Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
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Speaker 4: The day after an important vote in the House to
Speaker 4: fund the government, I have two important numbers for you.
Speaker 4: The first is twelve twelve days to a possible government shutdown, Kayley.
Speaker 4: A couple more numbers, two twenty to two oh two.
Speaker 4: That was the vote last night on this six month
Speaker 4: stopgap resolution we keep the government functioning through March. Also
Speaker 4: includes the Save Act that we've talked a lot about,
Speaker 4: which many Democrats consider a poison pill. Fourteen Republicans joining
Speaker 4: all but three Democrats in opposition to Republicans vote at
Speaker 4: present and now what We're joined by the ranking member
Speaker 4: on the Budget Committee to find some answers, Brendan Boyle,
Speaker 4: of course, Democratic congressman from Pennsylvania. Stir it's great to
Speaker 4: see you. Welcome back to Bloomberg TV and Radio. There
Speaker 4: are questions about the Plan B. Now that we've had
Speaker 4: this exercise, do you expect the Speaker to present you
Speaker 4: with a clean CR, or is the Senate going to
Speaker 4: solve this for us?
Speaker 5: Well, the final resolution of this has been painfully obvious
Speaker 5: to everyone except for perhaps Speaker Johnson and House Republican leadership.
Speaker 5: The reality is we need a clean continuing resolution, a
Speaker 5: clean CR, not something that has either a Democratic or
Speaker 5: Republican poison pill. That is the only way we're going
Speaker 5: to resolve this, and the sooner Speaker Johnson realizes that
Speaker 5: the better off we will be. I am hopeful, however,
Speaker 5: that we will see that finally and that that's how
Speaker 5: we will resolve this to avoid a government shutdown. It
Speaker 5: might not be a six month CR the way the
Speaker 5: Speaker would want, but at least until the end of
Speaker 5: the year, which has been past practice many a time
Speaker 5: over the last decade.
Speaker 6: Well, so if it is just for December, leaving it
Speaker 6: to this Congress that is sitting now to sort out
Speaker 6: rather than punting it to the next one Congressman, is
Speaker 6: there anything else that should be sorted out there as well,
Speaker 6: like debt limit negotiations rather than waiting until next year.
Speaker 5: Well, as you may know from previous times I've been
Speaker 5: on with you guys, I am the author of the
Speaker 5: Debt Ceiling Reform Act. We will be back on the
Speaker 5: clock in terms of the need to raise the debt
Speaker 5: ceiling come midnight December thirty first into January first. Now,
Speaker 5: of course that won't be the actual x state. That
Speaker 5: will be some months later. And I've long believed that
Speaker 5: we need a permanent resolution of the debt ceiling. The
Speaker 5: sooner we get that done, the better, the better for markets,
Speaker 5: and the better for the American people, so that we
Speaker 5: would have the security and the knowledge that we won't,
Speaker 5: either by design or accident, end up jeopardizing the full
Speaker 5: faith and credit of the United States and bringing about
Speaker 5: when many economists left and right believe would be a
Speaker 5: worldwide recession.
Speaker 4: I want to ask you how you had described this
Speaker 4: moment we're in here economically, Congressman. The Federal Reserve began
Speaker 4: a new regime by cutting fifty basis points yesterday, more
Speaker 4: than some actually expected, a bit less than some Democratic
Speaker 4: lawmakers were calling for. But it signifies a moment at
Speaker 4: President Biden, speaking just about a half an hour ago
Speaker 4: at the Economic Club here in Washington, said it was
Speaker 4: not a moment.
Speaker 7: Of victory, but one of progress.
Speaker 4: This is something that I know that you have been
Speaker 4: working with on the administration for years here to bring
Speaker 4: down prices. Is it not time to declare victory now
Speaker 4: that the Fed is cutting.
Speaker 5: It's quite clear we are achieving the soft landing. We
Speaker 5: have increased projections now with three percent growth for this quarter,
Speaker 5: combined with inflation that is reaching the two percent target.
Speaker 5: And that's what gave the Federal what they gave the
Speaker 5: Federal Reserve and the FOMC the confidence to be able
Speaker 5: to initiate this series of rate cuts, beginning with a
Speaker 5: robust fifty basis point cut. They would not have done
Speaker 5: that had they believed that inflation was still a major concern.
Speaker 5: We've had rates too high for too long. In my view,
Speaker 5: this is the highest that they've been in some seventeen years,
Speaker 5: and I'm glad now that the Federal Reserve recognizes it's
Speaker 5: time to bring them lower. But make no mistake about it,
Speaker 5: this did not happen by accident. The record of achievement
Speaker 5: in the policies of this administration is why the United
Speaker 5: States leads the world in the recovery from the pandemic.
Speaker 6: Well, Congressman, as the cutting cycle has now begun, there's
Speaker 6: also the question of how long it might last as
Speaker 6: we move to a new presidency next year, either a
Speaker 6: Harris presidency or another Trump one. We've spoken with many
Speaker 6: economists here on Bloomberg TV and Radio who have actually
Speaker 6: suggested this easing cycle could potentially be cut short if
Speaker 6: infletionary policies are pursued by either candidate. For Donald Trump,
Speaker 6: of course, we're thinking of tariffs for lower taxes, but
Speaker 6: Kamala Harris too was talking about different subsidies lower tax
Speaker 6: rates for some individuals. Both of these people want to
Speaker 6: spend and potentially have less revenue coming in simultaneously. Congressman,
Speaker 6: so what would you say to those concerns that even
Speaker 6: if it is a Harris presidency, inflation might rear its
Speaker 6: head once again.
Speaker 8: Well, first, let's be clear.
Speaker 5: Recently, Goldman Sachs, not exactly known as a bastion of
Speaker 5: liberalism or progressivism, Goldman Sachs released reports concluding that the
Speaker 5: Harri's economic agenda would help the economy, while at the
Speaker 5: same time, the Trump tariff agenda and his overall economic
Speaker 5: policies would spike inflation and lead to a dramatic increase
Speaker 5: in the deficit and the debt. So it's quite clear
Speaker 5: that both candidates are not alike now in terms of
Speaker 5: how that would impact FED policy.
Speaker 8: I trust J.
Speaker 5: Powell and the Federal Reserve governors at their word that
Speaker 5: they will be data dependent. Hopefully come January, it'll be
Speaker 5: a continuation of policies that have brought down inflation and
Speaker 5: not this sudden tariff another word, another way of saying
Speaker 5: tax agenda that Trump wants to pursue.
Speaker 4: You must be encouraged by some of the polls that
Speaker 4: we're seeing, Congressman, and I'll just stay right in your
Speaker 4: state of Pennsylvania. Sienna and New York Times out today
Speaker 4: Harris fifty, Trump forty six in the swing state of Pennsylvania.
Speaker 4: We saw another from Quinnipiac yesterday showing Kamala Harris turning
Speaker 4: around a massive gap that Joe Biden had with Donald
Speaker 4: Trump when it came to who you trust to handle
Speaker 4: the economy, pulling even in Pennsylvania. If this is a
Speaker 4: standoff right now, how does it break out for one
Speaker 4: candidate or the other?
Speaker 7: The message in your state, Yeah.
Speaker 5: Well, first, I didn't get too down when the polls
Speaker 5: weren't looking good, and I'm not going to get I'm
Speaker 5: not going to experience a rational exuberance now that the
Speaker 5: polls are looking good on our side, an old Greenspan
Speaker 5: rightence for longtime viewers. But I do think, however, that
Speaker 5: over the next seven weeks or forty seven days, we.
Speaker 8: Will see the polls move around a little bit as
Speaker 8: they have.
Speaker 5: I always expected, and I've said this before, that this
Speaker 5: race would come down to Pennsylvania. And I think Pennsylvania
Speaker 5: will be exactly as it was in twenty sixteen, and
Speaker 5: exactly as it was in twenty twenty.
Speaker 8: Pennsylvania will be a one point race. Right now.
Speaker 5: I would rather be our side than the other side,
Speaker 5: because in the end, I think middle class Pennsylvanians will
Speaker 5: recognize there's only one candidate and campaign that's actually speaking
Speaker 5: to their concerns, while the other side, Donald Trump, is
Speaker 5: talking about god knows what, but it certainly isn't middle
Speaker 5: class economics.
Speaker 6: Well, when we consider the middle class economics, though, are
Speaker 6: some of the economic proposals that have been put forward
Speaker 6: by the vice president and by the former president, there
Speaker 6: is some degree of overlap. Congressman, I could think of
Speaker 6: no tax on tips, for example, for service workers, potentially
Speaker 6: the child tax credit as well, and I wonder, given
Speaker 6: your seat on Ways and Needs, whether or not you're
Speaker 6: the majority or still in the minority in the new Congress,
Speaker 6: if there are going to be some areas of bipartisan
Speaker 6: compromise in tax policy specifically that you think we could
Speaker 6: end up with no matter who becomes president.
Speaker 5: Well, you know, it's interesting, while Donald Trump and Jdfans
Speaker 5: talk a good game on the child tax credit, then
Speaker 5: when there's the opportunity to actually expand it and make
Speaker 5: it law, you don't see really any Republican support for
Speaker 5: that in the United States Senate. Heck jd Vance didn't
Speaker 5: even bother to show up for the vote. Now, in
Speaker 5: terms of the no taxation on tips, look, that is
Speaker 5: something that I'm very interested in. There have been a
Speaker 5: number of Democrats over the years who have talked about that.
Speaker 5: But the reality is, at the same time, Donald Trump
Speaker 5: is also talking about further cutting corporate tax rates when
Speaker 5: he was in office, contrary to what he talked about.
Speaker 5: When he was in office, his number one priority was
Speaker 5: the attempt to take away Obamacare from thirty million amarre Amerricans,
Speaker 5: and then he followed that up with his large.
Speaker 8: Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.
Speaker 5: Which ended up ballooning the debt by two trillion dollars,
Speaker 5: and as you know, eighty three percent of it went
Speaker 5: to the richest one percent.
Speaker 8: So sorry if.
Speaker 5: I don't trust Donald Trump's word when it comes to
Speaker 5: who he would be looking out for in taxation.
Speaker 4: Well, you're about to walk into a grand debate here
Speaker 4: on the expiring Trump era tax cuts. And of course
Speaker 4: I know that the former president has changed his opinion
Speaker 4: on the salt deduction, for instance, So this could take
Speaker 4: on a lot of different forms. Something that's a lot
Speaker 4: more immediate is the cost of gas energy in a
Speaker 4: state like yours. The President talked about that at the
Speaker 4: Economic Club. Congressman, I notice here, according to Triple A,
Speaker 4: the average price for a gallon of regular unleaded in
Speaker 4: Pennsylvania three dollars thirty six cents. How important is it
Speaker 4: going to be for that number to come down? And
Speaker 4: I'm asking you that as well, against the backdrop of
Speaker 4: this debate over fracking. I know Kamala Harris has changed
Speaker 4: her position on that, but it's something that of course
Speaker 4: hits very close to home in Pennsylvania. How important will
Speaker 4: that be in deciding your state?
Speaker 5: Yeah, So, first let me just say, because I can't
Speaker 5: resist on salt. I laughed out loud when I saw
Speaker 5: yesterday Donald Trump came out against his own law. Donald
Speaker 5: Trump is the reason why taxpayers in many states, including
Speaker 5: in suburban Philadelphia, no longer have the ability to fully
Speaker 5: deduct their property taxes and state and local income tax.
Speaker 5: That tax increase was because of Donald Trump. Now suddenly
Speaker 5: he's against it. I'm sure tomorrow he'll have a third
Speaker 5: position on it. But as far as gas prices, let's
Speaker 5: not forget. Gas prices today on average, are seventy cents
Speaker 5: lower at the pump than they were just a year ago.
Speaker 5: Gas prices spiked as a result of Vladimir Putin's invasion
Speaker 5: of Ukraine that began two and a half years ago. Fortunately,
Speaker 5: prices have dropped considerably since then, and today the United
Speaker 5: States of America leads the world in energy production. We
Speaker 5: literally lead the world in oil production. I think that
Speaker 5: part of the story probably hasn't gotten out the way
Speaker 5: it should. I would fully expect a President Harris to
Speaker 5: continue pursuing a balanced approach when it comes to energy,
Speaker 5: addressing our short term needs while at the same time
Speaker 5: recognizing our medium and long term needs to finally address
Speaker 5: the climate change crisis.
Speaker 6: Well, Congressman, I know we've discussed this fracking question with
Speaker 6: you before. We did so at the convention in Chicago
Speaker 6: when we saw you there and you said that politicians
Speaker 6: and leaders like Kamala Harris should be allowed some evolution
Speaker 6: on the issues. And you think she ended up in
Speaker 6: the right place with racking. She of course says that
Speaker 6: she would no longer ban it. I just wonder if
Speaker 6: you really believe that that has fully resonated in Pennsylvania
Speaker 6: or if the attacks of Donald Trump on that issue
Speaker 6: are actually breaking through.
Speaker 5: Yeah. Well, you might remember I shared with you that
Speaker 5: certainly in my career have one hundred percent in the
Speaker 5: same views today that I had when I first was
Speaker 5: elected to office. I think most human beings recognize that's natural,
Speaker 5: and that has the facts change, your conclusions may change.
Speaker 5: I would point out, though, that Kamala Harris has been
Speaker 5: Vice president for the last four years and this administration
Speaker 5: has actually increased the leases for fracking that was in
Speaker 5: the Inflation Reduction Act. Natural gas is at an all
Speaker 5: time high in terms of production in Pennsylvania in twenty
Speaker 5: twenty three.
Speaker 8: That breaks the previous record which was set in twenty
Speaker 8: twenty two.
Speaker 5: So she has a record that you can point to
Speaker 5: to say, it's not just what she's saying today, she
Speaker 5: has actually backed this up with her actions, not.
Speaker 8: Just her words.
Speaker 6: All right, Congressman, always great to have you here on
Speaker 6: Bloomberg TV and Radio. Thank you so much for joining
Speaker 6: us live from Capitol Hill on this Thursday. Congressman Brendan
Speaker 6: Boyle of the key swing state of Pennsylvania.
Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast.
Speaker 3: Can just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and
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Speaker 3: York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 4: We chart our course on this little Friday. Yes, welcome
Speaker 4: to the Thursday edition of Balance of Power. I'm Joe
Speaker 4: Matthew in Washington with much going on today. Joe Biden
Speaker 4: is talking to the Economic Club of Washington a little
Speaker 4: over an hour from now.
Speaker 7: We'll get there. We'll bring an ear.
Speaker 4: On that speech and walk you into the room to
Speaker 4: see if we hear any news as we follow the
Speaker 4: candidates themselves. Donald Trump resting up after a big night
Speaker 4: long Island with a big night in the coliseum, and
Speaker 4: Kamala Harris today heading from Michigan back to the swing
Speaker 4: state of Michigan, the state that may well decide this
Speaker 4: election on the issue that is expected to decide this election,
Speaker 4: that's the economy. And so reach under your seat, right now,
Speaker 4: reach under your seat.
Speaker 7: Make sure there isn't a free car under there. Yes,
Speaker 7: she's appearing with OPRAH.
Speaker 4: I make not reference, of course to the many tax
Speaker 4: exemptions that we've heard from both campaigns, But no, OPRAH
Speaker 4: is going to be holding forth and what's described as
Speaker 4: a virtual campaign event with Kamala Harris, and they are
Speaker 4: doing it not by accident from Michigan. That'll happen tonight
Speaker 4: eight forty five pm, I believe, do I have that right?
Speaker 4: We'll get that for you in just a second, eight pm.
Speaker 4: Forgive me the virtual event with OPRAH. And yes, that's right.
Speaker 2: CC.
Speaker 4: You get a vote, and you get a vote. I
Speaker 4: mention all of this on a day that we get
Speaker 4: a lot of new polling here. And this is interesting
Speaker 4: because it comes after the Quinnipiac poll yesterday that showed
Speaker 4: Kamala Harris catching up to, if not passing, Donald Trump
Speaker 4: in what was really a statistical tie in the three
Speaker 4: swing states that matter Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin. Here we go,
Speaker 4: New York Times, Siena, Pennsylvania. Kamala Harris fifty Trump forty six.
Speaker 4: Marised out with new statewide polls on those three, Harris
Speaker 4: leading Trump in Michigan fifty two to forty seven, in Wisconsin,
Speaker 4: fifty to forty nine. In Pennsylvania, they're tied at forty
Speaker 4: nine within the margin here certainly, And I want to
Speaker 4: add one more from Morning consult forty six percent of voters,
Speaker 4: this might be the most important number that we hear
Speaker 4: today say they trust Kamala Harris to handle the economy
Speaker 4: the same share as Trump. That number was forty one
Speaker 4: percent when Joe Biden was in the race. And yeah,
Speaker 4: I'll add one more log to the fire. Financial Times,
Speaker 4: University of Michigan Raw School, Harris a slight edge over
Speaker 4: Trump when it comes to the economy. Now, remember we're
Speaker 4: coming off the FED meeting yesterday. The wealth effect, the
Speaker 4: psychological effect of this market rally. You put this all together,
Speaker 4: and I can't wait to see what the Bloomberg swing
Speaker 4: state pole says, because we're in the field right now.
Speaker 4: On this one, not just post debate, but post fed
Speaker 4: and for our audience here at Bloomberg that is of
Speaker 4: course extremely important now as we consider where we are
Speaker 4: here in the Grand Scheme, a conversation that we had
Speaker 4: promised you on Balance of Power live from Washington, with
Speaker 4: an eye of course, on Michigan. Nancy Kaffer is the
Speaker 4: editorial page editor at the Detroit Free Press and back
Speaker 4: with us on the program. Nancy, it's great to see you.
Speaker 4: Sorry for the shower of numbers, but we live for
Speaker 4: this stuff. And when it comes to the economy, we
Speaker 4: have seen a pretty remarkable turn, and I wonder if
Speaker 4: you're feeling that on the ground or hearing that from
Speaker 4: people in the swing state of Michigan.
Speaker 1: There's just, you know, instantly when the ticket switched, there
Speaker 1: was a huge surge of excitement around Harris's candidacy that
Speaker 1: just hadn't been there for Biden. And the question, of
Speaker 1: course was would she be able to sustain it and
Speaker 1: build on that over from the time in July till
Speaker 1: the election. The big advantage here is that it's a
Speaker 1: pretty short amount of time to kind of keep something going.
Speaker 1: But we're starting to see some movement in the polls.
Speaker 1: I would say that after twenty sixteen, I kind of
Speaker 1: got out of the business of making predictions about what's
Speaker 1: going to happen here. And if anyone tells you they know,
Speaker 1: don't believe anything they say. It is going to be
Speaker 1: close here. But the polls are definitely Our last poll
Speaker 1: prior to the debate had her up by one point,
Speaker 1: which is a big shift from I think our last
Speaker 1: poll with Biden on the ticket had had him down
Speaker 1: by an astounding thirteen points. So we're starting to see
Speaker 1: some movement. You mentioned some of those polls that show
Speaker 1: are with a substantial like lead outside the margin of error.
Speaker 1: Either you know you know this, you know this game
Speaker 1: better than I do. She's either we're going to start
Speaker 1: to see more polls showing that result, or we'll find
Speaker 1: out those polls were outliers. But we're going to learn
Speaker 1: a lot. We've got a very short amount of time here.
Speaker 7: We do. It's a short window.
Speaker 4: But I have to admit we're starting to find some
Speaker 4: continuity in these polls here, at least in terms of direction.
Speaker 7: I think we can both admit here.
Speaker 4: But I want to know more about what's happening in
Speaker 4: Michigan because there were pockets of the of the progressive
Speaker 4: Democratic base very upset with Joe Biden a lot to
Speaker 4: do with Israel. I don't know if Arab American voters
Speaker 4: in Michigan have changed.
Speaker 7: Their tune on this, but this is a big deal for.
Speaker 4: Democrats right now, particularly as we see Israel potentially open
Speaker 4: a new front to the north with Hesbela. We're going
Speaker 4: to talk more about that later on this hour. But
Speaker 4: there was a real protest vote in Michigan, Nancy, what
Speaker 4: about now?
Speaker 1: So there was, and I think it's important to understand
Speaker 1: that the Arab American vote was only a portion of that.
Speaker 1: There was a large portion of uncommitted There one hundred
Speaker 1: thousand uncommitted votes in Michigan and the presidential primary, which
Speaker 1: doesn't sound like a lot of votes until you remember
Speaker 1: that Trump won the state by about eleven thousand votes
Speaker 1: in twenty sixteen and Biden won by about one hundred
Speaker 1: and fifty thousand votes in twenty twenty. So one hundred
Speaker 1: thousand votes, well, it might not be a significant percentage.
Speaker 1: I'm a lot more interested in raw numbers right now,
Speaker 1: given the last two cycles. So we saw that uncommitted vote,
Speaker 1: not just in Wayne County, where the Arab American population
Speaker 1: is centered, or in Oakland County where there's still a
Speaker 1: significant population but smaller. We saw it in Washington Our
Speaker 1: County where University of Michigan is so there's a big
Speaker 1: college community there. We saw it in counties actually across
Speaker 1: the state where there isn't a significant Ab American population
Speaker 1: and where there isn't like a large progressive campus population.
Speaker 1: So that is that is fascinating to me, and I
Speaker 1: think there's a lot of tension and indecision in the
Speaker 1: community about what the best thing to do this fall is.
Speaker 1: In the Arab American community specifically, there's no one I've
Speaker 1: talked to really believes that Trump is going to be
Speaker 1: better on Gaza. This is what the folks are concerned about,
Speaker 1: is a humanitarian crisis in Gaza and civilian deaths. I
Speaker 1: don't think anyone thinks Trump is going to be better
Speaker 1: on that. But there's a there's a hard stop for
Speaker 1: people who feel that Harris has been complicit in an
Speaker 1: administration that hasn't done anything to stop or put conditions
Speaker 1: on the use of arms set or with kind of
Speaker 1: late calling for a ceasefire, and for some folks it's
Speaker 1: just kind of a moral hurdle that they're struggling to
Speaker 1: get past. And I think there's a lot of real,
Speaker 1: genuine conflict and angst in that community, and I don't
Speaker 1: know how that's going to sort out.
Speaker 7: Well.
Speaker 4: That's a very thoughtful answer, which makes me think that
Speaker 4: this is still a very real story here. I wonder
Speaker 4: if it's something that Kamala Harris talks about in her
Speaker 4: virtual event later, because yes, Oprah is coming to town,
Speaker 4: and I'm curious about the Oprah effect if there is one.
Speaker 4: Nancy will remember the impact that she had on Barack
Speaker 4: Obama's campaign. But there's new pulling out for Monmouth University,
Speaker 4: and I'm guessing no one's going to stop down to
Speaker 4: talk about this today other than yours. Truly, Just over
Speaker 4: half of American voters fifty three percent approof of Taylor
Speaker 4: Swift getting involved in this campaign and encouraging her fans
Speaker 4: to vote in the upcoming election. That means a lot
Speaker 4: of Americans don't know. We're seeing a pretty steady decline
Speaker 4: among independent and Republican and not a surprise voters in
Speaker 4: their impression of Taylor Swift encouraging her fans to vote.
Speaker 7: Does Oprah help in Michigan.
Speaker 1: So yeah, Oprah's very popular. You might have heard that.
Speaker 8: You know. The thing.
Speaker 1: The thing is, when you look at where these candidates
Speaker 1: are coming, right, You've got Harrison Walls have typically been
Speaker 1: coming to Metro Detroit Detroit area, which is which is
Speaker 1: a huge the democratic stronghold. When County is one of
Speaker 1: the most democratic counties in America, Oakland County has become
Speaker 1: has become much more democratic. It used to be a
Speaker 1: Republican stronghold. For those of your listeners who don't have
Speaker 1: an encyclopedic knowledge of Michigan counties, it's a more affluent,
Speaker 1: more educated county. It's been trending blue Washington County where
Speaker 1: ann Arbor in the University of Michigan are obviously much
Speaker 1: more democratic and progressive. So they have been concentrating the
Speaker 1: Democrats have been concentrating their retation in this area. The
Speaker 1: Republicans have been coming to more rural, more outstate places.
Speaker 1: So these guys know where their votes are, right and
Speaker 1: there's roughly Michigan is roughly split. And this is a
Speaker 1: turnout game. This is who can get people out to
Speaker 1: the polls. And I think you see that in what
Speaker 1: they're doing and where they're coming. And so Detroit is
Speaker 1: a very democratic city, like ninety eight percent Democrat, we
Speaker 1: tend to have lower voter turnout in the city of
Speaker 1: Detroit proper. There's a lot of black voters in this
Speaker 1: eighty percent black. It's it's a it's a it's a
Speaker 1: city where turnout has lagged, and activating Detroit voters, getting
Speaker 1: them to have an incentive to go out to the
Speaker 1: polls is a big objective for a Democratic campaign that
Speaker 1: wants to win statewide. So I think that that's you know,
Speaker 1: this Oprah play, which is by the way, not open
Speaker 1: to the public or I'm not even sure if it's
Speaker 1: open to media. It is it is I think clearly
Speaker 1: intentionally aimed at black voters in Detroit, and there is
Speaker 1: a sizeable A lot of people don't realize that there's
Speaker 1: a sizeable population of as there's been a you know,
Speaker 1: over the last Detroit's population decline is probably something some
Speaker 1: of your listeners, most of your listeners have heard something
Speaker 1: about over the years. But a lot of black Detroiters
Speaker 1: have moved out to suburbs, and so there are a
Speaker 1: lot of suburbs that are not the majority of blacks, and
Speaker 1: we also talk about the black voter Michigan. It's not
Speaker 1: just Detroit. There's a broader swap. And I think that
Speaker 1: you know, this is a very this is a very
Speaker 1: intentional positioning in where this campaign is coming and who
Speaker 1: they're reaching out to, because they know who they need
Speaker 1: to turn out. And I think that the Trump Vance
Speaker 1: campaign is doing the same thing. They've got to excite
Speaker 1: those more rural, more exurban voters in historically red counties.
Speaker 7: With the view from Michigan.
Speaker 4: We're spending time with Nancy Kaffer at the Detroit Free
Speaker 4: Press as part of our conversation today on Balance of Power.
Speaker 4: Just about a minute from now, we're going to be
Speaker 4: going to an important interview that Bloomberg's Lisa Abramowitz will
Speaker 4: bring us with the CEO of Jet Blue. So Nancy,
Speaker 4: in our remaining moment, I just wonder your thoughts, if
Speaker 4: we can be somewhat brief here on the impact of
Speaker 4: the teamster's decision to not endorse, knowing that rank and
Speaker 4: fire or leaning toward Trump, how does that impact, for instance,
Speaker 4: auto workers who have endorsed in this campaign in Michigan.
Speaker 1: I think there's been a disconnect between leadership and the
Speaker 1: rank and file for a while now, I think the
Speaker 1: leadership has been more historically aligned with Democrats. I think
Speaker 1: the rank and file has been turning, you know, towards
Speaker 1: specifically toward Trump. I think this is probably, you know,
Speaker 1: just further evidence of that. I think that it's going
Speaker 1: to be interesting to see how it plays out a
Speaker 1: lot of times we're sort of getting primary source information
Speaker 1: as events play out in real time. You know, the
Speaker 1: old thing that journalism is the first draft of history.
Speaker 1: So I kind of I hope we can talk about
Speaker 1: this after the election when we see how it's uh,
Speaker 1: we see how these votes are shaken out.
Speaker 7: Well, we will talk about it after the election. I
Speaker 7: like to stay in touch with you until the election.
Speaker 7: Nancy is great to have you back.
Speaker 4: Nancy Kaffer runs the editorial page editor at the Detroit
Speaker 4: Free Press.
Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch
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Speaker 4: Thanks for coming along. It's Balance of Power. You made
Speaker 4: it to Thursday out. You're almost there. It's Oprah night
Speaker 4: tonight on the campaign trail, Kamala Harris holding a virtual
Speaker 4: event yes with Oprah, who of course spoke at the
Speaker 4: Democratic National Convention in Chicago this day after Donald Trump
Speaker 4: went swinging in New York, appearing at the Coliseum there Uniondale.
Speaker 4: Remember we talked about this even though New York has
Speaker 4: not gone to a Republican for many, many years, and
Speaker 4: most analysts don't see that happening again, which raises questions
Speaker 4: about some of the travel decisions that are being made
Speaker 4: in this campaign. Of course, Trump was in Flint, Michigan
Speaker 4: two days ago, and we have new numbers on the
Speaker 4: swing states Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin yesterday, Quinnipiac today it's Marist
Speaker 4: and Kamala Harris is either tied with or leading Donald
Speaker 4: Trump in all three. These are the three states that
Speaker 4: make up the blue Wall. Of course, Okay, Michigan Harris
Speaker 4: fifty two, Trump forty seven, Wisconsin Harris with a one
Speaker 4: point lead. They're tied in Pennsylvania. New York Times Sienna
Speaker 4: brings forth Pennsylvania specifically, a lot of people think this
Speaker 4: is the state that decides the election. Harris fifty Trump
Speaker 4: forty six and as I mentioned, we're hearing more about
Speaker 4: Kamala Harris and the level at which voters trust her
Speaker 4: with the economy. She's pulled even with Donald Trump in
Speaker 4: the Morning Consult pull forty six percent, and she's leading
Speaker 4: Donald Trump by a bit in the latest You Miss
Speaker 4: Ross School pull. So this is a very important moment
Speaker 4: in the campaign where a day after the Fed everyone
Speaker 4: knows interest rates are coming down, stock market going up,
Speaker 4: and the potential wealth effect that that could have if
Speaker 4: only psychologically. Of course, that is the idea behind the
Speaker 4: wealth effect. See how our panel feels about it today.
Speaker 4: We've got a lot to talk about with It's Camuso Miller,
Speaker 4: the former RNC Communications director, is with us, host of
Speaker 4: the Friday Reporter podcast, joined by Adam Hodge, Managing director,
Speaker 4: Bully Pulpit, international democratic strategist and former economic advisor for
Speaker 4: President Biden.
Speaker 7: Great to see both of you here. Welcome.
Speaker 4: I'm looking forward to this conversation. As Yes producer James
Speaker 4: calls us the balance of polls today, We've got a
Speaker 4: lot of data and I apologize for all the numbers,
Speaker 4: but they create a mosaic Adam that would show Kamala
Speaker 4: Harris catching up with Donald Trump on the issue that
Speaker 4: will decide this election. They're basically tied on the economy.
Speaker 4: And when you look at the very small number of
Speaker 4: voters that they're fighting over here, this race is locked
Speaker 4: and it really could not be a lot closer. And
Speaker 4: the polls where she's leading Trump, it's basically within the
Speaker 4: statistical margin of error, Adam, So, how do you decipher
Speaker 4: these polls?
Speaker 7: I think one with a little bit of caution.
Speaker 9: These are a snapshot in time, right so, well, we
Speaker 9: know this is how voters in some of these states
Speaker 9: think right now. I know from talking to the campaign
Speaker 9: they're keeping their head down on the ground and so
Speaker 9: they're focused. In Pennsylvania, for example, great that there's a
Speaker 9: poll that shows her up for they know they got
Speaker 9: fifty offices that are open, and they got hundreds of volunteers,
Speaker 9: and they got to get them out on the doors,
Speaker 9: knock it and try to get people to commit to vote.
Speaker 9: Early voting is just a few weeks away, and so
Speaker 9: they know that they're trying to get people energized and
Speaker 9: thus to get ready and go out. I think that
Speaker 9: is where I from talking to the campaign, where their
Speaker 9: focus is. I think on the numbers in the economy, though,
Speaker 9: it speaks to you know, she's been laying at more
Speaker 9: details and policy, and from people who watched the debate,
Speaker 9: that was one of the key numbers that jumped out
Speaker 9: to me in some of the latest polls, both the
Speaker 9: ft Pole and the other ones that we've mentioned. People
Speaker 9: who watched the debate, they heard her talk about her
Speaker 9: plans for the economy and they seem to be responding
Speaker 9: to it. And so the campaign certainly has got to
Speaker 9: be happy about that, but they know they got to
Speaker 9: do the work on the ground.
Speaker 4: What's your take on this, And if you're Donald Trump,
Speaker 4: do you have to worry about the one issue that
Speaker 4: you really seem to own that was who do you
Speaker 4: trust to handle the economy? Who do you trust to
Speaker 4: handle interest rates? Or is this kind of a brief
Speaker 4: feeling of euphoria after the Fed finally started.
Speaker 10: Cutting Well, I certainly think that. I think Adam's probably right.
Speaker 10: Both sides of this campaign have got to very well
Speaker 10: be very cautious about getting excited because there's still a
Speaker 10: little ways to go. Joe, so yes, I think economic
Speaker 10: news moving in the right direction under Kamala Harris and
Speaker 10: Joe Biden's administration, I think does work in their favor.
Speaker 10: Donald Trump still will always be the candidate that voters
Speaker 10: see as the one that they feel more confident as
Speaker 10: it relates to the economy, for better or for worse.
Speaker 10: I'm not so sure that the data proves that out,
Speaker 10: but that's sort of the way the voters have been feeling.
Speaker 10: Also to Joe, a lot can happen between now and then,
Speaker 10: and so I think the other question becomes how much
Speaker 10: of an impact does the fact that the Congress didn't
Speaker 10: get a continuing resolution done yesterday impact some of those
Speaker 10: polling numbers. There's so many other factors that really play
Speaker 10: here that I think we have to keep an eye
Speaker 10: on it. But certainly for the Harris campaign, they should
Speaker 10: be feeling very confident knowing that their messaging is hitting
Speaker 10: and it's working, and the Trump campaign has a lot
Speaker 10: of work to do in order to maintain that foothold
Speaker 10: that they had before this week.
Speaker 4: You know, we're going to be hearing from Kamala Harris,
Speaker 4: as I mentioned later today, with Oprah Adam, I don't
Speaker 4: know if they're going to get to these types of issues,
Speaker 4: but what's the Oprah effect in the States that we're
Speaker 4: talking about. You go to Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and talk
Speaker 4: about one of the most famous celebrities in the world here.
Speaker 4: And what she brings to the race is is it quantifiable?
Speaker 9: I think it's eyeballs and it gets people to pay
Speaker 9: attention and hear Harris's name. And if it's another day
Speaker 9: where she wins the news cycle, where she can talking
Speaker 9: about her ideas and her visions, that's a win. And
Speaker 9: so that's where I think you can you can see
Speaker 9: her kind of leverage this moment. But I'm structure also
Speaker 9: by what you talked about kind of in your lead
Speaker 9: as well. You know, Trump campaigning in Long Island not
Speaker 9: exactly about presidential battleground, but you saw last week Harris
Speaker 9: went out to you Johnstown and Wilkes Bar in Pennsylvania,
Speaker 9: not traditional Democratic strongholds in a but in a true
Speaker 9: swing state, trying to ramp up her margin or shrink
Speaker 9: the deficit that she will have with Trump in some
Speaker 9: of those areas. That's just a key strategy for the campaign.
Speaker 9: Something he saw them do in Georgia that right, They
Speaker 9: did that tour after the debate where they went to
Speaker 9: Savannah in southeast Southwest Georgia trying to It's all about margins,
Speaker 9: and if you can hold down the margins in some
Speaker 9: of these key areas by talking about your plans, you're
Speaker 9: more likely to be successful on election Day.
Speaker 7: Why is Donald Trump in New York?
Speaker 4: Lisa A lot has been talked about his sort of
Speaker 4: desire to win the state despite the history. He says
Speaker 4: he's serious about winning New York City, which has voted
Speaker 4: Democratic in every presidential election since nineteen eighty four.
Speaker 7: Is that time well spent?
Speaker 11: Well?
Speaker 10: I mean, it's certainly in the biggest media market in
Speaker 10: the country, right, so it's going to continue to get
Speaker 10: to draw a lot of eyeballs and a lot of
Speaker 10: people paying attention for Donald Trump. That's his home city.
Speaker 10: So he's hoping that that works out in his favor
Speaker 10: and then he makes history that way. And the other
Speaker 10: thing too, to Adam's point, is that this race, the
Speaker 10: one thing these polls show us, Joe, is this race
Speaker 10: is raiz or of thin that people are really still
Speaker 10: going to come down to how many people turn out
Speaker 10: and who's going to be in the ballot box. And
Speaker 10: so if you're Donald Trump, you're thinking I'm in the
Speaker 10: biggest media mark in the country. I'm making as much
Speaker 10: news as I possibly can, and I'm giving myself an
Speaker 10: opportunity to maybe win a city that ordinarily Republicans don't
Speaker 10: necessarily carry. So for him, perhaps that's the calculus that's
Speaker 10: going on in his mind.
Speaker 4: You know, he revived the claims of Haitian immigrants eating
Speaker 4: pets in Springfield last night. I bring this up, Adam,
Speaker 4: not to be labor this day after day, but the
Speaker 4: presidential candidate is bringing it up to talk about it,
Speaker 4: and he says he's going to visit both Springfield, Ohio
Speaker 4: and Aurora, Colorado in the next two weeks. There's been
Speaker 4: a lot of reporting on this. Wall Street Journal's got
Speaker 4: another dive on this today, making it pretty clear that
Speaker 4: the campaign very well knew that these claims were false.
Speaker 4: They actually reached out to the city government in Springfield
Speaker 4: on September ninth, before Donald Trump said it on the
Speaker 4: debate stage on September tenth.
Speaker 7: Does Kamala Harris respond to any of this, I.
Speaker 9: Think she does by highlighting that this is just more
Speaker 9: of the same old chaos and division that you saw
Speaker 9: from Trump in his presidency. I pull after poll shows
Speaker 9: that's what the voters are tuned off by the most.
Speaker 9: You know, it's not that whether he's weird or whether
Speaker 9: he's you know, doing other crazy things, although talking about
Speaker 9: people eating cats and dogs is a little bit weird,
Speaker 9: but it's more about this point, about the chaos and division.
Speaker 7: And it could not be any.
Speaker 9: More clear when you have the mayor of Springfield, the
Speaker 9: governor of Ohio saying like this is a bunch of nonsense.
Speaker 9: We really don't want you coming and distracting our community.
Speaker 9: It's tearing our schools apart. You saw actually one of
Speaker 9: her most powerful answers in that interview with the National
Speaker 9: Black Journalists this week, talking about the kids going to
Speaker 9: school for the school class picture, and it all got
Speaker 9: canceled because there was a you know, there are bomb
Speaker 9: threats in the town. That's the type of chast and
Speaker 9: division the American people, quite frankly, they just cannot don't
Speaker 9: have any patients for and don't want it any part
Speaker 9: of at least.
Speaker 4: I don't know if you heard the chant last night
Speaker 4: inside the coliseum, save the cats. Remember lock her up?
Speaker 4: Now we're doing save the cats. What's that doing for
Speaker 4: the message on the economy For a campaign that was leading.
Speaker 10: On that front, I mean, Joe, to me, this is
Speaker 10: just another silly gimmick that does definitely keep people paying
Speaker 10: closer attention to what Donald Trump will say next. And
Speaker 10: so whether or not that there is genius in that
Speaker 10: tactic or if that is just plain bizarre to all
Speaker 10: of us that are digesting it every day, I'm not
Speaker 10: so sure. But the one thing I will say is
Speaker 10: that Donald Trump continues to be followed and paid attention
Speaker 10: to by those who love him and those who hate him,
Speaker 10: and that continues to keep the spotlight on him, regardless
Speaker 10: of how ridiculous this theme is that he's talking about.
Speaker 4: Well, I'll tell you what, if he decides to visit
Speaker 4: either of those towns, that's going to be quite a splash. Adam,
Speaker 4: considered the logistics you worked in the White House. The
Speaker 4: type of security that Donald Trump now has is on
Speaker 4: the level of a sitting president. He's got the full compliment.
Speaker 4: What would it mean to roll into Springfield after all
Speaker 4: these bomb threats with the full Secret Service entourage.
Speaker 9: He's a huge upheaval whenever one of these candidates travels.
Speaker 9: And I think I again, that's why it struck me
Speaker 9: that the Republican governor of Ohio, and you know, the
Speaker 9: city manager, the mayor of Springfield have just asked them
Speaker 9: just to stop it, to tone it down, and it's
Speaker 9: not true. It's tearing apart in the fabric of the
Speaker 9: city and even you know, some of the underlying issues
Speaker 9: were the frustration in the town of Springfield around the
Speaker 9: immigrant increase of immigrant population.
Speaker 7: In the town.
Speaker 9: You know, I've struck by some of the family members
Speaker 9: who actually were most affected by calling this out and
Speaker 9: saying it's just it's tearing apart our community and we
Speaker 9: just shouldn't stand for it. So I think it has
Speaker 9: a risk of backfiring. I think the Harris campaign, certainly
Speaker 9: it is talking about how President Trump wants to divide
Speaker 9: us and that she's the new way forward of trying
Speaker 9: to bring people together. It plays into her hands in
Speaker 9: many ways, but I think she's got to stay focused
Speaker 9: also on what her economic vision is for the country,
Speaker 9: and that's where where I think you'll see her talk
Speaker 9: about in the in the event with Oprah's Night and
Speaker 9: over the next forty six days.
Speaker 4: We're going to be listening, of course to that event,
Speaker 4: as we do both candidates when they're in the field.
Speaker 4: It's eight pm. I believe Eastern time, Hope, Brah. This
Speaker 4: is virtual though, you know I'm a crowd for this,
Speaker 4: so I'm not sure how that's going to go.
Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast Ken
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Speaker 6: We want to get some more expert analysis on this now,
Speaker 6: and we turn to Jennifer Kavanaugh, who is Senior Fellow
Speaker 6: and Director of Military Analysis at Defense Priorities. Welcome back
Speaker 6: to Bloomberg TV and Radio. Jennifer. I'd love to begin
Speaker 6: with you in the point that Dan was just alluding
Speaker 6: to the question here, frankly, of Israel's capacity to fight
Speaker 6: a war on multiple fronts. If this is where it goes,
Speaker 6: If Hesbola is the better armed and better prepared advert Sari,
Speaker 6: perhaps more so than Hamas, with which they've been fighting
Speaker 6: now for nearly a full year, is Israel really ready
Speaker 6: for this or does it want to avoid it?
Speaker 11: Well, a wider war isn't in anyone's interests, including Israel's.
Speaker 11: Hesbela has one hundred and fifty thousand ballistic missiles, not
Speaker 11: bolistic missiles, excuse me, one hundred thy thousand missiles, including
Speaker 11: ballistic missiles that can strike major Israeli cities. So the
Speaker 11: threat from Hesbela is significantly greater than the threat from Hamas,
Speaker 11: and the casualties would be much higher. If you remember,
Speaker 11: Israel bought a war against Hesbela in two thousand and six,
Speaker 11: and it did not go well for Israel, although they
Speaker 11: did end up of victorious in the end, or victorious
Speaker 11: as as victorious as they could be. So it's definitely
Speaker 11: not in Israel's interests. It's not clear that they would
Speaker 11: necessarily achieve their objectives. It's also not in Hesbela's interests
Speaker 11: to have a wider war, which could potentially put some
Speaker 11: restraint on any retaliation that they might have.
Speaker 4: Well, you mentioned the ballistic missiles here, and that's quite
Speaker 4: a bit all on its own, Jennifer, how do you
Speaker 4: contrast Hesbelah as a fighting force and the type of
Speaker 4: strategy that the IDF would have to employ very different
Speaker 4: than going after Hamas and Gaza.
Speaker 11: Absolutely it would be I mean, the first real challenge
Speaker 11: I think would be coming from the air because they
Speaker 11: have such a large missile arsenal as well as these
Speaker 11: ballistic missiles, they can saturate Israeli air defense and that
Speaker 11: will allow them to get some missiles through. So that's
Speaker 11: the first real challenge. The second is that hesbel has
Speaker 11: a much bigger group, a much better armed group just
Speaker 11: in terms of other types of weapons that they have
Speaker 11: on the ground. So any type of ground incursion would
Speaker 11: also be much much more difficult, and you have to
Speaker 11: believe that the HESBELA fighters have built fortifications and booby
Speaker 11: traps and other types of challenges that Israeli soldiers that
Speaker 11: would face were they to go, were they to launch
Speaker 11: a larger ground invasion, So I think what's more likely
Speaker 11: is that you might see smaller raids. I think the
Speaker 11: main goal of what we've seen in Israel and Lebanon
Speaker 11: over the past couple of days has been to really
Speaker 11: put pressure on HESBLA and to show not necessarily that
Speaker 11: they're planning a large ground invasion, but that this will
Speaker 11: be the focus of Israel's political and military pressure to
Speaker 11: try to get some sort of buffer and force the
Speaker 11: issue to be able to move the Israeli's back into
Speaker 11: their homes in the North.
Speaker 6: Well, of course, Hesbela and Hesbela's chief in a news
Speaker 6: conference today essentially said that Israel won't be able to
Speaker 6: do that until the war in Gaza ends. That the
Speaker 6: attacks on Israel will not stop until the war in
Speaker 6: Gaza stops. Jennifer, are we any closer to that actually
Speaker 6: becoming reality? What does this do to the conversations around
Speaker 6: a ceasefire?
Speaker 11: I mean, I think honestly it makes it less likely
Speaker 11: because I'm just really not sure, and I think many
Speaker 11: other analysts share this view that it's just not clear
Speaker 11: what Hamas gains from a ceasefire. At this point, most
Speaker 11: of the infrastructure in Gaza has now been destroyed. It's
Speaker 11: not clear that that that Hamas is suffering any more
Speaker 11: major costs. They have survived and they probably will survive,
Speaker 11: so there's no real incentive for them at this point
Speaker 11: to have any sort of ceasefire. I think the other
Speaker 11: challenge that Israel faces and moving citizens back into the
Speaker 11: North is just this idea of safety. If you're an
Speaker 11: Israeli citizen, are you even if the war in Gaza ends,
Speaker 11: do you feel safe going back until there's some sort
Speaker 11: of resolution to the challenge that it faced from Hezbolah.
Speaker 11: And I think that's why you see the Israeli government
Speaker 11: really pushing this military solution or military action, is that
Speaker 11: there has to be some event or change on the
Speaker 11: northern front that gives is Israeli the confidence that they'll
Speaker 11: be safe if they were to return.
Speaker 4: Axios Jennifer is reporting that Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin
Speaker 4: is postponing his trip to Israel planned for early next
Speaker 4: week because of the escalation on Israel's border with Lebanon.
Speaker 4: What's the US posture here? We had two very rare
Speaker 4: moved I have two carrier strike groups in the region
Speaker 4: as Israel was bracing for a retaliation that never arrived,
Speaker 4: the second one from Iran.
Speaker 7: How about now, Well.
Speaker 11: The United States has made it clear from the start
Speaker 11: that it supports Israel's right to defend itself and that
Speaker 11: it would, you know, help Israel defend itself were there
Speaker 11: to be an attack, especially from Iran. It's not clear
Speaker 11: how they would necessarily respond to attack from Hasbal. I
Speaker 11: think if Israel was facing an attack from ballistic missiles,
Speaker 11: they might again as they did in April, intervene with
Speaker 11: some air defense support, but I think that would be
Speaker 11: the limit of it. So I'm not sure that necessarily
Speaker 11: much changes from the US perspective. I think the urgency
Speaker 11: in the Pentagon and in the White House to try
Speaker 11: to avoid any sort of retaliation from either side is
Speaker 11: very high right now. The question is you know whether
Speaker 11: or not that can hold. I think Hesbala has really
Speaker 11: very little incentive to ask late. They may want to retaliate,
Speaker 11: but a larger war would be very damaging to the
Speaker 11: Lebanese population broadly and could damage their political support. I
Speaker 11: think the bigger question mark is what Israel does, and
Speaker 11: we've seen since the start, since October seventh, that the
Speaker 11: United States has very little influence over the Israeli political
Speaker 11: and military decision making, So I think that's the wildcard here.
Speaker 8: All right.
Speaker 6: Jennifer Kavanaugh from Defense Priorities, thank you so much with
Speaker 6: the latest analysis from the Middle East, And of course, Joe,
Speaker 6: you and I were having a conversation yesterday with someone
Speaker 6: who used to work for both the National Security Council
Speaker 6: and the National Economic Council at the White House, Jennifer Harris,
Speaker 6: and we talked to her on the heels of a
Speaker 6: FED rape about inflationary risks that still may be present,
Speaker 6: and part of what she spoke about was the inflationary
Speaker 6: risk that could be emanating from the Middle East if
Speaker 6: you do see an escalation of conflict and potentially a
Speaker 6: disruption to energy flows as a result.
Speaker 4: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make
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