Speaker 1: Hey everybody, Welcome back to the Betting Pros Podcast, brought
Speaker 1: to you by bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harris.
Speaker 1: Find me on Twitter at Dan Harris. Eighty.
Speaker 2: Week one is almost in the books.
Speaker 1: We still have one game left tonight, but it is
Speaker 1: already time to start looking ahead at the lines for
Speaker 1: week two to find out if there is any value,
Speaker 1: if we expect any movement, all that good stuff. To
Speaker 1: do that with me is Ian McMillan from bet Sided.
Speaker 1: He's on Twitter at Ian mac betts. And that's Ai
Speaker 1: and Ian. Thank you for joining me.
Speaker 2: How you doing.
Speaker 3: I'm doing well, man, Thanks for having me.
Speaker 2: Did you have a good beat on week one?
Speaker 1: Because I felt like there were some games that I
Speaker 1: saw really clearly in others I was just way off on.
Speaker 3: I did very well in Week one. I went twelve
Speaker 3: and three. I bet on every single game. I had
Speaker 3: two hundred and seventy two games this year. I'm betting
Speaker 3: on every single one. I did the same thing last season,
Speaker 3: and I'm on pace now to have easily my best
Speaker 3: week I've ever had, so twelve and three heading into
Speaker 3: Monday night football, so I've been lucky.
Speaker 2: How did all right? First of all, for the record.
Speaker 2: Who do you have tonight?
Speaker 3: I got the Raiders to cover tonight?
Speaker 2: Okay, is it four or four and a half when
Speaker 2: you had it?
Speaker 3: I think I have it at four.
Speaker 2: Okay. How did you do last year in the content?
Speaker 2: In your betting every game?
Speaker 3: I finished profitable, which is my goal because obviously, if
Speaker 3: you're betting on every single game for an entire NFL season,
Speaker 3: then that was kind of my goal was just to
Speaker 3: kind of finish in the black. So I don't remember
Speaker 3: my exact record, but I finished around up five and
Speaker 3: a half units. I think it was all spreads and totals,
Speaker 3: and then once a week I do one money line
Speaker 3: underdog a week as well.
Speaker 2: So I love it all right, well, well done, well good.
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Speaker 1: the entire slate and I give out my player prompts.
Speaker 1: All right, Ian, better of every NFL game? Are you
Speaker 1: ready for an early look at Week two?
Speaker 2: Lines.
Speaker 3: Absolutely very exciting. Let's get into it.
Speaker 2: I'm so excited. I love it.
Speaker 1: Okay, So I'm going to be using the consensus lines
Speaker 1: over at bettingpros dot com that looks at a bunch
Speaker 1: of different books, but obviously we will look around and
Speaker 1: see whether or not any individual book is offering anything
Speaker 1: that might be a little more favorable or anything like that.
Speaker 1: So let's start with the Thursday night game, and that
Speaker 1: is the Giants of visiting Washington and taking on the
Speaker 1: Washington football team. Consensus line right now Betting Pros is
Speaker 1: Washington laying three and a half points and the over
Speaker 1: under a minuscule forty one points.
Speaker 2: How do you see this game?
Speaker 3: I mean, we're starting off right in Week two with
Speaker 3: just a classic Thursday night football game between two teams
Speaker 3: that just stinks. So, I mean that's a pretty low total.
Speaker 3: My initial thought would have been to go with the under,
Speaker 3: but I think I'm going to back the Giants on
Speaker 3: this one. I think they had kind of a bad
Speaker 3: showing in Week one. Now Washington that was actually on Washington.
Speaker 3: That was one of the few picks I lost last week.
Speaker 3: So maybe I'm just a little bit of an anti
Speaker 3: Washington buyas. I'm a little mad at them a little bit,
Speaker 3: but I think the Giants are better than what they
Speaker 3: showed in Week one. My issue with the Giants is
Speaker 3: they just don't have an offensive line. I hate that
Speaker 3: these teams that go up and pick up all these
Speaker 3: like wide receivers and these finesse positions and don't build
Speaker 3: the offensive line. So their offensive line is probably gonna
Speaker 3: have issues against his Washington defensive line. But I don't know, man,
Speaker 3: I'm trying not to overreact to Week one results where
Speaker 3: the Giants looked really bad. I think that's what week
Speaker 3: two is really all about, trying not to overreact to
Speaker 3: week one results. So I'm probably gonna take a lot
Speaker 3: of underdogs in week two. So I'm gonna start off
Speaker 3: with the Giants on Thursday night.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's really tough.
Speaker 1: Out of curiosity, do you what do you think the
Speaker 1: impact is of the fact that Ryan Fitzpatrick obviously suffered
Speaker 1: that hip this location, he's out, it's gonna be Taylor Heineke.
Speaker 2: Do you think that helps the over helps the under or.
Speaker 3: What I mean, it certainly has to help the under
Speaker 3: I mean, if there's one thing about Fitzpatrick that he
Speaker 3: can do, and that's that's throw touchdowns. Now, sometimes he
Speaker 3: throwze five interceptions to the five touchdowns, but usually those
Speaker 3: interceptions then turn into points for the other team, which
Speaker 3: then helped the over as well. So I mean, I
Speaker 3: would guess this total would be would be significantly higher,
Speaker 3: probably five or six points higher if Fitzpatrick was playing out.
Speaker 2: You think it may it moved that much.
Speaker 1: See, and this is actually I wish I could have
Speaker 1: checked it out before we recorded. I actually don't know
Speaker 1: if it moved. Do you ever do you take out
Speaker 1: like a look aheadline or when you make your bets
Speaker 1: on every game? Do you wait until basically you have
Speaker 1: all the information possible.
Speaker 3: Yeah, well, I place my bets because so I record
Speaker 3: my podcast, the Bacon Bets Podcast Wednesday night. So right
Speaker 3: before I record, that's when I lock in my bettcha
Speaker 3: because that I know, I'm kind of at the mercy
Speaker 3: of those Wednesday Night lines, So I do. I try
Speaker 3: not to look too far ahead, but I did not
Speaker 3: see what the total was on the look aheadlines. Would
Speaker 3: have been.
Speaker 1: Interesting though, right, And again, realistically that's that's not a
Speaker 1: huge deal necessarily because I don't really finalize it until
Speaker 1: obviously the end of the previous week. But interesting because
Speaker 1: I don't I don't I get that fits helps it
Speaker 1: leans towards the over, But I think that big a move.
Speaker 1: That'd be a pretty big move. Heine gets very capable.
Speaker 1: I think for me, I see it sort of the
Speaker 1: way you do. I mean the under obviously hitting the
Speaker 1: Broncos in the Broncos Giants game, but I don't really
Speaker 1: think I could go anywhere near the total in this game.
Speaker 1: But with the spread, if you're giving me the hook
Speaker 1: with the extra five, you know, half a point, I'm.
Speaker 2: Probably taking it.
Speaker 1: There are threes out there, by the way I FanDuel,
Speaker 1: there's threes so that I don't really like. But if
Speaker 1: you give me the hook, I probably will go there.
Speaker 1: How about the absolutely dominant Houston Texans going to Cleveland
Speaker 1: to take on the Browns. The Browns are laying a
Speaker 1: minuscule twelve and a half points.
Speaker 2: The over under is forty eight. What do you think?
Speaker 3: This one's tough? Man, These big Week two spreads and
Speaker 3: my biggest issue, and I'm probably gonna go with the
Speaker 3: Browns here. I haven't finalized it yet, even though it's
Speaker 3: a big spread and my big thing is the Texans
Speaker 3: run defense last year one of the worst run defense.
Speaker 3: I think it might have been the worst. I think
Speaker 3: them in the Bengals were the two worst run defenses
Speaker 3: in the NFL last year. And then we obviously know
Speaker 3: that's exactly what the Cleveland Browns do really well is
Speaker 3: just pound the rock. I think the Browns are the
Speaker 3: best offensive line in the NFL. I think Nick Chubb
Speaker 3: might be the best running back in the NFL. I
Speaker 3: would say he is. I would go on the limb
Speaker 3: and say Nick Chubb is. I know a lot of
Speaker 3: people would always say Derrick Henry Christian McCaffrey. I love
Speaker 3: Nick Chubb. I think he's gonna have a big year.
Speaker 3: Big spread though, man, and I hate taking double digit
Speaker 3: favorites in the NFL, but and there's a couple of
Speaker 3: them this week, I might have to, So right now
Speaker 3: I'm gonna lean Browns. But it's this one's tough, man,
Speaker 3: This one's tough because the thing about the Texans they
Speaker 3: have veterans, they have guys who kind of know the sport.
Speaker 3: It's not a young team, which isn't good for them
Speaker 3: long term. But they're gonna be able to win a
Speaker 3: couple of games this year. I think because of that
Speaker 3: veteran presence on that team, so tough one. I'm gonna
Speaker 3: take the.
Speaker 2: Browns well Tarat Taylor.
Speaker 1: I mean, he's a professional quarterback, right, He's going to
Speaker 1: keep them stther than there. Let me ask you something, man,
Speaker 1: Am I crazy or I don't remember? Up until three
Speaker 1: years ago, maybe seeing just these giant line I mean,
Speaker 1: twelve and a half's not insane, like not like when
Speaker 1: we're getting like the seventeen or eighteen point lines right
Speaker 1: with like the Patriots stuff. But to see these lines
Speaker 1: just routinely, like in the double digits all the day long,
Speaker 1: is it me?
Speaker 2: Or do we see that way more frequently these days?
Speaker 3: Yeah? I think we are. I mean they're starting to
Speaker 3: us look like college football lines a little, right, But yeah,
Speaker 3: I think we are. I don't know if it's just
Speaker 3: actually disparity in kind of talent, or if it's just
Speaker 3: because the public is getting so much more involved in
Speaker 3: sports betting, and I think that might have something to
Speaker 3: do with it that. Obviously, the public betters are usually
Speaker 3: a little bit square, so when it's a big mismatch,
Speaker 3: they just assume that the better team is gonna win
Speaker 3: by a ton of points. But not necessarily the case.
Speaker 3: I mean, look at this Kansas City Chiefs last season,
Speaker 3: big favorites in almost every single game. A lot of
Speaker 3: them were like double digit close to double jit digit.
Speaker 3: In the regular season. They finished seven to nine against
Speaker 3: the spread. So even though there's mismatches, doesn't mean the
Speaker 3: team's gonna win by a lot.
Speaker 1: Yeah, Mike, with the last game, I don't really see
Speaker 1: like a ton of value here that I'm dying to
Speaker 1: lock in a line or anything before we move later
Speaker 1: in the week.
Speaker 2: This is there just tough.
Speaker 1: Honestly, Let's go to the Patriots visiting the Jets. Patriots
Speaker 1: are favored by five and a half points and the
Speaker 1: total is forty two and a half.
Speaker 3: What do you think, Oh, I think I got to
Speaker 3: go with the under on that one. I was on
Speaker 3: the under and the Jets Panthers game this past week,
Speaker 3: I just don't. I mean, I don't really believe in
Speaker 3: anything of the Jets offense. The other game I was
Speaker 3: on the under as well was the Patriots, and the
Speaker 3: Patriots and Dolphins last week, both those under his cash
Speaker 3: as well. I think both teams do have slightly better
Speaker 3: defenses than offenses, especially the case with the Patriots. I
Speaker 3: just don't think they have quite enough offense weapons to
Speaker 3: put up a ton of points. I'm surprised. I'm actually
Speaker 3: surprised this total is not in the thirties, like thirty
Speaker 3: eight to thirty nine. So I think you said it
Speaker 3: was forty two and a half. I'm probably gonna end
Speaker 3: up taking the under it no one.
Speaker 1: What's funny is there are books out there at forty
Speaker 1: three and a half. Forty two and a half is
Speaker 1: the consensus line. But you know, I'm in agreement with you.
Speaker 1: I mean, I think the bottom line is that the
Speaker 1: Jets have a significant weakness in their defense, and it
Speaker 1: is the secondary. But that's not really necessarily what the
Speaker 1: Patriots are built to exploit, right, I mean, you're gonna
Speaker 1: have Nelson Agalo or you're gonna have Jacobe Myers, but
Speaker 1: they're not the type of guys who are really just
Speaker 1: gonna destroy you who you can pick on them. They
Speaker 1: are gonna want to play conservative, They're gonna want to
Speaker 1: lean on their defense.
Speaker 2: And we saw the Jets.
Speaker 1: Zach Wilson hung in there and played pretty well in
Speaker 1: the second half, but their offensive line is decimated. Makai
Speaker 1: Becktin's now out for several weeks. I'm with you. I'm
Speaker 1: with you if you can get a forty three and
Speaker 1: a half, Like there are randomly kind of sitting out
Speaker 1: there and it's forty three at Fox Bed and at
Speaker 1: points bet it's forty three. I agree with you. I
Speaker 1: would lock that in because I do not expect it
Speaker 1: to necessarily move down. Now, this one's a little tough
Speaker 1: because we have not seen the Raiders play. But the
Speaker 1: Steelers right now are home and they are laying six
Speaker 1: and a half to the Raiders, and the total is
Speaker 1: not a big deal. I totally messed up my sheet
Speaker 1: right now. But start with the spread. I'll get you
Speaker 1: the total in the second six and a half? Did
Speaker 1: I say six and a half? Sorry, Steelers at home
Speaker 1: against the Raiders.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 3: I think I would probably back the Raiders, just like
Speaker 3: am tonight. I mean, I think the thing with the
Speaker 3: Raiders is just people think they're worse than what they
Speaker 3: are they're actually I don't think they're that bad of
Speaker 3: a team really, especially their offense. They were like something
Speaker 3: like sixth or seventh in offensive yards per game last season,
Speaker 3: around the same and third down conversion percentage, which I
Speaker 3: value quite a bit when handicapping my dame. Their defense
Speaker 3: is obviously horrific, but I think the Steelers offense is horrific.
Speaker 3: So if the Steelers are getting that many or the
Speaker 3: sort of the Raiders are getting that many points, I'm
Speaker 3: gonna definitely back them on the spread consist year. Obviously,
Speaker 3: the Steelers defense is arguably the top unit in the NFL,
Speaker 3: but I don't think the Raiders are as bad as
Speaker 3: a lot of people think. Now, if someone's watching this
Speaker 3: after Monday night, I might look stupid because who knows
Speaker 3: what's gonna happen in this game. So in my defense,
Speaker 3: we haven't seen the Raiders yet this season, but I
Speaker 3: think they're better than They're not a great team. They're
Speaker 3: not a good team, but I think they're better than
Speaker 3: what a lot of people give them credit for.
Speaker 1: I'm coming with you on the stupid train, then, because
Speaker 1: I agree with you, I really do. I think the
Speaker 1: Raiders offensive line is subpar, but other than that.
Speaker 2: It's a pretty decent team.
Speaker 1: I mean, Derek Carr is kind of quietly a pretty
Speaker 1: okay decent quarterback in the league. Darren Efficient, thank you
Speaker 1: very much. That's a nice way to put it. Darren
Speaker 1: Waller is a superstar. Obviously, they have the two running
Speaker 1: backs with Josh Jacobs, who again as we record this
Speaker 1: has an illness sounds like you will play tonight, but
Speaker 1: also Kenyan Drake. The receivers are young but emerging with
Speaker 1: Rugs and Brian Edwards.
Speaker 2: So that's there. But you're right, the real thing is
Speaker 2: the Steelers. I mean, their.
Speaker 1: Offensive line looked abismo, as we kind of expected coming
Speaker 1: into that game against the Bills. They really struggle to
Speaker 1: kind of have a cohesive offensive philosophy. So I agree,
Speaker 1: if you're getting that points, what about the total, which
Speaker 1: I have finally found, Ian, don't worry.
Speaker 2: The consentus line is actually forty eight.
Speaker 1: But when I'm looking at the various books, you've got
Speaker 1: mostly a big disparity here, more than I usually see
Speaker 1: bet MGM for example, it's forty seven and a half.
Speaker 1: Fandele it's forty nine and a half. So like the
Speaker 1: consensus is forty eight in between. So do you think
Speaker 1: there's if you're like, let's say you have access to
Speaker 1: one of those books, do you find one of those
Speaker 1: enticing one way or another?
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'd be taking the under for sure. If it's
Speaker 3: going to be in the high forties. I mean, like
Speaker 3: I kind of said the ste I mean, the Steelers
Speaker 3: just stop the Buffalo Bills offense, which we think is
Speaker 3: still one of the best offenses in the NFL. And
Speaker 3: then you got the Steelers offense which can't move the
Speaker 3: ball at all. I mean they needed a block punt
Speaker 3: for a touchdown to win that game. So yeah, I mean,
Speaker 3: I'm some shocked. As in the high forties, I'd be
Speaker 3: taking the under in that for sure.
Speaker 1: I agree with you, and I think this is something
Speaker 1: where you probably want to lock it in out, especially
Speaker 1: if you're like, look, I'm in New Hampshire.
Speaker 2: The only book we have access to his DraftKings, it's
Speaker 2: at forty nine.
Speaker 1: I will be locking it in ordinarily, just because I
Speaker 1: respect you so much, and I'm not going to do
Speaker 1: it while we're podcasting right now, but ordinarily for guests
Speaker 1: that I think lesser of, I would do it actually
Speaker 1: right now, but I want, all right, let's go to
Speaker 1: the Bengals visiting the Bears. The Bears here are laying
Speaker 1: three points in our consensus line, and the over under
Speaker 1: is forty five.
Speaker 2: Any value in either of those numbers, that's tough.
Speaker 3: I think I think that line set right. I mean,
Speaker 3: I'm kind of a Bears hater, to be honest. I
Speaker 3: veta against them quite often last season, especially right after
Speaker 3: they got off of that like five and one start
Speaker 3: or whatever it was. So I think I would have
Speaker 3: to back the Bengals here. Also, I was impressed by
Speaker 3: what I saw from the Bengals in Week one. That
Speaker 3: was one of the bets that I lost. I was
Speaker 3: on the Vikings. I thought the Vikings were going to
Speaker 3: run away with that. I was nervous for Joe Burrow
Speaker 3: coming off that the knee injury because there were some
Speaker 3: reports that he wasn't quite feeling comfortable in training camp.
Speaker 3: But he looked great. He you know, faced the pressure.
Speaker 3: He threw a lot of great footballs. I think I'm
Speaker 3: going to back the Bengals in that one. But that
Speaker 3: line seems just about right. That one. That one's that
Speaker 3: one's gonna be one. I'm gonna have to dive into
Speaker 3: a little bit more. But kind of when you're I mean,
Speaker 3: when you're betting on every single NFL game, you're not
Speaker 3: gonna have a strong feel one or the.
Speaker 2: Other and everything. So it's the best.
Speaker 1: I love that you're like, well, I'm gonna I'm gonna
Speaker 1: have to bet this one, so I'll let you know
Speaker 1: how I feel about it.
Speaker 2: For me, I completely agree with you.
Speaker 1: I think both the total and the spread are just
Speaker 1: right there at a point where that you don't want
Speaker 1: to bet this game. You have to because it's in
Speaker 1: your contract. But still I think that it's a game
Speaker 1: that I want to avoid. Although I will say I
Speaker 1: was really impressed with the Bengals and Burrow. You know,
Speaker 1: I'm obviously also a fantasy guy and I do projections.
Speaker 1: I was very nervous about Joe Burrow and what he
Speaker 1: would look like early in the season, for the mental
Speaker 1: part of it, not the physical parts, and like he'd
Speaker 1: fully recovered, but it's very difficult when.
Speaker 2: You have that injury.
Speaker 1: And that's really what you hearing in camp was that
Speaker 1: he was struggling the mental part of it, and he hung.
Speaker 1: I think he was sacked five times. You wouldn't have
Speaker 1: known it. He didn't look jumpy in the pocket. He
Speaker 1: uncorked some great throws, and Jamar Chase another guy missing
Speaker 1: football for a year. Everybody was kind of like, oh no,
Speaker 1: I'm worried. He looked fantastic too, So I'm definitely more
Speaker 1: optimistic on the team overall. At the same time, three
Speaker 1: points right there is the correct spread. The Rams are
Speaker 1: visiting the Colts, the Rams are favored by four, and
Speaker 1: the total is forty seven and a half Rams.
Speaker 3: I already was high on the Rams heading into this season,
Speaker 3: and then they did nothing but make me even more
Speaker 3: confident in them against the Bears there on Sunday night.
Speaker 3: Matthew Stafford looks like, at least through one week, he
Speaker 3: looks like he's living up to people's expectations. The defense
Speaker 3: is still a dominant unit, maybe not quite as good
Speaker 3: as the defense last year. But then the complete opposite
Speaker 3: was the case for the Colts. Curson Wentz didn't impress
Speaker 3: me whatsoever. Colts offense didn't necessarily look great, didn't look explosive. Yeah,
Speaker 3: I'm definitely that's definitely a good spot for the Rams.
Speaker 3: I think where'd you say that game? Was? That? Is
Speaker 3: that in?
Speaker 2: It's in Indianapolis, in Indianapolis.
Speaker 1: Yeah, so obviously otherwise, yeah, you would expect it to
Speaker 1: be yeah, closer to touch on. I agree with you,
Speaker 1: by the way. So I do think the Cults are
Speaker 1: going to play a little bit better here. I mean,
Speaker 1: remember they had such little time to really practice and work.
Speaker 1: But they really have nothing offensively right now. I mean
Speaker 1: the receivers. I like Michael Pittman Jr. I like Zach Paskal.
Speaker 1: They're certainly not going to be able to do anything
Speaker 1: against this this defense here with the cornerbacks, and then
Speaker 1: you just are you know, Jon Taylor is very good,
Speaker 1: but Niam Hines like it's gimmicky a little bit with
Speaker 1: this offense. And I think you're going to get some
Speaker 1: value right near now early on the RAMS. I think
Speaker 1: you had value in week one as well, which I
Speaker 1: think most better saw. That's why you saw the spread
Speaker 1: rise overall. What about the total? Any feelings on it?
Speaker 1: It is forty seven and a half. I would probably
Speaker 1: lean the under on that one.
Speaker 3: Generally in totals, I'm usually an under guy as it
Speaker 3: is because I always feel like the points that the
Speaker 3: totals are point or two higher than they normally would
Speaker 3: because the public loves betting on overs. I mean who
Speaker 3: who the unders not enjoy.
Speaker 1: Whoa something right as anything?
Speaker 3: Not a fun bet to make, So usually that one,
Speaker 3: especially where it's close, I would lean the under. And yeah,
Speaker 3: I don't know. Obviously the RAMS defense is going to
Speaker 3: be one of the best in the unit and one
Speaker 3: of the best units in the NFL. It's gonna be
Speaker 3: hard for me to take an over in a Rams
Speaker 3: game this year.
Speaker 1: But yeah, I'm I agree with you. I agree with
Speaker 1: you for sure, But for me, it's a little bit
Speaker 1: of a stay away just because I don't know. I mean,
Speaker 1: I could see the Colt Stephens is not bad, but
Speaker 1: you saw Russell Wilson, like I could see the Rams
Speaker 1: by themselves putting up, you know whatever, a thirty spot
Speaker 1: if they absolutely had to.
Speaker 2: Bills visiting the Dolphins.
Speaker 1: The Bills are laying three and a half points and
Speaker 1: the total is forty eight and a half.
Speaker 3: What do you think, UH gonna take the Bills. This
Speaker 3: is a spot where, like I said earlier, I'm trying
Speaker 3: not to react a week overreact to Week one. The
Speaker 3: Bills didn't look great, especially offensively, but I think they
Speaker 3: are still the team that we saw last year. And
Speaker 3: the interesting thing to think about the Miami Dolphins, and
Speaker 3: they were the best spread team last year, but were
Speaker 3: they eleven and five I think in the regular season
Speaker 3: against the spread? And I was on the wrong side
Speaker 3: the large majority of them. And excuse me, they had
Speaker 3: the same kind of oat come in Week one where
Speaker 3: they want and cover the spread. But if you look
Speaker 3: at their defensive numbers, they're giving up yards. But what's
Speaker 3: happening is they're getting timely turnovers at the perfect time,
Speaker 3: and that that's what their whole kind of motive was.
Speaker 3: Last year they led the league in takeaways and turnovers.
Speaker 3: In my opinion, at least, there is at least some
Speaker 3: degree of luck to it. It's not all skill. You
Speaker 3: need the running back to fumble the ball. You need
Speaker 3: the quarterback to you know, miss rita route or coverage
Speaker 3: and throw a bad ball. So if they don't keep
Speaker 3: getting these these kind of takeaways, the Dolphins shouldn't be
Speaker 3: as good as what they are, especially obviously their defense.
Speaker 3: But they keep getting these takeaways. So it's funny to
Speaker 3: see that exact same thing happen in Week one that
Speaker 3: we saw all season last year in the Dolphins. So
Speaker 3: I going to continue fading the Dolphins because, like I said,
Speaker 3: I just think takeaways have a little bit of an
Speaker 3: element of luck, and that defense is giving up yards,
Speaker 3: the offense is and getting a ton of yards, and
Speaker 3: I think the Bills are gonna have a big bounce
Speaker 3: back week, so I'm gonna go with them.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think this is really a Bills statement game
Speaker 1: at this one, because I think right it has to,
Speaker 1: because there are question marks about them because Josh Allen.
Speaker 2: You know, in Fantasy especially.
Speaker 1: We talk about that, like everybody waits for Josh Allen
Speaker 1: to turn back into like the guy who the Bills draft,
Speaker 1: and you're like, just this inaccurate guy, don't know what
Speaker 1: we saw last year. It's eventually things are gonna come back.
Speaker 1: That's not gonna happen. Josh Allen is great. The system
Speaker 1: that they will put in together is great. They're gonna
Speaker 1: be a fantastic team, including this year. There are some
Speaker 1: threes out there. There's actually one two and a half
Speaker 1: out there, which I love. But even with the hook,
Speaker 1: I'm totally fine with that. I'm not really going near
Speaker 1: the spread. It's at forty eight and a half. That
Speaker 1: strikes me as about right for something like that, you know,
Speaker 1: but I do agree with you that even on the road,
Speaker 1: I'm taking the Bills even if you gotta lay the hook.
Speaker 2: How about the Saints visiting the Panthers.
Speaker 1: The Saints are three and a half point favorites, and
Speaker 1: I will get you the total in like two seconds.
Speaker 1: How about the three and a half point favorites for
Speaker 1: the Saints.
Speaker 3: God to take the Saints man. Jameis Winston is my
Speaker 3: preseason bet to win MVP, and he proved proved me
Speaker 3: right a little bit there in Week one. Now, he
Speaker 3: didn't throw over a ton of yards. He's what like
Speaker 3: one hundred and fifty six yards, but somebody still had
Speaker 3: five touchdown passes, which is kind of insane. But I'm not.
Speaker 3: I'm I'm an anti Sam Donald guy. I was. I
Speaker 3: don't understand why the Panthers opted for Sam Donald over
Speaker 3: over Teddy Bridgewater. I thought, I mean, look just look
Speaker 3: at their completion percentage in their career and we'll get
Speaker 3: to Teddy Bridgewater when we talk about the Broncos. But
Speaker 3: not a believer in Sam Donald, it's it's gonna be
Speaker 3: tough for me to ever bet on him. I'm gonna
Speaker 3: take the Saints in this one. I love how Jamis
Speaker 3: Winston looked. He didn't throw any in any interceptions and
Speaker 3: that's that's his key thing. So give me the Saints
Speaker 3: in that one.
Speaker 1: I technically threw an interception that was negated by a
Speaker 1: nonsense penalty, but yes, he looked good.
Speaker 2: The offense look good, I know, officially not I'm just
Speaker 2: teasing you.
Speaker 1: As a Jets fan, there is no greater fader of
Speaker 1: Sam Darnold than myself.
Speaker 2: And again, the one non.
Speaker 1: Totals bet that I gave out on our show on
Speaker 1: Thursday was that I like the Jets getting five and
Speaker 1: a half.
Speaker 2: Now, that was a sweat, a little.
Speaker 1: Bit of a lucky cover, but whatever they covered. I
Speaker 1: do not believe in this Panthers team whatsoever. I do
Speaker 1: absolutely believe.
Speaker 2: In the Saints team.
Speaker 3: Now.
Speaker 1: They are suffering from a few injuries here on the
Speaker 1: defensive side of the ball, so that is something that
Speaker 1: could mess around with it. But I don't really see
Speaker 1: these two teams as in the same class right now.
Speaker 1: Just given what we saw in that game against the
Speaker 1: very good Packers team, I don't think the Packers are done.
Speaker 1: I mean that defense. Again, they have injuries, but they're legitimate.
Speaker 1: And if you're gonna have that defense going up against
Speaker 1: Sam Darnald, especially off his high of his revenge game win,
Speaker 1: I like that. I also kind of lean towards the
Speaker 1: over at forty four and a half. It's a pretty
Speaker 1: low total, not crazy low or anything like that. But
Speaker 1: I do think that the Saints are going to be
Speaker 1: able to score pretty easily on the Panthers, like not
Speaker 1: at will, but certainly they'll be able to put up points.
Speaker 2: And I think they're just enough there.
Speaker 1: I think the Panthers probably only need to put up
Speaker 1: you know, maybe two touchdowns, will probably find their way
Speaker 1: into it, and I think the Saints may go up
Speaker 1: ahead and sort of lead it to like the back
Speaker 1: door over. So for me, I kind of like the
Speaker 1: over under forty four and a half the over, but
Speaker 1: I don't feel like it's something you need to rush
Speaker 1: out and bet you know, I don't expect that line
Speaker 1: to move all that much, you know what I'm saying.
Speaker 3: And I will say one other thing about the Saints.
Speaker 3: Nobody talks about the Saints, at least in this offseas.
Speaker 3: Nobody really talk about how good their defense was, like
Speaker 3: they I think they were a third in scoring last year.
Speaker 3: The defense was, but that's not a thing that's that's
Speaker 3: ever really brought up. And then you saw that defense
Speaker 3: against the Packers there in Week one, So Saints continue
Speaker 3: to be underrated.
Speaker 2: I think, yep, all right, you mentioned the Broncos. Let's
Speaker 2: go to them. They are visiting the Jaguars.
Speaker 1: The Jaguars are getting six points from the Broncos here
Speaker 1: and the total is forty five and a half.
Speaker 2: What do you think?
Speaker 3: I listen, I'm not a big trends guy when it
Speaker 3: comes to, oh, this team's you know, ten and two
Speaker 3: against the spread in this spot. But there's one trend
Speaker 3: that I'm obsessed with that I have to continue betting on,
Speaker 3: and it is Teddy Bridgewater. Teddy covers, man. I don't
Speaker 3: have is against the spread record in front of me,
Speaker 3: but I think it was seventy two percent or seventy
Speaker 3: five percent hitting in the season. Then he just covered
Speaker 3: in Week one. He's a sports betters. He should be
Speaker 3: in the Sports Betting Hall of Fame if that ever exists.
Speaker 3: He needs to be eased that whole room dedicated to himself. So,
Speaker 3: like I said, I'm not usually big trends guy, more
Speaker 3: of a stats guy, but I'm gonna keep riding my guy,
Speaker 3: Teddy Bridgewater. Man, I'll take the Broncos.
Speaker 1: And I think if you do like him, you should
Speaker 1: probably bet him now because I think that if anything,
Speaker 1: this spread rises, right, like, if anything, the public is like,
Speaker 1: I'm not betting on the Jaguars, like give you the Broncos,
Speaker 1: like Teddy whatever, and it rises closer to a touchdown,
Speaker 1: So I think you do want it now when it's
Speaker 1: blows touch on, You're not going to miss out on
Speaker 1: anything if you bet it. It's not like it's going
Speaker 1: to drop to you know, for or anything like that,
Speaker 1: So you're not missing anything by doing it now. Any
Speaker 1: any lean at all on the total forty five and
Speaker 1: a half probably under.
Speaker 3: I mean Trevor Lawrence struggled against the Texans defense, which
Speaker 3: is supposed to be one of the worst defense in
Speaker 3: the NFL, and now he's going up against a very
Speaker 3: very good, probably underrated defense in the Broncos. And the
Speaker 3: Broncos offense, as much as I like Teddy Bridgewater, is
Speaker 3: not exactly an explosive, high scoring offense. It's efficient. He
Speaker 3: doesn't really turn the ball over. So yeah, I would
Speaker 3: probably go under on that total for sure, all right.
Speaker 1: Next one, both teams winning in Week one, the forty
Speaker 1: nine Ers visiting the Eagles. The forty nine Ers are
Speaker 1: favored by three and a half points and the total
Speaker 1: is fifty. Obviously, the forty nine Ers suffered a few
Speaker 1: injuries with Brett, and they've got Mostart who's now going
Speaker 1: to be out eight weeks, so they're a little banged
Speaker 1: up here. Meanwhile, Jalen Hurts was super impressive obviously in
Speaker 1: that opening win.
Speaker 2: What do you think?
Speaker 3: Yeah, heading in the season, I thought Jalen Hurts is
Speaker 3: one of the more underrated quarterbacks. I didn't think he
Speaker 3: really got a fair shot. Last year started late when
Speaker 3: the team had basically already given up on the season.
Speaker 3: They're getting three and a half points in the spot.
Speaker 3: And what happened with the forty nine Ers defense. This
Speaker 3: is supposed to be one of the best defenses in
Speaker 3: the NFL and they just allowed the Detroit Lions, led
Speaker 3: by Jared Goff to put up like four hundred and
Speaker 3: thirty yards against them. What's going on in the forty
Speaker 3: nine Ers defense? Now? To be fair, the majority of
Speaker 3: the points and the arrows came late in the game
Speaker 3: when basically the game was at least supposed to be
Speaker 3: over or felt like it was over. So maybe they
Speaker 3: are as good as they're supposed to be. But I'll
Speaker 3: take the Eagles getting three and a half points at home.
Speaker 3: It's over. It's just over that magic number of three
Speaker 3: that obviously, if you're betting on football, you know that
Speaker 3: I'll take the home team in the points, so.
Speaker 2: It's all three and a half.
Speaker 1: I mean, I like a home dog just generally that
Speaker 1: piques my interest a little bit. But I think you
Speaker 1: might get a little bit of the Eagles being undervalued
Speaker 1: early in the season. I think, you know, betters are
Speaker 1: probably willing maybe books too, as books look to sharpen
Speaker 1: their their models and their lines.
Speaker 2: Like I don't think they fully figured out exactly.
Speaker 1: And you know, I joked about it with our last
Speaker 1: gut Sewan because were both joking about how we had
Speaker 1: Nick Sirianni Coach of the Year tickets at like thirty
Speaker 1: five to one or forty to one. And part of
Speaker 1: it was they designed this entire offense. They had the
Speaker 1: whole offseason to design an offense. Rumors aside about the
Speaker 1: Shawn Watson around Jalen Hurts and his skill set. He
Speaker 1: has some playmakers and some receivers right now, because again
Speaker 1: he has Devonte Smith, who's really good. Rager, Jalen Rager
Speaker 1: looks pretty good. You've got Dallas Goddard still there. The
Speaker 1: offensive line is healthy. It's going to make a big difference.
Speaker 1: And again the forty nine are suffered a bunch of injuries.
Speaker 1: If you're giving me the hook with the team at home,
Speaker 1: I am more than.
Speaker 2: Willing to take it.
Speaker 1: How about is another big spread that we talked about.
Speaker 1: The Bucks are laying twelve and a half at home
Speaker 1: to the Falcons.
Speaker 2: The totals fifty two.
Speaker 3: I'm a Falcons fan, man, they just they're bad. They're
Speaker 3: so bad, man, I have to take the Buccaneers in
Speaker 3: this spot. Man, I was looking obviously as a Falcons
Speaker 3: fan when no matter how a game goes on, that
Speaker 3: that's the game where I'm going to be focused on
Speaker 3: more afterwards as far as looking at what happened in
Speaker 3: that game went right, what went wrong? Nothing went right
Speaker 3: for the Falcons. They have an offensive lineman I'm blanking
Speaker 3: on the name, but then an offensive lineman who would
Speaker 3: like a PFF ranking of like one point nine to
Speaker 3: eight or something like that, which is Matt Ryan. Apparently
Speaker 3: wasn't responsible for any of the hits that he took
Speaker 3: or any sacks that he took. Their offensive line is terrible,
Speaker 3: and when he looked on the defense side, they have
Speaker 3: one good cornerback in aj Terrell. The other guy just stinks,
Speaker 3: and the Eagles targeted in the whole game, that's where
Speaker 3: they got the large majority of the yards. So if
Speaker 3: Jalen Hurts can pick apart your defense, what is Tom
Speaker 3: Brady gonna do? And the Super Bowl defending champion Damn
Speaker 3: Bay Buccaneers. So I mean, if the Falcons can't score
Speaker 3: a touchdown on the Eagles, what are they going to
Speaker 3: do against this Buccaneers? If they can't stop Jalen Hurts
Speaker 3: and the Eagles, what are they going to do against
Speaker 3: the Buccaneers? Once again, I hate betting big favorites in
Speaker 3: the NFL, especially when it comes to divisional opponents, because
Speaker 3: they typically know we should be a little bit better. Yep,
Speaker 3: But I can't bettle my Falcons. Man. They might be
Speaker 3: the worst team in the NFL this year.
Speaker 1: This was one of the bigger lines that I'm okay
Speaker 1: with like you, because I agree there's not that you
Speaker 1: can't watch that game, the Eagles against the Falcons and
Speaker 1: think that anything remotely optimistic about what we saw on
Speaker 1: either side of the ball.
Speaker 2: You're absolutely right.
Speaker 1: Now you've got the Bucks, they're coming off, they're rested, right,
Speaker 1: They've got.
Speaker 2: The Mini Bay here.
Speaker 1: The opening day, you know what they can do offensively,
Speaker 1: like whatever they want, and their defense was probably a
Speaker 1: little pissed off because they allowed the Cowboys to kind
Speaker 1: of Dak Prescott to throw for over four hundred yards.
Speaker 2: So I'm in agreement with you. I would take this
Speaker 2: at twelve and a half right now.
Speaker 1: Again, I don't think you have any real chance of
Speaker 1: losing value if you bet it. Now, I think of
Speaker 1: anything you could lose value if you don't bet it.
Speaker 1: The total at fifty two, I'm probably just staying away
Speaker 1: from because I have no sense of if the Falcons
Speaker 1: are going to be able to score at all or not,
Speaker 1: or whether we saw like, oh god, they're going to
Speaker 1: be a team that's going to put up, you know,
Speaker 1: six ten points a game. So for me, I'm staying
Speaker 1: away from the total personally.
Speaker 3: But themselves, Bucks might score, that's true for themselves.
Speaker 2: You want over, then you want to go over with yeah?
Speaker 3: Yeah, all right, there we go.
Speaker 2: Go for the over. Right, there be a public root
Speaker 2: for their root for scoring.
Speaker 1: All right, Let's go to the Vikings visiting the Cardinals.
Speaker 1: The Cardinals are laying four and a half points, and
Speaker 1: the total is at fifty one. Obviously incredibly impressive opening
Speaker 1: day performance by the car Knows, who looked like world
Speaker 1: beaters both offensively and defensively. You mentioned the Vikings big
Speaker 1: disappointment expected them to be able to beat the Bengals.
Speaker 2: They didn't. But what do you think here? Fifty one
Speaker 2: for the total and four and a half is the spread.
Speaker 3: This one's a tough one. So the Cardinals were actually
Speaker 3: my money line bet in week one, so I cashed
Speaker 3: on them. But then the Vikings were one of my
Speaker 3: favorite picks, if not like a top three favorite pick
Speaker 3: for me in Week one because I thought the Vikings
Speaker 3: were gonna have a big bounce back season. They had
Speaker 3: a lot of injuries on defense last year. I thought
Speaker 3: I was expecting so much more, especially with Dalvin Cooks.
Speaker 3: And now I'm kind of torn, like do I stick
Speaker 3: to that take? Like do I'm trying not to overreact
Speaker 3: to week one? But the Vikings did not really look
Speaker 3: great in Week one, so this might be the toughest
Speaker 3: game on the board to bet for me this week.
Speaker 3: I think I'm just going to I think I'm gonna
Speaker 3: plug my nose and take the Vikings in the points here.
Speaker 3: I think I'm going to try not to overreact to that,
Speaker 3: you know, subpower performance against the Bengals, maybe the Cardinals.
Speaker 3: I listen, I what faded the car or I faded
Speaker 3: the Titans with the Cardinals money line because I think
Speaker 3: the Titans are way worse than what the record was
Speaker 3: last year. They had like a bottom three, bottom four defense.
Speaker 3: I do think the Vikings defense is better than Titans.
Speaker 3: Hopefully they can slow down the Cardinals offense a little bit.
Speaker 3: I hate to bet, but I'm thinking to plug my
Speaker 3: nose and take the Vikings in the points.
Speaker 1: So I'm not getting anywhere near to this game, but
Speaker 1: I will say that if I did. But if I did,
Speaker 1: I do think that this strikes me as something where
Speaker 1: the public is just going to be all over the
Speaker 1: Cardinals because of what.
Speaker 2: We saw, and the sharp money is going to flood.
Speaker 1: In on the Vikings because they know that the Vikings
Speaker 1: aren't as bad as what we saw last week and
Speaker 1: the Cardinals aren't as good.
Speaker 2: And again, the big thing we didn't nobody really.
Speaker 1: Talked about this, at least I didn't hear about it,
Speaker 1: and I didn't really think about it, especially from a
Speaker 1: betting or fantasy perspective, is just how little time the
Speaker 1: Titans had to become a cohesive unit given the COVID
Speaker 1: stuff that they dealt with, like a real legit outbreak,
Speaker 1: their coach, their quarterback, they had tons of stuff. I
Speaker 1: just feel like that game, I'm throwing it entirely out
Speaker 1: in my mind for the Titan.
Speaker 2: But Cardinals did look good.
Speaker 1: And it takes some major, you know, strength in your
Speaker 1: stomach to be able to bet on the Vikings. But
Speaker 1: I do agree if I were going to place a
Speaker 1: bet on this game, which I am not, I do
Speaker 1: think that the Vikings are probably sid And again, this
Speaker 1: is something where I think you don't have to rush in.
Speaker 1: I do see a couple of three and a halfs
Speaker 1: out there. My guess is it's gonna climb, because again
Speaker 1: I think you're going to see a lot of public
Speaker 1: money at that very least come in on the Cardinals.
Speaker 1: How about the Chargers laying three to the Cowboys in
Speaker 1: Los Angeles with a total just fifty five, just fifty
Speaker 1: five for the total? What do you think here that
Speaker 1: that line?
Speaker 3: Yeah, the total actually moved quick. I think it opened
Speaker 3: up like fifty one or fifty two. I think it's
Speaker 3: fifty too. It opened up so already shot up another
Speaker 3: tough game, man, because these the Cowboys have one of
Speaker 3: the best offenses in the NFL and might maybe the
Speaker 3: worst defense in the NFL. So, like, are either like,
Speaker 3: is the defense gonna be all step up at all
Speaker 3: in this game? Or is the offense going to take
Speaker 3: a step back at all in this game? I think
Speaker 3: I'm going to take the Cowboys in this one. I
Speaker 3: believe in Dak Prescott. Iiman he torched that that that
Speaker 3: Buccaneers defense, which is a very good defensive unit. Last week,
Speaker 3: I didn't love what I saw from the Chargers offense,
Speaker 3: but obviously they're going up against the Washington defense that's
Speaker 3: that's one of the best in the league. Another tough
Speaker 3: game to call. I'll take the Cowboys.
Speaker 2: So but tough.
Speaker 1: Do you think this is where the line ends up
Speaker 1: at three or do you think it moves one way
Speaker 1: or the other throughout the week.
Speaker 3: I don't think there's gonna be much movement. I agree,
Speaker 3: at least my My general feeling right now is this
Speaker 3: is one that people are kind of torn on. They're
Speaker 3: a little split. And when you get that, I mean,
Speaker 3: it's not like the Cardinals game where I where where
Speaker 3: we imagine a ton of money is gonna come in
Speaker 3: on the Cardinals. I think people are kind of split
Speaker 3: because I don't think everyone really knows what to do
Speaker 3: with the Cowboys yet either.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree. I think it's probably gonna land here
Speaker 1: at three. I think you're gonna get money on both sides.
Speaker 1: And with the total, Ian, I mean, it's fifty five,
Speaker 1: but I can't take the under on it. Like I
Speaker 1: recognize how insane that total is. I completely understand that's
Speaker 1: a banana's total, and I can't. I can't go. I'm
Speaker 1: not gonna take the over. I think I'm just staying
Speaker 1: away from the total.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't think I can. Yeah, I can't take
Speaker 3: it undering a Cowboys game. I'm not subjecting myself to
Speaker 3: that kind of torture. That is fair.
Speaker 2: I like it. I like it.
Speaker 1: Seahawks at Homeling five and a half to the Titans,
Speaker 1: who are obviously coming off a little bit of a
Speaker 1: lacking and the total at fifty four, what do you think?
Speaker 3: Yeah, Seahawks, I'm gonna continue to fade the Titans, Like
Speaker 3: I said, they were at eleven to five team last year.
Speaker 3: I think it's to be eleven and five with so
Speaker 3: if I'm correct, They're twenty eight or twenty ninth in
Speaker 3: opponent yards per game last season. The only teams that
Speaker 3: were worse were the Lions, Jaguars, and Texans, and that's
Speaker 3: not good. I don't know how a team can get
Speaker 3: to eleven and five with that kind of defense. And
Speaker 3: they did make some improvements in the offseason. I don't
Speaker 3: think it was enough, though, Especially their passing defense is
Speaker 3: not good. We saw what Kyler Murray did through the
Speaker 3: air last week, and now you got Russell Wilson against them,
Speaker 3: so I mean, good luck with that. So I'm going
Speaker 3: to take the Seahawks in this one. I'm going to
Speaker 3: keep fading the Titans until I think the lines are
Speaker 3: set at a more appropriate number for how I kind
Speaker 3: of evaluate them, and right now they shouldn't like I would.
Speaker 3: I would set the Seahawks probably at six points right now.
Speaker 1: Okay, Yeah, I don't want it. I just want to
Speaker 1: stay away from this one. I see everything you're saying.
Speaker 1: I'm not fading the Titans nearly as much as you are.
Speaker 1: I understand why you are, and I think the Seahawks
Speaker 1: are going to do what they did last year, which
Speaker 1: has come out really hot, especially offensively before they kind
Speaker 1: of turtle up a little bit because of they have
Speaker 1: one bad game or something like that.
Speaker 2: But still, I could also see.
Speaker 1: A scenario where the Titans and Mike Rabel, who I
Speaker 1: respect a ton as a coach, kind of lays into
Speaker 1: them and they come out much sharper here. The total also, like,
Speaker 1: I'd love to go over on this because I think
Speaker 1: there's gonna be a ton of scoring here. I don't
Speaker 1: think the Seahawks defense is good enough to shut down
Speaker 1: the Titans. With an extra week here to get better,
Speaker 1: and I think the Seahawks can pretty much score it will.
Speaker 1: But at fifty four, man, I just don't. I don't
Speaker 1: think I can go near it. It's not a total
Speaker 1: that I want to go near.
Speaker 2: How about you?
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think I would. I think I would take
Speaker 3: the under. Obviously, we know the Titans love to run
Speaker 3: the ball, and when you run the ball, I mean
Speaker 3: obviously we all know the clock keeps going less time
Speaker 3: on the clock, less time for points. That's tough, Yeah,
Speaker 3: because of the Titans defense is it's kind of tough
Speaker 3: to bet on under with the Titans defense, But I
Speaker 3: think I'd go.
Speaker 1: Under, all right, Chiefs visiting the Ravens the game we
Speaker 1: all deserve. Again, we have not seen the Ravens yet.
Speaker 1: Hopefully they look like what we expected them to look.
Speaker 1: They've dealt with several injuries coming in. But as of
Speaker 1: right now, the Chiefs are favored by three and the
Speaker 1: total is at fifty five and a half. These totals
Speaker 1: man just nonsensical almost. By the way, one of my
Speaker 1: favorite memories, I think from last year is when the
Speaker 1: Ravens were favored against the Chiefs. I'm pretty sure that
Speaker 1: was last year, and I remember taking Patrick Mahomes as
Speaker 1: a dog and just feeling like it was like the dumbest,
Speaker 1: like goofy. It's like when you, like, you know, win
Speaker 1: the lottery or something like that. It was so ridiculous.
Speaker 1: Here not a dog obviously laying three in Baltimore.
Speaker 2: What do you think?
Speaker 3: Yeah, once again, a little tough because we haven't seen
Speaker 3: the Ravens yet. But I mean, got to take the Chiefs, man,
Speaker 3: I mean, I say, got to take the Chiefs. But
Speaker 3: then again, I mean the Chiefs have not been good
Speaker 3: covering the spread. They didn't cover the spread in week
Speaker 3: when either but I was on the Browns. But anytime
Speaker 3: you can get the Chiefs at this low of a number.
Speaker 3: I think you have to take them. Where you want
Speaker 3: to avoid the Chiefs is when you get up closer
Speaker 3: to a touchdown because it's tough to win football games
Speaker 3: by more than a single score. But I think the
Speaker 3: Ravens might regress a little bit this year. I'm very
Speaker 3: interesting to see and hopefully we get a little bit
Speaker 3: of a sense of it tonight. What Lamar Jackson is
Speaker 3: going to be like because he took a little bit
Speaker 3: of a step back last year. So is he going
Speaker 3: to return to MVP form or is he going to
Speaker 3: look more like he did last year? So this is
Speaker 3: one that's it's very tough to call without seeing one
Speaker 3: of the two teams involved. Like I feel like I
Speaker 3: have a better sense of the Raiders even though I
Speaker 3: haven't seen them this year. Where the Ravens, I really
Speaker 3: want to see them, get a sense for them. And also,
Speaker 3: obviously we all know how banged up their backfield is.
Speaker 3: I had my phone on the other day. I thought
Speaker 3: I might get a call from the Ravens to get
Speaker 3: something because there's.
Speaker 2: No don't worry get up there.
Speaker 3: So I got it back the Chiefs and I would guess.
Speaker 3: My guess would be I mean, unless the Ravens blow
Speaker 3: up the Raiders tonight. Now I might look stupid in
Speaker 3: hindsight saying this, but I think the spreadsbably going to
Speaker 3: get bigger after this game.
Speaker 2: After this game, yeah, I think that's right.
Speaker 1: So again, if you're listening to it, people are probably
Speaker 1: listening to this after the game is over anyway, so
Speaker 1: maybe the line has already moved. It is three, and
Speaker 1: it's three everywhere, like, there's no non threes that I'm
Speaker 1: looking at in the market, because I think that that
Speaker 1: is probably the right line necessarily.
Speaker 2: But I would take the Chiefs if it gets over
Speaker 2: a field goal.
Speaker 1: I do worry a little bit, because you're right, the
Speaker 1: Chiefs are a phenomenal team, but not great at covering
Speaker 1: the spread necessarily. If it's at three, I feel fine
Speaker 1: because I really do feel confident that a the Chiefs
Speaker 1: are going to win this game again without having seen
Speaker 1: this go, and second that it's going to be by
Speaker 1: at least a field goal. So I feel comfortable at three.
Speaker 1: When it gets three and a half, the total is bananas.
Speaker 1: I'm not even like, I'm just not going near fifty
Speaker 1: five and a half points. Bread, I get it. Patrick,
Speaker 1: The Chiefs can do that by themselves if they really
Speaker 1: had to. But I'm just staying away. Last one here,
Speaker 1: a really really really angry Packers team at home on
Speaker 1: Monday Night football against the Lions. Laying ten and a
Speaker 1: half points there, Get sure that hook is there, because
Speaker 1: they're going to make you If you want the Packers,
Speaker 1: they're going to make you mad. And total of forty
Speaker 1: eight and a half points.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm realizing now that I like three double digit
Speaker 3: favorites in the NFL and that's.
Speaker 2: Not What would the spread have to be for you
Speaker 2: to not take the Packers in this game? And that's
Speaker 2: the question.
Speaker 3: I think it'd have to be two touchdowns. I think
Speaker 3: it would have to be. I mean, but then again,
Speaker 3: the Lions put up four hundred and thirty yards last week,
Speaker 3: so maybe the Lions aren't as bad as everyone thinks.
Speaker 3: Maybe Dan Campbell's you know, kind of raw raw, you know, motivation,
Speaker 3: kind of tactics is kind of working for the Lions.
Speaker 3: So it's hard to really argue too much against the
Speaker 3: Lions right now. But yeah, the Packers, I would think,
Speaker 3: are angry. Now. I'm not never gonna handicap too much
Speaker 3: based on what I assume someone's emotions are going to
Speaker 3: be heading into a game, but they're either the number
Speaker 3: one or number two scoring offense last year, they're going
Speaker 3: up against what it's supposed well, they are the bad
Speaker 3: defense because even though that game was closed to put
Speaker 3: up a ton of points on them, correct, the green
Speaker 3: Bay green Bay will score. It's is whether or not
Speaker 3: are the lines going to be able to keep it
Speaker 3: close enough during the game. So yeah, I will back
Speaker 3: the Packers in this one, but I might need it.
Speaker 3: I need it, might need to reevaluate some of my
Speaker 3: pass picks because it could take it three double edgit
Speaker 3: favorites makes me worry, but I like that freedom, so
Speaker 3: I'll probably stick with them.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that the Packers either, ID saide. Oh
Speaker 1: look see, this is a New York experience for you.
Speaker 1: If everyone can hear that in the background, Ian has
Speaker 1: moved to New York. It's fine, You're fine. They're not
Speaker 1: there for you, I promise. Yeah, I missed my old sounds.
Speaker 2: Of New York anyway.
Speaker 1: Uh yeah, I agree with you that even at ten
Speaker 1: and a half, I leaned towards the Packers. I'm actually
Speaker 1: a little more excited about the total because I do
Speaker 1: think that the Packers. First of all, the Lions have
Speaker 1: terrible defense. I have a terrible secondary, and Jeff Okuda
Speaker 1: now has I think an achilles injury. So a bad
Speaker 1: secondary just gets worse. I think the Packers are going
Speaker 1: to put up monstrous amount of points in this game.
Speaker 1: I think it's gonna be ton and I think that
Speaker 1: the Lions, I think they'll probably be able to do
Speaker 1: close not what they did last time, but in terms
Speaker 1: of the back door sort of like this game is over,
Speaker 1: the Packers don't want to get injured on defense, They're
Speaker 1: gonna step back a little bit.
Speaker 2: There's gonna be forty five thousand.
Speaker 1: Jump offs to Jamal Williams and DeAndre Swift and they'll
Speaker 1: be able to get there.
Speaker 2: So that actually is a number that I would bet.
Speaker 1: I don't think that it's necessarily going to climb throughout
Speaker 1: the year, like I don't think throughout the week. I
Speaker 1: don't think we're getting a fifty or fifty one. But
Speaker 1: at the same time, forty eight and a half I
Speaker 1: kind of lean the over because I view a lot
Speaker 1: of points.
Speaker 2: Coming in this game. What do you think of that?
Speaker 3: Yeah, give me the over. I forevery I agree with
Speaker 3: every single point you had about the over.
Speaker 2: I love it. That's it.
Speaker 1: Those are all the games. Man, I'm so happy football
Speaker 1: is back. We are done recording this before we get
Speaker 1: to look idiotic after, you know, whatever happens with the
Speaker 1: Raiders in the Ravens game. But Ian, you have been
Speaker 1: a guest on the show several times. It is always
Speaker 1: a pleasure to have you. I really appreciate it. Tell
Speaker 1: everybody where they can find you and your work.
Speaker 3: Yeah. Absolutely, the best place is always a Twitter. As
Speaker 3: you mentioned at the start of the show, though there
Speaker 3: Ian mac Bett's I A I N M A C
Speaker 3: B E T s my parents out of the thrown
Speaker 3: extra eye into my name to make my life difficult.
Speaker 3: Also check out bet Sided and the Bacon Bets podcast
Speaker 3: comes out Thursday, and that's when I give my pick.
Speaker 3: I call it the Road to two seventy two this
Speaker 3: year because I give a pick for every single all
Speaker 3: two hundred and seventy two NFL games. So keep an
Speaker 3: eye out for that.
Speaker 2: I mean I really look forward.
Speaker 1: I did see that you were doing that, because yeah,
Speaker 1: I think you have it pinned your Twitter profile.
Speaker 2: But man, God bless you good luck with it.
Speaker 1: I hope you again have a profitable year, because that
Speaker 1: is not easy anyway. We will be back later in
Speaker 1: the week Joe and Joe, Piece of P and Scott
Speaker 1: Bogmhen are going to do the college Football Breakdown, and
Speaker 1: then I'll be back on Thursday with another guest talking
Speaker 1: about our best bets for Week two.
Speaker 2: Of the NFL season.
Speaker 1: Thanks for tuning in, everybody, and I'll talk to you
Speaker 1: again in a couple of days.