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Speaker 1: lowest prices guaranteed. All right, little reaction on the Phillies
Speaker 1: wrapping up their series headed to the National League Championship
Speaker 1: Series again and the Broncos getting sort of humiliated nineteen
Speaker 1: to eight. Didn't feel anywhere close to that. Chad Milman
Speaker 1: sharper square in ten minutes. So two things. One, Kansas
Speaker 1: City needs to go get a wide receiver at the
Speaker 1: trade deadline. Jerry Judy Cortland Sutton. I think Denver at
Speaker 1: this point would trade in division. I think Denver's got
Speaker 1: to figure out Denver. I think they know they're not
Speaker 1: in the same stratosphere as Denver knows they're not in
Speaker 1: Kansas City's galaxy. So they used to be sort of
Speaker 1: an unwritten rule. You just didn't trade in division, try
Speaker 1: not to trade in conference. If you're Sean Payton, you're
Speaker 1: staring at Russell Wilson's contract. You got to solve your stuff.
Speaker 1: You can't worry about that. You can't where anybody you
Speaker 1: trade them is not going to be around in two
Speaker 1: or three years probably. Anyway, Kansas City moves off star receivers,
Speaker 1: they move off all receivers, including Tyreek Hill and others,
Speaker 1: Juju Smith, Schuster, one and done. So. Kansas City is
Speaker 1: a really good football team. But I think the entire
Speaker 1: league looks at San Francisco and looks at the way
Speaker 1: they thrash Pittsburgh's roster and the Cowboys. You're going to
Speaker 1: really struggle to move the football if you're the Chiefs
Speaker 1: against that San Francisco defense, if you event faced them,
Speaker 1: or Philadelphia's defense for that matter. So Chiefs go get
Speaker 1: a wide receiver to deadline. We've been talking about that
Speaker 1: for a couple of weeks. When you have Andy Reid
Speaker 1: and Mahomes and you're scoring nineteen and dominating time of possession,
Speaker 1: you need another pop on the perimeter. You know, as
Speaker 1: far as Denver, there's just no way Russell Wilson's going
Speaker 1: to last half of this contract. New owner Sean Payton.
Speaker 1: You can say what you want about Sean Payton, but
Speaker 1: he next to Andy Reid, is the most innovative offensive
Speaker 1: guy in the last fifteen years in the NFL. I
Speaker 1: know half a dozen players that have played for him
Speaker 1: and loved him. Thought he was just a brilliant coach.
Speaker 1: And there's a reason, you know, many people wanted to
Speaker 1: interview him. He's the smartest football coach I've ever interviewed
Speaker 1: on a consistent basis in terms of knowledge of offense.
Speaker 1: It's I mean, just layered, beyond layered. He won with
Speaker 1: Teddy Bridgewater, Drew Brees, he won with a Taysom Hill,
Speaker 1: a winning record, never been shut out. I mean, he
Speaker 1: knows what he's doing. I know people didn't like the
Speaker 1: call he made tonight at the end of the first half.
Speaker 1: It doesn't matter. There's no salary cap for coaches. He's
Speaker 1: going nowhere. The GM might get replaced now. The good
Speaker 1: news for Denver, even with Russell Wilson's contract, you can
Speaker 1: turn things around really quickly in this league. This is
Speaker 1: not Major League Baseball, where you need like four drafts
Speaker 1: and certain teams have spending limitations. Right like a third
Speaker 1: of Major League Baseball, maybe half, just can't compete with
Speaker 1: the Houstons and the Dodgers and the Mets. Financially, it's
Speaker 1: not the NBA where you really have to have three
Speaker 1: high end players to compete for a championship. I mean,
Speaker 1: Kansas City has one elite defensive player. Bolton's a very
Speaker 1: good linebacker, but Chris Jones is your Pro bowler. The
Speaker 1: bottom line, young and cheap on defense works. You know
Speaker 1: you're going to spend your money on quarterback, left tackle,
Speaker 1: star receiver or tight end. That's where the smart teams
Speaker 1: in this league, like Kansas City spend their money on offense.
Speaker 1: The teams like Pittsburgh that are spending their money on defense,
Speaker 1: when's their last big playoff last decade? Right? So you know,
Speaker 1: you get rid of some players, you get yourself ten
Speaker 1: or eleven draft picks, you hit on seven of them.
Speaker 1: I mean the Rams had fourteen guys make the team
Speaker 1: this year out of the draft. I think it was fourteen.
Speaker 1: It could be wrong on that number. And they've been
Speaker 1: much better defensively than anybody thought, so you can turn
Speaker 1: it around. I mean, the Seahawks had back to back
Speaker 1: drafts where they they nailed their first four or five picks.
Speaker 1: That's ten players, and that's what Denver has to do.
Speaker 1: They've got to nail five or six players per draft
Speaker 1: over the next two years and have a lot of
Speaker 1: you know, for lack of a better term, cheap labor.
Speaker 1: I mean, they got to have inexpensive players, a lot
Speaker 1: of third, fourth, fifth, sixth round guys. And when you're
Speaker 1: not a great defensive team like the Rams coming into
Speaker 1: this season, you can do that fifth round guys have
Speaker 1: an impact. So but this just isn't gonna work. I mean,
Speaker 1: ninety five yards passing, seventeen yards passing I think, or
Speaker 1: thirty two yards passing in the first half for Russell Willson.
Speaker 1: It's just not going to work. And you know, people say, well,
Speaker 1: it's not Russell's fault. Listen, when that game was thirteen nothing,
Speaker 1: it felt over. It would not have felt over with
Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurtz, Justin Herbert, Trevor Lawrence.
Speaker 1: So Russell Wilson is the problem. If you trail thirteen
Speaker 1: to nothing against a good defense and the game feels
Speaker 1: over at any point other than the last five minutes,
Speaker 1: the quarterback's the issue. It doesn't mean he's the worst
Speaker 1: player on the team. It doesn't mean there are other issues,
Speaker 1: but his salary combined with his lack of juice, he's
Speaker 1: the issue. Right. It's really unprecedented where you see a
Speaker 1: star quarterback with no major injury drop off a cliff.
Speaker 1: It's unprecedented in the history of the NFL. I've never
Speaker 1: seen anything like it. I mean, I saw Peyton Manning
Speaker 1: at the end five years older than Russ is now
Speaker 1: and four next surgeries go from really good to you know,
Speaker 1: clearly not the same quarterback. Russ is never a major injury.
Speaker 1: He's a workaholic. It's just you know, Pete Carroll saw
Speaker 1: a lot of things. He saw him age quickly, and
Speaker 1: now it's Sean Payton's problem. So it's just not going
Speaker 1: to last very long. This owner and this coach. I
Speaker 1: think they're going to try to accumulate a lot of
Speaker 1: picks and somewhere in this draft, a very strong quarterback draft,
Speaker 1: try to get themselves the next guy. I'm dead serious.
Speaker 1: I just don't think they're going to be patient, especially
Speaker 1: in the AFC. You know, patients is what fired coaches say.
Speaker 1: You know, that's what they preach. You got to get
Speaker 1: stuff solved. Phillies National League Championship Series again. So a
Speaker 1: lot of people in baseball are discouraged or disappointed that
Speaker 1: the Rays and the Orioles and the Dodgers and the
Speaker 1: Braves who had dominating regular seasons all got flushed out
Speaker 1: of the playoffs rather quickly. But I talked about this
Speaker 1: on FS one to day. I don't think it's a
Speaker 1: terrible thing. I think the Phillies with Bryce Harper are
Speaker 1: a great watch. And I mean it's you know, the Rays,
Speaker 1: the Orioles don't have national followings, So I don't think
Speaker 1: it's bad for the networks, you know, at all. I
Speaker 1: think the reality is baseball is an everyday sport and
Speaker 1: when you give favorites they don't have to play in
Speaker 1: that wildcard round, they get five six days off. I
Speaker 1: think that's problematic for those teams. I don't think it's
Speaker 1: problematic for baseball, because again I think the Phillies to
Speaker 1: me are as much fun or a better watch due
Speaker 1: to Bryce Harper than the Braves. But the bigger issue
Speaker 1: is the Yankees weren't very good this year. In the
Speaker 1: Red Sox weren't very good this year, and the Mets
Speaker 1: were a complete disappointment, and so if the Yankees were
Speaker 1: a viable franchise, Houston's gonna following, Phillies have a following,
Speaker 1: you'd be fine. But you know, baseball did a lot
Speaker 1: of things right in the last couple of years. The
Speaker 1: speed the game up at tenant and TV ratings are
Speaker 1: up about ten percent. They got rid of the defensive shift.
Speaker 1: I thought that was very smart. They'll never get rid
Speaker 1: of Bay games and get down to like one hundred
Speaker 1: and twenty games a year, which I think they should.
Speaker 1: I think they should start a month later, finish six
Speaker 1: weeks earlier, and wrap it up by October first or
Speaker 1: September fifteenth. By the time the NFL's cooking getting into
Speaker 1: it second week, you're done. NFL is so popular now
Speaker 1: that baseball stands very little chance of pulling away audience.
Speaker 1: You know, if you get into late October, you have
Speaker 1: to have the Yankees or like the Cubs going for
Speaker 1: a World Series. You're just not going to be able
Speaker 1: to do it unless you have the biggest brands. And
Speaker 1: there's some crappy TV football games on which you know,
Speaker 1: it's Thursday night on Amazon. Those games are usually pretty dull.
Speaker 1: But I don't think it's necessarily a problem that wildcard
Speaker 1: teams win. I think it's the reality of baseball, that
Speaker 1: it's an everyday sport. The Dodgers offense dried up, the
Speaker 1: Braves offense dried up. Okay, But if you're really honest
Speaker 1: about it is that season baseball is a different experience
Speaker 1: entirely in a different sport than regular season baseball. So
Speaker 1: you know, regular season baseball is a marathon, it's a triathlon,
Speaker 1: and the postseason is about getting a hit, getting a stop,
Speaker 1: getting an out. You'll bring a star pitcher out of
Speaker 1: the bullpen to get an out and get a win.
Speaker 1: If you want to seal a series, or you have
Speaker 1: a weaker pitcher going the next night against their superior pitcher.
Speaker 1: You need outs. You need to create momentum. Now you
Speaker 1: need urgency. That's not the regular season. So you know,
Speaker 1: I just think analytics are true, and they work in
Speaker 1: both the NBA and baseball, and they're and they're smart.
Speaker 1: But postseason baseball is completely different, and the NBA playoffs
Speaker 1: are different. Sometimes you just need a bucket, you need
Speaker 1: a mid range jumper. So you know, I use the
Speaker 1: analogy today that when you take your kids in a
Speaker 1: five or six hour drive, same kids, same car, it's
Speaker 1: different than taking a nine minute drive to school. Right,
Speaker 1: it's a different sensibility and a different strategy with young
Speaker 1: kids in a car for six hours, and so you know,
Speaker 1: same kids, same car. You know, same teams, same players,
Speaker 1: same manager, different strategy in the postseason. So the time
Speaker 1: off I think can be problematic for favored teams. And
Speaker 1: you know the Dodgors didn't you know, they had a
Speaker 1: domestic issue with a pitcher, domestic violence issue with the pitcher,
Speaker 1: Kershaw's age and injuries, so they didn't really have a
Speaker 1: true ace. And Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betch just didn't hit,
Speaker 1: which is it's harder to hit in the postseason. It's
Speaker 1: superior pitching, more pressure, So golf and baseball are that
Speaker 1: way bigger the tournament, more pressure, those putts get harder,
Speaker 1: So listen. I can't wait to watch the Phillies. I
Speaker 1: think they're a great team, and I think Bryce Harper
Speaker 1: is the biggest star remaining in the sport. So I
Speaker 1: do not think it's terrible news for Major League Baseball.
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Speaker 1: The crown is yours all right. Chad Millman had a
Speaker 1: great week. We had a great week five and oh
Speaker 1: off our four and one week hit nine of ten
Speaker 1: sharper square. Chad, of course, the CEO of the Action Network.
Speaker 1: All of our odds are provided by DraftKings. As a
Speaker 1: hard working mason, one brick at a time, not gonna
Speaker 1: get cocky, no reason to get over confident. I have
Speaker 1: an zero to five and a five and oh, and
Speaker 1: we're only five weeks into the season, so take a
Speaker 1: deep breath. There are there are some trends though I
Speaker 1: see are you ready to hear them?
Speaker 2: I can't wait. This is gonna be good.
Speaker 1: So I tend to be like Warren Buffett of value seeker, right,
Speaker 1: I tend to take points. But I went back and
Speaker 1: look at why I was struggling in the first two weeks,
Speaker 1: and then I made a little switch. As the league's
Speaker 1: become more quarterback centric, I was taking off in the
Speaker 1: second best quarterback in games though I was getting value.
Speaker 1: So I said, listen, it's becoming more quarterback centric, so
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna do that. I'm gonna seek value but
Speaker 1: not be afraid to take some fit. So I'm gonna
Speaker 1: start with some favorites. So I'm not getting the best line.
Speaker 1: But if you watch the raven Steelers play, Baltimore was
Speaker 1: a much better team two drop touchdown passes. Lamar Jackson
Speaker 1: is having a spectacular season. Dropped passes are like fumbles
Speaker 1: and fumble recoveries. They go in spurts. Baltimore is a
Speaker 1: really good team getting healthier. I don't think Tennessee is
Speaker 1: it's four and a half. I'd like it four. It
Speaker 1: is what it is. I get the much more dynamic quarterback.
Speaker 1: I also get a great coach, no coaching disadvantage. The
Speaker 1: rabel Baltimore minus four and a half Sharper square.
Speaker 3: Well, it's square, but but it's not square like some
Speaker 3: of your other square picks. Yeah, this is sort of
Speaker 3: square in the sense that wise guys are taking the
Speaker 3: Titans because of the number and nothing else. Your logic
Speaker 3: is sound. The conversations I had today were exactly what
Speaker 3: you just said. The Ravens actually played really well last week.
Speaker 3: Zay Flowers dropped the pass that was wide open, like
Speaker 3: there were there were three or four spots where that
Speaker 3: game was over if the Ravens receivers catch a pass
Speaker 3: open open, like wide open, wide open, and so it was.
Speaker 3: It was a very fluky, fluky game. Right, Like in
Speaker 3: what universe right now should Kenny Pickett and the Pittsburgh
Speaker 3: Steelers be tied with the Baltimore Ravens for first place
Speaker 3: in the AFC North right? So your your logic is sound,
Speaker 3: and it's why a lot of wise guys have had
Speaker 3: a hard time with this game. It opened at five
Speaker 3: and a half, got that down to five, got to
Speaker 3: four and a half, got down to four. When it
Speaker 3: got to four, that was sort of the breaking point,
Speaker 3: and people started betting on the Ravens again. The challenge
Speaker 3: here that I think is screwing a lot of people
Speaker 3: up is the fact that it's a London game, and
Speaker 3: if it was, if it wasn't a London game, you'd
Speaker 3: have Vrabel as more than a field goal underdog. And
Speaker 3: there are a few coaches in the NFL who wise
Speaker 3: guys will automatically bet if they're underdogs. Vrabel is one
Speaker 3: of them. Mike Tomlin is one of them. John Harbaugh
Speaker 3: is one of them.
Speaker 2: Right.
Speaker 3: The flip side is that John Harbaugh is not very
Speaker 3: good as a favorite, and Lamar is actually terrible as
Speaker 3: a favorite. So I think the wise guys are trying
Speaker 3: to figure out what do I think of the London
Speaker 3: factor in all this, and it's scaring them a little bit.
Speaker 2: But they're taking the Titans another favorite.
Speaker 1: You know, I love the number four. It's one thing
Speaker 1: value is on the Colts. But to take Gardner Minshew.
Speaker 1: Backup quarterbacks on the road are different than spunky backups
Speaker 1: at home in a dome. I don't buy the Jags.
Speaker 1: We're in London two weeks, they'll come home, they'll be flat.
Speaker 1: They're playing very well. They like Baltimore are undervalue due
Speaker 1: to a series of ridiculous drops in the first three weeks.
Speaker 1: They handled a Buffalo team that we loved three days earlier.
Speaker 1: I'm taking the Jags minus four Sharper square.
Speaker 3: Wow, that one is very square, and there is no
Speaker 3: sort of equivocation from professional betters on this one. This
Speaker 3: line opened significantly higher and has been bet down.
Speaker 2: There's a couple of things going on here.
Speaker 3: Number One, Doug Peterson historically is very good against the
Speaker 3: spread in the second half of the year, but not
Speaker 3: in the first half of the year. Number two, specifically
Speaker 3: to what you just said about the Jags beating the Bills,
Speaker 3: who we loved, right, The Jags in that game lost
Speaker 3: a Pro Bowl caliber cornerback and a Pro Bow caliber linebacker,
Speaker 3: and yet at the end of the game Josh Allen
Speaker 3: miraculously nearly led the Bills back to a win against
Speaker 3: the Jags.
Speaker 2: Number one.
Speaker 3: Number two teams coming back from London without the buy,
Speaker 3: and this applies to both Bills this week against the
Speaker 3: Giants and the Jags historically struggle during the game, and
Speaker 3: those games tend to be very very close that they
Speaker 3: are either trailing or tied in the fourth quarter. Historically,
Speaker 3: teams that come back without a buy from London. So
Speaker 3: we're looking at a close game historically, and the Colts,
Speaker 3: their offensive line is just much much better than it
Speaker 3: has been the past couple of years. Defensively, they have
Speaker 3: the leading tackler in the NFL. Jonathan Taylor has come
Speaker 3: back to run behind that offensive line against the Jags
Speaker 3: defense that is just not very good, right, And so
Speaker 3: the wise guys here they're not agreeing with you.
Speaker 1: Colin one more favorite. I like the number at two
Speaker 1: and a half. It'll probably be three in most areas.
Speaker 1: Bengals minus two and a half hosting Seattle, so well,
Speaker 1: Seattle has extra time. I value extra time differently with
Speaker 1: offensive coaches who bring more tricks Andy Reid, McVeigh, Shanahan
Speaker 1: than I do defensive coaches who are largely motivators. They
Speaker 1: give guys rest, they want healthy defensive guys. I don't
Speaker 1: look at Pete Carroll, Tomlin Belichick extra at rest like
Speaker 1: I do Andy Reid or McVeagh. So I get a
Speaker 1: more rested Seattle team, but I get a significantly better
Speaker 1: quarterback who now is healthy. So the Bengals for three
Speaker 1: straight years have been a lousy September early October team
Speaker 1: why Earl had two surgeries and a calf injury. It's
Speaker 1: about this time Cincinnati hits. These games are also urgent
Speaker 1: for them, so they play with great urgency early in
Speaker 1: this division. That's good. Minus two and a half, I
Speaker 1: think it's a great number. Minus three, I'd still bet
Speaker 1: at three and a half. I move off at sharper.
Speaker 2: Square at two and a half, at sharp at three.
Speaker 2: It's not.
Speaker 3: So it's really this is about the number, and you know,
Speaker 3: to use a football metaphor, it's a fifty to fifty ball, right.
Speaker 3: It's really about how much do you believe in Joe Burrow?
Speaker 3: And a lot of professional betters believe that what they
Speaker 3: saw with last week, what they saw last week with
Speaker 3: Joe Burrow is that he's better. And part of it is, Hey,
Speaker 3: every year the Bengals starts slow, he's injured, he takes
Speaker 3: time to get his timing. Jamar Chase the past two
Speaker 3: weeks has basically against the Rams and then against the
Speaker 3: Cardinals has basically had a season's worth of receptions and
Speaker 3: receiving yards, like he's really found his rhythm with Joe
Speaker 3: Burrow again. And what the wise guys liked about Joe
Speaker 3: Burrow last week. It's not the fact that they beat
Speaker 3: the Cardinals, who probably are a team that has been
Speaker 3: overperforming regardless, and kudos to their coaching staff for getting
Speaker 3: so much out of that talent, But it was the
Speaker 3: way Joe Burrow was able to move into the pocket.
Speaker 3: He was able to get around offenders, maintain his stance,
Speaker 3: step into throws, find his timing with Jamar Chase. That's
Speaker 3: what they like about it. I mean, I'm sure you
Speaker 3: and Cosell probably talked about this on the show this week.
Speaker 3: But that's why they're betting on the Bengals a two
Speaker 3: and a half, and they do feel if they had
Speaker 3: looked a little bit better one week earlier, they might
Speaker 3: be getting the Bengals and minus fours. So there's about
Speaker 3: a point and a half of value. But at three,
Speaker 3: they buy back the Seahawks or they pass the market.
Speaker 1: Sometimes is a week late. I just think they're a
Speaker 1: week late on Cincinnati. I think they're by the end
Speaker 1: of this game, they'll catch up to Cincinnati. So let's
Speaker 1: go to underdogs. So the Rams lost to the Eagles,
Speaker 1: but if you watch the game, it wasn't close. When
Speaker 1: you play Philadelphia and your defense is on the field
Speaker 1: for forty minutes. That team that will have repercussions this week.
Speaker 1: I don't love Arizona, but at plus seven six and
Speaker 1: a half, the stadium is not a home field advantage.
Speaker 1: Numbers came out this week showing that home field is
Speaker 1: now down to one and a half points. Well, the
Speaker 1: Rams is less than that, so it's really do I
Speaker 1: think a Rams team off a Philadelphia game in which
Speaker 1: they got beat up physically. I don't like teams that
Speaker 1: play the next week after they play the Niners or
Speaker 1: the Eagles in the NFC. The seven here, the six
Speaker 1: and a half is screaming Arizona for the record division
Speaker 1: rive game. Arizona played San Francisco tougher than you'd expect.
Speaker 1: I'm going to take the point sharper square.
Speaker 3: Yeah, the Cardinals are a real conundrum for better this year,
Speaker 3: as have the Rams been a conundrum for betters this year.
Speaker 3: Because the Cardinals everyone expected them to be the worst
Speaker 3: team in the league, and certainly there was a lot
Speaker 3: of mocking of Jonathan Gannon before the season began with
Speaker 3: his social interactions with his players, right that sort of
Speaker 3: became a meme on social media and what you've seen
Speaker 3: with the Cardinals and what you've seen with the Colts,
Speaker 3: and a byproduct of this is what you've seen with
Speaker 3: the Eagles is how good Gannon has been and putting
Speaker 3: his pilayers in a position to succeed, making the right
Speaker 3: play calls that give them confidence in high risk situations
Speaker 3: that put them in a better position statistically to win.
Speaker 3: Shaan Stikeen's done the same exact thing with the Colts,
Speaker 3: which is why professional betters are liking the Colts and
Speaker 3: not so worried about Gardner Minshew. You've also seen with
Speaker 3: the Eagles the lack of those two guys has had
Speaker 3: an impact on how they play on defense and how
Speaker 3: they play on offense, which is a testament to how
Speaker 3: good they were.
Speaker 2: Right.
Speaker 3: The Rams meanwhile, and I'm equivocating a little bit here,
Speaker 3: The Rams meanwhile have been great against the spread until
Speaker 3: this past week. So the wise guys have come in
Speaker 3: on the Rams because this number has gone up. But
Speaker 3: there's not a ton of confidence on this game. It's
Speaker 3: not a game where I've got my phone blowing up
Speaker 3: and people are saying, oh my god, I love the
Speaker 3: Cardinals here, or oh my god, the Rams are exact
Speaker 3: the right spot. It's sort of like you took the
Speaker 3: Rams at six and a half. It's at seven. We're
Speaker 3: going to kind of pass from here.
Speaker 1: I want to take Chica.
Speaker 3: I do think I will say one more thing like Colin.
Speaker 3: I think people thought the Cardinals were at the top
Speaker 3: of the market after the Cowboys, and they've done everything
Speaker 3: they can do with the talent they have. Josh Jobbs
Speaker 3: was not as good last week. They've been a little
Speaker 3: bit exposed. There's only so much coaching that you can
Speaker 3: do when your talent isn't a part.
Speaker 1: So I'm going to take Chicago Extra Rest plus two
Speaker 1: and a half. I think it's a locker room game.
Speaker 1: Justin Jefferson's out trade rumors Kirk Cousins. The white flag
Speaker 1: is up inside the locker room. Players are now playing
Speaker 1: just to be capable on film of not getting called
Speaker 1: out on Monday. Chicago feels like we found the magic potion.
Speaker 1: Chicago has an energized locker room. Justin Fields is playing
Speaker 1: to retain his position, and Kayleb Williams not yet drafted.
Speaker 1: This is an energized team at home. Extra Rest found
Speaker 1: their magic. I think you're going to get a Minnesota
Speaker 1: team that I think the messaging is waving the white flag.
Speaker 1: I take the Bears. I love it. At three two
Speaker 1: and a half, I still like it.
Speaker 3: Sharper square, Yeah, that's sharp whise. Guys like the Bears here.
Speaker 3: It's why it's been bet down. It was at three,
Speaker 3: it went down to two and a half. It's a
Speaker 3: fascinating game, and in a lot of weeks you probably
Speaker 3: want to play the Vikings because of this situation they
Speaker 3: just found themselves in and the situation the Bears found
Speaker 3: themselves in, which was winning in prime time. So bookmakers
Speaker 3: will automatically inflate their line, right, they would be a
Speaker 3: little bit higher than they normally would because they think
Speaker 3: the public is going to come in on a team
Speaker 3: that just dominated in primetime. What's interesting here is a
Speaker 3: lot of what you just said about the Vikings. They
Speaker 3: might be the better team, but strategically they have not
Speaker 3: been making the right calls on defense. This is a
Speaker 3: team that is blitzing at an extraordinary rate, one of
Speaker 3: the highest blitz rates in the NFL, with the least
Speaker 3: amount of success. Right, so they're getting to the quarterback
Speaker 3: on blitzes half the amount of time as other teams
Speaker 3: in the NFL, even though they're running so many more blitzes.
Speaker 3: I do think that plays a little bit to the
Speaker 3: Bears advantage with the way they're starting to use Justin
Speaker 3: Fields as a runner a little bit more. And also
Speaker 3: DJ Moore and him have started to click. And if
Speaker 3: you look pat, if you look back, one of the
Speaker 3: reasons people were so excited about the Bears this year
Speaker 3: is because Justin Fields, who had been developing, got a
Speaker 3: number one receiver in DJ. Number one receivers make young
Speaker 3: quarterbacks better. Their catch radius is better, they get fifty
Speaker 3: to fifty balls more often. They make young quarterbacks more
Speaker 3: accurate and more confident. You saw it when Stefon Diggs
Speaker 3: joined the Bills and Josh Allen. You saw it when
Speaker 3: AJ Brown joined Jalen Hurtz. We hadn't seen that with
Speaker 3: the Bears the first three weeks. We have seen it
Speaker 3: in the past two weeks, where Justin Fields and DJ
Speaker 3: Moore have been lights out. I think this is a
Speaker 3: really good spot. The Vikings secondary is not very good,
Speaker 3: and if they are blitzing, then that gives Justin Fields
Speaker 3: an opportunity to get Dj Moore in advantageous situations.
Speaker 1: So generally I would love the Cowboys, big brand, capable
Speaker 1: quarterback rebound game. Vander Rush is now out, Trayvon Diggs
Speaker 1: out for the year. It's not the same defense. Also,
Speaker 1: they played the Niners, got buried. The one thing the
Speaker 1: Chargers are struggling with is situational short yardage gains. Fourth
Speaker 1: and one, third and two. Here comes their chess piece,
Speaker 1: Austin Eckler, who unless you watch the Chargers, you have
Speaker 1: no idea how valuable he is. Don't tell me. Running
Speaker 1: backs don't matter. They're not a good fourth and one,
Speaker 1: third and two team without Austin Eckler. They will lean
Speaker 1: heavy on him. Keenan Allen Eckler, Gerald Everett significantly better
Speaker 1: quarterback and a Chargers team where Kellen Moore. The Chargers
Speaker 1: have gone from a bad second half offense to a
Speaker 1: great one, a bad red zone team to a great one.
Speaker 1: The Cowboys reverse all those. It's the Kellen Moore factor.
Speaker 1: It's a show off game with an extra data prep.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna take the points and the Chargers sharper square
Speaker 1: two and.
Speaker 2: A half, totally sharp.
Speaker 3: The line has moved from two and a half down
Speaker 3: to two at a lot of places because of the wise
Speaker 3: guy money because specifically of what you just said, Kellen
Speaker 3: Moore is the difference here right that he has been
Speaker 3: making this a much better offense. Brandon Staley, like as
Speaker 3: much as he wants to get in the way and
Speaker 3: make bad decisions for this team, Kellen Moore is trying
Speaker 3: to for him out of that habit, and Justin Herbert
Speaker 3: is lights out right now. Like when he comes back.
Speaker 3: I had him a twenty five to one to lead
Speaker 3: the league in passing yards this year, and I think
Speaker 3: he's gonna go on a hot streak right now, starting
Speaker 3: with this game against the Cowboys. Who look, we talked
Speaker 3: about this last week. I hated the Cowboys last week.
Speaker 3: I'm not a buyer on Dak Prescott. I'm not a buyer.
Speaker 3: And Mike McCarthy the Niners were probably my second biggest
Speaker 3: bet of the year. I got a little bit over
Speaker 3: extended on the Steelers last week, but it worked out
Speaker 3: okay for me. But I just think Mike McCarthy he
Speaker 3: had the benefit of Aaron Rodgers and still didn't do
Speaker 3: everything he could have done with Aaron Rodgers. The Cowboys
Speaker 3: are in bad shape wise, guys.
Speaker 1: Like the Chargers, right, there's always a game. I ask
Speaker 1: you about because I am interested. So I thought Niners
Speaker 1: minus four and a half was to play now at seven.
Speaker 1: If it's a backup quarterback against who with little prep
Speaker 1: time against this defense, this defense may not be as
Speaker 1: good in the red zone as they were a year ago.
Speaker 1: It's hard to get in the red zone. You're giving
Speaker 1: me a backup if Deshaun doesn't play. I don't care
Speaker 1: what the number is. Again, I usually fade teams in
Speaker 1: dominating wins. This team is playing after losing to Philadelphia.
Speaker 1: They're playing to go seventeen to zero. They are physically
Speaker 1: mauling teams early. Backups trailing are not going to move
Speaker 1: the ball in this defense. I didn't put it in there.
Speaker 1: I could be talked into it. Where are the wise guys?
Speaker 2: Well, looks at seven?
Speaker 3: The wise guys are in Cleveland, right, there's just new
Speaker 3: two ways about it.
Speaker 2: And at the game was at.
Speaker 3: Three, I know, and the wise guys last week started
Speaker 3: betting the Niners and betting the nine and betting the
Speaker 3: Niners because there was the rumor about Deshaun Watson seven
Speaker 3: seven and a half, eight, which it may get to
Speaker 3: because the public is just going to keep pounding the
Speaker 3: Niners until this kickoff. The wise guys are going to
Speaker 3: be in the Browns because while the Niners have a
Speaker 3: great defense, the Browns have an historically great defense. Six
Speaker 3: red zone possessions in four games so far this year.
Speaker 3: They act like they can win games by themselves. Remember
Speaker 3: the eighty five Bears. Ye like they would get on
Speaker 3: the field, it didn't matter what their offense was, they
Speaker 3: would get on the field, and you would assume, all right,
Speaker 3: the Barrels will just score two touchdowns on defense, Like
Speaker 3: that's what the Browns can do, and you are getting
Speaker 3: the Niners right now. Look, Rock Purdy is seven to
Speaker 3: one to be MVP because he threw four touchdown passes
Speaker 3: against the Dallas Cowboys, and the Dallas Cowboys who did
Speaker 3: not have their best cornerback playing for them anymore. So,
Speaker 3: this guy brock perty looks like a brilliant, brilliant quarterback,
Speaker 3: and I think he is. But is he going to
Speaker 3: look that good against a Browns defense that is as
Speaker 3: good as they are from front to back. He's not
Speaker 3: playing the Cowboys secondary. He's playing Jim Schwartz defense that
Speaker 3: is going to be incredibly aggressive and by the way,
Speaker 3: that has dominated in scenarios like this against Kyle Shanahan.
Speaker 2: So seven's a lot, Colin.
Speaker 3: I know it's ugly, but this could be an ugly
Speaker 3: game whether it's supposed to be bad throughout the Midwest.
Speaker 2: I'm taking the seven.
Speaker 1: And finally talk me into an ugly game, talk me
Speaker 1: into something I haven't touched.
Speaker 2: I didn't just do that with the Browns.
Speaker 1: Oh, I know that was give me another.
Speaker 3: Like, come on, be with me on the Browns, Colin,
Speaker 3: be with me.
Speaker 2: It's hard, be my buddy.
Speaker 1: I can't. Then, what what about Houston Saints?
Speaker 2: This is an interesting game.
Speaker 3: The public has been coming in on the Texans to
Speaker 3: the point where it's been bet down to the Saints
Speaker 3: or minus one. The wise guys are going to bet
Speaker 3: the Saints in this game, like they actually can't believe
Speaker 3: they're able to get the Saints at minus one.
Speaker 2: There will be regression with CJ. Shroud. You started to
Speaker 2: see a little bit of it last week.
Speaker 3: He was brilliant at the end of the game with
Speaker 3: that drive that put them ahead in the final two minutes,
Speaker 3: but throughout the game there were some moments where he
Speaker 3: made some really bad passes that should have been intercepted
Speaker 3: by a Falcons defense that is not nearly as good
Speaker 3: as the Saints, and that is one thing the Saints
Speaker 3: have been doing really well this year. I'm not a
Speaker 3: Dennis Allen fan. I don't know why anyone would hire
Speaker 3: Deniz Allen to be a head coach. But he's a
Speaker 3: very good defensive coordinator, and he's got that defense playing
Speaker 3: at a really high level right now.
Speaker 2: So I like the Saints in that game.
Speaker 3: Two games we haven't discussed that I think are pretty gross,
Speaker 3: and i'd like you to consider. Remember I'm seventeen and
Speaker 3: three the past two weeks. Colin, all right, I want
Speaker 3: you to be with me on this train. Can I
Speaker 3: interest you in the New England Patriots plus three plus
Speaker 3: three and a half against the Las Vegas Raider.
Speaker 1: Nope, not going to listen. Go to the next one.
Speaker 1: Will not listen. I'm not listening. I refuse to listen.
Speaker 1: Why listen? It's like somebody that says, trust me, you'll
Speaker 1: love radiohead. Let's go to the concert.
Speaker 3: Can I what about the what about the Tampa Bay
Speaker 3: Okay buccaneer?
Speaker 2: Yes, plus three plus three and a half against the lines.
Speaker 1: Plus three and a half Tampa's de side. I could
Speaker 1: be talked into that because that was one of the
Speaker 1: games I have here on my list that I didn't do.
Speaker 1: Tampa plus three and a half. Detroit comes off a
Speaker 1: big win. The world loves Detroit. Carolina is really bad,
Speaker 1: and actually Tampa Bay at home is pretty good.
Speaker 3: Yeah, and Baker, Look, there is some question about right
Speaker 3: now about Mike Evans because he is still a little
Speaker 3: bit injured. But a couple of things have changed for
Speaker 3: Baker Mayfield. You might notice in watching these Bucks games,
Speaker 3: and I've been fading the Bucks and so like, I've
Speaker 3: had to pay attention to them because my rating on
Speaker 3: them is changing a little bit. He's not making the
Speaker 3: enormous amount of Baker mistakes that he's made in the past. Right,
Speaker 3: he seems to have learned something in his travels from
Speaker 3: Cleveland to Carolina to la Certainly Sean McVay put something
Speaker 3: in his ear that made him realize he's making the
Speaker 3: same mistakes over and over when it comes to risk taking.
Speaker 3: And I also think you naturally are better when you
Speaker 3: have Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. He's never had receivers
Speaker 3: like this, so I think there's a big opportunity here
Speaker 3: to buy a little bit lower on the bucks and
Speaker 3: sell way way way high on the lines. Like look,
Speaker 3: Jared Goff, most profitable quarterback against the spread the past
Speaker 3: five years in the NFL. But he's a much different
Speaker 3: quarterback when he's in a dome than he is on
Speaker 3: the road. And he's under five hundred against the spread
Speaker 3: on the road. People love the lines right now, they're dominating,
Speaker 3: but this is a tough.
Speaker 1: Spot, right Yeah, I'm not going to listen to the Patriots.
Speaker 2: How about the Jets plus seven against the Eagles.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think Philadelphia has found a bit of an identity.
Speaker 1: They're a little banged up. I think my concern about
Speaker 1: Philadelphia I looked at that. I think my concern about
Speaker 1: Philadelphia is on the road again, don't really have their identity.
Speaker 1: And I don't think Jalen's quite Jalen. I do think
Speaker 1: Shane steik and I think he's trying that he's riding himself,
Speaker 1: but he's made some mistakes. He's made about two bad throws.
Speaker 1: And I think against the Rams you can get away
Speaker 1: with it. I don't think you can get away with
Speaker 1: it with the Jets. And the number seven, isn't it
Speaker 1: six and a half or seven? Yeah, big that I
Speaker 1: could be talked into that. That's a pretty interesting I
Speaker 1: looked at that game. I wonder if I would be
Speaker 1: buying top of the Zach Wilson market or is this
Speaker 1: the new Zach. But I will say this, Jalen's great.
Speaker 1: He's a top seven guy in the league. But it
Speaker 1: doesn't quite look the same as last year.
Speaker 3: No. And so my feeling on the Eagles, and I
Speaker 3: might have said this to you last week, is that
Speaker 3: they've got a I actually think they'll represent the NFC
Speaker 3: in the Super Bowl. And I think their defense when healthy,
Speaker 3: is as competitive as the Niners. I love their offense,
Speaker 3: like I think that they remind me of the Patriots
Speaker 3: circa twenty ten to fifteen, where they might not get
Speaker 3: it all right early in the year, but their coaching
Speaker 3: is so good, their play calling is so good, and
Speaker 3: the players are so confident that they can fix it
Speaker 3: while they're playing. They can change the wheels on the
Speaker 3: truck in real time. But that doesn't mean they're going
Speaker 3: to cover every week, and we've seen that. We've seen
Speaker 3: that against Washington, We've seen that in certain scenarios. So
Speaker 3: this to me feels like a spot on the road
Speaker 3: against a really good defense against a team that clearly
Speaker 3: has a lot of spirit and a lot of pride.
Speaker 3: I don't know if it's Zach Wilson thing like the
Speaker 3: he is playing better clearly and against the defensive backfield
Speaker 3: for the Eagles that are struggling and injured.
Speaker 2: But I like seven.
Speaker 3: I feel like we should do sort of an an
Speaker 3: alterna blazing five, like the blazing five that you're gonna
Speaker 3: end up doing that is full of your favorites, and
Speaker 3: you know you've convinced yourself that you can't bet ugly teams,
Speaker 3: and then the blaze and five that is the teams
Speaker 3: that make you absolutely afraid. Like Bettan the Patriots betting,
Speaker 3: the Browns bet and the Jets.
Speaker 1: No Jets, Jets isn't. I'm not afraid to bet the Jets.
Speaker 1: I think if the number goes, if I could get seven,
Speaker 1: I think it's a really solid bet. I think it
Speaker 1: listen the bet. I like that. The guy wise guys don't.
Speaker 1: And I'll just say I like the Ravens who were
Speaker 1: so embarrassed about how they had played last time they
Speaker 1: were on London. They spent the off season preparing for this.
Speaker 1: I think I'm getting value at minus four. I don't
Speaker 1: think Tennessee's very good. I really don't, and I don't
Speaker 1: even think I think you're betting on Vaybel, but I
Speaker 1: think that's muted somewhat by Harball. And so by the way,
Speaker 1: Tennessee leaving late every Thursday in London game everyone one
Speaker 1: team isn't ready to go Buffalo Commanders every You don't
Speaker 1: ever get two teams in London and you're like, that's
Speaker 1: the best they've played in years. You don't get Thursday games.
Speaker 1: Bears ready, Washington came out of overtime against Arrival. If
Speaker 1: you're telling me one team's gonna click, I'm going to
Speaker 1: be the team that got there thirty six hours earlier,
Speaker 1: undervalued by the market, and I get a superstar quarterback
Speaker 1: against the quarterback the other team keeps drafting quarterbacks to
Speaker 1: replace him, and he's just better than those bad guys.
Speaker 2: I like that.
Speaker 3: Yeah, but right now, you're not convincing me of a
Speaker 3: game that I'm overly confident in. Like I agree with
Speaker 3: everything you're saying. It's like I'm playing the number. That's
Speaker 3: all I'm doing is playing the number right. It's it
Speaker 3: could be right, it could be wrong, and for the
Speaker 3: wise guys. This is one of those fifty to fifty balls, right.
Speaker 3: That's why it's why the number went from four and
Speaker 3: a half to four and has gone back up to
Speaker 3: four and a half like it's because there's there's sentiment
Speaker 3: on both sides.
Speaker 2: What I'm telling you is.
Speaker 3: Go big, go Browns, Go Patriots, Go Panther, Go Giants,
Speaker 3: go go go Jets.
Speaker 2: Have some fun with it.
Speaker 1: There's no such thing as fun. My life is masonry.
Speaker 1: I've never had any fun in my life except hanging
Speaker 1: out with Oh my god, my wife is a struggle.
Speaker 2: That.
Speaker 3: That is the biggest lie I've ever heard anyone say
Speaker 3: about themselves.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I have some fun. I gotta be honest. I
Speaker 1: do have a lot of fun. I got a fun.
Speaker 3: Number of times I've gotten calls from you. I don't
Speaker 3: even know from where. Hey, Milman, check out this view.
Speaker 3: It's amazing.
Speaker 1: Whatever, All right, Chad Millman, Action Network c COEO. All
Speaker 1: lawns provided by Draft Kings. Good luck, my friend, dear brother.
Speaker 1: The volume