Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to Betting Pros. It's time to place
Speaker 1: your bets. It is me JOEYP Joe Pizipia and this
Speaker 1: is BP NFL. It's time to look ahead to the
Speaker 1: best bets for week four in the NFL. We're still
Speaker 1: in the early stages, still learning a lot about the
Speaker 1: teams and certainly a lot to glean from week three.
Speaker 1: It's a lot of upsets, a lot of things that
Speaker 1: maybe we did not see coming. But this time I
Speaker 1: think we have a good idea of what to expect
Speaker 1: in week four and help we break it down, of
Speaker 1: course is the Undertaker, Andrew Erickson and Terrell Furman Junior.
Speaker 1: And of course for all of you hanging out with us,
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Speaker 1: trial on the upgrade screen. It can't possibly upgrade anymore
Speaker 1: than my co hosts here, So we're just gonna jump
Speaker 1: into things here right away. To Ralph Furman, let's start
Speaker 1: with the Steelers. It's a game that Andrew Erics and
Speaker 1: I already jumped on early. In case you missed the
Speaker 1: look Ahead show, It's on the YouTube channels on the
Speaker 1: podcast weed go back, listen and watch. Andrew and I
Speaker 1: jumped on this one right away. But I want to
Speaker 1: hear your thoughts as the three and oh Steelers bring
Speaker 1: Justin Fields into down to face the Indianapolis Colts.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I'm on the same side as you all
Speaker 2: in that aspect of it is Tomlin. It's a short
Speaker 2: a short spread, it means a close game, and Tomlin
Speaker 2: in close games is good money. But I decided for
Speaker 2: the people, I might as well give out an extra
Speaker 2: bit something else that I like, so the people always
Speaker 2: have extra sweat so under forty in this game, because ah,
Speaker 2: I think that once we start getting into the thirties
Speaker 2: of the totals, people start to say, oh, that's kind
Speaker 2: of lote. We need to hop in on the over.
Speaker 2: We need to be contrarian here, and this is not
Speaker 2: the spot to do it. In fact, both of these
Speaker 2: two teams are five and one to the under at
Speaker 2: this number this season combined, so there's nothing here. Anthony
Speaker 2: Richardson probably might not be a good quarterback. Like, there's
Speaker 2: a possible real situation and if I know that I
Speaker 2: can get to the goal line and potentially walk away
Speaker 2: with zero points because Anthony Richardson wants to lob the
Speaker 2: ball up and just let anybody go up there and
Speaker 2: get it, then absolutely I want in on the under
Speaker 2: in that situation. Justin Fields has struggled to finish drives
Speaker 2: over the course of the season. I'm not going to
Speaker 2: hold him from that very very real criticism that they're having.
Speaker 2: But it's this defense, TJ. Watt, and this defense keeps
Speaker 2: them in the game every single time. And I'm one
Speaker 2: hundred percent going to back that. I don't think it's
Speaker 2: going to be a lot of points. Score is forty.
Speaker 2: I think it's going to be closer to thirty. So yes,
Speaker 2: I'm all in on the under forty.
Speaker 1: I don't remember who said it with me. It might
Speaker 1: have been Bogman, it might have been you Erickson do
Speaker 1: a lot of shows with a lot of people. But
Speaker 1: the conversation was what Anthony Richardson needs is reps. But unfortunately,
Speaker 1: right now it's those hard reps where you're just making
Speaker 1: a ton of mistakes and things aren't going well. And
Speaker 1: it's funny because at the other end of the game
Speaker 1: you got Justin Field, who is finally in a situation
Speaker 1: it feels like where things are going in the right way.
Speaker 1: You see the completion percentage go up. You see like
Speaker 1: every week he seems to get a little bit more confident,
Speaker 1: a little bit further removed from the PTSD of playing
Speaker 1: for the Bears. Richardson's so dangerous, Andrew that any moment
Speaker 1: he can make a play. But you and I have
Speaker 1: been on the Steelers since Monday morning. I'm still on
Speaker 1: the Steelers. Are you still on the Steelers? Andrew? Yeah?
Speaker 3: Because the Steelers are still minus one, still can get
Speaker 3: minus one and a half.
Speaker 1: Right.
Speaker 3: I thought we was talking about how this line was
Speaker 3: going to move to Steelers minus three, and at least
Speaker 3: what I've seen is it's not moved yet. It's still
Speaker 3: minus one and a half. So I still like the value.
Speaker 3: And this is about being right, not about giving more
Speaker 3: and more picks. I want to be right on this show,
Speaker 3: so I'm just gonna continue to back the Steelers at
Speaker 3: minus one and a half. Look talking about how good
Speaker 3: the Steelers are on the road twelve and six against
Speaker 3: the spread in their last eighteen road games, five and
Speaker 3: four against the spread and the money line on the
Speaker 3: road since the start of last season. And the one
Speaker 3: thing that going back to last year was Shane Steichen
Speaker 3: and this Colts team, they don't win when they're not favored.
Speaker 3: They don't they don't win these games. So when they're
Speaker 3: the underdog, they lose the game. You look at Colts games,
Speaker 3: the favorites have won fourteen of the colts last fifteen games.
Speaker 3: So they're not the team that you want to back
Speaker 3: as an underdog, even though they're playing at home. And
Speaker 3: going back to Richardson, he leads the NFL and turnover
Speaker 3: worthy play rate. You know who ranks first in that
Speaker 3: in terms of the least amount of turner over worthy
Speaker 3: plays is Justin Fields. So again, it's way easier to
Speaker 3: not press when you're winning in games and when you're
Speaker 3: having leads. They don't need Justin Fields to be a superhero,
Speaker 3: but that's what they need with Anthony Richardson right now
Speaker 3: because their defense can't get off the field and I
Speaker 3: can't stop anybody, especially the runs. So I look at
Speaker 3: this matchup and you have the most the team that
Speaker 3: wants to run the ball more than anything else against
Speaker 3: the league's worst run defense with the Colts, so minus
Speaker 3: one and a half, when Justin Fields doesn't even have
Speaker 3: to do that much, and you're putting so much on
Speaker 3: Anthony Bridger. He has to be superman in this game
Speaker 3: for the Colts to win. So I just like the
Speaker 3: Steelers so much in this spot.
Speaker 1: I think the line hasn't moved because of the health
Speaker 1: of the backfield of the Steelers. I mean, I'm just
Speaker 1: gonna put it more the line because the offensive line
Speaker 1: as well. Like I think those two combinations, and I
Speaker 1: think there's rightfully so a little bit of panic in
Speaker 1: the marketplace, but I don't see it being enough where
Speaker 1: I'm concerned that Tom and the Steelers can't go in
Speaker 1: there and win this game by a field goal easily. Like,
Speaker 1: That's That's where I'm at with it. So I think
Speaker 1: that's why the line hasn't moved is the injuries have
Speaker 1: kept it close enough where people are like, oh, maybe
Speaker 1: there's some value here, you know with the you know
Speaker 1: home dogs here Indianapolis, you know, playmaking ability all that.
Speaker 1: But I get that sense that's where things are at, Terrell.
Speaker 1: Let's get to a big game here between the Vikings
Speaker 1: and the Greeners. Now, the Vikings have handled their business
Speaker 1: in green Bay the last couple of years. That was
Speaker 1: with Kirk cousin Zoe. Now you're getting Sam Darnold and
Speaker 1: look they're three to zero. The Packers have done everything
Speaker 1: you could have asked for them to do with Malik
Speaker 1: Willis these last couple of weeks, winning both games. I mean,
Speaker 1: you can't be happier than Matt Lafloor right now. And
Speaker 1: the way that this team has performed, they did not
Speaker 1: crumble under that situation. The road game didn't matter. They
Speaker 1: showed up. So what's your take on this game here?
Speaker 1: How do you want to approach it? Because I know
Speaker 1: you've got it. Earmark as one of your favorites of
Speaker 1: the week.
Speaker 2: Yeah, the Brian floor Is Revenge Tour is continuing long.
Speaker 2: We made stops on the Revenge Tour. It kicked off
Speaker 2: in Miami a few years ago, and then we delayed,
Speaker 2: and we delayed, and we delayed. We had pitt stop
Speaker 2: over in Pittsburgh and then delayed, delayed, delay. But now
Speaker 2: Houston gone, don't worry about them, say it, Fran, get
Speaker 2: out of here, MVP. Yeah right, I'm gonna show you
Speaker 2: a defense. My scheme is crazy, right, Yeah, I'm gonna
Speaker 2: show you a crazy scheme. All right. And then I mean,
Speaker 2: well New York was easy. He didn't even have to
Speaker 2: try there, he didn't even have.
Speaker 1: To show up. He didn't also, so.
Speaker 2: Why am I thinking he's gonna do anything like Matt Lafleur.
Speaker 2: If you make Malik Willis look better than c. J.
Speaker 2: Stroud and Rock Perty and I won't even mention the
Speaker 2: third quarterbacks name against this Vikings defense, then you're you
Speaker 2: know what, You're the quarterback whisper. I'll go ahead and
Speaker 2: anoint you the quarterback whisper. You did it. But as
Speaker 2: of right now, Brian Flores got called a bully by
Speaker 2: Tua and said that he was hurt into his feelings
Speaker 2: while he was his coach, and now Brian Flores is like,
Speaker 2: all right, now, I got to prove to the league
Speaker 2: who I am as a defensive coordinator and put it
Speaker 2: on every single young rookie like he's absolutely he's got
Speaker 2: them flustered. C J. Stroud was an amazing quarterback last year,
Speaker 2: and he looked like he didn't even know what to
Speaker 2: do against a.
Speaker 1: Guy who's performed against the Blitz this year. And what
Speaker 1: he puts like sixty seven percent at the time last week,
Speaker 1: I think I saw that number was insane, and yes,
Speaker 1: it was like, you know what, I don't care. I'm
Speaker 1: just going to keep bringing the pressure. And he brought
Speaker 1: from a lot of different places too, which was very
Speaker 1: cool to see. We bring in Aaron Jones, who wanted
Speaker 1: to be back here in Green Bay. He wanted to
Speaker 1: stay in Green Bay. Green Bay didn't want him back.
Speaker 1: He was forced out. He didn't want to go to Minnesota.
Speaker 1: He wanted to stay in Green Bay. I think this
Speaker 1: is the Aaron Jones revenge game. I think they're going
Speaker 1: to run the ball really well. Sam Darnold is going
Speaker 1: to do enough, but that defense is going to steal
Speaker 1: the show. I think Milik Willis is going.
Speaker 2: To look like who everybody thought Milik Willis was going
Speaker 2: to look like when he first got to Green Bay.
Speaker 2: And now, like, I think there's a coach on the
Speaker 2: other side who has taken players who I in the
Speaker 2: beginning of the season didn't think would make a great defense,
Speaker 2: but he's coaching up an amazing scheme. This is all
Speaker 2: about the Vikings defense. For me, I think that the
Speaker 2: Packers aren't gonna be able to move the football. The
Speaker 2: Vikings are going to do enough and get this winning
Speaker 2: Green Bay.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I like where your heads at And I kind
Speaker 1: of think the same way. And look, I'm old enough
Speaker 1: to remember Brian Flores as a player, and I know
Speaker 1: what kind of intensity that dude brings. And I remember
Speaker 1: him as an assistant on Patriots, remember him all the
Speaker 1: way through, And I think this is a great opportunity
Speaker 1: here for him to re establish himself in that market.
Speaker 1: I'd like to see him get another look as a
Speaker 1: head coach, because I do think you got a raw
Speaker 1: deal in Miami. All right, let's get to the next
Speaker 1: one on our list, ericson what do you have as
Speaker 1: your second pick here? For this game that may or
Speaker 1: may not be played this weekend too. Just want to
Speaker 1: put that out there, depending on the weather of how
Speaker 1: things are going here.
Speaker 3: Well, if they don't play, that means they don't score
Speaker 3: any points. So that mays that means the under is.
Speaker 1: Kind of hit.
Speaker 3: So Tampa Bay filled out.
Speaker 1: There's a moment of zen everybody watching the show today.
Speaker 3: Tampa Bay Philadelphia under forty four and a half points.
Speaker 3: I'm following the trends here, looking at the Eagles, what
Speaker 3: they've done on the road, their last six road games
Speaker 3: gone under the total. Look at their last twelve three
Speaker 3: and nine towards the over on the road in Tampa
Speaker 3: Bay traditionally has been a team that you don't score
Speaker 3: a lot of points at home, average fewer than thirty
Speaker 3: five points total at home since the beginning of last year,
Speaker 3: two and eight record toward the over. So I like
Speaker 3: the trends pointing to these two teams playing towards the under.
Speaker 3: When you're having the Eagles on the road and the
Speaker 3: Buccaneers playing at home. The Buccaneers traditionally have a very
Speaker 3: good red zone defense, so they don't let teams score touchdowns,
Speaker 3: they don't let them convert when they drive down the field.
Speaker 3: You also have the Eagles without a lot of their
Speaker 3: top playmakers. A. J. Brown is probably not gonna play
Speaker 3: in this game. DeVante Smith has a concussion. Lane Johnson
Speaker 3: has a concussion. We talk about Lane Johnson when he's
Speaker 3: off on and off the field, the splits and how
Speaker 3: good Jalen Hurts is with Lane Johnson. Lane Johnson didn't
Speaker 3: play much of last week. What happened to the Eagles offense?
Speaker 3: Wasn't there?
Speaker 1: Right? They didn't. They don't.
Speaker 3: They're not nearly as efficient when he doesn't play. So again,
Speaker 3: not so sure exactly when these guys will clear the
Speaker 3: concussion protocol. But I just like the under overall in
Speaker 3: this game. I don't see these two offenses converging in Oh,
Speaker 3: they're gonna be super explosive. Baker Mayfield is taking the
Speaker 3: highest sack to pressure rate in the NFL. So it's
Speaker 3: not even his offensive line's fault half the time. It's
Speaker 3: when he's getting pressured. He's just taking sacks. Sacks, kill
Speaker 3: drives and kill points to score. So I like the
Speaker 3: under here. Again, what is I haven't seen the weather reports, Joe,
Speaker 3: so can you just kind of fill me in?
Speaker 1: Well? We're talking about the hurricane coming in here through.
Speaker 1: You know, it's supposed touchdown at some point there in
Speaker 1: the Florida coast area, So it all depends on when
Speaker 1: it hits land, how long it says, and all that stuff.
Speaker 1: But if I'm the Eagles, I'm begging for this storm
Speaker 1: because I've got no Devanta Smith, I've got no Aj Brown.
Speaker 1: I'd rather be inconvenienced later in the year and try
Speaker 1: to make up this game somehow and see if maybe
Speaker 1: there's a situation where you know, the stars align and
Speaker 1: you play this team later on. You're playing at your
Speaker 1: worst health right now, so again it's soon to know
Speaker 1: about that. A lot of speculation as of us recording this,
Speaker 1: so just stay on top of things, and that's why
Speaker 1: you set the line alerts too. Make sure you see
Speaker 1: how things are moving too, because if they are going
Speaker 1: to push through and the weather is an issue regardless,
Speaker 1: but it's okay for them to play, that could change
Speaker 1: the total a little bit too in terms of what
Speaker 1: that number is you might get. So set your line
Speaker 1: alerts when you're on the VP app for this game,
Speaker 1: if you're in on it this week, and while you're
Speaker 1: at it, join our discord, bettingpros dot Com, slash Chat.
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Speaker 1: win some free stuff. All right, Sorell, Let's go to
Speaker 1: one of the games has got one of the biggest
Speaker 1: totals on the week. It's the Arizona Cardinals and the
Speaker 1: Washington Commanders. Now this one looks like a fun, wide
Speaker 1: open athletic contest. How are you approaching it?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm going ahead and I'm going to back the
Speaker 2: Come on now, the Arizona Cardinals. I'm laying three and
Speaker 2: a half. We all watched Monday night, and I think
Speaker 2: the best part of the doubleheader on Monday night is
Speaker 2: the stagger at start time, because after whoever was still
Speaker 2: watching that Bills and JAG's Gabe at that point. Kudos
Speaker 2: to you, by the way, if you were still watching
Speaker 2: at the end of the game, you came over and
Speaker 2: you watched Jaydon Daniels win that game. And now everybody's
Speaker 2: drinking the kool Aid. I mean kool Aid is at
Speaker 2: an all time high. It's a whole pound of sugar
Speaker 2: in there, stirred up. They actually took two packets and
Speaker 2: made like a strawberry lemonade. Instead of just doing the
Speaker 2: one strawberry or just maybe a peach or lemonade, they
Speaker 2: mixed two together, put all the sugar in it, and
Speaker 2: stirred it up. It's actually a couple of sugar particles
Speaker 2: still sitting at the end. They're drinking it. They're all
Speaker 2: drinking it and I one hundred percent agree. I get it.
Speaker 2: He's really really good. This is a road spot after
Speaker 2: a big Monday night football win on a short week
Speaker 2: with Dan Quinn at head coach and Johnathan Cannon. I
Speaker 2: don't know if you guys remember, but John think and
Speaker 2: kind of ran through the NFC East last year. I
Speaker 2: mean he lost the most important game against my New
Speaker 2: York Football Giants and Daniel Jones of course, but other
Speaker 2: than that, Eagles Wentz gave them an L, Cowboys gave
Speaker 2: them an L. With Josh Dobbs like, I think this
Speaker 2: is a very very good spot where a Gannon is
Speaker 2: going to do what he's done coach up a really
Speaker 2: really good team against the NFC East, a former division
Speaker 2: that he's been in as a defensive coordinator for the Eagles,
Speaker 2: and Kyler Murray is going to go out there and
Speaker 2: give Cliff Kingsbury a piece of his mind. This is
Speaker 2: your fault, Cliff, this is your fault. We are all
Speaker 2: at this position because of you, Cliff, because of you,
Speaker 2: So you know what. I think Kyler Murray is going
Speaker 2: to show out. I think that defense is going to
Speaker 2: have a good day. I think Commander's role. Give me
Speaker 2: the three and a half points for sure.
Speaker 1: All right, let's stay out West a little bit here,
Speaker 1: and let's go with the Chargers and the Kansas in
Speaker 1: Chiefs spread that we talked about quite a bit. We
Speaker 1: talked about Andrew on Monday. Where this line may or
Speaker 1: may not go depending on the injuries. I'm in anticipating too,
Speaker 1: this might be the time to pounce on some Travis
Speaker 1: Kelce props because his all time stats against the Chargers
Speaker 1: are all time great. If there's going to be a
Speaker 1: breakout game, this is it. And if it's not, then
Speaker 1: it ain't ever coming. So where are you at currently
Speaker 1: with this game? How are you approaching it now that
Speaker 1: you have a little bit more time to marinate on it.
Speaker 3: I just like the under in this game. I don't
Speaker 3: think both teams are game planning. Hey, we need to
Speaker 3: score thirty points. The Chiefs haven't even been close to
Speaker 3: The Chiefs have been a team that has been hitting unders.
Speaker 3: That's the team that you look at Mahomes and you think,
Speaker 3: oh man, high flying scoring offense. He ranks dead last
Speaker 3: in the NFL and average s deps of target. He
Speaker 3: is I don't want to say it, but he's turned
Speaker 3: into a checkdown king, at least through three weeks of
Speaker 3: the NFL's Eeason. That's what he's doing. He's just checking
Speaker 3: the ball down and Rushi Rice that is the offensive
Speaker 3: game plan, and running the ball with one of their
Speaker 3: ten different running backs that they're using, maybe Kareem Hunt
Speaker 3: this week. So I just like the under Overall, the
Speaker 3: Chargers are three and zero towards the end of the season.
Speaker 3: The Chiefs are two and one towards the over But
Speaker 3: I just don't see the offensive firepower with the Chiefs.
Speaker 3: Seven of the chiefs last ten games have gone under
Speaker 3: the total nine to the last twelve. Since the start
Speaker 3: of twenty twenty three, the Chiefs is not allowed a
Speaker 3: team to score twenty seven points against them, so their
Speaker 3: defense has been solid. What do we expect from the
Speaker 3: Chargers offense without their two starting tackles? Potentially I expect
Speaker 3: Justin Herbert to play this matchup, but I think it's, hey,
Speaker 3: let's give the ball to JK. Dobbins twenty five times
Speaker 3: and hope he rips off a big run. You know,
Speaker 3: whether it happens or not remains to be seen. But
Speaker 3: that doesn't tell me or suggest to me that, oh,
Speaker 3: there's going to be points scored in bunches in this
Speaker 3: particular matchup. So I really like the under here even
Speaker 3: at forty.
Speaker 1: All right, let's move on to the next bet that
Speaker 1: the guys have number four for everybody. Let's talk about
Speaker 1: the Broncos. Terrell, how are you approaching this game for
Speaker 1: them here against the New York Jets where Look, I'm
Speaker 1: in on the Jets side of this one, but I
Speaker 1: want to hear your case for Denver because I think
Speaker 1: bon Nick's running upgainst this defense is going to be
Speaker 1: a little bit of a different day at the offense
Speaker 1: than what happened last week against Tampa. But you sell me,
Speaker 1: sell me on the Broncos side of this game with
Speaker 1: the points.
Speaker 2: Well, did you see last week? That's what happens when
Speaker 2: Sean p gets to they When Sean Payton gets to
Speaker 2: week three and week four, his teams just figure it out.
Speaker 2: They just figure it out and they go on through
Speaker 2: the season. And so I think this is another situation
Speaker 2: where his team went on the road and what was
Speaker 2: a horrible spot going to Florida, hot weather road spot
Speaker 2: for your rookie quarterback, and they absolutely dominated this Tampa
Speaker 2: Bay Bucks team. And now we come back. We saw
Speaker 2: what happened on Thursday night, and everybody's back on the Jets.
Speaker 2: But I don't think not so fast, because this is
Speaker 2: still the Petty Bowl. This is still the petty Bowl
Speaker 2: between Hackett and Peyton, and I think that this is
Speaker 2: still has a lot more to give. Last year the
Speaker 2: Jets got to win thirty one to twenty one. Hackett
Speaker 2: got his revenge. I think this is Peyton's turn. That's
Speaker 2: another big angle for me. I like Peyton at this
Speaker 2: point of the season. I like the fact that the
Speaker 2: Jets are going to London next week. In fact, teams
Speaker 2: who are on the look ahead to London and laying
Speaker 2: more than four points start twelve and eighteen ats. So
Speaker 2: this is a really really good spot that I think
Speaker 2: that the defense is really going to be the show here.
Speaker 2: I seen this Jets team play a really good defense
Speaker 2: in the San Francisco forty nine ers couldn't move the football.
Speaker 2: Seeing him against the Tennessee Titans couldn't move the football,
Speaker 2: I think, here, right here, this Jet, this Broncos defense
Speaker 2: with Patrick shirtsand is going to lock down Garrett Wilson.
Speaker 2: I'm sitting him this week in fantasy Hey, the guy
Speaker 2: that's been all talking about Garrett Wilson all off season
Speaker 2: for the past ten off seasons. I'm sitting him this
Speaker 2: week because Patrick Shirtsan is a problem and I think
Speaker 2: he's going to be an issue, and I think that
Speaker 2: they're not going to be effective running the ball the
Speaker 2: same and so I think this is a lower scoring
Speaker 2: Denver keeps it close game. This is a spot that
Speaker 2: Sean Payton goes out there and coaches this team to
Speaker 2: a three point loss.
Speaker 1: I don't think you should sit Garret Wilson, but you
Speaker 1: need to make some adjustments to your lineup because chances
Speaker 1: are I do agree he's gonna get.
Speaker 2: No I sat him for Deontay Johnson.
Speaker 1: Well, I mean if you have Deontay Johns, like if
Speaker 1: it's a two wide receiver League ten team and you
Speaker 1: got a lot of depth, Okay, that's cool. Same, I
Speaker 1: just st look bad. He's gonna be banishing Shadow Realm
Speaker 1: this week. I do agree with that. I love Braylan
Speaker 1: Allen props this week too. Based on that. I think
Speaker 1: here's the Braylan Allen just continue to work in this
Speaker 1: offense because you are gonna lose Garrett Wilson. You'll get
Speaker 1: Lazard props. I don't want to say Mike Williams props
Speaker 1: out loud. I think that's a dangerous thing to say.
Speaker 1: But Braylan Allen, look for him to continue to be
Speaker 1: involved in that offense. I'd be looking for him. Let's
Speaker 1: continue on here, Andrew Erickson. Let's talk about a huge
Speaker 1: Marque matchup the Ravens and the Bills. So the Ravens
Speaker 1: got their w on the road against Dallas. The three
Speaker 1: and zero Bills and MVP leader Josh Allen come to town.
Speaker 1: What are your thoughts on this contest?
Speaker 3: Underdog Josh Allen, sign me up. It worked in Week
Speaker 3: two against the Miami Dolphins. I'm going to go right
Speaker 3: back to it. Josh Allen eighteen nine to two against
Speaker 3: the spread as an underdog sixty five percent, Lamar Jackson
Speaker 3: as a favorite forty eight percent against the spread. Who's
Speaker 3: the MVP right three weeks in? That's the guy? His
Speaker 3: is the underdog here it is. I don't really care
Speaker 3: that they're playing in Baltimore. P homefield advantage seems to
Speaker 3: be a is overrated in my opinion. Again, I can't
Speaker 3: understand where the line is coming from. But do you
Speaker 3: think Josh Allen is, Oh no, We're going into this
Speaker 3: hostile environment against this Baltimore Ravens defense that almost gave
Speaker 3: up the win to the Dallas Cowboys last week. They
Speaker 3: didn't shout them out what happened they you know, So
Speaker 3: I think that the Bills.
Speaker 1: Here for me. Baltimore.
Speaker 3: Look, this is what they do a lot of the time,
Speaker 3: especially when they play at home again, eleven to five
Speaker 3: on the money line as home favorites, six and eleven
Speaker 3: against the spread as home favorites. They don't set the
Speaker 3: expectations when they played home a lot of the times.
Speaker 3: So I just love Josh Allen here as a road
Speaker 3: underdog again. Talked about how it worked in Week two,
Speaker 3: not how I thought it was gonna work out against Miami,
Speaker 3: but even before the two injury, the Bills were gonna
Speaker 3: win that game, so I felt very confident about that.
Speaker 3: So I'm just going right back to Josh Allen, the
Speaker 3: MVP front runner as an underdog before we.
Speaker 1: Get to the upset special of the week. Finally got
Speaker 1: one last week, ring the bell, Let's get to the
Speaker 1: last pick of the guys. Let's start with Bengals and
Speaker 1: Panthers here for you. Torell because man Bengals back up
Speaker 1: against the wall would be the understatement of the century,
Speaker 1: and the Panther playing fast and loose with the red rifle.
Speaker 1: So who comes up here? What's your approach to this game?
Speaker 2: So sometimes when you come out here and you give
Speaker 2: a bad pick, like Bengals laying seven, you have to
Speaker 2: go back to the drawing board and you have to
Speaker 2: really look inward, a lot of inward, looking into yourself
Speaker 2: about what did I do wrong in that pick, because
Speaker 2: the Bengals weren't in that game to ever be laying seven,
Speaker 2: and I realized I should have just faded the defense
Speaker 2: and took the over man. What in the world, like,
Speaker 2: come on, this is the red rifle at his revenge game.
Speaker 2: It's Charlotte. Of course, I need to find a way
Speaker 2: to back the red rifle, and I don't want to
Speaker 2: take the passers, so I'm gonna expect them to score points.
Speaker 2: And even if they don't score points, there's a possibility
Speaker 2: that Joe Burrow is really really pissed off. His scores
Speaker 2: close to forty on this Panther's defense. So I feel
Speaker 2: pretty safe either way. Whether this is a blowout by
Speaker 2: the Bengals or whether the red Rifle comes in here
Speaker 2: and says, I'm about to put two three touchdowns on
Speaker 2: your head Cincinnati because I didn't like how things ended up.
Speaker 2: He's been talking all week and when Bryce got bitched,
Speaker 2: he said, Hey, I remember when I got bitched in Cincinnati,
Speaker 2: and I didn't like it, and so I'm just trying
Speaker 2: to coach him up like that. That's been heavy on
Speaker 2: the mind recently. He's been taken back and he's been
Speaker 2: triggered to that place when he got bitched in Cincinnati,
Speaker 2: and now all those emotions are coming back when he's
Speaker 2: got Cincinnati at home this week. Look, man, oh yeah,
Speaker 2: I think the totals right over over total the right way.
Speaker 1: But man, you know, trying to look for the Bengals
Speaker 1: to figure things out here at that defense, it's just
Speaker 1: been so bad. It's it's tough. It's really, I mean,
Speaker 1: everything in my soul says the Bengals have to win
Speaker 1: this football game, but with the way that defense is played,
Speaker 1: I just don't know if we can get there. Yeah.
Speaker 2: They they literally killed survivor injuries three of the.
Speaker 1: Fourth single handedly killing hopes and juries had killing killing.
Speaker 3: This isn't fun.
Speaker 2: I couldn't. I couldn't imagine taking the Bengals ever in
Speaker 2: Survivor again. Like, to be honest, those two games like
Speaker 2: might have quite now granted I did pick the Bats
Speaker 2: and game, still, those two games might have quite possibly
Speaker 2: ruined the Bengals ever going and Survivor for me.
Speaker 1: Fair enough, all right, let's get after your last one here.
Speaker 1: Another big matchup the Seahawks and the Lions. We keep
Speaker 1: saying every week, I can't wait to see the Seahawks
Speaker 1: really tested. And then we thought maybe last week that
Speaker 1: would happen with the Dolphins. We were wrong. It did
Speaker 1: not happen. Dolphins just did not take care of enough,
Speaker 1: horribly wrong. And I'll tell you what, I'll take the
Speaker 1: all on this one too. But the defense is just
Speaker 1: so bad there. I mean, they just got to figure
Speaker 1: out they can't stop anybody. But it's funny, Andrew, I'm
Speaker 1: on the Seattle side of this game. We talked about
Speaker 1: this one on Monday. I'm not sure where you're at
Speaker 1: on it. I was very gung hose Seattle here because
Speaker 1: Detroit so far to me, has been just a little
Speaker 1: sluggish with all these expectations so far. Where do you
Speaker 1: stand as now we're coming to the end of the
Speaker 1: week as we're evaluating expectations.
Speaker 3: Talk about expectations. Seattle's one and two against the spread
Speaker 3: despite facing bon Nicks, the Patriots who they had to
Speaker 3: beat in overtime, and who do the plastic Oh yeah,
Speaker 3: Skyle Thompson and Miami Dolphins. Where they did cover, where
Speaker 3: they did cover, set.
Speaker 2: Close the line, they actually tied, They actually pushed one
Speaker 2: of those if you go.
Speaker 3: They have hardly faced a Junger Knaut schedule to become
Speaker 3: three and l at this point. And I think that
Speaker 3: this is the classic case of Hey, this team, are
Speaker 3: they for real? This is their test game, and then
Speaker 3: what happens they get curbstomped when they play a team
Speaker 3: that had Super Bowl aspirations entering this season. I still
Speaker 3: think the Lions are the cream of the crop when
Speaker 3: it comes to the NFC. I know things have been
Speaker 3: a little bit bumpy for to start the year, but
Speaker 3: I just think Dan Campbell is gonna get his guys going.
Speaker 3: Mike McDonald in this defense has not been tested. I
Speaker 3: just really don't think they've been tested by any offense
Speaker 3: yet this season. Because of the teams that they have played,
Speaker 3: the Lions have so many ways that they can beat
Speaker 3: even if they don't have Sam Laporta. They can beat
Speaker 3: you with the run, they can beat you with the pass.
Speaker 3: They have great pass protection for Jared Goff playing at home.
Speaker 3: I just love the Lions in the spot to really
Speaker 3: have a dominant win and put the NFC on notice
Speaker 3: and make people think twice about, Hey, how good is Seattle. Actually,
Speaker 3: I think we're going to have a lot of takeaways
Speaker 3: after Monday Night. Team. It sucks because it's on Monday.
Speaker 3: We an't get to talk about it on the look Ahead, show.
Speaker 2: Any concern because and this is so funny because these
Speaker 2: teams are not in the same division. They played in
Speaker 2: Detroit the past two seasons, and Detroit has lost both games.
Speaker 2: Is there any like, I mean, I'm trying to play
Speaker 2: them so you don't have to, you know, I'm saying
Speaker 2: they've lost. They've lost both games, Like, and we're laying
Speaker 2: three and a half here. It just what if what
Speaker 2: if the Lions went by three?
Speaker 1: Look? Man, all I could what if this is a shootout?
Speaker 1: All I could tell you is this is definitely one
Speaker 1: of those games where it's range of outcomes and so far,
Speaker 1: what I'm learning about this season is one thing, which
Speaker 1: is whenever you see something like this where it seems like, yes,
Speaker 1: this is a game where the Lions should handle their
Speaker 1: business and take care of stuff here. They are theoretically
Speaker 1: the better football team. They have all the right pieces,
Speaker 1: all that stuff. So far, those situations have been very
Speaker 1: dicey the year. So I'm just gonna go with the
Speaker 1: early September trend. If this was November, I might feel
Speaker 1: differently about that game, because I think people are still
Speaker 1: learning who Seattle is. It's weird. It's almost giving the
Speaker 1: Seahawks an advantage where their little bit of unknown identity
Speaker 1: is still kind of creeping up on people. And I
Speaker 1: don't know, because of everything that ericson pointing out there,
Speaker 1: if we're at a point where people are, well, they're like, wow,
Speaker 1: the Seahawks. They beat the Patriots. Yeah, they beat the Broncos.
Speaker 1: Who cares? And I think that's dangerous And if the
Speaker 1: Lions are doing that, I think they might get in
Speaker 1: a bad spot. This week. We'll see, should be a
Speaker 1: good time once again. We'll come here and we'll own
Speaker 1: the w's and own all the l's. I want to
Speaker 1: talk about offset specials. That's what I want to talk
Speaker 1: about and whenever I see a team on the road
Speaker 1: that's an underdog that has the better coach and the
Speaker 1: better quarterback, well my ears, purcup. And this week it's
Speaker 1: the Rams plus one point forty on the money line
Speaker 1: against the Bears. Look, I'm not sold on the Bears
Speaker 1: at home. I understand that people want to make some
Speaker 1: arguments about Caleb Williams maybe starting to play a little better,
Speaker 1: all that whatever. That's fine. Bears defense has some moments. Okay, yeah, sure,
Speaker 1: that's cute. But we're talking about a Rams team that
Speaker 1: somehow rallied around Matthew Stafford and beat the San Francisco
Speaker 1: forty nine ers in a building that was a sea
Speaker 1: of red populated with forty nine er fans everywhere. It
Speaker 1: was basically a road game.
Speaker 2: I ate so much crap in the comments for the Rams.
Speaker 2: Pick oh man, oh man. I just hope the apology
Speaker 2: is as loud as the disrespect was. Nobody had faith
Speaker 2: in to close your eyes, specially nobody.
Speaker 1: So if you closed your eyes and you listened to Terrell,
Speaker 1: you did it, and it was certainly a close your
Speaker 1: eye special situation. Let me tell you, it was definitely
Speaker 1: that feeling, and I just don't get this. I just
Speaker 1: think the line is wrong. It's just straight up wrong here.
Speaker 1: I don't know why. Look, I get it, no Pookah,
Speaker 1: no Cooper Cup, I get all those things. But we're
Speaker 1: talking about what's the definition of advantage, better quarterback, better
Speaker 1: head coach? And that goes completely to the side of
Speaker 1: the Ram in this one. Give me the Rams to
Speaker 1: again find a way to win. Maybe it's another late comeback,
Speaker 1: but I just think they've got it in them. So
Speaker 1: that's my upset special. Give me the Rams this week
Speaker 1: and the parlay of the week. Let's take those Rams
Speaker 1: wherever we can get them on the money line, and
Speaker 1: let's go ahead and add them to the Pittsburgh Steelers,
Speaker 1: where the Boys and I are all at with that
Speaker 1: minus one and a half, and give me the Baltimore
Speaker 1: Ravens on the money line because I'm just gonna troll
Speaker 1: Andrew Erickson. You put those three things together, you get
Speaker 1: plus six point twenty six right now. So that's a
Speaker 1: great way of taking a look at the week. And
Speaker 1: if you want to take a look at what we're
Speaker 1: in on, a great way to do that is to
Speaker 1: follow us at Bettingpros dot com, slash Joe, slash Terrell
Speaker 1: and slash ericson that's the way to go. I think
Speaker 1: I was seven and one last week. Not bad, but
Speaker 1: I gotta keep the ball rolling. We gotta keep going here.
Speaker 1: So see what we're in on. Download the app, follow
Speaker 1: us and use the premium again. You're getting the upgrade
Speaker 1: for free. If you haven't used it, go ahead, give
Speaker 1: it a try and start betting smarter, not harder, and
Speaker 1: don't forget to subscribe to the Betting Pros YouTube channel
Speaker 1: We ring the bell to let goo dating a comment below,
Speaker 1: what's your favorite bet of Week four in the NFL.
Speaker 1: We want to hear from you. That'll do it for us,
Speaker 1: but the story of the game goes on for Terrell
Speaker 1: and Andrew. I'm Joey p. Well see you next time. Kids.
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