1 00:00:02,160 --> 00:00:05,519 Speaker 1: Global business news twenty four hours a day at Bloomberg 2 00:00:05,600 --> 00:00:08,640 Speaker 1: dot Com, the radio, plus Globo Labs, and on your radio. 3 00:00:08,920 --> 00:00:13,120 Speaker 1: This is a Bloomberg Business Flash from Bloomberg World Headquarters 4 00:00:13,119 --> 00:00:16,520 Speaker 1: on Katherine Cownderie. Stocks remain higher and the dollars slipped 5 00:00:16,520 --> 00:00:19,360 Speaker 1: after minutes from the Federal Reserves last meeting did little 6 00:00:19,360 --> 00:00:22,240 Speaker 1: to alter perceptions for the timing of higher interest rates. 7 00:00:22,560 --> 00:00:25,320 Speaker 1: Concerned that fallout from the Brexit vote may spread, drove 8 00:00:25,360 --> 00:00:28,280 Speaker 1: demand for Haven's. The SMP five foundered held games as 9 00:00:28,280 --> 00:00:31,680 Speaker 1: the minutes indicated that May's week jobs report fueled uncertainty 10 00:00:31,720 --> 00:00:35,120 Speaker 1: among FETE officials about the economy, though data since including 11 00:00:35,120 --> 00:00:39,160 Speaker 1: a report on the service industries today helped rekindle investor optimism, 12 00:00:39,280 --> 00:00:42,199 Speaker 1: and investors are awaiting the June employment report due out 13 00:00:42,240 --> 00:00:44,960 Speaker 1: this Friday. We talk to markets every fifteen minutes throughout 14 00:00:44,960 --> 00:00:47,440 Speaker 1: the trading day on Bloomberg Radio. Dell Industrial Average is 15 00:00:47,560 --> 00:00:50,280 Speaker 1: up fifty points a quarter percent, trading at seventeen thousand, 16 00:00:50,360 --> 00:00:53,440 Speaker 1: eight hundred eighty nine. SMP five founded up seven points 17 00:00:53,479 --> 00:00:55,640 Speaker 1: a third of a percent to two thousand ninety five. 18 00:00:56,000 --> 00:00:58,360 Speaker 1: The NASTAC higher by twenty eight point six tenths of 19 00:00:58,360 --> 00:01:01,320 Speaker 1: a percent at forty eight fifty Last, Texas entermedy at 20 00:01:01,320 --> 00:01:03,480 Speaker 1: crude oil up sixty eight cents a barrel one and 21 00:01:03,520 --> 00:01:06,160 Speaker 1: a half percent to forty seven twenty nine. It's black 22 00:01:06,200 --> 00:01:08,880 Speaker 1: old up five dollar seventy cents. Announced a thirteen sixty 23 00:01:09,240 --> 00:01:11,720 Speaker 1: forty ten You a treasury down to thirty seconds with 24 00:01:11,760 --> 00:01:14,200 Speaker 1: the yield of one point three eight percent. And that's 25 00:01:14,240 --> 00:01:18,560 Speaker 1: a Bloomberg Business Flash. Je listening to Taking Style with 26 00:01:18,720 --> 00:01:23,880 Speaker 1: Gin Box and Kathleen Hayes on Bloomberg Radio. Seems these 27 00:01:23,920 --> 00:01:27,600 Speaker 1: days it's hard to overestimate the impact of the UK's 28 00:01:27,680 --> 00:01:31,440 Speaker 1: vote to leave the European Union, the Brexit. Hard to 29 00:01:31,640 --> 00:01:35,200 Speaker 1: estimate overestimate just how much impact this is having around 30 00:01:35,200 --> 00:01:37,959 Speaker 1: the world. Story on the Bloomberg Today that emerging markets 31 00:01:37,959 --> 00:01:41,560 Speaker 1: are extending their losses as concern from some kind of 32 00:01:41,680 --> 00:01:47,080 Speaker 1: contagion UH from Brexit resurfaces. UH. We received a pitch 33 00:01:47,120 --> 00:01:50,160 Speaker 1: today to do a story talking about how other parts 34 00:01:50,200 --> 00:01:53,360 Speaker 1: of Europe will benefit greatly from this Brexit decision. We 35 00:01:53,400 --> 00:01:55,640 Speaker 1: want to bring back someone to the show who we 36 00:01:55,640 --> 00:01:58,080 Speaker 1: spoke to just before the vote, Marian Harkin. She's a 37 00:01:58,080 --> 00:02:01,720 Speaker 1: member of the EU Parliament's Economic and Monetary Affairs committee. 38 00:02:01,800 --> 00:02:05,200 Speaker 1: She's a former member of Ireland's Parliament, to talk to 39 00:02:05,320 --> 00:02:07,800 Speaker 1: us about the fallout from the vote, what's next and 40 00:02:07,840 --> 00:02:09,680 Speaker 1: maybe a little bit on what it means for Ireland 41 00:02:10,160 --> 00:02:13,519 Speaker 1: in welcome back to the show. Thank you, catching delighted 42 00:02:13,560 --> 00:02:16,640 Speaker 1: to be with you. So, as we've seen quoted many 43 00:02:16,680 --> 00:02:21,919 Speaker 1: times in the British press, the UK press, brexit means brexit. Uh, 44 00:02:22,080 --> 00:02:27,560 Speaker 1: what does it mean as the EU tries to move ahead? Well, 45 00:02:27,680 --> 00:02:30,880 Speaker 1: certainly it's we're in Strasbourg here at the moment where 46 00:02:30,880 --> 00:02:33,679 Speaker 1: in the planery session of the Parliament and you walk 47 00:02:33,720 --> 00:02:36,560 Speaker 1: around the corridors cutting and you hear interviews going on 48 00:02:36,720 --> 00:02:40,239 Speaker 1: in different languages. You hear people speaking in different languages, 49 00:02:40,639 --> 00:02:43,880 Speaker 1: and every second or third sentence you hear the word 50 00:02:44,240 --> 00:02:47,679 Speaker 1: brexitst That's all you will understand, because obviously there's over 51 00:02:47,760 --> 00:02:51,120 Speaker 1: twenty languages here. But it just goes to show it's 52 00:02:51,160 --> 00:02:55,480 Speaker 1: on everybody's clips. Everybody is very concerned. It's supposed really 53 00:02:55,520 --> 00:02:58,000 Speaker 1: that there's two impacts we need to look at. We 54 00:02:58,080 --> 00:03:01,079 Speaker 1: need to look at the political impact act for Europe 55 00:03:01,120 --> 00:03:04,640 Speaker 1: and the stability of the European Union, but equally we 56 00:03:04,760 --> 00:03:08,400 Speaker 1: have to look at the economic fallout. And I suppose 57 00:03:08,520 --> 00:03:13,160 Speaker 1: from the political aspect, car Team we see apart from 58 00:03:13,360 --> 00:03:16,120 Speaker 1: the meltdown that's going on in in the UK itself 59 00:03:16,600 --> 00:03:19,960 Speaker 1: within both the Conservative and the Labor Party, but we 60 00:03:20,040 --> 00:03:24,639 Speaker 1: also see, for example, in Hungary, Viktor Orband who's the 61 00:03:24,639 --> 00:03:27,919 Speaker 1: Prime minister, there is having a referendum on the second 62 00:03:27,960 --> 00:03:32,800 Speaker 1: of October on relocation plans for refugees, and that's the 63 00:03:32,840 --> 00:03:35,400 Speaker 1: same day Austria is going back to the polls for 64 00:03:35,480 --> 00:03:39,560 Speaker 1: a rerun of their presidential election. You remember that Coffer, 65 00:03:39,720 --> 00:03:43,280 Speaker 1: the member of the far right Freedom Party, was defeated 66 00:03:43,280 --> 00:03:48,280 Speaker 1: by point zero one percentage of a point and he 67 00:03:48,360 --> 00:03:51,280 Speaker 1: has said in the last day or two that Austria 68 00:03:51,720 --> 00:03:55,040 Speaker 1: should hold a referendum on a YOU membership within one 69 00:03:55,120 --> 00:03:58,680 Speaker 1: year if the block he said, continues to centralize. You've 70 00:03:58,680 --> 00:04:02,040 Speaker 1: got Marine, leapenn and Anson, You've You've got all of those. 71 00:04:03,080 --> 00:04:06,200 Speaker 1: You know that this is part of the political fallout 72 00:04:06,320 --> 00:04:10,320 Speaker 1: and it's giving oxygen if you like to to those 73 00:04:10,480 --> 00:04:13,360 Speaker 1: who would like to see the breakup of the EU 74 00:04:13,440 --> 00:04:18,920 Speaker 1: and who are i suppose supporting very nationalist concerns. And 75 00:04:18,960 --> 00:04:24,920 Speaker 1: then you've got the economic fallout in the UK and Sterling. 76 00:04:25,480 --> 00:04:27,680 Speaker 1: We know where it is. It's it's down I think 77 00:04:27,680 --> 00:04:30,800 Speaker 1: at once thirty at the moment. But I think the 78 00:04:30,880 --> 00:04:34,279 Speaker 1: fact that Mark Kearney said in the last day or two, 79 00:04:34,839 --> 00:04:36,880 Speaker 1: and he is the Governor of the Bank of England, 80 00:04:37,160 --> 00:04:42,080 Speaker 1: that his fears about Brexit had begun to crystallize. That's 81 00:04:42,200 --> 00:04:45,839 Speaker 1: very worrying because we see that different property funds yesterday 82 00:04:45,839 --> 00:04:49,520 Speaker 1: and today have halted redemptions, they're freezing withsdraws. So the 83 00:04:49,960 --> 00:04:53,080 Speaker 1: big concerns about what could happen there. So just a 84 00:04:53,120 --> 00:04:56,960 Speaker 1: great deal of uncertainty all around. And as we know, 85 00:04:57,080 --> 00:04:59,760 Speaker 1: the market craft certainty, but it certainly does not have 86 00:04:59,880 --> 00:05:03,919 Speaker 1: the now Marian. One thing that is not uncertain is 87 00:05:03,960 --> 00:05:07,240 Speaker 1: that lawyers from some of Britain's largest legal firms have 88 00:05:07,520 --> 00:05:10,279 Speaker 1: been looking to register in Ireland in order to protect 89 00:05:10,320 --> 00:05:13,840 Speaker 1: their right to practice in the European Union. Is this 90 00:05:14,000 --> 00:05:17,280 Speaker 1: something that you would continue? You you think will continue 91 00:05:18,160 --> 00:05:22,039 Speaker 1: not only in the legal profession but another professions. I 92 00:05:22,080 --> 00:05:25,240 Speaker 1: think it will because we had the situation just in 93 00:05:25,279 --> 00:05:28,560 Speaker 1: the last few days that Ian Paisley Jr. That's the 94 00:05:28,600 --> 00:05:33,800 Speaker 1: son of a famous Ian Paisley, was advising his constituents 95 00:05:33,800 --> 00:05:38,200 Speaker 1: in Northern Ireland how to apply for Irish citizenship and 96 00:05:38,279 --> 00:05:40,960 Speaker 1: he had the forms for them. So when you see 97 00:05:41,000 --> 00:05:44,960 Speaker 1: that happening, you understand that a lot of people are 98 00:05:45,000 --> 00:05:47,800 Speaker 1: looking for Irish citizenship. I was talking to one of 99 00:05:47,800 --> 00:05:50,919 Speaker 1: our ministers today, he was out in Strasbourg. They don't 100 00:05:51,000 --> 00:05:55,160 Speaker 1: have numbers for those who are applying for Irish citizenship, 101 00:05:55,279 --> 00:05:59,120 Speaker 1: but all he told me was they're certainly looking at 102 00:05:59,160 --> 00:06:01,520 Speaker 1: printing more for because they have run out of them. 103 00:06:01,600 --> 00:06:04,440 Speaker 1: So we are going to see that. And again it's 104 00:06:04,480 --> 00:06:08,200 Speaker 1: the uncertainty. People don't know what the future holds, so 105 00:06:08,279 --> 00:06:10,760 Speaker 1: they want to, if you like, maybe have a pote 106 00:06:10,760 --> 00:06:14,599 Speaker 1: in vote camps. So that's depending on what the outcomes are. 107 00:06:15,000 --> 00:06:17,320 Speaker 1: They then have choices and I think that's what people 108 00:06:17,320 --> 00:06:20,560 Speaker 1: are doing. Well. You know our own Mark Gilbert of 109 00:06:21,279 --> 00:06:26,320 Speaker 1: Bloomberg News. He's a Bloomberg View columnus and he served 110 00:06:26,640 --> 00:06:29,760 Speaker 1: most recently as London Bureau chief and he made it 111 00:06:29,920 --> 00:06:36,200 Speaker 1: very interesting were very interesting column today, suggesting that because 112 00:06:36,560 --> 00:06:39,920 Speaker 1: the EU doesn't have a written constitution, if I'm understanding correctly, 113 00:06:39,960 --> 00:06:43,279 Speaker 1: whether and how Brittain respects the June vote becomes a 114 00:06:43,320 --> 00:06:47,159 Speaker 1: matter of judgment rather than law. Uh. He also notes 115 00:06:47,360 --> 00:06:50,440 Speaker 1: that on Monday, the Austrian Finance Minister, when it's as 116 00:06:50,440 --> 00:06:53,440 Speaker 1: far as suggests UK might not end up leaving, and 117 00:06:53,640 --> 00:06:56,760 Speaker 1: former Prime Minister Tony Blair also cast out on the plebiscite, 118 00:06:57,040 --> 00:07:00,600 Speaker 1: saying a fifty vote to leave isn't binding. What what's 119 00:07:00,600 --> 00:07:04,560 Speaker 1: being talked about me? You well, your your columnist is right. 120 00:07:05,000 --> 00:07:09,320 Speaker 1: We have a treaty. But the Article fifty was included 121 00:07:09,400 --> 00:07:12,280 Speaker 1: in the treaty and the last revision the Lisbon Treaty, 122 00:07:12,280 --> 00:07:15,000 Speaker 1: in fact it was called and that's for the first time, 123 00:07:15,440 --> 00:07:18,920 Speaker 1: gave member states an exit strategy. Up to that, it 124 00:07:19,080 --> 00:07:22,200 Speaker 1: was like, you know, Hotel California, you can never leave 125 00:07:22,320 --> 00:07:27,560 Speaker 1: if you like. But Article fifty applotted a pathway for 126 00:07:27,800 --> 00:07:31,160 Speaker 1: member states to leave the EU, but it's quite vague 127 00:07:31,480 --> 00:07:36,480 Speaker 1: and as of now, nobody can force the UK to 128 00:07:36,640 --> 00:07:40,440 Speaker 1: trigger Article fifty. I think most people will say, look, 129 00:07:41,000 --> 00:07:45,040 Speaker 1: they have to elect a new leader of the Conservative Party. 130 00:07:45,040 --> 00:07:47,760 Speaker 1: We expect that to happen maybe the beginning of September, 131 00:07:48,160 --> 00:07:50,520 Speaker 1: give them four to six weeks, maybe even to the 132 00:07:50,600 --> 00:07:53,440 Speaker 1: end of October. But really they want to be getting 133 00:07:53,440 --> 00:07:57,040 Speaker 1: their act together at that point. I think most reasonable 134 00:07:57,080 --> 00:08:00,360 Speaker 1: people would suggest that that might be the timetables. Buff 135 00:08:01,120 --> 00:08:03,920 Speaker 1: the UK does not have to follow that timetable. Now, 136 00:08:04,000 --> 00:08:06,200 Speaker 1: I'm sure if it were to go to the beginning 137 00:08:06,200 --> 00:08:09,400 Speaker 1: of next year, there would be a lot of concern 138 00:08:09,480 --> 00:08:14,040 Speaker 1: and perhaps even some impatience, perhaps even turning to anger 139 00:08:14,800 --> 00:08:18,000 Speaker 1: if the UK didn't make clear what its intentions were. 140 00:08:18,040 --> 00:08:21,680 Speaker 1: But the ball actually is in their court at the moment. 141 00:08:21,840 --> 00:08:26,000 Speaker 1: But once they trigger this Article fifty, then there are 142 00:08:26,120 --> 00:08:31,120 Speaker 1: two years during which negotiations take place. After that period 143 00:08:31,200 --> 00:08:35,040 Speaker 1: of time, if no agreement is reached, then we have 144 00:08:35,200 --> 00:08:37,760 Speaker 1: no deal with the UK, and there would be in 145 00:08:37,800 --> 00:08:40,319 Speaker 1: the same position. Let's say as China, they would come 146 00:08:40,400 --> 00:08:44,599 Speaker 1: under w t O ROUS and the period could be extended, 147 00:08:44,880 --> 00:08:48,280 Speaker 1: but that would require a unanimous decision of all the 148 00:08:48,280 --> 00:08:51,200 Speaker 1: other twenty seven member states, and you can imagine that 149 00:08:51,240 --> 00:08:54,360 Speaker 1: would be difficult to find. We're speaking with Marian Harkin, 150 00:08:54,480 --> 00:08:59,400 Speaker 1: member of the European Union Parliament's Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee. Marian, 151 00:08:59,600 --> 00:09:02,000 Speaker 1: how do you respond to people that say that the 152 00:09:02,040 --> 00:09:06,040 Speaker 1: European Union needs to be more flexible, not only in 153 00:09:06,120 --> 00:09:08,880 Speaker 1: how it deals with Brexit, but how it deals with 154 00:09:08,960 --> 00:09:13,440 Speaker 1: many of the other issues that are presented themselves. Well, 155 00:09:13,520 --> 00:09:16,440 Speaker 1: I didn't ask answer your previous question at him. When 156 00:09:16,480 --> 00:09:19,160 Speaker 1: you asked me about Ireland, and I just briefly say 157 00:09:19,160 --> 00:09:23,080 Speaker 1: one or two sentences for us, there are significant threats 158 00:09:24,120 --> 00:09:27,040 Speaker 1: of our exports go to the UK and Northern Ireland, 159 00:09:27,640 --> 00:09:31,600 Speaker 1: and about half of those are from Sames and from 160 00:09:31,640 --> 00:09:34,000 Speaker 1: the agry food sector, so you can see that they are, 161 00:09:34,480 --> 00:09:38,120 Speaker 1: if you like, overexposed, and no matter what happens in 162 00:09:38,160 --> 00:09:40,720 Speaker 1: the intervening two years, we're not going to turn that 163 00:09:40,760 --> 00:09:44,800 Speaker 1: ship around. But equally there will be opportunities. If the 164 00:09:44,920 --> 00:09:49,160 Speaker 1: UK leaves, then will be the only English speaking country 165 00:09:49,240 --> 00:09:54,520 Speaker 1: in the EU Malta as well, so there are opportunities there. 166 00:09:54,960 --> 00:09:57,000 Speaker 1: And you also mentioned to me the fact that Tony 167 00:09:57,040 --> 00:10:01,280 Speaker 1: Blair said that maybe you know it's my change. Perhaps 168 00:10:01,320 --> 00:10:04,280 Speaker 1: when the negotiated, how the ever deal is a negotiation 169 00:10:04,320 --> 00:10:07,400 Speaker 1: in two years time, maybe there might be an opportunity 170 00:10:07,760 --> 00:10:11,680 Speaker 1: of putting that to the British people for an either 171 00:10:12,000 --> 00:10:16,520 Speaker 1: or choice. But look, all of those things are are 172 00:10:16,600 --> 00:10:19,040 Speaker 1: up in the air at this point in time, Marian, 173 00:10:19,120 --> 00:10:22,800 Speaker 1: really quickly, here are Irish people. Are they saying we 174 00:10:22,840 --> 00:10:25,920 Speaker 1: can't sell as much stuff to the UK. They're gladfullest competition. 175 00:10:27,720 --> 00:10:30,959 Speaker 1: Look they're they're very concerned because the drop and sterling 176 00:10:30,960 --> 00:10:35,959 Speaker 1: immediately affects our exports. So people are very concerned because 177 00:10:35,960 --> 00:10:38,319 Speaker 1: we know that if if a deal isn't done, it's 178 00:10:38,360 --> 00:10:40,760 Speaker 1: in everybody's interest to do a deal. But the bottom 179 00:10:40,800 --> 00:10:44,400 Speaker 1: line here is you can't have al carte access to 180 00:10:44,480 --> 00:10:50,200 Speaker 1: the Single market. It comes with toughs, it comes with responsibilities, 181 00:10:50,320 --> 00:10:52,800 Speaker 1: and we have to wait and see what the British 182 00:10:53,000 --> 00:10:56,439 Speaker 1: wants and then we can see how we can position 183 00:10:56,600 --> 00:10:58,960 Speaker 1: our economy to to get the best out of it 184 00:10:59,040 --> 00:11:02,040 Speaker 1: as it were. Thank you very much, Marian Harkin, member 185 00:11:02,080 --> 00:11:06,119 Speaker 1: of the European Union Parliament's Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee. 186 00:11:06,440 --> 00:11:09,160 Speaker 1: You're listening to taking Stockhe'm Pim Fox, my co host 187 00:11:09,240 --> 00:11:11,760 Speaker 1: Kathleen Hayes, and this is Bloomberg.