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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast. This is our Best

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Speaker 2: Bets episode for the twenty twenty five Masters team off

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Speaker 2: this week at Augusta National. I'm your host, Mike Calaberies

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Speaker 2: and joined today by a very special returning guest. He's

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Speaker 2: a golf betting expert, a two time Fantasy Sport Writers

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Speaker 2: Association Golf Writer of the Year, a senior PGA analyst

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Speaker 2: at Rotobawler, and co host of the new draftcast spinoff

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Speaker 2: called King of the Draft. You can find them online

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Speaker 2: at te Off Sports. Welcome back to the program, Spencer

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Speaker 2: Agiar Michael.

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Speaker 3: It's always an absolute pleasure to do this show with you.

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Speaker 1: Anything that I do over at Action Network is some

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Speaker 1: of my favorite content that I put out every week,

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Speaker 1: So I'll look forward to running through this board with

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Speaker 1: you today.

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Speaker 2: Well, we're sent to add up Magnolia Laye with you.

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Speaker 2: We're going to discuss the course, this field and of

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Speaker 2: course consult your model, all in pursuit of delivering the

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Speaker 2: biggest betting edges to our audience and what you're seeing

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Speaker 2: this week at Augusta. Before we dive into those, though,

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Speaker 2: there's probably a lot of listeners who may not bet

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Speaker 2: golf on a regular basis. So let me ask you

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Speaker 2: two questions right off the top. What makes the Masters

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Speaker 2: such a unique tournament from a golf modeling and gambling perspective?

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Speaker 2: And why do you just love this tournament?

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Speaker 1: I think my favorite thing about the Masters is that

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Speaker 1: whether you are a casual golf fan, somebody who maybe

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Speaker 1: favors all the other sports, or you're a diehard who eat,

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Speaker 1: sleeps and breeds this sport weekly, Augusta National really doesn't

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Speaker 1: need that much of an introduction just because it's the

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Speaker 1: most iconic venue in the world. I feel like people

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Speaker 1: growing up have seen Augusta. You've seen the azalea flowers,

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Speaker 1: You've heard about the Pimento cheese sandwiches, and you know

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Speaker 1: about the Green Jacket.

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Speaker 3: It's the one major that every.

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Speaker 1: Single year takes place at the same venue, so there's

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Speaker 1: a lot of history that takes place here. You have

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Speaker 1: wide open fairways that are nearly twenty yards in width.

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Speaker 1: That's going to present this feel of a long driver's paradise. However,

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Speaker 1: the one thing I want to note on this show

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Speaker 1: is that that aspect will only take you so far

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Speaker 1: because of the massive undulation of the surface here. And

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Speaker 1: the multiple tiered perspective that you get on the putting

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Speaker 1: greens on all eighteen holes. That's one of the reasons

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Speaker 1: that the long term data, when you look into it,

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Speaker 1: has generated just under a six percent enhancement when you

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Speaker 1: look into the dispersion of scoring for strokes gained around

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Speaker 1: the green. I don't want to make it sound as

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Speaker 1: if you struggle with that portion of your game it's

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Speaker 1: all of a sudden death sentence for you, although I

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Speaker 1: think that if you want to find high end success,

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Speaker 1: and if you're trying to find golfers who can do that,

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Speaker 1: you need to be elite with your long irons. You

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Speaker 1: have a lot of shots from two hundred plus yards.

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Speaker 1: This is a lengthy course. Like to me, long iron

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Speaker 1: play is probably more indicative for success than just pure distance.

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Speaker 1: And then if you want to traverse these green complexes,

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Speaker 1: it usually does take you multiple showings to become accustomed

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Speaker 1: to its unique layout. You will probably if you have

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Speaker 1: heard Golf Podcast this week or heard anything of that.

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Speaker 1: NAT Sure no first timer has won the Master since

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Speaker 1: Fuzzy Zeller in nineteen seventy nine. That kind of goes

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Speaker 1: down the road that I'm talking about here of there

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Speaker 1: being experience that's needed for this course. You know, I

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Speaker 1: think for me overall, a sharp short game if you

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Speaker 1: can scramble salvage scores with your three put avoidance, fiery

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Speaker 1: fast screens here and then if you look at the

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Speaker 1: pure distance answer, because I just want to go and

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Speaker 1: circle back to this one last time, because you do

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Speaker 1: have a venue that's over seven four hundred yards, yes,

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Speaker 1: it's going to need to be some sort of importance

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Speaker 1: for you. If you're not inside the top forty percent

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Speaker 1: of my model in distance off the tee, you're pretty

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Speaker 1: much eliminated from my build altogether.

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Speaker 3: But if you're only looking for long.

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Speaker 1: Distance, that should mean that a golfer like Bryson Deshambo

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Speaker 1: would have more success here than he's had. If you

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Speaker 1: look at Bryson Deshambo's profile, longest golfer in the world,

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Speaker 1: it took him until last year to post his first

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Speaker 1: top twenty at the property, and he did that an

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Speaker 1: extremely soft course on Thursday that got quicker as the

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Speaker 1: week went on, and you saw that score go downward.

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Speaker 1: And I don't think that that's how it's going to

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Speaker 1: play this year.

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Speaker 3: As this week.

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Speaker 1: Ends up, progressing from Thursday to Sunday, you're going to

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Speaker 1: have those fiery fast screens, so you're going to have

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Speaker 1: to know where you can miss, where you cannot miss,

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Speaker 1: and then take advantage of your opportunities when you get them.

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Speaker 2: I like that you brought up two facts. The first

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Speaker 2: that it's so difficult for first timers to win here

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Speaker 2: at Augustin National and also how intoxicating the optics and

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Speaker 2: the aura of this place can be. And I'm not

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Speaker 2: just talking about the six dollars domestics that they're serving

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Speaker 2: up to the patrons in the audience. It's interesting you

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Speaker 2: heard Scotti Scheffler talk about this in interview last week

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Speaker 2: that his very first year here he overpracticed. He overdid

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Speaker 2: it because he just didn't want to get away from

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Speaker 2: the ambiance and the environment where you need to start

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Speaker 2: to have a game plan, not just in terms of

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Speaker 2: the shots that you're making on the course, but also

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Speaker 2: your preparation and making sure that you're not burning out overpracticing.

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Speaker 2: So just an interesting anecdote from the defending champion. One

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Speaker 2: last question though, before we hop into some of your

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Speaker 2: bets and angles and how you're going to play this tournament.

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Speaker 2: Today is Tuesday. One recording which means that it's the

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Speaker 2: champion's dinner. Scottie Shuffler is going with a Texas heavy

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Speaker 2: menu cheeseburger sliders, Texas style chili, wood fired Cowboy ribbi,

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Speaker 2: and a chocolate chip skillet cookie dessert. I think it's

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Speaker 2: a pretty flawless menu top to bottom. If you were

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Speaker 2: to be a champion and you were setting the menu,

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Speaker 2: what would be on your card?

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Speaker 1: I would probably keep it rather simple. I would start

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Speaker 1: with the caesar salad. I love filet mignon, Give me

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Speaker 1: file give me lobster. And then for a dessert, I

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Speaker 1: have a sweet tooth that anything chocolate in the world like.

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Speaker 1: You could just put the entire dessert menu of a

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Speaker 1: chocolate ensemble of goodness there and I would be very happy.

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Speaker 2: As many of the audience members know, I'm Calabrese from

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Speaker 2: the Mediterranean, so I'm going to keep it Mediterranean with

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Speaker 2: my menu. Top to bottom, Rhode Island style kalamari with

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Speaker 2: peppers to start, a feta dip from the Greek Isles,

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Speaker 2: lemon orzo soup, chicken slovaki, and Zeppel's the trio of

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Speaker 2: dipping sauces for a dessert. That's at least the way

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Speaker 2: I would play it if I could, you know, maybe

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Speaker 2: shoot underneath the ninety for once in my life. I

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Speaker 2: think there's probably a good chance that I'll never get

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Speaker 2: to set the Master's menu, but if I did, hopefully

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Speaker 2: I can influence, you know, somebody who has the game

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Speaker 2: to actually put on the green jacket. And for those

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Speaker 2: looking to participate this week from a DFS perspective, Spencer

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Speaker 2: and our Fantasy Flex podcast crew teamed up with DraftKings

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Speaker 2: to dedicate an entire episode to DraftKings ten dollars Fantasy

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Speaker 2: Golf Millionaire contests, So be sure to check that out

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Speaker 2: over at Fantasy Flex. Now, if you went purely by

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Speaker 2: the betting market, it seems as though there's two elite

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Speaker 2: golfers and then there's everybody else. Scotti Shuffler, the defending

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Speaker 2: champion of the Masters, is priced at four to one

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Speaker 2: in the market, and then there's Rory, still in pursuit

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Speaker 2: of that career Grand Slam. He's in the plus six

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Speaker 2: fifty neighborhood. Do you see this as a wide open

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Speaker 2: field that could produce another Danny Willett, a Charles Schwartzel,

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Speaker 2: a Treble Emmerman or will this be the fourth strate

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Speaker 2: Masters with a contensus top five golfer take home the

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Speaker 2: green jacket.

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Speaker 1: I like that you asked that question, Michael, So I

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Speaker 1: write an article every year. It's called the Seven Deadly Sins.

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Speaker 1: I want to preface this answer by saying that I

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Speaker 1: do not typically believe in trends in anything of that

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Speaker 1: world of those returns. I kind of said this yesterday

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Speaker 1: on the Fantasy Flex Show. Trends are often lazy narratives

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Speaker 1: that are already known by sports books. They're used when

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Speaker 1: you really don't have a better way to articulate your

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Speaker 1: stance from a statistical perspective. However, when we go and

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Speaker 1: we circle back to what I said earlier in the show,

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Speaker 1: it's the one time of year in golf where I

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Speaker 1: do believe trends matter. This is the one major championship

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Speaker 1: that has played at the same course every single year,

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Speaker 1: and we know exactly what we need from a statistical perspective,

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Speaker 1: with it being the most predictive venue year in and

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Speaker 1: year out.

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Speaker 3: So you know, you can read.

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Speaker 1: That article get the entire list of players who qualified

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Speaker 1: for me who ended up not getting eliminated by one

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Speaker 1: of those sins there. But I mentioned that article for

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Speaker 1: two reasons, and it kind of stems back to the

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Speaker 1: question that you just asked there. One I started writing

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Speaker 1: that piece in twenty nineteen. You are one hundred percent correct.

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Speaker 1: Chalky names have won this tournament every single season since

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Speaker 1: then then. But if you look at my article specifically,

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Speaker 1: it has delivered all six winners there. And I understand

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Speaker 1: that anybody who hears that goes, well, you picked a

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Speaker 1: bunch of favorites who won a golf tournament. Congratulations on that.

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Speaker 1: That's not exactly how that goes, though, because when I

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Speaker 1: cut down these players and I narrow down the list,

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Speaker 1: you usually get a list that's somewhere between. At the

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Speaker 1: very low end of it, six names out of ninety

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Speaker 1: something plus this year we have ninety five, But it's

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Speaker 1: usually about six names to ten or eleven names that

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Speaker 1: survived to the very end. Some of those will be

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Speaker 1: your favorites, the Scotti Shufflers of the world are always

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Speaker 1: on there. Sometimes you get really big names eliminated, and

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Speaker 1: we'll talk about some of those in a second. But

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Speaker 1: this particular season, fifteen names for me qualified until the

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Speaker 1: very end. That is the most I've ever had before.

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Speaker 1: To me that a story that this might be more

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Speaker 1: of a wide open Major or a Master's Championship than

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Speaker 1: we've gotten in a while. Maybe you could put that

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Speaker 1: to the poor early season play that we've seen from

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Speaker 1: Scotty Scheffler. It could be Xander Shaftley, who has not

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Speaker 1: been extremely sharp himself. But you know, a lot of

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Speaker 1: those answers have opened up this field for my model.

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Speaker 1: And when that answer ends up coming to the forefront

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Speaker 1: of the discussion and you hear everybody talking about it,

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Speaker 1: you will hear it over and over again. It's Scotty

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Speaker 1: or Rory. Scotty or Rory Scotty or Rory. I don't

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Speaker 1: necessarily have a major pushback to that. I do think

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Speaker 1: those are the two highest inequity golfers that you're going

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Speaker 1: to find. Rory's name, in particular, I've done a lot

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Speaker 1: of Action Network shows for the Masters. Michael and I

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Speaker 1: have come on frequently. I've almost look for the last

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Speaker 1: two years specifically, and you've heard Rory come out of

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Speaker 1: my mouth over and over and over again. My concern

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Speaker 1: with this is is this is beyond what a skill

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Speaker 1: set is at this point. This is what is between

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Speaker 1: is ears in his head. This is what he applies

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Speaker 1: so much pressure on himself trying to capture the career

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Speaker 1: Grand Slam here. And the reason why I didn't go

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Speaker 1: with him in the betting market is because a lot

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Speaker 1: of those shows that I'm talking about over the last

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Speaker 1: two years.

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Speaker 3: I got him at eleven, twelve, thirteen, fourteen to one.

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Speaker 1: We saw sharp money hit on him, maybe some of

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Speaker 1: that being my own that pushed him down into the

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Speaker 1: single digit range throughout the week. This is a much

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Speaker 1: different outlook for this tournament. He opened at six six

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Speaker 1: and a half. You might be able to get him

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Speaker 1: at seven to one somewhere. It kind of feels like

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Speaker 1: to me that a lot of the value has already

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Speaker 1: been taken out of the market. Maybe that's sportsbooks being

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Speaker 1: aware that people are gonna bet him. It's the best

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Speaker 1: form that he's been in entering this tournament arguably. Ever,

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Speaker 1: I would make an argument on the flip side of it,

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Speaker 1: and you see it a little bit in head to

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Speaker 1: head markets, Scotty Shuffler, in my opinion, has been a

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Speaker 1: little bit disrespected. I understand the form is not what

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Speaker 1: you want it to be leading into this, and there's

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Speaker 1: this narrative that nobody's won back to back Masters and

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Speaker 1: if that's the reason why people are limiting Scheffler from

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Speaker 1: their list of options, like I think I do not

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Speaker 1: agree with that whatsoever. It just for me though at

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Speaker 1: the end of the day, I'm never going to start

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Speaker 1: with those two when I don't have the value to

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Speaker 1: do it. I would say I worry the most about

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Speaker 1: Scheffler at the top. If you're trying to get contrarian

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Speaker 1: with an answer, I think Xander and rom would probably

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Speaker 1: be the two ways to do it at the very top.

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Speaker 1: But my betting card is going to take a different

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Speaker 1: outlook this week. I started this. My very first name

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Speaker 1: on my board is a forty to one golfer. I

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Speaker 1: will mention him last because I have a lot to

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Speaker 1: say about him, and then it traverses through the odds

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Speaker 1: board up until seventy to one for me, So I

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Speaker 1: started with the name here at seventy to one. You

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Speaker 1: can still find sixties if you shop around. I took

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Speaker 1: a Robert MacIntyre. This course has always had a left

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Speaker 1: handed bias to it. You look at the shop shaping

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Speaker 1: the advantage it gives players. We've seen that come to

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Speaker 1: fruition with a green jacket being placed on that player.

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Speaker 3: That's left.

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Speaker 1: He six times over the last twenty two years of

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Speaker 1: this tournament. You've also seen lefties who have found success

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Speaker 1: at this event. Think of Bubba Watson, think of Phil Mickelson.

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Speaker 1: They consistently do this at this venue over and over again.

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Speaker 1: I wish McIntyre didn't have this two year gap in

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Speaker 1: his profile. We have not seen him qualify for this

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Speaker 1: tournament over the last two years, but if you look

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Speaker 1: at the two times that he's played it before, then

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Speaker 1: two top twenty three finishes in those attempts.

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Speaker 3: He grades ideally for this track.

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Speaker 1: He ranked six in this field over two year running

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Speaker 1: perspective from that two hundred plus yards range that I

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Speaker 1: was talking about with his irons. And then there's this

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Speaker 1: very key statistic that has always delivered the Masters champion

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Speaker 1: that you have to be inside of the top ten

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Speaker 1: on inside of my model to win, and McIntyre ranked

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Speaker 1: fourth for me in this category. So essentially, when you

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Speaker 1: look at Augusta, it's a venue where you need to

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Speaker 1: take advantage of the par fives and you need to

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Speaker 1: salvage your score everywhere else. Avoid producing bogies is essentially

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Speaker 1: going to be the name of the game there. Mac

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Speaker 1: and entire skill set does that almost better than anybody

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Speaker 1: else in the field. I really like him this week.

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Speaker 1: I thought when he opened at seventy and there were

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Speaker 1: even some rogue eighties, nineties one hundred's leading into this tournament,

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Speaker 1: and this number has been bet down to me, this

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Speaker 1: is a very sharp play on Robert MacIntyre.

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Speaker 3: Here. Does he actually get across the finish line? I

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Speaker 3: do not know.

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Speaker 1: I gave this very same similar answer at the US

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Speaker 1: Open when Wyndham Clark won it, and Wyndham Clark ended

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Speaker 1: up getting across the finish line when I had him

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Speaker 1: at one hundred to one. So I kind of view

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Speaker 1: this in a very similar situation as this thing I

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Speaker 1: took Russell Henley at fifty five to one. One of

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Speaker 1: the articles I wrote to start twenty twenty five was

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Speaker 1: that Henry is a legitimate top ten player in the world.

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Speaker 1: I don't think that the betting public originally thought that

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Speaker 1: I was lucky enough to grab him a few weeks

291
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Speaker 1: ago at the API. I still remain a believer that

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Speaker 1: he has top five production. Over the last two years

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Speaker 1: of my running model, I talked about the betting public

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Speaker 1: not necessarily catching up to that person. Yet you know,

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Speaker 1: when I talked on Fantasy Flex yesterday and you can

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Speaker 1: go back and listen to that Conversationan Henley.

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Speaker 3: He's going to be very popular for DFS.

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Speaker 1: I think that there's a lot of people that have

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Speaker 1: now started to catch that these prices are too low

300
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Speaker 1: on him. The difference with the betting market is is

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Speaker 1: we're just number grabbing. We're taking a price fifty five

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Speaker 1: to one is too high. There is a lack of distance,

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Speaker 1: like we have talked about here. But one of the

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Speaker 1: key stats that I liked about Henley specifically is that

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Speaker 1: when you put him on these long courses four hundred

306
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Speaker 1: yards plus, he's a top ten player in the world

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Speaker 1: specifically on those venues, and he sees a five to

308
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Speaker 1: ten yard uptick in driving distance. So you know, any

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Speaker 1: of those numbers that you get from just the core

310
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Speaker 1: of the data there that's going to show him at

311
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Speaker 1: about two hundred and eighty nine yards off the tee.

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Speaker 3: I think he's actually a little.

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Speaker 1: Bit longer than that when he can just put his

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Speaker 1: feet down actually take a little bit of a wider

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Speaker 1: swing on these wide open fairways. And it doesn't mean

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Speaker 1: he's going to average three hundred ten yards off the tee,

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Speaker 1: but he can't get there into the three hundred yards,

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Speaker 1: and to me like that is the very bottom end

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Speaker 1: of the baseline of golfers who can still win this tournament.

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Speaker 1: So I thought fifty five to one was a really

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Speaker 1: good number on Henley. I took Min wou Lee at

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Speaker 1: sixty to one. It's funny because I talked about how

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Speaker 1: bollish I always am on Henley. It's usually the opposite

324
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Speaker 1: from Min Wu he is. I mean, you can date

325
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Speaker 1: this back to any of the action shows I've ever done.

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Speaker 1: He is probably the golfer that I have faded in

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Speaker 1: matchups more than anybody else on tour that may not

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Speaker 1: be named. I guess will Zalatorus in this they'll seem

329
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Speaker 1: to be the two guys that I'm always lower on

330
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Speaker 1: the market consensus, which is why when you look two

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Speaker 1: weeks ago when he went out in Texas, my model

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00:15:37,720 --> 00:15:39,880
Speaker 1: had him as the second best win equity player in

333
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Speaker 1: the sheet.

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Speaker 3: I got him at fifty to one. He won that

335
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Speaker 3: golf tournament.

336
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Speaker 1: I don't necessarily have the same upside answers this go around.

337
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Speaker 1: Here at the Masters, it's a better field, it's a

338
00:15:49,320 --> 00:15:51,960
Speaker 1: little bit more difficult to win this. But when you

339
00:15:52,120 --> 00:15:54,720
Speaker 1: actually take data, you can make it do a lot

340
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Speaker 1: of things, Michael.

341
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Speaker 3: And sometimes what you're doing is just fluff. It's just

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00:15:59,560 --> 00:16:02,520
Speaker 3: you're throwing things out to look good. Sometimes there's actually

343
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Speaker 3: merit behind it.

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Speaker 1: And we'll see if for Minwu, here I which side

345
00:16:05,760 --> 00:16:08,960
Speaker 1: of the islet lands on. But Minwu was the only

346
00:16:09,040 --> 00:16:11,440
Speaker 1: golfer for me in my model that when I took

347
00:16:11,480 --> 00:16:15,520
Speaker 1: proximity from two hundred plus yards driving distance, waited around

348
00:16:15,560 --> 00:16:17,880
Speaker 1: the green production that's going to be specifically for Augusta,

349
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Speaker 1: and then waited putting, which once again is for Augusta.

350
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Speaker 1: That ranked inside of the top fifteen of my model

351
00:16:24,320 --> 00:16:26,840
Speaker 1: in every single one of those categories. I think that's

352
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Speaker 1: sixty to one number is very intriguing. I think the

353
00:16:29,880 --> 00:16:33,360
Speaker 1: upside that he presents for DFS is very interesting because

354
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Speaker 1: he's not going to be as popular.

355
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Speaker 3: I think a lot of people deem this.

356
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Speaker 1: To be the opposite of the Henley answer for DFS

357
00:16:39,040 --> 00:16:42,480
Speaker 1: to where the price tag in people's opinions, are too high.

358
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Speaker 1: So I think Minwu presents a really boom or bust

359
00:16:45,720 --> 00:16:48,320
Speaker 1: sort of a nature to the tournament. For an outright bet,

360
00:16:48,360 --> 00:16:51,080
Speaker 1: I'm going to gamble on that potential. And then I

361
00:16:51,120 --> 00:16:54,040
Speaker 1: alluded to this at the very beginning of this conversation

362
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Speaker 1: that I started my card at forty to one. That's

363
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Speaker 1: with the name that another name just like Minwulee Michael

364
00:16:59,440 --> 00:17:01,920
Speaker 1: that I don't bet very often, that's Brooks Kopka at

365
00:17:01,960 --> 00:17:05,919
Speaker 1: forty to one. I think as an industry we have

366
00:17:06,040 --> 00:17:09,119
Speaker 1: gone through so many ebbs and flows regarding what Brooks

367
00:17:09,200 --> 00:17:12,320
Speaker 1: Kopka is as a golfer. I remember when he captured

368
00:17:12,320 --> 00:17:16,000
Speaker 1: his fifth major at the twenty twenty three PGA Championship.

369
00:17:16,400 --> 00:17:19,040
Speaker 1: Everyone was talking about how Kopka was a surefire lock,

370
00:17:19,280 --> 00:17:21,040
Speaker 1: he was going to get the ten plus majors before

371
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Speaker 1: the end of his career, and I was very, very

372
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Speaker 1: aggressively on the opposite end of that spectrum. There one

373
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Speaker 1: of the answers that I would often respond when somebody

374
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Speaker 1: asked me how many majors will Keepka win? I said,

375
00:17:31,880 --> 00:17:34,320
Speaker 1: he's more likely to be stuck at five than he

376
00:17:34,400 --> 00:17:36,800
Speaker 1: is to get to ten. And you know, I don't

377
00:17:36,800 --> 00:17:39,159
Speaker 1: know exactly where we're gonna land. He's still in his

378
00:17:39,200 --> 00:17:41,399
Speaker 1: mid thirties. He could get hot again and all of

379
00:17:41,440 --> 00:17:43,600
Speaker 1: a sudden ring off a couple more and get himself

380
00:17:43,640 --> 00:17:47,040
Speaker 1: here into the six, seven, eight, nine, ten sort of arrange.

381
00:17:47,160 --> 00:17:50,400
Speaker 1: But I think when we look from the general public

382
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Speaker 1: on this answer, you used to have this narrative around Kopka,

383
00:17:54,600 --> 00:17:57,680
Speaker 1: big game hunter, a golfer that's going to enter all

384
00:17:57,680 --> 00:17:59,680
Speaker 1: these majors and he's gonna give you the best result

385
00:17:59,720 --> 00:18:02,080
Speaker 1: he possibly give you, regardless of what.

386
00:18:02,119 --> 00:18:02,679
Speaker 3: His form is.

387
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Speaker 1: And then when he entered live, I don't think people

388
00:18:05,080 --> 00:18:07,919
Speaker 1: were as concerned about him as other golfers because he

389
00:18:08,040 --> 00:18:10,439
Speaker 1: was never really a guy that flashed leading into majors

390
00:18:10,480 --> 00:18:12,920
Speaker 1: to begin with. And we saw him win that twenty

391
00:18:13,000 --> 00:18:16,000
Speaker 1: twenty three PGA Championship that I talked about. But since

392
00:18:16,040 --> 00:18:19,040
Speaker 1: that major result, it's been six bad results in a row.

393
00:18:19,080 --> 00:18:21,760
Speaker 1: He hasn't finished better than twenty six. All six of

394
00:18:21,800 --> 00:18:24,639
Speaker 1: those finishes have landed between twenty six and forty fifth.

395
00:18:25,400 --> 00:18:28,520
Speaker 1: I just think that those concerns have been massively overblown

396
00:18:28,560 --> 00:18:32,000
Speaker 1: in this situation. I don't know where Keepka stands. We

397
00:18:32,040 --> 00:18:34,120
Speaker 1: can give this answer with all of the live golfers.

398
00:18:34,160 --> 00:18:37,040
Speaker 1: I can see live results. There's very limited data for

399
00:18:37,119 --> 00:18:39,160
Speaker 1: us to be able to pull from in those situations.

400
00:18:39,560 --> 00:18:42,680
Speaker 1: But with that, and with the uncertainty, and with Kepka

401
00:18:42,680 --> 00:18:45,880
Speaker 1: being the overlooked commodity there. This is another number grab

402
00:18:45,960 --> 00:18:48,840
Speaker 1: situation to where this is a golfer that has two

403
00:18:48,880 --> 00:18:51,320
Speaker 1: times come second at this course. He's talked about his

404
00:18:51,400 --> 00:18:54,720
Speaker 1: comfortability at this venue. Think he has the ideal skill

405
00:18:54,720 --> 00:18:57,359
Speaker 1: set to still find an advantage here. Talk about the

406
00:18:57,400 --> 00:18:59,639
Speaker 1: long iron play that I discussed, you talk about the

407
00:18:59,680 --> 00:19:03,120
Speaker 1: short acumen. All of that still comes into play for him.

408
00:19:03,200 --> 00:19:06,280
Speaker 1: So it's going to be this boom or bust outcome

409
00:19:06,320 --> 00:19:08,680
Speaker 1: from him. But I did think that forty to one

410
00:19:08,720 --> 00:19:11,800
Speaker 1: plus depending on where that ends up drifting too, because

411
00:19:12,160 --> 00:19:14,280
Speaker 1: by the time we tee off on Thursday, I don't

412
00:19:14,280 --> 00:19:15,800
Speaker 1: know where this is gonna land. This has not been

413
00:19:15,840 --> 00:19:18,560
Speaker 1: getting shorter throughout the week, It just keeps climbing. I

414
00:19:18,640 --> 00:19:20,359
Speaker 1: think it's worth a gamble on him there.

415
00:19:21,320 --> 00:19:24,200
Speaker 2: So you laid out a handful of really interesting medium

416
00:19:24,240 --> 00:19:27,440
Speaker 2: to long range odd players, and I think that kind

417
00:19:27,480 --> 00:19:31,000
Speaker 2: of feeds into a question that we cover particularly in

418
00:19:31,080 --> 00:19:34,080
Speaker 2: any major sporting event across Action Network, and it's the

419
00:19:34,160 --> 00:19:37,920
Speaker 2: live betting angles. You may not have a pre tournament,

420
00:19:37,960 --> 00:19:40,480
Speaker 2: a pre match, a pregame number that you love, but

421
00:19:40,560 --> 00:19:43,720
Speaker 2: if a certain narrative plays out and the number becomes lucrative.

422
00:19:43,760 --> 00:19:46,000
Speaker 2: You want to hop in of the let's call it

423
00:19:46,040 --> 00:19:48,320
Speaker 2: the top five to ten golfers in this field. Who

424
00:19:48,359 --> 00:19:51,440
Speaker 2: do you think is best positioned to make up after

425
00:19:51,640 --> 00:19:54,679
Speaker 2: let's call it a mortal first day on Thursday and

426
00:19:54,720 --> 00:19:57,399
Speaker 2: then all of a sudden rocket up the leaderboard and

427
00:19:57,440 --> 00:19:59,879
Speaker 2: come back with a double digit odd number as opposed

428
00:19:59,880 --> 00:20:02,320
Speaker 2: to a fourd to one, a seven to one, as

429
00:20:02,359 --> 00:20:05,280
Speaker 2: I alluded to earlier. In terms of Scotty and Rory

430
00:20:05,320 --> 00:20:06,360
Speaker 2: at the top of the card.

431
00:20:06,560 --> 00:20:09,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's usually the Rory blueprint at the Masters. He

432
00:20:09,000 --> 00:20:11,320
Speaker 1: doesn't quite get himself there. The problem with that answer

433
00:20:11,440 --> 00:20:14,199
Speaker 1: is is Rory, no matter what he doesn't, you can

434
00:20:14,200 --> 00:20:16,080
Speaker 1: put Scotty in the same boat there. No matter what

435
00:20:16,119 --> 00:20:18,640
Speaker 1: they do in round one, those numbers are not gonna

436
00:20:18,680 --> 00:20:20,720
Speaker 1: get much better. So we're gonna have to probably throw

437
00:20:20,760 --> 00:20:23,440
Speaker 1: those two out for this discussion. I just don't think

438
00:20:23,480 --> 00:20:25,879
Speaker 1: we ever see a drift far enough up for it

439
00:20:25,920 --> 00:20:28,560
Speaker 1: to make logical sense. For me, it would probably be

440
00:20:28,640 --> 00:20:34,119
Speaker 1: either John Rohm or Xander Schoftley. Shoffley's another golfer that

441
00:20:34,200 --> 00:20:37,840
Speaker 1: I back quite frequently. In a lot of these tournaments,

442
00:20:38,080 --> 00:20:41,520
Speaker 1: major Championships included. There was a narrative around him for

443
00:20:41,560 --> 00:20:44,119
Speaker 1: the longest time that he could not get himself across

444
00:20:44,160 --> 00:20:46,800
Speaker 1: the finish line and then does it two times last year,

445
00:20:46,800 --> 00:20:49,600
Speaker 1: and that narrative has gone out the window. I'm very

446
00:20:49,640 --> 00:20:52,160
Speaker 1: curious to see what rom and Xander do on day one.

447
00:20:52,200 --> 00:20:55,320
Speaker 1: I'm curious to see where their odds drift throughout the tournament.

448
00:20:55,640 --> 00:20:57,840
Speaker 1: I think those are two names that the public still

449
00:20:57,840 --> 00:21:01,120
Speaker 1: seems to be much lower on, and when that's the case,

450
00:21:01,160 --> 00:21:03,439
Speaker 1: we can potentially get some drifts that occur with it.

451
00:21:03,520 --> 00:21:06,439
Speaker 1: And I mean, I agree with you one hundred percent, Michael, Like,

452
00:21:06,480 --> 00:21:09,639
Speaker 1: that's one of the reasons I love my pre tournament model.

453
00:21:09,680 --> 00:21:12,119
Speaker 3: My pre tournament model is my baby.

454
00:21:12,160 --> 00:21:14,280
Speaker 1: It's like my bread and butter for all my matchups

455
00:21:14,320 --> 00:21:17,800
Speaker 1: and everything there. But my in tournament model is my

456
00:21:17,880 --> 00:21:20,440
Speaker 1: favorite thing that I have because you know, I take

457
00:21:20,440 --> 00:21:23,040
Speaker 1: the pre tournament data, I merge it and infuse it

458
00:21:23,040 --> 00:21:26,240
Speaker 1: into the in tournament stats. It gives me my weights

459
00:21:26,240 --> 00:21:28,679
Speaker 1: and my grades and my ranks for every single player.

460
00:21:28,680 --> 00:21:32,080
Speaker 1: And that's something that every single week betting, week in

461
00:21:32,119 --> 00:21:33,439
Speaker 1: and week out, and I've been doing this for a

462
00:21:33,440 --> 00:21:36,520
Speaker 1: really long time. That is where I make my most

463
00:21:36,560 --> 00:21:38,919
Speaker 1: money is from the in tournament bets, specifically on the

464
00:21:38,920 --> 00:21:39,879
Speaker 1: match up front of it.

465
00:21:39,960 --> 00:21:43,000
Speaker 3: That's that is my go to sector there.

466
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Speaker 2: Want to make extra money daily from your sports betting.

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Speaker 2: all right, Spencer, any additional bets or angles that you're

487
00:22:50,040 --> 00:22:52,000
Speaker 2: looking for, As I mentioned at the top, for some

488
00:22:52,040 --> 00:22:54,240
Speaker 2: of the casuals who are not betting golf on a

489
00:22:54,240 --> 00:22:58,800
Speaker 2: weekly basis, there's different opportunities to hop into markets. Top international,

490
00:22:58,840 --> 00:23:01,520
Speaker 2: top amateur. You mentioned some of those head to heads.

491
00:23:02,119 --> 00:23:03,840
Speaker 2: Are there anything else on your car that you like

492
00:23:03,880 --> 00:23:05,159
Speaker 2: to share with us before the actions?

493
00:23:05,160 --> 00:23:08,480
Speaker 1: He's off on Thursday, So I'm going to keep fit

494
00:23:08,720 --> 00:23:11,240
Speaker 1: in the head to head market. Something that I want

495
00:23:11,280 --> 00:23:13,439
Speaker 1: everybody out there to at least keep in mind is

496
00:23:13,960 --> 00:23:17,560
Speaker 1: for my matchups specifically, I'm always trying to find fade

497
00:23:17,560 --> 00:23:19,280
Speaker 1: candidates over.

498
00:23:19,160 --> 00:23:20,640
Speaker 3: Guys I'm just trying to back.

499
00:23:20,960 --> 00:23:22,480
Speaker 1: I think a lot of times when you try to

500
00:23:22,520 --> 00:23:25,760
Speaker 1: find guys that you're just looking to back. The market

501
00:23:25,760 --> 00:23:28,320
Speaker 1: has gotten very sharp over the last two years, and

502
00:23:28,880 --> 00:23:31,200
Speaker 1: you know, those names get put up against a lot

503
00:23:31,200 --> 00:23:34,919
Speaker 1: of other sharp golfers and you get these very tiny

504
00:23:35,080 --> 00:23:37,920
Speaker 1: edges that end up coming into play from there. So

505
00:23:38,400 --> 00:23:40,880
Speaker 1: I'm always trying to find is where am I lower

506
00:23:40,880 --> 00:23:42,119
Speaker 1: than the market on a player?

507
00:23:42,160 --> 00:23:43,600
Speaker 3: Where is there a golfer.

508
00:23:43,240 --> 00:23:46,800
Speaker 1: That I can hopefully, yes, find somebody that I am

509
00:23:47,200 --> 00:23:50,240
Speaker 1: higher on than the general population, but where am I

510
00:23:50,359 --> 00:23:52,439
Speaker 1: lower than it seems to be? And there were a

511
00:23:52,440 --> 00:23:55,080
Speaker 1: couple of names for me that landed into that territory.

512
00:23:56,200 --> 00:23:59,359
Speaker 1: Victor Hovlin was one of them. Didn't necessarily find a

513
00:23:59,400 --> 00:24:01,600
Speaker 1: matchup where I wanted to go down that route. I

514
00:24:01,600 --> 00:24:04,959
Speaker 1: think you can consider a Brooks Koepka. The Unknown's kind

515
00:24:05,000 --> 00:24:08,000
Speaker 1: of had me stay off of that one. One of

516
00:24:08,040 --> 00:24:11,159
Speaker 1: the ones I gave on Monday was Patrick Reid minus

517
00:24:11,160 --> 00:24:14,399
Speaker 1: one twenty five oversaw it the Gala. You might have

518
00:24:14,440 --> 00:24:17,199
Speaker 1: to shop around for that price. Still, we kind of

519
00:24:17,200 --> 00:24:20,720
Speaker 1: obliterated that line in the roto ball or discord that

520
00:24:20,800 --> 00:24:23,880
Speaker 1: I have. I think if you look at that one specifically, though,

521
00:24:23,920 --> 00:24:26,240
Speaker 1: and you're trying to find reasons to fait the Gala,

522
00:24:26,680 --> 00:24:29,480
Speaker 1: He's averaged negative one point nine strokes with his irons

523
00:24:29,480 --> 00:24:32,120
Speaker 1: over his last five tournaments and just under a half

524
00:24:32,160 --> 00:24:35,160
Speaker 1: stroke off the tee. I do think that the wide

525
00:24:35,200 --> 00:24:38,360
Speaker 1: open nature of Augusta does help him marginally to find

526
00:24:38,400 --> 00:24:41,600
Speaker 1: a little bit more safety. But my biggest takeaway from

527
00:24:41,680 --> 00:24:43,679
Speaker 1: him is when you look at this two year running

528
00:24:43,720 --> 00:24:46,280
Speaker 1: model that I have from his short game. It is

529
00:24:46,359 --> 00:24:49,200
Speaker 1: not as stout as it used to be. My model

530
00:24:49,240 --> 00:24:51,480
Speaker 1: two years ago, a year and a half ago, used

531
00:24:51,520 --> 00:24:53,000
Speaker 1: to view him as a top ten player in the

532
00:24:53,000 --> 00:24:54,919
Speaker 1: world when it came to around the green play, and

533
00:24:55,240 --> 00:24:57,920
Speaker 1: that's one of the reasons why he consistently found success here.

534
00:24:58,000 --> 00:25:00,000
Speaker 1: Mixed with that ability to spray the ball off the time,

535
00:25:00,640 --> 00:25:02,320
Speaker 1: it's not as good as it used to be. You

536
00:25:02,359 --> 00:25:05,240
Speaker 1: had it to read, hasn't finished worse here than thirty

537
00:25:05,280 --> 00:25:08,120
Speaker 1: six and seven years of playing it. I just get

538
00:25:08,160 --> 00:25:11,160
Speaker 1: overall a golfer who's safer in my sheet. I thought

539
00:25:11,200 --> 00:25:14,119
Speaker 1: this was playable up into the minus one sixty five range,

540
00:25:14,160 --> 00:25:15,800
Speaker 1: so it kind of shows what kind of value I

541
00:25:15,840 --> 00:25:19,159
Speaker 1: had there at that minus one twenty five open and

542
00:25:19,200 --> 00:25:21,520
Speaker 1: then the other one that I will mention on here.

543
00:25:21,840 --> 00:25:25,480
Speaker 1: I talked about him yesterday when I talked to Chris

544
00:25:25,560 --> 00:25:29,560
Speaker 1: Raybond and Derek Farnsworth on the Fantasy Flex. The most

545
00:25:29,760 --> 00:25:33,120
Speaker 1: mispriced player for DFS, and it's going to correlate here

546
00:25:33,160 --> 00:25:37,280
Speaker 1: for betting inside of my model, was Keegan Bradley. There

547
00:25:37,280 --> 00:25:40,520
Speaker 1: are matchups out there, specifically at a book like bet

548
00:25:40,520 --> 00:25:44,040
Speaker 1: three six five where you can find Keegan Bradley over

549
00:25:44,200 --> 00:25:47,400
Speaker 1: Tom Kim. You know, Tom Kim is one of those

550
00:25:47,440 --> 00:25:50,639
Speaker 1: fade candidates inside of my model. I think he's gotten

551
00:25:50,680 --> 00:25:54,000
Speaker 1: a boosted profile here because the course history looks fine.

552
00:25:54,080 --> 00:25:56,040
Speaker 3: But it's a very big year for Bradley.

553
00:25:56,320 --> 00:25:59,000
Speaker 1: It's one of those Ryder Cup captain trying to play

554
00:25:59,000 --> 00:26:01,760
Speaker 1: his way onto the team. The statistics great as a

555
00:26:01,760 --> 00:26:04,640
Speaker 1: top twenty player in the field, markets do not grade

556
00:26:04,720 --> 00:26:07,439
Speaker 1: him as a top twenty player for this tournament, so

557
00:26:08,200 --> 00:26:11,800
Speaker 1: higher on him than general population, lower on Tom Kim.

558
00:26:12,400 --> 00:26:14,480
Speaker 1: Those are my two favorite matchups at this point.

559
00:26:15,160 --> 00:26:17,480
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Best Bets episode for the

560
00:26:17,560 --> 00:26:20,040
Speaker 2: twenty twenty five Masters, and again for those looking to

561
00:26:20,040 --> 00:26:23,600
Speaker 2: participate this week from a DFS perspective, Spencer and our

562
00:26:23,680 --> 00:26:27,199
Speaker 2: Fantasy Flex podcast crew teamed up with DraftKings to dedicate

563
00:26:27,200 --> 00:26:30,600
Speaker 2: an entire episode to the DK ten dollars Fantasy Golf

564
00:26:30,600 --> 00:26:33,280
Speaker 2: Millionaire Contest, so be sure to check that out over

565
00:26:33,400 --> 00:26:36,680
Speaker 2: at Fantasy Flex. For Spencer Aggie are on My Calabery's

566
00:26:36,680 --> 00:26:39,120
Speaker 2: Best of Luck betting the Masters this week, and we'll

567
00:26:39,119 --> 00:26:41,840
Speaker 2: see you here next time on the Action Network podcast.

568
00:26:48,000 --> 00:26:52,520
Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly if you or

569
00:26:52,560 --> 00:26:55,320
Speaker 2: someone you care about has a gambling problem. Help is

570
00:26:55,359 --> 00:26:58,520
Speaker 2: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler