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Speaker 1: What's going on everybody. Scott Bogman here for Betting Pros

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Speaker 1: to tell you my favorite picks for Week two of

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Speaker 1: the college football season. I'd like to remind you guys,

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Speaker 1: if you want to follow along on my bets, love

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Speaker 1: me or fade me, or it wasn't great Week zero,

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Speaker 1: it was pretty good Week one, But either way, go

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Speaker 1: to Bettingpros dot com slash Bogman or follow me on

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Speaker 1: the Betting Pros app where you can see all of

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Speaker 1: my picks there. We're going to start out with four

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Speaker 1: games that I have already picked on shows. I've got

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Speaker 1: one extra spread for you, two totals, and three player

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Speaker 1: props to give you. I'm going to start with the

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Speaker 1: ones that I've already kind of gone over. First. I'm

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Speaker 1: laying the points for Utah minus fourteen and a half

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Speaker 1: versus Baylor. This line is kicked around a little bit.

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Speaker 1: I know the BP system didn't show a ton of

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Speaker 1: value towards the Utah side, but what I really like

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Speaker 1: here is I think Utah has a strong defense. The

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Speaker 1: offense looked great with Cam Rising and number one target

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Speaker 1: brand Keithy back at tight end. They had three touchdowns

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Speaker 1: last week. Desjaun Stanley looked great. One hundred and eighty

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Speaker 1: four yard on nine touches and two scores. He was outstanding.

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Speaker 1: Baylor look good too. They have a lot of returning experience,

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Speaker 1: but there are some big pieces from the transfer portal

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Speaker 1: for them, and that is why I don't like Baylor

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Speaker 1: in this game. You're traveling to Utah, one of the

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Speaker 1: dominant teams in the Big twelve, a team that could

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Speaker 1: make the playoff, right, and Baylor is a good squad.

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Speaker 1: I think they're on the precipice of being really good

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Speaker 1: in the Big twelve, So this would be a nice

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Speaker 1: game to at least announce your presence. But it's week two,

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Speaker 1: you have a new quarterback transferring on the road. I

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Speaker 1: just think it's going to be a tall task for

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Speaker 1: Baylor to meet Utah in this game. So I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: lay the points and I'm gonna take the utes, and

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Speaker 1: I'm not gonna look back. Baylor's a good squad, but

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Speaker 1: I think Utah wins this game going away. Let's go

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Speaker 1: to Bama minus three eight and a half versus USF. Look,

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Speaker 1: I got burned on this game last year, and I'm

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Speaker 1: going back to the well here on the Alabama side.

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Speaker 1: But these are different teams, and this is why I

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Speaker 1: don't really like trends too much. I will follow them,

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Speaker 1: look at them, but it's a different team. Kalin de

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Speaker 1: Borr is a different coach than Nick Saben, and he's

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Speaker 1: trying to prove that they were dominant. Last week. USF

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Speaker 1: was good against Bethune Cookman too. I don't want to

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Speaker 1: take anything away from them. I think they are a

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Speaker 1: good team, probably even better than the team that they

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Speaker 1: were last year, right, but they were in a weird

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Speaker 1: spot Bama was last year. They were coming off that

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Speaker 1: Texas loss. I think there was a lot of weather

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Speaker 1: and rain delays and crazy stuff going on. Milro got bench.

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Speaker 1: She looked terrible. So I think with this squad right now,

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Speaker 1: clicking on all cylinders like they did in Week one,

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Speaker 1: they're at home. I think this is a massive stomping

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Speaker 1: by Alabama. Maybe I'm not giving enough credit to USF again,

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Speaker 1: but I'm more than willing to go out on the

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Speaker 1: limb and take Bama in this game. I really like

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Speaker 1: that one. I think my favorite one of the week

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Speaker 1: is probably Oregon minus eighteen and a half or Spoise State.

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Speaker 1: But listen, you know, wait until right before kickoff. This

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Speaker 1: line has been dipping towards the Boise State side. The

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Speaker 1: entire week could open up a twenty one and a half.

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Speaker 1: Now it's down at eighteen and a half. So look,

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Speaker 1: Oregon had that bad start. I understand that is this

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Speaker 1: is a public perception thing. Boise State went out and

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Speaker 1: beat the tar out of Georgia souther thand they're really

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Speaker 1: beat him by that much. But they scored a ton

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Speaker 1: of points. Jant had six touchdowns, two hundred and seventeen

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Speaker 1: rushing yards. This offense looked great. They returned a lot

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Speaker 1: of pieces for Boise State as well, specifically on the

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Speaker 1: defensive side. But they weren't very good on defense. Last

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Speaker 1: year they ranked post one hundred in PFF grade and

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Speaker 1: tackling run defense. You know, I think pass coverage or

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Speaker 1: coverage was the only thing they weren't post one hundred

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Speaker 1: in and they were ninety first. So this is not

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Speaker 1: a great team. Oregon didn't look good. They only put

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Speaker 1: up twenty four points. I understand that it had eight penalties,

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Speaker 1: two failed fourth down conversions. Dylan Gabriel took three sacks,

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Speaker 1: but they still had forty minutes of possession almost thirty

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Speaker 1: nine to sixteen, four hund eighty seven yards of total offense,

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Speaker 1: and they held Idaho to two hundred and seventeen total yards. Look,

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Speaker 1: I think we're making too much of Week one in

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Speaker 1: this game, right. I think Oregon is still a national

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Speaker 1: title contender. I think they're a Big Ten contender as well.

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Speaker 1: I think they're one of the best teams in the country.

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Speaker 1: I think Boise State they are a dangerous team. They're

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Speaker 1: a very very good Mountain West team, but I don't

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Speaker 1: think they are in Oregon's level here. This is a

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Speaker 1: road game for them as well. At Oregon. I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: take the Ducks and lay the points and tell you

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Speaker 1: my next number at the best number. It's Iowa minus

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Speaker 1: two and a half against Iowa State, and both these

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Speaker 1: teams looked good last week. I was sweating that under

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Speaker 1: for Iowa. Right, it was forty and a half. The

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Speaker 1: final score was forty to zip, so we got it.

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Speaker 1: But Iowa's offense looks so good that I don't know

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Speaker 1: about this under this week. I still do like the under,

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Speaker 1: and I would lean towards it, but I don't really

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Speaker 1: want to bet it after what I saw from Iowa

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Speaker 1: last week. I think really the difference here because Iowa

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Speaker 1: State had a great game against North Dakota. Right. They

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Speaker 1: did give up some rushing yards in that game, though,

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Speaker 1: So I think the main difference in this game is

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Speaker 1: going to be that, you know, Iowa State look good

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Speaker 1: against North Dakota on offense last week, You're not gonna

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Speaker 1: look good against Iowa. Right. Iowa was a top ten

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Speaker 1: defense in the country. Still, they run everything through that defense.

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Speaker 1: They win games from it. This game is a game

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Speaker 1: they're gonna win from that defense, and I'm not trusting

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Speaker 1: Iowa's offense enough to get to that over, which is

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Speaker 1: why I don't like a lean on the total. But

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Speaker 1: I do think that this you know, you hit a

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Speaker 1: walk off field goal in this game in a tie

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Speaker 1: game or a low scoring game, and two and a

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Speaker 1: half is just I think that number is too low.

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Speaker 1: On the Iowa side, I think they're the more complete team,

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Speaker 1: especially looking good on offense. You know. Look like I said,

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Speaker 1: I'm not going to sit here and make a case

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Speaker 1: for Iowa to be a national title contender because their

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Speaker 1: offense was good in Week one. But it's always better

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Speaker 1: to look good than bad. So they look good week one.

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Speaker 1: I'm going to trust them rolling at home here against

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Speaker 1: Iowa State and take Iowa. One that I have not

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Speaker 1: mentioned yet on any shows is San Jose State. The

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Speaker 1: number has slipped down to plus three and a half

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Speaker 1: at air Force. It was plus six and a half earlier.

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Speaker 1: I don't mind a straight up bet on San Jose State.

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Speaker 1: And the main difference in this game to me is that,

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Speaker 1: you know, these teams are in roster strength, are pretty close.

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Speaker 1: But San Jose State look good. Air Force looked terrible

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Speaker 1: in Week one, and again maybe week one is an

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Speaker 1: avarition and we're making too much of it. But Air

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Speaker 1: Forces replacing so many stars. They have one turning starter

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Speaker 1: on offense right, I think they have three or four

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Speaker 1: on defense. It's a very low amount, and they didn't

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Speaker 1: put up They beat Merrimack, but Merrimack is like a

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Speaker 1: close to one hundred ranked FCS school. They're not very good,

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Speaker 1: so to beat them and not look good doing it

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Speaker 1: gives me, you know, a little bit of a queasy feeling.

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Speaker 1: San Jose State beat a top ten FCS squad in

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Speaker 1: Sacramento State. They gave up some rushing yards, which is

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Speaker 1: not a great look with a triple option team and

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Speaker 1: Air Force coming in. But new head coach Kennya Montalolo

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Speaker 1: from San Jose State used to run the triple option

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Speaker 1: and Navy when he coached there forever. Now they have

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Speaker 1: new OC Creig Saltzman coming in, They're going air raid

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Speaker 1: on offense. So I think the Matlolo is going to

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Speaker 1: work with the defense, tell them what to expect, and

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Speaker 1: Air Force is down there starting fullback, and if you

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Speaker 1: know anything about a triple option, the fullback is a

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Speaker 1: very big piece of that. So with these teams being

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Speaker 1: equal in talent, This is a road game for San

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Speaker 1: Jose State. They're going to Colorado to play air Force,

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Speaker 1: but with them looking good, air Force looking terrible. Kenny Montalolo,

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Speaker 1: knowing a little bit about this triple option and how

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Speaker 1: to stop it, I'm going to side with San Jose State.

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Speaker 1: The public has pushed this all the way down three

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Speaker 1: points already, so if you want to get it, you

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Speaker 1: should probably get it rather quickly. Two totals here for you,

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Speaker 1: both overs. Life's too short to bet the under unless

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Speaker 1: you really like it. Of course, I got two hundreds

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Speaker 1: last week, but I got two overs this week. Notre

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Speaker 1: Dame hosting in Illinois. The total here is forty four

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Speaker 1: and a half, and I think there are multiple routes

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Speaker 1: to this over right. Traditionally, Notre Dame has been bad

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Speaker 1: in let down spots, especially early in the season, over

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Speaker 1: the last like ten or fifteen years. I know the

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Speaker 1: Notre Dame faithful are really nervous about this game in

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Speaker 1: terms of covering. So let's not touch the side. Let's

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Speaker 1: just go over, because I think you're going to see

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Speaker 1: one of two things. You're either going to see Notre

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Speaker 1: Dame in that traditional letdown spot let and IU score

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Speaker 1: and Northern Illinois put up seven hundred yards of offense

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Speaker 1: last week, albeit against a smaller FCS school. Once again,

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Speaker 1: you know West Illinois, they're a post one hundred team.

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Speaker 1: So seven hundred yards of offense looked impressive, but you

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Speaker 1: have to have context, and the context is they weren't

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Speaker 1: playing anyone very good, but their offense look good. Again.

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Speaker 1: It's always better to look good than bad in week one,

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Speaker 1: so they are clicking on offense after week one. Notre

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Speaker 1: Dame wasn't, but they were on the road to Kyle Field,

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Speaker 1: right with a brand new offensive line. That was the

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Speaker 1: big talking point was Notre Dame's offensive line only has

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Speaker 1: six starts coming into Kyle Field, right, So that was

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Speaker 1: the big talking point. Notre Dame's going to beat them

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Speaker 1: at the attack point. Nothing could have been further from

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Speaker 1: the truth. Notre Dame dominated the offensive line of Texas

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Speaker 1: A and M in that game, and now they're at home.

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Speaker 1: They're not going to have eleven penalties like they did

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Speaker 1: at Kyle Field. They failed on a fourth down, their

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Speaker 1: third down efficiency was terrible, and they still won against

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Speaker 1: an M, a highly rated team on the road with

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Speaker 1: what is widely considered the best home field advantage in

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Speaker 1: the country at Kyle Field, So I think Notre Dame

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Speaker 1: at home, You're either gonna get them rolling and looking

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Speaker 1: dominant without those penalties and mistakes that they had at

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Speaker 1: Kyle Field, or they're gonna be in a letdown spot

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Speaker 1: and in Illinois offense is clicking. So let's go. I mean,

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Speaker 1: I think there's multiple routes to this over It's only

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Speaker 1: forty four and a half. That's a thirty five to

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Speaker 1: ten game wins that for you, So I think that

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Speaker 1: could possibly be the final score. Let's go to Eastern

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Speaker 1: Michigan at Washington. I'm taken over forty eight and a

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Speaker 1: half here and EMU Eastern Michigan they went into UMAs

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Speaker 1: as a dog last week and they won by fourteen.

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Speaker 1: They didn't have an absurd amount of yards three hundred

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Speaker 1: and seventy five, but that was only in twenty four

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Speaker 1: minutes of possession. So another team that has started out

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Speaker 1: looking good on offense. Chris Creighton, their head coach, is

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Speaker 1: a cover machine. I really do like him. They beat

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Speaker 1: some P four and five teams straight up in the past,

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Speaker 1: but I think this one is a little bit too lopsided.

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Speaker 1: Washington obviously, isn't that same national title contender that they

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Speaker 1: were last season. I feel the best way to look

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Speaker 1: at them is like a pretty good Big ten team, right,

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Speaker 1: not a national title contender, but still pretty good. They're

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Speaker 1: still working some things out, but again, this is another

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Speaker 1: team that played a very strong Weber State FCS squad.

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Speaker 1: They are just outside the top twenty five rankings. They

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Speaker 1: got a couple votes for the FCS in the top

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Speaker 1: twenty five, so they're a good test early for a

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Speaker 1: brand new team, right. But they put a four hundred

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Speaker 1: and eighty two yards total offense in that game. There's

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Speaker 1: been a lot of coaches kicking here, but Will Rogers,

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Speaker 1: the incumbent from Mississippi State, the transfer Jonah Coleman coming

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Speaker 1: in as well. They set the pace on offense defense

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Speaker 1: at six transfer starters and held Weber State under one

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Speaker 1: hundred yards passing. They did allow one hundred and fifty

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Speaker 1: five rushing yards, so that is something they need to

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Speaker 1: get cleaned up a little bit. But forty eight and

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Speaker 1: a half being the total here, I think Washington does

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Speaker 1: the heavy lifting. I think they probably score forty to

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Speaker 1: thirty five points and then we're not asking for too

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Speaker 1: much from EMU after that, so I think Washington does

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Speaker 1: most of the work to get us to the over here.

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Speaker 1: I have three player props. I was only one for

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Speaker 1: three last week on these, so I'll give you a

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Speaker 1: couple options in terms of yards on these, but I'll

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Speaker 1: tell you the players that I like and you can decide,

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Speaker 1: you know, if you want a tail, you want to fade,

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Speaker 1: however you want to do it. But the first one

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Speaker 1: is Eli Holstein, the quarterback from Pitt and his over

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Speaker 1: in passing yards. I'll tell you that the prize picks

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Speaker 1: is to sixty one and a half, so that's kind

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Speaker 1: of where they right around the line where they expect

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Speaker 1: him at. But I just think we're gonna keep seeing

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Speaker 1: Pitt throw the ball a ton, especially against a bad

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Speaker 1: Cincinnati team. This is a high lined over game as well.

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Speaker 1: Sixty two and a half is a total since he's

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Speaker 1: at home. But Eli Holston thirty of forty for three

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Speaker 1: thirty six, three touchdowns and a pick against Toston last week,

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Speaker 1: and they passed the ball. Kayden uock Bell passes a ball.

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Speaker 1: At Western Carolina last year, they average thirty six pass

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Speaker 1: attempts per game, so tons of passing for Pitt is

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Speaker 1: what the expectation should be, especially if they are allowing

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Speaker 1: Cincinnati to score. This game could go point for point,

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Speaker 1: be a nice little shootout. So the DK odds here

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Speaker 1: two point fifty plus is minus one fifty five two

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Speaker 1: sixty two. Remember that's the line that Price Picks is

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Speaker 1: offering us is minus one fifteen, so a little bit

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Speaker 1: worse than even, but you're getting plus at anything. Two

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Speaker 1: to seventy five or more so. Two seventy five is

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Speaker 1: one twenty three, hundred is two thirty three, twenty five

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Speaker 1: is four fifty, So whatever amount of risk you would like,

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Speaker 1: I think there's some good numbers in there. On the

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Speaker 1: Eli Holston, the quarterback from Pitt's side. Here, we're gonna

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Speaker 1: go with another quarterback for bet number two, Baron Morton,

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Speaker 1: the Texas Tech quarterback passing yards. Texas Tech defense gave

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Speaker 1: up five hundred passing yards to Abilene Christian last week,

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Speaker 1: a middling fcsteam and Washington State is a their raid

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Speaker 1: team high passing volume. They had over four hundred yards

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Speaker 1: passing on only seventeen completions against Portland State last week.

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Speaker 1: So I think with both these offenses being ahead of

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Speaker 1: the defenses in this game, you're gonna see another shootout.

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Speaker 1: Washington State last season ninetieth and pass yards allowed seventy

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Speaker 1: six in PFF coverage grade, and their back seven roster

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Speaker 1: strength is one hundred and first. For Texas Tech, they

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Speaker 1: were seventy fourth in passing yards allowed fiftieth in PFF

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Speaker 1: coverage grade. But right now their back seven is ninety

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Speaker 1: fourth in roster strengths. So two back sevens, linebackers and

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Speaker 1: defensive backs kind of you know, hovering right around one hundred.

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Speaker 1: The line for on Price picks for Baron Morton was

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Speaker 1: two fifty and a half. And the plus odds here

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Speaker 1: that you can get on DK two to seventy five

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Speaker 1: or more yards is plus one twenty five, three hundred

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Speaker 1: and more is plus two forty, and three twenty five

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Speaker 1: is plus four to fifty. So again, you know, I

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Speaker 1: won't tell you guys where to risk or I'm probably

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Speaker 1: gonna take underdog prize picks those and I will probably go.

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Speaker 1: I might ladder Eli Holstein, and I might pick just

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Speaker 1: the most for Baron Morton at three twenty five. The

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Speaker 1: last one is a wide receiver, and we saw Zach

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Speaker 1: ryat Branch in primetime for USC last week, and it's

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Speaker 1: the receiving yards. This guy's electric with the ball in

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Speaker 1: his hands. He almost broke a kick return. Tosh Washington

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Speaker 1: and Brandon Rice are gone off of this roster, so

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Speaker 1: he is the new number one, and his line right

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Speaker 1: now is sixty six and a half or sixty five

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Speaker 1: and a half. I believe at prize picks, and there's

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Speaker 1: a lot of options here. At sixty six plus, it's

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Speaker 1: minus one. Twenty seventy is even eighty plus is plus

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Speaker 1: one fifty five, ninety or more yards is plus two

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Speaker 1: thirty one hundred more yards is plus three thirty one,

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Speaker 1: ten is plus four seventy five and one twenty is

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Speaker 1: plus six fifty for Zach ryat Branch. So those are

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Speaker 1: my pick for the week. I hope you guys tail

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Speaker 1: them and we get some big dubs and you know,

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Speaker 1: get some wins. Like I said, go ahead and follow

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Speaker 1: me at Bettingpros dot com slash Bogman to see my pics.

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Speaker 1: Whether you want to ride me or fade me, I

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Speaker 1: understand either way. But that is it for me and

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Speaker 1: I'll see you guys next week. Good luck everybody.

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Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you

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