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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BED three

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Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Volume podcast Network.

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Speaker 1: I am Chad Millman of the Action Network. Today is

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Speaker 1: our Tuesday, Week eight episode where we break down the

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Speaker 1: entire slate of NFL games. We will discuss our execu decision,

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Speaker 1: our Simon says, start to narrow down the options for

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Speaker 1: our five faves to put in the Favorites podcast one

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Speaker 1: hundred thousand dollars Pro Football Pickam Contest two and three

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Speaker 1: this past week. Once again, we won by betting on

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Speaker 1: the best teams with the best quarterbacks i e. Jared

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Speaker 1: Goff and Patrick Mahomes. We lost by betting on bad

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Speaker 1: team by a bad team in a trendy spot, and

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Speaker 1: by betting against a good defense in a train spot.

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Speaker 1: Lots of lessons, so many. In fact, my co host

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Speaker 1: is going to love this. I spent part of yesterday

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Speaker 1: categorizing our losses to see if I could find a

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Speaker 1: pattern in our decision making. And I did. I did.

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Speaker 1: I'm excited to share it live from our Tommy John

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Speaker 1: Home studios. I'm joined as always by my co host,

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Speaker 1: my companion, my compadre, my BFF professional Better So I'm

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Speaker 1: in Hunter.

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Speaker 2: Hello, So I'm in gonna save you so much time chat.

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Speaker 2: It's pretty simple.

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Speaker 3: We like home dogs, and the home dogs have been

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Speaker 3: getting killed. I mean, I think any bookmaker you talk to,

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Speaker 3: this has been what the worst two week run they've

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Speaker 3: had since legalization. I mean, every chalk favorites winning. So,

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Speaker 3: like I always say, it's we're barely keeping our head

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Speaker 3: above water. Right now, we are drowning, but we're avoiding

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Speaker 3: these zero to five weeks, which I am terrified of

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Speaker 3: because we never had one. And yeah, yeah, we luckily

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Speaker 3: have bet some chalk and that's what's winning. And we

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Speaker 3: talked about the smart sides we take, missing field goals, turnovers, refs,

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Speaker 3: all of it is not bouncing our way, and it'll turn.

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Speaker 3: Like I always say, we can't change what we do

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Speaker 3: check because once we change, it's going to go the

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Speaker 3: other way.

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Speaker 2: So, yeah, if you've.

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Speaker 3: Been taking these ugly dogs with us, have faith. This

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Speaker 3: is year six. We've never had a losing season. The

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Speaker 3: ugly dogs will come through. We're just in a little

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Speaker 3: bit of a rough patch.

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Speaker 1: Well last night was another example. Right, we had the

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Speaker 1: box at plus three and a half. They start out

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Speaker 1: to nothing. They have a touchdown called back because of holding.

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Speaker 1: They have Mike Evans, one of the greatest receivers of

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Speaker 1: all time, drop a touchdown that is in his hands

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Speaker 1: in the end zone. Then Baker throws a pick, then

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Speaker 1: they miss a field goal. Next thing you know, it's

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Speaker 1: thirty four to ten. And even when that happened, like,

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Speaker 1: I made notes in my phone like that, I was

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Speaker 1: going to text you and and I just didn't. I'm like,

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Speaker 1: you cannot win a game if you're giving up seventeen

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Speaker 1: points in the first half, right, meaning you're giving away

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Speaker 1: seventeen points. And yet the reason we bet that game

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Speaker 1: last night is because we truly believed the Bucks would

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Speaker 1: always be in it and have a chance to back door.

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Speaker 1: Because the Ravens, by the way, have given up the

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Speaker 1: most points in the NFL in the second half this year.

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Speaker 1: That trend continued yesterday. There's one other team that's actually

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Speaker 1: tied with them fifteen point seven points per game. We're

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Speaker 1: going to talk about it. As you mentioned, Simon, road

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Speaker 1: favorites since Week five are sixteen and two. Geez, yeah,

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Speaker 1: Like we cannot win if road favorites dominated, because all

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Speaker 1: we do is bet ugly home dogs. Our results on

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Speaker 1: that trend. By the way, from this past week. We

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Speaker 1: bet against the Bengals, who covered. We bet against the Eagles,

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Speaker 1: who covered. We bet against the Ravens, who, of course

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Speaker 1: the one the one road favorite. We bet on New

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Speaker 1: York Jets. They did not win. Overall road teams sixty

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Speaker 1: one percent against the spread this season. That's the second

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Speaker 1: best win percentage through seven weeks in the wild Card Era.

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Speaker 1: In a moment, we'll recap the results of week seven

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Speaker 1: in our contest, will announce the winner of our big

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Speaker 1: weekly cash prize. If you haven't yet, be sure to

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Speaker 1: sign up for the Free Favorites podcast one hundred thousand

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Speaker 1: dollars Pro Football Pick Them contest presented by Bet three

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Speaker 1: sixty five. Just visit Favorites dot actionnetwork dot com. As

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Speaker 1: a reminder, the Favorite podcast is presented by Bet three

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Speaker 1: six five and now new Bet three sixty five. Customers

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Speaker 1: on spreads, totals, player props, futures and more. Whatever the moment,

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Speaker 1: It's never ordinary. At bet three sixty five. Must be

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Speaker 1: twenty one or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,

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Speaker 1: North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia or eighteen and

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Speaker 1: older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler

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Speaker 1: or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa terms Conditions

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Speaker 1: restrictions apply. Contest recap Real Fast Congratulations. First place winner

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Speaker 1: Brian G two one two. Brian went five and zero

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Speaker 1: nailed the Monday night football tiebreaker. He takes home the

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Speaker 1: max two thousand dollars weekly prize. Well done, Brian. As always,

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Speaker 1: our producer Matt Mitchell has selected his Producer's Cup Award

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Speaker 1: to the entry that finished dead fucking last in the contest.

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Speaker 1: Have you about the loads loser?

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Speaker 2: He's a louis.

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Speaker 3: About he still keeps on.

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Speaker 1: This week. That goes to n L Miller ninety over

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Speaker 1: missed the tiebreaker by three hundred and sixty four yards.

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Speaker 1: L Miller email Matt Mitchell, our producer at podcast at

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Speaker 1: actionnetwork dot com to claim your fries all right week,

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Speaker 1: I said, I did a lot of research on Monday,

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Speaker 1: because it is we're having a weird year, like there

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Speaker 1: is something in the air when it comes to a

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Speaker 1: lot of these bounces, and it's been happening consistently, and

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Speaker 1: it's happening with all of these home dogs that we've

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Speaker 1: been betting on, and it's pretty excruciating. Right. Happened with

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Speaker 1: the Bengals and the Giants a few weeks ago in

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Speaker 1: the Meadowlands. Happened again the next night in the Meadowlands.

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Speaker 1: Happened again with the Bucks in Tampa Bay. So a

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Speaker 1: lot of the games, those the ones that we bet

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Speaker 1: that are ugly with bad qbs as dogs at home

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Speaker 1: teams we believe are undervalued by the market because of

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Speaker 1: underlying metrics. We've just been losing those games. The games

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Speaker 1: we've been winning are ones where we bet on good

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Speaker 1: quarterbacks and good teams who can overcome mistakes. So I

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Speaker 1: broke it down into four categories. You have no idea

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Speaker 1: I did this, So I'm excited to hear your response

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Speaker 1: to this. All right. I broke it down into good

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Speaker 1: teams slash public faves. That's one category of bets that

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Speaker 1: we've made. Bad teams slash good number slash historical trend

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Speaker 1: slash fade the public. That's the second category. Bad beats

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Speaker 1: is the third category, and then good reads, good analysis,

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Speaker 1: you know, good handicapping. The bet you wouldn't expect the

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Speaker 1: public to make, but we make it and it was

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Speaker 1: a good bet. So in the past, Simon, we've crushed

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Speaker 1: with the second category, those bad teams with a good

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Speaker 1: number back in the trend fading the public not surprising.

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Speaker 1: This year we've made the most bets in that category,

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Speaker 1: more than fIF fifty percent of our bets in that category.

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Speaker 1: Guess how many of those games I want to we

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Speaker 1: have won in that category this year.

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Speaker 2: I would say half or maybe less than.

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Speaker 1: How about one?

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Speaker 2: Geez?

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Speaker 1: We are one and sixteen in that category. Geeez? Is

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Speaker 1: that insane?

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Speaker 2: Doesn't even sound real.

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Speaker 1: It's like I have it in a spreadsheet. I'm not

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Speaker 1: even going to share it with you. I went through

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Speaker 1: the action app, I went through every game. I categorized

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Speaker 1: it one and sixteen. Oh my god, it is absurd. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: that tells you everything you to know about why we're struggling.

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Speaker 1: We've actually made the second most bets on the good team,

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Speaker 1: good number public category. We've won seven of those bets.

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Speaker 1: Three of them are on Detroit, two on Green Bay.

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Speaker 1: So that's interesting for today because those were two games

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Speaker 1: for this week we talked about Sunday. We've had six

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Speaker 1: games I would categorize as good reads finding value in

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Speaker 1: a team that is undervalued in the market, and then

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Speaker 1: we've had what I would call six bad beats. So

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Speaker 1: you know that one category is a real outlier and

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Speaker 1: explains everything about our season so far.

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Speaker 3: To this NFL season, though, right like Carolina, they're awful.

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Speaker 3: People thought they'd be awful coming in. They are awful.

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Speaker 3: Patriots people said they'd be awful. They've been awful. They

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Speaker 3: don't cover.

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Speaker 2: They're right on now.

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Speaker 3: In Tennessee Titans, everyone said they'd be awful. They're an

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Speaker 3: awful team. So it is tough. We do like to

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Speaker 3: fade public opinion, and we get a lot of value

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Speaker 3: in the lines on those teams, and that has.

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Speaker 2: Not shown up.

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Speaker 3: I mean that statistically is insane. I can't believe that's

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Speaker 3: a real stat But we said it's going to go

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Speaker 3: the other way. That's the thing. It's like, you can't

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Speaker 3: overreact to it. It's such a long season. It's going

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Speaker 3: to eventually come another way. It's that we can't keep

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Speaker 3: chasing it. Clearly though, like I guess these really bad teams,

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Speaker 3: we got to really take a hard look at it

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Speaker 3: and be like, how bad do we want to bet

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Speaker 3: this bad team here?

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Speaker 1: Yes and so, and now how much do we want

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Speaker 1: to make it part of the five? That's why, by

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Speaker 1: the way, I don't want to give suck.

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Speaker 3: I love some ugly dogs this week, which I know

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Speaker 3: I don't want. I wish you even read me that

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Speaker 3: stack because now it's spooking me a little.

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Speaker 1: It's I don't want to get over intellectual about it

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Speaker 1: because it's just betting. But this is the fun to me,

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Speaker 1: this is the fun. Part of doing this is trying

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Speaker 1: to understand the patterns and understand what are the decisions

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Speaker 1: we're making that are wrong, Like we don't want to lose,

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Speaker 1: We don't want to lose money. We want to win.

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Speaker 1: But it's not throwing darts like there is some analysis

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Speaker 1: that needs to be done. And clearly this year like

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Speaker 1: has been challenging. So if we don't do the underlying analysis,

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Speaker 1: we're not going to change our habits. And I do

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Speaker 1: think I do think I we can thread the needle

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Speaker 1: on this. I think I understand something that we'll talk

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Speaker 1: about that I think will influence some of our decision

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Speaker 1: making as we review these numbers. Have we leaned too

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Speaker 1: hard into trends at the tiebreakers in some of these games?

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Speaker 1: So I do want to I want us to be

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Speaker 1: thinking about that heading into overall. So far I talked,

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Speaker 1: actually I talked about this, the public trends and all

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Speaker 1: that kind of stuff. The one thing I will say

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Speaker 1: the public the past two weeks twenty two zero seven

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Speaker 1: and one against the spread, that is incredible, And teams

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Speaker 1: with sixty six percent or more of the tickets seventeen

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Speaker 1: oh and one, Well, that tells everything right there, because

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Speaker 1: we hate playing those teams. And yet here we are

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Speaker 1: Minnesota at the Los Angeles Rams. Rams are three point

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Speaker 1: dogs at home Thursday night. Lots of reasons to like

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Speaker 1: Minnesota in this spot, like even though it's Stafford, this

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Speaker 1: offensive line is a thirty first and pass block ranking

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Speaker 1: p pff. We know Brian Flores is going to be pressure.

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Speaker 1: Rams are bottom third and pass coverage as well. They

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Speaker 1: don't have a single corner in the top forty of

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Speaker 1: any coverage metrics going against Justin Jefferson home teams thirty

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Speaker 1: seven to fifty five against the spread since twenty nineteen.

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Speaker 1: And then we got the public road faves sixty one

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Speaker 1: percent against the spread the past two seasons.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, this is gonna be pros versus jos. This is

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Speaker 3: going to be the professionals are on the Rams like

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Speaker 3: for a bunch of different reasons. The main one will be,

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Speaker 3: did we just see the blueprint? Chad the Detroit just

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Speaker 3: show everyone how you can attack this Flora's defense if

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Speaker 3: you have a run game, And Gush was a really

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Speaker 3: good run game the Rams. I mean, I think you

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Speaker 3: probably saw Williams had this crazy stat. I think he

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Speaker 3: scored in like nine or ten straight game.

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Speaker 1: Yeah.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, And you know it's the same reason I like them.

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Speaker 3: When they're gonna play a Green Bay. It's like, you

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Speaker 3: can attack Green Bay if you can run the ball

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Speaker 3: like that really dictates the game. Well, they lose by

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Speaker 3: five points in that game. So I have the same

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Speaker 3: view year of this Minnesota team where you know, Sam

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Speaker 3: Darnold probably haven't given enough respect and love. Like you

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Speaker 3: go back and watch that Lions game. You played really

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Speaker 3: well and even on throws that weren't great, he was

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Speaker 3: started to have the best receiver in football and just Jefferson,

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Speaker 3: so like you know, he knows that and it went

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Speaker 3: in doubt when the pressures in his face. Just put

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Speaker 3: the ball up to him and just trust his receiver

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Speaker 3: to make a play. And that's really been the difference

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Speaker 3: of this Vikings offense this year. I mean, they've they've

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Speaker 3: been so good.

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Speaker 2: So I'm with you.

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Speaker 3: I'm very tempted to take Minnesota, especially after the loss,

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Speaker 3: but Cam Jane, Shed's to who I am. Last week I

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Speaker 3: gave out Denver because it was a good number. I

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Speaker 3: think there were two when we talked about it, and

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Speaker 3: it's like, if this was two and a half, I

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Speaker 3: probably would take Minnesota because that's a nice number. But

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Speaker 3: I'll be patient here. Just has to get to three

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Speaker 3: and a half. Who's betting the Rams with me, No

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Speaker 3: one but the Pros. So I'll be patient hopefully get

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Speaker 3: a better number. I might be getting Cooper Cup and

253
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Speaker 3: Puka back this week with the Rams, like they were

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Speaker 3: really smart not to waste them on that Raiders game,

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Speaker 3: just to hold them out for this matchup where I

256
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Speaker 3: just think, I don't know, it's a short week. Minnesota

257
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Speaker 3: played such a tough brutal game against Detroit. It feels

258
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Speaker 3: like a lot to ask them to turn around and

259
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Speaker 3: now go on the road and play this RAMS team

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Speaker 3: that you just said it like, if this was a

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Speaker 3: normal week, I probably would like the Viking. So I

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Speaker 3: think defensively there are things that can attack this RAMS

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Speaker 3: team with but being a short week, if it gets

264
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Speaker 3: up to three and a half chat, I'm probably go

265
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Speaker 3: n end up on this RAMS team.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think at three and a half you do

267
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Speaker 1: take the Rams. I think at three it's either Minnesota

268
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Speaker 1: or a pass, because I think the real challenge here

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Speaker 1: is with these Thursday night games, the consistent overriding factor

270
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Speaker 1: beyond to any analysis and sort of any matchup analysis,

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Speaker 1: has been that the more talented team when there's less

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Speaker 1: time to prepare is the team that ends up winning

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Speaker 1: these games and winning it pretty handily. And there's no

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Speaker 1: doubting like Minnesota is a more veteran team, they are

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Speaker 1: a better team. They've got a veteran defensive coach going

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Speaker 1: against a rookie defensive coordinator. Obviously we love Matthew Stafford,

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Speaker 1: but that offensive line is terrible. So I do think

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Speaker 1: that Minnesota has a little bit of an advantage, so

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Speaker 1: a little different.

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Speaker 3: Well, no, it's doubting that Minnesota is is much better

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Speaker 3: than a Rams, There's no question about it.

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Speaker 1: All Right. We finally don't have a European game an

283
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Speaker 1: England game, so we can potentially put this next game

284
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Speaker 1: into the contest if we see fit. Miami is a

285
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Speaker 1: three point favorite against Arizona. This line was three and

286
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Speaker 1: a half. We pegged it on Sunday night and we

287
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Speaker 1: liked Arizona. It made no sense to us that because

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Speaker 1: of Tua, this line was as high as it was.

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Speaker 1: Since the game last night has come down to three,

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Speaker 1: trending towards two and a half based on what we

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Speaker 1: see with the juice, probably from the Cards win last night.

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Speaker 1: But I mean you said it the other day. Two

293
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Speaker 1: has been out for a month, so it's a lot

294
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Speaker 1: of credit for this Miami team to be all of

295
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Speaker 1: a sudden much better than it had been with Two

296
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Speaker 1: coming back.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think from the professionals perspective, like a lot

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Speaker 3: of guys I talk to you that do like Miami.

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Speaker 2: Here's it's the two at home. We always talk about this.

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Speaker 3: They're a different team at home, especially when they play

301
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Speaker 3: teams that are below five hundred, right, Like historically two

302
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Speaker 3: in this offense they beat up on bad teams at

303
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Speaker 3: home in that sun. Arizona fits that description right, and

304
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Speaker 3: then you mix in Kyler Murray. I don't think he's

305
00:16:41,080 --> 00:16:44,760
Speaker 3: won back to back game chads and like two three years.

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Speaker 1: I was kind of upset that they won last night

307
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Speaker 1: because I liked this at three and a half and

308
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Speaker 1: I was worried about like him winning last night to

309
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Speaker 1: me changes things a little bit. And he's also better

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Speaker 1: at home.

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Speaker 3: We talked about, we talk about the time he's inconsistent.

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Speaker 3: He just he plays well and then he doesn't. Even

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Speaker 3: in that game last night, I know he did enough

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Speaker 3: to win the game, but it's like, man, is he

315
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Speaker 3: So he's just so inconsistent, and it's you know, at

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Speaker 3: what point did the excuses run out? Like this is

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Speaker 3: He's had a bunch of seasons under his belt. They

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Speaker 3: have all their weapons on offense, and at the end

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Speaker 3: of the day, it falls on Kyler. So I'm having

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Speaker 3: a tough time with this one because I want to I

321
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Speaker 3: want to take Arizona, but I know a lot of

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Speaker 3: really smart wise guys right now, like this Miami team

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Speaker 3: in this spot. So I'll have a better opinion for

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Speaker 3: it on Thursday.

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Speaker 2: Right right now, I'm in decided, fyi.

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Speaker 1: Evan Abrams is reporting that Diana Rassini of The Athletic

327
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Speaker 1: is reporting the Rams could trade Cooper Cup and are

328
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Speaker 1: willing to take on his full salary, so that could

329
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Speaker 1: have an impact on the Thursday game.

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Speaker 2: The other suffer to the Browns.

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Speaker 3: I know, right like, get let him, let him get

332
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Speaker 3: behind some type of the other offensive lineup, because I'm

333
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Speaker 3: with you, like Himba being behind that offense line of

334
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Speaker 3: the Rams. They're just it's only a matter of time

335
00:17:58,560 --> 00:17:59,919
Speaker 3: before he takes a bad shot.

336
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Speaker 1: One hundred percent. Couple things I would say about the

337
00:18:02,720 --> 00:18:07,480
Speaker 1: Dolphins so that I'm not understanding to a play in

338
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Speaker 1: the first game. To your point, they get these teams

339
00:18:10,920 --> 00:18:14,320
Speaker 1: that aren't very good on the road in the Sun.

340
00:18:15,119 --> 00:18:18,400
Speaker 1: They barely beat the Jaguars. They needed a Jason Standers

341
00:18:18,520 --> 00:18:21,280
Speaker 1: last second field goal to beat the Jaguars, who turns

342
00:18:21,280 --> 00:18:23,760
Speaker 1: out are a terrible team. They beat him by a

343
00:18:23,800 --> 00:18:26,960
Speaker 1: field goal two is out the next game. Since then,

344
00:18:28,600 --> 00:18:33,080
Speaker 1: they have not scored more than sixteen points in a

345
00:18:33,160 --> 00:18:37,439
Speaker 1: game without Tua. Their best player on defense is Kalais Campbell,

346
00:18:37,440 --> 00:18:40,280
Speaker 1: who's about one hundred and eighty three years old and

347
00:18:40,320 --> 00:18:44,000
Speaker 1: they actually gave up thirty one points to the Tennessee Titans. Like,

348
00:18:45,240 --> 00:18:47,080
Speaker 1: this is a this is not a very good team,

349
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Speaker 1: So we're giving we're giving them a lot of credit.

350
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Speaker 1: And the one thing I'll say, I looked this up

351
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Speaker 1: yesterday too. This might make a difference. This could be

352
00:18:57,560 --> 00:18:59,720
Speaker 1: a very close game. We expect it to be a

353
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Speaker 1: very close game. Yeah, Miami is ranked thirty first in

354
00:19:03,680 --> 00:19:09,159
Speaker 1: the NFL in special teams. The Arizona Cardinals have two kickers,

355
00:19:10,000 --> 00:19:13,560
Speaker 1: two kickers, two kickers because Matt Prater was injured. That

356
00:19:13,720 --> 00:19:18,560
Speaker 1: rank in the top fourteen in terms of kicking according

357
00:19:18,560 --> 00:19:22,440
Speaker 1: to Pro Football Focus. Jason Sanders, Remember there are thirty

358
00:19:22,440 --> 00:19:25,440
Speaker 1: two teams in the NFL. Jason Sanders, the Dolphins kicker

359
00:19:26,000 --> 00:19:29,640
Speaker 1: thirty third in the NFL. He's already missed four field

360
00:19:29,640 --> 00:19:33,080
Speaker 1: goals this season. So just saying, yeah, a lot of

361
00:19:33,119 --> 00:19:35,480
Speaker 1: stuff not to like about Miami. Doesn't need to be

362
00:19:35,480 --> 00:19:36,560
Speaker 1: a pick right where.

363
00:19:37,200 --> 00:19:39,080
Speaker 2: But like, again, if it's three and a half in contest,

364
00:19:39,119 --> 00:19:41,480
Speaker 2: how are we not tempted? That's the whole thing with this, Like.

365
00:19:41,680 --> 00:19:44,320
Speaker 1: I'm totally tempted at three and a half, Like of

366
00:19:44,359 --> 00:19:45,879
Speaker 1: course am I already bet it. You can see it

367
00:19:45,920 --> 00:19:47,640
Speaker 1: in the app. I bet Arizona at three and a half.

368
00:19:49,080 --> 00:19:51,520
Speaker 1: All right, New York Jets at New England Patriots. This

369
00:19:51,560 --> 00:19:53,600
Speaker 1: is what we've gotten in trouble this year, right yeah,

370
00:19:54,160 --> 00:19:58,520
Speaker 1: backing a bad team, bad coach. This has been sort

371
00:19:58,520 --> 00:20:02,480
Speaker 1: of to me where we've made the mistakes. We've blindly

372
00:20:02,520 --> 00:20:05,359
Speaker 1: bet numbers that we think we have to bet and

373
00:20:05,520 --> 00:20:08,119
Speaker 1: haven't taken into account. How bad is the team? Do

374
00:20:08,200 --> 00:20:13,119
Speaker 1: they not have any discernible outstanding unit? Do they not

375
00:20:13,200 --> 00:20:16,960
Speaker 1: have good coaching? I'm not loving this New England team

376
00:20:17,040 --> 00:20:20,119
Speaker 1: right now, and I think we've been blinded by a

377
00:20:20,119 --> 00:20:27,480
Speaker 1: lot of different things. For the record, home Division dogs

378
00:20:27,520 --> 00:20:31,680
Speaker 1: three nine and one against the spread this year, nineteen

379
00:20:31,920 --> 00:20:35,639
Speaker 1: thirty one and three thirty eight percent the past two seasons.

380
00:20:36,119 --> 00:20:40,680
Speaker 1: So this trend that we love home division dogs isn't

381
00:20:40,720 --> 00:20:42,920
Speaker 1: exactly our friend right now.

382
00:20:43,359 --> 00:20:47,080
Speaker 2: No, and shockingly, there's a lot of road favorites. I

383
00:20:47,080 --> 00:20:50,280
Speaker 2: do like this week, this spot here.

384
00:20:50,119 --> 00:20:52,399
Speaker 3: Like this type of game where you know, if you

385
00:20:52,440 --> 00:20:54,240
Speaker 3: want to be mister Joe Public, you just take the

386
00:20:54,320 --> 00:20:56,000
Speaker 3: Jets money line and pair it up with I don't

387
00:20:56,000 --> 00:21:00,240
Speaker 3: know the Chargers were at home playing against uh, New Orleans, right, Like,

388
00:21:00,600 --> 00:21:02,280
Speaker 3: there's ways around it where you don't have to take

389
00:21:02,280 --> 00:21:06,480
Speaker 3: this seven, because yeah, instinctually, this is a lot of

390
00:21:06,520 --> 00:21:09,640
Speaker 3: points for a Jets team that is not that good,

391
00:21:09,840 --> 00:21:11,440
Speaker 3: and they have a bunch of weaknesses and one of

392
00:21:11,480 --> 00:21:14,000
Speaker 3: them is against the run, and the Patriots do want

393
00:21:14,040 --> 00:21:16,960
Speaker 3: to run the ball. So I'm with you, like, this

394
00:21:17,119 --> 00:21:18,639
Speaker 3: is not one of the dogs I love. But I

395
00:21:18,960 --> 00:21:21,639
Speaker 3: can see how guys have come in and bet this

396
00:21:21,720 --> 00:21:23,800
Speaker 3: Patriot's high because this number did touch seven and a half.

397
00:21:23,880 --> 00:21:26,879
Speaker 2: Now, yeah, seven, So I see what they see on it.

398
00:21:26,880 --> 00:21:27,359
Speaker 2: But I'm with you.

399
00:21:27,440 --> 00:21:30,119
Speaker 3: It's like there's other dogs I'd rather invest in right now,

400
00:21:30,160 --> 00:21:32,160
Speaker 3: and Drake May and this Patriots team they're just They're

401
00:21:32,200 --> 00:21:32,880
Speaker 3: just not one of them.

402
00:21:33,280 --> 00:21:37,359
Speaker 1: So I I everything. It's weird sometimes, Simon, because you

403
00:21:37,440 --> 00:21:44,080
Speaker 1: and I are BFFs, and despite the generational age gap, Uh,

404
00:21:45,160 --> 00:21:48,080
Speaker 1: it's like we're in the same mind because I like,

405
00:21:48,320 --> 00:21:50,240
Speaker 1: I like how Drake May has been playing. I think

406
00:21:50,280 --> 00:21:53,680
Speaker 1: they're improved. I literally wrote in my notes the Jets

407
00:21:53,720 --> 00:21:58,159
Speaker 1: are not very good their secondary right now against a

408
00:21:58,320 --> 00:22:04,639
Speaker 1: rookie playing with Moxie is interesting as a matchup. I

409
00:22:04,640 --> 00:22:07,680
Speaker 1: think the Jets pass Rush has an advantage against this

410
00:22:07,760 --> 00:22:11,520
Speaker 1: O line, but the Patriots run game has an advantage

411
00:22:11,520 --> 00:22:16,879
Speaker 1: against the Jets rush d I lean, Pats, do not

412
00:22:17,040 --> 00:22:20,120
Speaker 1: think this is a top five number, a top five

413
00:22:20,160 --> 00:22:25,000
Speaker 1: game for us right now. Don't forget Rhode faves sixty

414
00:22:25,000 --> 00:22:28,600
Speaker 1: two percent against the spread this year. So I'm told

415
00:22:28,760 --> 00:22:33,639
Speaker 1: I see no advantage here. No, we're passing Atlanta Tampa

416
00:22:33,680 --> 00:22:37,800
Speaker 1: Bay Tampa Bay plus two and a half. Obviously, this

417
00:22:37,880 --> 00:22:44,040
Speaker 1: has moved five points since yesterday off of the Godwin injury,

418
00:22:44,240 --> 00:22:47,520
Speaker 1: off of the Mike Evans injury. I do feel like,

419
00:22:47,560 --> 00:22:50,720
Speaker 1: and we talked about this on Sunday, we screwed up

420
00:22:51,840 --> 00:22:55,679
Speaker 1: not fading Atlanta last week. It was the perfect spot.

421
00:22:55,840 --> 00:22:58,600
Speaker 1: We knew it was trending that way. I think we

422
00:22:58,680 --> 00:23:02,399
Speaker 1: got I think we just lost the forest for the

423
00:23:02,440 --> 00:23:07,959
Speaker 1: trees and the number a little bit thoughts here two

424
00:23:08,040 --> 00:23:09,280
Speaker 1: and a half now Atlanta is a two and a

425
00:23:09,280 --> 00:23:10,280
Speaker 1: half boy favorites.

426
00:23:10,119 --> 00:23:11,080
Speaker 2: Supposed to take Atlanta.

427
00:23:11,119 --> 00:23:15,840
Speaker 3: I mean we've just taken away the key to this

428
00:23:15,840 --> 00:23:18,800
Speaker 3: this team by Baker, right, Baker, as you know much

429
00:23:18,840 --> 00:23:19,840
Speaker 3: Flowers we want to give him.

430
00:23:19,880 --> 00:23:22,040
Speaker 2: We know it's the Godwin Mike Evans effect.

431
00:23:22,080 --> 00:23:24,280
Speaker 3: I mean, he's got a Hall of Famer in Mike

432
00:23:24,320 --> 00:23:26,440
Speaker 3: Evans as one of the best red zone threats ever.

433
00:23:26,840 --> 00:23:29,040
Speaker 2: And then Godwin is just such a great possession receiver.

434
00:23:29,119 --> 00:23:32,720
Speaker 3: Anytime Baker needs that third down completion, he's always looking

435
00:23:32,720 --> 00:23:35,280
Speaker 3: for Godwin like he's just such a weapon. That would

436
00:23:35,280 --> 00:23:37,720
Speaker 3: have been huge in this matchup, Like both these guys

437
00:23:38,160 --> 00:23:40,800
Speaker 3: would be amazing because we talk all the time. Alanda

438
00:23:40,800 --> 00:23:42,919
Speaker 3: does not have a pass rush, so we would have

439
00:23:43,000 --> 00:23:45,520
Speaker 3: Baker with time with his two receivers.

440
00:23:46,240 --> 00:23:47,000
Speaker 2: It would have been great.

441
00:23:47,160 --> 00:23:49,280
Speaker 3: But I think we're going to see a total transformation

442
00:23:49,320 --> 00:23:51,639
Speaker 3: of this team now that you know they're going to be,

443
00:23:51,760 --> 00:23:54,040
Speaker 3: you know, running with Bucky or running it with White,

444
00:23:54,080 --> 00:23:55,440
Speaker 3: like they're just going to be running with their two

445
00:23:55,440 --> 00:23:56,600
Speaker 3: headed monster backfield.

446
00:23:57,200 --> 00:23:59,560
Speaker 2: And you know, I look on the flip.

447
00:23:59,280 --> 00:24:03,480
Speaker 3: Side with a land coming off that brutal loss, this

448
00:24:03,520 --> 00:24:05,200
Speaker 3: has to be a bounced back spot for them, and

449
00:24:05,240 --> 00:24:08,280
Speaker 3: they know if they win this, I mean, the division

450
00:24:08,320 --> 00:24:11,159
Speaker 3: isn't theirs, but it is right like this, they would be.

451
00:24:11,320 --> 00:24:14,240
Speaker 3: Now they'd be up two to zero on this Bucks team,

452
00:24:14,400 --> 00:24:17,639
Speaker 3: and the Bucks of all these injuries, and you know this,

453
00:24:17,640 --> 00:24:19,600
Speaker 3: this is just a really nice spot to take Atlanta.

454
00:24:19,720 --> 00:24:22,120
Speaker 3: So I hate how much numbers moved, but it's still

455
00:24:22,160 --> 00:24:24,680
Speaker 3: under the key number of three. So I'm gonna take

456
00:24:24,680 --> 00:24:26,200
Speaker 3: the two and a half right now because I could

457
00:24:26,200 --> 00:24:29,080
Speaker 3: see this keep going up. It's just brutal bad luck

458
00:24:29,119 --> 00:24:31,960
Speaker 3: for this Bucks team, and I feel terrible every time

459
00:24:31,960 --> 00:24:34,000
Speaker 3: I talk about a team I like and I praise them,

460
00:24:34,080 --> 00:24:36,040
Speaker 3: it feels like all hell breaks loose.

461
00:24:35,840 --> 00:24:36,520
Speaker 2: And they die out.

462
00:24:36,600 --> 00:24:38,680
Speaker 3: So I literally bet them to be the one seed

463
00:24:38,760 --> 00:24:41,000
Speaker 3: last week at twenty two to one, and they're probably

464
00:24:41,000 --> 00:24:43,199
Speaker 3: fifty to one now to be the one seed NFC.

465
00:24:43,320 --> 00:24:45,679
Speaker 3: So I swear everyone out there, I'm not gonna talk

466
00:24:45,680 --> 00:24:48,479
Speaker 3: about any player on your team, mention your team nothing.

467
00:24:48,600 --> 00:24:50,960
Speaker 3: I will just strictly do week by a week. No

468
00:24:51,040 --> 00:24:52,119
Speaker 3: more future talk for me.

469
00:24:53,240 --> 00:24:56,000
Speaker 1: The key for Godwin, and they talked about this on

470
00:24:56,040 --> 00:24:59,000
Speaker 1: the broadcast last night, has been his yards after the catch,

471
00:24:59,600 --> 00:25:03,840
Speaker 1: leading the NFL receivers in yards after the catch and

472
00:25:04,200 --> 00:25:08,399
Speaker 1: no other Bucks player. He had three hundred and thirty

473
00:25:08,440 --> 00:25:10,280
Speaker 1: five at the end of the game last night. No

474
00:25:10,320 --> 00:25:13,240
Speaker 1: other Bucks player had more than two hundred. No tight

475
00:25:13,359 --> 00:25:16,040
Speaker 1: end has one hundred. So to your point about the

476
00:25:16,080 --> 00:25:18,840
Speaker 1: third downs, that's critical. We saw it a couple of

477
00:25:18,880 --> 00:25:19,600
Speaker 1: times last night.

478
00:25:19,640 --> 00:25:20,520
Speaker 2: It's such a big deal.

479
00:25:21,680 --> 00:25:24,080
Speaker 1: That is that. The one scary thing and we need

480
00:25:24,119 --> 00:25:27,600
Speaker 1: to address this is the line has flipped. When the

481
00:25:27,640 --> 00:25:31,640
Speaker 1: line flips, it tends to favor the underdog. We're now

482
00:25:31,680 --> 00:25:35,800
Speaker 1: getting an underdog that is wounded at home. There is

483
00:25:35,880 --> 00:25:39,720
Speaker 1: sort of a you know, we're all, what's that.

484
00:25:39,920 --> 00:25:42,119
Speaker 2: On a short week though, on a short week.

485
00:25:42,280 --> 00:25:45,199
Speaker 1: And also I do think like there's there's a difference,

486
00:25:45,240 --> 00:25:47,280
Speaker 1: and I wish we should we could do this, and

487
00:25:47,320 --> 00:25:50,720
Speaker 1: we can't line flip because of injury and line flip

488
00:25:50,720 --> 00:25:53,239
Speaker 1: because of money, right right, And I think I do

489
00:25:53,280 --> 00:25:57,400
Speaker 1: think there's a there's a distinction there with very real difference.

490
00:25:58,040 --> 00:26:00,800
Speaker 1: I'm so excited to talk about this next game. I

491
00:26:00,840 --> 00:26:02,240
Speaker 1: think it has big balls potential.

492
00:26:04,000 --> 00:26:06,240
Speaker 2: I listen man to say that, I'm proud of you.

493
00:26:06,280 --> 00:26:08,000
Speaker 2: It would be the massive understatement.

494
00:26:08,359 --> 00:26:13,760
Speaker 1: Tennessee at Detroit Detroit minus eleven. We've had two double

495
00:26:13,800 --> 00:26:17,400
Speaker 1: digit favorites through seven weeks. Don't forget the first few

496
00:26:17,440 --> 00:26:19,680
Speaker 1: weeks of the year. First two months, the ever spread

497
00:26:19,760 --> 00:26:21,640
Speaker 1: was like four points, which is the Titans. It's been

498
00:26:22,040 --> 00:26:26,320
Speaker 1: in a generation. Currently, three double digits in week eight,

499
00:26:27,200 --> 00:26:30,120
Speaker 1: we're going to talk about Tennessee Detroit. We also had Baltimore,

500
00:26:30,240 --> 00:26:33,600
Speaker 1: Kansas City at Cleveland. It's come down. We had Kansas

501
00:26:33,640 --> 00:26:37,920
Speaker 1: City at Las Vegas. We'll talk about that. We talked

502
00:26:37,920 --> 00:26:42,320
Speaker 1: about this Sunday night, like we're going to bet the

503
00:26:42,359 --> 00:26:45,240
Speaker 1: Lions here. It was at twelve and a half eleven

504
00:26:45,280 --> 00:26:47,360
Speaker 1: and a half eleven, So we know whise guys are

505
00:26:47,400 --> 00:26:54,000
Speaker 1: betting on Tennessee. But double digit favorites at home past

506
00:26:54,040 --> 00:26:59,800
Speaker 1: five years, fifty four percent. And we can keep preaching

507
00:27:00,840 --> 00:27:05,159
Speaker 1: on the Lions right now. But this is not an

508
00:27:05,200 --> 00:27:09,359
Speaker 1: offense that sort of plays down to its opponent. The

509
00:27:09,440 --> 00:27:12,000
Speaker 1: offensive line is just too dominant, and they're going against

510
00:27:12,000 --> 00:27:15,479
Speaker 1: a team whose pressure rate is bottom third in the league.

511
00:27:15,720 --> 00:27:18,560
Speaker 1: They've blown first half leads and three of their five

512
00:27:18,680 --> 00:27:23,119
Speaker 1: losses in the second half. I mentioned this at the top.

513
00:27:24,080 --> 00:27:26,760
Speaker 1: They're the other team that is giving up sixteen points

514
00:27:26,800 --> 00:27:30,600
Speaker 1: per game that grows to nineteen points per game, last

515
00:27:30,600 --> 00:27:35,399
Speaker 1: in the league. Like I fear that, I do not

516
00:27:35,560 --> 00:27:38,040
Speaker 1: fear that Tennessee will keep it close. I think, like

517
00:27:38,080 --> 00:27:41,520
Speaker 1: the Bills, the Lions are more inclined to run away

518
00:27:41,520 --> 00:27:46,920
Speaker 1: with it in the second half. Simon, we're gonna bet

519
00:27:46,920 --> 00:27:47,919
Speaker 1: the Lions minus eleven.

520
00:27:49,000 --> 00:27:51,720
Speaker 2: Really, you're going to guarantee this will be contest.

521
00:27:51,880 --> 00:27:53,120
Speaker 1: I feel good about it right now.

522
00:27:53,680 --> 00:27:55,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think we're in the same page ride like

523
00:27:55,600 --> 00:27:58,359
Speaker 3: the Lions. I said, I'm shocked this line wasn't fourteen.

524
00:27:58,600 --> 00:28:01,320
Speaker 3: I mean just they're all just humming in every way,

525
00:28:01,960 --> 00:28:03,960
Speaker 3: you know, betting this though that the only way we

526
00:28:04,000 --> 00:28:07,200
Speaker 3: lose is not Tennessee winning, it's Detroit beating themselves somehow. Right,

527
00:28:07,280 --> 00:28:10,080
Speaker 3: it's we finally get that bad golf game. I mean,

528
00:28:10,119 --> 00:28:13,240
Speaker 3: he's been the terminator of these last three four weeks.

529
00:28:13,280 --> 00:28:17,000
Speaker 3: Like he's just automatic killer every week, Like he doesn't miss,

530
00:28:17,320 --> 00:28:20,000
Speaker 3: makes the right read every time, always finds the open weapon.

531
00:28:20,040 --> 00:28:22,639
Speaker 3: And we talk coming the season, no team had them

532
00:28:22,840 --> 00:28:25,399
Speaker 3: better put together offense than this team, right, they just

533
00:28:25,520 --> 00:28:29,080
Speaker 3: nailed last year's drafts, getting Laporta and Gibbs on top

534
00:28:29,119 --> 00:28:31,800
Speaker 3: of you know what they already had. And this offense,

535
00:28:32,080 --> 00:28:35,320
Speaker 3: like it's just you're right, Like I'm trying to trying

536
00:28:35,320 --> 00:28:36,840
Speaker 3: not to scare myself off of it because this is

537
00:28:36,880 --> 00:28:37,800
Speaker 3: such a huge number.

538
00:28:37,800 --> 00:28:40,360
Speaker 2: But we talked about these bad teams.

539
00:28:40,080 --> 00:28:43,440
Speaker 3: Are just really bad right now, and I wish there

540
00:28:43,480 --> 00:28:45,000
Speaker 3: was some life I could take from Tennessee.

541
00:28:45,000 --> 00:28:47,800
Speaker 2: Like I went back and watched that film against the Bills.

542
00:28:48,400 --> 00:28:50,320
Speaker 3: We talk all the time, these bad teams just shoot

543
00:28:50,320 --> 00:28:53,440
Speaker 3: themselves on the foot, right, the dumb penalties like the turnovers,

544
00:28:53,480 --> 00:28:57,600
Speaker 3: the sloppiness on third downs, and then defensively, you're right

545
00:28:57,680 --> 00:28:59,720
Speaker 3: like they made a couple of business decisions against that

546
00:28:59,720 --> 00:29:02,360
Speaker 3: Bill team, and you could really tell in that second

547
00:29:02,440 --> 00:29:04,480
Speaker 3: half where it's like they kind of gave up once

548
00:29:04,520 --> 00:29:06,720
Speaker 3: they even when they got down ten or whatever it was,

549
00:29:06,760 --> 00:29:09,760
Speaker 3: it was just like they're totally checked out. So I'll

550
00:29:09,800 --> 00:29:12,240
Speaker 3: follow you on this one. I do love this Lion's team.

551
00:29:12,280 --> 00:29:14,960
Speaker 2: It's just, you know, it just irks me to take

552
00:29:15,000 --> 00:29:16,840
Speaker 2: a big favorite, So I got to kind of push

553
00:29:16,840 --> 00:29:18,520
Speaker 2: that aside and just know that this is a good

554
00:29:18,600 --> 00:29:20,560
Speaker 2: number and it probably should be closer to fourteen.

555
00:29:21,040 --> 00:29:24,520
Speaker 1: Dude, we hate taking big favorites, but we do think

556
00:29:24,800 --> 00:29:27,800
Speaker 1: the number should be much much higher, yeah, than eleven,

557
00:29:28,040 --> 00:29:30,920
Speaker 1: And it's come down and as much as we hate

558
00:29:30,920 --> 00:29:34,600
Speaker 1: doing it, that has been the side, not just this season,

559
00:29:35,080 --> 00:29:38,400
Speaker 1: but historically in the spot. You don't always take double

560
00:29:38,400 --> 00:29:41,040
Speaker 1: digit favorites. And we're going to talk about one later

561
00:29:41,120 --> 00:29:44,160
Speaker 1: on with Kansas City in Vegas, where we both agree

562
00:29:44,160 --> 00:29:46,280
Speaker 1: that we're not going to want to back Kansas City.

563
00:29:46,320 --> 00:29:50,640
Speaker 1: But this feels like a spot like it. This Lion's

564
00:29:50,680 --> 00:29:54,320
Speaker 1: team is great, and you know, we talked about this

565
00:29:54,360 --> 00:29:58,719
Speaker 1: on Sunday. Jared Goff was seventeen to one on Sunday

566
00:29:58,760 --> 00:30:03,560
Speaker 1: afternoon to win MVP. He's now eight to one. He

567
00:30:03,680 --> 00:30:05,920
Speaker 1: leads the league in completion percentage, he leads the league

568
00:30:05,920 --> 00:30:08,640
Speaker 1: in yards per attempt. He second in QB rating. He's

569
00:30:08,840 --> 00:30:13,680
Speaker 1: elite against pressure right now, which was the one Achilles heel.

570
00:30:14,080 --> 00:30:19,800
Speaker 1: He has the second most twenty plus yard passes. He

571
00:30:19,840 --> 00:30:23,400
Speaker 1: has a four game stretch where he's completing eighty three

572
00:30:23,440 --> 00:30:25,880
Speaker 1: and a half percent of his passes, which is the

573
00:30:25,920 --> 00:30:29,760
Speaker 1: greatest four game stretch in history. And I know not

574
00:30:29,880 --> 00:30:34,200
Speaker 1: all this can last. I can't, but I think when

575
00:30:34,560 --> 00:30:37,040
Speaker 1: your offensive line is this good and you've got a

576
00:30:37,040 --> 00:30:40,240
Speaker 1: game plan that is so focused on being physical and

577
00:30:40,360 --> 00:30:45,880
Speaker 1: pulling up safeties to protect against the run, there's something

578
00:30:45,920 --> 00:30:49,200
Speaker 1: that is more than just luck and timing here. It's

579
00:30:49,280 --> 00:30:53,120
Speaker 1: like there's substance foundational.

580
00:30:54,920 --> 00:30:55,360
Speaker 2: It's fair.

581
00:30:55,560 --> 00:30:57,360
Speaker 3: Just like you just said, though, we've been riding this

582
00:30:57,400 --> 00:31:00,080
Speaker 3: train for three four weeks in a row now, so

583
00:31:00,200 --> 00:31:01,000
Speaker 3: we do have to hop.

584
00:31:00,840 --> 00:31:04,920
Speaker 1: Off the only reason we're winning anything right now it's true,

585
00:31:05,080 --> 00:31:08,640
Speaker 1: and I think there's a difference between selling high and

586
00:31:08,760 --> 00:31:14,160
Speaker 1: still being ascendant, Like this stock is ascendent to me. Yeah,

587
00:31:14,240 --> 00:31:17,840
Speaker 1: I don't think it's time to sell Green Bay at Jacksonville. However,

588
00:31:19,040 --> 00:31:25,240
Speaker 1: packers are four and a half. Tricky, tricky, tricky, tricky.

589
00:31:25,320 --> 00:31:27,360
Speaker 2: Before I get I got a couple of calls about

590
00:31:27,360 --> 00:31:27,840
Speaker 2: this one.

591
00:31:28,040 --> 00:31:30,240
Speaker 1: Tell me because we talked about a Sunday. Tell me

592
00:31:30,240 --> 00:31:31,760
Speaker 1: because I'm very curious right now.

593
00:31:32,160 --> 00:31:34,960
Speaker 3: I'm missing something apparently, and that Jordan Love ain't right yet,

594
00:31:35,040 --> 00:31:37,360
Speaker 3: and there's something missing with this Green Bay team and

595
00:31:37,480 --> 00:31:40,400
Speaker 3: this is a letdown spot for them. And this Jaguars

596
00:31:40,440 --> 00:31:42,600
Speaker 3: team's not as bad as people perceive. They've had just

597
00:31:42,640 --> 00:31:45,480
Speaker 3: bad luck this year. YadA, YadA, YadA. I don't know

598
00:31:45,520 --> 00:31:47,120
Speaker 3: what to make of us because we're supposed to be

599
00:31:47,200 --> 00:31:49,760
Speaker 3: the jacks here. Oh yeah, but I'm just we've just

600
00:31:49,800 --> 00:31:52,760
Speaker 3: been burned. Like, honestly, this was going to be my

601
00:31:52,880 --> 00:31:55,280
Speaker 3: Simon says, but I found another game that Thank god,

602
00:31:55,320 --> 00:31:57,000
Speaker 3: I don't have to make it this one because it's just,

603
00:31:58,000 --> 00:31:59,920
Speaker 3: oh man, it's I'm having a hard time trying to

604
00:32:00,160 --> 00:32:02,120
Speaker 3: I don't mind betting this, I'm just having a tough

605
00:32:02,160 --> 00:32:04,720
Speaker 3: time trying to get their listeners to get on this

606
00:32:04,760 --> 00:32:07,040
Speaker 3: one with us, because you.

607
00:32:07,000 --> 00:32:08,760
Speaker 2: Know, not all the time.

608
00:32:08,800 --> 00:32:10,520
Speaker 3: Doesn't make sense that the numbers say this is the

609
00:32:10,560 --> 00:32:13,400
Speaker 3: right team to take in, these Jaguars team, and that

610
00:32:13,480 --> 00:32:16,800
Speaker 3: this is probably a good number, and that this GREENBA

611
00:32:16,960 --> 00:32:18,720
Speaker 3: Green Bay team has played a lot of just really

612
00:32:18,720 --> 00:32:21,000
Speaker 3: close games, right. They let teams hang around because their

613
00:32:21,040 --> 00:32:24,160
Speaker 3: defense hasn't really been as great as people perceived, and they've.

614
00:32:24,000 --> 00:32:27,360
Speaker 2: Been relying on turnovers and you know it's tough here.

615
00:32:27,440 --> 00:32:28,200
Speaker 2: What are you thinking?

616
00:32:28,800 --> 00:32:35,040
Speaker 1: I can't find the answer when we go through these.

617
00:32:35,080 --> 00:32:37,800
Speaker 2: You know you're supposed to do right, Yeah, yeah, I mean.

618
00:32:37,800 --> 00:32:43,600
Speaker 1: We have to bet Jacksonville, But like I want, I'm

619
00:32:43,680 --> 00:32:48,400
Speaker 1: trying really hard to think about what's making us lose

620
00:32:48,480 --> 00:32:49,280
Speaker 1: without overthaw.

621
00:32:50,120 --> 00:32:52,360
Speaker 3: But I want to bet the Packers honestly, just because

622
00:32:52,400 --> 00:32:53,719
Speaker 3: I do toolost couple of weeks.

623
00:32:54,040 --> 00:32:56,960
Speaker 1: Dude. I want to bet the Packers because they're the

624
00:32:57,000 --> 00:33:00,960
Speaker 1: better team, yea, with a better coach and a better quarterback.

625
00:33:01,320 --> 00:33:04,560
Speaker 2: And when we've been there flying from England.

626
00:33:04,480 --> 00:33:06,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, and they're not flying from England and we've been losing.

627
00:33:07,280 --> 00:33:09,480
Speaker 1: It's because we are getting so enamored with what we

628
00:33:09,520 --> 00:33:12,320
Speaker 1: are thinking is a point a point and a half

629
00:33:12,360 --> 00:33:13,920
Speaker 1: of value and believing that.

630
00:33:13,920 --> 00:33:15,920
Speaker 2: There's three and a half, you're geting to free point

631
00:33:15,960 --> 00:33:16,680
Speaker 2: here exactly.

632
00:33:17,080 --> 00:33:19,719
Speaker 1: And we believe there that there is something we're not

633
00:33:19,760 --> 00:33:23,400
Speaker 1: seeing that makes this team undervalued. And I don't know

634
00:33:23,440 --> 00:33:26,640
Speaker 1: what it is, and I know that the market, meaning professionals,

635
00:33:27,200 --> 00:33:29,720
Speaker 1: believe in the Jags. We've seen the number move from

636
00:33:29,800 --> 00:33:32,520
Speaker 1: five down to four and a half. The Packers have

637
00:33:32,640 --> 00:33:36,040
Speaker 1: beaten up on bad teams except for Houston and CJ.

638
00:33:36,120 --> 00:33:39,760
Speaker 1: Shroud had his worst game ever, literally worst game ever

639
00:33:39,800 --> 00:33:43,000
Speaker 1: as an NFL quarterback in one plus seasons, through for

640
00:33:43,080 --> 00:33:44,600
Speaker 1: less than one hundred yards for the first time.

641
00:33:45,240 --> 00:33:48,960
Speaker 2: Because Jordan lovet turnovers, they stayed in the game exactly.

642
00:33:49,000 --> 00:33:52,800
Speaker 1: And like when we're losing, it's because we're betting bad

643
00:33:52,840 --> 00:33:54,600
Speaker 1: teams at what we think is a good neighbor who

644
00:33:54,840 --> 00:34:03,160
Speaker 1: number who can't overcome turnovers. And so this season, this

645
00:34:03,280 --> 00:34:07,400
Speaker 1: game fits the mold of the games that we should

646
00:34:08,200 --> 00:34:13,200
Speaker 1: bet the public road favorite and the Packer as chalky

647
00:34:13,239 --> 00:34:14,120
Speaker 1: as it gets.

648
00:34:15,560 --> 00:34:15,839
Speaker 2: It is.

649
00:34:15,880 --> 00:34:18,800
Speaker 3: But again we talked like this, I don't know this

650
00:34:19,360 --> 00:34:23,239
Speaker 3: team right now. They've struggled to stop the run in

651
00:34:23,280 --> 00:34:26,400
Speaker 3: Green Bay, and I do think that the Jaguars have

652
00:34:26,440 --> 00:34:29,040
Speaker 3: found something in Tank Bigsby, right, They've made the switch

653
00:34:29,040 --> 00:34:32,520
Speaker 3: at running back and he's been an absolute monster. Like

654
00:34:32,560 --> 00:34:35,920
Speaker 3: this guy runs like Marshaun Lynch. He runs so hard,

655
00:34:36,440 --> 00:34:38,040
Speaker 3: and that to me has been a difference for this

656
00:34:38,120 --> 00:34:40,760
Speaker 3: team these last couple of weeks. You know, the Jaguars

657
00:34:40,840 --> 00:34:44,560
Speaker 3: have looked better, if you could even say that. But

658
00:34:44,640 --> 00:34:47,080
Speaker 3: that's my fear here is it's like, am I falling

659
00:34:47,080 --> 00:34:48,440
Speaker 3: too much in love with them? Being up on a

660
00:34:48,440 --> 00:34:50,239
Speaker 3: bad Patriots team? Now they're about to come crash on

661
00:34:50,280 --> 00:34:54,359
Speaker 3: the Earth and you are a legit playoff team. Well, see, brother,

662
00:34:54,360 --> 00:34:56,040
Speaker 3: I'm telling you I got Usually I don't get calls

663
00:34:56,040 --> 00:34:58,800
Speaker 3: after our slaying that game. I had four different pros

664
00:34:58,880 --> 00:35:01,719
Speaker 3: calling me up and be like, don't take Green Bay

665
00:35:01,760 --> 00:35:05,319
Speaker 3: this week. And usually I'd be like, you know, on

666
00:35:05,400 --> 00:35:07,120
Speaker 3: their side, but I'm with you right now where it's

667
00:35:07,160 --> 00:35:09,239
Speaker 3: like public is king right now, like they're having a

668
00:35:09,320 --> 00:35:11,960
Speaker 3: nice run and it's like the books, they've had some

669
00:35:12,040 --> 00:35:14,160
Speaker 3: bad numbers and maybe I'm misreading this one. This is

670
00:35:14,160 --> 00:35:17,920
Speaker 3: another bad number by the book, but it is extremely tempting.

671
00:35:17,960 --> 00:35:19,840
Speaker 3: You're getting four and a half right now in Green Bay,

672
00:35:19,920 --> 00:35:21,840
Speaker 3: So yeah, this is definitely a game we're gonna have

673
00:35:21,840 --> 00:35:22,480
Speaker 3: to revisit on.

674
00:35:22,440 --> 00:35:24,759
Speaker 1: Thursday, so we'll get sharp calls about this. I'm sure

675
00:35:24,800 --> 00:35:28,520
Speaker 1: I'll give you one more trend that leans Jacksonville. So

676
00:35:28,560 --> 00:35:32,160
Speaker 1: all the public trends for this year, obviously that we've

677
00:35:32,200 --> 00:35:37,480
Speaker 1: mentioned are in favor of the Packers, the road favorites.

678
00:35:37,719 --> 00:35:41,840
Speaker 1: All that is in favor of the Packers. One trend

679
00:35:41,880 --> 00:35:44,480
Speaker 1: that is in favor of the Jags. Home dogs are

680
00:35:44,480 --> 00:35:48,560
Speaker 1: more than field goal off of a win of fourteen

681
00:35:48,560 --> 00:35:52,399
Speaker 1: plus points sixty three percent the past twenty years.

682
00:35:52,440 --> 00:35:55,400
Speaker 2: There we go, No, we know this is the spot

683
00:35:55,440 --> 00:35:56,480
Speaker 2: to take the Jaguars.

684
00:35:56,600 --> 00:35:59,480
Speaker 3: Like the numbers everything, it's like, but this, like you

685
00:35:59,480 --> 00:36:02,319
Speaker 3: just said, it's a wonky year. I mean, I can't

686
00:36:02,320 --> 00:36:05,080
Speaker 3: get over that one in sixteen stat It's like, fucking

687
00:36:05,120 --> 00:36:06,799
Speaker 3: ay man, it's making me rethink everything I do.

688
00:36:07,200 --> 00:36:14,080
Speaker 1: I know, how do you think I felt yesterday? It dude, yeah,

689
00:36:14,120 --> 00:36:18,120
Speaker 1: blue my mind. I'm like, this can't be right. So

690
00:36:18,200 --> 00:36:22,440
Speaker 1: then I did it again, like something's not right here this,

691
00:36:23,160 --> 00:36:31,200
Speaker 1: I did it again, double checked one in sixteen. It's insane.

692
00:36:31,760 --> 00:36:33,799
Speaker 1: It is how many how many games we bet this year?

693
00:36:33,880 --> 00:36:36,440
Speaker 1: Forty games we put into the contest, thirty five games,

694
00:36:36,440 --> 00:36:39,960
Speaker 1: whatever it is seven times five. Seventeen of those are

695
00:36:40,000 --> 00:36:43,200
Speaker 1: the bets we would always make, and we've lost sixteen

696
00:36:43,200 --> 00:36:43,360
Speaker 1: of them.

697
00:36:43,400 --> 00:36:45,560
Speaker 2: Now they're killing us.

698
00:36:46,480 --> 00:36:50,160
Speaker 1: You know it's not killing me. Right now. I mentioned

699
00:36:50,160 --> 00:36:51,880
Speaker 1: to you at the top of the show that we

700
00:36:51,920 --> 00:36:55,440
Speaker 1: are coming to you live from our Tommy John Home studios.

701
00:36:55,719 --> 00:36:59,680
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702
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703
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704
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Speaker 1: my wife. She's like, you must have a show because

705
00:37:08,680 --> 00:37:12,040
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706
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707
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Speaker 1: They've changed my life. When you're truly comfortable, you can

708
00:37:22,840 --> 00:37:25,719
Speaker 1: bet better. If you love Simon and I, if you

709
00:37:25,760 --> 00:37:28,960
Speaker 1: love this show, you love Tommy John, get twenty five

710
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711
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712
00:37:36,840 --> 00:37:42,120
Speaker 1: John dot com slash favorites. It's all right Indianapolis, at Houston,

713
00:37:42,840 --> 00:37:45,960
Speaker 1: we bet the Colts at six and a half. We

714
00:37:46,040 --> 00:37:50,080
Speaker 1: hit it on Sunday night. I'm leaning an exact decision here.

715
00:37:50,080 --> 00:37:52,239
Speaker 1: So if you're if this is where you want to

716
00:37:52,239 --> 00:37:58,319
Speaker 1: go to, Simon says, okay, EXAC decision, Get Indianapolis Colts.

717
00:37:59,239 --> 00:38:03,319
Speaker 2: Good choice between the unthinkable and the impossible. Are you

718
00:38:03,320 --> 00:38:07,320
Speaker 2: have your honors? Text to cut number? Executive decision.

719
00:38:08,719 --> 00:38:10,680
Speaker 1: It's a scary one. We're going to be sweating this.

720
00:38:11,480 --> 00:38:13,239
Speaker 1: It's going to be the end of the game. We're

721
00:38:13,239 --> 00:38:16,839
Speaker 1: going to need Anthony Richardson to do something that he

722
00:38:16,920 --> 00:38:20,760
Speaker 1: never does, which is be accurate or fling that miracle

723
00:38:21,120 --> 00:38:25,360
Speaker 1: fifty yard pass to Alec Pierce for a touchdown. C J.

724
00:38:25,480 --> 00:38:28,879
Speaker 1: Stroud has not looked right without Nico Collins. He went

725
00:38:28,920 --> 00:38:31,319
Speaker 1: out in Week five in that Buffalo game after he

726
00:38:31,360 --> 00:38:34,040
Speaker 1: scored a touchdown. The past two games have been on

727
00:38:34,080 --> 00:38:37,359
Speaker 1: the road, but c J. Stroud in one of those

728
00:38:37,400 --> 00:38:41,399
Speaker 1: games through for fewer than one hundred yards, worst game

729
00:38:41,440 --> 00:38:45,000
Speaker 1: of his career. His QB rating in those two games

730
00:38:45,120 --> 00:38:54,080
Speaker 1: is about forty five, no touchdowns, completion percentage dropped considerably

731
00:38:56,520 --> 00:39:02,759
Speaker 1: like unlike the Pats. To me, this fits the bill

732
00:39:03,080 --> 00:39:08,439
Speaker 1: of betting the underdog that is ugly. I think we've

733
00:39:08,440 --> 00:39:12,359
Speaker 1: got a really good coach in Shane Stichen, and I

734
00:39:12,400 --> 00:39:17,280
Speaker 1: also think we do have a dominant unit that favors

735
00:39:17,320 --> 00:39:20,040
Speaker 1: the Colts. Their offensive line, their run blocking is the

736
00:39:20,040 --> 00:39:23,400
Speaker 1: best in the NFL, and the Texans rush defense is

737
00:39:23,480 --> 00:39:26,040
Speaker 1: just not very good. And we might get Jonathan Taylor

738
00:39:26,120 --> 00:39:30,680
Speaker 1: back this week, so I feel a little bit better

739
00:39:30,719 --> 00:39:34,960
Speaker 1: about it. Home Division faves seven and eight this year

740
00:39:35,360 --> 00:39:40,399
Speaker 1: forty five percent since twenty fifteen. So this is one

741
00:39:40,440 --> 00:39:44,720
Speaker 1: of those we'd always bet that I actually feel okay about.

742
00:39:46,880 --> 00:39:48,480
Speaker 2: I want you to feel better than okay, So we'll

743
00:39:48,480 --> 00:39:49,720
Speaker 2: see if we get you there by Thursday.

744
00:39:49,760 --> 00:39:51,600
Speaker 3: But yeah, this is a game where I really need

745
00:39:51,640 --> 00:39:53,560
Speaker 3: Jonathan Taylor to be back because that, to me is

746
00:39:53,600 --> 00:39:56,120
Speaker 3: a big deal. That's the thing we've seen used to

747
00:39:56,120 --> 00:39:57,800
Speaker 3: struggle with this year is the run. He's one of

748
00:39:57,800 --> 00:40:00,640
Speaker 3: the best running backs in football. We need him, like

749
00:40:00,680 --> 00:40:03,120
Speaker 3: we've seen that there is a difference offensive when he

750
00:40:03,160 --> 00:40:04,680
Speaker 3: is in there with Anthony Richardson, they can do that

751
00:40:04,719 --> 00:40:06,480
Speaker 3: read option like when you have to count for Richardson

752
00:40:06,560 --> 00:40:10,440
Speaker 3: running and Jonathan Taylor, that's a pretty potent one two punch.

753
00:40:10,280 --> 00:40:10,879
Speaker 2: Running the ball.

754
00:40:11,000 --> 00:40:16,759
Speaker 3: And you know, historically in his young career, we've seen

755
00:40:16,840 --> 00:40:19,960
Speaker 3: CJ do well against this Colts defense, but that's with

756
00:40:20,080 --> 00:40:22,520
Speaker 3: Nico Collins like Nico has been a killer of this

757
00:40:22,600 --> 00:40:24,560
Speaker 3: Colts defense. Him not being there, to me is the

758
00:40:24,560 --> 00:40:27,800
Speaker 3: biggest deal. Like he's the reason they've always won or

759
00:40:27,880 --> 00:40:30,799
Speaker 3: kept these games close for Houston in the last two years.

760
00:40:30,840 --> 00:40:33,840
Speaker 3: It's like that combo of CJ and him attacking deep.

761
00:40:34,360 --> 00:40:36,359
Speaker 3: It's been huge. It's not been the same since he's

762
00:40:36,400 --> 00:40:39,279
Speaker 3: been out right, like Tank Dell, Stefan Diggs, they don't

763
00:40:39,320 --> 00:40:41,319
Speaker 3: hit the same as Nico Collins. They don't get open

764
00:40:41,400 --> 00:40:43,719
Speaker 3: like he does, so which is crazy. I think just

765
00:40:43,760 --> 00:40:46,000
Speaker 3: two years ago that guy was you could have got

766
00:40:46,120 --> 00:40:48,359
Speaker 3: Nico Collins for a bag of chips. Like now we're

767
00:40:48,400 --> 00:40:50,440
Speaker 3: talking about him as one of the best deep threats

768
00:40:50,440 --> 00:40:54,799
Speaker 3: in all football. So this matchup, you're talking about us

769
00:40:54,840 --> 00:40:56,560
Speaker 3: just playing the number, and that's the definition of what

770
00:40:56,560 --> 00:40:58,640
Speaker 3: we're doing here, Like we're trusting the number.

771
00:40:59,080 --> 00:41:02,239
Speaker 2: You have to take this. This is same kind of

772
00:41:02,239 --> 00:41:03,120
Speaker 2: thing where the cold snow.

773
00:41:03,200 --> 00:41:06,200
Speaker 3: This is for their season and you know they they

774
00:41:06,280 --> 00:41:08,320
Speaker 3: dropped that first one, and like we joked about, we

775
00:41:08,640 --> 00:41:11,280
Speaker 3: know we got a little lucky, right like Richardson, Oh yeah,

776
00:41:11,320 --> 00:41:13,239
Speaker 3: he cleped completed less than like three percent of his

777
00:41:13,280 --> 00:41:15,239
Speaker 3: passes in that game. And it just somehow me and

778
00:41:15,360 --> 00:41:17,799
Speaker 3: Chad still covered that two and a half number, So

779
00:41:18,800 --> 00:41:20,800
Speaker 3: a little bit of rushing. Well, let here Chad spinning

780
00:41:20,840 --> 00:41:23,560
Speaker 3: the spinning the chamber again, hoping we get lucky with

781
00:41:23,600 --> 00:41:26,279
Speaker 3: this one again. But I do like the matchup for them.

782
00:41:26,600 --> 00:41:29,399
Speaker 3: We talk about and we've nailed this with CJ. Right,

783
00:41:30,080 --> 00:41:31,000
Speaker 3: you back him as a.

784
00:41:30,960 --> 00:41:33,799
Speaker 2: Dog he covered last week, and you fade him as

785
00:41:33,800 --> 00:41:36,360
Speaker 2: a favorite. I mean, he just has struggled as a favorite,

786
00:41:36,400 --> 00:41:39,640
Speaker 2: especially as a big favorite. So yeah, this is.

787
00:41:39,760 --> 00:41:42,879
Speaker 3: A tough one to swallow because we went the six

788
00:41:42,920 --> 00:41:44,480
Speaker 3: and a half. It was six and a half. The

789
00:41:44,520 --> 00:41:46,200
Speaker 3: pros came and they bet it down to the six.

790
00:41:46,239 --> 00:41:48,880
Speaker 3: I don't mind taking the six, but I could easily

791
00:41:48,880 --> 00:41:50,880
Speaker 3: see this game landing on six. It just feels like

792
00:41:50,920 --> 00:41:53,160
Speaker 3: this is gonna be that close of a number that

793
00:41:53,840 --> 00:41:56,480
Speaker 3: it could get there. So my mindset of it though,

794
00:41:56,520 --> 00:41:58,080
Speaker 3: is I could see it keep going down. That's why

795
00:41:58,120 --> 00:42:00,040
Speaker 3: I think you're a smart taking the summer now. I

796
00:42:00,040 --> 00:42:02,120
Speaker 3: could see this easily getting down to four and a

797
00:42:02,200 --> 00:42:05,120
Speaker 3: half by kickoff. It just feels like it's too inflated

798
00:42:05,200 --> 00:42:07,520
Speaker 3: right now, and it could move with the Jonathan Taylor

799
00:42:07,520 --> 00:42:07,920
Speaker 3: and number.

800
00:42:07,920 --> 00:42:09,800
Speaker 2: With Jonathan Taylor being cleared to play.

801
00:42:10,040 --> 00:42:11,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, to me, this is this is where the coaching

802
00:42:12,000 --> 00:42:15,719
Speaker 1: comes into play. And we've loved betting Shane Steichen year

803
00:42:15,800 --> 00:42:18,200
Speaker 1: plus that he's been in the league. The culture five

804
00:42:18,239 --> 00:42:20,799
Speaker 1: and one against the spread this year. They grind these

805
00:42:20,800 --> 00:42:23,600
Speaker 1: games out, and he's really smart when it comes to

806
00:42:23,680 --> 00:42:25,600
Speaker 1: play calling. Even this past week. You know, you look

807
00:42:25,640 --> 00:42:29,359
Speaker 1: at that Dolphins game. They're patient, they stay in it,

808
00:42:29,880 --> 00:42:33,719
Speaker 1: they don't panic, they make play after play, they take

809
00:42:33,760 --> 00:42:38,080
Speaker 1: advantage of mistakes, like they got a winning record that

810
00:42:38,320 --> 00:42:40,920
Speaker 1: like they're not that far behind the Texans. Like if

811
00:42:40,920 --> 00:42:43,799
Speaker 1: they beat the Texans all of a sudden, like they

812
00:42:43,880 --> 00:42:47,880
Speaker 1: might be tied for the lead in the AFC South.

813
00:42:48,040 --> 00:42:51,360
Speaker 1: So it's a it's an interesting matchup, interesting game, A

814
00:42:51,400 --> 00:42:54,240
Speaker 1: lot a lot of sort of narratives in this game.

815
00:42:54,640 --> 00:43:02,279
Speaker 1: Go cults the next one tougher Cleveland and Baltimore. I mean,

816
00:43:02,360 --> 00:43:06,759
Speaker 1: obviously there is just complete chaos in Cleveland. This game

817
00:43:06,800 --> 00:43:09,480
Speaker 1: has dropped considerably. I think it was about ten and

818
00:43:09,480 --> 00:43:11,919
Speaker 1: a half than ten, nine and a half now it's

819
00:43:12,080 --> 00:43:15,480
Speaker 1: nine at most books. It's actually the biggest pros Joe's

820
00:43:15,520 --> 00:43:20,640
Speaker 1: split on the board right now. How do you want

821
00:43:20,640 --> 00:43:23,440
Speaker 1: to play this? I have it as a pass by

822
00:43:23,480 --> 00:43:24,239
Speaker 1: the way, man.

823
00:43:24,200 --> 00:43:27,480
Speaker 3: I'm passive, but where you're supposed to take Cleveland here

824
00:43:27,560 --> 00:43:30,480
Speaker 3: at home? I mean, they can't tell me replacing Watson

825
00:43:30,480 --> 00:43:32,960
Speaker 3: makes this team a worse team. Like he was one

826
00:43:33,000 --> 00:43:36,160
Speaker 3: of the worst quarterbacks we've seen this season. And that's

827
00:43:36,200 --> 00:43:38,960
Speaker 3: just not by your eyes, that's epa per play all.

828
00:43:39,160 --> 00:43:43,160
Speaker 3: This is going to be correctly historically terrible, So worse.

829
00:43:43,000 --> 00:43:46,640
Speaker 1: Than worse than JaMarcus Russell.

830
00:43:47,320 --> 00:43:49,719
Speaker 3: So don't we get a bump, Like, don't we get

831
00:43:49,719 --> 00:43:52,440
Speaker 3: a bump from you know, hopefully jamis our guy, the

832
00:43:52,480 --> 00:43:55,879
Speaker 3: motivator of men, but Chad knows we've had a long

833
00:43:55,960 --> 00:43:59,560
Speaker 3: history of Betton Winston and you don't know what you're

834
00:43:59,560 --> 00:44:02,319
Speaker 3: gonna get, Like we could have a Winston day where

835
00:44:02,320 --> 00:44:04,919
Speaker 3: he's terrible, but I don't know. I like this match

836
00:44:04,960 --> 00:44:07,360
Speaker 3: for him against his secondary, Like this is a pretty

837
00:44:07,360 --> 00:44:08,799
Speaker 3: good match for him to be able to put the

838
00:44:08,800 --> 00:44:09,800
Speaker 3: ball down the field.

839
00:44:09,960 --> 00:44:11,480
Speaker 2: And we already talked about this.

840
00:44:11,560 --> 00:44:13,879
Speaker 3: Ravens team has struggled to close out teams despite them

841
00:44:13,920 --> 00:44:17,319
Speaker 3: being this incredible running team, and you know, they had

842
00:44:17,320 --> 00:44:19,080
Speaker 3: to have a bunch of little bounces go their way

843
00:44:19,160 --> 00:44:21,160
Speaker 3: last night for them to cover that number. Like I

844
00:44:21,160 --> 00:44:23,680
Speaker 3: still can't believe we didn't get that back door. I

845
00:44:23,760 --> 00:44:25,800
Speaker 3: thought for sure we were gonna get there. But the

846
00:44:25,920 --> 00:44:28,800
Speaker 3: same view here, You're right, like you know, the divisional

847
00:44:28,840 --> 00:44:30,920
Speaker 3: home dogs have not been hitting like we're used to.

848
00:44:31,120 --> 00:44:34,400
Speaker 2: I'm a sucker for him. This feels like an inflated

849
00:44:34,480 --> 00:44:36,160
Speaker 2: number ten and a half.

850
00:44:36,280 --> 00:44:37,839
Speaker 3: It would have been a no brainer. You're right, it's

851
00:44:37,880 --> 00:44:39,840
Speaker 3: down to nine in most books. I'm not gonna make

852
00:44:39,880 --> 00:44:41,120
Speaker 3: people take a bad number.

853
00:44:40,920 --> 00:44:55,160
Speaker 1: Here, Matt Mitchell, cue the music. The last thing I'll

854
00:44:55,160 --> 00:45:00,319
Speaker 1: say about this game, we are going to if we

855
00:45:00,360 --> 00:45:04,200
Speaker 1: bet the Browns go against the road faves the past

856
00:45:04,239 --> 00:45:07,160
Speaker 1: two years sixty one percent against the spread. It just

857
00:45:07,600 --> 00:45:10,840
Speaker 1: I know we want to bet it. Is it contest worthy?

858
00:45:11,560 --> 00:45:15,120
Speaker 1: I don't know. I don't know. Here's a really interesting

859
00:45:15,120 --> 00:45:18,000
Speaker 1: game to me. Philadelphia at Cincinnati.

860
00:45:18,080 --> 00:45:19,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, this game.

861
00:45:19,719 --> 00:45:22,120
Speaker 1: Discussed it on Sunday night. It was at two. It's

862
00:45:22,160 --> 00:45:24,759
Speaker 1: moved up to two and a half. Actually got up

863
00:45:24,800 --> 00:45:27,640
Speaker 1: to three at some point Monday night into this morning.

864
00:45:27,680 --> 00:45:30,000
Speaker 1: I saw it this morning at three. Even though the

865
00:45:30,000 --> 00:45:32,680
Speaker 1: majority of the tickets are on the Eagles. I will

866
00:45:32,719 --> 00:45:34,920
Speaker 1: not be fooled by the Eagles win over the Giants.

867
00:45:35,800 --> 00:45:39,279
Speaker 1: I know that statistically the Eagles run game has a

868
00:45:39,480 --> 00:45:43,080
Speaker 1: massive advantage over the Bengals rush defense. But I do

869
00:45:43,120 --> 00:45:46,680
Speaker 1: think the Bengals passing offense has all of the edges

870
00:45:47,080 --> 00:45:49,680
Speaker 1: over the Eagles pass d and while the Eagle but

871
00:45:49,760 --> 00:45:53,200
Speaker 1: the Bengals defense isn't very good. They're actually good at

872
00:45:53,480 --> 00:45:57,959
Speaker 1: two things. They're good at defending the pass on play action,

873
00:45:58,520 --> 00:46:01,760
Speaker 1: and they're good at defending long ball, which is really

874
00:46:01,840 --> 00:46:05,239
Speaker 1: how the Eagles can win games, especially with Aj Brown back.

875
00:46:05,320 --> 00:46:07,560
Speaker 1: So to me, I'm back and Joe Burrow is a

876
00:46:07,600 --> 00:46:08,320
Speaker 1: short favorite.

877
00:46:08,960 --> 00:46:11,720
Speaker 3: It's fair I gotta read on this one. Bengals demir

878
00:46:11,880 --> 00:46:14,200
Speaker 3: just a bad team that's been lucky and fortunate in

879
00:46:14,200 --> 00:46:14,760
Speaker 3: their wins.

880
00:46:16,120 --> 00:46:17,319
Speaker 2: How many wins do they have this year?

881
00:46:17,400 --> 00:46:21,000
Speaker 1: Chad three, the two or three? Three?

882
00:46:21,880 --> 00:46:25,200
Speaker 3: And in those wins against these bad teams that they beat,

883
00:46:25,560 --> 00:46:27,160
Speaker 3: have you had any confidence in this team?

884
00:46:27,320 --> 00:46:27,600
Speaker 1: I have.

885
00:46:30,000 --> 00:46:31,680
Speaker 3: That's why it's like it's I'm just having a tough

886
00:46:31,719 --> 00:46:33,560
Speaker 3: time making this one of our five where it's like

887
00:46:33,640 --> 00:46:36,120
Speaker 3: I get where you're coming from. You're right, Like, I

888
00:46:36,160 --> 00:46:38,560
Speaker 3: like Fine hurts too on the road, especially as an underdog.

889
00:46:38,600 --> 00:46:41,880
Speaker 3: He's not performed well on the trends historically. It's a

890
00:46:41,960 --> 00:46:44,880
Speaker 3: nice spot to take them, but it's just a bad

891
00:46:45,040 --> 00:46:47,640
Speaker 3: Bengals team, and you know, I just have a lot

892
00:46:47,640 --> 00:46:49,799
Speaker 3: of questions right now about them, Like I still can't

893
00:46:49,840 --> 00:46:53,359
Speaker 3: believe we didn't cover last week. And that's what I'm

894
00:46:53,360 --> 00:46:55,800
Speaker 3: fearful of right now, is they're getting a flukey bump

895
00:46:55,800 --> 00:46:58,359
Speaker 3: here where at least the Eagles. You know, you can't

896
00:46:58,360 --> 00:47:00,960
Speaker 3: say he dominated that game against the Giants. You really

897
00:47:01,000 --> 00:47:03,239
Speaker 3: can't say that for that Bengals game, Like they just

898
00:47:04,120 --> 00:47:06,279
Speaker 3: they let teams hang around too much. So yeah, if

899
00:47:06,320 --> 00:47:09,600
Speaker 3: this was three, I'd probably end up taking the Eagles.

900
00:47:09,600 --> 00:47:11,239
Speaker 3: But at two and a half, two, I just don't

901
00:47:11,239 --> 00:47:12,200
Speaker 3: have a read on this one.

902
00:47:12,640 --> 00:47:14,319
Speaker 1: It's rare that you pass on a game.

903
00:47:15,760 --> 00:47:16,520
Speaker 2: I won't pass on.

904
00:47:16,600 --> 00:47:18,760
Speaker 3: I'll eventually get to a spot where I'll bet whatever

905
00:47:18,800 --> 00:47:21,759
Speaker 3: my model says. But right now, like you know, it

906
00:47:21,800 --> 00:47:23,680
Speaker 3: should be minus three, so I think I should take

907
00:47:23,719 --> 00:47:27,160
Speaker 3: the Bengals. It's just, man, they just have looked so bad.

908
00:47:27,840 --> 00:47:31,759
Speaker 3: It's crazy, like just defensively everything about them, Like you said,

909
00:47:31,840 --> 00:47:33,200
Speaker 3: you can run it on them, and that's what the

910
00:47:33,200 --> 00:47:36,000
Speaker 3: Eagles want to do. So I'm with you, though, It's

911
00:47:36,080 --> 00:47:37,200
Speaker 3: like I know, in.

912
00:47:37,160 --> 00:47:38,680
Speaker 2: The back of my mind I probably should take this

913
00:47:38,719 --> 00:47:40,600
Speaker 2: Bengals team here at a good number two and a half.

914
00:47:41,600 --> 00:47:44,040
Speaker 1: I like lou An Arumo. I think they're going to

915
00:47:44,080 --> 00:47:46,799
Speaker 1: turn it around. I think they've had injuries, They've brought

916
00:47:46,800 --> 00:47:49,080
Speaker 1: in new players who are getting adjusted to the system.

917
00:47:49,840 --> 00:47:54,200
Speaker 1: He'll he'll find his spots against the Egos. He'll dial

918
00:47:54,280 --> 00:47:56,760
Speaker 1: up the exact right blitz at the exact right time.

919
00:47:57,719 --> 00:47:59,840
Speaker 1: And I'm also betting, by the way, it's going to

920
00:47:59,880 --> 00:48:03,799
Speaker 1: be a close game. I do believe Evan McPherson from

921
00:48:03,840 --> 00:48:07,360
Speaker 1: sixty yards is a pretty good opportunity to cover a

922
00:48:07,400 --> 00:48:10,000
Speaker 1: two to two and a half point spread. That's fair

923
00:48:11,000 --> 00:48:15,439
Speaker 1: Buffalo with Seattle this one. Seattle's a three point dog

924
00:48:15,480 --> 00:48:19,400
Speaker 1: at home. I'm completely torn on this one. So if

925
00:48:19,440 --> 00:48:23,040
Speaker 1: you have strong opinions, fire away, because I got I

926
00:48:23,080 --> 00:48:27,360
Speaker 1: have no edge that I can see in the number,

927
00:48:27,520 --> 00:48:30,239
Speaker 1: Like it's to me, it's lined accurately.

928
00:48:31,239 --> 00:48:32,319
Speaker 2: Yeah, and it's another game again.

929
00:48:32,360 --> 00:48:34,919
Speaker 3: I was gonna make Simon says, but the DK metcalf news,

930
00:48:34,920 --> 00:48:37,040
Speaker 3: that's what's honestly scared me off. Like that's such a

931
00:48:37,040 --> 00:48:40,600
Speaker 3: big deal of taking him away from this offense.

932
00:48:40,680 --> 00:48:42,719
Speaker 2: But I like Seahawks.

933
00:48:42,800 --> 00:48:44,440
Speaker 3: I like plus three at home, and you know we

934
00:48:44,520 --> 00:48:46,520
Speaker 3: talked a little bit earlier today, Jef. I mean, and

935
00:48:46,560 --> 00:48:49,600
Speaker 3: you about Josh Allen, and you know, people asking why

936
00:48:49,640 --> 00:48:53,560
Speaker 3: he's not the main guy for MVP. He's lost the

937
00:48:53,640 --> 00:48:55,719
Speaker 3: good teams, like he lost to Houston, he lost to

938
00:48:55,760 --> 00:48:57,680
Speaker 3: this Ravens team, and he's beat up on bad teams.

939
00:48:57,680 --> 00:49:01,080
Speaker 3: Do we think Seattle he was leading the NFC West

940
00:49:01,160 --> 00:49:03,680
Speaker 3: right now? Are they a bad team? I don't think so,

941
00:49:03,960 --> 00:49:04,800
Speaker 3: but I don't know how.

942
00:49:04,680 --> 00:49:05,279
Speaker 2: Good they are.

943
00:49:05,360 --> 00:49:08,000
Speaker 3: That's the fear here. It's like they're kind of an

944
00:49:08,000 --> 00:49:10,399
Speaker 3: in between team where it's like we think they're all right,

945
00:49:10,480 --> 00:49:12,879
Speaker 3: but you don't really believe in them, Like we don't

946
00:49:12,880 --> 00:49:15,879
Speaker 3: really think they're gonna actually win this division. They're better

947
00:49:15,920 --> 00:49:18,520
Speaker 3: than the forty nine ers, but they could, like they

948
00:49:18,520 --> 00:49:20,840
Speaker 3: stay healthy and things keep breaking their way.

949
00:49:21,160 --> 00:49:22,640
Speaker 2: They're not that bad of a team.

950
00:49:22,760 --> 00:49:25,520
Speaker 3: So I'll take the three because I do think offensively

951
00:49:25,560 --> 00:49:28,799
Speaker 3: they can attack this Bill's defense. And you know, at

952
00:49:28,840 --> 00:49:31,640
Speaker 3: the end of the day, Josh Allen has to start

953
00:49:31,680 --> 00:49:34,160
Speaker 3: turning the ball over. This is fucking crazy at this point,

954
00:49:34,239 --> 00:49:35,480
Speaker 3: Like are we all going crazier?

955
00:49:35,520 --> 00:49:36,520
Speaker 2: I'm going crazy about it.

956
00:49:36,520 --> 00:49:40,080
Speaker 3: It's like this guy has just been total, totally different

957
00:49:40,120 --> 00:49:42,920
Speaker 3: this year, not forcing the ball in the red zone,

958
00:49:43,080 --> 00:49:45,239
Speaker 3: and I think we're obviously due for Hi to have

959
00:49:45,320 --> 00:49:48,560
Speaker 3: a couple of turnovers. I also think this is gonna

960
00:49:48,560 --> 00:49:50,080
Speaker 3: be one of the bigger public plays of the week.

961
00:49:50,120 --> 00:49:51,799
Speaker 3: I just can see the public coming and really heavy

962
00:49:51,840 --> 00:49:55,040
Speaker 3: on this Bills team after that massive win last week.

963
00:49:55,120 --> 00:49:57,960
Speaker 2: So be patient. Might be able to get us a

964
00:49:58,000 --> 00:50:00,000
Speaker 2: three and a half on this Seahawks number.

965
00:50:01,280 --> 00:50:05,959
Speaker 1: I'm looking to see what the betting percentages are right

966
00:50:06,000 --> 00:50:10,280
Speaker 1: now on this game. It looks like, yeah, we got

967
00:50:10,520 --> 00:50:14,360
Speaker 1: it's interesting fifty eight percent of the tickets, but eighty

968
00:50:14,520 --> 00:50:17,000
Speaker 1: six percent of the money, which tells you a little

969
00:50:17,000 --> 00:50:19,400
Speaker 1: bit that when there's that much the wise guys are

970
00:50:19,440 --> 00:50:23,120
Speaker 1: coming in. I'm Buffalo right now as well. Is what

971
00:50:23,160 --> 00:50:23,719
Speaker 1: that says to.

972
00:50:23,680 --> 00:50:27,200
Speaker 3: Me, Big Andrew Dedica. I mean, that is definitely a

973
00:50:27,200 --> 00:50:29,360
Speaker 3: big deal for that offense and what they want to do.

974
00:50:29,480 --> 00:50:32,479
Speaker 3: But it's honestly, do you really believe in this Bills team? Because,

975
00:50:32,520 --> 00:50:35,440
Speaker 3: like I just said, they've struggled against good teams, but

976
00:50:35,480 --> 00:50:38,239
Speaker 3: they've dominated bad teams.

977
00:50:38,239 --> 00:50:39,480
Speaker 2: Definitely an interesting matchup.

978
00:50:39,600 --> 00:50:42,880
Speaker 1: So where do you think of Seattle? That's really honestly,

979
00:50:43,800 --> 00:50:46,440
Speaker 1: New Orleans is visiting the Los Angeles Chargers gave one

980
00:50:46,480 --> 00:50:51,080
Speaker 1: away their seven and a half point favorites at home. Look,

981
00:50:51,640 --> 00:50:54,280
Speaker 1: this is a pro joe game in favor of the Saints.

982
00:50:54,280 --> 00:50:57,399
Speaker 1: The wise guys are betting the Saints here. I think

983
00:50:57,440 --> 00:50:59,759
Speaker 1: the key question is does anyone think the Chargers can

984
00:50:59,800 --> 00:51:06,680
Speaker 1: cut a seven point spread? Because the Saints they're a

985
00:51:06,719 --> 00:51:07,200
Speaker 1: train wreck?

986
00:51:07,360 --> 00:51:07,440
Speaker 2: Right?

987
00:51:07,880 --> 00:51:10,520
Speaker 1: You know? You know I love to read Bill Barnwell.

988
00:51:10,920 --> 00:51:14,879
Speaker 1: He did a column yesterday about the teams that are

989
00:51:14,920 --> 00:51:19,279
Speaker 1: performing worst in the NFL, whose situation is the worst

990
00:51:19,480 --> 00:51:22,720
Speaker 1: going forward? And you know, he talked about the Giants,

991
00:51:22,760 --> 00:51:25,440
Speaker 1: he talked about the Panthers, and he talked about a

992
00:51:25,440 --> 00:51:28,520
Speaker 1: couple other teams, the Titans. He also talked about the Saints.

993
00:51:28,800 --> 00:51:32,040
Speaker 1: His conclusion was that the Saints were actually in the

994
00:51:32,120 --> 00:51:38,000
Speaker 1: worst scenario between their cap space, between their performance, between

995
00:51:38,040 --> 00:51:41,919
Speaker 1: the pieces they have in house. It's hard to find

996
00:51:41,960 --> 00:51:43,560
Speaker 1: a lot to like about this team right now.

997
00:51:44,640 --> 00:51:44,880
Speaker 2: I know.

998
00:51:44,960 --> 00:51:47,200
Speaker 3: And the books were smart to make it this high

999
00:51:47,200 --> 00:51:49,200
Speaker 3: of a number, because it makes you tempted to take

1000
00:51:49,239 --> 00:51:51,400
Speaker 3: the Saints team just because who are the Chargers to

1001
00:51:51,480 --> 00:51:52,480
Speaker 3: get to this many points?

1002
00:51:52,560 --> 00:51:52,799
Speaker 2: Right?

1003
00:51:52,960 --> 00:51:55,520
Speaker 3: And it makes me think back that when they played

1004
00:51:55,520 --> 00:51:58,400
Speaker 3: the Panthers, Remember that that was a huge spread and

1005
00:51:58,440 --> 00:52:00,440
Speaker 3: they dominated them, so I'm not get.

1006
00:52:00,280 --> 00:52:00,799
Speaker 2: Sucked into it.

1007
00:52:00,800 --> 00:52:03,480
Speaker 3: I'll actually take their Chargers here. If there's a couple

1008
00:52:03,480 --> 00:52:05,280
Speaker 3: of sevens out there, I just go grab the seven.

1009
00:52:05,960 --> 00:52:07,880
Speaker 3: But I told you're gonna be super chocky. This is

1010
00:52:07,880 --> 00:52:10,560
Speaker 3: an easy team for you. Just take their money line

1011
00:52:10,560 --> 00:52:12,520
Speaker 3: and it's a desperate team like the Jets money line,

1012
00:52:12,520 --> 00:52:14,200
Speaker 3: and put them together like there's a lot you can

1013
00:52:14,239 --> 00:52:16,560
Speaker 3: do with that and try to avoid this spread number.

1014
00:52:16,600 --> 00:52:19,080
Speaker 3: But for this show where we only pick the spread,

1015
00:52:19,840 --> 00:52:21,680
Speaker 3: I'm gonna I'm gonna go with the Chargers here. It's

1016
00:52:21,719 --> 00:52:24,360
Speaker 3: just I'm not gonna get sucked in by their temptation.

1017
00:52:24,440 --> 00:52:27,600
Speaker 3: I think the Chargers defense, hopefully get Bosa back, there'll

1018
00:52:27,600 --> 00:52:30,319
Speaker 3: be a difference maker. And then offensively, they had no

1019
00:52:30,400 --> 00:52:33,160
Speaker 3: receivers in that game against the Cardinals, so hopefully maybe

1020
00:52:33,160 --> 00:52:35,440
Speaker 3: get a couple more guys back on the receiving corps

1021
00:52:35,480 --> 00:52:36,880
Speaker 3: and that's gonna be the difference.

1022
00:52:36,960 --> 00:52:40,160
Speaker 2: Right. Like we've seen Herbert as much praised in Love,

1023
00:52:40,160 --> 00:52:42,279
Speaker 2: we would want to get him. You can't go out

1024
00:52:42,280 --> 00:52:44,520
Speaker 2: there with just guys off the street like he needs,

1025
00:52:44,520 --> 00:52:47,080
Speaker 2: Like you know, Jalen Rager when he caught that ball,

1026
00:52:47,080 --> 00:52:48,359
Speaker 2: I don't know if you saw that he fumbled out

1027
00:52:48,360 --> 00:52:50,759
Speaker 2: of the back of the end zone. Yeah, it's just

1028
00:52:50,800 --> 00:52:53,240
Speaker 2: like that's when you know you're down the badest of battle.

1029
00:52:53,239 --> 00:52:55,840
Speaker 2: You got Jalen Rager in there making those kind of plays.

1030
00:52:55,880 --> 00:52:59,160
Speaker 2: So yeah, it's it is tempting the Saints, So I'm

1031
00:52:59,160 --> 00:53:00,919
Speaker 2: not gonna get sucked in. I'll take the Chargers here.

1032
00:53:01,440 --> 00:53:05,120
Speaker 1: Jalen Rager the receiver drafted by the Eagles instead of

1033
00:53:05,239 --> 00:53:06,000
Speaker 1: Justin Jefferson.

1034
00:53:06,480 --> 00:53:07,160
Speaker 2: Thanks, Chad.

1035
00:53:07,440 --> 00:53:11,759
Speaker 1: Don't forget. It's a classic. It's a classic clip in

1036
00:53:11,880 --> 00:53:17,440
Speaker 1: the social medias. Is the Vikings draft room going crazy

1037
00:53:17,920 --> 00:53:21,640
Speaker 1: when they realized the Eagles took Jalen Rager instead of

1038
00:53:21,800 --> 00:53:23,040
Speaker 1: Justin Jefferson.

1039
00:53:23,320 --> 00:53:25,279
Speaker 2: It's crazy. And Minnesota has been to a super Bowl

1040
00:53:25,360 --> 00:53:30,480
Speaker 2: since then. Oh wait, that's the Eagles. Sorry, wow, Yeah,

1041
00:53:30,520 --> 00:53:31,080
Speaker 2: I'm not better.

1042
00:53:31,760 --> 00:53:39,840
Speaker 1: Jesus coming after me a little bit. All right, Chicago Bears,

1043
00:53:40,160 --> 00:53:42,640
Speaker 1: there we go. You one and a half point favorites

1044
00:53:43,239 --> 00:53:45,680
Speaker 1: against the Washington Commanders on the road.

1045
00:53:46,080 --> 00:53:48,880
Speaker 2: And would you say Sunday night, Chad.

1046
00:53:48,400 --> 00:53:49,640
Speaker 1: I said, on Sunday night.

1047
00:53:50,040 --> 00:53:50,560
Speaker 2: There you go.

1048
00:53:51,000 --> 00:53:54,120
Speaker 1: I said it on Sunday night. I was looking at

1049
00:53:54,120 --> 00:53:56,560
Speaker 1: the numbers. We go over this on the Sunday show,

1050
00:53:57,239 --> 00:53:59,239
Speaker 1: watch it in the app, watch it on YouTube. If

1051
00:53:59,280 --> 00:54:02,160
Speaker 1: you're not this is what you missed. The Bears were

1052
00:54:02,160 --> 00:54:05,880
Speaker 1: one and a half point underdogs on Sunday night. I

1053
00:54:06,000 --> 00:54:08,879
Speaker 1: was so astonished by this and so distracted. I tried

1054
00:54:08,920 --> 00:54:12,319
Speaker 1: betting it during the show, and it was off the

1055
00:54:12,360 --> 00:54:15,200
Speaker 1: board at two of the three books here in Connecticut.

1056
00:54:15,200 --> 00:54:16,799
Speaker 1: I got it at one and a half at one

1057
00:54:16,800 --> 00:54:19,160
Speaker 1: of the books before it came off the board again

1058
00:54:20,200 --> 00:54:22,080
Speaker 1: and then reopened with the Bears at two and a half.

1059
00:54:22,280 --> 00:54:24,840
Speaker 1: Because of the Jade and Daniels news, right like, this

1060
00:54:25,000 --> 00:54:28,600
Speaker 1: was supposed to be Caleb and Jayden and two quarterbacks

1061
00:54:28,719 --> 00:54:31,080
Speaker 1: who are doing incredibly well as rookies one and two

1062
00:54:31,120 --> 00:54:34,680
Speaker 1: in the draft. We don't know he's week to week.

1063
00:54:34,800 --> 00:54:37,560
Speaker 1: It could be Marcus Mariota instead of Jade and Daniels.

1064
00:54:38,080 --> 00:54:43,279
Speaker 1: That's why the numbers moved, Like should we be trying

1065
00:54:43,280 --> 00:54:44,359
Speaker 1: to middle this right now?

1066
00:54:45,400 --> 00:54:47,120
Speaker 2: I as gonna say, you definitely have that option.

1067
00:54:48,520 --> 00:54:51,600
Speaker 3: I'm not gonna do anything yet with this because I'm

1068
00:54:51,719 --> 00:54:53,800
Speaker 3: just hoping that this does get up to three and

1069
00:54:53,840 --> 00:54:56,439
Speaker 3: then I'll hit try to hit the middle. But you're right,

1070
00:54:56,680 --> 00:54:58,680
Speaker 3: like it's tempting already at two and a half. We

1071
00:54:58,719 --> 00:55:01,040
Speaker 3: already talked about how key of a number two is.

1072
00:55:01,120 --> 00:55:04,640
Speaker 3: But yeah, I told you I like the Bears just

1073
00:55:04,640 --> 00:55:06,719
Speaker 3: because of their defense in this matchup. So even at

1074
00:55:06,760 --> 00:55:08,560
Speaker 3: minus two and a half, if you missed the party,

1075
00:55:08,600 --> 00:55:10,640
Speaker 3: I still don't think that's a bad number to grab

1076
00:55:10,640 --> 00:55:14,040
Speaker 3: his sbarraste if it is Marcus Mariota. Like we talked

1077
00:55:14,040 --> 00:55:16,920
Speaker 3: about all the regression that was coming for that that team,

1078
00:55:17,000 --> 00:55:20,600
Speaker 3: and you know Washington where they were nine for nine

1079
00:55:20,600 --> 00:55:21,560
Speaker 3: on fourth downs.

1080
00:55:21,719 --> 00:55:23,560
Speaker 2: That's not sustainable.

1081
00:55:24,440 --> 00:55:27,520
Speaker 3: They basically every time on third down that'd say it was,

1082
00:55:28,080 --> 00:55:30,960
Speaker 3: you know, third and seven, he wouldn't just get the

1083
00:55:31,040 --> 00:55:33,480
Speaker 3: first down Daniels, He'd get like twenty five to thirty

1084
00:55:33,560 --> 00:55:35,399
Speaker 3: yards either passing or running the ball.

1085
00:55:35,800 --> 00:55:37,759
Speaker 2: It was just so extreme. We knew it was gonna

1086
00:55:37,760 --> 00:55:38,439
Speaker 2: come back down.

1087
00:55:38,600 --> 00:55:42,920
Speaker 3: And you know, when Mariota came in, the Panthers already

1088
00:55:42,920 --> 00:55:44,640
Speaker 3: giving up on that point, right they were down twenty

1089
00:55:44,719 --> 00:55:48,960
Speaker 3: to nothing. He is just bad, Like there's a reason

1090
00:55:49,000 --> 00:55:52,200
Speaker 3: he is a backup where uh, he makes the wrong reads,

1091
00:55:52,200 --> 00:55:54,560
Speaker 3: he's inconsistent, he holds onto the ball for too long,

1092
00:55:54,760 --> 00:55:57,279
Speaker 3: and his first thing, even though he's been in the

1093
00:55:57,320 --> 00:55:59,839
Speaker 3: league this long, his first read is always to run

1094
00:55:59,880 --> 00:56:02,000
Speaker 3: the ball. He just wants to run the ball. And

1095
00:56:02,040 --> 00:56:04,880
Speaker 3: I do think you guys can QB spy him just

1096
00:56:05,200 --> 00:56:07,840
Speaker 3: there's just ways. I do think the Bears tackle and

1097
00:56:07,880 --> 00:56:11,320
Speaker 3: then offensively, this is a great matchup like Washington defense

1098
00:56:11,360 --> 00:56:13,200
Speaker 3: by no, it means is good. Like the reason they've

1099
00:56:13,200 --> 00:56:15,600
Speaker 3: been good this year is they've had big, big leads

1100
00:56:15,600 --> 00:56:18,319
Speaker 3: where they can just rush the like rush the QB right,

1101
00:56:18,320 --> 00:56:20,680
Speaker 3: That's been the key for them. It's not getting be

1102
00:56:20,680 --> 00:56:23,680
Speaker 3: the same here for this Bears matchup. So it's stinks

1103
00:56:23,680 --> 00:56:26,080
Speaker 3: coming in honestly, Like the look ahead, I was like, oh,

1104
00:56:26,080 --> 00:56:28,720
Speaker 3: we'll get a nice number back in this Jayde Daniels

1105
00:56:28,719 --> 00:56:31,839
Speaker 3: team against this overhype Bears team. Now Bears coming off

1106
00:56:31,880 --> 00:56:34,760
Speaker 3: of buye into this game. To me, it's all Bears

1107
00:56:34,840 --> 00:56:36,600
Speaker 3: right now. It's just a nice break for them. So

1108
00:56:37,400 --> 00:56:39,040
Speaker 3: I would take the Bears now in minus two and

1109
00:56:39,040 --> 00:56:40,520
Speaker 3: a half before this moves up to three. I can

1110
00:56:40,600 --> 00:56:43,799
Speaker 3: just see this keep going up, especially once we get

1111
00:56:43,800 --> 00:56:47,120
Speaker 3: official news Jayden Daniels out. It's like this, This feels

1112
00:56:47,160 --> 00:56:49,040
Speaker 3: like by Sunday, this is a three and a half number.

1113
00:56:49,640 --> 00:56:52,560
Speaker 1: Interesting. I did not see that coming.

1114
00:56:52,960 --> 00:56:55,319
Speaker 3: I wanted to be on Washington but I just I'm

1115
00:56:55,320 --> 00:56:57,520
Speaker 3: more I watch Mariota, especially when I watch old tape

1116
00:56:57,520 --> 00:56:59,680
Speaker 3: of them from the past two years. I'm just like, man,

1117
00:56:59,800 --> 00:57:01,759
Speaker 3: the there ain't like this guy.

1118
00:57:01,760 --> 00:57:04,319
Speaker 2: I went to McVeigh and got fixed. This is no

1119
00:57:04,400 --> 00:57:08,719
Speaker 2: Baker situation. There is no fixing this Mariota all right.

1120
00:57:09,040 --> 00:57:11,799
Speaker 1: Well, based on that, here's what I know in the

1121
00:57:11,840 --> 00:57:17,360
Speaker 1: past forty eight hours since the games ended on Sunday.

1122
00:57:17,400 --> 00:57:20,760
Speaker 1: So less than that, I know that I've spent part

1123
00:57:20,760 --> 00:57:23,919
Speaker 1: of my day reviewing our results for the per seven

1124
00:57:24,120 --> 00:57:27,600
Speaker 1: for the first seven weeks and seeing the one area

1125
00:57:27,720 --> 00:57:30,600
Speaker 1: where we are fifteen games below five hundred that is

1126
00:57:30,680 --> 00:57:33,400
Speaker 1: basically the difference in our season. And I know now

1127
00:57:33,440 --> 00:57:37,760
Speaker 1: that you've spent time watching past video of Marcus Mariota,

1128
00:57:38,120 --> 00:57:42,680
Speaker 1: which says everything about how miserable our days have been

1129
00:57:43,080 --> 00:57:45,959
Speaker 1: in the past twenty four I loved it to forty

1130
00:57:45,960 --> 00:57:51,800
Speaker 1: eight hours. In addition to watching the box giveaway a

1131
00:57:51,880 --> 00:57:56,320
Speaker 1: game and by the way, not changing our pick to

1132
00:57:56,360 --> 00:57:59,360
Speaker 1: the Cardinals only because we knew as soon as we

1133
00:57:59,400 --> 00:58:02,200
Speaker 1: did that we lose the Cardinals and win the Bucks.

1134
00:58:02,400 --> 00:58:06,120
Speaker 1: So it's been a roller coaster of emotions. And I

1135
00:58:06,160 --> 00:58:07,760
Speaker 1: agree with you, by the way, I loved it too,

1136
00:58:07,960 --> 00:58:11,280
Speaker 1: as like physically painful and as much of a nightmare

1137
00:58:11,320 --> 00:58:13,160
Speaker 1: as it was to see it. I love kind of

1138
00:58:13,200 --> 00:58:18,880
Speaker 1: knowing the answer. So I'm with you. We're Gluttons. Carolina

1139
00:58:18,880 --> 00:58:22,240
Speaker 1: at Denver, Carolina last and pressure rate last and sack right.

1140
00:58:23,560 --> 00:58:26,880
Speaker 1: The worst defense in the NFL since two thousand and

1141
00:58:26,880 --> 00:58:31,000
Speaker 1: seven when it comes to points allowed per play. Only

1142
00:58:31,040 --> 00:58:34,640
Speaker 1: two defenses overall that have been worse in the past

1143
00:58:34,640 --> 00:58:39,320
Speaker 1: five years twenty nineteen Falcons twenty twenty Raiders Denver.

1144
00:58:40,080 --> 00:58:41,160
Speaker 2: Don waste time on it.

1145
00:58:41,800 --> 00:58:43,440
Speaker 1: Okay, numbers I supposed to take.

1146
00:58:43,440 --> 00:58:45,880
Speaker 3: The Panthers don't even fucking listen to me and Chad,

1147
00:58:45,880 --> 00:58:48,360
Speaker 3: listen to the guy on twitterroom messages me every week.

1148
00:58:48,760 --> 00:58:50,880
Speaker 2: Panthers are now one and six against the spread.

1149
00:58:51,480 --> 00:58:53,959
Speaker 1: Let's get to it. Let's get to it. We haven't

1150
00:58:53,960 --> 00:58:57,120
Speaker 1: discussed this. You've said you had a couple different options

1151
00:58:57,120 --> 00:58:59,560
Speaker 1: for Simon says. I have a feeling this is going

1152
00:58:59,600 --> 00:59:02,640
Speaker 1: to be it. It's in the city at Las Vegas.

1153
00:59:02,840 --> 00:59:05,920
Speaker 1: The Raiders are at ten. It moved from nine and

1154
00:59:05,920 --> 00:59:09,520
Speaker 1: a half and back to ten. Yeah, take it away.

1155
00:59:10,560 --> 00:59:12,920
Speaker 3: So I going to remember that video of that Chiefs

1156
00:59:12,920 --> 00:59:16,959
Speaker 3: team when the Bears traded up and passed on taking

1157
00:59:17,080 --> 00:59:19,240
Speaker 3: my homes and took mitche or.

1158
00:59:19,440 --> 00:59:22,040
Speaker 2: No, I won't talk about that video. I'm just messing

1159
00:59:21,680 --> 00:59:23,280
Speaker 2: with No.

1160
00:59:23,440 --> 00:59:26,320
Speaker 3: We're people hate it. We're we gotta take the Raiders here.

1161
00:59:26,360 --> 00:59:27,680
Speaker 3: This is way too big of a number.

1162
00:59:27,720 --> 00:59:29,360
Speaker 2: This is no.

1163
00:59:30,120 --> 00:59:32,960
Speaker 3: I I got number one for if Simon says, just

1164
00:59:32,960 --> 00:59:35,040
Speaker 3: because I do think Chad, this might keep going up,

1165
00:59:35,800 --> 00:59:38,840
Speaker 3: Like I would not be shocked if this goes above

1166
00:59:38,880 --> 00:59:41,600
Speaker 3: ten and a half, just because it's all Chiefs money.

1167
00:59:41,640 --> 00:59:43,160
Speaker 3: Like you look in the app right now, it's just

1168
00:59:43,240 --> 00:59:46,080
Speaker 3: so much cheaps money. And you know this is the

1169
00:59:46,120 --> 00:59:48,720
Speaker 3: week of ten point teasers, right everyone's gonna do with

1170
00:59:48,760 --> 00:59:51,400
Speaker 3: the lines. They're gonna do whatever Denver and then they'll

1171
00:59:51,400 --> 00:59:54,000
Speaker 3: take the Chiefs and their three teams ten point teaser.

1172
00:59:54,000 --> 00:59:56,440
Speaker 3: It's one of these guys is going to be the

1173
00:59:56,520 --> 00:59:58,520
Speaker 3: break in the chain. And I we talked about. I

1174
00:59:58,600 --> 01:00:01,280
Speaker 3: just think the Raiders here. It's a set up, prime

1175
01:00:01,320 --> 01:00:04,120
Speaker 3: spot for an undefeated team and the Chiefs to lose

1176
01:00:04,160 --> 01:00:06,600
Speaker 3: a game like this just feels like the type of

1177
01:00:06,600 --> 01:00:08,480
Speaker 3: game they lose. Does it not make sense that this

1178
01:00:08,800 --> 01:00:11,360
Speaker 3: terrible Raiders team two of their wins this year would

1179
01:00:11,360 --> 01:00:13,840
Speaker 3: be against the Chiefs and the Ravens. That's just how

1180
01:00:13,880 --> 01:00:17,360
Speaker 3: stupid football usually is, so matchup wise.

1181
01:00:17,160 --> 01:00:22,200
Speaker 1: Except this year. It's that stupid except this year. I know.

1182
01:00:22,240 --> 01:00:25,240
Speaker 3: But the Raiders are not the Patriots and the Titans, right,

1183
01:00:25,280 --> 01:00:27,160
Speaker 3: we can agree on that that they do have some

1184
01:00:27,320 --> 01:00:29,800
Speaker 3: talent and the coaching is a little bit better than.

1185
01:00:30,760 --> 01:00:31,280
Speaker 2: All of that.

1186
01:00:31,680 --> 01:00:36,120
Speaker 1: Yes, but yes, but yeah, they're terrible. I look at

1187
01:00:36,120 --> 01:00:38,800
Speaker 1: this and I see this as the exact kind of game.

1188
01:00:39,600 --> 01:00:43,040
Speaker 1: We have lost sixteen times already this year. It's a

1189
01:00:43,880 --> 01:00:48,720
Speaker 1: number that we historically like. Yeah, it's the spot where

1190
01:00:48,760 --> 01:00:51,080
Speaker 1: we think we have an advantage against the public.

1191
01:00:51,200 --> 01:00:51,440
Speaker 2: We do.

1192
01:00:52,240 --> 01:00:56,600
Speaker 1: We're betting on a combination, not a winning combination this year.

1193
01:00:57,440 --> 01:01:02,400
Speaker 1: Bad coaching, bad quarterback, without standout unit, like a team

1194
01:01:02,440 --> 01:01:03,680
Speaker 1: that doesn't really.

1195
01:01:03,520 --> 01:01:05,760
Speaker 2: Have Rock Bowers is a standout unit.

1196
01:01:05,840 --> 01:01:07,560
Speaker 1: So I'm going to get to that. I'm going to

1197
01:01:07,640 --> 01:01:11,480
Speaker 1: get to that. But like they we we were supposed

1198
01:01:11,480 --> 01:01:14,400
Speaker 1: to like their receivers. They've lost DeVante Adams, jakoben Myers

1199
01:01:14,480 --> 01:01:16,600
Speaker 1: is out. We were supposed to like their defensive line.

1200
01:01:16,680 --> 01:01:21,560
Speaker 1: Max Crosby, Christian Wilkins is out. Minshew didn't even play

1201
01:01:21,560 --> 01:01:25,040
Speaker 1: the whole game last week. Four turnovers, including a fumble

1202
01:01:25,080 --> 01:01:28,040
Speaker 1: return for a touchdown. They have ten turnovers in the

1203
01:01:28,160 --> 01:01:31,280
Speaker 1: past three games, sixteen through the first seven. That's four

1204
01:01:31,280 --> 01:01:34,600
Speaker 1: more than any other team in the NFL.

1205
01:01:34,840 --> 01:01:37,360
Speaker 2: More than there's a reason that numbers ten. What's that,

1206
01:01:37,720 --> 01:01:39,120
Speaker 2: So there's a reason this number is ten.

1207
01:01:39,480 --> 01:01:45,240
Speaker 1: Yeah, well exactly. But here's the problem. Nineteen percent of

1208
01:01:45,280 --> 01:01:49,640
Speaker 1: their drives and in a turnover twenty eighth and third

1209
01:01:49,720 --> 01:01:54,600
Speaker 1: down conversion rate, Like, this is a team that cannot

1210
01:01:55,040 --> 01:02:00,240
Speaker 1: stay on the field and does not hold its possessions year,

1211
01:02:01,480 --> 01:02:03,960
Speaker 1: so it's hard for them to score. And then like

1212
01:02:04,840 --> 01:02:08,040
Speaker 1: they make wacky coaching decisions. Last week it worked out

1213
01:02:08,080 --> 01:02:10,680
Speaker 1: in favor of betters. But Antonio Pierce goes for a

1214
01:02:10,720 --> 01:02:14,040
Speaker 1: field goal twenty fifteen, you know, like he gets the

1215
01:02:14,080 --> 01:02:18,520
Speaker 1: ball back, but no, stupid. Yeah, so there is one

1216
01:02:18,560 --> 01:02:21,200
Speaker 1: salvation and so this is this. I'm glad you brought

1217
01:02:21,200 --> 01:02:26,480
Speaker 1: it up. Brock Bauers is having an other worldly season,

1218
01:02:26,760 --> 01:02:30,360
Speaker 1: like most catches by a rookie tight end since two

1219
01:02:30,400 --> 01:02:37,000
Speaker 1: thousand and Look, the Chiefs cannot defend tight ends. Nope, Kittle, Gileskie,

1220
01:02:37,400 --> 01:02:41,320
Speaker 1: Mike Leski for the Bengals, Isaiah likely. They all had

1221
01:02:41,400 --> 01:02:43,960
Speaker 1: huge games one hundred yards.

1222
01:02:43,920 --> 01:02:48,160
Speaker 2: It's only weakness. What's that It's the only weakness defensively, it's.

1223
01:02:48,040 --> 01:02:51,200
Speaker 1: The only weakness. But is it enough? Like, it's not

1224
01:02:51,320 --> 01:02:54,320
Speaker 1: like the Chiefs haven't been covering even when giving up

1225
01:02:55,360 --> 01:02:59,000
Speaker 1: huge yardage and Mahomes. While he's terrible at a number

1226
01:02:59,040 --> 01:03:03,320
Speaker 1: this big, he's actually nine six and two the past

1227
01:03:03,320 --> 01:03:06,960
Speaker 1: two seasons, so he's trending upward as a favorite of

1228
01:03:07,000 --> 01:03:08,560
Speaker 1: three or more. Yeah.

1229
01:03:08,680 --> 01:03:11,120
Speaker 3: My view of it, though, is just even a bunch

1230
01:03:11,120 --> 01:03:13,640
Speaker 3: of outside the numbers, just the spot, right, This is

1231
01:03:13,680 --> 01:03:15,800
Speaker 3: such a letdown spot for this Chiefs team. After that

1232
01:03:16,240 --> 01:03:18,640
Speaker 3: emotional forty nine ers on the road win, now they're

1233
01:03:18,680 --> 01:03:21,680
Speaker 3: on the road again. Unfortunately, there is zero home field

1234
01:03:21,680 --> 01:03:24,200
Speaker 3: advantage for Las Vegas. There will be more Chiefs fans.

1235
01:03:24,880 --> 01:03:26,680
Speaker 3: We all know that, right, That's just the way that

1236
01:03:26,720 --> 01:03:30,680
Speaker 3: stadium is. It is like the out of town fans come,

1237
01:03:30,720 --> 01:03:34,080
Speaker 3: they buy the home fans tickets and it's a party

1238
01:03:34,080 --> 01:03:34,760
Speaker 3: for a week for them.

1239
01:03:34,840 --> 01:03:35,040
Speaker 2: Right.

1240
01:03:35,120 --> 01:03:39,080
Speaker 3: So obviously that's already we're losing a point and a

1241
01:03:39,120 --> 01:03:41,160
Speaker 3: half of home field. There's no home field here, so

1242
01:03:42,000 --> 01:03:45,480
Speaker 3: I get you're coming from. It's just Mahomes and his turnovers.

1243
01:03:45,560 --> 01:03:47,720
Speaker 3: I just it's hard for me to grasp them winning

1244
01:03:47,840 --> 01:03:50,080
Speaker 3: back to back games by double digits. They're just not

1245
01:03:50,160 --> 01:03:52,560
Speaker 3: this team we're used to of them just beating the

1246
01:03:52,560 --> 01:03:54,720
Speaker 3: crap by These teams run away with it, Right, They're

1247
01:03:54,800 --> 01:03:58,360
Speaker 3: able to have teams keep it close just because them

1248
01:03:58,400 --> 01:04:01,600
Speaker 3: themselves are hard to stay insistent. Right, He's top three

1249
01:04:01,640 --> 01:04:05,040
Speaker 3: receivers are out of this game. It's that has to matter,

1250
01:04:05,400 --> 01:04:06,320
Speaker 3: Like that has to.

1251
01:04:06,240 --> 01:04:08,680
Speaker 2: Matter for this Chiefs team. So I'm with you, chat.

1252
01:04:08,920 --> 01:04:10,720
Speaker 3: If the public hadn't done so well these past two

1253
01:04:10,760 --> 01:04:13,919
Speaker 3: weeks and you hadn't given me that crazy number about

1254
01:04:13,960 --> 01:04:16,400
Speaker 3: us being one sixteen on this exact pick, this would

1255
01:04:16,400 --> 01:04:18,480
Speaker 3: be an absolute smash spot for you. But that's another

1256
01:04:18,520 --> 01:04:20,800
Speaker 3: reason I'm not making it. Simon says, I'm getting a

1257
01:04:20,840 --> 01:04:24,080
Speaker 3: little wiser and not just blatantly making these home divisional

1258
01:04:24,120 --> 01:04:25,360
Speaker 3: dogs my favorite bet.

1259
01:04:25,560 --> 01:04:27,200
Speaker 1: Yeah. Well that, by the way, That's all I want

1260
01:04:27,280 --> 01:04:29,160
Speaker 1: us to do is have that conversation, like if we're

1261
01:04:29,160 --> 01:04:30,600
Speaker 1: going to do this, we might as well take it

1262
01:04:30,640 --> 01:04:33,960
Speaker 1: seriously and like learn about how we do it for

1263
01:04:34,120 --> 01:04:37,040
Speaker 1: this show, and like this this would have been a

1264
01:04:37,080 --> 01:04:40,840
Speaker 1: no brainer EXEC decision or Simon says, or big balls,

1265
01:04:41,000 --> 01:04:45,400
Speaker 1: yeah pick. I'm a feeling we're trying to be smarter

1266
01:04:45,560 --> 01:04:48,920
Speaker 1: about it. Sunday and Night Football Dallas, San Francisco. San

1267
01:04:48,920 --> 01:04:51,400
Speaker 1: Francisco is a four and a half point favorite.

1268
01:04:51,760 --> 01:04:58,520
Speaker 2: The Cowboys are pro Football's glamourgie, dynamic, progressive, and spectacular.

1269
01:04:59,160 --> 01:05:03,000
Speaker 2: Simon says, give me Dallas Cowboys four and ad gotta

1270
01:05:03,080 --> 01:05:09,800
Speaker 2: do it. We do what Simon say pretty right now

1271
01:05:09,800 --> 01:05:14,400
Speaker 2: has lost McCaffrey a yuk and I think Samuel is

1272
01:05:14,440 --> 01:05:16,880
Speaker 2: in the hospital with what's he what's he have?

1273
01:05:17,040 --> 01:05:19,960
Speaker 1: Do you know Deebo has pneumonia? That's the report?

1274
01:05:20,040 --> 01:05:23,440
Speaker 2: Geez yeah. Looking at this matchup, I wanted to be

1275
01:05:23,480 --> 01:05:24,840
Speaker 2: on the forty nine ers. This was going to be

1276
01:05:24,880 --> 01:05:27,720
Speaker 2: a great bounce back spot, especially again to the Cowboys

1277
01:05:27,760 --> 01:05:30,480
Speaker 2: team that we all agree. You know, they struggle against

1278
01:05:30,480 --> 01:05:32,360
Speaker 2: the run. That's what this Horner's team wants to do.

1279
01:05:32,480 --> 01:05:35,840
Speaker 3: But now you've kind of made it that it's all

1280
01:05:35,840 --> 01:05:38,360
Speaker 3: on prety shoulders and we've seen him now struggle with that,

1281
01:05:38,520 --> 01:05:41,640
Speaker 3: right with not just with the turnovers, him not having

1282
01:05:41,640 --> 01:05:44,560
Speaker 3: his guys there. It's a big deal. So to me,

1283
01:05:44,640 --> 01:05:46,880
Speaker 3: this number has I moved enough. I think this gets

1284
01:05:46,920 --> 01:05:50,000
Speaker 3: down to three three and a half by kickoff. It's

1285
01:05:50,120 --> 01:05:53,960
Speaker 3: just a nice spot to back this Dallas team and

1286
01:05:54,200 --> 01:05:57,760
Speaker 3: in a matchup that beforehand was bad for their defense.

1287
01:05:57,840 --> 01:06:00,040
Speaker 3: Now I actually kind of like it, and you know,

1288
01:06:00,160 --> 01:06:01,800
Speaker 3: we might actually get a couple of guys back for

1289
01:06:01,880 --> 01:06:04,200
Speaker 3: them defensively. So just trying to be ahead of the

1290
01:06:04,200 --> 01:06:07,120
Speaker 3: line movement here. We've already seen it open. What was

1291
01:06:07,160 --> 01:06:07,640
Speaker 3: at six?

1292
01:06:07,800 --> 01:06:08,960
Speaker 2: I think Chris gave it out.

1293
01:06:09,120 --> 01:06:13,720
Speaker 1: We saw it like Sunday night. Raybon Uh put in

1294
01:06:13,760 --> 01:06:16,720
Speaker 1: the app that he got Chris. Raybond posted that he

1295
01:06:16,720 --> 01:06:17,800
Speaker 1: got it at six and a half.

1296
01:06:19,400 --> 01:06:20,360
Speaker 2: That five and a half.

1297
01:06:20,480 --> 01:06:23,440
Speaker 1: We only saw the five and a half, and I still.

1298
01:06:23,240 --> 01:06:25,240
Speaker 3: Don't think it's moved enough off all those injuries, Like

1299
01:06:25,920 --> 01:06:27,720
Speaker 3: that's that's a big deal of this offense.

1300
01:06:28,000 --> 01:06:29,040
Speaker 2: That really is.

1301
01:06:29,080 --> 01:06:33,760
Speaker 3: So yeah, Cowboys to keep it close here? How do

1302
01:06:33,800 --> 01:06:35,640
Speaker 3: you not like Doak to keep these games close? Like

1303
01:06:35,720 --> 01:06:38,080
Speaker 3: it's just we've seen it this season, even that Pittsburgh game,

1304
01:06:38,120 --> 01:06:39,280
Speaker 3: like a game I counted him out.

1305
01:06:39,640 --> 01:06:44,439
Speaker 2: He's able to keep teams in close matchups. So yeah,

1306
01:06:44,560 --> 01:06:47,040
Speaker 2: I like this for this Dallas team, this matchup.

1307
01:06:46,720 --> 01:07:00,760
Speaker 1: Wise, last game wen I foot the New York Giants

1308
01:07:00,760 --> 01:07:03,280
Speaker 1: at Pittsburgh Steelers. I just want to remind I want

1309
01:07:03,280 --> 01:07:06,160
Speaker 1: to give people heads up. We will have a very

1310
01:07:06,200 --> 01:07:11,120
Speaker 1: special in season guest later this week, well known person.

1311
01:07:11,840 --> 01:07:15,400
Speaker 1: You have likely followed this person on social watched this

1312
01:07:15,520 --> 01:07:18,680
Speaker 1: person on television, Listen to this person's very popular podcast

1313
01:07:19,160 --> 01:07:20,480
Speaker 1: that happened to be a big fan of the New

1314
01:07:20,520 --> 01:07:23,560
Speaker 1: York Giants. We're excited to have this person on this week.

1315
01:07:23,960 --> 01:07:25,960
Speaker 1: Normally this is when we have to fade the Steelers.

1316
01:07:26,280 --> 01:07:28,680
Speaker 1: Yet the number has gone up, right, You've got a

1317
01:07:28,720 --> 01:07:33,600
Speaker 1: team like the Giants, blowout win, blowout loss playing a

1318
01:07:33,640 --> 01:07:36,520
Speaker 1: team like the Steelers, and a blowout win sixty percent

1319
01:07:36,600 --> 01:07:39,360
Speaker 1: against the spread the past twenty years, Tomlin as a

1320
01:07:39,440 --> 01:07:43,280
Speaker 1: favorite forty seven percent against the spread as a favorite,

1321
01:07:43,760 --> 01:07:44,240
Speaker 1: I don't.

1322
01:07:44,040 --> 01:07:46,040
Speaker 2: Want to hear about the labor pays man. Deliver the

1323
01:07:46,120 --> 01:07:46,680
Speaker 2: damn baby.

1324
01:07:47,080 --> 01:07:49,120
Speaker 1: The reason I didn't like the Giants last week is

1325
01:07:49,120 --> 01:07:52,080
Speaker 1: because their offensive line is terrible, and you got Daniel Jones,

1326
01:07:52,080 --> 01:07:53,920
Speaker 1: And now you've got to ask yourself, he's got a

1327
01:07:53,960 --> 01:07:57,600
Speaker 1: twenty three million dollar injury guarantee for next year. At

1328
01:07:57,600 --> 01:08:00,880
Speaker 1: some point, does Dayball Russell Wilson in this guy and

1329
01:08:00,920 --> 01:08:03,720
Speaker 1: sit him down because he can't keep him healthy and

1330
01:08:03,760 --> 01:08:05,320
Speaker 1: they're gonna have to pay him next year if he

1331
01:08:05,360 --> 01:08:08,959
Speaker 1: gets hurt. So like I don't want to bet this game,

1332
01:08:09,000 --> 01:08:10,880
Speaker 1: and I don't want this in the contest. We're coming

1333
01:08:10,880 --> 01:08:13,520
Speaker 1: down on Monday night and I'm like, so antsy At

1334
01:08:13,560 --> 01:08:16,240
Speaker 1: seven point thirty, I'm sitting on my couch on TikTok

1335
01:08:16,240 --> 01:08:18,479
Speaker 1: for an hour waiting for the freaking game to kick off.

1336
01:08:19,400 --> 01:08:21,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think I think could probably put in the chat.

1337
01:08:21,200 --> 01:08:23,280
Speaker 3: I don't think Daniel Jones has ever won a Night Game,

1338
01:08:23,439 --> 01:08:25,080
Speaker 3: or maybe he's won one, but I just in my

1339
01:08:25,200 --> 01:08:28,519
Speaker 3: recent memory, I can't remember him winning. So he's won

1340
01:08:28,560 --> 01:08:30,080
Speaker 3: one Night Game in his entire career.

1341
01:08:30,439 --> 01:08:33,320
Speaker 2: So he's just bad. I mean that that team is

1342
01:08:33,360 --> 01:08:33,760
Speaker 2: just bad.

1343
01:08:33,800 --> 01:08:36,120
Speaker 3: You're right, like defensively, this is a good matchup for

1344
01:08:36,160 --> 01:08:38,760
Speaker 3: Pittsburgh and this is the number that has steamed up.

1345
01:08:38,760 --> 01:08:40,599
Speaker 2: I think it was three and a half. Now it's

1346
01:08:40,640 --> 01:08:42,800
Speaker 2: up to six and a half. What's gonna stop it.

1347
01:08:43,040 --> 01:08:44,639
Speaker 3: I don't know if any professionals will come in yet

1348
01:08:44,680 --> 01:08:46,479
Speaker 3: and take it, but I could see it keep going

1349
01:08:46,520 --> 01:08:48,800
Speaker 3: up some with you, there's other dogs that I like

1350
01:08:48,880 --> 01:08:53,640
Speaker 3: more than this Giants team, but man, it's it is

1351
01:08:53,720 --> 01:08:56,320
Speaker 3: a nice spot for them with the number because it's

1352
01:08:56,320 --> 01:08:57,400
Speaker 3: probably going to get up to seven.

1353
01:08:57,439 --> 01:08:59,680
Speaker 2: At that point. I'll be tempted to take it, but

1354
01:09:00,080 --> 01:09:01,000
Speaker 2: now I won't make this one.

1355
01:09:00,880 --> 01:09:03,439
Speaker 1: Of our five great spot. We will not put this

1356
01:09:03,479 --> 01:09:05,720
Speaker 1: in the contest because they would have to get to

1357
01:09:05,720 --> 01:09:07,320
Speaker 1: seven and a half. I think for us to do that,

1358
01:09:07,760 --> 01:09:10,320
Speaker 1: it's not going to get there, all right, Exec Decision

1359
01:09:10,400 --> 01:09:13,920
Speaker 1: Colts plus six. Simon says Dallas plus four and a half.

1360
01:09:13,920 --> 01:09:16,439
Speaker 1: We got a nice round number of eight or nine

1361
01:09:16,520 --> 01:09:18,920
Speaker 1: games that we want to review on Thursday. See what

1362
01:09:18,960 --> 01:09:21,800
Speaker 1: the guys have to say. As far as the sharp calls,

1363
01:09:22,120 --> 01:09:25,160
Speaker 1: I'm excited to dig in a little bit more, narrow

1364
01:09:25,160 --> 01:09:28,160
Speaker 1: it down, have our super special guest on the Thursday show.

1365
01:09:28,439 --> 01:09:30,920
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Speaker 1: next episode of the Favorites on the Action Network YouTube

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01:10:10,840 --> 01:10:14,400
Speaker 1: page Thursday, eleven am Eastern to cover our NFL Week

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Speaker 1: eight best bets. Sign up for the contest at Favorites

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Speaker 1: dot actionnetwork dot com. Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods,

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Speaker 1: wherever you get your pods, Rate review, subscribe, leave us

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Speaker 1: five stars, say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift

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01:10:27,360 --> 01:10:42,000
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