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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast.

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Speaker 3: Catch Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apocarplay and

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Speaker 3: then roud Otto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on

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Speaker 3: demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live

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Speaker 3: on YouTube.

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Speaker 4: The day after an important vote in the House to

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Speaker 4: fund the government, I have two important numbers for you.

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Speaker 4: The first is twelve twelve days to a possible government shutdown, Kayley.

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Speaker 4: A couple more numbers, two twenty to two oh two.

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Speaker 4: That was the vote last night on this six month

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Speaker 4: stopgap resolution we keep the government functioning through March. Also

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Speaker 4: includes the Save Act that we've talked a lot about,

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Speaker 4: which many Democrats consider a poison pill. Fourteen Republicans joining

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Speaker 4: all but three Democrats in opposition to Republicans vote at

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Speaker 4: present and now what We're joined by the ranking member

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Speaker 4: on the Budget Committee to find some answers, Brendan Boyle,

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Speaker 4: of course, Democratic congressman from Pennsylvania. Stir it's great to

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Speaker 4: see you. Welcome back to Bloomberg TV and Radio. There

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Speaker 4: are questions about the Plan B. Now that we've had

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Speaker 4: this exercise, do you expect the Speaker to present you

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Speaker 4: with a clean CR, or is the Senate going to

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Speaker 4: solve this for us?

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Speaker 5: Well, the final resolution of this has been painfully obvious

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Speaker 5: to everyone except for perhaps Speaker Johnson and House Republican leadership.

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Speaker 5: The reality is we need a clean continuing resolution, a

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Speaker 5: clean CR, not something that has either a Democratic or

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Speaker 5: Republican poison pill. That is the only way we're going

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Speaker 5: to resolve this, and the sooner Speaker Johnson realizes that

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Speaker 5: the better off we will be. I am hopeful, however,

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Speaker 5: that we will see that finally and that that's how

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Speaker 5: we will resolve this to avoid a government shutdown. It

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Speaker 5: might not be a six month CR the way the

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Speaker 5: Speaker would want, but at least until the end of

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Speaker 5: the year, which has been past practice many a time

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Speaker 5: over the last decade.

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Speaker 6: Well, so if it is just for December, leaving it

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Speaker 6: to this Congress that is sitting now to sort out

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Speaker 6: rather than punting it to the next one Congressman, is

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Speaker 6: there anything else that should be sorted out there as well,

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Speaker 6: like debt limit negotiations rather than waiting until next year.

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Speaker 5: Well, as you may know from previous times I've been

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Speaker 5: on with you guys, I am the author of the

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Speaker 5: Debt Ceiling Reform Act. We will be back on the

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Speaker 5: clock in terms of the need to raise the debt

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Speaker 5: ceiling come midnight December thirty first into January first. Now,

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Speaker 5: of course that won't be the actual x state. That

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Speaker 5: will be some months later. And I've long believed that

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Speaker 5: we need a permanent resolution of the debt ceiling. The

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Speaker 5: sooner we get that done, the better, the better for markets,

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Speaker 5: and the better for the American people, so that we

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Speaker 5: would have the security and the knowledge that we won't,

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Speaker 5: either by design or accident, end up jeopardizing the full

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Speaker 5: faith and credit of the United States and bringing about

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Speaker 5: when many economists left and right believe would be a

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Speaker 5: worldwide recession.

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Speaker 4: I want to ask you how you had described this

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Speaker 4: moment we're in here economically, Congressman. The Federal Reserve began

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Speaker 4: a new regime by cutting fifty basis points yesterday, more

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Speaker 4: than some actually expected, a bit less than some Democratic

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Speaker 4: lawmakers were calling for. But it signifies a moment at

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Speaker 4: President Biden, speaking just about a half an hour ago

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Speaker 4: at the Economic Club here in Washington, said it was

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Speaker 4: not a moment.

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Speaker 7: Of victory, but one of progress.

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Speaker 4: This is something that I know that you have been

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Speaker 4: working with on the administration for years here to bring

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Speaker 4: down prices. Is it not time to declare victory now

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Speaker 4: that the Fed is cutting.

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Speaker 5: It's quite clear we are achieving the soft landing. We

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Speaker 5: have increased projections now with three percent growth for this quarter,

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Speaker 5: combined with inflation that is reaching the two percent target.

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Speaker 5: And that's what gave the Federal what they gave the

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Speaker 5: Federal Reserve and the FOMC the confidence to be able

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Speaker 5: to initiate this series of rate cuts, beginning with a

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Speaker 5: robust fifty basis point cut. They would not have done

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Speaker 5: that had they believed that inflation was still a major concern.

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Speaker 5: We've had rates too high for too long. In my view,

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Speaker 5: this is the highest that they've been in some seventeen years,

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Speaker 5: and I'm glad now that the Federal Reserve recognizes it's

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Speaker 5: time to bring them lower. But make no mistake about it,

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Speaker 5: this did not happen by accident. The record of achievement

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Speaker 5: in the policies of this administration is why the United

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Speaker 5: States leads the world in the recovery from the pandemic.

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Speaker 6: Well, Congressman, as the cutting cycle has now begun, there's

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Speaker 6: also the question of how long it might last as

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Speaker 6: we move to a new presidency next year, either a

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Speaker 6: Harris presidency or another Trump one. We've spoken with many

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Speaker 6: economists here on Bloomberg TV and Radio who have actually

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Speaker 6: suggested this easing cycle could potentially be cut short if

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Speaker 6: infletionary policies are pursued by either candidate. For Donald Trump,

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Speaker 6: of course, we're thinking of tariffs for lower taxes, but

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Speaker 6: Kamala Harris too was talking about different subsidies lower tax

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Speaker 6: rates for some individuals. Both of these people want to

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Speaker 6: spend and potentially have less revenue coming in simultaneously. Congressman,

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Speaker 6: so what would you say to those concerns that even

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Speaker 6: if it is a Harris presidency, inflation might rear its

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Speaker 6: head once again.

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Speaker 8: Well, first, let's be clear.

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Speaker 5: Recently, Goldman Sachs, not exactly known as a bastion of

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Speaker 5: liberalism or progressivism, Goldman Sachs released reports concluding that the

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Speaker 5: Harri's economic agenda would help the economy, while at the

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Speaker 5: same time, the Trump tariff agenda and his overall economic

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Speaker 5: policies would spike inflation and lead to a dramatic increase

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Speaker 5: in the deficit and the debt. So it's quite clear

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Speaker 5: that both candidates are not alike now in terms of

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Speaker 5: how that would impact FED policy.

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Speaker 8: I trust J.

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Speaker 5: Powell and the Federal Reserve governors at their word that

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Speaker 5: they will be data dependent. Hopefully come January, it'll be

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Speaker 5: a continuation of policies that have brought down inflation and

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Speaker 5: not this sudden tariff another word, another way of saying

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Speaker 5: tax agenda that Trump wants to pursue.

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Speaker 4: You must be encouraged by some of the polls that

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Speaker 4: we're seeing, Congressman, and I'll just stay right in your

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Speaker 4: state of Pennsylvania. Sienna and New York Times out today

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Speaker 4: Harris fifty, Trump forty six in the swing state of Pennsylvania.

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Speaker 4: We saw another from Quinnipiac yesterday showing Kamala Harris turning

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Speaker 4: around a massive gap that Joe Biden had with Donald

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Speaker 4: Trump when it came to who you trust to handle

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Speaker 4: the economy, pulling even in Pennsylvania. If this is a

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Speaker 4: standoff right now, how does it break out for one

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Speaker 4: candidate or the other?

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Speaker 7: The message in your state, Yeah.

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Speaker 5: Well, first, I didn't get too down when the polls

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Speaker 5: weren't looking good, and I'm not going to get I'm

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Speaker 5: not going to experience a rational exuberance now that the

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Speaker 5: polls are looking good on our side, an old Greenspan

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Speaker 5: rightence for longtime viewers. But I do think, however, that

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Speaker 5: over the next seven weeks or forty seven days, we.

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Speaker 8: Will see the polls move around a little bit as

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Speaker 8: they have.

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Speaker 5: I always expected, and I've said this before, that this

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Speaker 5: race would come down to Pennsylvania. And I think Pennsylvania

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Speaker 5: will be exactly as it was in twenty sixteen, and

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Speaker 5: exactly as it was in twenty twenty.

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Speaker 8: Pennsylvania will be a one point race. Right now.

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Speaker 5: I would rather be our side than the other side,

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Speaker 5: because in the end, I think middle class Pennsylvanians will

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Speaker 5: recognize there's only one candidate and campaign that's actually speaking

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Speaker 5: to their concerns, while the other side, Donald Trump, is

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Speaker 5: talking about god knows what, but it certainly isn't middle

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Speaker 5: class economics.

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Speaker 6: Well, when we consider the middle class economics, though, are

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Speaker 6: some of the economic proposals that have been put forward

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Speaker 6: by the vice president and by the former president, there

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Speaker 6: is some degree of overlap. Congressman, I could think of

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Speaker 6: no tax on tips, for example, for service workers, potentially

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Speaker 6: the child tax credit as well, and I wonder, given

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Speaker 6: your seat on Ways and Needs, whether or not you're

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Speaker 6: the majority or still in the minority in the new Congress,

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Speaker 6: if there are going to be some areas of bipartisan

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Speaker 6: compromise in tax policy specifically that you think we could

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Speaker 6: end up with no matter who becomes president.

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Speaker 5: Well, you know, it's interesting, while Donald Trump and Jdfans

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Speaker 5: talk a good game on the child tax credit, then

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Speaker 5: when there's the opportunity to actually expand it and make

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Speaker 5: it law, you don't see really any Republican support for

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Speaker 5: that in the United States Senate. Heck jd Vance didn't

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Speaker 5: even bother to show up for the vote. Now, in

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Speaker 5: terms of the no taxation on tips, look, that is

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Speaker 5: something that I'm very interested in. There have been a

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Speaker 5: number of Democrats over the years who have talked about that.

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Speaker 5: But the reality is, at the same time, Donald Trump

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Speaker 5: is also talking about further cutting corporate tax rates when

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Speaker 5: he was in office, contrary to what he talked about.

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Speaker 5: When he was in office, his number one priority was

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Speaker 5: the attempt to take away Obamacare from thirty million amarre Amerricans,

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Speaker 5: and then he followed that up with his large.

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Speaker 8: Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.

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Speaker 5: Which ended up ballooning the debt by two trillion dollars,

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Speaker 5: and as you know, eighty three percent of it went

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Speaker 5: to the richest one percent.

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Speaker 8: So sorry if.

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Speaker 5: I don't trust Donald Trump's word when it comes to

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Speaker 5: who he would be looking out for in taxation.

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Speaker 4: Well, you're about to walk into a grand debate here

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Speaker 4: on the expiring Trump era tax cuts. And of course

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Speaker 4: I know that the former president has changed his opinion

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Speaker 4: on the salt deduction, for instance, So this could take

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Speaker 4: on a lot of different forms. Something that's a lot

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Speaker 4: more immediate is the cost of gas energy in a

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Speaker 4: state like yours. The President talked about that at the

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Speaker 4: Economic Club. Congressman, I notice here, according to Triple A,

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Speaker 4: the average price for a gallon of regular unleaded in

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Speaker 4: Pennsylvania three dollars thirty six cents. How important is it

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Speaker 4: going to be for that number to come down? And

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Speaker 4: I'm asking you that as well, against the backdrop of

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Speaker 4: this debate over fracking. I know Kamala Harris has changed

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Speaker 4: her position on that, but it's something that of course

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Speaker 4: hits very close to home in Pennsylvania. How important will

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Speaker 4: that be in deciding your state?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, So, first let me just say, because I can't

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Speaker 5: resist on salt. I laughed out loud when I saw

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Speaker 5: yesterday Donald Trump came out against his own law. Donald

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Speaker 5: Trump is the reason why taxpayers in many states, including

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Speaker 5: in suburban Philadelphia, no longer have the ability to fully

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Speaker 5: deduct their property taxes and state and local income tax.

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Speaker 5: That tax increase was because of Donald Trump. Now suddenly

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Speaker 5: he's against it. I'm sure tomorrow he'll have a third

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Speaker 5: position on it. But as far as gas prices, let's

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Speaker 5: not forget. Gas prices today on average, are seventy cents

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Speaker 5: lower at the pump than they were just a year ago.

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Speaker 5: Gas prices spiked as a result of Vladimir Putin's invasion

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Speaker 5: of Ukraine that began two and a half years ago. Fortunately,

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Speaker 5: prices have dropped considerably since then, and today the United

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Speaker 5: States of America leads the world in energy production. We

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Speaker 5: literally lead the world in oil production. I think that

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Speaker 5: part of the story probably hasn't gotten out the way

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Speaker 5: it should. I would fully expect a President Harris to

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Speaker 5: continue pursuing a balanced approach when it comes to energy,

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Speaker 5: addressing our short term needs while at the same time

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Speaker 5: recognizing our medium and long term needs to finally address

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Speaker 5: the climate change crisis.

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Speaker 6: Well, Congressman, I know we've discussed this fracking question with

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Speaker 6: you before. We did so at the convention in Chicago

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Speaker 6: when we saw you there and you said that politicians

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Speaker 6: and leaders like Kamala Harris should be allowed some evolution

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Speaker 6: on the issues. And you think she ended up in

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Speaker 6: the right place with racking. She of course says that

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Speaker 6: she would no longer ban it. I just wonder if

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Speaker 6: you really believe that that has fully resonated in Pennsylvania

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Speaker 6: or if the attacks of Donald Trump on that issue

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Speaker 6: are actually breaking through.

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Speaker 5: Yeah. Well, you might remember I shared with you that

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Speaker 5: certainly in my career have one hundred percent in the

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Speaker 5: same views today that I had when I first was

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Speaker 5: elected to office. I think most human beings recognize that's natural,

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Speaker 5: and that has the facts change, your conclusions may change.

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Speaker 5: I would point out, though, that Kamala Harris has been

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Speaker 5: Vice president for the last four years and this administration

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Speaker 5: has actually increased the leases for fracking that was in

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Speaker 5: the Inflation Reduction Act. Natural gas is at an all

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Speaker 5: time high in terms of production in Pennsylvania in twenty

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Speaker 5: twenty three.

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Speaker 8: That breaks the previous record which was set in twenty

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Speaker 8: twenty two.

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Speaker 5: So she has a record that you can point to

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Speaker 5: to say, it's not just what she's saying today, she

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Speaker 5: has actually backed this up with her actions, not.

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Speaker 8: Just her words.

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Speaker 6: All right, Congressman, always great to have you here on

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Speaker 6: Bloomberg TV and Radio. Thank you so much for joining

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Speaker 6: us live from Capitol Hill on this Thursday. Congressman Brendan

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Speaker 6: Boyle of the key swing state of Pennsylvania.

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Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast.

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Speaker 3: Can just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and

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Speaker 3: then ron Oto with the Bloomberg Business Ad. You can

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Speaker 3: also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New

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Speaker 3: York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 4: We chart our course on this little Friday. Yes, welcome

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Speaker 4: to the Thursday edition of Balance of Power. I'm Joe

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Speaker 4: Matthew in Washington with much going on today. Joe Biden

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Speaker 4: is talking to the Economic Club of Washington a little

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Speaker 4: over an hour from now.

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Speaker 7: We'll get there. We'll bring an ear.

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Speaker 4: On that speech and walk you into the room to

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Speaker 4: see if we hear any news as we follow the

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Speaker 4: candidates themselves. Donald Trump resting up after a big night

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Speaker 4: long Island with a big night in the coliseum, and

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Speaker 4: Kamala Harris today heading from Michigan back to the swing

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Speaker 4: state of Michigan, the state that may well decide this

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Speaker 4: election on the issue that is expected to decide this election,

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Speaker 4: that's the economy. And so reach under your seat, right now,

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Speaker 4: reach under your seat.

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Speaker 7: Make sure there isn't a free car under there. Yes,

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Speaker 7: she's appearing with OPRAH.

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Speaker 4: I make not reference, of course to the many tax

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Speaker 4: exemptions that we've heard from both campaigns, But no, OPRAH

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Speaker 4: is going to be holding forth and what's described as

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Speaker 4: a virtual campaign event with Kamala Harris, and they are

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Speaker 4: doing it not by accident from Michigan. That'll happen tonight

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Speaker 4: eight forty five pm, I believe, do I have that right?

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Speaker 4: We'll get that for you in just a second, eight pm.

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Speaker 4: Forgive me the virtual event with OPRAH. And yes, that's right.

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Speaker 2: CC.

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Speaker 4: You get a vote, and you get a vote. I

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Speaker 4: mention all of this on a day that we get

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Speaker 4: a lot of new polling here. And this is interesting

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Speaker 4: because it comes after the Quinnipiac poll yesterday that showed

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Speaker 4: Kamala Harris catching up to, if not passing, Donald Trump

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Speaker 4: in what was really a statistical tie in the three

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Speaker 4: swing states that matter Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin. Here we go,

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Speaker 4: New York Times, Siena, Pennsylvania. Kamala Harris fifty Trump forty six.

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Speaker 4: Marised out with new statewide polls on those three, Harris

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Speaker 4: leading Trump in Michigan fifty two to forty seven, in Wisconsin,

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Speaker 4: fifty to forty nine. In Pennsylvania, they're tied at forty

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Speaker 4: nine within the margin here certainly, And I want to

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Speaker 4: add one more from Morning consult forty six percent of voters,

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Speaker 4: this might be the most important number that we hear

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Speaker 4: today say they trust Kamala Harris to handle the economy

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Speaker 4: the same share as Trump. That number was forty one

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Speaker 4: percent when Joe Biden was in the race. And yeah,

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Speaker 4: I'll add one more log to the fire. Financial Times,

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Speaker 4: University of Michigan Raw School, Harris a slight edge over

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Speaker 4: Trump when it comes to the economy. Now, remember we're

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Speaker 4: coming off the FED meeting yesterday. The wealth effect, the

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Speaker 4: psychological effect of this market rally. You put this all together,

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Speaker 4: and I can't wait to see what the Bloomberg swing

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Speaker 4: state pole says, because we're in the field right now.

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Speaker 4: On this one, not just post debate, but post fed

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Speaker 4: and for our audience here at Bloomberg that is of

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Speaker 4: course extremely important now as we consider where we are

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Speaker 4: here in the Grand Scheme, a conversation that we had

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Speaker 4: promised you on Balance of Power live from Washington, with

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Speaker 4: an eye of course, on Michigan. Nancy Kaffer is the

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Speaker 4: editorial page editor at the Detroit Free Press and back

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Speaker 4: with us on the program. Nancy, it's great to see you.

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Speaker 4: Sorry for the shower of numbers, but we live for

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Speaker 4: this stuff. And when it comes to the economy, we

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Speaker 4: have seen a pretty remarkable turn, and I wonder if

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Speaker 4: you're feeling that on the ground or hearing that from

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Speaker 4: people in the swing state of Michigan.

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Speaker 1: There's just, you know, instantly when the ticket switched, there

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Speaker 1: was a huge surge of excitement around Harris's candidacy that

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Speaker 1: just hadn't been there for Biden. And the question, of

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Speaker 1: course was would she be able to sustain it and

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Speaker 1: build on that over from the time in July till

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Speaker 1: the election. The big advantage here is that it's a

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Speaker 1: pretty short amount of time to kind of keep something going.

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Speaker 1: But we're starting to see some movement in the polls.

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Speaker 1: I would say that after twenty sixteen, I kind of

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Speaker 1: got out of the business of making predictions about what's

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Speaker 1: going to happen here. And if anyone tells you they know,

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Speaker 1: don't believe anything they say. It is going to be

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Speaker 1: close here. But the polls are definitely Our last poll

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Speaker 1: prior to the debate had her up by one point,

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Speaker 1: which is a big shift from I think our last

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Speaker 1: poll with Biden on the ticket had had him down

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Speaker 1: by an astounding thirteen points. So we're starting to see

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Speaker 1: some movement. You mentioned some of those polls that show

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Speaker 1: are with a substantial like lead outside the margin of error.

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Speaker 1: Either you know you know this, you know this game

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Speaker 1: better than I do. She's either we're going to start

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Speaker 1: to see more polls showing that result, or we'll find

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Speaker 1: out those polls were outliers. But we're going to learn

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Speaker 1: a lot. We've got a very short amount of time here.

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Speaker 7: We do. It's a short window.

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Speaker 4: But I have to admit we're starting to find some

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Speaker 4: continuity in these polls here, at least in terms of direction.

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Speaker 7: I think we can both admit here.

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Speaker 4: But I want to know more about what's happening in

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Speaker 4: Michigan because there were pockets of the of the progressive

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Speaker 4: Democratic base very upset with Joe Biden a lot to

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Speaker 4: do with Israel. I don't know if Arab American voters

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Speaker 4: in Michigan have changed.

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Speaker 7: Their tune on this, but this is a big deal for.

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Speaker 4: Democrats right now, particularly as we see Israel potentially open

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Speaker 4: a new front to the north with Hesbela. We're going

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Speaker 4: to talk more about that later on this hour. But

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Speaker 4: there was a real protest vote in Michigan, Nancy, what

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Speaker 4: about now?

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Speaker 1: So there was, and I think it's important to understand

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Speaker 1: that the Arab American vote was only a portion of that.

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Speaker 1: There was a large portion of uncommitted There one hundred

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Speaker 1: thousand uncommitted votes in Michigan and the presidential primary, which

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Speaker 1: doesn't sound like a lot of votes until you remember

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Speaker 1: that Trump won the state by about eleven thousand votes

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Speaker 1: in twenty sixteen and Biden won by about one hundred

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Speaker 1: and fifty thousand votes in twenty twenty. So one hundred

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Speaker 1: thousand votes, well, it might not be a significant percentage.

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Speaker 1: I'm a lot more interested in raw numbers right now,

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Speaker 1: given the last two cycles. So we saw that uncommitted vote,

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Speaker 1: not just in Wayne County, where the Arab American population

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Speaker 1: is centered, or in Oakland County where there's still a

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Speaker 1: significant population but smaller. We saw it in Washington Our

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Speaker 1: County where University of Michigan is so there's a big

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Speaker 1: college community there. We saw it in counties actually across

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Speaker 1: the state where there isn't a significant Ab American population

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Speaker 1: and where there isn't like a large progressive campus population.

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Speaker 1: So that is that is fascinating to me, and I

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Speaker 1: think there's a lot of tension and indecision in the

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Speaker 1: community about what the best thing to do this fall is.

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Speaker 1: In the Arab American community specifically, there's no one I've

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Speaker 1: talked to really believes that Trump is going to be

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Speaker 1: better on Gaza. This is what the folks are concerned about,

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Speaker 1: is a humanitarian crisis in Gaza and civilian deaths. I

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Speaker 1: don't think anyone thinks Trump is going to be better

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Speaker 1: on that. But there's a there's a hard stop for

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Speaker 1: people who feel that Harris has been complicit in an

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Speaker 1: administration that hasn't done anything to stop or put conditions

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Speaker 1: on the use of arms set or with kind of

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Speaker 1: late calling for a ceasefire, and for some folks it's

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Speaker 1: just kind of a moral hurdle that they're struggling to

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Speaker 1: get past. And I think there's a lot of real,

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Speaker 1: genuine conflict and angst in that community, and I don't

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Speaker 1: know how that's going to sort out.

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Speaker 7: Well.

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Speaker 4: That's a very thoughtful answer, which makes me think that

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Speaker 4: this is still a very real story here. I wonder

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Speaker 4: if it's something that Kamala Harris talks about in her

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Speaker 4: virtual event later, because yes, Oprah is coming to town,

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Speaker 4: and I'm curious about the Oprah effect if there is one.

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Speaker 4: Nancy will remember the impact that she had on Barack

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Speaker 4: Obama's campaign. But there's new pulling out for Monmouth University,

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Speaker 4: and I'm guessing no one's going to stop down to

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Speaker 4: talk about this today other than yours. Truly, Just over

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Speaker 4: half of American voters fifty three percent approof of Taylor

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Speaker 4: Swift getting involved in this campaign and encouraging her fans

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Speaker 4: to vote in the upcoming election. That means a lot

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Speaker 4: of Americans don't know. We're seeing a pretty steady decline

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Speaker 4: among independent and Republican and not a surprise voters in

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Speaker 4: their impression of Taylor Swift encouraging her fans to vote.

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Speaker 7: Does Oprah help in Michigan.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, Oprah's very popular. You might have heard that.

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Speaker 8: You know. The thing.

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Speaker 1: The thing is, when you look at where these candidates

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Speaker 1: are coming, right, You've got Harrison Walls have typically been

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Speaker 1: coming to Metro Detroit Detroit area, which is which is

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Speaker 1: a huge the democratic stronghold. When County is one of

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Speaker 1: the most democratic counties in America, Oakland County has become

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Speaker 1: has become much more democratic. It used to be a

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Speaker 1: Republican stronghold. For those of your listeners who don't have

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Speaker 1: an encyclopedic knowledge of Michigan counties, it's a more affluent,

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Speaker 1: more educated county. It's been trending blue Washington County where

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Speaker 1: ann Arbor in the University of Michigan are obviously much

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Speaker 1: more democratic and progressive. So they have been concentrating the

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Speaker 1: Democrats have been concentrating their retation in this area. The

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Speaker 1: Republicans have been coming to more rural, more outstate places.

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Speaker 1: So these guys know where their votes are, right and

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Speaker 1: there's roughly Michigan is roughly split. And this is a

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Speaker 1: turnout game. This is who can get people out to

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Speaker 1: the polls. And I think you see that in what

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Speaker 1: they're doing and where they're coming. And so Detroit is

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Speaker 1: a very democratic city, like ninety eight percent Democrat, we

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Speaker 1: tend to have lower voter turnout in the city of

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Speaker 1: Detroit proper. There's a lot of black voters in this

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Speaker 1: eighty percent black. It's it's a it's a it's a

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Speaker 1: city where turnout has lagged, and activating Detroit voters, getting

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Speaker 1: them to have an incentive to go out to the

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Speaker 1: polls is a big objective for a Democratic campaign that

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Speaker 1: wants to win statewide. So I think that that's you know,

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Speaker 1: this Oprah play, which is by the way, not open

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Speaker 1: to the public or I'm not even sure if it's

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Speaker 1: open to media. It is it is I think clearly

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Speaker 1: intentionally aimed at black voters in Detroit, and there is

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Speaker 1: a sizeable A lot of people don't realize that there's

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Speaker 1: a sizeable population of as there's been a you know,

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Speaker 1: over the last Detroit's population decline is probably something some

440
00:23:00,480 --> 00:23:02,160
Speaker 1: of your listeners, most of your listeners have heard something

441
00:23:02,200 --> 00:23:06,160
Speaker 1: about over the years. But a lot of black Detroiters

442
00:23:06,200 --> 00:23:08,280
Speaker 1: have moved out to suburbs, and so there are a

443
00:23:08,280 --> 00:23:09,960
Speaker 1: lot of suburbs that are not the majority of blacks, and

444
00:23:10,000 --> 00:23:12,080
Speaker 1: we also talk about the black voter Michigan. It's not

445
00:23:12,200 --> 00:23:15,240
Speaker 1: just Detroit. There's a broader swap. And I think that

446
00:23:15,359 --> 00:23:17,119
Speaker 1: you know, this is a very this is a very

447
00:23:17,160 --> 00:23:20,520
Speaker 1: intentional positioning in where this campaign is coming and who

448
00:23:20,520 --> 00:23:22,080
Speaker 1: they're reaching out to, because they know who they need

449
00:23:22,119 --> 00:23:25,200
Speaker 1: to turn out. And I think that the Trump Vance

450
00:23:25,200 --> 00:23:27,119
Speaker 1: campaign is doing the same thing. They've got to excite

451
00:23:27,160 --> 00:23:31,160
Speaker 1: those more rural, more exurban voters in historically red counties.

452
00:23:32,359 --> 00:23:33,359
Speaker 7: With the view from Michigan.

453
00:23:33,359 --> 00:23:35,560
Speaker 4: We're spending time with Nancy Kaffer at the Detroit Free

454
00:23:35,560 --> 00:23:38,800
Speaker 4: Press as part of our conversation today on Balance of Power.

455
00:23:39,200 --> 00:23:40,639
Speaker 4: Just about a minute from now, we're going to be

456
00:23:40,680 --> 00:23:43,399
Speaker 4: going to an important interview that Bloomberg's Lisa Abramowitz will

457
00:23:43,400 --> 00:23:47,600
Speaker 4: bring us with the CEO of Jet Blue. So Nancy,

458
00:23:47,680 --> 00:23:50,080
Speaker 4: in our remaining moment, I just wonder your thoughts, if

459
00:23:50,080 --> 00:23:53,159
Speaker 4: we can be somewhat brief here on the impact of

460
00:23:53,200 --> 00:23:56,840
Speaker 4: the teamster's decision to not endorse, knowing that rank and

461
00:23:56,880 --> 00:24:00,399
Speaker 4: fire or leaning toward Trump, how does that impact, for instance,

462
00:24:00,440 --> 00:24:03,720
Speaker 4: auto workers who have endorsed in this campaign in Michigan.

463
00:24:04,720 --> 00:24:06,840
Speaker 1: I think there's been a disconnect between leadership and the

464
00:24:06,920 --> 00:24:09,000
Speaker 1: rank and file for a while now, I think the

465
00:24:09,080 --> 00:24:11,840
Speaker 1: leadership has been more historically aligned with Democrats. I think

466
00:24:11,880 --> 00:24:14,440
Speaker 1: the rank and file has been turning, you know, towards

467
00:24:14,480 --> 00:24:21,280
Speaker 1: specifically toward Trump. I think this is probably, you know,

468
00:24:21,440 --> 00:24:24,879
Speaker 1: just further evidence of that. I think that it's going

469
00:24:24,960 --> 00:24:26,320
Speaker 1: to be interesting to see how it plays out a

470
00:24:26,320 --> 00:24:28,720
Speaker 1: lot of times we're sort of getting primary source information

471
00:24:28,800 --> 00:24:31,119
Speaker 1: as events play out in real time. You know, the

472
00:24:31,119 --> 00:24:33,240
Speaker 1: old thing that journalism is the first draft of history.

473
00:24:33,640 --> 00:24:35,600
Speaker 1: So I kind of I hope we can talk about

474
00:24:35,600 --> 00:24:37,800
Speaker 1: this after the election when we see how it's uh,

475
00:24:38,000 --> 00:24:39,480
Speaker 1: we see how these votes are shaken out.

476
00:24:40,400 --> 00:24:42,119
Speaker 7: Well, we will talk about it after the election. I

477
00:24:42,240 --> 00:24:43,840
Speaker 7: like to stay in touch with you until the election.

478
00:24:43,960 --> 00:24:45,040
Speaker 7: Nancy is great to have you back.

479
00:24:45,119 --> 00:24:48,320
Speaker 4: Nancy Kaffer runs the editorial page editor at the Detroit

480
00:24:48,400 --> 00:24:49,119
Speaker 4: Free Press.

481
00:24:52,720 --> 00:24:56,200
Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

482
00:24:56,320 --> 00:24:58,520
Speaker 2: Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern.

483
00:24:58,200 --> 00:25:00,240
Speaker 3: On Evil car Play and then run Auto with the

484
00:25:00,240 --> 00:25:04,160
Speaker 3: Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts,

485
00:25:04,359 --> 00:25:08,280
Speaker 3: or watch us live on YouTube.

486
00:25:08,600 --> 00:25:10,640
Speaker 4: Thanks for coming along. It's Balance of Power. You made

487
00:25:10,640 --> 00:25:14,760
Speaker 4: it to Thursday out. You're almost there. It's Oprah night

488
00:25:15,240 --> 00:25:18,240
Speaker 4: tonight on the campaign trail, Kamala Harris holding a virtual

489
00:25:18,280 --> 00:25:21,000
Speaker 4: event yes with Oprah, who of course spoke at the

490
00:25:21,040 --> 00:25:25,560
Speaker 4: Democratic National Convention in Chicago this day after Donald Trump

491
00:25:25,640 --> 00:25:30,080
Speaker 4: went swinging in New York, appearing at the Coliseum there Uniondale.

492
00:25:30,080 --> 00:25:32,879
Speaker 4: Remember we talked about this even though New York has

493
00:25:32,920 --> 00:25:37,560
Speaker 4: not gone to a Republican for many, many years, and

494
00:25:37,680 --> 00:25:41,200
Speaker 4: most analysts don't see that happening again, which raises questions

495
00:25:41,200 --> 00:25:43,320
Speaker 4: about some of the travel decisions that are being made

496
00:25:43,840 --> 00:25:46,280
Speaker 4: in this campaign. Of course, Trump was in Flint, Michigan

497
00:25:46,320 --> 00:25:48,800
Speaker 4: two days ago, and we have new numbers on the

498
00:25:48,840 --> 00:25:53,680
Speaker 4: swing states Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin yesterday, Quinnipiac today it's Marist

499
00:25:54,680 --> 00:25:59,680
Speaker 4: and Kamala Harris is either tied with or leading Donald

500
00:25:59,720 --> 00:26:01,760
Speaker 4: Trump in all three. These are the three states that

501
00:26:01,800 --> 00:26:04,439
Speaker 4: make up the blue Wall. Of course, Okay, Michigan Harris

502
00:26:04,520 --> 00:26:08,120
Speaker 4: fifty two, Trump forty seven, Wisconsin Harris with a one

503
00:26:08,160 --> 00:26:12,480
Speaker 4: point lead. They're tied in Pennsylvania. New York Times Sienna

504
00:26:12,560 --> 00:26:15,600
Speaker 4: brings forth Pennsylvania specifically, a lot of people think this

505
00:26:15,720 --> 00:26:19,600
Speaker 4: is the state that decides the election. Harris fifty Trump

506
00:26:19,800 --> 00:26:22,840
Speaker 4: forty six and as I mentioned, we're hearing more about

507
00:26:23,680 --> 00:26:28,080
Speaker 4: Kamala Harris and the level at which voters trust her

508
00:26:28,200 --> 00:26:31,879
Speaker 4: with the economy. She's pulled even with Donald Trump in

509
00:26:31,920 --> 00:26:36,240
Speaker 4: the Morning Consult pull forty six percent, and she's leading

510
00:26:36,280 --> 00:26:38,080
Speaker 4: Donald Trump by a bit in the latest You Miss

511
00:26:38,240 --> 00:26:41,840
Speaker 4: Ross School pull. So this is a very important moment

512
00:26:41,880 --> 00:26:45,480
Speaker 4: in the campaign where a day after the Fed everyone

513
00:26:45,520 --> 00:26:49,320
Speaker 4: knows interest rates are coming down, stock market going up,

514
00:26:49,680 --> 00:26:52,040
Speaker 4: and the potential wealth effect that that could have if

515
00:26:52,080 --> 00:26:55,639
Speaker 4: only psychologically. Of course, that is the idea behind the

516
00:26:55,640 --> 00:26:58,680
Speaker 4: wealth effect. See how our panel feels about it today.

517
00:26:58,680 --> 00:27:00,920
Speaker 4: We've got a lot to talk about with It's Camuso Miller,

518
00:27:00,960 --> 00:27:03,879
Speaker 4: the former RNC Communications director, is with us, host of

519
00:27:03,960 --> 00:27:07,439
Speaker 4: the Friday Reporter podcast, joined by Adam Hodge, Managing director,

520
00:27:07,480 --> 00:27:12,600
Speaker 4: Bully Pulpit, international democratic strategist and former economic advisor for

521
00:27:12,720 --> 00:27:13,639
Speaker 4: President Biden.

522
00:27:13,680 --> 00:27:15,800
Speaker 7: Great to see both of you here. Welcome.

523
00:27:15,840 --> 00:27:19,280
Speaker 4: I'm looking forward to this conversation. As Yes producer James

524
00:27:19,320 --> 00:27:21,560
Speaker 4: calls us the balance of polls today, We've got a

525
00:27:21,600 --> 00:27:23,800
Speaker 4: lot of data and I apologize for all the numbers,

526
00:27:23,800 --> 00:27:28,000
Speaker 4: but they create a mosaic Adam that would show Kamala

527
00:27:28,080 --> 00:27:30,679
Speaker 4: Harris catching up with Donald Trump on the issue that

528
00:27:30,760 --> 00:27:33,879
Speaker 4: will decide this election. They're basically tied on the economy.

529
00:27:34,160 --> 00:27:35,879
Speaker 4: And when you look at the very small number of

530
00:27:35,920 --> 00:27:39,359
Speaker 4: voters that they're fighting over here, this race is locked

531
00:27:40,240 --> 00:27:42,119
Speaker 4: and it really could not be a lot closer. And

532
00:27:42,160 --> 00:27:45,240
Speaker 4: the polls where she's leading Trump, it's basically within the

533
00:27:45,280 --> 00:27:48,240
Speaker 4: statistical margin of error, Adam, So, how do you decipher

534
00:27:48,560 --> 00:27:49,440
Speaker 4: these polls?

535
00:27:51,119 --> 00:27:53,639
Speaker 7: I think one with a little bit of caution.

536
00:27:54,320 --> 00:27:57,560
Speaker 9: These are a snapshot in time, right so, well, we

537
00:27:57,640 --> 00:27:59,600
Speaker 9: know this is how voters in some of these states

538
00:27:59,600 --> 00:28:02,760
Speaker 9: think right now. I know from talking to the campaign

539
00:28:03,440 --> 00:28:05,240
Speaker 9: they're keeping their head down on the ground and so

540
00:28:05,600 --> 00:28:09,399
Speaker 9: they're focused. In Pennsylvania, for example, great that there's a

541
00:28:09,400 --> 00:28:12,040
Speaker 9: poll that shows her up for they know they got

542
00:28:12,040 --> 00:28:14,919
Speaker 9: fifty offices that are open, and they got hundreds of volunteers,

543
00:28:15,280 --> 00:28:16,800
Speaker 9: and they got to get them out on the doors,

544
00:28:17,160 --> 00:28:19,440
Speaker 9: knock it and try to get people to commit to vote.

545
00:28:19,680 --> 00:28:22,400
Speaker 9: Early voting is just a few weeks away, and so

546
00:28:22,440 --> 00:28:24,399
Speaker 9: they know that they're trying to get people energized and

547
00:28:24,520 --> 00:28:27,640
Speaker 9: thus to get ready and go out. I think that

548
00:28:27,720 --> 00:28:30,600
Speaker 9: is where I from talking to the campaign, where their

549
00:28:30,640 --> 00:28:33,520
Speaker 9: focus is. I think on the numbers in the economy, though,

550
00:28:33,920 --> 00:28:36,040
Speaker 9: it speaks to you know, she's been laying at more

551
00:28:36,080 --> 00:28:39,040
Speaker 9: details and policy, and from people who watched the debate,

552
00:28:39,400 --> 00:28:41,160
Speaker 9: that was one of the key numbers that jumped out

553
00:28:41,200 --> 00:28:43,680
Speaker 9: to me in some of the latest polls, both the

554
00:28:43,760 --> 00:28:47,360
Speaker 9: ft Pole and the other ones that we've mentioned. People

555
00:28:47,400 --> 00:28:49,880
Speaker 9: who watched the debate, they heard her talk about her

556
00:28:49,920 --> 00:28:52,480
Speaker 9: plans for the economy and they seem to be responding

557
00:28:52,480 --> 00:28:54,600
Speaker 9: to it. And so the campaign certainly has got to

558
00:28:54,640 --> 00:28:56,720
Speaker 9: be happy about that, but they know they got to

559
00:28:56,760 --> 00:28:57,680
Speaker 9: do the work on the ground.

560
00:29:00,040 --> 00:29:02,240
Speaker 4: What's your take on this, And if you're Donald Trump,

561
00:29:02,760 --> 00:29:05,640
Speaker 4: do you have to worry about the one issue that

562
00:29:05,760 --> 00:29:07,720
Speaker 4: you really seem to own that was who do you

563
00:29:07,760 --> 00:29:10,080
Speaker 4: trust to handle the economy? Who do you trust to

564
00:29:10,080 --> 00:29:12,680
Speaker 4: handle interest rates? Or is this kind of a brief

565
00:29:12,800 --> 00:29:15,600
Speaker 4: feeling of euphoria after the Fed finally started.

566
00:29:15,320 --> 00:29:20,240
Speaker 10: Cutting Well, I certainly think that. I think Adam's probably right.

567
00:29:20,280 --> 00:29:22,680
Speaker 10: Both sides of this campaign have got to very well

568
00:29:22,720 --> 00:29:26,600
Speaker 10: be very cautious about getting excited because there's still a

569
00:29:26,640 --> 00:29:29,640
Speaker 10: little ways to go. Joe, so yes, I think economic

570
00:29:29,720 --> 00:29:33,040
Speaker 10: news moving in the right direction under Kamala Harris and

571
00:29:33,120 --> 00:29:36,400
Speaker 10: Joe Biden's administration, I think does work in their favor.

572
00:29:36,480 --> 00:29:40,200
Speaker 10: Donald Trump still will always be the candidate that voters

573
00:29:40,240 --> 00:29:42,680
Speaker 10: see as the one that they feel more confident as

574
00:29:42,680 --> 00:29:46,320
Speaker 10: it relates to the economy, for better or for worse.

575
00:29:46,360 --> 00:29:48,920
Speaker 10: I'm not so sure that the data proves that out,

576
00:29:48,960 --> 00:29:51,080
Speaker 10: but that's sort of the way the voters have been feeling.

577
00:29:51,400 --> 00:29:54,000
Speaker 10: Also to Joe, a lot can happen between now and then,

578
00:29:54,080 --> 00:29:56,720
Speaker 10: and so I think the other question becomes how much

579
00:29:56,720 --> 00:29:59,160
Speaker 10: of an impact does the fact that the Congress didn't

580
00:29:59,200 --> 00:30:03,040
Speaker 10: get a continuing resolution done yesterday impact some of those

581
00:30:04,080 --> 00:30:06,680
Speaker 10: polling numbers. There's so many other factors that really play

582
00:30:06,720 --> 00:30:08,240
Speaker 10: here that I think we have to keep an eye

583
00:30:08,280 --> 00:30:10,400
Speaker 10: on it. But certainly for the Harris campaign, they should

584
00:30:10,400 --> 00:30:13,560
Speaker 10: be feeling very confident knowing that their messaging is hitting

585
00:30:13,560 --> 00:30:15,920
Speaker 10: and it's working, and the Trump campaign has a lot

586
00:30:15,920 --> 00:30:18,280
Speaker 10: of work to do in order to maintain that foothold

587
00:30:18,280 --> 00:30:19,800
Speaker 10: that they had before this week.

588
00:30:21,600 --> 00:30:23,280
Speaker 4: You know, we're going to be hearing from Kamala Harris,

589
00:30:23,320 --> 00:30:26,400
Speaker 4: as I mentioned later today, with Oprah Adam, I don't

590
00:30:26,400 --> 00:30:28,960
Speaker 4: know if they're going to get to these types of issues,

591
00:30:30,320 --> 00:30:33,600
Speaker 4: but what's the Oprah effect in the States that we're

592
00:30:33,600 --> 00:30:36,600
Speaker 4: talking about. You go to Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and talk

593
00:30:36,600 --> 00:30:39,160
Speaker 4: about one of the most famous celebrities in the world here.

594
00:30:39,160 --> 00:30:42,040
Speaker 4: And what she brings to the race is is it quantifiable?

595
00:30:44,600 --> 00:30:47,280
Speaker 9: I think it's eyeballs and it gets people to pay

596
00:30:47,280 --> 00:30:51,200
Speaker 9: attention and hear Harris's name. And if it's another day

597
00:30:51,240 --> 00:30:53,360
Speaker 9: where she wins the news cycle, where she can talking

598
00:30:53,400 --> 00:30:57,480
Speaker 9: about her ideas and her visions, that's a win. And

599
00:30:57,520 --> 00:30:59,960
Speaker 9: so that's where I think you can you can see

600
00:31:00,120 --> 00:31:03,760
Speaker 9: her kind of leverage this moment. But I'm structure also

601
00:31:03,800 --> 00:31:05,760
Speaker 9: by what you talked about kind of in your lead

602
00:31:05,800 --> 00:31:10,160
Speaker 9: as well. You know, Trump campaigning in Long Island not

603
00:31:10,320 --> 00:31:14,320
Speaker 9: exactly about presidential battleground, but you saw last week Harris

604
00:31:14,520 --> 00:31:17,480
Speaker 9: went out to you Johnstown and Wilkes Bar in Pennsylvania,

605
00:31:17,880 --> 00:31:21,640
Speaker 9: not traditional Democratic strongholds in a but in a true

606
00:31:21,680 --> 00:31:25,440
Speaker 9: swing state, trying to ramp up her margin or shrink

607
00:31:25,520 --> 00:31:28,600
Speaker 9: the deficit that she will have with Trump in some

608
00:31:28,640 --> 00:31:31,800
Speaker 9: of those areas. That's just a key strategy for the campaign.

609
00:31:32,280 --> 00:31:34,400
Speaker 9: Something he saw them do in Georgia that right, They

610
00:31:34,440 --> 00:31:37,160
Speaker 9: did that tour after the debate where they went to

611
00:31:37,440 --> 00:31:42,480
Speaker 9: Savannah in southeast Southwest Georgia trying to It's all about margins,

612
00:31:42,640 --> 00:31:44,520
Speaker 9: and if you can hold down the margins in some

613
00:31:44,560 --> 00:31:47,760
Speaker 9: of these key areas by talking about your plans, you're

614
00:31:47,800 --> 00:31:50,080
Speaker 9: more likely to be successful on election Day.

615
00:31:51,800 --> 00:31:54,000
Speaker 7: Why is Donald Trump in New York?

616
00:31:54,840 --> 00:31:58,120
Speaker 4: Lisa A lot has been talked about his sort of

617
00:31:58,200 --> 00:32:02,520
Speaker 4: desire to win the state despite the history. He says

618
00:32:02,600 --> 00:32:05,640
Speaker 4: he's serious about winning New York City, which has voted

619
00:32:05,680 --> 00:32:09,000
Speaker 4: Democratic in every presidential election since nineteen eighty four.

620
00:32:09,640 --> 00:32:10,640
Speaker 7: Is that time well spent?

621
00:32:13,080 --> 00:32:13,280
Speaker 11: Well?

622
00:32:13,320 --> 00:32:15,640
Speaker 10: I mean, it's certainly in the biggest media market in

623
00:32:15,760 --> 00:32:18,239
Speaker 10: the country, right, so it's going to continue to get

624
00:32:18,240 --> 00:32:19,720
Speaker 10: to draw a lot of eyeballs and a lot of

625
00:32:19,720 --> 00:32:22,760
Speaker 10: people paying attention for Donald Trump. That's his home city.

626
00:32:22,800 --> 00:32:24,840
Speaker 10: So he's hoping that that works out in his favor

627
00:32:24,880 --> 00:32:27,200
Speaker 10: and then he makes history that way. And the other

628
00:32:27,240 --> 00:32:29,200
Speaker 10: thing too, to Adam's point, is that this race, the

629
00:32:29,240 --> 00:32:31,680
Speaker 10: one thing these polls show us, Joe, is this race

630
00:32:31,760 --> 00:32:34,479
Speaker 10: is raiz or of thin that people are really still

631
00:32:34,800 --> 00:32:37,160
Speaker 10: going to come down to how many people turn out

632
00:32:37,240 --> 00:32:39,280
Speaker 10: and who's going to be in the ballot box. And

633
00:32:39,320 --> 00:32:41,040
Speaker 10: so if you're Donald Trump, you're thinking I'm in the

634
00:32:41,040 --> 00:32:43,680
Speaker 10: biggest media mark in the country. I'm making as much

635
00:32:43,720 --> 00:32:45,880
Speaker 10: news as I possibly can, and I'm giving myself an

636
00:32:45,880 --> 00:32:49,040
Speaker 10: opportunity to maybe win a city that ordinarily Republicans don't

637
00:32:49,080 --> 00:32:52,560
Speaker 10: necessarily carry. So for him, perhaps that's the calculus that's

638
00:32:52,600 --> 00:32:53,600
Speaker 10: going on in his mind.

639
00:32:55,040 --> 00:32:58,760
Speaker 4: You know, he revived the claims of Haitian immigrants eating

640
00:32:58,800 --> 00:33:02,560
Speaker 4: pets in Springfield last night. I bring this up, Adam,

641
00:33:02,640 --> 00:33:04,960
Speaker 4: not to be labor this day after day, but the

642
00:33:05,000 --> 00:33:07,520
Speaker 4: presidential candidate is bringing it up to talk about it,

643
00:33:07,560 --> 00:33:10,400
Speaker 4: and he says he's going to visit both Springfield, Ohio

644
00:33:10,520 --> 00:33:13,360
Speaker 4: and Aurora, Colorado in the next two weeks. There's been

645
00:33:13,400 --> 00:33:15,320
Speaker 4: a lot of reporting on this. Wall Street Journal's got

646
00:33:15,360 --> 00:33:17,880
Speaker 4: another dive on this today, making it pretty clear that

647
00:33:17,920 --> 00:33:20,600
Speaker 4: the campaign very well knew that these claims were false.

648
00:33:20,600 --> 00:33:23,000
Speaker 4: They actually reached out to the city government in Springfield

649
00:33:23,000 --> 00:33:25,600
Speaker 4: on September ninth, before Donald Trump said it on the

650
00:33:25,600 --> 00:33:28,000
Speaker 4: debate stage on September tenth.

651
00:33:28,040 --> 00:33:32,840
Speaker 7: Does Kamala Harris respond to any of this, I.

652
00:33:32,880 --> 00:33:35,600
Speaker 9: Think she does by highlighting that this is just more

653
00:33:35,600 --> 00:33:37,800
Speaker 9: of the same old chaos and division that you saw

654
00:33:37,840 --> 00:33:41,959
Speaker 9: from Trump in his presidency. I pull after poll shows

655
00:33:42,360 --> 00:33:44,720
Speaker 9: that's what the voters are tuned off by the most.

656
00:33:45,200 --> 00:33:47,200
Speaker 9: You know, it's not that whether he's weird or whether

657
00:33:47,240 --> 00:33:50,440
Speaker 9: he's you know, doing other crazy things, although talking about

658
00:33:50,480 --> 00:33:52,520
Speaker 9: people eating cats and dogs is a little bit weird,

659
00:33:53,160 --> 00:33:55,960
Speaker 9: but it's more about this point, about the chaos and division.

660
00:33:56,240 --> 00:33:58,280
Speaker 7: And it could not be any.

661
00:33:58,120 --> 00:34:01,680
Speaker 9: More clear when you have the mayor of Springfield, the

662
00:34:01,720 --> 00:34:05,160
Speaker 9: governor of Ohio saying like this is a bunch of nonsense.

663
00:34:05,360 --> 00:34:08,480
Speaker 9: We really don't want you coming and distracting our community.

664
00:34:08,520 --> 00:34:12,120
Speaker 9: It's tearing our schools apart. You saw actually one of

665
00:34:12,120 --> 00:34:14,560
Speaker 9: her most powerful answers in that interview with the National

666
00:34:14,680 --> 00:34:17,200
Speaker 9: Black Journalists this week, talking about the kids going to

667
00:34:17,239 --> 00:34:19,440
Speaker 9: school for the school class picture, and it all got

668
00:34:19,480 --> 00:34:22,120
Speaker 9: canceled because there was a you know, there are bomb

669
00:34:22,120 --> 00:34:24,440
Speaker 9: threats in the town. That's the type of chast and

670
00:34:24,480 --> 00:34:27,200
Speaker 9: division the American people, quite frankly, they just cannot don't

671
00:34:27,239 --> 00:34:28,920
Speaker 9: have any patients for and don't want it any part

672
00:34:28,960 --> 00:34:30,879
Speaker 9: of at least.

673
00:34:30,920 --> 00:34:32,600
Speaker 4: I don't know if you heard the chant last night

674
00:34:33,239 --> 00:34:39,040
Speaker 4: inside the coliseum, save the cats. Remember lock her up?

675
00:34:39,120 --> 00:34:43,640
Speaker 4: Now we're doing save the cats. What's that doing for

676
00:34:43,680 --> 00:34:48,640
Speaker 4: the message on the economy For a campaign that was leading.

677
00:34:48,920 --> 00:34:53,719
Speaker 10: On that front, I mean, Joe, to me, this is

678
00:34:53,960 --> 00:35:00,360
Speaker 10: just another silly gimmick that does definitely keep people paying

679
00:35:00,400 --> 00:35:04,879
Speaker 10: closer attention to what Donald Trump will say next. And

680
00:35:05,040 --> 00:35:07,799
Speaker 10: so whether or not that there is genius in that

681
00:35:08,080 --> 00:35:12,200
Speaker 10: tactic or if that is just plain bizarre to all

682
00:35:12,239 --> 00:35:15,239
Speaker 10: of us that are digesting it every day, I'm not

683
00:35:15,320 --> 00:35:17,759
Speaker 10: so sure. But the one thing I will say is

684
00:35:17,760 --> 00:35:21,040
Speaker 10: that Donald Trump continues to be followed and paid attention

685
00:35:21,080 --> 00:35:23,319
Speaker 10: to by those who love him and those who hate him,

686
00:35:23,680 --> 00:35:26,960
Speaker 10: and that continues to keep the spotlight on him, regardless

687
00:35:27,000 --> 00:35:31,960
Speaker 10: of how ridiculous this theme is that he's talking about.

688
00:35:33,120 --> 00:35:34,919
Speaker 4: Well, I'll tell you what, if he decides to visit

689
00:35:34,960 --> 00:35:38,720
Speaker 4: either of those towns, that's going to be quite a splash. Adam,

690
00:35:38,760 --> 00:35:40,960
Speaker 4: considered the logistics you worked in the White House. The

691
00:35:41,640 --> 00:35:44,759
Speaker 4: type of security that Donald Trump now has is on

692
00:35:44,800 --> 00:35:47,400
Speaker 4: the level of a sitting president. He's got the full compliment.

693
00:35:47,480 --> 00:35:49,600
Speaker 4: What would it mean to roll into Springfield after all

694
00:35:49,640 --> 00:35:53,600
Speaker 4: these bomb threats with the full Secret Service entourage.

695
00:35:55,480 --> 00:35:58,480
Speaker 9: He's a huge upheaval whenever one of these candidates travels.

696
00:35:58,520 --> 00:36:02,120
Speaker 9: And I think I again, that's why it struck me

697
00:36:02,200 --> 00:36:06,239
Speaker 9: that the Republican governor of Ohio, and you know, the

698
00:36:06,680 --> 00:36:09,799
Speaker 9: city manager, the mayor of Springfield have just asked them

699
00:36:09,880 --> 00:36:11,719
Speaker 9: just to stop it, to tone it down, and it's

700
00:36:11,760 --> 00:36:15,440
Speaker 9: not true. It's tearing apart in the fabric of the

701
00:36:15,480 --> 00:36:18,520
Speaker 9: city and even you know, some of the underlying issues

702
00:36:18,520 --> 00:36:22,719
Speaker 9: were the frustration in the town of Springfield around the

703
00:36:23,080 --> 00:36:25,480
Speaker 9: immigrant increase of immigrant population.

704
00:36:25,239 --> 00:36:25,719
Speaker 7: In the town.

705
00:36:26,800 --> 00:36:28,759
Speaker 9: You know, I've struck by some of the family members

706
00:36:28,800 --> 00:36:31,680
Speaker 9: who actually were most affected by calling this out and

707
00:36:31,680 --> 00:36:33,719
Speaker 9: saying it's just it's tearing apart our community and we

708
00:36:34,080 --> 00:36:36,839
Speaker 9: just shouldn't stand for it. So I think it has

709
00:36:36,840 --> 00:36:41,200
Speaker 9: a risk of backfiring. I think the Harris campaign, certainly

710
00:36:41,200 --> 00:36:44,000
Speaker 9: it is talking about how President Trump wants to divide

711
00:36:44,080 --> 00:36:47,040
Speaker 9: us and that she's the new way forward of trying

712
00:36:47,080 --> 00:36:49,680
Speaker 9: to bring people together. It plays into her hands in

713
00:36:50,000 --> 00:36:53,360
Speaker 9: many ways, but I think she's got to stay focused

714
00:36:53,400 --> 00:36:55,880
Speaker 9: also on what her economic vision is for the country,

715
00:36:56,239 --> 00:36:57,960
Speaker 9: and that's where where I think you'll see her talk

716
00:36:57,960 --> 00:37:01,000
Speaker 9: about in the in the event with Oprah's Night and

717
00:37:01,239 --> 00:37:02,640
Speaker 9: over the next forty six days.

718
00:37:04,719 --> 00:37:06,640
Speaker 4: We're going to be listening, of course to that event,

719
00:37:06,680 --> 00:37:09,200
Speaker 4: as we do both candidates when they're in the field.

720
00:37:09,200 --> 00:37:12,360
Speaker 4: It's eight pm. I believe Eastern time, Hope, Brah. This

721
00:37:12,440 --> 00:37:14,799
Speaker 4: is virtual though, you know I'm a crowd for this,

722
00:37:14,840 --> 00:37:16,080
Speaker 4: so I'm not sure how that's going to go.

723
00:37:19,360 --> 00:37:22,719
Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast Ken

724
00:37:22,880 --> 00:37:26,080
Speaker 2: Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then.

725
00:37:25,960 --> 00:37:28,920
Speaker 3: Rodoto with the Bloomberg Business Ad. You can also listen

726
00:37:29,040 --> 00:37:32,160
Speaker 3: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,

727
00:37:32,520 --> 00:37:36,600
Speaker 3: Just Say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

728
00:37:37,239 --> 00:37:39,640
Speaker 6: We want to get some more expert analysis on this now,

729
00:37:39,680 --> 00:37:41,799
Speaker 6: and we turn to Jennifer Kavanaugh, who is Senior Fellow

730
00:37:41,840 --> 00:37:45,839
Speaker 6: and Director of Military Analysis at Defense Priorities. Welcome back

731
00:37:45,840 --> 00:37:48,239
Speaker 6: to Bloomberg TV and Radio. Jennifer. I'd love to begin

732
00:37:48,320 --> 00:37:50,640
Speaker 6: with you in the point that Dan was just alluding

733
00:37:50,640 --> 00:37:53,719
Speaker 6: to the question here, frankly, of Israel's capacity to fight

734
00:37:53,760 --> 00:37:57,000
Speaker 6: a war on multiple fronts. If this is where it goes,

735
00:37:57,080 --> 00:38:00,319
Speaker 6: If Hesbola is the better armed and better prepared advert Sari,

736
00:38:00,360 --> 00:38:02,600
Speaker 6: perhaps more so than Hamas, with which they've been fighting

737
00:38:02,600 --> 00:38:06,000
Speaker 6: now for nearly a full year, is Israel really ready

738
00:38:06,000 --> 00:38:07,759
Speaker 6: for this or does it want to avoid it?

739
00:38:09,800 --> 00:38:12,760
Speaker 11: Well, a wider war isn't in anyone's interests, including Israel's.

740
00:38:13,360 --> 00:38:16,960
Speaker 11: Hesbela has one hundred and fifty thousand ballistic missiles, not

741
00:38:17,000 --> 00:38:19,640
Speaker 11: bolistic missiles, excuse me, one hundred thy thousand missiles, including

742
00:38:19,680 --> 00:38:24,600
Speaker 11: ballistic missiles that can strike major Israeli cities. So the

743
00:38:24,640 --> 00:38:28,640
Speaker 11: threat from Hesbela is significantly greater than the threat from Hamas,

744
00:38:29,000 --> 00:38:31,720
Speaker 11: and the casualties would be much higher. If you remember,

745
00:38:31,920 --> 00:38:34,759
Speaker 11: Israel bought a war against Hesbela in two thousand and six,

746
00:38:34,800 --> 00:38:39,319
Speaker 11: and it did not go well for Israel, although they

747
00:38:39,360 --> 00:38:43,200
Speaker 11: did end up of victorious in the end, or victorious

748
00:38:43,200 --> 00:38:47,040
Speaker 11: as as victorious as they could be. So it's definitely

749
00:38:47,040 --> 00:38:50,479
Speaker 11: not in Israel's interests. It's not clear that they would

750
00:38:50,719 --> 00:38:54,520
Speaker 11: necessarily achieve their objectives. It's also not in Hesbela's interests

751
00:38:54,560 --> 00:38:57,400
Speaker 11: to have a wider war, which could potentially put some

752
00:38:57,520 --> 00:38:59,600
Speaker 11: restraint on any retaliation that they might have.

753
00:39:00,680 --> 00:39:04,960
Speaker 4: Well, you mentioned the ballistic missiles here, and that's quite

754
00:39:05,000 --> 00:39:07,279
Speaker 4: a bit all on its own, Jennifer, how do you

755
00:39:07,360 --> 00:39:11,600
Speaker 4: contrast Hesbelah as a fighting force and the type of

756
00:39:11,680 --> 00:39:15,600
Speaker 4: strategy that the IDF would have to employ very different

757
00:39:15,640 --> 00:39:17,280
Speaker 4: than going after Hamas and Gaza.

758
00:39:20,080 --> 00:39:23,480
Speaker 11: Absolutely it would be I mean, the first real challenge

759
00:39:23,480 --> 00:39:26,239
Speaker 11: I think would be coming from the air because they

760
00:39:26,280 --> 00:39:29,279
Speaker 11: have such a large missile arsenal as well as these

761
00:39:29,280 --> 00:39:32,960
Speaker 11: ballistic missiles, they can saturate Israeli air defense and that

762
00:39:33,040 --> 00:39:35,839
Speaker 11: will allow them to get some missiles through. So that's

763
00:39:35,880 --> 00:39:39,000
Speaker 11: the first real challenge. The second is that hesbel has

764
00:39:39,040 --> 00:39:41,880
Speaker 11: a much bigger group, a much better armed group just

765
00:39:41,920 --> 00:39:43,799
Speaker 11: in terms of other types of weapons that they have

766
00:39:43,880 --> 00:39:46,719
Speaker 11: on the ground. So any type of ground incursion would

767
00:39:46,760 --> 00:39:50,160
Speaker 11: also be much much more difficult, and you have to

768
00:39:50,160 --> 00:39:53,360
Speaker 11: believe that the HESBELA fighters have built fortifications and booby

769
00:39:53,360 --> 00:39:56,799
Speaker 11: traps and other types of challenges that Israeli soldiers that

770
00:39:56,840 --> 00:40:00,279
Speaker 11: would face were they to go, were they to launch

771
00:40:00,360 --> 00:40:03,439
Speaker 11: a larger ground invasion, So I think what's more likely

772
00:40:03,520 --> 00:40:06,120
Speaker 11: is that you might see smaller raids. I think the

773
00:40:06,160 --> 00:40:09,720
Speaker 11: main goal of what we've seen in Israel and Lebanon

774
00:40:09,840 --> 00:40:11,880
Speaker 11: over the past couple of days has been to really

775
00:40:11,880 --> 00:40:15,839
Speaker 11: put pressure on HESBLA and to show not necessarily that

776
00:40:16,080 --> 00:40:20,520
Speaker 11: they're planning a large ground invasion, but that this will

777
00:40:20,520 --> 00:40:24,920
Speaker 11: be the focus of Israel's political and military pressure to

778
00:40:25,000 --> 00:40:28,200
Speaker 11: try to get some sort of buffer and force the

779
00:40:28,280 --> 00:40:32,120
Speaker 11: issue to be able to move the Israeli's back into

780
00:40:32,480 --> 00:40:33,600
Speaker 11: their homes in the North.

781
00:40:34,880 --> 00:40:39,080
Speaker 6: Well, of course, Hesbela and Hesbela's chief in a news

782
00:40:39,080 --> 00:40:42,480
Speaker 6: conference today essentially said that Israel won't be able to

783
00:40:42,520 --> 00:40:45,279
Speaker 6: do that until the war in Gaza ends. That the

784
00:40:45,320 --> 00:40:48,400
Speaker 6: attacks on Israel will not stop until the war in

785
00:40:48,440 --> 00:40:52,280
Speaker 6: Gaza stops. Jennifer, are we any closer to that actually

786
00:40:52,320 --> 00:40:56,560
Speaker 6: becoming reality? What does this do to the conversations around

787
00:40:56,600 --> 00:40:57,239
Speaker 6: a ceasefire?

788
00:40:59,440 --> 00:41:01,680
Speaker 11: I mean, I think honestly it makes it less likely

789
00:41:02,920 --> 00:41:06,359
Speaker 11: because I'm just really not sure, and I think many

790
00:41:06,400 --> 00:41:08,680
Speaker 11: other analysts share this view that it's just not clear

791
00:41:08,719 --> 00:41:12,319
Speaker 11: what Hamas gains from a ceasefire. At this point, most

792
00:41:12,360 --> 00:41:16,319
Speaker 11: of the infrastructure in Gaza has now been destroyed. It's

793
00:41:16,360 --> 00:41:20,279
Speaker 11: not clear that that that Hamas is suffering any more

794
00:41:20,360 --> 00:41:24,320
Speaker 11: major costs. They have survived and they probably will survive,

795
00:41:24,920 --> 00:41:27,160
Speaker 11: so there's no real incentive for them at this point

796
00:41:27,760 --> 00:41:31,040
Speaker 11: to have any sort of ceasefire. I think the other

797
00:41:31,120 --> 00:41:33,840
Speaker 11: challenge that Israel faces and moving citizens back into the

798
00:41:33,880 --> 00:41:37,359
Speaker 11: North is just this idea of safety. If you're an

799
00:41:37,360 --> 00:41:40,040
Speaker 11: Israeli citizen, are you even if the war in Gaza ends,

800
00:41:40,040 --> 00:41:42,840
Speaker 11: do you feel safe going back until there's some sort

801
00:41:42,920 --> 00:41:47,680
Speaker 11: of resolution to the challenge that it faced from Hezbolah.

802
00:41:47,960 --> 00:41:51,000
Speaker 11: And I think that's why you see the Israeli government

803
00:41:51,080 --> 00:41:54,520
Speaker 11: really pushing this military solution or military action, is that

804
00:41:54,800 --> 00:41:57,560
Speaker 11: there has to be some event or change on the

805
00:41:57,600 --> 00:42:01,839
Speaker 11: northern front that gives is Israeli the confidence that they'll

806
00:42:01,880 --> 00:42:03,200
Speaker 11: be safe if they were to return.

807
00:42:05,080 --> 00:42:08,120
Speaker 4: Axios Jennifer is reporting that Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin

808
00:42:08,160 --> 00:42:11,080
Speaker 4: is postponing his trip to Israel planned for early next

809
00:42:11,080 --> 00:42:15,920
Speaker 4: week because of the escalation on Israel's border with Lebanon.

810
00:42:16,000 --> 00:42:19,040
Speaker 4: What's the US posture here? We had two very rare

811
00:42:19,160 --> 00:42:21,680
Speaker 4: moved I have two carrier strike groups in the region

812
00:42:22,040 --> 00:42:25,200
Speaker 4: as Israel was bracing for a retaliation that never arrived,

813
00:42:25,200 --> 00:42:26,680
Speaker 4: the second one from Iran.

814
00:42:26,800 --> 00:42:30,320
Speaker 7: How about now, Well.

815
00:42:30,200 --> 00:42:31,960
Speaker 11: The United States has made it clear from the start

816
00:42:32,000 --> 00:42:35,080
Speaker 11: that it supports Israel's right to defend itself and that

817
00:42:35,160 --> 00:42:38,520
Speaker 11: it would, you know, help Israel defend itself were there

818
00:42:38,560 --> 00:42:42,040
Speaker 11: to be an attack, especially from Iran. It's not clear

819
00:42:42,320 --> 00:42:45,040
Speaker 11: how they would necessarily respond to attack from Hasbal. I

820
00:42:45,080 --> 00:42:48,680
Speaker 11: think if Israel was facing an attack from ballistic missiles,

821
00:42:48,680 --> 00:42:51,120
Speaker 11: they might again as they did in April, intervene with

822
00:42:51,160 --> 00:42:53,799
Speaker 11: some air defense support, but I think that would be

823
00:42:53,840 --> 00:42:57,200
Speaker 11: the limit of it. So I'm not sure that necessarily

824
00:42:57,280 --> 00:43:00,680
Speaker 11: much changes from the US perspective. I think the urgency

825
00:43:00,719 --> 00:43:03,120
Speaker 11: in the Pentagon and in the White House to try

826
00:43:03,120 --> 00:43:06,520
Speaker 11: to avoid any sort of retaliation from either side is

827
00:43:07,160 --> 00:43:10,479
Speaker 11: very high right now. The question is you know whether

828
00:43:10,560 --> 00:43:13,719
Speaker 11: or not that can hold. I think Hesbala has really

829
00:43:13,800 --> 00:43:16,360
Speaker 11: very little incentive to ask late. They may want to retaliate,

830
00:43:16,719 --> 00:43:20,400
Speaker 11: but a larger war would be very damaging to the

831
00:43:20,480 --> 00:43:24,880
Speaker 11: Lebanese population broadly and could damage their political support. I

832
00:43:24,960 --> 00:43:27,520
Speaker 11: think the bigger question mark is what Israel does, and

833
00:43:27,600 --> 00:43:30,920
Speaker 11: we've seen since the start, since October seventh, that the

834
00:43:31,000 --> 00:43:35,840
Speaker 11: United States has very little influence over the Israeli political

835
00:43:35,880 --> 00:43:39,919
Speaker 11: and military decision making, So I think that's the wildcard here.

836
00:43:41,760 --> 00:43:42,080
Speaker 8: All right.

837
00:43:42,160 --> 00:43:45,279
Speaker 6: Jennifer Kavanaugh from Defense Priorities, thank you so much with

838
00:43:45,360 --> 00:43:48,359
Speaker 6: the latest analysis from the Middle East, And of course, Joe,

839
00:43:48,440 --> 00:43:51,480
Speaker 6: you and I were having a conversation yesterday with someone

840
00:43:51,520 --> 00:43:54,000
Speaker 6: who used to work for both the National Security Council

841
00:43:54,040 --> 00:43:56,800
Speaker 6: and the National Economic Council at the White House, Jennifer Harris,

842
00:43:56,800 --> 00:43:58,799
Speaker 6: and we talked to her on the heels of a

843
00:43:58,840 --> 00:44:02,800
Speaker 6: FED rape about inflationary risks that still may be present,

844
00:44:02,840 --> 00:44:04,920
Speaker 6: and part of what she spoke about was the inflationary

845
00:44:05,000 --> 00:44:06,799
Speaker 6: risk that could be emanating from the Middle East if

846
00:44:06,840 --> 00:44:09,480
Speaker 6: you do see an escalation of conflict and potentially a

847
00:44:09,520 --> 00:44:11,360
Speaker 6: disruption to energy flows as a result.

848
00:44:15,000 --> 00:44:18,200
Speaker 4: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make

849
00:44:18,200 --> 00:44:21,719
Speaker 4: sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify.

850
00:44:21,280 --> 00:44:23,319
Speaker 8: Or wherever you get your podcasts, and

851
00:44:23,400 --> 00:44:26,000
Speaker 4: You can find us live every weekday from Washington, DC

852
00:44:26,160 --> 00:44:28,840
Speaker 4: at Noontimeeastern at Bloomberg dot com.