Speaker 1: Hey, folks, it is Monday, November third. It is election
Speaker 1: eve in five places, actually, but no matter where you are,
Speaker 1: if you're not in one of those five places, you
Speaker 1: damn sure better be paying attention to what happens tomorrow night.
Speaker 1: And with that, welcome to this election eve episode of
Speaker 1: Amy and TJ. Do you call it off year or
Speaker 1: odd year? Elections?
Speaker 2: Off year is what I've always called it, Yes, and yeah,
Speaker 2: we've got two big off yr elections right near to
Speaker 2: us in New York and New Jersey. And man, have
Speaker 2: we been inundated with political ads?
Speaker 1: I sometimes enjoy them, and they have been effective I
Speaker 1: think in this area. But yes, folks, it's it's hard
Speaker 1: is someone to get someone to think in Colorado or
Speaker 1: Texas or Detroit or wherever, why they need to care
Speaker 1: out who's elected mayor of New York or do they
Speaker 1: Is everyone paying as much attention as we think? We're
Speaker 1: inundated obviously because we're here, But even in news and
Speaker 1: news coverage, so much talk has been about this race.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's hard to separate us from the rest of
Speaker 2: the country in terms of our perspective, but this has
Speaker 2: obviously been a huge topic of conversation. The New York
Speaker 2: City mayor. In politics, Trump gets asked about it, and
Speaker 2: clearly there is going to be It would seem some
Speaker 2: sort of there will be ripple effects if Mom Donnie
Speaker 2: is elected, as most people believe he will be, in
Speaker 2: terms of how then the relationship. I mean, there is
Speaker 2: no relationship between Trump and Mom Donnie. But can that
Speaker 2: relationship be used in the Republican's favor? I know that
Speaker 2: sounds crazy, But now if you've got a common enemy,
Speaker 2: and you've got somebody who you can call a communist,
Speaker 2: so you can call not a terrorists. I don't think
Speaker 2: he's gone that far, but certainly called him a communist.
Speaker 2: Now you've got something and someone to rally against.
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, they've made clear that they don't necessarily mind,
Speaker 1: and he has spent so much. Trump a part of
Speaker 1: the brace here. But the five places, let's get to that.
Speaker 1: First of all, we have off year odd year elections.
Speaker 1: Why we do these states have their different reasons? I
Speaker 1: couldn't actually Robes come up with. I didn't realize it
Speaker 1: was only five.
Speaker 2: I didn't either, I did not. I know midterm elections
Speaker 2: are a big deal. Obviously, we know that every two
Speaker 2: years after the presidential election. You usually see a sea
Speaker 2: change in Congress. A lot of times people rail against
Speaker 2: the current administration, and whoever was in power, it switches.
Speaker 2: So those are big, I catching, headline grabbing elections. I
Speaker 2: didn't realize an off year election. We're talking five states.
Speaker 1: Just five on New Jersey, Virginia, Mississippi, Louisiana, Kentucky. Now
Speaker 1: New Jersey start doing this in nineteen forty seven. I
Speaker 1: can't remember which party it was, but the president was
Speaker 1: so popular that they said, hey, we don't want that
Speaker 1: influence coming into.
Speaker 2: Our probably the other party then, so yes.
Speaker 1: It was. So they said, let's separate it so we
Speaker 1: don't have any national influence on our state elections. That
Speaker 1: kind of makes sense.
Speaker 2: It makes total sense because most people go out to
Speaker 2: the polls in presidential elections, who wouldn't necessarily go out
Speaker 2: at a midtern and certainly not in an off your election.
Speaker 2: So that makes sense.
Speaker 1: That does make sense, and it's kind of expensive to
Speaker 1: separate the two, so to do so means you're really
Speaker 1: sticking to it and you believe it. I didn't necessarily
Speaker 1: mind that. Now the other states, what do you see
Speaker 1: about them that you think they have in common Louisiana, Kentucky, Virginia, Mississippi,
Speaker 1: louis the Southern states. There are Southern states. Now. There
Speaker 1: are several trains of thought as to why they do it,
Speaker 1: and some go back to voter suppression in the Jim
Speaker 1: Crow era.
Speaker 2: That also makes sense.
Speaker 1: Some of these states did not want federal control of
Speaker 1: their election and they wanted their power, and so they
Speaker 1: wanted to keep their separate so they didn't have to
Speaker 1: have federal monitors. And this is around times of the
Speaker 1: Voting Rights Act was just in its infancy and those things. Now,
Speaker 1: Mississippi did this outright. They were blatant about theirs. There's
Speaker 1: some questions about the other states. But some historians will
Speaker 1: tell you this had something to do with several of
Speaker 1: these states and why who. I did not know.
Speaker 2: That makes a lot of sense. I did not know that,
Speaker 2: but that actually does read. So it's I'm sure it's true,
Speaker 2: even though I know it's slightly conjecture. That makes sense.
Speaker 2: Now New York City mayor, I actually I get confused
Speaker 2: as to how many years, Like obviously the president it's
Speaker 2: every four years, Senators every six years, members of Congress
Speaker 2: every four years, correct, and then mayors different is two years.
Speaker 2: It's two years senators, senators, six congressmen and women, two
Speaker 2: governors four generally yes, generally all right. Presidents for mayors
Speaker 2: runs the gamut New York City mayor. It is tough
Speaker 2: to keep all the numbers together. But yes, we're up
Speaker 2: for New York City mayor. And this has been as
Speaker 2: contested as I can remember any race being. And we've
Speaker 2: lived here almost the same amount of time. I've been
Speaker 2: here for more than two decades. This has been an.
Speaker 1: Extreme It's been a mess, just really with Mayor Adams.
Speaker 1: I mean just with scandal controversy. He was indicted, all right,
Speaker 1: the case got dropped.
Speaker 2: So was our president.
Speaker 1: Oh and again he won it, he lost it. He's
Speaker 1: all kinds of stuff, you know. But what I'm saying
Speaker 1: is it's been a mess here, and the mess of
Speaker 1: Mayor Adams gave way to the rise of Mom Donnie.
Speaker 1: In this election. Cuomo is in there, and look, it
Speaker 1: would be history first Muslim mayor of New York. At
Speaker 1: this point if he were not to win, everybody would
Speaker 1: call this one into question, have some funny business, because
Speaker 1: he has been well ahead double digits. Doesn't even say
Speaker 1: it like well into double digits or his lead.
Speaker 2: He's been in double digits, and then when Eric Adams
Speaker 2: did drop out, that was tightened slightly. And really at
Speaker 2: this point, short of Curtis Sliwa, who is the third candidate,
Speaker 2: who's the Republican candidate, if he were to bout out,
Speaker 2: that would be the only reason why anybody I think
Speaker 2: would actually say this could be or it could go
Speaker 2: either way. Curtis Leiwa has been defiant. He is not.
Speaker 2: He even said if I got hit by a bus
Speaker 2: and died right now, my name would still be on
Speaker 2: the ballot. That's how defiant he's been. You know, he's
Speaker 2: a man who means what he says and says what
Speaker 2: he means.
Speaker 1: And there was something refreshing about him. But judging by
Speaker 1: all the polls, he does not have a chance to
Speaker 1: win this thing at all. So he hasn't dropped out
Speaker 1: given a support to Cuomo. So it looks like, Momdani,
Speaker 1: I mean, should be a cakewalk if you go buy
Speaker 1: the poll. So this is going to change what the city,
Speaker 1: the party is. It going to change the relationship with
Speaker 1: the White House.
Speaker 2: The impact of the New York City mayoral race is
Speaker 2: significant this year for all of those reasons you just said,
Speaker 2: because the Democrats are looking for a leader. And now
Speaker 2: Democrats have had to choose whether or not to align
Speaker 2: themselves with Cuomo or to align themselves with Mom Donnie.
Speaker 2: And we've seen make people make very different choices for
Speaker 2: very different reasons.
Speaker 1: They're going with the winner, with the front runner right now,
Speaker 1: and he has been well out ahead. But is this
Speaker 1: the direction, some would say, and some have said publicly yes.
Speaker 1: The idea of AOC Bernie Sanders and Mom Donnie standing
Speaker 1: on a stage holding hands together is exactly what every
Speaker 1: Republican wants to run against. There is no Democratic leader
Speaker 1: Newsom we were talking about earlier. He is. He is
Speaker 1: a a lot of peop will look at him, say
Speaker 1: he's the most visible Democrat right now, but he's not
Speaker 1: necessarily the leader of the party. So this city, the
Speaker 1: most important, the biggest city in the country, they just
Speaker 1: handed the keys over to this guy.
Speaker 2: It's interesting because I know you and I have been
Speaker 2: watching some of the coverage, even just with the volume down,
Speaker 2: the lines of people in New York City waiting to
Speaker 2: vote over the past couple of days. Early voting has
Speaker 2: been going on for a while. They say that so far.
Speaker 2: This is the latest thing from the New York Times.
Speaker 2: Seven hundred and thirty five thousand New Yorkers have voted early.
Speaker 2: That is four times as many as in the twenty
Speaker 2: twenty one contest. That just goes to show you and so, yes,
Speaker 2: this is an off election year. It's not tied to
Speaker 2: any big referendum and certainly not anything presidential beyond that.
Speaker 2: So that is truly remarkable that it's gotten to that
Speaker 2: point where people feel like they're livelihoods at stake. There
Speaker 2: have been a lot of promises made by mom Donnie
Speaker 2: that he's going to make this city affordable, but at
Speaker 2: the expensive people who make a lot of money, And
Speaker 2: so you have people who run Wall Street saying they're
Speaker 2: going to run for the hills if this guy gets
Speaker 2: elected in New York City. It's interesting to see what
Speaker 2: will happen, what the aftermath will be, if there will
Speaker 2: be a mass exodus of the rich leaving New York City.
Speaker 2: Will people change.
Speaker 1: Good riddance, get him out of here, and someone cares.
Speaker 2: But they need the tax dollars. That's the problem. That's
Speaker 2: the whole way he funds this and his agenda and
Speaker 2: his policy that he wants to put into place. You
Speaker 2: need the wealthy folks to foot the bill, so it'll
Speaker 2: be an interesting I mean, I'm fascinated by what's going
Speaker 2: to happen.
Speaker 1: What a night though. If we're about we're on the
Speaker 1: verge of electing the first Muslim mayor of New York City,
Speaker 1: that's incredible. That should be celebrated. I think that is awesome.
Speaker 1: This is not a policy thing. This is where the
Speaker 1: city is, where we are now. I'll be damned. I'll
Speaker 1: be damned. Don't even know what could possibly be next.
Speaker 1: But mister mom Donnie, can you please tell some of
Speaker 1: your crazy the fans to stop coming by our window
Speaker 1: in the boat yelling and screaming, yes, scaring the hell
Speaker 1: out of us.
Speaker 2: This happened? Was it yesterday? It was yesterday. It was
Speaker 2: kind of a nice day, so we had the windows open,
Speaker 2: and all of a sudden we heard screaming and shouting
Speaker 2: and like music, What is going on? We look out
Speaker 2: and it's a boat filled with Mom Donnie supporters having
Speaker 2: the time of their lives, racing down the Hudson screaming
Speaker 2: vote for Mom Donnie. They've never seen anything like that before.
Speaker 1: But he has a crazed bunch and they haven't seen
Speaker 1: anything like him before, doing TikTok videos whatever. He's reached
Speaker 1: them the way he's reached them. They this is their guy. Hey,
Speaker 1: it is fascinating to see what happens now across the river.
Speaker 1: It's been my favorite race when in terms of political ads,
Speaker 1: the race for governor of New Jersey, which is a
Speaker 1: race Jack Chitarelli and Mickey Cheryl.
Speaker 2: Yes, the Democrat statistically tied. Right.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's not supposed to be. She had an earlier lead,
Speaker 1: but this thing has gotten tight Titan as of late.
Speaker 1: And he has a habit of breaking late, does he not.
Speaker 2: Yes.
Speaker 1: In his last election he looked like he was out
Speaker 1: of it and closed the gap boom.
Speaker 2: And so this is his third time attempting to become
Speaker 2: New Jersey's governor. The first time he didn't get out
Speaker 2: of the Republican primary. I think he came in second,
Speaker 2: but he he has come close. And you of you
Speaker 2: have called some of the advertising that we've been watching effective.
Speaker 1: It has been. I mean, I don't know who did it,
Speaker 1: who needs to study it or whatever. I know it
Speaker 1: has been effective. In terms of me. I don't know
Speaker 1: anything about Mickey Cheryl but he has left an impression
Speaker 1: of her on me from one clip and one interview
Speaker 1: where she had a bad moment. And I know not
Speaker 1: to take this one moment and say that's who she is,
Speaker 1: but that's all I can see anything.
Speaker 2: They keep playing it over and over again.
Speaker 1: But it's it's only her in her own words. It's
Speaker 1: so effective.
Speaker 2: He's not mean, he's not slinging mud, he's not calling
Speaker 2: her names, he's not saying how terrible she's going to be.
Speaker 2: He just lets her, for lack of a better term,
Speaker 2: hang herself. Yeah, it with her own words.
Speaker 1: It's been effective. And of course we see and I
Speaker 1: don't know how many times a day, but it has
Speaker 1: been a fact. But the race has tightened. And this
Speaker 1: is a a left leaning state, of course, but kind
Speaker 1: of a purple governors mansion.
Speaker 2: It's true. Republicans have won five out of the last
Speaker 2: ten gubernatorial racest Chris Christy obviously probably the most recently
Speaker 2: most famous Republican from New Jersey outspoken. But Trump only
Speaker 2: lost New Jersey by six percent last year. That is remarkable,
Speaker 2: and he only lost it by sixteen percent in twenty twenty.
Speaker 2: So there is a strong Republican foothold in that state
Speaker 2: for sure.
Speaker 1: The other governor's race, keeping an eye on Virginia. This
Speaker 1: is history will be made no matter who.
Speaker 2: This is a really cool race. Representative Abigail Spanberger and
Speaker 2: Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earl Sears, two women vuying to become
Speaker 2: Virginia's first female governor. I think that's awesome. Also, I
Speaker 2: note that Lieutenant Governor wins Some Earl Sears is a
Speaker 2: republic is a Republican candidate, and she's black. So I
Speaker 2: thought that was really interesting to have those two choices.
Speaker 2: And certainly there will be first all around. In some
Speaker 2: former fashion, you.
Speaker 1: Were going through the line, you're kind of doing a
Speaker 1: deep dive in Virginia. But it was it was so
Speaker 1: much diverse, yes, and candidates.
Speaker 2: The lieutenant governor's race would be the it'd be the
Speaker 2: first openly gay man actually running against what would be
Speaker 2: the first Indian candidate to get lieutenant governor. And then
Speaker 2: the other race had another diversity. So I was like, wow,
Speaker 2: look at you New Jersey showing up doing some first Virginia.
Speaker 2: Oh my gosh, I said, New Jersey, Virginia. It's the
Speaker 2: end of a long day. Yes, Virginia but this is
Speaker 2: a state that has been a bill whether of presidential
Speaker 2: elections as well. It's been purple. Sometimes it leans blue,
Speaker 2: sometimes it leans red. Obviously, when you're in northern Virginia
Speaker 2: near DC, it's very very much blue. But this is
Speaker 2: a state that has gone in either direction, and so
Speaker 2: this will be an interesting one.
Speaker 1: They go the direction opposite the White House. I thought
Speaker 1: that was the greatest stat that eleven out of the
Speaker 1: past twelve governors of New Jersey belonged in Virginia.
Speaker 2: Because you said New Jersey too.
Speaker 1: There's only five states.
Speaker 2: Saying this because I did the same thing. I don't
Speaker 2: know why, but yes, Virginia has been It's a really
Speaker 2: remarkable streak.
Speaker 1: Yeah. Yeah, North Dakota is insane. Okay, we're a stick
Speaker 1: with Virginia. Point being here, whoever wins in Virginia has
Speaker 1: been from the opposite party of whoever is in the
Speaker 1: White House eleven out of the past twelve. So judging
Speaker 1: by that, the Democrat is going to win this and
Speaker 1: she is pretty hand Minnie the Poles.
Speaker 2: Yes, Representative Abigail Spanberger, she's ahead quite quite a bit, Yeah,
Speaker 2: quite a bit, So that one isn't as close. And
Speaker 2: then well, please continue my life.
Speaker 1: It's my fat I gave her a little signal that
Speaker 1: we were about to take a break, and she just
Speaker 1: she didn't want to keep rolling with it, so she
Speaker 1: just kind of stopped talking all together, which wasn't helpful either.
Speaker 1: But when we come back, we'll.
Speaker 2: Get to showing them how the sausage is made.
Speaker 1: And we come back, folks, why everybody's paying attention to
Speaker 1: what California is going to do tomorrow and what is
Speaker 1: happening in District eighteen in Texas the last two people
Speaker 1: who held that seat died. Stay here, welcome.
Speaker 2: Back as we continue our conversation on the big day tomorrow.
Speaker 2: Off your LuFe might not sound like that big of
Speaker 2: a deal, but some of these are going to have
Speaker 2: sweeping impact on the country, And notably we are looking
Speaker 2: at what's happening in California because what's happening in California
Speaker 2: has also been happening in a few other states around
Speaker 2: this country and literally will have an impact on the
Speaker 2: makeup of Congress. And we all, I think, have learned
Speaker 2: in recent years how important that actually is.
Speaker 1: Yeah, they set off California set off the redistricting race
Speaker 1: after Texas did what it did. Yeah, Governor Newsom got
Speaker 1: with the legislature out there and they passed legislation to
Speaker 1: change and redistrict to balance out what Texas did. Problem is,
Speaker 1: they have an independent commission out there in California. It's
Speaker 1: their job to actually redistrict, So they had to pass
Speaker 1: legislation to put it before the voters. So the voters
Speaker 1: in California tomorrow are going to vote whether or not
Speaker 1: they want to redistrict in California, and the poll show
Speaker 1: this is going to win fairly easily. Yeah.
Speaker 2: This is called Proposition fifty and this is about adding
Speaker 2: it would be five Democratic seats to the state of
Speaker 2: California to offset the five Republican seats that Texas was
Speaker 2: able to redistrict. And it's remarkable to know that they
Speaker 2: can just look at the demographics. They know exactly how
Speaker 2: to redraw the lines to get a higher percentage of
Speaker 2: whatever political affiliation you want based on where you live.
Speaker 2: It's kind of crazy.
Speaker 1: I don't know those split anymore because if they go
Speaker 1: tip for tag with Texas, Several other states have done this,
Speaker 1: and there was one state that was only really picking
Speaker 1: up one seat. But I don't even know who has
Speaker 1: an advantage necessarily, I've.
Speaker 2: Lost count to set. Yeah, but yes, so California that is,
Speaker 2: and that alone will bring folks out to the polls
Speaker 2: because this is of national significance.
Speaker 1: The other one here that will end on is you
Speaker 1: don't really pay attention to District eighteen in Texas. Nobody
Speaker 1: anywhere else who gives the damn about District eighteen. But
Speaker 1: if we explain it, this is the one where Sheila
Speaker 1: Jackson Lee spent so much time and everybody's familiar with her,
Speaker 1: but she passed away last year. But this is her
Speaker 1: seat for Robes, they have been without representation in four years,
Speaker 1: for essentially a year because their last two reps died.
Speaker 2: That's I mean, just so sad and unfortunate the timing
Speaker 2: of it, but just in general, I didn't realize that
Speaker 2: Shila Jackson Lee held that seat YEP for almost thirty years,
Speaker 2: twenty nine years. It was from nineteen ninety five to
Speaker 2: twenty twenty four. She died in March of twenty twenty four.
Speaker 2: She had that seat for twenty nine years, So they
Speaker 2: had so much stability in that district for so long.
Speaker 1: You know, no matter what you think about her politics,
Speaker 1: you have to give her credit for fighting for her state.
Speaker 1: She was always reprisen in Texas and up in Houston.
Speaker 1: Give her credit for that, God rest of saw. But yeah,
Speaker 1: she passed in March of twenty twenty four, left the
Speaker 1: seat open.
Speaker 2: You don't know a lot of congressmen and women's names,
Speaker 2: like we know a lot of Senators because they're two
Speaker 2: from each date and so you get to know them,
Speaker 2: and they tend to just be more prominent, right in
Speaker 2: the sense they're there for six years, so you you
Speaker 2: know who they are. You don't often know the names
Speaker 2: of congressmen and women unless they're leaders, unless they're like
Speaker 2: majority with or minority whatever. So it's interesting that you
Speaker 2: know her name or you remembered her name because she
Speaker 2: was such a president, such a force for so long.
Speaker 1: That's a good point. Most members of Congress are not
Speaker 1: household name. Yes, Sheila Jackson Lane absolutely was.
Speaker 2: Yes, And yes so Vester Turner. He he died in
Speaker 2: March of this year.
Speaker 1: He was a Houston mayor.
Speaker 2: But but it was just after.
Speaker 1: Speech, the speech from twenty four. It wasn't the State
Speaker 1: of the Union, it was he addressed both he had
Speaker 1: just Congress, Yes, after Trump. It was that night that
Speaker 1: was so freaky.
Speaker 2: That was so free Here is so sixteen candidates are
Speaker 2: on the ballot. Clearly no one is going to get
Speaker 2: the majority with that many candidates.
Speaker 1: So that means they're going to still be without representation
Speaker 1: until I believe it's January of next year when they
Speaker 1: have a special election. Just timing wise, that's it. But
Speaker 1: that district to have so much stability and then have
Speaker 1: back to back and he was a long time sevest return,
Speaker 1: a long time mayor of Houston, just was known so well.
Speaker 2: Everyone knew his name, everyone knew who he was. And
Speaker 2: so when you have sixteen unknowns, basically ain't one of
Speaker 2: them going to get fifty one percent?
Speaker 1: Not even close run off and they will once again,
Speaker 1: it will be almost two years. I mean semester Turney
Speaker 1: was there, but only barely a month or so before
Speaker 1: he passed, so they really haven't had representation in nearly
Speaker 1: two years.
Speaker 2: It'll ultimately be I don't want to put you on
Speaker 2: the spot, but I was curious, do you know basically
Speaker 2: the run off do they pick the top three candidates?
Speaker 2: How do they top two candidates? That's I actually just
Speaker 2: looked it up and answered my own question.
Speaker 1: Well, anybody got fifty one to be over, but I
Speaker 1: don't think they have a stand out that they expect
Speaker 1: for that. But yeah, folks, that's just a preview, I know. Uh. Look,
Speaker 1: there's a lot on TV and people talking about a
Speaker 1: lot of these races, but they're interesting for different reasons.
Speaker 1: They have little nuggets there we thought were interesting. But
Speaker 1: it's still worth paying attention to.
Speaker 2: It, I think so. And I think a lot of
Speaker 2: times we cast off or we don't give local elections
Speaker 2: the credit they deserve. But truly and so often what
Speaker 2: you do, the taxes you pay, the facilities you have,
Speaker 2: the school system you send your children to, is often
Speaker 2: determined by local officials. And so yes, we don't usually
Speaker 2: have as high of a turnout on some of these
Speaker 2: off year elections, but man, are they important very much.
Speaker 1: So so I was no, no, as you said that, I was.
Speaker 1: I made a face because I was trying to think
Speaker 1: of where our posing station was.
Speaker 2: That's what I have to look it up DMV, Right,
Speaker 2: they tell you where to go. I'm pretty sure that's
Speaker 2: what we just moved. So that's why we're a little confused.
Speaker 2: We should probably know before now that we should probably
Speaker 2: figure it out.
Speaker 1: All right, folks, we always appreciate you hanging with us.
Speaker 1: For now, I'm TJ. Holmes, just on behalf of Amy Roebuck.
Speaker 1: Talk to y'all soon.