1 00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:04,360 Speaker 1: Bloomberg is now on your dashboard with Apple CarPlay and 2 00:00:04,360 --> 00:00:08,160 Speaker 1: Android Auto. It gives you access to every Bloomberg podcast, 3 00:00:08,280 --> 00:00:11,560 Speaker 1: live audio feeds from Bloomberg Radio, print stories from Bloomberg 4 00:00:11,640 --> 00:00:14,920 Speaker 1: News in audio form, and the latest headlines of the 5 00:00:14,920 --> 00:00:18,600 Speaker 1: click of a button with Bloomberg News. Now it's free 6 00:00:18,680 --> 00:00:21,439 Speaker 1: with the latest version of the Bloomberg Business App. That's 7 00:00:21,680 --> 00:00:24,400 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Business App. Get it on your phone in 8 00:00:24,440 --> 00:00:27,760 Speaker 1: the Apple App Store or on Google Play. Just download 9 00:00:27,800 --> 00:00:30,560 Speaker 1: the app, connect your phone to your car and get started. 10 00:00:30,960 --> 00:00:34,400 Speaker 1: And it's all presented by our sponsor, Interactive Brokers. 11 00:00:35,400 --> 00:00:38,600 Speaker 2: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney alongside 12 00:00:38,640 --> 00:00:39,800 Speaker 2: my co host Matt Miller. 13 00:00:40,200 --> 00:00:44,279 Speaker 1: Every business day we bring you interviews from CEOs, market pros, 14 00:00:44,320 --> 00:00:48,160 Speaker 1: and Bloomberg experts, along with essential market movin news. 15 00:00:48,720 --> 00:00:51,839 Speaker 2: I'm the Bloomberg Markets podcast called Apple Podcasts or wherever 16 00:00:51,960 --> 00:00:55,080 Speaker 2: you listen to podcasts, and at Bloomberg dot Com Slash podcast. 17 00:00:55,680 --> 00:00:58,000 Speaker 3: Looking at the jobs data headline on the terminal. One 18 00:00:58,040 --> 00:01:00,640 Speaker 3: of the stories that reads by US labor market defive 19 00:01:00,720 --> 00:01:03,800 Speaker 3: slow down forecasts in broadening strength right now, want to 20 00:01:03,800 --> 00:01:07,600 Speaker 3: bring in Tom Gibble. He is the CEO at Lassal Network, 21 00:01:07,680 --> 00:01:11,240 Speaker 3: joining us on Zoom Tom. When you look at the 22 00:01:11,360 --> 00:01:14,480 Speaker 3: jobs report that we saw too hot to handle, what 23 00:01:14,560 --> 00:01:16,720 Speaker 3: really stands out to you from this report? 24 00:01:17,160 --> 00:01:19,960 Speaker 4: I think number one is the unemployment number dropping, which 25 00:01:20,120 --> 00:01:23,240 Speaker 4: happens to be somewhat seasonal, but it's still a really 26 00:01:23,280 --> 00:01:25,600 Speaker 4: good sign based on where things were trending over the 27 00:01:25,640 --> 00:01:30,080 Speaker 4: past couple months. And then secondarily, the fact that we 28 00:01:30,120 --> 00:01:32,759 Speaker 4: added one hundred and ninety nine thousand jobs is fantastic. 29 00:01:32,760 --> 00:01:35,640 Speaker 4: But of the one ninety nine, I believe one point 30 00:01:35,600 --> 00:01:38,720 Speaker 4: fifty were non government, which is a really good number 31 00:01:38,760 --> 00:01:41,280 Speaker 4: to see that over seventy five percent of the jobs 32 00:01:41,280 --> 00:01:44,119 Speaker 4: added or non government. So it's a really good sign. 33 00:01:44,520 --> 00:01:47,000 Speaker 4: And now, you know, here's just hoping that that not 34 00:01:47,080 --> 00:01:51,120 Speaker 4: only do they not raise rates, that that they don't 35 00:01:51,120 --> 00:01:53,000 Speaker 4: not lower rates, that they don't raise them as well. 36 00:01:53,080 --> 00:01:54,320 Speaker 4: So I think we're gonna be okay. 37 00:01:54,920 --> 00:01:55,520 Speaker 3: Yeah. 38 00:01:55,560 --> 00:01:57,720 Speaker 5: And in terms of the Ali and his good morning, 39 00:01:57,800 --> 00:02:01,880 Speaker 5: it's manas here alongside average early earnings coming in quite 40 00:02:01,920 --> 00:02:03,920 Speaker 5: nicely plus point four percent month a month year andyar 41 00:02:03,920 --> 00:02:05,920 Speaker 5: it takes you to four percent, So there's no sign 42 00:02:06,200 --> 00:02:09,640 Speaker 5: of the steam coming out of that engine at the moment. 43 00:02:10,680 --> 00:02:12,880 Speaker 5: And this is what markets are going to focus on, 44 00:02:12,960 --> 00:02:15,840 Speaker 5: isn't it, which is, there's no collapse, this is a 45 00:02:15,919 --> 00:02:18,960 Speaker 5: nice soft landing and earnings are strong. 46 00:02:20,520 --> 00:02:22,720 Speaker 4: Well, I think that what people are scared about is 47 00:02:22,800 --> 00:02:26,680 Speaker 4: it's not a landing at all. And I think that 48 00:02:26,680 --> 00:02:29,800 Speaker 4: that is it's the craziest market I've ever seen, craziest 49 00:02:29,800 --> 00:02:32,120 Speaker 4: economy I've ever seen. The stock market continues to go up, 50 00:02:32,200 --> 00:02:34,160 Speaker 4: earnings are positive, unemployments low. 51 00:02:34,360 --> 00:02:36,680 Speaker 5: It's certainly not laying the work for hard landing. 52 00:02:36,760 --> 00:02:39,480 Speaker 6: I mean, that's the whole point. And that's what the bond. 53 00:02:39,280 --> 00:02:41,919 Speaker 5: Market rallied furiously on, which was, you know, some kind 54 00:02:41,960 --> 00:02:44,960 Speaker 5: of a crack in the dams. So what is no 55 00:02:45,080 --> 00:02:47,360 Speaker 5: landing Because no landing doesn't get me two hundred bases 56 00:02:47,360 --> 00:02:50,000 Speaker 5: points of cuts from the FED next year, does it? No? 57 00:02:50,160 --> 00:02:52,840 Speaker 4: But but if they don't think it's landing at all, 58 00:02:52,880 --> 00:02:55,080 Speaker 4: it might get you another another twenty five or fifty 59 00:02:55,120 --> 00:02:58,440 Speaker 4: bases point increase. So you don't want that either. And 60 00:02:58,000 --> 00:03:01,680 Speaker 4: I think hopefully we're at a point now where we 61 00:03:01,720 --> 00:03:04,120 Speaker 4: say let's let this thing ride a little bit. And 62 00:03:05,120 --> 00:03:07,280 Speaker 4: I don't think we'll get the cuts, and I don't 63 00:03:07,320 --> 00:03:10,800 Speaker 4: think we'll get the increase, and so we'll just be 64 00:03:10,880 --> 00:03:12,200 Speaker 4: flat and see what happens. 65 00:03:12,360 --> 00:03:14,520 Speaker 6: What people don't realize. 66 00:03:14,400 --> 00:03:17,799 Speaker 4: Sometimes the economist that's definitely main street is that the 67 00:03:18,520 --> 00:03:21,560 Speaker 4: economy is so much different than we've ever had it 68 00:03:22,000 --> 00:03:24,400 Speaker 4: in the history of this country. And what I mean 69 00:03:24,440 --> 00:03:28,160 Speaker 4: by that is Number one, there's more startups than ever before. 70 00:03:28,240 --> 00:03:29,880 Speaker 6: So Google lays off people. 71 00:03:30,520 --> 00:03:33,400 Speaker 4: Small companies are gobbling these people up that didn't exist. 72 00:03:33,400 --> 00:03:36,160 Speaker 4: There wasn't this startup culture that people could go find 73 00:03:36,200 --> 00:03:38,400 Speaker 4: other jobs. So there's just more companies that exist for 74 00:03:38,400 --> 00:03:41,800 Speaker 4: people to go work at. Number two, because of technology, 75 00:03:41,840 --> 00:03:44,920 Speaker 4: the skills are more transferable. Fifty years ago, if I 76 00:03:45,040 --> 00:03:48,080 Speaker 4: was a General Motors or a Ford or a Chrysler 77 00:03:48,240 --> 00:03:51,800 Speaker 4: car person, that was all I could do. Today, because 78 00:03:51,840 --> 00:03:55,360 Speaker 4: of technology and transferable skills, you're not stuck in one 79 00:03:55,400 --> 00:03:57,800 Speaker 4: industry vertical for your whole career. You can move into 80 00:03:57,880 --> 00:04:00,560 Speaker 4: other areas. And so those are the type of things 81 00:04:00,560 --> 00:04:03,280 Speaker 4: that have made this job's recovery in this job's economy 82 00:04:03,600 --> 00:04:06,600 Speaker 4: so much different than any other time in American history. 83 00:04:06,960 --> 00:04:10,040 Speaker 3: And tom to see some of these rate cuts play out, though, 84 00:04:10,080 --> 00:04:11,960 Speaker 3: does something need to break? I'm just looking at the 85 00:04:12,080 --> 00:04:14,760 Speaker 3: unemployment rate extremely low at three point seven percent, I 86 00:04:14,800 --> 00:04:17,080 Speaker 3: had seen expectations maybe for that to cross the four 87 00:04:17,120 --> 00:04:18,280 Speaker 3: percent threshold. 88 00:04:19,360 --> 00:04:21,800 Speaker 4: Yeah, I think what we're seeing is it's not it's 89 00:04:21,839 --> 00:04:24,920 Speaker 4: not gonna you know, the only way if the if 90 00:04:24,960 --> 00:04:28,240 Speaker 4: the FED really believes that the only way to curb 91 00:04:28,320 --> 00:04:31,400 Speaker 4: inflation and get it down to two percent is to 92 00:04:31,920 --> 00:04:33,120 Speaker 4: have massive layoffs. 93 00:04:33,120 --> 00:04:34,080 Speaker 6: So I think which. 94 00:04:33,880 --> 00:04:39,200 Speaker 4: Would be destructive to the overall economy. Not helpful, but destructive, 95 00:04:39,400 --> 00:04:42,240 Speaker 4: would be to raise rates, you know, one hundred and 96 00:04:42,279 --> 00:04:46,280 Speaker 4: fifty basis points over the next three, four, five, six quarters. 97 00:04:46,360 --> 00:04:49,440 Speaker 4: And I don't think that's gonna happen because right now, 98 00:04:49,440 --> 00:04:54,040 Speaker 4: what we're seeing is companies can survive and operate with 99 00:04:55,120 --> 00:05:00,240 Speaker 4: relatively normal interest rates. And what we had it was 100 00:05:00,320 --> 00:05:04,479 Speaker 4: just too long of an explosion of growth due to 101 00:05:04,560 --> 00:05:09,120 Speaker 4: zero percent interest rates and no repercussions. And that's the challenge. 102 00:05:09,120 --> 00:05:11,480 Speaker 4: Is when you can open up a business as a 103 00:05:11,560 --> 00:05:14,120 Speaker 4: venture capital firm, or you can finance one as a 104 00:05:14,120 --> 00:05:17,839 Speaker 4: private equity firm and have almost no risk of loss, 105 00:05:18,560 --> 00:05:22,920 Speaker 4: that creates a net for everybody. That's just not fair, 106 00:05:23,000 --> 00:05:25,760 Speaker 4: it's not safe, it's not normal. Now what we're seeing 107 00:05:25,839 --> 00:05:28,760 Speaker 4: is with normalized interest rates as we had throughout the 108 00:05:28,800 --> 00:05:32,280 Speaker 4: history of this country, the economy can still survive, and 109 00:05:32,320 --> 00:05:34,080 Speaker 4: that's a positive thing for society. 110 00:05:34,440 --> 00:05:36,920 Speaker 5: One of the biggest debates that we have been having 111 00:05:37,080 --> 00:05:40,520 Speaker 5: during this massive rally in the bond market and sort 112 00:05:40,520 --> 00:05:43,920 Speaker 5: of explosion in equity markets higher, was that we were 113 00:05:43,920 --> 00:05:47,520 Speaker 5: going to face some kind of a debt cliff as 114 00:05:47,520 --> 00:05:52,960 Speaker 5: sort of a refinancing cliff in theory. Do you believe 115 00:05:53,080 --> 00:05:56,880 Speaker 5: that that's part of the reason why we're still sustaining ourselves, 116 00:05:56,880 --> 00:05:59,120 Speaker 5: that that cliff is just not materializing. 117 00:06:00,320 --> 00:06:03,080 Speaker 4: Yeah, I think it's a matter of time. I think 118 00:06:03,120 --> 00:06:05,400 Speaker 4: what we've got is is that there's more equity in 119 00:06:05,480 --> 00:06:09,599 Speaker 4: people's homes than we've ever had before, and at the 120 00:06:09,640 --> 00:06:13,120 Speaker 4: same time, the rate on borrowing money is increased, and 121 00:06:13,200 --> 00:06:15,839 Speaker 4: so what we've seen is people have the ability to 122 00:06:15,960 --> 00:06:20,279 Speaker 4: borrow more, and we're seeing consumer debt increase. We just 123 00:06:20,360 --> 00:06:22,880 Speaker 4: haven't seen it hit the wall yet. And I think 124 00:06:22,920 --> 00:06:26,840 Speaker 4: that the biggest change I've seen in consumer spending and 125 00:06:26,880 --> 00:06:30,560 Speaker 4: debt versus ever before is that people used to borrow 126 00:06:30,839 --> 00:06:33,919 Speaker 4: and have home equity lines or whatever it was, but 127 00:06:34,000 --> 00:06:37,480 Speaker 4: they were also saving for rainy day. And now what 128 00:06:37,520 --> 00:06:40,280 Speaker 4: it seems like is no matter how much money people have, 129 00:06:40,839 --> 00:06:43,160 Speaker 4: the saving for rainy days gone out the window because 130 00:06:43,200 --> 00:06:45,720 Speaker 4: there's this sense of the government will step in. I'm 131 00:06:45,720 --> 00:06:47,719 Speaker 4: not going to get kicked out of my house, and 132 00:06:47,760 --> 00:06:51,279 Speaker 4: there's an overall cultural shift that's existed, and I do 133 00:06:51,360 --> 00:06:53,000 Speaker 4: think I don't think it's going to happen in twenty 134 00:06:53,040 --> 00:06:56,000 Speaker 4: twenty four, but eventually the rubber's going to hit the 135 00:06:56,080 --> 00:06:59,159 Speaker 4: road there due to the deficit and the large amount 136 00:06:59,160 --> 00:07:00,320 Speaker 4: of individual debt as well. 137 00:07:00,680 --> 00:07:03,560 Speaker 3: Yeah, we're talking to CEO. Let's sell on network, Tom Gibble. Tom, 138 00:07:03,600 --> 00:07:05,839 Speaker 3: you make an interesting point because when we were talking 139 00:07:05,839 --> 00:07:08,440 Speaker 3: around Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales, it seemed like 140 00:07:08,440 --> 00:07:10,480 Speaker 3: the consumer was more than happy to use things like 141 00:07:10,600 --> 00:07:12,920 Speaker 3: buy now, pay later, taking on credit card debt to 142 00:07:13,000 --> 00:07:15,280 Speaker 3: keep buying goods. You're talking about the rubber hitting the 143 00:07:15,360 --> 00:07:18,000 Speaker 3: road in twenty twenty five. How does that shake out 144 00:07:18,240 --> 00:07:20,040 Speaker 3: with a labor market that you've made the point to 145 00:07:20,480 --> 00:07:23,400 Speaker 3: that's still strong and still has quite a number of 146 00:07:23,440 --> 00:07:25,160 Speaker 3: transferable skills. If people were to be. 147 00:07:25,200 --> 00:07:28,640 Speaker 4: Laid off, well, I think that's exactly I think you're 148 00:07:28,680 --> 00:07:30,360 Speaker 4: going to have a big come up and soid it'll 149 00:07:30,400 --> 00:07:33,240 Speaker 4: probably make a difference of who wins in the election 150 00:07:33,360 --> 00:07:36,040 Speaker 4: in twenty four and where Congress sits of what the 151 00:07:36,080 --> 00:07:36,800 Speaker 4: bailout will be. 152 00:07:37,120 --> 00:07:38,000 Speaker 6: So now we've. 153 00:07:37,760 --> 00:07:40,840 Speaker 4: Had, you know, in the past fifteen years, we've had 154 00:07:40,920 --> 00:07:44,280 Speaker 4: the recession and the corporate bailout, We've had the pandemic 155 00:07:44,320 --> 00:07:46,800 Speaker 4: and the consumer bailout. So now we're going to look 156 00:07:46,840 --> 00:07:49,000 Speaker 4: and we're going to see what's going to happen when 157 00:07:49,000 --> 00:07:54,720 Speaker 4: we get if we get another recession, and how bad 158 00:07:54,760 --> 00:07:57,720 Speaker 4: it gets on the homeowner side, on the residential, on 159 00:07:57,800 --> 00:08:01,000 Speaker 4: the commercial real estate side, and what we see with 160 00:08:01,040 --> 00:08:04,760 Speaker 4: the continuing growth of the national deficits. So I think 161 00:08:04,840 --> 00:08:08,400 Speaker 4: that because we've had this expansion of companies and to 162 00:08:08,520 --> 00:08:11,640 Speaker 4: quote Tom Freeman, right, the world really is flat from 163 00:08:11,680 --> 00:08:15,920 Speaker 4: a standpoint of jobs being able to be done anywhere 164 00:08:15,920 --> 00:08:19,200 Speaker 4: in the world, that I think people are going to 165 00:08:19,280 --> 00:08:22,920 Speaker 4: realize that they've got to work, and they're going to 166 00:08:23,000 --> 00:08:25,960 Speaker 4: take jobs below what they were making. Salaries are inflated 167 00:08:26,040 --> 00:08:28,520 Speaker 4: right now. I don't care what anybody says. We're up 168 00:08:28,560 --> 00:08:33,240 Speaker 4: four percent. Wages are and what's gone on in the 169 00:08:33,280 --> 00:08:37,720 Speaker 4: past thirty months with wage increases on the hourly side, 170 00:08:37,720 --> 00:08:40,960 Speaker 4: and the salary is crazy to happen that fast, and 171 00:08:41,000 --> 00:08:43,880 Speaker 4: it's going to come down, whether it's in twenty five 172 00:08:44,000 --> 00:08:46,920 Speaker 4: or twenty six. It's going to come back down eventually, 173 00:08:47,320 --> 00:08:49,680 Speaker 4: and I think that as long as people have jobs 174 00:08:49,679 --> 00:08:51,120 Speaker 4: when that happens, will be okay. 175 00:08:51,400 --> 00:08:54,600 Speaker 6: But you will see that that recalibration on wages. 176 00:08:54,880 --> 00:08:57,400 Speaker 3: But that's interesting. So you're saying we see kind of 177 00:08:57,440 --> 00:09:00,320 Speaker 3: a resetting of wages in twenty five, twenty six, in 178 00:09:00,360 --> 00:09:02,480 Speaker 3: twenty four, like in terms of when you're looking at 179 00:09:02,640 --> 00:09:06,880 Speaker 3: the labor market, wage growth, recession risks, that's not a 180 00:09:06,880 --> 00:09:08,600 Speaker 3: twenty four story at all in your view. 181 00:09:08,600 --> 00:09:10,040 Speaker 4: I don't think it's going to be a twenty four stor. 182 00:09:10,040 --> 00:09:11,520 Speaker 4: I think it's going to be a twenty four story 183 00:09:11,520 --> 00:09:13,839 Speaker 4: for two reasons. I think number one, we've still got 184 00:09:13,840 --> 00:09:16,400 Speaker 4: the infrastructure bill, and so what that means is the 185 00:09:16,440 --> 00:09:19,120 Speaker 4: government's hiring people like it hired twenty five percent of 186 00:09:19,160 --> 00:09:22,360 Speaker 4: the one ninety nine that we're added in the November 187 00:09:22,440 --> 00:09:26,360 Speaker 4: jobs report, and that leads to trickle down economics to 188 00:09:26,840 --> 00:09:30,960 Speaker 4: the private sector on the infrastructure package. So we've still 189 00:09:31,000 --> 00:09:34,120 Speaker 4: got this infrastructure package and all those trillions being spent, 190 00:09:34,600 --> 00:09:37,800 Speaker 4: so that keeps things afloat. In twenty four plus, you 191 00:09:37,800 --> 00:09:41,320 Speaker 4: have an election cycle year, which there's obviously incentive for 192 00:09:41,360 --> 00:09:44,520 Speaker 4: that to keep the economy humming as well. So twenty 193 00:09:44,559 --> 00:09:47,560 Speaker 4: four I don't see being a problem whatsoever. I think 194 00:09:47,600 --> 00:09:50,240 Speaker 4: that we're pushing things. We're kicking the can down the 195 00:09:50,320 --> 00:09:50,959 Speaker 4: road a little bit. 196 00:09:51,440 --> 00:09:53,520 Speaker 5: I just want to come back as an intern on 197 00:09:53,559 --> 00:09:55,280 Speaker 5: Wall Street. We're I get one hundred and twenty dollars 198 00:09:55,320 --> 00:09:57,559 Speaker 5: in our next summer. I'll just leave you with that thought. 199 00:09:57,920 --> 00:10:00,320 Speaker 5: That's what we're paid in twenty twenty three. Will they 200 00:10:00,360 --> 00:10:01,920 Speaker 5: be able to command that in twenty twenty four? 201 00:10:03,360 --> 00:10:05,920 Speaker 3: Interesting conversation though, Thank you so much. Tom Gibble again, 202 00:10:06,160 --> 00:10:10,120 Speaker 3: CEO at Lasal Network, joining us via zoom from Chicago. 203 00:10:11,600 --> 00:10:15,040 Speaker 7: You're listening to the team. Ken's a live program Bloomberg 204 00:10:15,080 --> 00:10:18,480 Speaker 7: Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, 205 00:10:18,520 --> 00:10:21,640 Speaker 7: the iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business App, or listen 206 00:10:21,720 --> 00:10:23,840 Speaker 7: on demand wherever you get your podcasts. 207 00:10:25,960 --> 00:10:29,600 Speaker 3: Baby Filton, Manus Granny here filling in for Paul and Matt, 208 00:10:29,920 --> 00:10:34,319 Speaker 3: Joined now by Nancy Tangler, CEO and CIO at Laffer 209 00:10:34,559 --> 00:10:38,920 Speaker 3: Tangler Investments. Here in the Bloomberg Interactive Studio. Nancy, we 210 00:10:38,920 --> 00:10:41,960 Speaker 3: get jobs data, We get University of Michigan sentiment data. 211 00:10:42,559 --> 00:10:45,280 Speaker 3: Markets are trading higher. Too hot to handle this. It 212 00:10:45,360 --> 00:10:48,320 Speaker 3: seems like we were not initially kind of gearing up 213 00:10:48,320 --> 00:10:50,360 Speaker 3: for this kind of a market reaction in the pre 214 00:10:50,400 --> 00:10:50,959 Speaker 3: market trading. 215 00:10:51,200 --> 00:10:53,680 Speaker 8: Yeah, well, I think I think the volatility well, first 216 00:10:53,679 --> 00:10:55,600 Speaker 8: of all, it's friend to the long term investor. So 217 00:10:55,920 --> 00:10:57,920 Speaker 8: if you were in there buying early this morning or 218 00:10:58,000 --> 00:11:00,880 Speaker 8: pre market, you're in good shape. But I also think 219 00:11:00,920 --> 00:11:04,160 Speaker 8: that the Michigan numbers were more important than the jobs numbers. 220 00:11:04,160 --> 00:11:07,160 Speaker 8: They weren't really the jobs numbers that is as robust 221 00:11:07,280 --> 00:11:10,559 Speaker 8: as the headlines indicated. So you saw, you know, the 222 00:11:10,600 --> 00:11:13,320 Speaker 8: return of UAW and screenwriters. You saw a lot of 223 00:11:13,320 --> 00:11:17,320 Speaker 8: healthcare jobs, but manufacturing jobs were down. So I think 224 00:11:17,360 --> 00:11:20,440 Speaker 8: that the initial reaction was ill informed. Remember that it's 225 00:11:20,480 --> 00:11:25,040 Speaker 8: the algorithms that are reading the headlines, you know, driving volatility. 226 00:11:24,800 --> 00:11:28,599 Speaker 8: But the Michigan numbers were actually, I think, quite encouraging, 227 00:11:28,840 --> 00:11:31,080 Speaker 8: and I'm loving this rally. 228 00:11:31,559 --> 00:11:35,199 Speaker 5: Those pesky i'l goes and I have it in good 229 00:11:35,200 --> 00:11:38,160 Speaker 5: authority that they have financial cloud. The one year inflation 230 00:11:38,240 --> 00:11:42,200 Speaker 5: expectations come in at three point one percent on the 231 00:11:42,240 --> 00:11:47,960 Speaker 5: Michigan numbers. Now that is perhaps the more significant piece 232 00:11:48,040 --> 00:11:49,959 Speaker 5: that the bomb market will look towards, isn't it. 233 00:11:50,080 --> 00:11:50,400 Speaker 3: Yeah? 234 00:11:50,440 --> 00:11:53,480 Speaker 8: And hugely better than the market was expected. 235 00:11:53,600 --> 00:11:57,240 Speaker 5: Full point three was the expectation previously full point five percent. 236 00:11:57,600 --> 00:11:59,040 Speaker 9: Yeah, so you're right, man. 237 00:11:59,200 --> 00:12:01,480 Speaker 8: I think one of the things that we've been arguing 238 00:12:01,559 --> 00:12:03,920 Speaker 8: is that inflation, Yes, it is coming down. I think 239 00:12:03,960 --> 00:12:08,440 Speaker 8: what the disconnect between most people and us the financial 240 00:12:09,000 --> 00:12:11,880 Speaker 8: community is that maybe coming down, but there are still 241 00:12:11,920 --> 00:12:13,880 Speaker 8: embedded very high costs. 242 00:12:13,920 --> 00:12:14,240 Speaker 5: I think. 243 00:12:14,400 --> 00:12:16,080 Speaker 9: So that's why I think the Michigan. 244 00:12:15,760 --> 00:12:19,120 Speaker 8: Numbers are so powerful, because there seems to be some 245 00:12:19,160 --> 00:12:22,160 Speaker 8: realization that we're at the end by the consumer. Maybe 246 00:12:22,200 --> 00:12:24,040 Speaker 8: they can you know, sort of absorb some of these 247 00:12:24,120 --> 00:12:24,880 Speaker 8: higher prices. 248 00:12:25,120 --> 00:12:27,480 Speaker 5: Can I just say, as a recent transplant to your 249 00:12:27,559 --> 00:12:32,040 Speaker 5: fine country and your esteemed city, my gosh, it's expensive. 250 00:12:32,080 --> 00:12:35,160 Speaker 5: And I have come from one hallish expensive city, from Dubai, 251 00:12:35,200 --> 00:12:37,719 Speaker 5: from the Middle East on food on boost and there 252 00:12:37,760 --> 00:12:40,360 Speaker 5: was no tax. There was no income tax there. I mean, 253 00:12:40,400 --> 00:12:42,640 Speaker 5: I'm being taxed within an inch of my life? How strong? 254 00:12:42,920 --> 00:12:44,000 Speaker 5: Where do you want to? Where do you want to 255 00:12:44,000 --> 00:12:49,280 Speaker 5: be in this economy? Because this is this the immaculate disinflation? 256 00:12:49,640 --> 00:12:52,480 Speaker 5: Is this the soft landing of these these these sayings 257 00:12:52,520 --> 00:12:55,199 Speaker 5: are so awful, But but how do you position for it? 258 00:12:55,240 --> 00:12:57,760 Speaker 5: Because it doesn't look brootal or hard well man, I. 259 00:12:57,760 --> 00:13:00,880 Speaker 8: Think we were talking pre show that. My analogy is 260 00:13:00,920 --> 00:13:02,400 Speaker 8: I was alive in the nineties. 261 00:13:02,080 --> 00:13:03,880 Speaker 9: And as was I, I was. 262 00:13:03,840 --> 00:13:08,320 Speaker 8: Managing just for the director show barely and I was 263 00:13:08,360 --> 00:13:11,400 Speaker 8: managing billions of dollars. And this feels a lot like that. 264 00:13:11,640 --> 00:13:13,720 Speaker 8: So you have what I would call and some are 265 00:13:13,720 --> 00:13:19,840 Speaker 8: calling the Fourth Industrial Revolution or a supercycle in technology, digitization, generative, 266 00:13:19,840 --> 00:13:23,959 Speaker 8: cloud computing. I mean, just look at Broadcoms numbers last night, 267 00:13:24,040 --> 00:13:27,120 Speaker 8: and that's the poor man's Nvidia. So if you look 268 00:13:27,160 --> 00:13:30,760 Speaker 8: at that and you say, okay, we had higher inflation, 269 00:13:31,240 --> 00:13:34,200 Speaker 8: we had interest rates that were five to eight percent 270 00:13:34,280 --> 00:13:36,920 Speaker 8: in the nineties, we had an inverted yield curve what 271 00:13:37,080 --> 00:13:39,800 Speaker 8: was called then ASoft landing. I'm not predicting one this time. 272 00:13:40,120 --> 00:13:42,040 Speaker 8: We had a war, we had a recession at the 273 00:13:42,040 --> 00:13:44,920 Speaker 8: beginning of the decade, and yet the Nasdaq was up 274 00:13:44,960 --> 00:13:46,800 Speaker 8: over eight percent, the Dow and the S and P 275 00:13:46,920 --> 00:13:49,480 Speaker 8: were up over four hundred percent. So I think stocks 276 00:13:49,480 --> 00:13:51,840 Speaker 8: can continue to do well in hell here the surprise 277 00:13:51,920 --> 00:13:54,880 Speaker 8: is going to be earnings, I think for most investors, 278 00:13:54,960 --> 00:13:57,280 Speaker 8: and I think what we're seeing now is that for 279 00:13:57,320 --> 00:13:59,840 Speaker 8: the most part, the market's not listening to the FED anymore, 280 00:14:00,200 --> 00:14:02,880 Speaker 8: which I've said, and we don't need to debate. 281 00:14:02,920 --> 00:14:05,199 Speaker 9: It has a credible ratesgized. 282 00:14:06,559 --> 00:14:09,839 Speaker 8: Has a credibility problem for sure. So I want to 283 00:14:09,880 --> 00:14:12,719 Speaker 8: be in overweight technology. I want to be overweight industrials 284 00:14:12,720 --> 00:14:14,920 Speaker 8: because the pmis are bondbing when. 285 00:14:14,720 --> 00:14:18,440 Speaker 3: You're looking at technology, though, is that predominantly within the 286 00:14:18,480 --> 00:14:20,920 Speaker 3: Magnificent seven and friends or you're looking at kind of 287 00:14:20,960 --> 00:14:23,280 Speaker 3: more of a widespread rally within tech. 288 00:14:23,560 --> 00:14:23,800 Speaker 5: Yeah. 289 00:14:23,880 --> 00:14:26,520 Speaker 8: So, so the companies that are so our investing theme 290 00:14:26,560 --> 00:14:30,480 Speaker 8: is old economy companies Bailey that are pivoting to digitization 291 00:14:30,560 --> 00:14:33,160 Speaker 8: and embracing it, and then the new the companies that 292 00:14:33,200 --> 00:14:36,080 Speaker 8: are providing those tools. So so our biggest holdings in 293 00:14:36,120 --> 00:14:41,240 Speaker 8: technology would be Microsoft, Palleto Network Service, now Broadcom. 294 00:14:42,000 --> 00:14:43,920 Speaker 9: I'm probably forgetting half a dozen of them. 295 00:14:43,960 --> 00:14:47,560 Speaker 8: But the names that that are going to drive this 296 00:14:47,760 --> 00:14:49,120 Speaker 8: next supercycle. 297 00:14:49,880 --> 00:14:51,480 Speaker 9: I'm not interested in meta. 298 00:14:52,240 --> 00:14:54,640 Speaker 8: We own a little bit of Google, uh, but we 299 00:14:54,680 --> 00:14:58,680 Speaker 8: want those are in some ways glorified ad companies. We 300 00:14:58,720 --> 00:15:01,080 Speaker 8: want the ones the company instead of driving it. 301 00:15:01,080 --> 00:15:03,920 Speaker 5: It's interesting because when we've had a variety of people 302 00:15:03,920 --> 00:15:06,640 Speaker 5: in through the morning time talking about the propensity for 303 00:15:06,760 --> 00:15:09,680 Speaker 5: mag seven to deliver out sized returns in twenty twenty 304 00:15:09,680 --> 00:15:11,960 Speaker 5: four may well be more challenged, and perhaps you want 305 00:15:11,960 --> 00:15:14,520 Speaker 5: to go a little bit more for breadth. At the 306 00:15:14,600 --> 00:15:16,480 Speaker 5: end of every year, I'm waiting for the Goldmen's report 307 00:15:16,520 --> 00:15:20,440 Speaker 5: to come out on buybacks or whatever. But this is 308 00:15:20,480 --> 00:15:25,240 Speaker 5: where I want to get your sense. Buybacks are incredibly important. 309 00:15:25,400 --> 00:15:29,120 Speaker 5: Apple intermittently do it, and we spend the whole day 310 00:15:29,360 --> 00:15:32,400 Speaker 5: gorging on Apples buy back and bond issue and stuffun 311 00:15:32,480 --> 00:15:36,160 Speaker 5: and whatever. But where will buy backs put a floor 312 00:15:36,160 --> 00:15:36,680 Speaker 5: in this mode? 313 00:15:36,760 --> 00:15:39,120 Speaker 8: Absolutely to what extent took the words right out of 314 00:15:39,120 --> 00:15:39,440 Speaker 8: my mouth. 315 00:15:39,520 --> 00:15:40,600 Speaker 5: It's from the script. 316 00:15:43,120 --> 00:15:45,760 Speaker 9: You secretly did I say? 317 00:15:46,120 --> 00:15:47,000 Speaker 6: How did I read that? 318 00:15:47,560 --> 00:15:48,320 Speaker 9: You said it better? 319 00:15:49,320 --> 00:15:51,720 Speaker 8: Yeah, I think clearly they are going to. And one 320 00:15:51,760 --> 00:15:53,920 Speaker 8: of the things that drives when we'll continue to drive 321 00:15:53,960 --> 00:15:57,080 Speaker 8: that is the insatiable appetite that the shadow banking system 322 00:15:57,120 --> 00:15:59,480 Speaker 8: has for corporate bonds. But if you just look at 323 00:15:59,480 --> 00:16:00,920 Speaker 8: the mag seven and it's not all of them, I 324 00:16:00,920 --> 00:16:03,720 Speaker 8: think it's four or five. They're going to issue one 325 00:16:03,800 --> 00:16:06,720 Speaker 8: hundred billion dollars in share buybacks over the next year 326 00:16:06,800 --> 00:16:10,040 Speaker 8: or two, or claim a one hundred billion, however you want 327 00:16:10,040 --> 00:16:13,120 Speaker 8: to say that. I think that's what we saw in 328 00:16:13,200 --> 00:16:16,280 Speaker 8: twenty twenty and twenty nineteen, and that's what we're going 329 00:16:16,320 --> 00:16:18,120 Speaker 8: to continue to see in twenty twenty three. 330 00:16:18,160 --> 00:16:18,640 Speaker 9: It is, and. 331 00:16:18,920 --> 00:16:22,960 Speaker 8: As Apple's a big chunk of that. So you just 332 00:16:23,000 --> 00:16:24,680 Speaker 8: need them to do what they say they're going to do. 333 00:16:24,840 --> 00:16:27,359 Speaker 8: And so I think you buy the dips in technology. 334 00:16:27,400 --> 00:16:29,240 Speaker 8: And I know there's a lot of people that are 335 00:16:29,240 --> 00:16:30,360 Speaker 8: saying the tech trade is over. 336 00:16:30,440 --> 00:16:32,600 Speaker 9: I just don't agree. I think they're ill informed. 337 00:16:32,720 --> 00:16:34,960 Speaker 3: Well, I'm looking at kind of the catch up trade, 338 00:16:35,000 --> 00:16:37,320 Speaker 3: if you will. We're seeing the equal weighted SMP catching 339 00:16:37,400 --> 00:16:41,400 Speaker 3: up really since that November late October bottom. How do 340 00:16:41,440 --> 00:16:44,680 Speaker 3: you see that playing out in different areas? You mentioned industrials. 341 00:16:44,760 --> 00:16:46,840 Speaker 3: Is that a place that you're continuing to put cash 342 00:16:46,880 --> 00:16:49,800 Speaker 3: to work. What names do you like within the industrial space. 343 00:16:50,000 --> 00:16:52,240 Speaker 8: Yeah, so we like the ones that are automating. And 344 00:16:52,280 --> 00:16:54,840 Speaker 8: I would say broadening out is great for portfolio managers 345 00:16:54,840 --> 00:16:57,560 Speaker 8: because we have to be diversified, Bailey, So you can't 346 00:16:57,600 --> 00:17:00,840 Speaker 8: put all your eggs in the technology basket. But you know, 347 00:17:00,920 --> 00:17:03,480 Speaker 8: Carriers one of our largest holdings in industrials. You saw 348 00:17:03,480 --> 00:17:09,560 Speaker 8: it pop today on the sale. We also like Illinois Toolworks. 349 00:17:09,680 --> 00:17:13,560 Speaker 8: We have exposure to Emerson Electric, and we actually have 350 00:17:13,600 --> 00:17:16,240 Speaker 8: exposure in a different portfolio to Honeywell, so it has 351 00:17:16,320 --> 00:17:19,520 Speaker 8: done not nearly as well as those names. But I 352 00:17:19,560 --> 00:17:21,600 Speaker 8: think you still want to be in the short cycle 353 00:17:21,840 --> 00:17:26,040 Speaker 8: of industrials and then broaden out in We have a 354 00:17:26,080 --> 00:17:29,880 Speaker 8: market weight in healthcare, we have a market weight in financials, 355 00:17:29,920 --> 00:17:33,680 Speaker 8: and an overweight and consumer discretionary, so broadening out is great. 356 00:17:34,240 --> 00:17:36,920 Speaker 8: We were adding risks back into our portfolios in October 357 00:17:36,920 --> 00:17:39,360 Speaker 8: of twenty twenty two, so we were adding to technology 358 00:17:39,400 --> 00:17:42,520 Speaker 8: when the last death no was issued, and we will 359 00:17:42,560 --> 00:17:44,600 Speaker 8: continue to do that as we have the opportunity. 360 00:17:44,800 --> 00:17:49,000 Speaker 3: You mentioned consumer discretionary. It's the chatters died down a bit. 361 00:17:49,119 --> 00:17:52,280 Speaker 3: But what's your thought on kind of this ozempic trend 362 00:17:52,359 --> 00:17:55,280 Speaker 3: and is that really going to reshape the entire economy 363 00:17:55,280 --> 00:17:56,159 Speaker 3: and how people spend. 364 00:17:56,359 --> 00:17:57,520 Speaker 9: I don't think so, Bailey. 365 00:17:57,640 --> 00:18:00,280 Speaker 8: I mean, you know, I was around when we had 366 00:18:00,320 --> 00:18:02,520 Speaker 8: fen Fenn and for a while it was great, and 367 00:18:02,600 --> 00:18:04,919 Speaker 8: then all the side effects showed up, and I just 368 00:18:04,920 --> 00:18:07,560 Speaker 8: don't think there's enough data. And I was just in 369 00:18:07,600 --> 00:18:11,600 Speaker 8: the Midwest and they have not gotten the ozembic message 370 00:18:12,040 --> 00:18:14,200 Speaker 8: or the memo, So I think I think it will 371 00:18:14,200 --> 00:18:17,359 Speaker 8: have an impact mildly, but I don't think it's going 372 00:18:17,440 --> 00:18:21,239 Speaker 8: to hurt these companies, like the initial reaction indicated. 373 00:18:20,880 --> 00:18:22,879 Speaker 5: And then just very quickly you look at we have 374 00:18:22,920 --> 00:18:25,360 Speaker 5: a big take story this morning talking about Hermes having 375 00:18:25,400 --> 00:18:29,400 Speaker 5: delivered one thousand percent returns since they batted away LVMH. 376 00:18:29,920 --> 00:18:32,560 Speaker 5: You know, do you feel confident at all in taking 377 00:18:32,600 --> 00:18:36,080 Speaker 5: some of the higher, let's say, the premium names relative 378 00:18:36,160 --> 00:18:39,840 Speaker 5: to Henny's a very European number. I'm learning as I 379 00:18:39,920 --> 00:18:41,200 Speaker 5: go here in terms of what's big on the high 380 00:18:41,200 --> 00:18:43,639 Speaker 5: street and anything. Are you so comfortable with taking any 381 00:18:43,680 --> 00:18:45,040 Speaker 5: of the higher value luxury names. 382 00:18:45,119 --> 00:18:47,240 Speaker 8: Yeah, I mean we do own Lululemon, and it looks 383 00:18:47,280 --> 00:18:49,639 Speaker 8: to me like it turned around this morning when I 384 00:18:49,640 --> 00:18:53,080 Speaker 8: was walking over here, and that's because they are a 385 00:18:53,119 --> 00:18:56,560 Speaker 8: premium provider and they are delivered, they've delivered, and they're 386 00:18:56,600 --> 00:18:57,160 Speaker 8: adding two. 387 00:18:57,160 --> 00:18:59,600 Speaker 5: Already, one sixteen up sixteen bucks. 388 00:18:59,760 --> 00:19:00,560 Speaker 9: Yeah, I'll take it. 389 00:19:00,600 --> 00:19:04,399 Speaker 8: And then we own Nike, so that's another name in 390 00:19:04,440 --> 00:19:06,880 Speaker 8: that space that you know, can be high with. 391 00:19:06,880 --> 00:19:09,000 Speaker 3: Those, somewhat high end with those though, like again a 392 00:19:09,080 --> 00:19:12,960 Speaker 3: somewhat high end definitely areas that are targeted to the 393 00:19:13,000 --> 00:19:15,200 Speaker 3: younger generation, people who want to spend when you look 394 00:19:15,240 --> 00:19:16,800 Speaker 3: at you, that is me. I know I don't want 395 00:19:16,800 --> 00:19:17,359 Speaker 3: to for. 396 00:19:17,240 --> 00:19:20,480 Speaker 9: People we're spending like crazy. 397 00:19:20,600 --> 00:19:22,200 Speaker 5: I'm technically not a baby boomer yet. 398 00:19:22,280 --> 00:19:24,359 Speaker 3: Go on, we've got about thirty seconds. But how are 399 00:19:24,400 --> 00:19:28,000 Speaker 3: you thinking about kind of the strength of the consumer 400 00:19:28,080 --> 00:19:31,040 Speaker 3: into twenty twenty four, just given how much the younger 401 00:19:31,119 --> 00:19:33,600 Speaker 3: generations have been putting on credit card debt and things 402 00:19:33,640 --> 00:19:34,320 Speaker 3: like buy now papers. 403 00:19:34,400 --> 00:19:36,159 Speaker 8: Yeah, great for American Express, by the way, which we 404 00:19:36,200 --> 00:19:38,800 Speaker 8: also own. So I would say that people spend when 405 00:19:38,800 --> 00:19:40,640 Speaker 8: they're working, and they spend out of their net worth. 406 00:19:40,680 --> 00:19:43,280 Speaker 8: Americans have one hundred and fifty four trillion dollars in 407 00:19:43,320 --> 00:19:45,960 Speaker 8: net worth, half of which is in with my generational 408 00:19:46,040 --> 00:19:48,800 Speaker 8: core cohort, which is the baby boomers. They are going 409 00:19:48,840 --> 00:19:51,280 Speaker 8: to continue to spend. They have no debt for the 410 00:19:51,280 --> 00:19:53,520 Speaker 8: most part, and they will continue to spend. So I 411 00:19:53,520 --> 00:19:56,560 Speaker 8: think high end is good. We're looking at LVMH looking 412 00:19:56,560 --> 00:19:59,200 Speaker 8: for an entry point, and I'm going to run over 413 00:19:59,240 --> 00:20:02,200 Speaker 8: to a MA now that you reminded me, I. 414 00:20:02,119 --> 00:20:03,159 Speaker 5: Can't afford to going through this. 415 00:20:05,320 --> 00:20:07,000 Speaker 3: We got to leave it there though. Thank you so much. 416 00:20:07,119 --> 00:20:11,119 Speaker 3: Nancy Taylor, she is the CEO and CIO at Laffer 417 00:20:11,320 --> 00:20:12,560 Speaker 3: Tangler Investments. 418 00:20:12,880 --> 00:20:16,000 Speaker 7: You're listening to the tape cats are live program Bloomberg 419 00:20:16,080 --> 00:20:19,679 Speaker 7: Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the 420 00:20:19,720 --> 00:20:22,960 Speaker 7: tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business App. 421 00:20:23,000 --> 00:20:25,800 Speaker 7: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 422 00:20:25,840 --> 00:20:32,200 Speaker 7: flagship New York station. Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty, Ley. 423 00:20:32,200 --> 00:20:35,600 Speaker 3: Lip Schultz and Nathan Hay're hanging out with you here 424 00:20:35,680 --> 00:20:39,520 Speaker 3: on Bloomberg Markets. Paul and Matt are both off busy 425 00:20:39,640 --> 00:20:43,400 Speaker 3: jobs Day Friday. Right now, looking at the markets. You've 426 00:20:43,440 --> 00:20:46,360 Speaker 3: got the SMP relatively flat, as is the Dow and 427 00:20:46,440 --> 00:20:48,719 Speaker 3: the Nasdaq, but keeping an eye on the two year 428 00:20:48,720 --> 00:20:51,439 Speaker 3: old at four spot seven to one percent and on 429 00:20:51,520 --> 00:20:54,320 Speaker 3: the ten year four spot two four percent. Right now, 430 00:20:54,400 --> 00:20:57,720 Speaker 3: we are joined in the Interactive Broker studio by Ben Emmons. 431 00:20:57,840 --> 00:21:00,600 Speaker 3: He is the head of fixed income at new A Wealth, 432 00:21:00,760 --> 00:21:04,560 Speaker 3: talking the market, talking jobs and what stands out to 433 00:21:04,600 --> 00:21:06,879 Speaker 3: you because headline numbers seemed hot, but there are a 434 00:21:06,880 --> 00:21:08,960 Speaker 3: lot of things to kind of look at under the 435 00:21:08,960 --> 00:21:10,000 Speaker 3: hood on this report. 436 00:21:10,240 --> 00:21:12,600 Speaker 10: Yeah, what I was looking at this morning was the 437 00:21:12,640 --> 00:21:16,960 Speaker 10: ADP report first, and I noted that the leisure and 438 00:21:17,000 --> 00:21:20,080 Speaker 10: Hospitality was negative in the ADP report, and ADP is 439 00:21:20,160 --> 00:21:23,800 Speaker 10: leading in some of the sectors NFP reports, So I 440 00:21:23,840 --> 00:21:26,760 Speaker 10: was surprised to see a forty k gain in leisure 441 00:21:27,080 --> 00:21:30,560 Speaker 10: in this report, and it jumps out because there's a 442 00:21:30,600 --> 00:21:32,919 Speaker 10: lot of job growth out of that sector of the 443 00:21:32,960 --> 00:21:36,640 Speaker 10: last years now and it's very consistent, so it's still 444 00:21:36,680 --> 00:21:40,520 Speaker 10: not slowing down. And I take comform them saying like, well, 445 00:21:40,560 --> 00:21:42,879 Speaker 10: this job market may be quote code loosening if you 446 00:21:42,920 --> 00:21:45,040 Speaker 10: think of the job openings, or you think of even 447 00:21:45,080 --> 00:21:49,080 Speaker 10: if you can tell someone in continuing claims or auto measures, 448 00:21:49,480 --> 00:21:52,320 Speaker 10: but you think of leisure, that's like a growth engine 449 00:21:52,320 --> 00:21:57,880 Speaker 10: for this job market, and that's I think positive against Look, 450 00:21:57,960 --> 00:21:59,760 Speaker 10: it was good to see this influx of people back 451 00:21:59,760 --> 00:22:02,000 Speaker 10: in the labor forces the other guests was talking about 452 00:22:02,680 --> 00:22:08,600 Speaker 10: and the guest was talking about. But it's important there 453 00:22:08,640 --> 00:22:15,000 Speaker 10: to notice that the share of foreign immigrants as part 454 00:22:15,080 --> 00:22:17,679 Speaker 10: of the labor force that's increasing now up to twenty percent. 455 00:22:18,160 --> 00:22:19,760 Speaker 10: So I think what's going on in the last few 456 00:22:19,840 --> 00:22:21,600 Speaker 10: years is that as we get more people coming into 457 00:22:21,640 --> 00:22:23,960 Speaker 10: the country, they get into labor force to find work 458 00:22:24,040 --> 00:22:27,000 Speaker 10: really quick and I think that's a really important development 459 00:22:27,040 --> 00:22:30,600 Speaker 10: because if that continues, not only that that keeps the 460 00:22:30,680 --> 00:22:34,159 Speaker 10: job market like humming and going. It also is for 461 00:22:34,200 --> 00:22:37,920 Speaker 10: productivity really important. And so the average charity earnings although 462 00:22:37,960 --> 00:22:40,119 Speaker 10: they were up, but it was like four tenths of 463 00:22:40,160 --> 00:22:43,480 Speaker 10: percent versus forecast point three. You know that's not like 464 00:22:43,560 --> 00:22:46,560 Speaker 10: a dramatic increase such that that's really because of the 465 00:22:46,560 --> 00:22:50,879 Speaker 10: effect on productivity. So it isn't a way a Goldilarcks number, 466 00:22:52,000 --> 00:22:55,640 Speaker 10: a Goldilocks reports and why the markets are as they are. 467 00:22:55,760 --> 00:22:57,679 Speaker 10: I mean, you would expect yields to jump by this 468 00:22:57,840 --> 00:22:59,600 Speaker 10: much and you would think that starts with rally and 469 00:22:59,600 --> 00:23:02,840 Speaker 10: that's exactly what's going on. So again a job support 470 00:23:03,320 --> 00:23:06,080 Speaker 10: that says to me, this is an economy that does 471 00:23:06,119 --> 00:23:08,760 Speaker 10: not warrant the successful amount of ray cuts that we're 472 00:23:08,760 --> 00:23:10,400 Speaker 10: seeing being priced in the market. 473 00:23:10,920 --> 00:23:13,719 Speaker 11: Hey, Ben, it's Nathan in DC. Good to speak with 474 00:23:13,760 --> 00:23:17,040 Speaker 11: you again. Does that mean that you're thinking that this 475 00:23:17,160 --> 00:23:20,320 Speaker 11: job market is going to continue on this trajectory of 476 00:23:20,359 --> 00:23:22,639 Speaker 11: the kind of growth that we have seen that's defied 477 00:23:23,080 --> 00:23:26,800 Speaker 11: so much of what economists have been expecting for literally 478 00:23:26,880 --> 00:23:27,560 Speaker 11: months now. 479 00:23:28,440 --> 00:23:30,800 Speaker 10: Yeah, it does look like that, Nathan, because you know 480 00:23:30,880 --> 00:23:35,240 Speaker 10: that the strikes you see being added into the the headline, 481 00:23:35,600 --> 00:23:38,119 Speaker 10: but the strikes itself did not have ripple effects in 482 00:23:38,119 --> 00:23:40,960 Speaker 10: the economy that some people feared like, and meaning you 483 00:23:41,000 --> 00:23:44,119 Speaker 10: would get wider spread job losses because of all the disruption, 484 00:23:45,480 --> 00:23:49,200 Speaker 10: and you know, against somewhat the layoff trends that are 485 00:23:49,280 --> 00:23:53,359 Speaker 10: ongoing and the job opening is declining, that that is 486 00:23:53,440 --> 00:23:56,560 Speaker 10: really just a marginal loosening of the labor market that 487 00:23:56,680 --> 00:23:58,960 Speaker 10: allows other people to come back in and find work. 488 00:23:59,080 --> 00:24:01,760 Speaker 10: So it's it's a better of labor markets. It's a 489 00:24:01,840 --> 00:24:04,840 Speaker 10: market with the momentum. You know, the cancers fat put 490 00:24:04,880 --> 00:24:08,879 Speaker 10: out a puts out a labor momentum index, and I 491 00:24:09,000 --> 00:24:11,680 Speaker 10: noted that that index actually barely changed the last sort 492 00:24:11,680 --> 00:24:14,920 Speaker 10: of six months, meaning has not really declined in any way, 493 00:24:14,960 --> 00:24:18,639 Speaker 10: even though you're seeing like for example, job openings declining 494 00:24:18,880 --> 00:24:22,160 Speaker 10: or other indicator the clinding, which means loosening, that does 495 00:24:22,240 --> 00:24:24,600 Speaker 10: indicate that people can find work and that there's momentum 496 00:24:24,600 --> 00:24:25,320 Speaker 10: in the same market. 497 00:24:25,640 --> 00:24:27,600 Speaker 3: And then I'm looking at the warp function. Right now, 498 00:24:27,600 --> 00:24:30,120 Speaker 3: we've got about a coin flip odds for a first 499 00:24:30,160 --> 00:24:32,680 Speaker 3: rate hike in March, and it looks like just over 500 00:24:32,840 --> 00:24:37,920 Speaker 3: four expected in twenty twenty four. What's the markets read 501 00:24:37,960 --> 00:24:40,400 Speaker 3: on kind of where the FED sits where we can 502 00:24:40,440 --> 00:24:41,480 Speaker 3: take some of this data. 503 00:24:41,880 --> 00:24:44,719 Speaker 10: Yeah, if you take today's report, it does not argue 504 00:24:45,000 --> 00:24:48,480 Speaker 10: that the FEDS should go ahead and match market expectations, 505 00:24:49,200 --> 00:24:51,359 Speaker 10: but we got to take note of what happened in June. 506 00:24:51,520 --> 00:24:53,760 Speaker 10: They actually had pencils in the Hunter basements of cuts 507 00:24:53,760 --> 00:24:56,320 Speaker 10: at that time and then revises of them in the faifty. Right, 508 00:24:56,400 --> 00:24:58,960 Speaker 10: and now the market is back to Hana plus. So 509 00:24:59,600 --> 00:25:01,760 Speaker 10: they could actually go back and say, hey, guess what 510 00:25:01,800 --> 00:25:03,600 Speaker 10: would just go along with the market. But I think 511 00:25:03,600 --> 00:25:06,880 Speaker 10: a report like this probably tells them like, we don't 512 00:25:06,920 --> 00:25:10,240 Speaker 10: actually have to. It's really, you know, highlighting how we 513 00:25:10,280 --> 00:25:14,720 Speaker 10: think about the economy. It's moderating. It is a software lending, 514 00:25:14,720 --> 00:25:17,280 Speaker 10: even though it's not an official language, but it's an 515 00:25:17,320 --> 00:25:20,679 Speaker 10: economy where they've done enough with restrictive policy rates so 516 00:25:20,720 --> 00:25:24,600 Speaker 10: that it can get to a better stable, you know state, 517 00:25:25,280 --> 00:25:28,440 Speaker 10: and as a result, you don't have to necessarily forecast 518 00:25:28,520 --> 00:25:31,159 Speaker 10: all those Ray cuts. I think that's next week, the 519 00:25:31,240 --> 00:25:33,199 Speaker 10: tension in the markets it will be. I think some 520 00:25:33,280 --> 00:25:37,240 Speaker 10: are taken back where Powell will be well, it sounds hockeys, 521 00:25:37,240 --> 00:25:40,040 Speaker 10: but really was saying like, see, we have enough data 522 00:25:40,080 --> 00:25:43,080 Speaker 10: points to prove to you markets that these raycuts are 523 00:25:43,080 --> 00:25:45,760 Speaker 10: probably over extended, and as he said in the speech 524 00:25:46,000 --> 00:25:48,920 Speaker 10: a week ago, you know, he diffused the speculation there. 525 00:25:48,960 --> 00:25:50,840 Speaker 10: You don't need to speculate on raycuts, and so I 526 00:25:50,840 --> 00:25:52,879 Speaker 10: think that will be big message next week. 527 00:25:54,040 --> 00:25:57,160 Speaker 11: Yeah, I wanted to ask whether the narrative shifts when 528 00:25:57,200 --> 00:25:59,600 Speaker 11: we get that inflation data next week. What do you 529 00:25:59,600 --> 00:26:01,400 Speaker 11: think we're going to see from CPI. 530 00:26:02,119 --> 00:26:04,879 Speaker 10: Yeah, there will be pressure on CPI from the energy 531 00:26:05,160 --> 00:26:08,040 Speaker 10: effect of the last month or so, Nathan, because that 532 00:26:08,040 --> 00:26:10,840 Speaker 10: that clearly will filter through now and you can tell 533 00:26:10,920 --> 00:26:14,720 Speaker 10: right from from the now cast of CPI or how 534 00:26:14,800 --> 00:26:18,240 Speaker 10: the market is pricing CPI. I think that's fairly accurate. 535 00:26:18,800 --> 00:26:22,200 Speaker 10: On the other hand, the sticky items that we're been 536 00:26:22,240 --> 00:26:25,719 Speaker 10: following for many months probably stay sticky year, and that 537 00:26:25,720 --> 00:26:29,240 Speaker 10: this not seems to be too much movement yet to 538 00:26:29,359 --> 00:26:32,360 Speaker 10: happen there, even though the last CPI report was such 539 00:26:32,359 --> 00:26:36,880 Speaker 10: a I guess groundbreaking data point of the owner's equivalent 540 00:26:36,960 --> 00:26:41,159 Speaker 10: rent finally declining is the pandemic pressure gets out of 541 00:26:41,200 --> 00:26:43,800 Speaker 10: that component. So that will be the big topic for 542 00:26:43,880 --> 00:26:47,560 Speaker 10: next week too. Will see in continuing decline. If so, 543 00:26:48,280 --> 00:26:50,600 Speaker 10: probably the market will take it favorably. But for the 544 00:26:50,600 --> 00:26:52,520 Speaker 10: fat that's all again playing in their hands and their 545 00:26:52,520 --> 00:26:54,919 Speaker 10: message like this is what they have been forecasting and 546 00:26:54,960 --> 00:26:57,560 Speaker 10: what they've been expecting. So to them, it's more of 547 00:26:58,160 --> 00:26:59,960 Speaker 10: a vindication of that they're restrictive. 548 00:27:00,040 --> 00:27:04,160 Speaker 3: Atto she's working and looking at some of the granular data. 549 00:27:04,400 --> 00:27:06,880 Speaker 3: I keep coming back to wage growth because it does 550 00:27:06,880 --> 00:27:09,120 Speaker 3: seem like the FED is very much fixated. Obviously that's 551 00:27:09,320 --> 00:27:11,600 Speaker 3: a big driver for inflation. When you look at the 552 00:27:11,640 --> 00:27:14,200 Speaker 3: print from today, when you look at expectations into twenty 553 00:27:14,240 --> 00:27:16,640 Speaker 3: twenty four for wage growth, how does that play out 554 00:27:16,640 --> 00:27:18,879 Speaker 3: and how does that factor into inflation and what the 555 00:27:18,920 --> 00:27:20,199 Speaker 3: FED can and will do. 556 00:27:21,080 --> 00:27:24,200 Speaker 10: Yeah, the wage trackers from the Atlanta FED have all 557 00:27:24,200 --> 00:27:28,960 Speaker 10: shown a moderation most sectors, including the leisure sector. I 558 00:27:29,000 --> 00:27:31,480 Speaker 10: think it's only a two a somewhat of a soft 559 00:27:31,560 --> 00:27:35,000 Speaker 10: landing type path, just like how inflation has come down 560 00:27:35,040 --> 00:27:38,000 Speaker 10: in a soft landing mode, and as basically the economy 561 00:27:38,080 --> 00:27:41,399 Speaker 10: since twenty twenty one has been declining down. So and 562 00:27:41,480 --> 00:27:44,240 Speaker 10: it's also effect of productivity. Right, we have a significant 563 00:27:44,240 --> 00:27:47,520 Speaker 10: productivity pickup this year, so wage growth should start to 564 00:27:47,600 --> 00:27:51,280 Speaker 10: moderate as more people get in the labor force and 565 00:27:51,359 --> 00:27:54,399 Speaker 10: you're getting somewhat of a. You know, i'd say supply 566 00:27:54,400 --> 00:27:57,960 Speaker 10: and dement, you know, rebalance and therefore that wage pressure 567 00:27:58,040 --> 00:28:02,720 Speaker 10: eases off again. That is favorable to the economy because 568 00:28:02,720 --> 00:28:06,800 Speaker 10: it doesn't mean like it's outright wage deflation first foremost. Second, 569 00:28:06,880 --> 00:28:09,960 Speaker 10: you know, the real wages are likely going to be 570 00:28:10,080 --> 00:28:13,879 Speaker 10: improving given that what inflation is doing. So I do 571 00:28:13,960 --> 00:28:17,119 Speaker 10: think it's a positive development. You know, look the average 572 00:28:17,160 --> 00:28:19,520 Speaker 10: arlity earns. We're a little bit up this today in 573 00:28:19,520 --> 00:28:23,320 Speaker 10: this report, you know, but not like alarming. The effect 574 00:28:23,440 --> 00:28:27,720 Speaker 10: from the UAW negotiations, for example, isn't yet coming really true, 575 00:28:27,880 --> 00:28:29,280 Speaker 10: So I'm not so sure if it if it's a 576 00:28:29,280 --> 00:28:31,560 Speaker 10: wage price viiral idea, it's more of a moderation. 577 00:28:32,800 --> 00:28:36,160 Speaker 11: So is there room ben for rate cuts of any 578 00:28:36,200 --> 00:28:39,640 Speaker 11: size next year? I mean, I know there's still a 579 00:28:39,640 --> 00:28:41,960 Speaker 11: debate about, you know, whether we're going to see cuts 580 00:28:42,000 --> 00:28:44,520 Speaker 11: as aggressive as the market's been pricing. But do you 581 00:28:44,560 --> 00:28:47,200 Speaker 11: see cuts in any stretch next year? 582 00:28:47,720 --> 00:28:50,640 Speaker 10: So I find there's a really important question Nathan could 583 00:28:50,640 --> 00:28:52,560 Speaker 10: think about what we're going to go into next year. 584 00:28:52,640 --> 00:28:56,280 Speaker 10: It's an election year and attention will be about the 585 00:28:56,320 --> 00:28:59,880 Speaker 10: economy obviously, and we know that if you keep raged 586 00:29:00,080 --> 00:29:03,560 Speaker 10: too restrictive that that could affect the economy really negatively 587 00:29:03,680 --> 00:29:06,680 Speaker 10: against you know, whatever physical stimulus that we're still pumping 588 00:29:06,720 --> 00:29:08,959 Speaker 10: into the economy does start to fade off. And if 589 00:29:09,000 --> 00:29:11,680 Speaker 10: you take it against that backdrop and the FAT continues 590 00:29:11,720 --> 00:29:15,320 Speaker 10: to make ground against inflation, then it has put out 591 00:29:15,320 --> 00:29:18,680 Speaker 10: this framework to manage this politically, saying, look, we have 592 00:29:18,760 --> 00:29:21,040 Speaker 10: a high rate. We can bring it somewhere down as 593 00:29:21,080 --> 00:29:24,440 Speaker 10: inflation is declining because you know the difference between the 594 00:29:24,480 --> 00:29:27,640 Speaker 10: nominal rate and inflation is getting wider, and therefore leave 595 00:29:27,720 --> 00:29:30,160 Speaker 10: some room to have the nominal rate go down and 596 00:29:30,160 --> 00:29:32,760 Speaker 10: that will be your rate cut. But it's literally taking 597 00:29:32,800 --> 00:29:35,760 Speaker 10: out the most restrictive part from the FAT funds rate 598 00:29:35,760 --> 00:29:38,880 Speaker 10: a little bit down. It's like insurance raycut, as I say, 599 00:29:39,240 --> 00:29:41,920 Speaker 10: you know that the protection against the downside of the 600 00:29:41,720 --> 00:29:45,840 Speaker 10: of the for the economy. It's nothing about like an 601 00:29:45,880 --> 00:29:48,800 Speaker 10: alarming raycut. Okay, we've got an ease policy really aggressively 602 00:29:48,840 --> 00:29:50,600 Speaker 10: because we're about to slip in the major downtown. 603 00:29:51,560 --> 00:29:53,760 Speaker 3: Got to leave it there, Ben Emmons, thank you so much. 604 00:29:53,800 --> 00:29:56,360 Speaker 3: Had to fixed income at New Edge Wealth, joining us 605 00:29:56,400 --> 00:30:00,920 Speaker 3: here in the Bloomberg Interactive Broker's studio again all eyes 606 00:30:01,000 --> 00:30:02,880 Speaker 3: on the job, support and some of the data that 607 00:30:02,920 --> 00:30:03,600 Speaker 3: we've been seeing. 608 00:30:04,400 --> 00:30:07,520 Speaker 7: You're listening to the tape. Catch a live program Bloomberg 609 00:30:07,600 --> 00:30:11,200 Speaker 7: Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the 610 00:30:11,240 --> 00:30:14,480 Speaker 7: tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business App. 611 00:30:14,520 --> 00:30:17,320 Speaker 7: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 612 00:30:17,360 --> 00:30:21,760 Speaker 7: flagship New York station, Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 613 00:30:21,960 --> 00:30:28,720 Speaker 11: One of the big political stories of the last few days, 614 00:30:29,200 --> 00:30:33,360 Speaker 11: in the aftermath and the ongoing turmoil that we're seeing 615 00:30:33,360 --> 00:30:37,280 Speaker 11: in the Middle East, is this reaction that we've seen 616 00:30:37,680 --> 00:30:44,200 Speaker 11: on college campuses, protests on both sides pro Palestinian pro Israeli, 617 00:30:44,240 --> 00:30:49,080 Speaker 11: and the rise of anti Semitic incidents at college campuses. 618 00:30:49,280 --> 00:30:52,640 Speaker 11: And we had that congressional testimony just a few days 619 00:30:52,680 --> 00:30:57,320 Speaker 11: ago from the presidents of Harvard Mit the University of Pennsylvania, 620 00:30:58,160 --> 00:31:00,680 Speaker 11: where they were asked, you know, pretty direc dire to 621 00:31:00,800 --> 00:31:04,560 Speaker 11: say whether calling for the genocide of Jews on campus 622 00:31:04,680 --> 00:31:08,800 Speaker 11: violates school policy. And we saw these narrow legal answers 623 00:31:09,160 --> 00:31:14,200 Speaker 11: that were given by those university presidents that really has 624 00:31:14,840 --> 00:31:21,120 Speaker 11: sparked this ongoing backlash not just from students but from alumni. 625 00:31:21,640 --> 00:31:27,200 Speaker 11: Major donors. We saw a major rabbi who worked at 626 00:31:27,200 --> 00:31:32,040 Speaker 11: Harvard University resigning in protest. This controversy just is not 627 00:31:32,320 --> 00:31:35,960 Speaker 11: going away, and it could really have an impact on 628 00:31:36,560 --> 00:31:37,840 Speaker 11: university endowments. 629 00:31:38,200 --> 00:31:40,600 Speaker 3: Yeah, it's something that we've we've been tracking and been 630 00:31:40,600 --> 00:31:43,920 Speaker 3: paying attention to. As you mentioned, you saw the alumni 631 00:31:44,600 --> 00:31:47,960 Speaker 3: at Harvard University, among others, really kind of pushing back 632 00:31:48,000 --> 00:31:50,760 Speaker 3: on how the board and how leadership at the universities 633 00:31:50,800 --> 00:31:53,600 Speaker 3: are handling this. And it does seem like it's only 634 00:31:53,960 --> 00:31:57,240 Speaker 3: gotten worse in the wake of Harvard President's clouding Gays 635 00:31:57,280 --> 00:32:01,400 Speaker 3: that congressional testimony on December fifth, and kind of the 636 00:32:01,520 --> 00:32:05,480 Speaker 3: questions around how universities and a lot of the biggest 637 00:32:05,480 --> 00:32:08,760 Speaker 3: and most well known IVY League universities how they're handling 638 00:32:08,760 --> 00:32:09,560 Speaker 3: it and reacting to it. 639 00:32:10,080 --> 00:32:10,840 Speaker 7: Yeah. Absolutely. 640 00:32:10,880 --> 00:32:14,440 Speaker 11: I mean we've seen the university presidents you mentioned Claudiine 641 00:32:14,440 --> 00:32:18,280 Speaker 11: Gay and also Liz McGill from the University of Pennsylvania 642 00:32:18,360 --> 00:32:20,600 Speaker 11: sort of issuing statements. We had a video statement in 643 00:32:20,640 --> 00:32:25,320 Speaker 11: fact from the penn president trying to clarify those comments 644 00:32:25,320 --> 00:32:26,240 Speaker 11: and sort of walk them. 645 00:32:26,160 --> 00:32:26,960 Speaker 6: Back a little bit. 646 00:32:27,000 --> 00:32:30,760 Speaker 11: But this backlash isn't going away. So with that in mind, 647 00:32:30,880 --> 00:32:32,920 Speaker 11: we want to bring in our Bloomberg News higher education 648 00:32:33,040 --> 00:32:37,400 Speaker 11: reporter Janet Lauren, who has been following this very closely, 649 00:32:37,760 --> 00:32:41,400 Speaker 11: breaking a lot of news in the aftermath of these 650 00:32:41,480 --> 00:32:45,880 Speaker 11: ongoing protests and this backlash that we're seeing for these 651 00:32:45,960 --> 00:32:51,520 Speaker 11: university presidents. Janet is with us. Now, what's the latest. 652 00:32:51,720 --> 00:32:54,520 Speaker 11: Are these university presidents living on borrow time? 653 00:32:56,160 --> 00:33:00,080 Speaker 12: Well, it's not entirely clear. There's obviously a lot of 654 00:33:00,120 --> 00:33:03,560 Speaker 12: discussions going on right now their boards. They're trying to 655 00:33:03,640 --> 00:33:08,360 Speaker 12: figure out what to do next. The hearing was somewhat 656 00:33:08,360 --> 00:33:11,640 Speaker 12: of a disaster. I think that sort of universally understood. 657 00:33:12,480 --> 00:33:15,800 Speaker 12: Keep in mind that these schools are also under investigation 658 00:33:16,200 --> 00:33:19,880 Speaker 12: in several ways from the federal government. There are lat 659 00:33:19,960 --> 00:33:24,800 Speaker 12: that are Education Department is looking into their Title six complaints, 660 00:33:24,840 --> 00:33:30,680 Speaker 12: which is civil rights issues. So there's that investigation. We 661 00:33:30,800 --> 00:33:36,880 Speaker 12: also heard yesterday that the House Education Committee is also investigating. 662 00:33:37,920 --> 00:33:39,480 Speaker 12: So one thing you have to you do have to 663 00:33:39,520 --> 00:33:42,520 Speaker 12: remember about schools, even though they are private schools, they 664 00:33:42,520 --> 00:33:45,400 Speaker 12: get a lot of government money. You know, you're you're 665 00:33:45,440 --> 00:33:48,600 Speaker 12: looking at student loans, you're looking at grants like pel grants, 666 00:33:48,680 --> 00:33:53,520 Speaker 12: you're looking at tax deductions from donors. But Also, they 667 00:33:53,640 --> 00:33:58,000 Speaker 12: taken a tremendous amount of federal money for their scientific research, 668 00:33:58,400 --> 00:34:01,360 Speaker 12: so if that that's threatened, that could be quite a 669 00:34:01,360 --> 00:34:03,800 Speaker 12: big problem for them. In addition to all we've been 670 00:34:03,840 --> 00:34:06,520 Speaker 12: hearing about with donors calling back. You know, we had 671 00:34:06,560 --> 00:34:12,520 Speaker 12: a story earlier this week that everyone small donors, large donors, volunteers. 672 00:34:13,040 --> 00:34:16,400 Speaker 12: You know, so many people are quite upset about this, 673 00:34:16,480 --> 00:34:19,040 Speaker 12: and they're trying to step back from places like harverd 674 00:34:19,080 --> 00:34:22,480 Speaker 12: and Penn where they've had relationships for not just a 675 00:34:22,480 --> 00:34:25,320 Speaker 12: few years, but we're talking decades, you know, fifty years. 676 00:34:25,920 --> 00:34:29,080 Speaker 12: We had a story about a pen donor who is 677 00:34:29,160 --> 00:34:32,719 Speaker 12: clawing back, using an interesting strategy to claw back a 678 00:34:32,800 --> 00:34:35,759 Speaker 12: donation of one hundred million dollars based on a morality 679 00:34:35,800 --> 00:34:38,480 Speaker 12: clause that he had included, and you know, in a 680 00:34:38,560 --> 00:34:40,840 Speaker 12: letter to his staff he said, I never thought I 681 00:34:40,840 --> 00:34:44,000 Speaker 12: would ever have to use this, but was so horrified 682 00:34:44,080 --> 00:34:50,360 Speaker 12: by how the presidents responded in the hearing that you know, 683 00:34:50,400 --> 00:34:53,319 Speaker 12: people are still quite stunned. You know, these are if 684 00:34:53,360 --> 00:34:56,319 Speaker 12: this was a public company and you had a CEO testifying, 685 00:34:56,680 --> 00:34:58,759 Speaker 12: you know, you would have our real immediate reaction in 686 00:34:59,200 --> 00:35:03,000 Speaker 12: a decline in STUF prices. But as these are you know, 687 00:35:03,040 --> 00:35:05,480 Speaker 12: private universities don't have that same kind of metric. 688 00:35:06,520 --> 00:35:10,040 Speaker 3: And Jennet, what what happens next in terms of how 689 00:35:10,040 --> 00:35:12,920 Speaker 3: the university has handled this, what actually happens with some 690 00:35:13,000 --> 00:35:14,000 Speaker 3: of the leadership members. 691 00:35:15,280 --> 00:35:18,480 Speaker 12: Well, these are discussions that are happening now about the 692 00:35:18,520 --> 00:35:21,920 Speaker 12: president's about the board members. You know, there's been a 693 00:35:21,960 --> 00:35:25,799 Speaker 12: push for the board chair at Penn, Scott Bock, to 694 00:35:25,840 --> 00:35:28,640 Speaker 12: step down in addition to the president. So these are 695 00:35:28,719 --> 00:35:31,440 Speaker 12: discussions that are you know, that are happening now. The 696 00:35:31,520 --> 00:35:35,560 Speaker 12: schools are looking to also limit liability. But I think 697 00:35:35,600 --> 00:35:39,239 Speaker 12: the overall issue that people still have is why is 698 00:35:39,280 --> 00:35:44,800 Speaker 12: this pervasive anti semitic? Why is there a pervisive anti 699 00:35:44,840 --> 00:35:49,080 Speaker 12: Semitic nature on on these campuses? Why is this still allowed? 700 00:35:50,000 --> 00:35:52,840 Speaker 12: Why is you know, why are there still people allowed 701 00:35:52,880 --> 00:35:56,959 Speaker 12: to scream the word atafada and have signs up? And 702 00:35:57,000 --> 00:36:00,760 Speaker 12: it's it's it's an environment where Jewish students find threatening. 703 00:36:01,040 --> 00:36:05,040 Speaker 12: And I think that the response from the hearing is 704 00:36:06,080 --> 00:36:09,560 Speaker 12: that's still not really being addressed, and it. 705 00:36:09,920 --> 00:36:13,480 Speaker 11: Points to the difficulty as well when we see you know, 706 00:36:13,520 --> 00:36:17,040 Speaker 11: the top rabbi and the advisory board of Harvard University 707 00:36:17,440 --> 00:36:21,239 Speaker 11: feeling that he has to resign after the comments that 708 00:36:21,280 --> 00:36:24,560 Speaker 11: we heard from Claudine Gey, the Harvard president. I guess 709 00:36:24,560 --> 00:36:29,000 Speaker 11: it speaks to the difficulty that comes to, you know, 710 00:36:29,160 --> 00:36:33,239 Speaker 11: trying to change minds on university campuses when you know 711 00:36:33,600 --> 00:36:38,520 Speaker 11: a lot of students have, you know, pretty strong views 712 00:36:38,880 --> 00:36:43,880 Speaker 11: on these issues, such a complicated issue with Middle East relations. 713 00:36:44,680 --> 00:36:47,640 Speaker 12: Well, but it's not just the students, it's also the faculty. 714 00:36:48,040 --> 00:36:49,200 Speaker 7: Yeah, right, I think exactly. 715 00:36:49,320 --> 00:36:52,160 Speaker 12: It's the concern. It's the students and the faculty. And 716 00:36:52,600 --> 00:36:56,880 Speaker 12: in this pervasive atmosphere continues, and there is sort of 717 00:36:57,400 --> 00:37:01,120 Speaker 12: a double standard that people have mentioned if you were 718 00:37:01,160 --> 00:37:04,960 Speaker 12: hearing these types of words for other ethnic groups or 719 00:37:05,920 --> 00:37:09,960 Speaker 12: you know, trans community would not be tolerated. And uh, 720 00:37:10,040 --> 00:37:14,600 Speaker 12: you know, and the criticism is coming from all all camps. 721 00:37:14,920 --> 00:37:20,760 Speaker 12: You know, you heard the Democratic too, congressmen who represent Massachusetts, 722 00:37:21,840 --> 00:37:26,799 Speaker 12: both Harvard alone, both Democrats, both military veterans, saying they 723 00:37:26,840 --> 00:37:30,480 Speaker 12: were extremely disappointed in their alma mater. So it's it's 724 00:37:30,520 --> 00:37:34,680 Speaker 12: really quite quite a widespread dissatisfaction. 725 00:37:35,520 --> 00:37:38,640 Speaker 3: And Jenny, in terms of universities, obviously we're talking Penn, Harvard, 726 00:37:38,719 --> 00:37:42,960 Speaker 3: MI t how wide spread geographically in terms of universities 727 00:37:42,960 --> 00:37:47,920 Speaker 3: and colleges are these issues in these conversations, Well, I think. 728 00:37:47,840 --> 00:37:52,480 Speaker 12: You're hearing them the loudest, certainly at these campuses on 729 00:37:52,520 --> 00:37:57,120 Speaker 12: the East Coast, certainly Stanford as well. Uh, you know, 730 00:37:57,160 --> 00:38:01,200 Speaker 12: you're you're not hearing as much as at other places. 731 00:38:01,239 --> 00:38:03,080 Speaker 12: And it's a good question. You know, perhaps you've had 732 00:38:03,320 --> 00:38:07,480 Speaker 12: issues at the City University of New York system, but 733 00:38:07,800 --> 00:38:10,520 Speaker 12: it's you know, perhaps if you're a smaller liberal arts 734 00:38:10,560 --> 00:38:14,520 Speaker 12: college not near a big city, you know, it just 735 00:38:15,000 --> 00:38:18,400 Speaker 12: it just may not be as pervasive because your critical 736 00:38:18,440 --> 00:38:23,239 Speaker 12: population is much smaller. But you know, several people have 737 00:38:23,320 --> 00:38:26,840 Speaker 12: made the point, and the rabbi did as well. You know, 738 00:38:27,080 --> 00:38:31,560 Speaker 12: most kids on college campuses today do not feel this intensely. 739 00:38:31,760 --> 00:38:33,280 Speaker 9: They're just there to get an education. 740 00:38:33,960 --> 00:38:36,000 Speaker 12: And you know, when you see the videos of the 741 00:38:36,040 --> 00:38:40,600 Speaker 12: classes being disrupted with bullhorns and the uneasysiness of the students, 742 00:38:41,160 --> 00:38:45,000 Speaker 12: you know, they're paying eighty thousand dollars or they're borrowing money, 743 00:38:45,160 --> 00:38:48,439 Speaker 12: or the school is giving financial aid. They want to 744 00:38:48,440 --> 00:38:51,239 Speaker 12: do their work, they want to finish their finals, and 745 00:38:51,600 --> 00:38:54,920 Speaker 12: there's a tremendous amount of disruption. And you know, the 746 00:38:55,360 --> 00:38:57,920 Speaker 12: lawsuit that was filed by some Penn students. You know, 747 00:38:58,040 --> 00:39:00,480 Speaker 12: this is the amount of tuition that families are paying, 748 00:39:01,120 --> 00:39:04,359 Speaker 12: and they're just they're not there to protest, They're there 749 00:39:04,719 --> 00:39:06,520 Speaker 12: to get an education and learn. 750 00:39:06,719 --> 00:39:08,640 Speaker 3: We've got to leave it there. Janet Lauren, thank you 751 00:39:08,640 --> 00:39:11,400 Speaker 3: so much, Bloomberg News Higher Education Report talking about all 752 00:39:11,440 --> 00:39:14,759 Speaker 3: the backlash around anti semitism on college campuses. 753 00:39:15,000 --> 00:39:18,120 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can 754 00:39:18,120 --> 00:39:21,920 Speaker 1: subscribe and listen to interviews on Apple Podcasts or whatever 755 00:39:22,000 --> 00:39:25,720 Speaker 1: podcast platform you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm on Twitter 756 00:39:25,920 --> 00:39:27,839 Speaker 1: at Matt Miller nineteen seventy three. 757 00:39:28,280 --> 00:39:30,680 Speaker 2: And I'm fall Sweeney. I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney. 758 00:39:30,800 --> 00:39:33,480 Speaker 2: Before the podcast, you can always catch us worldwide at 759 00:39:33,480 --> 00:39:35,239 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Radio