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Speaker 1: All right, and welcome into the Betting Pros College Football Show.

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Speaker 1: It's time to lock in with our official picks and

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Speaker 1: predictions for the top ten games on the week twelfth slate.

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Speaker 1: I'm your host Seth Wilcock, and joining me is a

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Speaker 1: man who maybe taking a trip to Oxford to see

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Speaker 1: his Texas Longhorns in the college football playoffs if the

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Speaker 1: season ended today. He's Scott Buck the trend Bogman Boggs.

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Speaker 1: How are you feeling about this weekend slate and the

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Speaker 1: latest CFP rankings?

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Speaker 2: I mean, I like the rankings went from the first

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Speaker 2: team out to the last team in. Yeah, you know,

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Speaker 2: outside of you know, the ACC auto bid and the

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Speaker 2: G five auto bid all that stuff, But being in

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Speaker 2: is nice. I would love to see the Longhorns in

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Speaker 2: the playoff, But a lot of football left. Three big

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Speaker 2: games left, all tough games, starting with Georgia here than

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Speaker 2: Arkansas and A and M. So playing in the SEC,

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Speaker 2: it's always going to be a brutal schedule for every team,

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Speaker 2: but if you get through it, you're gonna be a

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Speaker 2: high seed.

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Speaker 3: So pressure is a privilege.

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Speaker 1: Absolutely is, And I feel a little bit of weight

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Speaker 1: lifted off my shoulders at this time of the year

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Speaker 1: because I don't have to look for Hey, where's Penn State?

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Speaker 4: What are we looking at for the playoffs?

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Speaker 1: But I also miss it because Tuesday nights we're getting

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Speaker 1: pretty special this time last year, always getting into the

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Speaker 1: thick of it there and say, hey, is Penn State gonna.

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Speaker 4: Be hosting a game?

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Speaker 1: Can I get to that game? All those question marks

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Speaker 1: no longer apply to me.

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Speaker 4: How do you feel about Slate this week?

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Speaker 1: Because I really actually like what I have out there

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Speaker 1: for a betting card right now, and you know, some

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Speaker 1: shifted and shaking. It's a limited card for me, but

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Speaker 1: I really like the plays I have.

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Speaker 3: I like get more than the last two weeks.

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Speaker 2: I'll say that, but you know, I'm still I'm still

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Speaker 2: a little It's okay, it's not my favorite week of

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Speaker 2: the season, but there are some things to like here

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Speaker 2: for sure, specifically in these top ten.

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Speaker 3: I do like some of these.

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Speaker 1: Okay, And as always, shout to all our favorite degenerate

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Speaker 1: friends tuning in either on the Betting Pros YouTube channel

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Speaker 1: or the audio feed the Easiest Freeway Sports.

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Speaker 4: Please give this video.

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Speaker 1: A thumbs up if you enjoy college football betting coverage,

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Speaker 1: and also make sure you subscribe to the channels. You

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Speaker 1: don't miss a moment of all the things we have

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Speaker 1: going on, whether that's NFL football, NBA, the Daily Juice

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Speaker 1: with Matt Praul, a lot of stuff happening right here

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Speaker 1: on the channel and the audio feeds. So make sure

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Speaker 1: you guys are checking out and staying locked and load

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Speaker 1: with us. As the winter months approach, and before we

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Speaker 1: Two and a half point tickets are now available in

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Speaker 1: favor of the nineteenth ranked Louisville Cardinals over the four

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Speaker 1: and five Clemson Tigers on Friday Night. Clemson, they're without

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Speaker 1: wide receiver Bryant Westco junior for the rest of the season.

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Speaker 1: Louisville has their star running back Isaac Brown in a

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Speaker 1: few defensive two deep members who are questionable for this

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Speaker 1: one BP projections.

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Speaker 4: Right now, we have this closer.

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Speaker 1: To a five point game, but Bogs, you know me,

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Speaker 1: I'm refusing to bet an acc favorite in.

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Speaker 4: This trap spot that has become Friday Nights. What about you, man?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm with you on this one.

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Speaker 2: You know there are things I like here in this

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Speaker 2: But you know, I think the question of motivation for

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Speaker 2: both these teams is fair. Right, Clemson has to win

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Speaker 2: two of the last three to make a bowl game.

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Speaker 2: Now they have an auto win against FCS Firman next week,

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Speaker 2: but that means they either have to win this game

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Speaker 2: against Louisville or they have to beat South Carolina, both

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Speaker 2: tough games. So and is making a bawl a motivation

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Speaker 2: for Clemson their history right, This is kind of hard

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Speaker 2: to discern that. And Louisville they lost their spot last week.

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Speaker 2: They're still technically in it, but I probably downplayed the

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Speaker 2: amount of win coming out of the sales that home

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Speaker 2: loss to Cal all but drumming them out. So Louisville

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Speaker 2: was pretty one dimensional on offense playing from behind with

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Speaker 2: running back Isaac Brown down, and Clemson's pass rush can

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Speaker 2: get home, so you know, Also, looking just at the

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Speaker 2: quarterbacks in this game, Klubnik is top fifteen in passing

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Speaker 2: grade under pressure and Louisville has the number one pass

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Speaker 2: rush grade in the country. Miller Moss is a bottom

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Speaker 2: fiender under pressure or not. This season, he hasn't been good.

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Speaker 2: I think the safer bet is going to be the

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Speaker 2: under in this game. I just think Clemson's defense is

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Speaker 2: going to play well. We have Louisville getting after Klubnik. Also,

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Speaker 2: we saw Clemson play that twenty four to ten game

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Speaker 2: against Florida State last week. I think that's the safest

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Speaker 2: bet here, so I'm going to lean towards the under.

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Speaker 2: We're still showing value towards Louisville, and I do think

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Speaker 2: they win a home game by a field goal, So

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Speaker 2: I like that this has you know, crept under three,

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Speaker 2: so we can take that hook away and hopefully win

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Speaker 2: by a field goal. If you're on Louisville, I just

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Speaker 2: don't trust either one of these teams to be really

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Speaker 2: up for this game, so I'm gonna stay away from this.

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Speaker 2: My favorite pick in this game is the under, and

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Speaker 2: I would take Louisville at home, but I just don't

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Speaker 2: love it.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, right now, Louisville fifteen to one to

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Speaker 1: win the ACC Championship game. I mean there are odds

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Speaker 1: last week there around that two to three to one range,

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Speaker 1: so you can really see just how far that loss

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Speaker 1: last week that upset to Cal dropped them.

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Speaker 4: So I do agree.

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Speaker 1: I think motivation will be a factor here. I think

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Speaker 1: gun to the head, I'd be taking Clemson here, just

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Speaker 1: give me the points, but with it getting so close

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Speaker 1: to two and a half now, like I'm out on it,

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Speaker 1: even like you'll get some Friday night boosts, But I'm good.

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Speaker 3: I think you can make me taking Clemson. You just

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Speaker 3: take the money line, right.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, you're probably all right. You're probably right plus

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Speaker 1: one twenty five right now on it. It just feels like

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Speaker 1: it's not enough enough back for Henny.

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Speaker 3: How are you trusting Clemson? How they look this year? Right?

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Speaker 2: Maybe because they just beat FSU. Louisville has not been

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Speaker 2: playing their best football recently. They're down Isaac Brown, right,

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Speaker 2: So I get it, I get it either way. I

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Speaker 2: just I will not have any of my American dollars

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Speaker 2: on this game.

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Speaker 4: Agreed.

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Speaker 1: There's been no line movement so far this week in

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Speaker 1: College station with the third ranked in undefeated number three

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Speaker 1: Texas A and m Aggie. They're still favored by eighteen

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Speaker 1: and a half to nineteen and a half points at

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Speaker 1: some books against the three and six South Carolina game Cocks.

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Speaker 1: South Carolina's tackle Caseen Henry is questionable. A and m

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Speaker 1: still likely to be out Le'Veon Moss. They're running back

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Speaker 1: for this one. The BP projections right now, they are

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Speaker 1: with the odds makers, so they're saying this is a

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Speaker 1: stay away spot. I'm also saying this is a stay

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Speaker 1: away spot.

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Speaker 4: What about you, Scotti?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, look, I don't like that the line hasn't moved,

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Speaker 2: But I'm taking the Aggies.

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Speaker 3: I just cannot Are you really lineup? Yeah?

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Speaker 2: Look, the more I think about why South Carolina was

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Speaker 2: in that game against it's because Bama just didn't have

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Speaker 2: the push up front that Oklahoma had right and outside

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Speaker 2: of Tim Keenan, they don't have the size that Ole

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Speaker 2: Miss has right. So either way, they didn't get home

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Speaker 2: on sellers and they didn't tackle well. A and M

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Speaker 2: may not be the best tackling team, but they harassed

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Speaker 2: opposing quarterbacks first, and sacks per game type for first

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Speaker 2: with Texas eighth and pass rush grade. We have to

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Speaker 2: go all the way back to September twenty seventh against

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Speaker 2: Auburn as the last game the Aggies didn't put up

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Speaker 2: thirty points Marcel Reid, and the offense has been outstanding.

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Speaker 2: Maybe South Carolina makes this close for a quarter or

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Speaker 2: a half because they're off the buy here. I just

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Speaker 2: don't think they're going to be able to slow down

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Speaker 2: Marcel Reid. I don't think they're going to be able

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Speaker 2: to play point for point with the Aggies. If they

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Speaker 2: can't keep A and M from taking a lead quickly,

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Speaker 2: it is going to be an extremely long night for

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Speaker 2: the game Cock. So I just their defense has been better,

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Speaker 2: but they've been on the field so much. Right, this

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Speaker 2: team is bad in time of possession one hundred and twentieth.

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Speaker 2: They're holding the ball around, you know, twenty eight minutes

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Speaker 2: per game. That is bad for your defense, specifically the

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Speaker 2: later you get into the season, because they're getting worn out.

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Speaker 2: So I just don't think the defense has the strength

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Speaker 2: to contend with A and M here, specifically on the road,

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Speaker 2: and I don't think the offense can play catch up.

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Speaker 2: So is not my favorite line. It's not gonna be

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Speaker 2: on my best bet. It probably won't be on my

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Speaker 2: show either. But my pick in this game is going

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Speaker 2: to be the Aggies.

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Speaker 1: Is there an argument to make that A and M

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Speaker 1: is one of the most surprising teams in college football

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Speaker 1: this season?

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Speaker 4: Because if you would have told.

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Speaker 1: Me we're here at week twelve, they're plus one sixty

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Speaker 1: to win the SEC.

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Speaker 4: I'd be pretty surprised. All the way back in August,

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Speaker 4: I think.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, look batter at Aggie syndrome. Right, everybody talks about

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Speaker 2: it like the Aggies just can't have anything nice, So

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Speaker 2: everyone is waiting for the other shoot to drop. Maybe

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Speaker 2: it doesn't this year for the Aggies. I mean, you know,

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Speaker 2: when I think this, buck stops. But we'll see when

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Speaker 2: we get there. Yeah, but yeah, I mean the Aggies

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Speaker 2: are one of the better teams in the SEC this year.

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Speaker 2: And this is what playing a tough SEC schedule gets you, right,

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Speaker 2: Like we saw Lane Kiffin crying that they weren't at

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Speaker 2: number one and they're only at number three whatever. I mean,

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Speaker 2: who cares? But I just think that if you win

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Speaker 2: the SEC, you're going to be in that number one

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Speaker 2: and number two spot no matter what. So all they

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Speaker 2: gotta do is keep winning. If they keep winning, they're

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Speaker 2: going to be right there.

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Speaker 4: Easier said than done, of course. Though.

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Speaker 1: And before we keep it moving, folks, I wanted to

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Speaker 1: remind you that you can track your bets, stay accountable,

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Speaker 1: slash a premium. The line has widened some in Annapolis,

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Speaker 1: where the twenty fifth ranked South Florida Bulls are coming

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Speaker 1: into town now as ten to ten and a half

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Speaker 1: point favorites everywhere right now over the seven and two

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Speaker 1: Navy midshipman USF. They have their wide receiver three, Chaz Nimrod,

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Speaker 1: and some defensive two deep members questionable. Navy their quarterback

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Speaker 1: Blake Horvath, who has been questionable for a while now

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Speaker 1: he is still questionable. Titan Cody Howard also questionable, expecting

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Speaker 1: Horrorvath to likely playing this one, though BP projections are

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Speaker 1: also right in line with the books listing this closer

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Speaker 1: to ten points. So I am taking my G five

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Speaker 1: plays this week to Conference USA. I'm staying out of

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Speaker 1: the American Boggs.

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Speaker 4: What about you, though? Do you have any action on

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Speaker 4: this tilt?

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Speaker 3: Yeah?

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Speaker 2: I don't hate this game. I'm gonna be on the

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Speaker 2: Bulls here even on the road. We know that we

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Speaker 2: don't have an official update for horror bath. I think,

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Speaker 2: like you, he's probably going to play in this game,

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Speaker 2: but I don't know if it's going to be at

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Speaker 2: one hundred percent. And really the difference in this game

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Speaker 2: because last year USF lost this game twenty eight to seven,

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Speaker 2: but Byron Brown was not healthy enough to play in it.

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Speaker 2: The year before in twenty twenty three, when he was

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Speaker 2: healthy enough to play in this game against Navy, USF

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Speaker 2: won forty four to thirty. Right, he was twenty six

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Speaker 2: to thirty four for three hundred and thirty eight yards

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Speaker 2: and three touchdowns. Again, like we mentioned on Monday, set,

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Speaker 2: the tackling for USF concerns me really bad grades here.

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Speaker 2: But the thing that they've been doing all season with

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Speaker 2: their number five scoring offense, seventh in total yards, right,

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Speaker 2: is they just outscore everybody. So I think that's what's

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Speaker 2: gonna happen to Navy here, is I you know, maybe

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Speaker 2: they can move the ball, but they're not gonna be

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Speaker 2: able to stop Iron Brown this USF offense. So I'm

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Speaker 2: gonna lay the points and take the bulls here.

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Speaker 4: Okay.

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Speaker 1: The spread has also widened in the Steel City, with

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Speaker 1: the number twenty three pit Panthers now catching between eleven

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Speaker 1: and a half and twelve and a half points against

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Speaker 1: the number nine Notre Dame fighting Irish. We have a

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Speaker 1: ton of injuries to get to in this one. The

288
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Speaker 1: Iris still down their guard Billy Sharuth and their center

289
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Speaker 1: ash and Craig. They're also going to be without their

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Speaker 1: starting kicker for this one, and they have injuries still

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Speaker 1: in their defensive too deep and their wide receiver Death.

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Speaker 4: Pitt has questionable running back Desmond.

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Speaker 1: Reid, their safety cruise of Brookins, linebacker Rashem Briles, and

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Speaker 1: a left tackle Jeff Bersey. BP projections right now are

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Speaker 1: showing some value on Pitt actually listening. This line just

296
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Speaker 1: under eight points. So is there any way to get

297
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Speaker 1: involved with this one? Down at Akashire Stadium on the

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Speaker 1: North Shore for Saturday afternoon?

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Speaker 2: Bogman, this one's gonna be a lean for me as well,

300
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Speaker 2: not a pick, but I still Notre Dame wins this one,

301
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Speaker 2: but this is too many points for me to get

302
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Speaker 2: behind them. We're showing significant value towards the Panthers. As

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Speaker 2: you mentioned, Pitt's coming off a bye. They're on an

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Speaker 2: absolute hot streak since Heiitchel took over. Pitt hasn't lost

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Speaker 2: a game since the switch of quarterback, pulling an upset

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Speaker 2: against FSU on the road, and beating the spread in

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Speaker 2: every game in that stretch. So Notre Dame has really

308
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Speaker 2: beat down the teams they're supposed to beat outside. You know,

309
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Speaker 2: the three ranked teams that they played against, Miami A

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Speaker 2: and m and USC. They did beat USC, but they

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Speaker 2: didn't beat them down. Pitt comes in ranked twenty two,

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Speaker 2: But what really should keep them in this game is

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Speaker 2: the offense. Even when FSU got to Hinchel five times,

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Speaker 2: Pitt was still able to move the ball. Okay, pit

315
00:14:25,680 --> 00:14:28,320
Speaker 2: matches up well against the Notre Dame defense in that

316
00:14:28,360 --> 00:14:30,200
Speaker 2: they pass more than they run. Notre Dame has been

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Speaker 2: much better against the run, and Pitt's defense has been

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Speaker 2: third against the run, albeit against a relatively much weaker

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Speaker 2: strength to schedule than Notre Dame has played. So weird

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Speaker 2: early start on the road for Notre Dame. Pitt's coming

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Speaker 2: off a bye. I want to take Notre Dame because

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Speaker 2: they have to win this game. They got to win

323
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Speaker 2: out and I think, you know, the better they look,

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Speaker 2: the higher their ranking is going to go in, the

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Speaker 2: better seed they're going to be and all that. But

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Speaker 2: give me the points at home for the Panthers. Here,

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Speaker 2: I just think this is too many points to lay,

328
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Speaker 2: coming off with a weird start at a weird time

329
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Speaker 2: on the road. So yeah, I'm gonna go. I'm gonna

330
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Speaker 2: take Pitt and take points at home for them.

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Speaker 1: Is there any interest in the total? Maybe the over

332
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Speaker 1: specifically here bugs at fifty five and a half points

333
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Speaker 1: right now, because I think Notre Dame, like CJ. Carr,

334
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Speaker 1: is looking like the real deal, right like, this guy

335
00:15:18,720 --> 00:15:20,960
Speaker 1: is looking like in the twenty twenty seven class. He

336
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Speaker 1: could be QB one maybe QB two.

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Speaker 4: Of that class.

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Speaker 1: Their passing offense has been way better than it has

339
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Speaker 1: been in years previous. Of course, they still have Jeremiah

340
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Speaker 1: Love and Price to kind of burn some clock there.

341
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Speaker 1: But Pitt also they're getting by more with their passing

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Speaker 1: offense than their rushing offense, more specifically because Reid's been

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Speaker 1: out right.

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Speaker 4: So any interest in the total at all?

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Speaker 3: I don't have any interest in the total. I'll say that, Okay.

346
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Speaker 2: I think we're showing decent value towards Pitt. That's where

347
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Speaker 2: I would stick here. I think the over is the

348
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Speaker 2: play I would want because if Notre Dame does get rolling.

349
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Speaker 2: They're just gonna put up a bunch of points here

350
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Speaker 2: and if that does happen, they'll get rolling both ways.

351
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Speaker 2: But I like pitt coming off the bar to play better,

352
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Speaker 2: so I would probably just stay away from the toll.

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Speaker 1: Okay, Yeah, just wanted to ask, And you know, I'm

354
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Speaker 1: super excited for pitt Man, very happy. College game day

355
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Speaker 1: is going to be there, and uh, what a cool

356
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Speaker 1: scene that's going to be out there in the City

357
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Speaker 1: of Bridges box. Have you've been to Pittsburgh? Yeah, I

358
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Speaker 1: know you're you're a Steelers fan.

359
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Speaker 2: You're a little kid. Okay, a little little kid. I

360
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Speaker 2: was there, but not in a long time.

361
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Speaker 1: So okay, we got to get you out there something.

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Speaker 1: I gotta get you out there. PNC Park great place and.

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Speaker 2: Uh, most beautiful park, Like I want to go. I

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Speaker 2: want to go for PNC almost more than I want

365
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Speaker 2: to go for the Steelers. Like that, that park is awesome.

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Speaker 1: Would you try the Premieni style sandwich with the frieslaw

367
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Speaker 1: on top?

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Speaker 4: Okay, okay, all right.

369
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Speaker 3: Yeah.

370
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Speaker 1: There's some people in this particular company I won't name names,

371
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Speaker 1: Derek Brown, who have not really like to say about.

372
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Speaker 2: But I mean, come on, you know, you're in Pittsburgh

373
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Speaker 2: when in Rome, do as romans exactly.

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Speaker 1: And uh, it's also a vinegar based coal sauce, so

375
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Speaker 1: a little bit, a little bit better, a little bit

376
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Speaker 1: more interesting, a little bit better on a sandwich. I

377
00:16:58,640 --> 00:17:01,600
Speaker 1: think they're over at premier, so let's keep it moving though.

378
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Speaker 1: The key number of six and a half is still

379
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Speaker 1: available if you want the number seventeen USC Trojans at

380
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Speaker 1: home over the six.

381
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Speaker 4: And three Iowa Hawkeyes.

382
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Speaker 1: Coming off that devastating loss at home to the Oregon Ducks,

383
00:17:13,800 --> 00:17:17,000
Speaker 1: Iowa comes in at full strength. USC still has their

384
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Speaker 1: RB one wayman Jordan questionable, along with some defensive two

385
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Speaker 1: deep members.

386
00:17:21,520 --> 00:17:22,720
Speaker 4: BP projections are.

387
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Speaker 1: Saying to stay away, setting this line just under the

388
00:17:25,880 --> 00:17:29,040
Speaker 1: six and a half ticket available. Still, I think given

389
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Speaker 1: how much better USC is scoring at home versus on

390
00:17:32,119 --> 00:17:35,560
Speaker 1: the road, plus I was passing defense significantly.

391
00:17:34,960 --> 00:17:37,800
Speaker 4: Worse on the road. So I'm rolling with the Trojans

392
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Speaker 4: to cover What about you bogs.

393
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Speaker 2: I'm right there with you, and I hate that the

394
00:17:42,400 --> 00:17:44,639
Speaker 2: line hasn't moved no, because I think this is a

395
00:17:44,640 --> 00:17:48,040
Speaker 2: good line. But we don't expect Iowa to quit. But

396
00:17:48,119 --> 00:17:51,280
Speaker 2: this is a rough road spot. After an emotional loss,

397
00:17:51,720 --> 00:17:53,520
Speaker 2: you know that dropped them out of the playoff picture,

398
00:17:53,600 --> 00:17:57,640
Speaker 2: out of the Big ten picture. USC has also shown

399
00:17:57,680 --> 00:18:00,679
Speaker 2: the ability to win these scrappy style of games when

400
00:18:00,680 --> 00:18:03,720
Speaker 2: they beat Nebraska, they beat a strong defense in Michigan,

401
00:18:03,960 --> 00:18:06,560
Speaker 2: And really the two losses that USC has had is

402
00:18:06,560 --> 00:18:09,479
Speaker 2: because they haven't been able to stop their opponent. They

403
00:18:09,480 --> 00:18:11,640
Speaker 2: couldn't stop Illinois, they went for five hundred two yards

404
00:18:11,680 --> 00:18:14,320
Speaker 2: and thirty two points. Notre Dame beat them thirty four

405
00:18:14,359 --> 00:18:15,880
Speaker 2: to twenty four because they were able to put up

406
00:18:15,920 --> 00:18:18,520
Speaker 2: three hundred and six rushing yards us he only had

407
00:18:18,520 --> 00:18:20,119
Speaker 2: the ball for twenty seven minutes in that game.

408
00:18:20,520 --> 00:18:21,640
Speaker 3: This game is likely to.

409
00:18:21,600 --> 00:18:24,560
Speaker 2: Be decided by USC's wide receivers being able to make plays.

410
00:18:24,760 --> 00:18:27,640
Speaker 2: And while Iowa is good, no one has slowed down

411
00:18:28,800 --> 00:18:32,879
Speaker 2: lemon or Lane here. Iowa's quarterbacks Lutmer and Hall are

412
00:18:32,920 --> 00:18:35,040
Speaker 2: going to have their handsful. They've been great all year too,

413
00:18:35,119 --> 00:18:38,840
Speaker 2: so but that's a really good matchup. But USC will

414
00:18:38,880 --> 00:18:41,400
Speaker 2: likely have far more success running the ball, and King

415
00:18:41,480 --> 00:18:44,320
Speaker 2: Miller has been great since saking over for Wyman Jordan.

416
00:18:44,400 --> 00:18:46,960
Speaker 3: As you mentioned Waymond Shordan being out, So I'm still

417
00:18:46,960 --> 00:18:48,440
Speaker 3: gonna lean towards USC.

418
00:18:48,880 --> 00:18:51,920
Speaker 2: I like that it did dip the half point, right,

419
00:18:52,000 --> 00:18:53,960
Speaker 2: because last night when I was looking at this, still

420
00:18:54,040 --> 00:18:56,159
Speaker 2: seven was the best number you could get. So I

421
00:18:56,200 --> 00:18:58,440
Speaker 2: was gonna say, I'm going to alter line this down

422
00:18:58,560 --> 00:19:00,720
Speaker 2: to minus six and a half. But even alt lining it,

423
00:19:01,080 --> 00:19:02,919
Speaker 2: if your number is still a seven, the juice was

424
00:19:02,920 --> 00:19:05,760
Speaker 2: not bad. It's like minus one twenty five. So no

425
00:19:05,760 --> 00:19:08,680
Speaker 2: matter if I'm alting or if this is six and

426
00:19:08,720 --> 00:19:09,520
Speaker 2: a half, is the number.

427
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Speaker 3: Six and a half is the number I have to have.

428
00:19:11,560 --> 00:19:14,399
Speaker 2: Yeahsc here, So that's what I'm gonna do, though, I

429
00:19:14,720 --> 00:19:16,160
Speaker 2: really do like this bet seth.

430
00:19:16,359 --> 00:19:18,199
Speaker 1: Okay, well, I'm right there with you. And what do

431
00:19:18,240 --> 00:19:20,360
Speaker 1: you think USC has to do to make the playoff?

432
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Speaker 1: Is it just win this game against Iowa. They gotta

433
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Speaker 1: beat Oregon and then UCLA and rivalry week right, yep.

434
00:19:26,960 --> 00:19:28,760
Speaker 4: But if they do those three things, do you think

435
00:19:28,760 --> 00:19:29,119
Speaker 4: they're in.

436
00:19:29,640 --> 00:19:30,399
Speaker 3: I think they can be.

437
00:19:30,560 --> 00:19:33,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, Okay, I think maybe need a little little help

438
00:19:33,640 --> 00:19:35,720
Speaker 2: in front of them. But they can't lose another game.

439
00:19:35,880 --> 00:19:38,240
Speaker 3: You know. The next loss for USC is an elimination.

440
00:19:38,680 --> 00:19:41,280
Speaker 1: Yeah. What a turnaround man, it's been, because I think

441
00:19:41,320 --> 00:19:43,800
Speaker 1: this is the least hyped USC.

442
00:19:43,480 --> 00:19:45,080
Speaker 4: Team in what five years?

443
00:19:45,320 --> 00:19:47,840
Speaker 1: All those years with Caleb Williams and the start of

444
00:19:47,840 --> 00:19:48,760
Speaker 1: the Lincoln Riley era.

445
00:19:49,000 --> 00:19:52,280
Speaker 2: They're not quite up to like the great USC teams,

446
00:19:52,320 --> 00:19:54,840
Speaker 2: but yeah, they're way more balanced on offense, and they're

447
00:19:54,880 --> 00:19:56,960
Speaker 2: playing way better on defense this year and the Lincoln

448
00:19:57,040 --> 00:19:59,959
Speaker 2: Riley than they typically have. I ultimately think the defense

449
00:20:00,119 --> 00:20:03,399
Speaker 2: is what gets them, because this is what always gets

450
00:20:03,440 --> 00:20:04,119
Speaker 2: Lincoln Riley.

451
00:20:04,160 --> 00:20:07,520
Speaker 3: T Yeah, right, yeah, but they are way.

452
00:20:07,160 --> 00:20:09,360
Speaker 2: Better and way more balanced of a team than they

453
00:20:09,359 --> 00:20:12,080
Speaker 2: have been under Lincoln Riley. This is probably the best

454
00:20:12,119 --> 00:20:13,399
Speaker 2: USC team they've had under him.

455
00:20:13,800 --> 00:20:16,720
Speaker 1: Tickets must have come in on moneyline A tier overnight

456
00:20:16,920 --> 00:20:19,840
Speaker 1: as the Oklahoma Sooners have moved down to five and

457
00:20:19,880 --> 00:20:22,359
Speaker 1: a half a point of road dogs against the number

458
00:20:22,359 --> 00:20:26,560
Speaker 1: four Alabama Crimson Tide in Tuscaloosa. Oh u's right tackle

459
00:20:26,640 --> 00:20:31,160
Speaker 1: Derek Simmons and their ex wide receiver Keyantes Lewis are questionable. Bama,

460
00:20:31,280 --> 00:20:33,760
Speaker 1: they're at full strength. Besides a few players in the

461
00:20:33,800 --> 00:20:37,119
Speaker 1: defense is too deep that are banged up. BP projections,

462
00:20:37,160 --> 00:20:40,480
Speaker 1: we are showing value that is no longer there right now.

463
00:20:40,520 --> 00:20:42,679
Speaker 1: It's been bet out of this line coming in close

464
00:20:42,760 --> 00:20:45,800
Speaker 1: to the sportsbooks lines right now. So Boggs, do you

465
00:20:45,840 --> 00:20:49,240
Speaker 1: agree that the time to bet oh you was earlier

466
00:20:49,280 --> 00:20:50,360
Speaker 1: in the weekend.

467
00:20:49,920 --> 00:20:51,120
Speaker 4: That this is now a stay away.

468
00:20:51,640 --> 00:20:54,399
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, I haven't changed my mind on the result

469
00:20:54,480 --> 00:20:57,119
Speaker 2: of this game. I still think I would lean towards Oklahoma.

470
00:20:57,240 --> 00:20:57,400
Speaker 3: Right.

471
00:20:57,640 --> 00:21:01,280
Speaker 2: Oklahoma's defense has kept them in games really has. The

472
00:21:01,359 --> 00:21:04,600
Speaker 2: offense has looked way better. I think this game looks

473
00:21:04,600 --> 00:21:07,119
Speaker 2: similar to the old Miss game. Oh you lost that

474
00:21:07,200 --> 00:21:09,160
Speaker 2: one by eight, but they allowed the safety.

475
00:21:09,359 --> 00:21:09,560
Speaker 3: Right.

476
00:21:10,119 --> 00:21:13,399
Speaker 2: Ultimately, it's likely that the passing game for Bama is

477
00:21:13,400 --> 00:21:15,119
Speaker 2: going to be too much for Oklahoma. I think that

478
00:21:15,280 --> 00:21:18,760
Speaker 2: is like the bottom line on this game. But Oklahoma's

479
00:21:18,760 --> 00:21:23,280
Speaker 2: great against Tennessee on offense, but there's still that defense

480
00:21:23,320 --> 00:21:24,560
Speaker 2: heavy team.

481
00:21:24,840 --> 00:21:25,440
Speaker 3: I don't like that.

482
00:21:25,400 --> 00:21:27,720
Speaker 2: Oklahoma's on the road, but it's a midday start, so

483
00:21:27,760 --> 00:21:31,040
Speaker 2: it's not early. Oklahoma has done great work on the road.

484
00:21:31,040 --> 00:21:34,000
Speaker 2: They beat Tennessee, South Carolina, Auburn all on the road,

485
00:21:34,280 --> 00:21:37,960
Speaker 2: the extra week to prepare while Alabama was dealing with LSU,

486
00:21:38,080 --> 00:21:40,879
Speaker 2: and this then being at the end of the Gauntlet

487
00:21:40,920 --> 00:21:44,119
Speaker 2: part of the Alabama schedule. I think is positive for

488
00:21:45,280 --> 00:21:48,560
Speaker 2: Oklahoma as well. Mattier keeps looking better and better the

489
00:21:48,600 --> 00:21:50,920
Speaker 2: further we get away from this thumb surgery. I think

490
00:21:50,920 --> 00:21:53,440
Speaker 2: Bama pulls away in the second half, but I think

491
00:21:53,520 --> 00:21:56,480
Speaker 2: this one is pretty close all the way through, so

492
00:21:56,760 --> 00:22:00,240
Speaker 2: I would still take the points for Oklahoma coming off

493
00:22:00,240 --> 00:22:03,360
Speaker 2: the by just because Bama is not playing their best football.

494
00:22:03,480 --> 00:22:05,960
Speaker 2: South Caroline almost got them. They struggled to move the

495
00:22:05,960 --> 00:22:12,800
Speaker 2: ball against LSU so and really, Oklahoma is a very

496
00:22:12,800 --> 00:22:15,879
Speaker 2: strong defense, and whatever. If your two to one dimensional,

497
00:22:16,160 --> 00:22:18,320
Speaker 2: which Alabama has been because they haven't been able to

498
00:22:18,400 --> 00:22:20,840
Speaker 2: run the ball, I think that pass rush is going

499
00:22:20,880 --> 00:22:23,440
Speaker 2: to get to them and just keep this one tight.

500
00:22:23,560 --> 00:22:25,879
Speaker 2: So I say this one is closer to a field

501
00:22:25,880 --> 00:22:28,560
Speaker 2: goal game or a six point game something like that,

502
00:22:29,240 --> 00:22:32,400
Speaker 2: so I'll lean towards Oklahoma. But like you said, Seth,

503
00:22:32,400 --> 00:22:34,080
Speaker 2: this numbers dropped too much for me to want to

504
00:22:34,119 --> 00:22:34,720
Speaker 2: get invested.

505
00:22:35,240 --> 00:22:37,320
Speaker 1: Okay, and if you want a chance to score this

506
00:22:37,520 --> 00:22:41,600
Speaker 1: Signed Kyn Williams, Los Angeles rams helmet for free courtesy

507
00:22:41,600 --> 00:22:44,560
Speaker 1: of our friends over at Pristineauction dot com. All you

508
00:22:44,640 --> 00:22:47,400
Speaker 1: need to do is head to Bettingpros dot com slash contest,

509
00:22:47,640 --> 00:22:50,240
Speaker 1: complete the form in either a go ahead and download

510
00:22:50,240 --> 00:22:53,280
Speaker 1: the free Betting Pros app, be leave review for the

511
00:22:53,280 --> 00:22:56,399
Speaker 1: Betting Pros podcast, or see subscribe to her social media

512
00:22:56,440 --> 00:22:59,400
Speaker 1: handles we are at betting Pros on X and TikTok

513
00:22:59,400 --> 00:23:02,840
Speaker 1: and at bet Pros NFL on the Instagram. The more

514
00:23:02,880 --> 00:23:05,320
Speaker 1: actions you complete, the more entries you're gonna receive, and

515
00:23:05,359 --> 00:23:08,240
Speaker 1: we will announce a winner right here on the program.

516
00:23:08,280 --> 00:23:10,280
Speaker 1: So make sure you ring the bell so you can

517
00:23:10,320 --> 00:23:12,200
Speaker 1: be alerted when new shows are up and to clean

518
00:23:12,280 --> 00:23:16,600
Speaker 1: your prize if you are that one lucky winner. There's

519
00:23:16,640 --> 00:23:19,560
Speaker 1: been no line movement to speak up in Oxford for win.

520
00:23:19,760 --> 00:23:22,040
Speaker 1: The number six Ole Miss Rebels take on the three

521
00:23:22,119 --> 00:23:24,600
Speaker 1: and six Florida Gators as fifteen and a half to

522
00:23:24,720 --> 00:23:27,320
Speaker 1: sixteen and a half point favorites. The Gators will be

523
00:23:27,440 --> 00:23:30,560
Speaker 1: without their top two wide receivers Eugene Wilson and Dallas

524
00:23:30,600 --> 00:23:33,840
Speaker 1: Wilson for the rest of the season. RB two Jacobi

525
00:23:33,960 --> 00:23:37,960
Speaker 1: Jackson also questionable, plus probably no Caleb Banks still, and

526
00:23:38,160 --> 00:23:40,160
Speaker 1: we still got a ton of injuries in the defense

527
00:23:40,200 --> 00:23:42,800
Speaker 1: as too deep the Revs. Their only injury is their

528
00:23:42,840 --> 00:23:45,639
Speaker 1: starting cornerback Antonio Kite is questionable.

529
00:23:46,119 --> 00:23:47,080
Speaker 4: BP rejections.

530
00:23:47,119 --> 00:23:49,760
Speaker 1: Right now, we have this line at exactly two touchdowns,

531
00:23:49,800 --> 00:23:52,560
Speaker 1: So unless this spread drops like thirteen and a half,

532
00:23:52,600 --> 00:23:53,680
Speaker 1: I think I'm good on this one.

533
00:23:53,720 --> 00:23:54,520
Speaker 4: What about you Scotti.

534
00:23:55,119 --> 00:23:57,600
Speaker 2: I mean, I still I like all miss in this game,

535
00:23:57,920 --> 00:24:02,520
Speaker 2: specifically after what we saw from that embarrassment from Florida

536
00:24:02,680 --> 00:24:04,880
Speaker 2: last week. Yeah, you know, of course I had money

537
00:24:04,920 --> 00:24:08,439
Speaker 2: on them. So maybe this is a bitter Bogman happening

538
00:24:08,560 --> 00:24:10,480
Speaker 2: right here. I just don't think it is. I just

539
00:24:10,560 --> 00:24:13,480
Speaker 2: don't think Florida is going to compete in this game

540
00:24:13,520 --> 00:24:15,560
Speaker 2: at all. And I think you know, all to talk

541
00:24:15,560 --> 00:24:18,600
Speaker 2: about Lane Kiffen wanting to go to LSU or Penn

542
00:24:18,640 --> 00:24:22,320
Speaker 2: State or Florida or all that, I think this could

543
00:24:22,320 --> 00:24:26,320
Speaker 2: be an excellent troll spot for Lane Kiffin to say, look,

544
00:24:27,000 --> 00:24:29,240
Speaker 2: I'm not taking your job and I'm gonna beat the

545
00:24:29,240 --> 00:24:32,639
Speaker 2: brakes off of you, or I want this job and

546
00:24:32,680 --> 00:24:34,600
Speaker 2: this is why, and I'm gonna beat the crap out

547
00:24:34,600 --> 00:24:38,080
Speaker 2: of you, right like, however way you cut it, there's

548
00:24:38,160 --> 00:24:40,640
Speaker 2: motivation for Lane to run the score up in this game,

549
00:24:40,680 --> 00:24:45,080
Speaker 2: and any slight, you know, instigation of wanting him to

550
00:24:45,119 --> 00:24:47,320
Speaker 2: run it up, he does if he's given the chance.

551
00:24:47,400 --> 00:24:50,560
Speaker 2: So Shambliss has been playing great. The blip on the

552
00:24:50,640 --> 00:24:53,360
Speaker 2: radar being that weird Wazoo game, which might have been

553
00:24:53,359 --> 00:24:54,720
Speaker 2: the one. You know, we were talking about that on

554
00:24:54,760 --> 00:24:57,720
Speaker 2: Monday Ole Miss hasn't lost their weird one. Maybe that

555
00:24:57,920 --> 00:25:00,200
Speaker 2: was the weird one right because out of nowhere from

556
00:25:00,240 --> 00:25:03,080
Speaker 2: the top rope, good Washington State actually look good. So

557
00:25:03,359 --> 00:25:05,280
Speaker 2: the bottom line in this game to me is that

558
00:25:05,320 --> 00:25:08,600
Speaker 2: Florida looks like they've given up. We're just, you know,

559
00:25:08,840 --> 00:25:10,840
Speaker 2: a point and a half away from this line in

560
00:25:10,920 --> 00:25:13,800
Speaker 2: BP projections, and it's really hard to factor in. This

561
00:25:13,880 --> 00:25:16,439
Speaker 2: team has given up. Their best players are out, two

562
00:25:16,480 --> 00:25:19,199
Speaker 2: of their best targets are out for the season. A

563
00:25:19,240 --> 00:25:21,199
Speaker 2: lot of guys in the too deep are you know,

564
00:25:21,720 --> 00:25:25,960
Speaker 2: probably have hamstring or calf injuries that you know they're looking.

565
00:25:26,040 --> 00:25:29,399
Speaker 2: They're looking at the transfer portal because their coach was fired.

566
00:25:29,440 --> 00:25:33,040
Speaker 2: So I just think what we saw on Kentucky cannot

567
00:25:33,080 --> 00:25:36,399
Speaker 2: be unseen to me, so expect Florida to play way better.

568
00:25:37,200 --> 00:25:39,960
Speaker 2: But I still think All Miss wins by three touchdowns.

569
00:25:39,960 --> 00:25:42,399
Speaker 2: So gimme All Miss. I'll lay the points.

570
00:25:42,960 --> 00:25:45,400
Speaker 1: I know you can't bet these odds, but right now

571
00:25:45,440 --> 00:25:47,720
Speaker 1: we do have some odds out there for the next

572
00:25:47,760 --> 00:25:49,640
Speaker 1: Florida head coach. If you'd like to take a look

573
00:25:49,680 --> 00:25:52,359
Speaker 1: here at Lane Kiffin minus three hundred. I wouldn't bet that,

574
00:25:52,440 --> 00:25:55,920
Speaker 1: but Eli Drinkwitz right, now plus one twenty James Franklin

575
00:25:56,040 --> 00:25:58,400
Speaker 1: six to one, Jed Fish six to one, Jeff.

576
00:25:58,200 --> 00:25:59,200
Speaker 4: Brom twelve to one.

577
00:25:59,320 --> 00:26:01,600
Speaker 1: So you know, if I could get invested over there,

578
00:26:01,640 --> 00:26:03,639
Speaker 1: maybe I would take a maybe, like a little hit

579
00:26:03,680 --> 00:26:04,880
Speaker 1: on Jetfish or Jeff Brom.

580
00:26:04,920 --> 00:26:05,719
Speaker 4: What do you think I think.

581
00:26:05,840 --> 00:26:08,440
Speaker 3: I don't think Brom is leaving because that's his alma mater.

582
00:26:08,640 --> 00:26:10,880
Speaker 4: You know, A good point, good point, But.

583
00:26:10,920 --> 00:26:14,320
Speaker 2: I think Fish there's been rumors that his family hate Seattle.

584
00:26:14,560 --> 00:26:16,879
Speaker 2: So if that's the case and he gets offered a

585
00:26:16,960 --> 00:26:18,840
Speaker 2: job in the SEC, I think you have to take it.

586
00:26:18,920 --> 00:26:22,560
Speaker 2: So I would say that I know people think Lane again,

587
00:26:23,119 --> 00:26:25,439
Speaker 2: I think Lane has the best job in the SEC

588
00:26:25,560 --> 00:26:29,080
Speaker 2: because expectations aren't crazy high, Like there are Florida and

589
00:26:29,119 --> 00:26:31,680
Speaker 2: A and M and Texas and LSU and Obama, and

590
00:26:32,040 --> 00:26:36,040
Speaker 2: you still recruit with all those teams and you know

591
00:26:36,160 --> 00:26:39,240
Speaker 2: the schedule will get you there if you win. So yeah,

592
00:26:39,320 --> 00:26:42,080
Speaker 2: I still I don't think he moves. I don't think

593
00:26:42,119 --> 00:26:43,880
Speaker 2: there's a good enough reason for him to move.

594
00:26:44,320 --> 00:26:46,639
Speaker 1: Oxford seems like a beautiful place to live too. I

595
00:26:46,640 --> 00:26:48,800
Speaker 1: haven't been there, but just seeing it on college game

596
00:26:48,880 --> 00:26:51,680
Speaker 1: day before and you know all the history within that town.

597
00:26:52,240 --> 00:26:53,800
Speaker 1: The good history of it, right, I know there's some

598
00:26:53,800 --> 00:26:56,879
Speaker 1: bad history too, but the good history of old miss Like,

599
00:26:56,880 --> 00:26:58,760
Speaker 1: it's just it's a really cool place.

600
00:26:58,960 --> 00:27:00,680
Speaker 4: I would love to have you been. You you haven't

601
00:27:00,720 --> 00:27:01,360
Speaker 4: been to Oxford.

602
00:27:01,600 --> 00:27:03,480
Speaker 3: I haven't been to Oxford. I've been in Mississippi.

603
00:27:03,760 --> 00:27:07,440
Speaker 1: So uh, okay, well you might change that soon if

604
00:27:08,000 --> 00:27:09,280
Speaker 1: I thinks shake out a way.

605
00:27:09,480 --> 00:27:12,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, absolute lyas short car ride. Yes.

606
00:27:12,400 --> 00:27:12,800
Speaker 4: Uh.

607
00:27:12,840 --> 00:27:15,280
Speaker 1: We've also seen little to no action come in on

608
00:27:15,320 --> 00:27:18,120
Speaker 1: the Big twelve matchup in McLennan County, where the five

609
00:27:18,160 --> 00:27:20,879
Speaker 1: and four Baylor Bears are still eight and a half

610
00:27:20,920 --> 00:27:23,960
Speaker 1: to nine a half point home dogs against the fifteenth

611
00:27:24,040 --> 00:27:28,000
Speaker 1: ranked at Utah Utes. The UT's wide receiver two Tobias Merriweather,

612
00:27:28,119 --> 00:27:31,639
Speaker 1: he is questionable. Baylor's wide receiver for Kobe Prentice and

613
00:27:31,680 --> 00:27:36,280
Speaker 1: their safety Kendrick Simpkins are questionable as well. BP projections

614
00:27:36,359 --> 00:27:39,439
Speaker 1: right now we're shading some value on the Utes, setting

615
00:27:39,440 --> 00:27:43,520
Speaker 1: them as over ten point favorites, and Baylor being ranked

616
00:27:43,600 --> 00:27:46,040
Speaker 1: right now one hundred and thirteenth against the run Utah

617
00:27:46,119 --> 00:27:48,600
Speaker 1: running more effectively than even some of the service academies

618
00:27:48,720 --> 00:27:50,800
Speaker 1: third in the nation. I'm all the way in on

619
00:27:50,840 --> 00:27:52,879
Speaker 1: the Utes for the first time this season. What's say you,

620
00:27:52,960 --> 00:27:53,920
Speaker 1: Scott Bogman.

621
00:27:53,800 --> 00:27:55,320
Speaker 2: One hundred, This is gonna be my favorite bet of

622
00:27:55,359 --> 00:27:58,240
Speaker 2: the week. Man, I love U saw in this spot.

623
00:27:58,400 --> 00:28:01,520
Speaker 2: Like Utah seven to two against the spread, Baylor is

624
00:28:01,560 --> 00:28:04,639
Speaker 2: two and seven. I honestly think the only thing that

625
00:28:04,680 --> 00:28:07,280
Speaker 2: Baylor really has going for them is that they're at home.

626
00:28:07,680 --> 00:28:10,359
Speaker 2: In this game we also went over on Monday. Utah

627
00:28:10,440 --> 00:28:12,639
Speaker 2: runs close to fifty five percent. Baylor is one hundred

628
00:28:12,640 --> 00:28:14,720
Speaker 2: and thirteenth in run defense, one hundred and sixteenth and

629
00:28:14,800 --> 00:28:18,399
Speaker 2: run d grade. Baylor also passes well fifth in passing

630
00:28:18,480 --> 00:28:21,160
Speaker 2: yards per game, but only sixty third in passing grade.

631
00:28:21,200 --> 00:28:21,360
Speaker 3: Well.

632
00:28:21,480 --> 00:28:25,439
Speaker 2: Utah is six and passing defense statistically, but also a

633
00:28:25,480 --> 00:28:28,160
Speaker 2: lot like Baylor only sixty eighth in grade, so kind

634
00:28:28,160 --> 00:28:30,760
Speaker 2: of still even there. But the line is where the

635
00:28:30,760 --> 00:28:33,560
Speaker 2: difference is made in this one. Utah is fourteenth in sacks,

636
00:28:33,880 --> 00:28:36,239
Speaker 2: seventh in sacks allowed. Baylor is sixty fifth and one

637
00:28:36,280 --> 00:28:40,080
Speaker 2: hundred and twenty ninth. I think we have this as

638
00:28:40,120 --> 00:28:42,680
Speaker 2: a double digit victory for Utah, and I'm gonna stick

639
00:28:42,720 --> 00:28:44,280
Speaker 2: with that, and I'm gonna lay the points. I think

640
00:28:44,360 --> 00:28:48,000
Speaker 2: Utah wins this one going away. You know, Baylor only

641
00:28:48,040 --> 00:28:50,120
Speaker 2: needs one more win to get the ball game, but

642
00:28:50,160 --> 00:28:51,840
Speaker 2: I ain't gonna be this game against Utah.

643
00:28:52,080 --> 00:28:53,800
Speaker 4: Yeah, I have a question for you, Bogs.

644
00:28:53,800 --> 00:28:55,600
Speaker 1: If you can get an eight and a half at

645
00:28:55,600 --> 00:28:57,719
Speaker 1: a book, would you tease that up to that key

646
00:28:57,800 --> 00:28:59,280
Speaker 1: number of nine and a half just to maybe get

647
00:28:59,280 --> 00:29:00,719
Speaker 1: some plus money on that?

648
00:29:00,760 --> 00:29:01,960
Speaker 4: Is that something you'd be interested in?

649
00:29:02,040 --> 00:29:02,240
Speaker 3: Yeah?

650
00:29:02,240 --> 00:29:03,880
Speaker 2: I think they win by two touchdowns. I don't think

651
00:29:03,880 --> 00:29:05,320
Speaker 2: this game is gonna be particularly close.

652
00:29:05,360 --> 00:29:05,520
Speaker 3: Now.

653
00:29:05,720 --> 00:29:08,320
Speaker 2: Baylors took money from me before, so sure, I'll say

654
00:29:08,320 --> 00:29:10,560
Speaker 2: that they are a better team at home, most teams are,

655
00:29:10,840 --> 00:29:13,080
Speaker 2: but I just think the matchup is bad for them

656
00:29:13,440 --> 00:29:15,600
Speaker 2: in this game. I think Utah is rolling. I think

657
00:29:15,720 --> 00:29:18,760
Speaker 2: Utah and Texas Tech are by far the best teams.

658
00:29:18,760 --> 00:29:20,719
Speaker 2: I think you could have thrown ASU in there if

659
00:29:20,720 --> 00:29:24,400
Speaker 2: everybody was healthy, but you know now that Levitt is out,

660
00:29:25,120 --> 00:29:26,240
Speaker 2: they're just not in that group.

661
00:29:26,360 --> 00:29:27,160
Speaker 3: So and we saw.

662
00:29:27,200 --> 00:29:29,880
Speaker 2: I think Texas Tech might be just way better than everybody,

663
00:29:30,040 --> 00:29:32,600
Speaker 2: but Utah such is better than everybody that's not Tech,

664
00:29:32,840 --> 00:29:34,320
Speaker 2: So yeah, I agree.

665
00:29:34,440 --> 00:29:36,920
Speaker 1: I usually like to alt down to key numbers like

666
00:29:36,960 --> 00:29:38,800
Speaker 1: six and a half, but that's a little too much

667
00:29:38,880 --> 00:29:41,640
Speaker 1: juice to drink, and I feel really confident here about Utah,

668
00:29:41,840 --> 00:29:43,600
Speaker 1: So if I can get a little plus money on them,

669
00:29:43,600 --> 00:29:45,280
Speaker 1: I'm gonna try to do that. I think that's gonna

670
00:29:45,280 --> 00:29:47,920
Speaker 1: be my play for this one. And things have also

671
00:29:48,000 --> 00:29:50,760
Speaker 1: been pretty quiet Athens, Georgia so far this week. With

672
00:29:50,960 --> 00:29:54,320
Speaker 1: the number five Georgia Bulldogs, they are still listed as

673
00:29:54,360 --> 00:29:55,960
Speaker 1: five and a half to six and a half point

674
00:29:56,000 --> 00:29:59,680
Speaker 1: favorites against the number ten Texas Longhorns. Texas good news

675
00:29:59,680 --> 00:30:01,920
Speaker 1: for them, man, they should have cornerback Michael Taff and

676
00:30:02,080 --> 00:30:06,040
Speaker 1: wide receiver Ryan Wingo up for this one. Also, Georgia

677
00:30:06,120 --> 00:30:09,480
Speaker 1: their safety Kyen Jones their cornerback to Milio Jones are

678
00:30:09,520 --> 00:30:13,240
Speaker 1: both questionable. BP projections put this at the key number

679
00:30:13,280 --> 00:30:15,440
Speaker 1: of six and a half, so they are saying the

680
00:30:15,480 --> 00:30:18,400
Speaker 1: only real value on the spread maybe to take Georgia

681
00:30:18,440 --> 00:30:19,440
Speaker 1: at five and a half.

682
00:30:19,680 --> 00:30:21,800
Speaker 4: I am not going to do that, but are you Bogs.

683
00:30:22,080 --> 00:30:24,440
Speaker 2: I'm gonna take the over in this game, and I okay,

684
00:30:24,480 --> 00:30:26,320
Speaker 2: I still like the over. Arch has been playing much

685
00:30:26,320 --> 00:30:30,360
Speaker 2: better in the last few weeks and Georgia has put

686
00:30:30,440 --> 00:30:33,000
Speaker 2: up forty in two of their last three. Texas has

687
00:30:33,040 --> 00:30:34,920
Speaker 2: been rough on the road, but we're able to play

688
00:30:34,920 --> 00:30:38,240
Speaker 2: comeback against Mississippi State Texas, the O line has played

689
00:30:38,320 --> 00:30:41,959
Speaker 2: much better than giving arch Way more time, and Georgia

690
00:30:42,000 --> 00:30:44,360
Speaker 2: doesn't rush the passer well at all this season, which

691
00:30:44,400 --> 00:30:47,600
Speaker 2: has been the biggest problem for this Texas offense is

692
00:30:48,080 --> 00:30:51,320
Speaker 2: arch getting hit, taking hits, getting that concussion. You know

693
00:30:51,400 --> 00:30:53,320
Speaker 2: all that, Georgia is one hundred and twenty first and

694
00:30:53,360 --> 00:30:55,000
Speaker 2: sacks per game one hundred and twenty eighth the pass

695
00:30:55,080 --> 00:30:58,080
Speaker 2: rush grade. So obviously a lot of their big pass

696
00:30:58,160 --> 00:31:02,320
Speaker 2: rushers from last year, Michael Williams, Jalen Walker and these

697
00:31:02,320 --> 00:31:05,520
Speaker 2: guys have left Georgia and left them in a hole

698
00:31:05,880 --> 00:31:09,560
Speaker 2: as far as the pass rush goes. So Texas has

699
00:31:09,640 --> 00:31:13,000
Speaker 2: been better against the run, but they also get after

700
00:31:13,000 --> 00:31:16,000
Speaker 2: the quarterback better than anybody at three point seven eight

701
00:31:16,560 --> 00:31:19,600
Speaker 2: sacks per game. Like I said, I think Texas has

702
00:31:19,600 --> 00:31:23,480
Speaker 2: been inconsistent, as a kind description to them all year.

703
00:31:24,000 --> 00:31:27,760
Speaker 2: Georgia has given up some points and played point for points,

704
00:31:27,760 --> 00:31:30,880
Speaker 2: so they are kind of adjustable to their opponent. So

705
00:31:31,200 --> 00:31:33,080
Speaker 2: I just think that Texas is going to be able

706
00:31:33,080 --> 00:31:35,440
Speaker 2: to score a little bit in this game. And I

707
00:31:35,640 --> 00:31:38,800
Speaker 2: don't know that anyone has the capability to stop Gunner

708
00:31:38,840 --> 00:31:42,320
Speaker 2: Stockton right now. Florida slowed him down. But again, they

709
00:31:42,360 --> 00:31:44,719
Speaker 2: could have scored and gone over thirty points in that

710
00:31:44,760 --> 00:31:47,520
Speaker 2: game as well, and they decided to kneel at the end.

711
00:31:47,640 --> 00:31:50,440
Speaker 2: So I like the over in this game, you know,

712
00:31:50,880 --> 00:31:52,760
Speaker 2: And I think that's a result that we get no

713
00:31:52,800 --> 00:31:55,560
Speaker 2: matter which way this goes, with this one probably being

714
00:31:55,600 --> 00:31:58,000
Speaker 2: pretty tight. Both these games are under Both these teams

715
00:31:58,000 --> 00:32:00,280
Speaker 2: are under five hundred against the spread as well. Texas

716
00:32:00,320 --> 00:32:03,360
Speaker 2: two and seven Georgia four and five. Souh probably a

717
00:32:03,400 --> 00:32:05,680
Speaker 2: field goal game one way or the other. So let's

718
00:32:05,720 --> 00:32:06,280
Speaker 2: go with the over.

719
00:32:06,880 --> 00:32:09,600
Speaker 1: I think the only way this doesn't come through is

720
00:32:09,640 --> 00:32:11,560
Speaker 1: if Texas just gets a gun or stocked in a

721
00:32:11,600 --> 00:32:13,600
Speaker 1: ton and they kind of blow them out here, right.

722
00:32:13,640 --> 00:32:16,280
Speaker 1: I think that's because that pass rush is still nasty

723
00:32:16,320 --> 00:32:18,840
Speaker 1: for Texas. I don't know really where the Georgia offensive

724
00:32:18,840 --> 00:32:21,400
Speaker 1: line ranks in terms of protection or sacks allowed, but

725
00:32:21,800 --> 00:32:24,080
Speaker 1: I know Texas is getting after their quarterback better than

726
00:32:24,120 --> 00:32:25,160
Speaker 1: anyone right now, so.

727
00:32:25,320 --> 00:32:29,040
Speaker 2: They really are, and I you know, that could happen.

728
00:32:29,240 --> 00:32:31,479
Speaker 2: But the only game that this really happened for Texas

729
00:32:31,480 --> 00:32:35,120
Speaker 2: this year was against Oklahoma. So let Mississippi State score

730
00:32:35,120 --> 00:32:35,840
Speaker 2: a bunch of points.

731
00:32:36,000 --> 00:32:36,960
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, very fair.

732
00:32:37,000 --> 00:32:38,360
Speaker 3: I think George is gonna be able to score.

733
00:32:38,720 --> 00:32:42,040
Speaker 1: Okay, let's round it out here in provo where the

734
00:32:42,160 --> 00:32:45,440
Speaker 1: spread at shrunk. Actually with the number twelve BYU Cougars,

735
00:32:45,800 --> 00:32:48,080
Speaker 1: they are laying just four and a half points on

736
00:32:48,160 --> 00:32:51,280
Speaker 1: the six and three t sued horn Frogs, TCUs wide

737
00:32:51,280 --> 00:32:54,640
Speaker 1: receiver for Ed Small and their tight end three Lafayette

738
00:32:54,680 --> 00:32:59,440
Speaker 1: Coonwey are questionable. B yu's RB two Siona Moss and

739
00:33:00,040 --> 00:33:03,440
Speaker 1: also defensive tackle an Iper Row and some two deep

740
00:33:03,480 --> 00:33:08,120
Speaker 1: quarterbacks are questionable. BP projections have BYU by four points,

741
00:33:08,440 --> 00:33:11,800
Speaker 1: but TCU's rushing defense actually rated out a lot better

742
00:33:11,880 --> 00:33:15,440
Speaker 1: than I anticipated Bogman, and that's really where BYU seems

743
00:33:15,440 --> 00:33:18,280
Speaker 1: to make most of their home cooking. So for me,

744
00:33:18,360 --> 00:33:20,000
Speaker 1: I'm going to pass on this. I think I was

745
00:33:20,000 --> 00:33:22,000
Speaker 1: on the Cougars earlier this week when we talked, but

746
00:33:22,440 --> 00:33:24,280
Speaker 1: I'm just gonna stay away because I really think the

747
00:33:24,320 --> 00:33:26,680
Speaker 1: way you attack this, TCU teams through the air, and

748
00:33:26,720 --> 00:33:28,760
Speaker 1: I just don't know if by you can do that effectively.

749
00:33:29,560 --> 00:33:30,400
Speaker 1: What about you?

750
00:33:30,440 --> 00:33:31,400
Speaker 4: What do you think on this one?

751
00:33:31,560 --> 00:33:31,680
Speaker 6: Now?

752
00:33:31,760 --> 00:33:34,920
Speaker 2: I'm still on BYU here. TCU is a good offensive squad,

753
00:33:34,960 --> 00:33:37,560
Speaker 2: but BYU has really been winning with defense. Right they

754
00:33:37,680 --> 00:33:40,280
Speaker 2: play great defense, they run the ball. You're absolutely right

755
00:33:40,400 --> 00:33:42,760
Speaker 2: about the offensive side. But the twenty nine points of

756
00:33:42,800 --> 00:33:45,040
Speaker 2: Texas Tech put on BYU last week was the highest

757
00:33:45,120 --> 00:33:47,680
Speaker 2: letal they've given up this year and Tech had to

758
00:33:47,680 --> 00:33:51,680
Speaker 2: settle for field goals on five drives. So I think

759
00:33:51,720 --> 00:33:53,479
Speaker 2: the BYU is going to be able to run the

760
00:33:53,520 --> 00:33:56,840
Speaker 2: ball get it after. Josh Hoover is a way better

761
00:33:56,920 --> 00:34:00,280
Speaker 2: quarterback when he isn't being harassed. But if BYU's front

762
00:34:00,280 --> 00:34:02,640
Speaker 2: seven puts pressure on him, they're going to win this

763
00:34:02,720 --> 00:34:05,800
Speaker 2: by a lot of points. So Hoovers one hundred and

764
00:34:05,800 --> 00:34:08,839
Speaker 2: seventeenth and passer rating under pressure with three big time

765
00:34:08,880 --> 00:34:11,840
Speaker 2: throws and eight turnover worthy plays. That's a nine point

766
00:34:11,960 --> 00:34:16,160
Speaker 2: nine percent turnover worthy play clip when he's being pressured.

767
00:34:16,480 --> 00:34:19,840
Speaker 2: So I think this is a turnover game. This is

768
00:34:19,880 --> 00:34:23,160
Speaker 2: a night game at Provo. I think BYU still has

769
00:34:23,200 --> 00:34:26,280
Speaker 2: a little bit of magic. Obviously, you know, losing that game,

770
00:34:26,800 --> 00:34:30,560
Speaker 2: you might be out of the playoff picture. Now you

771
00:34:30,560 --> 00:34:32,880
Speaker 2: know Tech is going to run to the Big twelve

772
00:34:32,920 --> 00:34:36,760
Speaker 2: title game. It looks like maybe they may be BYU again.

773
00:34:36,800 --> 00:34:41,479
Speaker 2: But I just think that Tech TCU doesn't have enough.

774
00:34:41,600 --> 00:34:45,880
Speaker 2: You know, yes, their run defense has been stout thirty

775
00:34:45,920 --> 00:34:49,000
Speaker 2: fifth in the nation this year, but their strength to

776
00:34:49,040 --> 00:34:53,080
Speaker 2: schedule is just okay, right, So I just don't think

777
00:34:53,120 --> 00:34:54,920
Speaker 2: that this defense is going to be able to slow

778
00:34:54,960 --> 00:34:57,640
Speaker 2: down b YU. I think when you get into those

779
00:34:57,800 --> 00:35:02,319
Speaker 2: really aggressive offensive lines that are big and massive and

780
00:35:02,320 --> 00:35:04,799
Speaker 2: can push you around, I think TCUs can have a

781
00:35:04,800 --> 00:35:07,680
Speaker 2: tough time with BYU's O line. So that's really the

782
00:35:07,680 --> 00:35:10,040
Speaker 2: difference in this game is I think they're gonna harass whover,

783
00:35:10,080 --> 00:35:12,919
Speaker 2: They're gonna be able to push around this O line

784
00:35:12,960 --> 00:35:15,840
Speaker 2: a little bit, and I think BYU wins. Plus it's

785
00:35:15,880 --> 00:35:20,440
Speaker 2: at elevation, Provo is weird at night, so in a

786
00:35:20,480 --> 00:35:21,200
Speaker 2: tough environment.

787
00:35:21,239 --> 00:35:23,080
Speaker 3: So yeah, give me BYU in this game, I'll like.

788
00:35:23,160 --> 00:35:23,440
Speaker 4: Okay.

789
00:35:23,440 --> 00:35:26,360
Speaker 1: So if you want just like maybe the most degenerate

790
00:35:26,400 --> 00:35:28,120
Speaker 1: bet of the weekend, I'm not betting it. I'm not

791
00:35:28,160 --> 00:35:29,840
Speaker 1: really advocating to bet it, but I'm just saying it

792
00:35:29,840 --> 00:35:33,319
Speaker 1: as possible. Take the TCU money line. Put that with

793
00:35:33,480 --> 00:35:36,640
Speaker 1: their Big twelve championship odds. They're two hundred and fifty

794
00:35:36,680 --> 00:35:39,880
Speaker 1: to one right now Bogs to win the championship in

795
00:35:39,960 --> 00:35:42,879
Speaker 1: the conference. So if you think TCU wins this, they're

796
00:35:42,920 --> 00:35:44,640
Speaker 1: still in the in the conference race. And it kind

797
00:35:44,680 --> 00:35:48,240
Speaker 1: of pushes BYU out of it, So I don't know. Interesting,

798
00:35:48,440 --> 00:35:50,200
Speaker 1: you could probably get yourself like a four under one

799
00:35:50,200 --> 00:35:51,319
Speaker 1: ticket or something on that.

800
00:35:51,280 --> 00:35:51,880
Speaker 4: So I like it.

801
00:35:52,400 --> 00:35:56,279
Speaker 2: Yeah, I like be on opposite ends, so I like

802
00:35:56,360 --> 00:35:56,759
Speaker 2: that one.

803
00:35:56,840 --> 00:35:59,000
Speaker 1: We'll see what happens and Bogs, let's get out of

804
00:35:59,040 --> 00:36:01,080
Speaker 1: here on our best of the week.

805
00:36:01,239 --> 00:36:02,320
Speaker 4: Where are you heading, my friend?

806
00:36:03,080 --> 00:36:05,279
Speaker 2: I'm gonna go back to Utah against Baylor. I just

807
00:36:05,320 --> 00:36:09,000
Speaker 2: don't think that, Okay, Baylor matches up very well in

808
00:36:09,080 --> 00:36:11,719
Speaker 2: this game at all. I know, like we said, I

809
00:36:11,760 --> 00:36:14,279
Speaker 2: think the only thing they have going for them is

810
00:36:14,560 --> 00:36:16,879
Speaker 2: that they are at home. So I just think they're

811
00:36:16,920 --> 00:36:19,080
Speaker 2: going to be outclassed in this one. And I don't

812
00:36:19,080 --> 00:36:20,560
Speaker 2: think it's going to be particularly close.

813
00:36:21,280 --> 00:36:23,080
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, I love that bet.

814
00:36:23,120 --> 00:36:25,880
Speaker 1: I'm glad we're squad riding on that one and maybe

815
00:36:25,920 --> 00:36:27,759
Speaker 1: another one I could get you a squad right. I'm

816
00:36:27,800 --> 00:36:30,560
Speaker 1: going with for my best bet the New Mexico State

817
00:36:30,680 --> 00:36:34,000
Speaker 1: versus Tennessee over sixty one and a half minus one

818
00:36:34,080 --> 00:36:36,960
Speaker 1: ten right now over at hard Rock Bet, and I'm

819
00:36:37,000 --> 00:36:40,160
Speaker 1: trying to attack a total in this rare non con

820
00:36:40,280 --> 00:36:43,440
Speaker 1: game all the way in Week twelve, specifically because Joey

821
00:36:43,480 --> 00:36:46,239
Speaker 1: aglor This guy's been slinging the paill over the place

822
00:36:46,280 --> 00:36:50,000
Speaker 1: this season. With Tennessee currently ranked second in passing, he

823
00:36:50,080 --> 00:36:52,240
Speaker 1: now gets to the treat of attacking the one hundred

824
00:36:52,280 --> 00:36:55,560
Speaker 1: and ninth ranked passing defense with the help of Chris

825
00:36:55,600 --> 00:36:59,480
Speaker 1: Brazl Brayln Staley of course and company. Tennessee seven to

826
00:36:59,480 --> 00:37:02,560
Speaker 1: two to the over. That's partially because their defense also

827
00:37:02,640 --> 00:37:04,960
Speaker 1: kind of stinks as well. Fifty ninth against the run,

828
00:37:05,000 --> 00:37:07,640
Speaker 1: one hundred and sixteenth against the pass, and the lowest

829
00:37:07,680 --> 00:37:11,200
Speaker 1: amount of points their defense has led up this season seventeen,

830
00:37:11,320 --> 00:37:14,520
Speaker 1: and that was to an SCS team East Tennessee State.

831
00:37:14,680 --> 00:37:17,600
Speaker 1: So with New Mexico State ranking bottom three in the

832
00:37:17,640 --> 00:37:21,800
Speaker 1: country in rushing and being mismatched up front, I'm expecting

833
00:37:21,840 --> 00:37:24,440
Speaker 1: the only way they can stay even putting up at

834
00:37:24,440 --> 00:37:26,200
Speaker 1: any points in this game is going to be airing

835
00:37:26,280 --> 00:37:28,920
Speaker 1: it out, where Tennessee has struggled a bit on defense,

836
00:37:29,040 --> 00:37:31,640
Speaker 1: So I thought initially maybe I would take the Tennessee

837
00:37:31,640 --> 00:37:34,000
Speaker 1: team total, but I think their defense is bad enough

838
00:37:34,040 --> 00:37:36,759
Speaker 1: to let up seventeen maybe twenty some points from New

839
00:37:36,800 --> 00:37:40,360
Speaker 1: Mexico State. So Tennessee also fourth and paced New Mexico

840
00:37:40,440 --> 00:37:44,000
Speaker 1: State thirty ninth. The Balls have the sixteenth ranked third

841
00:37:44,040 --> 00:37:47,320
Speaker 1: down conversion rate in the country right now, New Mexico

842
00:37:47,480 --> 00:37:50,319
Speaker 1: their defense is allowing the fortieth highest third down conversion rate,

843
00:37:50,440 --> 00:37:51,800
Speaker 1: So that's where I'm heading.

844
00:37:51,600 --> 00:37:52,480
Speaker 4: For my best bet of the week.

845
00:37:52,600 --> 00:37:55,080
Speaker 1: Wasn't good on the total last week with Temple and Army,

846
00:37:55,120 --> 00:37:57,879
Speaker 1: but maybe a little better luck here in Knoxville Bugs.

847
00:37:57,800 --> 00:38:01,000
Speaker 2: Plus two sixty five if you combine these and look,

848
00:38:01,040 --> 00:38:03,600
Speaker 2: Tennessee is going to do the heavy lifting here, right,

849
00:38:03,680 --> 00:38:05,719
Speaker 2: Like that's the thing, as long as they don't pull

850
00:38:05,760 --> 00:38:09,200
Speaker 2: off the gas. And this is a hey, look we're angry.

851
00:38:09,239 --> 00:38:11,360
Speaker 2: We just lost at home to Oklahoma game right, so

852
00:38:11,600 --> 00:38:14,239
Speaker 2: let's get back on track. Let's look good everyone, and

853
00:38:15,719 --> 00:38:18,640
Speaker 2: some pick sixes could happen in this game as well.

854
00:38:18,760 --> 00:38:20,440
Speaker 2: Could you get New Mexico out of what they like

855
00:38:20,520 --> 00:38:25,600
Speaker 2: to do short fields run up the score. I don't

856
00:38:25,800 --> 00:38:29,680
Speaker 2: like going over in massively lopsided games like this where

857
00:38:29,680 --> 00:38:33,200
Speaker 2: one game because you see them pull up at the end.

858
00:38:33,280 --> 00:38:35,719
Speaker 2: But we've seen them pull up at the end this year,

859
00:38:35,840 --> 00:38:38,560
Speaker 2: and it's Kentucky scoring a bunch of points late, right,

860
00:38:38,640 --> 00:38:41,200
Speaker 2: It's other teams scoring a bunch of points late. So

861
00:38:41,320 --> 00:38:45,120
Speaker 2: it all it is is can we get seventeen points?

862
00:38:45,840 --> 00:38:47,760
Speaker 2: Can we get seventeen points out of New Mexico?

863
00:38:47,920 --> 00:38:48,520
Speaker 3: Staying here?

864
00:38:48,560 --> 00:38:50,799
Speaker 2: So like, if we can get that, I think we're

865
00:38:50,840 --> 00:38:53,120
Speaker 2: going to get there, So I like this bet as well.

866
00:38:53,600 --> 00:38:55,680
Speaker 1: Okay, all right, well that'll do it for us on

867
00:38:55,760 --> 00:38:58,960
Speaker 1: this episode of the Betting Pros College Football Show. Still

868
00:38:59,000 --> 00:39:01,360
Speaker 1: to come later this week. Every week right here on

869
00:39:01,360 --> 00:39:04,239
Speaker 1: the BP YouTube channel and the audio feed bogs best

870
00:39:04,239 --> 00:39:06,360
Speaker 1: bets and a player prop pick, So looking forward to

871
00:39:06,360 --> 00:39:08,840
Speaker 1: that coming out on Friday. Let us know down the

872
00:39:08,840 --> 00:39:11,520
Speaker 1: comments below your favorite week twelve picks, and while you're here,

873
00:39:11,680 --> 00:39:14,400
Speaker 1: make sure you're smashing that like button and subscribing to

874
00:39:14,480 --> 00:39:16,959
Speaker 1: the channel. If you're new for Scott Bogman, I'm Seth

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