1 00:00:02,440 --> 00:00:06,800 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 2 00:00:11,640 --> 00:00:15,440 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along 3 00:00:15,480 --> 00:00:18,680 Speaker 2: with Lisa Bromwitz and Amrie Hordern. Join us each day 4 00:00:18,720 --> 00:00:22,280 Speaker 2: for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics 5 00:00:22,400 --> 00:00:24,920 Speaker 2: from our global headquarters in New York City. We are 6 00:00:24,920 --> 00:00:27,680 Speaker 2: live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from six to nine 7 00:00:27,720 --> 00:00:31,280 Speaker 2: am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or 8 00:00:31,320 --> 00:00:33,960 Speaker 2: anywhere else you listen, and as always on the Bloomberg 9 00:00:34,040 --> 00:00:38,000 Speaker 2: Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app. The payrolls report comes 10 00:00:38,000 --> 00:00:39,639 Speaker 2: in at three hundred and three thousand. It's a big 11 00:00:39,680 --> 00:00:43,040 Speaker 2: upside surprise again, two fourteen was the estimate. If you 12 00:00:43,080 --> 00:00:45,560 Speaker 2: work your way through the report, the unemployment rate comes 13 00:00:45,560 --> 00:00:48,160 Speaker 2: down to three point eight percent, down from three point nine. 14 00:00:48,440 --> 00:00:51,839 Speaker 2: Average AULIY earnings month over month zero point three, in 15 00:00:51,880 --> 00:00:54,720 Speaker 2: line with the estimate of zero point three. The equity 16 00:00:54,760 --> 00:00:56,680 Speaker 2: price action looks like this. We're positive a third of 17 00:00:56,680 --> 00:00:59,040 Speaker 2: one percent on the SMP. We'ret by zero point four 18 00:00:59,040 --> 00:01:01,840 Speaker 2: percent on the NASA. The bomb market price sanction, if 19 00:01:01,880 --> 00:01:04,120 Speaker 2: you switch on the board, looks a little something like this. 20 00:01:04,200 --> 00:01:06,240 Speaker 2: Yields up by seven basis points on a ten year 21 00:01:06,400 --> 00:01:08,479 Speaker 2: getting close to the four forty again after breaking through 22 00:01:08,520 --> 00:01:10,880 Speaker 2: that level earlier. On this week, the two year yield 23 00:01:10,920 --> 00:01:12,960 Speaker 2: high by four or five basis points, getting very close 24 00:01:12,959 --> 00:01:14,840 Speaker 2: to four seventy. And I'll give you a snapshot of 25 00:01:14,840 --> 00:01:17,039 Speaker 2: foreign exchange off the back of this. I'll make it simple. 26 00:01:17,280 --> 00:01:20,640 Speaker 2: Dollars stronger against absolutely everything in G ten. You're a 27 00:01:20,680 --> 00:01:23,440 Speaker 2: dollar at the moment, one away fifteen to break down 28 00:01:23,480 --> 00:01:24,920 Speaker 2: and react to some of this, some place to say 29 00:01:24,920 --> 00:01:27,080 Speaker 2: that joining us from black Rock is Jeff Rosenberg, and 30 00:01:27,160 --> 00:01:29,960 Speaker 2: joining us alongside him is Muhammad ol Area Mohamma. You've 31 00:01:29,959 --> 00:01:31,320 Speaker 2: had a bit of time to chew over this one. 32 00:01:31,480 --> 00:01:32,480 Speaker 2: What's your big takeaway? 33 00:01:32,800 --> 00:01:33,039 Speaker 3: John? 34 00:01:33,160 --> 00:01:37,679 Speaker 4: It is a job report that confirm US economic exceptionalism. 35 00:01:38,319 --> 00:01:42,360 Speaker 4: You're having a strong supply side, strong demand side. So 36 00:01:42,480 --> 00:01:44,679 Speaker 4: if you look at the economy, the economy continues to 37 00:01:44,720 --> 00:01:45,800 Speaker 4: benefit from. 38 00:01:45,640 --> 00:01:47,000 Speaker 3: The favorable supply shock. 39 00:01:47,680 --> 00:01:49,280 Speaker 4: If you look at the FED, that's not going to 40 00:01:49,360 --> 00:01:52,400 Speaker 4: change much what the Fed is thinking. And believe me 41 00:01:52,640 --> 00:01:56,600 Speaker 4: that the administration will be celebrating this report. So overall, 42 00:01:56,720 --> 00:01:59,200 Speaker 4: a very strong report that just confirms that the US 43 00:01:59,680 --> 00:02:02,800 Speaker 4: is an economic exception among the advanced economies. 44 00:02:02,920 --> 00:02:05,280 Speaker 2: Jeff Rosenberg, do you believe this labor market report is 45 00:02:05,280 --> 00:02:07,560 Speaker 2: a report this Federal Reserve can fully embrace. 46 00:02:07,840 --> 00:02:10,160 Speaker 5: Well, it can fully embrace it, but you know, it 47 00:02:10,240 --> 00:02:12,600 Speaker 5: is a little bit challenging around the timing issue. 48 00:02:12,600 --> 00:02:15,080 Speaker 6: I think the key thing in this report we. 49 00:02:15,000 --> 00:02:18,720 Speaker 5: Haven't talked about is labor force participation and its impact 50 00:02:19,080 --> 00:02:22,280 Speaker 5: offsetting some of the wage concerns. And I think that's 51 00:02:22,440 --> 00:02:24,480 Speaker 5: kind of the good news. Lisa, you asked why a 52 00:02:24,480 --> 00:02:26,760 Speaker 5: little bit of a more modest reaction out of the 53 00:02:27,240 --> 00:02:30,200 Speaker 5: bond market for such a headline beat, And I think 54 00:02:30,240 --> 00:02:32,919 Speaker 5: that's it is that you're seeing kind of the well, 55 00:02:32,960 --> 00:02:36,120 Speaker 5: it's a strong labor market, but the wage picture isn't, 56 00:02:36,160 --> 00:02:38,400 Speaker 5: at least in terms of what you see in the 57 00:02:38,919 --> 00:02:42,680 Speaker 5: print today, ticking up beyond expectation, so that relieves a 58 00:02:42,720 --> 00:02:44,239 Speaker 5: bit of fears. And then you look at that labor 59 00:02:44,280 --> 00:02:48,200 Speaker 5: force participation rate chicking up. That's good news for the 60 00:02:48,240 --> 00:02:48,800 Speaker 5: wage front. 61 00:02:49,080 --> 00:02:51,520 Speaker 1: Given all of that, though, Mohammad why cutt, I'm going 62 00:02:51,560 --> 00:02:53,359 Speaker 1: to go back to what Neil Kushkari was saying. Given 63 00:02:53,400 --> 00:02:55,079 Speaker 1: the fact that the US labor market seems to be 64 00:02:55,160 --> 00:02:58,160 Speaker 1: doing just great, what is the onus on the federal 65 00:02:58,200 --> 00:03:01,200 Speaker 1: reserve to ease policy that does seem like it's hampering 66 00:03:01,440 --> 00:03:02,160 Speaker 1: this economy. 67 00:03:02,639 --> 00:03:06,200 Speaker 4: It's because policy acts with a lag. These favorable supply 68 00:03:07,160 --> 00:03:10,160 Speaker 4: sharks are not going to last forever, and there are 69 00:03:10,200 --> 00:03:13,320 Speaker 4: signs of weakness elsewhere. So you've got to navigate this. 70 00:03:14,200 --> 00:03:16,360 Speaker 4: You know, you've heard me say this over and over again. 71 00:03:17,200 --> 00:03:19,600 Speaker 4: The mistake the FED will make, if it makes a mistake, 72 00:03:19,800 --> 00:03:24,400 Speaker 4: is being overly data dependent, becoming a play by play commentator, 73 00:03:24,800 --> 00:03:26,920 Speaker 4: and not looking through various things. 74 00:03:27,000 --> 00:03:28,120 Speaker 3: So you've got to look forward. 75 00:03:28,200 --> 00:03:32,040 Speaker 4: Yes, we're having a wonderful supply shock has a lot 76 00:03:32,080 --> 00:03:35,360 Speaker 4: to do with immigration, and that's why, as Jeff Wrighty says, 77 00:03:35,760 --> 00:03:39,520 Speaker 4: the wage numbers are restrained. They're still not low enough, 78 00:03:39,520 --> 00:03:44,000 Speaker 4: but they're restrained. But if you go forward six twelve months, 79 00:03:44,480 --> 00:03:47,920 Speaker 4: you've got to be conscious that a lot of what 80 00:03:48,000 --> 00:03:51,360 Speaker 4: has powered the US so far, including excess savings, is 81 00:03:51,400 --> 00:03:51,960 Speaker 4: going away. 82 00:03:52,360 --> 00:03:54,720 Speaker 1: Jeff, what's your take on that. The argument that Neil 83 00:03:54,760 --> 00:03:57,640 Speaker 1: Kashkari made yesterday, if the Minneapolis said, why cut rates 84 00:03:57,840 --> 00:03:59,960 Speaker 1: if you have robust economic data and a label more 85 00:04:00,000 --> 00:04:02,640 Speaker 1: mar that seems to be chugging along, especially if you 86 00:04:02,720 --> 00:04:06,720 Speaker 1: do have commodities inflation that people can afford to keep 87 00:04:06,760 --> 00:04:08,640 Speaker 1: paying because they are still employed. 88 00:04:08,800 --> 00:04:09,000 Speaker 2: Yeah. 89 00:04:09,240 --> 00:04:12,120 Speaker 5: I think it's about really the debate between what I 90 00:04:12,200 --> 00:04:14,840 Speaker 5: call and the market calls maintenance cuts to maintain the 91 00:04:14,880 --> 00:04:18,320 Speaker 5: degree of restrictedness. What Muhammad was talking about that you 92 00:04:18,360 --> 00:04:21,680 Speaker 5: don't want the lag in policy to eventually become too 93 00:04:21,760 --> 00:04:26,280 Speaker 5: restrictive by holding real interest rates at these high at 94 00:04:26,360 --> 00:04:29,400 Speaker 5: least relative to historical levels, and the threat that that 95 00:04:29,480 --> 00:04:32,600 Speaker 5: made down the road lead to more tightening than what 96 00:04:32,680 --> 00:04:36,039 Speaker 5: you would otherwise want. But that's different than saying we 97 00:04:36,120 --> 00:04:39,680 Speaker 5: need to calibrate the cuts to a slowdown. And I 98 00:04:39,720 --> 00:04:43,039 Speaker 5: think what Neil Kashgari is talking about is really pricing 99 00:04:43,080 --> 00:04:45,719 Speaker 5: out really what already happened in the bond market. We 100 00:04:45,760 --> 00:04:49,200 Speaker 5: came into the year pricing in seven cuts, we're now three, 101 00:04:49,640 --> 00:04:52,440 Speaker 5: maybe pushing down somewhere between two and three. 102 00:04:52,640 --> 00:04:54,280 Speaker 6: I still think that's. 103 00:04:53,960 --> 00:04:56,920 Speaker 5: Right in the sense of you want to have that insurance, 104 00:04:56,920 --> 00:05:00,400 Speaker 5: and this is a FED that is very much wedded 105 00:05:00,440 --> 00:05:03,360 Speaker 5: to trying to secure the gains of the soft landing. 106 00:05:03,520 --> 00:05:06,040 Speaker 2: Jeff, how dependable do you think this economic data is. 107 00:05:06,320 --> 00:05:08,720 Speaker 2: That's a subject we've revisited a few times over the 108 00:05:08,800 --> 00:05:10,520 Speaker 2: last few months. How dependable do you think it is? 109 00:05:10,760 --> 00:05:12,479 Speaker 6: Well, you know, it's really interesting. 110 00:05:12,640 --> 00:05:17,359 Speaker 5: The back dropped what's going on in the movement to 111 00:05:17,560 --> 00:05:21,360 Speaker 5: reprice away from seven cuts to three cuts is that 112 00:05:21,440 --> 00:05:25,799 Speaker 5: you had this debate between two big sources of data, 113 00:05:25,839 --> 00:05:28,560 Speaker 5: both for growth and for the labor market. On the 114 00:05:28,560 --> 00:05:31,520 Speaker 5: growth side, it was the debate between GDP and GDI. 115 00:05:32,120 --> 00:05:35,320 Speaker 5: GDI had been lagging the strength that was shown up 116 00:05:35,360 --> 00:05:37,360 Speaker 5: in GDP that gave a lot of people in the 117 00:05:37,360 --> 00:05:40,080 Speaker 5: market a lot of evidence that, hey, this economy is 118 00:05:40,120 --> 00:05:41,360 Speaker 5: a lot weaker than we thought. 119 00:05:41,400 --> 00:05:42,520 Speaker 6: What did we learn. 120 00:05:42,600 --> 00:05:48,240 Speaker 5: Most recently, GDI rose to GDP and validated the stronger story. Similarly, 121 00:05:48,400 --> 00:05:51,240 Speaker 5: on the labor market, you had the gap between the 122 00:05:51,240 --> 00:05:55,080 Speaker 5: household and the establishment survey and a lot of people saying, oh, 123 00:05:55,160 --> 00:05:59,320 Speaker 5: the establishment survey, the headlines is overstated, look at the 124 00:05:59,320 --> 00:06:00,479 Speaker 5: household weakness. 125 00:06:00,640 --> 00:06:01,799 Speaker 6: Well, now what we're. 126 00:06:01,640 --> 00:06:04,520 Speaker 5: Seeing, and that's the latest theme is no, it's the 127 00:06:04,520 --> 00:06:06,800 Speaker 5: immigration that's not being captured. 128 00:06:07,000 --> 00:06:08,839 Speaker 6: The labor market is much stronger. 129 00:06:08,960 --> 00:06:12,800 Speaker 5: So in both cases, with respect to alternative data, you 130 00:06:12,920 --> 00:06:15,880 Speaker 5: had a debate. That debate is pushing more on the 131 00:06:15,920 --> 00:06:18,680 Speaker 5: settle of the side of no, this is actually a 132 00:06:18,720 --> 00:06:21,320 Speaker 5: stronger economy than we thought, and that's what's validating this 133 00:06:21,440 --> 00:06:23,960 Speaker 5: kind of move to push back from seven cuts to 134 00:06:24,080 --> 00:06:25,159 Speaker 5: three or less cuts. 135 00:06:25,200 --> 00:06:27,040 Speaker 2: It's the supply side story. I think we all struggle 136 00:06:27,040 --> 00:06:28,800 Speaker 2: with Mohammed when you restart to think about it. What 137 00:06:29,240 --> 00:06:31,880 Speaker 2: the Federal Reserve is telling you is that basically, don't 138 00:06:31,880 --> 00:06:35,000 Speaker 2: worry about strong data like payrolls growth of three hundred 139 00:06:35,040 --> 00:06:37,560 Speaker 2: and three thousand, because it's not coming along with stronger 140 00:06:37,560 --> 00:06:40,160 Speaker 2: weight growth off the back of that. Because we're embracing 141 00:06:40,160 --> 00:06:43,040 Speaker 2: this big supply side phenomenon. At the same time, ihmbit, 142 00:06:43,040 --> 00:06:45,160 Speaker 2: they're also pointing to the labor market as evidence they 143 00:06:45,160 --> 00:06:49,360 Speaker 2: are sufficiently restrictive, and I struggle to reconcile the two things. 144 00:06:49,400 --> 00:06:51,520 Speaker 2: Can you reconcile the two things? How can you use 145 00:06:51,520 --> 00:06:55,040 Speaker 2: something as evidence of being sufficiently restrictive but also acknowledge 146 00:06:55,080 --> 00:06:57,279 Speaker 2: the majority of it is supply driven. 147 00:06:57,440 --> 00:07:00,920 Speaker 4: Because they're trying to have maximum optionality John, and that's 148 00:07:00,960 --> 00:07:03,400 Speaker 4: what they want. It's the same thing that led Chair 149 00:07:03,440 --> 00:07:07,120 Speaker 4: Pale at Stanford to say, on the one hand, the 150 00:07:07,160 --> 00:07:10,120 Speaker 4: inflation story has not changed after the harder than expected 151 00:07:10,160 --> 00:07:12,960 Speaker 4: prints in January February, But on the other hand, we 152 00:07:13,000 --> 00:07:15,280 Speaker 4: need better, we need more evidence that actually the inflation 153 00:07:15,320 --> 00:07:17,320 Speaker 4: story is what the inflation story, what we think the 154 00:07:17,360 --> 00:07:20,200 Speaker 4: inflation story is. Look, I would be doing the same thing. 155 00:07:20,280 --> 00:07:24,680 Speaker 4: They are trying to maintain optionality, and they are having 156 00:07:24,760 --> 00:07:28,920 Speaker 4: competing claims. Also, don't forget that the positive domestic supply 157 00:07:29,120 --> 00:07:34,520 Speaker 4: side story is countered by a very negative international supply 158 00:07:34,680 --> 00:07:37,280 Speaker 4: side story, so they've also got a balance these to 159 00:07:37,440 --> 00:07:37,960 Speaker 4: things out. 160 00:07:38,280 --> 00:07:40,760 Speaker 1: Mohammed, I obstruck by what you said a while back, 161 00:07:40,800 --> 00:07:42,400 Speaker 1: where you were saying that this is going to be 162 00:07:42,440 --> 00:07:44,840 Speaker 1: a federal reserve that ultimately will probably accept a two 163 00:07:44,880 --> 00:07:48,160 Speaker 1: points something inflation rate. If you take a look at 164 00:07:48,640 --> 00:07:51,679 Speaker 1: the preliminary bond market action after this report, and understanding 165 00:07:51,720 --> 00:07:53,800 Speaker 1: that the first reaction is always the right one, this 166 00:07:53,840 --> 00:07:56,160 Speaker 1: bigger cell office in the long end, this is basically 167 00:07:56,240 --> 00:07:58,480 Speaker 1: a kind of confirmation that this market believes that the 168 00:07:58,520 --> 00:08:00,600 Speaker 1: Fed will make good on its promises, actually that it 169 00:08:00,640 --> 00:08:03,840 Speaker 1: will cut rates at some point this year, will allowing 170 00:08:03,880 --> 00:08:07,440 Speaker 1: inflation and growth to continue to run at a somewhat 171 00:08:07,520 --> 00:08:10,920 Speaker 1: hard speed. At what point does that become concerning to you, Muhammad? 172 00:08:11,040 --> 00:08:15,160 Speaker 4: It only becomes concerning Lisa if it the anchors inflation expectations. 173 00:08:15,480 --> 00:08:19,160 Speaker 4: I think there is a slow but show migration in markets, 174 00:08:19,240 --> 00:08:23,200 Speaker 4: even among policy observers and certainly among quite a few 175 00:08:23,240 --> 00:08:25,960 Speaker 4: economists to the view that yes, we're not going to 176 00:08:25,960 --> 00:08:28,200 Speaker 4: get to two percent, We're going to get to above two, 177 00:08:28,280 --> 00:08:31,160 Speaker 4: closer to three, and that's going to be stable. And 178 00:08:31,200 --> 00:08:35,520 Speaker 4: the policy mistake would be to go after two percent 179 00:08:35,679 --> 00:08:40,400 Speaker 4: inflation too quickly. You heard Bill Dudley yesterday and I 180 00:08:40,440 --> 00:08:42,719 Speaker 4: agree with him saying, you know, think more about a 181 00:08:42,720 --> 00:08:46,120 Speaker 4: two and a half percent inflation weight on average. You've 182 00:08:46,120 --> 00:08:50,120 Speaker 4: heard about how asymmetrical defeat is to when it misses 183 00:08:50,160 --> 00:08:52,240 Speaker 4: on one side or the other side on inflation. Look, 184 00:08:52,280 --> 00:08:56,680 Speaker 4: we're going to settle into an inflation world that's higher 185 00:08:56,720 --> 00:08:59,920 Speaker 4: than two percent, and I suspect that that is stable. 186 00:09:00,800 --> 00:09:04,760 Speaker 4: The risk is to try to force it down when 187 00:09:04,800 --> 00:09:07,520 Speaker 4: the economy can sustain a slightly higher one, because you're 188 00:09:07,520 --> 00:09:08,880 Speaker 4: then undermine economic well. 189 00:09:08,760 --> 00:09:11,560 Speaker 1: Being, Which raises this question, Jeff, about at what point 190 00:09:11,720 --> 00:09:15,880 Speaker 1: the bond market will adequately price in a higher inflation future. 191 00:09:16,000 --> 00:09:18,559 Speaker 1: John was talking about the BEMO survey and how there 192 00:09:18,640 --> 00:09:22,960 Speaker 1: essentially is an inherent bias among bond investors to buy duration, 193 00:09:23,160 --> 00:09:25,920 Speaker 1: to buy longer term bonds on selloffs, just simply because 194 00:09:25,960 --> 00:09:28,720 Speaker 1: they believe the FED will achieve their goal and will 195 00:09:28,720 --> 00:09:31,719 Speaker 1: continue to set rates at a lower rate. How much 196 00:09:31,720 --> 00:09:33,200 Speaker 1: can you get behind that and how much do you 197 00:09:33,240 --> 00:09:35,520 Speaker 1: push back and say, no, there is something else afoot 198 00:09:35,800 --> 00:09:37,959 Speaker 1: in the long end of the treasury curve that makes 199 00:09:38,000 --> 00:09:38,720 Speaker 1: you not like them. 200 00:09:38,960 --> 00:09:41,920 Speaker 5: Yeah, I really think that with rates at this level, 201 00:09:42,120 --> 00:09:45,720 Speaker 5: that we're going to shift away from that view that 202 00:09:45,800 --> 00:09:48,880 Speaker 5: the long end is the best place for the hedge. 203 00:09:49,040 --> 00:09:50,680 Speaker 5: You know, it used to be a long time ago 204 00:09:50,720 --> 00:09:53,640 Speaker 5: that flight to quality meant that the curve would steepen, 205 00:09:53,760 --> 00:09:56,480 Speaker 5: that the best performance in terms of yield change would 206 00:09:56,480 --> 00:09:57,439 Speaker 5: be in the short end. 207 00:09:57,559 --> 00:09:59,200 Speaker 6: And I think that's the environment that we're in. 208 00:09:59,240 --> 00:10:01,560 Speaker 5: If you go back a year ago during SVB, it 209 00:10:01,640 --> 00:10:03,840 Speaker 5: was exactly what you saw happen in the curve. The 210 00:10:03,840 --> 00:10:07,200 Speaker 5: best performance in terms of yield change for your hedges, 211 00:10:07,360 --> 00:10:08,840 Speaker 5: you know, granted that you need to have the right 212 00:10:08,920 --> 00:10:12,120 Speaker 5: notional amount to make this a fair comparison, happened in 213 00:10:12,160 --> 00:10:15,600 Speaker 5: the front end. The strongest negative stockbond correlation by bond 214 00:10:15,640 --> 00:10:18,160 Speaker 5: maturity was in the two year, the weakest was in 215 00:10:18,200 --> 00:10:20,720 Speaker 5: the thirty year. And I think that's the environment that 216 00:10:20,760 --> 00:10:23,760 Speaker 5: we're in, and as we start to see more evidence. 217 00:10:23,320 --> 00:10:24,920 Speaker 6: Of that, that's going to help. 218 00:10:25,080 --> 00:10:28,320 Speaker 5: If you will to bring back in some term premium 219 00:10:28,320 --> 00:10:31,280 Speaker 5: because part of the flattening of the term premium was 220 00:10:31,720 --> 00:10:34,520 Speaker 5: the pinning of zero interest rates in the front end, 221 00:10:34,520 --> 00:10:36,920 Speaker 5: which meant that a flight to quality had to be 222 00:10:36,960 --> 00:10:38,720 Speaker 5: in the back end because you didn't have the room 223 00:10:38,760 --> 00:10:40,880 Speaker 5: to run in the front end. With a level of 224 00:10:40,920 --> 00:10:43,560 Speaker 5: front end inversion that we have today, you go back 225 00:10:43,600 --> 00:10:46,880 Speaker 5: to that earlier kind of textbook that flight to quality 226 00:10:46,960 --> 00:10:50,280 Speaker 5: is in the front end and a steepener, and that 227 00:10:50,720 --> 00:10:52,400 Speaker 5: I think is going to help to bring back a 228 00:10:52,480 --> 00:10:55,760 Speaker 5: higher level of term premium, more consistent with the inflation 229 00:10:55,880 --> 00:10:58,160 Speaker 5: narrative we just heard from Muhammad. 230 00:10:57,679 --> 00:10:59,040 Speaker 2: Interest In Jeff, before you go, I want to talk 231 00:10:59,040 --> 00:11:01,000 Speaker 2: about Stokes with you sell. Just to put a bow 232 00:11:01,040 --> 00:11:02,719 Speaker 2: on it, is this a stock market front of the 233 00:11:02,800 --> 00:11:03,800 Speaker 2: Job's report this morning? 234 00:11:03,960 --> 00:11:04,160 Speaker 3: You know? 235 00:11:04,240 --> 00:11:05,960 Speaker 6: I think it's it's okay. 236 00:11:06,160 --> 00:11:08,360 Speaker 5: I think when you look at the stock market, what 237 00:11:08,400 --> 00:11:11,120 Speaker 5: we've seen this year is a lot less. 238 00:11:10,840 --> 00:11:13,240 Speaker 6: Dependence on the denominator. Right. 239 00:11:13,280 --> 00:11:17,040 Speaker 5: It's last year was all about inflation, inflation expectations, the 240 00:11:17,080 --> 00:11:20,440 Speaker 5: five year, five year driving headline equities. You've seen a 241 00:11:20,440 --> 00:11:23,160 Speaker 5: lot less of that. So I think it's less of 242 00:11:23,200 --> 00:11:25,080 Speaker 5: an issue because so much more of what we've seen 243 00:11:25,120 --> 00:11:28,600 Speaker 5: in stock market domination is really coming out of the numerators, 244 00:11:28,600 --> 00:11:31,480 Speaker 5: coming out of the earnings. The power of secular growers 245 00:11:31,679 --> 00:11:35,680 Speaker 5: really overwhelming the much smaller concerns in terms of the 246 00:11:35,720 --> 00:11:38,320 Speaker 5: degree of change that we're seeing in terms of the denominator. 247 00:11:38,400 --> 00:11:39,880 Speaker 2: Jeff, this was great. I know you've got to run 248 00:11:40,000 --> 00:11:43,520 Speaker 2: because you're at work today. We're not all in Lake Como. 249 00:11:43,800 --> 00:11:46,640 Speaker 2: Jeff Rosenberg of Blackrock has got to run. Mohamma's going 250 00:11:46,679 --> 00:11:48,000 Speaker 2: to stick with us in place to say if you 251 00:11:48,000 --> 00:11:49,640 Speaker 2: aren't just joining, I guess We've got the brilliant Mohamad 252 00:11:49,640 --> 00:11:51,640 Speaker 2: eleven of Queen's College, Cambridge alongside it is to break 253 00:11:51,679 --> 00:11:54,000 Speaker 2: down this job's report, Mohamed, let's get into a piece 254 00:11:54,000 --> 00:11:57,880 Speaker 2: you wrote earlier this week on American exceptionalism for Bloomberg Opinion. 255 00:11:57,920 --> 00:11:59,959 Speaker 2: You've mentioned that a few times, Well, it didn't mention 256 00:12:00,160 --> 00:12:02,240 Speaker 2: was something you pointed to in the pace and really 257 00:12:02,280 --> 00:12:04,480 Speaker 2: really highlighted, and it was a difference between what's happening 258 00:12:04,520 --> 00:12:07,360 Speaker 2: in Germany versus what's happening in the US bond market. 259 00:12:07,720 --> 00:12:10,079 Speaker 2: How important is that spread between the two of the moment. 260 00:12:10,240 --> 00:12:12,280 Speaker 4: It's important, and it's the reason why you seeing the 261 00:12:12,320 --> 00:12:14,440 Speaker 4: dollar strength, then look, John, it's gone up to about 262 00:12:14,440 --> 00:12:17,360 Speaker 4: two hundred basis points. If you look at the last 263 00:12:17,360 --> 00:12:19,720 Speaker 4: three years, the low was ninety seven basis points. 264 00:12:20,000 --> 00:12:21,320 Speaker 3: And it reflects two things. 265 00:12:21,600 --> 00:12:26,040 Speaker 4: One is that US economic growth has and will continue 266 00:12:26,080 --> 00:12:29,800 Speaker 4: to outpace Germany's and the rest of Europe. And the 267 00:12:29,840 --> 00:12:34,800 Speaker 4: second thing is that inflation will come down in Europe 268 00:12:34,920 --> 00:12:37,120 Speaker 4: faster than will in the US. And you may well 269 00:12:37,200 --> 00:12:41,800 Speaker 4: end up with more ECB cuts than the FED, even 270 00:12:41,800 --> 00:12:43,760 Speaker 4: though the ECB didn't hike as much as the FED. 271 00:12:44,160 --> 00:12:46,880 Speaker 4: And I think these the markets are starting to incorporate 272 00:12:46,920 --> 00:12:50,760 Speaker 4: these two things, and that single differential captures really well 273 00:12:50,960 --> 00:12:51,840 Speaker 4: these different factors. 274 00:12:51,960 --> 00:12:54,120 Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm struck by the idea that the US immigration 275 00:12:54,240 --> 00:12:56,880 Speaker 1: story is so different from other areas around the world 276 00:12:56,920 --> 00:13:00,640 Speaker 1: that are facing real demographic problems, like the euroregion. From 277 00:13:00,640 --> 00:13:03,480 Speaker 1: that point of view, when does the euro become a 278 00:13:03,559 --> 00:13:06,320 Speaker 1: problem in terms of a weakness and an important inflation 279 00:13:06,400 --> 00:13:08,920 Speaker 1: issue or is that almost a welcome development so that 280 00:13:08,960 --> 00:13:12,600 Speaker 1: the European region can compete against American exceptionalism. 281 00:13:12,720 --> 00:13:15,160 Speaker 4: It would be at the margin welcome. That I think 282 00:13:14,880 --> 00:13:18,280 Speaker 4: more concerning is what's been happening to oil prices, and 283 00:13:18,320 --> 00:13:21,160 Speaker 4: that's something we don't talk enough about. But when you 284 00:13:21,240 --> 00:13:24,200 Speaker 4: see Brent in the nineties that is going to have 285 00:13:24,280 --> 00:13:28,640 Speaker 4: a stackflationary impact on Europe. You know it's good to 286 00:13:28,679 --> 00:13:32,320 Speaker 4: come and visit and participate in these European conferences. And 287 00:13:32,360 --> 00:13:37,360 Speaker 4: the one here at Umbrosoti is excellent because you hear 288 00:13:37,760 --> 00:13:42,559 Speaker 4: a completely different narrative about the economy, about what's happening 289 00:13:42,600 --> 00:13:45,480 Speaker 4: to the supply side, and you realize how exceptional the 290 00:13:45,559 --> 00:13:50,040 Speaker 4: US is right now, and this divergence is not just 291 00:13:50,320 --> 00:13:53,120 Speaker 4: going to stay, It's going to increase over time. And 292 00:13:53,160 --> 00:13:56,079 Speaker 4: that's something important when people want to rush to fade 293 00:13:56,080 --> 00:14:01,280 Speaker 4: the US in terms of equity allocations elsewhere, just look 294 00:14:01,320 --> 00:14:02,679 Speaker 4: at the underlying stories. 295 00:14:02,720 --> 00:14:04,040 Speaker 3: They are very, very different. 296 00:14:04,080 --> 00:14:05,840 Speaker 1: Lisa, Well, just to put together some of the things 297 00:14:05,840 --> 00:14:07,800 Speaker 1: that you said, Given the fact that we are seeing 298 00:14:07,800 --> 00:14:09,960 Speaker 1: oil prices rally, are you saying that that could be 299 00:14:09,960 --> 00:14:13,200 Speaker 1: a staideflationary shock for the European region and that frankly 300 00:14:13,240 --> 00:14:16,280 Speaker 1: could only widen the divide between Europe and the US. 301 00:14:16,320 --> 00:14:18,320 Speaker 1: It also stands to benefit on the other side from 302 00:14:18,400 --> 00:14:19,400 Speaker 1: higher oil prices. 303 00:14:19,840 --> 00:14:22,320 Speaker 4: Yes, I mean I wouldn't say shock as much as 304 00:14:22,360 --> 00:14:27,040 Speaker 4: I would say is techfilationary headwind? And it makes a 305 00:14:27,080 --> 00:14:29,840 Speaker 4: transition that Europe needs to make, which is the US 306 00:14:29,920 --> 00:14:34,000 Speaker 4: is making from an old, exhausted growth model that depended 307 00:14:34,040 --> 00:14:36,280 Speaker 4: on exports to China, that depended on all sorts of 308 00:14:36,360 --> 00:14:39,120 Speaker 4: things that are no longer happening, to a new growth 309 00:14:39,160 --> 00:14:44,160 Speaker 4: model that stresses things like genitive AI, life sciences, sustainable energy. 310 00:14:44,480 --> 00:14:48,160 Speaker 4: It makes that transition for Europe even harder. So yes, 311 00:14:48,440 --> 00:14:51,360 Speaker 4: it is an important factor to keep in mind because 312 00:14:51,720 --> 00:14:53,840 Speaker 4: Europe doesn't need additional headwinds right now. 313 00:14:54,000 --> 00:14:56,160 Speaker 2: Mohammed, we'd love a final thought on what we got 314 00:14:56,160 --> 00:14:58,400 Speaker 2: this morning and what it makes the FED policy. This 315 00:14:58,520 --> 00:15:01,520 Speaker 2: from Torson Slock of Apollow. He said, the source of 316 00:15:01,560 --> 00:15:05,000 Speaker 2: this strength is easy financial conditions. We are sticking to 317 00:15:05,040 --> 00:15:07,840 Speaker 2: our view that the FED will not cut interest rates 318 00:15:08,280 --> 00:15:11,120 Speaker 2: this year. Mohammed, what's your reaction to that? And do 319 00:15:11,160 --> 00:15:11,720 Speaker 2: you agree? 320 00:15:11,840 --> 00:15:13,880 Speaker 4: So I understand where he's coming from. Me even had 321 00:15:14,040 --> 00:15:17,280 Speaker 4: a non voting member of the FOMC as today role 322 00:15:17,400 --> 00:15:21,680 Speaker 4: market by a statement. I think that if this FED 323 00:15:22,440 --> 00:15:27,280 Speaker 4: is continuously overly data dependent, then maybe we don't get cuts. 324 00:15:27,520 --> 00:15:31,960 Speaker 4: But I'm hoping that they will see through the backward 325 00:15:32,000 --> 00:15:33,960 Speaker 4: looking data and look forward, and I think we will 326 00:15:34,080 --> 00:15:39,040 Speaker 4: end up with two cuts this year. It may not 327 00:15:39,080 --> 00:15:42,000 Speaker 4: start as early as a lot of people thought initially, 328 00:15:42,040 --> 00:15:43,440 Speaker 4: but I do think we will get two cuts. 329 00:15:44,000 --> 00:15:46,040 Speaker 2: Muhammad, this was great. Thanks for making time for us today. 330 00:15:46,120 --> 00:15:49,160 Speaker 2: We appreciate it, as you often do. On pay Ross Friday, Mouhammad, 331 00:15:49,320 --> 00:15:53,160 Speaker 2: Aaron of Queen's College, Camper's working through another upside surprise 332 00:15:53,280 --> 00:16:06,840 Speaker 2: Lisa on the job's report Stolenberg, NATO Secretary General joins us. Now, 333 00:16:07,000 --> 00:16:08,760 Speaker 2: mister Secretary General, want for to catch up with you 334 00:16:08,800 --> 00:16:10,680 Speaker 2: against I just wanted to stand with some comments from 335 00:16:10,720 --> 00:16:13,400 Speaker 2: the French President Emanuel Macron, a series of comments over 336 00:16:13,400 --> 00:16:15,680 Speaker 2: the last month. I'd love your response to He hasn't 337 00:16:15,760 --> 00:16:18,280 Speaker 2: ruled out eventual boots on the ground in Ukraine. He 338 00:16:18,400 --> 00:16:22,360 Speaker 2: recently suggested sending personnel there, including the possibility of training 339 00:16:22,400 --> 00:16:25,120 Speaker 2: troops in the country. I just wondered have you spoken 340 00:16:25,160 --> 00:16:27,520 Speaker 2: to him directly about some of these proposals. 341 00:16:27,880 --> 00:16:30,360 Speaker 7: I'm a regular contact with the French President and all. 342 00:16:30,280 --> 00:16:35,000 Speaker 8: The leaders in the NATO alliance, and what is clear 343 00:16:35,160 --> 00:16:40,440 Speaker 8: is that NATO has all plans of deploying combat troops 344 00:16:40,480 --> 00:16:45,040 Speaker 8: into Ukraine, but we will step up our military support 345 00:16:45,160 --> 00:16:51,720 Speaker 8: to Ukraine with ammunition, equipment, weapons, so Ukraine can liberate 346 00:16:51,760 --> 00:16:56,480 Speaker 8: more territory and Kraveilia and as a sovereign independent nation 347 00:16:56,600 --> 00:16:58,680 Speaker 8: in Europe, because that match for Ukraine, but it also 348 00:16:58,720 --> 00:16:59,960 Speaker 8: matters for all NATO allies. 349 00:17:00,080 --> 00:17:02,640 Speaker 2: So could I be more specific sending person out there 350 00:17:03,000 --> 00:17:06,479 Speaker 2: to train troops? How risky is the training option in 351 00:17:06,520 --> 00:17:07,000 Speaker 2: your view? 352 00:17:07,280 --> 00:17:09,879 Speaker 7: Well, again, as we are providing. 353 00:17:10,920 --> 00:17:13,960 Speaker 8: Training, NATO alas are providing taining for tens of thousands 354 00:17:14,040 --> 00:17:18,280 Speaker 8: of Ukrainian troops, have done that for many years, but 355 00:17:18,480 --> 00:17:25,600 Speaker 8: that space now outside Ukraine. So our support is to 356 00:17:25,680 --> 00:17:29,800 Speaker 8: provide training, it's to provide amnition weapons, but not to 357 00:17:29,840 --> 00:17:33,200 Speaker 8: have combat operations inside Ukraine. 358 00:17:33,520 --> 00:17:35,720 Speaker 9: I want to also ask you about the fact of 359 00:17:35,760 --> 00:17:38,119 Speaker 9: the former president coming back that's looming large on some 360 00:17:38,160 --> 00:17:40,879 Speaker 9: of these partners within NATO, especially when it comes to 361 00:17:41,200 --> 00:17:44,520 Speaker 9: the Ukrainian Defense Contact Group, which is run by the 362 00:17:44,600 --> 00:17:46,719 Speaker 9: United States. Is there a chance you bring that in 363 00:17:46,840 --> 00:17:50,800 Speaker 9: house so that NATO controls that and pretty much safeguards 364 00:17:50,800 --> 00:17:53,200 Speaker 9: it no matter who runs the US. 365 00:17:53,480 --> 00:17:55,760 Speaker 8: Well, we are we agree that the NATO Forum and 366 00:17:55,840 --> 00:17:59,119 Speaker 8: is still admitting this week to start planning for a 367 00:17:59,200 --> 00:18:05,560 Speaker 8: stronger native role in providing and coordinating support to Ukraine. 368 00:18:05,880 --> 00:18:10,080 Speaker 8: The US said contact for Ukraine has played and contains 369 00:18:10,119 --> 00:18:12,639 Speaker 8: to pay a very important role. But I think that 370 00:18:12,720 --> 00:18:15,840 Speaker 8: NATO can ensure that we have even more robust and 371 00:18:15,880 --> 00:18:20,959 Speaker 8: more predictable framework for our support to Ukraine. That's needed 372 00:18:21,000 --> 00:18:23,639 Speaker 8: because Ukrainians need to know that we are there for 373 00:18:23,680 --> 00:18:27,359 Speaker 8: the long haul. So that's what we're starting to do 374 00:18:27,400 --> 00:18:30,600 Speaker 8: at NATO, and I expect the decision before the NATO 375 00:18:30,640 --> 00:18:31,920 Speaker 8: seventeen Washington in July. 376 00:18:32,520 --> 00:18:35,640 Speaker 9: Other other areas you're trying to shore up NATO control 377 00:18:35,680 --> 00:18:38,320 Speaker 9: because you are concerned about political instability. 378 00:18:38,600 --> 00:18:41,879 Speaker 8: Well, my proposals on a stronger NATO role is based 379 00:18:41,880 --> 00:18:45,080 Speaker 8: on the situation on the battlefield in Ukraine, the urgent 380 00:18:45,200 --> 00:18:50,480 Speaker 8: need they have to have more reliable, more predictable support, 381 00:18:51,000 --> 00:18:54,520 Speaker 8: the need we have within NATO to ensure more fair 382 00:18:54,640 --> 00:18:58,600 Speaker 8: burden sharing among allies. Nineteen nine percent of the military 383 00:18:58,640 --> 00:19:01,960 Speaker 8: support comes from NATO, and we how to be sure 384 00:19:02,000 --> 00:19:06,040 Speaker 8: that bern is shared equally among allies. And then of 385 00:19:06,119 --> 00:19:08,280 Speaker 8: course we also need to send a message to Moscow 386 00:19:08,359 --> 00:19:11,520 Speaker 8: that we are there for long hauld because now Preston 387 00:19:11,560 --> 00:19:14,160 Speaker 8: Puttin believes that he can wait us out, he has 388 00:19:14,200 --> 00:19:16,399 Speaker 8: to understand that he will not win on the battlefield. 389 00:19:16,520 --> 00:19:19,919 Speaker 8: He cannot wait out Ukraine and NATO allies and therefore 390 00:19:20,000 --> 00:19:24,600 Speaker 8: stronger institutionalized NATO framework will send that message and then 391 00:19:24,720 --> 00:19:28,000 Speaker 8: force him to sit down and negotiate an agreement where 392 00:19:28,080 --> 00:19:31,520 Speaker 8: Ukraine pervades as a severn independent nation in Europe. 393 00:19:31,640 --> 00:19:34,880 Speaker 1: Secretary General, we talk almost every morning about the potential 394 00:19:34,960 --> 00:19:37,919 Speaker 1: for Ukraine funding in the US to be passed, and 395 00:19:37,960 --> 00:19:40,960 Speaker 1: how it's gotten hung up by politics again and again 396 00:19:41,080 --> 00:19:41,480 Speaker 1: and again. 397 00:19:41,600 --> 00:19:42,560 Speaker 6: How difficult does. 398 00:19:42,480 --> 00:19:45,040 Speaker 1: It make it for you to wrangle support to get 399 00:19:45,040 --> 00:19:47,919 Speaker 1: to one hundred billion dollar fund that you plan for 400 00:19:48,000 --> 00:19:49,359 Speaker 1: the next five years for Ukraine. 401 00:19:49,560 --> 00:19:53,080 Speaker 8: Of course, it matters that the United States has delayed 402 00:19:53,119 --> 00:19:55,920 Speaker 8: its decision to provide support to Ukraine. That's one of 403 00:19:55,920 --> 00:19:59,359 Speaker 8: the reasons why the Ukrainians now how to ration the 404 00:19:59,440 --> 00:20:03,919 Speaker 8: number of sho their forces can use, and why Ukraine 405 00:20:04,000 --> 00:20:09,000 Speaker 8: is outgunned by the Russian forces. At the same time, 406 00:20:09,080 --> 00:20:12,920 Speaker 8: we have to remember that European Aals and Canada are 407 00:20:13,000 --> 00:20:17,920 Speaker 8: providing roughly fifty percent half of the military support to Ukraine. 408 00:20:18,200 --> 00:20:20,600 Speaker 8: So it's not only the United States, it's also ordnate 409 00:20:20,680 --> 00:20:23,040 Speaker 8: to allies, but of course the United States being by 410 00:20:23,040 --> 00:20:26,680 Speaker 8: far the individual ally which is providing the most. 411 00:20:26,760 --> 00:20:28,160 Speaker 7: It matters and. 412 00:20:28,160 --> 00:20:31,880 Speaker 8: Therefore, I really hope that the US Congress can make 413 00:20:31,880 --> 00:20:36,639 Speaker 8: a decision as soon as possible. This is important for Ukraine, 414 00:20:36,720 --> 00:20:39,159 Speaker 8: but it's also in the security interest of the United 415 00:20:39,200 --> 00:20:43,800 Speaker 8: States to prevent President Putin from winning, and that will 416 00:20:43,800 --> 00:20:45,840 Speaker 8: send a message to him, but also to President g 417 00:20:45,960 --> 00:20:48,479 Speaker 8: in China that when they use military force, when they 418 00:20:48,600 --> 00:20:53,680 Speaker 8: invade another country, when they'reviolet international law, they achieve their aims. 419 00:20:54,320 --> 00:20:57,919 Speaker 8: That will reduce the threshold and the future use of force. 420 00:20:58,160 --> 00:21:01,560 Speaker 8: What happens in Ukraine today can happening how long tomorrow. 421 00:21:01,800 --> 00:21:05,280 Speaker 8: So therefore it is in the national security interest of 422 00:21:05,400 --> 00:21:08,639 Speaker 8: the United States to provide the military support to Ukraine. 423 00:21:08,760 --> 00:21:12,359 Speaker 1: Secretary General Henry was talking about former President Trump coming 424 00:21:12,400 --> 00:21:14,480 Speaker 1: back to power and how that's looming large, and I 425 00:21:14,520 --> 00:21:17,840 Speaker 1: wonder how much those criticisms are also looming large that 426 00:21:17,920 --> 00:21:20,840 Speaker 1: are not just isolated to Donald Trump, but others as well, 427 00:21:21,000 --> 00:21:23,159 Speaker 1: saying that frankly, a lot of NATO members have not 428 00:21:23,280 --> 00:21:26,600 Speaker 1: contributed enough to the spending and to the financing of some. 429 00:21:26,520 --> 00:21:27,360 Speaker 6: Of these efforts. 430 00:21:27,640 --> 00:21:30,720 Speaker 1: How much reluctance are you hearing from some of the 431 00:21:30,800 --> 00:21:34,800 Speaker 1: NEEDO members that haven't traditionally contributed as much to really 432 00:21:34,880 --> 00:21:38,040 Speaker 1: helping fund or disproportionately fund that one hundred billion dollars. 433 00:21:38,280 --> 00:21:41,399 Speaker 8: So I strongly believe that it has been a valid 434 00:21:41,440 --> 00:21:44,200 Speaker 8: point from the United States that European allies have not 435 00:21:44,560 --> 00:21:50,600 Speaker 8: invested enough in NATO in the events, but that has 436 00:21:50,680 --> 00:21:54,720 Speaker 8: really changed. We made a pledge in twenty fourteen Whenson 437 00:21:54,800 --> 00:21:59,439 Speaker 8: Obama was person to the United States to ensure that 438 00:21:59,480 --> 00:22:02,480 Speaker 8: all allies spent two percent of GDP on defense. At 439 00:22:02,480 --> 00:22:06,120 Speaker 8: that time, in twenty fourteen, only three allies spent. 440 00:22:06,080 --> 00:22:07,680 Speaker 7: Two percent of GDP on defense. 441 00:22:08,240 --> 00:22:12,720 Speaker 8: This year we expect around twenty allies two thirds of 442 00:22:12,760 --> 00:22:15,720 Speaker 8: the allies to spend two percent. That's a huge difference. 443 00:22:15,760 --> 00:22:21,400 Speaker 8: It's a significant improvement. And when it comes to the 444 00:22:21,400 --> 00:22:24,119 Speaker 8: extremony for Ukraine, one of the reasons why I want 445 00:22:24,160 --> 00:22:29,480 Speaker 8: a stronger NATO framework, institutionalized framework around the support is 446 00:22:29,520 --> 00:22:32,760 Speaker 8: that that's a way to ensure fair burden sharing, to 447 00:22:32,880 --> 00:22:37,280 Speaker 8: actually agree some kind of cost shares or to agree 448 00:22:37,280 --> 00:22:38,200 Speaker 8: a way to finance. 449 00:22:38,760 --> 00:22:40,080 Speaker 7: And by doing it. 450 00:22:40,960 --> 00:22:44,959 Speaker 8: We can ensure fair burden sharing and that and that 451 00:22:45,000 --> 00:22:48,160 Speaker 8: makes it easier to get all ours on board also 452 00:22:48,200 --> 00:22:49,000 Speaker 8: the United States. 453 00:22:49,280 --> 00:22:52,000 Speaker 2: Secondly, general, we appreciate the ongoing conversation. Thanks for joining 454 00:22:52,080 --> 00:22:56,280 Speaker 2: US this morning's in Stalldenberg there of NATO. This is 455 00:22:56,320 --> 00:23:00,679 Speaker 2: the Bloomberg's Events podcast, bringing you the best in market, economics, 456 00:23:00,680 --> 00:23:03,680 Speaker 2: a geopolitics. You can watch the show live on Bloomberg 457 00:23:03,680 --> 00:23:06,840 Speaker 2: TV weekday mornings from six am to nine am Eastern. 458 00:23:07,160 --> 00:23:10,480 Speaker 2: Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else 459 00:23:10,520 --> 00:23:13,159 Speaker 2: you listen, and, as always, on the Bloomberg Terminal and 460 00:23:13,240 --> 00:23:14,480 Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Business app.