WEBVTT - Bloomberg Daybreak: November 2, 2022 - Hour 2 (Radio) 0:00:01.760 --> 0:00:05.039 Life from the Bloomberg Interactive Berger Studios. This is Bloomberg 0:00:05.120 --> 0:00:08.840 day Break for Wednesday, November two, two. Coming up this hour, 0:00:09.080 --> 0:00:12.440 Wall Street prepares for today's FED decision and news conference. 0:00:12.600 --> 0:00:15.680 Amazon Freeze is hiring and one of its profitable businesses, 0:00:16.040 --> 0:00:19.200 three big pharmacy chains reach a multibillion dollar settlement in 0:00:19.200 --> 0:00:22.479 the opioid crisis, and financial leaders take stock at a 0:00:22.480 --> 0:00:25.520 global economy. At a summit in Hong Kong, two Newark 0:00:25.520 --> 0:00:28.680 police officers were shot as the suspect remains on the loose. 0:00:28.760 --> 0:00:32.240 Plus campaigning with only six days until the mid term elections. 0:00:32.440 --> 0:00:35.280 I'm Michael Barr. More ahead, I'm down stage, Shower Sports 0:00:35.320 --> 0:00:37.559 the next Way, that coaching change and then lost. The 0:00:37.600 --> 0:00:40.120 local hockey teams all warned. The Philly shut out the 0:00:40.120 --> 0:00:44.879 Astros in Game three of the World Series. That's all 0:00:45.000 --> 0:00:48.720 training ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak on Bloomberg E Liveing freon 0:00:48.840 --> 0:00:53.279 New York, Bloomberg one, Washington, d C, Bloomberg one oh 0:00:53.280 --> 0:00:58.080 six one, Boston, Bloomberg nine sixties and Francisco Syrius Exam 0:00:58.120 --> 0:01:01.560 one nineteen and around the world on Bloomberg Radio dot 0:01:01.560 --> 0:01:08.200 com and via the Bloomberg Business app. Good morning. I'm 0:01:08.240 --> 0:01:11.319 Kared Moscow. I'm Nathan Hagar. Bloomberg Daybreak is brought to 0:01:11.319 --> 0:01:15.000 you by Cone Resnick Advisory Assurance Tax. Visit Cohne residents 0:01:15.000 --> 0:01:17.520 c suite dashboard to get the insights and intelligence you 0:01:17.600 --> 0:01:20.840 need to stay ahead. Visit Cone resideck dot com slash 0:01:20.880 --> 0:01:24.280 c suite. Then US Futures Hire this morning six on 0:01:24.360 --> 0:01:26.360 one on Wall Street. We checked the markets every fifteen 0:01:26.400 --> 0:01:28.680 minutes throughout the trading day on bloomberg S and P 0:01:28.840 --> 0:01:32.200 futures at four points down futures that'll change now Stay futures, 0:01:33.200 --> 0:01:35.559 and a ten year treasury that'll change YELD four point 0:01:35.560 --> 0:01:38.120 oh four percent yield on the two year four point 0:01:38.120 --> 0:01:41.080 five one percent. Nathan Karen, We begin with today's Fed 0:01:41.160 --> 0:01:44.000 decision and news conference from Chair J. Powell. Wall Street's 0:01:44.000 --> 0:01:45.720 been waiting for it all week, and we get a 0:01:45.720 --> 0:01:49.360 preview from Bloomberg Economics correspondent Michael McKee. The focus of 0:01:49.400 --> 0:01:52.600 the November FED meeting is going to be the December 0:01:52.600 --> 0:01:55.200 FED meeting once again. Central bankers have told us they 0:01:55.240 --> 0:01:57.560 intend to raise interest rates by three quarters of a 0:01:57.640 --> 0:02:00.800 percentage point to four percent this week, but there have 0:02:00.880 --> 0:02:04.000 also been some hints from some FED officials and some 0:02:04.160 --> 0:02:06.760 data that they might dial back to a half point 0:02:06.920 --> 0:02:09.720 rise in December at a quarter point rise after that. 0:02:09.919 --> 0:02:12.640 Much will depend on how the economy develops, but markets 0:02:12.680 --> 0:02:15.160 would like a better idea of just how high the 0:02:15.200 --> 0:02:18.560 Fed will go. Answering that question without creating more market 0:02:18.639 --> 0:02:22.800 volatility will be Chairman J. Powell's main job after Wednesday's meeting. 0:02:22.960 --> 0:02:25.799 Michael McKay Bloomberg Daybreak. All right, Mike, thanks and stay 0:02:25.800 --> 0:02:28.600 with Bloomberg Radio and Television for live analysis of the 0:02:28.600 --> 0:02:31.320 Fed decision. It all begins at one thirty pm Wall 0:02:31.320 --> 0:02:34.600 Street Time on a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance. Well 0:02:34.600 --> 0:02:37.040 as we await that policy decision, Nathan, the chorus is 0:02:37.080 --> 0:02:40.560 growing louder that rate hikes will eventually lead to a recession. 0:02:40.639 --> 0:02:43.400 Luke Ellis, as chief executive officer of Man Group, You're 0:02:43.440 --> 0:02:45.440 going to get a recession in the US. That's sort 0:02:45.480 --> 0:02:48.600 of inevitable. They wanted to get rid of inflection. If 0:02:48.639 --> 0:02:50.960 they want to get inflection down to a two percent target, 0:02:51.040 --> 0:02:54.200 then yes, I was sorry. There is a theoretical soft 0:02:54.240 --> 0:02:58.000 banding runway, but it's so thin you wouldn't want to 0:02:58.000 --> 0:03:00.480 try to land a plane in a hurricane. In Man 0:03:00.520 --> 0:03:03.639 Group CEO Luke Ellis sees US inflation slowing to three 0:03:03.680 --> 0:03:05.839 and a half to four percent as soon as next year. 0:03:05.919 --> 0:03:07.440 We Karen m and A on Wall Street has been 0:03:07.440 --> 0:03:10.160 slowing down, but David Solomon expects that to change. The 0:03:10.200 --> 0:03:13.240 Goldman Sax CEO sees a recovery in deal making next year, 0:03:13.240 --> 0:03:15.160 and he's speaking about that and the current state of 0:03:15.200 --> 0:03:18.240 financial markets. Generally speaking, when we've had these periods in 0:03:18.280 --> 0:03:21.600 the past, it takes somewhere between two and four quarters, 0:03:21.840 --> 0:03:25.320 sometimes maybe six quarters, you know, to rebalance. I think 0:03:25.320 --> 0:03:28.280 we're going through that rebalancing period. I think there's still 0:03:28.320 --> 0:03:30.240 a significant amount of uncertainty, but as we get into 0:03:30.280 --> 0:03:33.079 twenty three and we start to have a clear understanding 0:03:33.440 --> 0:03:36.760 of the trajectory of capital markets. Goldman Sax CEO David 0:03:36.760 --> 0:03:39.880 Solomon made the comments at today's Global Financial Investment Summit 0:03:39.920 --> 0:03:43.240 in Hong Kong. Solomon is one of several financial leaders 0:03:43.280 --> 0:03:47.480 attending that summit. Nathan HSBC CEO Noel Quinn is also there, 0:03:47.480 --> 0:03:49.320 and we kind up with him to discuss the impact 0:03:49.400 --> 0:03:52.280 COVID is having on the Chinese economy. The COVID is 0:03:52.280 --> 0:03:55.520 a big story because with with a restriction and movement 0:03:55.560 --> 0:03:59.000 into Ana China. It's very hard for the international community. 0:03:59.440 --> 0:04:02.040 So we can next with third economy, but it will 0:04:02.040 --> 0:04:05.440 rebound and China will open up at some points in time. 0:04:05.880 --> 0:04:07.960 But I think it is important for the economy for 0:04:08.040 --> 0:04:11.040 China eventually to find the solutions of the COVID strategy. 0:04:11.520 --> 0:04:15.120 HSBC's nor quinns use Asia has a strong platform for growth. 0:04:15.240 --> 0:04:17.920 We starks an Asia rose again overnight. Karen on optimism 0:04:17.920 --> 0:04:20.640 COVID restrictions will ease. Let's get the recap from Bloomberg's 0:04:20.680 --> 0:04:23.440 Juliette Sally in Singapore. Good morning, Juliet, Good morning, Nathan 0:04:23.440 --> 0:04:25.800 and Karen. Afternoon trade in Hong Kong was halted due 0:04:25.839 --> 0:04:28.400 to a storm. However, the Hang Sang index steal posted 0:04:28.440 --> 0:04:31.560 its best two day games since March. Mainland shares also 0:04:31.600 --> 0:04:34.360 climbed as investors tried to waste speculation that China may 0:04:34.400 --> 0:04:37.839 scrap its COVID zero policy. In Taipei, on high shares 0:04:37.920 --> 0:04:41.040 rose despite China looking down the Jangel Airport economy zone 0:04:41.200 --> 0:04:44.400 where Fox Colan's iPhone plant is located, to cut the 0:04:44.400 --> 0:04:47.280 COVID spread, and the yen strengthened for a second straight Day, 0:04:47.279 --> 0:04:49.560 with traders considering the risk that a hawk is fed 0:04:49.680 --> 0:04:52.920 may boost the dollar to levels that trigger fresh intervention. 0:04:53.279 --> 0:04:57.760 On a Japanese holiday in Singapore, Juliet Sally Bloomberg Daybreak Right, 0:04:57.839 --> 0:05:00.720 Julie Thankstang and China Now, Bloomberg News has learned that 0:05:00.800 --> 0:05:04.080 Teslash at its flagship showroom in Beijing last month. The 0:05:04.120 --> 0:05:07.000 electric carmaker has a number of showrooms in China's capital, 0:05:07.360 --> 0:05:09.719 and the one now shuttered was in a shopping center 0:05:09.720 --> 0:05:12.479 in a residential area. For the most part, Tesla sales 0:05:12.520 --> 0:05:15.279 cars via an online direct sales model, rather than through 0:05:15.320 --> 0:05:19.000 dealerships or showrooms. And other corporate news Karen, Amazon's taking 0:05:19.000 --> 0:05:22.080 more measures to align its expenses with a slowdown in sales. 0:05:22.160 --> 0:05:25.479 We get the details from Bloomberg's Lisa Mateo. Bloomberg News 0:05:25.480 --> 0:05:28.200 has learned that the world's largest e commerce company is 0:05:28.240 --> 0:05:32.279 freezing staffing levels and its profitable advertising business. The decision 0:05:32.320 --> 0:05:35.159 to keep the advertising unit workforce at its current level 0:05:35.320 --> 0:05:38.400 shows Amazon is looking to squeeze more profit out of 0:05:38.400 --> 0:05:41.880 the fast growing business and the busy holiday quarter. Amazon's 0:05:41.920 --> 0:05:45.520 advertising business, largely sponsored search results on its web store 0:05:45.600 --> 0:05:48.719 generated more than nine and a half billion dollars last quarter. 0:05:49.160 --> 0:05:52.919 Lisa Mateo, Bloomberg, Daybreak at Leasta thanks. Shares of Airbnb 0:05:53.200 --> 0:05:55.800 on the move this morning downward then six percent in 0:05:55.800 --> 0:05:58.640 early trading. That's after a disappointing outlook for bookings on 0:05:58.680 --> 0:06:00.400 the fourth quarter, and we get the need tails from 0:06:00.440 --> 0:06:05.040 Bloombergy's Charlie Pellett. It suggests that consumer preferences are shifting 0:06:05.080 --> 0:06:08.680 away from higher cost rentals that thrive during the pandemic 0:06:08.920 --> 0:06:12.640 and back to urban and cross border destinations. The San 0:06:12.680 --> 0:06:16.400 Francisco based home sharing platform said it expects the pace 0:06:16.520 --> 0:06:20.520 of nights and experiences booked will quote moderate slightly in 0:06:20.560 --> 0:06:23.200 the fourth quarter compared with the third quarters gain of 0:06:23.240 --> 0:06:27.560 twenty five percent. Airbnb reported ninety nine point seven million 0:06:27.680 --> 0:06:31.400 nights and experiences booked in the three months ended in September, 0:06:31.720 --> 0:06:35.679 falling short of analyss estimates of ninety nine point nine million. 0:06:36.040 --> 0:06:39.359 In New York. Charlie Pellett Bloomberg, deybreak, all right, Charlie, 0:06:39.400 --> 0:06:41.160 thank you. Finally, it is one of the last big 0:06:41.200 --> 0:06:44.840 settlements over the opioid epidemic. Sources tell Us, CVS Health, 0:06:44.839 --> 0:06:48.120 Walgreen's Boots Alliance, and Walmart have tentatively agreed to pay 0:06:48.160 --> 0:06:51.440 twelve billion dollars to resolve state and local lawsuits over 0:06:51.480 --> 0:06:54.200 mishandling of addictive painkillers. Were told the deal won't be 0:06:54.200 --> 0:06:57.640 finalized until enough states, cities, and counties agreed to it. 0:06:58.160 --> 0:07:00.839 N S and p futures are little chain in this morning, 0:07:00.839 --> 0:07:04.280 So are down futures, nounsdays, futures up about twenty ten 0:07:04.360 --> 0:07:06.760 year treasury that will change. You had four point oh 0:07:06.760 --> 0:07:09.000 four percent and a yield in the two year four 0:07:09.040 --> 0:07:12.120 point five one percent, and NIMEX screwed oil is down 0:07:12.120 --> 0:07:14.680 to tenth of upper sent straight ahead your latest local 0:07:14.720 --> 0:07:18.840 headlines plus the check of sports. And this is Bloomberg. 0:07:23.000 --> 0:07:24.920 He's staring at six oh seven on Wall Street. We're 0:07:24.960 --> 0:07:27.400 fifty seven degrees in Central Park. We have a service 0:07:27.400 --> 0:07:30.480 suspension on the New Jersey Transits Northeast Corrida between Trent 0:07:30.600 --> 0:07:33.200 and Railway. Tell you more in traffic. First, Michael bar 0:07:33.360 --> 0:07:34.800 with what else is going on in New York and 0:07:34.840 --> 0:07:37.080 around the world. Good morning, Michael, Good morning Nathan. To 0:07:37.240 --> 0:07:39.840 Newark police officers were wounded in a shooting in a 0:07:39.920 --> 0:07:43.800 residential neighborhood not far from the city's airport. The Essex 0:07:43.840 --> 0:07:47.280 County Prosecutor's office as the officers were being treated for 0:07:47.320 --> 0:07:49.880 injuries at a nearby hospital. Both are said to be 0:07:49.920 --> 0:07:54.240 in stable condition. Essex County Acting prosecuted Ted Stevens says 0:07:54.240 --> 0:07:58.640 the suspected shooter, Kendall Howard, faces charges and remains on 0:07:58.680 --> 0:08:02.280 the loopse to Council attempted murder on the officers, as 0:08:02.280 --> 0:08:06.600 well as unauthorized possession of a weapon and unauthorized possession 0:08:06.680 --> 0:08:11.000 of a weapon for unlawful purposes. Prosecutor Stephens says the 0:08:11.000 --> 0:08:13.920 gunman opened fire on police as they were serving a 0:08:14.000 --> 0:08:17.240 search warrant. A New York appeals court upheld a new 0:08:17.360 --> 0:08:21.600 state law allowing absentee ballots to be reviewed before election day. 0:08:21.680 --> 0:08:25.440 The court says it would be extremely disruptive to change 0:08:25.480 --> 0:08:30.160 the rules with absentee voting already underway. Republicans challenged the law. 0:08:30.640 --> 0:08:34.360 Former President Obama stump for Democrats last night in Las Vegas, 0:08:34.520 --> 0:08:37.400 with less than a week to go before the midterm elections. 0:08:37.720 --> 0:08:42.880 Obama campaigned for incumbent Catherine Cortez Mastow in Nevada Senate race. 0:08:43.120 --> 0:08:46.440 Obama was critical of Republicans they want to gut social 0:08:46.440 --> 0:08:54.000 Security and Medicare and then give they're Welsley friends and 0:08:54.040 --> 0:08:57.560 big corporations more tax cuts. Polls show a debt heat 0:08:57.559 --> 0:09:02.199 between Mastow and Republican Adam Laxhole. Another closely watched Senate 0:09:02.280 --> 0:09:06.480 races in Pennsylvania between Democrat John Fetterman and Republican Memit Oz. 0:09:07.000 --> 0:09:09.840 Doctor Oz hit the campaign trail in Lower Bucks County, 0:09:09.920 --> 0:09:12.280 speaking at to get out the vote rally in Ben 0:09:12.360 --> 0:09:17.320 Salem Township last night. Washington getting the wrong because of 0:09:17.400 --> 0:09:22.200 the extreme positions that they're accepting of and they need 0:09:22.200 --> 0:09:27.920 a dose of Pennsylvania reality. Cutterman's lead over Oz is shrinking, 0:09:27.920 --> 0:09:33.600 with supporting Fetterman to for Oz. Former Israeli Prime Minister 0:09:33.640 --> 0:09:36.439 Benjamin Netanyah, who appears to be heading towards victory and 0:09:36.559 --> 0:09:39.520 national elections. With about eighty percent of the ballots counted, 0:09:39.600 --> 0:09:42.160 voters gave him and his far right allies what looks 0:09:42.200 --> 0:09:45.640 to be a stable majority in the country's parliament. Brazilian 0:09:45.679 --> 0:09:50.000 President Jayre Bolsonaro vow to respect the constitution and authorized 0:09:50.040 --> 0:09:52.760 the government to start the political transition after his loss 0:09:52.800 --> 0:09:56.160 to Luis Ignatio. Lula de Silva. Global News twenty four 0:09:56.200 --> 0:09:58.920 hours a day on air and on Bloomberg quicktake powered 0:09:58.920 --> 0:10:01.640 by more than the seven hundred journalists and analysts more 0:10:01.640 --> 0:10:04.560 than a hundred twenty countries. MICHAELA. Barn This is Bloomberg, Nathan. 0:10:04.679 --> 0:10:11.640 Thanks Michael. Almost six ten on Wall Street time for 0:10:11.640 --> 0:10:13.680 the Bloomberg Sports Update, brought to you by Tri State 0:10:13.720 --> 0:10:15.959 Outy with John Stashower. All Right, Anathan, he's are good 0:10:15.960 --> 0:10:18.480 times in Philadelphia. The Eagles are seven and oh. The 0:10:18.480 --> 0:10:21.680 Phillies are two wins from over just their third ever 0:10:21.760 --> 0:10:24.280 World Series title. They took Game three over the heavily 0:10:24.320 --> 0:10:27.560 favored Astros seven and I think Philly's had five home runs. 0:10:27.920 --> 0:10:30.360 Houston only had five hits. The series is to one, 0:10:30.400 --> 0:10:33.600 game four in Philly. Tonight Whorlwood Day in Brooklyn, the 0:10:33.640 --> 0:10:35.880 Nets had a quote parting of the ways with coach 0:10:35.920 --> 0:10:38.560 Steve Nash just seven games in the season, and then 0:10:38.640 --> 0:10:41.199 multiple reports they are on the verge of replacing Nash 0:10:41.480 --> 0:10:44.800 with m Audoka, nash assistant in Brooklyn. He then coached 0:10:44.800 --> 0:10:47.760 the Celtics to the NBA Finals last season. He's now 0:10:47.760 --> 0:10:51.400 serving a team imposed year long suspension for an improper 0:10:51.440 --> 0:10:54.600 relationship with the Celtics employee Jacques Vaughan, coach the Nets. 0:10:54.640 --> 0:10:57.640 Last night at Barkley's. They blew a lead Chicago one 0:10:57.440 --> 0:10:59.920 one O eight to ninety nine. Zach Lavine outscored the 0:11:00.000 --> 0:11:02.840 nets by himself in the fourth quarter. Rough game for 0:11:02.920 --> 0:11:05.319 Kyrie Irvan. He shot two of twelve, missed all six 0:11:05.640 --> 0:11:08.120 of his three pointers, and the nets are two and six. 0:11:08.200 --> 0:11:12.320 That's the Garden. Rangers and Flyers scoreless for sixty four minutes. 0:11:14.760 --> 0:11:17.480 Here's he's into the Rangers should now the right side 0:11:17.840 --> 0:11:20.760 back out connecting shoots. This is it carrots all the 0:11:20.800 --> 0:11:24.160 way around. We're cups about a chat. Please pass break away, 0:11:24.360 --> 0:11:30.680 Chris Protter, oh it over time dates Star Rangers win 0:11:31.240 --> 0:11:33.600 in New York to call the Crier game winner. Rangers 0:11:33.600 --> 0:11:36.000 third straight win after a four game skid. The Devils 0:11:36.000 --> 0:11:37.920 have won four straight seven of eight. They won five 0:11:37.960 --> 0:11:39.840 to at Vancouver and the fourth strade win for the 0:11:39.840 --> 0:11:42.920 Islanders three one in Chicago. First rankings from the College 0:11:42.960 --> 0:11:46.600 Football Playoff Committee. The top four Our Tennessee, Ohio State, 0:11:46.679 --> 0:11:50.520 Georgia and Clemson Tennessee plays George the Saturday John Stashoward 0:11:50.520 --> 0:11:54.319 Bloomberg Sports Nathan all Right, John, Thanks futures trading A 0:11:54.360 --> 0:11:57.280 little change now ahead of the FED decision. We're seeing 0:11:57.360 --> 0:12:00.400 SMP futures highed by three points down, Futures little change now, 0:12:00.520 --> 0:12:08.319 Nastic futures up. This is Bloomberg Bloomberg Sports brought to 0:12:08.360 --> 0:12:10.439 you by Audie. Don't let someone else drive off in 0:12:10.480 --> 0:12:12.560 the Autie model. You've always wanted to visit your local 0:12:12.600 --> 0:12:14.640 price state Audie dealer to get behind the wheel of 0:12:14.679 --> 0:12:22.480 yours today, or visit Autie Offers dot com for more information, markets, 0:12:22.600 --> 0:12:25.679 headlines and breaking news twenty four hours a day at 0:12:25.679 --> 0:12:29.679 Bloomberg dot com, the Bloomberg Business Outland at Bloomberg Quick Tape. 0:12:29.880 --> 0:12:38.400 This is a Bloomberg business lash and I'm far at 0:12:38.400 --> 0:12:41.480 Moscow and this updates brought to you by Commonwealth, supporting 0:12:41.480 --> 0:12:44.880 more than two thousand independent financial advisors or the solutions 0:12:44.920 --> 0:12:48.120 they need to grow a thriving business. Commonwealth Go Where 0:12:48.160 --> 0:12:51.160 You Grow. Is a Commonwealth dot Com to learn more 0:12:51.800 --> 0:12:55.200 and nasday futures are on the rise this morning, whiles 0:12:55.240 --> 0:12:57.640 and P futures are little changed ahead of the Federal 0:12:57.640 --> 0:13:00.280 Reserves policy meeting. If you check the markets everything fifteen 0:13:00.280 --> 0:13:03.160 minutes throughout the trading day on Bloomberg has A futures 0:13:03.160 --> 0:13:06.000 have twenty points this morning and again SMP futures as 0:13:06.000 --> 0:13:08.720 well as DAL futures are little changed. The decks in 0:13:08.760 --> 0:13:11.360 Germany little changed as well. In the ten year treasury 0:13:11.400 --> 0:13:13.880 down one thirty second yield four point oh four percent 0:13:14.200 --> 0:13:16.680 yield on the two year four point five one per cent. 0:13:17.040 --> 0:13:19.679 NIMEX screwed oil is down a quarter percent or twenty 0:13:19.679 --> 0:13:21.880 four cents at eighty eight dollars twelve cents of barrel 0:13:22.080 --> 0:13:24.839 comes gold up half percent or eight dollars thirty cents 0:13:24.840 --> 0:13:27.920 at sixteen fifty seven eighty and ounce. The euro point 0:13:28.000 --> 0:13:30.280 nine nine o two against the dollar British found one 0:13:30.280 --> 0:13:33.000 point one four nine zero and the end one forty 0:13:33.080 --> 0:13:36.120 seven point one four And looking at Big Coin this morning, 0:13:36.600 --> 0:13:39.120 it is down four ten percent now at twenty thousand, 0:13:39.200 --> 0:13:42.240 four hundred dollars. That's a Bloomberg business flash. Now here's 0:13:42.280 --> 0:13:44.880 Michael bar with more on what's going on around the world. 0:13:44.960 --> 0:13:48.080 Michael Karen, thank you very much. Brazilian President jay Eyre 0:13:48.120 --> 0:13:51.760 Bolsonaro reportedly told members of the country's Supreme Court that 0:13:51.920 --> 0:13:55.600 is election battle against leftist rival Luisa Natio Lula da 0:13:55.640 --> 0:13:58.640 Silva has come to an end, marking one step closer 0:13:58.679 --> 0:14:02.680 toward a concession. After his defeat Israel's fifth election in 0:14:02.720 --> 0:14:06.520 four years looks set to return Benjamin at Yahoo to power, 0:14:06.920 --> 0:14:09.920 with exit polls suggesting its strategy of forming an alliance 0:14:09.960 --> 0:14:12.760 with the nation's far right and succeeded. Game three of 0:14:12.760 --> 0:14:16.200 the World Series, the Philly shut out the Astros seven zip. 0:14:16.400 --> 0:14:19.560 Philadelphia now leads the series two games to one. NBA, 0:14:19.760 --> 0:14:22.680 after the firing of head coach Steve Nash, the Nets 0:14:22.720 --> 0:14:25.560 lost to the Bowls one nine nine, the Warriors lost, 0:14:25.800 --> 0:14:28.560 and NHL the Rangers won in overtime against the Flyers 0:14:28.560 --> 0:14:32.360 one zip, the Islanders, Devils and Capitals all one, the 0:14:32.400 --> 0:14:36.040 Bruins one in OT six five over the Penguins. Global 0:14:36.080 --> 0:14:38.600 News twenty four hours a day on air and on 0:14:38.680 --> 0:14:42.720 Bloomberg Quicktake, powered by more than twenty seven hundred journalists 0:14:42.720 --> 0:14:45.080 and analysts more than a hundred twenty countries. I'm Michael 0:14:45.120 --> 0:14:47.720 barn This is Bloomberg, Nathan. Thank you, Michael. It is 0:14:47.800 --> 0:14:50.560 six nineteen on Wall Street Live from the Bloomberg Interacted 0:14:50.560 --> 0:14:53.040 Brooker Studios. This is Bloomberg day Break, brought to you 0:14:53.080 --> 0:14:55.440 by b and Y Melin's Pershing. When why the world's 0:14:55.440 --> 0:14:59.400 most sophisticated wealth management and institutional firms rely on Pershing 0:14:59.720 --> 0:15:03.160 to at them improve profitability, create efficiency, attract talent, and 0:15:03.280 --> 0:15:07.440 manage risk at pershing dot com. Joining us now live 0:15:07.520 --> 0:15:10.240 from Washington, d C. Ahead of the Federal Reserve decision 0:15:10.320 --> 0:15:13.720 and the J PAL press conference. Bloomberg Global Economics and 0:15:13.800 --> 0:15:17.640 Policy correspondent Michael McKee, who will be there when Powell 0:15:17.720 --> 0:15:21.720 addresses the media this afternoon, Mike, Good morning. Seems like 0:15:21.840 --> 0:15:24.760 seventy five basis points is kind of in the bag, 0:15:24.840 --> 0:15:26.920 and you kind of get this feeling that a lot 0:15:26.960 --> 0:15:31.280 of market participants are already looking ahead to December. That's 0:15:31.760 --> 0:15:35.280 pretty much the case, Nathan. It is all about December 0:15:35.320 --> 0:15:38.200 today because the Fed has pretty much told us it's 0:15:38.200 --> 0:15:40.200 gonna be seventy five basis points today. There are no 0:15:40.280 --> 0:15:45.440 new dot plots or projections for economic indicators. So the 0:15:45.480 --> 0:15:48.040 only thing that Walt really wants to know is what 0:15:48.040 --> 0:15:50.120 do they do next? Because there's talk now of them 0:15:50.160 --> 0:15:53.480 stepping down to maybe a fifty basis point move, and 0:15:53.720 --> 0:15:56.600 there are questions about how high they're eventually going to go. 0:15:56.760 --> 0:16:00.520 So that's gonna be the focus for people, particular when J. 0:16:00.680 --> 0:16:03.200 Paul has his press conference. Yeah, I guess all the 0:16:03.240 --> 0:16:05.280 attention will be on the press conference. But I wonder 0:16:05.360 --> 0:16:09.800 how much the Chairman can or will say about what 0:16:09.920 --> 0:16:13.160 kind of impact the policy tightening is having on the 0:16:13.200 --> 0:16:17.160 economy when we aren't going to get those new economic 0:16:17.160 --> 0:16:20.680 projections from the statement today. That's gonna be a kind 0:16:20.680 --> 0:16:23.680 of key question because if he sounds too devilish, then 0:16:23.760 --> 0:16:26.000 the markets are going to rally and that's gonna work 0:16:26.040 --> 0:16:29.720 against the FED. Financial conditions will ease. So he's got 0:16:29.760 --> 0:16:32.920 to walk a fine line between saying things are still 0:16:33.040 --> 0:16:36.480 terrible and things are getting better. And that fine line 0:16:36.600 --> 0:16:39.520 is this sort of center point of an argument between 0:16:39.560 --> 0:16:44.040 two camps of economists, one that say says the inflation 0:16:44.120 --> 0:16:47.120 is still way too high and the FED must do 0:16:47.200 --> 0:16:49.920 what it can to stomp it out, and others who say, well, 0:16:49.960 --> 0:16:53.120 you know, the policies work with a lag, so maybe 0:16:53.160 --> 0:16:55.800 the FED should slow down, look around and see what 0:16:55.880 --> 0:16:59.400 impact it is already having on the economy. Now, you've 0:16:59.400 --> 0:17:02.600 been talking to a lot of FED governors, a lot 0:17:02.600 --> 0:17:05.879 of Open Market Committee members ahead of this meeting. Given 0:17:05.920 --> 0:17:09.560 what they've been telling you, Mike, is there any possibility 0:17:09.560 --> 0:17:11.919 that we could see a little bit more descent in 0:17:11.960 --> 0:17:15.080 the vote coming out of this meeting? Well, it's always 0:17:15.080 --> 0:17:20.359 a possibility, but given the fact that it's a sort 0:17:20.400 --> 0:17:23.760 of baked in situation with seventy five basis points, it 0:17:23.800 --> 0:17:28.280 doesn't argue that maybe there should be a descent. There 0:17:28.280 --> 0:17:30.800 could be because maybe somebody wants to get it on 0:17:30.880 --> 0:17:33.000 record that they think that it's time for the FED 0:17:33.040 --> 0:17:38.080 to slow down, but that really won't influence what the 0:17:38.240 --> 0:17:41.240 overall FED does, and it really won't influence the markets 0:17:41.840 --> 0:17:44.520 since the Fed has already told us what they're going 0:17:44.560 --> 0:17:47.399 to do, and you know, j. Powell is the one 0:17:47.440 --> 0:17:50.200 who counts, so his news conference will sort of override 0:17:50.200 --> 0:17:53.440 the impact of any descent. Are you looking for any 0:17:53.440 --> 0:17:57.760 clearer signals from Powell today on what kind of impact 0:17:57.880 --> 0:18:01.360 the policy tightening is having on the economy, whether the 0:18:01.440 --> 0:18:05.280 FED is starting to get more open to the idea 0:18:05.400 --> 0:18:09.720 that the slowdown we're seeing could be leading to a recession. Well, 0:18:09.760 --> 0:18:12.679 that's kind of a key question that would lead you 0:18:12.720 --> 0:18:16.119 to the other question of how high rates should go. 0:18:16.760 --> 0:18:21.439 And Paul again doesn't want to talk down the economy, 0:18:21.480 --> 0:18:24.160 but he also doesn't want to say it's too good 0:18:24.880 --> 0:18:28.400 because that will, uh maybe make him seem a little 0:18:28.440 --> 0:18:31.040 too hawkish. So be interesting to see how he describes 0:18:31.080 --> 0:18:33.840 it and how he would describe it some months out. 0:18:34.200 --> 0:18:39.400 The favorite indicator that the FED watches, according to j Powell, 0:18:39.440 --> 0:18:42.560 in terms of the yield curves, is three months and 0:18:42.920 --> 0:18:46.680 three month futures eighteen months out, and that curve is 0:18:46.800 --> 0:18:50.600 just about to invert. And he has said when that inverts, 0:18:50.640 --> 0:18:53.680 it's a signal FED probably needs to cut rates. So 0:18:54.680 --> 0:18:57.359 it's going to be interesting to see how that part 0:18:57.480 --> 0:19:01.119 of the yeoh curve behaves when the FED meeting is 0:19:01.119 --> 0:19:03.760 over today. Okay, so just thirty seconds left here, Mike, 0:19:03.800 --> 0:19:06.800 what are you gonna ask Chairman Powell? I might ask 0:19:06.880 --> 0:19:09.600 him about that yel curve. That's going to be an 0:19:09.600 --> 0:19:14.119 important question for the future. And I'm also curious about 0:19:14.280 --> 0:19:16.720 I think I know what he's gonna say about politics 0:19:16.720 --> 0:19:18.560 and the fact that there's an election in a week. 0:19:19.240 --> 0:19:23.200 But uh, you know, how's all this pressure weighing on him. Yeah, 0:19:23.240 --> 0:19:26.040 it's been interesting when we've started to hear even more 0:19:26.359 --> 0:19:30.000 Democrats ahead of the mid term, uh, signaling that they 0:19:30.040 --> 0:19:32.600 would like to see the FED slowdown on rates. We'll 0:19:32.680 --> 0:19:34.159 leave it there for now, Mike. You know you've got 0:19:34.200 --> 0:19:36.680 a very busy day ahead of course. Michael McKee Bloomberg 0:19:36.680 --> 0:19:39.879 Economics and Policy correspondent with us this morning from our 0:19:39.880 --> 0:19:44.320 Bloomberg Studios in Washington, d C. But later on he's 0:19:44.320 --> 0:19:47.040 gonna be a few blocks west at the Federal Reserve 0:19:47.359 --> 0:19:50.640 for Chairman Powell's news conference two pm. Wall Street Time. 0:19:50.640 --> 0:19:53.840 We get the decision to thirties when the news conference begins. 0:19:53.840 --> 0:19:56.880 Our coverage begins at one thirty on a special edition 0:19:56.920 --> 0:20:01.199 of Bloomberg Surveillance. Across Bloomberg Radio and television, you're listening 0:20:01.240 --> 0:20:08.919 to Bloomberg Daybreak, and Bloomberg Daybreak is brought to you 0:20:09.000 --> 0:20:11.639 by ancient accountants and advisers the right fit tax and 0:20:11.680 --> 0:20:13.760 accounting from that you need to succeed. Visit them at 0:20:13.800 --> 0:20:15.920 ancient dot com slash v i P to learn more. 0:20:16.119 --> 0:20:23.119 That's Ancient dot Com slash v i P broadcasting live 0:20:23.320 --> 0:20:27.280 from the Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio in New York, Bloomberg 0:20:27.400 --> 0:20:30.640 Living Free to Washington, d C. Bloomberg nine nine one 0:20:30.760 --> 0:20:34.000 to Boston, Bloomberg one O six one does San Francisco, 0:20:34.080 --> 0:20:37.280 Bloomberg nine sixt to the Country, Sirius XM to A 0:20:37.359 --> 0:20:40.520 one nineteen and around the globe. The Bloomberg Business apt 0:20:40.640 --> 0:20:50.199 and Bloomberg Radio dot com. This is Bloomberg Daybreak at 0:20:50.200 --> 0:20:52.520 six thirty on Wall Street. Good morning, I'm Nathan Hagar 0:20:53.080 --> 0:20:55.720 and I'm Karen Moscow, and we are just about three 0:20:55.880 --> 0:20:58.399 hours away from the open of US trading. It is 0:20:58.480 --> 0:21:00.080 time for the five things that you need to know 0:21:00.200 --> 0:21:03.280 to start your day, brought to you by Interactive Brokers. 0:21:03.520 --> 0:21:06.800 Interactive Brokers charges margin loan rates term three point five 0:21:06.800 --> 0:21:09.600 eight percent to four point five eight percent raise, subject 0:21:09.600 --> 0:21:12.800 to change. Learn more at ibkr dot com. Slash compair 0:21:13.440 --> 0:21:16.560 up first SMP futures are a little change this morning 0:21:16.560 --> 0:21:19.960 ahead of today's feder Reserve decision. Consensus calls for a 0:21:20.080 --> 0:21:23.600 rate hackers seventy five basis points ste fold. Chief Economists 0:21:23.680 --> 0:21:27.639 Lindsay pass says forward guidance will be very important. I 0:21:27.720 --> 0:21:30.920 do expect that given the backdrop of a five decade 0:21:30.960 --> 0:21:33.679 low in the unemployment rate and in your four decade 0:21:33.720 --> 0:21:37.119 high and inflation, the Fed will continue to revive higher 0:21:37.119 --> 0:21:40.399 expectations beyond what the market is anticipating in terms of 0:21:40.400 --> 0:21:44.760 that terminal rate. Come three and that's stefs Lindsay Pisa there. 0:21:44.800 --> 0:21:47.520 Stick with Bloomberg Radio and Television for complete coverage of 0:21:47.560 --> 0:21:50.520 the Fed with a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Alive 0:21:50.560 --> 0:21:53.560 at one thirty pm Wall Street Time. Well, recession calls 0:21:53.560 --> 0:21:55.800 are growing a bit aggressive rate hikes, Karen. When it 0:21:55.800 --> 0:21:58.320 comes to earnings, recession signs are likely to creep in 0:21:58.440 --> 0:22:01.919 next quarter. That's according to Mainstake Capital Chief investment officer 0:22:02.000 --> 0:22:05.159 David Couldla, earning is a little more resilient than what 0:22:05.320 --> 0:22:08.680 many had thought. So earnings not being impacted as much 0:22:08.760 --> 0:22:12.280 by the slowdown in the economy the FED action. So 0:22:12.320 --> 0:22:15.480 what's the expectation we'll see that next quarter. We'll get 0:22:15.480 --> 0:22:19.600 our earnings recession next quarter. Main Stake Capitals David Couldla 0:22:19.640 --> 0:22:22.280