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Speaker 1: The best of the busts. Welcome in everybody, the Fantasy Pros.

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Speaker 1: This is the Fantasy Baseball Podcast. It is Meet Joey

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Speaker 1: p joe Piece Apa, and today it's about the bus.

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Speaker 1: That's right, it's the Monday we're recording this.

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Speaker 2: Everybody's grouchy, and everybody's always got problems on Mondays, and

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Speaker 2: we've got problems with some players. And to help break

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Speaker 2: down the all bust team for twenty twenty three is

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Speaker 2: of course my podcast partner, The Wels. You can follow

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Speaker 2: him on the Twitter machine at is it the Welsh

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Speaker 2: and we brought in a big gun today from Rodo

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Speaker 2: Wire and of course from Fangrafts, the one, the Only

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Speaker 2: Jason Collett. Follow him on Twitter at Jason Collett and

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Speaker 2: Jason Collette. I saw you not that long ago and

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Speaker 2: we had some fun talk. We were buying back into

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Speaker 2: Gavin Lux. It was a simpler time about a week ago.

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Speaker 2: And now I gotta tell you, I love you. You're

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Speaker 2: one of my favorite people, but I hate your list.

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Speaker 2: A lot of your players are some of my favorite

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Speaker 2: guys going into twenty twenty three. So one of us

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Speaker 2: is either going to be really right or really wrong.

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Speaker 2: And somebody's gonna be depressed.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I figured it was gonna create some controversy. Look

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Speaker 3: at that. I wanted to make sure I picked different

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Speaker 3: names than what Welch has as I didn't want to

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Speaker 3: be like, oh, that was my guy. So I wanted

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Speaker 3: to go through some things and I was like, you know,

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Speaker 3: some of these are going to be like what are

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Speaker 3: you thinking? Jay, So we'll see. I hope I give

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Speaker 3: you at least something to think about with a completely

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Speaker 3: pissing yap.

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Speaker 4: You know, Jason, I kind of wish we could have, like,

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Speaker 4: had you get to this first, so we could have

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Speaker 4: seen what those names look like on here, because there

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Speaker 4: are two on here that make me very upset, very

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Speaker 4: very upset. It also maybe means that you would have

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Speaker 4: had some of my guys, which I'm kind of excited

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Speaker 4: to see.

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Speaker 5: And for everybody.

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Speaker 4: I also attempted to pick like a few different names.

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Speaker 4: We've talked a lot about Bus recently. You may know

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Speaker 4: some of them that I may have taken. I went

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Speaker 4: in a little bit of a different direction for some

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Speaker 4: different bus. But Joe, sometimes I can't help myself with

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Speaker 4: a few of these guys. I just have to continuously

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Speaker 4: keep calling them bus and when they're amazing this year,

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Speaker 4: everyone will remind.

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Speaker 3: Me, well, let's she's what I have a huge problem

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Speaker 3: with because he's on two of my rosters already. So

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Speaker 3: I'm my god, I've got to hear what you have

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Speaker 3: to say there.

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Speaker 1: Oh well, well, why's what we get out of the way.

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Speaker 2: I mean, because you have basically every chance you've had,

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Speaker 2: you've taken shots.

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Speaker 1: At Dalton var Show. So let's just get that out

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Speaker 1: of the way.

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Speaker 2: Clean slate for those who might not have ever heard

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Speaker 2: a podcast here between the two of us, give them

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Speaker 2: why Dalton var Show is going to be a bust

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Speaker 2: at twenty twenty three.

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Speaker 1: A catcher.

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Speaker 4: I'm trying to be like level about it, like Dalton

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Speaker 4: Varshow is still going to be a very fine player.

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Speaker 4: My biggest issue has been where he's going. NFBC drafts

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Speaker 4: lead a lot of this, and you know, pointing out

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Speaker 4: like if you go to Fantasy pros ADP is manipulated

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Speaker 4: by all of the places.

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Speaker 5: It's an aggregate system.

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Speaker 4: NFBC plays a big role in that, and NFBC pushes

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Speaker 4: up catchers, and I think that generally pushes these guys

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Speaker 4: up to a level that I just don't think I'm

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Speaker 4: super comfortable with because I think the position is kind

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Speaker 4: of deep, obviously pull heavy. I think he's going to

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Speaker 4: struggle versus lefties. There's the potential that I'm not going

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Speaker 4: to say there's going to be any platoons or anything

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Speaker 4: like that, but you never know if he's going to

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Speaker 4: get out versus lefties. I don't know if he's going

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Speaker 4: to run as much. And I've exhaustingly said that. You know,

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Speaker 4: Toronto was in the bottom third of the league and

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Speaker 4: stolen attempts, while the Diamondbacks were like the top five

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Speaker 4: overall teams in stolen base attempt They're gonna go up

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Speaker 4: in general, but those stolen bases come down. The average

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Speaker 4: kind of stinks a little bit, and the homers pop

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Speaker 4: down a little bit. Why would that be more valuable

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Speaker 4: by twenty rounds in Adlie Rutchman. Why would that be

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Speaker 4: more valuable than fifty rounds on Salvador Perez or going

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Speaker 4: even further. I could just keep listening catcher names. I'd

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Speaker 4: rather not make the investment early on, even though he

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Speaker 4: does qualify at another position. So I think, like top

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Speaker 4: fifty five is just bust material for me. It's gonna

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Speaker 4: be really hard I think for him to return that value.

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Speaker 4: I say all of that, and then he's gonna be

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Speaker 4: you know, thirty twenty and I'll just eat pro.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's funny you should mention Adlie Rutchman in that

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Speaker 2: conversation because that's the guy that collect chos at A

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Speaker 2: good friend, Ryan Warmley, the worm, mister Oriole himself is

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Speaker 2: not gonna be happy about this. But Adley Rushman's certainly

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Speaker 2: a name that's been you know, highly towed the last

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Speaker 2: few years. You know, got some time in last year,

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Speaker 2: looked pretty good doing it.

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Speaker 1: But it's always the difficulty.

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Speaker 2: Of young catchers, I feel like, who have to manage

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Speaker 2: a pitching staff and really learn all that, where sometimes

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Speaker 2: their offense takes a second fiddle or the back seat

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Speaker 2: to that. So is that you're concern with Rushman or

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Speaker 2: is something else he saw last year in his performance

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Speaker 2: that worries you about twenty twenty three?

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Speaker 3: Yeah? Really, no more what you just talked about there?

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Speaker 3: And if so, there was an excellent interview a couple

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Speaker 3: of weeks ago, our buddy you know, Sarah's interviewed Stephen

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Speaker 3: Vote on the podcast and Steve and you know he

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Speaker 3: now Vote is now working with the Seattle organization. But

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Speaker 3: he talked about the amount of work that went into

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Speaker 3: every game and all the prep of what he had

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Speaker 3: to do every single game, and Joe, as you said,

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Speaker 3: a lot of these rookie catchers, they have to do

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Speaker 3: all of that stuff and hitting is almost like a

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Speaker 3: secondary thing. And this is no slight against Adlee Rudchman.

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Speaker 3: I love him as a real baseball player. I just

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Speaker 3: think there's a gap between the real and the fantasy

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Speaker 3: that's not being addressed in the current marketplace right now.

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Speaker 3: And that's only so when you look at his ADP

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Speaker 3: it's high and Welch you said it with I'd rather

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Speaker 3: have Perez all day long, and Perez is going that

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Speaker 3: is going lower than Rutchman is. And I would say

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Speaker 3: another point to your point about the catchers being inflated.

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Speaker 3: Let's not forget between between varshow between Lendes, between Langoliers,

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Speaker 3: and between Garver. We potentially have four catchers that are

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Speaker 3: either being drafted because we know they're not going to

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Speaker 3: play catcher or in hopes that they're going to play catch.

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Speaker 3: So it's like Langoliers is a projected CE one, but

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Speaker 3: you can't draft him as a C one in most

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Speaker 3: in most formats right now, and so you're seeing that

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Speaker 3: value get pushed up. You're seeing Mitch Garver because he's

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Speaker 3: already caught as of yesterday two games in spring just

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Speaker 3: need you know, need to get the ten game in NFBC,

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Speaker 3: need to get into five in some leagues, some leagues

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Speaker 3: even one, and so you're like, let's do this. So

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Speaker 3: some of that catchup value is coming up. But for Retchman,

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Speaker 3: I see a lot of I see a lot of

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Speaker 3: that gap where it's like he's a great real player

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Speaker 3: and I saw him play a number of times coming

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Speaker 3: here through Charlotte last year before he got promoted with that,

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Speaker 3: but I'm not where the marketplace is on him. And

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Speaker 3: that's why I have zero I have zero shares and

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Speaker 3: all the drafts I've done.

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Speaker 4: And the only edition I want to make to this

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Speaker 4: is I am generally any top one hundred catcher is

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Speaker 4: just not going to be my thing. So I'm just

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Speaker 4: not going to have interested and interested in catcher one. Yeah,

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Speaker 4: So don't like I pick on bar Show a little bit,

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Speaker 4: but that's just kind of like all of them.

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Speaker 5: Give me Wilson Contreras, give me William Contreras. Give me

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Speaker 5: a contraris.

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Speaker 3: Highest ketcher I've taken so far this whole draft season.

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Speaker 3: With Sean Murphy in an auction, I paid sixteen and

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Speaker 3: I was a keeper league. It's I'm with you, guys.

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Speaker 3: I tend I'm not if you if somebody, if you

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Speaker 3: see my draft board, I took a catcher on the

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Speaker 3: top one hundred. It was either because JT. Real Mutle

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Speaker 3: fell quite a bit or somebody's kidnapped me.

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Speaker 2: Right, got to do a wellness check on Collette. Let's

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Speaker 2: go to the first basement here collect long did you

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Speaker 2: start with this one? Who is your twenty twenty three

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Speaker 2: bust at that position?

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Speaker 1: Potentially?

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Speaker 3: So I went with Nathaniel low here with Texas, and

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Speaker 3: when you look at him last year he hit over

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Speaker 3: three hundred, kind of out of nowhere, and what you

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Speaker 3: look at you have to take a look at the

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Speaker 3: spray chart, and this is one of those things where

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Speaker 3: I look at the law of unintended consequences with the

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Speaker 3: new defensive rules. If you look at the way he

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Speaker 3: hit last year, he had a lot of soft contact

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Speaker 3: the other direction because the defense was giving it to him,

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Speaker 3: and he's like, fine, I'll take it. But there you

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Speaker 3: see a lot of infield hits going that direction where

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Speaker 3: there's going to be a fielder this year. And you

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Speaker 3: look at the aggregate projections for him, most people have

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Speaker 3: him down in the two sixties. And that's that's quite

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Speaker 3: a drop from a guy to hit over three hundred

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Speaker 3: last year and the aggregates have them down where they

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Speaker 3: have them with that and one of the weaknesses that's

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Speaker 3: been in his profile. And I would say this applies

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Speaker 3: to his brother too. I would assume they have the

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Speaker 3: same hitting coach because they have the exact same swing.

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Speaker 3: You know, it's like they have struggled with velocity up

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Speaker 3: And so when I saw Nathaniel Lowe breaking out last year,

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Speaker 3: I'm like, okay, it has to be he closed his hole. Well,

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Speaker 3: you go look at the data. He hasn't the league

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Speaker 3: just for whatever reason, it wasn't pitching him there as much,

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Speaker 3: and he was deciding, okay, I'm just gonna slap it

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Speaker 3: the other way and give me what the defense gives me.

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Speaker 3: So somebody who took that kind of stuff forward in

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Speaker 3: one year, I'm concerned about taking that kind of step back.

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Speaker 3: I don't really see it playing out in the marketplace

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Speaker 3: right now. But that's somebody that I've been avoiding myself.

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Speaker 2: Look, it's a player that in first pase is not

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Speaker 2: super deep. This year, you know, there's certainly a drop

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Speaker 2: off and looking at last year's status.

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Speaker 1: You hope that it holds.

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Speaker 2: But you make a good point, like there's a lot

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Speaker 2: of reason to believe that maybe the batting average of

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Speaker 2: very least does not now Welsh.

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Speaker 1: When we look at the first basement on.

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Speaker 2: Your all Bus team, it's another player who might be

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Speaker 2: moving up in his lineup too, which could affect potentially

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Speaker 2: his RBI totals. He saw him hidden in the two

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Speaker 2: spot this weekend over there for the Philadelphia Phillies. Let's

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Speaker 2: talk about Reee Hoskins.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I picked on Reese simply because well, obviously a

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Speaker 4: couple of reasons, but like one of the biggest ones

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Speaker 4: is this injury that he had the knee surgery in December.

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Speaker 4: I believe he's getting in a game where he got

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Speaker 4: in Sunday or it's today, it's like right around right now,

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Speaker 4: he's just getting into spring, which is a little bit

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Speaker 4: of a setback, which I don't love. Lineup potentially moving up,

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Speaker 4: you could look at RBI opportunities come down. Also, XBA

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Speaker 4: we expected batting average is lower than his batting averages

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Speaker 4: past year. He's had an increase in his k percentage

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Speaker 4: for three straight years, hard hit percentage kind of gone down,

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Speaker 4: exit average, exit velocity kind of leveling down about a

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Speaker 4: mile per hour. So you take all those into consideration,

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Speaker 4: and you look at where he's being drafted, you say,

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Speaker 4: first base is in deep.

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Speaker 5: I don't want to call it.

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Speaker 4: I don't want to make it like, oh, you could

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Speaker 4: just wait forever. But I think it's like you're shopping

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Speaker 4: in different pools. So it's like, if you know you're

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Speaker 4: shopping in, you know, a high end department store, you're

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Speaker 4: getting in the top end, middle end, You're gonna start

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Speaker 4: shopping at Target. But if, like, if you're comfortable shopping

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Speaker 4: at Walmart, I think you can just be comfortable shopping

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Speaker 4: at Walmart with these first Basement and I think there's

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Speaker 4: like six or seven of them, and Ree Hoskins isn't one.

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Speaker 4: His cost comes at nine as far as first baseman,

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Speaker 4: and he's kind of the upper tier of Walmart first Basement.

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Speaker 4: I think you've got Christian Walker C J.

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Speaker 5: Kron. I really like my Ryan Mount Castle and Rowdy Telez.

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Speaker 4: I just would rather move away from Reese Cott Hoskins

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Speaker 4: with some of those decreases, with the injury stuff that's

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Speaker 4: going on, and pay a much cheaper price, potentially three

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Speaker 4: or four or five first basement lower for what I

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Speaker 4: think would be relatively the same production. I mean, he

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Speaker 4: hadn't expected batting average it was under two forty. He

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Speaker 4: hit two forty. I believe it was two thirty six.

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Speaker 4: I can probably get that out of Rowdy Teles with

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Speaker 4: a bigger home run potential and probably pretty close to

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Speaker 4: run in RBI totals, and it'll probably fifty or sixty

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Speaker 4: picks later. So I'm gonna pass on Reee Hoskins and

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Speaker 4: he's going to be my all bus first base.

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Speaker 3: Well, you can also play Devil's advocate and said maybe

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Speaker 3: he performed like that with some of his expected stats

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Speaker 3: last year because of that injury. He was trying to

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Speaker 3: play through that, so you know what happens there. I

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Speaker 3: would also not rule out you know, as you were

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Speaker 3: talking about the different tiers of shopping for first base.

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Speaker 1: You know this.

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Speaker 3: We're also in the season where daily news events move things.

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Speaker 3: It's like a week ago, Oh no, Jose Miranda. The

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Speaker 3: shoulder is problematic, and then he hits two home runs

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Speaker 3: the other day, so okay, now we're all back in

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Speaker 3: Jose Miranda. So and oh he plays first and third,

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Speaker 3: so that's all fun too. So daily events move the

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Speaker 3: needle on something. So as we alarm McGavin lux's acl.

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Speaker 1: Well, sometimes they move them in a very very negative direction.

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Speaker 5: Room down.

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Speaker 2: Let's go to second base, gentlemen, and let's talk about

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Speaker 2: a guy who actually had a bounce back year last year,

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Speaker 2: but apparently the Welsh isn't buying it. Who's the second

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Speaker 2: basement on your bus team?

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Speaker 3: Okay?

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Speaker 4: So I actually really struggle with this one because of

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Speaker 4: what we've talked about before. The position is not great.

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Speaker 4: It really kind of stinks towards the middle end. So

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Speaker 4: it's like, do I want to pick on the top guys.

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Speaker 4: I kind of thought about Ozzie Albi's because Jason is

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Speaker 4: about to just ruin my day and ruin everybody's with

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Speaker 4: all the positive things we talked about with the guy

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Speaker 4: I love more than anybody, So can you really have

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Speaker 4: post one hundred and second basemen that are going to

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Speaker 4: kind of flop? So my point was picking on with

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Speaker 4: Labor Torres is. You know, he's got a lot of competition.

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Speaker 4: That team seems like they are really opening up the

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Speaker 4: possibility of Anthony Volpi and Oswald Perrazza being there sooner

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Speaker 4: rather than later. There's a lot of trade rumors that

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Speaker 4: were going on. I don't know if they fully fully

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Speaker 4: believe in what he did last year. Again, you have

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Speaker 4: another instance of like an expected batting average, it is

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Speaker 4: quite a bit lower. He hit the ball a ton harder,

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Speaker 4: but where he's going as far as second basement is

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Speaker 4: the eighth overall second basement. So really the bus side

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Speaker 4: of this is like feeling comfortable and not taking one

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Speaker 4: of those guys to get Glabor Torres. I think it's

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Speaker 4: going to be a big disappointment. So when I'm looking

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Speaker 4: at these guys, what I want.

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Speaker 5: Because there's a big tear drop here.

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Speaker 4: By the way, seven and up is inside the top

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Speaker 4: one hundred eighty fifth according to Fantasy pros overall is

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Speaker 4: Andre Simenez, and that's a seventh second basement. Then you

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Speaker 4: drop like twenty spots and you go into the next guy,

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Speaker 4: which is Glabor Torres. Would I rather pay a close

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Speaker 4: to one hundred price with that type of gap for Torres,

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Speaker 4: or take Monsey later, or take a bounce back on

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Speaker 4: Brandon Lowe. At the end of the day, I'd rather

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Speaker 4: take any of the top seven. And he is the

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Speaker 4: representative of the first bit where I hate second base,

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Speaker 4: so he is kind of the culprit here. Plus I

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Speaker 4: do think the team is really opening up that opportunity

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Speaker 4: to get him out of here sooner rather than later.

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Speaker 1: You know what's funny.

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Speaker 2: I'm looking at Tho the opportunities or where he might

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Speaker 2: land in such a speculative trade, and the only one

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Speaker 2: that really came to mind for me was the Dodgers

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Speaker 2: now because they've got some open season issues now in

315
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Speaker 2: the middle infield, he could play shortstop, he could play second,

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Speaker 2: depending on how you want to.

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Speaker 1: Move those things around. So there's not a lot of

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Speaker 1: suitors out there.

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Speaker 2: Were like everything matches up for the New York Yankees

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Speaker 2: and for Labor Torres. But you're right if they think

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Speaker 2: that last year was hey, let's get out before the

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Speaker 2: you know, the bottom drops out again, Torres, that could

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Speaker 2: certainly be something to keep an eye on later in

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Speaker 2: And now back to the act. Let's get to your

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Speaker 2: second base bust Jason Collett, who is it?

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Speaker 3: Let's break hearts chism? And I will say this, I love,

361
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Speaker 3: I love.

362
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Speaker 1: That you're a liar.

363
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Speaker 3: You do not actually.

364
00:14:45,240 --> 00:14:48,080
Speaker 5: Hate him, you hate him him being a ust you.

365
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Speaker 3: Know, I love. I love that he's on the cover

366
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Speaker 3: of the video gay. I love the last year, you know,

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Speaker 3: James Anderson and I were like on the front end

368
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Speaker 3: of this is this is a guy, Let's let's stay in.

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Speaker 3: People were trying to fade them out, and I remember

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Speaker 3: James and I have been very aggressive with him. But

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Speaker 3: my big concern is he's had trouble staying on the field.

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Speaker 3: He's moving from second base to center field, which is

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Speaker 3: a position that puts them at more risk from injury.

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Speaker 3: So you have that position switch in a big part

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Speaker 3: for him to cover some ground with help, with not

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Speaker 3: as much help on either side of him that he

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Speaker 3: should have. That's really where my concern is. It's not

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Speaker 3: his abilities, it's all the other factors that play into it.

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Speaker 3: And when you see when you see him inside the

380
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Speaker 3: top fifty, that's where my concern is with him. I

381
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Speaker 3: struggle to see how he's going to achieve that return

382
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Speaker 3: on investment with those factors playing against him. It's nothing

383
00:15:37,760 --> 00:15:40,440
Speaker 3: about anything else that I see in his profile outside

384
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Speaker 3: of that health grade, which is is tough to ignore,

385
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Speaker 3: and the fact that he's moving to a tougher physical

386
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Speaker 3: position than second base.

387
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Speaker 1: It's tough to nore.

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Speaker 2: And I think you make a great point there about

389
00:15:50,360 --> 00:15:53,400
Speaker 2: everything which isn't It is also sometimes we get wrapped

390
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Speaker 2: up in the excitement of a player, you know, and

391
00:15:55,320 --> 00:15:56,360
Speaker 2: that happens quite a bit.

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Speaker 1: But last year, the guy.

393
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Speaker 2: Who played sixty games, I mean it was a fun

394
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Speaker 2: sixty games, fourteen homers, twelve still on bases. You know

395
00:16:02,040 --> 00:16:04,720
Speaker 2: a lot of things and a flashy, entertaining something that's

396
00:16:04,760 --> 00:16:07,000
Speaker 2: you know, fun to watch. That fun to watch factor

397
00:16:07,080 --> 00:16:08,960
Speaker 2: sometimes gets you in trouble in fantasy. You want guys

398
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Speaker 2: that are fun to play every day. And certainly there's

399
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Speaker 2: some tenuous situations there potentially for Jassism and the ADP range.

400
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Speaker 1: He's going in. Let's go to third.

401
00:16:18,080 --> 00:16:21,040
Speaker 2: Base, and you've got another young player that people are

402
00:16:21,040 --> 00:16:23,320
Speaker 2: excited about that you are not Jason Colletz.

403
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Speaker 1: Let's talk about all right.

404
00:16:24,680 --> 00:16:26,800
Speaker 3: So this is Jordan Walker and I was in Florida

405
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Speaker 3: this weekend. I was at the game that he hit

406
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Speaker 3: the four hundred and fifty and the four hundit seventy

407
00:16:30,400 --> 00:16:32,520
Speaker 3: foot home runs. I will also add that wind was

408
00:16:32,560 --> 00:16:35,160
Speaker 3: blowing out about two hundred miles an hour that it

409
00:16:35,200 --> 00:16:37,760
Speaker 3: would not have stopped either one of those. I mean,

410
00:16:37,760 --> 00:16:40,680
Speaker 3: they were both well hit. But that said, we talked

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Speaker 3: about this a little bit on the First Pitch Florida

412
00:16:42,560 --> 00:16:45,040
Speaker 3: panel this weekend, done in West Palm Beach. You know,

413
00:16:45,400 --> 00:16:47,760
Speaker 3: I have to wonder how much of Jordan Walker's current

414
00:16:47,800 --> 00:16:51,800
Speaker 3: market price is being influenced by what Rodriguez and Bobby

415
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Speaker 3: wit just did last year. Because we saw these two

416
00:16:54,960 --> 00:16:58,480
Speaker 3: guys and the great thing about Julio Rodriguez and maybe

417
00:16:58,480 --> 00:17:00,920
Speaker 3: you can make the same type of care comps because

418
00:17:01,240 --> 00:17:03,720
Speaker 3: everybody says both these guys have an eighty grade character.

419
00:17:04,280 --> 00:17:06,879
Speaker 3: And you saw how Julio Rodriguez made the end season

420
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Speaker 3: adjustment once the Empire started giving him a giant zone

421
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Speaker 3: and it's like, okay here, He's like, okay, fine, if

422
00:17:11,560 --> 00:17:13,119
Speaker 3: you're going to call that a strike, I now know

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00:17:13,200 --> 00:17:14,679
Speaker 3: what to do. And then he went off and just

424
00:17:14,760 --> 00:17:17,320
Speaker 3: tore the cover off the baseball, and Jordan Walker could

425
00:17:17,400 --> 00:17:19,359
Speaker 3: very well do the same thing. It's just to me

426
00:17:19,440 --> 00:17:23,000
Speaker 3: when I look at Walker, we also cannot forget Jared

427
00:17:23,080 --> 00:17:26,000
Speaker 3: Kelnick is on that possibility a range of outcomes too,

428
00:17:26,119 --> 00:17:28,560
Speaker 3: and that was very recent as well. And Jared Kelnick

429
00:17:28,600 --> 00:17:31,119
Speaker 3: was a can't miss guy and he's missed a lot

430
00:17:31,119 --> 00:17:33,560
Speaker 3: of baseballs. I know he's having a great spring at all,

431
00:17:33,600 --> 00:17:35,879
Speaker 3: but your range of outcomes could vary there. And the

432
00:17:35,920 --> 00:17:38,320
Speaker 3: other thing I have about Walker concern wise, is we

433
00:17:38,359 --> 00:17:41,919
Speaker 3: haven't seen how he's going to handle experienced pitchers that

434
00:17:41,960 --> 00:17:44,520
Speaker 3: can command the baseball. He's only hit double A and

435
00:17:44,600 --> 00:17:46,880
Speaker 3: we're seeing him do some things in spring this year

436
00:17:47,440 --> 00:17:49,560
Speaker 3: and small stints. But I want to see how he

437
00:17:49,640 --> 00:17:52,720
Speaker 3: handles those crafty veterans in trip La. I want to

438
00:17:52,760 --> 00:17:55,080
Speaker 3: see what he can do against a major leagueers, because

439
00:17:55,080 --> 00:17:57,560
Speaker 3: they will quickly find flaws. They found it, and they

440
00:17:57,600 --> 00:18:00,000
Speaker 3: found it in Kellnick and they just pounded on him

441
00:18:00,520 --> 00:18:02,560
Speaker 3: and he's been forced to adjust. And I want to

442
00:18:02,560 --> 00:18:05,200
Speaker 3: see what they do when they find Walker, because everybody

443
00:18:05,240 --> 00:18:08,080
Speaker 3: has one. Once these experienced guys find out, how is

444
00:18:08,080 --> 00:18:10,400
Speaker 3: he going to adjust? We know the regression's already begun

445
00:18:10,480 --> 00:18:12,640
Speaker 3: because he was old for four or two strikeasts yesterday.

446
00:18:12,800 --> 00:18:17,600
Speaker 5: So Jason can something? Can she something? Jason? Do you

447
00:18:17,680 --> 00:18:19,359
Speaker 5: want to be a bad guy? Are you trying to

448
00:18:19,359 --> 00:18:19,840
Speaker 5: be a villain?

449
00:18:20,840 --> 00:18:23,199
Speaker 3: Is this from the office? I am the thief of joy.

450
00:18:23,359 --> 00:18:24,879
Speaker 5: I'm just making sure just right.

451
00:18:24,960 --> 00:18:27,800
Speaker 4: I mean, you're picking on everybody's favorite players and lovel

452
00:18:27,840 --> 00:18:28,240
Speaker 4: I get that.

453
00:18:28,440 --> 00:18:30,679
Speaker 5: I Actually the only thing I would question.

454
00:18:30,560 --> 00:18:33,280
Speaker 4: Is like where are we at with Walker where he

455
00:18:33,320 --> 00:18:36,360
Speaker 4: becomes a bus because he was post I think when

456
00:18:36,359 --> 00:18:39,080
Speaker 4: he was post two fifty and Joe and I have

457
00:18:39,160 --> 00:18:41,399
Speaker 4: been talking about him and he push up and if

458
00:18:41,440 --> 00:18:44,199
Speaker 4: he truly does get a roster spot and jumps inside

459
00:18:44,200 --> 00:18:46,840
Speaker 4: the top one hundred, then you're kind of like lopping

460
00:18:46,880 --> 00:18:48,800
Speaker 4: some of that off and you're taking off the value

461
00:18:48,800 --> 00:18:50,760
Speaker 4: and stuff like that. But I do think you have

462
00:18:50,800 --> 00:18:54,120
Speaker 4: to kind of consider, like what rookies have done, where

463
00:18:54,160 --> 00:18:56,600
Speaker 4: the talent is, and where he's going to really being

464
00:18:56,600 --> 00:18:58,840
Speaker 4: about a bus But to your point, there might not

465
00:18:58,880 --> 00:19:01,680
Speaker 4: be a buzzier play that is on everyone's target list

466
00:19:02,480 --> 00:19:04,280
Speaker 4: for this coming week or the next couple of weeks

467
00:19:04,320 --> 00:19:06,520
Speaker 4: because of what he's doing and the likelihood he is

468
00:19:06,560 --> 00:19:08,639
Speaker 4: to make that roster. But he still is coming at

469
00:19:08,680 --> 00:19:12,640
Speaker 4: a cheaper cost unless it has pushed that top one hundred's.

470
00:19:13,560 --> 00:19:15,560
Speaker 1: Right now, he's still overall two twenty.

471
00:19:15,320 --> 00:19:17,639
Speaker 3: F its like he's jumping around every at bat. But

472
00:19:17,680 --> 00:19:20,560
Speaker 3: I mean, honestly, I would say this weekend, this weekend

473
00:19:20,560 --> 00:19:23,640
Speaker 3: at Labor, he went seventeen in NL only he went

474
00:19:23,720 --> 00:19:26,320
Speaker 3: twelve and the twelve team mixed, and that was a

475
00:19:26,359 --> 00:19:29,119
Speaker 3: better price I thought for your twelve dollars. If I'm

476
00:19:29,119 --> 00:19:30,840
Speaker 3: going to twelve teen mixed league, that's a risk I'm

477
00:19:30,880 --> 00:19:34,080
Speaker 3: willing to take. I saw some people speculating that there's

478
00:19:34,080 --> 00:19:36,040
Speaker 3: a potential he could go in the first six rounds

479
00:19:36,080 --> 00:19:38,639
Speaker 3: of main event week and that wouldn't ye know, it

480
00:19:38,720 --> 00:19:40,960
Speaker 3: kind of wouldn't spread the trajectory if he keeps doing

481
00:19:41,000 --> 00:19:43,439
Speaker 3: what he's doing, we're going to see that rot just

482
00:19:43,560 --> 00:19:45,480
Speaker 3: keep it's going to go number one with the bullet.

483
00:19:45,480 --> 00:19:47,280
Speaker 3: I mean, he's not going to get up there. I

484
00:19:47,320 --> 00:19:49,800
Speaker 3: would be stunned if he got inside the top seventy five.

485
00:19:49,920 --> 00:19:52,680
Speaker 3: But the way he's hitting right now, somebody's gonna take

486
00:19:52,680 --> 00:19:53,119
Speaker 3: that chance.

487
00:19:53,600 --> 00:19:56,639
Speaker 4: Next up on Jason's list, he hates Julio Rodriguez and

488
00:19:56,680 --> 00:19:59,080
Speaker 4: then Ronald all buy him.

489
00:19:59,119 --> 00:20:00,879
Speaker 5: Just letting everybody know, well, she.

490
00:20:01,000 --> 00:20:02,560
Speaker 2: Was the third basement on your All Bus team for

491
00:20:02,560 --> 00:20:03,199
Speaker 2: twenty three.

492
00:20:03,960 --> 00:20:06,320
Speaker 4: Kind of just like the other position. I'm staying in

493
00:20:06,359 --> 00:20:08,400
Speaker 4: this same kind of pool of talking about tiers of players,

494
00:20:08,440 --> 00:20:11,720
Speaker 4: and Johanneo Suarez just continuously doesn't jump out to me. Matt,

495
00:20:11,760 --> 00:20:14,439
Speaker 4: you know, I would have also said Matt Chapman. Matt Chapman, though,

496
00:20:14,480 --> 00:20:16,560
Speaker 4: hits the ball really hard, kind of across the board, obviously,

497
00:20:16,680 --> 00:20:19,800
Speaker 4: Johanneo Swarez can hit the ball hard, but struggles with

498
00:20:19,880 --> 00:20:22,679
Speaker 4: batting average, really really bad whiffs. He was in the

499
00:20:22,680 --> 00:20:25,520
Speaker 4: bottom five percent tile of K percentage this past year.

500
00:20:25,800 --> 00:20:28,640
Speaker 4: Projections hate him this year, I mean two thirty six.

501
00:20:28,720 --> 00:20:31,000
Speaker 4: Last year was an anomaly. The previous two years he'd

502
00:20:31,000 --> 00:20:33,920
Speaker 4: barely hit over two hundred. He had a three hundred

503
00:20:33,920 --> 00:20:36,159
Speaker 4: Babbitt this past year hit two thirty six. Even the

504
00:20:36,240 --> 00:20:39,480
Speaker 4: bat x is at two oh nine. I don't get

505
00:20:39,520 --> 00:20:41,879
Speaker 4: down with guys that are going to hit sub two twenty.

506
00:20:41,920 --> 00:20:42,600
Speaker 5: I just can't do it.

507
00:20:42,600 --> 00:20:45,479
Speaker 4: I can't talk myself into it under any circumstance. And

508
00:20:45,520 --> 00:20:47,280
Speaker 4: I just think that this is a guy that, as

509
00:20:47,359 --> 00:20:49,800
Speaker 4: far as ADP is going, has him as a starting

510
00:20:50,080 --> 00:20:53,560
Speaker 4: third baseman in any format you play in except for

511
00:20:53,640 --> 00:20:56,479
Speaker 4: eight man leagues. That is a starting third baseman. And

512
00:20:56,520 --> 00:20:58,720
Speaker 4: that's a recipe for disaster if you really believe it's

513
00:20:58,720 --> 00:21:01,080
Speaker 4: going to work out. Plus, I think there are better options,

514
00:21:01,080 --> 00:21:03,800
Speaker 4: safer options. Jason talked about Jose Miranda, who I have

515
00:21:03,880 --> 00:21:05,280
Speaker 4: been talking about since November.

516
00:21:05,440 --> 00:21:08,520
Speaker 5: I love him. I think the contact skills are there,

517
00:21:08,560 --> 00:21:09,600
Speaker 5: I think the powers there.

518
00:21:09,640 --> 00:21:14,160
Speaker 4: I think he's an exponentially better fantasy player than Johannio Suarez.

519
00:21:14,240 --> 00:21:16,480
Speaker 4: If I wanted floor, I could go Ty France stolen

520
00:21:16,520 --> 00:21:18,320
Speaker 4: bases to keep Brian Hayes. Not that I want to

521
00:21:18,320 --> 00:21:21,960
Speaker 4: do all this. Third base, like second base stinks more

522
00:21:21,960 --> 00:21:24,160
Speaker 4: so than anything else. I don't want a sub two

523
00:21:24,160 --> 00:21:26,520
Speaker 4: twenty batting average guy and it's a recipe for a bust.

524
00:21:27,359 --> 00:21:29,360
Speaker 2: It's a good one there. I'm with you on Suarez.

525
00:21:29,400 --> 00:21:31,280
Speaker 2: Let's go to the shortstops, Welsh, who makes the list

526
00:21:31,320 --> 00:21:31,640
Speaker 2: for you?

527
00:21:32,480 --> 00:21:35,480
Speaker 4: On the shortstops, there are some to pick from, and

528
00:21:35,800 --> 00:21:37,919
Speaker 4: I've actually been picking on the bottom end of a

529
00:21:37,920 --> 00:21:38,440
Speaker 4: lot of them.

530
00:21:38,880 --> 00:21:39,359
Speaker 3: This time.

531
00:21:39,440 --> 00:21:41,400
Speaker 4: It might surprise a lot of people, even Joe, because

532
00:21:41,440 --> 00:21:43,840
Speaker 4: I've always been just had like a little soft spot

533
00:21:43,840 --> 00:21:44,480
Speaker 4: in my heart for him.

534
00:21:44,520 --> 00:21:45,879
Speaker 5: But I'm gonna go with Carlos Korea.

535
00:21:46,160 --> 00:21:50,199
Speaker 4: And I think Carlos Korea is a safety net for

536
00:21:50,280 --> 00:21:52,679
Speaker 4: all these people that go. Okay, guess what shortstop is

537
00:21:52,680 --> 00:21:55,320
Speaker 4: really safe this year? It's a safe position I can

538
00:21:55,440 --> 00:21:56,920
Speaker 4: if I don't take them. I don't need to take Trade.

539
00:21:57,040 --> 00:21:58,400
Speaker 4: I mean they would take Trait Turn, but I don't

540
00:21:58,400 --> 00:22:00,720
Speaker 4: need to take Boba Schett. I don't need to take

541
00:22:00,800 --> 00:22:02,920
Speaker 4: Lynn Door because I can just keep going back and back.

542
00:22:03,240 --> 00:22:06,119
Speaker 4: I actually think the position once you get out of

543
00:22:06,119 --> 00:22:10,360
Speaker 4: that top eight is just crazy scary. I think there

544
00:22:10,400 --> 00:22:13,680
Speaker 4: are questions with danzby Swanson. I think Tim Anderson's injury

545
00:22:13,680 --> 00:22:16,640
Speaker 4: injury history, everybody is just giving a pass for when

546
00:22:16,640 --> 00:22:18,760
Speaker 4: they don't give it for anybody else. He's the Byron

547
00:22:18,800 --> 00:22:21,879
Speaker 4: Buxton of shortstops, and then you come back to Carlos Korea.

548
00:22:22,280 --> 00:22:25,000
Speaker 4: Carlos Korea couldn't pass the physical I don't even need

549
00:22:25,000 --> 00:22:26,280
Speaker 4: to do the same stuff. We all know he didn't

550
00:22:26,280 --> 00:22:28,480
Speaker 4: pass the physicals and everything like that, but as well,

551
00:22:28,760 --> 00:22:31,280
Speaker 4: he just doesn't live up. He's had one season where

552
00:22:31,280 --> 00:22:33,440
Speaker 4: we've had the run RBI totals that have been there,

553
00:22:33,560 --> 00:22:36,000
Speaker 4: hasn't stolen a base in three plus years, doesn't hit

554
00:22:36,040 --> 00:22:39,480
Speaker 4: over twenty five homers, perpetually injured, and he's the guy

555
00:22:39,520 --> 00:22:41,959
Speaker 4: that every gun goes, Okay, well, I can draft him

556
00:22:41,960 --> 00:22:44,359
Speaker 4: if I don't get anybody to be fair because of

557
00:22:44,400 --> 00:22:47,320
Speaker 4: the position eligibility. He's like seventeenth on Fantasy pros list.

558
00:22:47,520 --> 00:22:50,399
Speaker 4: But he's a guy that I am pretty firmly avoiding overall,

559
00:22:50,400 --> 00:22:51,080
Speaker 4: and I think he's going.

560
00:22:51,040 --> 00:22:53,120
Speaker 1: To be a bust. Hey, look, you know what I've

561
00:22:53,119 --> 00:22:54,119
Speaker 1: already said about Korea.

562
00:22:54,320 --> 00:22:57,040
Speaker 2: You know, when two teams pass on your medicals, you know,

563
00:22:57,080 --> 00:22:58,160
Speaker 2: maybe it's a long term.

564
00:22:57,960 --> 00:22:59,840
Speaker 1: Issue, but maybe it's more of a short term issue too.

565
00:22:59,840 --> 00:23:02,400
Speaker 2: And let's not pretend like career has been the picture

566
00:23:02,400 --> 00:23:04,959
Speaker 2: of health in his career period leading up to that,

567
00:23:05,040 --> 00:23:06,199
Speaker 2: So at a deeper position.

568
00:23:06,280 --> 00:23:07,920
Speaker 1: I think there's some shots that I'd rather take.

569
00:23:08,440 --> 00:23:10,679
Speaker 2: Who are you taking a shot at at shortstop here

570
00:23:10,680 --> 00:23:12,040
Speaker 2: and putting them on the all Bus team.

571
00:23:12,080 --> 00:23:16,360
Speaker 3: Collett Wilson mentioned it, we talked about. He mentioned Dansby Swanson.

572
00:23:16,640 --> 00:23:20,359
Speaker 3: Dan Sby Swanson, I felt he was very very well

573
00:23:20,359 --> 00:23:22,600
Speaker 3: insulated last year in Atlanta and took advantage of a

574
00:23:22,720 --> 00:23:25,840
Speaker 3: very good surrounding cast to put up his numbers. He

575
00:23:25,880 --> 00:23:28,960
Speaker 3: does not have that same insulation with the Cubs, so

576
00:23:29,200 --> 00:23:31,120
Speaker 3: that to me, it's like when you look at where

577
00:23:31,119 --> 00:23:33,760
Speaker 3: his market prices now, I haven't seen that much of

578
00:23:33,800 --> 00:23:36,520
Speaker 3: an adjustment. It's like, Okay, he's just taking those talents

579
00:23:36,640 --> 00:23:39,720
Speaker 3: north to Chicago and things should be just fine. I'm

580
00:23:39,720 --> 00:23:43,560
Speaker 3: not there because the surrounding cast is big change for him,

581
00:23:44,000 --> 00:23:47,399
Speaker 3: and so I expect about a fifteen percent reduction in

582
00:23:47,440 --> 00:23:50,240
Speaker 3: his overall production. That's not playing out in his current

583
00:23:50,240 --> 00:23:52,639
Speaker 3: market value. So that's somebody I have stayed away from.

584
00:23:53,320 --> 00:23:55,560
Speaker 2: I'm stay away from the Cubs period for the most part.

585
00:23:55,600 --> 00:23:56,359
Speaker 1: Collette, I'm just.

586
00:23:56,240 --> 00:23:59,200
Speaker 2: Not buying this whole half ass sort of We're gonna

587
00:23:59,200 --> 00:24:01,480
Speaker 2: throw some money at some shoes and take some players

588
00:24:01,520 --> 00:24:02,240
Speaker 2: and see what happens.

589
00:24:02,320 --> 00:24:03,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's weird build.

590
00:24:03,160 --> 00:24:06,439
Speaker 4: Theoretically, It'szki's already hurt too, Sazuki's hurt.

591
00:24:06,600 --> 00:24:08,320
Speaker 5: I Actually I just high highlighted this.

592
00:24:08,359 --> 00:24:10,600
Speaker 4: If anyone listened to the microcast and Fantasy pros, Dansby

593
00:24:10,640 --> 00:24:13,320
Speaker 4: Swanson was in a top ten bus we were talking about.

594
00:24:13,320 --> 00:24:14,560
Speaker 4: He was one of the ones I put in there

595
00:24:14,560 --> 00:24:16,600
Speaker 4: because I agree. And it's back to that same Carlos

596
00:24:16,680 --> 00:24:19,000
Speaker 4: Korea thing that it's just like there's all these guys

597
00:24:19,160 --> 00:24:21,159
Speaker 4: that people are like comfortably sitting all this will be

598
00:24:21,200 --> 00:24:22,800
Speaker 4: my starting short step. I really don't want it. I

599
00:24:22,840 --> 00:24:26,040
Speaker 4: want one of the elite, top tier guys. Dansby Swanson

600
00:24:26,520 --> 00:24:28,440
Speaker 4: does feel like one of those guys that you're paying

601
00:24:28,440 --> 00:24:30,080
Speaker 4: this year for last year's stats.

602
00:24:30,280 --> 00:24:30,760
Speaker 3: Good point.

603
00:24:31,119 --> 00:24:33,399
Speaker 2: Let's talk about the outfielders that made the team for

604
00:24:33,520 --> 00:24:38,080
Speaker 2: Jason Kleett, Michael Harrow's the second Jake McCarthy and Masataka Yoshida.

605
00:24:38,480 --> 00:24:40,720
Speaker 2: Those are three outfielders. Let's talk about him in a cluster.

606
00:24:40,760 --> 00:24:42,480
Speaker 2: What are your concerns about these guys here?

607
00:24:42,960 --> 00:24:43,760
Speaker 1: Rittle them off for me?

608
00:24:43,840 --> 00:24:46,640
Speaker 3: Collect sure. With Harris it's you know, people, he's he's

609
00:24:46,680 --> 00:24:48,640
Speaker 3: in the back of the second round. Now that's where

610
00:24:48,640 --> 00:24:51,760
Speaker 3: he's going. And when I try to look for historical comps.

611
00:24:51,800 --> 00:24:53,439
Speaker 3: So when I'm I'm looking at players, and when I

612
00:24:53,480 --> 00:24:56,399
Speaker 3: look at young players that have such a gap between

613
00:24:56,400 --> 00:24:58,920
Speaker 3: their walk rate and their strikeout rate. When I when

614
00:24:58,920 --> 00:25:00,960
Speaker 3: I went back and looked at rec examples, guys that

615
00:25:01,000 --> 00:25:05,120
Speaker 3: popped on that were Dylan Carlson, Ian happ and these aren't.

616
00:25:05,160 --> 00:25:08,080
Speaker 3: These weren't great sophomore seasons Cody bell But you know,

617
00:25:08,080 --> 00:25:09,960
Speaker 3: Bellinger had a season when he was twenty three. It

618
00:25:10,000 --> 00:25:12,240
Speaker 3: wasn't his sophomore year, but he had he was coming

619
00:25:12,280 --> 00:25:14,320
Speaker 3: back from their hurt shoulder. But when you look at

620
00:25:14,320 --> 00:25:16,480
Speaker 3: young players that have a big gap between their walk

621
00:25:16,480 --> 00:25:19,639
Speaker 3: and strikeout rate, they tend to either tread water or

622
00:25:19,680 --> 00:25:22,360
Speaker 3: declined a little bit rather than take another step forward.

623
00:25:22,920 --> 00:25:25,159
Speaker 3: And Harris, his defense is going to keep him in

624
00:25:25,160 --> 00:25:26,919
Speaker 3: the lineup. I've seen some people say, oh, you know

625
00:25:26,960 --> 00:25:29,880
Speaker 3: against lefties, still sit, No, he'll stay. He's just probably

626
00:25:29,920 --> 00:25:32,320
Speaker 3: going to go down the ninth because they have options.

627
00:25:32,359 --> 00:25:34,240
Speaker 3: They don't have to hit him second all year like

628
00:25:34,280 --> 00:25:36,560
Speaker 3: they like they did once they called him up, and

629
00:25:36,600 --> 00:25:39,879
Speaker 3: so against those lefties, him coming down and some of

630
00:25:39,920 --> 00:25:42,960
Speaker 3: the historical concerns that have happened with sophomores that have

631
00:25:43,119 --> 00:25:48,359
Speaker 3: had that type of plate disciplined type of issues. I

632
00:25:48,400 --> 00:25:51,880
Speaker 3: am not paying that second round value. I believe by

633
00:25:52,000 --> 00:25:54,080
Speaker 3: season's end his value is going to be closer to

634
00:25:54,320 --> 00:25:57,040
Speaker 3: fifth sixth round. And you know, if you draft him

635
00:25:57,040 --> 00:25:59,399
Speaker 3: as the second round, you're getting fifth six return to me.

636
00:25:59,520 --> 00:26:03,560
Speaker 3: That hits the bus area. When I look at McCarthy again,

637
00:26:04,000 --> 00:26:05,879
Speaker 3: when something comes out of nowhere, you got to look

638
00:26:05,960 --> 00:26:07,760
Speaker 3: at look at where did it? Where can it go

639
00:26:07,840 --> 00:26:09,840
Speaker 3: from there? And a lot of his stuff you look at,

640
00:26:10,119 --> 00:26:11,840
Speaker 3: you know, I heard somebody this week and call it

641
00:26:11,880 --> 00:26:15,480
Speaker 3: the lollipop screen on statcast, and the speed stands out.

642
00:26:15,960 --> 00:26:19,520
Speaker 3: Everything else is blue blue, blue, blue blue, as Wels's

643
00:26:19,560 --> 00:26:22,760
Speaker 3: shirt right, and everything else is red on the speed.

644
00:26:22,760 --> 00:26:25,679
Speaker 3: And so everything that's built on speed, anything happens what

645
00:26:25,720 --> 00:26:27,159
Speaker 3: it happens to the rest of the game. So I

646
00:26:27,200 --> 00:26:29,760
Speaker 3: have concerns about the market and if Arizona, if they

647
00:26:29,840 --> 00:26:32,040
Speaker 3: keep running like they did last year, maybe they do,

648
00:26:32,320 --> 00:26:35,600
Speaker 3: maybe I'm wrong. And then with Yoshida, I just personally

649
00:26:35,600 --> 00:26:39,240
Speaker 3: have had a terrible, terrible track record with everybody coming

650
00:26:39,240 --> 00:26:41,520
Speaker 3: over from me to the Korean Baseball League or the

651
00:26:41,600 --> 00:26:43,919
Speaker 3: Japanese league. Every year, I like I'll buy in. It's

652
00:26:43,920 --> 00:26:45,720
Speaker 3: gonna be this guy. It's gonna be this guy. Every

653
00:26:45,760 --> 00:26:47,959
Speaker 3: year it's been disappointment. Last year I was all in

654
00:26:48,000 --> 00:26:50,640
Speaker 3: on Suzuki, and when he was healthy, it worked out.

655
00:26:50,760 --> 00:26:54,280
Speaker 3: But he had trouble. He had trouble adjusting to certain things.

656
00:26:54,280 --> 00:26:56,720
Speaker 3: And we still don't know where Yoshet is gonna hit.

657
00:26:57,520 --> 00:27:00,840
Speaker 3: And it's not the same. This isn't your your Boston

658
00:27:00,840 --> 00:27:03,479
Speaker 3: lineup that's gonna put up a ton of runs, and

659
00:27:03,560 --> 00:27:05,000
Speaker 3: so you know they're still trying to figure out. I

660
00:27:05,000 --> 00:27:07,280
Speaker 3: guess Devers is gonna hit second type of thing, but

661
00:27:07,359 --> 00:27:09,760
Speaker 3: this is not the loaded I'm gonna score six runs

662
00:27:09,800 --> 00:27:13,520
Speaker 3: again Boston lineup anymore. So I see these are three

663
00:27:13,600 --> 00:27:15,080
Speaker 3: names that I look at the chart and I'm like,

664
00:27:15,359 --> 00:27:16,720
Speaker 3: I'm not paying those prices.

665
00:27:17,560 --> 00:27:20,560
Speaker 2: Oh, you make great cases for all three of them.

666
00:27:20,960 --> 00:27:23,240
Speaker 2: Yoshida's one definitely sticks out to me in points leagues.

667
00:27:23,240 --> 00:27:25,480
Speaker 2: I can understand, you know, maybe he'll you'll get on

668
00:27:25,520 --> 00:27:27,639
Speaker 2: base and off, it'll do enough things there. I understand that,

669
00:27:27,720 --> 00:27:29,119
Speaker 2: But you don't know what the power is gonna be.

670
00:27:29,160 --> 00:27:31,199
Speaker 2: And Harris as graz as he was, you don't know

671
00:27:31,200 --> 00:27:33,600
Speaker 2: what the adjustments are in year two, the great point.

672
00:27:33,400 --> 00:27:35,240
Speaker 1: There for you Welsh your outfielders.

673
00:27:35,280 --> 00:27:38,359
Speaker 2: Where Louis Robert, which again, this one hurts my soul,

674
00:27:38,600 --> 00:27:41,680
Speaker 2: Cody Bellinger, which I totally get and at least gotta

675
00:27:41,720 --> 00:27:44,120
Speaker 2: see another guy that that's the one to hurt my soul.

676
00:27:44,600 --> 00:27:46,800
Speaker 1: Yeah. Well, and let's talk about these three outfitters.

677
00:27:46,840 --> 00:27:48,600
Speaker 4: Give me, I want to the most compelling case for him.

678
00:27:48,640 --> 00:27:49,960
Speaker 4: I would want to point out by the way, I

679
00:27:49,960 --> 00:27:52,560
Speaker 4: love the McCarthy one. That's when I've really been hitting

680
00:27:52,600 --> 00:27:53,840
Speaker 4: on with a lot of people. I felt like a

681
00:27:53,880 --> 00:27:56,400
Speaker 4: lot of the early stuff was like, oh, death charts,

682
00:27:56,400 --> 00:27:59,080
Speaker 4: he's gonna hit three, He's not. Corman Carroll's gonna lead

683
00:27:59,080 --> 00:28:02,000
Speaker 4: off to tell Martes hit to and Lord of Scuriel

684
00:28:02,119 --> 00:28:05,320
Speaker 4: has hit three in almost every single game this spring,

685
00:28:05,680 --> 00:28:08,600
Speaker 4: including today. He's gonna move further back in the lineup,

686
00:28:08,640 --> 00:28:10,600
Speaker 4: maybe five or six, which could lose some opportunities.

687
00:28:10,600 --> 00:28:11,360
Speaker 5: I think he runs less.

688
00:28:11,359 --> 00:28:13,520
Speaker 4: So I really like that one, all right, So mine,

689
00:28:13,680 --> 00:28:16,320
Speaker 4: Luis Robert, I love this is kind of like the

690
00:28:16,400 --> 00:28:19,160
Speaker 4: Tim Anderson. This is the Byron Buckson thing. He's great

691
00:28:19,200 --> 00:28:21,360
Speaker 4: when he's out there, but he's not out there. He's

692
00:28:21,359 --> 00:28:24,520
Speaker 4: never played a career one hundred games in one season.

693
00:28:24,920 --> 00:28:27,520
Speaker 4: That doesn't work for me. Two eighty four batting average

694
00:28:27,560 --> 00:28:31,000
Speaker 4: is solid, twelve homers, eleven stolen bases in around one

695
00:28:31,080 --> 00:28:35,440
Speaker 4: hundred games. Your best case scenario would be a twenty

696
00:28:35,480 --> 00:28:39,360
Speaker 4: twenty season. But even in the bottom line of projections,

697
00:28:39,440 --> 00:28:41,640
Speaker 4: this is the baseline. This is like you know they're

698
00:28:41,640 --> 00:28:45,520
Speaker 4: giving you the baseline. Best case scenario is twenty homers,

699
00:28:45,520 --> 00:28:48,200
Speaker 4: twelve stolen bases on the bat X. That's not worth

700
00:28:48,200 --> 00:28:50,880
Speaker 4: his price. That's not worth where you're getting Louise Robert

701
00:28:50,880 --> 00:28:53,120
Speaker 4: with the inherent risk, with the injury as well. So

702
00:28:53,280 --> 00:28:55,680
Speaker 4: I love him, but I don't think he's worth the risk.

703
00:28:55,720 --> 00:28:58,640
Speaker 4: And there's so many other players like we make excuses for,

704
00:28:59,000 --> 00:29:01,320
Speaker 4: like why would we take him inside the top fifty

705
00:29:01,440 --> 00:29:03,760
Speaker 4: when he doesn't play those games? And really the return

706
00:29:04,120 --> 00:29:05,960
Speaker 4: I don't want to say it's Carlos Kraa esque because

707
00:29:06,000 --> 00:29:08,320
Speaker 4: he steals bases, but like, are we even going to

708
00:29:08,360 --> 00:29:10,840
Speaker 4: be happy on one hundred and fifty game on Luise Robert?

709
00:29:10,840 --> 00:29:14,000
Speaker 5: I think that's in question. My other guys, who the

710
00:29:14,000 --> 00:29:15,240
Speaker 5: hell do I have? I've got.

711
00:29:16,880 --> 00:29:20,479
Speaker 4: So adulas Cursia. Here's my big thing with him. I

712
00:29:20,560 --> 00:29:23,280
Speaker 4: feel like we all got to this place now where

713
00:29:23,280 --> 00:29:25,520
Speaker 4: we're comfortable. Last year, everyone's like, he can't do it,

714
00:29:25,640 --> 00:29:27,560
Speaker 4: he can't do it again. Then he did do it.

715
00:29:27,800 --> 00:29:31,640
Speaker 4: Xba's up to two forty four, and everyone's like thumbs up. Okay,

716
00:29:32,040 --> 00:29:34,680
Speaker 4: here's what I'm worried about a little bit bigger this offseason.

717
00:29:34,680 --> 00:29:38,520
Speaker 4: I've seen him in camp breaking balls last year kind

718
00:29:38,520 --> 00:29:40,760
Speaker 4: of around thirty percent of his pitches, and he really

719
00:29:40,800 --> 00:29:43,240
Speaker 4: regressed the year before. In twenty twenty one, he hit

720
00:29:43,280 --> 00:29:45,960
Speaker 4: two fifty six, which is the highest batting average against

721
00:29:46,000 --> 00:29:49,080
Speaker 4: any This past year, he started to really hit up

722
00:29:49,080 --> 00:29:53,200
Speaker 4: fastballs and the breaking balls tanked his fifth percentage forty

723
00:29:53,240 --> 00:29:55,560
Speaker 4: one percent on them, and he only hit one ninety nine.

724
00:29:55,600 --> 00:29:57,360
Speaker 4: I think pitchers are going to adjust to him. I

725
00:29:57,440 --> 00:30:00,160
Speaker 4: think that comfort level we have in aduls is going

726
00:30:00,200 --> 00:30:01,960
Speaker 4: to do us wrong because the same thing.

727
00:30:01,840 --> 00:30:04,120
Speaker 5: The crazy price. It is crazy crazy.

728
00:30:03,760 --> 00:30:06,840
Speaker 4: Price right now, and he makes bad contact, he swings

729
00:30:06,840 --> 00:30:10,040
Speaker 4: through everything, and he's really just barely stabilizing that two

730
00:30:10,080 --> 00:30:12,200
Speaker 4: forty four to keep going. I don't think it's going

731
00:30:12,280 --> 00:30:14,160
Speaker 4: to be there. I think he's going to get attacked

732
00:30:14,160 --> 00:30:16,400
Speaker 4: a lot more with breaking pitches, and I just don't

733
00:30:16,400 --> 00:30:19,480
Speaker 4: think he has the like floor to maintain a top

734
00:30:19,480 --> 00:30:21,520
Speaker 4: fifty five overall player. I think he could still be good,

735
00:30:21,800 --> 00:30:23,400
Speaker 4: but I think this is a matter of you paid

736
00:30:23,440 --> 00:30:25,960
Speaker 4: top fifty. Let's say what is his ADP right now?

737
00:30:26,000 --> 00:30:27,560
Speaker 4: In the dullest Garcia, I want to say, it's like

738
00:30:27,640 --> 00:30:32,200
Speaker 4: forty eight. Yeah, if he returns top eighty or ninety,

739
00:30:32,240 --> 00:30:33,760
Speaker 4: maybe you're going to be okay with it. But like,

740
00:30:33,920 --> 00:30:35,360
Speaker 4: what does he have to do? He has to do

741
00:30:35,440 --> 00:30:37,640
Speaker 4: everything he did last year to return that.

742
00:30:37,680 --> 00:30:39,360
Speaker 5: So I don't like it. And Cody Villain's pretty.

743
00:30:39,280 --> 00:30:41,360
Speaker 2: He's seven in the consensus over on Fantasy Pros and

744
00:30:41,360 --> 00:30:42,720
Speaker 2: I who want to check this, you go to fancypros

745
00:30:42,760 --> 00:30:44,200
Speaker 2: dot com. You can check it out there at the

746
00:30:44,280 --> 00:30:47,960
Speaker 2: rankings page and he is the fifteenth outfielder as well.

747
00:30:47,960 --> 00:30:50,200
Speaker 2: And look at all these guys that you're talking about too.

748
00:30:50,280 --> 00:30:52,920
Speaker 2: Make sure that as you're looking through these names and

749
00:30:52,920 --> 00:30:54,760
Speaker 2: you're hearing these names here too, don't forget that you

750
00:30:54,800 --> 00:30:58,800
Speaker 2: can also put the guys to work here, guys like collect,

751
00:30:58,920 --> 00:31:00,840
Speaker 2: guys like Welsh myself. Well, if you make the cheat

752
00:31:00,880 --> 00:31:02,440
Speaker 2: sheets with the cheat sheet creator and you can go

753
00:31:02,520 --> 00:31:04,480
Speaker 2: use that on the draft Wizard Fancy rose dot com

754
00:31:04,480 --> 00:31:06,920
Speaker 2: slash draft Wizard, you can avoid some of these pitfalls

755
00:31:06,920 --> 00:31:08,760
Speaker 2: are some of these players, which is really useful, so

756
00:31:08,840 --> 00:31:10,920
Speaker 2: make sure you check that out again. Fancy Rose dot

757
00:31:10,920 --> 00:31:13,640
Speaker 2: Com slash Draft Wizard. You could always download the app

758
00:31:13,680 --> 00:31:15,240
Speaker 2: as well, and the chie Chet Career is great because

759
00:31:15,240 --> 00:31:17,920
Speaker 2: you could do a composite of the different analysts you like,

760
00:31:18,040 --> 00:31:20,440
Speaker 2: or you could just stick to one like Jason Collett.

761
00:31:21,040 --> 00:31:22,720
Speaker 1: Jason glet's my guy. That's my dude.

762
00:31:22,960 --> 00:31:25,160
Speaker 5: I hate, he just hates.

763
00:31:25,880 --> 00:31:27,600
Speaker 1: Give me a quick take on Bellinger before we get

764
00:31:27,640 --> 00:31:28,120
Speaker 1: to the pictures here.

765
00:31:28,200 --> 00:31:29,320
Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm just not gonna do it. I'm not going

766
00:31:29,400 --> 00:31:30,280
Speaker 5: to buy back into it.

767
00:31:30,280 --> 00:31:32,760
Speaker 4: I don't think there's any reason he's changed his swing

768
00:31:32,880 --> 00:31:35,920
Speaker 4: like seven hundred times in the last three years. I

769
00:31:35,960 --> 00:31:37,920
Speaker 4: don't see any reason why we should buy it that

770
00:31:37,960 --> 00:31:41,840
Speaker 4: he's going into Chicago. He's still crazy free swinging. Strikeout

771
00:31:41,880 --> 00:31:44,200
Speaker 4: percentage went up this past year, he walked less, he

772
00:31:44,320 --> 00:31:46,840
Speaker 4: hit for a worse batting average than I mean, it's

773
00:31:46,880 --> 00:31:50,920
Speaker 4: just continuous and his XBA was zero point two one three.

774
00:31:51,040 --> 00:31:53,440
Speaker 5: I mean, I don't see why we would.

775
00:31:53,200 --> 00:31:56,040
Speaker 2: Buy Everybody has the same thing Welsh right where they go, Oh,

776
00:31:56,120 --> 00:31:58,480
Speaker 2: it's you know, it's a new situation. Let's give another chance.

777
00:31:58,480 --> 00:31:59,760
Speaker 2: I think it's the worst thing you can do. What

778
00:32:00,440 --> 00:32:02,200
Speaker 2: I like actually want to win.

779
00:32:02,760 --> 00:32:05,040
Speaker 5: I like Cody Bellinger. I want him to succeed.

780
00:32:05,080 --> 00:32:07,680
Speaker 4: I think he's a crazy three hundred home run potential guy,

781
00:32:07,760 --> 00:32:10,320
Speaker 4: but he just doesn't make contact. And like this year,

782
00:32:10,360 --> 00:32:12,280
Speaker 4: I'm trying to make more of a concerted effort than

783
00:32:12,360 --> 00:32:15,880
Speaker 4: anything else to really focus in on guys that make

784
00:32:16,080 --> 00:32:18,000
Speaker 4: consistent contact. And I know that's like, oh, it's such

785
00:32:18,000 --> 00:32:20,640
Speaker 4: a stupid whatever, but like Doulos Garcia, I don't think

786
00:32:20,680 --> 00:32:23,720
Speaker 4: it's consistent. Has really big whif issues. Cody Bellinger. Obviously,

787
00:32:23,880 --> 00:32:25,320
Speaker 4: there's a lot of those players who do I like.

788
00:32:25,360 --> 00:32:27,840
Speaker 4: I like the Jose Miranda's my craziest one of all

789
00:32:27,880 --> 00:32:30,440
Speaker 4: of this is probably like O'Neil Cruz and Jazz Chisholm.

790
00:32:30,520 --> 00:32:33,560
Speaker 4: Those are huge swings I want to take because of

791
00:32:33,600 --> 00:32:36,360
Speaker 4: the home run, the power, speed potential. But for the

792
00:32:36,400 --> 00:32:38,320
Speaker 4: most part, if I do take those guys, those are

793
00:32:38,320 --> 00:32:40,280
Speaker 4: my risks. I want to have a lot of balance

794
00:32:40,320 --> 00:32:42,600
Speaker 4: around those teams, and I want guys with really good

795
00:32:42,600 --> 00:32:46,240
Speaker 4: contact skills and these floors, because these dudes, Cody Bellinger

796
00:32:46,400 --> 00:32:48,640
Speaker 4: could be a Fantasy winner, but he also could be

797
00:32:48,680 --> 00:32:49,560
Speaker 4: cut by May.

798
00:32:49,920 --> 00:32:51,760
Speaker 3: He'd also be Joey Gallo this year.

799
00:32:52,120 --> 00:32:56,360
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, great, completely agree.

800
00:32:56,920 --> 00:32:58,880
Speaker 1: I don't want to say about that. I'm speechless.

801
00:32:58,920 --> 00:33:01,040
Speaker 2: All right, let's go to the starting pitchers on the

802
00:33:01,040 --> 00:33:04,800
Speaker 2: list for you, Jason Collett, so further Streider.

803
00:33:04,440 --> 00:33:06,400
Speaker 1: Hold on away. I'm going to name them all.

804
00:33:06,480 --> 00:33:08,120
Speaker 2: I want to let them hang in the ether like

805
00:33:08,160 --> 00:33:10,200
Speaker 2: one of those two bubbles for everybody to take it in.

806
00:33:10,240 --> 00:33:13,680
Speaker 2: Spencer Stryder, who I am so excited about, Shane Bieber,

807
00:33:13,720 --> 00:33:15,680
Speaker 2: who Welsh doesn't like so and you and him are

808
00:33:15,720 --> 00:33:16,840
Speaker 2: going to see why d eye on that one? And

809
00:33:16,920 --> 00:33:19,280
Speaker 2: Hunter Green, which I think we can all understand where

810
00:33:19,280 --> 00:33:22,680
Speaker 2: you're coming from them. So Strider Bieber Green dissect them

811
00:33:22,680 --> 00:33:25,440
Speaker 2: for us. Why are those guys people who have big

812
00:33:25,440 --> 00:33:26,200
Speaker 2: potential bust?

813
00:33:26,840 --> 00:33:29,320
Speaker 3: So for me, I've seen Strider go is sp two

814
00:33:29,960 --> 00:33:32,440
Speaker 3: and to me it's it's when I look at a

815
00:33:32,480 --> 00:33:35,040
Speaker 3: guy who is just turning. He turned twenty four during

816
00:33:35,080 --> 00:33:39,880
Speaker 3: the off season. He went from pitching, you know, pitched

817
00:33:39,880 --> 00:33:43,760
Speaker 3: into twenty nineteen. Twenty twenty was a wash twelve innings

818
00:33:43,760 --> 00:33:46,280
Speaker 3: before the college season was shut down. Uh, you know.

819
00:33:46,400 --> 00:33:49,120
Speaker 3: Twenty one. He had a thirty nine percent jump in

820
00:33:49,160 --> 00:33:52,080
Speaker 3: his workload from twenty twenty one to twenty twenty two.

821
00:33:52,400 --> 00:33:54,400
Speaker 3: If we were to project that type of workload on

822
00:33:54,480 --> 00:33:56,680
Speaker 3: him this year, that means we're taking Strider to one

823
00:33:56,760 --> 00:33:59,360
Speaker 3: hundred and eighty plus innings this year. And that's exactly

824
00:33:59,360 --> 00:34:04,040
Speaker 3: how he's being drafted. And when I you know, Joe,

825
00:34:04,160 --> 00:34:06,160
Speaker 3: you were, you were in New York, you came up

826
00:34:06,200 --> 00:34:08,319
Speaker 3: with the Mets and Generation K. You kind of know

827
00:34:08,360 --> 00:34:11,399
Speaker 3: where I'm hinting at with some of this, But that's

828
00:34:11,440 --> 00:34:12,640
Speaker 3: what I was in high school.

829
00:34:12,680 --> 00:34:14,880
Speaker 2: And you're also hinting at a team that has aspirations

830
00:34:14,880 --> 00:34:16,880
Speaker 2: for the playoffs. So if you're going to push him

831
00:34:16,880 --> 00:34:18,879
Speaker 2: to one aiding in the regular season, that's not even

832
00:34:18,920 --> 00:34:21,440
Speaker 2: talking about what's gonna happen in the playoffs. Socicly, I

833
00:34:21,960 --> 00:34:24,160
Speaker 2: look as SB two, you're one hundred percent.

834
00:34:24,320 --> 00:34:26,680
Speaker 3: That's nuts, But man, I just need I want them.

835
00:34:26,800 --> 00:34:28,920
Speaker 3: I see the risk reward And you can have the

836
00:34:28,920 --> 00:34:31,120
Speaker 3: same conversation with the Grom. It's like the innings that

837
00:34:31,160 --> 00:34:33,239
Speaker 3: he does pitch. I've heard, you know, make this point.

838
00:34:33,280 --> 00:34:35,279
Speaker 3: He was even talking about it this weekend. It's like,

839
00:34:35,280 --> 00:34:36,840
Speaker 3: if the Gram comes out and gets one hundred and

840
00:34:36,880 --> 00:34:38,680
Speaker 3: forty innings, he could be the best pitcher in baseball

841
00:34:38,680 --> 00:34:40,719
Speaker 3: because of the quality of that. And we saw what

842
00:34:40,760 --> 00:34:43,319
Speaker 3: Strider was able to do last year, but again we

843
00:34:43,400 --> 00:34:45,640
Speaker 3: haven't seen how he comes back from a big workload,

844
00:34:45,719 --> 00:34:48,239
Speaker 3: jump and go in thirty eight increase is a big one,

845
00:34:48,360 --> 00:34:51,000
Speaker 3: and that's why I'm like, I've been out on him.

846
00:34:51,239 --> 00:34:52,799
Speaker 3: That said, I do have him for one dollar in

847
00:34:52,840 --> 00:34:55,640
Speaker 3: one of my leagues because I traded what about this

848
00:34:55,840 --> 00:34:58,520
Speaker 3: year when I was dumping so yay. And when I

849
00:34:58,520 --> 00:35:01,759
Speaker 3: look at Shane Bieber, love the pitching style, love to

850
00:35:01,800 --> 00:35:04,920
Speaker 3: watch him pitch, but my biggest concern with him is

851
00:35:04,960 --> 00:35:09,000
Speaker 3: the imbalanced schedule's gone. He had a like a two

852
00:35:09,120 --> 00:35:12,880
Speaker 3: thirteen era against Al Central last year, a three fifty

853
00:35:12,880 --> 00:35:15,320
Speaker 3: two against everybody else, and so he had a lot

854
00:35:15,360 --> 00:35:17,400
Speaker 3: of a lot of sweetness came out of facing the

855
00:35:17,440 --> 00:35:21,000
Speaker 3: Tigers and the Royals and the depleted Twins lineup and

856
00:35:21,040 --> 00:35:24,439
Speaker 3: the White Sox mess repeatedly, and so that big gap.

857
00:35:24,520 --> 00:35:26,160
Speaker 3: Now he's got to play some of those other teams.

858
00:35:26,200 --> 00:35:28,600
Speaker 3: I want to see how that softens up. And then

859
00:35:28,640 --> 00:35:31,759
Speaker 3: with Green, it's nothing about the pitcher, it's the surrounding cast.

860
00:35:31,800 --> 00:35:34,680
Speaker 3: Getting back to the Dansby Swanson thing. That's not a

861
00:35:34,680 --> 00:35:37,880
Speaker 3: great bullpen that's not a great defense, and that's not

862
00:35:38,480 --> 00:35:41,200
Speaker 3: inconsistent run support, and he can go out and strike

863
00:35:41,239 --> 00:35:43,359
Speaker 3: out twelve guys and lose a game, and so I

864
00:35:43,560 --> 00:35:46,080
Speaker 3: without the wins like I can't legitimately. I've seen some

865
00:35:46,120 --> 00:35:48,839
Speaker 3: projections saying Green's a ten twelve game winner. I don't

866
00:35:48,840 --> 00:35:50,319
Speaker 3: see it because I don't know how the Reds are

867
00:35:50,320 --> 00:35:53,000
Speaker 3: going to get there. They're not Oakland bad, but they're

868
00:35:53,000 --> 00:35:55,160
Speaker 3: not good and it's good. There's gonna be times where

869
00:35:55,200 --> 00:35:56,840
Speaker 3: he gets pulled out of a game and that bullpen

870
00:35:56,920 --> 00:36:00,040
Speaker 3: blows that lead. So that's that's why I'm out on

871
00:36:00,160 --> 00:36:02,240
Speaker 3: Hunter Green as Kurt market price, because he is inside

872
00:36:02,280 --> 00:36:03,600
Speaker 3: the top one hundred right now.

873
00:36:03,800 --> 00:36:07,239
Speaker 2: Wels, you've got Dylan Cees, Robbie Ray Kyle right now.

874
00:36:07,280 --> 00:36:09,440
Speaker 2: You've talked a lot about Dylan ce So give everybody

875
00:36:09,480 --> 00:36:11,239
Speaker 2: the ten seconds on that, because we already know your

876
00:36:11,239 --> 00:36:11,960
Speaker 2: feelings on him.

877
00:36:12,000 --> 00:36:14,000
Speaker 1: But Robbie Ray Kyle Wright or two other guys you

878
00:36:14,040 --> 00:36:15,320
Speaker 1: think could be potential.

879
00:36:14,920 --> 00:36:18,440
Speaker 4: Bust, Why yeah, I mean Cease has just been big,

880
00:36:18,640 --> 00:36:21,360
Speaker 4: high walk rates, like the strikeout rates. I don't know

881
00:36:21,400 --> 00:36:23,239
Speaker 4: how good this team is going to be, and I

882
00:36:23,360 --> 00:36:24,719
Speaker 4: just think he's super volatile.

883
00:36:24,840 --> 00:36:26,120
Speaker 5: I just don't like the cost.

884
00:36:26,160 --> 00:36:29,160
Speaker 4: I think a lot of being Nick Pollock agreed, I

885
00:36:29,160 --> 00:36:30,880
Speaker 4: think a lot of people agree. Just the cost of

886
00:36:30,880 --> 00:36:34,040
Speaker 4: where Dylan Cees goes overall just doesn't quite add up.

887
00:36:34,040 --> 00:36:36,399
Speaker 4: And again this is there's actually a balance. It'sunny we were

888
00:36:36,360 --> 00:36:39,600
Speaker 4: talking about Strider. I keep thinking and Jacob deGrom where

889
00:36:39,600 --> 00:36:41,120
Speaker 4: it's like, how do you balance out your teams?

890
00:36:41,360 --> 00:36:43,160
Speaker 5: You know, would you almost sometimes.

891
00:36:42,920 --> 00:36:46,279
Speaker 4: Rather take these players that have, you know, this volatility,

892
00:36:46,440 --> 00:36:48,040
Speaker 4: but to be like the number one overall player and

893
00:36:48,080 --> 00:36:50,040
Speaker 4: then just take a bunch of players around them for

894
00:36:50,120 --> 00:36:53,520
Speaker 4: protection or do you want safety across the board? And

895
00:36:53,560 --> 00:36:55,960
Speaker 4: I just actually don't think Dylan Ceese qualifies as either

896
00:36:56,000 --> 00:36:58,120
Speaker 4: one of those. I don't think he's got that the highest.

897
00:36:58,160 --> 00:37:01,239
Speaker 4: I would rather Strider than Cease all day long. I

898
00:37:01,320 --> 00:37:03,719
Speaker 4: just don't like those walk rates. Robbie Ray specifically is

899
00:37:03,719 --> 00:37:06,680
Speaker 4: one that I'm just not in love with. He had

900
00:37:06,680 --> 00:37:09,000
Speaker 4: a decrease on his fastball, which was around a mile

901
00:37:09,080 --> 00:37:11,680
Speaker 4: and a half overall.

902
00:37:11,239 --> 00:37:12,920
Speaker 5: And I think it just went away for me. But

903
00:37:12,960 --> 00:37:13,880
Speaker 5: I think this was an.

904
00:37:13,760 --> 00:37:17,160
Speaker 4: Overall pitch mix that his velocity went down. Yeah, his

905
00:37:17,200 --> 00:37:20,560
Speaker 4: slider went down about a full mile and a full

906
00:37:20,600 --> 00:37:23,560
Speaker 4: mile per hour, his change up went down, his fastball

907
00:37:23,600 --> 00:37:27,800
Speaker 4: went down. I don't overall like Robbie Ray and the costs.

908
00:37:27,840 --> 00:37:30,680
Speaker 4: He's still pretty pretty heavy up there. So Robbie Ray's

909
00:37:30,719 --> 00:37:33,160
Speaker 4: just a guy that i'm strikeouts also went down, like

910
00:37:33,160 --> 00:37:35,920
Speaker 4: from eleven to ten k per nine and the three

911
00:37:35,960 --> 00:37:38,040
Speaker 4: and a half year I just think doesn't fit. So

912
00:37:38,120 --> 00:37:40,359
Speaker 4: he's just, you know, a little too crazy. And Kyle Wright,

913
00:37:41,440 --> 00:37:44,000
Speaker 4: you know, I don't. I think we're paying so much

914
00:37:44,160 --> 00:37:46,440
Speaker 4: Kyle Wright for what he did last year. And I

915
00:37:46,480 --> 00:37:48,359
Speaker 4: said this on the microcast, There's one thing I can

916
00:37:48,400 --> 00:37:51,120
Speaker 4: guarantee you Kyle Wright will not win twenty one games

917
00:37:51,120 --> 00:37:54,759
Speaker 4: this year. So what does that ultimately do his overall value?

918
00:37:54,800 --> 00:37:55,080
Speaker 5: I don't.

919
00:37:55,120 --> 00:37:57,600
Speaker 4: The strikeouts are not elite. He has great team contact.

920
00:37:57,640 --> 00:38:01,239
Speaker 4: It's actually funny because I agree with what Jason said

921
00:38:01,280 --> 00:38:03,560
Speaker 4: about Hunter Green, like I like Hunter Green stuff a lot,

922
00:38:03,600 --> 00:38:05,239
Speaker 4: and I love the k's and I like the strikeouts,

923
00:38:05,239 --> 00:38:07,520
Speaker 4: but the team in general doesn't give you a lot

924
00:38:07,520 --> 00:38:10,839
Speaker 4: of safety. Kyle Ray does have the safety because of

925
00:38:10,920 --> 00:38:12,919
Speaker 4: the braves. I mean, the guy won twenty one games.

926
00:38:12,920 --> 00:38:15,200
Speaker 4: There's a reason behind it. But you've got still a

927
00:38:15,239 --> 00:38:17,480
Speaker 4: two and a half walk per nine under nine k

928
00:38:17,600 --> 00:38:19,799
Speaker 4: per nine is not what I love, and he had

929
00:38:19,840 --> 00:38:22,120
Speaker 4: a little bit higher his expected The Ray was almost

930
00:38:22,160 --> 00:38:24,440
Speaker 4: four compared to a low three. So take all that

931
00:38:24,480 --> 00:38:27,560
Speaker 4: in consideration, I think he's gonna regress. There's no chance

932
00:38:27,560 --> 00:38:29,960
Speaker 4: that wins come remotely close, and we're paying for him

933
00:38:30,000 --> 00:38:34,000
Speaker 4: right around right around top thirty overall. Sp So, Dylan Cee,

934
00:38:34,080 --> 00:38:37,680
Speaker 4: Robbie Ray, and Kyle Raight are all my bust pitchers

935
00:38:37,680 --> 00:38:38,200
Speaker 4: for this year.

936
00:38:38,560 --> 00:38:41,000
Speaker 2: Let's close it out with the closers, then, Welsh, who

937
00:38:41,080 --> 00:38:43,360
Speaker 2: is your potential bus closer in twenty three?

938
00:38:43,640 --> 00:38:46,400
Speaker 4: Well, on the microcast, I told you, guys, Joe Barlow,

939
00:38:46,719 --> 00:38:49,600
Speaker 4: because Joe Barlow is being drafted inside the top one

940
00:38:49,680 --> 00:38:52,320
Speaker 4: fifty and uh or no Scott Barlow.

941
00:38:52,320 --> 00:38:53,160
Speaker 5: The Barlow's confused me.

942
00:38:53,160 --> 00:38:55,200
Speaker 4: I actually saw Scott Barlow today, Scott Parlow with the Kansas

943
00:38:55,200 --> 00:38:57,840
Speaker 4: City Royals, because he was going inside the top one fifty.

944
00:38:58,040 --> 00:39:00,640
Speaker 4: And I think that's silly that you're taking closers that

945
00:39:00,640 --> 00:39:03,960
Speaker 4: don't have defined roles because rold As Chapman is there,

946
00:39:04,040 --> 00:39:05,840
Speaker 4: and that there's no way that a role as Chapman

947
00:39:05,880 --> 00:39:07,440
Speaker 4: is there to just sit and be an eighth inning guy.

948
00:39:07,440 --> 00:39:09,200
Speaker 4: He had a lot of opportunity to go in other places,

949
00:39:09,719 --> 00:39:12,920
Speaker 4: so staying with it and giving a different name these

950
00:39:12,960 --> 00:39:16,200
Speaker 4: guys that are in these questionable closing spots. Clay Holmes

951
00:39:16,480 --> 00:39:19,200
Speaker 4: is somebody that is in one of the best you

952
00:39:19,239 --> 00:39:22,479
Speaker 4: know cities, New York. He's a Yankees closer. It seems great,

953
00:39:22,520 --> 00:39:25,400
Speaker 4: lots of opportunity. The team has already talked about moving

954
00:39:25,480 --> 00:39:26,920
Speaker 4: him in and out of that position.

955
00:39:27,440 --> 00:39:28,200
Speaker 5: I hate that.

956
00:39:28,480 --> 00:39:31,560
Speaker 4: I hate the idea of paying at any top high

957
00:39:31,640 --> 00:39:32,720
Speaker 4: end closer.

958
00:39:32,440 --> 00:39:34,120
Speaker 5: And he comes after like the big guys.

959
00:39:34,160 --> 00:39:35,600
Speaker 4: He's not like he's going at a crazy cost, but

960
00:39:35,640 --> 00:39:38,480
Speaker 4: he's inside the top fifteen of closers. I think you

961
00:39:38,880 --> 00:39:41,960
Speaker 4: have to reach ahead because every guy, almost every guy

962
00:39:42,000 --> 00:39:44,759
Speaker 4: after him, has really big questions unless you want a

963
00:39:44,840 --> 00:39:47,359
Speaker 4: Rockies closer and a Pirate's closer and Bednar and Burt,

964
00:39:47,360 --> 00:39:49,480
Speaker 4: and I don't think you do want bart and Bednar.

965
00:39:49,760 --> 00:39:51,880
Speaker 4: So Clay Holmes, I feel like people are like, Okay,

966
00:39:51,880 --> 00:39:54,080
Speaker 4: I can snag this guy. I just don't think. And

967
00:39:54,120 --> 00:39:55,960
Speaker 4: the Yankees have already told us that he's guaranteed to

968
00:39:55,960 --> 00:39:57,360
Speaker 4: get those spots. So I think that's going to be

969
00:39:57,400 --> 00:39:58,839
Speaker 4: a bust for a lot of people that are like, oh,

970
00:39:58,840 --> 00:40:00,960
Speaker 4: I can wait on closers, and I'll get you know,

971
00:40:01,440 --> 00:40:02,759
Speaker 4: a guy that's going to be put in a great

972
00:40:02,760 --> 00:40:05,680
Speaker 4: situation with the Yankees, Clay Homes is pretty easy for me.

973
00:40:06,520 --> 00:40:09,799
Speaker 2: Collect you've got another high profile reliever on yours as well,

974
00:40:09,840 --> 00:40:10,680
Speaker 2: it's Devin Williams.

975
00:40:10,760 --> 00:40:13,359
Speaker 3: Why yeah, I do so another point I would say, there,

976
00:40:13,400 --> 00:40:15,080
Speaker 3: why why people are kind of doing what they are

977
00:40:15,120 --> 00:40:18,000
Speaker 3: with closers. Let's not forget that there were only eleven

978
00:40:18,040 --> 00:40:20,440
Speaker 3: pitchers that had twenty five plus saves last year, So

979
00:40:20,600 --> 00:40:23,479
Speaker 3: I think that's kind of been boldened people to say, fine,

980
00:40:23,520 --> 00:40:26,520
Speaker 3: I'll punt. You know. Conversely, I saw something earlier today.

981
00:40:26,640 --> 00:40:29,480
Speaker 3: Somebody in a in a in a twelveth t o

982
00:40:29,600 --> 00:40:32,520
Speaker 3: C fifteen OC opened up with Aaron Judge, then took

983
00:40:32,719 --> 00:40:35,520
Speaker 3: Emanuel class A, Josh Hater, and Edmund dis as his

984
00:40:35,520 --> 00:40:38,799
Speaker 3: first four picks, all three, all three. So I want

985
00:40:38,840 --> 00:40:40,319
Speaker 3: to see what the rest of that build looks like.

986
00:40:40,760 --> 00:40:43,040
Speaker 3: Uh So, But I think people are more in boiler

987
00:40:43,239 --> 00:40:45,160
Speaker 3: to say, hey, I'm going to try the Tampa Bay

988
00:40:45,239 --> 00:40:47,840
Speaker 3: Rays approach and just you know, find all these stream

989
00:40:47,920 --> 00:40:49,960
Speaker 3: relievers and try to build all these saves all year

990
00:40:50,480 --> 00:40:52,480
Speaker 3: because they want to they want to take advantage of

991
00:40:52,520 --> 00:40:55,080
Speaker 3: hitting or whatever early on. But I put Devin Williams

992
00:40:55,120 --> 00:40:57,600
Speaker 3: because he's going it's fun to watch him pitch. Love

993
00:40:57,640 --> 00:41:01,080
Speaker 3: the airbender, love the strikeouts. But let's not pretend that

994
00:41:01,120 --> 00:41:03,799
Speaker 3: he's been a model of health. Uh. You know, he's

995
00:41:03,840 --> 00:41:08,719
Speaker 3: had some knee issues. That airbender requires him to severely

996
00:41:08,800 --> 00:41:11,480
Speaker 3: pronate his arm to throw that pitch. That puts him

997
00:41:11,480 --> 00:41:13,680
Speaker 3: at some risk. You know, severe pronator will be got

998
00:41:13,719 --> 00:41:17,000
Speaker 3: like Brent Honeywell, I wish that could have happened, but

999
00:41:17,040 --> 00:41:19,080
Speaker 3: it never did. But so Williams, he's.

1000
00:41:21,000 --> 00:41:21,520
Speaker 5: Still happen.

1001
00:41:21,600 --> 00:41:23,719
Speaker 3: Yeah, but that is not where you know he was.

1002
00:41:23,880 --> 00:41:25,640
Speaker 3: He was our ten staff. You know, there's no such

1003
00:41:25,680 --> 00:41:28,279
Speaker 3: thing as a pitching prospect, just a reminder trade your

1004
00:41:28,280 --> 00:41:29,960
Speaker 3: pitching prospects every time you can.

1005
00:41:30,440 --> 00:41:30,640
Speaker 1: Uh.

1006
00:41:30,719 --> 00:41:33,560
Speaker 3: But with so, that's my thing with Williams is I'm

1007
00:41:33,640 --> 00:41:35,880
Speaker 3: concerned that he can stay healthy over the course of

1008
00:41:35,880 --> 00:41:38,600
Speaker 3: a full season. If I am drafting Williams, I'm trying

1009
00:41:38,600 --> 00:41:40,600
Speaker 3: to make sure I get Matt Bush somewhere deep down

1010
00:41:40,640 --> 00:41:43,719
Speaker 3: the draft as some insurance policy with that. But Matt

1011
00:41:44,040 --> 00:41:46,400
Speaker 3: Devin Williams, I want to said, Matt Devin Williams has

1012
00:41:46,400 --> 00:41:49,640
Speaker 3: cost you to acquire the skills because the upside's definitely there,

1013
00:41:49,640 --> 00:41:51,480
Speaker 3: but the risk is there and you should look to

1014
00:41:51,520 --> 00:41:54,279
Speaker 3: mitigate the risk as well. But I'm I ended up

1015
00:41:54,320 --> 00:41:56,279
Speaker 3: with Williams in one. I think I took him to

1016
00:41:56,320 --> 00:41:59,439
Speaker 3: teach FBI as my first closer, but he definitely wasn't

1017
00:41:59,440 --> 00:41:59,880
Speaker 3: my target.

1018
00:42:01,200 --> 00:42:04,359
Speaker 2: Well, just to recap everybody's bust teams for twenty twenty three,

1019
00:42:04,440 --> 00:42:07,240
Speaker 2: the Welsh at catcher, Dalton v Oar Show, then Reese

1020
00:42:07,239 --> 00:42:10,160
Speaker 2: Hoskins at first, Labor Tours at second, Ueno Suarez at

1021
00:42:10,160 --> 00:42:14,000
Speaker 2: third base, Carls Korey at short, Luis Robert Etais Garcia,

1022
00:42:14,400 --> 00:42:17,320
Speaker 2: Cody Bellinger in the outfield, and then the rotation is Cease,

1023
00:42:17,880 --> 00:42:20,759
Speaker 2: Robbie Ray, Kyle Wright with Clay Holmes. You know, it's

1024
00:42:20,800 --> 00:42:24,000
Speaker 2: funny you look at this roster Welsh, it's pretty competitive roster.

1025
00:42:24,719 --> 00:42:26,040
Speaker 3: I mean, yeah, it's funny.

1026
00:42:26,040 --> 00:42:26,920
Speaker 5: It's so funny you said that.

1027
00:42:27,040 --> 00:42:28,040
Speaker 3: I was about to say.

1028
00:42:28,120 --> 00:42:30,640
Speaker 4: I could totally see someone doing the all fade Welsh

1029
00:42:30,719 --> 00:42:32,879
Speaker 4: team and putting this team together, and.

1030
00:42:32,640 --> 00:42:34,680
Speaker 1: I want somebody to do that. In fact, go out

1031
00:42:34,680 --> 00:42:36,520
Speaker 1: there and do it and let us know if you are.

1032
00:42:36,800 --> 00:42:38,279
Speaker 5: I mean you didn't have a first round pick if

1033
00:42:38,320 --> 00:42:39,200
Speaker 5: you did, but yeah.

1034
00:42:39,160 --> 00:42:40,840
Speaker 2: No, you didn't have a first round pick, but you know,

1035
00:42:40,920 --> 00:42:44,160
Speaker 2: it's just kind of funny. Adlie Rutchman at catcher, Nathaniel

1036
00:42:44,160 --> 00:42:47,440
Speaker 2: Lowe at first, Gestism at second, Jordan Walker third danceby

1037
00:42:47,480 --> 00:42:51,080
Speaker 2: Swanson Short, Michael Harris, Jake McCarthy and Yoshida in the outfield,

1038
00:42:51,120 --> 00:42:55,760
Speaker 2: and Spencer Strider, Bieber, Hunter Green and Devin Williams.

1039
00:42:54,880 --> 00:42:58,080
Speaker 5: Certain name I might go to war with. I'm not

1040
00:42:58,080 --> 00:42:59,359
Speaker 5: gonna lie here, I might go to war with.

1041
00:42:59,360 --> 00:43:00,920
Speaker 3: Hey. Well, the boy I tried to say is every

1042
00:43:01,000 --> 00:43:03,440
Speaker 3: year we have surprises, so everybody steps up. In order

1043
00:43:03,440 --> 00:43:05,399
Speaker 3: for somebody's up, somebody's got to step down.

1044
00:43:05,560 --> 00:43:09,120
Speaker 2: And you guys have definitely hit on some big names,

1045
00:43:09,360 --> 00:43:12,320
Speaker 2: and I think that's worth everybody paying attention to because

1046
00:43:12,920 --> 00:43:15,080
Speaker 2: just because a big name, big investment doesn't.

1047
00:43:14,840 --> 00:43:16,160
Speaker 1: Mean it's a sure thing all the time.

1048
00:43:16,239 --> 00:43:19,040
Speaker 2: So you rethink and at least understand where the guys

1049
00:43:19,040 --> 00:43:21,360
Speaker 2: are coming from a little food for thought here from

1050
00:43:21,440 --> 00:43:23,520
Speaker 2: the Welsh and Jason Collett. Follow him on the Twitter

1051
00:43:23,560 --> 00:43:25,680
Speaker 2: machine at Jason Collette. He's a great follow He does

1052
00:43:25,680 --> 00:43:27,960
Speaker 2: great stuff in the baseball world. Check out his work

1053
00:43:27,960 --> 00:43:30,200
Speaker 2: at Rodewi and Fangrafts as well. I want to think

1054
00:43:30,239 --> 00:43:32,920
Speaker 2: the sponsor of today's show, and that is Fanimal. Head

1055
00:43:33,000 --> 00:43:36,600
Speaker 2: over to fanimal dot com or download the Fnimal app

1056
00:43:36,640 --> 00:43:40,319
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1057
00:43:40,400 --> 00:43:44,239
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1058
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1059
00:43:48,880 --> 00:43:50,319
Speaker 2: That'll do it for us, But the story of the

1060
00:43:50,320 --> 00:43:52,480
Speaker 2: game goes on for Jason and Welsh.

1061
00:43:52,520 --> 00:43:57,320
Speaker 1: I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time kids.

1062
00:44:00,080 --> 00:44:04,680
Speaker 2: That the then