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Speaker 1: Hey everybody, Welcome back to the Betting Pros Podcast, brought

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Speaker 1: to you by bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harris.

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Speaker 1: Find me on Twitter at Dan Harris. Eighty.

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Speaker 2: Week one is almost in the books.

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Speaker 1: We still have one game left tonight, but it is

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Speaker 1: already time to start looking ahead at the lines for

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Speaker 1: week two to find out if there is any value,

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Speaker 1: if we expect any movement, all that good stuff. To

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Speaker 1: do that with me is Ian McMillan from bet Sided.

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Speaker 1: He's on Twitter at Ian mac betts. And that's Ai

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Speaker 1: and Ian. Thank you for joining me.

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Speaker 2: How you doing.

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Speaker 3: I'm doing well, man, Thanks for having me.

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Speaker 2: Did you have a good beat on week one?

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Speaker 1: Because I felt like there were some games that I

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Speaker 1: saw really clearly in others I was just way off on.

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Speaker 3: I did very well in Week one. I went twelve

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Speaker 3: and three. I bet on every single game. I had

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Speaker 3: two hundred and seventy two games this year. I'm betting

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Speaker 3: on every single one. I did the same thing last season,

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Speaker 3: and I'm on pace now to have easily my best

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Speaker 3: week I've ever had, so twelve and three heading into

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Speaker 3: Monday night football, so I've been lucky.

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Speaker 2: How did all right? First of all, for the record.

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Speaker 2: Who do you have tonight?

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Speaker 3: I got the Raiders to cover tonight?

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Speaker 2: Okay, is it four or four and a half when

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Speaker 2: you had it?

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Speaker 3: I think I have it at four.

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Speaker 2: Okay. How did you do last year in the content?

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Speaker 2: In your betting every game?

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Speaker 3: I finished profitable, which is my goal because obviously, if

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Speaker 3: you're betting on every single game for an entire NFL season,

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Speaker 3: then that was kind of my goal was just to

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Speaker 3: kind of finish in the black. So I don't remember

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Speaker 3: my exact record, but I finished around up five and

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Speaker 3: a half units. I think it was all spreads and totals,

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Speaker 3: and then once a week I do one money line

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Speaker 3: underdog a week as well.

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Speaker 2: So I love it all right, well, well done, well good.

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Speaker 1: Leave review for the show on Apple Podcasts or cast box,

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Speaker 1: and then go to bettingpros dot com slash review. Okay,

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Speaker 1: be a subscriber to a hour YouTube channel YouTube dot

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Speaker 1: com slash Betting Pros. We do a lot of good

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Speaker 1: We also have a live stream from eleven am to

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Speaker 1: twelve pm on Sunday mornings Eastern where we break down

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Speaker 1: the entire slate and I give out my player prompts.

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Speaker 1: All right, Ian, better of every NFL game? Are you

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Speaker 1: ready for an early look at Week two?

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Speaker 2: Lines.

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Speaker 3: Absolutely very exciting. Let's get into it.

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Speaker 2: I'm so excited. I love it.

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Speaker 1: Okay, So I'm going to be using the consensus lines

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Speaker 1: over at bettingpros dot com that looks at a bunch

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Speaker 1: of different books, but obviously we will look around and

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Speaker 1: see whether or not any individual book is offering anything

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Speaker 1: that might be a little more favorable or anything like that.

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Speaker 1: So let's start with the Thursday night game, and that

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Speaker 1: is the Giants of visiting Washington and taking on the

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Speaker 1: Washington football team. Consensus line right now Betting Pros is

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Speaker 1: Washington laying three and a half points and the over

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Speaker 1: under a minuscule forty one points.

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Speaker 2: How do you see this game?

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Speaker 3: I mean, we're starting off right in Week two with

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Speaker 3: just a classic Thursday night football game between two teams

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Speaker 3: that just stinks. So, I mean that's a pretty low total.

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Speaker 3: My initial thought would have been to go with the under,

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Speaker 3: but I think I'm going to back the Giants on

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Speaker 3: this one. I think they had kind of a bad

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Speaker 3: showing in Week one. Now Washington that was actually on Washington.

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Speaker 3: That was one of the few picks I lost last week.

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Speaker 3: So maybe I'm just a little bit of an anti

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Speaker 3: Washington buyas. I'm a little mad at them a little bit,

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Speaker 3: but I think the Giants are better than what they

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Speaker 3: showed in Week one. My issue with the Giants is

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Speaker 3: they just don't have an offensive line. I hate that

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Speaker 3: these teams that go up and pick up all these

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Speaker 3: like wide receivers and these finesse positions and don't build

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Speaker 3: the offensive line. So their offensive line is probably gonna

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Speaker 3: have issues against his Washington defensive line. But I don't know, man,

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Speaker 3: I'm trying not to overreact to Week one results where

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Speaker 3: the Giants looked really bad. I think that's what week

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Speaker 3: two is really all about, trying not to overreact to

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Speaker 3: week one results. So I'm probably gonna take a lot

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Speaker 3: of underdogs in week two. So I'm gonna start off

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Speaker 3: with the Giants on Thursday night.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's really tough.

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Speaker 1: Out of curiosity, do you what do you think the

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Speaker 1: impact is of the fact that Ryan Fitzpatrick obviously suffered

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Speaker 1: that hip this location, he's out, it's gonna be Taylor Heineke.

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Speaker 2: Do you think that helps the over helps the under or.

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Speaker 3: What I mean, it certainly has to help the under

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Speaker 3: I mean, if there's one thing about Fitzpatrick that he

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Speaker 3: can do, and that's that's throw touchdowns. Now, sometimes he

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Speaker 3: throwze five interceptions to the five touchdowns, but usually those

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Speaker 3: interceptions then turn into points for the other team, which

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Speaker 3: then helped the over as well. So I mean, I

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Speaker 3: would guess this total would be would be significantly higher,

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Speaker 3: probably five or six points higher if Fitzpatrick was playing out.

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Speaker 2: You think it may it moved that much.

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Speaker 1: See, and this is actually I wish I could have

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Speaker 1: checked it out before we recorded. I actually don't know

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Speaker 1: if it moved. Do you ever do you take out

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Speaker 1: like a look aheadline or when you make your bets

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Speaker 1: on every game? Do you wait until basically you have

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Speaker 1: all the information possible.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, well, I place my bets because so I record

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Speaker 3: my podcast, the Bacon Bets Podcast Wednesday night. So right

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Speaker 3: before I record, that's when I lock in my bettcha

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Speaker 3: because that I know, I'm kind of at the mercy

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Speaker 3: of those Wednesday Night lines, So I do. I try

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Speaker 3: not to look too far ahead, but I did not

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Speaker 3: see what the total was on the look aheadlines. Would

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Speaker 3: have been.

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Speaker 1: Interesting though, right, And again, realistically that's that's not a

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Speaker 1: huge deal necessarily because I don't really finalize it until

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Speaker 1: obviously the end of the previous week. But interesting because

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Speaker 1: I don't I don't I get that fits helps it

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Speaker 1: leans towards the over, But I think that big a move.

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Speaker 1: That'd be a pretty big move. Heine gets very capable.

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Speaker 1: I think for me, I see it sort of the

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Speaker 1: way you do. I mean the under obviously hitting the

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Speaker 1: Broncos in the Broncos Giants game, but I don't really

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Speaker 1: think I could go anywhere near the total in this game.

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Speaker 1: But with the spread, if you're giving me the hook

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Speaker 1: with the extra five, you know, half a point, I'm.

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Speaker 2: Probably taking it.

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Speaker 1: There are threes out there, by the way I FanDuel,

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Speaker 1: there's threes so that I don't really like. But if

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Speaker 1: you give me the hook, I probably will go there.

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Speaker 1: How about the absolutely dominant Houston Texans going to Cleveland

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Speaker 1: to take on the Browns. The Browns are laying a

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Speaker 1: minuscule twelve and a half points.

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Speaker 2: The over under is forty eight. What do you think?

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Speaker 3: This one's tough? Man, These big Week two spreads and

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Speaker 3: my biggest issue, and I'm probably gonna go with the

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Speaker 3: Browns here. I haven't finalized it yet, even though it's

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Speaker 3: a big spread and my big thing is the Texans

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Speaker 3: run defense last year one of the worst run defense.

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Speaker 3: I think it might have been the worst. I think

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Speaker 3: them in the Bengals were the two worst run defenses

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Speaker 3: in the NFL last year. And then we obviously know

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Speaker 3: that's exactly what the Cleveland Browns do really well is

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Speaker 3: just pound the rock. I think the Browns are the

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Speaker 3: best offensive line in the NFL. I think Nick Chubb

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Speaker 3: might be the best running back in the NFL. I

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Speaker 3: would say he is. I would go on the limb

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Speaker 3: and say Nick Chubb is. I know a lot of

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Speaker 3: people would always say Derrick Henry Christian McCaffrey. I love

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Speaker 3: Nick Chubb. I think he's gonna have a big year.

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Speaker 3: Big spread though, man, and I hate taking double digit

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Speaker 3: favorites in the NFL, but and there's a couple of

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Speaker 3: them this week, I might have to, So right now

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Speaker 3: I'm gonna lean Browns. But it's this one's tough, man,

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Speaker 3: This one's tough because the thing about the Texans they

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Speaker 3: have veterans, they have guys who kind of know the sport.

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Speaker 3: It's not a young team, which isn't good for them

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Speaker 3: long term. But they're gonna be able to win a

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Speaker 3: couple of games this year. I think because of that

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Speaker 3: veteran presence on that team, so tough one. I'm gonna

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Speaker 3: take the.

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Speaker 2: Browns well Tarat Taylor.

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Speaker 1: I mean, he's a professional quarterback, right, He's going to

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Speaker 1: keep them stther than there. Let me ask you something, man,

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Speaker 1: Am I crazy or I don't remember? Up until three

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Speaker 1: years ago, maybe seeing just these giant line I mean,

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Speaker 1: twelve and a half's not insane, like not like when

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Speaker 1: we're getting like the seventeen or eighteen point lines right

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Speaker 1: with like the Patriots stuff. But to see these lines

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Speaker 1: just routinely, like in the double digits all the day long,

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Speaker 1: is it me?

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Speaker 2: Or do we see that way more frequently these days?

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Speaker 3: Yeah? I think we are. I mean they're starting to

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Speaker 3: us look like college football lines a little, right, But yeah,

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Speaker 3: I think we are. I don't know if it's just

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Speaker 3: actually disparity in kind of talent, or if it's just

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Speaker 3: because the public is getting so much more involved in

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Speaker 3: sports betting, and I think that might have something to

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Speaker 3: do with it that. Obviously, the public betters are usually

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Speaker 3: a little bit square, so when it's a big mismatch,

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Speaker 3: they just assume that the better team is gonna win

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Speaker 3: by a ton of points. But not necessarily the case.

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Speaker 3: I mean, look at this Kansas City Chiefs last season,

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Speaker 3: big favorites in almost every single game. A lot of

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Speaker 3: them were like double digit close to double jit digit.

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Speaker 3: In the regular season. They finished seven to nine against

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Speaker 3: the spread. So even though there's mismatches, doesn't mean the

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Speaker 3: team's gonna win by a lot.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Mike, with the last game, I don't really see

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Speaker 1: like a ton of value here that I'm dying to

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Speaker 1: lock in a line or anything before we move later

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Speaker 1: in the week.

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Speaker 2: This is there just tough.

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Speaker 1: Honestly, Let's go to the Patriots visiting the Jets. Patriots

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Speaker 1: are favored by five and a half points and the

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Speaker 1: total is forty two and a half.

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Speaker 3: What do you think, Oh, I think I got to

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Speaker 3: go with the under on that one. I was on

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Speaker 3: the under and the Jets Panthers game this past week,

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Speaker 3: I just don't. I mean, I don't really believe in

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Speaker 3: anything of the Jets offense. The other game I was

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Speaker 3: on the under as well was the Patriots, and the

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Speaker 3: Patriots and Dolphins last week, both those under his cash

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Speaker 3: as well. I think both teams do have slightly better

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Speaker 3: defenses than offenses, especially the case with the Patriots. I

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Speaker 3: just don't think they have quite enough offense weapons to

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Speaker 3: put up a ton of points. I'm surprised. I'm actually

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Speaker 3: surprised this total is not in the thirties, like thirty

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Speaker 3: eight to thirty nine. So I think you said it

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Speaker 3: was forty two and a half. I'm probably gonna end

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Speaker 3: up taking the under it no one.

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Speaker 1: What's funny is there are books out there at forty

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Speaker 1: three and a half. Forty two and a half is

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Speaker 1: the consensus line. But you know, I'm in agreement with you.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I think the bottom line is that the

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Speaker 1: Jets have a significant weakness in their defense, and it

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Speaker 1: is the secondary. But that's not really necessarily what the

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Speaker 1: Patriots are built to exploit, right, I mean, you're gonna

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Speaker 1: have Nelson Agalo or you're gonna have Jacobe Myers, but

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Speaker 1: they're not the type of guys who are really just

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Speaker 1: gonna destroy you who you can pick on them. They

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Speaker 1: are gonna want to play conservative, They're gonna want to

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Speaker 1: lean on their defense.

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Speaker 2: And we saw the Jets.

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Speaker 1: Zach Wilson hung in there and played pretty well in

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Speaker 1: the second half, but their offensive line is decimated. Makai

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Speaker 1: Becktin's now out for several weeks. I'm with you. I'm

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Speaker 1: with you if you can get a forty three and

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Speaker 1: a half, Like there are randomly kind of sitting out

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Speaker 1: there and it's forty three at Fox Bed and at

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Speaker 1: points bet it's forty three. I agree with you. I

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Speaker 1: would lock that in because I do not expect it

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Speaker 1: to necessarily move down. Now, this one's a little tough

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Speaker 1: because we have not seen the Raiders play. But the

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Speaker 1: Steelers right now are home and they are laying six

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Speaker 1: and a half to the Raiders, and the total is

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Speaker 1: not a big deal. I totally messed up my sheet

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Speaker 1: right now. But start with the spread. I'll get you

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Speaker 1: the total in the second six and a half? Did

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Speaker 1: I say six and a half? Sorry, Steelers at home

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Speaker 1: against the Raiders.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 3: I think I would probably back the Raiders, just like

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Speaker 3: am tonight. I mean, I think the thing with the

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Speaker 3: Raiders is just people think they're worse than what they

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Speaker 3: are they're actually I don't think they're that bad of

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Speaker 3: a team really, especially their offense. They were like something

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Speaker 3: like sixth or seventh in offensive yards per game last season,

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Speaker 3: around the same and third down conversion percentage, which I

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Speaker 3: value quite a bit when handicapping my dame. Their defense

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Speaker 3: is obviously horrific, but I think the Steelers offense is horrific.

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Speaker 3: So if the Steelers are getting that many or the

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Speaker 3: sort of the Raiders are getting that many points, I'm

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Speaker 3: gonna definitely back them on the spread consist year. Obviously,

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Speaker 3: the Steelers defense is arguably the top unit in the NFL,

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Speaker 3: but I don't think the Raiders are as bad as

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Speaker 3: a lot of people think. Now, if someone's watching this

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Speaker 3: after Monday night, I might look stupid because who knows

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Speaker 3: what's gonna happen in this game. So in my defense,

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Speaker 3: we haven't seen the Raiders yet this season, but I

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Speaker 3: think they're better than They're not a great team. They're

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Speaker 3: not a good team, but I think they're better than

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Speaker 3: what a lot of people give them credit for.

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Speaker 1: I'm coming with you on the stupid train, then, because

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Speaker 1: I agree with you, I really do. I think the

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Speaker 1: Raiders offensive line is subpar, but other than that.

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Speaker 2: It's a pretty decent team.

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Speaker 1: I mean, Derek Carr is kind of quietly a pretty

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Speaker 1: okay decent quarterback in the league. Darren Efficient, thank you

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Speaker 1: very much. That's a nice way to put it. Darren

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Speaker 1: Waller is a superstar. Obviously, they have the two running

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Speaker 1: backs with Josh Jacobs, who again as we record this

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Speaker 1: has an illness sounds like you will play tonight, but

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Speaker 1: also Kenyan Drake. The receivers are young but emerging with

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Speaker 1: Rugs and Brian Edwards.

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Speaker 2: So that's there. But you're right, the real thing is

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Speaker 2: the Steelers. I mean, their.

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Speaker 1: Offensive line looked abismo, as we kind of expected coming

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Speaker 1: into that game against the Bills. They really struggle to

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Speaker 1: kind of have a cohesive offensive philosophy. So I agree,

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Speaker 1: if you're getting that points, what about the total, which

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Speaker 1: I have finally found, Ian, don't worry.

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Speaker 2: The consentus line is actually forty eight.

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Speaker 1: But when I'm looking at the various books, you've got

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Speaker 1: mostly a big disparity here, more than I usually see

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Speaker 1: bet MGM for example, it's forty seven and a half.

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Speaker 1: Fandele it's forty nine and a half. So like the

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Speaker 1: consensus is forty eight in between. So do you think

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Speaker 1: there's if you're like, let's say you have access to

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Speaker 1: one of those books, do you find one of those

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Speaker 1: enticing one way or another?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I'd be taking the under for sure. If it's

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Speaker 3: going to be in the high forties. I mean, like

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Speaker 3: I kind of said the ste I mean, the Steelers

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Speaker 3: just stop the Buffalo Bills offense, which we think is

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Speaker 3: still one of the best offenses in the NFL. And

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Speaker 3: then you got the Steelers offense which can't move the

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Speaker 3: ball at all. I mean they needed a block punt

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Speaker 3: for a touchdown to win that game. So yeah, I mean,

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Speaker 3: I'm some shocked. As in the high forties, I'd be

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Speaker 3: taking the under in that for sure.

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Speaker 1: I agree with you, and I think this is something

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Speaker 1: where you probably want to lock it in out, especially

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Speaker 1: if you're like, look, I'm in New Hampshire.

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Speaker 2: The only book we have access to his DraftKings, it's

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Speaker 2: at forty nine.

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Speaker 1: I will be locking it in ordinarily, just because I

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Speaker 1: respect you so much, and I'm not going to do

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Speaker 1: it while we're podcasting right now, but ordinarily for guests

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Speaker 1: that I think lesser of, I would do it actually

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Speaker 1: right now, but I want, all right, let's go to

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Speaker 1: the Bengals visiting the Bears. The Bears here are laying

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Speaker 1: three points in our consensus line, and the over under

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Speaker 1: is forty five.

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Speaker 2: Any value in either of those numbers, that's tough.

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Speaker 3: I think I think that line set right. I mean,

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Speaker 3: I'm kind of a Bears hater, to be honest. I

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Speaker 3: veta against them quite often last season, especially right after

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Speaker 3: they got off of that like five and one start

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Speaker 3: or whatever it was. So I think I would have

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Speaker 3: to back the Bengals here. Also, I was impressed by

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Speaker 3: what I saw from the Bengals in Week one. That

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Speaker 3: was one of the bets that I lost. I was

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Speaker 3: on the Vikings. I thought the Vikings were going to

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Speaker 3: run away with that. I was nervous for Joe Burrow

346
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Speaker 3: coming off that the knee injury because there were some

347
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Speaker 3: reports that he wasn't quite feeling comfortable in training camp.

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Speaker 3: But he looked great. He you know, faced the pressure.

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Speaker 3: He threw a lot of great footballs. I think I'm

350
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Speaker 3: going to back the Bengals in that one. But that

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Speaker 3: line seems just about right. That one. That one's that

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Speaker 3: one's gonna be one. I'm gonna have to dive into

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Speaker 3: a little bit more. But kind of when you're I mean,

354
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Speaker 3: when you're betting on every single NFL game, you're not

355
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Speaker 3: gonna have a strong feel one or the.

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Speaker 2: Other and everything. So it's the best.

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Speaker 1: I love that you're like, well, I'm gonna I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: have to bet this one, so I'll let you know

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Speaker 1: how I feel about it.

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Speaker 2: For me, I completely agree with you.

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Speaker 1: I think both the total and the spread are just

362
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Speaker 1: right there at a point where that you don't want

363
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Speaker 1: to bet this game. You have to because it's in

364
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Speaker 1: your contract. But still I think that it's a game

365
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Speaker 1: that I want to avoid. Although I will say I

366
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Speaker 1: was really impressed with the Bengals and Burrow. You know,

367
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Speaker 1: I'm obviously also a fantasy guy and I do projections.

368
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Speaker 1: I was very nervous about Joe Burrow and what he

369
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Speaker 1: would look like early in the season, for the mental

370
00:14:54,440 --> 00:14:56,400
Speaker 1: part of it, not the physical parts, and like he'd

371
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Speaker 1: fully recovered, but it's very difficult when.

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Speaker 2: You have that injury.

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Speaker 1: And that's really what you hearing in camp was that

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Speaker 1: he was struggling the mental part of it, and he hung.

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Speaker 1: I think he was sacked five times. You wouldn't have

376
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Speaker 1: known it. He didn't look jumpy in the pocket. He

377
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Speaker 1: uncorked some great throws, and Jamar Chase another guy missing

378
00:15:11,000 --> 00:15:12,840
Speaker 1: football for a year. Everybody was kind of like, oh no,

379
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Speaker 1: I'm worried. He looked fantastic too, So I'm definitely more

380
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Speaker 1: optimistic on the team overall. At the same time, three

381
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Speaker 1: points right there is the correct spread. The Rams are

382
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Speaker 1: visiting the Colts, the Rams are favored by four, and

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Speaker 1: the total is forty seven and a half Rams.

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Speaker 3: I already was high on the Rams heading into this season,

385
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Speaker 3: and then they did nothing but make me even more

386
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Speaker 3: confident in them against the Bears there on Sunday night.

387
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Speaker 3: Matthew Stafford looks like, at least through one week, he

388
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Speaker 3: looks like he's living up to people's expectations. The defense

389
00:15:42,520 --> 00:15:45,040
Speaker 3: is still a dominant unit, maybe not quite as good

390
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Speaker 3: as the defense last year. But then the complete opposite

391
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Speaker 3: was the case for the Colts. Curson Wentz didn't impress

392
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Speaker 3: me whatsoever. Colts offense didn't necessarily look great, didn't look explosive. Yeah,

393
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Speaker 3: I'm definitely that's definitely a good spot for the Rams.

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Speaker 3: I think where'd you say that game? Was? That? Is

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Speaker 3: that in?

396
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Speaker 2: It's in Indianapolis, in Indianapolis.

397
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Speaker 1: Yeah, so obviously otherwise, yeah, you would expect it to

398
00:16:07,000 --> 00:16:09,160
Speaker 1: be yeah, closer to touch on. I agree with you,

399
00:16:09,240 --> 00:16:10,520
Speaker 1: by the way. So I do think the Cults are

400
00:16:10,520 --> 00:16:11,760
Speaker 1: going to play a little bit better here. I mean,

401
00:16:11,880 --> 00:16:15,160
Speaker 1: remember they had such little time to really practice and work.

402
00:16:15,400 --> 00:16:19,040
Speaker 1: But they really have nothing offensively right now. I mean

403
00:16:19,040 --> 00:16:22,160
Speaker 1: the receivers. I like Michael Pittman Jr. I like Zach Paskal.

404
00:16:22,200 --> 00:16:24,080
Speaker 1: They're certainly not going to be able to do anything

405
00:16:24,400 --> 00:16:27,600
Speaker 1: against this this defense here with the cornerbacks, and then

406
00:16:27,680 --> 00:16:29,600
Speaker 1: you just are you know, Jon Taylor is very good,

407
00:16:29,680 --> 00:16:32,120
Speaker 1: but Niam Hines like it's gimmicky a little bit with

408
00:16:32,160 --> 00:16:33,920
Speaker 1: this offense. And I think you're going to get some

409
00:16:34,000 --> 00:16:37,080
Speaker 1: value right near now early on the RAMS. I think

410
00:16:37,080 --> 00:16:39,640
Speaker 1: you had value in week one as well, which I

411
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Speaker 1: think most better saw. That's why you saw the spread

412
00:16:41,680 --> 00:16:44,480
Speaker 1: rise overall. What about the total? Any feelings on it?

413
00:16:44,480 --> 00:16:49,560
Speaker 1: It is forty seven and a half. I would probably

414
00:16:49,680 --> 00:16:51,000
Speaker 1: lean the under on that one.

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Speaker 3: Generally in totals, I'm usually an under guy as it

416
00:16:55,360 --> 00:16:58,320
Speaker 3: is because I always feel like the points that the

417
00:16:58,320 --> 00:17:00,680
Speaker 3: totals are point or two higher than they normally would

418
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Speaker 3: because the public loves betting on overs. I mean who

419
00:17:03,600 --> 00:17:05,440
Speaker 3: who the unders not enjoy.

420
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Speaker 1: Whoa something right as anything?

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00:17:09,520 --> 00:17:11,360
Speaker 3: Not a fun bet to make, So usually that one,

422
00:17:11,440 --> 00:17:15,200
Speaker 3: especially where it's close, I would lean the under. And yeah,

423
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Speaker 3: I don't know. Obviously the RAMS defense is going to

424
00:17:17,760 --> 00:17:19,199
Speaker 3: be one of the best in the unit and one

425
00:17:19,200 --> 00:17:20,680
Speaker 3: of the best units in the NFL. It's gonna be

426
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Speaker 3: hard for me to take an over in a Rams

427
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Speaker 3: game this year.

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Speaker 1: But yeah, I'm I agree with you. I agree with

429
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Speaker 1: you for sure, But for me, it's a little bit

430
00:17:26,640 --> 00:17:28,639
Speaker 1: of a stay away just because I don't know. I mean,

431
00:17:28,680 --> 00:17:30,879
Speaker 1: I could see the Colt Stephens is not bad, but

432
00:17:30,960 --> 00:17:33,840
Speaker 1: you saw Russell Wilson, like I could see the Rams

433
00:17:33,880 --> 00:17:36,920
Speaker 1: by themselves putting up, you know whatever, a thirty spot

434
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Speaker 1: if they absolutely had to.

435
00:17:38,119 --> 00:17:39,520
Speaker 2: Bills visiting the Dolphins.

436
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Speaker 1: The Bills are laying three and a half points and

437
00:17:42,720 --> 00:17:44,160
Speaker 1: the total is forty eight and a half.

438
00:17:44,160 --> 00:17:46,840
Speaker 3: What do you think, UH gonna take the Bills. This

439
00:17:46,880 --> 00:17:49,240
Speaker 3: is a spot where, like I said earlier, I'm trying

440
00:17:49,280 --> 00:17:51,800
Speaker 3: not to react a week overreact to Week one. The

441
00:17:51,840 --> 00:17:55,320
Speaker 3: Bills didn't look great, especially offensively, but I think they

442
00:17:55,359 --> 00:17:57,240
Speaker 3: are still the team that we saw last year. And

443
00:17:57,240 --> 00:17:59,800
Speaker 3: the interesting thing to think about the Miami Dolphins, and

444
00:17:59,880 --> 00:18:02,160
Speaker 3: they were the best spread team last year, but were

445
00:18:02,160 --> 00:18:03,840
Speaker 3: they eleven and five I think in the regular season

446
00:18:03,840 --> 00:18:05,520
Speaker 3: against the spread? And I was on the wrong side

447
00:18:05,560 --> 00:18:08,280
Speaker 3: the large majority of them. And excuse me, they had

448
00:18:08,280 --> 00:18:11,680
Speaker 3: the same kind of oat come in Week one where

449
00:18:11,720 --> 00:18:13,239
Speaker 3: they want and cover the spread. But if you look

450
00:18:13,280 --> 00:18:17,640
Speaker 3: at their defensive numbers, they're giving up yards. But what's

451
00:18:17,680 --> 00:18:20,880
Speaker 3: happening is they're getting timely turnovers at the perfect time,

452
00:18:21,480 --> 00:18:23,760
Speaker 3: and that that's what their whole kind of motive was.

453
00:18:23,840 --> 00:18:27,359
Speaker 3: Last year they led the league in takeaways and turnovers.

454
00:18:27,359 --> 00:18:30,560
Speaker 3: In my opinion, at least, there is at least some

455
00:18:30,640 --> 00:18:32,760
Speaker 3: degree of luck to it. It's not all skill. You

456
00:18:32,800 --> 00:18:35,199
Speaker 3: need the running back to fumble the ball. You need

457
00:18:35,240 --> 00:18:39,160
Speaker 3: the quarterback to you know, miss rita route or coverage

458
00:18:39,240 --> 00:18:42,440
Speaker 3: and throw a bad ball. So if they don't keep

459
00:18:42,480 --> 00:18:45,520
Speaker 3: getting these these kind of takeaways, the Dolphins shouldn't be

460
00:18:45,680 --> 00:18:48,240
Speaker 3: as good as what they are, especially obviously their defense.

461
00:18:48,280 --> 00:18:50,800
Speaker 3: But they keep getting these takeaways. So it's funny to

462
00:18:50,800 --> 00:18:52,600
Speaker 3: see that exact same thing happen in Week one that

463
00:18:52,640 --> 00:18:55,000
Speaker 3: we saw all season last year in the Dolphins. So

464
00:18:55,200 --> 00:18:58,520
Speaker 3: I going to continue fading the Dolphins because, like I said,

465
00:18:58,560 --> 00:19:00,840
Speaker 3: I just think takeaways have a little bit of an

466
00:19:00,840 --> 00:19:03,040
Speaker 3: element of luck, and that defense is giving up yards,

467
00:19:03,119 --> 00:19:05,439
Speaker 3: the offense is and getting a ton of yards, and

468
00:19:05,480 --> 00:19:06,840
Speaker 3: I think the Bills are gonna have a big bounce

469
00:19:06,880 --> 00:19:07,960
Speaker 3: back week, so I'm gonna go with them.

470
00:19:08,280 --> 00:19:11,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think this is really a Bills statement game

471
00:19:11,320 --> 00:19:13,200
Speaker 1: at this one, because I think right it has to,

472
00:19:13,240 --> 00:19:15,960
Speaker 1: because there are question marks about them because Josh Allen.

473
00:19:16,040 --> 00:19:18,320
Speaker 2: You know, in Fantasy especially.

474
00:19:18,040 --> 00:19:20,240
Speaker 1: We talk about that, like everybody waits for Josh Allen

475
00:19:20,280 --> 00:19:22,960
Speaker 1: to turn back into like the guy who the Bills draft,

476
00:19:22,960 --> 00:19:25,280
Speaker 1: and you're like, just this inaccurate guy, don't know what

477
00:19:25,320 --> 00:19:28,000
Speaker 1: we saw last year. It's eventually things are gonna come back.

478
00:19:28,000 --> 00:19:30,479
Speaker 1: That's not gonna happen. Josh Allen is great. The system

479
00:19:30,560 --> 00:19:33,840
Speaker 1: that they will put in together is great. They're gonna

480
00:19:33,840 --> 00:19:36,600
Speaker 1: be a fantastic team, including this year. There are some

481
00:19:36,680 --> 00:19:38,880
Speaker 1: threes out there. There's actually one two and a half

482
00:19:38,880 --> 00:19:41,160
Speaker 1: out there, which I love. But even with the hook,

483
00:19:41,240 --> 00:19:43,000
Speaker 1: I'm totally fine with that. I'm not really going near

484
00:19:43,080 --> 00:19:45,480
Speaker 1: the spread. It's at forty eight and a half. That

485
00:19:46,240 --> 00:19:48,840
Speaker 1: strikes me as about right for something like that, you know,

486
00:19:48,960 --> 00:19:51,320
Speaker 1: but I do agree with you that even on the road,

487
00:19:51,480 --> 00:19:54,000
Speaker 1: I'm taking the Bills even if you gotta lay the hook.

488
00:19:54,320 --> 00:19:56,720
Speaker 2: How about the Saints visiting the Panthers.

489
00:19:57,200 --> 00:20:02,200
Speaker 1: The Saints are three and a half point favorites, and

490
00:20:02,480 --> 00:20:04,640
Speaker 1: I will get you the total in like two seconds.

491
00:20:04,680 --> 00:20:06,240
Speaker 1: How about the three and a half point favorites for

492
00:20:06,280 --> 00:20:06,639
Speaker 1: the Saints.

493
00:20:06,680 --> 00:20:08,800
Speaker 3: God to take the Saints man. Jameis Winston is my

494
00:20:08,840 --> 00:20:12,840
Speaker 3: preseason bet to win MVP, and he proved proved me

495
00:20:12,920 --> 00:20:14,119
Speaker 3: right a little bit there in Week one. Now, he

496
00:20:14,160 --> 00:20:15,800
Speaker 3: didn't throw over a ton of yards. He's what like

497
00:20:15,800 --> 00:20:18,080
Speaker 3: one hundred and fifty six yards, but somebody still had

498
00:20:18,080 --> 00:20:21,560
Speaker 3: five touchdown passes, which is kind of insane. But I'm not.

499
00:20:21,840 --> 00:20:25,600
Speaker 3: I'm I'm an anti Sam Donald guy. I was. I

500
00:20:25,680 --> 00:20:28,680
Speaker 3: don't understand why the Panthers opted for Sam Donald over

501
00:20:29,200 --> 00:20:31,679
Speaker 3: over Teddy Bridgewater. I thought, I mean, look just look

502
00:20:31,680 --> 00:20:33,840
Speaker 3: at their completion percentage in their career and we'll get

503
00:20:33,880 --> 00:20:36,280
Speaker 3: to Teddy Bridgewater when we talk about the Broncos. But

504
00:20:37,040 --> 00:20:39,480
Speaker 3: not a believer in Sam Donald, it's it's gonna be

505
00:20:39,520 --> 00:20:41,560
Speaker 3: tough for me to ever bet on him. I'm gonna

506
00:20:41,560 --> 00:20:44,199
Speaker 3: take the Saints in this one. I love how Jamis

507
00:20:44,200 --> 00:20:46,879
Speaker 3: Winston looked. He didn't throw any in any interceptions and

508
00:20:46,920 --> 00:20:49,359
Speaker 3: that's that's his key thing. So give me the Saints

509
00:20:49,359 --> 00:20:49,720
Speaker 3: in that one.

510
00:20:50,200 --> 00:20:52,600
Speaker 1: I technically threw an interception that was negated by a

511
00:20:52,640 --> 00:20:54,920
Speaker 1: nonsense penalty, but yes, he looked good.

512
00:20:55,080 --> 00:20:56,800
Speaker 2: The offense look good, I know, officially not I'm just

513
00:20:56,840 --> 00:20:57,200
Speaker 2: teasing you.

514
00:20:58,600 --> 00:21:01,440
Speaker 1: As a Jets fan, there is no greater fader of

515
00:21:01,920 --> 00:21:03,480
Speaker 1: Sam Darnold than myself.

516
00:21:03,520 --> 00:21:05,680
Speaker 2: And again, the one non.

517
00:21:05,520 --> 00:21:07,320
Speaker 1: Totals bet that I gave out on our show on

518
00:21:07,400 --> 00:21:09,919
Speaker 1: Thursday was that I like the Jets getting five and

519
00:21:09,920 --> 00:21:10,280
Speaker 1: a half.

520
00:21:10,280 --> 00:21:12,200
Speaker 2: Now, that was a sweat, a little.

521
00:21:11,920 --> 00:21:14,919
Speaker 1: Bit of a lucky cover, but whatever they covered. I

522
00:21:14,960 --> 00:21:17,320
Speaker 1: do not believe in this Panthers team whatsoever. I do

523
00:21:17,400 --> 00:21:18,320
Speaker 1: absolutely believe.

524
00:21:18,080 --> 00:21:18,600
Speaker 2: In the Saints team.

525
00:21:18,600 --> 00:21:18,719
Speaker 3: Now.

526
00:21:18,720 --> 00:21:21,560
Speaker 1: They are suffering from a few injuries here on the

527
00:21:21,600 --> 00:21:23,840
Speaker 1: defensive side of the ball, so that is something that

528
00:21:23,880 --> 00:21:26,560
Speaker 1: could mess around with it. But I don't really see

529
00:21:26,560 --> 00:21:28,960
Speaker 1: these two teams as in the same class right now.

530
00:21:29,119 --> 00:21:31,199
Speaker 1: Just given what we saw in that game against the

531
00:21:31,320 --> 00:21:33,840
Speaker 1: very good Packers team, I don't think the Packers are done.

532
00:21:33,880 --> 00:21:37,000
Speaker 1: I mean that defense. Again, they have injuries, but they're legitimate.

533
00:21:37,000 --> 00:21:38,760
Speaker 1: And if you're gonna have that defense going up against

534
00:21:38,800 --> 00:21:42,160
Speaker 1: Sam Darnald, especially off his high of his revenge game win,

535
00:21:42,760 --> 00:21:45,000
Speaker 1: I like that. I also kind of lean towards the

536
00:21:45,080 --> 00:21:47,199
Speaker 1: over at forty four and a half. It's a pretty

537
00:21:47,280 --> 00:21:49,720
Speaker 1: low total, not crazy low or anything like that. But

538
00:21:49,760 --> 00:21:51,480
Speaker 1: I do think that the Saints are going to be

539
00:21:51,520 --> 00:21:55,239
Speaker 1: able to score pretty easily on the Panthers, like not

540
00:21:55,320 --> 00:21:57,679
Speaker 1: at will, but certainly they'll be able to put up points.

541
00:21:57,840 --> 00:21:59,280
Speaker 2: And I think they're just enough there.

542
00:21:59,320 --> 00:22:01,239
Speaker 1: I think the Panthers probably only need to put up

543
00:22:01,400 --> 00:22:04,080
Speaker 1: you know, maybe two touchdowns, will probably find their way

544
00:22:04,080 --> 00:22:05,679
Speaker 1: into it, and I think the Saints may go up

545
00:22:05,680 --> 00:22:07,760
Speaker 1: ahead and sort of lead it to like the back

546
00:22:07,800 --> 00:22:09,600
Speaker 1: door over. So for me, I kind of like the

547
00:22:09,640 --> 00:22:11,960
Speaker 1: over under forty four and a half the over, but

548
00:22:12,040 --> 00:22:13,840
Speaker 1: I don't feel like it's something you need to rush

549
00:22:13,840 --> 00:22:15,480
Speaker 1: out and bet you know, I don't expect that line

550
00:22:15,480 --> 00:22:17,040
Speaker 1: to move all that much, you know what I'm saying.

551
00:22:17,160 --> 00:22:19,560
Speaker 3: And I will say one other thing about the Saints.

552
00:22:19,800 --> 00:22:21,840
Speaker 3: Nobody talks about the Saints, at least in this offseas.

553
00:22:21,880 --> 00:22:23,960
Speaker 3: Nobody really talk about how good their defense was, like

554
00:22:23,960 --> 00:22:26,119
Speaker 3: they I think they were a third in scoring last year.

555
00:22:26,119 --> 00:22:28,600
Speaker 3: The defense was, but that's not a thing that's that's

556
00:22:28,800 --> 00:22:30,639
Speaker 3: ever really brought up. And then you saw that defense

557
00:22:30,640 --> 00:22:33,600
Speaker 3: against the Packers there in Week one, So Saints continue

558
00:22:33,600 --> 00:22:34,280
Speaker 3: to be underrated.

559
00:22:34,280 --> 00:22:36,600
Speaker 2: I think, yep, all right, you mentioned the Broncos. Let's

560
00:22:36,640 --> 00:22:39,000
Speaker 2: go to them. They are visiting the Jaguars.

561
00:22:39,080 --> 00:22:43,080
Speaker 1: The Jaguars are getting six points from the Broncos here

562
00:22:43,280 --> 00:22:45,200
Speaker 1: and the total is forty five and a half.

563
00:22:45,280 --> 00:22:45,760
Speaker 2: What do you think?

564
00:22:46,400 --> 00:22:49,480
Speaker 3: I listen, I'm not a big trends guy when it

565
00:22:49,520 --> 00:22:51,199
Speaker 3: comes to, oh, this team's you know, ten and two

566
00:22:51,280 --> 00:22:53,840
Speaker 3: against the spread in this spot. But there's one trend

567
00:22:53,880 --> 00:22:56,280
Speaker 3: that I'm obsessed with that I have to continue betting on,

568
00:22:56,600 --> 00:22:59,880
Speaker 3: and it is Teddy Bridgewater. Teddy covers, man. I don't

569
00:22:59,880 --> 00:23:01,520
Speaker 3: have is against the spread record in front of me,

570
00:23:01,560 --> 00:23:03,200
Speaker 3: but I think it was seventy two percent or seventy

571
00:23:03,200 --> 00:23:05,080
Speaker 3: five percent hitting in the season. Then he just covered

572
00:23:05,080 --> 00:23:08,000
Speaker 3: in Week one. He's a sports betters. He should be

573
00:23:08,000 --> 00:23:10,200
Speaker 3: in the Sports Betting Hall of Fame if that ever exists.

574
00:23:10,240 --> 00:23:13,240
Speaker 3: He needs to be eased that whole room dedicated to himself. So,

575
00:23:13,920 --> 00:23:16,399
Speaker 3: like I said, I'm not usually big trends guy, more

576
00:23:16,440 --> 00:23:19,360
Speaker 3: of a stats guy, but I'm gonna keep riding my guy,

577
00:23:19,400 --> 00:23:22,000
Speaker 3: Teddy Bridgewater. Man, I'll take the Broncos.

578
00:23:21,720 --> 00:23:23,280
Speaker 1: And I think if you do like him, you should

579
00:23:23,320 --> 00:23:26,320
Speaker 1: probably bet him now because I think that if anything,

580
00:23:26,400 --> 00:23:29,240
Speaker 1: this spread rises, right, like, if anything, the public is like,

581
00:23:29,280 --> 00:23:31,520
Speaker 1: I'm not betting on the Jaguars, like give you the Broncos,

582
00:23:31,560 --> 00:23:34,040
Speaker 1: like Teddy whatever, and it rises closer to a touchdown,

583
00:23:34,200 --> 00:23:36,040
Speaker 1: So I think you do want it now when it's

584
00:23:36,080 --> 00:23:37,960
Speaker 1: blows touch on, You're not going to miss out on

585
00:23:38,080 --> 00:23:39,480
Speaker 1: anything if you bet it. It's not like it's going

586
00:23:39,560 --> 00:23:41,679
Speaker 1: to drop to you know, for or anything like that,

587
00:23:41,720 --> 00:23:43,880
Speaker 1: So you're not missing anything by doing it now. Any

588
00:23:44,200 --> 00:23:46,639
Speaker 1: any lean at all on the total forty five and

589
00:23:46,640 --> 00:23:48,680
Speaker 1: a half probably under.

590
00:23:48,800 --> 00:23:51,920
Speaker 3: I mean Trevor Lawrence struggled against the Texans defense, which

591
00:23:51,920 --> 00:23:53,280
Speaker 3: is supposed to be one of the worst defense in

592
00:23:53,359 --> 00:23:55,200
Speaker 3: the NFL, and now he's going up against a very

593
00:23:55,320 --> 00:23:59,639
Speaker 3: very good, probably underrated defense in the Broncos. And the

594
00:23:59,640 --> 00:24:01,960
Speaker 3: Broncos offense, as much as I like Teddy Bridgewater, is

595
00:24:01,960 --> 00:24:05,720
Speaker 3: not exactly an explosive, high scoring offense. It's efficient. He

596
00:24:05,760 --> 00:24:08,760
Speaker 3: doesn't really turn the ball over. So yeah, I would

597
00:24:08,760 --> 00:24:11,960
Speaker 3: probably go under on that total for sure, all right.

598
00:24:12,040 --> 00:24:15,520
Speaker 1: Next one, both teams winning in Week one, the forty

599
00:24:15,600 --> 00:24:18,800
Speaker 1: nine Ers visiting the Eagles. The forty nine Ers are

600
00:24:18,880 --> 00:24:21,800
Speaker 1: favored by three and a half points and the total

601
00:24:22,040 --> 00:24:24,760
Speaker 1: is fifty. Obviously, the forty nine Ers suffered a few

602
00:24:24,800 --> 00:24:27,199
Speaker 1: injuries with Brett, and they've got Mostart who's now going

603
00:24:27,240 --> 00:24:29,120
Speaker 1: to be out eight weeks, so they're a little banged

604
00:24:29,160 --> 00:24:32,119
Speaker 1: up here. Meanwhile, Jalen Hurts was super impressive obviously in

605
00:24:32,119 --> 00:24:32,719
Speaker 1: that opening win.

606
00:24:32,960 --> 00:24:33,480
Speaker 2: What do you think?

607
00:24:34,520 --> 00:24:36,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, heading in the season, I thought Jalen Hurts is

608
00:24:36,560 --> 00:24:38,560
Speaker 3: one of the more underrated quarterbacks. I didn't think he

609
00:24:38,600 --> 00:24:40,919
Speaker 3: really got a fair shot. Last year started late when

610
00:24:40,960 --> 00:24:43,119
Speaker 3: the team had basically already given up on the season.

611
00:24:43,119 --> 00:24:44,919
Speaker 3: They're getting three and a half points in the spot.

612
00:24:45,000 --> 00:24:47,840
Speaker 3: And what happened with the forty nine Ers defense. This

613
00:24:47,880 --> 00:24:50,080
Speaker 3: is supposed to be one of the best defenses in

614
00:24:50,119 --> 00:24:52,920
Speaker 3: the NFL and they just allowed the Detroit Lions, led

615
00:24:52,920 --> 00:24:55,159
Speaker 3: by Jared Goff to put up like four hundred and

616
00:24:55,200 --> 00:24:57,120
Speaker 3: thirty yards against them. What's going on in the forty

617
00:24:57,160 --> 00:24:59,840
Speaker 3: nine Ers defense? Now? To be fair, the majority of

618
00:24:59,840 --> 00:25:01,520
Speaker 3: the points and the arrows came late in the game

619
00:25:01,560 --> 00:25:04,080
Speaker 3: when basically the game was at least supposed to be

620
00:25:04,119 --> 00:25:07,960
Speaker 3: over or felt like it was over. So maybe they

621
00:25:07,960 --> 00:25:10,520
Speaker 3: are as good as they're supposed to be. But I'll

622
00:25:10,520 --> 00:25:12,520
Speaker 3: take the Eagles getting three and a half points at home.

623
00:25:12,560 --> 00:25:15,640
Speaker 3: It's over. It's just over that magic number of three

624
00:25:15,720 --> 00:25:18,159
Speaker 3: that obviously, if you're betting on football, you know that

625
00:25:19,359 --> 00:25:21,280
Speaker 3: I'll take the home team in the points, so.

626
00:25:21,800 --> 00:25:22,920
Speaker 2: It's all three and a half.

627
00:25:23,000 --> 00:25:24,840
Speaker 1: I mean, I like a home dog just generally that

628
00:25:24,880 --> 00:25:27,000
Speaker 1: piques my interest a little bit. But I think you

629
00:25:27,080 --> 00:25:29,320
Speaker 1: might get a little bit of the Eagles being undervalued

630
00:25:29,359 --> 00:25:31,760
Speaker 1: early in the season. I think, you know, betters are

631
00:25:31,760 --> 00:25:34,520
Speaker 1: probably willing maybe books too, as books look to sharpen

632
00:25:34,600 --> 00:25:36,280
Speaker 1: their their models and their lines.

633
00:25:36,520 --> 00:25:38,520
Speaker 2: Like I don't think they fully figured out exactly.

634
00:25:38,560 --> 00:25:41,040
Speaker 1: And you know, I joked about it with our last

635
00:25:41,040 --> 00:25:42,639
Speaker 1: gut Sewan because were both joking about how we had

636
00:25:42,720 --> 00:25:45,800
Speaker 1: Nick Sirianni Coach of the Year tickets at like thirty

637
00:25:45,800 --> 00:25:47,840
Speaker 1: five to one or forty to one. And part of

638
00:25:47,880 --> 00:25:50,720
Speaker 1: it was they designed this entire offense. They had the

639
00:25:50,760 --> 00:25:53,760
Speaker 1: whole offseason to design an offense. Rumors aside about the

640
00:25:53,800 --> 00:25:58,000
Speaker 1: Shawn Watson around Jalen Hurts and his skill set. He

641
00:25:58,119 --> 00:26:01,000
Speaker 1: has some playmakers and some receivers right now, because again

642
00:26:01,040 --> 00:26:04,040
Speaker 1: he has Devonte Smith, who's really good. Rager, Jalen Rager

643
00:26:04,040 --> 00:26:06,480
Speaker 1: looks pretty good. You've got Dallas Goddard still there. The

644
00:26:06,520 --> 00:26:09,000
Speaker 1: offensive line is healthy. It's going to make a big difference.

645
00:26:09,000 --> 00:26:11,080
Speaker 1: And again the forty nine are suffered a bunch of injuries.

646
00:26:11,240 --> 00:26:13,400
Speaker 1: If you're giving me the hook with the team at home,

647
00:26:13,720 --> 00:26:14,480
Speaker 1: I am more than.

648
00:26:14,359 --> 00:26:15,080
Speaker 2: Willing to take it.

649
00:26:15,359 --> 00:26:17,480
Speaker 1: How about is another big spread that we talked about.

650
00:26:17,480 --> 00:26:19,639
Speaker 1: The Bucks are laying twelve and a half at home

651
00:26:19,960 --> 00:26:20,760
Speaker 1: to the Falcons.

652
00:26:20,760 --> 00:26:21,920
Speaker 2: The totals fifty two.

653
00:26:22,520 --> 00:26:27,400
Speaker 3: I'm a Falcons fan, man, they just they're bad. They're

654
00:26:27,520 --> 00:26:30,359
Speaker 3: so bad, man, I have to take the Buccaneers in

655
00:26:30,400 --> 00:26:32,840
Speaker 3: this spot. Man, I was looking obviously as a Falcons

656
00:26:32,880 --> 00:26:35,080
Speaker 3: fan when no matter how a game goes on, that

657
00:26:35,080 --> 00:26:37,000
Speaker 3: that's the game where I'm going to be focused on

658
00:26:37,440 --> 00:26:39,560
Speaker 3: more afterwards as far as looking at what happened in

659
00:26:39,560 --> 00:26:42,080
Speaker 3: that game went right, what went wrong? Nothing went right

660
00:26:42,160 --> 00:26:45,919
Speaker 3: for the Falcons. They have an offensive lineman I'm blanking

661
00:26:45,920 --> 00:26:47,560
Speaker 3: on the name, but then an offensive lineman who would

662
00:26:47,560 --> 00:26:49,639
Speaker 3: like a PFF ranking of like one point nine to

663
00:26:49,680 --> 00:26:53,480
Speaker 3: eight or something like that, which is Matt Ryan. Apparently

664
00:26:53,520 --> 00:26:56,320
Speaker 3: wasn't responsible for any of the hits that he took

665
00:26:56,440 --> 00:26:58,800
Speaker 3: or any sacks that he took. Their offensive line is terrible,

666
00:26:58,840 --> 00:27:01,359
Speaker 3: and when he looked on the defense side, they have

667
00:27:01,440 --> 00:27:04,600
Speaker 3: one good cornerback in aj Terrell. The other guy just stinks,

668
00:27:04,600 --> 00:27:06,360
Speaker 3: and the Eagles targeted in the whole game, that's where

669
00:27:06,359 --> 00:27:08,320
Speaker 3: they got the large majority of the yards. So if

670
00:27:08,400 --> 00:27:10,800
Speaker 3: Jalen Hurts can pick apart your defense, what is Tom

671
00:27:10,840 --> 00:27:13,760
Speaker 3: Brady gonna do? And the Super Bowl defending champion Damn

672
00:27:13,800 --> 00:27:17,359
Speaker 3: Bay Buccaneers. So I mean, if the Falcons can't score

673
00:27:17,640 --> 00:27:19,760
Speaker 3: a touchdown on the Eagles, what are they going to

674
00:27:19,800 --> 00:27:22,360
Speaker 3: do against this Buccaneers? If they can't stop Jalen Hurts

675
00:27:22,359 --> 00:27:23,639
Speaker 3: and the Eagles, what are they going to do against

676
00:27:23,640 --> 00:27:26,800
Speaker 3: the Buccaneers? Once again, I hate betting big favorites in

677
00:27:26,840 --> 00:27:30,440
Speaker 3: the NFL, especially when it comes to divisional opponents, because

678
00:27:30,440 --> 00:27:32,360
Speaker 3: they typically know we should be a little bit better. Yep,

679
00:27:33,560 --> 00:27:36,760
Speaker 3: But I can't bettle my Falcons. Man. They might be

680
00:27:36,760 --> 00:27:38,200
Speaker 3: the worst team in the NFL this year.

681
00:27:38,720 --> 00:27:41,560
Speaker 1: This was one of the bigger lines that I'm okay

682
00:27:41,560 --> 00:27:44,399
Speaker 1: with like you, because I agree there's not that you

683
00:27:44,480 --> 00:27:48,040
Speaker 1: can't watch that game, the Eagles against the Falcons and

684
00:27:48,200 --> 00:27:52,240
Speaker 1: think that anything remotely optimistic about what we saw on

685
00:27:52,280 --> 00:27:52,960
Speaker 1: either side of the ball.

686
00:27:52,960 --> 00:27:53,679
Speaker 2: You're absolutely right.

687
00:27:53,720 --> 00:27:57,120
Speaker 1: Now you've got the Bucks, they're coming off, they're rested, right,

688
00:27:57,160 --> 00:27:57,720
Speaker 1: They've got.

689
00:27:57,560 --> 00:27:58,360
Speaker 2: The Mini Bay here.

690
00:27:58,680 --> 00:28:02,360
Speaker 1: The opening day, you know what they can do offensively,

691
00:28:02,480 --> 00:28:04,760
Speaker 1: like whatever they want, and their defense was probably a

692
00:28:04,800 --> 00:28:07,640
Speaker 1: little pissed off because they allowed the Cowboys to kind

693
00:28:07,640 --> 00:28:09,960
Speaker 1: of Dak Prescott to throw for over four hundred yards.

694
00:28:09,960 --> 00:28:12,240
Speaker 2: So I'm in agreement with you. I would take this

695
00:28:12,280 --> 00:28:13,280
Speaker 2: at twelve and a half right now.

696
00:28:13,320 --> 00:28:15,280
Speaker 1: Again, I don't think you have any real chance of

697
00:28:15,359 --> 00:28:17,560
Speaker 1: losing value if you bet it. Now, I think of

698
00:28:17,600 --> 00:28:19,800
Speaker 1: anything you could lose value if you don't bet it.

699
00:28:19,880 --> 00:28:21,840
Speaker 1: The total at fifty two, I'm probably just staying away

700
00:28:21,840 --> 00:28:23,680
Speaker 1: from because I have no sense of if the Falcons

701
00:28:23,680 --> 00:28:25,439
Speaker 1: are going to be able to score at all or not,

702
00:28:25,560 --> 00:28:27,480
Speaker 1: or whether we saw like, oh god, they're going to

703
00:28:27,560 --> 00:28:29,320
Speaker 1: be a team that's going to put up, you know,

704
00:28:29,720 --> 00:28:32,160
Speaker 1: six ten points a game. So for me, I'm staying

705
00:28:32,160 --> 00:28:33,720
Speaker 1: away from the total personally.

706
00:28:33,359 --> 00:28:37,080
Speaker 3: But themselves, Bucks might score, that's true for themselves.

707
00:28:37,200 --> 00:28:42,240
Speaker 2: You want over, then you want to go over with yeah?

708
00:28:42,320 --> 00:28:44,280
Speaker 3: Yeah, all right, there we go.

709
00:28:43,960 --> 00:28:46,400
Speaker 2: Go for the over. Right, there be a public root

710
00:28:46,440 --> 00:28:47,520
Speaker 2: for their root for scoring.

711
00:28:47,720 --> 00:28:51,080
Speaker 1: All right, Let's go to the Vikings visiting the Cardinals.

712
00:28:51,120 --> 00:28:53,640
Speaker 1: The Cardinals are laying four and a half points, and

713
00:28:53,720 --> 00:28:58,360
Speaker 1: the total is at fifty one. Obviously incredibly impressive opening

714
00:28:58,440 --> 00:29:00,960
Speaker 1: day performance by the car Knows, who looked like world

715
00:29:01,040 --> 00:29:05,600
Speaker 1: beaters both offensively and defensively. You mentioned the Vikings big

716
00:29:05,600 --> 00:29:09,680
Speaker 1: disappointment expected them to be able to beat the Bengals.

717
00:29:09,720 --> 00:29:12,760
Speaker 2: They didn't. But what do you think here? Fifty one

718
00:29:13,040 --> 00:29:15,920
Speaker 2: for the total and four and a half is the spread.

719
00:29:16,160 --> 00:29:18,200
Speaker 3: This one's a tough one. So the Cardinals were actually

720
00:29:18,320 --> 00:29:20,200
Speaker 3: my money line bet in week one, so I cashed

721
00:29:20,200 --> 00:29:22,800
Speaker 3: on them. But then the Vikings were one of my

722
00:29:22,800 --> 00:29:24,800
Speaker 3: favorite picks, if not like a top three favorite pick

723
00:29:24,840 --> 00:29:26,720
Speaker 3: for me in Week one because I thought the Vikings

724
00:29:26,720 --> 00:29:28,960
Speaker 3: were gonna have a big bounce back season. They had

725
00:29:29,000 --> 00:29:32,680
Speaker 3: a lot of injuries on defense last year. I thought

726
00:29:32,680 --> 00:29:35,640
Speaker 3: I was expecting so much more, especially with Dalvin Cooks.

727
00:29:35,640 --> 00:29:37,960
Speaker 3: And now I'm kind of torn, like do I stick

728
00:29:38,000 --> 00:29:40,680
Speaker 3: to that take? Like do I'm trying not to overreact

729
00:29:40,720 --> 00:29:42,680
Speaker 3: to week one? But the Vikings did not really look

730
00:29:42,680 --> 00:29:45,280
Speaker 3: great in Week one, so this might be the toughest

731
00:29:45,320 --> 00:29:47,000
Speaker 3: game on the board to bet for me this week.

732
00:29:47,080 --> 00:29:49,560
Speaker 3: I think I'm just going to I think I'm gonna

733
00:29:49,560 --> 00:29:51,640
Speaker 3: plug my nose and take the Vikings in the points here.

734
00:29:51,880 --> 00:29:54,320
Speaker 3: I think I'm going to try not to overreact to that,

735
00:29:54,440 --> 00:29:58,360
Speaker 3: you know, subpower performance against the Bengals, maybe the Cardinals.

736
00:29:58,760 --> 00:30:01,560
Speaker 3: I listen, I what faded the car or I faded

737
00:30:01,600 --> 00:30:03,640
Speaker 3: the Titans with the Cardinals money line because I think

738
00:30:03,640 --> 00:30:06,120
Speaker 3: the Titans are way worse than what the record was

739
00:30:06,200 --> 00:30:08,720
Speaker 3: last year. They had like a bottom three, bottom four defense.

740
00:30:08,960 --> 00:30:11,360
Speaker 3: I do think the Vikings defense is better than Titans.

741
00:30:11,400 --> 00:30:14,400
Speaker 3: Hopefully they can slow down the Cardinals offense a little bit.

742
00:30:15,000 --> 00:30:16,960
Speaker 3: I hate to bet, but I'm thinking to plug my

743
00:30:17,000 --> 00:30:18,880
Speaker 3: nose and take the Vikings in the points.

744
00:30:19,080 --> 00:30:20,720
Speaker 1: So I'm not getting anywhere near to this game, but

745
00:30:20,760 --> 00:30:22,680
Speaker 1: I will say that if I did. But if I did,

746
00:30:22,840 --> 00:30:25,680
Speaker 1: I do think that this strikes me as something where

747
00:30:25,720 --> 00:30:27,280
Speaker 1: the public is just going to be all over the

748
00:30:27,320 --> 00:30:28,560
Speaker 1: Cardinals because of what.

749
00:30:28,520 --> 00:30:32,000
Speaker 2: We saw, and the sharp money is going to flood.

750
00:30:31,720 --> 00:30:34,280
Speaker 1: In on the Vikings because they know that the Vikings

751
00:30:34,280 --> 00:30:36,680
Speaker 1: aren't as bad as what we saw last week and

752
00:30:36,720 --> 00:30:37,880
Speaker 1: the Cardinals aren't as good.

753
00:30:38,000 --> 00:30:40,440
Speaker 2: And again, the big thing we didn't nobody really.

754
00:30:40,200 --> 00:30:41,840
Speaker 1: Talked about this, at least I didn't hear about it,

755
00:30:41,840 --> 00:30:43,920
Speaker 1: and I didn't really think about it, especially from a

756
00:30:44,000 --> 00:30:47,400
Speaker 1: betting or fantasy perspective, is just how little time the

757
00:30:47,520 --> 00:30:51,280
Speaker 1: Titans had to become a cohesive unit given the COVID

758
00:30:51,280 --> 00:30:53,760
Speaker 1: stuff that they dealt with, like a real legit outbreak,

759
00:30:53,760 --> 00:30:56,440
Speaker 1: their coach, their quarterback, they had tons of stuff. I

760
00:30:56,520 --> 00:30:58,720
Speaker 1: just feel like that game, I'm throwing it entirely out

761
00:30:58,920 --> 00:30:59,920
Speaker 1: in my mind for the Titan.

762
00:31:00,200 --> 00:31:01,920
Speaker 2: But Cardinals did look good.

763
00:31:01,960 --> 00:31:05,280
Speaker 1: And it takes some major, you know, strength in your

764
00:31:05,320 --> 00:31:07,400
Speaker 1: stomach to be able to bet on the Vikings. But

765
00:31:07,440 --> 00:31:09,480
Speaker 1: I do agree if I were going to place a

766
00:31:09,480 --> 00:31:12,000
Speaker 1: bet on this game, which I am not, I do

767
00:31:12,080 --> 00:31:14,239
Speaker 1: think that the Vikings are probably sid And again, this

768
00:31:14,280 --> 00:31:16,120
Speaker 1: is something where I think you don't have to rush in.

769
00:31:16,200 --> 00:31:17,520
Speaker 1: I do see a couple of three and a halfs

770
00:31:17,520 --> 00:31:19,720
Speaker 1: out there. My guess is it's gonna climb, because again

771
00:31:20,240 --> 00:31:22,080
Speaker 1: I think you're going to see a lot of public

772
00:31:22,080 --> 00:31:24,400
Speaker 1: money at that very least come in on the Cardinals.

773
00:31:25,000 --> 00:31:28,040
Speaker 1: How about the Chargers laying three to the Cowboys in

774
00:31:28,080 --> 00:31:31,640
Speaker 1: Los Angeles with a total just fifty five, just fifty

775
00:31:31,640 --> 00:31:33,560
Speaker 1: five for the total? What do you think here that

776
00:31:33,560 --> 00:31:34,120
Speaker 1: that line?

777
00:31:34,400 --> 00:31:36,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, the total actually moved quick. I think it opened

778
00:31:36,680 --> 00:31:38,280
Speaker 3: up like fifty one or fifty two. I think it's

779
00:31:38,280 --> 00:31:41,840
Speaker 3: fifty too. It opened up so already shot up another

780
00:31:41,920 --> 00:31:44,800
Speaker 3: tough game, man, because these the Cowboys have one of

781
00:31:44,840 --> 00:31:47,320
Speaker 3: the best offenses in the NFL and might maybe the

782
00:31:47,320 --> 00:31:50,360
Speaker 3: worst defense in the NFL. So, like, are either like,

783
00:31:50,560 --> 00:31:52,360
Speaker 3: is the defense gonna be all step up at all

784
00:31:52,360 --> 00:31:54,640
Speaker 3: in this game? Or is the offense going to take

785
00:31:54,640 --> 00:31:58,560
Speaker 3: a step back at all in this game? I think

786
00:31:58,600 --> 00:32:01,000
Speaker 3: I'm going to take the Cowboys in this one. I

787
00:32:01,080 --> 00:32:03,520
Speaker 3: believe in Dak Prescott. Iiman he torched that that that

788
00:32:03,560 --> 00:32:06,640
Speaker 3: Buccaneers defense, which is a very good defensive unit. Last week,

789
00:32:07,640 --> 00:32:09,560
Speaker 3: I didn't love what I saw from the Chargers offense,

790
00:32:09,600 --> 00:32:11,840
Speaker 3: but obviously they're going up against the Washington defense that's

791
00:32:11,880 --> 00:32:13,480
Speaker 3: that's one of the best in the league. Another tough

792
00:32:13,520 --> 00:32:16,080
Speaker 3: game to call. I'll take the Cowboys.

793
00:32:16,080 --> 00:32:17,040
Speaker 2: So but tough.

794
00:32:17,600 --> 00:32:19,200
Speaker 1: Do you think this is where the line ends up

795
00:32:19,360 --> 00:32:21,240
Speaker 1: at three or do you think it moves one way

796
00:32:21,320 --> 00:32:22,240
Speaker 1: or the other throughout the week.

797
00:32:23,120 --> 00:32:26,560
Speaker 3: I don't think there's gonna be much movement. I agree,

798
00:32:26,640 --> 00:32:29,160
Speaker 3: at least my My general feeling right now is this

799
00:32:29,200 --> 00:32:30,800
Speaker 3: is one that people are kind of torn on. They're

800
00:32:30,800 --> 00:32:32,440
Speaker 3: a little split. And when you get that, I mean,

801
00:32:32,480 --> 00:32:34,400
Speaker 3: it's not like the Cardinals game where I where where

802
00:32:34,440 --> 00:32:36,000
Speaker 3: we imagine a ton of money is gonna come in

803
00:32:36,040 --> 00:32:37,920
Speaker 3: on the Cardinals. I think people are kind of split

804
00:32:37,960 --> 00:32:40,000
Speaker 3: because I don't think everyone really knows what to do

805
00:32:40,040 --> 00:32:41,120
Speaker 3: with the Cowboys yet either.

806
00:32:41,640 --> 00:32:44,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree. I think it's probably gonna land here

807
00:32:44,560 --> 00:32:46,960
Speaker 1: at three. I think you're gonna get money on both sides.

808
00:32:47,560 --> 00:32:50,560
Speaker 1: And with the total, Ian, I mean, it's fifty five,

809
00:32:50,760 --> 00:32:52,400
Speaker 1: but I can't take the under on it. Like I

810
00:32:52,440 --> 00:32:56,160
Speaker 1: recognize how insane that total is. I completely understand that's

811
00:32:56,160 --> 00:32:59,600
Speaker 1: a banana's total, and I can't. I can't go. I'm

812
00:32:59,600 --> 00:33:01,160
Speaker 1: not gonna take the over. I think I'm just staying

813
00:33:01,160 --> 00:33:01,920
Speaker 1: away from the total.

814
00:33:02,400 --> 00:33:03,959
Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't think I can. Yeah, I can't take

815
00:33:03,960 --> 00:33:07,400
Speaker 3: it undering a Cowboys game. I'm not subjecting myself to

816
00:33:07,400 --> 00:33:08,960
Speaker 3: that kind of torture. That is fair.

817
00:33:09,600 --> 00:33:10,680
Speaker 2: I like it. I like it.

818
00:33:10,800 --> 00:33:13,560
Speaker 1: Seahawks at Homeling five and a half to the Titans,

819
00:33:13,560 --> 00:33:15,280
Speaker 1: who are obviously coming off a little bit of a

820
00:33:15,640 --> 00:33:18,400
Speaker 1: lacking and the total at fifty four, what do you think?

821
00:33:18,640 --> 00:33:20,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, Seahawks, I'm gonna continue to fade the Titans, Like

822
00:33:21,760 --> 00:33:23,680
Speaker 3: I said, they were at eleven to five team last year.

823
00:33:24,000 --> 00:33:27,160
Speaker 3: I think it's to be eleven and five with so

824
00:33:27,480 --> 00:33:29,320
Speaker 3: if I'm correct, They're twenty eight or twenty ninth in

825
00:33:29,320 --> 00:33:31,360
Speaker 3: opponent yards per game last season. The only teams that

826
00:33:31,360 --> 00:33:34,640
Speaker 3: were worse were the Lions, Jaguars, and Texans, and that's

827
00:33:34,640 --> 00:33:36,560
Speaker 3: not good. I don't know how a team can get

828
00:33:36,560 --> 00:33:38,320
Speaker 3: to eleven and five with that kind of defense. And

829
00:33:38,320 --> 00:33:40,960
Speaker 3: they did make some improvements in the offseason. I don't

830
00:33:41,000 --> 00:33:43,560
Speaker 3: think it was enough, though, Especially their passing defense is

831
00:33:43,600 --> 00:33:46,040
Speaker 3: not good. We saw what Kyler Murray did through the

832
00:33:46,080 --> 00:33:48,800
Speaker 3: air last week, and now you got Russell Wilson against them,

833
00:33:48,880 --> 00:33:51,320
Speaker 3: so I mean, good luck with that. So I'm going

834
00:33:51,360 --> 00:33:52,840
Speaker 3: to take the Seahawks in this one. I'm going to

835
00:33:52,920 --> 00:33:55,560
Speaker 3: keep fading the Titans until I think the lines are

836
00:33:55,680 --> 00:33:58,480
Speaker 3: set at a more appropriate number for how I kind

837
00:33:58,480 --> 00:34:02,200
Speaker 3: of evaluate them, and right now they shouldn't like I would.

838
00:34:01,920 --> 00:34:04,360
Speaker 3: I would set the Seahawks probably at six points right now.

839
00:34:04,680 --> 00:34:07,560
Speaker 1: Okay, Yeah, I don't want it. I just want to

840
00:34:07,560 --> 00:34:09,399
Speaker 1: stay away from this one. I see everything you're saying.

841
00:34:09,480 --> 00:34:11,719
Speaker 1: I'm not fading the Titans nearly as much as you are.

842
00:34:11,719 --> 00:34:14,360
Speaker 1: I understand why you are, and I think the Seahawks

843
00:34:14,520 --> 00:34:17,080
Speaker 1: are going to do what they did last year, which

844
00:34:17,080 --> 00:34:20,080
Speaker 1: has come out really hot, especially offensively before they kind

845
00:34:20,120 --> 00:34:22,120
Speaker 1: of turtle up a little bit because of they have

846
00:34:22,160 --> 00:34:23,600
Speaker 1: one bad game or something like that.

847
00:34:23,880 --> 00:34:25,440
Speaker 2: But still, I could also see.

848
00:34:25,320 --> 00:34:27,759
Speaker 1: A scenario where the Titans and Mike Rabel, who I

849
00:34:27,800 --> 00:34:30,640
Speaker 1: respect a ton as a coach, kind of lays into

850
00:34:30,680 --> 00:34:33,480
Speaker 1: them and they come out much sharper here. The total also, like,

851
00:34:33,719 --> 00:34:35,560
Speaker 1: I'd love to go over on this because I think

852
00:34:35,600 --> 00:34:37,040
Speaker 1: there's gonna be a ton of scoring here. I don't

853
00:34:37,040 --> 00:34:39,279
Speaker 1: think the Seahawks defense is good enough to shut down

854
00:34:39,280 --> 00:34:42,160
Speaker 1: the Titans. With an extra week here to get better,

855
00:34:42,160 --> 00:34:44,160
Speaker 1: and I think the Seahawks can pretty much score it will.

856
00:34:44,560 --> 00:34:47,319
Speaker 1: But at fifty four, man, I just don't. I don't

857
00:34:47,360 --> 00:34:49,040
Speaker 1: think I can go near it. It's not a total

858
00:34:49,080 --> 00:34:49,799
Speaker 1: that I want to go near.

859
00:34:49,800 --> 00:34:50,239
Speaker 2: How about you?

860
00:34:51,719 --> 00:34:53,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think I would. I think I would take

861
00:34:53,480 --> 00:34:55,600
Speaker 3: the under. Obviously, we know the Titans love to run

862
00:34:55,600 --> 00:34:56,839
Speaker 3: the ball, and when you run the ball, I mean

863
00:34:56,880 --> 00:34:59,319
Speaker 3: obviously we all know the clock keeps going less time

864
00:34:59,320 --> 00:35:03,200
Speaker 3: on the clock, less time for points. That's tough, Yeah,

865
00:35:03,239 --> 00:35:05,080
Speaker 3: because of the Titans defense is it's kind of tough

866
00:35:05,080 --> 00:35:08,080
Speaker 3: to bet on under with the Titans defense, But I

867
00:35:08,080 --> 00:35:08,600
Speaker 3: think I'd go.

868
00:35:08,600 --> 00:35:11,759
Speaker 1: Under, all right, Chiefs visiting the Ravens the game we

869
00:35:11,800 --> 00:35:13,959
Speaker 1: all deserve. Again, we have not seen the Ravens yet.

870
00:35:14,120 --> 00:35:16,759
Speaker 1: Hopefully they look like what we expected them to look.

871
00:35:16,800 --> 00:35:19,160
Speaker 1: They've dealt with several injuries coming in. But as of

872
00:35:19,239 --> 00:35:23,480
Speaker 1: right now, the Chiefs are favored by three and the

873
00:35:23,680 --> 00:35:26,160
Speaker 1: total is at fifty five and a half. These totals

874
00:35:26,160 --> 00:35:28,920
Speaker 1: man just nonsensical almost. By the way, one of my

875
00:35:28,920 --> 00:35:31,440
Speaker 1: favorite memories, I think from last year is when the

876
00:35:31,520 --> 00:35:33,719
Speaker 1: Ravens were favored against the Chiefs. I'm pretty sure that

877
00:35:33,760 --> 00:35:36,520
Speaker 1: was last year, and I remember taking Patrick Mahomes as

878
00:35:36,520 --> 00:35:39,600
Speaker 1: a dog and just feeling like it was like the dumbest,

879
00:35:39,680 --> 00:35:42,399
Speaker 1: like goofy. It's like when you, like, you know, win

880
00:35:42,440 --> 00:35:44,400
Speaker 1: the lottery or something like that. It was so ridiculous.

881
00:35:44,520 --> 00:35:46,880
Speaker 1: Here not a dog obviously laying three in Baltimore.

882
00:35:46,880 --> 00:35:47,399
Speaker 2: What do you think?

883
00:35:48,360 --> 00:35:50,439
Speaker 3: Yeah, once again, a little tough because we haven't seen

884
00:35:50,719 --> 00:35:54,239
Speaker 3: the Ravens yet. But I mean, got to take the Chiefs, man,

885
00:35:54,680 --> 00:35:56,520
Speaker 3: I mean, I say, got to take the Chiefs. But

886
00:35:56,560 --> 00:35:58,120
Speaker 3: then again, I mean the Chiefs have not been good

887
00:35:58,200 --> 00:35:59,759
Speaker 3: covering the spread. They didn't cover the spread in week

888
00:35:59,760 --> 00:36:01,440
Speaker 3: when either but I was on the Browns. But anytime

889
00:36:01,440 --> 00:36:03,720
Speaker 3: you can get the Chiefs at this low of a number.

890
00:36:03,760 --> 00:36:05,600
Speaker 3: I think you have to take them. Where you want

891
00:36:05,600 --> 00:36:07,360
Speaker 3: to avoid the Chiefs is when you get up closer

892
00:36:07,840 --> 00:36:10,560
Speaker 3: to a touchdown because it's tough to win football games

893
00:36:10,560 --> 00:36:14,080
Speaker 3: by more than a single score. But I think the

894
00:36:14,160 --> 00:36:16,839
Speaker 3: Ravens might regress a little bit this year. I'm very

895
00:36:16,880 --> 00:36:18,680
Speaker 3: interesting to see and hopefully we get a little bit

896
00:36:18,719 --> 00:36:20,400
Speaker 3: of a sense of it tonight. What Lamar Jackson is

897
00:36:20,400 --> 00:36:21,560
Speaker 3: going to be like because he took a little bit

898
00:36:21,600 --> 00:36:23,520
Speaker 3: of a step back last year. So is he going

899
00:36:23,600 --> 00:36:25,080
Speaker 3: to return to MVP form or is he going to

900
00:36:25,160 --> 00:36:27,480
Speaker 3: look more like he did last year? So this is

901
00:36:27,920 --> 00:36:30,560
Speaker 3: one that's it's very tough to call without seeing one

902
00:36:30,600 --> 00:36:32,799
Speaker 3: of the two teams involved. Like I feel like I

903
00:36:32,840 --> 00:36:34,480
Speaker 3: have a better sense of the Raiders even though I

904
00:36:34,480 --> 00:36:37,160
Speaker 3: haven't seen them this year. Where the Ravens, I really

905
00:36:37,200 --> 00:36:39,319
Speaker 3: want to see them, get a sense for them. And also,

906
00:36:39,320 --> 00:36:41,520
Speaker 3: obviously we all know how banged up their backfield is.

907
00:36:42,280 --> 00:36:44,120
Speaker 3: I had my phone on the other day. I thought

908
00:36:44,120 --> 00:36:45,920
Speaker 3: I might get a call from the Ravens to get

909
00:36:45,960 --> 00:36:47,320
Speaker 3: something because there's.

910
00:36:47,160 --> 00:36:48,880
Speaker 2: No don't worry get up there.

911
00:36:49,440 --> 00:36:53,120
Speaker 3: So I got it back the Chiefs and I would guess.

912
00:36:53,280 --> 00:36:55,839
Speaker 3: My guess would be I mean, unless the Ravens blow

913
00:36:55,880 --> 00:36:57,759
Speaker 3: up the Raiders tonight. Now I might look stupid in

914
00:36:57,800 --> 00:37:00,400
Speaker 3: hindsight saying this, but I think the spreadsbably going to

915
00:37:00,400 --> 00:37:01,359
Speaker 3: get bigger after this game.

916
00:37:01,680 --> 00:37:03,640
Speaker 2: After this game, yeah, I think that's right.

917
00:37:04,200 --> 00:37:06,239
Speaker 1: So again, if you're listening to it, people are probably

918
00:37:06,280 --> 00:37:08,239
Speaker 1: listening to this after the game is over anyway, so

919
00:37:08,280 --> 00:37:10,040
Speaker 1: maybe the line has already moved. It is three, and

920
00:37:10,080 --> 00:37:12,719
Speaker 1: it's three everywhere, like, there's no non threes that I'm

921
00:37:12,719 --> 00:37:14,920
Speaker 1: looking at in the market, because I think that that

922
00:37:15,160 --> 00:37:17,520
Speaker 1: is probably the right line necessarily.

923
00:37:17,760 --> 00:37:19,799
Speaker 2: But I would take the Chiefs if it gets over

924
00:37:19,840 --> 00:37:20,359
Speaker 2: a field goal.

925
00:37:20,400 --> 00:37:22,360
Speaker 1: I do worry a little bit, because you're right, the

926
00:37:22,400 --> 00:37:25,200
Speaker 1: Chiefs are a phenomenal team, but not great at covering

927
00:37:25,239 --> 00:37:28,160
Speaker 1: the spread necessarily. If it's at three, I feel fine

928
00:37:28,200 --> 00:37:30,120
Speaker 1: because I really do feel confident that a the Chiefs

929
00:37:30,120 --> 00:37:31,880
Speaker 1: are going to win this game again without having seen

930
00:37:32,600 --> 00:37:36,399
Speaker 1: this go, and second that it's going to be by

931
00:37:36,640 --> 00:37:38,920
Speaker 1: at least a field goal. So I feel comfortable at three.

932
00:37:39,000 --> 00:37:41,120
Speaker 1: When it gets three and a half, the total is bananas.

933
00:37:41,160 --> 00:37:43,040
Speaker 1: I'm not even like, I'm just not going near fifty

934
00:37:43,080 --> 00:37:45,480
Speaker 1: five and a half points. Bread, I get it. Patrick,

935
00:37:45,560 --> 00:37:47,279
Speaker 1: The Chiefs can do that by themselves if they really

936
00:37:47,360 --> 00:37:50,040
Speaker 1: had to. But I'm just staying away. Last one here,

937
00:37:50,600 --> 00:37:55,239
Speaker 1: a really really really angry Packers team at home on

938
00:37:55,360 --> 00:37:58,719
Speaker 1: Monday Night football against the Lions. Laying ten and a

939
00:37:58,760 --> 00:38:01,200
Speaker 1: half points there, Get sure that hook is there, because

940
00:38:01,440 --> 00:38:03,280
Speaker 1: they're going to make you If you want the Packers,

941
00:38:03,320 --> 00:38:06,120
Speaker 1: they're going to make you mad. And total of forty

942
00:38:06,160 --> 00:38:07,240
Speaker 1: eight and a half points.

943
00:38:08,040 --> 00:38:10,279
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm realizing now that I like three double digit

944
00:38:10,320 --> 00:38:13,360
Speaker 3: favorites in the NFL and that's.

945
00:38:12,040 --> 00:38:14,200
Speaker 2: Not What would the spread have to be for you

946
00:38:14,280 --> 00:38:16,439
Speaker 2: to not take the Packers in this game? And that's

947
00:38:16,440 --> 00:38:16,920
Speaker 2: the question.

948
00:38:16,960 --> 00:38:18,799
Speaker 3: I think it'd have to be two touchdowns. I think

949
00:38:18,840 --> 00:38:20,480
Speaker 3: it would have to be. I mean, but then again,

950
00:38:20,520 --> 00:38:23,160
Speaker 3: the Lions put up four hundred and thirty yards last week,

951
00:38:23,239 --> 00:38:25,480
Speaker 3: so maybe the Lions aren't as bad as everyone thinks.

952
00:38:25,480 --> 00:38:28,840
Speaker 3: Maybe Dan Campbell's you know, kind of raw raw, you know, motivation,

953
00:38:29,000 --> 00:38:31,720
Speaker 3: kind of tactics is kind of working for the Lions.

954
00:38:31,760 --> 00:38:34,000
Speaker 3: So it's hard to really argue too much against the

955
00:38:34,000 --> 00:38:38,879
Speaker 3: Lions right now. But yeah, the Packers, I would think,

956
00:38:38,920 --> 00:38:41,160
Speaker 3: are angry. Now. I'm not never gonna handicap too much

957
00:38:41,200 --> 00:38:43,120
Speaker 3: based on what I assume someone's emotions are going to

958
00:38:43,160 --> 00:38:46,080
Speaker 3: be heading into a game, but they're either the number

959
00:38:46,080 --> 00:38:48,239
Speaker 3: one or number two scoring offense last year, they're going

960
00:38:48,280 --> 00:38:51,000
Speaker 3: up against what it's supposed well, they are the bad

961
00:38:51,040 --> 00:38:53,120
Speaker 3: defense because even though that game was closed to put

962
00:38:53,160 --> 00:38:54,799
Speaker 3: up a ton of points on them, correct, the green

963
00:38:54,840 --> 00:38:56,799
Speaker 3: Bay green Bay will score. It's is whether or not

964
00:38:56,880 --> 00:38:58,160
Speaker 3: are the lines going to be able to keep it

965
00:38:58,200 --> 00:39:00,960
Speaker 3: close enough during the game. So yeah, I will back

966
00:39:01,040 --> 00:39:03,560
Speaker 3: the Packers in this one, but I might need it.

967
00:39:04,200 --> 00:39:05,799
Speaker 3: I need it, might need to reevaluate some of my

968
00:39:05,840 --> 00:39:07,640
Speaker 3: pass picks because it could take it three double edgit

969
00:39:07,760 --> 00:39:09,759
Speaker 3: favorites makes me worry, but I like that freedom, so

970
00:39:09,800 --> 00:39:10,880
Speaker 3: I'll probably stick with them.

971
00:39:11,040 --> 00:39:14,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that the Packers either, ID saide. Oh

972
00:39:14,120 --> 00:39:16,000
Speaker 1: look see, this is a New York experience for you.

973
00:39:16,040 --> 00:39:18,600
Speaker 1: If everyone can hear that in the background, Ian has

974
00:39:18,640 --> 00:39:20,920
Speaker 1: moved to New York. It's fine, You're fine. They're not

975
00:39:20,960 --> 00:39:25,560
Speaker 1: there for you, I promise. Yeah, I missed my old sounds.

976
00:39:25,239 --> 00:39:26,040
Speaker 2: Of New York anyway.

977
00:39:26,280 --> 00:39:28,080
Speaker 1: Uh yeah, I agree with you that even at ten

978
00:39:28,120 --> 00:39:30,480
Speaker 1: and a half, I leaned towards the Packers. I'm actually

979
00:39:30,480 --> 00:39:33,279
Speaker 1: a little more excited about the total because I do

980
00:39:33,320 --> 00:39:35,360
Speaker 1: think that the Packers. First of all, the Lions have

981
00:39:35,440 --> 00:39:37,720
Speaker 1: terrible defense. I have a terrible secondary, and Jeff Okuda

982
00:39:37,880 --> 00:39:40,359
Speaker 1: now has I think an achilles injury. So a bad

983
00:39:40,400 --> 00:39:43,000
Speaker 1: secondary just gets worse. I think the Packers are going

984
00:39:43,040 --> 00:39:45,640
Speaker 1: to put up monstrous amount of points in this game.

985
00:39:45,719 --> 00:39:47,640
Speaker 1: I think it's gonna be ton and I think that

986
00:39:47,719 --> 00:39:50,359
Speaker 1: the Lions, I think they'll probably be able to do

987
00:39:50,520 --> 00:39:52,480
Speaker 1: close not what they did last time, but in terms

988
00:39:52,520 --> 00:39:54,799
Speaker 1: of the back door sort of like this game is over,

989
00:39:55,120 --> 00:39:57,560
Speaker 1: the Packers don't want to get injured on defense, They're

990
00:39:57,560 --> 00:39:58,600
Speaker 1: gonna step back a little bit.

991
00:39:58,600 --> 00:40:00,239
Speaker 2: There's gonna be forty five thousand.

992
00:40:00,040 --> 00:40:02,879
Speaker 1: Jump offs to Jamal Williams and DeAndre Swift and they'll

993
00:40:02,880 --> 00:40:03,520
Speaker 1: be able to get there.

994
00:40:03,560 --> 00:40:06,040
Speaker 2: So that actually is a number that I would bet.

995
00:40:06,120 --> 00:40:08,200
Speaker 1: I don't think that it's necessarily going to climb throughout

996
00:40:08,200 --> 00:40:09,719
Speaker 1: the year, like I don't think throughout the week. I

997
00:40:09,719 --> 00:40:11,880
Speaker 1: don't think we're getting a fifty or fifty one. But

998
00:40:11,920 --> 00:40:13,960
Speaker 1: at the same time, forty eight and a half I

999
00:40:14,280 --> 00:40:15,920
Speaker 1: kind of lean the over because I view a lot

1000
00:40:15,960 --> 00:40:16,600
Speaker 1: of points.

1001
00:40:16,360 --> 00:40:17,560
Speaker 2: Coming in this game. What do you think of that?

1002
00:40:18,000 --> 00:40:20,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, give me the over. I forevery I agree with

1003
00:40:20,480 --> 00:40:22,160
Speaker 3: every single point you had about the over.

1004
00:40:22,560 --> 00:40:23,680
Speaker 2: I love it. That's it.

1005
00:40:23,800 --> 00:40:26,040
Speaker 1: Those are all the games. Man, I'm so happy football

1006
00:40:26,120 --> 00:40:28,560
Speaker 1: is back. We are done recording this before we get

1007
00:40:28,600 --> 00:40:31,719
Speaker 1: to look idiotic after, you know, whatever happens with the

1008
00:40:31,800 --> 00:40:34,160
Speaker 1: Raiders in the Ravens game. But Ian, you have been

1009
00:40:34,160 --> 00:40:37,000
Speaker 1: a guest on the show several times. It is always

1010
00:40:37,040 --> 00:40:39,480
Speaker 1: a pleasure to have you. I really appreciate it. Tell

1011
00:40:39,480 --> 00:40:41,560
Speaker 1: everybody where they can find you and your work.

1012
00:40:42,239 --> 00:40:44,640
Speaker 3: Yeah. Absolutely, the best place is always a Twitter. As

1013
00:40:44,640 --> 00:40:46,479
Speaker 3: you mentioned at the start of the show, though there

1014
00:40:46,560 --> 00:40:49,000
Speaker 3: Ian mac Bett's I A I N M A C

1015
00:40:49,560 --> 00:40:51,319
Speaker 3: B E T s my parents out of the thrown

1016
00:40:51,320 --> 00:40:53,280
Speaker 3: extra eye into my name to make my life difficult.

1017
00:40:53,880 --> 00:40:56,960
Speaker 3: Also check out bet Sided and the Bacon Bets podcast

1018
00:40:57,000 --> 00:40:58,959
Speaker 3: comes out Thursday, and that's when I give my pick.

1019
00:40:59,000 --> 00:41:00,839
Speaker 3: I call it the Road to two seventy two this

1020
00:41:00,920 --> 00:41:03,839
Speaker 3: year because I give a pick for every single all

1021
00:41:03,880 --> 00:41:05,680
Speaker 3: two hundred and seventy two NFL games. So keep an

1022
00:41:05,719 --> 00:41:06,200
Speaker 3: eye out for that.

1023
00:41:06,719 --> 00:41:08,040
Speaker 2: I mean I really look forward.

1024
00:41:08,040 --> 00:41:09,439
Speaker 1: I did see that you were doing that, because yeah,

1025
00:41:09,440 --> 00:41:11,320
Speaker 1: I think you have it pinned your Twitter profile.

1026
00:41:11,360 --> 00:41:13,520
Speaker 2: But man, God bless you good luck with it.

1027
00:41:13,560 --> 00:41:15,600
Speaker 1: I hope you again have a profitable year, because that

1028
00:41:15,760 --> 00:41:18,160
Speaker 1: is not easy anyway. We will be back later in

1029
00:41:18,200 --> 00:41:20,640
Speaker 1: the week Joe and Joe, Piece of P and Scott

1030
00:41:20,640 --> 00:41:22,680
Speaker 1: Bogmhen are going to do the college Football Breakdown, and

1031
00:41:22,680 --> 00:41:25,400
Speaker 1: then I'll be back on Thursday with another guest talking

1032
00:41:25,440 --> 00:41:28,280
Speaker 1: about our best bets for Week two.

1033
00:41:28,120 --> 00:41:29,320
Speaker 2: Of the NFL season.

1034
00:41:29,680 --> 00:41:31,360
Speaker 1: Thanks for tuning in, everybody, and I'll talk to you

1035
00:41:31,400 --> 00:41:46,160
Speaker 1: again in a couple of days.