Speaker 1: Global business news twenty four hours a day. That's Bloomberg
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Speaker 1: this is a Bloomberg Business Flash and I'm Karen Moscow.
Speaker 1: Futures are higher. Let's go to the First Word Breaking
Speaker 1: news desk for today's morning call. Here's Bill Maloney. Good
Speaker 1: morning Bill, Good morning Karen. U s Futures have added
Speaker 1: to their games since the last time we spoke down.
Speaker 1: Futures currently hired by a thirty six point scipes game
Speaker 1: four and as a Futures rise by fifteen US ten
Speaker 1: yield at one point eight three percent. Main up of
Speaker 1: markets except Italy are trading higher. Germany gains one percent,
Speaker 1: while in South America Brazil jumps three percent. On the
Speaker 1: US Economic Friday thirty job numbers changing on from Peril's
Speaker 1: estimate a hundred ninety five thousand and after develops night,
Speaker 1: HP Enterprise EPs beat Broadcom, Fuchre Remnview was in line,
Speaker 1: and Smith and Wesson boost the ups and revenue views.
Speaker 1: In deal news, Sampson is buying too Mey for sv
Speaker 1: to share at AMC Theaters, to buy Carmikey Cinemas for
Speaker 1: thirty hours to share. Finally, semi Key Walsheet upgrades and
Speaker 1: downgrades brought Informant cut the neutral over at Bank of America,
Speaker 1: Hewitt Packard Enterprise raised out perform at Bernstein h R,
Speaker 1: cut to market perform at BMO. Barkley's cut the whole
Speaker 1: versus by a Deutsche Bank. J Z Penny raised to
Speaker 1: buy it, Evercore I s I Qualcom cut to perform
Speaker 1: at Oppenheimer, and finally Godman Sachs, Excel Group cut to
Speaker 1: neutral and monts Santo cut to sell. Live in the
Speaker 1: first breaking news desk, go on, Bill Maloney care alright,
Speaker 1: thanks Villa to hear live breaking news over your Bloomberg
Speaker 1: type squawk and go on your terminal. That's su you
Speaker 1: a w k go, that's a Bloomberg business flash, Tom
Speaker 1: and Mike, Karen, and thanks so much. Since Job's Day,
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Surveillance bronch you by Investco, Investco believes it's time
Speaker 1: to bench the benchmarks and to consider active management and
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Speaker 1: high conviction. We moved to Job's Day. First of all,
Speaker 1: I do want to mention the series of headlines out
Speaker 1: of Brazil are simply stunning. We're not gonna dwell on
Speaker 1: this a lot hereay, but markets explode higher. Petro bruss
Speaker 1: rises eighteen percent. Is president Lula Mike? Is it unfair
Speaker 1: to say under house arrest? Uh, It's hard to know
Speaker 1: his exact status. He has been detained by the police
Speaker 1: for questioning. They took him to the airport for security reasons.
Speaker 1: So question it isn't exactly care what he is doing
Speaker 1: or status. Brazilian real is stronger. We've had a wonderful
Speaker 1: morning looking at our economic history, the broader themes Mickey,
Speaker 1: Levia Baringer capital markets with us. Mickey, let's fold into
Speaker 1: this immediate jobs report that we see in exactly ten minutes.
Speaker 1: It's about productivity, capital, labor, and technological progress. Give us
Speaker 1: the y. We're flat on our back with productivity. I
Speaker 1: think part of it is a missmeasurement problem. I see
Speaker 1: everywhere anecdotal evidence of technological innovations, not only new products,
Speaker 1: but but but but improved production facilities and capabilities. I
Speaker 1: see record breaking near record breaking corporate profits, and then
Speaker 1: the productivity data are so weak. I think there's a
Speaker 1: mismeasurement problem that the US Department of Commerce will eventually
Speaker 1: get to. But it's a very technical issue. Let me
Speaker 1: just bring out an example, um, all of you who
Speaker 1: are looking at your iPhones now, UM, when you buy
Speaker 1: an iPhone because because it's because it's produced in China,
Speaker 1: it nets out to close to zero in GDP. Are
Speaker 1: you telling me that over the last seven eight years
Speaker 1: this has had zero impact? Mr mckeeney, the sainted one
Speaker 1: needed a new iPhone yesterday. It did not. It directly
Speaker 1: affected the GDP of American economy. I can assure you
Speaker 1: I did my patriotic duty and dropped a large amount
Speaker 1: of money on an iPhone, but it netted out to
Speaker 1: close to zero in GDP and did not push the
Speaker 1: productivity dial as measured. And I think there's a measurement problem.
Speaker 1: And it's not just Apple, it's just almost in every industry.
Speaker 1: You see technological advances and it's just we're just not
Speaker 1: capturing it in the data. What do we uh, what
Speaker 1: do you think February is going to show? You have
Speaker 1: to follow a day to day basis and with a
Speaker 1: with a disclaimer that of course one month is not
Speaker 1: enough to uh, you know, really get a trend. But
Speaker 1: what do we think? I think it's gonna be a
Speaker 1: healthy number UM. In fact, it could be. I think
Speaker 1: it's gonna be a little over two hundred thousand. On jobs,
Speaker 1: I think actually job gains have been a little too
Speaker 1: fast relative to g d P. But what I'm really
Speaker 1: looking at for in today's number is in January we
Speaker 1: had a nice increase in wages. If there's an a
Speaker 1: second month in a row of healthy wage gains UM
Speaker 1: on top of the recent nice news on consumer spending
Speaker 1: in real terms and the increase in the core PCE
Speaker 1: deflated to one point seven, I'm wondering if we get
Speaker 1: that that wage increase, it's not only very good for
Speaker 1: the economy, but it really puts the FED into a box.
Speaker 1: Are they really data dependent? We're on the front doorstep
Speaker 1: of them achieving their long run dual mandate. What will
Speaker 1: they do well? What will be the effect if they
Speaker 1: do raise rights? Why the what? What is the I
Speaker 1: S curve real economy effect? Not to get the restrictive,
Speaker 1: not to get to accommodative, but to get off stand
Speaker 1: Fisher's ultra accommodative. Given the data, theoretically and historically, it
Speaker 1: should have close to zero impact on economic performance. The
Speaker 1: FEDS can sarn is um having gone through several queuei's
Speaker 1: forward guidance. All of that was geared toward UH keeping
Speaker 1: rates low, encouraging portfolio managers globally to take more risks.
Speaker 1: And now one of the FED, one of the fed's
Speaker 1: largest concerns is the reversal of that portfolio balance effect
Speaker 1: that they so touted for several years. Mickey Levis, thank
Speaker 1: you so much, Dr Leavis with Barrenberg Capital Markets. As
Speaker 1: we get ready for h the jobs report will see
Speaker 1: that here in six minutes, so we should note a
Speaker 1: thousand jobs forecast, four point nine percent unemployment, and a
Speaker 1: two tense gaining wages. Those are the headline numbers will
Speaker 1: be watching. I will look at the revisions and he
Speaker 1: grew always important, Robert Gordon said, he is, uh. He
Speaker 1: is going to be looking at the labor force participation rate.
Speaker 1: He said, that's the key number for the economy going forward.
Speaker 1: It's gotten better prospects for the economy. Of course, he's
Speaker 1: looking at it from the academic tower of Northwestern University.
Speaker 1: They where market economists are trying to figure out what
Speaker 1: the tenure yield will do to four digits UH at
Speaker 1: eight thirty two. We will do that with Bill gross
Speaker 1: one eight to eight six one on the tenure yield
Speaker 1: right now. Curve flattening over the last couple of days.
Speaker 1: Don't want to make too much about it. It's been
Speaker 1: range bound, as is a lot of other data. The
Speaker 1: dollar fractionally weaker after a few good days up its
Speaker 1: warning and Michael McKee mentioned gold elevated here an hour ago,
Speaker 1: twelve sixty one the ounce right now, Michael McKee and
Speaker 1: Tom Keane, please stay with us for this job's report
Speaker 1: in five minutes, the report on the American labor economy.
Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg's surveillance coming up. With all due respect.
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