WEBVTT - August Jobs Report and Rate Cuts 0:00:02.520 --> 0:00:13.760 Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg 0:00:13.840 --> 0:00:17.920 Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern 0:00:18.200 --> 0:00:21.240 on Apple car Play or Android Auto with the Bloomberg 0:00:21.320 --> 0:00:24.840 Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, 0:00:25.280 --> 0:00:26.960 or watch us live on YouTube. 0:00:27.080 --> 0:00:27.840 Joining us now. 0:00:27.840 --> 0:00:30.600 Claudius Sam of course for their work at the FED 0:00:30.640 --> 0:00:35.199 for many years and definitive on the American economy. Here 0:00:35.240 --> 0:00:39.000 we are twenty two thousand is the headline number distant 0:00:39.040 --> 0:00:41.640 from the old number of one point fifty being healthy? 0:00:41.680 --> 0:00:44.639 How close did we come to a negative number exchange 0:00:44.640 --> 0:00:51.760 in manufacturing payrolls revision negative actual statistic negative twelve thousand. 0:00:52.200 --> 0:00:55.920 But far more it's about moving forward with a FED. 0:00:56.000 --> 0:01:00.400 Claudius Sam is with us with New Century Advisors, Laudia 0:01:00.480 --> 0:01:03.280 this sets us up even more, is Anaalog and Stephen 0:01:03.360 --> 0:01:08.080 Englander and Claudia Sam have said for this important September 0:01:08.200 --> 0:01:13.680 nine revision. When you see this tepidness including non farm 0:01:13.880 --> 0:01:18.399 three months moving average of twenty nine thousand, how do 0:01:18.480 --> 0:01:22.000 you interpret what we may see with a big negative 0:01:22.040 --> 0:01:23.640 revision September ninth? 0:01:26.000 --> 0:01:28.160 Right, So first I say, just from the data today, 0:01:28.560 --> 0:01:32.520 this ought to be able to convince people with the 0:01:32.560 --> 0:01:35.080 FED who were on the fence about doing a rate cut. 0:01:35.280 --> 0:01:37.720 This really does speak in terms of it's time to 0:01:38.120 --> 0:01:41.639 start adjusting interest rates downward. I think it still fits 0:01:41.680 --> 0:01:44.160 within the This is a risk. You know, there are 0:01:44.160 --> 0:01:46.279 a lot of reasons that job growth could be slowing 0:01:46.319 --> 0:01:48.680 because of labor supply, and it is very consistent to 0:01:48.720 --> 0:01:50.440 see that and the unemployer ate tick up. 0:01:50.680 --> 0:01:52.800 Not you know, it's not jumping up, it's moving up. 0:01:53.080 --> 0:01:55.520 But this really does firm up the case that Powe 0:01:55.600 --> 0:01:58.160 made in Jackson Hole and Chris Waller has been making 0:01:58.200 --> 0:02:00.800 about it's time to start cutting. But I think I 0:02:00.880 --> 0:02:03.040 still think this data is in line with a gradual 0:02:03.080 --> 0:02:05.720 pace of cutting. The data that we will get next 0:02:05.720 --> 0:02:08.960 week on the Annual Revision that is a preliminary estimate 0:02:09.000 --> 0:02:11.440 for the level of employment in March of this year. 0:02:11.800 --> 0:02:15.320 So it really is not going to tell us anything 0:02:15.400 --> 0:02:17.760 about what's been happening in recent months when we've had 0:02:17.760 --> 0:02:20.480 this you know, slowing in job growth, because the policies 0:02:20.520 --> 0:02:23.200 have changed so much since March of this year. 0:02:23.240 --> 0:02:25.200 So it's important information. We'll be watching it. 0:02:25.480 --> 0:02:27.880 But in terms of kind of you know, adjudicating what's 0:02:27.880 --> 0:02:29.400 happening right now in the labor market. 0:02:29.520 --> 0:02:30.800 It's not going to be that helpful. 0:02:30.840 --> 0:02:33.160 All the two year yield almost back to those April 0:02:33.240 --> 0:02:33.840 low yields. 0:02:33.919 --> 0:02:36.960 Yeah, I'm keeping an eye on that, Tom Claudia. To 0:02:37.000 --> 0:02:39.760 the extent that this data today maybe does prompt this 0:02:39.840 --> 0:02:43.040 FED to move later this month, how do you think 0:02:43.120 --> 0:02:47.079 the cadence of their subsequent moves will be for this. 0:02:47.120 --> 0:02:51.760 FED, the cadence is going to come off of the data. 0:02:51.800 --> 0:02:53.560 I think we have to remember we are still an 0:02:53.600 --> 0:02:57.359 environment where inflation is elevated and we are likely to 0:02:57.360 --> 0:03:01.240 see CPI prints that you know, firm up in. 0:03:01.200 --> 0:03:01.839 The coming month. 0:03:01.880 --> 0:03:03.800 So I still think in a best case where the 0:03:03.840 --> 0:03:07.480 economy is just moving along, we're in a slower growth place. 0:03:07.520 --> 0:03:09.960 So this is not, you know, a super place to be, 0:03:10.200 --> 0:03:12.600 but we're probably going to have some push and pull 0:03:12.639 --> 0:03:15.240 of the employment data and the inflation data, and so 0:03:15.280 --> 0:03:17.400 I don't necessarily think we're set up right now for 0:03:17.720 --> 0:03:22.240 a full cutting cycle, but the data will drive on 0:03:22.280 --> 0:03:22.639 this one. 0:03:22.720 --> 0:03:25.400 We welcome you across America around the world. It is 0:03:25.440 --> 0:03:30.560 Bloomberg Surveillance on YouTube. Subscribe to Bloomberg Podcast for your office, 0:03:30.639 --> 0:03:32.600 for your home as well. Growing each and every day 0:03:32.720 --> 0:03:34.519 somebody can be able to toime. We listened it to 0:03:34.639 --> 0:03:37.800 YouTube in the car. They do it to their cell phone. 0:03:37.920 --> 0:03:40.240 I don't know. I mean I only got an iPhone five, 0:03:40.320 --> 0:03:42.680 so it doesn't it doesn't work. But they do it 0:03:42.720 --> 0:03:45.960 on radio across the nation. Traditional ninety nine one FM, 0:03:46.040 --> 0:03:50.160 Nathan Agar Radio, Good Morning in Washington, Labor Secretary coming up, 0:03:50.360 --> 0:03:52.960 and of course ninety two nine FM in Boston on 0:03:53.000 --> 0:03:57.119 this job sday. Equity sustain pretty much where they were 0:03:57.120 --> 0:04:00.080 two hours ago, the Vics fifteen point zero five, I, 0:04:00.160 --> 0:04:03.360 Paul and I watching that two year yield, really getting 0:04:03.400 --> 0:04:08.080 back to the September twenty four in April twenty five, Low, 0:04:08.120 --> 0:04:10.960 So see where we go from there, Paul. 0:04:10.800 --> 0:04:14.640 So, Claudia, the FED obviously data dependent as we know, 0:04:14.840 --> 0:04:17.040 but now they also have to deal with maybe some 0:04:17.200 --> 0:04:21.799 outside external political pressure. How do you think that's affecting 0:04:21.800 --> 0:04:23.000 this Federal Reserve these days? 0:04:27.200 --> 0:04:29.680 In terms of the decision that they'll make in September, 0:04:29.880 --> 0:04:31.200 it should not be affecting them. 0:04:31.279 --> 0:04:32.359 They're going to look at the data. 0:04:32.520 --> 0:04:35.640 They still have a majority of people on the FMC 0:04:35.880 --> 0:04:39.600 that are you know, adhere to and they all unanimously 0:04:39.640 --> 0:04:43.360 agreed to their updated framework last month, and that's all 0:04:43.400 --> 0:04:45.600 about data and all about looking at these risks, and 0:04:45.640 --> 0:04:47.560 so in terms of the decision, I don't think that 0:04:47.640 --> 0:04:52.080 changes anything one iota. In terms of the concerns in 0:04:52.160 --> 0:04:54.640 and outside of the FED, they are just I mean 0:04:54.680 --> 0:04:57.080 off the charts right now like this, this really the 0:04:57.120 --> 0:04:59.680 FED could be very different FED in not even a 0:04:59.760 --> 0:05:00.520 year from now. 0:05:01.120 --> 0:05:04.159 Okay, Claudia, I got to ask you this question because 0:05:04.240 --> 0:05:07.440 you're probably the only one I know who read cover 0:05:07.560 --> 0:05:10.520 to cover a history of the Federal Reserve Alan Meltzer 0:05:10.520 --> 0:05:13.760 in nineteen thirteen to nineteen fifty one. Did you read 0:05:13.800 --> 0:05:14.880 that entire book. 0:05:15.880 --> 0:05:16.880 It's a very good book. 0:05:17.200 --> 0:05:17.880 It's a very shame. 0:05:18.000 --> 0:05:20.200 She's the only one I know who read like fifteen 0:05:20.279 --> 0:05:25.479 hundred pages. Here's my mail, Okay, my mail is this Tom. 0:05:25.520 --> 0:05:30.039 You idiots, you fancy urban idiots and bow ties. We're 0:05:30.080 --> 0:05:34.480 in recession. How do you interpret, Claudia, the percent of 0:05:34.520 --> 0:05:41.440 America that is living recession right now? 0:05:41.920 --> 0:05:44.520 So you know this is this is a tough one 0:05:44.520 --> 0:05:47.320 and it's really a question not just for the FED. 0:05:47.520 --> 0:05:50.400 You know, there are there are demographic groups that have 0:05:50.520 --> 0:05:53.240 unemployment rates in the best of times that look like 0:05:53.760 --> 0:05:56.719 recessions for other demographic groups, and we have some real 0:05:56.800 --> 0:05:59.479 structural problems and differences in our economy. 0:05:59.800 --> 0:06:02.919 The fence tool with interest rates is a really weak tool. 0:06:03.200 --> 0:06:05.080 So the best thing they can do, and it helps 0:06:05.080 --> 0:06:07.400 everybody and particular those on the margins, is to keep 0:06:07.400 --> 0:06:10.400 the economy as stable as possible, keep inflation low, keep 0:06:10.480 --> 0:06:13.320 unemployment low, you know, and that is their mandate. 0:06:13.360 --> 0:06:15.640 But that's a bigger mandate that goes beyond the Fed. 0:06:15.800 --> 0:06:18.560 Claudia, you're foundational to us. Thank you so much for 0:06:18.600 --> 0:06:22.360 being the bedrock of our job today. Surveillance correction. Claudia, 0:06:22.360 --> 0:06:24.520 when she read Allan Meltzer, it was only eight hundred 0:06:24.520 --> 0:06:27.560 and ten pages. Ah, gotcha, doctor sum Thank you so 0:06:27.680 --> 0:06:31.280 much of Michigan and the Fed and New Century Advised 0:06:31.320 --> 0:06:33.240 his biggest fight ever had with Alan Meltzer. 0:06:33.279 --> 0:06:35.800 He said, time you have to aggregate the economy. Okay, 0:06:35.960 --> 0:06:37.800 you can't. Can we can? 0:06:37.839 --> 0:06:41.040 We security to equities all I think we should. We've 0:06:41.080 --> 0:06:43.840 been doing feast income all morning. The bond market, we're 0:06:43.839 --> 0:06:46.200 looking at the two year come in on the certitude 0:06:46.240 --> 0:06:48.840 of a rate cut thirty year bond four point eight 0:06:48.880 --> 0:06:51.520 one percent. We're bond free, joining us now Amy Wi 0:06:51.640 --> 0:06:55.840 Silverman had a derivative strategy at RBC. Okay, we're partition 0:06:56.320 --> 0:06:59.719 into the halves the AI boom and a lot of 0:06:59.720 --> 0:07:03.200 people we really ugly in this Job's report in slow down, 0:07:03.240 --> 0:07:07.800 recession stagnation. How polarized is the equity market when you 0:07:07.839 --> 0:07:10.679 look at the derivative cross moments right now? 0:07:10.800 --> 0:07:14.080 Is it like thirty stocks and everything else a little bit? 0:07:14.160 --> 0:07:17.040 Yeah, Tom, So you know, it's it's always comes back 0:07:17.080 --> 0:07:21.360 down to that concentration risk. You see that spread between 0:07:21.400 --> 0:07:24.960 equal weighted versus index weighted, and that spread keeps getting wider, 0:07:24.960 --> 0:07:27.080 and I think we keep getting that hope that that 0:07:27.120 --> 0:07:30.000 will narrow. You know, we kind of came in with 0:07:30.080 --> 0:07:33.600 the September scaries, but you know, post this report, I'm 0:07:33.640 --> 0:07:36.240 curious what the market does because we kind of were 0:07:36.280 --> 0:07:38.480 well positioned for this, and I'm curious if we go 0:07:38.640 --> 0:07:40.520 back to everything as it was. 0:07:40.640 --> 0:07:43.120 What's a positioning when you look at SKEW and particularly 0:07:43.120 --> 0:07:45.480 this thing gamma where you know, people are looking at 0:07:45.480 --> 0:07:46.440 the speed of movement. 0:07:46.800 --> 0:07:50.000 So I think this is really important post Liberation Day 0:07:50.040 --> 0:07:55.120 Tom September and October specifically, SKEW super steeps really high 0:07:55.120 --> 0:07:58.280 demand for hedging and term structure really steep. Now we're 0:07:58.320 --> 0:08:01.320 here like we're here, and so my big question is 0:08:01.880 --> 0:08:06.080 do we capitulate first or do investors because to some degree, 0:08:06.560 --> 0:08:09.280 you know, like we were kind of looking through these 0:08:09.360 --> 0:08:11.800 now with these data points and I just think back 0:08:11.840 --> 0:08:15.960 to like one year ago, how similar we felt? Right 0:08:16.040 --> 0:08:18.800 if you think about this data point one year ago, 0:08:18.920 --> 0:08:20.760 and what did the market do since your. 0:08:20.680 --> 0:08:24.280 Parents call you up and we got it right, you didn't. 0:08:25.400 --> 0:08:29.200 So in your marketing and derivatives market, are investors are 0:08:29.200 --> 0:08:34.160 they buying protection? Are they skewing towards more risk position? 0:08:34.200 --> 0:08:35.920 What are they doing these days? What's the sentiment? 0:08:36.240 --> 0:08:39.480 So they were very well set up specifically into this 0:08:39.640 --> 0:08:42.000 tenor they were well hedged. And the one thing we 0:08:42.120 --> 0:08:44.640 learned from April second is that you can be well 0:08:44.640 --> 0:08:47.800 hedged and well monetized, but you can not be right 0:08:48.000 --> 0:08:51.040 on the velocity up. So that's my question. Now, I 0:08:51.120 --> 0:08:53.400 think we kind of protected our left tails. We kind 0:08:53.400 --> 0:08:55.640 of knew this was coming to some degree as well. 0:08:55.679 --> 0:08:59.480 Telegraphed that that non FUM payroll straddle break even was 0:08:59.480 --> 0:09:01.640 was like we five seven percent. It was like a 0:09:01.679 --> 0:09:07.319 nothing burger coming into options. To me, that's interesting as 0:09:07.360 --> 0:09:10.840 the official term. And you know, so that tail has 0:09:10.880 --> 0:09:13.920 been protected, and now the question is if we get 0:09:14.040 --> 0:09:16.280 some sort of knife up, where do we sit on 0:09:16.320 --> 0:09:18.520 the right tail? I think that side has not been 0:09:18.880 --> 0:09:21.320 well protected yet by the same set of folks. 0:09:21.640 --> 0:09:24.120 Does your market care about the fed? 0:09:24.640 --> 0:09:25.760 Independence of the FED? 0:09:25.840 --> 0:09:27.880 Maybe some pressure that the FED maybe getting from the 0:09:27.920 --> 0:09:30.960 executive branch. Does the long term option market that they 0:09:31.000 --> 0:09:31.360 care about? 0:09:31.360 --> 0:09:32.720 That they do? 0:09:32.960 --> 0:09:35.560 And you know, it's interesting if you think about the 0:09:35.600 --> 0:09:38.680 first tantrum the market had, it was mostly around the 0:09:38.720 --> 0:09:41.640 comments Trump made about firing pals. So the market didn't 0:09:41.679 --> 0:09:44.000 like that. Right then we kind of fast forward to 0:09:44.120 --> 0:09:46.880 cook there's less of a reaction, but to me, it 0:09:46.960 --> 0:09:49.200 was like all part of the same reaction. The thing 0:09:49.240 --> 0:09:51.680 that I wonder about is, you know, people kind of 0:09:51.880 --> 0:09:55.280 stopped talking about this Trump taco trade. I wonder if 0:09:55.280 --> 0:09:59.720 we really get severe steepening in the rates market, if 0:09:59.800 --> 0:10:02.360 we can at higher volatility, if he doesn't just step 0:10:02.400 --> 0:10:04.600 back as comments because that's what she has done in 0:10:04.640 --> 0:10:08.480 the past, and he does recognize certain safeguards where he's like, 0:10:08.520 --> 0:10:10.199 you know, I've gone too far and I got to 0:10:10.200 --> 0:10:11.040 step it back. 0:10:10.840 --> 0:10:13.120 On job Zay. We digress to the equity markets. 0:10:13.120 --> 0:10:15.520 We do that with futures pretty much stable off where 0:10:15.520 --> 0:10:19.440 they were two hours ago pre jobs report. We're up 0:10:19.520 --> 0:10:23.480 point seven. Excuse we're up point five on NASDEK one. 0:10:23.800 --> 0:10:26.240 That's where we are right now. Futures up nine, SMP 0:10:26.360 --> 0:10:29.360 futures up nine and aiming with Silverman dazzles us from 0:10:29.480 --> 0:10:35.480 RBC Capital Markets. Okay, trend following the CTAs. I'm looking 0:10:35.520 --> 0:10:40.120 at a very very famous growth successful morning Star five 0:10:40.160 --> 0:10:43.280 star fund and it's getting right up Bucker Stupp near 0:10:43.440 --> 0:10:48.360 two standard deviations on a weekly chart. How extended are 0:10:48.480 --> 0:10:53.160 CTA is? Is trend following now legitimate or is it 0:10:53.200 --> 0:10:56.000 so stochastic that you can't make a bet? 0:10:56.720 --> 0:10:59.040 I definitely think on the margin it's important to watch, 0:10:59.200 --> 0:11:02.080 and as you said, it's kind of getting filled up. 0:11:02.120 --> 0:11:03.840 And at the same time, you know, there's a lot 0:11:03.880 --> 0:11:07.199 of kind of seasonal weakness that you get the September scaries, 0:11:07.200 --> 0:11:10.040 and then on top of that you see retail weakening, 0:11:10.080 --> 0:11:13.120 and I think that to me is why people have 0:11:13.200 --> 0:11:15.640 been very nervous about this month and next month. My 0:11:15.800 --> 0:11:17.679 question about it is Tom is like this has been 0:11:17.720 --> 0:11:22.280 the most well telegraphed potential drawdown in history and and 0:11:22.320 --> 0:11:24.560 so like how much velocity do you get into that 0:11:24.600 --> 0:11:27.120 before it snaps back? Like to me, April second felt 0:11:27.120 --> 0:11:30.480 exactly the same way, and we kind of saw what 0:11:30.559 --> 0:11:31.080 happened there. 0:11:31.640 --> 0:11:35.880 Does your market have a view on valuation? Concern about valuation, 0:11:36.000 --> 0:11:37.959 not worried about it? Like, well, if I have a concern, 0:11:38.000 --> 0:11:40.880 I can hedge it away. How does valuation come into 0:11:40.880 --> 0:11:42.360 your market? The derivator's market? 0:11:42.679 --> 0:11:45.560 You know, I remember being in a client meeting recently 0:11:45.559 --> 0:11:48.199 and we always it's like no client meeting is filled 0:11:48.280 --> 0:11:50.959 until you talk about AI and concentration valuation. And the 0:11:51.000 --> 0:11:54.079 client just said, like, has the market ever really traded 0:11:54.160 --> 0:11:57.640 off because of valuation? So meaning not that it's good 0:11:57.720 --> 0:12:00.199 or bad, but has that actually in and of itself 0:12:00.240 --> 0:12:03.480 been a catalyst the same way that like really strong 0:12:03.520 --> 0:12:05.560 concentration a couple names have been a catalyst. And that's 0:12:05.600 --> 0:12:07.600 the thing about the market is that that's not like 0:12:07.640 --> 0:12:10.720 a specific event risk. It's just something that exists and 0:12:10.760 --> 0:12:13.520 that unless something else perpetuates that that in and of 0:12:13.559 --> 0:12:16.120 itself doesn't cause draw downs or historically. 0:12:15.720 --> 0:12:17.760 You and I kneeled at the altar of Peter Lynch, 0:12:17.800 --> 0:12:19.960 and what he's going to say is, look, every ninety days, 0:12:19.960 --> 0:12:23.360 they show up and they deliver revenue report down the 0:12:23.400 --> 0:12:27.439 income statement, earnings report. Let's modernize it over to free 0:12:27.480 --> 0:12:31.160 cash flow with all the abilities of OURBC. Do you 0:12:31.240 --> 0:12:35.040 see a breaking of the model September thirtieth into the 0:12:35.080 --> 0:12:36.439 October earning season. 0:12:36.640 --> 0:12:37.400 I don't see it. 0:12:37.720 --> 0:12:39.200 I don't think so. And I think this is what 0:12:39.240 --> 0:12:43.400 I mean by like, it has felt very telegraphed, literally 0:12:43.520 --> 0:12:45.960 since April May of this year, that we were going 0:12:46.000 --> 0:12:48.720 to get some sort of draw do some sort of 0:12:48.760 --> 0:12:52.200 September scaries and failure, you know, whatever it is. And 0:12:52.240 --> 0:12:54.520 so my question is, if we've all been so well 0:12:54.559 --> 0:12:58.640 positioned for this and that gets monetized quickly, then what 0:12:58.800 --> 0:13:00.920 happens after that? Are we literally, you know, on your 0:13:00.960 --> 0:13:04.240 iPhone where you get like this day one year ago, like, 0:13:04.280 --> 0:13:08.040 are we just infra a repeat of September sixth, twenty 0:13:08.080 --> 0:13:10.040 twenty four, and what happened the month since then? 0:13:10.240 --> 0:13:12.439 What are you hearing from your clients? You know, your 0:13:12.440 --> 0:13:14.160 shoe box in the room. I mean you can hear 0:13:14.160 --> 0:13:19.280 a pin. There's like quantitative finance prass to shut up, 0:13:19.320 --> 0:13:21.840 don't ask a question. What do you hear from your clients? 0:13:22.400 --> 0:13:24.960 You know, the big question I get asked from them, 0:13:25.240 --> 0:13:29.240 is all the positioning data right now would suggest that 0:13:29.240 --> 0:13:31.600 there's kind of weakness and demand the next few months. 0:13:31.640 --> 0:13:34.880 But the question is, especially on the retail side, has 0:13:34.960 --> 0:13:38.240 there been some sort of tectonic shift where that just 0:13:38.320 --> 0:13:41.360 doesn't apply anymore? And it's really interesting because every time, 0:13:41.400 --> 0:13:43.160 you know, we just had our summer interns. They're all 0:13:43.200 --> 0:13:45.640 gone now. But every time I talk to interns, my 0:13:45.679 --> 0:13:47.960 favorite thing to do is pull them and be like, 0:13:48.000 --> 0:13:49.920 are you buying the market? Are you buying the market? 0:13:49.960 --> 0:13:53.160 Because there is this cohort that we see much more 0:13:53.240 --> 0:13:56.559 frequently in the options market that has not stepped away, 0:13:56.880 --> 0:13:59.719 and I'm very curious if we get some sort of 0:14:00.000 --> 0:14:02.320 stential move if not occurs again thirty seconds. 0:14:02.360 --> 0:14:04.840 Have you talked to Taylor since secret and the engagement? 0:14:05.200 --> 0:14:05.280 No? 0:14:05.480 --> 0:14:07.520 You know, I worry she's not going to tour because 0:14:07.520 --> 0:14:09.320 she's engaged now and she's too busy. 0:14:09.559 --> 0:14:11.280 Like, is she going to tour for shows? 0:14:11.320 --> 0:14:11.960 No, she's not. 0:14:12.160 --> 0:14:15.520 You know, I'm very disappointed in that we got her Cavier. 0:14:15.160 --> 0:14:18.160 Ball from Scully and Scully Wow went over on Park Avenue. 0:14:18.320 --> 0:14:20.800 I mean they have everything, beautiful, guest, what do you 0:14:20.880 --> 0:14:24.080 get them? I mean they have how many houses between 0:14:24.120 --> 0:14:25.080 the two of them? 0:14:25.200 --> 0:14:26.680 A puppy jersey short gut. 0:14:26.960 --> 0:14:30.160 You know to see Amie with Silverman. Thank you, so 0:14:30.280 --> 0:14:33.080 don't get her another caviar ball. We've got that taken 0:14:33.120 --> 0:14:36.440 Amy with Silverman. RBC Capital Markets here were the markets 0:14:36.440 --> 0:14:39.080 pretty much stays just off the shock of a twenty 0:14:39.120 --> 0:14:42.640 two thousand statistic on non farm payrolls four point three 0:14:42.680 --> 0:14:46.320 percent unemployment rate. We need an update from the interactive 0:14:46.320 --> 0:14:50.360 broker studios. The Bloomberg Business Flash on jobs Day, Lisa. 0:14:50.080 --> 0:14:52.240 Mantaoe, you got it in this business slash brought to 0:14:52.280 --> 0:14:55.520 you by Oracle Attention growing businesses. Oracle offering to cut 0:14:55.520 --> 0:14:57.600 your current cloud bill in half if you move to 0:14:57.640 --> 0:15:01.800 Oracle Cloud infrastructure for new U customers with minimum financial commitments. 0:15:01.800 --> 0:15:05.800 See if your company qualifies at Oracle dot Com slash Bloomberg. 0:15:06.160 --> 0:15:07.920 So yes, we have a mixed look on Wall Street. 0:15:07.960 --> 0:15:11.400 This is after US got job growth. It cooled considerably 0:15:11.520 --> 0:15:14.520 last month. Unemployment rose to the highest since twenty twenty one. 0:15:14.760 --> 0:15:17.480 So a breakdown the data showed non farm payrolls increased 0:15:17.480 --> 0:15:21.480 twenty two thousand in August. Revision showed employment shrank in June, 0:15:21.480 --> 0:15:24.960 the first payrolls decline since twenty twenty. The job is 0:15:25.040 --> 0:15:27.120 righted ticked up to four point three percent. So now 0:15:27.160 --> 0:15:29.120 we have NAZAC Future is up six ten percent, one 0:15:29.200 --> 0:15:31.360 hundred and fifty five points. S some p Future is 0:15:31.440 --> 0:15:33.760 rising two tens a percent. Down Future is little change, 0:15:33.800 --> 0:15:36.360 down about thirty two points. The two year yield three 0:15:36.360 --> 0:15:39.440 point four to nine percent. That's down nine basis points. 0:15:39.560 --> 0:15:41.680 The yield on the tenure four point zero nine percent, 0:15:41.720 --> 0:15:44.800 and that's down about six basis points. The dollar headed 0:15:44.840 --> 0:15:46.680 for its week is showing this week right now. The 0:15:46.680 --> 0:15:50.240 Bloomberg dollars spot indecks down half a percent. We've got 0:15:50.240 --> 0:15:53.600 oil slipping, WTI crewed down one percent at sixty two dollars. 0:15:53.640 --> 0:15:56.480 A barrel gold on the rise, Comix Gold at three thousand, 0:15:56.520 --> 0:15:57.880 six hundred and thirty four dollars. 0:15:57.920 --> 0:15:59.920 Announce you there, you got it. 0:16:00.160 --> 0:16:00.720 Do that for you. 0:16:01.120 --> 0:16:02.320 That is your Bloomberg business. 0:16:02.400 --> 0:16:04.680 Lash Paul and Tom are remodeling. 0:16:04.200 --> 0:16:06.680 The thirty seven hundred gold. I think you have to. 0:16:06.760 --> 0:16:09.320 I mean, there is nothing stopping this thing. What does 0:16:09.320 --> 0:16:11.040 it do for prices at Tiffany's. 0:16:11.520 --> 0:16:12.480 It can't be good. 0:16:12.520 --> 0:16:17.280 You got to pay up. The talk about elasticity, Yeah, exactly, Lisa, Lisa, 0:16:17.320 --> 0:16:18.560 thank you so much, Lisa Mattaylor. 0:16:18.560 --> 0:16:21.720 The other report, I'm watching NASIK one hundred futures up 0:16:21.760 --> 0:16:24.840 seven tens of a percent all in all, advancing here 0:16:24.920 --> 0:16:29.040 off the jobs report, the vics fifteen point zero seven 0:16:29.240 --> 0:16:32.680 Bloomberg surveillance on this job's day with day after day's 0:16:32.680 --> 0:16:38.360 support from Commonwealth. Commonwealth join over two thousand independent financial advisors. 0:16:38.400 --> 0:16:41.960 They're taking control of their growth with advisor centric support 0:16:42.040 --> 0:16:45.880 and future ready technologies. Grow in your own terms with 0:16:46.080 --> 0:16:49.640 a partner dedicated to your success. Go to Commonwealth dot 0:16:49.640 --> 0:16:54.800 com to learn how we're killing it. Ken Rogoff, Rebecca Patterson, 0:16:55.240 --> 0:17:00.000 Claudius now Christina KATMANI with a sm Investco. Same question 0:17:00.160 --> 0:17:02.920 I'm asking everybody else. If we get rate cuts, see 0:17:02.960 --> 0:17:07.760 IBC Economics Toronto saying Bank of Canada molding numbers. They 0:17:07.800 --> 0:17:10.640 suggest Bank of Canada's got a cut. If we get 0:17:10.760 --> 0:17:14.480 rate cuts, do we get the same efficacious effect in 0:17:14.520 --> 0:17:16.639 the system and in the bond market. 0:17:16.760 --> 0:17:18.639 Is it a normal rate cut? 0:17:19.200 --> 0:17:20.840 I don't know if it's a normal rate cut or 0:17:21.440 --> 0:17:24.120 what we've historically been used to, because I think we're 0:17:24.160 --> 0:17:25.399 pulling a lot of levers. 0:17:25.400 --> 0:17:26.360 We're kind of back to that. 0:17:26.359 --> 0:17:28.480 Same field of the beginning of the year, that we're 0:17:28.480 --> 0:17:31.760 getting so many policy moves from the administration at once, 0:17:32.359 --> 0:17:34.320 How do we weigh through them? What is the impact 0:17:34.359 --> 0:17:36.960 which hits first? And I think we're in the same thing. 0:17:37.000 --> 0:17:40.760 The market's digesting we've fired the BLS chair where we're 0:17:40.800 --> 0:17:43.000 pulling all of these strings with the FED. The market's 0:17:43.040 --> 0:17:46.440 contemplating FED independence. And I don't think we're seeing all 0:17:46.480 --> 0:17:49.840 of it in the real time immediately today, but it 0:17:49.880 --> 0:17:51.840 all adds up and I think it will bleed through 0:17:51.960 --> 0:17:54.879 so and then I think when you talk about global 0:17:54.880 --> 0:17:56.880 center bank, a lot of global central banks have eased 0:17:56.880 --> 0:17:59.520 ahead of the FED and more already, right like the 0:17:59.640 --> 0:18:01.560 Bank of Canada has to ease significantly more than the 0:18:01.560 --> 0:18:02.680 FED to this point. 0:18:02.560 --> 0:18:05.160 Brian Jacobson annex Wealth Management out with a note here 0:18:05.240 --> 0:18:08.680 a fifty basis point cut is back on the tables. 0:18:08.720 --> 0:18:10.760 That's one interpretation of kind of some of the data 0:18:10.800 --> 0:18:14.360 points we saw here today. So Christina, you sit here 0:18:14.359 --> 0:18:15.800 with the two year treasure yield at three and a 0:18:15.840 --> 0:18:17.840 half percent. It's not the four percent we had before, 0:18:17.880 --> 0:18:21.200 but still pretty solid. How do you think about treasuries 0:18:21.359 --> 0:18:22.600 versus credit risk? 0:18:22.720 --> 0:18:23.000 Here. 0:18:23.200 --> 0:18:26.280 Yeah, So I think the treasury market, we still think 0:18:26.320 --> 0:18:28.680 that the thematic remains the same, that the curve should 0:18:28.680 --> 0:18:30.760 be steeper, and the front end has done a lot 0:18:30.760 --> 0:18:32.119 of work. As you said, we're all the way to 0:18:32.160 --> 0:18:35.280 three fifty, But does it probably continue to perform here 0:18:35.920 --> 0:18:39.639 because the questions are are we getting just this slow 0:18:39.720 --> 0:18:42.960 down or is there a real risk of breaking in 0:18:43.000 --> 0:18:45.040 the labor market? Right Like you've had a lot of 0:18:45.080 --> 0:18:47.920 mixed data until last month's pay or report. It really 0:18:48.000 --> 0:18:50.080 had just been the soft data that had been weakening, 0:18:50.119 --> 0:18:52.840 and everything else was resilient. The consumer still seems resilient. 0:18:53.359 --> 0:18:56.000 So I think the front end still provides value in 0:18:56.040 --> 0:18:56.679 a portfolio. 0:18:56.720 --> 0:18:57.200 For sure. 0:18:57.240 --> 0:18:59.960 We still like steepener so being short long end bonds. 0:19:00.000 --> 0:19:04.000 I think that's a global phenomenon. And then credit markets 0:19:04.040 --> 0:19:07.719 are tight, and they have been tight. I mean, that 0:19:07.840 --> 0:19:10.520 hasn't stopped money from flowing it And you look at 0:19:10.520 --> 0:19:14.240 the massive pipeline of supply that's come to start September 0:19:14.600 --> 0:19:16.119 well absorbed with ease. 0:19:16.520 --> 0:19:16.879 Thank you. 0:19:17.920 --> 0:19:20.000 I mean, to me, that is the absolute headline is 0:19:20.000 --> 0:19:22.480 the wall of money com money. Lawrence MacDonald, who wrote 0:19:22.480 --> 0:19:26.360 an essay courageous essay on the three years ago, here's. 0:19:26.040 --> 0:19:28.600 My reality, and I think it's unknown. You live this 0:19:28.760 --> 0:19:29.280 every day. 0:19:29.680 --> 0:19:34.920