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Speaker 1: What's up, guys? How are you welcome to the Thursday

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Speaker 1: the Thursday, Yes, yes, the Thursday edition of the Daily

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Speaker 1: Juice podcast. My name is Matt Perrault. You can follow

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Speaker 1: me on Twitter at sports Talk Matt. This podcast is

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Speaker 1: always found on Bettingpros dot com and it's always being

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Speaker 1: brought to you by your friends at bet MGM. And yeah,

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Speaker 1: so yesterday was a rough day. So every year in

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Speaker 1: mid October, after the NFL gets started, I kind of

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Speaker 1: crash and I kind of have a brain meltdown. And

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Speaker 1: that's what happened yesterday. And I am really sorry. I'm

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Speaker 1: very embarrassed. It normally happens once a year, once a

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Speaker 1: season in football season, where I literally get so turned

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Speaker 1: around that I don't know where I am. And I

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Speaker 1: thought yesterday was Thursday. You probably heard the podcast. I

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Speaker 1: thought I was making plays on Thursday Night football. I

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Speaker 1: thought I was making plays on college football for Thursday night.

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Speaker 1: So I was not. But my baseball plays were on.

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Speaker 1: And we went one and one on our baseball plays,

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Speaker 1: taking two overs yesterday, and the overs went three and one,

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Speaker 1: and wouldn't you know it, the one game where the

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Speaker 1: over did not hit was the game I bet the

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Speaker 1: over and I didn't win. We got the Yankees and

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Speaker 1: the Rays right over easily on nine. Every game in

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Speaker 1: that series so far has gone over, and unfortunately we

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Speaker 1: missed on the Braves and the Marlins. I thought we'd

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Speaker 1: see some runs there. We did not put the other

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Speaker 1: games Dodgers and the Padres was an epic game. That

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Speaker 1: game went over. So yeah. I mean it's one of

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Speaker 1: those situations where if you want to bet overs again

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Speaker 1: today and just be them blindly. I don't hate it,

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Speaker 1: I don't dislike it. I mean I think the ball

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Speaker 1: is juiced. I mean the home run numbers are insane.

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Speaker 1: And some people gave me some pushback and said, well,

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Speaker 1: during the day or in the afternoons this time of

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Speaker 1: the year, the ball sometimes flies out of southern California.

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Speaker 1: You know, there could be some wind, and you know, no,

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Speaker 1: I just just no, I'm just not buying it. I mean,

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Speaker 1: I'm just not buying the home runs in Texas and

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Speaker 1: the home runs in California. I'm just not buying them. Okay,

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Speaker 1: you can disagree. I just think the baseball is doctored.

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Speaker 1: I think they want the home run. I think they've

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Speaker 1: been looking for the home run to get ratings, and

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Speaker 1: it's run run runs everywhere. Pitching stinks too, certain teams

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Speaker 1: aren't pitching very well, but it's runs on top of

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Speaker 1: runs on top of runs. And the Yankees got shelled

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Speaker 1: and that just what was really beneficial to us. And

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Speaker 1: I think you could see the Rays get shaped get

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Speaker 1: shelled today. So there's just a lot to talk about

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Speaker 1: here on the podcast. So before we get to the

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Speaker 1: picks today, and I've got two football plays, I've got

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Speaker 1: two prop bets to talk about, and want baseball play

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Speaker 1: to talk about. Coming up today, we want to tell

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Speaker 1: Quick updates on where we are with the live stream

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Speaker 1: for our goal to get to one thousand subscribers for

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Speaker 1: telling us what you think about the Daily Juice and

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Speaker 1: being a part of that. So, look, this has been

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Speaker 1: a lot of fun. You guys are doing some really

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Speaker 1: cool work the live stream every Sunday morning, we're kicking

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Speaker 1: lot of years of getting involved with the prop bets

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Speaker 1: and everything else happening on the live stream. We are

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Speaker 1: at two hundred and sixty reviews on Apple Podcast, which

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Speaker 1: leaving a screen us sorry, a review off of Apple Podcast.

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Speaker 1: Stit your screenshot and drop that picture on betting pros

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Speaker 1: dot com. Slash juice and you're injured and we'll give

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Speaker 1: that away soon. So good stuff, really exciting. All right,

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Speaker 1: So yesterday on the podcast, I gave you Florida in

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Speaker 1: the first half minus three and a half against Mississippi State.

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Speaker 1: All Right, I still like that play. That play. I

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Speaker 1: knew that play was in advance, so I wasn't totally wrong.

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Speaker 1: I just thought I was well the wrong day. But

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Speaker 1: I wasn't totally crazy when I was saying, go ahead

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Speaker 1: and take that because that line might move. And I

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Speaker 1: still think that that line might wind up moving and

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Speaker 1: hasn't moved yet. It's still three and a half for

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Speaker 1: the first half, and it's six and a half for

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Speaker 1: the game for the Gators at tix A and M.

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Speaker 1: But I think as we approach kickoff, I think it

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Speaker 1: probably goes to seven and maybe higher. So I'm sticking

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Speaker 1: with it. Still like it Florida first half last three

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Speaker 1: and a half. We will add a bunch of college

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Speaker 1: football plays. Clearly right, We're gonna add a bunch of

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Speaker 1: first half plays as well. As soon as the Alabama

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Speaker 1: Ole Miss first half line gets put up, we are

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Speaker 1: we are going to bet the Alabama first half line.

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Speaker 1: I just can't bet it get here in Vegas is

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Speaker 1: not up yet, so we will bet that it probably

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Speaker 1: will be twelve, it might be thirteen and a half.

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Speaker 1: As long as it's under fourteen, I'll be taking the

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Speaker 1: Alabama Crimson tide in the first half on the road

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Speaker 1: at ole Miss. Yes, the weather may be a factor,

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Speaker 1: I don't care. It's Alabama against ole Miss. Lane Kiffin

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Speaker 1: is the coach of ole Miss. Alabama is going to destroy,

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Speaker 1: and I mean destroy Old Miss coming up this weekend.

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Speaker 1: Because of how angry Nick Saban in the rivalry. That's there,

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Speaker 1: but that's not play today. That's just a pointer where

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna be later on. But Florida first half minus

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Speaker 1: three and a half, one unit on that game is

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Speaker 1: a play we gave it to yesterday. That play is good,

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Speaker 1: all right. So for Thursday night football, here's the thing

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Speaker 1: I told you yesterday. I'm gonna maintain it and I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna stay with it. If Mike Evans plays. If Mike

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Speaker 1: Evans plays minus three and a half Tampa, that's the bet.

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Speaker 1: I know it's a lot to say one wide receiver

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Speaker 1: changes a lot, but I think Miller's gonna play. I

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Speaker 1: think the Scooter's gonna play. He played through an injury

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Speaker 1: last week and then go play this week. It could

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Speaker 1: be a big week for Gronkowski with oj Howard out now.

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Speaker 1: But this is a pros versus Joe's run. And I

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Speaker 1: was talking to a couple of sportsbook friends of mine,

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Speaker 1: and right now, the big pros versus Joe's games so

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Speaker 1: far in prime time, the Joe's the public. They're four

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Speaker 1: and oh so by coming up here and saying, you know,

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Speaker 1: fade the public and you know, don't go with the

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Speaker 1: masses in primetime. Everyone's taken Tom Brady. But here we

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Speaker 1: go with our classic reverse line movement. Get ready to

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Speaker 1: hear that it's reverse line movement. The better are coming

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Speaker 1: in on Tampa. But the line's moving why, Oh no,

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Speaker 1: we don't know why. Okay, there is no such thing

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Speaker 1: as sharp money. There's no things respected money. It's liability.

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Speaker 1: The book makers want to do, and they're all following

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Speaker 1: the offshores. And when the offshores go ahead and move

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Speaker 1: a number, then they all move the number together, and

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Speaker 1: no one wants to be alone. It's this big group

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Speaker 1: of people never wanted to be more than a half

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Speaker 1: a point apart. And everyone gets all nervous and oh no,

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Speaker 1: that place that moved. Okay, we got to adjust our line,

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Speaker 1: but why But they're just in their line, so we

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Speaker 1: have to adjust our line. But we don't have any

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Speaker 1: money on it. Who cares toust it? That's what happens, okay.

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Speaker 1: So like as you hear so many people breaking down

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Speaker 1: line movements and breaking down what's happening in the book,

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Speaker 1: and oh, here we go, so the sharp money late

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Speaker 1: line movement on this you don't know why they're moving it?

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Speaker 1: All right, that's the joke, that's the inside joke. That's

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Speaker 1: what all the guys behind the counter are laughing at

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Speaker 1: all the media people making these comments right for a kickoff,

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Speaker 1: trying to sound smart, right, they're laughing at us on

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Speaker 1: this side of the counter. Reverse line movements. Well, sixty

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Speaker 1: five percent of the money is coming in here on Tampa,

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Speaker 1: but the line's going against them. Why, oh cause those

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Speaker 1: professional players are I don't mean to be a dick.

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Speaker 1: I'm sorry, it's just it's just one of those things, man,

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Speaker 1: It just really is. It's just one of those things

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Speaker 1: that you just kinda shake your head out. So I

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Speaker 1: bet what you want to bet, Okay, don't, don't. Who cares?

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Speaker 1: The public wins? We do, Okay, the public wins, pros win.

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Speaker 1: What do you think is going to happen? And here's

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Speaker 1: what I think is going to happen. Mike Evans plays, Tampa, wins,

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Speaker 1: Tampa covers. Now you might go, why, Here's why Tampa's

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Speaker 1: defense not their offense. If you're gonna ask Nick Foles

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Speaker 1: to throw the ball a ton, I'm just not scared

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Speaker 1: of Alan Robinson. Not Tampa right now is second in

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Speaker 1: the NFL in rush yards given up at two hundred

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Speaker 1: and fifty seven. Only the Steelers have given up less

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Speaker 1: two point seven yards per carry three rushing touchdowns on

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Speaker 1: the year. The longest run they've given up so far

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Speaker 1: this season is fourteen yards. Okay, you aren't going to

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Speaker 1: do much with on the ground against this team. Now.

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Speaker 1: The Bears defense is really good and really good. It's

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Speaker 1: the pass okay, really good. And you want to talk

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Speaker 1: about yards given up, and you know they're among the

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Speaker 1: best in yards given up right now. The best in

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Speaker 1: the NFL yards given up are the Colts at six

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Speaker 1: hundred and thirty seven yards given up, and the Bears

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Speaker 1: come in a little bit down further with nine hundred

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Speaker 1: and twenty one yards through the air given up. The

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Speaker 1: Bucks have given up some numbers and given up some plays.

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Speaker 1: Here they're at nine hundred ninety one seven point nine

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Speaker 1: yards per pass completion. But Nick Foles was really bad

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Speaker 1: last week throwing the football against Indianapolis's defense, which is okay,

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Speaker 1: But I think Tampa's defense actually is better than Indianapolis's.

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Speaker 1: This is prime time, this is a short week, and

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Speaker 1: Tampa's definitely banged up. So the Sharps, the pros whatever

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Speaker 1: they love to bet against the banged up team traveling

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Speaker 1: on the road on Thursday night. This is just kind

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Speaker 1: of a system play for a lot of people. But

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Speaker 1: I I don't like the Bears. I just don't like

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Speaker 1: the Bears. And look, I may be on the wrong

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Speaker 1: side of it here, but if Mike Evans plays, I

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Speaker 1: haven't bet this yet, Okay, just to let you know

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Speaker 1: here at the time of taping, it is a pick

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Speaker 1: with an asterisk. Okay, it's a pick. Mike Evans tests

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Speaker 1: the ankle, Mike Mike Evans plays, bet it, so wait

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Speaker 1: to see right before kickoff. If Mike Evans is playing

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Speaker 1: in this game, bet Tampa minus three and a half.

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Speaker 1: If we get to tomorrow and Mike Evans is ruled out.

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Speaker 1: If we get tomorrow and being meaning Thursday, because this is

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Speaker 1: Wednesday night when I tape this, sorry, so when we

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Speaker 1: get to game time today, if Mike Evans is out,

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Speaker 1: no play. Okay, no play, FYI, no play. Whether Mike

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Speaker 1: Evans plays or not doesn't impact my bets on the props.

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Speaker 1: Two bets, two props, both half unit plays. I am

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Speaker 1: going under two hundred and sixty four and a half

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Speaker 1: yards passing for Tom Brady out of half a unit.

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Speaker 1: Why just told you about the passing stats here for

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Speaker 1: that Giants defense. And I think this is a game

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Speaker 1: in which, if you look at the injuries, I don't

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Speaker 1: think Brady's gonna throw the ball a ton. In fact,

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Speaker 1: if Mike Evis doesn't play, I like this prop even

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Speaker 1: more for Tom Brady. But I think Tom Brady's gonna

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Speaker 1: have a difficult time throwing the football here. I don't

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Speaker 1: think points are gonna are gonna get scored a whole lot.

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Speaker 1: I don't hate a play on the under in this game.

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Speaker 1: I'm just not comfortable right now betting unders in the

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Speaker 1: NFL forty four and a half. The number is ticking up.

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Speaker 1: Forty four is a really low number, okay, in the NFL.

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Speaker 1: In today's NFL, forty four is remember, oh, I guess

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Speaker 1: I didn't tend this on the podcast. On my radio show,

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Speaker 1: I talked about this. The average score and the average

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Speaker 1: total in the NFL every week has increased by one

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Speaker 1: point over one point every week, where now at fifty

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Speaker 1: over fifty is the average total for the NFL right now,

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Speaker 1: that's crazy. So the books are just adjusting and they're

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Speaker 1: going up, and this is one of the lowest numbers

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Speaker 1: of the week right now forty four and a half.

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Speaker 1: As of right now, it's tied with the Eagles and

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Speaker 1: the Steelers for the low number on the week. And

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Speaker 1: we've got a bunch of games off the board, obviously

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Speaker 1: right because of COVID nineteen, but right now for the

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Speaker 1: games that are on the board, forty four and a

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Speaker 1: half is the low. So it's hard to play the

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Speaker 1: under here. It just feels like an under game yet

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Speaker 1: all these games coming with the over, So I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: skip on the total. If Mike Evans plays minus three

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Speaker 1: and a half, we're taking under two hundred and sixty

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Speaker 1: four and a half yards passing. For Tom Brady, I

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Speaker 1: think it's gonna be a tough game for him throwing

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Speaker 1: the football. They're gonna blitz the holy heck out of

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Speaker 1: him to make him uncomfortable at Soldier Field on the road.

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Speaker 1: And the other prop is under David Montgomery forty nine

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Speaker 1: and a half yards rushing. Why, well, just told you

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Speaker 1: why that rush defense for the Buccaneers is legitimate. You're

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Speaker 1: not gonna run, and Montgomery's so light, he just I

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Speaker 1: just don't think you're gonna run in this Tampa defense.

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Speaker 1: And they're gonna have to throw, and I think the

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Speaker 1: Bears know that. I think the Bears are gonna have

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Speaker 1: to try to throw the football vertically against this Bucks defense.

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Speaker 1: And well, frankly, the Bucks defense is pretty good against

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Speaker 1: the past too, so you know they're a good throw

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Speaker 1: on the ball, they're good defending the pass. So I

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Speaker 1: think this is gonna be a tough game offensive for

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Speaker 1: both teams. But I like it Tom Brady under two

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Speaker 1: sixty four and a half passing stats. I like it

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Speaker 1: even more if Evans doesn't play. And I like the

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Speaker 1: under David Montgomery forty nine and a half yards rushing.

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Speaker 1: Both those at a half a unit. And I know

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Speaker 1: unders in these props are so tough to do right now,

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Speaker 1: But again, it's just what I think about this game.

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Speaker 1: I think it's gonna be kind of an ugly offensive game.

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Speaker 1: You may get points from the defense pick sixes and whatnot.

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Speaker 1: We know Brady's capable of doing that, so that might

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Speaker 1: drop drive the score up or not. But Evans plays

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Speaker 1: minus three and a half under Brady passing two sixty

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Speaker 1: four and a half and under David Montgomery forty nine

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Speaker 1: and a half, both those for a half of unit. Okay,

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Speaker 1: So the other play is what I told you about yesterday,

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Speaker 1: and I'm sticking with the total for Houston in TWU lane.

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Speaker 1: So Houston finally gets to play after all the COVID problems,

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Speaker 1: they finally get to play a game. The number we

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Speaker 1: gave out last night was fifty nine and it's ticked

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Speaker 1: up to fifteen and a half right now at the

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Speaker 1: time of taping, So hopefully you took it at fifty nine.

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Speaker 1: TU Lane's gonna run the ball all over Houston, and

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Speaker 1: Houston's gonna run and throw the ball all over two lane.

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Speaker 1: Just what's gonna happen. It's gonna be a video game

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Speaker 1: back and forth. If you like offense, you're gonna love

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Speaker 1: this game on Thursday night, Houston. Have they tackled, have

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Speaker 1: they practiced? We don't know, two Lane. I believe this

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Speaker 1: is what they're fourth game for two lane, so they

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Speaker 1: are way more prepared for this game. They're way more

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Speaker 1: comfortable in this game. So I like the over fifty nine.

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Speaker 1: And I'm going back to the Yankees and the Rays

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Speaker 1: and it's hit three straight games in a row, and

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Speaker 1: until it doesn't hit, we're just gonna keep on betting

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Speaker 1: it at a half a unit until it doesn't hit again.

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Speaker 1: If you want to blindly bet all games tonight, all

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Speaker 1: games in Major League Baseball, if you want to go

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Speaker 1: ahead and bet the overs, I don't hate it. And

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Speaker 1: I mean maybe if you want to get really kind

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Speaker 1: of crazy, you just like parlay all together, maybe go

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Speaker 1: four to oh. I don't know. I don't like parlaying.

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Speaker 1: I'm not telling you to parlay. But there's different ways

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Speaker 1: of playing this. I mean, overs again went three and one.

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Speaker 1: You know, the overs went three and one. So it's

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Speaker 1: it's an interesting situation for sure right now when it

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Speaker 1: comes to the amount of offense we're seeing with home

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Speaker 1: runs flying all over the ballpark, but the total is

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Speaker 1: nine and a half, and I'm gonna go ahead and

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Speaker 1: minus one oh five. Let's go ahead and take you know,

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Speaker 1: Rais Yanks nine and a half over minus one oh

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Speaker 1: five for a half a unit and just expect more offense.

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Speaker 1: I do think Yankees win, by the way. I mean,

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Speaker 1: I think it's gonna be a I do think it's

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Speaker 1: gonna be an opportunity here for some offense. And I

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Speaker 1: do think the Raids are gonna be forced to a

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Speaker 1: Game five between the Yankees and the race. So Thursday

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Speaker 1: Night Football, if Evans plays Tampa minus three and a half,

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Speaker 1: Brady under two sixty five two sixty four and a

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Speaker 1: half yards passing for half unit, David Montgomery under four

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Speaker 1: to nine and a half yards rushing at a half a unit,

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Speaker 1: Houston over fifty nine for one unit and for a

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Speaker 1: half a unit, the Yankees and the Rays over nine

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Speaker 1: and a half runs for tonight in baseball, my name

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Speaker 1: is Matt Perrault. You can follow me on Twitter at

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Speaker 1: sports Talk Matt. I know what date is. I got

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Speaker 1: my brain right, I got some sleep. We're good to

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Speaker 1: go and work back tomorrow morning for a Friday edition

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Speaker 1: of the Daily News podcast, presented by betmgm off of

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Speaker 1: Bettingpros dot com