Speaker 1: Global business news twenty four hours a day at Bloomberg
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Speaker 1: This is a Bloomberg Business Flash from Bloomberg World Headquarters
Speaker 1: on Katherine Cownderie. Stocks remain higher and the dollars slipped
Speaker 1: after minutes from the Federal Reserves last meeting did little
Speaker 1: to alter perceptions for the timing of higher interest rates.
Speaker 1: Concerned that fallout from the Brexit vote may spread, drove
Speaker 1: demand for Haven's. The SMP five foundered held games as
Speaker 1: the minutes indicated that May's week jobs report fueled uncertainty
Speaker 1: among FETE officials about the economy, though data since including
Speaker 1: a report on the service industries today helped rekindle investor optimism,
Speaker 1: and investors are awaiting the June employment report due out
Speaker 1: this Friday. We talk to markets every fifteen minutes throughout
Speaker 1: the trading day on Bloomberg Radio. Dell Industrial Average is
Speaker 1: up fifty points a quarter percent, trading at seventeen thousand,
Speaker 1: eight hundred eighty nine. SMP five founded up seven points
Speaker 1: a third of a percent to two thousand ninety five.
Speaker 1: The NASTAC higher by twenty eight point six tenths of
Speaker 1: a percent at forty eight fifty Last, Texas entermedy at
Speaker 1: crude oil up sixty eight cents a barrel one and
Speaker 1: a half percent to forty seven twenty nine. It's black
Speaker 1: old up five dollar seventy cents. Announced a thirteen sixty
Speaker 1: forty ten You a treasury down to thirty seconds with
Speaker 1: the yield of one point three eight percent. And that's
Speaker 1: a Bloomberg Business Flash. Je listening to Taking Style with
Speaker 1: Gin Box and Kathleen Hayes on Bloomberg Radio. Seems these
Speaker 1: days it's hard to overestimate the impact of the UK's
Speaker 1: vote to leave the European Union, the Brexit. Hard to
Speaker 1: estimate overestimate just how much impact this is having around
Speaker 1: the world. Story on the Bloomberg Today that emerging markets
Speaker 1: are extending their losses as concern from some kind of
Speaker 1: contagion UH from Brexit resurfaces. UH. We received a pitch
Speaker 1: today to do a story talking about how other parts
Speaker 1: of Europe will benefit greatly from this Brexit decision. We
Speaker 1: want to bring back someone to the show who we
Speaker 1: spoke to just before the vote, Marian Harkin. She's a
Speaker 1: member of the EU Parliament's Economic and Monetary Affairs committee.
Speaker 1: She's a former member of Ireland's Parliament, to talk to
Speaker 1: us about the fallout from the vote, what's next and
Speaker 1: maybe a little bit on what it means for Ireland
Speaker 1: in welcome back to the show. Thank you, catching delighted
Speaker 1: to be with you. So, as we've seen quoted many
Speaker 1: times in the British press, the UK press, brexit means brexit. Uh,
Speaker 1: what does it mean as the EU tries to move ahead? Well,
Speaker 1: certainly it's we're in Strasbourg here at the moment where
Speaker 1: in the planery session of the Parliament and you walk
Speaker 1: around the corridors cutting and you hear interviews going on
Speaker 1: in different languages. You hear people speaking in different languages,
Speaker 1: and every second or third sentence you hear the word
Speaker 1: brexitst That's all you will understand, because obviously there's over
Speaker 1: twenty languages here. But it just goes to show it's
Speaker 1: on everybody's clips. Everybody is very concerned. It's supposed really
Speaker 1: that there's two impacts we need to look at. We
Speaker 1: need to look at the political impact act for Europe
Speaker 1: and the stability of the European Union, but equally we
Speaker 1: have to look at the economic fallout. And I suppose
Speaker 1: from the political aspect, car Team we see apart from
Speaker 1: the meltdown that's going on in in the UK itself
Speaker 1: within both the Conservative and the Labor Party, but we
Speaker 1: also see, for example, in Hungary, Viktor Orband who's the
Speaker 1: Prime minister, there is having a referendum on the second
Speaker 1: of October on relocation plans for refugees, and that's the
Speaker 1: same day Austria is going back to the polls for
Speaker 1: a rerun of their presidential election. You remember that Coffer,
Speaker 1: the member of the far right Freedom Party, was defeated
Speaker 1: by point zero one percentage of a point and he
Speaker 1: has said in the last day or two that Austria
Speaker 1: should hold a referendum on a YOU membership within one
Speaker 1: year if the block he said, continues to centralize. You've
Speaker 1: got Marine, leapenn and Anson, You've You've got all of those.
Speaker 1: You know that this is part of the political fallout
Speaker 1: and it's giving oxygen if you like to to those
Speaker 1: who would like to see the breakup of the EU
Speaker 1: and who are i suppose supporting very nationalist concerns. And
Speaker 1: then you've got the economic fallout in the UK and Sterling.
Speaker 1: We know where it is. It's it's down I think
Speaker 1: at once thirty at the moment. But I think the
Speaker 1: fact that Mark Kearney said in the last day or two,
Speaker 1: and he is the Governor of the Bank of England,
Speaker 1: that his fears about Brexit had begun to crystallize. That's
Speaker 1: very worrying because we see that different property funds yesterday
Speaker 1: and today have halted redemptions, they're freezing withsdraws. So the
Speaker 1: big concerns about what could happen there. So just a
Speaker 1: great deal of uncertainty all around. And as we know,
Speaker 1: the market craft certainty, but it certainly does not have
Speaker 1: the now Marian. One thing that is not uncertain is
Speaker 1: that lawyers from some of Britain's largest legal firms have
Speaker 1: been looking to register in Ireland in order to protect
Speaker 1: their right to practice in the European Union. Is this
Speaker 1: something that you would continue? You you think will continue
Speaker 1: not only in the legal profession but another professions. I
Speaker 1: think it will because we had the situation just in
Speaker 1: the last few days that Ian Paisley Jr. That's the
Speaker 1: son of a famous Ian Paisley, was advising his constituents
Speaker 1: in Northern Ireland how to apply for Irish citizenship and
Speaker 1: he had the forms for them. So when you see
Speaker 1: that happening, you understand that a lot of people are
Speaker 1: looking for Irish citizenship. I was talking to one of
Speaker 1: our ministers today, he was out in Strasbourg. They don't
Speaker 1: have numbers for those who are applying for Irish citizenship,
Speaker 1: but all he told me was they're certainly looking at
Speaker 1: printing more for because they have run out of them.
Speaker 1: So we are going to see that. And again it's
Speaker 1: the uncertainty. People don't know what the future holds, so
Speaker 1: they want to, if you like, maybe have a pote
Speaker 1: in vote camps. So that's depending on what the outcomes are.
Speaker 1: They then have choices and I think that's what people
Speaker 1: are doing. Well. You know our own Mark Gilbert of
Speaker 1: Bloomberg News. He's a Bloomberg View columnus and he served
Speaker 1: most recently as London Bureau chief and he made it
Speaker 1: very interesting were very interesting column today, suggesting that because
Speaker 1: the EU doesn't have a written constitution, if I'm understanding correctly,
Speaker 1: whether and how Brittain respects the June vote becomes a
Speaker 1: matter of judgment rather than law. Uh. He also notes
Speaker 1: that on Monday, the Austrian Finance Minister, when it's as
Speaker 1: far as suggests UK might not end up leaving, and
Speaker 1: former Prime Minister Tony Blair also cast out on the plebiscite,
Speaker 1: saying a fifty vote to leave isn't binding. What what's
Speaker 1: being talked about me? You well, your your columnist is right.
Speaker 1: We have a treaty. But the Article fifty was included
Speaker 1: in the treaty and the last revision the Lisbon Treaty,
Speaker 1: in fact it was called and that's for the first time,
Speaker 1: gave member states an exit strategy. Up to that, it
Speaker 1: was like, you know, Hotel California, you can never leave
Speaker 1: if you like. But Article fifty applotted a pathway for
Speaker 1: member states to leave the EU, but it's quite vague
Speaker 1: and as of now, nobody can force the UK to
Speaker 1: trigger Article fifty. I think most people will say, look,
Speaker 1: they have to elect a new leader of the Conservative Party.
Speaker 1: We expect that to happen maybe the beginning of September,
Speaker 1: give them four to six weeks, maybe even to the
Speaker 1: end of October. But really they want to be getting
Speaker 1: their act together at that point. I think most reasonable
Speaker 1: people would suggest that that might be the timetables. Buff
Speaker 1: the UK does not have to follow that timetable. Now,
Speaker 1: I'm sure if it were to go to the beginning
Speaker 1: of next year, there would be a lot of concern
Speaker 1: and perhaps even some impatience, perhaps even turning to anger
Speaker 1: if the UK didn't make clear what its intentions were.
Speaker 1: But the ball actually is in their court at the moment.
Speaker 1: But once they trigger this Article fifty, then there are
Speaker 1: two years during which negotiations take place. After that period
Speaker 1: of time, if no agreement is reached, then we have
Speaker 1: no deal with the UK, and there would be in
Speaker 1: the same position. Let's say as China, they would come
Speaker 1: under w t O ROUS and the period could be extended,
Speaker 1: but that would require a unanimous decision of all the
Speaker 1: other twenty seven member states, and you can imagine that
Speaker 1: would be difficult to find. We're speaking with Marian Harkin,
Speaker 1: member of the European Union Parliament's Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee. Marian,
Speaker 1: how do you respond to people that say that the
Speaker 1: European Union needs to be more flexible, not only in
Speaker 1: how it deals with Brexit, but how it deals with
Speaker 1: many of the other issues that are presented themselves. Well,
Speaker 1: I didn't ask answer your previous question at him. When
Speaker 1: you asked me about Ireland, and I just briefly say
Speaker 1: one or two sentences for us, there are significant threats
Speaker 1: of our exports go to the UK and Northern Ireland,
Speaker 1: and about half of those are from Sames and from
Speaker 1: the agry food sector, so you can see that they are,
Speaker 1: if you like, overexposed, and no matter what happens in
Speaker 1: the intervening two years, we're not going to turn that
Speaker 1: ship around. But equally there will be opportunities. If the
Speaker 1: UK leaves, then will be the only English speaking country
Speaker 1: in the EU Malta as well, so there are opportunities there.
Speaker 1: And you also mentioned to me the fact that Tony
Speaker 1: Blair said that maybe you know it's my change. Perhaps
Speaker 1: when the negotiated, how the ever deal is a negotiation
Speaker 1: in two years time, maybe there might be an opportunity
Speaker 1: of putting that to the British people for an either
Speaker 1: or choice. But look, all of those things are are
Speaker 1: up in the air at this point in time, Marian,
Speaker 1: really quickly, here are Irish people. Are they saying we
Speaker 1: can't sell as much stuff to the UK. They're gladfullest competition.
Speaker 1: Look they're they're very concerned because the drop and sterling
Speaker 1: immediately affects our exports. So people are very concerned because
Speaker 1: we know that if if a deal isn't done, it's
Speaker 1: in everybody's interest to do a deal. But the bottom
Speaker 1: line here is you can't have al carte access to
Speaker 1: the Single market. It comes with toughs, it comes with responsibilities,
Speaker 1: and we have to wait and see what the British
Speaker 1: wants and then we can see how we can position
Speaker 1: our economy to to get the best out of it
Speaker 1: as it were. Thank you very much, Marian Harkin, member
Speaker 1: of the European Union Parliament's Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee.
Speaker 1: You're listening to taking Stockhe'm Pim Fox, my co host
Speaker 1: Kathleen Hayes, and this is Bloomberg.