1 00:00:03,040 --> 00:00:05,920 Speaker 1: From Bloomberg News and I Heart Radio. It's the big take. 2 00:00:08,160 --> 00:00:13,160 Speaker 1: I'm West Cassova today. How Iran's leaders have kept hold 3 00:00:13,240 --> 00:00:18,479 Speaker 1: on power despite intense pressure from inside the country and out. 4 00:00:26,440 --> 00:00:30,760 Speaker 1: Punitive US and European sanctions intended in part to persuade 5 00:00:30,760 --> 00:00:34,040 Speaker 1: Iran to stop its program to develop a nuclear weapon, 6 00:00:34,240 --> 00:00:38,440 Speaker 1: have crippled the country's economy, and now inside Iran we 7 00:00:38,479 --> 00:00:42,360 Speaker 1: see these dramatic scenes of citizens, especially young people, risking 8 00:00:42,400 --> 00:00:45,159 Speaker 1: their lives to protest the government in the streets by 9 00:00:45,200 --> 00:00:50,800 Speaker 1: the thousands. Widespread demonstrations erupted in September over the death 10 00:00:50,920 --> 00:00:54,320 Speaker 1: in police custody of Massa Amini. She was a twenty 11 00:00:54,400 --> 00:00:57,120 Speaker 1: two year old woman, and she was arrested by so 12 00:00:57,200 --> 00:01:02,520 Speaker 1: called morality police for allegedly disobeying around strict dress code 13 00:01:02,560 --> 00:01:07,080 Speaker 1: for women. The protesters demanded, among other things, an end 14 00:01:07,120 --> 00:01:10,400 Speaker 1: to religious laws that require women to cover their heads 15 00:01:10,680 --> 00:01:14,360 Speaker 1: and that deny them some basic rights. The unrest has 16 00:01:14,400 --> 00:01:17,920 Speaker 1: since broadened into a widespread rebuke of the government and 17 00:01:17,959 --> 00:01:21,280 Speaker 1: its leaders. Some protests have called for the dismantling of 18 00:01:21,319 --> 00:01:25,080 Speaker 1: the Islamic nature of the state. The government has responded 19 00:01:25,160 --> 00:01:29,039 Speaker 1: with force. Thousands of protesters have been arrested and some 20 00:01:29,080 --> 00:01:32,400 Speaker 1: have been put to death, and yet even with international 21 00:01:32,440 --> 00:01:36,800 Speaker 1: economic pressure and rising internal discontent, there are a few 22 00:01:36,840 --> 00:01:40,960 Speaker 1: signs that the government is weakening. Bloomberg Senior international affairs 23 00:01:41,000 --> 00:01:45,160 Speaker 1: correspondent Mark Champion joins me from London to explain what 24 00:01:45,319 --> 00:01:48,760 Speaker 1: to make of the turmoil happening now in Iran and 25 00:01:48,800 --> 00:01:55,600 Speaker 1: how long and unpopular regime can remain in power. Mark, 26 00:01:55,680 --> 00:02:01,360 Speaker 1: There's been so much happening inside around divisions within Irammian society, 27 00:02:01,520 --> 00:02:06,400 Speaker 1: the government and especially the leader, like trying to keep 28 00:02:06,440 --> 00:02:11,280 Speaker 1: control of unrest by students, especially young women, who are 29 00:02:11,760 --> 00:02:15,600 Speaker 1: really pushing up against these very strict laws. Can you 30 00:02:15,639 --> 00:02:18,920 Speaker 1: give us a sense of what's happening now in the 31 00:02:18,919 --> 00:02:23,040 Speaker 1: wake of all of these protests, arrests, and prosecutions where 32 00:02:23,040 --> 00:02:25,760 Speaker 1: people are being put to death. I started going to 33 00:02:26,720 --> 00:02:32,000 Speaker 1: Iranovo twenty years ago. It's different from all the iterations 34 00:02:32,160 --> 00:02:35,519 Speaker 1: of upset. Before you know, you can say that he 35 00:02:35,520 --> 00:02:39,239 Speaker 1: has reached a tipping point. There are reports Iranian forces 36 00:02:39,280 --> 00:02:43,959 Speaker 1: are using bullets and tear gas on anti government protesters around. 37 00:02:44,000 --> 00:02:47,040 Speaker 1: The president has said chaos will not be tolerated. Brave 38 00:02:47,120 --> 00:02:50,720 Speaker 1: Iranians of all ages and walks of life, have been 39 00:02:50,760 --> 00:02:53,960 Speaker 1: taking to the streets calling for freedom, equality and the 40 00:02:54,080 --> 00:02:57,400 Speaker 1: end of Islamic rule. The revolution is more than forty 41 00:02:57,480 --> 00:03:03,040 Speaker 1: years old. It's a spent force now. The people who 42 00:03:03,040 --> 00:03:06,880 Speaker 1: were leading the country there in their eighties. For them, 43 00:03:06,960 --> 00:03:12,320 Speaker 1: the revolution was enormously exciting and they were completely committed, 44 00:03:12,520 --> 00:03:15,360 Speaker 1: and they still recall it in those terms. But the 45 00:03:15,520 --> 00:03:19,400 Speaker 1: vast majority of the population was born long after and 46 00:03:19,720 --> 00:03:23,840 Speaker 1: they don't have nothing connecting them to the revolution really, 47 00:03:24,200 --> 00:03:27,320 Speaker 1: and they've come to really hate the regime. There was 48 00:03:28,040 --> 00:03:31,880 Speaker 1: some sort of cohabitation going on, which was kind of 49 00:03:31,919 --> 00:03:37,760 Speaker 1: mechanized by these very managed elections, but they were offered acceptable, 50 00:03:38,000 --> 00:03:41,320 Speaker 1: moderate to conservative candidates that they could vote for who 51 00:03:41,360 --> 00:03:45,320 Speaker 1: offered some sort of improvement from very hardline views on 52 00:03:45,400 --> 00:03:47,680 Speaker 1: things like, you know, wearing a hitch ab and so on. 53 00:03:47,800 --> 00:03:52,400 Speaker 1: And that's gone. With the last election, all choice was removed. 54 00:03:52,800 --> 00:03:57,480 Speaker 1: The turnout was absolutely minimal, So all pretense having some 55 00:03:57,560 --> 00:04:01,240 Speaker 1: sorts of connection with the population is has gone. And 56 00:04:01,400 --> 00:04:03,880 Speaker 1: I think that really is a tipping point. Now that's 57 00:04:03,920 --> 00:04:06,920 Speaker 1: a completely separate question as to whether that means that 58 00:04:06,960 --> 00:04:09,960 Speaker 1: the regime's days are numbered, and that is you know, 59 00:04:10,120 --> 00:04:13,400 Speaker 1: much much less clear that that's the case. I've spoken 60 00:04:13,400 --> 00:04:15,600 Speaker 1: to a few different sort of diplomats and officials about 61 00:04:15,600 --> 00:04:18,240 Speaker 1: this and sort of just asking them here, so what 62 00:04:18,279 --> 00:04:21,240 Speaker 1: would it take for there to be a collapse of 63 00:04:21,240 --> 00:04:24,200 Speaker 1: the regime, and general view seems to be and I 64 00:04:24,200 --> 00:04:27,480 Speaker 1: think it's probably right that a big mistake made by 65 00:04:27,480 --> 00:04:30,880 Speaker 1: the security forces, where in one instance they kill large 66 00:04:30,960 --> 00:04:34,080 Speaker 1: numbers of people, so a big mistake that's simply the 67 00:04:34,160 --> 00:04:38,039 Speaker 1: lid just kind of comes off, and they seem to 68 00:04:38,839 --> 00:04:42,560 Speaker 1: have avoided doing that, and the protests have subsided. They've 69 00:04:42,600 --> 00:04:46,240 Speaker 1: kind of gone more online, more into sort of daily life, 70 00:04:46,640 --> 00:04:49,039 Speaker 1: which again is very dangerous for the regime because it 71 00:04:49,080 --> 00:04:52,279 Speaker 1: just says that their idea of how we ran should 72 00:04:52,320 --> 00:04:55,280 Speaker 1: be is just completely separate from how people want to 73 00:04:55,320 --> 00:04:57,960 Speaker 1: live their lives. But it's safer in terms of the 74 00:04:58,000 --> 00:05:02,040 Speaker 1: regime's immediate survive And the other possibility is, you know, 75 00:05:02,080 --> 00:05:05,600 Speaker 1: it's a dangerous moment for the regime when the Supreme 76 00:05:05,760 --> 00:05:08,640 Speaker 1: Leader passes away. He's an older man and you know 77 00:05:08,680 --> 00:05:12,679 Speaker 1: he won't live forever. There is no obvious candidate who 78 00:05:12,800 --> 00:05:16,760 Speaker 1: would be acceptable for the vast majority of the population, 79 00:05:17,360 --> 00:05:20,280 Speaker 1: and a lot of the legitimacy of the revolution and 80 00:05:20,320 --> 00:05:23,280 Speaker 1: the regime is embedded in the supreme leader. So it's 81 00:05:23,279 --> 00:05:26,039 Speaker 1: a dangerous moment for them when that happens and how 82 00:05:26,080 --> 00:05:28,600 Speaker 1: they handle it. If they can handle that, if they 83 00:05:28,600 --> 00:05:31,279 Speaker 1: can avoid the big mistakes, this could go on for 84 00:05:31,360 --> 00:05:36,880 Speaker 1: some time, and it's just a tragic reality. This has 85 00:05:36,920 --> 00:05:40,080 Speaker 1: been true for quite some time, this disconnect, and we've 86 00:05:40,120 --> 00:05:43,839 Speaker 1: seen over the years the strict enforcement ebb and flow 87 00:05:44,800 --> 00:05:46,840 Speaker 1: where it would be relaxed for a while and then 88 00:05:46,839 --> 00:05:52,839 Speaker 1: suddenly cracked down. What made the government become so forceful 89 00:05:53,240 --> 00:05:57,080 Speaker 1: in its enforcement of these rules? I think really the 90 00:05:57,120 --> 00:06:02,279 Speaker 1: best answer is hubris the it they had finally got 91 00:06:02,400 --> 00:06:06,120 Speaker 1: rid of President Ruhani and his team. They were those 92 00:06:06,200 --> 00:06:09,520 Speaker 1: kind of conservative moderates that had been elected some time before, 93 00:06:09,560 --> 00:06:12,200 Speaker 1: and they had kept the lid on some of the 94 00:06:12,400 --> 00:06:16,880 Speaker 1: proclivities of the real heartliners. With them swept away, you 95 00:06:16,960 --> 00:06:20,680 Speaker 1: then have you know a new president I see who 96 00:06:20,839 --> 00:06:24,080 Speaker 1: is you know a true heartliner. Over the years, he's 97 00:06:24,600 --> 00:06:28,400 Speaker 1: played this game in order to keep people on board 98 00:06:28,480 --> 00:06:30,119 Speaker 1: and give them a little bit of what they want. 99 00:06:30,240 --> 00:06:33,000 Speaker 1: But now he's swung back to the hardline side. You 100 00:06:33,040 --> 00:06:36,960 Speaker 1: know he did with Ahmadinijad before Honey, and now he 101 00:06:37,040 --> 00:06:39,960 Speaker 1: swung back again. We see a lot of young people 102 00:06:40,160 --> 00:06:43,480 Speaker 1: who are risking a lot by going out into the 103 00:06:43,480 --> 00:06:46,720 Speaker 1: streets to protest. But is that true also of the 104 00:06:46,839 --> 00:06:50,400 Speaker 1: vast majority of the population. You describe most people as 105 00:06:50,480 --> 00:06:54,400 Speaker 1: having little connection to the old revolution and that spirit, 106 00:06:54,839 --> 00:06:57,840 Speaker 1: and yet most of the population doesn't seem to be 107 00:06:58,080 --> 00:07:01,560 Speaker 1: rising up, even if they're sympathetic to a cause. That's 108 00:07:01,600 --> 00:07:06,000 Speaker 1: the key, right that, so long as the government avoids 109 00:07:06,040 --> 00:07:11,480 Speaker 1: some really massive mistake and then really large bloodshed that 110 00:07:11,680 --> 00:07:15,920 Speaker 1: ignites the necessary level of outrage to get ordinary people 111 00:07:15,960 --> 00:07:18,480 Speaker 1: out into the street, ordinary people who wouldn't normally take 112 00:07:18,520 --> 00:07:21,800 Speaker 1: that risk, And that's what would be a desperate threat 113 00:07:21,840 --> 00:07:24,280 Speaker 1: to the regime and what they've tried and so far 114 00:07:24,320 --> 00:07:28,440 Speaker 1: succeeded to avoid. But you're right, much of the population 115 00:07:28,600 --> 00:07:30,560 Speaker 1: is not willing to come out. That the risks are 116 00:07:30,560 --> 00:07:33,480 Speaker 1: extremely high, and that is why the regime can survive. 117 00:07:34,120 --> 00:07:36,840 Speaker 1: One way to kind of understand how the regime has 118 00:07:36,960 --> 00:07:41,160 Speaker 1: bought this very fine line in order to impose their 119 00:07:41,240 --> 00:07:44,880 Speaker 1: view of the revolution and the Islamic state while keeping 120 00:07:45,000 --> 00:07:47,400 Speaker 1: people from sort of boiling over. The first time I 121 00:07:47,440 --> 00:07:49,480 Speaker 1: went to run, I was left like ten days, and 122 00:07:49,520 --> 00:07:52,680 Speaker 1: I went to various cities and there was something that 123 00:07:52,800 --> 00:07:55,800 Speaker 1: really just sort of niggled, and I couldn't figure out 124 00:07:55,840 --> 00:07:58,440 Speaker 1: what it was until the day I left, And it 125 00:07:58,520 --> 00:08:00,640 Speaker 1: was that in all those ten days that didn't hear 126 00:08:00,640 --> 00:08:04,239 Speaker 1: the call to prayer. Anytime you're in the Middle East, 127 00:08:04,320 --> 00:08:07,840 Speaker 1: you know, you could Istanbul and it's so overwhelming, right 128 00:08:07,920 --> 00:08:11,880 Speaker 1: you just you'll never miss it. And it certainly struck 129 00:08:11,880 --> 00:08:13,679 Speaker 1: me that I hadn't heard it in all that time. 130 00:08:13,960 --> 00:08:15,640 Speaker 1: I went back the next time and I tried to, 131 00:08:15,840 --> 00:08:19,000 Speaker 1: you know, find out why that was. And the reason 132 00:08:19,200 --> 00:08:22,320 Speaker 1: was that as people sort of became disenchanted with the regime, 133 00:08:22,840 --> 00:08:25,960 Speaker 1: they kind of you know, identified that with the call 134 00:08:26,040 --> 00:08:29,280 Speaker 1: to prayer and the molsons on and they complain, and 135 00:08:29,360 --> 00:08:33,439 Speaker 1: eventually the Ministry for Religion issued a funk while saying 136 00:08:33,480 --> 00:08:37,160 Speaker 1: that accepting certain very holy sites like in the very 137 00:08:37,160 --> 00:08:39,640 Speaker 1: center of Terran and so on, they were not allowed 138 00:08:39,679 --> 00:08:43,640 Speaker 1: to amplify the call to prayer. It's so striking because 139 00:08:43,679 --> 00:08:46,120 Speaker 1: it gives you this idea of how, you know, long 140 00:08:46,240 --> 00:08:51,120 Speaker 1: this disenchantment has been going on, They've managed to secularize 141 00:08:51,640 --> 00:08:54,839 Speaker 1: society in Iran in a way that isn't true in 142 00:08:54,960 --> 00:09:00,760 Speaker 1: most other Middle Eastern countries. I suppose One reason why 143 00:09:00,920 --> 00:09:04,400 Speaker 1: most people in run have not risen up despite their 144 00:09:04,400 --> 00:09:08,439 Speaker 1: own dissatisfaction is that the security forces are so efficient 145 00:09:08,840 --> 00:09:15,240 Speaker 1: at enforcing these laws, and the regime makes very public 146 00:09:15,800 --> 00:09:19,920 Speaker 1: the way in which they punish people, torture and other 147 00:09:20,000 --> 00:09:24,160 Speaker 1: forms of brutal punishment. What role does that play in 148 00:09:24,320 --> 00:09:27,440 Speaker 1: both the ability of the regime to hang on despite 149 00:09:27,480 --> 00:09:32,119 Speaker 1: discontent and the unwillingness of people to rise up despite discontent. 150 00:09:32,640 --> 00:09:36,000 Speaker 1: It plays a huge role. It becomes at a certain 151 00:09:36,040 --> 00:09:41,120 Speaker 1: point very very dangerous to go out and protest. You're 152 00:09:41,240 --> 00:09:44,160 Speaker 1: likely to be imprisoned, and at the same time you 153 00:09:44,200 --> 00:09:46,880 Speaker 1: can't really see how you're going to achieve your goal, 154 00:09:47,200 --> 00:09:51,520 Speaker 1: so it becomes quite quickly dispiriting. We should really remember 155 00:09:51,600 --> 00:09:53,840 Speaker 1: that these kinds of regimes, they tend to be able 156 00:09:53,880 --> 00:09:59,040 Speaker 1: to survive long long after they've lost popularity and legitimacy, 157 00:09:59,160 --> 00:10:02,680 Speaker 1: and they conduce for as long as the security forces 158 00:10:02,720 --> 00:10:06,640 Speaker 1: around them are willing to use violence to suppress. When 159 00:10:06,679 --> 00:10:11,320 Speaker 1: you say one circumstance under which the government might fall 160 00:10:11,400 --> 00:10:13,960 Speaker 1: would be that they make a mistake on a scale 161 00:10:14,000 --> 00:10:17,840 Speaker 1: so large that many more people rise up, is that 162 00:10:18,000 --> 00:10:21,920 Speaker 1: a case of them being able to overwhelm the security 163 00:10:21,960 --> 00:10:26,800 Speaker 1: forces exactly what does it look like to overthrow that government. Well, 164 00:10:26,840 --> 00:10:28,840 Speaker 1: at a certain point and the security force has just 165 00:10:28,960 --> 00:10:33,080 Speaker 1: done enough because the crowds are just so large. Each 166 00:10:33,120 --> 00:10:36,360 Speaker 1: country has its that that limit will be in a 167 00:10:36,400 --> 00:10:38,720 Speaker 1: different place, but you know, we haven't seen that reached 168 00:10:38,760 --> 00:10:43,760 Speaker 1: in Iran. Yet another pressure on the government that is 169 00:10:44,160 --> 00:10:48,040 Speaker 1: being felt by the people are the international sanctions against Iran, 170 00:10:48,160 --> 00:10:51,360 Speaker 1: which has isolated the country even more than it was 171 00:10:51,520 --> 00:10:56,280 Speaker 1: before and has really squeezed its economy. Do you think 172 00:10:56,360 --> 00:11:01,760 Speaker 1: that those sanctions are having an effect or has they 173 00:11:01,800 --> 00:11:05,760 Speaker 1: just hardened people against the West despite not liking their 174 00:11:05,800 --> 00:11:09,240 Speaker 1: own government. They have an effect in the sense that 175 00:11:09,400 --> 00:11:12,640 Speaker 1: they make the country much poorer and therefore the government 176 00:11:12,640 --> 00:11:15,559 Speaker 1: has less money, et cetera. But the government will follow, 177 00:11:15,640 --> 00:11:19,840 Speaker 1: you know, prioritize what it feels necessary. And for this regime, 178 00:11:20,040 --> 00:11:23,640 Speaker 1: the top priority is going to be the security forces, 179 00:11:24,080 --> 00:11:28,040 Speaker 1: their foreign policy, and all those things will come before 180 00:11:28,640 --> 00:11:32,400 Speaker 1: what normal Western politicians might prioritize in terms of healthcare 181 00:11:32,559 --> 00:11:36,760 Speaker 1: or whatever. They will retain the money to carry on. Weirdly, 182 00:11:36,760 --> 00:11:40,800 Speaker 1: the isolation of the economy has forced more and more 183 00:11:40,840 --> 00:11:43,839 Speaker 1: of the economy into the hands of the I r 184 00:11:43,920 --> 00:11:48,280 Speaker 1: g C. The Iranian Revolutionary God Corps has more control 185 00:11:48,320 --> 00:11:51,240 Speaker 1: over the economy now than it did before the sanctions. 186 00:11:51,800 --> 00:11:55,040 Speaker 1: The sanctions of work in the sense that damage the economy, 187 00:11:55,200 --> 00:11:59,320 Speaker 1: but they don't necessarily work in terms of disempowering the regime. 188 00:12:00,040 --> 00:12:04,400 Speaker 1: You won't find the sanctions popular, so people don't say 189 00:12:04,440 --> 00:12:07,520 Speaker 1: bring it on. But you are seeing a lot of unrest, 190 00:12:08,160 --> 00:12:11,880 Speaker 1: and some of that unrest not in these particular protests, 191 00:12:11,960 --> 00:12:15,160 Speaker 1: but previous ones. They were clearly about the economy, and 192 00:12:15,200 --> 00:12:19,400 Speaker 1: they were held by in smaller towns and cities, poorer people. 193 00:12:19,840 --> 00:12:22,840 Speaker 1: Quite different from these are the ones in in two 194 00:12:22,840 --> 00:12:26,440 Speaker 1: thousand nine. You have seen a lot of unrest. Now, 195 00:12:26,480 --> 00:12:28,839 Speaker 1: whether you can say that's because of the sanctions, it's 196 00:12:28,880 --> 00:12:33,079 Speaker 1: it's almost impossible to draw that line. Nobody's protesting against 197 00:12:33,120 --> 00:12:36,920 Speaker 1: the government because they have followed policies that induce sanctions. 198 00:12:37,000 --> 00:12:39,480 Speaker 1: That's not what happens. What happens is they go out 199 00:12:39,480 --> 00:12:42,800 Speaker 1: when they're unhappy. If the sanctions create an environment in 200 00:12:42,800 --> 00:12:47,160 Speaker 1: which they are unhappy, then you could argue that they've contributed, 201 00:12:47,200 --> 00:12:50,760 Speaker 1: But it's extremely difficult to draw lines. Mark, please stay 202 00:12:50,800 --> 00:13:01,880 Speaker 1: with me. Will continue our conversation after the break. Given 203 00:13:01,960 --> 00:13:05,880 Speaker 1: how much of the unrest in the protests are being 204 00:13:05,880 --> 00:13:09,200 Speaker 1: carried out by young people. Is it just a matter 205 00:13:09,240 --> 00:13:13,600 Speaker 1: of time that we see a generational shift that causes 206 00:13:14,040 --> 00:13:17,160 Speaker 1: a much different Iran to take shape? You mentioned the 207 00:13:17,160 --> 00:13:20,800 Speaker 1: supreme leader is old and won't be around forever. What 208 00:13:21,000 --> 00:13:25,160 Speaker 1: happens next? I think the answer, you know is yes, 209 00:13:25,480 --> 00:13:29,880 Speaker 1: but how much time? So I remember again first trip 210 00:13:29,960 --> 00:13:33,520 Speaker 1: to Iran in two thousands three four, going to visit 211 00:13:33,840 --> 00:13:36,960 Speaker 1: one of the embassies and getting a briefing there where 212 00:13:36,960 --> 00:13:40,640 Speaker 1: they were making exactly this argument that the regime is 213 00:13:40,760 --> 00:13:44,800 Speaker 1: it's days and numbered because the demography is just all 214 00:13:44,840 --> 00:13:47,920 Speaker 1: against them. And they weren't wrong that the demography was 215 00:13:48,320 --> 00:13:50,880 Speaker 1: working against the regime. It's just that twenty years later, 216 00:13:50,920 --> 00:13:55,600 Speaker 1: they're still there, and it's difficult to say when it 217 00:13:55,679 --> 00:14:00,520 Speaker 1: becomes untenable and when the regime can't continue. True, the 218 00:14:00,600 --> 00:14:04,199 Speaker 1: eight year old who conducted the revolution that they will 219 00:14:04,240 --> 00:14:07,880 Speaker 1: be gone pretty soon. But the sixties seventy old too, 220 00:14:08,080 --> 00:14:11,120 Speaker 1: we're also grew up in or join the revolution, and 221 00:14:11,120 --> 00:14:13,680 Speaker 1: it's on it. They still have a connection. It's not 222 00:14:13,720 --> 00:14:16,280 Speaker 1: black and white. Question is how long? And it's not 223 00:14:16,400 --> 00:14:20,080 Speaker 1: really very easy to answer that, Mark Champion, thanks for 224 00:14:20,160 --> 00:14:24,600 Speaker 1: talking with me. Thank you. Let's take a closer look 225 00:14:24,640 --> 00:14:29,400 Speaker 1: now at IRUN from a national and international security perspective. 226 00:14:29,920 --> 00:14:33,120 Speaker 1: Olive Ayaz is here with me in Washington. He's the 227 00:14:33,160 --> 00:14:37,800 Speaker 1: Iran project director for the International Crisis Group, but think 228 00:14:37,800 --> 00:14:43,480 Speaker 1: tank that tracks global conflicts Alive. For many years, the 229 00:14:43,600 --> 00:14:48,680 Speaker 1: US has tried every form of pressure to get around 230 00:14:48,680 --> 00:14:51,920 Speaker 1: to change really to change the government in a run, 231 00:14:51,960 --> 00:14:56,520 Speaker 1: and nothing has worked. If you were to advise President Biden, 232 00:14:56,840 --> 00:15:00,400 Speaker 1: what would you suggest an alternative path to what the 233 00:15:00,480 --> 00:15:03,720 Speaker 1: US is doing now? There is a ticking bomb which 234 00:15:03,800 --> 00:15:07,480 Speaker 1: is around nuclear program that is advancing very quickly, and 235 00:15:07,720 --> 00:15:11,120 Speaker 1: at some stage there needs to be a solution. Now, 236 00:15:11,400 --> 00:15:14,640 Speaker 1: that solution could be something less than the restoration of 237 00:15:14,640 --> 00:15:17,760 Speaker 1: the two thousand and fifty nuclear agreement, under which the 238 00:15:17,760 --> 00:15:21,400 Speaker 1: regime will get wholesale sanctions relief. It could be a 239 00:15:21,520 --> 00:15:24,320 Speaker 1: narrower deal, kind of a freeze agreement that would provide 240 00:15:24,320 --> 00:15:27,880 Speaker 1: them with partial sanctions relief that it's easier to defend politically, 241 00:15:28,200 --> 00:15:31,320 Speaker 1: but would diffuse this potential crisis because the last thing 242 00:15:31,360 --> 00:15:33,880 Speaker 1: the West ones at a time that it's dealing with 243 00:15:33,920 --> 00:15:37,320 Speaker 1: the crisis in Ukraine, with the potential crisis with China, 244 00:15:37,720 --> 00:15:41,160 Speaker 1: is a nuclear nonproliferation crisis in the Middle East. I 245 00:15:41,200 --> 00:15:44,359 Speaker 1: think the Western general and the United States in particular 246 00:15:44,720 --> 00:15:48,800 Speaker 1: would have to come to a point psychologically to call 247 00:15:48,880 --> 00:15:52,880 Speaker 1: this regime an evil empire and yet do deals with 248 00:15:52,920 --> 00:15:56,360 Speaker 1: them that would limit the greatest threats that they pose 249 00:15:56,680 --> 00:16:00,720 Speaker 1: to Western interests and security. By that, I mean replicating 250 00:16:00,720 --> 00:16:03,360 Speaker 1: the experience that the United States had with the Soviet Union. 251 00:16:03,680 --> 00:16:07,080 Speaker 1: You know, it was possible for the United States to 252 00:16:07,400 --> 00:16:10,880 Speaker 1: stand up against human rights violations in the Soviet Union, 253 00:16:10,920 --> 00:16:15,240 Speaker 1: to try to contain the Soviet unions problematic foreign policy 254 00:16:15,320 --> 00:16:19,200 Speaker 1: and role in proxy conflicts around the world, but at 255 00:16:19,200 --> 00:16:22,520 Speaker 1: the same time sign onto arms control agreements. This is 256 00:16:22,560 --> 00:16:24,280 Speaker 1: the point that the West should eventually get to with 257 00:16:24,440 --> 00:16:30,160 Speaker 1: Iran as well, understanding that political change in Iran comes 258 00:16:30,760 --> 00:16:32,920 Speaker 1: not because of what the West will do, but what 259 00:16:33,120 --> 00:16:35,960 Speaker 1: because of what they running people would want and will do. 260 00:16:36,720 --> 00:16:40,280 Speaker 1: As we saw in the recent experience, the political leadership 261 00:16:40,320 --> 00:16:43,440 Speaker 1: in Iran is still cohesive, still has the will to 262 00:16:43,520 --> 00:16:47,000 Speaker 1: fight and remain in power. That could potentially change down 263 00:16:47,080 --> 00:16:49,440 Speaker 1: the road. There might be cracks when the supreme leader 264 00:16:49,480 --> 00:16:52,480 Speaker 1: is not there anymore, if there are more differences within 265 00:16:52,520 --> 00:16:55,960 Speaker 1: the system that emerge, if their defections and at that 266 00:16:56,000 --> 00:16:58,640 Speaker 1: point they running people might have a better chance of 267 00:16:58,800 --> 00:17:04,600 Speaker 1: achieving a more open society. The question that I think 268 00:17:04,640 --> 00:17:08,040 Speaker 1: is often overlooked in the West is what will this 269 00:17:08,240 --> 00:17:11,760 Speaker 1: pressure policy that the West is entirely focused on due 270 00:17:11,800 --> 00:17:15,639 Speaker 1: to the Iranian people, They're already on the brink. Another 271 00:17:15,680 --> 00:17:19,800 Speaker 1: five to ten years of pressure and isolation will weaken 272 00:17:19,880 --> 00:17:23,360 Speaker 1: this society even further in a way that even if 273 00:17:23,560 --> 00:17:27,640 Speaker 1: a tipping point is reached, it might not necessarily result 274 00:17:27,680 --> 00:17:30,640 Speaker 1: in the kind of transition to a democratic system that 275 00:17:30,680 --> 00:17:34,200 Speaker 1: the West wishes to see. So although the West cannot, 276 00:17:34,760 --> 00:17:39,440 Speaker 1: I think midwife a positive outcome necessarily in Iran, this 277 00:17:39,520 --> 00:17:42,520 Speaker 1: is not South Africa that you know, the West had 278 00:17:42,560 --> 00:17:45,560 Speaker 1: a lot of leverage against that could use, in which 279 00:17:45,600 --> 00:17:48,760 Speaker 1: there was Nelson Mandela, that could lead the democratic transition, 280 00:17:48,800 --> 00:17:51,520 Speaker 1: in which there was William f the clerk who was 281 00:17:51,640 --> 00:17:55,280 Speaker 1: willing to compromise and hand over the power. All I 282 00:17:55,280 --> 00:17:58,040 Speaker 1: think the West can do is to try to get 283 00:17:58,080 --> 00:18:01,160 Speaker 1: into the kind of arrangements that will image the threat 284 00:18:01,200 --> 00:18:03,920 Speaker 1: around proses on the nuclear front, the threat around poses 285 00:18:04,200 --> 00:18:07,000 Speaker 1: in the region, and all of those have different solutions, 286 00:18:07,320 --> 00:18:11,879 Speaker 1: and eventually also trying to empower the Iranian people through 287 00:18:12,359 --> 00:18:15,400 Speaker 1: allowing the kind of sanctions relief that would benefit them 288 00:18:15,440 --> 00:18:20,439 Speaker 1: the most. Just to use your analogy between the United 289 00:18:20,440 --> 00:18:24,879 Speaker 1: States and the Soviet Union, one of the differences is 290 00:18:24,920 --> 00:18:28,600 Speaker 1: that at the time the Soviet Union was a major 291 00:18:28,720 --> 00:18:31,600 Speaker 1: nuclear power, as of course was the U. S. And 292 00:18:31,680 --> 00:18:35,760 Speaker 1: so that was the basis of the relationship. Whereas Around 293 00:18:35,880 --> 00:18:38,399 Speaker 1: is trying to become a nuclear power and the rest 294 00:18:38,440 --> 00:18:40,320 Speaker 1: of the world is trying to stop it. Do you 295 00:18:40,359 --> 00:18:45,399 Speaker 1: think that ultimately Around will achieve its goal of gaining 296 00:18:45,440 --> 00:18:48,879 Speaker 1: a nuclear weapon or the efforts by the West to 297 00:18:48,960 --> 00:18:52,280 Speaker 1: stop it will succeed in keeping it from getting one. 298 00:18:52,760 --> 00:18:56,639 Speaker 1: Any country historically that has been determined enough to go 299 00:18:56,760 --> 00:18:59,560 Speaker 1: for a nuclear weapon has been able to achieve that objective, 300 00:19:00,160 --> 00:19:02,159 Speaker 1: and I don't think Iran will be an exception to 301 00:19:02,240 --> 00:19:05,080 Speaker 1: that rule. But in the Irani in case, I don't 302 00:19:05,080 --> 00:19:07,960 Speaker 1: think there is a scenario in which they can weaponize 303 00:19:08,000 --> 00:19:11,119 Speaker 1: without going through a conflict first, because this is a 304 00:19:11,160 --> 00:19:16,240 Speaker 1: program that is so deeply penetrated by Western and Israeli intelligence, 305 00:19:16,240 --> 00:19:19,200 Speaker 1: as we have seen by repeated covert operations against Iran 306 00:19:19,280 --> 00:19:22,119 Speaker 1: over the years. Iran has blamed Israel for what it 307 00:19:22,200 --> 00:19:26,400 Speaker 1: called an active terrorism on its Naton's nuclear facility. According 308 00:19:26,480 --> 00:19:30,800 Speaker 1: to State TV, Irani and Foreign Minister Mohammed Jabads a 309 00:19:30,880 --> 00:19:34,400 Speaker 1: Reef vowed revenge. So once the decision, the political decision 310 00:19:34,520 --> 00:19:37,240 Speaker 1: to go for a weapon is made, I think you 311 00:19:37,280 --> 00:19:40,760 Speaker 1: will probably see in a US led attack on Iran's 312 00:19:40,840 --> 00:19:44,119 Speaker 1: nuclear program. But having said that, although there is a 313 00:19:44,160 --> 00:19:47,560 Speaker 1: military option for setting back Irun's nuclear program, there's no 314 00:19:47,640 --> 00:19:51,960 Speaker 1: military solution to prevent Iran in a sustainable fashion from 315 00:19:51,960 --> 00:19:57,040 Speaker 1: achieving that objective. And that is why the diplomatic solution remains, 316 00:19:57,200 --> 00:20:01,320 Speaker 1: in the perspective of the Biden administration, the best and 317 00:20:01,400 --> 00:20:05,800 Speaker 1: most sustainable solution for curbing Iran's nuclear ambitions. We'll be 318 00:20:05,880 --> 00:20:15,439 Speaker 1: right back. Do you think that the risk of a 319 00:20:15,600 --> 00:20:21,440 Speaker 1: military confrontation rather than diplomatic economic confrontation as we've seen 320 00:20:21,640 --> 00:20:26,280 Speaker 1: between the West and Iran is high? Oh? Absolutely. The 321 00:20:26,400 --> 00:20:30,080 Speaker 1: problem right now is that the head space for escalation 322 00:20:30,400 --> 00:20:34,119 Speaker 1: on the Iranian side is shrinking by the day. You know, 323 00:20:34,200 --> 00:20:38,320 Speaker 1: the US has basically maxed itself out of sanctions leverage. 324 00:20:38,480 --> 00:20:41,280 Speaker 1: It has sanctioned almost everything that moves in Iran. It 325 00:20:41,400 --> 00:20:45,040 Speaker 1: can increase the pressure by enforcing the existing sanctions. But 326 00:20:45,080 --> 00:20:47,680 Speaker 1: if the dial of sanctions is eight out of ten, 327 00:20:47,840 --> 00:20:50,440 Speaker 1: it will go to nine out of ten, and that 328 00:20:50,600 --> 00:20:54,720 Speaker 1: is probably not going to result in significant change in 329 00:20:54,760 --> 00:21:00,640 Speaker 1: the Iranian economic situation. They have survived. There are obviously thriving, 330 00:21:01,040 --> 00:21:03,800 Speaker 1: but I think from the Iranian perspective, the worst of 331 00:21:03,840 --> 00:21:07,399 Speaker 1: the sanctions is already behind them. Plus they now have 332 00:21:07,640 --> 00:21:10,960 Speaker 1: these growing ties with China and Russia, and they have 333 00:21:11,040 --> 00:21:14,480 Speaker 1: this club of sanctioned nations to try to circumvent US 334 00:21:14,560 --> 00:21:17,479 Speaker 1: and Western sanctions, and so their perspective is that they 335 00:21:17,520 --> 00:21:21,680 Speaker 1: can survive economically. But the problem is if there is 336 00:21:21,720 --> 00:21:24,840 Speaker 1: a covert operation against the run zunclear facilities, which has 337 00:21:24,840 --> 00:21:27,439 Speaker 1: not happened since the last time Prime Minister in Antony 338 00:21:27,520 --> 00:21:31,280 Speaker 1: who was in office, that's Israel's prime minister. The only 339 00:21:31,359 --> 00:21:34,840 Speaker 1: thing that Iran can potentially due to respond is to 340 00:21:35,040 --> 00:21:40,879 Speaker 1: enrich to which could potentially cross US and Israel's redlines. 341 00:21:42,280 --> 00:21:45,480 Speaker 1: Iranians are of course also itching to retaliate against some 342 00:21:45,560 --> 00:21:48,600 Speaker 1: of the covert operations Israel is conducting on their soil 343 00:21:48,640 --> 00:21:53,639 Speaker 1: against their military facilities. That too could potentially push the 344 00:21:53,640 --> 00:21:59,280 Speaker 1: two countries over into a conflict, whether it's inadvertent or deliberate, 345 00:21:59,800 --> 00:22:02,359 Speaker 1: and so the risks are high. I would argue they've 346 00:22:02,359 --> 00:22:06,680 Speaker 1: never been higher. And there's also now a political motivation 347 00:22:06,720 --> 00:22:10,800 Speaker 1: inside Iran for an embattled regime to try to get 348 00:22:10,880 --> 00:22:14,520 Speaker 1: into some sort of a conflagration that could potentially serve 349 00:22:14,600 --> 00:22:17,600 Speaker 1: as a distraction from troubles at home, that people would 350 00:22:17,680 --> 00:22:20,840 Speaker 1: rally around the government even if they dislike it, simply 351 00:22:20,880 --> 00:22:24,320 Speaker 1: because they're defending their country. Absolutely, And this happened in 352 00:22:24,359 --> 00:22:27,960 Speaker 1: the nineteen eighties. The younger revolutionary system in Iran went 353 00:22:28,040 --> 00:22:31,000 Speaker 1: into the Irani Rock War for eight years and instead 354 00:22:31,040 --> 00:22:33,760 Speaker 1: of undermining it, that consolidated it. So they've had this 355 00:22:33,840 --> 00:22:38,280 Speaker 1: experience before. What would military conflict between the Western Iran 356 00:22:38,400 --> 00:22:41,720 Speaker 1: look like. I don't think we're talking about Western troops 357 00:22:41,800 --> 00:22:44,840 Speaker 1: moving into Iran, but something different. Well, it would be 358 00:22:44,960 --> 00:22:49,760 Speaker 1: certainly surgical strikes against Iran's nuclear facilities, and there is 359 00:22:49,840 --> 00:22:53,399 Speaker 1: this view even within Iran that it could be something 360 00:22:53,560 --> 00:22:56,320 Speaker 1: similar to the tit fitat that happened between Iran and 361 00:22:56,359 --> 00:23:00,919 Speaker 1: the United States in January over the link of Irani 362 00:23:00,960 --> 00:23:03,879 Speaker 1: in general, Gossam sole money and I Run's retaliation the 363 00:23:03,920 --> 00:23:06,920 Speaker 1: form of shooting a barrage of holistic missiles into US 364 00:23:06,960 --> 00:23:09,920 Speaker 1: bass in Iraq. It is true that that tip for 365 00:23:10,040 --> 00:23:14,480 Speaker 1: Tad remained contained. But of course wars always start on 366 00:23:14,600 --> 00:23:18,520 Speaker 1: assumptions that they're quick, they could be contained, and they're predictable, 367 00:23:18,920 --> 00:23:22,200 Speaker 1: and almost always those assumptions turn out to be wrong. 368 00:23:22,920 --> 00:23:25,959 Speaker 1: A conflict over I runs unclear program is easy to start, 369 00:23:26,280 --> 00:23:29,639 Speaker 1: but it's probably going to be difficult to finish. A 370 00:23:29,720 --> 00:23:32,600 Speaker 1: year from now, five years from now, where do you 371 00:23:32,680 --> 00:23:37,440 Speaker 1: expect will be when it comes to both Iruns government 372 00:23:37,960 --> 00:23:41,520 Speaker 1: and its relationship with the rest of the world. It's 373 00:23:41,520 --> 00:23:45,520 Speaker 1: a very dangerous business to predict developments in the Middle 374 00:23:45,560 --> 00:23:49,960 Speaker 1: East and especially in Iran, But I don't expect fundamental 375 00:23:50,320 --> 00:23:53,760 Speaker 1: changes in the short run. What I think should be 376 00:23:53,800 --> 00:23:57,280 Speaker 1: the focus in the immediate term should be on trying 377 00:23:57,280 --> 00:23:59,440 Speaker 1: to put a band aid on this situation that could 378 00:23:59,520 --> 00:24:02,399 Speaker 1: easily battle out of control. We are really at the 379 00:24:02,480 --> 00:24:05,600 Speaker 1: mercy of a single incident between Iran and Israel, or 380 00:24:05,760 --> 00:24:08,159 Speaker 1: you know, some kind of a provocative decision by the 381 00:24:08,160 --> 00:24:11,720 Speaker 1: Iranians to enrich the weapons grade for instance, that could 382 00:24:11,800 --> 00:24:15,800 Speaker 1: potentially provoke a conflict, and that kind of conflict can 383 00:24:16,040 --> 00:24:19,840 Speaker 1: counterintuitively add to the regime's shelf life because it would 384 00:24:19,880 --> 00:24:22,359 Speaker 1: change the subject domestically. It would allow them to further 385 00:24:22,440 --> 00:24:26,600 Speaker 1: securitize and militarize the domestic sphere. So if in the 386 00:24:26,640 --> 00:24:30,040 Speaker 1: short run the focus is on preventing a conflict and 387 00:24:30,160 --> 00:24:34,159 Speaker 1: on trying to empower the Irani middle class, then I 388 00:24:34,200 --> 00:24:36,920 Speaker 1: think there is hope that in the medium term, with 389 00:24:37,200 --> 00:24:40,399 Speaker 1: the top of the political system starting to crack in 390 00:24:40,440 --> 00:24:44,359 Speaker 1: the Islamic Republic, we might see transition to something better. 391 00:24:45,000 --> 00:24:47,760 Speaker 1: Everybody is thanks so much for being here, great pleasure. 392 00:24:48,800 --> 00:24:51,960 Speaker 1: You can read more reporting from Mark Champion at Bloomberg 393 00:24:52,040 --> 00:24:55,080 Speaker 1: dot com. Thanks for listening to us here at The 394 00:24:55,080 --> 00:24:58,399 Speaker 1: Big Take. It's a daily podcast from Bloomberg and I 395 00:24:58,560 --> 00:25:01,880 Speaker 1: Heart Radio. From more shows from my Heart Radio, visit 396 00:25:01,960 --> 00:25:05,600 Speaker 1: the I Heart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you listen, 397 00:25:05,960 --> 00:25:08,680 Speaker 1: and we'd love to hear from you. Email us questions 398 00:25:08,800 --> 00:25:12,760 Speaker 1: or comments to Big Take at Bloomberg dot net. The 399 00:25:12,880 --> 00:25:17,040 Speaker 1: supervising producer of The Big Take is Vicky Bergolina, Our 400 00:25:17,160 --> 00:25:21,919 Speaker 1: senior producer is Katherine Fink Federica Roman Yellow is our producer, 401 00:25:22,000 --> 00:25:26,320 Speaker 1: and our associate producer is zenobsidy Kei Raphael I'm Seely 402 00:25:26,600 --> 00:25:30,399 Speaker 1: is our engineer. Our original music was composed by Leo 403 00:25:30,520 --> 00:25:34,600 Speaker 1: Sidrin I'm west Caasova we'll be back tomorrow with another 404 00:25:34,680 --> 00:25:35,160 Speaker 1: big take.