WEBVTT - TRUMP’S TARIFFS EXPLAINED: Impact on Your Wallet, Opportunities, Recession Warning & Market Crash 0:00:01.360 --> 0:00:03.640 This episode is brought to you by P and C Bank. 0:00:04.000 --> 0:00:06.760 A lot of people think podcasts about work are boring, 0:00:07.000 --> 0:00:10.840 and sure they definitely can be, but understanding a professionals 0:00:10.920 --> 0:00:14.160 routine shows us how they achieve their success little by little, 0:00:14.560 --> 0:00:18.200 day after day. It's like banking with P and C Bank. 0:00:18.680 --> 0:00:21.480 It might seem boring to safe plan and make calculated 0:00:21.480 --> 0:00:24.599 decisions with your bank, but keeping your money boring is 0:00:24.640 --> 0:00:27.960 what helps you live or more happily fulfilled life. P 0:00:28.080 --> 0:00:32.879 and C Bank Brilliantly Boring since eighteen sixty five. 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Don't wait, don't hesitate. 0:01:45.760 --> 0:01:48.160 Let's Square handle the back end so you can keep 0:01:48.160 --> 0:01:56.200 pushing your vision forward. Ladies and gentlemen, Good evening, Happy 0:01:56.240 --> 0:02:00.200 Thursday and Thursday. Yes, yes, yes, yes, it's uh. It's 0:02:00.200 --> 0:02:01.720 been a hell of a day. It's been a hell 0:02:01.720 --> 0:02:05.160 of a day. Shout out to everybody here in the chat. Alicia, 0:02:05.280 --> 0:02:08.160 what's going on? You said you are a newbie. Welcome 0:02:08.200 --> 0:02:10.240 to the family. Welcome to the family. We're gonna have 0:02:10.280 --> 0:02:15.200 some some insightful conversations tonight, because where else would you 0:02:15.240 --> 0:02:16.720 go to get insightful conversations. 0:02:17.000 --> 0:02:17.640 That's a fact. 0:02:18.000 --> 0:02:21.080 Thank you for trusting us. That's a fact. That's a fact. 0:02:21.639 --> 0:02:22.160 We're going to let. 0:02:22.120 --> 0:02:24.320 Everybody get in here, let the family get in here. 0:02:24.360 --> 0:02:28.239 We're gonna have a spirited conversation because there's a lot 0:02:28.280 --> 0:02:31.560 going on, and there's a lot to be explained, and 0:02:31.560 --> 0:02:34.720 there's a lot of confusion, a lot of anks, a 0:02:34.720 --> 0:02:38.440 lot of uncertainty, and so hopefully we can offer some clarity, 0:02:39.720 --> 0:02:44.320 some concise information that you can take with you tomorrow 0:02:44.400 --> 0:02:45.160 and going forward. 0:02:45.520 --> 0:02:47.080 So that's what our job is here tonight. 0:02:47.680 --> 0:02:54.320 This is e y State of Emergency Special edition for sure. 0:02:54.400 --> 0:02:57.400 For sure, so this is live. This is live, so 0:02:57.440 --> 0:03:02.639 we could definitely answer some questions here. This was Yeah, 0:03:02.680 --> 0:03:04.960 we wasn't expecting to go live. It wasn't expecting to 0:03:04.960 --> 0:03:09.640 have an episode this week, but what everything that's going on, 0:03:09.800 --> 0:03:14.440 felt that it was very timely and very important because 0:03:15.240 --> 0:03:16.800 I'm sure a lot of people lost a lot of 0:03:16.800 --> 0:03:22.160 money today in their in their portfolios, and there's a 0:03:22.200 --> 0:03:25.680 lot of people that's nervous about different things. So we 0:03:25.760 --> 0:03:28.600 are going to provide you with a bunch of information. 0:03:28.800 --> 0:03:33.639 But before we start, ah man, this is more timely 0:03:33.680 --> 0:03:39.040 than ever invest fst. Yeah, this year is gonna be interesting. Yeah, 0:03:39.080 --> 0:03:42.240 for sure. The information and the relationships. The only thing 0:03:42.240 --> 0:03:43.960 that's gonna save you in this world. Get your tickets 0:03:44.000 --> 0:03:47.160 to invest Fast Investfest dot com the holy grail when 0:03:47.160 --> 0:03:51.240 it comes to networking and business and entrepreneurship. August twenty second, 0:03:51.240 --> 0:03:53.960 in Atlanta, Judgia, and don't forget the book. You deserve 0:03:54.040 --> 0:03:56.120 to be rich. This is exactly why you deserve it. 0:03:56.200 --> 0:04:02.760 Also very timely. Yeah, so okay, I have opinions about this, 0:04:03.160 --> 0:04:05.840 So we're gonna bring We're gonna bring some very esteemed 0:04:05.960 --> 0:04:08.800 guests on any minute Friends of the show for sure, yep. 0:04:09.000 --> 0:04:12.720 But before we start, I want to just you know, 0:04:13.640 --> 0:04:18.440 say that I told you. 0:04:18.480 --> 0:04:22.840 So that's what you're starting, all right? Which part? Which 0:04:22.880 --> 0:04:24.960 part did you tell him? Let's start there. 0:04:25.480 --> 0:04:30.839 Well, I said that mass deportation would lead to an 0:04:30.839 --> 0:04:35.920 increase in home prices. And the New York Times actually 0:04:36.000 --> 0:04:40.320 just published an article two days ago about the increasing 0:04:40.360 --> 0:04:45.120 home prices because of mass deportation. They said one guy, 0:04:44.960 --> 0:04:47.120 they had, one guy in particularly, his home was his 0:04:47.279 --> 0:04:50.160 home build. The new home build was going up two 0:04:50.240 --> 0:04:55.960 hundred thousand dollars because of labor. Labor, that's an issue. 0:04:56.080 --> 0:04:59.200 That's one thing I told you about supply is The 0:04:59.240 --> 0:05:01.520 next thing that I I said is that tarris is 0:05:01.560 --> 0:05:06.240 not a good idea. Mass scale tariffs is not a 0:05:06.240 --> 0:05:09.960 good idea. So I think it's important to understand why 0:05:10.000 --> 0:05:13.120 I think that. But it's just my opinion. But I mean, 0:05:13.200 --> 0:05:15.479 we lost one point six trillion dollars in the stock 0:05:15.520 --> 0:05:17.640 market today in the day. I guess a few other 0:05:17.680 --> 0:05:18.960 people feel that same way, but. 0:05:19.279 --> 0:05:21.039 I think most economists felt that way. 0:05:21.600 --> 0:05:24.159 Right, Like if you if you watched and you studied 0:05:24.160 --> 0:05:28.760 economists what they've been saying even pre election, right when 0:05:28.760 --> 0:05:30.560 they were looking at economic plans and they were saying 0:05:30.560 --> 0:05:32.920 tariffs like twenty nine out of thirty. I think some 0:05:33.240 --> 0:05:36.960 percentage like that were like, mass tariffs are a bad idea. 0:05:37.520 --> 0:05:38.960 Even dan Obs yesterday. 0:05:38.720 --> 0:05:41.960 Were saying, like after the rollout, this is worse than 0:05:42.000 --> 0:05:42.880 the worst case scenario. 0:05:43.520 --> 0:05:46.480 Well, another thing I think is interesting is that there's 0:05:46.560 --> 0:05:49.680 really no rhyme or reason to this situation, Like even 0:05:49.720 --> 0:05:54.479 the explanation of how they decided the formula for the taroffs. No, 0:05:54.560 --> 0:05:55.880 we're still trying to figure that part out. 0:05:55.880 --> 0:05:57.479 I looked it up. I looked it up. It's like 0:05:57.520 --> 0:06:00.320 some math equations. The New York Times put it in uh 0:06:00.560 --> 0:06:04.880 in the publication. Even that doesn't the equation doesn't make sense. 0:06:05.040 --> 0:06:06.600 I think the clearest way they're trying to say is 0:06:06.640 --> 0:06:09.360 that whatever they're that the United States is being charge, 0:06:09.640 --> 0:06:13.600 they're gonna give a reciprocal a tariff of half of that. 0:06:13.640 --> 0:06:15.720 But that's not the case though, I know. And so 0:06:15.760 --> 0:06:17.279 they just made up a random They just made up 0:06:17.360 --> 0:06:20.480 random numbers and threw it at the board. I got 0:06:20.520 --> 0:06:22.920 the border here the board. Let's put it up. Let's 0:06:22.920 --> 0:06:27.000 put the board up. Let's put the board up. Yeah. 0:06:27.040 --> 0:06:29.280 So I mean just look at Japan, right, I mean 0:06:29.440 --> 0:06:37.520 forty six, So twenty four is not fifty forty six, right, 0:06:37.680 --> 0:06:40.240 So it's just a bunch of random like we're in. 0:06:40.320 --> 0:06:43.000 Colombia is ten to ten. So some countries they matched, 0:06:43.080 --> 0:06:46.760 even some countries they did fifty. Some countries they did thirty. 0:06:47.120 --> 0:06:51.280 Some countries. There's really no set rhyme or reason behind 0:06:51.440 --> 0:06:57.600 how they actually got these tariffs. Vietnam ninety. Okay. What 0:06:58.040 --> 0:07:02.000 I also said earlier on social media was that you know, 0:07:02.160 --> 0:07:06.520 a lot of people Trump's thing is that it's retaliatory, 0:07:07.400 --> 0:07:10.480 and they tax us, they have tariffs on us. So 0:07:10.520 --> 0:07:13.040 I think it's important to actually have some level of understanding. 0:07:13.080 --> 0:07:14.760 I said this on social media, but a lot of 0:07:14.800 --> 0:07:16.840 these terrifts was put in place after World War Two 0:07:17.160 --> 0:07:20.280 when we were trying to actually help rebuild the world really, 0:07:20.320 --> 0:07:23.640 but especially these Asian countries. That was I mean, they 0:07:23.760 --> 0:07:26.800 was damned and devastated tremendously from the war, right, so 0:07:26.840 --> 0:07:32.880 that was a way. But America has the largest spending 0:07:33.000 --> 0:07:35.560 economy in the history of the world in so far economy, 0:07:36.920 --> 0:07:42.920 and the amount of money that we actually spend on 0:07:43.520 --> 0:07:47.880 exports far exceeds the amount that we The amount of 0:07:47.880 --> 0:07:49.760 money that we spent on imports far seas the amount 0:07:49.800 --> 0:07:51.680 that we spent on exports. So we spent three point 0:07:51.760 --> 0:07:56.880 two trillion dollars on exports, but around two trillion on 0:07:58.160 --> 0:08:02.240 exports three point two one imports, two trillion on exports, 0:08:02.400 --> 0:08:06.880 so that leaves a one point one trillion dollar deficit. 0:08:07.240 --> 0:08:09.960 So the idea of like an i Fouri is not 0:08:10.120 --> 0:08:17.080 really a relevant conversation because we spend so much more 0:08:18.000 --> 0:08:22.720 on exports on imports, and that's everything from cars to fabrics, 0:08:22.800 --> 0:08:27.240 to furnitures, to games, you name it. The biggest continent 0:08:27.400 --> 0:08:32.640 that we that we import products from is Asia. China 0:08:32.679 --> 0:08:34.439 is the number one country, and then after that it's 0:08:34.440 --> 0:08:38.960 North America with Canada, and Mexico. So what ends up 0:08:39.040 --> 0:08:42.640 happening is that when you have tariffs. Let's say it's 0:08:42.679 --> 0:08:46.480 a board game that's coming from Vietnam and Walmart is 0:08:46.480 --> 0:08:50.160 carrying it, so Vietnam doesn't pay more money, but what 0:08:50.280 --> 0:08:52.880 happens is that Walmart is gonna have to pay more money. 0:08:52.960 --> 0:08:55.880 I think that is the confusion, and because that's been 0:08:55.920 --> 0:08:58.079 the message throughout the campaign, is that it's a tax 0:08:58.160 --> 0:09:00.200 on the country. It's a tax on the country. Set 0:09:00.240 --> 0:09:03.240 a tax, a tax on the country. People believe that 0:09:03.400 --> 0:09:06.160 a tariff is a tax on the country. What a 0:09:06.600 --> 0:09:08.640 tariff is is kind of what you're explaining right, Like, 0:09:08.960 --> 0:09:11.520 it won't be up to the country, It'll be on 0:09:11.600 --> 0:09:13.680 the person that is receiving the import. 0:09:13.400 --> 0:09:15.480 The person that buys the products from the country. 0:09:15.720 --> 0:09:15.880 Thing. 0:09:16.080 --> 0:09:19.080 So then okay, so if a board game goes from 0:09:19.200 --> 0:09:21.320 ten dollars to twelve dollars, that they have to buy it. 0:09:21.400 --> 0:09:23.400 Now they're going to have to sell it. It's not 0:09:23.440 --> 0:09:25.840 going to be eighteen dollars, is going to be twenty 0:09:25.880 --> 0:09:28.120 two dollars when they sell it. Yeah, so that's why 0:09:28.120 --> 0:09:31.200 everything is going to go up because it's going to 0:09:31.280 --> 0:09:33.880 cost more money. Now, another thing that let. 0:09:34.240 --> 0:09:36.040 Me just touch on that so to like even make 0:09:36.080 --> 0:09:39.560 it more clear for you. Right, let's use the Walmart example. 0:09:39.920 --> 0:09:42.920 Let's use the board game for example. That tariff that 0:09:43.000 --> 0:09:45.559 comes with the board game, Right, Walmart is going to 0:09:45.720 --> 0:09:47.839 have to do have a choice here, Right, They're either 0:09:47.880 --> 0:09:50.160 going to say, we're going to pay this tariff whatever 0:09:50.160 --> 0:09:52.400 the percentage is, or we're not. 0:09:52.320 --> 0:09:54.000 Going to pay this tariff. And you know who's going 0:09:54.040 --> 0:09:56.040 to pay it, our customers. 0:09:56.240 --> 0:09:59.200 And so when they put that price inside of whatever 0:09:59.200 --> 0:10:01.160 the product is, you pay more. 0:10:01.360 --> 0:10:03.679 Yeah, but they still even if they pay it, they're 0:10:03.679 --> 0:10:06.440 still going to pay what I'm saying they have Walmart 0:10:06.480 --> 0:10:08.960 has to pay it, but the cost is going to 0:10:08.960 --> 0:10:11.719 be built into the product, which now the product pays more. 0:10:11.760 --> 0:10:14.600 So so then another theory is that, Okay, well this 0:10:14.760 --> 0:10:19.440 is going to force jobs back to America. Now, on theory, 0:10:19.800 --> 0:10:22.959 that's not That's not a bad theory. I want to 0:10:23.000 --> 0:10:25.679 be non biased about this conversation. It's not a bad 0:10:25.720 --> 0:10:30.240 theory because we we we have outsourced manufacturing for decades 0:10:30.400 --> 0:10:33.800 and we are dependent on other countries and that that 0:10:33.840 --> 0:10:37.280 could lead to problems. Now, but the problem with this 0:10:37.840 --> 0:10:41.000 theory is that it's going obviously it's going to take 0:10:41.040 --> 0:10:44.800 a long time. You just can't build seven hundred factories 0:10:44.840 --> 0:10:46.360 in one month, right, So it's going to take a 0:10:46.360 --> 0:10:48.640 long time to actually build these factories. But it's the 0:10:48.679 --> 0:10:51.319 first problem. That's the first problem. So there's going to 0:10:51.360 --> 0:10:54.160 be paying in that in that process. The second problem 0:10:54.559 --> 0:10:58.160 is that the labor. So I put it on Instagram, 0:10:58.360 --> 0:11:00.760 the price that it costs to build a car per 0:11:00.840 --> 0:11:05.440 worker in America is seventy dollars. The price that it 0:11:05.559 --> 0:11:09.040 costs in Mexico is like six dollars an hour. So 0:11:09.400 --> 0:11:11.600 if you have to pay work, that's why the prices 0:11:11.600 --> 0:11:15.920 of houses are going up, because the amount of money 0:11:15.920 --> 0:11:19.320 that you can pay an undocumented immigrant is a lot 0:11:19.440 --> 0:11:21.520 lower than the amount of money that you would have 0:11:21.520 --> 0:11:24.040 to pay a union construction worker. I'm not saying what's 0:11:24.080 --> 0:11:28.200 right or wrong, right, that's not the base of this conversation. 0:11:28.240 --> 0:11:30.719 I'm just saying that's just the actual fact. So if 0:11:30.760 --> 0:11:33.000 you have to pay somebody more money, once again, what 0:11:33.080 --> 0:11:34.679 do you think that that cost is going to go. 0:11:34.760 --> 0:11:36.960 That's going to go to the consumer because it's going 0:11:37.040 --> 0:11:39.240 to cost more money to get the job done. Another 0:11:39.280 --> 0:11:41.760 thing like using the auto industry as an example, but 0:11:41.840 --> 0:11:45.800 this is true to any Like there's companies now that 0:11:45.840 --> 0:11:49.240 make products in America, auto companies. There's no auto company 0:11:49.240 --> 0:11:52.880 that makes products in America that does not ship and 0:11:52.960 --> 0:11:55.760 receive products from overseas to build the car. So when 0:11:55.800 --> 0:11:57.320 you build the car, you have to get an engine, 0:11:57.400 --> 0:12:00.640 you have to get a variety of different compacts. Those 0:12:00.679 --> 0:12:04.800 parts come from overseas. So now if you put tariffs 0:12:04.800 --> 0:12:06.400 on those parts, it's still going to raise the course 0:12:06.440 --> 0:12:08.840 of the car and a variety of the different things. 0:12:08.840 --> 0:12:10.880 So it's like, okay, well, why can't we get cheap 0:12:10.920 --> 0:12:15.640 parts made in America. Well, it's it's a pretty complicated problem, 0:12:15.720 --> 0:12:19.200 right because well that goes back to the labor as well. 0:12:19.760 --> 0:12:22.480 That goes back to actually having the facilities to actually 0:12:22.520 --> 0:12:24.680 do it. There's a variety of different things that we've 0:12:24.720 --> 0:12:30.120 outsourced and we don't have Let's just be honest, we 0:12:30.200 --> 0:12:35.439 don't have a labor force that is built to build iPhones. 0:12:35.480 --> 0:12:37.600 Like nobody wants that's nobody wants to sit in a 0:12:37.720 --> 0:12:40.280 tech sweatshop for twelve hours a day. 0:12:40.480 --> 0:12:42.240 Is yeah, this is not right around. This is just 0:12:42.640 --> 0:12:46.440 literally what's happening. And I saw the statistic, it was like, 0:12:46.480 --> 0:12:50.600 this makes perfect sense. Right, we let with yes, we 0:12:50.720 --> 0:12:53.560 are the number one consumer nation. Right, our GDP is 0:12:53.960 --> 0:12:58.240 twenty percent, right of the world's In twenty percent of 0:12:58.240 --> 0:13:01.360 the world's GDP belongs the United States. Right, we have 0:13:01.520 --> 0:13:04.880 five percent of the world's population, which means that we're 0:13:04.920 --> 0:13:07.720 always going to fall short on labor. The other part 0:13:07.760 --> 0:13:10.040 is that when we have the labor, we can't afford 0:13:10.080 --> 0:13:12.360 to pay the labor. Right, So this is why you 0:13:12.480 --> 0:13:15.679 outsource jobs. Look at a company like Apple for example, 0:13:15.679 --> 0:13:20.920 today right had its worst day since the COVID pandemic started. 0:13:21.360 --> 0:13:24.920 Why Well, a lot of the factories and a lot 0:13:24.920 --> 0:13:28.400 of the products that they manufacture come from China. If 0:13:28.400 --> 0:13:30.679 you're going to put that heavy of attax on China, 0:13:30.760 --> 0:13:33.120 what do you think is going to happen into a. 0:13:33.040 --> 0:13:34.560 Company like Apple's products? 0:13:34.720 --> 0:13:37.640 Right, That nine hundred dollars phone is now going to 0:13:37.679 --> 0:13:40.840 be fifteen seventeen. 0:13:43.559 --> 0:13:45.960 And then and then it's also a thing. By the 0:13:45.960 --> 0:13:49.439 time they build the factories, AI's robots are going to 0:13:49.480 --> 0:13:52.960 be doing the jobs anyway that's cost effective. But that's 0:13:52.960 --> 0:13:55.959 not helpful as far as getting American jobs. These jobs 0:13:55.960 --> 0:13:59.400 are not coming back to America because they're not they're outdated. Anyway. 0:14:00.040 --> 0:14:02.400 Eventually these jobs are not even gonna be done by 0:14:02.440 --> 0:14:06.120 human beings anyway. So to have a long term trajectory 0:14:06.240 --> 0:14:10.960 on a short term job, it's not sustainable, Like human 0:14:11.000 --> 0:14:13.480 beings are not going to be manufacturing cars for too 0:14:13.559 --> 0:14:16.520 much longer. It doesn't make sense cars when you tail product, 0:14:16.520 --> 0:14:19.560 when you can have a robot do it, why would 0:14:19.600 --> 0:14:22.040 you have a human do it? So there's this bright side. 0:14:22.040 --> 0:14:25.600 And while I'm watching all this knowing that, it's like, well, 0:14:25.800 --> 0:14:27.720 if it's going to be roboties, it's going to be 0:14:27.760 --> 0:14:30.240 a gentist. Well we've already been speaking about that, right, 0:14:30.280 --> 0:14:32.360 So the bright side is, yes, this pain right now, 0:14:32.560 --> 0:14:33.840 but we can see what the future is at it. 0:14:34.320 --> 0:14:36.240 Right, we can kind of see like there's not going 0:14:36.320 --> 0:14:37.560 to be a human doing those jobs. 0:14:37.600 --> 0:14:40.200 Right, whether you're talking about Apple, you're talking about Nike, 0:14:40.360 --> 0:14:43.720 you're talking about Walmart from a retail or a good side, 0:14:44.040 --> 0:14:45.920 those jobs are going to be done by robotics. We 0:14:45.960 --> 0:14:48.640 can agree on that. Yeah, go forward, and it's more 0:14:48.680 --> 0:14:50.920 cost effective to do that. So if we think about 0:14:51.000 --> 0:14:52.720 who's gonna pay for the labor, well, if we have 0:14:52.840 --> 0:14:56.880 machines doing the labor, then that labor course is gonna 0:14:56.920 --> 0:14:57.320 go down. 0:14:57.680 --> 0:15:00.560 The labor course goes down, but the unemployment. So there 0:15:00.600 --> 0:15:02.520 we go. The number one thing is like, we're going 0:15:02.560 --> 0:15:05.680 to bring jobs back to America. Well that's not really 0:15:05.720 --> 0:15:09.240 bringing jobs back. If robots are assembling iPhones and robots 0:15:09.240 --> 0:15:14.760 are assembling cars, where's the jobs? Okay, Okay, Well let's 0:15:16.240 --> 0:15:19.600 since sometimes people need to hear it from other points 0:15:19.640 --> 0:15:22.960 of view, So we're going to bring our friend, the 0:15:23.080 --> 0:15:27.400 NBC corresponding and host Frank Collin. 0:15:29.440 --> 0:15:30.640 What's up, what's going on? 0:15:31.000 --> 0:15:31.560 What's going on? 0:15:31.800 --> 0:15:32.240 What's up? 0:15:32.280 --> 0:15:32.600 Man? 0:15:32.920 --> 0:15:34.880 Man honored a pleasure to be back with It's not 0:15:34.920 --> 0:15:36.440 market Monday's Market Thursdays. 0:15:36.440 --> 0:15:38.960 I guess you know, terror special, but it's really a 0:15:38.960 --> 0:15:39.320 pleasure to. 0:15:41.480 --> 0:15:43.880 Always like listening to these conversations you guys have, especially 0:15:43.880 --> 0:15:45.280 when you kick off the show, because it just kind 0:15:45.320 --> 0:15:46.920 of gives everybody an insight of what you guys are 0:15:46.920 --> 0:15:48.160 thinking about, what's on your mind. 0:15:48.480 --> 0:15:50.920 For sure, I appreciate that. And shout shout out to Ian. 0:15:50.920 --> 0:15:52.360 I know a lot of people in the chat. Ian 0:15:52.440 --> 0:15:54.560 is actually in the chat, y'all, so like you're asking 0:15:54.600 --> 0:15:55.880 for him, he's in the chat. 0:15:55.600 --> 0:15:58.120 Shout out to salute. 0:15:59.000 --> 0:16:01.200 Okay, So yeah, that it was up to end man, 0:16:01.320 --> 0:16:03.240 tell you what's up, don't get me up. 0:16:03.640 --> 0:16:07.560 So, Frank, you work on you work at CNBC. 0:16:07.680 --> 0:16:08.920 Right, So. 0:16:10.840 --> 0:16:14.400 Okay. Sometimes people might think that I'm a little biased, 0:16:14.840 --> 0:16:16.920 but I would like, I'm sure anymore. 0:16:17.080 --> 0:16:19.080 I'm reading the comments, Like for the first time I 0:16:19.120 --> 0:16:21.560 read comments and it was like, this is what you 0:16:21.640 --> 0:16:23.160 asked for or they're like you. 0:16:23.120 --> 0:16:24.880 Were a dem I'm like, what side do they think 0:16:24.880 --> 0:16:25.080 you on? 0:16:25.200 --> 0:16:28.240 At this point, It's mixed signals out there. 0:16:29.360 --> 0:16:30.200 I'm on everybody. 0:16:32.160 --> 0:16:34.480 I'm on the side recession. 0:16:34.760 --> 0:16:37.520 I'm on the side we were on the side of 0:16:37.600 --> 0:16:42.840 the Green Party there. When I say Green party, that president, Yes, 0:16:43.120 --> 0:16:46.760 for sure. So Frank, you're. 0:16:46.680 --> 0:16:49.400 Kind of listening to some of the conversation, right, Absolutely, 0:16:49.680 --> 0:16:50.880 you brought up the R word. 0:16:51.280 --> 0:16:52.880 I didn't want to bring it up, but based on 0:16:52.920 --> 0:16:56.360 the things we're saying, the TV's are kind of pointing 0:16:56.400 --> 0:16:57.040 to it that No. 0:16:58.080 --> 0:17:00.960 I mean, it's it's definitely I kind of tenuous situation. 0:17:01.080 --> 0:17:02.600 I mean we also what happened on the markets today. 0:17:02.600 --> 0:17:05.359 I think the Dow drop was sixteen hundred points. Huge 0:17:05.440 --> 0:17:08.040 drops for tech, huge drops are just about every part 0:17:08.080 --> 0:17:09.600 of the market. But I want to go back to 0:17:09.600 --> 0:17:11.680 what you guys were talking about about the terror formula, 0:17:11.760 --> 0:17:13.360 and I think that has a lot of people scratching 0:17:13.359 --> 0:17:16.560 their head. I would imagine some other countries scratching their head. 0:17:16.760 --> 0:17:20.239 The Trump administration did say that they're doing reciprocal terror. Well, 0:17:20.280 --> 0:17:22.159 first off, that ten percent across the board tariff and 0:17:22.200 --> 0:17:25.240 reciprocal tariffs, but they said they have their own formula. 0:17:25.280 --> 0:17:27.399 So some of it's based on what other countries charge us, 0:17:27.440 --> 0:17:29.200 and then some of it's based on what they say 0:17:29.480 --> 0:17:32.400 are non tariff barriers like bad taxes and stuff like that. 0:17:33.119 --> 0:17:34.960 Ian Bremmer really smart guy when it comes in the 0:17:35.080 --> 0:17:37.120 National things, president of e RASOR group. 0:17:37.119 --> 0:17:38.280 I think he's the founder as well. 0:17:38.600 --> 0:17:40.920 He put out a tweet basically saying that the Trump 0:17:40.960 --> 0:17:44.199 administration they took the trade surplus with these country and 0:17:44.240 --> 0:17:46.000 then divided it by the exports, and that's how they 0:17:46.040 --> 0:17:48.000 came with the numbers, like for the EU, that's how 0:17:48.000 --> 0:17:50.679 they came with thirty nine percent. So you know, he 0:17:50.760 --> 0:17:53.880 was very critical of it, but I think doesn't matter 0:17:53.880 --> 0:17:55.679 the formula right now, just the levels of it right 0:17:55.680 --> 0:17:59.200 now are making things, you know, I think, making everybody 0:17:59.280 --> 0:18:01.960 nervous across the world. So one of the the estimates 0:18:02.000 --> 0:18:04.480 that I've been really leaning on is from Ernst and Young. 0:18:04.960 --> 0:18:07.920 They see inflation going up one percent GDP going down 0:18:08.080 --> 0:18:10.359 one percent in twenty twenty five. That's basically what a 0:18:10.359 --> 0:18:12.680 lot of people call stackflation. That's prices going up but 0:18:12.760 --> 0:18:16.080 growth going down. More than likely wages stay in flat. 0:18:16.119 --> 0:18:17.840 And we all know when prices go up your wages 0:18:17.880 --> 0:18:20.560 stay flat, Well, you're losing money essentially, and that's what 0:18:20.680 --> 0:18:22.480 a lot of people talk about. When you talk about 0:18:22.520 --> 0:18:24.960 investing in gold or bitcoin. You want to invest in 0:18:25.000 --> 0:18:26.720 an appreciating asset, and a lot of people feel like 0:18:26.760 --> 0:18:29.960 a dollar is actually a depreciating asset. So there is 0:18:30.000 --> 0:18:32.560 a lot of danger going forward. Nobody wants to talk 0:18:32.560 --> 0:18:34.639 about recession, but it's certainly one of the dangers. I 0:18:34.640 --> 0:18:37.240 believe JP Morgan raised their estimate from twenty percent up 0:18:37.280 --> 0:18:40.240 to thirty five percent. We're talking about a chance of recession. 0:18:40.240 --> 0:18:42.480 I've talked to a lot of CEOs about this, and 0:18:42.480 --> 0:18:44.000 a lot of them say, I just got to sit 0:18:44.040 --> 0:18:44.320 still and. 0:18:44.359 --> 0:18:46.280 To have more clarity, and I don't think we have 0:18:46.359 --> 0:18:47.360 more clarity yet. 0:18:47.560 --> 0:18:49.880 Well, that's what I wanted to ask you, because we're 0:18:49.880 --> 0:18:52.040 going to make this a group discussion. We got another surprise. 0:18:52.119 --> 0:18:56.360 But you talk to a lot of c oh right, 0:18:56.560 --> 0:18:58.480 you talk to a lot of intelligent people, and you 0:18:58.520 --> 0:19:01.439 talk to a lot of wealthy people. What is the 0:19:01.640 --> 0:19:06.280 sentiment of those people that you're talking to? 0:19:07.480 --> 0:19:09.479 Confusion man. And by the way, you guys are too 0:19:09.480 --> 0:19:12.000 wealthy and smart guys I'll talk to. But confusion. 0:19:13.320 --> 0:19:18.160 No, I'm not. I'm legend. 0:19:21.880 --> 0:19:23.520 Just a lot of confusion. A lot of people aren't 0:19:23.560 --> 0:19:25.520 quite sure how this is all going to play out. 0:19:25.600 --> 0:19:27.879 Some of them are confused. Why why are we putting 0:19:27.920 --> 0:19:29.800 tariffs on Canada? You know what I mean, our neighbor 0:19:29.840 --> 0:19:31.720 to the north that we depend on. Why are we 0:19:31.720 --> 0:19:35.080 putting these traffs on Mexico? We remember President Trump during 0:19:35.080 --> 0:19:37.960 his first term, he's the one that negotiated the usmc A. 0:19:38.160 --> 0:19:41.560 So the reason why some of these these goods are 0:19:41.600 --> 0:19:44.520 moving back and forth is because he signed onto a 0:19:44.560 --> 0:19:48.360 deal that incentivized companies to look at Canada, the United 0:19:48.400 --> 0:19:51.800 States and Mexico is one block now the usmc A, 0:19:52.320 --> 0:19:54.919 and to build in Mexico and to building Canada. So 0:19:55.280 --> 0:19:57.879 that agreement incentivized a lot of them. One of the 0:19:57.880 --> 0:19:59.680 prevalent things I'm hearing from a lot of CEOs is 0:19:59.720 --> 0:20:01.800 that we've build our supply chain, we build our factories, 0:20:01.800 --> 0:20:05.280 we build whatever we're building for decades. We're not building 0:20:05.560 --> 0:20:08.520 for this administration. We're not building for the next four years. 0:20:08.760 --> 0:20:11.639 So how do you make decade long decisions when you 0:20:11.720 --> 0:20:13.639 know this person's going to be in the office for 0:20:13.680 --> 0:20:15.639 four years and you don't know what the next person 0:20:15.680 --> 0:20:15.959 may think. 0:20:15.960 --> 0:20:18.080 They may have a totally different view on trade altogether? 0:20:19.760 --> 0:20:24.720