WEBVTT - Bloomberg Surveillance TV: June 1st, 2026 0:00:02.400 --> 0:00:06.760 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 0:00:11.760 --> 0:00:15.560 This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along 0:00:15.600 --> 0:00:18.800 with Lisa Bromwitz and Amrie Hordernt. Join us each day 0:00:18.840 --> 0:00:22.400 for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics 0:00:22.520 --> 0:00:24.959 from our global headquarters in New York City. We are 0:00:25.040 --> 0:00:27.760 live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from six to nine 0:00:27.840 --> 0:00:31.400 am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or 0:00:31.440 --> 0:00:34.040 anywhere else you listen, and as always on the Bloomberg 0:00:34.120 --> 0:00:37.720 Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app. The nvidio barss gents 0:00:37.760 --> 0:00:40.960 of one saying concerns around AI's impact on the workforce 0:00:41.040 --> 0:00:44.199 are over blown. Towson's lack of Apollo agrees, writing there 0:00:44.280 --> 0:00:47.800 is zero evidence of job losses because of AI. Non 0:00:47.840 --> 0:00:51.000 farm pay rods for May could come in significantly higher 0:00:51.000 --> 0:00:54.760 than the around ninety k expected. Torston joins us for more. Torston, 0:00:54.760 --> 0:00:56.960 good morning, good to see you. What are people getting wrong? 0:00:57.600 --> 0:00:59.320 Well, I think what people are getting wrong is this 0:00:59.520 --> 0:01:02.520 whole new that it's not only about individual companies. 0:01:02.560 --> 0:01:04.640 It's what's happening at the macro level. And at the 0:01:04.680 --> 0:01:05.440 macro level. 0:01:05.280 --> 0:01:08.000 It's become much easier to open a business. You see 0:01:08.000 --> 0:01:10.560 this in the surveys from the Census of how many 0:01:10.560 --> 0:01:13.520 businesses are created every week is exploding higher. You're also 0:01:13.520 --> 0:01:16.039 seeing data from Stripe showing you the number of solo 0:01:16.160 --> 0:01:17.920 founders of new businesses is. 0:01:17.880 --> 0:01:20.199 Also exploding higher. So there's a lot of new businesses 0:01:20.240 --> 0:01:20.840 that are created. 0:01:21.080 --> 0:01:23.840 Yes, some of them will probably only be one employer, 0:01:23.920 --> 0:01:26.280 namely the founder, but a lot of these businesses will 0:01:26.280 --> 0:01:28.080 also with the result in a lot more jobs. So 0:01:28.160 --> 0:01:31.199 it's not only about the displacement that there might come 0:01:31.400 --> 0:01:34.240 on some micro levels. It's much more about the aggregate 0:01:34.360 --> 0:01:36.400 where we have a significant increase in the number of 0:01:36.400 --> 0:01:37.360 new businesses that are formed. 0:01:37.440 --> 0:01:39.039 It doesn't help, as you know that some of the 0:01:39.040 --> 0:01:42.080 individuals at the frontier of this massive persure talking about 0:01:42.080 --> 0:01:44.520 a white collar wash out when it comes to the 0:01:44.600 --> 0:01:46.280 lay before. So what's your message to them. 0:01:46.680 --> 0:01:49.760 Well, this has started actually already in the spring of 0:01:49.880 --> 0:01:51.800 last year, where there was a lot of people beginning 0:01:51.840 --> 0:01:53.840 to talk about well, within one year's time, we will 0:01:53.840 --> 0:01:56.400 already have layoffs and we'll have entry level jobs that 0:01:56.400 --> 0:01:58.919 may no longer exist. But here we are with ADP 0:01:59.160 --> 0:02:01.840 on a weekly basis. The last eight weeks, producing thirty 0:02:01.840 --> 0:02:04.600 forty thousand jobs every week. Jobs claim still being low 0:02:04.880 --> 0:02:06.680 ism today, over the last six. 0:02:06.480 --> 0:02:07.640 Months, ism has gone up. 0:02:07.760 --> 0:02:09.800 We have about fifty Ism is likely going to be 0:02:09.880 --> 0:02:12.080 also high today. And now we have some very strong 0:02:12.120 --> 0:02:14.200 tail when's not only from the AI spending boom, but 0:02:14.240 --> 0:02:15.960 also from the one big build of a bill. This 0:02:16.080 --> 0:02:18.560 economy really is on fire in the sense that we 0:02:18.639 --> 0:02:21.600 both have strong growth, and we also have upward pressures 0:02:21.600 --> 0:02:23.840 on inflation. And now we also have, of course the 0:02:23.960 --> 0:02:27.120 ultimate risk that if AI does result in more job growth, 0:02:27.280 --> 0:02:29.799 it will be really the miracle drug that both creates 0:02:29.880 --> 0:02:32.520 higher productivity and also creates higher job growth. 0:02:32.720 --> 0:02:35.200 That can be true at the same time that John's 0:02:35.200 --> 0:02:37.800 assertion can be true, which is that white collar jobs 0:02:37.840 --> 0:02:39.720 can decline as proportion of overall jobs. 0:02:39.720 --> 0:02:40.280 If you look at the. 0:02:40.320 --> 0:02:43.200 Job growth and where it's come from, it's construction, it's manufacturing, 0:02:43.560 --> 0:02:46.520 it's in healthcare, it's an education, it's not in finance, 0:02:46.520 --> 0:02:49.120 it's not in media and media services. So how do 0:02:49.160 --> 0:02:50.680 you square those two ideas well? 0:02:50.720 --> 0:02:52.360 If you look at also the unmpliner rates, and now 0:02:52.400 --> 0:02:53.680 we'll get more data on Friday, if you look at 0:02:53.680 --> 0:02:54.800 the own ipliner rate for people. 0:02:54.600 --> 0:02:56.280 That are between twenty and twenty four years. 0:02:56.120 --> 0:02:59.160 Old that has exactly gone down in the last six months. 0:02:59.280 --> 0:03:01.160 Also telling you that is not the case that young 0:03:01.160 --> 0:03:03.440 people can't find a job. There's some issues around what 0:03:03.560 --> 0:03:05.640 type of job they can get, and yes, maybe they 0:03:05.680 --> 0:03:07.200 may not be getting an issue to the job that 0:03:07.240 --> 0:03:09.840 they wanted. There may be something else about expectations for 0:03:09.880 --> 0:03:11.880 young people when it goes into that discussion. But the 0:03:11.880 --> 0:03:13.560 bottom line Stel really here is that at the end 0:03:13.560 --> 0:03:15.960 of the day, young people are actually doing really well 0:03:16.040 --> 0:03:19.280 because don't toorner rate for young people is actually lower than. 0:03:19.200 --> 0:03:20.120 Where it was six months ago. 0:03:20.200 --> 0:03:22.720 Okay, to build on that, the conversation yesterday among some 0:03:22.760 --> 0:03:24.680 of the people who might be entering the workforce in 0:03:24.720 --> 0:03:27.560 a not so distant future plumbing a discussion around becoming 0:03:27.560 --> 0:03:28.799 a plumber because you're going to make a lot of 0:03:28.840 --> 0:03:30.480 money and plumbing, but you're not necessarily going to make 0:03:30.480 --> 0:03:32.600 a lot of money going into white collar workforce. So 0:03:32.919 --> 0:03:34.720 at what point is that the type of work that 0:03:34.840 --> 0:03:36.600 is going to be the future of a lot of 0:03:36.600 --> 0:03:38.640 the job creation. Is that what we're seeing right now 0:03:38.720 --> 0:03:39.240 some of the data. 0:03:39.360 --> 0:03:41.440 Yeah, but I'm also critical of this whole idea that 0:03:41.440 --> 0:03:43.280 white collar workers are just going to say, oh I 0:03:43.320 --> 0:03:45.440 got fired. I'm just going home my basement and sitting 0:03:45.480 --> 0:03:48.120 and rolling my thumbs. Of course, those white collar workers 0:03:48.160 --> 0:03:50.440 are going to say, hey, maybe we should open a business. 0:03:50.600 --> 0:03:52.560 Maybe I have some friends, maybe I had some connections 0:03:52.600 --> 0:03:54.760 from my last job. And I think that that's exactly 0:03:54.760 --> 0:03:56.400 what's going to make it a lot easier with us 0:03:56.480 --> 0:03:59.000 language models, with agents to build a new model. And 0:03:59.000 --> 0:04:01.400 that's exactly why based information is going up. That's why 0:04:01.400 --> 0:04:03.640 the number of sol founders, solo founders as social been 0:04:03.640 --> 0:04:06.680 going up, and that business formation will ultimately also result 0:04:06.760 --> 0:04:07.800 in a lot more job growth. 0:04:07.960 --> 0:04:10.320 We touch on something you said about expect that might 0:04:10.360 --> 0:04:13.600 be about expectations of those entering the workforce. Are you 0:04:13.680 --> 0:04:16.479 saying that potentially younger generations, if they don't like some 0:04:16.560 --> 0:04:18.840 of the characterists of a job, they are going to 0:04:18.839 --> 0:04:21.200 not go into the workforce, potentially maybe start their own 0:04:21.200 --> 0:04:22.279 business or do something else. 0:04:22.440 --> 0:04:25.640 Well, there is certainly a lot of course discussion around 0:04:25.720 --> 0:04:28.320 well is it because young people can't find a job. 0:04:28.360 --> 0:04:29.359 They can certainly find. 0:04:29.200 --> 0:04:31.440 A job, but then why are we're having this discussion. 0:04:31.480 --> 0:04:33.480 Maybe exactly to your point, and Marie, maybe we are 0:04:33.560 --> 0:04:36.120 actually hearing more young people just not having met the 0:04:36.240 --> 0:04:38.640 expectations of where they could get a job. In other words, 0:04:38.640 --> 0:04:40.479 maybe they didn't get the job that they thought that 0:04:40.520 --> 0:04:42.800 they could get. So yes, maybe there is something also 0:04:42.800 --> 0:04:45.560 when it comes to the expectations of younger households and 0:04:45.600 --> 0:04:47.479 younger people when they enter the label folks. 0:04:47.160 --> 0:04:49.440 Well, you're describing me. Sounds like entitlement. But we'll leave 0:04:49.440 --> 0:04:51.400 it there. I want to answer you another question. Do 0:04:51.480 --> 0:04:53.800 you think the Federal Reserve has been quote undergoing a 0:04:53.839 --> 0:04:54.520 stress test? 0:04:55.400 --> 0:04:57.760 Well, I saw Jay Powell off God yesterday. 0:04:58.240 --> 0:04:59.960 He did say and the last press company was going 0:05:00.120 --> 0:05:02.680 to keep a low profile. But this obviously is generating 0:05:02.760 --> 0:05:04.280 some attention here today. 0:05:04.600 --> 0:05:06.000 So I do think that it. 0:05:06.000 --> 0:05:08.880 Is clear that, of course we'll have new leadership. That 0:05:09.000 --> 0:05:11.800 leadership is in my view, absolutely going to be completely 0:05:11.800 --> 0:05:13.720 doing all the right things and moving in the right direction. 0:05:14.080 --> 0:05:15.360 But it is a little bit. 0:05:15.200 --> 0:05:18.440 Noteworthy that the outgoing chair here does bring up issues 0:05:18.520 --> 0:05:20.800 just in the not in the eleventh hour, but a 0:05:20.839 --> 0:05:24.800 few minutes after midnight exactly this discussion around well, okay, 0:05:25.000 --> 0:05:27.320 let's now give the new fitchair a chance and he 0:05:27.360 --> 0:05:29.400 can then run with it, at which he will do 0:05:29.480 --> 0:05:30.440 in a very good way. 0:05:30.279 --> 0:05:32.080 And Kevin wash the thing was hopeful that we'd see 0:05:32.080 --> 0:05:35.440 the disinflation re impact of this massive push towards this 0:05:35.560 --> 0:05:38.520 technology and then be able to have easier monetary policy. 0:05:38.560 --> 0:05:40.000 Where do you stand on that tourcet. 0:05:39.880 --> 0:05:41.640 Well, we probably have to wait a little while for that, 0:05:41.680 --> 0:05:44.599 because initially the AI boom will certainly be inflationary. 0:05:44.640 --> 0:05:45.520 It's very clear when you. 0:05:45.520 --> 0:05:48.000 Look at semiconductor prices, when you look at energy prices, 0:05:48.160 --> 0:05:50.400 we'll look at labor, meaning what is the price of 0:05:50.480 --> 0:05:53.440 constructing a data center, And it's also, of course when 0:05:53.440 --> 0:05:56.600 you look at the broader equipment prices, it is also 0:05:56.680 --> 0:05:58.440 very clear that this is going to be inflationary on 0:05:58.480 --> 0:06:00.800 top of the upward pressure on inflation coming from the 0:06:00.880 --> 0:06:02.320 lack effects of tariffs and. 0:06:02.240 --> 0:06:03.760 Of course also higher energy prices. 0:06:03.800 --> 0:06:06.719 So initially, in the initial phase of the buildout, we 0:06:06.800 --> 0:06:09.479 should actually expect the AI data center build out to 0:06:09.520 --> 0:06:11.640 be invasionary rather than this invasion. 0:06:11.240 --> 0:06:13.520 Can we finish on the price of AI. There were 0:06:13.640 --> 0:06:16.720 some CEOs, not all, but some CEOs excited about the 0:06:16.760 --> 0:06:20.239 prospects for a genter KI and replacing the human labor 0:06:20.240 --> 0:06:23.000 force with that. When they start to realize the actual 0:06:23.120 --> 0:06:26.200 cost of this, will they have second thoughts on replacement. 0:06:26.360 --> 0:06:29.000 Well, this is also a huge discussion around token demand 0:06:29.120 --> 0:06:31.120 and token usage, and at the end of the day, 0:06:31.160 --> 0:06:33.880 token users is not necessarily the same thing as creating 0:06:33.960 --> 0:06:36.800 higher productivity. So that's why businesses as we speak are 0:06:36.800 --> 0:06:39.680 exactly trying to figure out how much token demand do 0:06:39.760 --> 0:06:41.960 we have and do we ultimately need and will it 0:06:42.080 --> 0:06:44.320 pay off and with the price of that token demand 0:06:44.360 --> 0:06:46.400 also be worth it relative to the cost of labor. 0:06:46.640 --> 0:06:49.040 So it really is a transition where we will need 0:06:49.040 --> 0:06:52.159 to figure out over time exactly what does the endpoint 0:06:52.160 --> 0:06:53.720 look like. Are we going to get to a point 0:06:53.720 --> 0:06:56.359 where we will be much more productive and will be 0:06:56.600 --> 0:06:59.479 in my view, probably need more labor and not less labor, 0:06:59.560 --> 0:07:01.920 especially in the aggrogod from the macro perspexive. 0:07:02.080 --> 0:07:05.200 You're pointing to a very much inflationary backdrop. And this 0:07:05.279 --> 0:07:07.160 comes ahead of the labor market report that we get 0:07:07.200 --> 0:07:09.800 on Friday that could be hotter than expected if we 0:07:09.880 --> 0:07:11.640 see the same kind of trend continue as we saw 0:07:11.760 --> 0:07:14.560 last month. What do you think the Fed's response will 0:07:14.640 --> 0:07:17.680 ultimately be given the fact that no one has the appetite. 0:07:17.240 --> 0:07:17.880 To raise rates. 0:07:18.080 --> 0:07:20.560 Well, This is, of course the challenge that the expectations 0:07:20.560 --> 0:07:22.040 for a long time in the dot plot has been 0:07:22.040 --> 0:07:23.480 the rates are going down and the fad is going 0:07:23.520 --> 0:07:26.000 to cut, and now markets and fit fund futures up 0:07:26.120 --> 0:07:28.000 slowly beginning to say, well, maybe there could be a 0:07:28.080 --> 0:07:29.920 hike coming. And we all know that if there's a 0:07:30.000 --> 0:07:32.480 hike coming, then it doesn't come alone. Hiking cycles on 0:07:32.560 --> 0:07:34.480 never just one hike and that's it. It will always 0:07:34.520 --> 0:07:36.680 be three or four hikes on more. So that's why 0:07:36.720 --> 0:07:38.360 the market is debating with itself. 0:07:38.080 --> 0:07:39.600 In breaks, well, if. 0:07:39.480 --> 0:07:41.960 There is a rate hike cycle beginning because of these 0:07:42.240 --> 0:07:44.320 factors that we both have a low un employment rate 0:07:44.360 --> 0:07:45.880 and at the same time we also have op pressure 0:07:45.880 --> 0:07:48.400 on inflation, then all those things would certainly argue for 0:07:48.720 --> 0:07:50.640 the risks to the upside. Maybe the rates are going 0:07:50.680 --> 0:07:51.640 to stay higher for longer. 0:07:52.000 --> 0:07:54.880 The picture that you're painting of both an inflationary buildout 0:07:54.920 --> 0:07:57.840 of AI plus a labor market that's poised for expansion 0:07:57.880 --> 0:08:01.200 not contraction due to the extra economic activity, is one 0:08:01.200 --> 0:08:03.560 that could call for a rate hiking cycle. What could 0:08:03.600 --> 0:08:05.920 you potentially see, I mean, what is increasingly your base 0:08:06.000 --> 0:08:07.800 case going into twenty twenty seven. 0:08:07.920 --> 0:08:09.480 Yeah, because this is affects to a mandate. 0:08:09.480 --> 0:08:11.480 They've it has two goals exactly as you're saying, Lisa, 0:08:11.520 --> 0:08:13.880 namely the un enjoyment rate, and that's been going down 0:08:13.880 --> 0:08:16.560 and it's likely to, according to the consensus, continue to 0:08:16.640 --> 0:08:18.680 go down. And inflation by the end of the year 0:08:18.800 --> 0:08:19.880 is still, according to. 0:08:19.840 --> 0:08:22.480 The consensus, three percent. So if you're three percent. 0:08:22.200 --> 0:08:24.960 Inflation and a very strong label market, that indeed opens 0:08:25.040 --> 0:08:27.000 up a much high likelihood that we will see a 0:08:27.000 --> 0:08:29.480 stronger economy. Also because of the tail. And let's not forget 0:08:29.720 --> 0:08:31.560 it's not only the AI boom, but it's also the 0:08:31.560 --> 0:08:33.679 one big ULIFL bill, and both these things are not 0:08:33.720 --> 0:08:34.920 sensitive to interist rates. 0:08:35.040 --> 0:08:36.520 It's really unique those. 0:08:36.360 --> 0:08:38.319 Factors that are sensitives to interistrates in GDP and me 0:08:38.400 --> 0:08:41.480 housing and ordels. They are slowing down, but the factors 0:08:41.520 --> 0:08:43.400 that are driving grows at the moment, the AI boom 0:08:43.400 --> 0:08:45.000 and the one big ULI for bill. It doesn't matter 0:08:45.040 --> 0:08:46.680 what the Fed funds rate is doing, we will have 0:08:46.679 --> 0:08:48.600 an AI boom. It doesn't matter what their FT funds 0:08:48.640 --> 0:08:50.440 rate is doing. The one pig ril for Bill will 0:08:50.440 --> 0:08:52.840 continue to just s fort GDP for the next several quarters. 0:08:52.880 --> 0:08:54.880 It's Astin it's going to say it always is. Thank 0:08:54.920 --> 0:08:58.600 you Toustin Slock then of Apollo stay with us. Multil 0:08:58.600 --> 0:09:11.360 imperg surveillance coming up after this, Peter chab Academy writing 0:09:11.400 --> 0:09:14.000 the higher for longer thing for energy prices, we'll sink 0:09:14.040 --> 0:09:17.520 in and start to price itself into markets even more. 0:09:17.760 --> 0:09:20.840 Pay joins us now for more, pagod Morning Morning price 0:09:20.920 --> 0:09:24.880 itself in in what way into growth expectations or even 0:09:24.920 --> 0:09:26.640 more into inflation expectations, thinking. 0:09:26.440 --> 0:09:29.160 Into inflation expectations, pushing bond yield hire And again, I 0:09:29.160 --> 0:09:31.280 think you've been pointing out right the stock markets are 0:09:31.280 --> 0:09:34.760 our all time highs if you strip away the AI story, 0:09:34.960 --> 0:09:37.160 stocks heaven, so they've already been pricing in some of this. 0:09:37.200 --> 0:09:39.800 So I think that affordability risk is there a little 0:09:39.800 --> 0:09:41.800 bit in stocks. You have to look through to the 0:09:41.880 --> 0:09:44.800 various subcomponents to see it. I think that continues, and unfortunately, 0:09:44.800 --> 0:09:46.880 I think it gets worse because, unlike what they're saying, 0:09:46.960 --> 0:09:49.480 I keep looking at the January futures contract for oil. It's, 0:09:49.520 --> 0:09:51.880 you know, right around eighty it has not dropped much 0:09:51.920 --> 0:09:53.520 at all. So all of a sudden, you know, this 0:09:53.559 --> 0:09:55.600 whole kind of concept that we had two months ago 0:09:55.640 --> 0:09:57.760 where by the end of August things would be normalizing. 0:09:57.960 --> 0:10:00.440 I don't think we're normalizing anytime soon. And this is 0:10:00.600 --> 0:10:03.840 still hasn't fit the economy fully straight shot. 0:10:03.880 --> 0:10:06.320 For three months, we've had a bit of leakage, but 0:10:06.640 --> 0:10:08.400 all but closed. For three months, we've had a move 0:10:08.440 --> 0:10:10.360 of about sixty basis points at a front end of 0:10:10.440 --> 0:10:12.920 the curve, so two year olds have been higher. What 0:10:13.040 --> 0:10:15.000 more do we need to do on the right side. 0:10:15.400 --> 0:10:17.200 I think we are probably going to see five on 0:10:17.280 --> 0:10:19.200 tens before we see four percent on tens. I think 0:10:19.240 --> 0:10:22.199 you're just going to see global bond yields under pressure. 0:10:22.400 --> 0:10:24.480 Everyone has to spend on defense, everyone has to build 0:10:24.520 --> 0:10:26.840 out their industrial base, everyone's got to build that electricity 0:10:26.880 --> 0:10:29.320 and energy prices. People are feeling that pinch. So I 0:10:29.320 --> 0:10:32.320 think global bond yields are going higher. We're going to 0:10:32.320 --> 0:10:34.800 face that, and I think we're at the point if 0:10:34.840 --> 0:10:36.760 we get too much dubbish talk out of the FED, 0:10:37.080 --> 0:10:39.080 they will lose some control over the long end of 0:10:39.080 --> 0:10:41.240 the yield curve. That was not my view back in 0:10:41.240 --> 0:10:44.040 February before we started the invasion, but now everything that's 0:10:44.080 --> 0:10:46.679 going on tells me that if we try and job 0:10:46.679 --> 0:10:48.520 own about rate cuts. We're going to lose a little 0:10:48.520 --> 0:10:49.200 bit of control out. 0:10:49.080 --> 0:10:49.480 The long end. 0:10:49.520 --> 0:10:50.679 You know, I was reading your note and I was 0:10:50.679 --> 0:10:52.680 a little bit pessimistic, and we'll get into horses and 0:10:52.720 --> 0:10:53.920 whether we're the horse. 0:10:53.880 --> 0:10:54.720 In just a second. 0:10:54.960 --> 0:10:57.079 But actually it's making me really optimistic to hear you 0:10:57.160 --> 0:10:59.560 say this, because you still think that growth will surprise 0:10:59.559 --> 0:11:01.440 to the upsose Atahol who say he was on and 0:11:01.480 --> 0:11:03.520 he thought that actually the bigger risk right now was 0:11:03.559 --> 0:11:06.720 growth surprising to the downside and the possibility that bonds 0:11:06.760 --> 0:11:08.080 would actually be a buy here. 0:11:08.240 --> 0:11:09.240 Why do you disagree with that? 0:11:09.600 --> 0:11:10.000 One is? 0:11:10.000 --> 0:11:12.480 I think people underestimate the data center and AI just 0:11:12.520 --> 0:11:14.400 the amount of jobs that are being created to build 0:11:14.400 --> 0:11:17.400 this out right. The chip industry is going like gangbusters, 0:11:17.600 --> 0:11:21.440 the construction business going extremely well, the electricity generation business 0:11:21.559 --> 0:11:24.839 going phenomenally well. So I think ultimately it's somewhat weird. 0:11:24.960 --> 0:11:26.400 Is I think you create a lot more jobs to 0:11:26.400 --> 0:11:28.480 build out the data centers than once the data centers 0:11:28.520 --> 0:11:30.880 area is up and running, those particular places don't have 0:11:30.960 --> 0:11:33.400 that much employment, but to get there, this buildout, I 0:11:33.440 --> 0:11:35.120 think that's been very good. It's been very good for 0:11:35.120 --> 0:11:37.800 logistics it's very good for the cats the deers of 0:11:37.800 --> 0:11:39.320 the world to applied things for them. 0:11:39.640 --> 0:11:40.240 Yeah, and this is the. 0:11:40.240 --> 0:11:42.440 Reason why you are seeing some job growth in places 0:11:42.440 --> 0:11:46.800 like construction and manufacturing, as well as in other related areas. 0:11:46.840 --> 0:11:49.199 Tors the slock of apolloists on earlier. 0:11:48.880 --> 0:11:51.920 Saying that he saw job growth actually expanding across different 0:11:51.960 --> 0:11:55.680 types of sectors as a result of artificial intelligence. Let's 0:11:55.679 --> 0:11:58.520 get to the horses. You think that if you create 0:11:58.640 --> 0:12:02.000 an analogy to the horse, and it's unclear whether horse 0:12:02.160 --> 0:12:06.560 and buggy or audibobile to human is the right analogy 0:12:06.640 --> 0:12:08.319 or whether it's automobile to horse. 0:12:08.520 --> 0:12:09.360 Are we the horses? 0:12:09.520 --> 0:12:10.360 That's my concern. I think. 0:12:10.400 --> 0:12:12.400 You know, you start any business class, they always go 0:12:12.400 --> 0:12:14.080 through the buggy whip and what happened to buggy whip 0:12:14.080 --> 0:12:16.680 manufacturers who all had great jobs until the automobiles. But 0:12:16.720 --> 0:12:18.720 the automobile is great for the country, right, it was 0:12:18.720 --> 0:12:21.520 great for everyone. There was huge efficiencies the automobile industry. 0:12:22.400 --> 0:12:24.080 I look in like, are we the horses though? Are 0:12:24.080 --> 0:12:26.520 they actually trying to replace humans this time? There were 0:12:26.520 --> 0:12:29.080 twenty five million horses before the automobile. There's about seven 0:12:29.080 --> 0:12:31.520 million now when you read about it, the horses today 0:12:31.520 --> 0:12:33.280 have a much better life. They don't do any hard work. 0:12:33.280 --> 0:12:35.480 They sit there and you know, they graize. They people 0:12:35.520 --> 0:12:37.640 ride them here and there. But so you know, maybe 0:12:37.640 --> 0:12:40.559 you all need UBI. But again, I'm not as convinced 0:12:40.720 --> 0:12:43.360 at this point that this is going to be great 0:12:43.360 --> 0:12:45.680 for jobs. I can see that argument, but I also 0:12:45.720 --> 0:12:47.640 see like, this is the first time I've really seen 0:12:47.679 --> 0:12:49.920 the technology. I think that's going after all our jobs 0:12:49.920 --> 0:12:50.640 in a different way. 0:12:50.720 --> 0:12:53.080 But there is also a counter argument to this. Before 0:12:53.160 --> 0:12:55.400 Uber was coming into a lot of cities, there was 0:12:55.760 --> 0:12:58.800 people protesting. People are saying we need more regulation because 0:12:58.840 --> 0:13:01.360 it's going to mean that basically in New York City, 0:13:01.360 --> 0:13:03.520 taxi drivers will be obsolete. But now you have in 0:13:03.520 --> 0:13:06.400 New York City today is warp drivers than ever Uber 0:13:06.640 --> 0:13:08.440 lift plus the taxi drivers. 0:13:08.520 --> 0:13:09.599 Isn't that counterintuitive? 0:13:10.240 --> 0:13:10.400 You know? 0:13:10.480 --> 0:13:12.440 I think one thing, I absolutely knows the price has 0:13:12.440 --> 0:13:14.520 gone way up. Right, there was a price cutting where 0:13:14.559 --> 0:13:16.520 everything went down, and now I pull up my Uber 0:13:16.520 --> 0:13:18.120 App'm like, oh man, I better take the train on. 0:13:18.120 --> 0:13:20.280 I can't afford to take the Uber home. So you know, 0:13:20.960 --> 0:13:21.480 there's been. 0:13:21.440 --> 0:13:24.680 Some time being killed driving or taxis in New York City. 0:13:24.720 --> 0:13:26.320 No, it changed into it. It changed it. 0:13:26.360 --> 0:13:28.319 And again I think all the taxis adapted to and 0:13:28.480 --> 0:13:29.360 uber like sort of things. 0:13:29.360 --> 0:13:33.280 So it's gown. It's good. But again that's one job. 0:13:33.320 --> 0:13:35.960 And again that was it didn't feel like it was 0:13:36.040 --> 0:13:39.360 revolutionizing anything. But still, how you get your taxi instead 0:13:39.360 --> 0:13:41.640 of sticking up your hand, you used an app. There 0:13:41.640 --> 0:13:43.760 were things that allowed people to take advantage of that. 0:13:43.960 --> 0:13:45.520 The other part of this is, you know, I think 0:13:45.559 --> 0:13:47.800 everyone's talking, oh, people are trying to create jobs. I'm 0:13:47.840 --> 0:13:49.599 not sure becoming an uber driver things like that is 0:13:49.640 --> 0:13:51.880 the same sort of job level as when someone starts 0:13:51.920 --> 0:13:54.280 a bakery or something where they're going to employ three 0:13:54.320 --> 0:13:56.960 to five people. So I'm a little bit skeptical. Birth 0:13:57.000 --> 0:13:59.000 death model once again this year is a big part 0:13:59.000 --> 0:14:01.480 of job growth, and for the last three years, birth 0:14:01.480 --> 0:14:03.360 death models quite a role. And then they wipe down 0:14:03.360 --> 0:14:04.959 the job by seven hundred and fifty thousand to a 0:14:05.000 --> 0:14:07.680 million because these aren't the same sort of you know, 0:14:07.760 --> 0:14:09.839 new company formation that we had in the past. 0:14:09.920 --> 0:14:12.640 You bi, how costly is this going to be? Where's 0:14:12.679 --> 0:14:13.480 the money coming from? 0:14:13.559 --> 0:14:13.720 You know? 0:14:14.280 --> 0:14:15.839 It was some of those things I've really tried to 0:14:15.880 --> 0:14:18.800 avoid thinking about universal basic income and cstend it gets 0:14:18.840 --> 0:14:21.200 me wrong, and then all of a sudden two weeks ago, Okay, 0:14:21.200 --> 0:14:23.360 I better start writing about this at least a little bit. 0:14:23.520 --> 0:14:25.280 South Korea seems to be the first ones that are 0:14:25.360 --> 0:14:26.720 kind of pushing that direction, right. 0:14:26.720 --> 0:14:27.120 They are. 0:14:27.440 --> 0:14:30.280 Their economy is so bipolar, right, It's like you've got 0:14:30.280 --> 0:14:33.240 this memory and the chips just crushing and absolutely crushing it. 0:14:33.400 --> 0:14:34.200 The rest of the economy. 0:14:34.200 --> 0:14:36.600 I don't know, you know, they're benefiting, but clearly there's 0:14:36.600 --> 0:14:40.080 some degree of willingness to share these profits. I feel 0:14:40.080 --> 0:14:42.000 like the biggest threat right now in the US to 0:14:42.240 --> 0:14:45.000 AI data center story, it's not the use. It's not 0:14:45.080 --> 0:14:48.600 corporations not wanting it. It's politicians trying to latch onto 0:14:48.640 --> 0:14:51.800 some of this negative sentiment, either about the electricity generation, 0:14:51.880 --> 0:14:54.800 the electricity usage, or the jobs. And I feel this 0:14:54.840 --> 0:14:56.520 is going to be a political risk more than anything. 0:14:56.520 --> 0:14:58.760 Maybe that's why I kind of mentioned UBI who's. 0:14:58.560 --> 0:15:03.040 Got the appetite to rite co protech? Well, could become 0:15:03.080 --> 0:15:04.320 a bipartisan issue. 0:15:04.400 --> 0:15:06.120 You know, who thought we'd have a mayor in New 0:15:06.200 --> 0:15:09.320 York that on many times seems very socialist to say 0:15:09.320 --> 0:15:09.760 the least. 0:15:10.280 --> 0:15:11.360 So yeah, I could. 0:15:11.160 --> 0:15:13.600 See something I'm watching for just if the Republican Party 0:15:14.160 --> 0:15:15.760 starts to get along with the idea that that's the 0:15:15.800 --> 0:15:17.960 next step of populism, that you have to do something 0:15:18.320 --> 0:15:20.000 about corporate taxes. 0:15:19.720 --> 0:15:21.800 Or maybe it's the Democrats. I feel like there's something 0:15:21.960 --> 0:15:27.000 bubbling below this, that is, there's something unfair about what's 0:15:27.040 --> 0:15:28.480 going on with AI and electricity. 0:15:28.520 --> 0:15:29.280 I don't think it is at all. 0:15:29.280 --> 0:15:30.720 It fits our exact theme that we need to be 0:15:30.720 --> 0:15:32.080 good at data centers, we need to be good at 0:15:32.120 --> 0:15:35.560 AI chips, building out electricity. I think we're seeing a reindustrialization. 0:15:36.000 --> 0:15:38.040