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Speaker 2: Joining us now.
Speaker 3: Claudius Sam of course for their work at the FED
Speaker 3: for many years and definitive on the American economy. Here
Speaker 3: we are twenty two thousand is the headline number distant
Speaker 3: from the old number of one point fifty being healthy?
Speaker 3: How close did we come to a negative number exchange
Speaker 3: in manufacturing payrolls revision negative actual statistic negative twelve thousand.
Speaker 2: But far more it's about moving forward with a FED.
Speaker 3: Claudius Sam is with us with New Century Advisors, Laudia
Speaker 3: this sets us up even more, is Anaalog and Stephen
Speaker 3: Englander and Claudia Sam have said for this important September
Speaker 3: nine revision. When you see this tepidness including non farm
Speaker 3: three months moving average of twenty nine thousand, how do
Speaker 3: you interpret what we may see with a big negative
Speaker 3: revision September ninth?
Speaker 4: Right, So first I say, just from the data today,
Speaker 4: this ought to be able to convince people with the
Speaker 4: FED who were on the fence about doing a rate cut.
Speaker 4: This really does speak in terms of it's time to
Speaker 4: start adjusting interest rates downward. I think it still fits
Speaker 4: within the This is a risk. You know, there are
Speaker 4: a lot of reasons that job growth could be slowing
Speaker 4: because of labor supply, and it is very consistent to
Speaker 4: see that and the unemployer ate tick up.
Speaker 5: Not you know, it's not jumping up, it's moving up.
Speaker 4: But this really does firm up the case that Powe
Speaker 4: made in Jackson Hole and Chris Waller has been making
Speaker 4: about it's time to start cutting. But I think I
Speaker 4: still think this data is in line with a gradual
Speaker 4: pace of cutting. The data that we will get next
Speaker 4: week on the Annual Revision that is a preliminary estimate
Speaker 4: for the level of employment in March of this year.
Speaker 4: So it really is not going to tell us anything
Speaker 4: about what's been happening in recent months when we've had
Speaker 4: this you know, slowing in job growth, because the policies
Speaker 4: have changed so much since March of this year.
Speaker 5: So it's important information. We'll be watching it.
Speaker 4: But in terms of kind of you know, adjudicating what's
Speaker 4: happening right now in the labor market.
Speaker 5: It's not going to be that helpful.
Speaker 2: All the two year yield almost back to those April
Speaker 2: low yields.
Speaker 6: Yeah, I'm keeping an eye on that, Tom Claudia. To
Speaker 6: the extent that this data today maybe does prompt this
Speaker 6: FED to move later this month, how do you think
Speaker 6: the cadence of their subsequent moves will be for this.
Speaker 5: FED, the cadence is going to come off of the data.
Speaker 4: I think we have to remember we are still an
Speaker 4: environment where inflation is elevated and we are likely to
Speaker 4: see CPI prints that you know, firm up in.
Speaker 5: The coming month.
Speaker 4: So I still think in a best case where the
Speaker 4: economy is just moving along, we're in a slower growth place.
Speaker 4: So this is not, you know, a super place to be,
Speaker 4: but we're probably going to have some push and pull
Speaker 4: of the employment data and the inflation data, and so
Speaker 4: I don't necessarily think we're set up right now for
Speaker 4: a full cutting cycle, but the data will drive on
Speaker 4: this one.
Speaker 3: We welcome you across America around the world. It is
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Speaker 3: for your home as well. Growing each and every day
Speaker 3: somebody can be able to toime. We listened it to
Speaker 3: YouTube in the car. They do it to their cell phone.
Speaker 3: I don't know. I mean I only got an iPhone five,
Speaker 3: so it doesn't it doesn't work. But they do it
Speaker 3: on radio across the nation. Traditional ninety nine one FM,
Speaker 3: Nathan Agar Radio, Good Morning in Washington, Labor Secretary coming up,
Speaker 3: and of course ninety two nine FM in Boston on
Speaker 3: this job sday. Equity sustain pretty much where they were
Speaker 3: two hours ago, the Vics fifteen point zero five, I,
Speaker 3: Paul and I watching that two year yield, really getting
Speaker 3: back to the September twenty four in April twenty five, Low,
Speaker 3: So see where we go from there, Paul.
Speaker 6: So, Claudia, the FED obviously data dependent as we know,
Speaker 6: but now they also have to deal with maybe some
Speaker 6: outside external political pressure. How do you think that's affecting
Speaker 6: this Federal Reserve these days?
Speaker 4: In terms of the decision that they'll make in September,
Speaker 4: it should not be affecting them.
Speaker 5: They're going to look at the data.
Speaker 4: They still have a majority of people on the FMC
Speaker 4: that are you know, adhere to and they all unanimously
Speaker 4: agreed to their updated framework last month, and that's all
Speaker 4: about data and all about looking at these risks, and
Speaker 4: so in terms of the decision, I don't think that
Speaker 4: changes anything one iota. In terms of the concerns in
Speaker 4: and outside of the FED, they are just I mean
Speaker 4: off the charts right now like this, this really the
Speaker 4: FED could be very different FED in not even a
Speaker 4: year from now.
Speaker 3: Okay, Claudia, I got to ask you this question because
Speaker 3: you're probably the only one I know who read cover
Speaker 3: to cover a history of the Federal Reserve Alan Meltzer
Speaker 3: in nineteen thirteen to nineteen fifty one. Did you read
Speaker 3: that entire book.
Speaker 5: It's a very good book.
Speaker 2: It's a very shame.
Speaker 3: She's the only one I know who read like fifteen
Speaker 3: hundred pages. Here's my mail, Okay, my mail is this Tom.
Speaker 3: You idiots, you fancy urban idiots and bow ties. We're
Speaker 3: in recession. How do you interpret, Claudia, the percent of
Speaker 3: America that is living recession right now?
Speaker 4: So you know this is this is a tough one
Speaker 4: and it's really a question not just for the FED.
Speaker 4: You know, there are there are demographic groups that have
Speaker 4: unemployment rates in the best of times that look like
Speaker 4: recessions for other demographic groups, and we have some real
Speaker 4: structural problems and differences in our economy.
Speaker 5: The fence tool with interest rates is a really weak tool.
Speaker 4: So the best thing they can do, and it helps
Speaker 4: everybody and particular those on the margins, is to keep
Speaker 4: the economy as stable as possible, keep inflation low, keep
Speaker 4: unemployment low, you know, and that is their mandate.
Speaker 5: But that's a bigger mandate that goes beyond the Fed.
Speaker 3: Claudia, you're foundational to us. Thank you so much for
Speaker 3: being the bedrock of our job today. Surveillance correction. Claudia,
Speaker 3: when she read Allan Meltzer, it was only eight hundred
Speaker 3: and ten pages. Ah, gotcha, doctor sum Thank you so
Speaker 3: much of Michigan and the Fed and New Century Advised
Speaker 3: his biggest fight ever had with Alan Meltzer.
Speaker 2: He said, time you have to aggregate the economy. Okay,
Speaker 2: you can't. Can we can?
Speaker 3: We security to equities all I think we should. We've
Speaker 3: been doing feast income all morning. The bond market, we're
Speaker 3: looking at the two year come in on the certitude
Speaker 3: of a rate cut thirty year bond four point eight
Speaker 3: one percent. We're bond free, joining us now Amy Wi
Speaker 3: Silverman had a derivative strategy at RBC. Okay, we're partition
Speaker 3: into the halves the AI boom and a lot of
Speaker 3: people we really ugly in this Job's report in slow down,
Speaker 3: recession stagnation. How polarized is the equity market when you
Speaker 3: look at the derivative cross moments right now?
Speaker 2: Is it like thirty stocks and everything else a little bit?
Speaker 7: Yeah, Tom, So you know, it's it's always comes back
Speaker 7: down to that concentration risk. You see that spread between
Speaker 7: equal weighted versus index weighted, and that spread keeps getting wider,
Speaker 7: and I think we keep getting that hope that that
Speaker 7: will narrow. You know, we kind of came in with
Speaker 7: the September scaries, but you know, post this report, I'm
Speaker 7: curious what the market does because we kind of were
Speaker 7: well positioned for this, and I'm curious if we go
Speaker 7: back to everything as it was.
Speaker 3: What's a positioning when you look at SKEW and particularly
Speaker 3: this thing gamma where you know, people are looking at
Speaker 3: the speed of movement.
Speaker 7: So I think this is really important post Liberation Day
Speaker 7: Tom September and October specifically, SKEW super steeps really high
Speaker 7: demand for hedging and term structure really steep. Now we're
Speaker 7: here like we're here, and so my big question is
Speaker 7: do we capitulate first or do investors because to some degree,
Speaker 7: you know, like we were kind of looking through these
Speaker 7: now with these data points and I just think back
Speaker 7: to like one year ago, how similar we felt? Right
Speaker 7: if you think about this data point one year ago,
Speaker 7: and what did the market do since your.
Speaker 2: Parents call you up and we got it right, you didn't.
Speaker 6: So in your marketing and derivatives market, are investors are
Speaker 6: they buying protection? Are they skewing towards more risk position?
Speaker 6: What are they doing these days? What's the sentiment?
Speaker 7: So they were very well set up specifically into this
Speaker 7: tenor they were well hedged. And the one thing we
Speaker 7: learned from April second is that you can be well
Speaker 7: hedged and well monetized, but you can not be right
Speaker 7: on the velocity up. So that's my question. Now, I
Speaker 7: think we kind of protected our left tails. We kind
Speaker 7: of knew this was coming to some degree as well.
Speaker 7: Telegraphed that that non FUM payroll straddle break even was
Speaker 7: was like we five seven percent. It was like a
Speaker 7: nothing burger coming into options. To me, that's interesting as
Speaker 7: the official term. And you know, so that tail has
Speaker 7: been protected, and now the question is if we get
Speaker 7: some sort of knife up, where do we sit on
Speaker 7: the right tail? I think that side has not been
Speaker 7: well protected yet by the same set of folks.
Speaker 6: Does your market care about the fed?
Speaker 2: Independence of the FED?
Speaker 6: Maybe some pressure that the FED maybe getting from the
Speaker 6: executive branch. Does the long term option market that they
Speaker 6: care about?
Speaker 2: That they do?
Speaker 7: And you know, it's interesting if you think about the
Speaker 7: first tantrum the market had, it was mostly around the
Speaker 7: comments Trump made about firing pals. So the market didn't
Speaker 7: like that. Right then we kind of fast forward to
Speaker 7: cook there's less of a reaction, but to me, it
Speaker 7: was like all part of the same reaction. The thing
Speaker 7: that I wonder about is, you know, people kind of
Speaker 7: stopped talking about this Trump taco trade. I wonder if
Speaker 7: we really get severe steepening in the rates market, if
Speaker 7: we can at higher volatility, if he doesn't just step
Speaker 7: back as comments because that's what she has done in
Speaker 7: the past, and he does recognize certain safeguards where he's like,
Speaker 7: you know, I've gone too far and I got to
Speaker 7: step it back.
Speaker 2: On job Zay. We digress to the equity markets.
Speaker 3: We do that with futures pretty much stable off where
Speaker 3: they were two hours ago pre jobs report. We're up
Speaker 3: point seven. Excuse we're up point five on NASDEK one.
Speaker 3: That's where we are right now. Futures up nine, SMP
Speaker 3: futures up nine and aiming with Silverman dazzles us from
Speaker 3: RBC Capital Markets. Okay, trend following the CTAs. I'm looking
Speaker 3: at a very very famous growth successful morning Star five
Speaker 3: star fund and it's getting right up Bucker Stupp near
Speaker 3: two standard deviations on a weekly chart. How extended are
Speaker 3: CTA is? Is trend following now legitimate or is it
Speaker 3: so stochastic that you can't make a bet?
Speaker 7: I definitely think on the margin it's important to watch,
Speaker 7: and as you said, it's kind of getting filled up.
Speaker 7: And at the same time, you know, there's a lot
Speaker 7: of kind of seasonal weakness that you get the September scaries,
Speaker 7: and then on top of that you see retail weakening,
Speaker 7: and I think that to me is why people have
Speaker 7: been very nervous about this month and next month. My
Speaker 7: question about it is Tom is like this has been
Speaker 7: the most well telegraphed potential drawdown in history and and
Speaker 7: so like how much velocity do you get into that
Speaker 7: before it snaps back? Like to me, April second felt
Speaker 7: exactly the same way, and we kind of saw what
Speaker 7: happened there.
Speaker 6: Does your market have a view on valuation? Concern about valuation,
Speaker 6: not worried about it? Like, well, if I have a concern,
Speaker 6: I can hedge it away. How does valuation come into
Speaker 6: your market? The derivator's market?
Speaker 7: You know, I remember being in a client meeting recently
Speaker 7: and we always it's like no client meeting is filled
Speaker 7: until you talk about AI and concentration valuation. And the
Speaker 7: client just said, like, has the market ever really traded
Speaker 7: off because of valuation? So meaning not that it's good
Speaker 7: or bad, but has that actually in and of itself
Speaker 7: been a catalyst the same way that like really strong
Speaker 7: concentration a couple names have been a catalyst. And that's
Speaker 7: the thing about the market is that that's not like
Speaker 7: a specific event risk. It's just something that exists and
Speaker 7: that unless something else perpetuates that that in and of
Speaker 7: itself doesn't cause draw downs or historically.
Speaker 3: You and I kneeled at the altar of Peter Lynch,
Speaker 3: and what he's going to say is, look, every ninety days,
Speaker 3: they show up and they deliver revenue report down the
Speaker 3: income statement, earnings report. Let's modernize it over to free
Speaker 3: cash flow with all the abilities of OURBC. Do you
Speaker 3: see a breaking of the model September thirtieth into the
Speaker 3: October earning season.
Speaker 2: I don't see it.
Speaker 7: I don't think so. And I think this is what
Speaker 7: I mean by like, it has felt very telegraphed, literally
Speaker 7: since April May of this year, that we were going
Speaker 7: to get some sort of draw do some sort of
Speaker 7: September scaries and failure, you know, whatever it is. And
Speaker 7: so my question is, if we've all been so well
Speaker 7: positioned for this and that gets monetized quickly, then what
Speaker 7: happens after that? Are we literally, you know, on your
Speaker 7: iPhone where you get like this day one year ago, like,
Speaker 7: are we just infra a repeat of September sixth, twenty
Speaker 7: twenty four, and what happened the month since then?
Speaker 2: What are you hearing from your clients? You know, your
Speaker 2: shoe box in the room. I mean you can hear
Speaker 2: a pin. There's like quantitative finance prass to shut up,
Speaker 2: don't ask a question. What do you hear from your clients?
Speaker 7: You know, the big question I get asked from them,
Speaker 7: is all the positioning data right now would suggest that
Speaker 7: there's kind of weakness and demand the next few months.
Speaker 7: But the question is, especially on the retail side, has
Speaker 7: there been some sort of tectonic shift where that just
Speaker 7: doesn't apply anymore? And it's really interesting because every time,
Speaker 7: you know, we just had our summer interns. They're all
Speaker 7: gone now. But every time I talk to interns, my
Speaker 7: favorite thing to do is pull them and be like,
Speaker 7: are you buying the market? Are you buying the market?
Speaker 7: Because there is this cohort that we see much more
Speaker 7: frequently in the options market that has not stepped away,
Speaker 7: and I'm very curious if we get some sort of
Speaker 7: stential move if not occurs again thirty seconds.
Speaker 2: Have you talked to Taylor since secret and the engagement?
Speaker 3: No?
Speaker 7: You know, I worry she's not going to tour because
Speaker 7: she's engaged now and she's too busy.
Speaker 5: Like, is she going to tour for shows?
Speaker 2: No, she's not.
Speaker 7: You know, I'm very disappointed in that we got her Cavier.
Speaker 2: Ball from Scully and Scully Wow went over on Park Avenue.
Speaker 2: I mean they have everything, beautiful, guest, what do you
Speaker 2: get them? I mean they have how many houses between
Speaker 2: the two of them?
Speaker 6: A puppy jersey short gut.
Speaker 3: You know to see Amie with Silverman. Thank you, so
Speaker 3: don't get her another caviar ball. We've got that taken
Speaker 3: Amy with Silverman. RBC Capital Markets here were the markets
Speaker 3: pretty much stays just off the shock of a twenty
Speaker 3: two thousand statistic on non farm payrolls four point three
Speaker 3: percent unemployment rate. We need an update from the interactive
Speaker 3: broker studios. The Bloomberg Business Flash on jobs Day, Lisa.
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Speaker 8: So yes, we have a mixed look on Wall Street.
Speaker 8: This is after US got job growth. It cooled considerably
Speaker 8: last month. Unemployment rose to the highest since twenty twenty one.
Speaker 8: So a breakdown the data showed non farm payrolls increased
Speaker 8: twenty two thousand in August. Revision showed employment shrank in June,
Speaker 8: the first payrolls decline since twenty twenty. The job is
Speaker 8: righted ticked up to four point three percent. So now
Speaker 8: we have NAZAC Future is up six ten percent, one
Speaker 8: hundred and fifty five points. S some p Future is
Speaker 8: rising two tens a percent. Down Future is little change,
Speaker 8: down about thirty two points. The two year yield three
Speaker 8: point four to nine percent. That's down nine basis points.
Speaker 8: The yield on the tenure four point zero nine percent,
Speaker 8: and that's down about six basis points. The dollar headed
Speaker 8: for its week is showing this week right now. The
Speaker 8: Bloomberg dollars spot indecks down half a percent. We've got
Speaker 8: oil slipping, WTI crewed down one percent at sixty two dollars.
Speaker 8: A barrel gold on the rise, Comix Gold at three thousand,
Speaker 8: six hundred and thirty four dollars.
Speaker 2: Announce you there, you got it.
Speaker 8: Do that for you.
Speaker 2: That is your Bloomberg business.
Speaker 5: Lash Paul and Tom are remodeling.
Speaker 2: The thirty seven hundred gold. I think you have to.
Speaker 2: I mean, there is nothing stopping this thing. What does
Speaker 2: it do for prices at Tiffany's.
Speaker 3: It can't be good.
Speaker 2: You got to pay up. The talk about elasticity, Yeah, exactly, Lisa, Lisa,
Speaker 2: thank you so much, Lisa Mattaylor.
Speaker 3: The other report, I'm watching NASIK one hundred futures up
Speaker 3: seven tens of a percent all in all, advancing here
Speaker 3: off the jobs report, the vics fifteen point zero seven
Speaker 3: Bloomberg surveillance on this job's day with day after day's
Speaker 3: support from Commonwealth. Commonwealth join over two thousand independent financial advisors.
Speaker 3: They're taking control of their growth with advisor centric support
Speaker 3: and future ready technologies. Grow in your own terms with
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Speaker 3: com to learn how we're killing it. Ken Rogoff, Rebecca Patterson,
Speaker 3: Claudius now Christina KATMANI with a sm Investco. Same question
Speaker 3: I'm asking everybody else. If we get rate cuts, see
Speaker 3: IBC Economics Toronto saying Bank of Canada molding numbers. They
Speaker 3: suggest Bank of Canada's got a cut. If we get
Speaker 3: rate cuts, do we get the same efficacious effect in
Speaker 3: the system and in the bond market.
Speaker 2: Is it a normal rate cut?
Speaker 9: I don't know if it's a normal rate cut or
Speaker 9: what we've historically been used to, because I think we're
Speaker 9: pulling a lot of levers.
Speaker 2: We're kind of back to that.
Speaker 9: Same field of the beginning of the year, that we're
Speaker 9: getting so many policy moves from the administration at once,
Speaker 9: How do we weigh through them? What is the impact
Speaker 9: which hits first? And I think we're in the same thing.
Speaker 9: The market's digesting we've fired the BLS chair where we're
Speaker 9: pulling all of these strings with the FED. The market's
Speaker 9: contemplating FED independence. And I don't think we're seeing all
Speaker 9: of it in the real time immediately today, but it
Speaker 9: all adds up and I think it will bleed through
Speaker 9: so and then I think when you talk about global
Speaker 9: center bank, a lot of global central banks have eased
Speaker 9: ahead of the FED and more already, right like the
Speaker 9: Bank of Canada has to ease significantly more than the
Speaker 9: FED to this point.
Speaker 6: Brian Jacobson annex Wealth Management out with a note here
Speaker 6: a fifty basis point cut is back on the tables.
Speaker 6: That's one interpretation of kind of some of the data
Speaker 6: points we saw here today. So Christina, you sit here
Speaker 6: with the two year treasure yield at three and a
Speaker 6: half percent. It's not the four percent we had before,
Speaker 6: but still pretty solid. How do you think about treasuries
Speaker 6: versus credit risk?
Speaker 2: Here.
Speaker 9: Yeah, So I think the treasury market, we still think
Speaker 9: that the thematic remains the same, that the curve should
Speaker 9: be steeper, and the front end has done a lot
Speaker 9: of work. As you said, we're all the way to
Speaker 9: three fifty, But does it probably continue to perform here
Speaker 9: because the questions are are we getting just this slow
Speaker 9: down or is there a real risk of breaking in
Speaker 9: the labor market? Right Like you've had a lot of
Speaker 9: mixed data until last month's pay or report. It really
Speaker 9: had just been the soft data that had been weakening,
Speaker 9: and everything else was resilient. The consumer still seems resilient.
Speaker 9: So I think the front end still provides value in
Speaker 9: a portfolio.
Speaker 10: For sure.
Speaker 9: We still like steepener so being short long end bonds.
Speaker 9: I think that's a global phenomenon. And then credit markets
Speaker 9: are tight, and they have been tight. I mean, that
Speaker 9: hasn't stopped money from flowing it And you look at
Speaker 9: the massive pipeline of supply that's come to start September
Speaker 9: well absorbed with ease.
Speaker 11: Thank you.
Speaker 3: I mean, to me, that is the absolute headline is
Speaker 3: the wall of money com money. Lawrence MacDonald, who wrote
Speaker 3: an essay courageous essay on the three years ago, here's.
Speaker 2: My reality, and I think it's unknown. You live this
Speaker 2: every day.
Speaker 3: The Bloomberg Total Return aggregate index on price basis has
Speaker 3: advanced sixteen percent from the gloom of.
Speaker 2: A number of years ago. We're easily three quarters.
Speaker 3: Of the way back to the peak before the huge,
Speaker 3: huge collapse that was out there. Kem. Rogoff's given us
Speaker 3: a debt and deficit austerity view the street and investo
Speaker 3: saying you can buy, you can participate in the market.
Speaker 3: How do you manage the fears out there of the
Speaker 3: debt and deficit long.
Speaker 9: Term look, So, I think it goes back to weighing
Speaker 9: those two things within credit. We look at credit across
Speaker 9: the board and we think it looks tight, and so
Speaker 9: if we're going to hold credit paper, we'd rather do
Speaker 9: it in the front end. And I think kind of
Speaker 9: globally where you have to be most concerned because of
Speaker 9: all of all of these things that we're talking inflation risk, credibility, risk, deficits,
Speaker 9: all of these means like I'm not being compensated significantly
Speaker 9: enough even with bonds kind of sitting around five percent
Speaker 9: to own that paper with all of the risks that
Speaker 9: are out there. And then I think the clearest strait
Speaker 9: is still in currencies, right, Like this all speaks to
Speaker 9: a weeker dollar.
Speaker 6: That's where I want to go to the dollar here.
Speaker 6: I mean, I've seen my stock market bounce back. I
Speaker 6: mean a lot of other risk assets that bounce back,
Speaker 6: but the dollar is still eight nine percent below its
Speaker 6: earlier year peak. Is that just because the dollar is
Speaker 6: maybe over bought in the new year with President Trump,
Speaker 6: animal spirits, all that kind of stuff, or is it
Speaker 6: telling us something else?
Speaker 9: I think it's a combo, and I think you have
Speaker 9: to take a step back and say we're coming from
Speaker 9: it ten year dollar bull run, and are some of
Speaker 9: these big thematic things changing for us? It's been all
Speaker 9: of these building blocks all mean a structurally weaker dollar.
Speaker 9: We're talking about tariffs, which are attacks on the consumer.
Speaker 9: We're talking about even again, we've talked a lot about
Speaker 9: this of our people de dollarizing. I mean, people are
Speaker 9: not selling dollar assets because there isn't an alternative to
Speaker 9: a lot of the depth of US markets, certainly in equities,
Speaker 9: but does the marginal next dollar get invested in home
Speaker 9: currency for pensions and accounts like that? I think that
Speaker 9: all still means we had the quick move in the
Speaker 9: first half of the year of the dollar. But that
Speaker 9: theme remains with us when we talk to Global Wall Street.
Speaker 2: Right now. For those of you, hold on two hands
Speaker 2: on the steering wheel if you're driving right now, Chris
Speaker 2: Kinney Camp many of invesco with a clinic. Okay.
Speaker 3: The vanilla spread is the difference in yield between the
Speaker 3: two year and the ten year. That's what the media quotes.
Speaker 3: Most people don't know what the dynamics are. The four
Speaker 3: box out come you can have with two numbers moving
Speaker 3: up and down. Maybe you look at the two year,
Speaker 3: the ten year, the two year, the thirty year. The
Speaker 3: adults like Christina look at the difference in between the
Speaker 3: ten year and the thirty year. Christina, it's a moonshot
Speaker 3: in twenty twenty five. At thirty year bone extending way
Speaker 3: out of this is my Peter Fisher invitation. My thirty
Speaker 3: year yield is extending way out higher than my tenure.
Speaker 3: Is that a kind of thing where it snaps at
Speaker 3: some point or do we just get back to where
Speaker 3: we were three four years ago.
Speaker 9: Steps which way, steps back, or snaps further Bringay.
Speaker 2: That's a dynamic of that looks shot. Yeah, steepness.
Speaker 5: I mean, we've steepened a lot this year.
Speaker 9: We've certainly steepen more in cash and treasury space than
Speaker 9: in the swap market. I think swapscurves are still kind
Speaker 9: of not kind of giving that. But if you take
Speaker 9: a step back of historically you talk about curves that
Speaker 9: are two hundred three hundred basis points, when you talk
Speaker 9: about two tens and we're still not there is.
Speaker 2: There a road? I'm not back to normal.
Speaker 9: No, I mean, and again you're coming off post GFC
Speaker 9: zero lower bound, this different dynamic. So are are there
Speaker 9: perhaps things that are different that you don't get to
Speaker 9: a three hundred four hundred basis point stepness? But can
Speaker 9: you be sleeper?
Speaker 6: Sure?
Speaker 2: How does a bond person lift the stock market?
Speaker 3: She's single handed with the market right now, Nasak one
Speaker 3: hundred up eight tenths of a percent because of Christina
Speaker 3: cat Minnie.
Speaker 2: Thank you so much, Christina.
Speaker 3: Really treasure having you here on job day to go
Speaker 3: from Rebecca Patterson to Claudia Sam Christina cat Menu.
Speaker 2: There it's adults on Global Wall Street. Stay with us.
Speaker 3: More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live
Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on
Speaker 1: Applecarplay and Android out all with the Bloomberg Business Up,
Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 3: My book of the summer hugely successful for Ken Rogoff,
Speaker 3: was Our Dollar Your Problem.
Speaker 2: I put it out last night.
Speaker 3: Is a summary along with Rick Atkinson's wonderful second volume
Speaker 3: on the American Revolution, The Rogue offf Revolution, as he
Speaker 3: has done with Carmen Reinhardt a decade ago and through
Speaker 3: his career, is to consider our debt, our deficit, our
Speaker 3: battle with austerity. Professor Rogoff joined some Harvard this morning. Ken,
Speaker 3: Thank you so much. Congratulations on the book. Give us
Speaker 3: an anecdote, Ken of the success of the book. I
Speaker 3: want every economic student to read it.
Speaker 2: Are they?
Speaker 11: Oh, as people are starting to read it, they're really
Speaker 11: enjoying it. I'm getting all kinds of emails, letters, not
Speaker 11: to mention countless reviews where people has sort of been
Speaker 11: surprised that it's so fun to read.
Speaker 2: It's great.
Speaker 3: At Lisa noted the grace slick is in the early pages.
Speaker 3: You's got jes in there early. Okay, Ken project Syndicate,
Speaker 3: A blistering essay. Foreign Affairs Magazine, a blistering essay. This
Speaker 3: time is different. Are we finally unraveling our debt and
Speaker 3: our deficit to crisis?
Speaker 11: Well, in my book, I thought it would take five
Speaker 11: to seven years.
Speaker 2: On the current track, we are.
Speaker 11: I think Trump, as you said earlier, as an accelerant.
Speaker 2: You know, it's certainly not a sure thing.
Speaker 11: A lot of it goes around what are the underlying
Speaker 11: interest rates? If we go back to the zero interest rates,
Speaker 11: real interest rates of the twenty tens up through twenty
Speaker 11: twenty two in the pandemic, Well, sure, that is a
Speaker 11: free lunch. I mean you can spend and you basically
Speaker 11: don't have to pay anything. That's what all the I
Speaker 11: call them antiosterians were absolutely convinced. And some very smart
Speaker 11: people you had them on your program, followed this. I
Speaker 11: mean there was Larry Summer's secular stagnation. He's very nuanced
Speaker 11: about it. To be fair, Olivier Blonchard, president of the
Speaker 11: American Economic Association, said we shouldn't look at debt anymore.
Speaker 11: Paul Krugman wrote constantly about this, but what do you know?
Speaker 11: Interest rates have gone up? And the big question is
Speaker 11: are have we normalized or is this just something after
Speaker 11: the pandemic? I think for many reasons. If you look
Speaker 11: at the history of real interest rates, they're probably about
Speaker 11: where they're going to be for a long time, in
Speaker 11: which case we are in trouble. So that's a long
Speaker 11: winded answer, but it's really about interest rates, not just
Speaker 11: about dead I want to get to sit on interest rates.
Speaker 3: Paul's got eight questions he wants to jump in here.
Speaker 3: But the answer, Ken Roguff is I'm auditing X ten
Speaker 3: with Jason Furman, so I did a fancy logarithmic thirty
Speaker 3: year bun We get to the Ken rogan Off six
Speaker 3: percent thirty year bond, Paul late next year, like autumn
Speaker 3: of the next year. Ken, do you still model a
Speaker 3: six percent yield for the United States of America?
Speaker 11: Well, I think a six percent ten year treasury is
Speaker 11: more likely than a one in three quarters treasury that
Speaker 11: we had for a long time.
Speaker 2: Absolutely.
Speaker 11: I mean, it's very hard to predict interest rates, but
Speaker 11: I think there is likely to go up as down.
Speaker 2: Professor.
Speaker 6: I've been in this market since for thirty five years,
Speaker 6: and we've been talking about the national debt and deficits
Speaker 6: every single year, yet nothing changes. And I guess I've
Speaker 6: been told by others that say, hey, as long as
Speaker 6: people continue to buy our.
Speaker 2: Treasury bonds, we're okay.
Speaker 6: How do you think about that?
Speaker 11: The question is at what price? We've gone through this
Speaker 11: period where interest rates have gone down and down and down,
Speaker 11: and our death you know, has gone up from maybe
Speaker 11: thirty percent of GDP in nineteen eighty to sixty percent
Speaker 11: to ninety percent to over one hundred and twenty percent,
Speaker 11: and the interest rates had been coming down until they didn't.
Speaker 11: And if you look at history, there have been long
Speaker 11: periods where interest rates were rising where they're in decline,
Speaker 11: and I think they're in a period where they're normalizing.
Speaker 11: So people were too focused on debt and not looky
Speaker 11: enough at well, what's the interest on the debt?
Speaker 2: That's what's changed.
Speaker 6: What do you what would you if you were sitting
Speaker 6: in Congress and you had a couple of folks on
Speaker 6: both sides of the aisle with you, what would you
Speaker 6: suggest they do to address this issue?
Speaker 11: Well, why don't you at least give a try to
Speaker 11: running a two to three percent deficit instead of a
Speaker 11: six or seven percent deficit. You know, while you organize.
Speaker 11: I mean, you know, the solutions are well known. You
Speaker 11: could improve the tax system, their ways to make it
Speaker 11: more efficient. We don't have a very efficient system would
Speaker 11: be the understatement.
Speaker 2: Of the year.
Speaker 11: They are all kinds of suggestions for improving growth, but
Speaker 11: I think sort of a sober thing to do would
Speaker 11: be to at least not run what we call a
Speaker 11: primary deficit, means above and beyond the interest payments, which
Speaker 11: right now are about three percent of GDP.
Speaker 3: I just want to drop in here with an important
Speaker 3: announcement separate from ken Rogoff, and we're thrilled you're listening
Speaker 3: to us across the nation today and indeed around the
Speaker 3: world and in a fractious United Kingdom. Angelo Rayner resigns
Speaker 3: is US Deputy Prime Minister. I'm not going to go
Speaker 3: into the nuances because I don't understand it, but there
Speaker 3: has been an uproar and the Labor Party wrapped around
Speaker 3: the Deputy Prime minister. She resigns and also will resign
Speaker 3: various posts at the Labor Party as well. So that's
Speaker 3: breaking news in the United Kingdom. What perspective for you
Speaker 3: as we can we continue with Kenneth Rogoff, Paul, Why
Speaker 3: don't you pick it up with professor at real.
Speaker 6: Growth, so Ken, as we think about just kind of
Speaker 6: global economic growth here and we've got we're now in
Speaker 6: a world of terrafs, reciprocal terrorffs, all kinds of barriers
Speaker 6: going up the global trade.
Speaker 2: As you step back and.
Speaker 6: Look at it from a thirty thousand foot level, what
Speaker 6: does that mean to you for kind of global economic growth?
Speaker 11: Well, I think near term, you know, the growth has
Speaker 11: held up better than anyone would have guessed with all
Speaker 11: this noise going on. That's been a surprise. Now we
Speaker 11: may find you're getting the labor data today and you
Speaker 11: know it wasn't as good as we thought it was,
Speaker 11: and it's hard to know what's going on. I might interject,
Speaker 11: you know, labor jobsday has always been the big number
Speaker 11: because it's the most reliable number that we get sort
Speaker 11: of in real time.
Speaker 2: Maybe now and.
Speaker 11: Going forward, it's not going to be considered as reliable.
Speaker 2: And I don't know what we're going to look at.
Speaker 2: Can I look at your book?
Speaker 3: And I want to bring this back to a summary
Speaker 3: of all the crises across Ken Rogoff's The Young Academics
Speaker 3: is just it's amazing shows up for a job interviews
Speaker 3: in a polyester suit? How did that go?
Speaker 2: Ken? Rogoff?
Speaker 3: You showed up in early in the book Young Rogueff,
Speaker 3: chess guy shows up in a polyester suit?
Speaker 2: How did that go? Ken?
Speaker 11: It was my Rhodes scholarship interview, and I had just
Speaker 11: never worn a suit.
Speaker 2: I never bought a suit. I didn't know what it
Speaker 2: looked like.
Speaker 11: So I had this sort of it was really beautiful colors,
Speaker 11: you know. I looked like I was probably some kind
Speaker 11: of entertainer. And everyone who was else was wearing gray
Speaker 11: blue suits. And I tie it in later to when
Speaker 11: I go to Poland playing in a chess tournament, and
Speaker 11: I'm describing how they their suits are awful because they have,
Speaker 11: you know, centralized planning, and they're looking at my so
Speaker 11: and saying, oh my gosh.
Speaker 2: Do all Americans have such great suits? Can I look
Speaker 2: at Ardella?
Speaker 3: Your problem speaks of crisis just as a general statement,
Speaker 3: and I'll let you work off it. How close are
Speaker 3: we to the collective fears of global Wall Street of
Speaker 3: August nineteen ninety eight, the unraveling of various em crises Ecuador, Mexico,
Speaker 3: and the rest or something tangible like the IMF bailout
Speaker 3: of the UK many decades ago.
Speaker 11: Well, there are lots of small countries in crisis. In fact,
Speaker 11: way more than in a long time. I mean, the
Speaker 11: World Bank reported that almost half the developing and low
Speaker 11: income countries were basically in default. We have the Sri Lankas,
Speaker 11: there's always Argentina, Lebanon. I mean, there's all kinds of
Speaker 11: countries that are in trouble. I should say Argentina is
Speaker 11: doing much better now, but of course it has a
Speaker 11: pretty big debt problem. Those often are the Canara and
Speaker 11: the coal mine for when something larger happens. If you
Speaker 11: go back to the nineteen eighty three debt crisis, that
Speaker 11: was really you know, the Latin American debt crisis the
Speaker 11: last decade. Actually, if you go earlier before Mexico, Brazil
Speaker 11: and everyone else, there were a lot of small countries.
Speaker 11: So when you have interest rates high, this much volatility
Speaker 11: going on, very high debt everywhere, it's you know, like
Speaker 11: a forest that's very dry and something can set it off.
Speaker 2: But you know, I don't know what it would be.
Speaker 11: It would not surprise me if we did have a
Speaker 11: major country run into big problems, which could run anywhere
Speaker 11: from you know, a Latin American country to Japan over
Speaker 11: the coming year.
Speaker 6: Ken given kind of that uncertainty global uncertainty, this federal
Speaker 6: reserve is really in a tight spot here. And not
Speaker 6: to mention the political pressures on this federal reserve, what
Speaker 6: do you make of the kind of how the Feds
Speaker 6: kind of been working here the last several months and
Speaker 6: maybe what it'll do over the coming.
Speaker 11: Well, the big call is actually not whether to take
Speaker 11: the SHORTERM interest rate down half a percent or a
Speaker 11: quarter percent or when to do it.
Speaker 2: The big call is where are we headed.
Speaker 11: If we're headed back to these very low interest rates,
Speaker 11: which some very smart people think, I mean, this is
Speaker 11: a debate, then they have a lot of room to
Speaker 11: cut without triggering inflation.
Speaker 2: They'd sort of be moving the market to where it
Speaker 2: should be.
Speaker 11: On the other hand, if that's not the case, which
Speaker 11: I believe and I think by enlarge the Fed staff
Speaker 11: is very skeptical of the lower forever review, then they
Speaker 11: need to be cautious. It's so hard to read the data.
Speaker 11: The combination of Trump, AI and everything makes it very
Speaker 11: hard to know what's going on.
Speaker 3: You can comment, honey, our singing, and this is of
Speaker 3: course working with Jorgensen at Harvard and many other giants
Speaker 3: on I'm going to call it for the dynamics of productivity.
Speaker 3: And there's a school can down the street where I
Speaker 3: think they came up with total factor productivity.
Speaker 2: I can't remember quite, but.
Speaker 3: On productivity, the great theme of our liberal state is
Speaker 3: productivity and technology to the rescue.
Speaker 2: Do you observe that or is that over emphasized? Well,
Speaker 2: it's certainly not overemphasized. It's very important.
Speaker 11: It's sort of hard to know how to make it
Speaker 11: come and how to make it go away. I think
Speaker 11: Wall Street obviously has been very excited about AI their
Speaker 11: air pockets, where the productivity has been very clear. I
Speaker 11: do think some of what we're seeing in the high
Speaker 11: Wall Street prices reflects labor share falling, profits and businesses
Speaker 11: share rising, which means it isn't growth.
Speaker 2: It isn't all growth.
Speaker 11: Some of it's just a reallocation that has a very
Speaker 11: different political implications.
Speaker 2: Of course, Ken, congratulations on my book of the summer.
Speaker 2: I just can't say enough, folks, whatever smart.
Speaker 3: Ale of kid you've got, I don't care how they're smart,
Speaker 3: Like rogueoff, they're dumb Liking the answer is cover to
Speaker 3: cover two hundred pages.
Speaker 2: Our dollar, your problem.
Speaker 3: It is the arc of ken Rogoff's career and the
Speaker 3: view for it as well.
Speaker 2: Kenneth Rogoff, Harvard University. Stay with us.
Speaker 3: More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us Live
Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on Apple,
Speaker 1: Karplay and Android Otto.
Speaker 2: Join us selling US jobs for twenty summer.
Speaker 3: You joined us with all of her work at Bessemer,
Speaker 3: Trusted Bridgewater and at the Council on Foreign Relations. Here's
Speaker 3: what I want to know, but dying to talk to you.
Speaker 3: How efficacious will FED rate cuts be? Or is our
Speaker 3: economy terrasenal in such a jumble that a series of
Speaker 3: quarter point cuts won't provide the salvation.
Speaker 2: We're used to.
Speaker 10: Good morning, and that is exactly my fear. So when
Speaker 10: we hear members of the administration saying rate cuts are needed,
Speaker 10: the housing market will swing. Those were Trump's words were
Speaker 10: in a different regime. Inflation running core PCE, running it
Speaker 10: close to three percent instead of one percent or one
Speaker 10: and a half percent. We had extremely low inflation the
Speaker 10: last twenty ish years, and so the FED didn't have
Speaker 10: to worry about that. It could focus on the job
Speaker 10: side of its mandate. So when it cut, you didn't
Speaker 10: worry about inflation getting out of control pushing up the
Speaker 10: long end.
Speaker 2: Of the yield curve.
Speaker 10: You just gave liquidity to the market and you help
Speaker 10: create jobs. Today is different. If we cut, yes we're
Speaker 10: going to provide liquidity. Yes, that helps the discount rate
Speaker 10: for equities, but it doesn't necessarily translate into a swinging
Speaker 10: housing market. I think the risk goes the other way.
Speaker 6: So as we step back here, I mean, what do
Speaker 6: you think the Fed is really focusing on the labor
Speaker 6: market inflation, trying to balance it makings front and center.
Speaker 10: Yeah, I mean they are trying to balance it. They're
Speaker 10: very worried about inflation and inflation expectations rising. It was
Speaker 10: bad enough the hit they took after missing it a
Speaker 10: couple of years ago. They don't want to do that twice.
Speaker 10: At the same time, there is more and more data
Speaker 10: coming out suggesting the labor market's cooling, and what they
Speaker 10: want to avoid is that hockey stick moment that we've
Speaker 10: seen historically, when you know, slow, moderate job reductions become
Speaker 10: much bigger ones, and that could happen. I don't say
Speaker 10: it will, but that's so they're trying to balance that.
Speaker 10: I think a rate cut this month, no harm, no foul,
Speaker 10: one hundred and forty basis points by the end of
Speaker 10: next year is different.
Speaker 2: Unemployment rate.
Speaker 6: I mean, you know the consensus here, Rebecca's four point
Speaker 6: three percent. It's a little bit higher than last month,
Speaker 6: but I don't know, it still feels like full employment
Speaker 6: to me. What do you think the number is that
Speaker 6: Fed's looking at.
Speaker 10: Yeah, the big story with unemployment rate is that it's
Speaker 10: and Powell talked about this at Jackson Hole last month,
Speaker 10: is that you have fewer net new jobs being added,
Speaker 10: but you also have less supply of labor, and so
Speaker 10: those two things together are helping to keep the unemployment
Speaker 10: rate relatively flat.
Speaker 2: So because you.
Speaker 10: Normally don't see this huge decrease in labor supply that's
Speaker 10: coming from the immigration deportations and lack of new immigrants,
Speaker 10: that's usually not a factor. So a non employment rate
Speaker 10: goes up, it goes up. We know what that means today. Again,
Speaker 10: we're in a different regime.
Speaker 6: So as we step back here, put it all together.
Speaker 6: When you talk to investors. How much risk do you
Speaker 6: think they want to take out there when they think
Speaker 6: about all this cross winds out there and geopolitical issues,
Speaker 6: and what's the risk appetite? What's the sentiment out there?
Speaker 10: I mean with equity markets, earnings beat a low bar,
Speaker 10: but they beat right and stocks are near all time
Speaker 10: highs now. I think a lot of that is retail investors.
Speaker 10: I think a lot of that still is investors who
Speaker 10: want exposure to the more structural trade themes like AI beneficiaries,
Speaker 10: global defense, and infrastructure.
Speaker 2: But that is still.
Speaker 10: Creating wealth for consumers which allows them to keep spending.
Speaker 10: So I think the risk appetite is there. But I
Speaker 10: think gold is sending us a signal up thirty five
Speaker 10: percent year to date. You know, I worry that we're
Speaker 10: going to have a Brexit moment, that everything is fine, fine, fine,
Speaker 10: and then suddenly it's not. And that's what we saw
Speaker 10: in twenty sixteen when the referendum was announced in February
Speaker 10: till the vote in June, UK markets were commcomcom and
Speaker 10: then June twenty third we got the vote and suddenly
Speaker 10: people said, oh this is actually real, and everything collapsed.
Speaker 2: So we got a technological revolution.
Speaker 3: I was busting Ken Rogoff's chops at the guys down
Speaker 3: at MIT got it right.
Speaker 2: High tech at Harvard is you know, can we get
Speaker 2: a defenseman to play hockey?
Speaker 3: So, Rebecca, the bottom line is we've got an ambiguity here,
Speaker 3: which you studied your expert at.
Speaker 2: And then if rates go up it's ambiguous, maybe we
Speaker 2: do okay.
Speaker 3: But if there's this huge political effort of rates going down,
Speaker 3: what is the ambiguity? What do our listeners and viewers
Speaker 3: have to look one way or the other way.
Speaker 10: So rates going down in part because of a politicized
Speaker 10: fed to me means yield steepening continues. So the short
Speaker 10: end goes down of the curve, but the ten year,
Speaker 10: the thirty year treasury yields go up. That undermines the
Speaker 10: housing market, it undermines auto loans. It's going to be
Speaker 10: something that hurts the consumer. So I think the AI
Speaker 10: story I wrote about this at CFR's website earlier this week.
Speaker 10: It's not just AI hurting jobs next year, it's AI
Speaker 10: investments companies must make that are increasing their costs. They
Speaker 10: need to offset that because they're keeping a close eye
Speaker 10: on budgets right now, and how do you offset that
Speaker 10: is personnel. So I think AI directly and indirectly is
Speaker 10: going to lead us to more job cuts next year
Speaker 10: at the same time that the curve is steepening.
Speaker 2: Rebeccam Partison, thank you so much. I stay with us.
Speaker 3: More from Bloomberg's Surveillance coming up to this.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us Live
Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern. Listen on
Speaker 1: Applecarplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app, or
Speaker 1: watch us Live on YouTube.
Speaker 2: She returns Lisa Manteo with the newspapers.
Speaker 8: Good morning, Good morning, all right, so we've been hearing
Speaker 8: about this big UFC cage match right taking place at
Speaker 8: the White House South Lawn. Well, the Wall Street Journal
Speaker 8: has a few more details about it. They say President
Speaker 8: Trump's owner, Ivanka Trump, she actually practices Brazilian jiu jitsu.
Speaker 8: She is a UFC fan. She's going to be part
Speaker 8: of the planning process. Lasers and fireworks are going to
Speaker 8: light up the sky. It was supposed to be fourth
Speaker 8: of July, but yeah, too many conflicts obviously, so it's
Speaker 8: going to be sometime in June, ahead of it. They're
Speaker 8: going to have a lot of days of UFC events,
Speaker 8: festivities on the National Wall, mall, autograph sessions, things like that.
Speaker 8: Fighter wighans a press conference plan to be held at
Speaker 8: the steps of the Lincoln Memorial. Fighters could be warming
Speaker 8: up in the White House. So this is going to
Speaker 8: be huge. It is just a big event, and UFC
Speaker 8: has been all you know in the headlines.
Speaker 2: It's a big thing.
Speaker 8: We've heard a lot about UFC and the growing popularity,
Speaker 8: popularity of the sport.
Speaker 2: And the White House is hell.
Speaker 8: You know, tennis matches, t ball fields, pick up basketball games,
Speaker 8: but nothing like to this size. Give people in your household,
Speaker 8: I do, I do, yes, And it's going to bring
Speaker 8: up a whole conversation for another day about where to
Speaker 8: watch it.
Speaker 2: How big is Connor McGregor. Is he like a ginormous steal?
Speaker 3: Uh?
Speaker 8: Yeah, he doesn't fight as much anymore. He's become like
Speaker 8: this movie star in a way too, But it is,
Speaker 8: It is huge and a lot of people.
Speaker 2: Follow it, and yeah, I love your saint, Pierre.
Speaker 8: I'm more of a boxing person, but that's okay, okay.
Speaker 8: So NFL season kicked off last night. The Eagles beat
Speaker 8: the Boys, right. But for the first time ever. What's
Speaker 8: different is that NFL fans could watch every in market
Speaker 8: game on their TVs without pay TV subscription, So that
Speaker 8: was a big thing. The question is, now, how did
Speaker 8: you watch the game right cable streaming?
Speaker 5: What did you do?
Speaker 8: So Business Insider clenched the numbers to see what was
Speaker 8: a better option, and they say cutting the cord would
Speaker 8: only save you a tiny bit cash. Okay, so there's
Speaker 8: a new analysis. So if you subscribe to every streamer
Speaker 8: that carries pro football, you would only save ready a
Speaker 8: dollar and three cents.
Speaker 2: Am there you go? Is it worth it? That's all
Speaker 2: the last decade. Yeah, because you listened to it. Okay.
Speaker 8: So NFL fans, okay, here's what you knew. You would
Speaker 8: need Paramount plus Fox one to watch the in market
Speaker 8: Sunday afternoon games on CBS and Fox. Then you need
Speaker 8: Peacock to watch NBC's Sunday Night Football. Then you need
Speaker 8: the ESPN app to carry Monday night football. Amazon Prime
Speaker 8: Video carries most Thursday games. So together, that's just about
Speaker 8: seventy eight dollars if you want all that and have
Speaker 8: to manage all those subscriptions.
Speaker 2: This is progress, I guess that's what you're telling me.
Speaker 6: I having gown up in the cable TV world, I
Speaker 6: don't get it.
Speaker 8: It's just confusing, Like you want to watch the game?
Speaker 2: Where do you go? What I noticed in the house
Speaker 2: is people are watching less TV. That's the immovable fact. Yeah,
Speaker 2: they're just watching less TV. That's what I say.
Speaker 11: Just stream it.
Speaker 8: Yes, okay, So this is a review from Bloomberg's Top
Speaker 8: Shelf Society. A bottle what they call is one of
Speaker 8: the most fun vodka flavors to ever cross their desk.
Speaker 8: How do we get transferred to this department?
Speaker 2: What do they drink? Work?
Speaker 8: It is pizza flavored vodka. It's from Rhode Islands. It's
Speaker 8: Go Spirits. Costs about thirty bucks.
Speaker 2: Okay.
Speaker 8: They say this one did a disappoint because it has
Speaker 8: this big tomato we scent regino forward flavor, mouth watering,
Speaker 8: garliky exhale. It's also made with mozzarella, which is infused
Speaker 8: at the end. So they say, yeah, you know what
Speaker 8: it does caste like a slice of pizza. So you
Speaker 8: can use it in yes, a bloody mary, but maybe
Speaker 8: your next martini, your next Martin pizza.
Speaker 6: I love vodka, so but I can't put them together.
Speaker 6: Don't put them together now, all right, least tell you
Speaker 6: with the newspapers.
Speaker 2: Thank you so much.
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,
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