WEBVTT - Your Questions About the Coming Winter

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<v Speaker 1>Welcome to Prognosis. I'm Laura Carlson. It's day two and

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<v Speaker 1>thirty five since coronavirus was declared a global pandemic. Today's

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<v Speaker 1>main story. The results of the US presidential election, in

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<v Speaker 1>which coronavirus played a crucial role, are not yet clear.

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<v Speaker 1>But it's not the only unanswered question. The country is

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<v Speaker 1>staring down. Many are wondering how to make decisions about

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<v Speaker 1>whether and how to see family and friends this holiday season.

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<v Speaker 1>For that, at least, we have some answers. But first,

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<v Speaker 1>here's what happened in virus News today. Boris Johnson is

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<v Speaker 1>pushing fresh coronavirus lockdown rules through the UK Parliament, facing

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<v Speaker 1>down rebels in his own Conservative party. The country will

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<v Speaker 1>close pubs, gyms and non essential shops in England and

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<v Speaker 1>restrict social contact between households. The Prime Minister announced the

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<v Speaker 1>month long measures on Saturday after data showed that the

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<v Speaker 1>pandemics spread exceeds worst case projections. Denmark has found a

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<v Speaker 1>new strain of COVID nineteen in the country's mink population.

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<v Speaker 1>An outbreak among the animals led to a mutation of

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<v Speaker 1>the virus that might hamper efforts to develop a vaccine.

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<v Speaker 1>Prime Minister Mette Frederickson said today that the discovery means

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<v Speaker 1>the effect of a future vaccine could be weakened or undermined. Finally,

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<v Speaker 1>one of the first states to receive rapid, low cost

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<v Speaker 1>coronavirus tests from the US government is cautioning not to

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<v Speaker 1>use them on asymptomatic people. The Louisiana Department of Health

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<v Speaker 1>said last week antigen tests like one from Abbott Laboratories

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<v Speaker 1>can incorrectly return positive results in patients who don't show symptoms.

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<v Speaker 1>The recommendations highlight issues with tests like Abbott's five dollar

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<v Speaker 1>by Knacks. Now the Department of Health and Human Services

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<v Speaker 1>is spending seven and fifty million dollars on the tests,

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<v Speaker 1>which were used in the White House. And now for

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<v Speaker 1>today's main story, the holidays will not be business as

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<v Speaker 1>usual this year. Instead of simply figuring out what to

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<v Speaker 1>cook for Thanksgiving dinner, we have to consider things like

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<v Speaker 1>who we can invite to dinner safely, or whether we

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<v Speaker 1>should even be hosting a meal at all. So reporter

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<v Speaker 1>Christen V. Brown has been collecting your questions around social distancing,

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<v Speaker 1>etiquette and the holiday season to run by an expert. Here.

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<v Speaker 1>She is with more like many people I find the

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<v Speaker 1>two months stretch between Halloween and New Year's Eve pretty stressful.

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<v Speaker 1>Every year there is the question of where it has

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<v Speaker 1>been Thanksgiving and what to get my impossible to shop

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<v Speaker 1>for mother for Christmas. But this year things are especially complicated.

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<v Speaker 1>I live in Brooklyn, New York, my nine year old grandmother,

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<v Speaker 1>My mother, and the rest of my family lives in California,

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<v Speaker 1>and separating us is a long plane ride. I've been

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<v Speaker 1>concerned that flying across the country this holiday season might

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<v Speaker 1>contribute to a surge in cases as travel spikes. I

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<v Speaker 1>feel forced to choose between making my family happy and

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<v Speaker 1>doing what seems in the best interests of public health.

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<v Speaker 1>That is a lot of pressure added to the holiday season.

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<v Speaker 1>Our listeners had questions too, and we turn them over

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<v Speaker 1>to Bertha Hildago. She's an epidemiologist at the University of

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<v Speaker 1>Alabama at Birmingham. Bertha says she has already been feeling

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<v Speaker 1>lots of these sorts of questions from people. Then ideally,

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<v Speaker 1>you would all want, you everyone who's going to be

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<v Speaker 1>involved in this Thanksgiving or other holiday celebration, you would

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<v Speaker 1>all want to quarantine for fourteen days, see each other

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<v Speaker 1>for the gathering, and then people can go back to

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<v Speaker 1>whatever it was that they were doing once they're no

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<v Speaker 1>longer together. But a lot of people are back to work,

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<v Speaker 1>kids are in school in some places, and so that

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<v Speaker 1>quarantine in advance for fourteen days is often really hard

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<v Speaker 1>to achieve. She says. Other variables like whether you're traveling

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<v Speaker 1>by car or plane, can further complicate this. Families that

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<v Speaker 1>I know are opting simply not to get together for

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<v Speaker 1>Thanksgiving this year because there's just too much to try

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<v Speaker 1>and aligne between the people that they want to see

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<v Speaker 1>and gather with. But opting out of the holiday season

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<v Speaker 1>altogether is unrealistic for many people. Everyone has different complicated

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<v Speaker 1>holiday situations, and Bertha did have some advice on what

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<v Speaker 1>can make these gatherings safer. It's worth noting that the

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<v Speaker 1>CDC and many local governments have also issued their own

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<v Speaker 1>guidelines for celebrating this time of year, including limiting the

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<v Speaker 1>amount of time you spend together indoors. Our first listener

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<v Speaker 1>has a really good question. She wonders whether big family

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<v Speaker 1>dinners are safe if everyone gets a COVID test beforehand.

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<v Speaker 1>So you've got a family of eight and they're in

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<v Speaker 1>different states and they are driving, um, not flying to

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<v Speaker 1>to meet up for the holidays and they each get

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<v Speaker 1>a test. Should they feel a sense of security in

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<v Speaker 1>that or is that false sense of security actually posing

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<v Speaker 1>additional risks? Um so. So, basically the point of my

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<v Speaker 1>question is what can we actually learn and derive from

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<v Speaker 1>our tests as family members um coming from out of

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<v Speaker 1>town and convening together in indoor spaces. Unfortunately, the answer

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<v Speaker 1>to a lot of these is it depends because testing

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<v Speaker 1>gets a little bit tricky. So I would say that

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<v Speaker 1>testing for holiday gatherings is still very much um not

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<v Speaker 1>something that I would recommend. I would prefer to have

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<v Speaker 1>people quarantine in advance, especially if where everyone is headed

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<v Speaker 1>is within driving distance, and so I think there's just

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<v Speaker 1>enough variability that I would not rely on testing. Yet,

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<v Speaker 1>A big question is how we should all be behaving

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<v Speaker 1>in the lead up to gathering with family and friends.

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<v Speaker 1>One listener wonders how she can most safely prepare to

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<v Speaker 1>host her elderly parents of driving distance away and they

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<v Speaker 1>have a separate place to stay here. My question is

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<v Speaker 1>should I keep my two young kids, ages two and four,

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<v Speaker 1>in preschool during this time or would it be safer

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<v Speaker 1>to pull them out from preschool for two weeks prior

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<v Speaker 1>to their visit. Um we live in a place for

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<v Speaker 1>it will likely be too cold to do Thanksgiving dinner outside.

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<v Speaker 1>I would say that I'm sort of in the take

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<v Speaker 1>zero to minimal risks camp when it comes to conversations

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<v Speaker 1>about older individuals whom we know to be more susceptible

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<v Speaker 1>to COVID nineteen, especially adverse effects of COVID nineteen, or

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<v Speaker 1>individuals who are classified as vulnerable individuals um for a

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<v Speaker 1>number of reasons covividit ease, etcetera. And so I would

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<v Speaker 1>say that I would personally guess pull the kids if

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<v Speaker 1>that is possible and feasible for the fourteen days prior

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<v Speaker 1>to this gathering. Another listener is a grandmother herself with

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<v Speaker 1>health conditions that make her more vulnerable to the virus.

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<v Speaker 1>She says visiting her family seems riskier now that her

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<v Speaker 1>grandkids are back in school. I'm curious to find out

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<v Speaker 1>what to do if I'm a seventy year old grandmother

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<v Speaker 1>with a chronically low white blood count who wants to

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<v Speaker 1>see her family of children who have gone back to school.

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<v Speaker 1>So can I travel and visit them during the holidays

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<v Speaker 1>when they were in the bubble? It didn't seem quite

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<v Speaker 1>so scary. What really matters, I think, is what's happening

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<v Speaker 1>with the family that you are going to see, and

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<v Speaker 1>and what's going to happen when you see that family.

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<v Speaker 1>So is that family going to quarantine in advance so

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<v Speaker 1>that when you arrive, they will have quarantine for fourteen

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<v Speaker 1>days and there's no you know, zero to minimal risk

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<v Speaker 1>that they have been exposed is to COVID nineteen during

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<v Speaker 1>that time. And if it's a short trip where you're

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<v Speaker 1>just traveling thirty minutes and you're going to get to

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<v Speaker 1>their house and you still don't know definitively that they

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<v Speaker 1>have not had any exposures, then one safe way to

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<v Speaker 1>do it would be to celebrate outdoors or have an

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<v Speaker 1>outdoor visit where you're still distanced your masked, especially if

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<v Speaker 1>you go indoors, like to use the bathroom or things

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<v Speaker 1>like that. UM. I know in some places with the

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<v Speaker 1>weather as cold as it's s getty and and maybe

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<v Speaker 1>even snow, that outdoors celebrations are going to be harder.

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<v Speaker 1>In that situation gets a little tricky and difficult to

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<v Speaker 1>say exactly what you should do, because ventilation in some

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<v Speaker 1>places is really hard to change. In terms of, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>being able to open windows or at doors, and so

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<v Speaker 1>I think that it will just depend on where it

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<v Speaker 1>is that you're going and how it is that you're

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<v Speaker 1>going to get there. School really seems to be a

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<v Speaker 1>big complicating factor for the holidays. Yeah. Another caller wonders

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<v Speaker 1>what to do about her college aged kids. My question is,

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<v Speaker 1>I have two students who go to two different colleges,

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<v Speaker 1>and I'm worried about bringing them home for Thanksgiving and

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<v Speaker 1>winter break, and I don't know the correct protocol um

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<v Speaker 1>how to handle that. So I'm wondering if I could

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<v Speaker 1>get some advice on that. What we have been recommending

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<v Speaker 1>is that if possible, that you try and minimize as

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<v Speaker 1>much personal contact close contact with the college kids upon

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<v Speaker 1>arrival as possible. That would mean that you know, if

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<v Speaker 1>they have to stay in your house, that they're some

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<v Speaker 1>way that they can isolate within your house, that you're

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<v Speaker 1>increasing ventilation in your house. UM. You can also get

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<v Speaker 1>them tested I would say two to four days after

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<v Speaker 1>arrival in case there were any exposure during their travel,

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<v Speaker 1>and UM then continue to adhere to that fourteen day

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<v Speaker 1>quarantine if if possible. As well, For me, the bigger

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<v Speaker 1>question hasn't just been what to do about the holidays?

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<v Speaker 1>How long I can go without seeing my family? I

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<v Speaker 1>saw my grandmother last February, just a few weeks before

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<v Speaker 1>lockdowns began. If all of this goes on for another year,

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<v Speaker 1>do I go that long without seeing them? Or is

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<v Speaker 1>there time to do it? That might be safer than Christmas.

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<v Speaker 1>Bertha says she has been wrestling with the same thing.

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<v Speaker 1>I completely empathize because my parents and sisters live in

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<v Speaker 1>Los Angeles as well, and are in California and generally,

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<v Speaker 1>and I'm in Alabama, so I have had this conversation

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<v Speaker 1>with my husband for months now. It is a long

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<v Speaker 1>flight where a protective mask and also protective I wear,

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<v Speaker 1>if possible, a k if you're able to get your

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<v Speaker 1>hands on one. Um try to minimize removal of the

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<v Speaker 1>mask during your time, both on the plane and elsewhere,

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<v Speaker 1>and wash your hands when you're in the airport and

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<v Speaker 1>upon arrival. Some research has shown that transmission on the

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<v Speaker 1>actual airplane isn't all that bad, especially if people are

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<v Speaker 1>wearing masks, but a plane ride has many other potential

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<v Speaker 1>points of exposure, so if you do fly, Verta says

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<v Speaker 1>it's probably better to not stay with your family and

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<v Speaker 1>to see them outside if you can. I think it

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<v Speaker 1>just gets really tricky. I would say that unfortunately, I

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<v Speaker 1>think a lot of people are going to still try

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<v Speaker 1>and travel, and so I would maybe wait and pick

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<v Speaker 1>a month where travel is less likely to be busy.

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<v Speaker 1>So there you have it. If your family is gathering

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<v Speaker 1>this Thanksgiving, Hanukah or Christmas, there are ways to make it,

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<v Speaker 1>say for but the safest thing, as always is just

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<v Speaker 1>staying home. Plus then no one has to worry about

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<v Speaker 1>burning the turkey. That was Kristin V. Brown. And that's

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<v Speaker 1>it for our show today. For coverage of the outbreak

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<v Speaker 1>from one and twenty bureaus around the world, visit Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>dot com slash Coronavirus and if you like the show,

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<v Speaker 1>please leave us a review and a rating on Apple

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<v Speaker 1>Podcasts or Spotify. It's the best way to help more

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<v Speaker 1>listeners find our global reporting. The Prognosis Daily edition is

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<v Speaker 1>produced by tophra Forehez, Jordan Gospure, Magnus Hendrickson and me

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<v Speaker 1>Laura Carlson. Today's main story was reported by Kristin V. Brown.

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<v Speaker 1>Original music by Leo Sidrin. Our editors are Rick Shine

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<v Speaker 1>and Francesca Levi. Francesca Levi is Bloomberg's head of podcasts.

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<v Speaker 1>Thanks for listening, Les,