker 3: that gap where it's like he's a great real player
Speaker 3: and I saw him play a number of times coming
Speaker 3: here through Charlotte last year before he got promoted with that,
Speaker 3: but I'm not where the marketplace is on him. And
Speaker 3: that's why I have zero I have zero shares and
Speaker 3: all the drafts I've done.
Speaker 4: And the only edition I want to make to this
Speaker 4: is I am generally any top one hundred catcher is
Speaker 4: just not going to be my thing. So I'm just
Speaker 4: not going to have interested and interested in catcher one. Yeah,
Speaker 4: So don't like I pick on bar Show a little bit,
Speaker 4: but that's just kind of like all of them.
Speaker 5: Give me Wilson Contreras, give me William Contreras. Give me
Speaker 5: a contraris.
Speaker 3: Highest ketcher I've taken so far this whole draft season.
Speaker 3: With Sean Murphy in an auction, I paid sixteen and
Speaker 3: I was a keeper league. It's I'm with you, guys.
Speaker 3: I tend I'm not if you if somebody, if you
Speaker 3: see my draft board, I took a catcher on the
Speaker 3: top one hundred. It was either because JT. Real Mutle
Speaker 3: fell quite a bit or somebody's kidnapped me.
Speaker 2: Right, got to do a wellness check on Collette. Let's
Speaker 2: go to the first basement here collect long did you
Speaker 2: start with this one? Who is your twenty twenty three
Speaker 2: bust at that position?
Speaker 1: Potentially?
Speaker 3: So I went with Nathaniel low here with Texas, and
Speaker 3: when you look at him last year he hit over
Speaker 3: three hundred, kind of out of nowhere, and what you
Speaker 3: look at you have to take a look at the
Speaker 3: spray chart, and this is one of those things where
Speaker 3: I look at the law of unintended consequences with the
Speaker 3: new defensive rules. If you look at the way he
Speaker 3: hit last year, he had a lot of soft contact
Speaker 3: the other direction because the defense was giving it to him,
Speaker 3: and he's like, fine, I'll take it. But there you
Speaker 3: see a lot of infield hits going that direction where
Speaker 3: there's going to be a fielder this year. And you
Speaker 3: look at the aggregate projections for him, most people have
Speaker 3: him down in the two sixties. And that's that's quite
Speaker 3: a drop from a guy to hit over three hundred
Speaker 3: last year and the aggregates have them down where they
Speaker 3: have them with that and one of the weaknesses that's
Speaker 3: been in his profile. And I would say this applies
Speaker 3: to his brother too. I would assume they have the
Speaker 3: same hitting coach because they have the exact same swing.
Speaker 3: You know, it's like they have struggled with velocity up
Speaker 3: And so when I saw Nathaniel Lowe breaking out last year,
Speaker 3: I'm like, okay, it has to be he closed his hole. Well,
Speaker 3: you go look at the data. He hasn't the league
Speaker 3: just for whatever reason, it wasn't pitching him there as much,
Speaker 3: and he was deciding, okay, I'm just gonna slap it
Speaker 3: the other way and give me what the defense gives me.
Speaker 3: So somebody who took that kind of stuff forward in
Speaker 3: one year, I'm concerned about taking that kind of step back.
Speaker 3: I don't really see it playing out in the marketplace
Speaker 3: right now. But that's somebody that I've been avoiding myself.
Speaker 2: Look, it's a player that in first pase is not
Speaker 2: super deep. This year, you know, there's certainly a drop
Speaker 2: off and looking at last year's status.
Speaker 1: You hope that it holds.
Speaker 2: But you make a good point, like there's a lot
Speaker 2: of reason to believe that maybe the batting average of
Speaker 2: very least does not now Welsh.
Speaker 1: When we look at the first basement on.
Speaker 2: Your all Bus team, it's another player who might be
Speaker 2: moving up in his lineup too, which could affect potentially
Speaker 2: his RBI totals. He saw him hidden in the two
Speaker 2: spot this weekend over there for the Philadelphia Phillies. Let's
Speaker 2: talk about Reee Hoskins.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I picked on Reese simply because well, obviously a
Speaker 4: couple of reasons, but like one of the biggest ones
Speaker 4: is this injury that he had the knee surgery in December.
Speaker 4: I believe he's getting in a game where he got
Speaker 4: in Sunday or it's today, it's like right around right now,
Speaker 4: he's just getting into spring, which is a little bit
Speaker 4: of a setback, which I don't love. Lineup potentially moving up,
Speaker 4: you could look at RBI opportunities come down. Also, XBA
Speaker 4: we expected batting average is lower than his batting averages
Speaker 4: past year. He's had an increase in his k percentage
Speaker 4: for three straight years, hard hit percentage kind of gone down,
Speaker 4: exit average, exit velocity kind of leveling down about a
Speaker 4: mile per hour. So you take all those into consideration,
Speaker 4: and you look at where he's being drafted, you say,
Speaker 4: first base is in deep.
Speaker 5: I don't want to call it.
Speaker 4: I don't want to make it like, oh, you could
Speaker 4: just wait forever. But I think it's like you're shopping
Speaker 4: in different pools. So it's like, if you know you're
Speaker 4: shopping in, you know, a high end department store, you're
Speaker 4: getting in the top end, middle end, You're gonna start
Speaker 4: shopping at Target. But if, like, if you're comfortable shopping
Speaker 4: at Walmart, I think you can just be comfortable shopping
Speaker 4: at Walmart with these first Basement and I think there's
Speaker 4: like six or seven of them, and Ree Hoskins isn't one.
Speaker 4: His cost comes at nine as far as first baseman,
Speaker 4: and he's kind of the upper tier of Walmart first Basement.
Speaker 4: I think you've got Christian Walker C J.
Speaker 5: Kron. I really like my Ryan Mount Castle and Rowdy Telez.
Speaker 4: I just would rather move away from Reese Cott Hoskins
Speaker 4: with some of those decreases, with the injury stuff that's
Speaker 4: going on, and pay a much cheaper price, potentially three
Speaker 4: or four or five first basement lower for what I
Speaker 4: think would be relatively the same production. I mean, he
Speaker 4: hadn't expected batting average it was under two forty. He
Speaker 4: hit two forty. I believe it was two thirty six.
Speaker 4: I can probably get that out of Rowdy Teles with
Speaker 4: a bigger home run potential and probably pretty close to
Speaker 4: run in RBI totals, and it'll probably fifty or sixty
Speaker 4: picks later. So I'm gonna pass on Reee Hoskins and
Speaker 4: he's going to be my all bus first base.
Speaker 3: Well, you can also play Devil's advocate and said maybe
Speaker 3: he performed like that with some of his expected stats
Speaker 3: last year because of that injury. He was trying to
Speaker 3: play through that, so you know what happens there. I
Speaker 3: would also not rule out you know, as you were
Speaker 3: talking about the different tiers of shopping for first base.
Speaker 1: You know this.
Speaker 3: We're also in the season where daily news events move things.
Speaker 3: It's like a week ago, Oh no, Jose Miranda. The
Speaker 3: shoulder is problematic, and then he hits two home runs
Speaker 3: the other day, so okay, now we're all back in
Speaker 3: Jose Miranda. So and oh he plays first and third,
Speaker 3: so that's all fun too. So daily events move the
Speaker 3: needle on something. So as we alarm McGavin lux's acl.
Speaker 1: Well, sometimes they move them in a very very negative direction.
Speaker 5: Room down.
Speaker 2: Let's go to second base, gentlemen, and let's talk about
Speaker 2: a guy who actually had a bounce back year last year,
Speaker 2: but apparently the Welsh isn't buying it. Who's the second
Speaker 2: basement on your bus team?
Speaker 3: Okay?
Speaker 4: So I actually really struggle with this one because of
Speaker 4: what we've talked about before. The position is not great.
Speaker 4: It really kind of stinks towards the middle end. So
Speaker 4: it's like, do I want to pick on the top guys.
Speaker 4: I kind of thought about Ozzie Albi's because Jason is
Speaker 4: about to just ruin my day and ruin everybody's with
Speaker 4: all the positive things we talked about with the guy
Speaker 4: I love more than anybody, So can you really have
Speaker 4: post one hundred and second basemen that are going to
Speaker 4: kind of flop? So my point was picking on with
Speaker 4: Labor Torres is. You know, he's got a lot of competition.
Speaker 4: That team seems like they are really opening up the
Speaker 4: possibility of Anthony Volpi and Oswald Perrazza being there sooner
Speaker 4: rather than later. There's a lot of trade rumors that
Speaker 4: were going on. I don't know if they fully fully
Speaker 4: believe in what he did last year. Again, you have
Speaker 4: another instance of like an expected batting average, it is
Speaker 4: quite a bit lower. He hit the ball a ton harder,
Speaker 4: but where he's going as far as second basement is
Speaker 4: the eighth overall second basement. So really the bus side
Speaker 4: of this is like feeling comfortable and not taking one
Speaker 4: of those guys to get Glabor Torres. I think it's
Speaker 4: going to be a big disappointment. So when I'm looking
Speaker 4: at these guys, what I want.
Speaker 5: Because there's a big tear drop here.
Speaker 4: By the way, seven and up is inside the top
Speaker 4: one hundred eighty fifth according to Fantasy pros overall is
Speaker 4: Andre Simenez, and that's a seventh second basement. Then you
Speaker 4: drop like twenty spots and you go into the next guy,
Speaker 4: which is Glabor Torres. Would I rather pay a close
Speaker 4: to one hundred price with that type of gap for Torres,
Speaker 4: or take Monsey later, or take a bounce back on
Speaker 4: Brandon Lowe. At the end of the day, I'd rather
Speaker 4: take any of the top seven. And he is the
Speaker 4: representative of the first bit where I hate second base,
Speaker 4: so he is kind of the culprit here. Plus I
Speaker 4: do think the team is really opening up that opportunity
Speaker 4: to get him out of here sooner rather than later.
Speaker 1: You know what's funny.
Speaker 2: I'm looking at Tho the opportunities or where he might
Speaker 2: land in such a speculative trade, and the only one
Speaker 2: that really came to mind for me was the Dodgers
Speaker 2: now because they've got some open season issues now in
Speaker 2: the middle infield, he could play shortstop, he could play second,
Speaker 2: depending on how you want to.
Speaker 1: Move those things around. So there's not a lot of
Speaker 1: suitors out there.
Speaker 2: Were like everything matches up for the New York Yankees
Speaker 2: and for Labor Torres. But you're right if they think
Speaker 2: that last year was hey, let's get out before the
Speaker 2: you know, the bottom drops out again, Torres, that could
Speaker 2: certainly be something to keep an eye on later in
Speaker 2: the year. Let's take a quick break in the action
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Speaker 2: And now back to the act. Let's get to your
Speaker 2: second base bust Jason Collett, who is it?
Speaker 3: Let's break hearts chism? And I will say this, I love,
Speaker 3: I love.
Speaker 1: That you're a liar.
Speaker 3: You do not actually.
Speaker 5: Hate him, you hate him him being a ust you.
Speaker 3: Know, I love. I love that he's on the cover
Speaker 3: of the video gay. I love the last year, you know,
Speaker 3: James Anderson and I were like on the front end
Speaker 3: of this is this is a guy, Let's let's stay in.
Speaker 3: People were trying to fade them out, and I remember
Speaker 3: James and I have been very aggressive with him. But
Speaker 3: my big concern is he's had trouble staying on the field.
Speaker 3: He's moving from second base to center field, which is
Speaker 3: a position that puts them at more risk from injury.
Speaker 3: So you have that position switch in a big part
Speaker 3: for him to cover some ground with help, with not
Speaker 3: as much help on either side of him that he
Speaker 3: should have. That's really where my concern is. It's not
Speaker 3: his abilities, it's all the other factors that play into it.
Speaker 3: And when you see when you see him inside the
Speaker 3: top fifty, that's where my concern is with him. I
Speaker 3: struggle to see how he's going to achieve that return
Speaker 3: on investment with those factors playing against him. It's nothing
Speaker 3: about anything else that I see in his profile outside
Speaker 3: of that health grade, which is is tough to ignore,
Speaker 3: and the fact that he's moving to a tougher physical
Speaker 3: position than second base.
Speaker 1: It's tough to nore.
Speaker 2: And I think you make a great point there about
Speaker 2: everything which isn't It is also sometimes we get wrapped
Speaker 2: up in the excitement of a player, you know, and
Speaker 2: that happens quite a bit.
Speaker 1: But last year, the guy.
Speaker 2: Who played sixty games, I mean it was a fun
Speaker 2: sixty games, fourteen homers, twelve still on bases. You know
Speaker 2: a lot of things and a flashy, entertaining something that's
Speaker 2: you know, fun to watch. That fun to watch factor
Speaker 2: sometimes gets you in trouble in fantasy. You want guys
Speaker 2: that are fun to play every day. And certainly there's
Speaker 2: some tenuous situations there potentially for Jassism and the ADP range.
Speaker 1: He's going in. Let's go to third.
Speaker 2: Base, and you've got another young player that people are
Speaker 2: excited about that you are not Jason Colletz.
Speaker 1: Let's talk about all right.
Speaker 3: So this is Jordan Walker and I was in Florida
Speaker 3: this weekend. I was at the game that he hit
Speaker 3: the four hundred and fifty and the four hundit seventy
Speaker 3: foot home runs. I will also add that wind was
Speaker 3: blowing out about two hundred miles an hour that it
Speaker 3: would not have stopped either one of those. I mean,
Speaker 3: they were both well hit. But that said, we talked
Speaker 3: about this a little bit on the First Pitch Florida
Speaker 3: panel this weekend, done in West Palm Beach. You know,
Speaker 3: I have to wonder how much of Jordan Walker's current
Speaker 3: market price is being influenced by what Rodriguez and Bobby
Speaker 3: wit just did last year. Because we saw these two
Speaker 3: guys and the great thing about Julio Rodriguez and maybe
Speaker 3: you can make the same type of care comps because
Speaker 3: everybody says both these guys have an eighty grade character.
Speaker 3: And you saw how Julio Rodriguez made the end season
Speaker 3: adjustment once the Empire started giving him a giant zone
Speaker 3: and it's like, okay here, He's like, okay, fine, if
Speaker 3: you're going to call that a strike, I now know
Speaker 3: what to do. And then he went off and just
Speaker 3: tore the cover off the baseball, and Jordan Walker could
Speaker 3: very well do the same thing. It's just to me
Speaker 3: when I look at Walker, we also cannot forget Jared
Speaker 3: Kelnick is on that possibility a range of outcomes too,
Speaker 3: and that was very recent as well. And Jared Kelnick
Speaker 3: was a can't miss guy and he's missed a lot
Speaker 3: of baseballs. I know he's having a great spring at all,
Speaker 3: but your range of outcomes could vary there. And the
Speaker 3: other thing I have about Walker concern wise, is we
Speaker 3: haven't seen how he's going to handle experienced pitchers that
Speaker 3: can command the baseball. He's only hit double A and
Speaker 3: we're seeing him do some things in spring this year
Speaker 3: and small stints. But I want to see how he
Speaker 3: handles those crafty veterans in trip La. I want to
Speaker 3: see what he can do against a major leagueers, because
Speaker 3: they will quickly find flaws. They found it, and they
Speaker 3: found it in Kellnick and they just pounded on him
Speaker 3: and he's been forced to adjust. And I want to
Speaker 3: see what they do when they find Walker, because everybody
Speaker 3: has one. Once these experienced guys find out, how is
Speaker 3: he going to adjust? We know the regression's already begun
Speaker 3: because he was old for four or two strikeasts yesterday.
Speaker 5: So Jason can something? Can she something? Jason? Do you
Speaker 5: want to be a bad guy? Are you trying to
Speaker 5: be a villain?
Speaker 3: Is this from the office? I am the thief of joy.
Speaker 5: I'm just making sure just right.
Speaker 4: I mean, you're picking on everybody's favorite players and lovel
Speaker 4: I get that.
Speaker 5: I Actually the only thing I would question.
Speaker 4: Is like where are we at with Walker where he
Speaker 4: becomes a bus because he was post I think when
Speaker 4: he was post two fifty and Joe and I have
Speaker 4: been talking about him and he push up and if
Speaker 4: he truly does get a roster spot and jumps inside
Speaker 4: the top one hundred, then you're kind of like lopping
Speaker 4: some of that off and you're taking off the value
Speaker 4: and stuff like that. But I do think you have
Speaker 4: to kind of consider, like what rookies have done, where
Speaker 4: the talent is, and where he's going to really being
Speaker 4: about a bus But to your point, there might not
Speaker 4: be a buzzier play that is on everyone's target list
Speaker 4: for this coming week or the next couple of weeks
Speaker 4: because of what he's doing and the likelihood he is
Speaker 4: to make that roster. But he still is coming at
Speaker 4: a cheaper cost unless it has pushed that top one hundred's.
Speaker 1: Right now, he's still overall two twenty.
Speaker 3: F its like he's jumping around every at bat. But
Speaker 3: I mean, honestly, I would say this weekend, this weekend
Speaker 3: at Labor, he went seventeen in NL only he went
Speaker 3: twelve and the twelve team mixed, and that was a
Speaker 3: better price I thought for your twelve dollars. If I'm
Speaker 3: going to twelve teen mixed league, that's a risk I'm
Speaker 3: willing to take. I saw some people speculating that there's
Speaker 3: a potential he could go in the first six rounds
Speaker 3: of main event week and that wouldn't ye know, it
Speaker 3: kind of wouldn't spread the trajectory if he keeps doing
Speaker 3: what he's doing, we're going to see that rot just
Speaker 3: keep it's going to go number one with the bullet.
Speaker 3: I mean, he's not going to get up there. I
Speaker 3: would be stunned if he got inside the top seventy five.
Speaker 3: But the way he's hitting right now, somebody's gonna take
Speaker 3: that chance.
Speaker 4: Next up on Jason's list, he hates Julio Rodriguez and
Speaker 4: then Ronald all buy him.
Speaker 5: Just letting everybody know, well, she.
Speaker 2: Was the third basement on your All Bus team for
Speaker 2: twenty three.
Speaker 4: Kind of just like the other position. I'm staying in
Speaker 4: this same kind of pool of talking about tiers of players,
Speaker 4: and Johanneo Suarez just continuously doesn't jump out to me. Matt,
Speaker 4: you know, I would have also said Matt Chapman. Matt Chapman, though,
Speaker 4: hits the ball really hard, kind of across the board, obviously,
Speaker 4: Johanneo Swarez can hit the ball hard, but struggles with
Speaker 4: batting average, really really bad whiffs. He was in the
Speaker 4: bottom five percent tile of K percentage this past year.
Speaker 4: Projections hate him this year, I mean two thirty six.
Speaker 4: Last year was an anomaly. The previous two years he'd
Speaker 4: barely hit over two hundred. He had a three hundred
Speaker 4: Babbitt this past year hit two thirty six. Even the
Speaker 4: bat x is at two oh nine. I don't get
Speaker 4: down with guys that are going to hit sub two twenty.
Speaker 5: I just can't do it.
Speaker 4: I can't talk myself into it under any circumstance. And
Speaker 4: I just think that this is a guy that, as
Speaker 4: far as ADP is going, has him as a starting
Speaker 4: third baseman in any format you play in except for
Speaker 4: eight man leagues. That is a starting third baseman. And
Speaker 4: that's a recipe for disaster if you really believe it's
Speaker 4: going to work out. Plus, I think there are better options,
Speaker 4: safer options. Jason talked about Jose Miranda, who I have
Speaker 4: been talking about since November.
Speaker 5: I love him. I think the contact skills are there,
Speaker 5: I think the powers there.
Speaker 4: I think he's an exponentially better fantasy player than Johannio Suarez.
Speaker 4: If I wanted floor, I could go Ty France stolen
Speaker 4: bases to keep Brian Hayes. Not that I want to
Speaker 4: do all this. Third base, like second base stinks more
Speaker 4: so than anything else. I don't want a sub two
Speaker 4: twenty batting average guy and it's a recipe for a bust.
Speaker 2: It's a good one there. I'm with you on Suarez.
Speaker 2: Let's go to the shortstops, Welsh, who makes the list
Speaker 2: for you?
Speaker 4: On the shortstops, there are some to pick from, and
Speaker 4: I've actually been picking on the bottom end of a
Speaker 4: lot of them.
Speaker 3: This time.
Speaker 4: It might surprise a lot of people, even Joe, because
Speaker 4: I've always been just had like a little soft spot
Speaker 4: in my heart for him.
Speaker 5: But I'm gonna go with Carlos Korea.
Speaker 4: And I think Carlos Korea is a safety net for
Speaker 4: all these people that go. Okay, guess what shortstop is
Speaker 4: really safe this year? It's a safe position I can
Speaker 4: if I don't take them. I don't need to take Trade.
Speaker 4: I mean they would take Trait Turn, but I don't
Speaker 4: need to take Boba Schett. I don't need to take
Speaker 4: Lynn Door because I can just keep going back and back.
Speaker 4: I actually think the position once you get out of
Speaker 4: that top eight is just crazy scary. I think there
Speaker 4: are questions with danzby Swanson. I think Tim Anderson's injury
Speaker 4: injury history, everybody is just giving a pass for when
Speaker 4: they don't give it for anybody else. He's the Byron
Speaker 4: Buxton of shortstops, and then you come back to Carlos Korea.
Speaker 4: Carlos Korea couldn't pass the physical I don't even need
Speaker 4: to do the same stuff. We all know he didn't
Speaker 4: pass the physicals and everything like that, but as well,
Speaker 4: he just doesn't live up. He's had one season where
Speaker 4: we've had the run RBI totals that have been there,
Speaker 4: hasn't stolen a base in three plus years, doesn't hit
Speaker 4: over twenty five homers, perpetually injured, and he's the guy
Speaker 4: that every gun goes, Okay, well, I can draft him
Speaker 4: if I don't get anybody to be fair because of
Speaker 4: the position eligibility. He's like seventeenth on Fantasy pros list.
Speaker 4: But he's a guy that I am pretty firmly avoiding overall,
Speaker 4: and I think he's going.
Speaker 1: To be a bust. Hey, look, you know what I've
Speaker 1: already said about Korea.
Speaker 2: You know, when two teams pass on your medicals, you know,
Speaker 2: maybe it's a long term.
Speaker 1: Issue, but maybe it's more of a short term issue too.
Speaker 2: And let's not pretend like career has been the picture
Speaker 2: of health in his career period leading up to that,
Speaker 2: So at a deeper position.
Speaker 1: I think there's some shots that I'd rather take.
Speaker 2: Who are you taking a shot at at shortstop here
Speaker 2: and putting them on the all Bus team.
Speaker 3: Collett Wilson mentioned it, we talked about. He mentioned Dansby Swanson.
Speaker 3: Dan Sby Swanson, I felt he was very very well
Speaker 3: insulated last year in Atlanta and took advantage of a
Speaker 3: very good surrounding cast to put up his numbers. He
Speaker 3: does not have that same insulation with the Cubs, so
Speaker 3: that to me, it's like when you look at where
Speaker 3: his market prices now, I haven't seen that much of
Speaker 3: an adjustment. It's like, Okay, he's just taking those talents
Speaker 3: north to Chicago and things should be just fine. I'm
Speaker 3: not there because the surrounding cast is big change for him,
Speaker 3: and so I expect about a fifteen percent reduction in
Speaker 3: his overall production. That's not playing out in his current
Speaker 3: market value. So that's somebody I have stayed away from.
Speaker 2: I'm stay away from the Cubs period for the most part.
Speaker 1: Collette, I'm just.
Speaker 2: Not buying this whole half ass sort of We're gonna
Speaker 2: throw some money at some shoes and take some players
Speaker 2: and see what happens.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's weird build.
Speaker 4: Theoretically, It'szki's already hurt too, Sazuki's hurt.
Speaker 5: I Actually I just high highlighted this.
Speaker 4: If anyone listened to the microcast and Fantasy pros, Dansby
Speaker 4: Swanson was in a top ten bus we were talking about.
Speaker 4: He was one of the ones I put in there
Speaker 4: because I agree. And it's back to that same Carlos
Speaker 4: Korea thing that it's just like there's all these guys
Speaker 4: that people are like comfortably sitting all this will be
Speaker 4: my starting short step. I really don't want it. I
Speaker 4: want one of the elite, top tier guys. Dansby Swanson
Speaker 4: does feel like one of those guys that you're paying
Speaker 4: this year for last year's stats.
Speaker 3: Good point.
Speaker 2: Let's talk about the outfielders that made the team for
Speaker 2: Jason Kleett, Michael Harrow's the second Jake McCarthy and Masataka Yoshida.
Speaker 2: Those are three outfielders. Let's talk about him in a cluster.
Speaker 2: What are your concerns about these guys here?
Speaker 1: Rittle them off for me?
Speaker 3: Collect sure. With Harris it's you know, people, he's he's
Speaker 3: in the back of the second round. Now that's where
Speaker 3: he's going. And when I try to look for historical comps.
Speaker 3: So when I'm I'm looking at players, and when I
Speaker 3: look at young players that have such a gap between
Speaker 3: their walk rate and their strikeout rate. When I when
Speaker 3: I went back and looked at rec examples, guys that
Speaker 3: popped on that were Dylan Carlson, Ian happ and these aren't.
Speaker 3: These weren't great sophomore seasons Cody bell But you know,
Speaker 3: Bellinger had a season when he was twenty three. It
Speaker 3: wasn't his sophomore year, but he had he was coming
Speaker 3: back from their hurt shoulder. But when you look at
Speaker 3: young players that have a big gap between their walk
Speaker 3: and strikeout rate, they tend to either tread water or
Speaker 3: declined a little bit rather than take another step forward.
Speaker 3: And Harris, his defense is going to keep him in
Speaker 3: the lineup. I've seen some people say, oh, you know
Speaker 3: against lefties, still sit, No, he'll stay. He's just probably
Speaker 3: going to go down the ninth because they have options.
Speaker 3: They don't have to hit him second all year like
Speaker 3: they like they did once they called him up, and
Speaker 3: so against those lefties, him coming down and some of
Speaker 3: the historical concerns that have happened with sophomores that have
Speaker 3: had that type of plate disciplined type of issues. I
Speaker 3: am not paying that second round value. I believe by
Speaker 3: season's end his value is going to be closer to
Speaker 3: fifth sixth round. And you know, if you draft him
Speaker 3: as the second round, you're getting fifth six return to me.
Speaker 3: That hits the bus area. When I look at McCarthy again,
Speaker 3: when something comes out of nowhere, you got to look
Speaker 3: at look at where did it? Where can it go
Speaker 3: from there? And a lot of his stuff you look at,
Speaker 3: you know, I heard somebody this week and call it
Speaker 3: the lollipop screen on statcast, and the speed stands out.
Speaker 3: Everything else is blue blue, blue, blue blue, as Wels's
Speaker 3: shirt right, and everything else is red on the speed.
Speaker 3: And so everything that's built on speed, anything happens what
Speaker 3: it happens to the rest of the game. So I
Speaker 3: have concerns about the market and if Arizona, if they
Speaker 3: keep running like they did last year, maybe they do,
Speaker 3: maybe I'm wrong. And then with Yoshida, I just personally
Speaker 3: have had a terrible, terrible track record with everybody coming
Speaker 3: over from me to the Korean Baseball League or the
Speaker 3: Japanese league. Every year, I like I'll buy in. It's
Speaker 3: gonna be this guy. It's gonna be this guy. Every
Speaker 3: year it's been disappointment. Last year I was all in
Speaker 3: on Suzuki, and when he was healthy, it worked out.
Speaker 3: But he had trouble. He had trouble adjusting to certain things.
Speaker 3: And we still don't know where Yoshet is gonna hit.
Speaker 3: And it's not the same. This isn't your your Boston
Speaker 3: lineup that's gonna put up a ton of runs, and
Speaker 3: so you know they're still trying to figure out. I
Speaker 3: guess Devers is gonna hit second type of thing, but
Speaker 3: this is not the loaded I'm gonna score six runs
Speaker 3: again Boston lineup anymore. So I see these are three
Speaker 3: names that I look at the chart and I'm like,
Speaker 3: I'm not paying those prices.
Speaker 2: Oh, you make great cases for all three of them.
Speaker 2: Yoshida's one definitely sticks out to me in points leagues.
Speaker 2: I can understand, you know, maybe he'll you'll get on
Speaker 2: base and off, it'll do enough things there. I understand that,
Speaker 2: But you don't know what the power is gonna be.
Speaker 2: And Harris as graz as he was, you don't know
Speaker 2: what the adjustments are in year two, the great point.
Speaker 1: There for you Welsh your outfielders.
Speaker 2: Where Louis Robert, which again, this one hurts my soul,
Speaker 2: Cody Bellinger, which I totally get and at least gotta
Speaker 2: see another guy that that's the one to hurt my soul.
Speaker 1: Yeah. Well, and let's talk about these three outfitters.
Speaker 4: Give me, I want to the most compelling case for him.
Speaker 4: I would want to point out by the way, I
Speaker 4: love the McCarthy one. That's when I've really been hitting
Speaker 4: on with a lot of people. I felt like a
Speaker 4: lot of the early stuff was like, oh, death charts,
Speaker 4: he's gonna hit three, He's not. Corman Carroll's gonna lead
Speaker 4: off to tell Martes hit to and Lord of Scuriel
Speaker 4: has hit three in almost every single game this spring,
Speaker 4: including today. He's gonna move further back in the lineup,
Speaker 4: maybe five or six, which could lose some opportunities.
Speaker 5: I think he runs less.
Speaker 4: So I really like that one, all right, So mine,
Speaker 4: Luis Robert, I love this is kind of like the
Speaker 4: Tim Anderson. This is the Byron Buckson thing. He's great
Speaker 4: when he's out there, but he's not out there. He's
Speaker 4: never played a career one hundred games in one season.
Speaker 4: That doesn't work for me. Two eighty four batting average
Speaker 4: is solid, twelve homers, eleven stolen bases in around one
Speaker 4: hundred games. Your best case scenario would be a twenty
Speaker 4: twenty season. But even in the bottom line of projections,
Speaker 4: this is the baseline. This is like you know they're
Speaker 4: giving you the baseline. Best case scenario is twenty homers,
Speaker 4: twelve stolen bases on the bat X. That's not worth
Speaker 4: his price. That's not worth where you're getting Louise Robert
Speaker 4: with the inherent risk, with the injury as well. So
Speaker 4: I love him, but I don't think he's worth the risk.
Speaker 4: And there's so many other players like we make excuses for,
Speaker 4: like why would we take him inside the top fifty
Speaker 4: when he doesn't play those games? And really the return
Speaker 4: I don't want to say it's Carlos Kraa esque because
Speaker 4: he steals bases, but like, are we even going to
Speaker 4: be happy on one hundred and fifty game on Luise Robert?
Speaker 5: I think that's in question. My other guys, who the
Speaker 5: hell do I have? I've got.
Speaker 4: So adulas Cursia. Here's my big thing with him. I
Speaker 4: feel like we all got to this place now where
Speaker 4: we're comfortable. Last year, everyone's like, he can't do it,
Speaker 4: he can't do it again. Then he did do it.
Speaker 4: Xba's up to two forty four, and everyone's like thumbs up. Okay,
Speaker 4: here's what I'm worried about a little bit bigger this offseason.
Speaker 4: I've seen him in camp breaking balls last year kind
Speaker 4: of around thirty percent of his pitches, and he really
Speaker 4: regressed the year before. In twenty twenty one, he hit
Speaker 4: two fifty six, which is the highest batting average against
Speaker 4: any This past year, he started to really hit up
Speaker 4: fastballs and the breaking balls tanked his fifth percentage forty
Speaker 4: one percent on them, and he only hit one ninety nine.
Speaker 4: I think pitchers are going to adjust to him. I
Speaker 4: think that comfort level we have in aduls is going
Speaker 4: to do us wrong because the same thing.
Speaker 5: The crazy price. It is crazy crazy.
Speaker 4: Price right now, and he makes bad contact, he swings
Speaker 4: through everything, and he's really just barely stabilizing that two
Speaker 4: forty four to keep going. I don't think it's going
Speaker 4: to be there. I think he's going to get attacked
Speaker 4: a lot more with breaking pitches, and I just don't
Speaker 4: think he has the like floor to maintain a top
Speaker 4: fifty five overall player. I think he could still be good,
Speaker 4: but I think this is a matter of you paid
Speaker 4: top fifty. Let's say what is his ADP right now?
Speaker 4: In the dullest Garcia, I want to say, it's like
Speaker 4: forty eight. Yeah, if he returns top eighty or ninety,
Speaker 4: maybe you're going to be okay with it. But like,
Speaker 4: what does he have to do? He has to do
Speaker 4: everything he did last year to return that.
Speaker 5: So I don't like it. And Cody Villain's pretty.
Speaker 2: He's seven in the consensus over on Fantasy Pros and
Speaker 2: I who want to check this, you go to fancypros
Speaker 2: dot com. You can check it out there at the
Speaker 2: rankings page and he is the fifteenth outfielder as well.
Speaker 2: And look at all these guys that you're talking about too.
Speaker 2: Make sure that as you're looking through these names and
Speaker 2: you're hearing these names here too, don't forget that you
Speaker 2: can also put the guys to work here, guys like collect,
Speaker 2: guys like Welsh myself. Well, if you make the cheat
Speaker 2: sheets with the cheat sheet creator and you can go
Speaker 2: use that on the draft Wizard Fancy rose dot com
Speaker 2: slash draft Wizard, you can avoid some of these pitfalls
Speaker 2: are some of these players, which is really useful, so
Speaker 2: make sure you check that out again. Fancy Rose dot
Speaker 2: Com slash Draft Wizard. You could always download the app
Speaker 2: as well, and the chie Chet Career is great because
Speaker 2: you could do a composite of the different analysts you like,
Speaker 2: or you could just stick to one like Jason Collett.
Speaker 1: Jason glet's my guy. That's my dude.
Speaker 5: I hate, he just hates.
Speaker 1: Give me a quick take on Bellinger before we get
Speaker 1: to the pictures here.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm just not gonna do it. I'm not going
Speaker 5: to buy back into it.
Speaker 4: I don't think there's any reason he's changed his swing
Speaker 4: like seven hundred times in the last three years. I
Speaker 4: don't see any reason why we should buy it that
Speaker 4: he's going into Chicago. He's still crazy free swinging. Strikeout
Speaker 4: percentage went up this past year, he walked less, he
Speaker 4: hit for a worse batting average than I mean, it's
Speaker 4: just continuous and his XBA was zero point two one three.
Speaker 5: I mean, I don't see why we would.
Speaker 2: Buy Everybody has the same thing Welsh right where they go, Oh,
Speaker 2: it's you know, it's a new situation. Let's give another chance.
Speaker 2: I think it's the worst thing you can do. What
Speaker 2: I like actually want to win.
Speaker 5: I like Cody Bellinger. I want him to succeed.
Speaker 4: I think he's a crazy three hundred home run potential guy,
Speaker 4: but he just doesn't make contact. And like this year,
Speaker 4: I'm trying to make more of a concerted effort than
Speaker 4: anything else to really focus in on guys that make
Speaker 4: consistent contact. And I know that's like, oh, it's such
Speaker 4: a stupid whatever, but like Doulos Garcia, I don't think
Speaker 4: it's consistent. Has really big whif issues. Cody Bellinger. Obviously,
Speaker 4: there's a lot of those players who do I like.
Speaker 4: I like the Jose Miranda's my craziest one of all
Speaker 4: of this is probably like O'Neil Cruz and Jazz Chisholm.
Speaker 4: Those are huge swings I want to take because of
Speaker 4: the home run, the power, speed potential. But for the
Speaker 4: most part, if I do take those guys, those are
Speaker 4: my risks. I want to have a lot of balance
Speaker 4: around those teams, and I want guys with really good
Speaker 4: contact skills and these floors, because these dudes, Cody Bellinger
Speaker 4: could be a Fantasy winner, but he also could be
Speaker 4: cut by May.
Speaker 3: He'd also be Joey Gallo this year.
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, great, completely agree.
Speaker 1: I don't want to say about that. I'm speechless.
Speaker 2: All right, let's go to the starting pitchers on the
Speaker 2: list for you, Jason Collett, so further Streider.
Speaker 1: Hold on away. I'm going to name them all.
Speaker 2: I want to let them hang in the ether like
Speaker 2: one of those two bubbles for everybody to take it in.
Speaker 2: Spencer Stryder, who I am so excited about, Shane Bieber,
Speaker 2: who Welsh doesn't like so and you and him are
Speaker 2: going to see why d eye on that one? And
Speaker 2: Hunter Green, which I think we can all understand where
Speaker 2: you're coming from them. So Strider Bieber Green dissect them
Speaker 2: for us. Why are those guys people who have big
Speaker 2: potential bust?
Speaker 3: So for me, I've seen Strider go is sp two
Speaker 3: and to me it's it's when I look at a
Speaker 3: guy who is just turning. He turned twenty four during
Speaker 3: the off season. He went from pitching, you know, pitched
Speaker 3: into twenty nineteen. Twenty twenty was a wash twelve innings
Speaker 3: before the college season was shut down. Uh, you know.
Speaker 3: Twenty one. He had a thirty nine percent jump in
Speaker 3: his workload from twenty twenty one to twenty twenty two.
Speaker 3: If we were to project that type of workload on
Speaker 3: him this year, that means we're taking Strider to one
Speaker 3: hundred and eighty plus innings this year. And that's exactly
Speaker 3: how he's being drafted. And when I you know, Joe,
Speaker 3: you were, you were in New York, you came up
Speaker 3: with the Mets and Generation K. You kind of know
Speaker 3: where I'm hinting at with some of this, But that's
Speaker 3: what I was in high school.
Speaker 2: And you're also hinting at a team that has aspirations
Speaker 2: for the playoffs. So if you're going to push him
Speaker 2: to one aiding in the regular season, that's not even
Speaker 2: talking about what's gonna happen in the playoffs. Socicly, I
Speaker 2: look as SB two, you're one hundred percent.
Speaker 3: That's nuts, But man, I just need I want them.
Speaker 3: I see the risk reward And you can have the
Speaker 3: same conversation with the Grom. It's like the innings that
Speaker 3: he does pitch. I've heard, you know, make this point.
Speaker 3: He was even talking about it this weekend. It's like,
Speaker 3: if the Gram comes out and gets one hundred and
Speaker 3: forty innings, he could be the best pitcher in baseball
Speaker 3: because of the quality of that. And we saw what
Speaker 3: Strider was able to do last year, but again we
Speaker 3: haven't seen how he comes back from a big workload,
Speaker 3: jump and go in thirty eight increase is a big one,
Speaker 3: and that's why I'm like, I've been out on him.
Speaker 3: That said, I do have him for one dollar in
Speaker 3: one of my leagues because I traded what about this
Speaker 3: year when I was dumping so yay. And when I
Speaker 3: look at Shane Bieber, love the pitching style, love to
Speaker 3: watch him pitch, but my biggest concern with him is
Speaker 3: the imbalanced schedule's gone. He had a like a two
Speaker 3: thirteen era against Al Central last year, a three fifty
Speaker 3: two against everybody else, and so he had a lot
Speaker 3: of a lot of sweetness came out of facing the
Speaker 3: Tigers and the Royals and the depleted Twins lineup and
Speaker 3: the White Sox mess repeatedly, and so that big gap.
Speaker 3: Now he's got to play some of those other teams.
Speaker 3: I want to see how that softens up. And then
Speaker 3: with Green, it's nothing about the pitcher, it's the surrounding cast.
Speaker 3: Getting back to the Dansby Swanson thing. That's not a
Speaker 3: great bullpen that's not a great defense, and that's not
Speaker 3: inconsistent run support, and he can go out and strike
Speaker 3: out twelve guys and lose a game, and so I
Speaker 3: without the wins like I can't legitimately. I've seen some
Speaker 3: projections saying Green's a ten twelve game winner. I don't
Speaker 3: see it because I don't know how the Reds are
Speaker 3: going to get there. They're not Oakland bad, but they're
Speaker 3: not good and it's good. There's gonna be times where
Speaker 3: he gets pulled out of a game and that bullpen
Speaker 3: blows that lead. So that's that's why I'm out on
Speaker 3: Hunter Green as Kurt market price, because he is inside
Speaker 3: the top one hundred right now.
Speaker 2: Wels, you've got Dylan Cees, Robbie Ray Kyle right now.
Speaker 2: You've talked a lot about Dylan ce So give everybody
Speaker 2: the ten seconds on that, because we already know your
Speaker 2: feelings on him.
Speaker 1: But Robbie Ray Kyle Wright or two other guys you
Speaker 1: think could be potential.
Speaker 4: Bust, Why yeah, I mean Cease has just been big,
Speaker 4: high walk rates, like the strikeout rates. I don't know
Speaker 4: how good this team is going to be, and I
Speaker 4: just think he's super volatile.
Speaker 5: I just don't like the cost.
Speaker 4: I think a lot of being Nick Pollock agreed, I
Speaker 4: think a lot of people agree. Just the cost of
Speaker 4: where Dylan Cees goes overall just doesn't quite add up.
Speaker 4: And again this is there's actually a balance. It'sunny we were
Speaker 4: talking about Strider. I keep thinking and Jacob deGrom where
Speaker 4: it's like, how do you balance out your teams?
Speaker 5: You know, would you almost sometimes.
Speaker 4: Rather take these players that have, you know, this volatility,
Speaker 4: but to be like the number one overall player and
Speaker 4: then just take a bunch of players around them for
Speaker 4: protection or do you want safety across the board? And
Speaker 4: I just actually don't think Dylan Ceese qualifies as either
Speaker 4: one of those. I don't think he's got that the highest.
Speaker 4: I would rather Strider than Cease all day long. I
Speaker 4: just don't like those walk rates. Robbie Ray specifically is
Speaker 4: one that I'm just not in love with. He had
Speaker 4: a decrease on his fastball, which was around a mile
Speaker 4: and a half overall.
Speaker 5: And I think it just went away for me. But
Speaker 5: I think this was an.
Speaker 4: Overall pitch mix that his velocity went down. Yeah, his
Speaker 4: slider went down about a full mile and a full
Speaker 4: mile per hour, his change up went down, his fastball
Speaker 4: went down. I don't overall like Robbie Ray and the costs.
Speaker 4: He's still pretty pretty heavy up there. So Robbie Ray's
Speaker 4: just a guy that i'm strikeouts also went down, like
Speaker 4: from eleven to ten k per nine and the three
Speaker 4: and a half year I just think doesn't fit. So
Speaker 4: he's just, you know, a little too crazy. And Kyle Wright,
Speaker 4: you know, I don't. I think we're paying so much
Speaker 4: Kyle Wright for what he did last year. And I
Speaker 4: said this on the microcast, There's one thing I can
Speaker 4: guarantee you Kyle Wright will not win twenty one games
Speaker 4: this year. So what does that ultimately do his overall value?
Speaker 5: I don't.
Speaker 4: The strikeouts are not elite. He has great team contact.
Speaker 4: It's actually funny because I agree with what Jason said
Speaker 4: about Hunter Green, like I like Hunter Green stuff a lot,
Speaker 4: and I love the k's and I like the strikeouts,
Speaker 4: but the team in general doesn't give you a lot
Speaker 4: of safety. Kyle Ray does have the safety because of
Speaker 4: the braves. I mean, the guy won twenty one games.
Speaker 4: There's a reason behind it. But you've got still a
Speaker 4: two and a half walk per nine under nine k
Speaker 4: per nine is not what I love, and he had
Speaker 4: a little bit higher his expected The Ray was almost
Speaker 4: four compared to a low three. So take all that
Speaker 4: in consideration, I think he's gonna regress. There's no chance
Speaker 4: that wins come remotely close, and we're paying for him
Speaker 4: right around right around top thirty overall. Sp So, Dylan Cee,
Speaker 4: Robbie Ray, and Kyle Raight are all my bust pitchers
Speaker 4: for this year.
Speaker 2: Let's close it out with the closers, then, Welsh, who
Speaker 2: is your potential bus closer in twenty three?
Speaker 4: Well, on the microcast, I told you, guys, Joe Barlow,
Speaker 4: because Joe Barlow is being drafted inside the top one
Speaker 4: fifty and uh or no Scott Barlow.
Speaker 5: The Barlow's confused me.
Speaker 4: I actually saw Scott Barlow today, Scott Parlow with the Kansas
Speaker 4: City Royals, because he was going inside the top one fifty.
Speaker 4: And I think that's silly that you're taking closers that
Speaker 4: don't have defined roles because rold As Chapman is there,
Speaker 4: and that there's no way that a role as Chapman
Speaker 4: is there to just sit and be an eighth inning guy.
Speaker 4: He had a lot of opportunity to go in other places,
Speaker 4: so staying with it and giving a different name these
Speaker 4: guys that are in these questionable closing spots. Clay Holmes
Speaker 4: is somebody that is in one of the best you
Speaker 4: know cities, New York. He's a Yankees closer. It seems great,
Speaker 4: lots of opportunity. The team has already talked about moving
Speaker 4: him in and out of that position.
Speaker 5: I hate that.
Speaker 4: I hate the idea of paying at any top high
Speaker 4: end closer.
Speaker 5: And he comes after like the big guys.
Speaker 4: He's not like he's going at a crazy cost, but
Speaker 4: he's inside the top fifteen of closers. I think you
Speaker 4: have to reach ahead because every guy, almost every guy
Speaker 4: after him, has really big questions unless you want a
Speaker 4: Rockies closer and a Pirate's closer and Bednar and Burt,
Speaker 4: and I don't think you do want bart and Bednar.
Speaker 4: So Clay Holmes, I feel like people are like, Okay,
Speaker 4: I can snag this guy. I just don't think. And
Speaker 4: the Yankees have already told us that he's guaranteed to
Speaker 4: get those spots. So I think that's going to be
Speaker 4: a bust for a lot of people that are like, oh,
Speaker 4: I can wait on closers, and I'll get you know,
Speaker 4: a guy that's going to be put in a great
Speaker 4: situation with the Yankees, Clay Homes is pretty easy for me.
Speaker 2: Collect you've got another high profile reliever on yours as well,
Speaker 2: it's Devin Williams.
Speaker 3: Why yeah, I do so another point I would say, there,
Speaker 3: why why people are kind of doing what they are
Speaker 3: with closers. Let's not forget that there were only eleven
Speaker 3: pitchers that had twenty five plus saves last year, So
Speaker 3: I think that's kind of been boldened people to say, fine,
Speaker 3: I'll punt. You know. Conversely, I saw something earlier today.
Speaker 3: Somebody in a in a in a twelveth t o
Speaker 3: C fifteen OC opened up with Aaron Judge, then took
Speaker 3: Emanuel class A, Josh Hater, and Edmund dis as his
Speaker 3: first four picks, all three, all three. So I want
Speaker 3: to see what the rest of that build looks like.
Speaker 3: Uh So, But I think people are more in boiler
Speaker 3: to say, hey, I'm going to try the Tampa Bay
Speaker 3: Rays approach and just you know, find all these stream
Speaker 3: relievers and try to build all these saves all year
Speaker 3: because they want to they want to take advantage of
Speaker 3: hitting or whatever early on. But I put Devin Williams
Speaker 3: because he's going it's fun to watch him pitch. Love
Speaker 3: the airbender, love the strikeouts. But let's not pretend that
Speaker 3: he's been a model of health. Uh. You know, he's
Speaker 3: had some knee issues. That airbender requires him to severely
Speaker 3: pronate his arm to throw that pitch. That puts him
Speaker 3: at some risk. You know, severe pronator will be got
Speaker 3: like Brent Honeywell, I wish that could have happened, but
Speaker 3: it never did. But so Williams, he's.
Speaker 5: Still happen.
Speaker 3: Yeah, but that is not where you know he was.
Speaker 3: He was our ten staff. You know, there's no such
Speaker 3: thing as a pitching prospect, just a reminder trade your
Speaker 3: pitching prospects every time you can.
Speaker 1: Uh.
Speaker 3: But with so, that's my thing with Williams is I'm
Speaker 3: concerned that he can stay healthy over the course of
Speaker 3: a full season. If I am drafting Williams, I'm trying
Speaker 3: to make sure I get Matt Bush somewhere deep down
Speaker 3: the draft as some insurance policy with that. But Matt
Speaker 3: Devin Williams, I want to said, Matt Devin Williams has
Speaker 3: cost you to acquire the skills because the upside's definitely there,
Speaker 3: but the risk is there and you should look to
Speaker 3: mitigate the risk as well. But I'm I ended up
Speaker 3: with Williams in one. I think I took him to
Speaker 3: teach FBI as my first closer, but he definitely wasn't
Speaker 3: my target.
Speaker 2: Well, just to recap everybody's bust teams for twenty twenty three,
Speaker 2: the Welsh at catcher, Dalton v Oar Show, then Reese
Speaker 2: Hoskins at first, Labor Tours at second, Ueno Suarez at
Speaker 2: third base, Carls Korey at short, Luis Robert Etais Garcia,
Speaker 2: Cody Bellinger in the outfield, and then the rotation is Cease,
Speaker 2: Robbie Ray, Kyle Wright with Clay Holmes. You know, it's
Speaker 2: funny you look at this roster Welsh, it's pretty competitive roster.
Speaker 3: I mean, yeah, it's funny.
Speaker 5: It's so funny you said that.
Speaker 3: I was about to say.
Speaker 4: I could totally see someone doing the all fade Welsh
Speaker 4: team and putting this team together, and.
Speaker 1: I want somebody to do that. In fact, go out
Speaker 1: there and do it and let us know if you are.
Speaker 5: I mean you didn't have a first round pick if
Speaker 5: you did, but yeah.
Speaker 2: No, you didn't have a first round pick, but you know,
Speaker 2: it's just kind of funny. Adlie Rutchman at catcher, Nathaniel
Speaker 2: Lowe at first, Gestism at second, Jordan Walker third danceby
Speaker 2: Swanson Short, Michael Harris, Jake McCarthy and Yoshida in the outfield,
Speaker 2: and Spencer Strider, Bieber, Hunter Green and Devin Williams.
Speaker 5: Certain name I might go to war with. I'm not
Speaker 5: gonna lie here, I might go to war with.
Speaker 3: Hey. Well, the boy I tried to say is every
Speaker 3: year we have surprises, so everybody steps up. In order
Speaker 3: for somebody's up, somebody's got to step down.
Speaker 2: And you guys have definitely hit on some big names,
Speaker 2: and I think that's worth everybody paying attention to because
Speaker 2: just because a big name, big investment doesn't.
Speaker 1: Mean it's a sure thing all the time.
Speaker 2: So you rethink and at least understand where the guys
Speaker 2: are coming from a little food for thought here from
Speaker 2: the Welsh and Jason Collett. Follow him on the Twitter
Speaker 2: machine at Jason Collette. He's a great follow He does
Speaker 2: great stuff in the baseball world. Check out his work
Speaker 2: at Rodewi and Fangrafts as well. I want to think
Speaker 2: the sponsor of today's show, and that is Fanimal. Head
Speaker 2: over to fanimal dot com or download the Fnimal app
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Speaker 2: That'll do it for us, But the story of the
Speaker 2: game goes on for Jason and Welsh.
Speaker 1: I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time kids.
Speaker 2: That the then