WEBVTT - FBB's Bailey Likes Consumer Staples, Looking at Tobacco (Audio)

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<v Speaker 1>Global business news twenty four hours a day at Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>dot com, the radio plus mobile lap and on your radio.

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<v Speaker 1>This is a Bloomberg Business flag from Bloomberg World Handquarters.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm Charlie Pelotadal. The SMP nezdak all declining thirteen minutes

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<v Speaker 1>to go ahead of the closing bell stocks tumbling from

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<v Speaker 1>the biggest gain in two months, Disappointing numbers out of

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<v Speaker 1>Disney and Macy's raising downs about the strength of the

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<v Speaker 1>US consumer. We get retail sales numbers Friday morning today,

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<v Speaker 1>Macy's punging fifteen percent, Disney down four point three percent.

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<v Speaker 1>Here's where we stand, a two hundred point loss now

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<v Speaker 1>for the down Jones Industrial Average at seventeen thousand, seven

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<v Speaker 1>hundred twenty eight, down one one percent, SMP five hundred

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<v Speaker 1>index down seventeen, a drop of eight tents of one percent.

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<v Speaker 1>Has stacked down forty two points, a drop of nine

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<v Speaker 1>tenths of one percent. Gold up fourteen ten, the ounce

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<v Speaker 1>to twelve seventy eight, a gain of one point one percent.

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<v Speaker 1>Crude picking up three point two percent and hired by

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<v Speaker 1>a dollar forty three a barrel O nine. I'm Charlie

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<v Speaker 1>Pellett and that's sub Bloomberg Business Flash. Charlie Pellett, thank

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<v Speaker 1>you so very much. Time now for the e t

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<v Speaker 1>F Report, brought to you by Van Eck Vector's e

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<v Speaker 1>t F Expect more from your muni's target tax exempt

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<v Speaker 1>income by maturity and credit quality, all with low cost

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<v Speaker 1>e t F s. Visit van eck dot com slash

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<v Speaker 1>Muni van Eck Access the Opportunities for e t F

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<v Speaker 1>report returned to Catherine cadreye As A search for investments

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<v Speaker 1>with high yields continues Double line Capitals. Jeoffrey Gundlach is

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<v Speaker 1>recommending mortgage real estate investment trusts in their e t

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<v Speaker 1>F form At a conference last week. Unlock called buying

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<v Speaker 1>mortgage read e t F s a no brainer. Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>intelligence analyist Eric do Tunis sounds a cautionary note. Keep

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<v Speaker 1>in mind this is not your grandfather's read. These aren't

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<v Speaker 1>companies that hold real estate and properties and physical properties. Instead,

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<v Speaker 1>says bell Tunis, these are financial firms that land out

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<v Speaker 1>at short term rates and then buy mortgage securities at

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<v Speaker 1>the long term rates, so they make money on the

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<v Speaker 1>spread between the two rates. The biggest has a twelve

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<v Speaker 1>month dividend yield of ten point nine But there's a

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<v Speaker 1>caveat Mortgage reads are sensitive to interest rates, especially an

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<v Speaker 1>increase in short term rates. So if that goes up

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<v Speaker 1>and the FED raises rates, this thing always gets killed

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<v Speaker 1>when the Fed sounds like they're going to raise rates.

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<v Speaker 1>So this is you know, this is a difficult thing

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<v Speaker 1>to maneuver around the Fed. You got to be very careful.

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<v Speaker 1>The biggest the I shares, MORTGAD real Estate CAT ETF,

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<v Speaker 1>has total assets of nine one million dollars. That's your

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg ETF report. I'm Catherine Cowlery. This is taking stock

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<v Speaker 1>with Kathleen Hayes and Pim Fox on Bloomberg Radio. So

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<v Speaker 1>far this year, the sm P five hundred has produced

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<v Speaker 1>a return of one point two percent. The dividend yield

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<v Speaker 1>is two point two percent. Here to help us make

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<v Speaker 1>sense of this and what to do with our money,

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<v Speaker 1>is Mike Bailey, Director Research at F b B Capital Partners,

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<v Speaker 1>helping to manage eight hundred and fifty million dollars. Joining

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<v Speaker 1>us from Washington, d C. Home to Bloomberg one and

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<v Speaker 1>one oh five point seven h D two F M.

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<v Speaker 1>Mike Bailey, give us your strategy your thesis right now

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<v Speaker 1>for investments, given uh, the paltry returns that people can

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<v Speaker 1>expect by investing in bonds, but also it seems the

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<v Speaker 1>performance of the stock market this year. Absolutely and thanks

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<v Speaker 1>to Pam and Kathleen for having me back on. So yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>in terms of taking a look at the markets and

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<v Speaker 1>kind of what would we expect for perhaps the remainder

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<v Speaker 1>of the year, I would think it's going to be

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<v Speaker 1>you know, kind of load of mid single digit returns.

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<v Speaker 1>That's kind of what we've seen year to date, although

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<v Speaker 1>it's certainly been a bit of a roller coaster. But

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<v Speaker 1>you know, we look at if you sort of strip

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<v Speaker 1>out energy and some some parts of the market that

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<v Speaker 1>have happened they're having a tough time. Uh, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>I think just look at earnings growth. Then you know,

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<v Speaker 1>you call it mid single digit. You've got some companies

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<v Speaker 1>with some nice dividend yields that gets you kind of

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<v Speaker 1>mid to high single digit it um. I think that's

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<v Speaker 1>that's a fairly reasonable sort of yardstick in terms of

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<v Speaker 1>what to expect for for the full year. So might

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<v Speaker 1>might not be too exciting for the last last a

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<v Speaker 1>few months, but I think, you know, we may end

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<v Speaker 1>a year sort of look back at maybe a five

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<v Speaker 1>seven percent return for the full year, which was roughly

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<v Speaker 1>in line with what you've seen historically. Let's check some

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<v Speaker 1>factors off the list, and of course I'll start with

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<v Speaker 1>the FED, because I'm such a Fed nerd Is it

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<v Speaker 1>kind of asymmetric at this point? If the Fed doesn't

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<v Speaker 1>raise rates until the end of the year, if at all,

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<v Speaker 1>does that not help stocks much because it's kind of

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<v Speaker 1>priced in right now and people are doubting the federal move.

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<v Speaker 1>Whereas the Feds surprises all the people who don't think

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<v Speaker 1>they're going to move in June and does raise the

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<v Speaker 1>key rate again, would that be detrimental to stocks great point?

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<v Speaker 1>You know, I think, you know, you could argue that

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<v Speaker 1>that's kind of a you're looking at probabilities to think

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<v Speaker 1>investors right now are thinking there's a very low probability

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<v Speaker 1>of a rate hike UM, and say if that does happen,

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<v Speaker 1>I think there's a there's some validity there. So especially

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<v Speaker 1>if you get you know, two or maybe three hikes UM,

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<v Speaker 1>certainly I think that that would keep a lid on stocks.

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<v Speaker 1>But I think at this point, just looking at at

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<v Speaker 1>the data it's been coming out my my sense. I

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<v Speaker 1>guess I tend to go along with with some of

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<v Speaker 1>those other broader views that were like unlikely to see

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<v Speaker 1>a hike for a while. I think, you know, as

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<v Speaker 1>we get into election season, although they said that tries

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<v Speaker 1>to be separate from from politics and such, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>we may see them pushed until after the election. Perhaps

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<v Speaker 1>you'll see a ray hike in November or December. And

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<v Speaker 1>I think even with that kind of upside and downside

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<v Speaker 1>sort of scenarios we're talking about, I think there's still

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<v Speaker 1>room for equities to move up another three or four

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<v Speaker 1>in the back half the year. Well, equities have moved

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<v Speaker 1>up what about twelve thirteen percent since that drop that

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<v Speaker 1>took place I guess the middle of February. Can you

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<v Speaker 1>explain what you would be putting the money into now

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<v Speaker 1>if you believe, first of all, that the market is

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<v Speaker 1>going to continue to perform as it has at least

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<v Speaker 1>since the end of February. Certainly so, our our client

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<v Speaker 1>base is a little bit more on the lower end

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<v Speaker 1>of the risk return a curve, so uh, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>with that kind of in mind, we typically would look

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<v Speaker 1>a little bit more towards some of the defensives, although

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<v Speaker 1>you know, when I say defensive, we've got some kind

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<v Speaker 1>of more aggressive picks within that that sort of theme. So,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, in general, healthcare is the name that that

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<v Speaker 1>we like, although within that we've certainly got some high

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<v Speaker 1>growth of biotech. We've got you know, HMOs for example,

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<v Speaker 1>that those are pretty interesting. United Health has done well.

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<v Speaker 1>We think that that continues. UH. And there's some others

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<v Speaker 1>in there, for example, even a Shire, which is a

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<v Speaker 1>company that's a fairly high growth and certainly has moved

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<v Speaker 1>around a bit, but I think that one's got some

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<v Speaker 1>acquisitions that could drive it. UH. Some other areas that

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<v Speaker 1>we're looking at utilities and certainly one of the UH

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<v Speaker 1>more kind of slow moving sectors traditionally, although it's had

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<v Speaker 1>a great run. We still like utilities for the back

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<v Speaker 1>half of the year, although we're trimming a bit following

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<v Speaker 1>the out performance we've seen here to date. UH. And

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<v Speaker 1>then another couple of areas again we're looking at the

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<v Speaker 1>consumer space UM. Despite kind of the carnage we've seen today,

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<v Speaker 1>I think more in the consumer discretionary side, we're a

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<v Speaker 1>little more interested in this apples a business, so m

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<v Speaker 1>you know, we like you know, sort of if you

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<v Speaker 1>want to call it the baby large caps Clorox and

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<v Speaker 1>Church and Dwight for example, those those look pretty interesting. Um.

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<v Speaker 1>Even tobacco names, uh look look pretty interesting, especially yield.

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<v Speaker 1>Can I ask you about tech stocks textings with long

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<v Speaker 1>growth tails? Absolutely so one of the areas that I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>I sort of started out with some more of the

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<v Speaker 1>defensive sides, but in tech we're still a bit sort

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<v Speaker 1>of below weight in tech, we're looking to add some things.

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<v Speaker 1>One of the areas we're looking at is cybersecurity, and

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<v Speaker 1>that that's certainly all over the news, but our senses

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<v Speaker 1>looking at some of the companies that are growing a

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<v Speaker 1>little more quickly, and I think basically looking at market penetration.

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<v Speaker 1>One of the names that we've looked at is pala

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<v Speaker 1>Alto Networks. UM. Certainly uh, pretty high growth company. But

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<v Speaker 1>basically they they've given some interesting clues um for example,

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<v Speaker 1>a recent investor meeting and if you sort of triangulate

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<v Speaker 1>what they're talking about. UM, as long as people keep

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<v Speaker 1>spending money on cybersecurity, which in our minds is kind

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<v Speaker 1>of just attacks on business these days. Uh, and a

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<v Speaker 1>company like a pile out the networks continue to gain share,

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<v Speaker 1>I think it looks pretty interesting, and you do have

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<v Speaker 1>to go out a few years, but as long as

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<v Speaker 1>they keep tracking towards the market share goals, companies like

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<v Speaker 1>that looks pretty compelling. I mean you could put certainly

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<v Speaker 1>five even ten years of a sort of long growth

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<v Speaker 1>tail on a business like that. Mike, what is some

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<v Speaker 1>of the common questions that you're being asked by your

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<v Speaker 1>customer base? Yeah, I think one of the bigger ones

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<v Speaker 1>is just valuations. So you know, we take a look

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<v Speaker 1>at the SMP for example, I think on on our

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<v Speaker 1>metrics of training about eighteen times earnings, that's basically the

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<v Speaker 1>recent high. So if you go back, you know, a

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<v Speaker 1>year or two, that's that's kind of where we are.

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<v Speaker 1>And the question is, you know, where do we go

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<v Speaker 1>from here? Um So I certainly would agree that that

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<v Speaker 1>I think I mentioned earlier keeps a bit of a

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<v Speaker 1>lid on on equities. UM I think we're unlikely to

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<v Speaker 1>see a repeat of kind of the glory days of

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<v Speaker 1>twenty twelve, thirteen or fourteen, but I think you're likely

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<v Speaker 1>see a bit more out performance here. You know, again,

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<v Speaker 1>just very nice sort of beating and raising by a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of companies. You've got some nice growing dividend deal

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<v Speaker 1>and that type of thing. Uh, And I think that

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<v Speaker 1>can keep you know, multiples of continuing a bit higher.

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<v Speaker 1>The flip side here, we haven't quite talked about bonds yet,

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<v Speaker 1>but really, you know, if you're looking to get some

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<v Speaker 1>fairly stable returns, and bond yields are really just almost

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<v Speaker 1>you know, essentially negligible, you can look at some high

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<v Speaker 1>qualities equities and get some very nice dividendnields there. And

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<v Speaker 1>I think investors may see flow funds continuing into equities

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<v Speaker 1>that can drive theres a bit higher. Even some bond

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<v Speaker 1>guys say that big dividend payers are the new the

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<v Speaker 1>new bonds, right, So speaking a little yields though, do

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<v Speaker 1>you see broadly are you strictly um sticking to a

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<v Speaker 1>US centric strategy, any opportunities you consider overseas? Yeah, I

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<v Speaker 1>think in general we are askewed a bit more to

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<v Speaker 1>the US and developed markets, but that we're certainly keeping

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<v Speaker 1>our eyes wide open, uh, you know, to two opportunities outside.

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<v Speaker 1>I think certainly other developed areas. Europe. A lot of

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<v Speaker 1>folks are are pointing there. We own a few individual

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<v Speaker 1>equities based in Europe, so I think we've got a

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<v Speaker 1>bit of a toe hold. They're still a little a

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<v Speaker 1>little bit of concern. Yeah, I think, um, you're just

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of issues there. Demographics, you've got immigration, you've

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<v Speaker 1>got currency maybe going against Europe this year as opposed

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<v Speaker 1>to being a tail win last year. So some concerns

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<v Speaker 1>in Europe. Um other areas, China certainly lots of volatility there.

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<v Speaker 1>We're still a bit cautious on China. We we tremmed

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<v Speaker 1>our positions last year where we're not quite ready to

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<v Speaker 1>jump back in the water at this point. But do

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<v Speaker 1>you want to be wide open. You know, it could

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<v Speaker 1>be some opportunities and it could be some areas to

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<v Speaker 1>take a look at. But I think what we're still

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<v Speaker 1>a bit more cautious at this point. All right, Mike Bailey,

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<v Speaker 1>thank you so very much for joining us today. He is,

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<v Speaker 1>of course, director of Research and see f A at

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<v Speaker 1>f BB Capital Partners uh EITHER in fifty million dollars

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<v Speaker 1>of assets under management, located in the nation's capital, Washington,

0:10:50.400 --> 0:10:54.320
<v Speaker 1>d C, home of Bloomberg One. What has certainly been

0:10:54.360 --> 0:10:57.720
<v Speaker 1>an interesting day in the stock market. Almost every retailer

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<v Speaker 1>in the country getting pounded, except up for the giant

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<v Speaker 1>online retailer whose name you know so well. Dave Wilson

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<v Speaker 1>way back, our stocks editor to look at movers and shakers.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm caffeine Haze, along with Pim Fox taking stock on

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Radio