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Speaker 1: Good morning.

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Speaker 2: I'm Richard Salama.

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Speaker 3: And I'm Doug Krisner. Here are the stories we're following today.

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Speaker 2: Former President Donald Trump will surrender at seven point thirty

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Speaker 2: pm at the Fulton County Jail in Atlanta. It's on

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Speaker 2: charges that he conspire to overturn the results of the

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty presidential election, according to a post by Trump

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Speaker 2: on his truth social media that's what he said anyway,

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Speaker 2: and all nineteen defendants in the case brought by Fulton

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Speaker 2: County District Attorney Fanny Willis have been turning themselves in

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Speaker 2: this week. Of course, all of this ahead of a

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Speaker 2: twenty fifth of August deadline to surrender or face arrest.

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Speaker 2: It will be the fourth time this year that Trump

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Speaker 2: has been processed as a criminal defendant as he seeks

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Speaker 2: a return to the White House in the twenty twenty

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Speaker 2: four election. Bloomberg's actually will have more throughout the evening

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Speaker 2: and morning for us. Please stick with Bloomberg ready for

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Speaker 2: ongoing coverage.

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Speaker 3: Well tomorrow morning in the US markets will be focusing

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Speaker 3: their attention on the mountains of Wyoming, not literally, but

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Speaker 3: that's where fed Scherch Powell will be when he addresses

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Speaker 3: the annual gathering of central bankers at the fed's Jackson

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Speaker 3: Holes Symposium. Bloomberg's Michael McKee is there and he has

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Speaker 3: the latest.

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Speaker 4: The theme of this conference is structural changes in the

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Speaker 4: economy going forward? Are we going to go back to

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Speaker 4: the nineteen nineties era of higher inflation and higher interest

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Speaker 4: rates but the economy boom during those years? Do we

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Speaker 4: go back to the pre pandemic level of low interest

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Speaker 4: rates and low inflation? All the things that have happened

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Speaker 4: with supply chains, reshoring, energy prices, all those things, and

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Speaker 4: how they're going to affect policy going forward. And I

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Speaker 4: think there's a lot of interest in that among the

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Speaker 4: people here because they don't think there's much more to

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Speaker 4: say about the current policy regime in the US or

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Speaker 4: any of the other countries.

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Speaker 3: Bloomberg's Michael McKee there part of our team covering the

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Speaker 3: Jackson Holes Symposium much more on a four hour special

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Speaker 3: that will be a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance. It

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Speaker 3: begins at a am Wall Street time.

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Speaker 2: We shot, all right, well, we've got formas in Lewis,

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Speaker 2: FED President Jim Bullard saying markets and we have to

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Speaker 2: wait for a signal that interest rates are coming down

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Speaker 2: thanks to the strength of the American economy. He spoke

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Speaker 2: earlier with us at Bloomberg.

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Speaker 5: Those that have been predicting imminent recession are having a

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Speaker 5: lot of trouble here. It doesn't seem to be happening.

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Speaker 5: And this reacceleration could put upward pressure on inflation, stem

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Speaker 5: the disinflation that we're seeing, and instead delay plans for

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Speaker 5: the Fed to change policy.

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Speaker 2: That is Jim Bullard, formerly with the Lewis feddis now

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Speaker 2: dean at Purdue University's Business School. And we did get

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Speaker 2: another sign of strength for the labor market with the

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Speaker 2: as Doug mentioned earlier, US joblest claims last week falling

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Speaker 2: to the lowest level in three weeks, to two hundred

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Speaker 2: and thirty thousand. That's ten thousand fewer than economists surveyed

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Speaker 2: by Bloomberg.

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Speaker 3: We go to JP Morgan Chase next. The bank has

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Speaker 3: won a round in court, the story from Bloomberg's and Kates.

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Speaker 6: A federal appeals court has ruled that a one point

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Speaker 6: eight billion dollar leverage loan was not a security, a

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Speaker 6: victory for the banking and private equity industries. The decision

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Speaker 6: stemmed from a security's fraud lawsuit brought by a trustee

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Speaker 6: for note purchasers and a twenty fourteen syndicated loan deal

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Speaker 6: led by JP Morgan. Soon after the notes began trading,

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Speaker 6: the borrower drug testing company Millennium Health, ran into legal

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Speaker 6: trouble and filed for bankruptcy. The justices determined that the

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Speaker 6: notes failed to meet three out of four factors set

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Speaker 6: by the Supreme Court to determine whether an investment constitutes

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Speaker 6: a security under US law. In Washington and Kate's Bloomberg

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Speaker 6: Daybreak Asia, all right.

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Speaker 2: Well, we're looking at what's we're going on with the

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Speaker 2: regulator in Beijing. Authorities there ramp up efforts to bols

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Speaker 2: of what really have been China's fragile and arguably skittish

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Speaker 2: markets as well. Let's get details from Bloomx Joanna Wall.

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Speaker 1: China Securities Regulatory Commission said it held a seminar on

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Speaker 1: Thursday with executives of the country's pension fund and some

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Speaker 1: large scale bank and insurers, and they vowed to help

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Speaker 1: stabilize the stock market and boost economic development. The CSRC

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Speaker 1: arged executives at the longer term funds to boost equity

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Speaker 1: investments and pledge to establish a long term evaluation system

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Speaker 1: over three years. China has taken a series of other

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Speaker 1: steps recently to support its markets. This includes requesting state

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Speaker 1: owned banks to escalate intervention to support the yuan and

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Speaker 1: slashing handling fees in stock transactions. And this comes as

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Speaker 1: overseas funds have been fleeing the mainline market. China's equity

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Speaker 1: benchmarkts among the worst global performers this month. In Hong

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Speaker 1: Kong'm joined Wong, Bloomberg, Dabrigasha and.

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Speaker 3: Staying with China. It appears consumer sentiment improved in the

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Speaker 3: month of August. That would snap several months of decline.

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Speaker 3: Even so, data from two surveys indicates it still remains

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Speaker 3: weak compared to even earlier in the year.

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Speaker 5: Now.

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Speaker 3: Economists want to see if this trend continues, since consumption

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Speaker 3: has slowed in recent months that because of waning confidence.

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Speaker 3: We've been talking about that along with the slump in

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Speaker 3: the housing market. A bi monthly survey from Bank of

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Speaker 3: America indicates the share of Chinese consumers planning to spend

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Speaker 3: more over the next six months and those intending to

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Speaker 3: trade up to more expensive brands increased in August compared

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Speaker 3: with a month of June. And at the same time,

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Speaker 3: a measure of Chinese consumers sentiment from the US firm

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Speaker 3: Morning Consult also improved in the month of August, although

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Speaker 3: to be fair, it fell short of that peak from

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Speaker 3: back in twenty twenty one. We'll take a look at

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Speaker 3: Global News next. Donald Trump is planning to surrender in

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Speaker 3: Georgia within the next two hours. Let's get to Ed

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Speaker 3: Baxter in the Bloomberg newsroom in San Francisco.

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Speaker 7: Eddie, Yeah, that's exactly Whight dougas plant schedule to land

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Speaker 7: at six forty five Wall Street time and has posted

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Speaker 7: that he will turn himself in at seven point thirty.

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Speaker 7: Bloomberg's Kaylee Lyon says this one was a couple of

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Speaker 7: differences from the others, notably a mug shot. Kaylee says

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Speaker 7: that Da Fanny Willis has asked for a trial.

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Speaker 8: Date, suggesting that this should go to trial on October

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Speaker 8: twenty third of this year, just about three months from now,

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Speaker 8: but as a very expedited timeline. The legal experts we

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Speaker 8: have talked to since these charges initially were brought say

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Speaker 8: given the size and scope the sheer number of defendants,

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Speaker 8: they expect this could even take beyond the twenty twenty

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Speaker 8: four November election, so that timeline may not be ultra realistic, and.

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Speaker 7: The House Republicans are probing her Fannie Wallace as she

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Speaker 7: prosecutes Trump. The Judiciary Committee statement says the prosecution implicates

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Speaker 7: substantial federal interest and concerns about motivation, and Trump chief

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Speaker 7: of Staff Mark Meadows, by the way, turned himself in

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Speaker 7: earlier in the day. Bond set at one hundred thousand dollars.

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Speaker 7: The US at this point is saying that it definitely

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Speaker 7: believes Wagner Group leader GeV Genny Brigoshen was on board

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Speaker 7: the plane that crashed Ian Russia. Pentagon spokesman Brigadier General

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Speaker 7: Patrick Ryder here.

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Speaker 9: Our initial assessment, based on a variety of factors, is

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Speaker 9: that he was likely killed.

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Speaker 7: But says the reports of surface to air missile bringing

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Speaker 7: it down appear to be false.

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Speaker 9: We don't have any information to indicate right now. The

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Speaker 9: press reporting stating that there was some type of surface

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Speaker 9: to air missile that took down the plane, that we

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Speaker 9: assess that information to be inaccurate.

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Speaker 7: And says though this definitely weakens the Wagner Group.

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Speaker 9: For all intents and purposes, their combat effectiveness has been

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Speaker 9: diminished and they are no longer a significant factor when

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Speaker 9: it comes to the conflict inside Ukraine.

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Speaker 7: Russian President of Vladimir Putin is praised Progosion for the

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Speaker 7: work that he did in Ukraine and has sent his condolences.

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Speaker 7: Nikki Haley is really honing in on her message about inflation,

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Speaker 7: the one that she delivered last night at the GOP

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Speaker 7: debate and then again today on Bloomberg. Haley says it's

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Speaker 7: all of government's task to solve. She floats the idea

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Speaker 7: of a raising retirement age.

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Speaker 10: Even Social Security is going to go bankrupt in ten years,

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Speaker 10: Medicare is going to go bankrupt in eight. So the

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Speaker 10: way we deal with it is we don't touch anyone's

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Speaker 10: retirement or anyone who's been promised in But we go

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Speaker 10: to people like my kids in their twenties when they're

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Speaker 10: coming into the system and we say the rules have changed.

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Speaker 10: We change retirement age to reflect life expectancy instead of

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Speaker 10: cost of living increases. We do it based on inflation, and.

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Speaker 7: Hayley refused to be pinned down after questioning by Joe

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Speaker 7: Matthew here on Bloomberg, says the age needs to be

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Speaker 7: studied and China's unexpected decision to end COVID zero quickly

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Speaker 7: in twenty twenty two led to one point nine million

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Speaker 7: excess deaths in about two months. That as an estimate

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Speaker 7: from a paper published in the journal JAMA Network Open

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Speaker 7: Global News powered by more than twenty seven hundred journalists

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Speaker 7: and analysts in over one hundred twenty countries. In San Francisco,

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Speaker 7: I'm Ed Baxter, and this is Bloomberg.

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Speaker 3: Let's get to our guest. Ryan Blinger is with us.

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Speaker 3: He is managing principal also the founder at Claro Advisors.

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Speaker 3: He joins us from Boston. Ryan, thanks for being with us.

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Speaker 3: We're waiting for the speech tomorrow from Fed shar J. Powell.

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Speaker 3: What do you think we're going to hear?

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Speaker 11: Yeah, it nice to be with you. You know, I

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Speaker 11: don't suspect we're going to hear any type of victory

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Speaker 11: lap language.

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Speaker 5: You know.

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Speaker 11: Chair Pole has been very you know, structured with his words.

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Speaker 11: He knows the power of which what he says, and

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Speaker 11: and I think he's going to be reserved. You know,

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Speaker 11: I think he's gonna he respects inflation, and I think

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Speaker 11: that's really paramount to ultimately being victorious, you know, over

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Speaker 11: inflation and that's really the main difference between him and

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Speaker 11: our leadership in the nineteen seventies that really struggle to

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Speaker 11: to get rid of inflation, and and we you know,

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Speaker 11: probably all remember what was going on in that decade,

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Speaker 11: and I don't think he wants to repeat that mistake.

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Speaker 11: So my sense he's going to be cautious with his tone,

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Speaker 11: you know. And and you know, we have a lot

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Speaker 11: of data coming out that'll influence their next policy meetings,

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Speaker 11: So I think he really still needs to to tow

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Speaker 11: the line here a little bit. And my feeling is

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Speaker 11: we will hear kind of more of the same, you know,

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Speaker 11: unsure about the next rate hike, but probably one more

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Speaker 11: is my guess, and we'll have to see what the

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Speaker 11: data looks like.

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Speaker 2: A Holekish pause is how many people are putting in.

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Speaker 2: Doug and I have been talking about this as well,

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Speaker 2: which is that you know, very little ever said about

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Speaker 2: China's economy. But if there are references to the slow

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Speaker 2: down there and perhaps the transmission or should I say,

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Speaker 2: the disinflationary impulses which are being transmitted, would that be

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Speaker 2: seen as being dubbish?

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Speaker 11: I mean it could be, but ultimately the you know,

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Speaker 11: I just think that the labor market here is just

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Speaker 11: which is way too tight. I mean we're still adding

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Speaker 11: jobs at what was the last reading one hundred and

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Speaker 11: eighty eight thousand, around that number. I mean, if you

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Speaker 11: want to hit the target level that they're talking about,

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Speaker 11: I believe that the number of jobs created in a

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Speaker 11: monthly basis needs to be you know, a third of that,

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Speaker 11: and so I just I think that the labor market's

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Speaker 11: too tight and the economies are still doing too well.

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Speaker 11: The consumers really held up here, and I think that's

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Speaker 11: been the most surprising thing. Now, will the the what's

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Speaker 11: happening in China, you know, bleed into the domestic companies. Sure,

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Speaker 11: I mean demand's going to be going down, and you

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Speaker 11: know we've seen that with with some of the retailers

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Speaker 11: that have come out lately. But I just think it's

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Speaker 11: going to be the recession.

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Speaker 5: You know.

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Speaker 11: I already thought we would have seen it already, and

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Speaker 11: it hasn't happened yet. I think it's that doesn't mean

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Speaker 11: it's not coming. I think it's very difficult to not

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Speaker 11: have a recession. If you look back at history, when

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Speaker 11: the two year and ten year invert for more than

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Speaker 11: two months, a recession happens within fifteen within eighteen months,

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Speaker 11: and so when did that invert last summer? And so

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Speaker 11: now we're talking about, you know, kind of any day

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Speaker 11: now for this recession, I think you know, now is

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Speaker 11: when investors really want to be cautious about putting new

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Speaker 11: capital into the stock market, because this is when really

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Speaker 11: people could get you know, could get themselves in trouble.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, let's talk a little bit about the equity market.

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Speaker 3: But I just want to point out, as long as

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Speaker 3: you're talking about yield curve in version, that mortgage rates

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Speaker 3: now are at the highest level since May two thousand

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Speaker 3: and one. So to the point I think you're making

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Speaker 3: about the extent to which higher rates will begin to

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Speaker 3: slow the economy quite dramatically. I think we're already seeing

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Speaker 3: signs of that in the housing market. But talk to

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Speaker 3: me about the equity market post in Vidia results. Is

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Speaker 3: this something that is at a critical juncture right now?

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Speaker 3: Do you think?

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Speaker 5: No?

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Speaker 11: I think it really is more of a it's more

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Speaker 11: the same. It's the stronger getting stronger, and everyone else

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Speaker 11: is idling by. I mean, you know, we've all seen

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Speaker 11: the statistics that you know, the top six or eight

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Speaker 11: stocks are making up you know, ninety five percent of

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Speaker 11: the performance of the index this year, and in market

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Speaker 11: cap is well over seventy eighty percent. That's just those

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Speaker 11: are historic numbers. So in Vidia, you know, if you've

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Speaker 11: owned in Vidia, you're having a great year.

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Speaker 10: Now.

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Speaker 11: It's probably a crowded trade, but you know, that would

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Speaker 11: be just hard to know with the blowout earnings that

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Speaker 11: they continue. I think they've got three consecutive raised forecast,

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Speaker 11: which is really, you know, outstanding. So if you've owned

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Speaker 11: those particular stocks, you've done well. But everyone else is

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Speaker 11: just kind of idling along here and trying to keep

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Speaker 11: market share. And so I just think for investors, you

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Speaker 11: just have to know exactly what you own in your portfolios.

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Speaker 11: I think inherently people are just taking way too much

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Speaker 11: risk right now. They've probably had their head in the

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Speaker 11: sand for the last couple of years through COVID, and

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Speaker 11: the market's just had a really good ten year run.

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Speaker 11: So if you haven't rebalanced your accounts, then you probably

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Speaker 11: don't understand that you can get five and a half

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Speaker 11: percent and a money market right now. And you know,

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Speaker 11: that's a nice alternative to some equity risk that's out there,

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Speaker 11: and so that's what we're telling our clients just to

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Speaker 11: rebalance the accounts.

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Speaker 2: Absolutely right. So you know we're a level perhaps and

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Speaker 2: paps are getting to even a more crucial here. Whether

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Speaker 2: we see really a big outflow from equities into bonds

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Speaker 2: because of security.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think that's it.

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Speaker 11: I mean people have really finally woken up. I mean, say, look,

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Speaker 11: I get money not only in the stock market, but

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Speaker 11: if I have money sitting at a bank earning you know,

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Speaker 11: a few basis points, why wouldn't I be putting it

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Speaker 11: into some investment great bonds or municipal bonds or even

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Speaker 11: that money market I mentioned, and you know, actually get

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Speaker 11: some yield. I mean, finally savers can earn something. You know,

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Speaker 11: for a decade, the poor savers couldn't earn any money,

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Speaker 11: so they were forced into the stock market.

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