1 00:00:00,600 --> 00:00:07,280 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:09,760 --> 00:00:13,240 Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 3 00:00:13,360 --> 00:00:16,400 Speaker 2: us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Appocarplay and then 4 00:00:16,520 --> 00:00:19,920 Speaker 2: Roudoto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever 5 00:00:20,000 --> 00:00:23,600 Speaker 2: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:25,680 --> 00:00:28,120 Speaker 3: Welcome to the Tuesday edition of Balance of Power. It's 7 00:00:28,160 --> 00:00:31,360 Speaker 3: only Tuesday here on Bloomberg Radio, on the satellite and 8 00:00:31,400 --> 00:00:33,960 Speaker 3: on YouTube where you can find us. Now is perfect 9 00:00:34,000 --> 00:00:37,000 Speaker 3: time to go to YouTube search Bloomberg Global News. You'll 10 00:00:37,000 --> 00:00:39,440 Speaker 3: find our live stream and we always save a seat 11 00:00:39,440 --> 00:00:42,800 Speaker 3: for you here in the studio in Washington. So this 12 00:00:42,880 --> 00:00:45,279 Speaker 3: is it. We finally have a sense of what's going 13 00:00:45,360 --> 00:00:48,640 Speaker 3: to happen this week when it comes to Ukraine, Israel, 14 00:00:48,720 --> 00:00:52,080 Speaker 3: and yes, Taiwan, just don't ask me about the border. 15 00:00:52,880 --> 00:00:57,200 Speaker 3: Remembering this whole situation involving speaker Mike Johnson with a 16 00:00:57,240 --> 00:00:59,959 Speaker 3: motion to vacate hanging over his head Marjorie Taylor Green 17 00:01:00,200 --> 00:01:04,240 Speaker 3: threatening to fire him if he brings a Ukraine funding 18 00:01:04,280 --> 00:01:07,559 Speaker 3: bill to the floor, and it's going to happen. There's 19 00:01:07,560 --> 00:01:09,839 Speaker 3: been a lot of questions about in what form and when, 20 00:01:09,880 --> 00:01:12,480 Speaker 3: and we did hear from the Speaker. He came to 21 00:01:12,680 --> 00:01:16,280 Speaker 3: terms with his conference and his fellow leaders last night, 22 00:01:16,760 --> 00:01:18,800 Speaker 3: and as we learned this morning, he's going to take 23 00:01:18,840 --> 00:01:24,600 Speaker 3: the Frankenstein approach, put this together limb by limb, and 24 00:01:24,640 --> 00:01:28,040 Speaker 3: then assemble the body later. Here's the Speaker of the House. 25 00:01:29,200 --> 00:01:33,560 Speaker 4: I put out a preliminary plan, as you all know, 26 00:01:33,840 --> 00:01:38,360 Speaker 4: on these measures to handle these matters from Israel to 27 00:01:38,720 --> 00:01:42,720 Speaker 4: Ukraine to the Indo Pacific region. And the fourth bill 28 00:01:42,720 --> 00:01:45,240 Speaker 4: in this package would be our priorities, which is the 29 00:01:45,280 --> 00:01:48,360 Speaker 4: REPO Act, and we implement the loan concept and all 30 00:01:48,360 --> 00:01:52,280 Speaker 4: of this in the supplemental discussion. But the will of 31 00:01:52,320 --> 00:01:55,520 Speaker 4: this of our body is to find every possible way, 32 00:01:55,720 --> 00:01:59,720 Speaker 4: using this legislation and every legislation that we pass, to 33 00:01:59,760 --> 00:02:03,160 Speaker 4: try to use as leverage to get the administration to 34 00:02:03,320 --> 00:02:04,559 Speaker 4: get control of that border. 35 00:02:06,920 --> 00:02:08,640 Speaker 3: I'm still not sure how we get around on the 36 00:02:08,639 --> 00:02:11,000 Speaker 3: border here, because there was a border provision, as we 37 00:02:11,080 --> 00:02:13,120 Speaker 3: all know, in the Senate bill that had all of 38 00:02:13,160 --> 00:02:17,120 Speaker 3: these same components, and that was declared DOA in the 39 00:02:17,160 --> 00:02:20,120 Speaker 3: House as soon as it passed the Senate following months 40 00:02:20,440 --> 00:02:25,800 Speaker 3: of negotiations between Republicans and Democrats. Problem here is, we 41 00:02:25,840 --> 00:02:28,440 Speaker 3: don't know if all these can pass, and we don't 42 00:02:28,480 --> 00:02:31,200 Speaker 3: know if the speaker can survive them. Marjorie Taylor Green, 43 00:02:31,520 --> 00:02:33,960 Speaker 3: who again you know, has the motion to vacate here 44 00:02:34,560 --> 00:02:37,040 Speaker 3: and by the way, has another lawmaker on her side today, 45 00:02:37,120 --> 00:02:40,880 Speaker 3: labeled Johnson's plan a scam and says she is firmly 46 00:02:40,919 --> 00:02:45,560 Speaker 3: against it. I support the majority, she writes, and I 47 00:02:45,680 --> 00:02:49,040 Speaker 3: want it next time, so I'm being careful. Maybe that 48 00:02:49,120 --> 00:02:52,360 Speaker 3: means he's safe after his trip to Moro a Lago 49 00:02:52,440 --> 00:02:55,000 Speaker 3: last weekend. Let's get into this with Megan Scully, who 50 00:02:55,120 --> 00:02:59,280 Speaker 3: leads our congressional coverage here in Washington, and my goodness, 51 00:02:59,360 --> 00:03:01,519 Speaker 3: just another two day for you, I guess, Megan, great 52 00:03:01,560 --> 00:03:04,760 Speaker 3: to see you. But we now know at least the 53 00:03:04,919 --> 00:03:11,320 Speaker 3: form this might take. I mentioned the Frankenstein approach. Is 54 00:03:11,320 --> 00:03:14,760 Speaker 3: it the Humpty dumpty approach? Maybe, as we have to 55 00:03:14,800 --> 00:03:16,360 Speaker 3: put him all back together again. 56 00:03:16,800 --> 00:03:18,799 Speaker 5: I think eventually they will need to put it all 57 00:03:18,840 --> 00:03:20,160 Speaker 5: back together again to get it. 58 00:03:20,120 --> 00:03:21,080 Speaker 3: Through the Senate. 59 00:03:22,360 --> 00:03:25,240 Speaker 5: Right now, they're taking it apart, piece by piece, like 60 00:03:25,280 --> 00:03:28,480 Speaker 5: you said, essentially to try to get it through the House. 61 00:03:28,520 --> 00:03:31,000 Speaker 5: You know, Ukraine will pass the House on the backs 62 00:03:31,040 --> 00:03:34,920 Speaker 5: of democratic support. Israel will pass the House on the 63 00:03:34,960 --> 00:03:39,880 Speaker 5: backs of Republican and majority Democrats support, with progressives likely 64 00:03:39,960 --> 00:03:42,840 Speaker 5: voting against it. So you have this kind of fragile 65 00:03:42,840 --> 00:03:46,480 Speaker 5: coalition that he's trying to weave together on each of 66 00:03:46,560 --> 00:03:49,600 Speaker 5: these bills. So then it's a matter of do you 67 00:03:49,760 --> 00:03:52,000 Speaker 5: package them all together to try to get them through 68 00:03:52,000 --> 00:03:55,320 Speaker 5: the Senate, which has its own hurdles. It's going to 69 00:03:55,360 --> 00:03:58,120 Speaker 5: be incredibly messy, and we don't even have all the 70 00:03:58,160 --> 00:03:58,880 Speaker 5: details yet. 71 00:03:58,920 --> 00:04:02,320 Speaker 3: So is this small Do we believe that the combined 72 00:04:02,360 --> 00:04:05,200 Speaker 3: bill in fact would fail or was that just a 73 00:04:05,240 --> 00:04:08,480 Speaker 3: maneuver by Mike Johnson to keep his job. A lot 74 00:04:08,480 --> 00:04:12,640 Speaker 3: of Freedom Caucus other conservative Republicans said we'll never vote 75 00:04:12,640 --> 00:04:12,840 Speaker 3: for that. 76 00:04:13,360 --> 00:04:15,800 Speaker 5: So the issue in the House is this procedural hurdle 77 00:04:15,840 --> 00:04:18,920 Speaker 5: that Mike Johnson keeps losing getting things out of the 78 00:04:19,040 --> 00:04:23,039 Speaker 5: Rules Committee, which controls floor debate, and then the rule 79 00:04:23,200 --> 00:04:26,920 Speaker 5: which required which Democrats traditionally vote against because they don't 80 00:04:27,000 --> 00:04:30,720 Speaker 5: like amendments that were not offered or that were offered, 81 00:04:31,400 --> 00:04:34,400 Speaker 5: and then that usually fails along party line. So clearing 82 00:04:34,440 --> 00:04:37,560 Speaker 5: that hurdle with Republican support on a big piece of 83 00:04:37,680 --> 00:04:41,600 Speaker 5: legislation is incredibly difficult. So that's why we keep seeing 84 00:04:41,680 --> 00:04:46,880 Speaker 5: these defeats on the floor. There's talk of Democrats actually 85 00:04:46,920 --> 00:04:49,159 Speaker 5: supporting a rule which you know, to you and I 86 00:04:49,240 --> 00:04:51,920 Speaker 5: doesn't seem like a big deal but actually is pretty 87 00:04:51,920 --> 00:04:55,320 Speaker 5: different than this the norm. Yeah, any kind of bipartisanship 88 00:04:56,800 --> 00:05:01,200 Speaker 5: advances it. So it's incredibly complicate trying to get this through. 89 00:05:01,279 --> 00:05:04,760 Speaker 5: This is probably his best chance of getting through Ukraine. 90 00:05:06,000 --> 00:05:08,480 Speaker 5: And so that's the way that it's going. It's going 91 00:05:08,520 --> 00:05:11,000 Speaker 5: to be a long and ugly week. These votes are 92 00:05:11,000 --> 00:05:13,320 Speaker 5: probably going to be late on Friday, and then they 93 00:05:13,400 --> 00:05:13,960 Speaker 5: still need to. 94 00:05:13,960 --> 00:05:14,320 Speaker 6: Go through this. 95 00:05:14,440 --> 00:05:16,920 Speaker 3: They're supposedly going on recess at the end of this week, right, 96 00:05:16,920 --> 00:05:18,880 Speaker 3: so we've got a working weekend. Maybe it's feeling like 97 00:05:19,279 --> 00:05:22,520 Speaker 3: what about the motion of VAK. Tom Massey has apparently 98 00:05:22,600 --> 00:05:25,800 Speaker 3: signed on or is willing to co sponsor this with 99 00:05:25,880 --> 00:05:28,800 Speaker 3: Marjorie Taylor Green. This speaker is going to have a 100 00:05:28,839 --> 00:05:33,920 Speaker 3: majority of one come Friday, Is it real or does 101 00:05:33,960 --> 00:05:36,599 Speaker 3: he know Democrats will probably be there to save him, 102 00:05:36,760 --> 00:05:39,279 Speaker 3: either by staying home and changing the math or voting 103 00:05:39,320 --> 00:05:40,000 Speaker 3: to support him. 104 00:05:40,200 --> 00:05:43,640 Speaker 5: So it's there's at least one Democrat who has said 105 00:05:43,680 --> 00:05:47,480 Speaker 5: that he will vote to save Mike Johnson, and that's 106 00:05:47,520 --> 00:05:49,960 Speaker 5: shared Moskowitz, and there are some others that we expect 107 00:05:50,080 --> 00:05:54,680 Speaker 5: might if Johnson does survive this Ouster threat on the 108 00:05:54,720 --> 00:05:58,320 Speaker 5: backs of Democratic support. He's still the speaker, but he's 109 00:05:58,440 --> 00:06:00,359 Speaker 5: essentially the speaker in name only. 110 00:06:00,440 --> 00:06:04,480 Speaker 3: Well, so he does himself in if it takes Democrats 111 00:06:04,600 --> 00:06:05,280 Speaker 3: to protect him. 112 00:06:05,440 --> 00:06:08,120 Speaker 5: Yes, I think he's probably vacating that office at the 113 00:06:08,200 --> 00:06:08,479 Speaker 5: end of this. 114 00:06:08,720 --> 00:06:11,520 Speaker 3: Can we believe then that Donald Trump will protect him? 115 00:06:11,520 --> 00:06:14,320 Speaker 3: Did he make a deal with Trump last weekend at 116 00:06:14,320 --> 00:06:16,920 Speaker 3: mar A Lago to keep Marjorie Taylor Green off his back? 117 00:06:17,160 --> 00:06:17,280 Speaker 4: So? 118 00:06:17,360 --> 00:06:21,040 Speaker 5: Trump certainly did Johnson a favor at mar Alago and 119 00:06:21,320 --> 00:06:24,880 Speaker 5: went as far as anyone expected him to, probably further 120 00:06:24,960 --> 00:06:27,240 Speaker 5: than many of us did expect him to, you know, 121 00:06:27,480 --> 00:06:32,320 Speaker 5: in terms of embracing Johnson. But that doesn't mean that 122 00:06:32,320 --> 00:06:35,320 Speaker 5: that still holds true today. We know that Trump's opinions 123 00:06:35,360 --> 00:06:40,000 Speaker 5: about people can change pretty wildly, so it will be 124 00:06:40,080 --> 00:06:42,400 Speaker 5: interesting to see how this all plays out. 125 00:06:42,480 --> 00:06:44,920 Speaker 3: God knows, And you've got a week ahead, Megan. Great 126 00:06:44,920 --> 00:06:46,560 Speaker 3: to see you and thank you for the insights. Megan 127 00:06:46,600 --> 00:06:50,640 Speaker 3: Scully leading our coverage here on the Terminal and online, 128 00:06:50,920 --> 00:06:55,200 Speaker 3: as we now have a sense of the what and when, 129 00:06:55,760 --> 00:06:58,120 Speaker 3: just a question of whether this is actually going to work. 130 00:06:58,160 --> 00:07:00,760 Speaker 3: But it looks like at least for spending bills. And 131 00:07:00,800 --> 00:07:03,479 Speaker 3: as we just heard from Megan, will be voting likely 132 00:07:03,560 --> 00:07:05,760 Speaker 3: by the end of the week, so don't pack your 133 00:07:05,760 --> 00:07:10,280 Speaker 3: bags for recess yet. And as Donald Trump looms over 134 00:07:10,520 --> 00:07:15,840 Speaker 3: the House agenda, a pretty incredible day yesterday, even though 135 00:07:15,840 --> 00:07:18,600 Speaker 3: we're all used to seeing him in court becoming the 136 00:07:18,600 --> 00:07:21,840 Speaker 3: first former American president, as you keep hearing to go 137 00:07:21,880 --> 00:07:24,640 Speaker 3: on criminal trial, it's just different when it happens. And 138 00:07:24,680 --> 00:07:27,320 Speaker 3: looking at those images of him scowling in the courtroom 139 00:07:27,920 --> 00:07:31,480 Speaker 3: make you wonder if he continues to raise money on this, 140 00:07:31,600 --> 00:07:35,679 Speaker 3: whether there is actually a backlash here for the broader 141 00:07:35,720 --> 00:07:39,240 Speaker 3: public as this now becomes a general election battle where 142 00:07:39,280 --> 00:07:43,240 Speaker 3: one is attempting to gain votes. Brings us to the 143 00:07:43,320 --> 00:07:46,840 Speaker 3: latest Siena poll. Important we mentioned it yesterday. We have 144 00:07:46,880 --> 00:07:50,080 Speaker 3: an opportunity to take the deep dive now with Don Levy. 145 00:07:50,120 --> 00:07:52,640 Speaker 3: It's always great to have him with us, director of 146 00:07:52,640 --> 00:07:56,080 Speaker 3: the Siena College Research Institute. As we read in their 147 00:07:56,080 --> 00:08:00,480 Speaker 3: partner New York Times publication here, the President's pot already 148 00:08:00,480 --> 00:08:03,200 Speaker 3: ticking up slightly. This is looking kind of like a tie. 149 00:08:03,360 --> 00:08:06,200 Speaker 3: Mister Biden, mister Trump virtually tied with Trump at forty 150 00:08:06,240 --> 00:08:10,880 Speaker 3: six percent to forty five percent, an improvement for Biden 151 00:08:11,000 --> 00:08:14,880 Speaker 3: from late February when it was forty eight to forty three. 152 00:08:15,080 --> 00:08:17,120 Speaker 3: There's a lot more under the hood, though, and that's 153 00:08:17,160 --> 00:08:19,560 Speaker 3: why it's great to have you with us. Don Good 154 00:08:19,600 --> 00:08:22,480 Speaker 3: to see you. Welcome back to Bloomberg. Let's just start 155 00:08:22,480 --> 00:08:25,360 Speaker 3: with the headline. Is this the post State of the 156 00:08:25,440 --> 00:08:27,120 Speaker 3: Union bump everybody was looking for? 157 00:08:28,920 --> 00:08:32,080 Speaker 7: It appears to be. Certainly. We see Biden picking up 158 00:08:32,440 --> 00:08:36,120 Speaker 7: with a couple of key constituencies, doing better with women, 159 00:08:36,440 --> 00:08:39,040 Speaker 7: doing better with the black voters, and doing better with 160 00:08:39,120 --> 00:08:44,400 Speaker 7: Latino voters. So a four point closing from five, which 161 00:08:44,440 --> 00:08:48,240 Speaker 7: sounded like a big lead down to one, which I 162 00:08:48,280 --> 00:08:51,440 Speaker 7: think you're absolutely right, is a tie. So at this 163 00:08:51,480 --> 00:08:54,320 Speaker 7: point in time, you know, Biden over the past six 164 00:08:54,360 --> 00:08:58,800 Speaker 7: weeks has picked up some support. Still, you know, both 165 00:08:58,880 --> 00:09:03,520 Speaker 7: candidates have have tremendous hurdles overcome. You Know, one thing 166 00:09:03,559 --> 00:09:06,280 Speaker 7: that stood out in this poll to us was the 167 00:09:06,800 --> 00:09:10,480 Speaker 7: folks who we describe as double haters, those voters who 168 00:09:10,520 --> 00:09:13,120 Speaker 7: say that they don't like either of the two candidates. 169 00:09:13,400 --> 00:09:17,120 Speaker 7: That's a full eighteen percent of Americans right now, and 170 00:09:17,240 --> 00:09:19,920 Speaker 7: right now when you look at that group of people, 171 00:09:20,200 --> 00:09:21,920 Speaker 7: and they're a little bit of everyone, They're not just 172 00:09:22,000 --> 00:09:25,679 Speaker 7: one demographic. But thirty percent of double haters say that 173 00:09:25,720 --> 00:09:28,199 Speaker 7: they would vote for Biden. Twenty one percent of double 174 00:09:28,200 --> 00:09:30,680 Speaker 7: haters say that they would vote for mister Trump. But 175 00:09:30,800 --> 00:09:33,400 Speaker 7: nearly half of double haters say either I don't know, 176 00:09:34,040 --> 00:09:36,200 Speaker 7: or I might vote for a third candidate, or I 177 00:09:36,280 --> 00:09:39,680 Speaker 7: might stay home. And that's where a great deal of 178 00:09:39,679 --> 00:09:42,160 Speaker 7: this battle is going to be. Wigs is amongst that 179 00:09:42,520 --> 00:09:45,080 Speaker 7: group of double haters. 180 00:09:45,120 --> 00:09:48,320 Speaker 3: Boy, and what a feast the double haters are going 181 00:09:48,400 --> 00:09:50,360 Speaker 3: to have. Donald Trump is going to be in court, 182 00:09:51,200 --> 00:09:53,880 Speaker 3: scowling at the camera and talking to reporters in the 183 00:09:53,960 --> 00:09:59,319 Speaker 3: lobby of a courthouse, presumably, and Joe Biden is going 184 00:09:59,320 --> 00:10:03,400 Speaker 3: to be apparently caught in a geopolitical morass with high 185 00:10:03,520 --> 00:10:06,160 Speaker 3: risk in the Middle East, big questions about what's happening 186 00:10:06,200 --> 00:10:10,520 Speaker 3: in Ukraine, questions about inflation here at home done. How 187 00:10:10,520 --> 00:10:12,960 Speaker 3: do you break through with a double hater? If those 188 00:10:13,040 --> 00:10:17,320 Speaker 3: are your choices, it's arguably getting worse for both of them. Well. 189 00:10:17,320 --> 00:10:20,559 Speaker 7: An interesting question that we asked people was whether they 190 00:10:20,600 --> 00:10:24,920 Speaker 7: thought that Trump and or Biden were either a safe 191 00:10:25,120 --> 00:10:28,839 Speaker 7: or a risky choice for America for them, And interestingly, 192 00:10:29,000 --> 00:10:33,400 Speaker 7: amongst the double haters, they think both candidates are risky. 193 00:10:33,640 --> 00:10:37,480 Speaker 7: Trump slightly more risky than Biden, but Biden does not 194 00:10:37,600 --> 00:10:40,640 Speaker 7: win amongst the double haters on being a safer choice. 195 00:10:40,679 --> 00:10:43,640 Speaker 7: And you really lay out this tug of war that 196 00:10:43,679 --> 00:10:47,040 Speaker 7: we're seeing on issues. We saw in this poll that 197 00:10:47,080 --> 00:10:50,400 Speaker 7: when you started bringing up the economy, that Trump beats 198 00:10:50,440 --> 00:10:54,480 Speaker 7: Biden all over on the economy, Americans remember Trump years 199 00:10:54,480 --> 00:10:59,000 Speaker 7: as being better. They think that far and away. Two 200 00:10:59,080 --> 00:11:01,040 Speaker 7: thirds say that they have prove of the job that 201 00:11:01,080 --> 00:11:03,280 Speaker 7: Donald Trump did on the economy when he was president. 202 00:11:03,559 --> 00:11:06,640 Speaker 7: Two thirds say they disapprove of the job that Joe 203 00:11:06,640 --> 00:11:09,720 Speaker 7: Biden is doing on the economy. So when it comes 204 00:11:09,720 --> 00:11:14,440 Speaker 7: to economic issues, that's a tremendous weakness for Biden, tremendous 205 00:11:14,480 --> 00:11:17,160 Speaker 7: strength to Trump. Then you flip it over to the trial, 206 00:11:17,600 --> 00:11:21,160 Speaker 7: and there we continue to see, for the third survey 207 00:11:21,200 --> 00:11:24,080 Speaker 7: in a row that a majority of Americans say that 208 00:11:24,200 --> 00:11:27,760 Speaker 7: they think Donald Trump committed serious federal crimes. And when 209 00:11:27,760 --> 00:11:30,280 Speaker 7: you come to this trial taking place in New York 210 00:11:30,360 --> 00:11:33,560 Speaker 7: right now, a plurality, not quite a majority, but a 211 00:11:33,600 --> 00:11:37,200 Speaker 7: plurality by about ten points feels as though he's guilty, 212 00:11:37,480 --> 00:11:40,160 Speaker 7: and they predict that he may very well be found 213 00:11:40,200 --> 00:11:42,080 Speaker 7: guilty in this trial in New York. 214 00:11:43,840 --> 00:11:49,120 Speaker 3: Remarkable to see this balancing act, or maybe it's compartmentalization. 215 00:11:49,640 --> 00:11:54,160 Speaker 3: Don You mentioned the economy here, and it's amazing what 216 00:11:54,200 --> 00:11:57,160 Speaker 3: people's memories will do. To your point, they associate a 217 00:11:57,200 --> 00:12:00,400 Speaker 3: better economy, a stronger economy with Donald Trump, though by 218 00:12:00,480 --> 00:12:03,640 Speaker 3: some metrics Joe Biden has a stronger economy. It depends 219 00:12:03,679 --> 00:12:06,440 Speaker 3: when you're looking at here. But of course, you know, 220 00:12:06,480 --> 00:12:08,200 Speaker 3: you go back to four years ago if you do 221 00:12:08,280 --> 00:12:10,400 Speaker 3: this whole you know, four year ago thing, and that's 222 00:12:10,440 --> 00:12:12,480 Speaker 3: what people are going to be asking, if God forbid, 223 00:12:12,840 --> 00:12:14,960 Speaker 3: we ever have a real debate. Are you better off 224 00:12:15,000 --> 00:12:17,000 Speaker 3: than you were four years ago? We were in the 225 00:12:17,040 --> 00:12:21,080 Speaker 3: throes of a pandemic. People were not able to live 226 00:12:21,160 --> 00:12:24,560 Speaker 3: their lives the way they are now. We were talking 227 00:12:24,640 --> 00:12:31,640 Speaker 3: about closures, shutdowns, lack of supplies. How does Joe Biden 228 00:12:31,720 --> 00:12:34,800 Speaker 3: remind people of that? And I guess our memories of 229 00:12:34,880 --> 00:12:37,400 Speaker 3: short are short. It's amazing to me that that doesn't 230 00:12:37,440 --> 00:12:39,640 Speaker 3: seem to show up in the polls. You found a 231 00:12:39,679 --> 00:12:43,120 Speaker 3: big increase nine points in registered voters who believe that 232 00:12:43,160 --> 00:12:44,960 Speaker 3: Donald Trump left the country better off. 233 00:12:46,120 --> 00:12:46,320 Speaker 6: Yeah. 234 00:12:46,360 --> 00:12:49,599 Speaker 7: Absolutely. When you say is the country better off or 235 00:12:49,679 --> 00:12:53,200 Speaker 7: did he leave it better off? Or the Trump year 236 00:12:53,280 --> 00:12:57,800 Speaker 7: is mostly good or mostly bad? By nine points, Americans 237 00:12:57,800 --> 00:13:01,000 Speaker 7: say that the Trump years were mostly good rather than bad. 238 00:13:01,280 --> 00:13:04,360 Speaker 7: And you flip that around to right now and a 239 00:13:04,480 --> 00:13:08,360 Speaker 7: negative twenty one points when you're asking Americans do you 240 00:13:08,400 --> 00:13:11,840 Speaker 7: think that the Biden years are good or bad? You know, 241 00:13:11,880 --> 00:13:15,000 Speaker 7: I think that Biden is fighting the curse of the 242 00:13:15,040 --> 00:13:19,200 Speaker 7: grocery store and now the increased prices that every American 243 00:13:19,280 --> 00:13:24,640 Speaker 7: faces on their groceries their other monthly necessities is just 244 00:13:24,720 --> 00:13:28,440 Speaker 7: weighing them down. And they don't believe right now that 245 00:13:28,520 --> 00:13:31,760 Speaker 7: the economy is better and they're overwhelmingly said. We saw 246 00:13:31,760 --> 00:13:35,760 Speaker 7: a six point increase in the percentages of Americans from 247 00:13:35,800 --> 00:13:38,520 Speaker 7: this survey to one just in February who say that 248 00:13:38,600 --> 00:13:41,720 Speaker 7: they think the American economy is no better than only 249 00:13:41,800 --> 00:13:45,840 Speaker 7: fair or poor. It's slipping away even more in the 250 00:13:45,880 --> 00:13:47,040 Speaker 7: eyes of voters. 251 00:13:48,600 --> 00:13:50,720 Speaker 3: We've spent some time in our last minute here don 252 00:13:50,800 --> 00:13:54,360 Speaker 3: talking about the value of national polls. How should we 253 00:13:54,400 --> 00:13:57,680 Speaker 3: interpret these numbers as we work our way through the 254 00:13:57,720 --> 00:13:59,560 Speaker 3: rest of this cycle here Knowing there are a swing 255 00:13:59,600 --> 00:14:03,160 Speaker 3: state we have at Bloomberg. Different snapshots tell you different things. 256 00:14:04,480 --> 00:14:07,280 Speaker 7: Well, certainly the National Post give you a feel of 257 00:14:07,320 --> 00:14:11,320 Speaker 7: how the country is. It contributes towards the national conversation. 258 00:14:11,640 --> 00:14:13,840 Speaker 7: But you're absolutely right, we're going to hone in on 259 00:14:13,920 --> 00:14:17,480 Speaker 7: these battleground states. We'll be pulling those battleground states starting 260 00:14:17,520 --> 00:14:20,320 Speaker 7: in about two weeks from right now. Right now, it 261 00:14:20,360 --> 00:14:24,160 Speaker 7: looks like the battleground is perhaps growing. North Carolina is 262 00:14:24,200 --> 00:14:26,520 Speaker 7: trying to fight its way in to be a battleground state. 263 00:14:26,560 --> 00:14:29,200 Speaker 7: We had six, now we're looking at seven. And we'll 264 00:14:29,240 --> 00:14:31,960 Speaker 7: be talking more in that next ball about the push 265 00:14:31,960 --> 00:14:37,160 Speaker 7: pull not only between the economy and threats to democracy 266 00:14:37,840 --> 00:14:40,640 Speaker 7: the former president on trial, but also the issue of abortion, 267 00:14:40,680 --> 00:14:43,120 Speaker 7: which is going to loom very large in each and 268 00:14:43,200 --> 00:14:45,280 Speaker 7: every one of these battleground states. And it's going to 269 00:14:45,280 --> 00:14:48,720 Speaker 7: add another dimension that these candidates are going to have 270 00:14:48,800 --> 00:14:53,640 Speaker 7: to fight over to convince Americans that they're better on 271 00:14:53,720 --> 00:14:56,880 Speaker 7: the interests of each of these voters in the battleground states. 272 00:14:57,640 --> 00:14:59,960 Speaker 3: Well, maybe bloombergers I have its time with North Carolin 273 00:15:00,000 --> 00:15:02,560 Speaker 3: and Don Levy. It's great to see again from Siana College. 274 00:15:02,560 --> 00:15:05,840 Speaker 3: Great work and great to share your results with our audience. 275 00:15:09,240 --> 00:15:12,560 Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast Ken 276 00:15:12,760 --> 00:15:16,080 Speaker 2: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and enroud 277 00:15:16,120 --> 00:15:18,800 Speaker 2: Oto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen 278 00:15:18,920 --> 00:15:22,040 Speaker 2: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, 279 00:15:22,400 --> 00:15:25,880 Speaker 2: Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 280 00:15:27,280 --> 00:15:30,960 Speaker 3: As we try to imagine if Mike Johnson is capable 281 00:15:32,200 --> 00:15:36,680 Speaker 3: of reverse engineering a foreign aid bill that's already passed 282 00:15:36,680 --> 00:15:46,920 Speaker 3: the Senate, we're going Frankenstein style here, lim By Lim, Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan, 283 00:15:47,920 --> 00:15:52,840 Speaker 3: each with their own constituencies. They presumably pass as separate 284 00:15:52,880 --> 00:15:56,080 Speaker 3: spending bills and then are somehow stitched back together, put 285 00:15:56,080 --> 00:15:59,120 Speaker 3: on the table and brought to life in the United 286 00:15:59,160 --> 00:16:03,440 Speaker 3: States Senate. That's the best case scenario. Mike Johnson's doing 287 00:16:03,480 --> 00:16:06,520 Speaker 3: this now. He actually just outlined this whole plan with 288 00:16:06,560 --> 00:16:09,200 Speaker 3: a motion to vacate hanging over his head. Listen to 289 00:16:09,240 --> 00:16:12,560 Speaker 3: the speaker before we assemble our panel for the baseline. 290 00:16:12,560 --> 00:16:14,480 Speaker 3: This is the news that came out this morning on 291 00:16:14,880 --> 00:16:16,880 Speaker 3: his path forward. Let's listen. 292 00:16:17,440 --> 00:16:21,840 Speaker 4: I put out a preliminary plan, as you all know, 293 00:16:22,120 --> 00:16:26,640 Speaker 4: on these measures to handle these matters from Israel to 294 00:16:26,960 --> 00:16:30,960 Speaker 4: Ukraine to the Indo Pacific Region. And the fourth bill 295 00:16:31,000 --> 00:16:33,520 Speaker 4: in this package would be our Priorities, which is the 296 00:16:33,560 --> 00:16:36,600 Speaker 4: REPO Act, and we implement the loan concept and all 297 00:16:36,640 --> 00:16:41,120 Speaker 4: of this and the supplemental discussion. But the will of 298 00:16:41,240 --> 00:16:45,160 Speaker 4: our body is to find every possible way using this 299 00:16:45,280 --> 00:16:48,400 Speaker 4: legislation and every legislation that we pass, to try to 300 00:16:48,480 --> 00:16:52,240 Speaker 4: use as leverage to get the administration to get control 301 00:16:52,240 --> 00:16:52,840 Speaker 4: of that border. 302 00:16:55,640 --> 00:16:58,000 Speaker 3: But will it work? What if one of them fails? 303 00:16:58,800 --> 00:17:02,680 Speaker 3: What if they all fail? Or does Mike Johnson look 304 00:17:02,720 --> 00:17:04,879 Speaker 3: like a genius when this is done because somehow they 305 00:17:04,960 --> 00:17:07,600 Speaker 3: all pass, knowing that each quarter had opposition to one 306 00:17:07,760 --> 00:17:10,920 Speaker 3: or the other, and then he brings the body back 307 00:17:10,960 --> 00:17:13,680 Speaker 3: to life. Let's assemble the panel. Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzana. 308 00:17:13,720 --> 00:17:16,520 Speaker 3: We've been waiting months like you and I have been 309 00:17:16,520 --> 00:17:17,919 Speaker 3: to find out how this is all going to work. 310 00:17:17,960 --> 00:17:22,040 Speaker 3: Our signature panel back with us today, Rick Davis, smart 311 00:17:22,080 --> 00:17:24,000 Speaker 3: move for Mike Johnson. What do you make of this? 312 00:17:25,119 --> 00:17:28,000 Speaker 6: You know, I think anything that gets this bill moving, 313 00:17:28,080 --> 00:17:31,240 Speaker 6: or this you know series of bills moving and fund 314 00:17:31,400 --> 00:17:34,399 Speaker 6: Ukraine is a step in the right direction. But you 315 00:17:34,560 --> 00:17:36,679 Speaker 6: just mentioned this has been months in the works. How 316 00:17:36,720 --> 00:17:38,879 Speaker 6: many Ukrainians have lost their lives because of lack of 317 00:17:38,960 --> 00:17:41,880 Speaker 6: ammunition and an ability to fight the Russians the way 318 00:17:41,960 --> 00:17:44,879 Speaker 6: we had wanted them to all along. I mean, this 319 00:17:45,040 --> 00:17:47,639 Speaker 6: is this is not progress. This is the end of 320 00:17:47,680 --> 00:17:51,119 Speaker 6: a painful and horrific process that showed weakness within the 321 00:17:51,200 --> 00:17:54,560 Speaker 6: United States toward our allies. That no good thing will 322 00:17:54,600 --> 00:17:56,600 Speaker 6: come out of this other than getting this over with, 323 00:17:56,680 --> 00:18:00,639 Speaker 6: and hopefully the Speaker has the ability to marshal the 324 00:18:00,680 --> 00:18:03,560 Speaker 6: resources when there's caucus actually get these votes done this 325 00:18:03,600 --> 00:18:06,679 Speaker 6: week before they leave for recess. This is the second 326 00:18:06,720 --> 00:18:09,000 Speaker 6: recess in a month that they'll be going on, and 327 00:18:09,400 --> 00:18:12,480 Speaker 6: the last one they took for two weeks resulted in 328 00:18:12,560 --> 00:18:15,399 Speaker 6: nothing happening. So I'm not going to bank on this 329 00:18:15,520 --> 00:18:18,760 Speaker 6: until it's done. But it sounds like basically the same 330 00:18:18,800 --> 00:18:21,800 Speaker 6: bill the Senate sent them months ago that could have 331 00:18:21,880 --> 00:18:24,760 Speaker 6: been done over with without having to deal with this 332 00:18:24,840 --> 00:18:26,040 Speaker 6: current situation. 333 00:18:26,720 --> 00:18:29,880 Speaker 3: In pieces without the border. I guess, Genie, I'm trying 334 00:18:29,880 --> 00:18:32,360 Speaker 3: to figure out if Mike Johnson is making his life 335 00:18:32,359 --> 00:18:34,520 Speaker 3: more difficult here or if this is just the only 336 00:18:34,600 --> 00:18:39,119 Speaker 3: way to get it done in the House. What do 337 00:18:39,200 --> 00:18:41,600 Speaker 3: you make of this? Knowing that progressives had a problem 338 00:18:41,800 --> 00:18:45,680 Speaker 3: with Israel, that some conservative Republicans had a problem with Ukraine. 339 00:18:45,880 --> 00:18:48,200 Speaker 3: Is this in fact the only path? 340 00:18:50,160 --> 00:18:50,440 Speaker 7: Joe? 341 00:18:50,480 --> 00:18:52,280 Speaker 1: I first have to say, you made me laugh out 342 00:18:52,320 --> 00:18:55,640 Speaker 1: loud earlier when you said the Frankenstein approach and then 343 00:18:55,680 --> 00:18:58,679 Speaker 1: the humpty dumpty. I don't know if you crain, but 344 00:18:58,760 --> 00:19:01,399 Speaker 1: those are great out loud listening to you. 345 00:19:02,560 --> 00:19:05,200 Speaker 3: So can they put him back together again? Genie? 346 00:19:06,720 --> 00:19:10,000 Speaker 1: It is perfect, Joe. And you know, my sense is 347 00:19:10,040 --> 00:19:14,480 Speaker 1: that this sort of approach worked with the lattered cr 348 00:19:14,560 --> 00:19:18,239 Speaker 1: which when when not McCarthy Johnson came up with it, 349 00:19:18,320 --> 00:19:20,480 Speaker 1: I scratched my head and then we all learned what 350 00:19:20,560 --> 00:19:23,240 Speaker 1: it was. And so I think he's trying to repeat 351 00:19:23,280 --> 00:19:25,960 Speaker 1: here with this idea that, in your words, you can 352 00:19:26,000 --> 00:19:28,480 Speaker 1: break it up and put it back together again. And 353 00:19:28,520 --> 00:19:31,359 Speaker 1: I noted a glimmer of hope this morning as this 354 00:19:31,600 --> 00:19:34,600 Speaker 1: was discussed, but that quickly has gone by the wayside. 355 00:19:34,640 --> 00:19:37,560 Speaker 1: I mean, we've heard from Tom Massey that this is 356 00:19:37,640 --> 00:19:41,080 Speaker 1: basically just handing everything over that Chuck Schumer wants, and 357 00:19:41,119 --> 00:19:43,840 Speaker 1: he'll go with Marjorie Taylor Green. You know, we've heard 358 00:19:43,880 --> 00:19:46,840 Speaker 1: Andy Biggs maybe and no, you know, he is on 359 00:19:47,240 --> 00:19:50,639 Speaker 1: very very thin ice here, and so I don't know 360 00:19:50,680 --> 00:19:53,679 Speaker 1: if this approach is going to work. The easiest path 361 00:19:54,080 --> 00:19:57,680 Speaker 1: is to pass the Senate bill. That's the quickest way 362 00:19:57,720 --> 00:20:00,760 Speaker 1: to get this done. But of course he doesn't think 363 00:20:00,800 --> 00:20:03,840 Speaker 1: that his caucus has the will to do that. So 364 00:20:04,200 --> 00:20:06,240 Speaker 1: here we are, and I am not convinced this is 365 00:20:06,280 --> 00:20:06,800 Speaker 1: going to work. 366 00:20:08,640 --> 00:20:12,520 Speaker 3: Glad you mentioned Andy Biggs. Of course at the helm 367 00:20:12,560 --> 00:20:15,639 Speaker 3: of the Freedom Caucus out with a long Twitter thread, 368 00:20:16,600 --> 00:20:19,720 Speaker 3: I supported the planned Speaker Johnson announced in conference to 369 00:20:19,760 --> 00:20:22,600 Speaker 3: allow the House to vote on the various aid packages separately, 370 00:20:22,960 --> 00:20:26,600 Speaker 3: he says, but his sense announced intent to merge them 371 00:20:27,080 --> 00:20:31,040 Speaker 3: together superfluous word there before sending them to the Senate 372 00:20:31,240 --> 00:20:35,000 Speaker 3: is wrong. So I'm getting confused here, Rick. Maybe he 373 00:20:35,040 --> 00:20:37,280 Speaker 3: really is making his life more difficult. So you pass 374 00:20:37,320 --> 00:20:40,120 Speaker 3: all four of these, what if you cannot stitch them 375 00:20:40,359 --> 00:20:44,200 Speaker 3: back together with some weird parliamentary maneuver? Is the Senate 376 00:20:44,240 --> 00:20:46,840 Speaker 3: and a clearer than one by one? 377 00:20:47,080 --> 00:20:49,600 Speaker 6: Yeah? I mean these bills would all pass the Senate. 378 00:20:49,680 --> 00:20:53,119 Speaker 6: Remember the bill that they passed initially had all of this, 379 00:20:53,280 --> 00:20:58,439 Speaker 6: including controversial border security measures, passed with seventy percent of 380 00:20:58,480 --> 00:21:01,560 Speaker 6: the United States Senate, and the Senate has been very 381 00:21:01,640 --> 00:21:05,959 Speaker 6: impatient in this process trying to get this off their docket, 382 00:21:05,960 --> 00:21:08,119 Speaker 6: because as you point out in the last segment, they 383 00:21:08,160 --> 00:21:10,080 Speaker 6: got a lot of other business to do. This was 384 00:21:10,119 --> 00:21:14,920 Speaker 6: supposed to be the easy thing to handle, the supplemental 385 00:21:15,000 --> 00:21:16,800 Speaker 6: So at the end of the day, I don't think 386 00:21:16,840 --> 00:21:18,679 Speaker 6: there's going to be much of a hurdle in the Senate. 387 00:21:19,600 --> 00:21:22,200 Speaker 6: Maybe a few people who want to take a hike 388 00:21:22,359 --> 00:21:27,600 Speaker 6: because the complexity around election year politics. But at the 389 00:21:27,680 --> 00:21:31,760 Speaker 6: end of the day, the Senate wants this ninety five 390 00:21:31,760 --> 00:21:34,879 Speaker 6: billion dollars to be spent in these priority areas, and 391 00:21:34,960 --> 00:21:37,960 Speaker 6: as long as the House bills do that, either independently 392 00:21:38,240 --> 00:21:42,480 Speaker 6: or as a total package, then I think all this 393 00:21:42,520 --> 00:21:46,440 Speaker 6: stuff sort of gets through quickly. It doesn't make any 394 00:21:46,520 --> 00:21:51,720 Speaker 6: sense what Johnson's doing other than the other version of 395 00:21:51,720 --> 00:21:55,480 Speaker 6: the Frankenstein strategy, which is the guy you create kills you. 396 00:21:55,680 --> 00:21:58,720 Speaker 6: I mean, maybe these bills this process is creating is 397 00:21:58,760 --> 00:22:00,879 Speaker 6: going to come back and kill him. That's what I 398 00:22:00,880 --> 00:22:04,720 Speaker 6: thought you were dalkingo. And so look, I mean he's 399 00:22:04,800 --> 00:22:07,520 Speaker 6: doing all this to avoid, you know, a motion to 400 00:22:07,600 --> 00:22:11,200 Speaker 6: vacate that's already sitting on the table by Marjorie Taylor Green. 401 00:22:11,560 --> 00:22:15,200 Speaker 6: So what to be more interesting to me is whether 402 00:22:15,280 --> 00:22:18,680 Speaker 6: these Freedom Caucus types and Marjorie Taylor Green band together 403 00:22:18,760 --> 00:22:21,960 Speaker 6: for a little, you know, reunion party and actually take 404 00:22:22,040 --> 00:22:22,880 Speaker 6: down this speaker. 405 00:22:24,680 --> 00:22:26,879 Speaker 3: Rick just completed the analogy for us. Now we've been 406 00:22:26,920 --> 00:22:29,760 Speaker 3: made whole here in just our first hour. What a 407 00:22:29,800 --> 00:22:32,520 Speaker 3: productive conversation. As always with our panel, Rick Davis and 408 00:22:32,600 --> 00:22:38,120 Speaker 3: Genie Shanzeno. Democrats come in to play here. Potentially, it's 409 00:22:38,200 --> 00:22:42,000 Speaker 3: just a question of how many he will need, Genie, 410 00:22:42,080 --> 00:22:44,760 Speaker 3: if he can't get a rule passed, and we're just 411 00:22:44,840 --> 00:22:47,480 Speaker 3: going to walk out here for a second. This speaker's 412 00:22:47,520 --> 00:22:49,960 Speaker 3: had a real problem with the Rules Committee. You've got 413 00:22:50,000 --> 00:22:52,160 Speaker 3: people like Chip Roy and others on the committee who 414 00:22:52,200 --> 00:22:55,119 Speaker 3: do not want to see a lot of this take place. 415 00:22:55,160 --> 00:22:57,000 Speaker 3: If he can't get a rule, which is how you 416 00:22:57,000 --> 00:23:00,520 Speaker 3: get a bill on the floor, a schoolhouse rock. That 417 00:23:00,560 --> 00:23:02,800 Speaker 3: means he has to suspend the rules, and then it's 418 00:23:02,840 --> 00:23:04,920 Speaker 3: a question of whether Democrats will be there for him. 419 00:23:04,920 --> 00:23:06,040 Speaker 3: Will they? 420 00:23:06,920 --> 00:23:07,119 Speaker 2: You know? 421 00:23:07,920 --> 00:23:11,320 Speaker 1: I am not sure. I am, as usual, less optimistic 422 00:23:11,440 --> 00:23:14,280 Speaker 1: than Rick sounds that this is going to be easy 423 00:23:14,480 --> 00:23:17,440 Speaker 1: by any stretch of the imagination. You know, the reality 424 00:23:17,560 --> 00:23:20,960 Speaker 1: is we haven't seen the bill yet. There is no 425 00:23:21,560 --> 00:23:24,800 Speaker 1: text there number one, number two. I'm not so sure 426 00:23:24,840 --> 00:23:26,600 Speaker 1: this is going to be that easy to put together. 427 00:23:26,720 --> 00:23:28,359 Speaker 1: If they pass it in the House, which is a 428 00:23:28,359 --> 00:23:28,760 Speaker 1: big if. 429 00:23:29,080 --> 00:23:30,240 Speaker 7: In the Senate, I mean. 430 00:23:30,400 --> 00:23:35,280 Speaker 1: There were protests across the country massive about the issue 431 00:23:35,320 --> 00:23:39,080 Speaker 1: of Gaza and Israel. Democrats are going to be very 432 00:23:39,119 --> 00:23:43,440 Speaker 1: concerned if this thing, the one package on Israel, passes 433 00:23:43,440 --> 00:23:47,360 Speaker 1: without conditions. Then you add to that any poison pills 434 00:23:47,440 --> 00:23:50,840 Speaker 1: that Republicans put into this package or Johnson does to 435 00:23:50,840 --> 00:23:52,879 Speaker 1: get it over the hurdle, that's going to be a 436 00:23:52,920 --> 00:23:55,280 Speaker 1: no go for the Senate. So you know, if it 437 00:23:55,280 --> 00:23:57,560 Speaker 1: passes the House, I'm not convinced it passes the Senate, 438 00:23:57,680 --> 00:23:59,560 Speaker 1: but again, it all depends on what it looks like 439 00:24:00,160 --> 00:24:03,679 Speaker 1: and you know, getting if you go on suspension. I 440 00:24:03,760 --> 00:24:06,240 Speaker 1: don't know that he has two thirds to get this passed. 441 00:24:06,640 --> 00:24:12,040 Speaker 1: But any idea that the Democrats can save Mike Johnson's 442 00:24:12,760 --> 00:24:17,120 Speaker 1: Mike Johnson's job is just ridiculous because even if they 443 00:24:17,160 --> 00:24:20,360 Speaker 1: say that he is essentially a dead man walking. I mean, 444 00:24:20,440 --> 00:24:23,320 Speaker 1: you know, you cannot be the speaker of the repub 445 00:24:23,440 --> 00:24:27,000 Speaker 1: of the House where Republicans control by way of Democrats, 446 00:24:27,040 --> 00:24:29,399 Speaker 1: So it is a fool's errand to think that he 447 00:24:29,440 --> 00:24:31,639 Speaker 1: would look to Democrats, and if he did, he'd be 448 00:24:31,920 --> 00:24:35,040 Speaker 1: again dead. So you know, this is a very, very 449 00:24:35,080 --> 00:24:36,840 Speaker 1: tough situation for Mike Johnson. 450 00:24:37,960 --> 00:24:39,840 Speaker 3: God knows it. Rick, I'd like to hear from you 451 00:24:39,880 --> 00:24:42,920 Speaker 3: on this today, because Marjorie Taylor Green did speak earlier, 452 00:24:43,280 --> 00:24:46,359 Speaker 3: and as we've told our listeners and viewers. Tom Massey, 453 00:24:46,480 --> 00:24:49,960 Speaker 3: Republican from Kentucky, says he's with Marjorie Taylor Green on 454 00:24:50,000 --> 00:24:53,400 Speaker 3: the motion of Vaca. So she found another she said, quote, 455 00:24:53,440 --> 00:24:56,359 Speaker 3: this is really interesting. We want to read between the 456 00:24:56,440 --> 00:25:01,040 Speaker 3: lines here. I support the majority, and I want it 457 00:25:01,080 --> 00:25:03,240 Speaker 3: next time the majority. She wants to keep the House, 458 00:25:03,240 --> 00:25:07,960 Speaker 3: she's saying, So I'm being careful. He's definitely not going 459 00:25:08,000 --> 00:25:11,639 Speaker 3: to be speaker next Congress if we're lucky enough to 460 00:25:11,680 --> 00:25:14,840 Speaker 3: have the majority. Doesn't that sound like this whole thing 461 00:25:14,960 --> 00:25:18,879 Speaker 3: just ended. She's talking about Mike Johnson being careful and 462 00:25:19,000 --> 00:25:22,920 Speaker 3: Mike Johnson not being speaker next Congress. Rick, We shouldn't 463 00:25:22,960 --> 00:25:24,320 Speaker 3: be taking this seriously, should we? 464 00:25:25,520 --> 00:25:28,720 Speaker 6: Yeah? Look, I'm not. I take very little of what 465 00:25:28,760 --> 00:25:32,959 Speaker 6: Marjorie Taylor Green says seriously. It's all performance act. I 466 00:25:33,000 --> 00:25:35,200 Speaker 6: think you know, she probably sitting on a memo for 467 00:25:35,359 --> 00:25:37,800 Speaker 6: mar a Lago that says, stand down, we don't need 468 00:25:37,840 --> 00:25:40,680 Speaker 6: this chaos. Yeah, I think that would be the one 469 00:25:40,760 --> 00:25:43,440 Speaker 6: thing that Speaker Johnson got done when he went down 470 00:25:43,480 --> 00:25:46,879 Speaker 6: there to have his press conference with Trump. So at 471 00:25:46,920 --> 00:25:49,040 Speaker 6: the end of the day, it's more important for Marjorie 472 00:25:49,040 --> 00:25:51,159 Speaker 6: Taylor Green to get invited to the Christmas party at 473 00:25:51,200 --> 00:25:53,240 Speaker 6: mar Lago this year than it's going to be to 474 00:25:53,280 --> 00:25:55,800 Speaker 6: decide who's going to be Speaker of the House of Representatives. 475 00:25:55,840 --> 00:25:59,080 Speaker 6: So my guess is she's going to follow the pattern. 476 00:25:59,240 --> 00:26:03,560 Speaker 6: And I would say that I think there is a 477 00:26:03,600 --> 00:26:05,560 Speaker 6: path for Johnson if he had any courage, and that 478 00:26:05,760 --> 00:26:08,040 Speaker 6: is to get one hundred and fifty problem solvers in 479 00:26:08,080 --> 00:26:10,359 Speaker 6: the Republican side and the same number in Democrats and 480 00:26:10,400 --> 00:26:12,680 Speaker 6: say I'm gonna I'm going to create a coalition government. 481 00:26:13,560 --> 00:26:15,640 Speaker 6: I'm going to you know, govern from the center. I'm 482 00:26:15,640 --> 00:26:17,000 Speaker 6: going to get a lot of things done in an 483 00:26:17,000 --> 00:26:20,200 Speaker 6: election year that hardly ever get done, and maybe even 484 00:26:20,200 --> 00:26:22,960 Speaker 6: make a commitment to pass a budget by September of 485 00:26:23,000 --> 00:26:25,679 Speaker 6: this year. And he would go down in history as 486 00:26:25,720 --> 00:26:28,679 Speaker 6: one of the most successful and impressive leaders of our time. 487 00:26:29,680 --> 00:26:32,080 Speaker 6: There's zero chances that's going to happen, but that's always 488 00:26:32,119 --> 00:26:32,560 Speaker 6: an option. 489 00:26:34,359 --> 00:26:38,399 Speaker 3: Just imagine waking up and reading a story like that, Genie. 490 00:26:38,400 --> 00:26:43,480 Speaker 3: Did Donald Trump tell Marjorie Taylor Green to stand back 491 00:26:43,520 --> 00:26:46,480 Speaker 3: and stand by? 492 00:26:46,600 --> 00:26:50,160 Speaker 1: It sounds like he did, although you know, Donald Trump 493 00:26:50,240 --> 00:26:53,080 Speaker 1: can be with you one moment and against you the next. 494 00:26:53,119 --> 00:26:55,399 Speaker 1: So I think if I was Mike Johnson, I'd be 495 00:26:55,960 --> 00:26:59,760 Speaker 1: very concerned that his opinion remain what it was on Friday, 496 00:26:59,800 --> 00:27:03,080 Speaker 1: you know, supportive the way it was publicly, because he 497 00:27:03,119 --> 00:27:05,800 Speaker 1: can shift on a dime. Donald Trump doesn't like people 498 00:27:05,840 --> 00:27:09,200 Speaker 1: who lose. If Mike Johnson loses this vote, who knows 499 00:27:09,240 --> 00:27:11,640 Speaker 1: if Donald Trump will stand with him. But we do 500 00:27:11,760 --> 00:27:15,080 Speaker 1: know that beyond Donald Trump, the campaign of Donald Trump 501 00:27:15,119 --> 00:27:17,760 Speaker 1: is very concerned about all this chaos in the house, 502 00:27:17,800 --> 00:27:20,119 Speaker 1: so they have been pushing it and that's why he 503 00:27:20,160 --> 00:27:23,560 Speaker 1: went out on Friday for Marjorie Taylor Green to stand down. 504 00:27:23,960 --> 00:27:27,760 Speaker 1: So she may well do that. But again, you know, 505 00:27:27,960 --> 00:27:31,000 Speaker 1: nothing is certain when it comes to Donald Trump's support, 506 00:27:31,080 --> 00:27:33,600 Speaker 1: and so Mike Johnson's got to be very careful about that. 507 00:27:33,960 --> 00:27:36,639 Speaker 1: And you know, I agree with Rick. Wouldn't it be 508 00:27:36,760 --> 00:27:40,399 Speaker 1: remarkable and wouldn't it make sense for Johnson who isn't 509 00:27:40,400 --> 00:27:43,240 Speaker 1: going to be re elected speaker. If he stopped worrying 510 00:27:43,280 --> 00:27:46,480 Speaker 1: about his job and just is holding onto his job 511 00:27:46,520 --> 00:27:50,359 Speaker 1: and just did his job, that would be remarkable. And 512 00:27:50,440 --> 00:27:52,760 Speaker 1: yet we've seen no signs that he's going to do that, 513 00:27:52,880 --> 00:27:55,040 Speaker 1: because he's not going to be Speaker again, so he 514 00:27:55,080 --> 00:27:57,520 Speaker 1: doesn't have to worry about keeping it. He's just got 515 00:27:57,520 --> 00:27:58,560 Speaker 1: to do what's in front. 516 00:27:58,400 --> 00:28:01,879 Speaker 3: Of him shit, profile and courage, and it does not 517 00:28:02,000 --> 00:28:03,919 Speaker 3: sound like he's going to be speaker again when you 518 00:28:03,960 --> 00:28:07,080 Speaker 3: listen to so many in his own conference here. What 519 00:28:07,200 --> 00:28:09,399 Speaker 3: is going to happen today, by the way, is that 520 00:28:09,520 --> 00:28:12,880 Speaker 3: may Orcus impeachment articles are going to be sent next door. 521 00:28:12,880 --> 00:28:14,840 Speaker 3: They're going to walk these over, send them to the Senate, 522 00:28:14,880 --> 00:28:17,240 Speaker 3: where it's apparently they're going to go to live a 523 00:28:17,359 --> 00:28:19,760 Speaker 3: very short life. It's just a question of how exactly 524 00:28:19,800 --> 00:28:22,080 Speaker 3: Democrats are going to handle this and whether they'll be 525 00:28:22,119 --> 00:28:26,000 Speaker 3: dismissed on site. That's coming up just about an hour 526 00:28:26,160 --> 00:28:29,080 Speaker 3: and change from now, we'll actually see that process of 527 00:28:29,119 --> 00:28:32,480 Speaker 3: the articles walked across the rotunda to the Senate. 528 00:28:36,200 --> 00:28:39,760 Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 529 00:28:39,800 --> 00:28:42,880 Speaker 2: us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apocarplay and then 530 00:28:42,920 --> 00:28:46,400 Speaker 2: Proudoto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever 531 00:28:46,440 --> 00:28:51,760 Speaker 2: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 532 00:28:52,280 --> 00:28:54,680 Speaker 8: Joe, it's just a few blocks north of Wall Street 533 00:28:54,680 --> 00:28:57,160 Speaker 8: where the proceedings are underway at the Supreme Court here 534 00:28:57,400 --> 00:29:00,680 Speaker 8: in New York, New York Criminal Court, fifteenth floor, and 535 00:29:00,680 --> 00:29:02,440 Speaker 8: that is where Donald Trump is sitting as we speak, 536 00:29:02,480 --> 00:29:04,600 Speaker 8: as they are still doing the very difficult work of 537 00:29:04,640 --> 00:29:07,600 Speaker 8: trying to seat a twelve person jury with six alternates 538 00:29:07,800 --> 00:29:08,760 Speaker 8: in his hush money case. 539 00:29:09,880 --> 00:29:13,440 Speaker 3: Can't imagine is making eye contact, Kaylee as we keep 540 00:29:13,480 --> 00:29:15,760 Speaker 3: hearing with these potential jurism what it must be like 541 00:29:15,800 --> 00:29:18,400 Speaker 3: for them. Of course, more than half we're dismissed yesterday, 542 00:29:18,400 --> 00:29:20,400 Speaker 3: and you must be upset to not be standing outside 543 00:29:20,440 --> 00:29:23,280 Speaker 3: in front of that courthouse all day today. Donald Trump, 544 00:29:23,360 --> 00:29:26,240 Speaker 3: of course is back, and we did hear from him earlier. 545 00:29:26,280 --> 00:29:27,360 Speaker 3: Here's the former president. 546 00:29:28,520 --> 00:29:29,080 Speaker 2: I should be. 547 00:29:29,120 --> 00:29:34,120 Speaker 9: Right now in Pennsylvania and far in many other states 548 00:29:34,200 --> 00:29:35,000 Speaker 9: North Camp. 549 00:29:34,840 --> 00:29:37,120 Speaker 3: Laddin Jojia campaign. 550 00:29:37,320 --> 00:29:40,040 Speaker 9: This is all coming from the White House because the 551 00:29:40,120 --> 00:29:44,280 Speaker 9: guy can't put two sentences together. He can't campaign the 552 00:29:44,480 --> 00:29:47,040 Speaker 9: using mission in order to try and win an election, 553 00:29:47,640 --> 00:29:48,240 Speaker 9: and it's not. 554 00:29:48,240 --> 00:29:49,080 Speaker 2: Working that way. 555 00:29:50,160 --> 00:29:53,400 Speaker 8: Donald Trump in the courthouse hallway earlier today. So we 556 00:29:53,440 --> 00:29:55,400 Speaker 8: want to get more on what exactly is happening in 557 00:29:55,440 --> 00:29:57,239 Speaker 8: that room and what is likely to happen as this 558 00:29:57,280 --> 00:29:59,760 Speaker 8: process plays out in the weeks moving forward. Joining us 559 00:29:59,800 --> 00:30:05,240 Speaker 8: now right. He's a constitutional law expert in a practicing 560 00:30:05,280 --> 00:30:10,200 Speaker 8: criminal defense and civil rights lawyer in Maricope, Americope County, Arizona. 561 00:30:10,360 --> 00:30:13,120 Speaker 8: So Robert is great to have you here on Balance 562 00:30:13,120 --> 00:30:15,240 Speaker 8: of Power on TV and radio as we think about 563 00:30:15,240 --> 00:30:18,000 Speaker 8: the way this process is unfolding. Understanding that the defense 564 00:30:18,000 --> 00:30:22,320 Speaker 8: attorneys are asking these potential jurors basically questions around their 565 00:30:22,360 --> 00:30:26,400 Speaker 8: impressions of Donald Trump. This is a former president. We're 566 00:30:26,440 --> 00:30:28,640 Speaker 8: talking about, how hard is it going to be not 567 00:30:28,680 --> 00:30:31,200 Speaker 8: just for them to get truthful answers to these questions, 568 00:30:31,240 --> 00:30:34,479 Speaker 8: but ultimately decide who is going to be unbiased in 569 00:30:34,560 --> 00:30:37,400 Speaker 8: this case. How long do you anticipate this process could 570 00:30:37,480 --> 00:30:38,840 Speaker 8: take in its entirety. 571 00:30:39,640 --> 00:30:42,560 Speaker 10: Well, look, it definitely is challenging, and this is a 572 00:30:42,640 --> 00:30:46,400 Speaker 10: challenging case and challenging jury's selection, but it's not impossible. 573 00:30:47,280 --> 00:30:49,560 Speaker 10: People are asked all the time in high profile cases, 574 00:30:49,600 --> 00:30:52,720 Speaker 10: have you ever heard of such and such? And they answered, 575 00:30:52,720 --> 00:30:54,720 Speaker 10: and the real question is can they still be fair 576 00:30:54,760 --> 00:30:58,240 Speaker 10: and impartial? And so the next subsequent round of questions 577 00:30:58,280 --> 00:31:00,600 Speaker 10: are to do that. Now the judge is already off 578 00:31:01,240 --> 00:31:04,320 Speaker 10: a number of people from the jury veneer the jury pool, 579 00:31:04,920 --> 00:31:09,120 Speaker 10: and that's because they had too many strong biases, either 580 00:31:09,200 --> 00:31:12,320 Speaker 10: for mister Trump or against mister Trump. It was a 581 00:31:12,360 --> 00:31:14,960 Speaker 10: process that benefited him just as much as it benefited 582 00:31:14,960 --> 00:31:18,360 Speaker 10: the prosecution. How long this will take, that is an 583 00:31:18,400 --> 00:31:21,320 Speaker 10: open question. I would certainly think it'll take the rest 584 00:31:21,360 --> 00:31:23,640 Speaker 10: of this week and perhaps next week. I do not 585 00:31:23,840 --> 00:31:26,000 Speaker 10: anticipate jury selection will go beyond that. 586 00:31:28,800 --> 00:31:32,280 Speaker 3: Robert, it's worth a dramatic reading some of the stuff, 587 00:31:32,320 --> 00:31:34,920 Speaker 3: the stories that we're hearing from inside the courtroom. We 588 00:31:34,960 --> 00:31:38,240 Speaker 3: have a team inside the courtroom transmitting that to us. 589 00:31:38,440 --> 00:31:40,320 Speaker 3: God knows, we wish there were cameras there, but it 590 00:31:40,360 --> 00:31:43,600 Speaker 3: doesn't work that way. As I look through some of these, 591 00:31:44,040 --> 00:31:46,640 Speaker 3: a woman being interviewed just said I think no one 592 00:31:46,680 --> 00:31:49,360 Speaker 3: is above the law, and then answered the next question 593 00:31:49,440 --> 00:31:53,040 Speaker 3: saying I think he's being traded fairly, which prompted Donald 594 00:31:53,080 --> 00:31:55,920 Speaker 3: Trump to scowl and shoot the woman a look. She 595 00:31:56,040 --> 00:31:59,160 Speaker 3: has just been excused. Another a man who still has 596 00:31:59,200 --> 00:32:01,240 Speaker 3: a chance to be on the panel, despite the fact 597 00:32:01,240 --> 00:32:03,320 Speaker 3: that he followed the president on Twitter. Says no one 598 00:32:03,400 --> 00:32:06,000 Speaker 3: is above the law, but he drew smiles in a 599 00:32:06,120 --> 00:32:08,520 Speaker 3: nod from Donald Trump when he said that he read 600 00:32:08,560 --> 00:32:11,560 Speaker 3: three of the former president's books. He named them Part 601 00:32:11,600 --> 00:32:14,120 Speaker 3: of the Deal, How to Get Rich and Think like 602 00:32:14,160 --> 00:32:16,680 Speaker 3: a Champion. He also said he'd been robbed at knife 603 00:32:16,680 --> 00:32:19,880 Speaker 3: point and that his wife had been mugged. These people 604 00:32:19,960 --> 00:32:23,160 Speaker 3: are making direct eye contact with the former president while 605 00:32:23,200 --> 00:32:26,200 Speaker 3: they're being interviewed. Do you actually believe that there will 606 00:32:26,200 --> 00:32:27,800 Speaker 3: be a fair jury when this is done? 607 00:32:29,520 --> 00:32:32,960 Speaker 10: You know, the answer to that question is yes, as 608 00:32:33,000 --> 00:32:35,880 Speaker 10: fair as juries are. The jury system is not a 609 00:32:35,880 --> 00:32:38,880 Speaker 10: perfect system. It's just better than any other system you 610 00:32:38,920 --> 00:32:41,880 Speaker 10: can think of. Yeah, there's going to be problems here. 611 00:32:41,920 --> 00:32:44,240 Speaker 10: If I was the prosecutor on that last year that 612 00:32:44,320 --> 00:32:47,200 Speaker 10: you mentioned, if the judge did not strike that juror 613 00:32:47,200 --> 00:32:51,440 Speaker 10: for cause, I would peremptively strike that juror because he's 614 00:32:51,560 --> 00:32:54,360 Speaker 10: just too much identifying with the defendant, as you would 615 00:32:54,760 --> 00:32:58,680 Speaker 10: any other criminal case where a juror is expressing too 616 00:32:58,800 --> 00:33:01,720 Speaker 10: much affinity for the defendant. If you have a trial 617 00:33:01,720 --> 00:33:03,920 Speaker 10: of a drug dealer, you don't generally want drug dealers 618 00:33:03,920 --> 00:33:06,800 Speaker 10: to be on the jury, and so that's kind of 619 00:33:06,800 --> 00:33:11,080 Speaker 10: a broad parameter. It's challenging. High profile cases are challenging. 620 00:33:11,120 --> 00:33:14,960 Speaker 10: Any high profile case of challenging because unlike most criminal cases, 621 00:33:15,000 --> 00:33:17,760 Speaker 10: there's obviously pretrop publicity here, and you have people with 622 00:33:18,000 --> 00:33:22,200 Speaker 10: pre conceived notions and opinions about the defendant, either for 623 00:33:22,480 --> 00:33:24,960 Speaker 10: or against him, and you've got to filter through that. 624 00:33:24,960 --> 00:33:28,280 Speaker 10: That's what jury selection process has done. But he will 625 00:33:28,320 --> 00:33:31,920 Speaker 10: get the jury that he deserves under the Constitution. And 626 00:33:31,960 --> 00:33:34,160 Speaker 10: I do not hold with this argument that, oh, he 627 00:33:34,160 --> 00:33:37,040 Speaker 10: can't get a fair jury in New York. Well, you know, 628 00:33:37,080 --> 00:33:38,760 Speaker 10: if this jury quits him, he's going to say it's 629 00:33:38,760 --> 00:33:41,720 Speaker 10: a fair jury. So he's getting the jury that he 630 00:33:41,760 --> 00:33:45,000 Speaker 10: deserves under the Constitution, and people struggle with goodwill to 631 00:33:45,200 --> 00:33:48,480 Speaker 10: select a good balanced jury, and hopefully the jurors, so 632 00:33:48,560 --> 00:33:52,400 Speaker 10: the potential jurors are being honest with their responses and 633 00:33:52,520 --> 00:33:54,200 Speaker 10: they will judge his case fairly. 634 00:33:54,800 --> 00:33:57,000 Speaker 8: Well, Robert As you raise one of the arguments that 635 00:33:57,040 --> 00:33:59,360 Speaker 8: Donald Trump is making that we've heard him say repeatedly 636 00:33:59,440 --> 00:34:01,280 Speaker 8: in and out of the courthouse and in other instances 637 00:34:01,280 --> 00:34:02,840 Speaker 8: as well, this idea that he won't get a fair 638 00:34:02,920 --> 00:34:05,600 Speaker 8: jury in Manhattan. Again, that it's political persecution, as we 639 00:34:05,640 --> 00:34:08,200 Speaker 8: have heard him say many times. We also did hear 640 00:34:08,239 --> 00:34:10,920 Speaker 8: from him going into court today about kind of the 641 00:34:10,960 --> 00:34:13,720 Speaker 8: substance of this case, reminding all of our listeners and viewers. 642 00:34:13,760 --> 00:34:17,240 Speaker 8: He charged with thirty four felon accounts of falsifying business records. Essentially, 643 00:34:17,320 --> 00:34:20,120 Speaker 8: the allegation that Alvin Bragg has made as a prosecutor 644 00:34:20,239 --> 00:34:22,359 Speaker 8: is that it wasn't so much that the hush money 645 00:34:22,360 --> 00:34:25,000 Speaker 8: payments were made, but when he reimbursed Michael Cohen for him, 646 00:34:25,000 --> 00:34:28,080 Speaker 8: he didn't classify them properly. He wrote them off as 647 00:34:28,160 --> 00:34:30,920 Speaker 8: legal bills rather than something that should have been associated 648 00:34:31,120 --> 00:34:33,560 Speaker 8: with his campaign. On the way into the courthouse today, 649 00:34:33,560 --> 00:34:35,600 Speaker 8: he said, a legal expense is a legal expense. It 650 00:34:35,680 --> 00:34:37,880 Speaker 8: kind of giving us a preview, perhaps of what his 651 00:34:37,920 --> 00:34:40,440 Speaker 8: defense is going to be in that case. You were 652 00:34:40,440 --> 00:34:42,400 Speaker 8: a defense attorney, you think that works. 653 00:34:44,440 --> 00:34:46,120 Speaker 10: I think I can see why that is going to 654 00:34:46,160 --> 00:34:47,920 Speaker 10: be as defense. His defense is going to be a 655 00:34:48,000 --> 00:34:50,840 Speaker 10: version of, Hey, I didn't do this to help my campaign. 656 00:34:50,920 --> 00:34:53,279 Speaker 10: I did it so that Millennia wouldn't find out. Oh 657 00:34:53,320 --> 00:34:56,360 Speaker 10: and by the way, I never slept with Stormy Daniels anyway, 658 00:34:56,360 --> 00:35:00,479 Speaker 10: So kind of do double defense with that one. But look, 659 00:35:01,200 --> 00:35:03,839 Speaker 10: I think what gets lost and other news agencies are 660 00:35:03,920 --> 00:35:06,640 Speaker 10: dishing out some of this stuff. There are victims here. 661 00:35:06,680 --> 00:35:09,839 Speaker 10: The victims are the voters and the people of New 662 00:35:09,920 --> 00:35:13,000 Speaker 10: York and the United States. Sometimes, you know, the very 663 00:35:13,040 --> 00:35:15,720 Speaker 10: same people are saying, oh, Donald Trump's being treated unfairly. 664 00:35:15,760 --> 00:35:20,240 Speaker 10: Included Donald Trump would be totally shocked if let's say, 665 00:35:20,320 --> 00:35:23,280 Speaker 10: for instance, somebody paid one hundred and thirty thousand dollars 666 00:35:23,320 --> 00:35:26,680 Speaker 10: to suppress a story about Hunter Biden when his father 667 00:35:26,800 --> 00:35:29,319 Speaker 10: was running for president, and then they had evidence that 668 00:35:29,400 --> 00:35:32,840 Speaker 10: his father was the one who did that, they would 669 00:35:32,840 --> 00:35:35,200 Speaker 10: be all over that and say this should be prosecuted. Well, 670 00:35:35,280 --> 00:35:38,920 Speaker 10: this is no different here. This and from what we've 671 00:35:38,960 --> 00:35:42,840 Speaker 10: seen reported the prosecutor as evidence that Donald Trump approved 672 00:35:42,840 --> 00:35:48,200 Speaker 10: this specifically to prevent Stormy Daniels's story from getting out 673 00:35:48,239 --> 00:35:50,360 Speaker 10: at a time when he was running for president. Now 674 00:35:50,719 --> 00:35:53,200 Speaker 10: he's already gotten some favorable rulings from the judge in 675 00:35:53,239 --> 00:35:56,120 Speaker 10: this case. He's getting a fair trial. The judge, for instance, 676 00:35:56,120 --> 00:35:59,920 Speaker 10: suppressed so far evidence of the access Hollywood tape coming in, 677 00:36:00,160 --> 00:36:03,400 Speaker 10: which kind of shows Donald Trump's motivation. So Donald Trump 678 00:36:03,440 --> 00:36:05,640 Speaker 10: is getting a fair trial. And I will say something 679 00:36:05,640 --> 00:36:09,520 Speaker 10: else too. This argument about somehow this is engineered by 680 00:36:09,520 --> 00:36:12,080 Speaker 10: the Biden administration is absurd. There's no evidence of that. 681 00:36:12,480 --> 00:36:15,239 Speaker 10: And his argument that I could be someplace else campaigning, 682 00:36:15,280 --> 00:36:17,960 Speaker 10: you know, blah blah blah. Well, don't forget that this 683 00:36:18,040 --> 00:36:20,839 Speaker 10: trial could have happened a year and a half ago. 684 00:36:21,040 --> 00:36:25,280 Speaker 10: It is Donald Trump and his lawyers seeking to delay, delay, delay, 685 00:36:25,320 --> 00:36:28,600 Speaker 10: delay that's gotten the trial happening right now rather than 686 00:36:28,880 --> 00:36:31,799 Speaker 10: months and months and months ago. So Donald's a really 687 00:36:31,840 --> 00:36:34,719 Speaker 10: shit point complained about that. He's the one who created 688 00:36:34,920 --> 00:36:35,640 Speaker 10: this trial date. 689 00:36:36,960 --> 00:36:39,920 Speaker 3: We're spending time with constitutional law expert and attorney Robert 690 00:36:39,960 --> 00:36:44,480 Speaker 3: mcwherterer on this second day of Donald Trump's criminal trial, Robert, 691 00:36:44,480 --> 00:36:46,480 Speaker 3: while you're with us here in our remaining moments. A 692 00:36:46,480 --> 00:36:48,920 Speaker 3: lot of folks have questioned the veracity of this trial, 693 00:36:48,960 --> 00:36:51,920 Speaker 3: suggesting that it's the weakest of the four that Donald 694 00:36:51,920 --> 00:36:55,600 Speaker 3: Trump could have faced or may still face before the 695 00:36:55,640 --> 00:36:58,440 Speaker 3: election in November. But what's it going to be like 696 00:36:58,480 --> 00:37:00,680 Speaker 3: when testimony begins? What is it going to be like 697 00:37:00,719 --> 00:37:03,799 Speaker 3: when Stormy Daniels is telling her story and that'll be 698 00:37:03,840 --> 00:37:06,200 Speaker 3: the front page news or Michael Cohen? Is this going 699 00:37:06,239 --> 00:37:08,560 Speaker 3: to feel different? Well? 700 00:37:08,760 --> 00:37:10,600 Speaker 10: I do agree. By the way, this is the weakest 701 00:37:10,600 --> 00:37:12,400 Speaker 10: of the four cases. That does not mean that it's 702 00:37:12,480 --> 00:37:15,840 Speaker 10: not a case that the prosecutor can win. This case 703 00:37:15,920 --> 00:37:20,360 Speaker 10: will come down to the testimony of two people, Stephanie Clifford, 704 00:37:20,400 --> 00:37:24,840 Speaker 10: Stormy Daniels and Michael Cohen. The defense strategy here is 705 00:37:24,880 --> 00:37:28,120 Speaker 10: to try to attack both of them, especially Michael Cohen. 706 00:37:29,280 --> 00:37:32,000 Speaker 10: I don't think in my experience, and I've had many 707 00:37:32,000 --> 00:37:36,840 Speaker 10: many trials where somebody is a snitch and they testify, 708 00:37:36,920 --> 00:37:40,239 Speaker 10: and then you attack them for their interest in testifying 709 00:37:40,280 --> 00:37:43,319 Speaker 10: against somebody, the juries are very good at saying, yeah, 710 00:37:43,360 --> 00:37:45,719 Speaker 10: he's doing that and he's self interested, but doesn't mean 711 00:37:45,719 --> 00:37:48,720 Speaker 10: what he's saying is not true. Just because Michael Cohen 712 00:37:49,200 --> 00:37:52,200 Speaker 10: is saying stuff about his former boss and he's getting 713 00:37:52,239 --> 00:37:54,960 Speaker 10: a deal for it or has gotten benefit from it, 714 00:37:54,960 --> 00:37:57,279 Speaker 10: doesn't mean that what he says is not true. I mean, 715 00:37:57,320 --> 00:38:00,360 Speaker 10: you can be kind of self interested and still honest. 716 00:38:01,560 --> 00:38:04,040 Speaker 10: And I also think that in this case, having just 717 00:38:04,160 --> 00:38:08,200 Speaker 10: seen her, I think Stormy Daniels is going to be 718 00:38:08,239 --> 00:38:13,200 Speaker 10: a very strong witness against mister Trump. And I must say, 719 00:38:13,480 --> 00:38:16,600 Speaker 10: in this whole sort of affair, at least from what 720 00:38:16,680 --> 00:38:19,560 Speaker 10: I see publicly, the person that's shown the most integrity 721 00:38:19,560 --> 00:38:22,279 Speaker 10: and honesty so far has been the sex worker. I mean, 722 00:38:22,360 --> 00:38:25,320 Speaker 10: she seems to just have a straightforward reason. She says 723 00:38:25,360 --> 00:38:27,640 Speaker 10: she slept with Donald Trump because she's a sex worker 724 00:38:27,680 --> 00:38:30,760 Speaker 10: and the check cleared. Well, that's pretty honest. The jury 725 00:38:30,800 --> 00:38:33,960 Speaker 10: cares about honesty. Other things are not quite as important to. 726 00:38:33,960 --> 00:38:36,759 Speaker 8: Them, and Robert in our final minute here with you, 727 00:38:36,840 --> 00:38:39,000 Speaker 8: it's worth noting that, of course, this trial will be 728 00:38:39,040 --> 00:38:41,399 Speaker 8: taking place every weekday except Wednesdays. There were a few 729 00:38:41,400 --> 00:38:44,640 Speaker 8: things that Trump wanted to be excused for. One of 730 00:38:44,640 --> 00:38:46,839 Speaker 8: them is happening next week at the Supreme Court on 731 00:38:46,840 --> 00:38:49,880 Speaker 8: April twenty fifth, when it's arguments in his immunity from 732 00:38:49,960 --> 00:38:52,919 Speaker 8: prosecution question related to the twenty twenty election case brought 733 00:38:52,960 --> 00:38:55,680 Speaker 8: by Jack Smith. But the High Court is also hearing 734 00:38:55,760 --> 00:39:01,840 Speaker 8: something else today, specifically related to riot urges around January sixth, 735 00:39:01,920 --> 00:39:06,840 Speaker 8: essentially a question as to whether an obstruction of proceeding 736 00:39:06,880 --> 00:39:10,279 Speaker 8: an official proceeding should be applied to the extent that 737 00:39:10,320 --> 00:39:12,440 Speaker 8: it is in the cases of those who were present 738 00:39:12,520 --> 00:39:15,120 Speaker 8: on January sixth. It does seem like some of the 739 00:39:15,239 --> 00:39:18,359 Speaker 8: justices are quite skeptical of this. What is your read 740 00:39:18,880 --> 00:39:20,160 Speaker 8: on that case? In particular. 741 00:39:21,000 --> 00:39:23,040 Speaker 10: Well, that case in particular is the Fisher case, Fisher 742 00:39:23,080 --> 00:39:25,360 Speaker 10: versus the United States, and it had to do with 743 00:39:25,400 --> 00:39:31,080 Speaker 10: the Sabrans, the Financial Fraud Act that was passed after 744 00:39:31,120 --> 00:39:34,600 Speaker 10: the Enron standard, right, And what happened is in the 745 00:39:34,680 --> 00:39:37,359 Speaker 10: Enron situation, a bunch of accountants for Enron just has 746 00:39:37,360 --> 00:39:39,640 Speaker 10: started to start shredding all kinds of evidence, and there 747 00:39:39,680 --> 00:39:43,080 Speaker 10: was no statute against it. So they created this statute. Now, 748 00:39:43,120 --> 00:39:46,600 Speaker 10: the statute, although it was written for that circumstance, has 749 00:39:46,760 --> 00:39:50,960 Speaker 10: very broad language, and the prosecutors apply that language to 750 00:39:51,280 --> 00:39:55,560 Speaker 10: the situation of January sixth and these defendants. And so 751 00:39:56,040 --> 00:39:59,120 Speaker 10: that is pretty common in law. You have a statute 752 00:39:59,120 --> 00:40:01,320 Speaker 10: written for one thing, but the language is written broadly 753 00:40:01,400 --> 00:40:04,800 Speaker 10: enough to cover another. It is an argument he could 754 00:40:05,640 --> 00:40:08,000 Speaker 10: have some success in the court on that argument, although 755 00:40:08,040 --> 00:40:12,040 Speaker 10: at the end I don't think so. And of course 756 00:40:12,120 --> 00:40:14,600 Speaker 10: mister Fisher is bringing that. But the real person who's interested, 757 00:40:14,600 --> 00:40:17,680 Speaker 10: of course, is Donald Trump, because he's facing potentially the 758 00:40:17,719 --> 00:40:20,799 Speaker 10: same criminal charges as mister Fisher is. I will also 759 00:40:20,840 --> 00:40:24,040 Speaker 10: note that mister Fisher has several other charges, as do 760 00:40:24,120 --> 00:40:30,359 Speaker 10: these January sixth defendants, that would actually they can be 761 00:40:30,360 --> 00:40:35,560 Speaker 10: found guilty on beyond just what that is, so you know, 762 00:40:35,640 --> 00:40:38,000 Speaker 10: so we'll see how that kind of works out. I 763 00:40:38,040 --> 00:40:39,319 Speaker 10: don't know if you want to have time to go 764 00:40:39,360 --> 00:40:42,240 Speaker 10: into the presidential immunity argument, but but I could comment 765 00:40:42,280 --> 00:40:43,799 Speaker 10: on that too, but I know we're press for time. 766 00:40:44,000 --> 00:40:45,840 Speaker 3: Oh, we'd love to have you back. We want to 767 00:40:45,880 --> 00:40:48,440 Speaker 3: stay close to you. Robert, appreciate your analysis. As always, 768 00:40:48,440 --> 00:40:54,480 Speaker 3: today Robert mcwerder with us. Thanks for listening to the 769 00:40:54,520 --> 00:40:57,880 Speaker 3: Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you 770 00:40:57,880 --> 00:41:01,359 Speaker 3: haven't already an Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts, 771 00:41:01,800 --> 00:41:04,280 Speaker 3: and you can find us live every weekday from Washington, 772 00:41:04,360 --> 00:41:07,320 Speaker 3: DC at noontime Eastern at Bloomberg dot com