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Speaker 3: Welcome to the Tuesday edition of Balance of Power. It's
Speaker 3: only Tuesday here on Bloomberg Radio, on the satellite and
Speaker 3: on YouTube where you can find us. Now is perfect
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Speaker 3: find our live stream and we always save a seat
Speaker 3: for you here in the studio in Washington. So this
Speaker 3: is it. We finally have a sense of what's going
Speaker 3: to happen this week when it comes to Ukraine, Israel,
Speaker 3: and yes, Taiwan, just don't ask me about the border.
Speaker 3: Remembering this whole situation involving speaker Mike Johnson with a
Speaker 3: motion to vacate hanging over his head Marjorie Taylor Green
Speaker 3: threatening to fire him if he brings a Ukraine funding
Speaker 3: bill to the floor, and it's going to happen. There's
Speaker 3: been a lot of questions about in what form and when,
Speaker 3: and we did hear from the Speaker. He came to
Speaker 3: terms with his conference and his fellow leaders last night,
Speaker 3: and as we learned this morning, he's going to take
Speaker 3: the Frankenstein approach, put this together limb by limb, and
Speaker 3: then assemble the body later. Here's the Speaker of the House.
Speaker 4: I put out a preliminary plan, as you all know,
Speaker 4: on these measures to handle these matters from Israel to
Speaker 4: Ukraine to the Indo Pacific region. And the fourth bill
Speaker 4: in this package would be our priorities, which is the
Speaker 4: REPO Act, and we implement the loan concept and all
Speaker 4: of this in the supplemental discussion. But the will of
Speaker 4: this of our body is to find every possible way,
Speaker 4: using this legislation and every legislation that we pass, to
Speaker 4: try to use as leverage to get the administration to
Speaker 4: get control of that border.
Speaker 3: I'm still not sure how we get around on the
Speaker 3: border here, because there was a border provision, as we
Speaker 3: all know, in the Senate bill that had all of
Speaker 3: these same components, and that was declared DOA in the
Speaker 3: House as soon as it passed the Senate following months
Speaker 3: of negotiations between Republicans and Democrats. Problem here is, we
Speaker 3: don't know if all these can pass, and we don't
Speaker 3: know if the speaker can survive them. Marjorie Taylor Green,
Speaker 3: who again you know, has the motion to vacate here
Speaker 3: and by the way, has another lawmaker on her side today,
Speaker 3: labeled Johnson's plan a scam and says she is firmly
Speaker 3: against it. I support the majority, she writes, and I
Speaker 3: want it next time, so I'm being careful. Maybe that
Speaker 3: means he's safe after his trip to Moro a Lago
Speaker 3: last weekend. Let's get into this with Megan Scully, who
Speaker 3: leads our congressional coverage here in Washington, and my goodness,
Speaker 3: just another two day for you, I guess, Megan, great
Speaker 3: to see you. But we now know at least the
Speaker 3: form this might take. I mentioned the Frankenstein approach. Is
Speaker 3: it the Humpty dumpty approach? Maybe, as we have to
Speaker 3: put him all back together again.
Speaker 5: I think eventually they will need to put it all
Speaker 5: back together again to get it.
Speaker 3: Through the Senate.
Speaker 5: Right now, they're taking it apart, piece by piece, like
Speaker 5: you said, essentially to try to get it through the House.
Speaker 5: You know, Ukraine will pass the House on the backs
Speaker 5: of democratic support. Israel will pass the House on the
Speaker 5: backs of Republican and majority Democrats support, with progressives likely
Speaker 5: voting against it. So you have this kind of fragile
Speaker 5: coalition that he's trying to weave together on each of
Speaker 5: these bills. So then it's a matter of do you
Speaker 5: package them all together to try to get them through
Speaker 5: the Senate, which has its own hurdles. It's going to
Speaker 5: be incredibly messy, and we don't even have all the
Speaker 5: details yet.
Speaker 3: So is this small Do we believe that the combined
Speaker 3: bill in fact would fail or was that just a
Speaker 3: maneuver by Mike Johnson to keep his job. A lot
Speaker 3: of Freedom Caucus other conservative Republicans said we'll never vote
Speaker 3: for that.
Speaker 5: So the issue in the House is this procedural hurdle
Speaker 5: that Mike Johnson keeps losing getting things out of the
Speaker 5: Rules Committee, which controls floor debate, and then the rule
Speaker 5: which required which Democrats traditionally vote against because they don't
Speaker 5: like amendments that were not offered or that were offered,
Speaker 5: and then that usually fails along party line. So clearing
Speaker 5: that hurdle with Republican support on a big piece of
Speaker 5: legislation is incredibly difficult. So that's why we keep seeing
Speaker 5: these defeats on the floor. There's talk of Democrats actually
Speaker 5: supporting a rule which you know, to you and I
Speaker 5: doesn't seem like a big deal but actually is pretty
Speaker 5: different than this the norm. Yeah, any kind of bipartisanship
Speaker 5: advances it. So it's incredibly complicate trying to get this through.
Speaker 5: This is probably his best chance of getting through Ukraine.
Speaker 5: And so that's the way that it's going. It's going
Speaker 5: to be a long and ugly week. These votes are
Speaker 5: probably going to be late on Friday, and then they
Speaker 5: still need to.
Speaker 6: Go through this.
Speaker 3: They're supposedly going on recess at the end of this week, right,
Speaker 3: so we've got a working weekend. Maybe it's feeling like
Speaker 3: what about the motion of VAK. Tom Massey has apparently
Speaker 3: signed on or is willing to co sponsor this with
Speaker 3: Marjorie Taylor Green. This speaker is going to have a
Speaker 3: majority of one come Friday, Is it real or does
Speaker 3: he know Democrats will probably be there to save him,
Speaker 3: either by staying home and changing the math or voting
Speaker 3: to support him.
Speaker 5: So it's there's at least one Democrat who has said
Speaker 5: that he will vote to save Mike Johnson, and that's
Speaker 5: shared Moskowitz, and there are some others that we expect
Speaker 5: might if Johnson does survive this Ouster threat on the
Speaker 5: backs of Democratic support. He's still the speaker, but he's
Speaker 5: essentially the speaker in name only.
Speaker 3: Well, so he does himself in if it takes Democrats
Speaker 3: to protect him.
Speaker 5: Yes, I think he's probably vacating that office at the
Speaker 5: end of this.
Speaker 3: Can we believe then that Donald Trump will protect him?
Speaker 3: Did he make a deal with Trump last weekend at
Speaker 3: mar A Lago to keep Marjorie Taylor Green off his back?
Speaker 4: So?
Speaker 5: Trump certainly did Johnson a favor at mar Alago and
Speaker 5: went as far as anyone expected him to, probably further
Speaker 5: than many of us did expect him to, you know,
Speaker 5: in terms of embracing Johnson. But that doesn't mean that
Speaker 5: that still holds true today. We know that Trump's opinions
Speaker 5: about people can change pretty wildly, so it will be
Speaker 5: interesting to see how this all plays out.
Speaker 3: God knows, And you've got a week ahead, Megan. Great
Speaker 3: to see you and thank you for the insights. Megan
Speaker 3: Scully leading our coverage here on the Terminal and online,
Speaker 3: as we now have a sense of the what and when,
Speaker 3: just a question of whether this is actually going to work.
Speaker 3: But it looks like at least for spending bills. And
Speaker 3: as we just heard from Megan, will be voting likely
Speaker 3: by the end of the week, so don't pack your
Speaker 3: bags for recess yet. And as Donald Trump looms over
Speaker 3: the House agenda, a pretty incredible day yesterday, even though
Speaker 3: we're all used to seeing him in court becoming the
Speaker 3: first former American president, as you keep hearing to go
Speaker 3: on criminal trial, it's just different when it happens. And
Speaker 3: looking at those images of him scowling in the courtroom
Speaker 3: make you wonder if he continues to raise money on this,
Speaker 3: whether there is actually a backlash here for the broader
Speaker 3: public as this now becomes a general election battle where
Speaker 3: one is attempting to gain votes. Brings us to the
Speaker 3: latest Siena poll. Important we mentioned it yesterday. We have
Speaker 3: an opportunity to take the deep dive now with Don Levy.
Speaker 3: It's always great to have him with us, director of
Speaker 3: the Siena College Research Institute. As we read in their
Speaker 3: partner New York Times publication here, the President's pot already
Speaker 3: ticking up slightly. This is looking kind of like a tie.
Speaker 3: Mister Biden, mister Trump virtually tied with Trump at forty
Speaker 3: six percent to forty five percent, an improvement for Biden
Speaker 3: from late February when it was forty eight to forty three.
Speaker 3: There's a lot more under the hood, though, and that's
Speaker 3: why it's great to have you with us. Don Good
Speaker 3: to see you. Welcome back to Bloomberg. Let's just start
Speaker 3: with the headline. Is this the post State of the
Speaker 3: Union bump everybody was looking for?
Speaker 7: It appears to be. Certainly. We see Biden picking up
Speaker 7: with a couple of key constituencies, doing better with women,
Speaker 7: doing better with the black voters, and doing better with
Speaker 7: Latino voters. So a four point closing from five, which
Speaker 7: sounded like a big lead down to one, which I
Speaker 7: think you're absolutely right, is a tie. So at this
Speaker 7: point in time, you know, Biden over the past six
Speaker 7: weeks has picked up some support. Still, you know, both
Speaker 7: candidates have have tremendous hurdles overcome. You Know, one thing
Speaker 7: that stood out in this poll to us was the
Speaker 7: folks who we describe as double haters, those voters who
Speaker 7: say that they don't like either of the two candidates.
Speaker 7: That's a full eighteen percent of Americans right now, and
Speaker 7: right now when you look at that group of people,
Speaker 7: and they're a little bit of everyone, They're not just
Speaker 7: one demographic. But thirty percent of double haters say that
Speaker 7: they would vote for Biden. Twenty one percent of double
Speaker 7: haters say that they would vote for mister Trump. But
Speaker 7: nearly half of double haters say either I don't know,
Speaker 7: or I might vote for a third candidate, or I
Speaker 7: might stay home. And that's where a great deal of
Speaker 7: this battle is going to be. Wigs is amongst that
Speaker 7: group of double haters.
Speaker 3: Boy, and what a feast the double haters are going
Speaker 3: to have. Donald Trump is going to be in court,
Speaker 3: scowling at the camera and talking to reporters in the
Speaker 3: lobby of a courthouse, presumably, and Joe Biden is going
Speaker 3: to be apparently caught in a geopolitical morass with high
Speaker 3: risk in the Middle East, big questions about what's happening
Speaker 3: in Ukraine, questions about inflation here at home done. How
Speaker 3: do you break through with a double hater? If those
Speaker 3: are your choices, it's arguably getting worse for both of them. Well.
Speaker 7: An interesting question that we asked people was whether they
Speaker 7: thought that Trump and or Biden were either a safe
Speaker 7: or a risky choice for America for them, And interestingly,
Speaker 7: amongst the double haters, they think both candidates are risky.
Speaker 7: Trump slightly more risky than Biden, but Biden does not
Speaker 7: win amongst the double haters on being a safer choice.
Speaker 7: And you really lay out this tug of war that
Speaker 7: we're seeing on issues. We saw in this poll that
Speaker 7: when you started bringing up the economy, that Trump beats
Speaker 7: Biden all over on the economy, Americans remember Trump years
Speaker 7: as being better. They think that far and away. Two
Speaker 7: thirds say that they have prove of the job that
Speaker 7: Donald Trump did on the economy when he was president.
Speaker 7: Two thirds say they disapprove of the job that Joe
Speaker 7: Biden is doing on the economy. So when it comes
Speaker 7: to economic issues, that's a tremendous weakness for Biden, tremendous
Speaker 7: strength to Trump. Then you flip it over to the trial,
Speaker 7: and there we continue to see, for the third survey
Speaker 7: in a row that a majority of Americans say that
Speaker 7: they think Donald Trump committed serious federal crimes. And when
Speaker 7: you come to this trial taking place in New York
Speaker 7: right now, a plurality, not quite a majority, but a
Speaker 7: plurality by about ten points feels as though he's guilty,
Speaker 7: and they predict that he may very well be found
Speaker 7: guilty in this trial in New York.
Speaker 3: Remarkable to see this balancing act, or maybe it's compartmentalization.
Speaker 3: Don You mentioned the economy here, and it's amazing what
Speaker 3: people's memories will do. To your point, they associate a
Speaker 3: better economy, a stronger economy with Donald Trump, though by
Speaker 3: some metrics Joe Biden has a stronger economy. It depends
Speaker 3: when you're looking at here. But of course, you know,
Speaker 3: you go back to four years ago if you do
Speaker 3: this whole you know, four year ago thing, and that's
Speaker 3: what people are going to be asking, if God forbid,
Speaker 3: we ever have a real debate. Are you better off
Speaker 3: than you were four years ago? We were in the
Speaker 3: throes of a pandemic. People were not able to live
Speaker 3: their lives the way they are now. We were talking
Speaker 3: about closures, shutdowns, lack of supplies. How does Joe Biden
Speaker 3: remind people of that? And I guess our memories of
Speaker 3: short are short. It's amazing to me that that doesn't
Speaker 3: seem to show up in the polls. You found a
Speaker 3: big increase nine points in registered voters who believe that
Speaker 3: Donald Trump left the country better off.
Speaker 6: Yeah.
Speaker 7: Absolutely. When you say is the country better off or
Speaker 7: did he leave it better off? Or the Trump year
Speaker 7: is mostly good or mostly bad? By nine points, Americans
Speaker 7: say that the Trump years were mostly good rather than bad.
Speaker 7: And you flip that around to right now and a
Speaker 7: negative twenty one points when you're asking Americans do you
Speaker 7: think that the Biden years are good or bad? You know,
Speaker 7: I think that Biden is fighting the curse of the
Speaker 7: grocery store and now the increased prices that every American
Speaker 7: faces on their groceries their other monthly necessities is just
Speaker 7: weighing them down. And they don't believe right now that
Speaker 7: the economy is better and they're overwhelmingly said. We saw
Speaker 7: a six point increase in the percentages of Americans from
Speaker 7: this survey to one just in February who say that
Speaker 7: they think the American economy is no better than only
Speaker 7: fair or poor. It's slipping away even more in the
Speaker 7: eyes of voters.
Speaker 3: We've spent some time in our last minute here don
Speaker 3: talking about the value of national polls. How should we
Speaker 3: interpret these numbers as we work our way through the
Speaker 3: rest of this cycle here Knowing there are a swing
Speaker 3: state we have at Bloomberg. Different snapshots tell you different things.
Speaker 7: Well, certainly the National Post give you a feel of
Speaker 7: how the country is. It contributes towards the national conversation.
Speaker 7: But you're absolutely right, we're going to hone in on
Speaker 7: these battleground states. We'll be pulling those battleground states starting
Speaker 7: in about two weeks from right now. Right now, it
Speaker 7: looks like the battleground is perhaps growing. North Carolina is
Speaker 7: trying to fight its way in to be a battleground state.
Speaker 7: We had six, now we're looking at seven. And we'll
Speaker 7: be talking more in that next ball about the push
Speaker 7: pull not only between the economy and threats to democracy
Speaker 7: the former president on trial, but also the issue of abortion,
Speaker 7: which is going to loom very large in each and
Speaker 7: every one of these battleground states. And it's going to
Speaker 7: add another dimension that these candidates are going to have
Speaker 7: to fight over to convince Americans that they're better on
Speaker 7: the interests of each of these voters in the battleground states.
Speaker 3: Well, maybe bloombergers I have its time with North Carolin
Speaker 3: and Don Levy. It's great to see again from Siana College.
Speaker 3: Great work and great to share your results with our audience.
Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast Ken
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Speaker 2: Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 3: As we try to imagine if Mike Johnson is capable
Speaker 3: of reverse engineering a foreign aid bill that's already passed
Speaker 3: the Senate, we're going Frankenstein style here, lim By Lim, Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan,
Speaker 3: each with their own constituencies. They presumably pass as separate
Speaker 3: spending bills and then are somehow stitched back together, put
Speaker 3: on the table and brought to life in the United
Speaker 3: States Senate. That's the best case scenario. Mike Johnson's doing
Speaker 3: this now. He actually just outlined this whole plan with
Speaker 3: a motion to vacate hanging over his head. Listen to
Speaker 3: the speaker before we assemble our panel for the baseline.
Speaker 3: This is the news that came out this morning on
Speaker 3: his path forward. Let's listen.
Speaker 4: I put out a preliminary plan, as you all know,
Speaker 4: on these measures to handle these matters from Israel to
Speaker 4: Ukraine to the Indo Pacific Region. And the fourth bill
Speaker 4: in this package would be our Priorities, which is the
Speaker 4: REPO Act, and we implement the loan concept and all
Speaker 4: of this and the supplemental discussion. But the will of
Speaker 4: our body is to find every possible way using this
Speaker 4: legislation and every legislation that we pass, to try to
Speaker 4: use as leverage to get the administration to get control
Speaker 4: of that border.
Speaker 3: But will it work? What if one of them fails?
Speaker 3: What if they all fail? Or does Mike Johnson look
Speaker 3: like a genius when this is done because somehow they
Speaker 3: all pass, knowing that each quarter had opposition to one
Speaker 3: or the other, and then he brings the body back
Speaker 3: to life. Let's assemble the panel. Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzana.
Speaker 3: We've been waiting months like you and I have been
Speaker 3: to find out how this is all going to work.
Speaker 3: Our signature panel back with us today, Rick Davis, smart
Speaker 3: move for Mike Johnson. What do you make of this?
Speaker 6: You know, I think anything that gets this bill moving,
Speaker 6: or this you know series of bills moving and fund
Speaker 6: Ukraine is a step in the right direction. But you
Speaker 6: just mentioned this has been months in the works. How
Speaker 6: many Ukrainians have lost their lives because of lack of
Speaker 6: ammunition and an ability to fight the Russians the way
Speaker 6: we had wanted them to all along. I mean, this
Speaker 6: is this is not progress. This is the end of
Speaker 6: a painful and horrific process that showed weakness within the
Speaker 6: United States toward our allies. That no good thing will
Speaker 6: come out of this other than getting this over with,
Speaker 6: and hopefully the Speaker has the ability to marshal the
Speaker 6: resources when there's caucus actually get these votes done this
Speaker 6: week before they leave for recess. This is the second
Speaker 6: recess in a month that they'll be going on, and
Speaker 6: the last one they took for two weeks resulted in
Speaker 6: nothing happening. So I'm not going to bank on this
Speaker 6: until it's done. But it sounds like basically the same
Speaker 6: bill the Senate sent them months ago that could have
Speaker 6: been done over with without having to deal with this
Speaker 6: current situation.
Speaker 3: In pieces without the border. I guess, Genie, I'm trying
Speaker 3: to figure out if Mike Johnson is making his life
Speaker 3: more difficult here or if this is just the only
Speaker 3: way to get it done in the House. What do
Speaker 3: you make of this? Knowing that progressives had a problem
Speaker 3: with Israel, that some conservative Republicans had a problem with Ukraine.
Speaker 3: Is this in fact the only path?
Speaker 7: Joe?
Speaker 1: I first have to say, you made me laugh out
Speaker 1: loud earlier when you said the Frankenstein approach and then
Speaker 1: the humpty dumpty. I don't know if you crain, but
Speaker 1: those are great out loud listening to you.
Speaker 3: So can they put him back together again? Genie?
Speaker 1: It is perfect, Joe. And you know, my sense is
Speaker 1: that this sort of approach worked with the lattered cr
Speaker 1: which when when not McCarthy Johnson came up with it,
Speaker 1: I scratched my head and then we all learned what
Speaker 1: it was. And so I think he's trying to repeat
Speaker 1: here with this idea that, in your words, you can
Speaker 1: break it up and put it back together again. And
Speaker 1: I noted a glimmer of hope this morning as this
Speaker 1: was discussed, but that quickly has gone by the wayside.
Speaker 1: I mean, we've heard from Tom Massey that this is
Speaker 1: basically just handing everything over that Chuck Schumer wants, and
Speaker 1: he'll go with Marjorie Taylor Green. You know, we've heard
Speaker 1: Andy Biggs maybe and no, you know, he is on
Speaker 1: very very thin ice here, and so I don't know
Speaker 1: if this approach is going to work. The easiest path
Speaker 1: is to pass the Senate bill. That's the quickest way
Speaker 1: to get this done. But of course he doesn't think
Speaker 1: that his caucus has the will to do that. So
Speaker 1: here we are, and I am not convinced this is
Speaker 1: going to work.
Speaker 3: Glad you mentioned Andy Biggs. Of course at the helm
Speaker 3: of the Freedom Caucus out with a long Twitter thread,
Speaker 3: I supported the planned Speaker Johnson announced in conference to
Speaker 3: allow the House to vote on the various aid packages separately,
Speaker 3: he says, but his sense announced intent to merge them
Speaker 3: together superfluous word there before sending them to the Senate
Speaker 3: is wrong. So I'm getting confused here, Rick. Maybe he
Speaker 3: really is making his life more difficult. So you pass
Speaker 3: all four of these, what if you cannot stitch them
Speaker 3: back together with some weird parliamentary maneuver? Is the Senate
Speaker 3: and a clearer than one by one?
Speaker 6: Yeah? I mean these bills would all pass the Senate.
Speaker 6: Remember the bill that they passed initially had all of this,
Speaker 6: including controversial border security measures, passed with seventy percent of
Speaker 6: the United States Senate, and the Senate has been very
Speaker 6: impatient in this process trying to get this off their docket,
Speaker 6: because as you point out in the last segment, they
Speaker 6: got a lot of other business to do. This was
Speaker 6: supposed to be the easy thing to handle, the supplemental
Speaker 6: So at the end of the day, I don't think
Speaker 6: there's going to be much of a hurdle in the Senate.
Speaker 6: Maybe a few people who want to take a hike
Speaker 6: because the complexity around election year politics. But at the
Speaker 6: end of the day, the Senate wants this ninety five
Speaker 6: billion dollars to be spent in these priority areas, and
Speaker 6: as long as the House bills do that, either independently
Speaker 6: or as a total package, then I think all this
Speaker 6: stuff sort of gets through quickly. It doesn't make any
Speaker 6: sense what Johnson's doing other than the other version of
Speaker 6: the Frankenstein strategy, which is the guy you create kills you.
Speaker 6: I mean, maybe these bills this process is creating is
Speaker 6: going to come back and kill him. That's what I
Speaker 6: thought you were dalkingo. And so look, I mean he's
Speaker 6: doing all this to avoid, you know, a motion to
Speaker 6: vacate that's already sitting on the table by Marjorie Taylor Green.
Speaker 6: So what to be more interesting to me is whether
Speaker 6: these Freedom Caucus types and Marjorie Taylor Green band together
Speaker 6: for a little, you know, reunion party and actually take
Speaker 6: down this speaker.
Speaker 3: Rick just completed the analogy for us. Now we've been
Speaker 3: made whole here in just our first hour. What a
Speaker 3: productive conversation. As always with our panel, Rick Davis and
Speaker 3: Genie Shanzeno. Democrats come in to play here. Potentially, it's
Speaker 3: just a question of how many he will need, Genie,
Speaker 3: if he can't get a rule passed, and we're just
Speaker 3: going to walk out here for a second. This speaker's
Speaker 3: had a real problem with the Rules Committee. You've got
Speaker 3: people like Chip Roy and others on the committee who
Speaker 3: do not want to see a lot of this take place.
Speaker 3: If he can't get a rule, which is how you
Speaker 3: get a bill on the floor, a schoolhouse rock. That
Speaker 3: means he has to suspend the rules, and then it's
Speaker 3: a question of whether Democrats will be there for him.
Speaker 3: Will they?
Speaker 2: You know?
Speaker 1: I am not sure. I am, as usual, less optimistic
Speaker 1: than Rick sounds that this is going to be easy
Speaker 1: by any stretch of the imagination. You know, the reality
Speaker 1: is we haven't seen the bill yet. There is no
Speaker 1: text there number one, number two. I'm not so sure
Speaker 1: this is going to be that easy to put together.
Speaker 1: If they pass it in the House, which is a
Speaker 1: big if.
Speaker 7: In the Senate, I mean.
Speaker 1: There were protests across the country massive about the issue
Speaker 1: of Gaza and Israel. Democrats are going to be very
Speaker 1: concerned if this thing, the one package on Israel, passes
Speaker 1: without conditions. Then you add to that any poison pills
Speaker 1: that Republicans put into this package or Johnson does to
Speaker 1: get it over the hurdle, that's going to be a
Speaker 1: no go for the Senate. So you know, if it
Speaker 1: passes the House, I'm not convinced it passes the Senate,
Speaker 1: but again, it all depends on what it looks like
Speaker 1: and you know, getting if you go on suspension. I
Speaker 1: don't know that he has two thirds to get this passed.
Speaker 1: But any idea that the Democrats can save Mike Johnson's
Speaker 1: Mike Johnson's job is just ridiculous because even if they
Speaker 1: say that he is essentially a dead man walking. I mean,
Speaker 1: you know, you cannot be the speaker of the repub
Speaker 1: of the House where Republicans control by way of Democrats,
Speaker 1: So it is a fool's errand to think that he
Speaker 1: would look to Democrats, and if he did, he'd be
Speaker 1: again dead. So you know, this is a very, very
Speaker 1: tough situation for Mike Johnson.
Speaker 3: God knows it. Rick, I'd like to hear from you
Speaker 3: on this today, because Marjorie Taylor Green did speak earlier,
Speaker 3: and as we've told our listeners and viewers. Tom Massey,
Speaker 3: Republican from Kentucky, says he's with Marjorie Taylor Green on
Speaker 3: the motion of Vaca. So she found another she said, quote,
Speaker 3: this is really interesting. We want to read between the
Speaker 3: lines here. I support the majority, and I want it
Speaker 3: next time the majority. She wants to keep the House,
Speaker 3: she's saying, So I'm being careful. He's definitely not going
Speaker 3: to be speaker next Congress if we're lucky enough to
Speaker 3: have the majority. Doesn't that sound like this whole thing
Speaker 3: just ended. She's talking about Mike Johnson being careful and
Speaker 3: Mike Johnson not being speaker next Congress. Rick, We shouldn't
Speaker 3: be taking this seriously, should we?
Speaker 6: Yeah? Look, I'm not. I take very little of what
Speaker 6: Marjorie Taylor Green says seriously. It's all performance act. I
Speaker 6: think you know, she probably sitting on a memo for
Speaker 6: mar a Lago that says, stand down, we don't need
Speaker 6: this chaos. Yeah, I think that would be the one
Speaker 6: thing that Speaker Johnson got done when he went down
Speaker 6: there to have his press conference with Trump. So at
Speaker 6: the end of the day, it's more important for Marjorie
Speaker 6: Taylor Green to get invited to the Christmas party at
Speaker 6: mar Lago this year than it's going to be to
Speaker 6: decide who's going to be Speaker of the House of Representatives.
Speaker 6: So my guess is she's going to follow the pattern.
Speaker 6: And I would say that I think there is a
Speaker 6: path for Johnson if he had any courage, and that
Speaker 6: is to get one hundred and fifty problem solvers in
Speaker 6: the Republican side and the same number in Democrats and
Speaker 6: say I'm gonna I'm going to create a coalition government.
Speaker 6: I'm going to you know, govern from the center. I'm
Speaker 6: going to get a lot of things done in an
Speaker 6: election year that hardly ever get done, and maybe even
Speaker 6: make a commitment to pass a budget by September of
Speaker 6: this year. And he would go down in history as
Speaker 6: one of the most successful and impressive leaders of our time.
Speaker 6: There's zero chances that's going to happen, but that's always
Speaker 6: an option.
Speaker 3: Just imagine waking up and reading a story like that, Genie.
Speaker 3: Did Donald Trump tell Marjorie Taylor Green to stand back
Speaker 3: and stand by?
Speaker 1: It sounds like he did, although you know, Donald Trump
Speaker 1: can be with you one moment and against you the next.
Speaker 1: So I think if I was Mike Johnson, I'd be
Speaker 1: very concerned that his opinion remain what it was on Friday,
Speaker 1: you know, supportive the way it was publicly, because he
Speaker 1: can shift on a dime. Donald Trump doesn't like people
Speaker 1: who lose. If Mike Johnson loses this vote, who knows
Speaker 1: if Donald Trump will stand with him. But we do
Speaker 1: know that beyond Donald Trump, the campaign of Donald Trump
Speaker 1: is very concerned about all this chaos in the house,
Speaker 1: so they have been pushing it and that's why he
Speaker 1: went out on Friday for Marjorie Taylor Green to stand down.
Speaker 1: So she may well do that. But again, you know,
Speaker 1: nothing is certain when it comes to Donald Trump's support,
Speaker 1: and so Mike Johnson's got to be very careful about that.
Speaker 1: And you know, I agree with Rick. Wouldn't it be
Speaker 1: remarkable and wouldn't it make sense for Johnson who isn't
Speaker 1: going to be re elected speaker. If he stopped worrying
Speaker 1: about his job and just is holding onto his job
Speaker 1: and just did his job, that would be remarkable. And
Speaker 1: yet we've seen no signs that he's going to do that,
Speaker 1: because he's not going to be Speaker again, so he
Speaker 1: doesn't have to worry about keeping it. He's just got
Speaker 1: to do what's in front.
Speaker 3: Of him shit, profile and courage, and it does not
Speaker 3: sound like he's going to be speaker again when you
Speaker 3: listen to so many in his own conference here. What
Speaker 3: is going to happen today, by the way, is that
Speaker 3: may Orcus impeachment articles are going to be sent next door.
Speaker 3: They're going to walk these over, send them to the Senate,
Speaker 3: where it's apparently they're going to go to live a
Speaker 3: very short life. It's just a question of how exactly
Speaker 3: Democrats are going to handle this and whether they'll be
Speaker 3: dismissed on site. That's coming up just about an hour
Speaker 3: and change from now, we'll actually see that process of
Speaker 3: the articles walked across the rotunda to the Senate.
Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch
Speaker 2: us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apocarplay and then
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Speaker 8: Joe, it's just a few blocks north of Wall Street
Speaker 8: where the proceedings are underway at the Supreme Court here
Speaker 8: in New York, New York Criminal Court, fifteenth floor, and
Speaker 8: that is where Donald Trump is sitting as we speak,
Speaker 8: as they are still doing the very difficult work of
Speaker 8: trying to seat a twelve person jury with six alternates
Speaker 8: in his hush money case.
Speaker 3: Can't imagine is making eye contact, Kaylee as we keep
Speaker 3: hearing with these potential jurism what it must be like
Speaker 3: for them. Of course, more than half we're dismissed yesterday,
Speaker 3: and you must be upset to not be standing outside
Speaker 3: in front of that courthouse all day today. Donald Trump,
Speaker 3: of course is back, and we did hear from him earlier.
Speaker 3: Here's the former president.
Speaker 2: I should be.
Speaker 9: Right now in Pennsylvania and far in many other states
Speaker 9: North Camp.
Speaker 3: Laddin Jojia campaign.
Speaker 9: This is all coming from the White House because the
Speaker 9: guy can't put two sentences together. He can't campaign the
Speaker 9: using mission in order to try and win an election,
Speaker 9: and it's not.
Speaker 2: Working that way.
Speaker 8: Donald Trump in the courthouse hallway earlier today. So we
Speaker 8: want to get more on what exactly is happening in
Speaker 8: that room and what is likely to happen as this
Speaker 8: process plays out in the weeks moving forward. Joining us
Speaker 8: now right. He's a constitutional law expert in a practicing
Speaker 8: criminal defense and civil rights lawyer in Maricope, Americope County, Arizona.
Speaker 8: So Robert is great to have you here on Balance
Speaker 8: of Power on TV and radio as we think about
Speaker 8: the way this process is unfolding. Understanding that the defense
Speaker 8: attorneys are asking these potential jurors basically questions around their
Speaker 8: impressions of Donald Trump. This is a former president. We're
Speaker 8: talking about, how hard is it going to be not
Speaker 8: just for them to get truthful answers to these questions,
Speaker 8: but ultimately decide who is going to be unbiased in
Speaker 8: this case. How long do you anticipate this process could
Speaker 8: take in its entirety.
Speaker 10: Well, look, it definitely is challenging, and this is a
Speaker 10: challenging case and challenging jury's selection, but it's not impossible.
Speaker 10: People are asked all the time in high profile cases,
Speaker 10: have you ever heard of such and such? And they answered,
Speaker 10: and the real question is can they still be fair
Speaker 10: and impartial? And so the next subsequent round of questions
Speaker 10: are to do that. Now the judge is already off
Speaker 10: a number of people from the jury veneer the jury pool,
Speaker 10: and that's because they had too many strong biases, either
Speaker 10: for mister Trump or against mister Trump. It was a
Speaker 10: process that benefited him just as much as it benefited
Speaker 10: the prosecution. How long this will take, that is an
Speaker 10: open question. I would certainly think it'll take the rest
Speaker 10: of this week and perhaps next week. I do not
Speaker 10: anticipate jury selection will go beyond that.
Speaker 3: Robert, it's worth a dramatic reading some of the stuff,
Speaker 3: the stories that we're hearing from inside the courtroom. We
Speaker 3: have a team inside the courtroom transmitting that to us.
Speaker 3: God knows, we wish there were cameras there, but it
Speaker 3: doesn't work that way. As I look through some of these,
Speaker 3: a woman being interviewed just said I think no one
Speaker 3: is above the law, and then answered the next question
Speaker 3: saying I think he's being traded fairly, which prompted Donald
Speaker 3: Trump to scowl and shoot the woman a look. She
Speaker 3: has just been excused. Another a man who still has
Speaker 3: a chance to be on the panel, despite the fact
Speaker 3: that he followed the president on Twitter. Says no one
Speaker 3: is above the law, but he drew smiles in a
Speaker 3: nod from Donald Trump when he said that he read
Speaker 3: three of the former president's books. He named them Part
Speaker 3: of the Deal, How to Get Rich and Think like
Speaker 3: a Champion. He also said he'd been robbed at knife
Speaker 3: point and that his wife had been mugged. These people
Speaker 3: are making direct eye contact with the former president while
Speaker 3: they're being interviewed. Do you actually believe that there will
Speaker 3: be a fair jury when this is done?
Speaker 10: You know, the answer to that question is yes, as
Speaker 10: fair as juries are. The jury system is not a
Speaker 10: perfect system. It's just better than any other system you
Speaker 10: can think of. Yeah, there's going to be problems here.
Speaker 10: If I was the prosecutor on that last year that
Speaker 10: you mentioned, if the judge did not strike that juror
Speaker 10: for cause, I would peremptively strike that juror because he's
Speaker 10: just too much identifying with the defendant, as you would
Speaker 10: any other criminal case where a juror is expressing too
Speaker 10: much affinity for the defendant. If you have a trial
Speaker 10: of a drug dealer, you don't generally want drug dealers
Speaker 10: to be on the jury, and so that's kind of
Speaker 10: a broad parameter. It's challenging. High profile cases are challenging.
Speaker 10: Any high profile case of challenging because unlike most criminal cases,
Speaker 10: there's obviously pretrop publicity here, and you have people with
Speaker 10: pre conceived notions and opinions about the defendant, either for
Speaker 10: or against him, and you've got to filter through that.
Speaker 10: That's what jury selection process has done. But he will
Speaker 10: get the jury that he deserves under the Constitution. And
Speaker 10: I do not hold with this argument that, oh, he
Speaker 10: can't get a fair jury in New York. Well, you know,
Speaker 10: if this jury quits him, he's going to say it's
Speaker 10: a fair jury. So he's getting the jury that he
Speaker 10: deserves under the Constitution, and people struggle with goodwill to
Speaker 10: select a good balanced jury, and hopefully the jurors, so
Speaker 10: the potential jurors are being honest with their responses and
Speaker 10: they will judge his case fairly.
Speaker 8: Well, Robert As you raise one of the arguments that
Speaker 8: Donald Trump is making that we've heard him say repeatedly
Speaker 8: in and out of the courthouse and in other instances
Speaker 8: as well, this idea that he won't get a fair
Speaker 8: jury in Manhattan. Again, that it's political persecution, as we
Speaker 8: have heard him say many times. We also did hear
Speaker 8: from him going into court today about kind of the
Speaker 8: substance of this case, reminding all of our listeners and viewers.
Speaker 8: He charged with thirty four felon accounts of falsifying business records. Essentially,
Speaker 8: the allegation that Alvin Bragg has made as a prosecutor
Speaker 8: is that it wasn't so much that the hush money
Speaker 8: payments were made, but when he reimbursed Michael Cohen for him,
Speaker 8: he didn't classify them properly. He wrote them off as
Speaker 8: legal bills rather than something that should have been associated
Speaker 8: with his campaign. On the way into the courthouse today,
Speaker 8: he said, a legal expense is a legal expense. It
Speaker 8: kind of giving us a preview, perhaps of what his
Speaker 8: defense is going to be in that case. You were
Speaker 8: a defense attorney, you think that works.
Speaker 10: I think I can see why that is going to
Speaker 10: be as defense. His defense is going to be a
Speaker 10: version of, Hey, I didn't do this to help my campaign.
Speaker 10: I did it so that Millennia wouldn't find out. Oh
Speaker 10: and by the way, I never slept with Stormy Daniels anyway,
Speaker 10: So kind of do double defense with that one. But look,
Speaker 10: I think what gets lost and other news agencies are
Speaker 10: dishing out some of this stuff. There are victims here.
Speaker 10: The victims are the voters and the people of New
Speaker 10: York and the United States. Sometimes, you know, the very
Speaker 10: same people are saying, oh, Donald Trump's being treated unfairly.
Speaker 10: Included Donald Trump would be totally shocked if let's say,
Speaker 10: for instance, somebody paid one hundred and thirty thousand dollars
Speaker 10: to suppress a story about Hunter Biden when his father
Speaker 10: was running for president, and then they had evidence that
Speaker 10: his father was the one who did that, they would
Speaker 10: be all over that and say this should be prosecuted. Well,
Speaker 10: this is no different here. This and from what we've
Speaker 10: seen reported the prosecutor as evidence that Donald Trump approved
Speaker 10: this specifically to prevent Stormy Daniels's story from getting out
Speaker 10: at a time when he was running for president. Now
Speaker 10: he's already gotten some favorable rulings from the judge in
Speaker 10: this case. He's getting a fair trial. The judge, for instance,
Speaker 10: suppressed so far evidence of the access Hollywood tape coming in,
Speaker 10: which kind of shows Donald Trump's motivation. So Donald Trump
Speaker 10: is getting a fair trial. And I will say something
Speaker 10: else too. This argument about somehow this is engineered by
Speaker 10: the Biden administration is absurd. There's no evidence of that.
Speaker 10: And his argument that I could be someplace else campaigning,
Speaker 10: you know, blah blah blah. Well, don't forget that this
Speaker 10: trial could have happened a year and a half ago.
Speaker 10: It is Donald Trump and his lawyers seeking to delay, delay, delay,
Speaker 10: delay that's gotten the trial happening right now rather than
Speaker 10: months and months and months ago. So Donald's a really
Speaker 10: shit point complained about that. He's the one who created
Speaker 10: this trial date.
Speaker 3: We're spending time with constitutional law expert and attorney Robert
Speaker 3: mcwherterer on this second day of Donald Trump's criminal trial, Robert,
Speaker 3: while you're with us here in our remaining moments. A
Speaker 3: lot of folks have questioned the veracity of this trial,
Speaker 3: suggesting that it's the weakest of the four that Donald
Speaker 3: Trump could have faced or may still face before the
Speaker 3: election in November. But what's it going to be like
Speaker 3: when testimony begins? What is it going to be like
Speaker 3: when Stormy Daniels is telling her story and that'll be
Speaker 3: the front page news or Michael Cohen? Is this going
Speaker 3: to feel different? Well?
Speaker 10: I do agree. By the way, this is the weakest
Speaker 10: of the four cases. That does not mean that it's
Speaker 10: not a case that the prosecutor can win. This case
Speaker 10: will come down to the testimony of two people, Stephanie Clifford,
Speaker 10: Stormy Daniels and Michael Cohen. The defense strategy here is
Speaker 10: to try to attack both of them, especially Michael Cohen.
Speaker 10: I don't think in my experience, and I've had many
Speaker 10: many trials where somebody is a snitch and they testify,
Speaker 10: and then you attack them for their interest in testifying
Speaker 10: against somebody, the juries are very good at saying, yeah,
Speaker 10: he's doing that and he's self interested, but doesn't mean
Speaker 10: what he's saying is not true. Just because Michael Cohen
Speaker 10: is saying stuff about his former boss and he's getting
Speaker 10: a deal for it or has gotten benefit from it,
Speaker 10: doesn't mean that what he says is not true. I mean,
Speaker 10: you can be kind of self interested and still honest.
Speaker 10: And I also think that in this case, having just
Speaker 10: seen her, I think Stormy Daniels is going to be
Speaker 10: a very strong witness against mister Trump. And I must say,
Speaker 10: in this whole sort of affair, at least from what
Speaker 10: I see publicly, the person that's shown the most integrity
Speaker 10: and honesty so far has been the sex worker. I mean,
Speaker 10: she seems to just have a straightforward reason. She says
Speaker 10: she slept with Donald Trump because she's a sex worker
Speaker 10: and the check cleared. Well, that's pretty honest. The jury
Speaker 10: cares about honesty. Other things are not quite as important to.
Speaker 8: Them, and Robert in our final minute here with you,
Speaker 8: it's worth noting that, of course, this trial will be
Speaker 8: taking place every weekday except Wednesdays. There were a few
Speaker 8: things that Trump wanted to be excused for. One of
Speaker 8: them is happening next week at the Supreme Court on
Speaker 8: April twenty fifth, when it's arguments in his immunity from
Speaker 8: prosecution question related to the twenty twenty election case brought
Speaker 8: by Jack Smith. But the High Court is also hearing
Speaker 8: something else today, specifically related to riot urges around January sixth,
Speaker 8: essentially a question as to whether an obstruction of proceeding
Speaker 8: an official proceeding should be applied to the extent that
Speaker 8: it is in the cases of those who were present
Speaker 8: on January sixth. It does seem like some of the
Speaker 8: justices are quite skeptical of this. What is your read
Speaker 8: on that case? In particular.
Speaker 10: Well, that case in particular is the Fisher case, Fisher
Speaker 10: versus the United States, and it had to do with
Speaker 10: the Sabrans, the Financial Fraud Act that was passed after
Speaker 10: the Enron standard, right, And what happened is in the
Speaker 10: Enron situation, a bunch of accountants for Enron just has
Speaker 10: started to start shredding all kinds of evidence, and there
Speaker 10: was no statute against it. So they created this statute. Now,
Speaker 10: the statute, although it was written for that circumstance, has
Speaker 10: very broad language, and the prosecutors apply that language to
Speaker 10: the situation of January sixth and these defendants. And so
Speaker 10: that is pretty common in law. You have a statute
Speaker 10: written for one thing, but the language is written broadly
Speaker 10: enough to cover another. It is an argument he could
Speaker 10: have some success in the court on that argument, although
Speaker 10: at the end I don't think so. And of course
Speaker 10: mister Fisher is bringing that. But the real person who's interested,
Speaker 10: of course, is Donald Trump, because he's facing potentially the
Speaker 10: same criminal charges as mister Fisher is. I will also
Speaker 10: note that mister Fisher has several other charges, as do
Speaker 10: these January sixth defendants, that would actually they can be
Speaker 10: found guilty on beyond just what that is, so you know,
Speaker 10: so we'll see how that kind of works out. I
Speaker 10: don't know if you want to have time to go
Speaker 10: into the presidential immunity argument, but but I could comment
Speaker 10: on that too, but I know we're press for time.
Speaker 3: Oh, we'd love to have you back. We want to
Speaker 3: stay close to you. Robert, appreciate your analysis. As always,
Speaker 3: today Robert mcwerder with us. Thanks for listening to the
Speaker 3: Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you
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Speaker 3: and you can find us live every weekday from Washington,
Speaker 3: DC at noontime Eastern at Bloomberg dot com