WEBVTT - EU's Harkin: Influx Seeking Irish Citizenship Post Brexit (Aud) 0:00:02.160 --> 0:00:05.519 Global business news twenty four hours a day at Bloomberg 0:00:05.600 --> 0:00:08.640 dot Com, the radio, plus Globo Labs, and on your radio. 0:00:08.920 --> 0:00:13.120 This is a Bloomberg Business Flash from Bloomberg World Headquarters 0:00:13.119 --> 0:00:16.520 on Katherine Cownderie. Stocks remain higher and the dollars slipped 0:00:16.520 --> 0:00:19.360 after minutes from the Federal Reserves last meeting did little 0:00:19.360 --> 0:00:22.240 to alter perceptions for the timing of higher interest rates. 0:00:22.560 --> 0:00:25.320 Concerned that fallout from the Brexit vote may spread, drove 0:00:25.360 --> 0:00:28.280 demand for Haven's. The SMP five foundered held games as 0:00:28.280 --> 0:00:31.680 the minutes indicated that May's week jobs report fueled uncertainty 0:00:31.720 --> 0:00:35.120 among FETE officials about the economy, though data since including 0:00:35.120 --> 0:00:39.160 a report on the service industries today helped rekindle investor optimism, 0:00:39.280 --> 0:00:42.199 and investors are awaiting the June employment report due out 0:00:42.240 --> 0:00:44.960 this Friday. We talk to markets every fifteen minutes throughout 0:00:44.960 --> 0:00:47.440 the trading day on Bloomberg Radio. Dell Industrial Average is 0:00:47.560 --> 0:00:50.280 up fifty points a quarter percent, trading at seventeen thousand, 0:00:50.360 --> 0:00:53.440 eight hundred eighty nine. SMP five founded up seven points 0:00:53.479 --> 0:00:55.640 a third of a percent to two thousand ninety five. 0:00:56.000 --> 0:00:58.360 The NASTAC higher by twenty eight point six tenths of 0:00:58.360 --> 0:01:01.320 a percent at forty eight fifty Last, Texas entermedy at 0:01:01.320 --> 0:01:03.480 crude oil up sixty eight cents a barrel one and 0:01:03.520 --> 0:01:06.160 a half percent to forty seven twenty nine. It's black 0:01:06.200 --> 0:01:08.880 old up five dollar seventy cents. Announced a thirteen sixty 0:01:09.240 --> 0:01:11.720 forty ten You a treasury down to thirty seconds with 0:01:11.760 --> 0:01:14.200 the yield of one point three eight percent. And that's 0:01:14.240 --> 0:01:18.560 a Bloomberg Business Flash. Je listening to Taking Style with 0:01:18.720 --> 0:01:23.880 Gin Box and Kathleen Hayes on Bloomberg Radio. Seems these 0:01:23.920 --> 0:01:27.600 days it's hard to overestimate the impact of the UK's 0:01:27.680 --> 0:01:31.440 vote to leave the European Union, the Brexit. Hard to 0:01:31.640 --> 0:01:35.200 estimate overestimate just how much impact this is having around 0:01:35.200 --> 0:01:37.959 the world. Story on the Bloomberg Today that emerging markets 0:01:37.959 --> 0:01:41.560 are extending their losses as concern from some kind of 0:01:41.680 --> 0:01:47.080 contagion UH from Brexit resurfaces. UH. We received a pitch 0:01:47.120 --> 0:01:50.160 today to do a story talking about how other parts 0:01:50.200 --> 0:01:53.360 of Europe will benefit greatly from this Brexit decision. We 0:01:53.400 --> 0:01:55.640 want to bring back someone to the show who we 0:01:55.640 --> 0:01:58.080 spoke to just before the vote, Marian Harkin. She's a 0:01:58.080 --> 0:02:01.720 member of the EU Parliament's Economic and Monetary Affairs committee. 0:02:01.800 --> 0:02:05.200 She's a former member of Ireland's Parliament, to talk to 0:02:05.320 --> 0:02:07.800 us about the fallout from the vote, what's next and 0:02:07.840 --> 0:02:09.680 maybe a little bit on what it means for Ireland 0:02:10.160 --> 0:02:13.519 in welcome back to the show. Thank you, catching delighted 0:02:13.560 --> 0:02:16.640 to be with you. So, as we've seen quoted many 0:02:16.680 --> 0:02:21.919 times in the British press, the UK press, brexit means brexit. Uh, 0:02:22.080 --> 0:02:27.560 what does it mean as the EU tries to move ahead? Well, 0:02:27.680 --> 0:02:30.880 certainly it's we're in Strasbourg here at the moment where 0:02:30.880 --> 0:02:33.679 in the planery session of the Parliament and you walk 0:02:33.720 --> 0:02:36.560 around the corridors cutting and you hear interviews going on 0:02:36.720 --> 0:02:40.239 in different languages. You hear people speaking in different languages, 0:02:40.639 --> 0:02:43.880 and every second or third sentence you hear the word 0:02:44.240 --> 0:02:47.679 brexitst That's all you will understand, because obviously there's over 0:02:47.760 --> 0:02:51.120 twenty languages here. But it just goes to show it's 0:02:51.160 --> 0:02:55.480 on everybody's clips. Everybody is very concerned. It's supposed really 0:02:55.520 --> 0:02:58.000 that there's two impacts we need to look at. We 0:02:58.080 --> 0:03:01.079 need to look at the political impact act for Europe 0:03:01.120 --> 0:03:04.640 and the stability of the European Union, but equally we 0:03:04.760 --> 0:03:08.400 have to look at the economic fallout. And I suppose 0:03:08.520 --> 0:03:13.160 from the political aspect, car Team we see apart from 0:03:13.360 --> 0:03:16.120 the meltdown that's going on in in the UK itself 0:03:16.600 --> 0:03:19.960 within both the Conservative and the Labor Party, but we 0:03:20.040 --> 0:03:24.639 also see, for example, in Hungary, Viktor Orband who's the 0:03:24.639 --> 0:03:27.919 Prime minister, there is having a referendum on the second 0:03:27.960 --> 0:03:32.800 of October on relocation plans for refugees, and that's the 0:03:32.840 --> 0:03:35.400 same day Austria is going back to the polls for 0:03:35.480 --> 0:03:39.560 a rerun of their presidential election. You remember that Coffer, 0:03:39.720 --> 0:03:43.280 the member of the far right Freedom Party, was defeated 0:03:43.280 --> 0:03:48.280 by point zero one percentage of a point and he 0:03:48.360 --> 0:03:51.280 has said in the last day or two that Austria 0:03:51.720 --> 0:03:55.040 should hold a referendum on a YOU membership within one 0:03:55.120 --> 0:03:58.680 year if the block he said, continues to centralize. You've 0:03:58.680 --> 0:04:02.040 got Marine, leapenn and Anson, You've You've got all of those. 0:04:03.080 --> 0:04:06.200 You know that this is part of the political fallout 0:04:06.320 --> 0:04:10.320 and it's giving oxygen if you like to to those 0:04:10.480 --> 0:04:13.360 who would like to see the breakup of the EU 0:04:13.440 --> 0:04:18.920 and who are i suppose supporting very nationalist concerns. And 0:04:18.960 --> 0:04:24.920 then you've got the economic fallout in the UK and Sterling. 0:04:25.480 --> 0:04:27.680 We know where it is. It's it's down I think 0:04:27.680 --> 0:04:30.800 at once thirty at the moment. But I think the 0:04:30.880 --> 0:04:34.279 fact that Mark Kearney said in the last day or two, 0:04:34.839 --> 0:04:36.880 and he is the Governor of the Bank of England, 0:04:37.160 --> 0:04:42.080 that his fears about Brexit had begun to crystallize. That's 0:04:42.200 --> 0:04:45.839 very worrying because we see that different property funds yesterday 0:04:45.839 --> 0:04:49.520 and today have halted redemptions, they're freezing withsdraws. So the 0:04:49.960 --> 0:04:53.080 big concerns about what could happen there. So just a 0:04:53.120 --> 0:04:56.960 great deal of uncertainty all around. And as we know, 0:04:57.080 --> 0:04:59.760 the market craft certainty, but it certainly does not have 0:04:59.880 --> 0:05:03.919 the now Marian. One thing that is not uncertain is 0:05:03.960 --> 0:05:07.240 that lawyers from some of Britain's largest legal firms have 0:05:07.520 --> 0:05:10.279 been looking to register in Ireland in order to protect 0:05:10.320 --> 0:05:13.840 their right to practice in the European Union. Is this 0:05:14.000 --> 0:05:17.280 something that you would continue? You you think will continue 0:05:18.160 --> 0:05:22.039 not only in the legal profession but another professions. I 0:05:22.080 --> 0:05:25.240 think it will because we had the situation just in 0:05:25.279 --> 0:05:28.560 the last few days that Ian Paisley Jr. That's the 0:05:28.600 --> 0:05:33.800 son of a famous Ian Paisley, was advising his constituents 0:05:33.800 --> 0:05:38.200 in Northern Ireland how to apply for Irish citizenship and 0:05:38.279 --> 0:05:40.960 he had the forms for them. So when you see 0:05:41.000 --> 0:05:44.960 that happening, you understand that a lot of people are 0:05:45.000 --> 0:05:47.800 looking for Irish citizenship. I was talking to one of 0:05:47.800 --> 0:05:50.919 our ministers today, he was out in Strasbourg. They don't 0:05:51.000 --> 0:05:55.160 have numbers for those who are applying for Irish citizenship, 0:05:55.279 --> 0:05:59.120 but all he told me was they're certainly looking at 0:05:59.160 --> 0:06:01.520 printing more for because they have run out of them. 0:06:01.600 --> 0:06:04.440 So we are going to see that. And again it's 0:06:04.480 --> 0:06:08.200 the uncertainty. People don't know what the future holds, so 0:06:08.279 --> 0:06:10.760 they want to, if you like, maybe have a pote 0:06:10.760 --> 0:06:14.599 in vote camps. So that's depending on what the outcomes are. 0:06:15.000 --> 0:06:17.320 They then have choices and I think that's what people 0:06:17.320 --> 0:06:20.560 are doing. Well. You know our own Mark Gilbert of 0:06:21.279 --> 0:06:26.320 Bloomberg News. He's a Bloomberg View columnus and he served 0:06:26.640 --> 0:06:29.760 most recently as London Bureau chief and he made it 0:06:29.920 --> 0:06:36.200 very interesting were very interesting column today, suggesting that because 0:06:36.560 --> 0:06:39.920 the EU doesn't have a written constitution, if I'm understanding correctly, 0:06:39.960 --> 0:06:43.279 whether and how Brittain respects the June vote becomes a 0:06:43.320 --> 0:06:47.159 matter of judgment rather than law. Uh. He also notes 0:06:47.360 --> 0:06:50.440 that on Monday, the Austrian Finance Minister, when it's as 0:06:50.440 --> 0:06:53.440 far as suggests UK might not end up leaving, and 0:06:53.640 --> 0:06:56.760 former Prime Minister Tony Blair also cast out on the plebiscite, 0:06:57.040 --> 0:07:00.600 saying a fifty vote to leave isn't binding. What what's 0:07:00.600 --> 0:07:04.560 being talked about me? You well, your your columnist is right. 0:07:05.000 --> 0:07:09.320 We have a treaty. But the Article fifty was included 0:07:09.400 --> 0:07:12.280 in the treaty and the last revision the Lisbon Treaty, 0:07:12.280 --> 0:07:15.000 in fact it was called and that's for the first time, 0:07:15.440 --> 0:07:18.920 gave member states an exit strategy. Up to that, it 0:07:19.080 --> 0:07:22.200 was like, you know, Hotel California, you can never leave 0:07:22.320 --> 0:07:27.560 if you like. But Article fifty applotted a pathway for 0:07:27.800 --> 0:07:31.160 member states to leave the EU, but it's quite vague 0:07:31.480 --> 0:07:36.480 and as of now, nobody can force the UK to 0:07:36.640 --> 0:07:40.440 trigger Article fifty. I think most people will say, look, 0:07:41.000 --> 0:07:45.040 they have to elect a new leader of the Conservative Party. 0:07:45.040 --> 0:07:47.760 We expect that to happen maybe the beginning of September, 0:07:48.160 --> 0:07:50.520 give them four to six weeks, maybe even to the 0:07:50.600 --> 0:07:53.440 end of October. But really they want to be getting 0:07:53.440 --> 0:07:57.040 their act together at that point. I think most reasonable 0:07:57.080 --> 0:08:00.360 people would suggest that that might be the timetables. Buff 0:08:01.120 --> 0:08:03.920 the UK does not have to follow that timetable. Now, 0:08:04.000 --> 0:08:06.200 I'm sure if it were to go to the beginning 0:08:06.200 --> 0:08:09.400 of next year, there would be a lot of concern 0:08:09.480 --> 0:08:14.040 and perhaps even some impatience, perhaps even turning to anger 0:08:14.800 --> 0:08:18.000 if the UK didn't make clear what its intentions were. 0:08:18.040 --> 0:08:21.680 But the ball actually is in their court at the moment. 0:08:21.840 --> 0:08:26.000 But once they trigger this Article fifty, then there are 0:08:26.120 --> 0:08:31.120 two years during which negotiations take place. After that period 0:08:31.200 --> 0:08:35.040 of time, if no agreement is reached, then we have 0:08:35.200 --> 0:08:37.760 no deal with the UK, and there would be in 0:08:37.800 --> 0:08:40.319 the same position. Let's say as China, they would come 0:08:40.400 --> 0:08:44.599 under w t O ROUS and the period could be extended, 0:08:44.880 --> 0:08:48.280 but that would require a unanimous decision of all the 0:08:48.280 --> 0:08:51.200 other twenty seven member states, and you can imagine that 0:08:51.240 --> 0:08:54.360 would be difficult to find. We're speaking with Marian Harkin, 0:08:54.480 --> 0:08:59.400 member of the European Union Parliament's Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee. Marian, 0:08:59.600 --> 0:09:02.000 how do you respond to people that say that the 0:09:02.040 --> 0:09:06.040 European Union needs to be more flexible, not only in 0:09:06.120 --> 0:09:08.880 how it deals with Brexit, but how it deals with 0:09:08.960 --> 0:09:13.440 many of the other issues that are presented themselves. Well, 0:09:13.520 --> 0:09:16.440 I didn't ask answer your previous question at him. When 0:09:16.480 --> 0:09:19.160 you asked me about Ireland, and I just briefly say 0:09:19.160 --> 0:09:23.080 one or two sentences for us, there are significant threats 0:09:24.120 --> 0:09:27.040 of our exports go to the UK and Northern Ireland, 0:09:27.640 --> 0:09:31.600 and about half of those are from Sames and from 0:09:31.640 --> 0:09:34.000 the agry food sector, so you can see that they are, 0:09:34.480 --> 0:09:38.120 if you like, overexposed, and no matter what happens in 0:09:38.160 --> 0:09:40.720 the intervening two years, we're not going to turn that 0:09:40.760 --> 0:09:44.800 ship around. But equally there will be opportunities. If the 0:09:44.920 --> 0:09:49.160 UK leaves, then will be the only English speaking country 0:09:49.240 --> 0:09:54.520 in the EU Malta as well, so there are opportunities there. 0:09:54.960 --> 0:09:57.000 And you also mentioned to me the fact that Tony 0:09:57.040 --> 0:10:01.280 Blair said that maybe you know it's my change. Perhaps 0:10:01.320 --> 0:10:04.280 when the negotiated, how the ever deal is a negotiation 0:10:04.320 --> 0:10:07.400 in two years time, maybe there might be an opportunity 0:10:07.760 --> 0:10:11.680 of putting that to the British people for an either 0:10:12.000 --> 0:10:16.520 or choice. But look, all of those things are are 0:10:16.600 --> 0:10:19.040 up in the air at this point in time, Marian, 0:10:19.120 --> 0:10:22.800 really quickly, here are Irish people. Are they saying we 0:10:22.840 --> 0:10:25.920 can't sell as much stuff to the UK. They're gladfullest competition. 0:10:27.720 --> 0:10:30.959 Look they're they're very concerned because the drop and sterling 0:10:30.960 --> 0:10:35.959 immediately affects our exports. So people are very concerned because 0:10:35.960 --> 0:10:38.319 we know that if if a deal isn't done, it's 0:10:38.360 --> 0:10:40.760 in everybody's interest to do a deal. But the bottom 0:10:40.800 --> 0:10:44.400 line here is you can't have al carte access to 0:10:44.480 --> 0:10:50.200 the Single market. It comes with toughs, it comes with responsibilities, 0:10:50.320 --> 0:10:52.800 and we have to wait and see what the British 0:10:53.000 --> 0:10:56.439 wants and then we can see how we can position 0:10:56.600 --> 0:10:58.960 our economy to to get the best out of it 0:10:59.040 --> 0:11:02.040 as it were. Thank you very much, Marian Harkin, member 0:11:02.080 --> 0:11:06.119 of the European Union Parliament's Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee. 0:11:06.440 --> 0:11:09.160 You're listening to taking Stockhe'm Pim Fox, my co host 0:11:09.240 --> 0:11:11.760 Kathleen Hayes, and this is Bloomberg.