WEBVTT - Early Look at Week 2 NFL Lines (Ep. 102) 0:00:14.400 --> 0:00:18.160 Hey everybody, Welcome back to the Betting Pros Podcast, brought 0:00:18.160 --> 0:00:20.720 to you by bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harris. 0:00:20.720 --> 0:00:22.560 Find me on Twitter at Dan Harris. Eighty. 0:00:22.600 --> 0:00:24.360 Week one is almost in the books. 0:00:24.360 --> 0:00:26.840 We still have one game left tonight, but it is 0:00:26.880 --> 0:00:29.600 already time to start looking ahead at the lines for 0:00:29.760 --> 0:00:32.000 week two to find out if there is any value, 0:00:32.080 --> 0:00:34.559 if we expect any movement, all that good stuff. To 0:00:34.640 --> 0:00:37.600 do that with me is Ian McMillan from bet Sided. 0:00:37.640 --> 0:00:41.760 He's on Twitter at Ian mac betts. And that's Ai 0:00:41.840 --> 0:00:43.239 and Ian. Thank you for joining me. 0:00:43.280 --> 0:00:43.800 How you doing. 0:00:44.159 --> 0:00:45.720 I'm doing well, man, Thanks for having me. 0:00:46.080 --> 0:00:47.520 Did you have a good beat on week one? 0:00:47.560 --> 0:00:49.839 Because I felt like there were some games that I 0:00:49.880 --> 0:00:52.479 saw really clearly in others I was just way off on. 0:00:52.960 --> 0:00:56.160 I did very well in Week one. I went twelve 0:00:56.240 --> 0:00:58.480 and three. I bet on every single game. I had 0:00:58.480 --> 0:01:00.440 two hundred and seventy two games this year. I'm betting 0:01:00.440 --> 0:01:02.360 on every single one. I did the same thing last season, 0:01:02.720 --> 0:01:05.160 and I'm on pace now to have easily my best 0:01:05.160 --> 0:01:07.400 week I've ever had, so twelve and three heading into 0:01:07.440 --> 0:01:10.360 Monday night football, so I've been lucky. 0:01:10.880 --> 0:01:12.399 How did all right? First of all, for the record. 0:01:12.440 --> 0:01:13.199 Who do you have tonight? 0:01:13.920 --> 0:01:15.240 I got the Raiders to cover tonight? 0:01:15.760 --> 0:01:17.520 Okay, is it four or four and a half when 0:01:17.520 --> 0:01:17.880 you had it? 0:01:18.160 --> 0:01:19.119 I think I have it at four. 0:01:19.600 --> 0:01:21.880 Okay. How did you do last year in the content? 0:01:21.880 --> 0:01:23.200 In your betting every game? 0:01:24.200 --> 0:01:26.880 I finished profitable, which is my goal because obviously, if 0:01:26.880 --> 0:01:29.360 you're betting on every single game for an entire NFL season, 0:01:29.880 --> 0:01:31.200 then that was kind of my goal was just to 0:01:31.240 --> 0:01:33.320 kind of finish in the black. So I don't remember 0:01:33.319 --> 0:01:35.959 my exact record, but I finished around up five and 0:01:35.959 --> 0:01:39.520 a half units. I think it was all spreads and totals, 0:01:39.560 --> 0:01:41.319 and then once a week I do one money line 0:01:41.360 --> 0:01:42.600 underdog a week as well. 0:01:42.680 --> 0:01:45.240 So I love it all right, well, well done, well good. 0:01:45.280 --> 0:01:48.000 Then let's provide value to the people listening here before 0:01:48.040 --> 0:01:49.800 we get into it. First, I can tell you about 0:01:49.800 --> 0:01:52.440 an offer that we have from bet MGM for new customers. 0:01:52.680 --> 0:01:55.680 Do you bet ten dollars on any event that you want, 0:01:55.800 --> 0:01:59.240 you automatically win one hundred and fifty dollars in free 0:01:59.320 --> 0:02:03.400 bets when you use the code Juice one hundred. We 0:02:03.440 --> 0:02:05.800 have a podcast here at bettingpros dot com called The 0:02:05.840 --> 0:02:08.760 Daily Juice. That's where the juice comes from. Again, the 0:02:08.800 --> 0:02:12.160 code is juice one hundred, so that's free money. 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You want three times the entries, Just 0:02:42.560 --> 0:02:44.960 be a subscriber to a hour YouTube channel YouTube dot 0:02:45.000 --> 0:02:47.440 com slash Betting Pros. We do a lot of good 0:02:47.480 --> 0:02:49.200 stuff over there. We put a lot of stuff on video. 0:02:49.240 --> 0:02:51.520 We also have a live stream from eleven am to 0:02:51.560 --> 0:02:54.480 twelve pm on Sunday mornings Eastern where we break down 0:02:54.520 --> 0:02:56.760 the entire slate and I give out my player prompts. 0:02:57.080 --> 0:03:00.240 All right, Ian, better of every NFL game? Are you 0:03:00.280 --> 0:03:02.400 ready for an early look at Week two? 0:03:02.520 --> 0:03:02.920 Lines. 0:03:03.040 --> 0:03:05.000 Absolutely very exciting. Let's get into it. 0:03:05.160 --> 0:03:06.480 I'm so excited. I love it. 0:03:06.600 --> 0:03:08.560 Okay, So I'm going to be using the consensus lines 0:03:08.600 --> 0:03:11.120 over at bettingpros dot com that looks at a bunch 0:03:11.160 --> 0:03:14.240 of different books, but obviously we will look around and 0:03:14.360 --> 0:03:17.280 see whether or not any individual book is offering anything 0:03:17.320 --> 0:03:19.760 that might be a little more favorable or anything like that. 0:03:19.760 --> 0:03:21.560 So let's start with the Thursday night game, and that 0:03:21.680 --> 0:03:25.120 is the Giants of visiting Washington and taking on the 0:03:25.160 --> 0:03:28.080 Washington football team. Consensus line right now Betting Pros is 0:03:28.280 --> 0:03:30.839 Washington laying three and a half points and the over 0:03:30.960 --> 0:03:34.360 under a minuscule forty one points. 0:03:34.360 --> 0:03:35.280 How do you see this game? 0:03:36.000 --> 0:03:38.080 I mean, we're starting off right in Week two with 0:03:38.160 --> 0:03:41.160 just a classic Thursday night football game between two teams 0:03:41.200 --> 0:03:44.520 that just stinks. So, I mean that's a pretty low total. 0:03:44.600 --> 0:03:46.600 My initial thought would have been to go with the under, 0:03:46.600 --> 0:03:48.600 but I think I'm going to back the Giants on 0:03:48.640 --> 0:03:51.040 this one. I think they had kind of a bad 0:03:51.120 --> 0:03:53.480 showing in Week one. Now Washington that was actually on Washington. 0:03:53.520 --> 0:03:55.160 That was one of the few picks I lost last week. 0:03:55.200 --> 0:03:56.920 So maybe I'm just a little bit of an anti 0:03:57.040 --> 0:03:58.840 Washington buyas. I'm a little mad at them a little bit, 0:03:58.880 --> 0:04:02.480 but I think the Giants are better than what they 0:04:02.520 --> 0:04:04.360 showed in Week one. My issue with the Giants is 0:04:04.360 --> 0:04:06.160 they just don't have an offensive line. I hate that 0:04:06.280 --> 0:04:08.200 these teams that go up and pick up all these 0:04:08.240 --> 0:04:11.320 like wide receivers and these finesse positions and don't build 0:04:11.320 --> 0:04:14.240 the offensive line. So their offensive line is probably gonna 0:04:14.280 --> 0:04:18.400 have issues against his Washington defensive line. But I don't know, man, 0:04:18.440 --> 0:04:21.440 I'm trying not to overreact to Week one results where 0:04:21.480 --> 0:04:23.560 the Giants looked really bad. I think that's what week 0:04:23.560 --> 0:04:26.040 two is really all about, trying not to overreact to 0:04:26.120 --> 0:04:28.400 week one results. So I'm probably gonna take a lot 0:04:28.400 --> 0:04:30.240 of underdogs in week two. So I'm gonna start off 0:04:30.240 --> 0:04:31.400 with the Giants on Thursday night. 0:04:31.720 --> 0:04:32.599 Yeah, it's really tough. 0:04:32.640 --> 0:04:34.599 Out of curiosity, do you what do you think the 0:04:34.640 --> 0:04:37.479 impact is of the fact that Ryan Fitzpatrick obviously suffered 0:04:37.480 --> 0:04:40.240 that hip this location, he's out, it's gonna be Taylor Heineke. 0:04:40.400 --> 0:04:42.599 Do you think that helps the over helps the under or. 0:04:42.600 --> 0:04:44.960 What I mean, it certainly has to help the under 0:04:45.000 --> 0:04:47.159 I mean, if there's one thing about Fitzpatrick that he 0:04:47.200 --> 0:04:49.560 can do, and that's that's throw touchdowns. Now, sometimes he 0:04:49.839 --> 0:04:52.240 throwze five interceptions to the five touchdowns, but usually those 0:04:52.240 --> 0:04:54.320 interceptions then turn into points for the other team, which 0:04:54.320 --> 0:04:56.760 then helped the over as well. So I mean, I 0:04:56.760 --> 0:04:59.760 would guess this total would be would be significantly higher, 0:04:59.760 --> 0:05:02.240 probably five or six points higher if Fitzpatrick was playing out. 0:05:02.360 --> 0:05:04.440 You think it may it moved that much. 0:05:04.520 --> 0:05:06.560 See, and this is actually I wish I could have 0:05:06.640 --> 0:05:08.840 checked it out before we recorded. I actually don't know 0:05:09.200 --> 0:05:10.800 if it moved. Do you ever do you take out 0:05:10.839 --> 0:05:12.599 like a look aheadline or when you make your bets 0:05:12.600 --> 0:05:14.520 on every game? Do you wait until basically you have 0:05:14.560 --> 0:05:15.680 all the information possible. 0:05:16.520 --> 0:05:19.320 Yeah, well, I place my bets because so I record 0:05:19.360 --> 0:05:22.120 my podcast, the Bacon Bets Podcast Wednesday night. So right 0:05:22.160 --> 0:05:24.440 before I record, that's when I lock in my bettcha 0:05:24.600 --> 0:05:26.679 because that I know, I'm kind of at the mercy 0:05:26.720 --> 0:05:28.720 of those Wednesday Night lines, So I do. I try 0:05:28.720 --> 0:05:31.080 not to look too far ahead, but I did not 0:05:31.160 --> 0:05:34.640 see what the total was on the look aheadlines. Would 0:05:34.680 --> 0:05:34.880 have been. 0:05:34.839 --> 0:05:38.640 Interesting though, right, And again, realistically that's that's not a 0:05:38.720 --> 0:05:41.320 huge deal necessarily because I don't really finalize it until 0:05:41.440 --> 0:05:44.240 obviously the end of the previous week. But interesting because 0:05:44.240 --> 0:05:46.760 I don't I don't I get that fits helps it 0:05:46.839 --> 0:05:49.080 leans towards the over, But I think that big a move. 0:05:49.120 --> 0:05:51.120 That'd be a pretty big move. Heine gets very capable. 0:05:51.360 --> 0:05:53.040 I think for me, I see it sort of the 0:05:53.080 --> 0:05:54.719 way you do. I mean the under obviously hitting the 0:05:54.720 --> 0:05:58.360 Broncos in the Broncos Giants game, but I don't really 0:05:58.360 --> 0:06:01.720 think I could go anywhere near the total in this game. 0:06:01.720 --> 0:06:04.159 But with the spread, if you're giving me the hook 0:06:04.640 --> 0:06:07.400 with the extra five, you know, half a point, I'm. 0:06:07.279 --> 0:06:07.919 Probably taking it. 0:06:07.920 --> 0:06:09.800 There are threes out there, by the way I FanDuel, 0:06:09.839 --> 0:06:11.720 there's threes so that I don't really like. But if 0:06:11.760 --> 0:06:13.919 you give me the hook, I probably will go there. 0:06:14.120 --> 0:06:18.599 How about the absolutely dominant Houston Texans going to Cleveland 0:06:18.640 --> 0:06:20.719 to take on the Browns. The Browns are laying a 0:06:20.839 --> 0:06:23.039 minuscule twelve and a half points. 0:06:23.400 --> 0:06:26.080 The over under is forty eight. What do you think? 0:06:27.040 --> 0:06:30.359 This one's tough? Man, These big Week two spreads and 0:06:31.000 --> 0:06:33.000 my biggest issue, and I'm probably gonna go with the 0:06:33.000 --> 0:06:35.320 Browns here. I haven't finalized it yet, even though it's 0:06:35.320 --> 0:06:37.839 a big spread and my big thing is the Texans 0:06:37.920 --> 0:06:41.040 run defense last year one of the worst run defense. 0:06:41.080 --> 0:06:42.520 I think it might have been the worst. I think 0:06:42.520 --> 0:06:44.560 them in the Bengals were the two worst run defenses 0:06:44.560 --> 0:06:46.520 in the NFL last year. And then we obviously know 0:06:46.600 --> 0:06:49.320 that's exactly what the Cleveland Browns do really well is 0:06:49.360 --> 0:06:50.960 just pound the rock. I think the Browns are the 0:06:50.960 --> 0:06:53.359 best offensive line in the NFL. I think Nick Chubb 0:06:53.960 --> 0:06:56.039 might be the best running back in the NFL. I 0:06:56.040 --> 0:06:57.600 would say he is. I would go on the limb 0:06:57.640 --> 0:06:58.880 and say Nick Chubb is. I know a lot of 0:06:58.880 --> 0:07:02.120 people would always say Derrick Henry Christian McCaffrey. I love 0:07:02.240 --> 0:07:04.200 Nick Chubb. I think he's gonna have a big year. 0:07:04.960 --> 0:07:07.599 Big spread though, man, and I hate taking double digit 0:07:07.640 --> 0:07:10.360 favorites in the NFL, but and there's a couple of 0:07:10.400 --> 0:07:12.600 them this week, I might have to, So right now 0:07:12.600 --> 0:07:15.920 I'm gonna lean Browns. But it's this one's tough, man, 0:07:16.000 --> 0:07:18.040 This one's tough because the thing about the Texans they 0:07:18.040 --> 0:07:20.920 have veterans, they have guys who kind of know the sport. 0:07:21.040 --> 0:07:23.160 It's not a young team, which isn't good for them 0:07:23.200 --> 0:07:25.160 long term. But they're gonna be able to win a 0:07:25.200 --> 0:07:26.720 couple of games this year. I think because of that 0:07:26.840 --> 0:07:29.520 veteran presence on that team, so tough one. I'm gonna 0:07:29.520 --> 0:07:29.800 take the. 0:07:29.720 --> 0:07:31.160 Browns well Tarat Taylor. 0:07:31.200 --> 0:07:34.320 I mean, he's a professional quarterback, right, He's going to 0:07:34.400 --> 0:07:36.960 keep them stther than there. Let me ask you something, man, 0:07:37.000 --> 0:07:41.320 Am I crazy or I don't remember? Up until three 0:07:41.400 --> 0:07:45.320 years ago, maybe seeing just these giant line I mean, 0:07:45.360 --> 0:07:47.160 twelve and a half's not insane, like not like when 0:07:47.160 --> 0:07:49.400 we're getting like the seventeen or eighteen point lines right 0:07:49.400 --> 0:07:51.760 with like the Patriots stuff. But to see these lines 0:07:52.440 --> 0:07:55.520 just routinely, like in the double digits all the day long, 0:07:55.600 --> 0:07:55.880 is it me? 0:07:56.000 --> 0:07:58.080 Or do we see that way more frequently these days? 0:07:58.360 --> 0:07:59.840 Yeah? I think we are. I mean they're starting to 0:07:59.880 --> 0:08:03.800 us look like college football lines a little, right, But yeah, 0:08:03.840 --> 0:08:05.240 I think we are. I don't know if it's just 0:08:05.320 --> 0:08:08.040 actually disparity in kind of talent, or if it's just 0:08:08.080 --> 0:08:10.800 because the public is getting so much more involved in 0:08:10.840 --> 0:08:12.720 sports betting, and I think that might have something to 0:08:12.720 --> 0:08:15.880 do with it that. Obviously, the public betters are usually 0:08:15.920 --> 0:08:18.400 a little bit square, so when it's a big mismatch, 0:08:18.480 --> 0:08:20.720 they just assume that the better team is gonna win 0:08:20.760 --> 0:08:22.920 by a ton of points. But not necessarily the case. 0:08:22.920 --> 0:08:25.120 I mean, look at this Kansas City Chiefs last season, 0:08:25.920 --> 0:08:28.040 big favorites in almost every single game. A lot of 0:08:28.080 --> 0:08:30.040 them were like double digit close to double jit digit. 0:08:30.120 --> 0:08:32.480 In the regular season. They finished seven to nine against 0:08:32.520 --> 0:08:35.640 the spread. So even though there's mismatches, doesn't mean the 0:08:35.640 --> 0:08:36.680 team's gonna win by a lot. 0:08:37.080 --> 0:08:39.160 Yeah, Mike, with the last game, I don't really see 0:08:39.160 --> 0:08:41.040 like a ton of value here that I'm dying to 0:08:41.120 --> 0:08:43.160 lock in a line or anything before we move later 0:08:43.160 --> 0:08:43.560 in the week. 0:08:44.040 --> 0:08:45.439 This is there just tough. 0:08:45.520 --> 0:08:48.800 Honestly, Let's go to the Patriots visiting the Jets. Patriots 0:08:48.840 --> 0:08:51.440 are favored by five and a half points and the 0:08:51.480 --> 0:08:53.719 total is forty two and a half. 0:08:53.800 --> 0:08:56.000 What do you think, Oh, I think I got to 0:08:56.040 --> 0:08:58.200 go with the under on that one. I was on 0:08:58.240 --> 0:09:01.680 the under and the Jets Panthers game this past week, 0:09:01.720 --> 0:09:03.880 I just don't. I mean, I don't really believe in 0:09:03.920 --> 0:09:06.680 anything of the Jets offense. The other game I was 0:09:06.679 --> 0:09:09.560 on the under as well was the Patriots, and the 0:09:09.559 --> 0:09:11.800 Patriots and Dolphins last week, both those under his cash 0:09:11.880 --> 0:09:14.320 as well. I think both teams do have slightly better 0:09:14.360 --> 0:09:17.360 defenses than offenses, especially the case with the Patriots. I 0:09:17.400 --> 0:09:19.520 just don't think they have quite enough offense weapons to 0:09:19.520 --> 0:09:22.920 put up a ton of points. I'm surprised. I'm actually 0:09:22.960 --> 0:09:25.280 surprised this total is not in the thirties, like thirty 0:09:25.320 --> 0:09:27.360 eight to thirty nine. So I think you said it 0:09:27.400 --> 0:09:29.400 was forty two and a half. I'm probably gonna end 0:09:29.480 --> 0:09:30.560 up taking the under it no one. 0:09:30.600 --> 0:09:32.360 What's funny is there are books out there at forty 0:09:32.360 --> 0:09:33.679 three and a half. Forty two and a half is 0:09:33.720 --> 0:09:36.240 the consensus line. But you know, I'm in agreement with you. 0:09:36.520 --> 0:09:38.200 I mean, I think the bottom line is that the 0:09:38.240 --> 0:09:41.920 Jets have a significant weakness in their defense, and it 0:09:42.120 --> 0:09:45.640 is the secondary. But that's not really necessarily what the 0:09:45.679 --> 0:09:48.280 Patriots are built to exploit, right, I mean, you're gonna 0:09:48.280 --> 0:09:50.599 have Nelson Agalo or you're gonna have Jacobe Myers, but 0:09:50.600 --> 0:09:52.200 they're not the type of guys who are really just 0:09:52.240 --> 0:09:54.439 gonna destroy you who you can pick on them. They 0:09:54.480 --> 0:09:56.599 are gonna want to play conservative, They're gonna want to 0:09:56.679 --> 0:09:57.440 lean on their defense. 0:09:57.600 --> 0:09:58.600 And we saw the Jets. 0:09:59.400 --> 0:10:01.840 Zach Wilson hung in there and played pretty well in 0:10:01.840 --> 0:10:04.520 the second half, but their offensive line is decimated. Makai 0:10:04.600 --> 0:10:07.600 Becktin's now out for several weeks. I'm with you. I'm 0:10:07.640 --> 0:10:08.959 with you if you can get a forty three and 0:10:08.960 --> 0:10:11.240 a half, Like there are randomly kind of sitting out 0:10:11.240 --> 0:10:13.160 there and it's forty three at Fox Bed and at 0:10:13.200 --> 0:10:15.199 points bet it's forty three. I agree with you. I 0:10:15.240 --> 0:10:17.160 would lock that in because I do not expect it 0:10:17.480 --> 0:10:20.280 to necessarily move down. Now, this one's a little tough 0:10:20.320 --> 0:10:22.319 because we have not seen the Raiders play. But the 0:10:22.360 --> 0:10:25.080 Steelers right now are home and they are laying six 0:10:25.080 --> 0:10:28.160 and a half to the Raiders, and the total is 0:10:28.400 --> 0:10:30.640 not a big deal. I totally messed up my sheet 0:10:30.720 --> 0:10:32.400 right now. But start with the spread. I'll get you 0:10:32.440 --> 0:10:34.600 the total in the second six and a half? Did 0:10:34.600 --> 0:10:37.559 I say six and a half? Sorry, Steelers at home 0:10:37.559 --> 0:10:38.440 against the Raiders. 0:10:38.720 --> 0:10:38.920 Yeah. 0:10:38.960 --> 0:10:41.320 I think I would probably back the Raiders, just like 0:10:41.360 --> 0:10:43.440 am tonight. I mean, I think the thing with the 0:10:43.520 --> 0:10:47.080 Raiders is just people think they're worse than what they 0:10:47.120 --> 0:10:49.120 are they're actually I don't think they're that bad of 0:10:49.160 --> 0:10:51.800 a team really, especially their offense. They were like something 0:10:51.840 --> 0:10:54.480 like sixth or seventh in offensive yards per game last season, 0:10:55.040 --> 0:10:57.839 around the same and third down conversion percentage, which I 0:10:58.240 --> 0:11:01.320 value quite a bit when handicapping my dame. Their defense 0:11:01.400 --> 0:11:05.800 is obviously horrific, but I think the Steelers offense is horrific. 0:11:05.920 --> 0:11:08.400 So if the Steelers are getting that many or the 0:11:08.520 --> 0:11:10.200 sort of the Raiders are getting that many points, I'm 0:11:10.240 --> 0:11:13.440 gonna definitely back them on the spread consist year. Obviously, 0:11:13.480 --> 0:11:17.520 the Steelers defense is arguably the top unit in the NFL, 0:11:17.640 --> 0:11:19.679 but I don't think the Raiders are as bad as 0:11:19.679 --> 0:11:21.800 a lot of people think. Now, if someone's watching this 0:11:21.920 --> 0:11:24.079 after Monday night, I might look stupid because who knows 0:11:24.080 --> 0:11:26.040 what's gonna happen in this game. So in my defense, 0:11:26.120 --> 0:11:28.280 we haven't seen the Raiders yet this season, but I 0:11:28.920 --> 0:11:31.240 think they're better than They're not a great team. They're 0:11:31.240 --> 0:11:32.440 not a good team, but I think they're better than 0:11:32.480 --> 0:11:34.040 what a lot of people give them credit for. 0:11:34.320 --> 0:11:36.280 I'm coming with you on the stupid train, then, because 0:11:36.320 --> 0:11:38.280 I agree with you, I really do. I think the 0:11:38.360 --> 0:11:41.840 Raiders offensive line is subpar, but other than that. 0:11:41.800 --> 0:11:43.800 It's a pretty decent team. 0:11:43.840 --> 0:11:46.520 I mean, Derek Carr is kind of quietly a pretty 0:11:47.000 --> 0:11:50.280 okay decent quarterback in the league. Darren Efficient, thank you 0:11:50.360 --> 0:11:53.280 very much. That's a nice way to put it. Darren 0:11:53.280 --> 0:11:56.199 Waller is a superstar. Obviously, they have the two running 0:11:56.200 --> 0:11:58.800 backs with Josh Jacobs, who again as we record this 0:11:58.880 --> 0:12:00.760 has an illness sounds like you will play tonight, but 0:12:00.800 --> 0:12:03.520 also Kenyan Drake. The receivers are young but emerging with 0:12:03.600 --> 0:12:05.160 Rugs and Brian Edwards. 0:12:05.200 --> 0:12:06.960 So that's there. But you're right, the real thing is 0:12:06.960 --> 0:12:08.080 the Steelers. I mean, their. 0:12:07.960 --> 0:12:10.840 Offensive line looked abismo, as we kind of expected coming 0:12:10.840 --> 0:12:13.319 into that game against the Bills. They really struggle to 0:12:13.400 --> 0:12:16.480 kind of have a cohesive offensive philosophy. So I agree, 0:12:16.480 --> 0:12:18.520 if you're getting that points, what about the total, which 0:12:18.559 --> 0:12:20.559 I have finally found, Ian, don't worry. 0:12:21.240 --> 0:12:22.920 The consentus line is actually forty eight. 0:12:22.920 --> 0:12:25.240 But when I'm looking at the various books, you've got 0:12:25.320 --> 0:12:27.920 mostly a big disparity here, more than I usually see 0:12:28.040 --> 0:12:30.520 bet MGM for example, it's forty seven and a half. 0:12:30.720 --> 0:12:33.440 Fandele it's forty nine and a half. So like the 0:12:33.480 --> 0:12:35.760 consensus is forty eight in between. So do you think 0:12:35.760 --> 0:12:37.520 there's if you're like, let's say you have access to 0:12:37.559 --> 0:12:39.400 one of those books, do you find one of those 0:12:39.640 --> 0:12:40.680 enticing one way or another? 0:12:40.840 --> 0:12:43.280 Yeah, I'd be taking the under for sure. If it's 0:12:43.280 --> 0:12:45.000 going to be in the high forties. I mean, like 0:12:45.040 --> 0:12:46.840 I kind of said the ste I mean, the Steelers 0:12:46.880 --> 0:12:49.719 just stop the Buffalo Bills offense, which we think is 0:12:49.760 --> 0:12:52.920 still one of the best offenses in the NFL. And 0:12:52.960 --> 0:12:55.800 then you got the Steelers offense which can't move the 0:12:55.800 --> 0:12:58.280 ball at all. I mean they needed a block punt 0:12:58.280 --> 0:13:02.199 for a touchdown to win that game. So yeah, I mean, 0:13:02.240 --> 0:13:04.280 I'm some shocked. As in the high forties, I'd be 0:13:04.280 --> 0:13:05.400 taking the under in that for sure. 0:13:05.840 --> 0:13:07.640 I agree with you, and I think this is something 0:13:07.640 --> 0:13:09.440 where you probably want to lock it in out, especially 0:13:09.480 --> 0:13:10.760 if you're like, look, I'm in New Hampshire. 0:13:10.800 --> 0:13:12.520 The only book we have access to his DraftKings, it's 0:13:12.559 --> 0:13:13.280 at forty nine. 0:13:13.320 --> 0:13:15.640 I will be locking it in ordinarily, just because I 0:13:15.679 --> 0:13:17.080 respect you so much, and I'm not going to do 0:13:17.080 --> 0:13:20.120 it while we're podcasting right now, but ordinarily for guests 0:13:20.120 --> 0:13:22.200 that I think lesser of, I would do it actually 0:13:22.280 --> 0:13:24.080 right now, but I want, all right, let's go to 0:13:24.200 --> 0:13:28.760 the Bengals visiting the Bears. The Bears here are laying 0:13:28.840 --> 0:13:31.240 three points in our consensus line, and the over under 0:13:31.400 --> 0:13:32.560 is forty five. 0:13:32.600 --> 0:13:36.760 Any value in either of those numbers, that's tough. 0:13:36.800 --> 0:13:38.960 I think I think that line set right. I mean, 0:13:39.120 --> 0:13:42.880 I'm kind of a Bears hater, to be honest. I 0:13:43.240 --> 0:13:45.920 veta against them quite often last season, especially right after 0:13:45.960 --> 0:13:47.680 they got off of that like five and one start 0:13:47.760 --> 0:13:49.760 or whatever it was. So I think I would have 0:13:49.800 --> 0:13:51.600 to back the Bengals here. Also, I was impressed by 0:13:51.600 --> 0:13:53.040 what I saw from the Bengals in Week one. That 0:13:53.120 --> 0:13:54.680 was one of the bets that I lost. I was 0:13:54.720 --> 0:13:56.640 on the Vikings. I thought the Vikings were going to 0:13:56.720 --> 0:13:59.320 run away with that. I was nervous for Joe Burrow 0:13:59.360 --> 0:14:01.640 coming off that the knee injury because there were some 0:14:01.679 --> 0:14:04.200 reports that he wasn't quite feeling comfortable in training camp. 0:14:04.280 --> 0:14:07.000 But he looked great. He you know, faced the pressure. 0:14:07.040 --> 0:14:09.760 He threw a lot of great footballs. I think I'm 0:14:09.760 --> 0:14:11.679 going to back the Bengals in that one. But that 0:14:11.760 --> 0:14:14.600 line seems just about right. That one. That one's that 0:14:14.640 --> 0:14:16.160 one's gonna be one. I'm gonna have to dive into 0:14:16.200 --> 0:14:18.440 a little bit more. But kind of when you're I mean, 0:14:18.440 --> 0:14:20.200 when you're betting on every single NFL game, you're not 0:14:20.240 --> 0:14:21.640 gonna have a strong feel one or the. 0:14:21.640 --> 0:14:25.280 Other and everything. So it's the best. 0:14:25.360 --> 0:14:27.400 I love that you're like, well, I'm gonna I'm gonna 0:14:27.400 --> 0:14:28.960 have to bet this one, so I'll let you know 0:14:29.000 --> 0:14:29.920 how I feel about it. 0:14:30.560 --> 0:14:31.920 For me, I completely agree with you. 0:14:31.960 --> 0:14:34.760 I think both the total and the spread are just 0:14:35.000 --> 0:14:37.160 right there at a point where that you don't want 0:14:37.200 --> 0:14:39.080 to bet this game. You have to because it's in 0:14:39.120 --> 0:14:41.680 your contract. But still I think that it's a game 0:14:41.720 --> 0:14:44.640 that I want to avoid. Although I will say I 0:14:44.680 --> 0:14:47.040 was really impressed with the Bengals and Burrow. You know, 0:14:47.240 --> 0:14:49.520 I'm obviously also a fantasy guy and I do projections. 0:14:49.520 --> 0:14:51.760 I was very nervous about Joe Burrow and what he 0:14:51.760 --> 0:14:54.280 would look like early in the season, for the mental 0:14:54.440 --> 0:14:56.400 part of it, not the physical parts, and like he'd 0:14:56.400 --> 0:14:58.600 fully recovered, but it's very difficult when. 0:14:58.480 --> 0:14:59.160 You have that injury. 0:14:59.160 --> 0:15:01.800 And that's really what you hearing in camp was that 0:15:01.840 --> 0:15:04.080 he was struggling the mental part of it, and he hung. 0:15:04.240 --> 0:15:05.960 I think he was sacked five times. You wouldn't have 0:15:05.960 --> 0:15:07.640 known it. He didn't look jumpy in the pocket. He 0:15:07.760 --> 0:15:10.960 uncorked some great throws, and Jamar Chase another guy missing 0:15:11.000 --> 0:15:12.840 football for a year. Everybody was kind of like, oh no, 0:15:12.880 --> 0:15:15.840 I'm worried. He looked fantastic too, So I'm definitely more 0:15:15.840 --> 0:15:18.440 optimistic on the team overall. At the same time, three 0:15:18.480 --> 0:15:21.200 points right there is the correct spread. The Rams are 0:15:21.240 --> 0:15:24.200 visiting the Colts, the Rams are favored by four, and 0:15:24.240 --> 0:15:27.200 the total is forty seven and a half Rams. 0:15:27.840 --> 0:15:31.240 I already was high on the Rams heading into this season, 0:15:31.240 --> 0:15:33.680 and then they did nothing but make me even more 0:15:33.680 --> 0:15:36.200 confident in them against the Bears there on Sunday night. 0:15:36.520 --> 0:15:39.360 Matthew Stafford looks like, at least through one week, he 0:15:39.360 --> 0:15:42.160 looks like he's living up to people's expectations. The defense 0:15:42.520 --> 0:15:45.040 is still a dominant unit, maybe not quite as good 0:15:45.040 --> 0:15:48.080 as the defense last year. But then the complete opposite 0:15:48.120 --> 0:15:50.240 was the case for the Colts. Curson Wentz didn't impress 0:15:50.240 --> 0:15:56.680 me whatsoever. Colts offense didn't necessarily look great, didn't look explosive. Yeah, 0:15:56.720 --> 0:15:59.520 I'm definitely that's definitely a good spot for the Rams. 0:15:59.560 --> 0:16:01.360 I think where'd you say that game? Was? That? Is 0:16:01.400 --> 0:16:01.760 that in? 0:16:02.000 --> 0:16:04.760 It's in Indianapolis, in Indianapolis. 0:16:04.200 --> 0:16:06.920 Yeah, so obviously otherwise, yeah, you would expect it to 0:16:07.000 --> 0:16:09.160 be yeah, closer to touch on. I agree with you, 0:16:09.240 --> 0:16:10.520 by the way. So I do think the Cults are 0:16:10.520 --> 0:16:11.760 going to play a little bit better here. I mean, 0:16:11.880 --> 0:16:15.160 remember they had such little time to really practice and work. 0:16:15.400 --> 0:16:19.040 But they really have nothing offensively right now. I mean 0:16:19.040 --> 0:16:22.160 the receivers. I like Michael Pittman Jr. I like Zach Paskal. 0:16:22.200 --> 0:16:24.080 They're certainly not going to be able to do anything 0:16:24.400 --> 0:16:27.600 against this this defense here with the cornerbacks, and then 0:16:27.680 --> 0:16:29.600 you just are you know, Jon Taylor is very good, 0:16:29.680 --> 0:16:32.120 but Niam Hines like it's gimmicky a little bit with 0:16:32.160 --> 0:16:33.920 this offense. And I think you're going to get some 0:16:34.000 --> 0:16:37.080 value right near now early on the RAMS. I think 0:16:37.080 --> 0:16:39.640 you had value in week one as well, which I 0:16:39.640 --> 0:16:41.600 think most better saw. That's why you saw the spread 0:16:41.680 --> 0:16:44.480 rise overall. What about the total? Any feelings on it? 0:16:44.480 --> 0:16:49.560 It is forty seven and a half. I would probably 0:16:49.680 --> 0:16:51.000 lean the under on that one. 0:16:51.400 --> 0:16:55.280 Generally in totals, I'm usually an under guy as it 0:16:55.360 --> 0:16:58.320 is because I always feel like the points that the 0:16:58.320 --> 0:17:00.680 totals are point or two higher than they normally would 0:17:00.680 --> 0:17:03.480 because the public loves betting on overs. I mean who 0:17:03.600 --> 0:17:05.440 who the unders not enjoy. 0:17:05.440 --> 0:17:09.280 Whoa something right as anything? 0:17:09.520 --> 0:17:11.360 Not a fun bet to make, So usually that one, 0:17:11.440 --> 0:17:15.200 especially where it's close, I would lean the under. And yeah, 0:17:15.280 --> 0:17:17.720 I don't know. Obviously the RAMS defense is going to 0:17:17.760 --> 0:17:19.199 be one of the best in the unit and one 0:17:19.200 --> 0:17:20.680 of the best units in the NFL. It's gonna be 0:17:20.720 --> 0:17:22.040 hard for me to take an over in a Rams 0:17:22.119 --> 0:17:22.680 game this year. 0:17:22.720 --> 0:17:25.040 But yeah, I'm I agree with you. I agree with 0:17:25.040 --> 0:17:26.639 you for sure, But for me, it's a little bit 0:17:26.640 --> 0:17:28.639 of a stay away just because I don't know. I mean, 0:17:28.680 --> 0:17:30.879 I could see the Colt Stephens is not bad, but 0:17:30.960 --> 0:17:33.840 you saw Russell Wilson, like I could see the Rams 0:17:33.880 --> 0:17:36.920 by themselves putting up, you know whatever, a thirty spot 0:17:36.960 --> 0:17:37.920 if they absolutely had to. 0:17:38.119 --> 0:17:39.520 Bills visiting the Dolphins. 0:17:39.640 --> 0:17:42.639 The Bills are laying three and a half points and 0:17:42.720 --> 0:17:44.160 the total is forty eight and a half. 0:17:44.160 --> 0:17:46.840 What do you think, UH gonna take the Bills. This 0:17:46.880 --> 0:17:49.240 is a spot where, like I said earlier, I'm trying 0:17:49.280 --> 0:17:51.800 not to react a week overreact to Week one. The 0:17:51.840 --> 0:17:55.320 Bills didn't look great, especially offensively, but I think they 0:17:55.359 --> 0:17:57.240 are still the team that we saw last year. And 0:17:57.240 --> 0:17:59.800 the interesting thing to think about the Miami Dolphins, and 0:17:59.880 --> 0:18:02.160 they were the best spread team last year, but were 0:18:02.160 --> 0:18:03.840 they eleven and five I think in the regular season 0:18:03.840 --> 0:18:05.520 against the spread? And I was on the wrong side 0:18:05.560 --> 0:18:08.280 the large majority of them. And excuse me, they had 0:18:08.280 --> 0:18:11.680 the same kind of oat come in Week one where 0:18:11.720 --> 0:18:13.239 they want and cover the spread. But if you look 0:18:13.280 --> 0:18:17.640 at their defensive numbers, they're giving up yards. But what's 0:18:17.680 --> 0:18:20.880 happening is they're getting timely turnovers at the perfect time, 0:18:21.480 --> 0:18:23.760 and that that's what their whole kind of motive was. 0:18:23.840 --> 0:18:27.359 Last year they led the league in takeaways and turnovers. 0:18:27.359 --> 0:18:30.560 In my opinion, at least, there is at least some 0:18:30.640 --> 0:18:32.760 degree of luck to it. It's not all skill. You 0:18:32.800 --> 0:18:35.199 need the running back to fumble the ball. You need 0:18:35.240 --> 0:18:39.160 the quarterback to you know, miss rita route or coverage 0:18:39.240 --> 0:18:42.440 and throw a bad ball. So if they don't keep 0:18:42.480 --> 0:18:45.520 getting these these kind of takeaways, the Dolphins shouldn't be 0:18:45.680 --> 0:18:48.240 as good as what they are, especially obviously their defense. 0:18:48.280 --> 0:18:50.800 But they keep getting these takeaways. So it's funny to 0:18:50.800 --> 0:18:52.600 see that exact same thing happen in Week one that 0:18:52.640 --> 0:18:55.000 we saw all season last year in the Dolphins. So 0:18:55.200 --> 0:18:58.520 I going to continue fading the Dolphins because, like I said, 0:18:58.560 --> 0:19:00.840 I just think takeaways have a little bit of an 0:19:00.840 --> 0:19:03.040 element of luck, and that defense is giving up yards, 0:19:03.119 --> 0:19:05.439 the offense is and getting a ton of yards, and 0:19:05.480 --> 0:19:06.840 I think the Bills are gonna have a big bounce 0:19:06.880 --> 0:19:07.960 back week, so I'm gonna go with them. 0:19:08.280 --> 0:19:11.200 Yeah, I think this is really a Bills statement game 0:19:11.320 --> 0:19:13.200 at this one, because I think right it has to, 0:19:13.240 --> 0:19:15.960 because there are question marks about them because Josh Allen. 0:19:16.040 --> 0:19:18.320 You know, in Fantasy especially. 0:19:18.040 --> 0:19:20.240 We talk about that, like everybody waits for Josh Allen 0:19:20.280 --> 0:19:22.960 to turn back into like the guy who the Bills draft, 0:19:22.960 --> 0:19:25.280 and you're like, just this inaccurate guy, don't know what 0:19:25.320 --> 0:19:28.000 we saw last year. It's eventually things are gonna come back. 0:19:28.000 --> 0:19:30.479 That's not gonna happen. Josh Allen is great. The system 0:19:30.560 --> 0:19:33.840 that they will put in together is great. They're gonna 0:19:33.840 --> 0:19:36.600 be a fantastic team, including this year. There are some 0:19:36.680 --> 0:19:38.880 threes out there. There's actually one two and a half 0:19:38.880 --> 0:19:41.160 out there, which I love. But even with the hook, 0:19:41.240 --> 0:19:43.000 I'm totally fine with that. I'm not really going near 0:19:43.080 --> 0:19:45.480 the spread. It's at forty eight and a half. That 0:19:46.240 --> 0:19:48.840 strikes me as about right for something like that, you know, 0:19:48.960 --> 0:19:51.320 but I do agree with you that even on the road, 0:19:51.480 --> 0:19:54.000 I'm taking the Bills even if you gotta lay the hook. 0:19:54.320 --> 0:19:56.720 How about the Saints visiting the Panthers. 0:19:57.200 --> 0:20:02.200 The Saints are three and a half point favorites, and 0:20:02.480 --> 0:20:04.640 I will get you the total in like two seconds. 0:20:04.680 --> 0:20:06.240 How about the three and a half point favorites for 0:20:06.280 --> 0:20:06.639 the Saints. 0:20:06.680 --> 0:20:08.800 God to take the Saints man. Jameis Winston is my 0:20:08.840 --> 0:20:12.840 preseason bet to win MVP, and he proved proved me 0:20:12.920 --> 0:20:14.119 right a little bit there in Week one. Now, he 0:20:14.160 --> 0:20:15.800 didn't throw over a ton of yards. He's what like 0:20:15.800 --> 0:20:18.080 one hundred and fifty six yards, but somebody still had 0:20:18.080 --> 0:20:21.560 five touchdown passes, which is kind of insane. But I'm not. 0:20:21.840 --> 0:20:25.600 I'm I'm an anti Sam Donald guy. I was. I 0:20:25.680 --> 0:20:28.680 don't understand why the Panthers opted for Sam Donald over 0:20:29.200 --> 0:20:31.679 over Teddy Bridgewater. I thought, I mean, look just look 0:20:31.680 --> 0:20:33.840 at their completion percentage in their career and we'll get 0:20:33.880 --> 0:20:36.280 to Teddy Bridgewater when we talk about the Broncos. But 0:20:37.040 --> 0:20:39.480 not a believer in Sam Donald, it's it's gonna be 0:20:39.520 --> 0:20:41.560 tough for me to ever bet on him. I'm gonna 0:20:41.560 --> 0:20:44.199 take the Saints in this one. I love how Jamis 0:20:44.200 --> 0:20:46.879 Winston looked. He didn't throw any in any interceptions and 0:20:46.920 --> 0:20:49.359 that's that's his key thing. So give me the Saints 0:20:49.359 --> 0:20:49.720 in that one. 0:20:50.200 --> 0:20:52.600 I technically threw an interception that was negated by a 0:20:52.640 --> 0:20:54.920 nonsense penalty, but yes, he looked good. 0:20:55.080 --> 0:20:56.800 The offense look good, I know, officially not I'm just 0:20:56.840 --> 0:20:57.200 teasing you. 0:20:58.600 --> 0:21:01.440 As a Jets fan, there is no greater fader of 0:21:01.920 --> 0:21:03.480 Sam Darnold than myself. 0:21:03.520 --> 0:21:05.680 And again, the one non. 0:21:05.520 --> 0:21:07.320 Totals bet that I gave out on our show on 0:21:07.400 --> 0:21:09.919 Thursday was that I like the Jets getting five and 0:21:09.920 --> 0:21:10.280 a half. 0:21:10.280 --> 0:21:12.200 Now, that was a sweat, a little. 0:21:11.920 --> 0:21:14.919 Bit of a lucky cover, but whatever they covered. I 0:21:14.960 --> 0:21:17.320 do not believe in this Panthers team whatsoever. I do 0:21:17.400 --> 0:21:18.320 absolutely believe. 0:21:18.080 --> 0:21:18.600 In the Saints team. 0:21:18.600 --> 0:21:18.719 Now. 0:21:18.720 --> 0:21:21.560 They are suffering from a few injuries here on the 0:21:21.600 --> 0:21:23.840 defensive side of the ball, so that is something that 0:21:23.880 --> 0:21:26.560 could mess around with it. But I don't really see 0:21:26.560 --> 0:21:28.960 these two teams as in the same class right now. 0:21:29.119 --> 0:21:31.199 Just given what we saw in that game against the 0:21:31.320 --> 0:21:33.840 very good Packers team, I don't think the Packers are done. 0:21:33.880 --> 0:21:37.000 I mean that defense. Again, they have injuries, but they're legitimate. 0:21:37.000 --> 0:21:38.760 And if you're gonna have that defense going up against 0:21:38.800 --> 0:21:42.160 Sam Darnald, especially off his high of his revenge game win, 0:21:42.760 --> 0:21:45.000 I like that. I also kind of lean towards the 0:21:45.080 --> 0:21:47.199 over at forty four and a half. It's a pretty 0:21:47.280 --> 0:21:49.720 low total, not crazy low or anything like that. But 0:21:49.760 --> 0:21:51.480 I do think that the Saints are going to be 0:21:51.520 --> 0:21:55.239 able to score pretty easily on the Panthers, like not 0:21:55.320 --> 0:21:57.679 at will, but certainly they'll be able to put up points. 0:21:57.840 --> 0:21:59.280 And I think they're just enough there. 0:21:59.320 --> 0:22:01.239 I think the Panthers probably only need to put up 0:22:01.400 --> 0:22:04.080 you know, maybe two touchdowns, will probably find their way 0:22:04.080 --> 0:22:05.679 into it, and I think the Saints may go up 0:22:05.680 --> 0:22:07.760 ahead and sort of lead it to like the back 0:22:07.800 --> 0:22:09.600 door over. So for me, I kind of like the 0:22:09.640 --> 0:22:11.960 over under forty four and a half the over, but 0:22:12.040 --> 0:22:13.840 I don't feel like it's something you need to rush 0:22:13.840 --> 0:22:15.480 out and bet you know, I don't expect that line 0:22:15.480 --> 0:22:17.040 to move all that much, you know what I'm saying. 0:22:17.160 --> 0:22:19.560 And I will say one other thing about the Saints. 0:22:19.800 --> 0:22:21.840 Nobody talks about the Saints, at least in this offseas. 0:22:21.880 --> 0:22:23.960 Nobody really talk about how good their defense was, like 0:22:23.960 --> 0:22:26.119 they I think they were a third in scoring last year. 0:22:26.119 --> 0:22:28.600 The defense was, but that's not a thing that's that's 0:22:28.800 --> 0:22:30.639 ever really brought up. And then you saw that defense 0:22:30.640 --> 0:22:33.600 against the Packers there in Week one, So Saints continue 0:22:33.600 --> 0:22:34.280 to be underrated. 0:22:34.280 --> 0:22:36.600 I think, yep, all right, you mentioned the Broncos. Let's 0:22:36.640 --> 0:22:39.000 go to them. They are visiting the Jaguars. 0:22:39.080 --> 0:22:43.080 The Jaguars are getting six points from the Broncos here 0:22:43.280 --> 0:22:45.200 and the total is forty five and a half. 0:22:45.280 --> 0:22:45.760 What do you think? 0:22:46.400 --> 0:22:49.480 I listen, I'm not a big trends guy when it 0:22:49.520 --> 0:22:51.199 comes to, oh, this team's you know, ten and two 0:22:51.280 --> 0:22:53.840 against the spread in this spot. But there's one trend 0:22:53.880 --> 0:22:56.280 that I'm obsessed with that I have to continue betting on, 0:22:56.600 --> 0:22:59.880 and it is Teddy Bridgewater. Teddy covers, man. I don't 0:22:59.880 --> 0:23:01.520 have is against the spread record in front of me, 0:23:01.560 --> 0:23:03.200 but I think it was seventy two percent or seventy 0:23:03.200 --> 0:23:05.080 five percent hitting in the season. Then he just covered 0:23:05.080 --> 0:23:08.000 in Week one. He's a sports betters. He should be 0:23:08.000 --> 0:23:10.200 in the Sports Betting Hall of Fame if that ever exists. 0:23:10.240 --> 0:23:13.240 He needs to be eased that whole room dedicated to himself. So, 0:23:13.920 --> 0:23:16.399 like I said, I'm not usually big trends guy, more 0:23:16.440 --> 0:23:19.360 of a stats guy, but I'm gonna keep riding my guy, 0:23:19.400 --> 0:23:22.000 Teddy Bridgewater. Man, I'll take the Broncos. 0:23:21.720 --> 0:23:23.280 And I think if you do like him, you should 0:23:23.320 --> 0:23:26.320 probably bet him now because I think that if anything, 0:23:26.400 --> 0:23:29.240 this spread rises, right, like, if anything, the public is like, 0:23:29.280 --> 0:23:31.520 I'm not betting on the Jaguars, like give you the Broncos, 0:23:31.560 --> 0:23:34.040 like Teddy whatever, and it rises closer to a touchdown, 0:23:34.200 --> 0:23:36.040 So I think you do want it now when it's 0:23:36.080 --> 0:23:37.960 blows touch on, You're not going to miss out on 0:23:38.080 --> 0:23:39.480 anything if you bet it. It's not like it's going 0:23:39.560 --> 0:23:41.679 to drop to you know, for or anything like that, 0:23:41.720 --> 0:23:43.880 So you're not missing anything by doing it now. Any 0:23:44.200 --> 0:23:46.639 any lean at all on the total forty five and 0:23:46.640 --> 0:23:48.680 a half probably under. 0:23:48.800 --> 0:23:51.920 I mean Trevor Lawrence struggled against the Texans defense, which 0:23:51.920 --> 0:23:53.280 is supposed to be one of the worst defense in 0:23:53.359 --> 0:23:55.200 the NFL, and now he's going up against a very 0:23:55.320 --> 0:23:59.639 very good, probably underrated defense in the Broncos. And the 0:23:59.640 --> 0:24:01.960 Broncos offense, as much as I like Teddy Bridgewater, is 0:24:01.960 --> 0:24:05.720 not exactly an explosive, high scoring offense. It's efficient. He 0:24:05.760 --> 0:24:08.760 doesn't really turn the ball over. So yeah, I would 0:24:08.760 --> 0:24:11.960 probably go under on that total for sure, all right. 0:24:12.040 --> 0:24:15.520 Next one, both teams winning in Week one, the forty 0:24:15.600 --> 0:24:18.800 nine Ers visiting the Eagles. The forty nine Ers are 0:24:18.880 --> 0:24:21.800 favored by three and a half points and the total 0:24:22.040 --> 0:24:24.760 is fifty. Obviously, the forty nine Ers suffered a few 0:24:24.800 --> 0:24:27.199 injuries with Brett, and they've got Mostart who's now going 0:24:27.240 --> 0:24:29.120 to be out eight weeks, so they're a little banged 0:24:29.160 --> 0:24:32.119 up here. Meanwhile, Jalen Hurts was super impressive obviously in 0:24:32.119 --> 0:24:32.719 that opening win. 0:24:32.960 --> 0:24:33.480 What do you think? 0:24:34.520 --> 0:24:36.480 Yeah, heading in the season, I thought Jalen Hurts is 0:24:36.560 --> 0:24:38.560 one of the more underrated quarterbacks. I didn't think he 0:24:38.600 --> 0:24:40.919 really got a fair shot. Last year started late when 0:24:40.960 --> 0:24:43.119 the team had basically already given up on the season. 0:24:43.119 --> 0:24:44.919 They're getting three and a half points in the spot. 0:24:45.000 --> 0:24:47.840 And what happened with the forty nine Ers defense. This 0:24:47.880 --> 0:24:50.080 is supposed to be one of the best defenses in 0:24:50.119 --> 0:24:52.920 the NFL and they just allowed the Detroit Lions, led 0:24:52.920 --> 0:24:55.159 by Jared Goff to put up like four hundred and 0:24:55.200 --> 0:24:57.120 thirty yards against them. What's going on in the forty 0:24:57.160 --> 0:24:59.840 nine Ers defense? Now? To be fair, the majority of 0:24:59.840 --> 0:25:01.520 the points and the arrows came late in the game 0:25:01.560 --> 0:25:04.080 when basically the game was at least supposed to be 0:25:04.119 --> 0:25:07.960 over or felt like it was over. So maybe they 0:25:07.960 --> 0:25:10.520 are as good as they're supposed to be. But I'll 0:25:10.520 --> 0:25:12.520 take the Eagles getting three and a half points at home. 0:25:12.560 --> 0:25:15.640 It's over. It's just over that magic number of three 0:25:15.720 --> 0:25:18.159 that obviously, if you're betting on football, you know that 0:25:19.359 --> 0:25:21.280 I'll take the home team in the points, so. 0:25:21.800 --> 0:25:22.920 It's all three and a half. 0:25:23.000 --> 0:25:24.840 I mean, I like a home dog just generally that 0:25:24.880 --> 0:25:27.000 piques my interest a little bit. But I think you 0:25:27.080 --> 0:25:29.320 might get a little bit of the Eagles being undervalued 0:25:29.359 --> 0:25:31.760 early in the season. I think, you know, betters are 0:25:31.760 --> 0:25:34.520 probably willing maybe books too, as books look to sharpen 0:25:34.600 --> 0:25:36.280 their their models and their lines. 0:25:36.520 --> 0:25:38.520 Like I don't think they fully figured out exactly. 0:25:38.560 --> 0:25:41.040 And you know, I joked about it with our last 0:25:41.040 --> 0:25:42.639 gut Sewan because were both joking about how we had 0:25:42.720 --> 0:25:45.800 Nick Sirianni Coach of the Year tickets at like thirty 0:25:45.800 --> 0:25:47.840 five to one or forty to one. And part of 0:25:47.880 --> 0:25:50.720 it was they designed this entire offense. They had the 0:25:50.760 --> 0:25:53.760 whole offseason to design an offense. Rumors aside about the 0:25:53.800 --> 0:25:58.000 Shawn Watson around Jalen Hurts and his skill set. He 0:25:58.119 --> 0:26:01.000 has some playmakers and some receivers right now, because again 0:26:01.040 --> 0:26:04.040 he has Devonte Smith, who's really good. Rager, Jalen Rager 0:26:04.040 --> 0:26:06.480 looks pretty good. You've got Dallas Goddard still there. The 0:26:06.520 --> 0:26:09.000 offensive line is healthy. It's going to make a big difference. 0:26:09.000 --> 0:26:11.080 And again the forty nine are suffered a bunch of injuries. 0:26:11.240 --> 0:26:13.400 If you're giving me the hook with the team at home, 0:26:13.720 --> 0:26:14.480 I am more than. 0:26:14.359 --> 0:26:15.080 Willing to take it. 0:26:15.359 --> 0:26:17.480 How about is another big spread that we talked about. 0:26:17.480 --> 0:26:19.639 The Bucks are laying twelve and a half at home 0:26:19.960 --> 0:26:20.760 to the Falcons. 0:26:20.760 --> 0:26:21.920 The totals fifty two. 0:26:22.520 --> 0:26:27.400 I'm a Falcons fan, man, they just they're bad. They're 0:26:27.520 --> 0:26:30.359 so bad, man, I have to take the Buccaneers in 0:26:30.400 --> 0:26:32.840 this spot. Man, I was looking obviously as a Falcons 0:26:32.880 --> 0:26:35.080 fan when no matter how a game goes on, that 0:26:35.080 --> 0:26:37.000 that's the game where I'm going to be focused on 0:26:37.440 --> 0:26:39.560 more afterwards as far as looking at what happened in 0:26:39.560 --> 0:26:42.080 that game went right, what went wrong? Nothing went right 0:26:42.160 --> 0:26:45.919 for the Falcons. They have an offensive lineman I'm blanking 0:26:45.920 --> 0:26:47.560 on the name, but then an offensive lineman who would 0:26:47.560 --> 0:26:49.639 like a PFF ranking of like one point nine to 0:26:49.680 --> 0:26:53.480 eight or something like that, which is Matt Ryan. Apparently 0:26:53.520 --> 0:26:56.320 wasn't responsible for any of the hits that he took 0:26:56.440 --> 0:26:58.800 or any sacks that he took. Their offensive line is terrible, 0:26:58.840 --> 0:27:01.359 and when he looked on the defense side, they have 0:27:01.440 --> 0:27:04.600 one good cornerback in aj Terrell. The other guy just stinks, 0:27:04.600 --> 0:27:06.360 and the Eagles targeted in the whole game, that's where 0:27:06.359 --> 0:27:08.320 they got the large majority of the yards. So if 0:27:08.400 --> 0:27:10.800 Jalen Hurts can pick apart your defense, what is Tom 0:27:10.840 --> 0:27:13.760 Brady gonna do? And the Super Bowl defending champion Damn 0:27:13.800 --> 0:27:17.359 Bay Buccaneers. So I mean, if the Falcons can't score 0:27:17.640 --> 0:27:19.760 a touchdown on the Eagles, what are they going to 0:27:19.800 --> 0:27:22.360 do against this Buccaneers? If they can't stop Jalen Hurts 0:27:22.359 --> 0:27:23.639 and the Eagles, what are they going to do against 0:27:23.640 --> 0:27:26.800 the Buccaneers? Once again, I hate betting big favorites in 0:27:26.840 --> 0:27:30.440 the NFL, especially when it comes to divisional opponents, because 0:27:30.440 --> 0:27:32.360 they typically know we should be a little bit better. Yep, 0:27:33.560 --> 0:27:36.760 But I can't bettle my Falcons. Man. They might be 0:27:36.760 --> 0:27:38.200 the worst team in the NFL this year. 0:27:38.720 --> 0:27:41.560 This was one of the bigger lines that I'm okay 0:27:41.560 --> 0:27:44.399 with like you, because I agree there's not that you 0:27:44.480 --> 0:27:48.040 can't watch that game, the Eagles against the Falcons and 0:27:48.200 --> 0:27:52.240 think that anything remotely optimistic about what we saw on 0:27:52.280 --> 0:27:52.960 either side of the ball. 0:27:52.960 --> 0:27:53.679 You're absolutely right. 0:27:53.720 --> 0:27:57.120 Now you've got the Bucks, they're coming off, they're rested, right, 0:27:57.160 --> 0:27:57.720 They've got. 0:27:57.560 --> 0:27:58.360 The Mini Bay here. 0:27:58.680 --> 0:28:02.360 The opening day, you know what they can do offensively, 0:28:02.480 --> 0:28:04.760 like whatever they want, and their defense was probably a 0:28:04.800 --> 0:28:07.640 little pissed off because they allowed the Cowboys to kind 0:28:07.640 --> 0:28:09.960 of Dak Prescott to throw for over four hundred yards. 0:28:09.960 --> 0:28:12.240 So I'm in agreement with you. I would take this 0:28:12.280 --> 0:28:13.280 at twelve and a half right now. 0:28:13.320 --> 0:28:15.280 Again, I don't think you have any real chance of 0:28:15.359 --> 0:28:17.560 losing value if you bet it. Now, I think of 0:28:17.600 --> 0:28:19.800 anything you could lose value if you don't bet it. 0:28:19.880 --> 0:28:21.840 The total at fifty two, I'm probably just staying away 0:28:21.840 --> 0:28:23.680 from because I have no sense of if the Falcons 0:28:23.680 --> 0:28:25.439 are going to be able to score at all or not, 0:28:25.560 --> 0:28:27.480 or whether we saw like, oh god, they're going to 0:28:27.560 --> 0:28:29.320 be a team that's going to put up, you know, 0:28:29.720 --> 0:28:32.160 six ten points a game. So for me, I'm staying 0:28:32.160 --> 0:28:33.720 away from the total personally. 0:28:33.359 --> 0:28:37.080 But themselves, Bucks might score, that's true for themselves. 0:28:37.200 --> 0:28:42.240 You want over, then you want to go over with yeah? 0:28:42.320 --> 0:28:44.280 Yeah, all right, there we go. 0:28:43.960 --> 0:28:46.400 Go for the over. Right, there be a public root 0:28:46.440 --> 0:28:47.520 for their root for scoring. 0:28:47.720 --> 0:28:51.080 All right, Let's go to the Vikings visiting the Cardinals. 0:28:51.120 --> 0:28:53.640 The Cardinals are laying four and a half points, and 0:28:53.720 --> 0:28:58.360 the total is at fifty one. Obviously incredibly impressive opening 0:28:58.440 --> 0:29:00.960 day performance by the car Knows, who looked like world 0:29:01.040 --> 0:29:05.600 beaters both offensively and defensively. You mentioned the Vikings big 0:29:05.600 --> 0:29:09.680 disappointment expected them to be able to beat the Bengals. 0:29:09.720 --> 0:29:12.760 They didn't. But what do you think here? Fifty one 0:29:13.040 --> 0:29:15.920 for the total and four and a half is the spread. 0:29:16.160 --> 0:29:18.200 This one's a tough one. So the Cardinals were actually 0:29:18.320 --> 0:29:20.200 my money line bet in week one, so I cashed 0:29:20.200 --> 0:29:22.800 on them. But then the Vikings were one of my 0:29:22.800 --> 0:29:24.800 favorite picks, if not like a top three favorite pick 0:29:24.840 --> 0:29:26.720 for me in Week one because I thought the Vikings 0:29:26.720 --> 0:29:28.960 were gonna have a big bounce back season. They had 0:29:29.000 --> 0:29:32.680 a lot of injuries on defense last year. I thought 0:29:32.680 --> 0:29:35.640 I was expecting so much more, especially with Dalvin Cooks. 0:29:35.640 --> 0:29:37.960 And now I'm kind of torn, like do I stick 0:29:38.000 --> 0:29:40.680 to that take? Like do I'm trying not to overreact 0:29:40.720 --> 0:29:42.680 to week one? But the Vikings did not really look 0:29:42.680 --> 0:29:45.280 great in Week one, so this might be the toughest 0:29:45.320 --> 0:29:47.000 game on the board to bet for me this week. 0:29:47.080 --> 0:29:49.560 I think I'm just going to I think I'm gonna 0:29:49.560 --> 0:29:51.640 plug my nose and take the Vikings in the points here. 0:29:51.880 --> 0:29:54.320 I think I'm going to try not to overreact to that, 0:29:54.440 --> 0:29:58.360 you know, subpower performance against the Bengals, maybe the Cardinals. 0:29:58.760 --> 0:30:01.560 I listen, I what faded the car or I faded 0:30:01.600 --> 0:30:03.640 the Titans with the Cardinals money line because I think 0:30:03.640 --> 0:30:06.120 the Titans are way worse than what the record was 0:30:06.200 --> 0:30:08.720 last year. They had like a bottom three, bottom four defense. 0:30:08.960 --> 0:30:11.360 I do think the Vikings defense is better than Titans. 0:30:11.400 --> 0:30:14.400 Hopefully they can slow down the Cardinals offense a little bit. 0:30:15.000 --> 0:30:16.960 I hate to bet, but I'm thinking to plug my 0:30:17.000 --> 0:30:18.880 nose and take the Vikings in the points. 0:30:19.080 --> 0:30:20.720 So I'm not getting anywhere near to this game, but 0:30:20.760 --> 0:30:22.680 I will say that if I did. But if I did, 0:30:22.840 --> 0:30:25.680 I do think that this strikes me as something where 0:30:25.720 --> 0:30:27.280 the public is just going to be all over the 0:30:27.320 --> 0:30:28.560 Cardinals because of what. 0:30:28.520 --> 0:30:32.000 We saw, and the sharp money is going to flood. 0:30:31.720 --> 0:30:34.280 In on the Vikings because they know that the Vikings 0:30:34.280 --> 0:30:36.680 aren't as bad as what we saw last week and 0:30:36.720 --> 0:30:37.880 the Cardinals aren't as good. 0:30:38.000 --> 0:30:40.440 And again, the big thing we didn't nobody really. 0:30:40.200 --> 0:30:41.840 Talked about this, at least I didn't hear about it, 0:30:41.840 --> 0:30:43.920 and I didn't really think about it, especially from a 0:30:44.000 --> 0:30:47.400 betting or fantasy perspective, is just how little time the 0:30:47.520 --> 0:30:51.280 Titans had to become a cohesive unit given the COVID 0:30:51.280 --> 0:30:53.760 stuff that they dealt with, like a real legit outbreak, 0:30:53.760 --> 0:30:56.440 their coach, their quarterback, they had tons of stuff. I 0:30:56.520 --> 0:30:58.720 just feel like that game, I'm throwing it entirely out 0:30:58.920 --> 0:30:59.920 in my mind for the Titan. 0:31:00.200 --> 0:31:01.920 But Cardinals did look good. 0:31:01.960 --> 0:31:05.280 And it takes some major, you know, strength in your 0:31:05.320 --> 0:31:07.400 stomach to be able to bet on the Vikings. But 0:31:07.440 --> 0:31:09.480 I do agree if I were going to place a 0:31:09.480 --> 0:31:12.000 bet on this game, which I am not, I do 0:31:12.080 --> 0:31:14.239 think that the Vikings are probably sid And again, this 0:31:14.280 --> 0:31:16.120 is something where I think you don't have to rush in. 0:31:16.200 --> 0:31:17.520 I do see a couple of three and a halfs 0:31:17.520 --> 0:31:19.720 out there. My guess is it's gonna climb, because again 0:31:20.240 --> 0:31:22.080 I think you're going to see a lot of public 0:31:22.080 --> 0:31:24.400 money at that very least come in on the Cardinals. 0:31:25.000 --> 0:31:28.040 How about the Chargers laying three to the Cowboys in 0:31:28.080 --> 0:31:31.640 Los Angeles with a total just fifty five, just fifty 0:31:31.640 --> 0:31:33.560 five for the total? What do you think here that 0:31:33.560 --> 0:31:34.120 that line? 0:31:34.400 --> 0:31:36.640 Yeah, the total actually moved quick. I think it opened 0:31:36.680 --> 0:31:38.280 up like fifty one or fifty two. I think it's 0:31:38.280 --> 0:31:41.840 fifty too. It opened up so already shot up another 0:31:41.920 --> 0:31:44.800 tough game, man, because these the Cowboys have one of 0:31:44.840 --> 0:31:47.320 the best offenses in the NFL and might maybe the 0:31:47.320 --> 0:31:50.360 worst defense in the NFL. So, like, are either like, 0:31:50.560 --> 0:31:52.360 is the defense gonna be all step up at all 0:31:52.360 --> 0:31:54.640 in this game? Or is the offense going to take 0:31:54.640 --> 0:31:58.560 a step back at all in this game? I think 0:31:58.600 --> 0:32:01.000 I'm going to take the Cowboys in this one. I 0:32:01.080 --> 0:32:03.520 believe in Dak Prescott. Iiman he torched that that that 0:32:03.560 --> 0:32:06.640 Buccaneers defense, which is a very good defensive unit. Last week, 0:32:07.640 --> 0:32:09.560 I didn't love what I saw from the Chargers offense, 0:32:09.600 --> 0:32:11.840 but obviously they're going up against the Washington defense that's 0:32:11.880 --> 0:32:13.480 that's one of the best in the league. Another tough 0:32:13.520 --> 0:32:16.080 game to call. I'll take the Cowboys. 0:32:16.080 --> 0:32:17.040 So but tough. 0:32:17.600 --> 0:32:19.200 Do you think this is where the line ends up 0:32:19.360 --> 0:32:21.240 at three or do you think it moves one way 0:32:21.320 --> 0:32:22.240 or the other throughout the week. 0:32:23.120 --> 0:32:26.560 I don't think there's gonna be much movement. I agree, 0:32:26.640 --> 0:32:29.160 at least my My general feeling right now is this 0:32:29.200 --> 0:32:30.800 is one that people are kind of torn on. They're 0:32:30.800 --> 0:32:32.440 a little split. And when you get that, I mean, 0:32:32.480 --> 0:32:34.400 it's not like the Cardinals game where I where where 0:32:34.440 --> 0:32:36.000 we imagine a ton of money is gonna come in 0:32:36.040 --> 0:32:37.920 on the Cardinals. I think people are kind of split 0:32:37.960 --> 0:32:40.000 because I don't think everyone really knows what to do 0:32:40.040 --> 0:32:41.120 with the Cowboys yet either. 0:32:41.640 --> 0:32:44.520 Yeah, I agree. I think it's probably gonna land here 0:32:44.560 --> 0:32:46.960 at three. I think you're gonna get money on both sides. 0:32:47.560 --> 0:32:50.560 And with the total, Ian, I mean, it's fifty five, 0:32:50.760 --> 0:32:52.400 but I can't take the under on it. Like I 0:32:52.440 --> 0:32:56.160 recognize how insane that total is. I completely understand that's 0:32:56.160 --> 0:32:59.600 a banana's total, and I can't. I can't go. I'm 0:32:59.600 --> 0:33:01.160 not gonna take the over. I think I'm just staying 0:33:01.160 --> 0:33:01.920 away from the total. 0:33:02.400 --> 0:33:03.959 Yeah, I don't think I can. Yeah, I can't take 0:33:03.960 --> 0:33:07.400 it undering a Cowboys game. I'm not subjecting myself to 0:33:07.400 --> 0:33:08.960 that kind of torture. That is fair. 0:33:09.600 --> 0:33:10.680 I like it. I like it. 0:33:10.800 --> 0:33:13.560 Seahawks at Homeling five and a half to the Titans, 0:33:13.560 --> 0:33:15.280 who are obviously coming off a little bit of a 0:33:15.640 --> 0:33:18.400 lacking and the total at fifty four, what do you think? 0:33:18.640 --> 0:33:20.840 Yeah, Seahawks, I'm gonna continue to fade the Titans, Like 0:33:21.760 --> 0:33:23.680 I said, they were at eleven to five team last year. 0:33:24.000 --> 0:33:27.160 I think it's to be eleven and five with so 0:33:27.480 --> 0:33:29.320 if I'm correct, They're twenty eight or twenty ninth in 0:33:29.320 --> 0:33:31.360 opponent yards per game last season. The only teams that 0:33:31.360 --> 0:33:34.640 were worse were the Lions, Jaguars, and Texans, and that's 0:33:34.640 --> 0:33:36.560 not good. I don't know how a team can get 0:33:36.560 --> 0:33:38.320 to eleven and five with that kind of defense. And 0:33:38.320 --> 0:33:40.960 they did make some improvements in the offseason. I don't 0:33:41.000 --> 0:33:43.560 think it was enough, though, Especially their passing defense is 0:33:43.600 --> 0:33:46.040 not good. We saw what Kyler Murray did through the 0:33:46.080 --> 0:33:48.800 air last week, and now you got Russell Wilson against them, 0:33:48.880 --> 0:33:51.320 so I mean, good luck with that. So I'm going 0:33:51.360 --> 0:33:52.840 to take the Seahawks in this one. I'm going to 0:33:52.920 --> 0:33:55.560 keep fading the Titans until I think the lines are 0:33:55.680 --> 0:33:58.480 set at a more appropriate number for how I kind 0:33:58.480 --> 0:34:02.200 of evaluate them, and right now they shouldn't like I would. 0:34:01.920 --> 0:34:04.360 I would set the Seahawks probably at six points right now. 0:34:04.680 --> 0:34:07.560 Okay, Yeah, I don't want it. I just want to 0:34:07.560 --> 0:34:09.399 stay away from this one. I see everything you're saying. 0:34:09.480 --> 0:34:11.719 I'm not fading the Titans nearly as much as you are. 0:34:11.719 --> 0:34:14.360 I understand why you are, and I think the Seahawks 0:34:14.520 --> 0:34:17.080 are going to do what they did last year, which 0:34:17.080 --> 0:34:20.080 has come out really hot, especially offensively before they kind 0:34:20.120 --> 0:34:22.120 of turtle up a little bit because of they have 0:34:22.160 --> 0:34:23.600 one bad game or something like that. 0:34:23.880 --> 0:34:25.440 But still, I could also see. 0:34:25.320 --> 0:34:27.759 A scenario where the Titans and Mike Rabel, who I 0:34:27.800 --> 0:34:30.640 respect a ton as a coach, kind of lays into 0:34:30.680 --> 0:34:33.480 them and they come out much sharper here. The total also, like, 0:34:33.719 --> 0:34:35.560 I'd love to go over on this because I think 0:34:35.600 --> 0:34:37.040 there's gonna be a ton of scoring here. I don't 0:34:37.040 --> 0:34:39.279 think the Seahawks defense is good enough to shut down 0:34:39.280 --> 0:34:42.160 the Titans. With an extra week here to get better, 0:34:42.160 --> 0:34:44.160 and I think the Seahawks can pretty much score it will. 0:34:44.560 --> 0:34:47.319 But at fifty four, man, I just don't. I don't 0:34:47.360 --> 0:34:49.040 think I can go near it. It's not a total 0:34:49.080 --> 0:34:49.799 that I want to go near. 0:34:49.800 --> 0:34:50.239 How about you? 0:34:51.719 --> 0:34:53.480 Yeah, I think I would. I think I would take 0:34:53.480 --> 0:34:55.600 the under. Obviously, we know the Titans love to run 0:34:55.600 --> 0:34:56.839 the ball, and when you run the ball, I mean 0:34:56.880 --> 0:34:59.319 obviously we all know the clock keeps going less time 0:34:59.320 --> 0:35:03.200 on the clock, less time for points. That's tough, Yeah, 0:35:03.239 --> 0:35:05.080 because of the Titans defense is it's kind of tough 0:35:05.080 --> 0:35:08.080 to bet on under with the Titans defense, But I 0:35:08.080 --> 0:35:08.600 think I'd go. 0:35:08.600 --> 0:35:11.759 Under, all right, Chiefs visiting the Ravens the game we 0:35:11.800 --> 0:35:13.959 all deserve. Again, we have not seen the Ravens yet. 0:35:14.120 --> 0:35:16.759 Hopefully they look like what we expected them to look. 0:35:16.800 --> 0:35:19.160 They've dealt with several injuries coming in. But as of 0:35:19.239 --> 0:35:23.480 right now, the Chiefs are favored by three and the 0:35:23.680 --> 0:35:26.160 total is at fifty five and a half. These totals 0:35:26.160 --> 0:35:28.920 man just nonsensical almost. By the way, one of my 0:35:28.920 --> 0:35:31.440 favorite memories, I think from last year is when the 0:35:31.520 --> 0:35:33.719 Ravens were favored against the Chiefs. I'm pretty sure that 0:35:33.760 --> 0:35:36.520 was last year, and I remember taking Patrick Mahomes as 0:35:36.520 --> 0:35:39.600 a dog and just feeling like it was like the dumbest, 0:35:39.680 --> 0:35:42.399 like goofy. It's like when you, like, you know, win 0:35:42.440 --> 0:35:44.400 the lottery or something like that. It was so ridiculous. 0:35:44.520 --> 0:35:46.880 Here not a dog obviously laying three in Baltimore. 0:35:46.880 --> 0:35:47.399 What do you think? 0:35:48.360 --> 0:35:50.439 Yeah, once again, a little tough because we haven't seen 0:35:50.719 --> 0:35:54.239 the Ravens yet. But I mean, got to take the Chiefs, man, 0:35:54.680 --> 0:35:56.520 I mean, I say, got to take the Chiefs. But 0:35:56.560 --> 0:35:58.120 then again, I mean the Chiefs have not been good 0:35:58.200 --> 0:35:59.759 covering the spread. They didn't cover the spread in week 0:35:59.760 --> 0:36:01.440 when either but I was on the Browns. But anytime 0:36:01.440 --> 0:36:03.720 you can get the Chiefs at this low of a number. 0:36:03.760 --> 0:36:05.600 I think you have to take them. Where you want 0:36:05.600 --> 0:36:07.360 to avoid the Chiefs is when you get up closer 0:36:07.840 --> 0:36:10.560 to a touchdown because it's tough to win football games 0:36:10.560 --> 0:36:14.080 by more than a single score. But I think the 0:36:14.160 --> 0:36:16.839 Ravens might regress a little bit this year. I'm very 0:36:16.880 --> 0:36:18.680 interesting to see and hopefully we get a little bit 0:36:18.719 --> 0:36:20.400 of a sense of it tonight. What Lamar Jackson is 0:36:20.400 --> 0:36:21.560 going to be like because he took a little bit 0:36:21.600 --> 0:36:23.520 of a step back last year. So is he going 0:36:23.600 --> 0:36:25.080 to return to MVP form or is he going to 0:36:25.160 --> 0:36:27.480 look more like he did last year? So this is 0:36:27.920 --> 0:36:30.560 one that's it's very tough to call without seeing one 0:36:30.600 --> 0:36:32.799 of the two teams involved. Like I feel like I 0:36:32.840 --> 0:36:34.480 have a better sense of the Raiders even though I 0:36:34.480 --> 0:36:37.160 haven't seen them this year. Where the Ravens, I really 0:36:37.200 --> 0:36:39.319 want to see them, get a sense for them. And also, 0:36:39.320 --> 0:36:41.520 obviously we all know how banged up their backfield is. 0:36:42.280 --> 0:36:44.120 I had my phone on the other day. I thought 0:36:44.120 --> 0:36:45.920 I might get a call from the Ravens to get 0:36:45.960 --> 0:36:47.320 something because there's. 0:36:47.160 --> 0:36:48.880 No don't worry get up there. 0:36:49.440 --> 0:36:53.120 So I got it back the Chiefs and I would guess. 0:36:53.280 --> 0:36:55.839 My guess would be I mean, unless the Ravens blow 0:36:55.880 --> 0:36:57.759 up the Raiders tonight. Now I might look stupid in 0:36:57.800 --> 0:37:00.400 hindsight saying this, but I think the spreadsbably going to 0:37:00.400 --> 0:37:01.359 get bigger after this game. 0:37:01.680 --> 0:37:03.640 After this game, yeah, I think that's right. 0:37:04.200 --> 0:37:06.239 So again, if you're listening to it, people are probably 0:37:06.280 --> 0:37:08.239 listening to this after the game is over anyway, so 0:37:08.280 --> 0:37:10.040 maybe the line has already moved. It is three, and 0:37:10.080 --> 0:37:12.719 it's three everywhere, like, there's no non threes that I'm 0:37:12.719 --> 0:37:14.920 looking at in the market, because I think that that 0:37:15.160 --> 0:37:17.520 is probably the right line necessarily. 0:37:17.760 --> 0:37:19.799 But I would take the Chiefs if it gets over 0:37:19.840 --> 0:37:20.359 a field goal. 0:37:20.400 --> 0:37:22.360 I do worry a little bit, because you're right, the 0:37:22.400 --> 0:37:25.200 Chiefs are a phenomenal team, but not great at covering 0:37:25.239 --> 0:37:28.160 the spread necessarily. If it's at three, I feel fine 0:37:28.200 --> 0:37:30.120 because I really do feel confident that a the Chiefs 0:37:30.120 --> 0:37:31.880 are going to win this game again without having seen 0:37:32.600 --> 0:37:36.399 this go, and second that it's going to be by 0:37:36.640 --> 0:37:38.920 at least a field goal. So I feel comfortable at three. 0:37:39.000 --> 0:37:41.120 When it gets three and a half, the total is bananas. 0:37:41.160 --> 0:37:43.040 I'm not even like, I'm just not going near fifty 0:37:43.080 --> 0:37:45.480 five and a half points. Bread, I get it. Patrick, 0:37:45.560 --> 0:37:47.279 The Chiefs can do that by themselves if they really 0:37:47.360 --> 0:37:50.040 had to. But I'm just staying away. Last one here, 0:37:50.600 --> 0:37:55.239 a really really really angry Packers team at home on 0:37:55.360 --> 0:37:58.719 Monday Night football against the Lions. Laying ten and a 0:37:58.760 --> 0:38:01.200 half points there, Get sure that hook is there, because 0:38:01.440 --> 0:38:03.280 they're going to make you If you want the Packers, 0:38:03.320 --> 0:38:06.120 they're going to make you mad. And total of forty 0:38:06.160 --> 0:38:07.240 eight and a half points. 0:38:08.040 --> 0:38:10.279 Yeah, I'm realizing now that I like three double digit 0:38:10.320 --> 0:38:13.360 favorites in the NFL and that's. 0:38:12.040 --> 0:38:14.200 Not What would the spread have to be for you 0:38:14.280 --> 0:38:16.439 to not take the Packers in this game? And that's 0:38:16.440 --> 0:38:16.920 the question. 0:38:16.960 --> 0:38:18.799 I think it'd have to be two touchdowns. I think 0:38:18.840 --> 0:38:20.480 it would have to be. I mean, but then again, 0:38:20.520 --> 0:38:23.160 the Lions put up four hundred and thirty yards last week, 0:38:23.239 --> 0:38:25.480 so maybe the Lions aren't as bad as everyone thinks. 0:38:25.480 --> 0:38:28.840 Maybe Dan Campbell's you know, kind of raw raw, you know, motivation, 0:38:29.000 --> 0:38:31.720 kind of tactics is kind of working for the Lions. 0:38:31.760 --> 0:38:34.000 So it's hard to really argue too much against the 0:38:34.000 --> 0:38:38.879 Lions right now. But yeah, the Packers, I would think, 0:38:38.920 --> 0:38:41.160 are angry. Now. I'm not never gonna handicap too much 0:38:41.200 --> 0:38:43.120 based on what I assume someone's emotions are going to 0:38:43.160 --> 0:38:46.080 be heading into a game, but they're either the number 0:38:46.080 --> 0:38:48.239 one or number two scoring offense last year, they're going 0:38:48.280 --> 0:38:51.000 up against what it's supposed well, they are the bad 0:38:51.040 --> 0:38:53.120 defense because even though that game was closed to put 0:38:53.160 --> 0:38:54.799 up a ton of points on them, correct, the green 0:38:54.840 --> 0:38:56.799 Bay green Bay will score. It's is whether or not 0:38:56.880 --> 0:38:58.160 are the lines going to be able to keep it 0:38:58.200 --> 0:39:00.960 close enough during the game. So yeah, I will back 0:39:01.040 --> 0:39:03.560 the Packers in this one, but I might need it. 0:39:04.200 --> 0:39:05.799 I need it, might need to reevaluate some of my 0:39:05.840 --> 0:39:07.640 pass picks because it could take it three double edgit 0:39:07.760 --> 0:39:09.759 favorites makes me worry, but I like that freedom, so 0:39:09.800 --> 0:39:10.880 I'll probably stick with them. 0:39:11.040 --> 0:39:14.040 Yeah, I think that the Packers either, ID saide. Oh 0:39:14.120 --> 0:39:16.000 look see, this is a New York experience for you. 0:39:16.040 --> 0:39:18.600 If everyone can hear that in the background, Ian has 0:39:18.640 --> 0:39:20.920 moved to New York. It's fine, You're fine. They're not 0:39:20.960 --> 0:39:25.560 there for you, I promise. Yeah, I missed my old sounds. 0:39:25.239 --> 0:39:26.040 Of New York anyway. 0:39:26.280 --> 0:39:28.080 Uh yeah, I agree with you that even at ten 0:39:28.120 --> 0:39:30.480 and a half, I leaned towards the Packers. I'm actually 0:39:30.480 --> 0:39:33.279 a little more excited about the total because I do 0:39:33.320 --> 0:39:35.360 think that the Packers. First of all, the Lions have 0:39:35.440 --> 0:39:37.720 terrible defense. I have a terrible secondary, and Jeff Okuda 0:39:37.880 --> 0:39:40.359 now has I think an achilles injury. So a bad 0:39:40.400 --> 0:39:43.000 secondary just gets worse. I think the Packers are going 0:39:43.040 --> 0:39:45.640 to put up monstrous amount of points in this game. 0:39:45.719 --> 0:39:47.640 I think it's gonna be ton and I think that 0:39:47.719 --> 0:39:50.359 the Lions, I think they'll probably be able to do 0:39:50.520 --> 0:39:52.480 close not what they did last time, but in terms 0:39:52.520 --> 0:39:54.799 of the back door sort of like this game is over, 0:39:55.120 --> 0:39:57.560 the Packers don't want to get injured on defense, They're 0:39:57.560 --> 0:39:58.600 gonna step back a little bit. 0:39:58.600 --> 0:40:00.239 There's gonna be forty five thousand. 0:40:00.040 --> 0:40:02.879 Jump offs to Jamal Williams and DeAndre Swift and they'll 0:40:02.880 --> 0:40:03.520 be able to get there. 0:40:03.560 --> 0:40:06.040 So that actually is a number that I would bet. 0:40:06.120 --> 0:40:08.200 I don't think that it's necessarily going to climb throughout 0:40:08.200 --> 0:40:09.719 the year, like I don't think throughout the week. I 0:40:09.719 --> 0:40:11.880 don't think we're getting a fifty or fifty one. But 0:40:11.920 --> 0:40:13.960 at the same time, forty eight and a half I 0:40:14.280 --> 0:40:15.920 kind of lean the over because I view a lot 0:40:15.960 --> 0:40:16.600 of points. 0:40:16.360 --> 0:40:17.560 Coming in this game. What do you think of that? 0:40:18.000 --> 0:40:20.440 Yeah, give me the over. I forevery I agree with 0:40:20.480 --> 0:40:22.160 every single point you had about the over. 0:40:22.560 --> 0:40:23.680 I love it. That's it. 0:40:23.800 --> 0:40:26.040 Those are all the games. Man, I'm so happy football 0:40:26.120 --> 0:40:28.560 is back. We are done recording this before we get 0:40:28.600 --> 0:40:31.719 to look idiotic after, you know, whatever happens with the 0:40:31.800 --> 0:40:34.160 Raiders in the Ravens game. But Ian, you have been 0:40:34.160 --> 0:40:37.000 a guest on the show several times. It is always 0:40:37.040 --> 0:40:39.480 a pleasure to have you. I really appreciate it. Tell 0:40:39.480 --> 0:40:41.560 everybody where they can find you and your work. 0:40:42.239 --> 0:40:44.640 Yeah. Absolutely, the best place is always a Twitter. As 0:40:44.640 --> 0:40:46.479 you mentioned at the start of the show, though there 0:40:46.560 --> 0:40:49.000 Ian mac Bett's I A I N M A C 0:40:49.560 --> 0:40:51.319 B E T s my parents out of the thrown 0:40:51.320 --> 0:40:53.280 extra eye into my name to make my life difficult. 0:40:53.880 --> 0:40:56.960 Also check out bet Sided and the Bacon Bets podcast 0:40:57.000 --> 0:40:58.959 comes out Thursday, and that's when I give my pick. 0:40:59.000 --> 0:41:00.839 I call it the Road to two seventy two this 0:41:00.920 --> 0:41:03.839 year because I give a pick for every single all 0:41:03.880 --> 0:41:05.680 two hundred and seventy two NFL games. So keep an 0:41:05.719 --> 0:41:06.200 eye out for that. 0:41:06.719 --> 0:41:08.040 I mean I really look forward. 0:41:08.040 --> 0:41:09.439 I did see that you were doing that, because yeah, 0:41:09.440 --> 0:41:11.320 I think you have it pinned your Twitter profile. 0:41:11.360 --> 0:41:13.520 But man, God bless you good luck with it. 0:41:13.560 --> 0:41:15.600 I hope you again have a profitable year, because that 0:41:15.760 --> 0:41:18.160 is not easy anyway. We will be back later in 0:41:18.200 --> 0:41:20.640 the week Joe and Joe, Piece of P and Scott 0:41:20.640 --> 0:41:22.680 Bogmhen are going to do the college Football Breakdown, and 0:41:22.680 --> 0:41:25.400 then I'll be back on Thursday with another guest talking 0:41:25.440 --> 0:41:28.280 about our best bets for Week two. 0:41:28.120 --> 0:41:29.320 Of the NFL season. 0:41:29.680 --> 0:41:31.360 Thanks for tuning in, everybody, and I'll talk to you 0:41:31.400 --> 0:41:46.160 again in a couple of days.