WEBVTT - Bills By The Numbers: Favorable Matchup For The Bills? 0:00:00.400 --> 0:00:03.600 Welcome to a playoff edition of Bills by the Numbers, 0:00:03.600 --> 0:00:05.280 where we let the stats tell you where the Bills 0:00:05.280 --> 0:00:07.200 are at. We're presented by a fan du will make 0:00:07.320 --> 0:00:11.400 every moment more as we dive into this wild card matchup. 0:00:12.039 --> 0:00:13.520 What are the defining. 0:00:13.119 --> 0:00:17.440 Separators in Bills versus Jaguars? What do the quarterback numbers 0:00:17.480 --> 0:00:20.760 tell us? And we'll have our one burning question. 0:00:21.040 --> 0:00:22.360 It's playoff time. 0:00:23.079 --> 0:00:37.959 Let's ride logic it, stop by and see us here 0:00:37.960 --> 0:00:38.880 on Bill by the Numbers. 0:00:38.920 --> 0:00:41.080 Here Bill Ball of Famer Seves Chasser on Bill play 0:00:41.080 --> 0:00:44.440 by play man Chris Brown, and Buffalo has qualified for 0:00:44.520 --> 0:00:49.200 the playoffs for a seventh straight season, the only team 0:00:49.240 --> 0:00:51.280 to do so in the NFL over that stretch, but 0:00:51.320 --> 0:00:54.800 for the first time in six seasons, they will begin 0:00:54.880 --> 0:00:58.240 their playoff run on the road. The last time they 0:00:58.240 --> 0:01:02.440 did that was also against an AFC South opponent, the 0:01:02.480 --> 0:01:05.440 Houston Texans, where a sixteen to eight lead at the 0:01:05.480 --> 0:01:09.000 end of the third quarter disappeared and wound up being 0:01:09.040 --> 0:01:12.120 a twenty two to nineteen loss in overtime to end 0:01:12.160 --> 0:01:16.400 their season. This time around, it's a surging Jacksonville team 0:01:16.760 --> 0:01:19.920 that has won eight straight to finish their season with 0:01:20.000 --> 0:01:22.800 a signature win on the road at Denver, the AFC's 0:01:22.880 --> 0:01:27.039 top seed in Week sixteen, thirty four to twenty two. 0:01:27.120 --> 0:01:28.639 Things the Jaguars do. 0:01:28.720 --> 0:01:32.640 Exceptionally well stop the run, where they are first in 0:01:32.680 --> 0:01:34.920 the league allowing just eighty five yards on the ground 0:01:34.959 --> 0:01:38.280 per game, and taking the ball away. They are second 0:01:38.319 --> 0:01:43.320 in the league in total takeaways with thirty one. Not 0:01:43.440 --> 0:01:45.920 that the Bills had a choice, but do you think 0:01:46.000 --> 0:01:50.440 the Jaguars are a favorable matchup for Buffalo in light 0:01:50.480 --> 0:01:51.520 of those figures? Now? 0:01:51.560 --> 0:01:53.960 I think I think they're a tough matchup. In fact, 0:01:54.200 --> 0:01:55.880 we've talked about it on the Daily Show. This may 0:01:55.920 --> 0:02:01.400 be the toughest game of the playoffs for the Bills. 0:02:02.160 --> 0:02:04.880 This matchup is tough. Now, that doesn't mean there's not 0:02:04.960 --> 0:02:08.760 good teams and the Patriots or the Broncos, or the 0:02:08.800 --> 0:02:10.760 Texans or anybody else. They are a good team and 0:02:10.800 --> 0:02:13.240 have the ability to beat the Bills. I mean, any 0:02:13.240 --> 0:02:16.600 of these teams could win these games. But as a matchup, 0:02:17.400 --> 0:02:20.840 the Jaguars are coming into the playoffs on a heater. 0:02:21.880 --> 0:02:25.480 They've got a really good quarterback, and that's the spot 0:02:25.520 --> 0:02:29.080 where you begin all of these matchups. Certainly, Josh matches 0:02:29.160 --> 0:02:32.799 up with anybody but Trevor Lawrence. Even if you put 0:02:32.880 --> 0:02:36.320 Josh's better quarterback, the gap is not as wide as 0:02:36.320 --> 0:02:39.320 it is for the other guys. And their defense is 0:02:39.320 --> 0:02:43.240 playing extremely well, as you said, and their ability to 0:02:43.240 --> 0:02:45.680 get turnovers. I mean, the Bills benefited from that last year, 0:02:45.720 --> 0:02:47.360 got them all the way to the AFC Championship Game. 0:02:47.400 --> 0:02:50.200 So that's a trait. Yeah, and it seems like it 0:02:50.240 --> 0:02:52.760 goes season by season. Certainly it doesn't have to go, 0:02:53.160 --> 0:02:55.280 but if you're in a season where you're turning them out, 0:02:55.600 --> 0:02:57.840 you kind of count on it and it kind of 0:02:57.840 --> 0:03:02.240 comes to be a characteristic than this random number. So yeah, 0:03:02.680 --> 0:03:04.600 this is a tough matchup for the Bills, no question 0:03:04.600 --> 0:03:04.960 about it. 0:03:05.040 --> 0:03:08.400 Yeah, And I think they're running into a team that 0:03:08.520 --> 0:03:10.000 is brimming with confidence. 0:03:10.520 --> 0:03:11.960 They're going to be in their own building. 0:03:12.720 --> 0:03:17.240 So somehow, some way, the Bills have to squash that 0:03:17.960 --> 0:03:21.919 and put some doubt in the minds of the Jaguars 0:03:22.280 --> 0:03:26.480 early on, preferably, because if you let them get out 0:03:26.480 --> 0:03:30.280 in front and continue on the role that they've been 0:03:30.320 --> 0:03:34.280 on the last two months, that will spell problems that'll 0:03:34.280 --> 0:03:37.760 be a difficult thing to overcome. So I think, you know, 0:03:37.840 --> 0:03:40.400 putting some doubt in the minds of the Jaguars Early 0:03:41.120 --> 0:03:44.600 will serve the Bills very well through the course of 0:03:44.640 --> 0:03:48.680 that football game. Taking a look at the quarterback statistics 0:03:48.800 --> 0:03:52.040 on Josh Allen and Trevor Lawrence, we find that Allen 0:03:52.280 --> 0:03:56.960 is superior in completion percentage by almost ten percent, sixty 0:03:57.040 --> 0:04:00.840 nine point three to Lawrence's sixty one. Lawrence threw more 0:04:00.920 --> 0:04:04.760 touchdown passes twenty nine to Allen's twenty five, but Allen 0:04:04.840 --> 0:04:08.640 has one more total touchdown with thirty nine to Lawrence's 0:04:08.680 --> 0:04:09.200 thirty eight. 0:04:09.520 --> 0:04:11.400 Where you see a bit more. 0:04:11.240 --> 0:04:13.960 Of a difference between the two quarterbacks is on the 0:04:14.000 --> 0:04:18.000 money down and in crunch time. On third down, Josh 0:04:18.080 --> 0:04:22.480 Allen has a sixty seven percent completion percentage to Lawrence's 0:04:23.000 --> 0:04:27.760 fifty seven percent, and Lawrence has five interceptions on third 0:04:27.800 --> 0:04:31.080 down this season while Allen has three. As a result, 0:04:31.360 --> 0:04:34.520 Allen's passer rating is twelve points higher on third down, 0:04:35.080 --> 0:04:38.400 ninety six point eight to eighty four point five, and 0:04:38.520 --> 0:04:41.880 in the fourth quarter, Allen is the third best quarterback 0:04:41.920 --> 0:04:44.400 in the league with a one to ten point eight rating. 0:04:44.480 --> 0:04:49.120 Buffalo signal caller seventy percent completion percentage in the final 0:04:49.160 --> 0:04:52.880 frame with eight touchdowns and two picks. He also averages 0:04:52.920 --> 0:04:56.280 almost nine yards in attempt in the fourth quarter. Lawrence 0:04:56.880 --> 0:04:59.960 is the thirty eighth rated quarterback in the fourth cours 0:05:00.440 --> 0:05:03.800 with a rating of seventy four point one, completing just 0:05:03.920 --> 0:05:07.119 under fifty two percent of his passes in the fourth quarter. 0:05:07.520 --> 0:05:10.839 Average is just over six yards in attempt, five touchdowns, 0:05:10.839 --> 0:05:13.000 three interceptions. I realized I threw a lot of numbers 0:05:13.000 --> 0:05:16.120 out there at people. All you gotta know is allan 0:05:16.279 --> 0:05:19.119 third rated quarterback in the league in the fourth quarter, 0:05:19.400 --> 0:05:23.120 Lawrence thirty eighth. The thing that really stands out though, 0:05:23.120 --> 0:05:26.960 in both areas is the completion percentage. Steve Allen ten 0:05:27.000 --> 0:05:30.279 percent better on third down and almost twenty percent better 0:05:30.680 --> 0:05:34.680 in the fourth quarter. What conclusions do you draw from 0:05:34.720 --> 0:05:36.840 those numbers as it pertains to this wild You. 0:05:36.760 --> 0:05:38.280 Can chalk some of it if you're going to try 0:05:38.279 --> 0:05:40.920 and spin this in favor of the Jacksonville team, or 0:05:41.640 --> 0:05:44.960 either way, you know Jack, you can say Hustin Jacksonville 0:05:45.320 --> 0:05:47.400 was on a heater the last eight games of the season. 0:05:47.640 --> 0:05:49.600 He didn't have to throw the football very much in 0:05:49.640 --> 0:05:54.160 the fourth quarter. They're winning games, although they were in 0:05:54.160 --> 0:06:02.120 some tight games. We've seen this and I think Josh's 0:06:02.120 --> 0:06:05.039 critics tend to poop poo these numbers, particul these fourth 0:06:05.080 --> 0:06:07.920 quarter numbers, because they've always got this thing where they 0:06:08.000 --> 0:06:10.080 just revert back to, well, he's never never won the 0:06:10.160 --> 0:06:12.080 championship game, he's never gone to the Super Bowl, He's 0:06:12.120 --> 0:06:15.400 never done this. I told Brown of this, and I 0:06:15.440 --> 0:06:18.520 said all the time, nobody plays as well as Josh 0:06:18.520 --> 0:06:23.600 Allen in the big moments. Nobody, not Mahomes, not Lamar, 0:06:23.880 --> 0:06:28.320 not Burrow, nobody, nobody currently playing in the league plays 0:06:28.360 --> 0:06:32.239 better in crunch time than Josh. And that's we talked 0:06:32.240 --> 0:06:34.640 a little bit about this in the Daily Show. There's 0:06:34.680 --> 0:06:37.400 been a little bit of contention fatigue here, I think, 0:06:37.440 --> 0:06:39.560 particularly early in the season here when they got off 0:06:39.560 --> 0:06:41.479 to a four to oh start and they're like, we 0:06:41.560 --> 0:06:45.200 still got we still have thirteen games to play before 0:06:45.200 --> 0:06:46.320 we can play one that matters. 0:06:46.600 --> 0:06:47.119 We're going. 0:06:47.240 --> 0:06:49.840 They knew after the first month of the season they 0:06:49.839 --> 0:06:51.680 were going to the playoffs, and all they had to 0:06:51.680 --> 0:06:57.960 do is wait, well, they're finally here. You would expect 0:06:58.360 --> 0:07:00.279 them to have a gear. They have not showed own 0:07:00.600 --> 0:07:05.040 consistently throughout the year, and certainly we know that their 0:07:05.120 --> 0:07:07.919 quarterback has that gear. That's what these numbers tell you. 0:07:08.720 --> 0:07:13.600 Yeah, and the completion percentage that the swath of space 0:07:14.240 --> 0:07:17.360 between these two quarterbacks. I mean, I don't know if 0:07:17.360 --> 0:07:21.240 you can explain away a twenty percent difference in completion 0:07:21.360 --> 0:07:25.680 percentage in the fourth quarter. I look, I know Jaguars 0:07:25.680 --> 0:07:28.400 have been ahead a lot in the fourth quarter. They've 0:07:28.440 --> 0:07:32.360 won games by decided point margins because I think since 0:07:32.400 --> 0:07:34.960 Week ten they lead the league in point differential. They're 0:07:34.960 --> 0:07:39.840 like a plus one fifty three. That does not explain 0:07:39.920 --> 0:07:45.560 that level of inefficiency for me. That coupled with the 0:07:45.600 --> 0:07:49.080 fact that Lawrence hasn't been to the playoffs in three 0:07:49.120 --> 0:07:52.600 seasons and the last time he was there he threw 0:07:52.680 --> 0:07:58.960 five picks in two games, I think that says something. 0:08:00.080 --> 0:08:03.720 I don't know that you can bank on Trevor Lawrence 0:08:04.160 --> 0:08:06.160 the way you can bank on Josh Allen in the 0:08:06.200 --> 0:08:08.160 postseason when he elevates his game. 0:08:08.520 --> 0:08:12.600 Yeah, I'm the point differently, I'm not trying to knock Lawrence, 0:08:12.640 --> 0:08:14.760 but I'm just saying he's not act Something's right. Yeah, 0:08:14.760 --> 0:08:17.440 there's something in that that the Chargers were starting with 0:08:17.480 --> 0:08:19.720 the Chargers game where the Chargers only hung up six 0:08:19.800 --> 0:08:25.120 points on this Jacksonville team on the road on a 0:08:25.120 --> 0:08:26.520 one o'clock game coming from the West. 0:08:26.560 --> 0:08:29.120 We're talking about earlier this season, right, Yeah. 0:08:28.800 --> 0:08:31.160 So you look back at this eight game and I 0:08:31.200 --> 0:08:35.480 don't want to poke well, I'm poking holes in it. 0:08:35.559 --> 0:08:38.959 They gave up. They won by twenty nine points against 0:08:39.000 --> 0:08:41.080 the Chargers, which was a good win, except it's that 0:08:41.160 --> 0:08:43.439 old thing where the West Coast team coming to the 0:08:43.440 --> 0:08:45.760 East Coast playing on a one o'clock game is notoriously 0:08:45.800 --> 0:08:50.640 a difficult time slot. Then they played Arizona, struggling team, 0:08:50.720 --> 0:08:53.880 they won by three. They played Tennessee Titans twice. They 0:08:53.880 --> 0:08:56.960 played the Indianapolis Colts twice after the Indianapolis Colts were 0:08:56.960 --> 0:09:02.200 in flames. Then they played the Jets. So the Cardinals, 0:09:02.200 --> 0:09:06.480 the Titans twice, the Colts twice is not a gauntlet. 0:09:07.120 --> 0:09:10.319 If they are a good team, and the Jacksonville Jaguars 0:09:10.360 --> 0:09:13.280 are a good team, they should have been winning big 0:09:13.320 --> 0:09:15.440 on those teams, and they did. They beat the Jets 0:09:15.440 --> 0:09:20.520 by twenty eight, They beat the Colts by six, and 0:09:20.520 --> 0:09:24.400 then they beat them by seventeen the first match. They 0:09:24.440 --> 0:09:27.360 beat the Titans by thirty four. On the final game 0:09:27.400 --> 0:09:30.560 of the season, when the Titans were done. They also 0:09:30.640 --> 0:09:32.720 beat the Titans by twenty two earlier in the season, 0:09:32.760 --> 0:09:38.400 Week thirteen, when the Titans were not going to the playoffs. Okay, 0:09:38.720 --> 0:09:41.000 you're supposed to beat teams like that, and that's why 0:09:41.040 --> 0:09:44.240 their point differential is what it is. The Bills played 0:09:44.240 --> 0:09:48.880 their backups. They played their backups in the same stretch. 0:09:49.440 --> 0:09:53.480 And let's remember, you know what the Bills did by 0:09:53.520 --> 0:09:59.680 beating the Jets, you know, by twenty seven points. And 0:09:59.679 --> 0:10:00.720 that's why what you're supposed to do. 0:10:02.080 --> 0:10:05.360 We know that this matchup is more than just the quarterback, 0:10:05.440 --> 0:10:09.320 so taking a deeper look at the surrounding cast. Obviously, 0:10:09.400 --> 0:10:11.760 James Cook, as the league's leading rusher, gives Buffalo a 0:10:11.800 --> 0:10:15.160 great one two punch with Allen, but Travis Etn had 0:10:15.160 --> 0:10:18.120 over eleven hundred yards on the ground for Jacksonville this season. 0:10:18.200 --> 0:10:21.120 In the pass game, these two teams are quite similar, 0:10:21.160 --> 0:10:25.280 with neither team having an alpha male pass catching threat. 0:10:25.320 --> 0:10:28.840 Both have balanced receiving corps with a quality receiving tight 0:10:28.920 --> 0:10:32.480 end Kincaid for Buffalo, Brenton Strange for the Jaguars. Even 0:10:32.520 --> 0:10:37.240 though Parker Washington led the Jags in receiving yards, Jacoby Myers, 0:10:37.720 --> 0:10:41.200 a trade deadline pickup has been a force multiplier for 0:10:41.240 --> 0:10:45.040 their passing game. He's been huge on inbreaking routes in 0:10:45.040 --> 0:10:49.000 the middle of the field, a trade deadline pickup. So 0:10:49.120 --> 0:10:51.280 Jacksonville leans on their pass game a bit more than 0:10:51.280 --> 0:10:53.720 Buffalo does, as they throw at fifty five percent of 0:10:53.760 --> 0:10:58.360 the time. Meanwhile, Buffalo updated second in the NFL in 0:10:58.440 --> 0:11:01.679 run percentage at fifty and an half percent. So what 0:11:01.760 --> 0:11:05.440 grabs your attention most with some of these figures, Steve. 0:11:05.440 --> 0:11:09.640 Well, I think the thing that grabs me is the 0:11:09.679 --> 0:11:14.120 Bill's ability when teams know they've got James Cook, when 0:11:14.120 --> 0:11:15.760 they know he's gonna run the ball, when they know 0:11:15.800 --> 0:11:19.320 they want to, the Bills are still able to run 0:11:19.320 --> 0:11:22.959 the ball half the time. It'll be interesting to see 0:11:23.040 --> 0:11:29.040 if Jacksonville feels like they need to do anything to 0:11:29.240 --> 0:11:32.520 bolster what is already a good run defense. Are the 0:11:32.559 --> 0:11:36.000 Bills going to get be able to give productive enough 0:11:36.000 --> 0:11:38.800 in the run game to force Jacksonville to double down 0:11:38.800 --> 0:11:41.640 on their run defense and thereby giving Josh a chance 0:11:41.679 --> 0:11:44.200 to throw the football a little better more effectively. The 0:11:44.240 --> 0:11:46.360 health of the wide receiving room has been an issue 0:11:46.400 --> 0:11:49.880 all year. It's been a revolving door, not only because 0:11:49.920 --> 0:11:56.160 of injuries to Palmer, to Sanders, all these guys, but 0:11:56.280 --> 0:12:02.640 also to Kincaid. They've just it's just been a revolving 0:12:02.679 --> 0:12:04.320 door out there. So if they can get a little 0:12:04.400 --> 0:12:08.160 healthier and come out healthier than they have been, perhaps 0:12:08.200 --> 0:12:10.280 that's the kind of boost the passing game needs that 0:12:10.679 --> 0:12:13.000 they don't have to throw to run the football more 0:12:13.040 --> 0:12:17.679 than half the time. But that's the question of this game. 0:12:17.880 --> 0:12:20.440 Number one run defense against the number one run offense. 0:12:20.440 --> 0:12:23.440 And it's a number one run offense that doesn't go 0:12:23.480 --> 0:12:26.120 away from it. You can't scare them off it. 0:12:26.800 --> 0:12:32.440 Yeah, And what I will say is Jacksonville's defense is 0:12:32.480 --> 0:12:36.800 a speed oriented defense that is designed to fly to 0:12:36.840 --> 0:12:40.240 the football and the first tackler usually gets them on 0:12:40.280 --> 0:12:42.640 the ground. They do not give up many yards either 0:12:42.760 --> 0:12:45.600 a after contact in the ground game or b after 0:12:45.640 --> 0:12:48.960 the catch and the receiving game. The offense is that 0:12:49.080 --> 0:12:53.520 Jacksonville has struggled with the most are the big personnel 0:12:53.840 --> 0:12:57.640 offenses San Francisco. You know they put tight ends on 0:12:57.679 --> 0:13:02.839 the field. The Bill we know use two three tight ends. 0:13:03.200 --> 0:13:06.680 Those are the offenses that Jacksonville struggles with more. You 0:13:06.760 --> 0:13:10.520 go big against them, you can sustain drives and finish 0:13:10.600 --> 0:13:13.480 in the end zone. So I think that is one 0:13:13.559 --> 0:13:17.120 area where Buffalo has an edge on a defense that 0:13:17.160 --> 0:13:20.800 has been very good this season. So I'm hopeful that 0:13:20.840 --> 0:13:22.800 the Bills will stick with what has worked for them 0:13:23.160 --> 0:13:25.440 for the balance of the season and continue to go 0:13:25.480 --> 0:13:28.600 twelve personnel thirteen when necessary in hell jumbo if you 0:13:28.640 --> 0:13:32.320 want to with Alec Anderson. When it comes to the 0:13:32.360 --> 0:13:36.840 two defensive units, the Jaguars have a solid group, but 0:13:36.880 --> 0:13:40.720 they do have trouble generating a consistent pass rush, which 0:13:40.760 --> 0:13:44.000 is strange because if you have the number one run defense, 0:13:44.040 --> 0:13:48.280 you should be putting opponents in obvious passing situations. But 0:13:48.320 --> 0:13:51.560 they have just thirty two sacks on the season and 0:13:51.640 --> 0:13:56.319 rank thirtieth in sacks per play. Even Buffalo's defense has 0:13:56.360 --> 0:13:59.600 more sacks than Jacksonville with thirty six, and the Bills 0:13:59.679 --> 0:14:04.520 are fourteenth in sacks per play. Both teams, excuse me. 0:14:04.600 --> 0:14:07.720 Both teams have had their share of problems getting off 0:14:07.760 --> 0:14:11.400 the field on third down. They each surrender third down 0:14:11.440 --> 0:14:14.800 conversions just over forty percent of the time, and they 0:14:14.800 --> 0:14:17.559 are identical when it comes to red zone defense. They 0:14:17.559 --> 0:14:21.640 have both given up exactly twenty eight touchdowns on forty 0:14:21.680 --> 0:14:24.960 seven red zone possessions for a touchdown percentage of fifty 0:14:25.080 --> 0:14:27.880 nine point six percent allowed. So what do you make 0:14:28.360 --> 0:14:32.360 of the Jacksonville struggle to generate an effective pass rush 0:14:32.560 --> 0:14:35.320 and it seems like their defense has some similar problems 0:14:35.480 --> 0:14:37.400 to that of the Bills when it comes to third down. 0:14:37.480 --> 0:14:41.200 Well, I'll say I think, well, one of the reasons 0:14:41.280 --> 0:14:44.800 is it might be that they get enough pressure because 0:14:44.800 --> 0:14:48.560 that helps them in churning out turnovers, which is what 0:14:48.600 --> 0:14:53.840 they're really good at. I think the turnover number wipes 0:14:53.840 --> 0:14:55.280 out a lot of problems. 0:14:54.880 --> 0:14:55.600 For their defense. 0:14:56.880 --> 0:14:59.280 Ball security is going to be huge for the Buffalo 0:14:59.280 --> 0:15:03.000 Bills offense. It comes to be when it comes to 0:15:03.040 --> 0:15:06.360 this game, and I think that stat we saw it 0:15:06.440 --> 0:15:09.520 last year. You just don't worry about your pass rush 0:15:09.560 --> 0:15:12.960 when you're chopping the ball out on fumbles or picking 0:15:13.040 --> 0:15:16.880 it off. I think that's one of the things that 0:15:17.320 --> 0:15:21.400 ball security can really highlight more. If they can't get turnovers, 0:15:22.400 --> 0:15:24.440 they are going to start to feel a little bit 0:15:24.480 --> 0:15:26.920 defenseless in the passing game because of their fact that 0:15:26.960 --> 0:15:31.560 they can't get to Josh. But it starts with ball security, 0:15:31.840 --> 0:15:33.040 that's my take. 0:15:33.280 --> 0:15:37.120 Josh has been sacked forty times this season, and I 0:15:37.160 --> 0:15:42.080 don't think it's been necessarily a breakdown in the quality 0:15:42.120 --> 0:15:44.560 of the pass protection that Buffalo has had this season. 0:15:44.600 --> 0:15:46.920 I think Josh has been hesitant to throw the ball 0:15:46.960 --> 0:15:50.720 away this year on first down, second down, third down. 0:15:51.160 --> 0:15:53.560 He has not thrown it away to live for another 0:15:53.640 --> 0:15:55.680 play as much as he has in the past. And 0:15:55.720 --> 0:16:01.960 hopefully with Joe Brady having Josh Josh self scout himself 0:16:02.480 --> 0:16:08.680 last week, it will encourage him to throw the ball 0:16:08.720 --> 0:16:12.440 away and live for another down rather than take a 0:16:12.480 --> 0:16:14.960 ten yard loss and put your team in a much 0:16:14.960 --> 0:16:19.840 more difficult situation to sustain a drive. And look, I'm 0:16:19.840 --> 0:16:23.480 not dismissing Josh heinz Allen. He has always been a 0:16:23.520 --> 0:16:26.640 problem for the Bills over the years. He was a 0:16:26.680 --> 0:16:29.240 menace in that nine to six game back in twenty 0:16:29.280 --> 0:16:32.000 twenty one. He was a problem in the London game 0:16:32.280 --> 0:16:34.800 in twenty twenty three that the Bill's lost to the Jags. 0:16:35.200 --> 0:16:38.680 So I'm not dismissing him or the number one pick 0:16:38.680 --> 0:16:40.960 in the draft a couple of years ago, Trayvon Walker, 0:16:41.240 --> 0:16:44.080 who was a six', five two hundred and seventy two 0:16:44.120 --> 0:16:48.280 pound condor coming off the edge For jacksonville on the other. 0:16:48.360 --> 0:16:50.000 Side you gotta respect those. 0:16:50.040 --> 0:16:53.600 Guys BUT i Think josh just has to be mindful 0:16:53.720 --> 0:16:57.080 of throwing the ball away and living for second and 0:16:57.240 --> 0:17:01.520 ten or third and five instead of creating a second 0:17:01.600 --> 0:17:06.520 and twenty or a third and. Fifteen, finally we know. Points, 0:17:06.560 --> 0:17:09.159 Sorry i'm struggling. Here now you're doing. Good we know 0:17:09.240 --> 0:17:12.800 points are the thing that decides. Games, overall The bills 0:17:13.040 --> 0:17:16.520 were fifth in total point differential at plus one. Sixteen 0:17:17.040 --> 0:17:20.800 jaguars were fourth at one thirty, eight and Since week, 0:17:20.840 --> 0:17:24.200 Eleven jags are the first in THE nfl at plus 0:17:24.240 --> 0:17:26.919 one fifty three on their eight game winning. Streak but 0:17:27.000 --> 0:17:29.560 The bills are the best second half team in the 0:17:29.640 --> 0:17:35.160 league in point differential plus one twenty. Seven jacksonville ranks 0:17:35.240 --> 0:17:38.600 seventh at a plus thirty seven in the second. Half 0:17:38.800 --> 0:17:42.240 any kind of advantage here For buffalo if the results 0:17:42.240 --> 0:17:43.560 from the regular season hold to. 0:17:43.600 --> 0:17:46.440 Form, well, YEAH i, mean the game's not over until 0:17:46.440 --> 0:17:49.440 the second half. Ends to not over win the first half, 0:17:49.520 --> 0:17:55.160 Ends so you gotta hang tough with them and get 0:17:55.200 --> 0:17:57.199 through this first half and keep it, even keep it. 0:17:57.240 --> 0:18:01.880 Closer if these numbers hold hold To buffalo has been 0:18:02.200 --> 0:18:05.600 a NOTORIOUSLY i don't say a slow starting. Team there 0:18:05.600 --> 0:18:09.000 have been games where they've started, slow BUT i think 0:18:09.040 --> 0:18:11.359 because of the way they have performed in the second, 0:18:11.400 --> 0:18:13.880 half it makes it seem like the first half is slower, Anyway. 0:18:14.000 --> 0:18:17.800 RIGHT i mean that there have been games when they've 0:18:17.800 --> 0:18:23.119 been shut, out that particularly The eagles, game, Right but 0:18:23.280 --> 0:18:26.320 for the most, part they play so well in the second. 0:18:26.400 --> 0:18:30.680 Half you, know you look at That New england. Game, 0:18:31.640 --> 0:18:34.440 Yeah bills were struggling on both sides of the ball 0:18:34.440 --> 0:18:36.520 in That New england. Game they gave a big plays 0:18:37.600 --> 0:18:40.920 and particularly the offense of The, patriots BUT i think 0:18:40.960 --> 0:18:44.640 it exacerbates what you, know it even widens the, margin 0:18:44.640 --> 0:18:46.840 the perceived margin between their first and second. HALF i 0:18:46.840 --> 0:18:48.840 don't think there is big a different, team much of 0:18:48.880 --> 0:18:51.239 a different team in the first and second. Half but 0:18:51.280 --> 0:18:56.240 they do do some things better and certainly do adjust 0:18:56.400 --> 0:19:00.040 very well at halftime and coming out after. Halftime and 0:19:00.040 --> 0:19:03.840 if that holds true to, FORM i don't know that 0:19:03.840 --> 0:19:06.480 there's a lead THAT i would feel comfortable with If 0:19:06.480 --> 0:19:07.680 I'm jacksonville going into. 0:19:07.680 --> 0:19:11.119 Halftime right at the same, time you have to believe 0:19:11.160 --> 0:19:14.760 The bills don't want to rely on, that you, know 0:19:14.800 --> 0:19:17.320 their second half. PROWESS i don't think they want to 0:19:17.320 --> 0:19:19.600 rely on that in a playoff. GAME i think they'd 0:19:19.640 --> 0:19:23.840 obviously like to get off to a strong start in this, 0:19:24.040 --> 0:19:26.760 game or any playoff game for that, matter because you're 0:19:26.760 --> 0:19:30.760 playing better teams in the, postseason and you, know coming 0:19:30.840 --> 0:19:34.360 back on a team of that quality is more difficult 0:19:34.560 --> 0:19:37.160 in the playoffs than it might be in the regular, 0:19:37.200 --> 0:19:39.679 season even though To steve's, point they have done it 0:19:39.680 --> 0:19:45.040 against playoff caliber teams Like New. ENGLAND i think in 0:19:45.119 --> 0:19:48.600 the grand scheme of, things don't have a fat deficit 0:19:48.640 --> 0:19:51.800 at halftime that you have to rally the troops and you, 0:19:51.840 --> 0:19:54.879 know have some monster second half. Effort you're just making 0:19:54.920 --> 0:19:59.080 life harder for yourself. Overall so hopefully they don't have 0:19:59.160 --> 0:20:01.680 to resort to that kind of a second half. Comeback 0:20:01.720 --> 0:20:04.919 but we know it's, there, yeah if they absolutely need. 0:20:04.800 --> 0:20:08.040 It it's not and talking like that we, do and 0:20:08.080 --> 0:20:10.560 we have everybody talks the exact same way that we. 0:20:10.640 --> 0:20:12.880 Do you, know they can't rely on coming. Back they're 0:20:12.920 --> 0:20:15.439 not trying to rely on. Anything they're trying to win 0:20:15.520 --> 0:20:17.720 the game in the first. Half they're trying to score 0:20:17.760 --> 0:20:19.560 so many points that the other team gives. UP i 0:20:19.600 --> 0:20:20.840 mean that's they're trying to do. 0:20:20.880 --> 0:20:21.159 That they. 0:20:21.200 --> 0:20:23.480 Don't they're not, Thinking, okay we'll get this together later. 0:20:23.520 --> 0:20:26.440 On that's not the mindset of AN nfl football team. 0:20:26.480 --> 0:20:30.440 Ever in any, case in any, scenario they're coming out 0:20:30.440 --> 0:20:33.199 and trying to get off to a fast, start and 0:20:33.240 --> 0:20:36.000 they have to adjust to what is another good football 0:20:36.000 --> 0:20:38.600 team is trying to accomplish against. Them they got to 0:20:38.640 --> 0:20:40.720 react to that and adjust to it and get out in. 0:20:40.720 --> 0:20:44.800 Front they have not in too many. Games they have 0:20:44.880 --> 0:20:47.320 not been able to come out and attack the other 0:20:47.359 --> 0:20:50.600 team in a way that the other team is caught 0:20:50.640 --> 0:20:54.159 off guard or in a you can't you don't come 0:20:54.160 --> 0:20:56.000 out faster than the other team is able to come out. 0:20:56.040 --> 0:20:59.000 Fast and it's gonna be even exacerbated by the fact 0:20:59.000 --> 0:21:01.160 that you're on a road against a really good football 0:21:01.200 --> 0:21:04.239 team in the playoffs who's on a. Heater it's going 0:21:04.280 --> 0:21:07.000 to exacerbate their ability to start. Fast you would think 0:21:07.600 --> 0:21:08.840 it doesn't mean it has to be that. 0:21:08.880 --> 0:21:10.920 Way so The. 0:21:10.800 --> 0:21:14.639 Bills, never it's not their strategy to lay down in 0:21:14.680 --> 0:21:16.840 the first half and then adjust and then come out. 0:21:16.880 --> 0:21:20.280 Firing that's never the. Strategy that's the way it looks 0:21:20.400 --> 0:21:24.880 to you, KNOW us fans out, here so don't get 0:21:24.880 --> 0:21:27.480 the mentality or even talk about it like we do 0:21:28.280 --> 0:21:30.359 about them saying they're just gonna wait and see what 0:21:30.400 --> 0:21:32.160 happens in the first, half because nobody does. 0:21:32.200 --> 0:21:36.920 That to illustrate how close many expect this wild card 0:21:36.960 --> 0:21:40.520 game to. Be not only do the odds makers have 0:21:40.640 --> 0:21:44.639 it with a one point, spread BUT espn analytics people 0:21:45.080 --> 0:21:48.399 in Their Football Power index give The bills a forty 0:21:48.480 --> 0:21:51.440 nine point one percent chance to advance to the divisional 0:21:51.520 --> 0:21:55.320 round and The jaguars a fifty point nine percent chance 0:21:55.680 --> 0:22:00.320 to advance to the divisional. Round it's essentially a coin 0:22:00.400 --> 0:22:04.240 flip game in the eyes of the analytics. People let's 0:22:04.240 --> 0:22:07.520 flip things over to the numbers, game Where steve will 0:22:07.560 --> 0:22:08.680 be quizzed. 0:22:08.600 --> 0:22:10.600 On bill's wild card. 0:22:11.320 --> 0:22:16.120 History here we, Go question number, One, steve how many 0:22:16.160 --> 0:22:21.280 wild card games have The bills played in team? History 0:22:21.600 --> 0:22:35.720 not counting This? Sunday all, right he's working through the. 0:22:35.840 --> 0:22:36.240 Years. 0:22:38.960 --> 0:22:47.280 Five it's a lot more than. That, ten it's a 0:22:47.320 --> 0:22:47.760 little bit. 0:22:47.760 --> 0:22:52.199 More it's, thirteen, really thirteen wild card games and this 0:22:52.280 --> 0:22:58.720