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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern

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Speaker 1: Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts,

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Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Joining us now.

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Speaker 3: Claudius Sam of course for their work at the FED

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Speaker 3: for many years and definitive on the American economy. Here

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Speaker 3: we are twenty two thousand is the headline number distant

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Speaker 3: from the old number of one point fifty being healthy?

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Speaker 3: How close did we come to a negative number exchange

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Speaker 3: in manufacturing payrolls revision negative actual statistic negative twelve thousand.

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Speaker 2: But far more it's about moving forward with a FED.

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Speaker 3: Claudius Sam is with us with New Century Advisors, Laudia

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Speaker 3: this sets us up even more, is Anaalog and Stephen

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Speaker 3: Englander and Claudia Sam have said for this important September

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Speaker 3: nine revision. When you see this tepidness including non farm

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Speaker 3: three months moving average of twenty nine thousand, how do

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Speaker 3: you interpret what we may see with a big negative

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Speaker 3: revision September ninth?

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Speaker 4: Right, So first I say, just from the data today,

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Speaker 4: this ought to be able to convince people with the

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Speaker 4: FED who were on the fence about doing a rate cut.

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Speaker 4: This really does speak in terms of it's time to

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Speaker 4: start adjusting interest rates downward. I think it still fits

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Speaker 4: within the This is a risk. You know, there are

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Speaker 4: a lot of reasons that job growth could be slowing

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Speaker 4: because of labor supply, and it is very consistent to

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Speaker 4: see that and the unemployer ate tick up.

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Speaker 5: Not you know, it's not jumping up, it's moving up.

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Speaker 4: But this really does firm up the case that Powe

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Speaker 4: made in Jackson Hole and Chris Waller has been making

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Speaker 4: about it's time to start cutting. But I think I

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Speaker 4: still think this data is in line with a gradual

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Speaker 4: pace of cutting. The data that we will get next

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Speaker 4: week on the Annual Revision that is a preliminary estimate

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Speaker 4: for the level of employment in March of this year.

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Speaker 4: So it really is not going to tell us anything

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Speaker 4: about what's been happening in recent months when we've had

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Speaker 4: this you know, slowing in job growth, because the policies

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Speaker 4: have changed so much since March of this year.

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Speaker 5: So it's important information. We'll be watching it.

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Speaker 4: But in terms of kind of you know, adjudicating what's

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Speaker 4: happening right now in the labor market.

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Speaker 5: It's not going to be that helpful.

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Speaker 2: All the two year yield almost back to those April

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Speaker 2: low yields.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, I'm keeping an eye on that, Tom Claudia. To

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Speaker 6: the extent that this data today maybe does prompt this

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Speaker 6: FED to move later this month, how do you think

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Speaker 6: the cadence of their subsequent moves will be for this.

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Speaker 5: FED, the cadence is going to come off of the data.

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Speaker 4: I think we have to remember we are still an

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Speaker 4: environment where inflation is elevated and we are likely to

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Speaker 4: see CPI prints that you know, firm up in.

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Speaker 5: The coming month.

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Speaker 4: So I still think in a best case where the

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Speaker 4: economy is just moving along, we're in a slower growth place.

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Speaker 4: So this is not, you know, a super place to be,

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Speaker 4: but we're probably going to have some push and pull

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Speaker 4: of the employment data and the inflation data, and so

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Speaker 4: I don't necessarily think we're set up right now for

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Speaker 4: a full cutting cycle, but the data will drive on

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Speaker 4: this one.

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Speaker 3: We welcome you across America around the world. It is

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Speaker 3: Bloomberg Surveillance on YouTube. Subscribe to Bloomberg Podcast for your office,

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Speaker 3: for your home as well. Growing each and every day

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Speaker 3: somebody can be able to toime. We listened it to

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Speaker 3: YouTube in the car. They do it to their cell phone.

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Speaker 3: I don't know. I mean I only got an iPhone five,

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Speaker 3: so it doesn't it doesn't work. But they do it

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Speaker 3: on radio across the nation. Traditional ninety nine one FM,

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Speaker 3: Nathan Agar Radio, Good Morning in Washington, Labor Secretary coming up,

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Speaker 3: and of course ninety two nine FM in Boston on

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Speaker 3: this job sday. Equity sustain pretty much where they were

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Speaker 3: two hours ago, the Vics fifteen point zero five, I,

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Speaker 3: Paul and I watching that two year yield, really getting

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Speaker 3: back to the September twenty four in April twenty five, Low,

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Speaker 3: So see where we go from there, Paul.

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Speaker 6: So, Claudia, the FED obviously data dependent as we know,

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Speaker 6: but now they also have to deal with maybe some

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Speaker 6: outside external political pressure. How do you think that's affecting

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Speaker 6: this Federal Reserve these days?

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Speaker 4: In terms of the decision that they'll make in September,

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Speaker 4: it should not be affecting them.

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Speaker 5: They're going to look at the data.

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Speaker 4: They still have a majority of people on the FMC

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Speaker 4: that are you know, adhere to and they all unanimously

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Speaker 4: agreed to their updated framework last month, and that's all

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Speaker 4: about data and all about looking at these risks, and

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Speaker 4: so in terms of the decision, I don't think that

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Speaker 4: changes anything one iota. In terms of the concerns in

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Speaker 4: and outside of the FED, they are just I mean

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Speaker 4: off the charts right now like this, this really the

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Speaker 4: FED could be very different FED in not even a

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Speaker 4: year from now.

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Speaker 3: Okay, Claudia, I got to ask you this question because

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Speaker 3: you're probably the only one I know who read cover

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Speaker 3: to cover a history of the Federal Reserve Alan Meltzer

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Speaker 3: in nineteen thirteen to nineteen fifty one. Did you read

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Speaker 3: that entire book.

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Speaker 5: It's a very good book.

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Speaker 2: It's a very shame.

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Speaker 3: She's the only one I know who read like fifteen

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Speaker 3: hundred pages. Here's my mail, Okay, my mail is this Tom.

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Speaker 3: You idiots, you fancy urban idiots and bow ties. We're

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Speaker 3: in recession. How do you interpret, Claudia, the percent of

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Speaker 3: America that is living recession right now?

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Speaker 4: So you know this is this is a tough one

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Speaker 4: and it's really a question not just for the FED.

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Speaker 4: You know, there are there are demographic groups that have

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Speaker 4: unemployment rates in the best of times that look like

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Speaker 4: recessions for other demographic groups, and we have some real

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Speaker 4: structural problems and differences in our economy.

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Speaker 5: The fence tool with interest rates is a really weak tool.

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Speaker 4: So the best thing they can do, and it helps

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Speaker 4: everybody and particular those on the margins, is to keep

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Speaker 4: the economy as stable as possible, keep inflation low, keep

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Speaker 4: unemployment low, you know, and that is their mandate.

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Speaker 5: But that's a bigger mandate that goes beyond the Fed.

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Speaker 3: Claudia, you're foundational to us. Thank you so much for

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Speaker 3: being the bedrock of our job today. Surveillance correction. Claudia,

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Speaker 3: when she read Allan Meltzer, it was only eight hundred

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Speaker 3: and ten pages. Ah, gotcha, doctor sum Thank you so

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Speaker 3: much of Michigan and the Fed and New Century Advised

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Speaker 3: his biggest fight ever had with Alan Meltzer.

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Speaker 2: He said, time you have to aggregate the economy. Okay,

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Speaker 2: you can't. Can we can?

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Speaker 3: We security to equities all I think we should. We've

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Speaker 3: been doing feast income all morning. The bond market, we're

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Speaker 3: looking at the two year come in on the certitude

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Speaker 3: of a rate cut thirty year bond four point eight

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Speaker 3: one percent. We're bond free, joining us now Amy Wi

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Speaker 3: Silverman had a derivative strategy at RBC. Okay, we're partition

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Speaker 3: into the halves the AI boom and a lot of

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Speaker 3: people we really ugly in this Job's report in slow down,

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Speaker 3: recession stagnation. How polarized is the equity market when you

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Speaker 3: look at the derivative cross moments right now?

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Speaker 2: Is it like thirty stocks and everything else a little bit?

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Speaker 7: Yeah, Tom, So you know, it's it's always comes back

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Speaker 7: down to that concentration risk. You see that spread between

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Speaker 7: equal weighted versus index weighted, and that spread keeps getting wider,

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Speaker 7: and I think we keep getting that hope that that

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Speaker 7: will narrow. You know, we kind of came in with

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Speaker 7: the September scaries, but you know, post this report, I'm

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Speaker 7: curious what the market does because we kind of were

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Speaker 7: well positioned for this, and I'm curious if we go

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Speaker 7: back to everything as it was.

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Speaker 3: What's a positioning when you look at SKEW and particularly

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Speaker 3: this thing gamma where you know, people are looking at

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Speaker 3: the speed of movement.

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Speaker 7: So I think this is really important post Liberation Day

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Speaker 7: Tom September and October specifically, SKEW super steeps really high

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Speaker 7: demand for hedging and term structure really steep. Now we're

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Speaker 7: here like we're here, and so my big question is

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Speaker 7: do we capitulate first or do investors because to some degree,

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Speaker 7: you know, like we were kind of looking through these

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Speaker 7: now with these data points and I just think back

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Speaker 7: to like one year ago, how similar we felt? Right

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Speaker 7: if you think about this data point one year ago,

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Speaker 7: and what did the market do since your.

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Speaker 2: Parents call you up and we got it right, you didn't.

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Speaker 6: So in your marketing and derivatives market, are investors are

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Speaker 6: they buying protection? Are they skewing towards more risk position?

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Speaker 6: What are they doing these days? What's the sentiment?

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Speaker 7: So they were very well set up specifically into this

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Speaker 7: tenor they were well hedged. And the one thing we

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Speaker 7: learned from April second is that you can be well

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Speaker 7: hedged and well monetized, but you can not be right

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Speaker 7: on the velocity up. So that's my question. Now, I

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Speaker 7: think we kind of protected our left tails. We kind

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Speaker 7: of knew this was coming to some degree as well.

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Speaker 7: Telegraphed that that non FUM payroll straddle break even was

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Speaker 7: was like we five seven percent. It was like a

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Speaker 7: nothing burger coming into options. To me, that's interesting as

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Speaker 7: the official term. And you know, so that tail has

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Speaker 7: been protected, and now the question is if we get

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Speaker 7: some sort of knife up, where do we sit on

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Speaker 7: the right tail? I think that side has not been

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Speaker 7: well protected yet by the same set of folks.

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Speaker 6: Does your market care about the fed?

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Speaker 2: Independence of the FED?

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Speaker 6: Maybe some pressure that the FED maybe getting from the

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Speaker 6: executive branch. Does the long term option market that they

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Speaker 6: care about?

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Speaker 2: That they do?

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Speaker 7: And you know, it's interesting if you think about the

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Speaker 7: first tantrum the market had, it was mostly around the

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Speaker 7: comments Trump made about firing pals. So the market didn't

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Speaker 7: like that. Right then we kind of fast forward to

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Speaker 7: cook there's less of a reaction, but to me, it

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Speaker 7: was like all part of the same reaction. The thing

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Speaker 7: that I wonder about is, you know, people kind of

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Speaker 7: stopped talking about this Trump taco trade. I wonder if

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Speaker 7: we really get severe steepening in the rates market, if

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Speaker 7: we can at higher volatility, if he doesn't just step

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Speaker 7: back as comments because that's what she has done in

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Speaker 7: the past, and he does recognize certain safeguards where he's like,

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Speaker 7: you know, I've gone too far and I got to

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Speaker 7: step it back.

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Speaker 2: On job Zay. We digress to the equity markets.

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Speaker 3: We do that with futures pretty much stable off where

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Speaker 3: they were two hours ago pre jobs report. We're up

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Speaker 3: point seven. Excuse we're up point five on NASDEK one.

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Speaker 3: That's where we are right now. Futures up nine, SMP

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Speaker 3: futures up nine and aiming with Silverman dazzles us from

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Speaker 3: RBC Capital Markets. Okay, trend following the CTAs. I'm looking

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Speaker 3: at a very very famous growth successful morning Star five

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Speaker 3: star fund and it's getting right up Bucker Stupp near

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Speaker 3: two standard deviations on a weekly chart. How extended are

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Speaker 3: CTA is? Is trend following now legitimate or is it

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Speaker 3: so stochastic that you can't make a bet?

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Speaker 7: I definitely think on the margin it's important to watch,

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Speaker 7: and as you said, it's kind of getting filled up.

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Speaker 7: And at the same time, you know, there's a lot

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Speaker 7: of kind of seasonal weakness that you get the September scaries,

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Speaker 7: and then on top of that you see retail weakening,

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Speaker 7: and I think that to me is why people have

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Speaker 7: been very nervous about this month and next month. My

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Speaker 7: question about it is Tom is like this has been

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Speaker 7: the most well telegraphed potential drawdown in history and and

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Speaker 7: so like how much velocity do you get into that

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Speaker 7: before it snaps back? Like to me, April second felt

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Speaker 7: exactly the same way, and we kind of saw what

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Speaker 7: happened there.

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Speaker 6: Does your market have a view on valuation? Concern about valuation,

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Speaker 6: not worried about it? Like, well, if I have a concern,

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Speaker 6: I can hedge it away. How does valuation come into

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Speaker 6: your market? The derivator's market?

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Speaker 7: You know, I remember being in a client meeting recently

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Speaker 7: and we always it's like no client meeting is filled

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Speaker 7: until you talk about AI and concentration valuation. And the

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Speaker 7: client just said, like, has the market ever really traded

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Speaker 7: off because of valuation? So meaning not that it's good

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Speaker 7: or bad, but has that actually in and of itself

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Speaker 7: been a catalyst the same way that like really strong

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Speaker 7: concentration a couple names have been a catalyst. And that's

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Speaker 7: the thing about the market is that that's not like

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Speaker 7: a specific event risk. It's just something that exists and

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Speaker 7: that unless something else perpetuates that that in and of

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Speaker 7: itself doesn't cause draw downs or historically.

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Speaker 3: You and I kneeled at the altar of Peter Lynch,

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Speaker 3: and what he's going to say is, look, every ninety days,

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Speaker 3: they show up and they deliver revenue report down the

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Speaker 3: income statement, earnings report. Let's modernize it over to free

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Speaker 3: cash flow with all the abilities of OURBC. Do you

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Speaker 3: see a breaking of the model September thirtieth into the

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Speaker 3: October earning season.

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Speaker 2: I don't see it.

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Speaker 7: I don't think so. And I think this is what

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Speaker 7: I mean by like, it has felt very telegraphed, literally

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Speaker 7: since April May of this year, that we were going

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Speaker 7: to get some sort of draw do some sort of

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Speaker 7: September scaries and failure, you know, whatever it is. And

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Speaker 7: so my question is, if we've all been so well

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Speaker 7: positioned for this and that gets monetized quickly, then what

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Speaker 7: happens after that? Are we literally, you know, on your

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Speaker 7: iPhone where you get like this day one year ago, like,

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Speaker 7: are we just infra a repeat of September sixth, twenty

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Speaker 7: twenty four, and what happened the month since then?

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Speaker 2: What are you hearing from your clients? You know, your

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Speaker 2: shoe box in the room. I mean you can hear

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Speaker 2: a pin. There's like quantitative finance prass to shut up,

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Speaker 2: don't ask a question. What do you hear from your clients?

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Speaker 7: You know, the big question I get asked from them,

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Speaker 7: is all the positioning data right now would suggest that

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Speaker 7: there's kind of weakness and demand the next few months.

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Speaker 7: But the question is, especially on the retail side, has

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Speaker 7: there been some sort of tectonic shift where that just

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Speaker 7: doesn't apply anymore? And it's really interesting because every time,

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Speaker 7: you know, we just had our summer interns. They're all

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Speaker 7: gone now. But every time I talk to interns, my

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Speaker 7: favorite thing to do is pull them and be like,

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Speaker 7: are you buying the market? Are you buying the market?

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Speaker 7: Because there is this cohort that we see much more

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Speaker 7: frequently in the options market that has not stepped away,

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Speaker 7: and I'm very curious if we get some sort of

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Speaker 7: stential move if not occurs again thirty seconds.

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Speaker 2: Have you talked to Taylor since secret and the engagement?

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Speaker 3: No?

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Speaker 7: You know, I worry she's not going to tour because

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Speaker 7: she's engaged now and she's too busy.

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Speaker 5: Like, is she going to tour for shows?

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Speaker 2: No, she's not.

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Speaker 7: You know, I'm very disappointed in that we got her Cavier.

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Speaker 2: Ball from Scully and Scully Wow went over on Park Avenue.

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Speaker 2: I mean they have everything, beautiful, guest, what do you

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Speaker 2: get them? I mean they have how many houses between

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Speaker 2: the two of them?

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Speaker 6: A puppy jersey short gut.

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Speaker 3: You know to see Amie with Silverman. Thank you, so

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Speaker 3: don't get her another caviar ball. We've got that taken

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Speaker 3: Amy with Silverman. RBC Capital Markets here were the markets

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Speaker 3: pretty much stays just off the shock of a twenty

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Speaker 3: two thousand statistic on non farm payrolls four point three

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Speaker 3: percent unemployment rate. We need an update from the interactive

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Speaker 3: broker studios. The Bloomberg Business Flash on jobs Day, Lisa.

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Speaker 8: Mantaoe, you got it in this business slash brought to

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Speaker 8: you by Oracle Attention growing businesses. Oracle offering to cut

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00:14:55,520 --> 00:14:57,600
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00:15:01,800 --> 00:15:05,800
Speaker 8: See if your company qualifies at Oracle dot Com slash Bloomberg.

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Speaker 8: So yes, we have a mixed look on Wall Street.

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Speaker 8: This is after US got job growth. It cooled considerably

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Speaker 8: last month. Unemployment rose to the highest since twenty twenty one.

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Speaker 8: So a breakdown the data showed non farm payrolls increased

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Speaker 8: twenty two thousand in August. Revision showed employment shrank in June,

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Speaker 8: the first payrolls decline since twenty twenty. The job is

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Speaker 8: righted ticked up to four point three percent. So now

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Speaker 8: we have NAZAC Future is up six ten percent, one

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Speaker 8: hundred and fifty five points. S some p Future is

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Speaker 8: rising two tens a percent. Down Future is little change,

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Speaker 8: down about thirty two points. The two year yield three

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Speaker 8: point four to nine percent. That's down nine basis points.

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Speaker 8: The yield on the tenure four point zero nine percent,

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Speaker 8: and that's down about six basis points. The dollar headed

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Speaker 8: for its week is showing this week right now. The

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Speaker 8: Bloomberg dollars spot indecks down half a percent. We've got

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Speaker 8: oil slipping, WTI crewed down one percent at sixty two dollars.

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Speaker 8: A barrel gold on the rise, Comix Gold at three thousand,

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Speaker 8: six hundred and thirty four dollars.

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Speaker 2: Announce you there, you got it.

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Speaker 8: Do that for you.

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Speaker 2: That is your Bloomberg business.

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Speaker 5: Lash Paul and Tom are remodeling.

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Speaker 2: The thirty seven hundred gold. I think you have to.

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Speaker 2: I mean, there is nothing stopping this thing. What does

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Speaker 2: it do for prices at Tiffany's.

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Speaker 3: It can't be good.

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Speaker 2: You got to pay up. The talk about elasticity, Yeah, exactly, Lisa, Lisa,

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Speaker 2: thank you so much, Lisa Mattaylor.

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Speaker 3: The other report, I'm watching NASIK one hundred futures up

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Speaker 3: seven tens of a percent all in all, advancing here

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Speaker 3: off the jobs report, the vics fifteen point zero seven

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Speaker 3: Bloomberg surveillance on this job's day with day after day's

336
00:16:32,680 --> 00:16:38,360
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Speaker 3: com to learn how we're killing it. Ken Rogoff, Rebecca Patterson,

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00:16:55,240 --> 00:17:00,000
Speaker 3: Claudius now Christina KATMANI with a sm Investco. Same question

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Speaker 3: I'm asking everybody else. If we get rate cuts, see

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Speaker 3: IBC Economics Toronto saying Bank of Canada molding numbers. They

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Speaker 3: suggest Bank of Canada's got a cut. If we get

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Speaker 3: rate cuts, do we get the same efficacious effect in

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Speaker 3: the system and in the bond market.

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Speaker 2: Is it a normal rate cut?

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Speaker 9: I don't know if it's a normal rate cut or

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Speaker 9: what we've historically been used to, because I think we're

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Speaker 9: pulling a lot of levers.

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Speaker 2: We're kind of back to that.

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Speaker 9: Same field of the beginning of the year, that we're

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Speaker 9: getting so many policy moves from the administration at once,

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Speaker 9: How do we weigh through them? What is the impact

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Speaker 9: which hits first? And I think we're in the same thing.

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Speaker 9: The market's digesting we've fired the BLS chair where we're

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Speaker 9: pulling all of these strings with the FED. The market's

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Speaker 9: contemplating FED independence. And I don't think we're seeing all

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Speaker 9: of it in the real time immediately today, but it

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Speaker 9: all adds up and I think it will bleed through

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Speaker 9: so and then I think when you talk about global

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Speaker 9: center bank, a lot of global central banks have eased

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Speaker 9: ahead of the FED and more already, right like the

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Speaker 9: Bank of Canada has to ease significantly more than the

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Speaker 9: FED to this point.

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Speaker 6: Brian Jacobson annex Wealth Management out with a note here

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Speaker 6: a fifty basis point cut is back on the tables.

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Speaker 6: That's one interpretation of kind of some of the data

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Speaker 6: points we saw here today. So Christina, you sit here

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Speaker 6: with the two year treasure yield at three and a

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Speaker 6: half percent. It's not the four percent we had before,

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Speaker 6: but still pretty solid. How do you think about treasuries

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Speaker 6: versus credit risk?

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Speaker 2: Here.

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Speaker 9: Yeah, So I think the treasury market, we still think

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Speaker 9: that the thematic remains the same, that the curve should

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Speaker 9: be steeper, and the front end has done a lot

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Speaker 9: of work. As you said, we're all the way to

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Speaker 9: three fifty, But does it probably continue to perform here

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Speaker 9: because the questions are are we getting just this slow

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Speaker 9: down or is there a real risk of breaking in

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Speaker 9: the labor market? Right Like you've had a lot of

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Speaker 9: mixed data until last month's pay or report. It really

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Speaker 9: had just been the soft data that had been weakening,

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Speaker 9: and everything else was resilient. The consumer still seems resilient.

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Speaker 9: So I think the front end still provides value in

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Speaker 9: a portfolio.

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Speaker 10: For sure.

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Speaker 9: We still like steepener so being short long end bonds.

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Speaker 9: I think that's a global phenomenon. And then credit markets

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Speaker 9: are tight, and they have been tight. I mean, that

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Speaker 9: hasn't stopped money from flowing it And you look at

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Speaker 9: the massive pipeline of supply that's come to start September

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Speaker 9: well absorbed with ease.

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Speaker 11: Thank you.

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Speaker 3: I mean, to me, that is the absolute headline is

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Speaker 3: the wall of money com money. Lawrence MacDonald, who wrote

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Speaker 3: an essay courageous essay on the three years ago, here's.

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Speaker 2: My reality, and I think it's unknown. You live this

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Speaker 2: every day.

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Speaker 3: The Bloomberg Total Return aggregate index on price basis has

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Speaker 3: advanced sixteen percent from the gloom of.

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Speaker 2: A number of years ago. We're easily three quarters.

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Speaker 3: Of the way back to the peak before the huge,

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Speaker 3: huge collapse that was out there. Kem. Rogoff's given us

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Speaker 3: a debt and deficit austerity view the street and investo

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Speaker 3: saying you can buy, you can participate in the market.

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Speaker 3: How do you manage the fears out there of the

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Speaker 3: debt and deficit long.

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Speaker 9: Term look, So, I think it goes back to weighing

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Speaker 9: those two things within credit. We look at credit across

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Speaker 9: the board and we think it looks tight, and so

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Speaker 9: if we're going to hold credit paper, we'd rather do

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Speaker 9: it in the front end. And I think kind of

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Speaker 9: globally where you have to be most concerned because of

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Speaker 9: all of all of these things that we're talking inflation risk, credibility, risk, deficits,

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Speaker 9: all of these means like I'm not being compensated significantly

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Speaker 9: enough even with bonds kind of sitting around five percent

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Speaker 9: to own that paper with all of the risks that

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Speaker 9: are out there. And then I think the clearest strait

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Speaker 9: is still in currencies, right, Like this all speaks to

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Speaker 9: a weeker dollar.

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Speaker 6: That's where I want to go to the dollar here.

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Speaker 6: I mean, I've seen my stock market bounce back. I

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Speaker 6: mean a lot of other risk assets that bounce back,

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Speaker 6: but the dollar is still eight nine percent below its

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Speaker 6: earlier year peak. Is that just because the dollar is

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Speaker 6: maybe over bought in the new year with President Trump,

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Speaker 6: animal spirits, all that kind of stuff, or is it

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Speaker 6: telling us something else?

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Speaker 9: I think it's a combo, and I think you have

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Speaker 9: to take a step back and say we're coming from

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Speaker 9: it ten year dollar bull run, and are some of

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Speaker 9: these big thematic things changing for us? It's been all

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Speaker 9: of these building blocks all mean a structurally weaker dollar.

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Speaker 9: We're talking about tariffs, which are attacks on the consumer.

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Speaker 9: We're talking about even again, we've talked a lot about

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Speaker 9: this of our people de dollarizing. I mean, people are

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Speaker 9: not selling dollar assets because there isn't an alternative to

440
00:21:26,359 --> 00:21:28,960
Speaker 9: a lot of the depth of US markets, certainly in equities,

441
00:21:29,200 --> 00:21:31,920
Speaker 9: but does the marginal next dollar get invested in home

442
00:21:31,960 --> 00:21:34,720
Speaker 9: currency for pensions and accounts like that? I think that

443
00:21:34,800 --> 00:21:37,840
Speaker 9: all still means we had the quick move in the

444
00:21:37,840 --> 00:21:39,440
Speaker 9: first half of the year of the dollar. But that

445
00:21:40,000 --> 00:21:42,800
Speaker 9: theme remains with us when we talk to Global Wall Street.

446
00:21:42,880 --> 00:21:44,840
Speaker 2: Right now. For those of you, hold on two hands

447
00:21:44,840 --> 00:21:47,560
Speaker 2: on the steering wheel if you're driving right now, Chris

448
00:21:47,640 --> 00:21:50,520
Speaker 2: Kinney Camp many of invesco with a clinic. Okay.

449
00:21:50,560 --> 00:21:53,800
Speaker 3: The vanilla spread is the difference in yield between the

450
00:21:53,840 --> 00:21:56,280
Speaker 3: two year and the ten year. That's what the media quotes.

451
00:21:56,520 --> 00:21:58,800
Speaker 3: Most people don't know what the dynamics are. The four

452
00:21:59,280 --> 00:22:02,240
Speaker 3: box out come you can have with two numbers moving

453
00:22:02,359 --> 00:22:04,760
Speaker 3: up and down. Maybe you look at the two year,

454
00:22:04,920 --> 00:22:08,000
Speaker 3: the ten year, the two year, the thirty year. The

455
00:22:08,119 --> 00:22:11,560
Speaker 3: adults like Christina look at the difference in between the

456
00:22:11,640 --> 00:22:15,760
Speaker 3: ten year and the thirty year. Christina, it's a moonshot

457
00:22:16,440 --> 00:22:20,359
Speaker 3: in twenty twenty five. At thirty year bone extending way

458
00:22:20,359 --> 00:22:24,240
Speaker 3: out of this is my Peter Fisher invitation. My thirty

459
00:22:24,280 --> 00:22:27,480
Speaker 3: year yield is extending way out higher than my tenure.

460
00:22:28,119 --> 00:22:30,360
Speaker 3: Is that a kind of thing where it snaps at

461
00:22:30,400 --> 00:22:32,680
Speaker 3: some point or do we just get back to where

462
00:22:32,680 --> 00:22:34,120
Speaker 3: we were three four years ago.

463
00:22:34,040 --> 00:22:38,120
Speaker 9: Steps which way, steps back, or snaps further Bringay.

464
00:22:37,800 --> 00:22:41,280
Speaker 2: That's a dynamic of that looks shot. Yeah, steepness.

465
00:22:41,320 --> 00:22:43,480
Speaker 5: I mean, we've steepened a lot this year.

466
00:22:44,119 --> 00:22:47,159
Speaker 9: We've certainly steepen more in cash and treasury space than

467
00:22:47,200 --> 00:22:49,720
Speaker 9: in the swap market. I think swapscurves are still kind

468
00:22:49,720 --> 00:22:53,960
Speaker 9: of not kind of giving that. But if you take

469
00:22:54,000 --> 00:22:57,520
Speaker 9: a step back of historically you talk about curves that

470
00:22:57,600 --> 00:23:00,520
Speaker 9: are two hundred three hundred basis points, when you talk

471
00:23:00,560 --> 00:23:03,120
Speaker 9: about two tens and we're still not there is.

472
00:23:03,080 --> 00:23:05,080
Speaker 2: There a road? I'm not back to normal.

473
00:23:05,040 --> 00:23:08,320
Speaker 9: No, I mean, and again you're coming off post GFC

474
00:23:09,280 --> 00:23:14,040
Speaker 9: zero lower bound, this different dynamic. So are are there

475
00:23:14,040 --> 00:23:15,760
Speaker 9: perhaps things that are different that you don't get to

476
00:23:15,760 --> 00:23:17,959
Speaker 9: a three hundred four hundred basis point stepness? But can

477
00:23:18,000 --> 00:23:18,520
Speaker 9: you be sleeper?

478
00:23:18,600 --> 00:23:18,840
Speaker 6: Sure?

479
00:23:19,000 --> 00:23:21,840
Speaker 2: How does a bond person lift the stock market?

480
00:23:21,960 --> 00:23:25,239
Speaker 3: She's single handed with the market right now, Nasak one

481
00:23:25,280 --> 00:23:27,920
Speaker 3: hundred up eight tenths of a percent because of Christina

482
00:23:27,960 --> 00:23:28,440
Speaker 3: cat Minnie.

483
00:23:28,480 --> 00:23:29,600
Speaker 2: Thank you so much, Christina.

484
00:23:29,840 --> 00:23:32,560
Speaker 3: Really treasure having you here on job day to go

485
00:23:32,640 --> 00:23:36,320
Speaker 3: from Rebecca Patterson to Claudia Sam Christina cat Menu.

486
00:23:36,400 --> 00:23:40,760
Speaker 2: There it's adults on Global Wall Street. Stay with us.

487
00:23:41,000 --> 00:23:44,240
Speaker 3: More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.

488
00:23:51,480 --> 00:23:55,080
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live

489
00:23:55,119 --> 00:23:58,280
Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on

490
00:23:58,359 --> 00:24:01,760
Speaker 1: Applecarplay and Android out all with the Bloomberg Business Up,

491
00:24:01,960 --> 00:24:03,640
Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube.

492
00:24:03,800 --> 00:24:07,160
Speaker 3: My book of the summer hugely successful for Ken Rogoff,

493
00:24:07,240 --> 00:24:09,040
Speaker 3: was Our Dollar Your Problem.

494
00:24:09,080 --> 00:24:10,480
Speaker 2: I put it out last night.

495
00:24:10,600 --> 00:24:14,240
Speaker 3: Is a summary along with Rick Atkinson's wonderful second volume

496
00:24:14,240 --> 00:24:18,560
Speaker 3: on the American Revolution, The Rogue offf Revolution, as he

497
00:24:18,640 --> 00:24:21,840
Speaker 3: has done with Carmen Reinhardt a decade ago and through

498
00:24:21,880 --> 00:24:26,159
Speaker 3: his career, is to consider our debt, our deficit, our

499
00:24:26,200 --> 00:24:30,560
Speaker 3: battle with austerity. Professor Rogoff joined some Harvard this morning. Ken,

500
00:24:30,600 --> 00:24:33,720
Speaker 3: Thank you so much. Congratulations on the book. Give us

501
00:24:33,760 --> 00:24:37,439
Speaker 3: an anecdote, Ken of the success of the book. I

502
00:24:37,520 --> 00:24:39,719
Speaker 3: want every economic student to read it.

503
00:24:39,880 --> 00:24:40,320
Speaker 2: Are they?

504
00:24:42,119 --> 00:24:45,399
Speaker 11: Oh, as people are starting to read it, they're really

505
00:24:45,520 --> 00:24:49,280
Speaker 11: enjoying it. I'm getting all kinds of emails, letters, not

506
00:24:49,400 --> 00:24:54,000
Speaker 11: to mention countless reviews where people has sort of been

507
00:24:54,160 --> 00:24:56,480
Speaker 11: surprised that it's so fun to read.

508
00:24:56,720 --> 00:24:57,160
Speaker 2: It's great.

509
00:24:57,240 --> 00:24:59,880
Speaker 3: At Lisa noted the grace slick is in the early pages.

510
00:25:00,520 --> 00:25:04,520
Speaker 3: You's got jes in there early. Okay, Ken project Syndicate,

511
00:25:04,560 --> 00:25:09,560
Speaker 3: A blistering essay. Foreign Affairs Magazine, a blistering essay. This

512
00:25:09,720 --> 00:25:13,520
Speaker 3: time is different. Are we finally unraveling our debt and

513
00:25:13,640 --> 00:25:15,520
Speaker 3: our deficit to crisis?

514
00:25:17,240 --> 00:25:21,080
Speaker 11: Well, in my book, I thought it would take five

515
00:25:21,119 --> 00:25:22,119
Speaker 11: to seven years.

516
00:25:22,560 --> 00:25:24,000
Speaker 2: On the current track, we are.

517
00:25:24,400 --> 00:25:27,480
Speaker 11: I think Trump, as you said earlier, as an accelerant.

518
00:25:28,760 --> 00:25:30,800
Speaker 2: You know, it's certainly not a sure thing.

519
00:25:30,920 --> 00:25:35,000
Speaker 11: A lot of it goes around what are the underlying

520
00:25:35,080 --> 00:25:39,639
Speaker 11: interest rates? If we go back to the zero interest rates,

521
00:25:40,080 --> 00:25:43,879
Speaker 11: real interest rates of the twenty tens up through twenty

522
00:25:43,920 --> 00:25:48,879
Speaker 11: twenty two in the pandemic, Well, sure, that is a

523
00:25:48,920 --> 00:25:51,960
Speaker 11: free lunch. I mean you can spend and you basically

524
00:25:51,960 --> 00:25:55,080
Speaker 11: don't have to pay anything. That's what all the I

525
00:25:55,240 --> 00:26:00,000
Speaker 11: call them antiosterians were absolutely convinced. And some very smart

526
00:26:00,119 --> 00:26:03,879
Speaker 11: people you had them on your program, followed this. I

527
00:26:03,880 --> 00:26:08,840
Speaker 11: mean there was Larry Summer's secular stagnation. He's very nuanced

528
00:26:08,840 --> 00:26:12,760
Speaker 11: about it. To be fair, Olivier Blonchard, president of the

529
00:26:12,800 --> 00:26:16,600
Speaker 11: American Economic Association, said we shouldn't look at debt anymore.

530
00:26:17,440 --> 00:26:22,040
Speaker 11: Paul Krugman wrote constantly about this, but what do you know?

531
00:26:22,440 --> 00:26:25,359
Speaker 11: Interest rates have gone up? And the big question is

532
00:26:26,000 --> 00:26:30,040
Speaker 11: are have we normalized or is this just something after

533
00:26:30,080 --> 00:26:33,360
Speaker 11: the pandemic? I think for many reasons. If you look

534
00:26:33,359 --> 00:26:37,359
Speaker 11: at the history of real interest rates, they're probably about

535
00:26:37,359 --> 00:26:39,040
Speaker 11: where they're going to be for a long time, in

536
00:26:39,040 --> 00:26:43,400
Speaker 11: which case we are in trouble. So that's a long

537
00:26:43,440 --> 00:26:47,480
Speaker 11: winded answer, but it's really about interest rates, not just

538
00:26:47,520 --> 00:26:49,360
Speaker 11: about dead I want to get to sit on interest rates.

539
00:26:49,400 --> 00:26:51,560
Speaker 3: Paul's got eight questions he wants to jump in here.

540
00:26:51,560 --> 00:26:54,440
Speaker 3: But the answer, Ken Roguff is I'm auditing X ten

541
00:26:54,520 --> 00:26:57,520
Speaker 3: with Jason Furman, so I did a fancy logarithmic thirty

542
00:26:57,600 --> 00:27:00,600
Speaker 3: year bun We get to the Ken rogan Off six

543
00:27:00,640 --> 00:27:06,320
Speaker 3: percent thirty year bond, Paul late next year, like autumn

544
00:27:06,400 --> 00:27:08,840
Speaker 3: of the next year. Ken, do you still model a

545
00:27:08,960 --> 00:27:11,920
Speaker 3: six percent yield for the United States of America?

546
00:27:13,520 --> 00:27:16,239
Speaker 11: Well, I think a six percent ten year treasury is

547
00:27:16,280 --> 00:27:21,040
Speaker 11: more likely than a one in three quarters treasury that

548
00:27:21,119 --> 00:27:22,359
Speaker 11: we had for a long time.

549
00:27:23,240 --> 00:27:23,880
Speaker 2: Absolutely.

550
00:27:23,920 --> 00:27:27,199
Speaker 11: I mean, it's very hard to predict interest rates, but

551
00:27:27,280 --> 00:27:29,640
Speaker 11: I think there is likely to go up as down.

552
00:27:30,640 --> 00:27:31,080
Speaker 2: Professor.

553
00:27:31,119 --> 00:27:33,320
Speaker 6: I've been in this market since for thirty five years,

554
00:27:33,359 --> 00:27:36,480
Speaker 6: and we've been talking about the national debt and deficits

555
00:27:36,680 --> 00:27:40,960
Speaker 6: every single year, yet nothing changes. And I guess I've

556
00:27:40,960 --> 00:27:43,080
Speaker 6: been told by others that say, hey, as long as

557
00:27:43,119 --> 00:27:45,480
Speaker 6: people continue to buy our.

558
00:27:45,400 --> 00:27:46,840
Speaker 2: Treasury bonds, we're okay.

559
00:27:47,480 --> 00:27:48,360
Speaker 6: How do you think about that?

560
00:27:49,840 --> 00:27:53,240
Speaker 11: The question is at what price? We've gone through this

561
00:27:53,359 --> 00:27:57,280
Speaker 11: period where interest rates have gone down and down and down,

562
00:27:57,760 --> 00:28:01,000
Speaker 11: and our death you know, has gone up from maybe

563
00:28:01,119 --> 00:28:06,240
Speaker 11: thirty percent of GDP in nineteen eighty to sixty percent

564
00:28:06,720 --> 00:28:09,960
Speaker 11: to ninety percent to over one hundred and twenty percent,

565
00:28:11,320 --> 00:28:15,240
Speaker 11: and the interest rates had been coming down until they didn't.

566
00:28:15,400 --> 00:28:17,600
Speaker 11: And if you look at history, there have been long

567
00:28:17,720 --> 00:28:21,040
Speaker 11: periods where interest rates were rising where they're in decline,

568
00:28:21,359 --> 00:28:23,680
Speaker 11: and I think they're in a period where they're normalizing.

569
00:28:23,760 --> 00:28:27,800
Speaker 11: So people were too focused on debt and not looky

570
00:28:27,920 --> 00:28:30,240
Speaker 11: enough at well, what's the interest on the debt?

571
00:28:30,640 --> 00:28:31,960
Speaker 2: That's what's changed.

572
00:28:32,720 --> 00:28:34,920
Speaker 6: What do you what would you if you were sitting

573
00:28:34,960 --> 00:28:36,840
Speaker 6: in Congress and you had a couple of folks on

574
00:28:36,880 --> 00:28:39,520
Speaker 6: both sides of the aisle with you, what would you

575
00:28:39,600 --> 00:28:43,240
Speaker 6: suggest they do to address this issue?

576
00:28:43,840 --> 00:28:46,680
Speaker 11: Well, why don't you at least give a try to

577
00:28:46,800 --> 00:28:49,800
Speaker 11: running a two to three percent deficit instead of a

578
00:28:49,880 --> 00:28:53,480
Speaker 11: six or seven percent deficit. You know, while you organize.

579
00:28:53,520 --> 00:28:56,760
Speaker 11: I mean, you know, the solutions are well known. You

580
00:28:56,800 --> 00:29:00,400
Speaker 11: could improve the tax system, their ways to make it

581
00:29:00,440 --> 00:29:03,040
Speaker 11: more efficient. We don't have a very efficient system would

582
00:29:03,040 --> 00:29:04,640
Speaker 11: be the understatement.

583
00:29:04,000 --> 00:29:04,400
Speaker 2: Of the year.

584
00:29:05,960 --> 00:29:09,280
Speaker 11: They are all kinds of suggestions for improving growth, but

585
00:29:09,640 --> 00:29:12,560
Speaker 11: I think sort of a sober thing to do would

586
00:29:12,640 --> 00:29:15,040
Speaker 11: be to at least not run what we call a

587
00:29:15,080 --> 00:29:19,480
Speaker 11: primary deficit, means above and beyond the interest payments, which

588
00:29:19,560 --> 00:29:21,600
Speaker 11: right now are about three percent of GDP.

589
00:29:22,720 --> 00:29:24,719
Speaker 3: I just want to drop in here with an important

590
00:29:24,720 --> 00:29:27,640
Speaker 3: announcement separate from ken Rogoff, and we're thrilled you're listening

591
00:29:27,640 --> 00:29:30,440
Speaker 3: to us across the nation today and indeed around the

592
00:29:30,480 --> 00:29:35,240
Speaker 3: world and in a fractious United Kingdom. Angelo Rayner resigns

593
00:29:35,400 --> 00:29:38,600
Speaker 3: is US Deputy Prime Minister. I'm not going to go

594
00:29:38,640 --> 00:29:40,960
Speaker 3: into the nuances because I don't understand it, but there

595
00:29:40,960 --> 00:29:44,440
Speaker 3: has been an uproar and the Labor Party wrapped around

596
00:29:44,480 --> 00:29:48,600
Speaker 3: the Deputy Prime minister. She resigns and also will resign

597
00:29:49,200 --> 00:29:52,640
Speaker 3: various posts at the Labor Party as well. So that's

598
00:29:52,680 --> 00:29:56,080
Speaker 3: breaking news in the United Kingdom. What perspective for you

599
00:29:56,160 --> 00:29:58,880
Speaker 3: as we can we continue with Kenneth Rogoff, Paul, Why

600
00:29:58,880 --> 00:30:00,440
Speaker 3: don't you pick it up with professor at real.

601
00:30:00,400 --> 00:30:03,120
Speaker 6: Growth, so Ken, as we think about just kind of

602
00:30:03,280 --> 00:30:07,360
Speaker 6: global economic growth here and we've got we're now in

603
00:30:07,400 --> 00:30:12,360
Speaker 6: a world of terrafs, reciprocal terrorffs, all kinds of barriers

604
00:30:12,400 --> 00:30:13,719
Speaker 6: going up the global trade.

605
00:30:13,960 --> 00:30:14,880
Speaker 2: As you step back and.

606
00:30:14,800 --> 00:30:16,480
Speaker 6: Look at it from a thirty thousand foot level, what

607
00:30:16,520 --> 00:30:19,440
Speaker 6: does that mean to you for kind of global economic growth?

608
00:30:21,600 --> 00:30:24,320
Speaker 11: Well, I think near term, you know, the growth has

609
00:30:24,560 --> 00:30:27,360
Speaker 11: held up better than anyone would have guessed with all

610
00:30:27,440 --> 00:30:31,560
Speaker 11: this noise going on. That's been a surprise. Now we

611
00:30:31,640 --> 00:30:35,160
Speaker 11: may find you're getting the labor data today and you

612
00:30:35,200 --> 00:30:37,239
Speaker 11: know it wasn't as good as we thought it was,

613
00:30:37,280 --> 00:30:40,600
Speaker 11: and it's hard to know what's going on. I might interject,

614
00:30:40,640 --> 00:30:44,479
Speaker 11: you know, labor jobsday has always been the big number

615
00:30:44,800 --> 00:30:48,560
Speaker 11: because it's the most reliable number that we get sort

616
00:30:48,600 --> 00:30:49,400
Speaker 11: of in real time.

617
00:30:50,200 --> 00:30:51,720
Speaker 2: Maybe now and.

618
00:30:51,680 --> 00:30:55,239
Speaker 11: Going forward, it's not going to be considered as reliable.

619
00:30:54,800 --> 00:30:57,080
Speaker 2: And I don't know what we're going to look at.

620
00:30:57,360 --> 00:30:58,360
Speaker 2: Can I look at your book?

621
00:30:58,360 --> 00:31:00,920
Speaker 3: And I want to bring this back to a summary

622
00:31:00,960 --> 00:31:04,760
Speaker 3: of all the crises across Ken Rogoff's The Young Academics

623
00:31:04,840 --> 00:31:08,200
Speaker 3: is just it's amazing shows up for a job interviews

624
00:31:08,280 --> 00:31:10,160
Speaker 3: in a polyester suit? How did that go?

625
00:31:10,360 --> 00:31:11,080
Speaker 2: Ken? Rogoff?

626
00:31:11,320 --> 00:31:14,360
Speaker 3: You showed up in early in the book Young Rogueff,

627
00:31:14,520 --> 00:31:17,200
Speaker 3: chess guy shows up in a polyester suit?

628
00:31:17,440 --> 00:31:18,520
Speaker 2: How did that go? Ken?

629
00:31:19,800 --> 00:31:22,920
Speaker 11: It was my Rhodes scholarship interview, and I had just

630
00:31:23,000 --> 00:31:24,080
Speaker 11: never worn a suit.

631
00:31:24,120 --> 00:31:25,960
Speaker 2: I never bought a suit. I didn't know what it

632
00:31:26,000 --> 00:31:26,400
Speaker 2: looked like.

633
00:31:26,680 --> 00:31:30,120
Speaker 11: So I had this sort of it was really beautiful colors,

634
00:31:30,160 --> 00:31:32,640
Speaker 11: you know. I looked like I was probably some kind

635
00:31:32,680 --> 00:31:35,840
Speaker 11: of entertainer. And everyone who was else was wearing gray

636
00:31:36,320 --> 00:31:39,440
Speaker 11: blue suits. And I tie it in later to when

637
00:31:39,520 --> 00:31:43,239
Speaker 11: I go to Poland playing in a chess tournament, and

638
00:31:43,320 --> 00:31:47,360
Speaker 11: I'm describing how they their suits are awful because they have,

639
00:31:47,880 --> 00:31:51,400
Speaker 11: you know, centralized planning, and they're looking at my so

640
00:31:51,520 --> 00:31:53,360
Speaker 11: and saying, oh my gosh.

641
00:31:53,040 --> 00:31:58,440
Speaker 2: Do all Americans have such great suits? Can I look

642
00:31:58,480 --> 00:31:59,200
Speaker 2: at Ardella?

643
00:31:59,240 --> 00:32:02,960
Speaker 3: Your problem speaks of crisis just as a general statement,

644
00:32:03,000 --> 00:32:05,560
Speaker 3: and I'll let you work off it. How close are

645
00:32:05,600 --> 00:32:09,080
Speaker 3: we to the collective fears of global Wall Street of

646
00:32:09,160 --> 00:32:15,280
Speaker 3: August nineteen ninety eight, the unraveling of various em crises Ecuador, Mexico,

647
00:32:15,640 --> 00:32:19,600
Speaker 3: and the rest or something tangible like the IMF bailout

648
00:32:19,600 --> 00:32:21,840
Speaker 3: of the UK many decades ago.

649
00:32:23,600 --> 00:32:27,400
Speaker 11: Well, there are lots of small countries in crisis. In fact,

650
00:32:27,520 --> 00:32:30,160
Speaker 11: way more than in a long time. I mean, the

651
00:32:30,440 --> 00:32:35,480
Speaker 11: World Bank reported that almost half the developing and low

652
00:32:35,520 --> 00:32:39,520
Speaker 11: income countries were basically in default. We have the Sri Lankas,

653
00:32:39,640 --> 00:32:43,680
Speaker 11: there's always Argentina, Lebanon. I mean, there's all kinds of

654
00:32:43,720 --> 00:32:45,960
Speaker 11: countries that are in trouble. I should say Argentina is

655
00:32:46,000 --> 00:32:48,360
Speaker 11: doing much better now, but of course it has a

656
00:32:48,360 --> 00:32:52,640
Speaker 11: pretty big debt problem. Those often are the Canara and

657
00:32:52,680 --> 00:32:56,120
Speaker 11: the coal mine for when something larger happens. If you

658
00:32:56,240 --> 00:33:00,400
Speaker 11: go back to the nineteen eighty three debt crisis, that

659
00:33:00,520 --> 00:33:03,360
Speaker 11: was really you know, the Latin American debt crisis the

660
00:33:03,440 --> 00:33:08,200
Speaker 11: last decade. Actually, if you go earlier before Mexico, Brazil

661
00:33:08,280 --> 00:33:10,800
Speaker 11: and everyone else, there were a lot of small countries.

662
00:33:10,880 --> 00:33:15,360
Speaker 11: So when you have interest rates high, this much volatility

663
00:33:16,560 --> 00:33:19,800
Speaker 11: going on, very high debt everywhere, it's you know, like

664
00:33:19,840 --> 00:33:23,840
Speaker 11: a forest that's very dry and something can set it off.

665
00:33:23,920 --> 00:33:26,200
Speaker 2: But you know, I don't know what it would be.

666
00:33:26,240 --> 00:33:29,200
Speaker 11: It would not surprise me if we did have a

667
00:33:29,280 --> 00:33:34,400
Speaker 11: major country run into big problems, which could run anywhere

668
00:33:34,640 --> 00:33:38,600
Speaker 11: from you know, a Latin American country to Japan over

669
00:33:38,640 --> 00:33:39,320
Speaker 11: the coming year.

670
00:33:40,280 --> 00:33:43,640
Speaker 6: Ken given kind of that uncertainty global uncertainty, this federal

671
00:33:43,680 --> 00:33:46,480
Speaker 6: reserve is really in a tight spot here. And not

672
00:33:46,600 --> 00:33:53,400
Speaker 6: to mention the political pressures on this federal reserve, what

673
00:33:53,440 --> 00:33:54,880
Speaker 6: do you make of the kind of how the Feds

674
00:33:54,960 --> 00:33:57,920
Speaker 6: kind of been working here the last several months and

675
00:33:57,960 --> 00:33:59,920
Speaker 6: maybe what it'll do over the coming.

676
00:34:02,040 --> 00:34:06,720
Speaker 11: Well, the big call is actually not whether to take

677
00:34:06,800 --> 00:34:10,640
Speaker 11: the SHORTERM interest rate down half a percent or a

678
00:34:10,719 --> 00:34:12,920
Speaker 11: quarter percent or when to do it.

679
00:34:13,080 --> 00:34:15,800
Speaker 2: The big call is where are we headed.

680
00:34:16,520 --> 00:34:20,040
Speaker 11: If we're headed back to these very low interest rates,

681
00:34:20,040 --> 00:34:22,759
Speaker 11: which some very smart people think, I mean, this is

682
00:34:22,800 --> 00:34:26,239
Speaker 11: a debate, then they have a lot of room to

683
00:34:26,360 --> 00:34:28,840
Speaker 11: cut without triggering inflation.

684
00:34:29,000 --> 00:34:31,520
Speaker 2: They'd sort of be moving the market to where it

685
00:34:31,560 --> 00:34:32,080
Speaker 2: should be.

686
00:34:32,800 --> 00:34:35,279
Speaker 11: On the other hand, if that's not the case, which

687
00:34:35,320 --> 00:34:39,040
Speaker 11: I believe and I think by enlarge the Fed staff

688
00:34:39,440 --> 00:34:43,279
Speaker 11: is very skeptical of the lower forever review, then they

689
00:34:43,280 --> 00:34:46,080
Speaker 11: need to be cautious. It's so hard to read the data.

690
00:34:46,560 --> 00:34:51,799
Speaker 11: The combination of Trump, AI and everything makes it very

691
00:34:51,840 --> 00:34:53,000
Speaker 11: hard to know what's going on.

692
00:34:53,239 --> 00:34:55,279
Speaker 3: You can comment, honey, our singing, and this is of

693
00:34:55,320 --> 00:34:58,960
Speaker 3: course working with Jorgensen at Harvard and many other giants

694
00:34:58,960 --> 00:35:02,320
Speaker 3: on I'm going to call it for the dynamics of productivity.

695
00:35:02,360 --> 00:35:04,759
Speaker 3: And there's a school can down the street where I

696
00:35:04,800 --> 00:35:07,680
Speaker 3: think they came up with total factor productivity.

697
00:35:07,719 --> 00:35:09,359
Speaker 2: I can't remember quite, but.

698
00:35:09,640 --> 00:35:14,920
Speaker 3: On productivity, the great theme of our liberal state is

699
00:35:15,000 --> 00:35:18,120
Speaker 3: productivity and technology to the rescue.

700
00:35:18,239 --> 00:35:23,560
Speaker 2: Do you observe that or is that over emphasized? Well,

701
00:35:23,760 --> 00:35:27,480
Speaker 2: it's certainly not overemphasized. It's very important.

702
00:35:27,480 --> 00:35:29,319
Speaker 11: It's sort of hard to know how to make it

703
00:35:29,360 --> 00:35:32,040
Speaker 11: come and how to make it go away. I think

704
00:35:32,080 --> 00:35:36,600
Speaker 11: Wall Street obviously has been very excited about AI their

705
00:35:36,719 --> 00:35:40,319
Speaker 11: air pockets, where the productivity has been very clear. I

706
00:35:40,480 --> 00:35:43,000
Speaker 11: do think some of what we're seeing in the high

707
00:35:43,040 --> 00:35:50,359
Speaker 11: Wall Street prices reflects labor share falling, profits and businesses

708
00:35:50,480 --> 00:35:53,480
Speaker 11: share rising, which means it isn't growth.

709
00:35:54,320 --> 00:35:55,400
Speaker 2: It isn't all growth.

710
00:35:55,480 --> 00:35:58,560
Speaker 11: Some of it's just a reallocation that has a very

711
00:35:58,600 --> 00:36:00,400
Speaker 11: different political implications.

712
00:36:00,480 --> 00:36:04,360
Speaker 2: Of course, Ken, congratulations on my book of the summer.

713
00:36:04,400 --> 00:36:07,399
Speaker 2: I just can't say enough, folks, whatever smart.

714
00:36:07,080 --> 00:36:09,440
Speaker 3: Ale of kid you've got, I don't care how they're smart,

715
00:36:09,480 --> 00:36:13,160
Speaker 3: Like rogueoff, they're dumb Liking the answer is cover to

716
00:36:13,239 --> 00:36:14,520
Speaker 3: cover two hundred pages.

717
00:36:14,680 --> 00:36:16,320
Speaker 2: Our dollar, your problem.

718
00:36:16,719 --> 00:36:20,040
Speaker 3: It is the arc of ken Rogoff's career and the

719
00:36:20,160 --> 00:36:21,919
Speaker 3: view for it as well.

720
00:36:22,000 --> 00:36:25,680
Speaker 2: Kenneth Rogoff, Harvard University. Stay with us.

721
00:36:25,920 --> 00:36:29,160
Speaker 3: More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.

722
00:36:36,400 --> 00:36:40,000
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us Live

723
00:36:40,040 --> 00:36:43,560
Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on Apple,

724
00:36:43,600 --> 00:36:44,920
Speaker 1: Karplay and Android Otto.

725
00:36:45,160 --> 00:36:47,479
Speaker 2: Join us selling US jobs for twenty summer.

726
00:36:48,360 --> 00:36:50,840
Speaker 3: You joined us with all of her work at Bessemer,

727
00:36:51,120 --> 00:36:55,560
Speaker 3: Trusted Bridgewater and at the Council on Foreign Relations. Here's

728
00:36:55,600 --> 00:36:57,600
Speaker 3: what I want to know, but dying to talk to you.

729
00:36:58,200 --> 00:37:02,680
Speaker 3: How efficacious will FED rate cuts be? Or is our

730
00:37:02,719 --> 00:37:07,080
Speaker 3: economy terrasenal in such a jumble that a series of

731
00:37:07,200 --> 00:37:11,160
Speaker 3: quarter point cuts won't provide the salvation.

732
00:37:10,840 --> 00:37:11,440
Speaker 2: We're used to.

733
00:37:12,160 --> 00:37:15,239
Speaker 10: Good morning, and that is exactly my fear. So when

734
00:37:15,239 --> 00:37:19,640
Speaker 10: we hear members of the administration saying rate cuts are needed,

735
00:37:19,760 --> 00:37:24,719
Speaker 10: the housing market will swing. Those were Trump's words were

736
00:37:24,920 --> 00:37:28,960
Speaker 10: in a different regime. Inflation running core PCE, running it

737
00:37:29,040 --> 00:37:32,279
Speaker 10: close to three percent instead of one percent or one

738
00:37:32,320 --> 00:37:35,120
Speaker 10: and a half percent. We had extremely low inflation the

739
00:37:35,200 --> 00:37:38,040
Speaker 10: last twenty ish years, and so the FED didn't have

740
00:37:38,080 --> 00:37:39,879
Speaker 10: to worry about that. It could focus on the job

741
00:37:40,000 --> 00:37:42,879
Speaker 10: side of its mandate. So when it cut, you didn't

742
00:37:42,920 --> 00:37:45,360
Speaker 10: worry about inflation getting out of control pushing up the

743
00:37:45,680 --> 00:37:46,120
Speaker 10: long end.

744
00:37:46,080 --> 00:37:46,759
Speaker 2: Of the yield curve.

745
00:37:46,880 --> 00:37:49,000
Speaker 10: You just gave liquidity to the market and you help

746
00:37:49,120 --> 00:37:53,000
Speaker 10: create jobs. Today is different. If we cut, yes we're

747
00:37:53,000 --> 00:37:55,680
Speaker 10: going to provide liquidity. Yes, that helps the discount rate

748
00:37:55,719 --> 00:37:59,960
Speaker 10: for equities, but it doesn't necessarily translate into a swinging

749
00:38:00,080 --> 00:38:02,359
Speaker 10: housing market. I think the risk goes the other way.

750
00:38:02,880 --> 00:38:05,680
Speaker 6: So as we step back here, I mean, what do

751
00:38:05,680 --> 00:38:07,880
Speaker 6: you think the Fed is really focusing on the labor

752
00:38:07,920 --> 00:38:11,160
Speaker 6: market inflation, trying to balance it makings front and center.

753
00:38:11,280 --> 00:38:13,000
Speaker 10: Yeah, I mean they are trying to balance it. They're

754
00:38:13,120 --> 00:38:17,040
Speaker 10: very worried about inflation and inflation expectations rising. It was

755
00:38:17,120 --> 00:38:19,480
Speaker 10: bad enough the hit they took after missing it a

756
00:38:19,520 --> 00:38:21,640
Speaker 10: couple of years ago. They don't want to do that twice.

757
00:38:22,080 --> 00:38:24,400
Speaker 10: At the same time, there is more and more data

758
00:38:24,800 --> 00:38:27,759
Speaker 10: coming out suggesting the labor market's cooling, and what they

759
00:38:27,760 --> 00:38:30,439
Speaker 10: want to avoid is that hockey stick moment that we've

760
00:38:30,480 --> 00:38:35,520
Speaker 10: seen historically, when you know, slow, moderate job reductions become

761
00:38:35,640 --> 00:38:38,839
Speaker 10: much bigger ones, and that could happen. I don't say

762
00:38:38,880 --> 00:38:42,600
Speaker 10: it will, but that's so they're trying to balance that.

763
00:38:42,760 --> 00:38:45,720
Speaker 10: I think a rate cut this month, no harm, no foul,

764
00:38:46,040 --> 00:38:47,920
Speaker 10: one hundred and forty basis points by the end of

765
00:38:47,960 --> 00:38:48,800
Speaker 10: next year is different.

766
00:38:49,000 --> 00:38:49,759
Speaker 2: Unemployment rate.

767
00:38:49,800 --> 00:38:52,560
Speaker 6: I mean, you know the consensus here, Rebecca's four point

768
00:38:52,640 --> 00:38:54,600
Speaker 6: three percent. It's a little bit higher than last month,

769
00:38:54,640 --> 00:38:57,520
Speaker 6: but I don't know, it still feels like full employment

770
00:38:57,560 --> 00:38:58,759
Speaker 6: to me. What do you think the number is that

771
00:38:58,800 --> 00:38:59,440
Speaker 6: Fed's looking at.

772
00:38:59,520 --> 00:39:02,480
Speaker 10: Yeah, the big story with unemployment rate is that it's

773
00:39:02,520 --> 00:39:05,560
Speaker 10: and Powell talked about this at Jackson Hole last month,

774
00:39:05,719 --> 00:39:09,680
Speaker 10: is that you have fewer net new jobs being added,

775
00:39:09,719 --> 00:39:12,680
Speaker 10: but you also have less supply of labor, and so

776
00:39:12,719 --> 00:39:15,799
Speaker 10: those two things together are helping to keep the unemployment

777
00:39:15,840 --> 00:39:17,160
Speaker 10: rate relatively flat.

778
00:39:17,560 --> 00:39:18,799
Speaker 2: So because you.

779
00:39:18,840 --> 00:39:21,680
Speaker 10: Normally don't see this huge decrease in labor supply that's

780
00:39:21,719 --> 00:39:24,920
Speaker 10: coming from the immigration deportations and lack of new immigrants,

781
00:39:25,320 --> 00:39:27,719
Speaker 10: that's usually not a factor. So a non employment rate

782
00:39:27,760 --> 00:39:30,480
Speaker 10: goes up, it goes up. We know what that means today. Again,

783
00:39:30,520 --> 00:39:32,040
Speaker 10: we're in a different regime.

784
00:39:32,880 --> 00:39:35,520
Speaker 6: So as we step back here, put it all together.

785
00:39:36,680 --> 00:39:38,480
Speaker 6: When you talk to investors. How much risk do you

786
00:39:38,480 --> 00:39:40,160
Speaker 6: think they want to take out there when they think

787
00:39:40,200 --> 00:39:43,440
Speaker 6: about all this cross winds out there and geopolitical issues,

788
00:39:43,480 --> 00:39:46,680
Speaker 6: and what's the risk appetite? What's the sentiment out there?

789
00:39:46,760 --> 00:39:50,160
Speaker 10: I mean with equity markets, earnings beat a low bar,

790
00:39:50,320 --> 00:39:52,919
Speaker 10: but they beat right and stocks are near all time

791
00:39:53,040 --> 00:39:55,920
Speaker 10: highs now. I think a lot of that is retail investors.

792
00:39:56,400 --> 00:39:58,839
Speaker 10: I think a lot of that still is investors who

793
00:39:58,800 --> 00:40:02,880
Speaker 10: want exposure to the more structural trade themes like AI beneficiaries,

794
00:40:02,920 --> 00:40:04,520
Speaker 10: global defense, and infrastructure.

795
00:40:04,920 --> 00:40:06,279
Speaker 2: But that is still.

796
00:40:06,000 --> 00:40:09,200
Speaker 10: Creating wealth for consumers which allows them to keep spending.

797
00:40:09,440 --> 00:40:11,600
Speaker 10: So I think the risk appetite is there. But I

798
00:40:11,640 --> 00:40:14,279
Speaker 10: think gold is sending us a signal up thirty five

799
00:40:14,360 --> 00:40:18,200
Speaker 10: percent year to date. You know, I worry that we're

800
00:40:18,200 --> 00:40:22,080
Speaker 10: going to have a Brexit moment, that everything is fine, fine, fine,

801
00:40:22,360 --> 00:40:24,560
Speaker 10: and then suddenly it's not. And that's what we saw

802
00:40:24,560 --> 00:40:27,560
Speaker 10: in twenty sixteen when the referendum was announced in February

803
00:40:27,600 --> 00:40:31,400
Speaker 10: till the vote in June, UK markets were commcomcom and

804
00:40:31,440 --> 00:40:34,120
Speaker 10: then June twenty third we got the vote and suddenly

805
00:40:34,160 --> 00:40:37,759
Speaker 10: people said, oh this is actually real, and everything collapsed.

806
00:40:37,800 --> 00:40:40,040
Speaker 2: So we got a technological revolution.

807
00:40:40,120 --> 00:40:42,520
Speaker 3: I was busting Ken Rogoff's chops at the guys down

808
00:40:42,520 --> 00:40:43,879
Speaker 3: at MIT got it right.

809
00:40:44,800 --> 00:40:47,319
Speaker 2: High tech at Harvard is you know, can we get

810
00:40:47,320 --> 00:40:48,680
Speaker 2: a defenseman to play hockey?

811
00:40:49,280 --> 00:40:53,000
Speaker 3: So, Rebecca, the bottom line is we've got an ambiguity here,

812
00:40:53,040 --> 00:40:54,720
Speaker 3: which you studied your expert at.

813
00:40:55,280 --> 00:40:58,120
Speaker 2: And then if rates go up it's ambiguous, maybe we

814
00:40:58,239 --> 00:40:58,840
Speaker 2: do okay.

815
00:40:59,480 --> 00:41:03,920
Speaker 3: But if there's this huge political effort of rates going down,

816
00:41:04,560 --> 00:41:07,920
Speaker 3: what is the ambiguity? What do our listeners and viewers

817
00:41:07,960 --> 00:41:10,359
Speaker 3: have to look one way or the other way.

818
00:41:10,719 --> 00:41:14,240
Speaker 10: So rates going down in part because of a politicized

819
00:41:14,280 --> 00:41:18,120
Speaker 10: fed to me means yield steepening continues. So the short

820
00:41:18,239 --> 00:41:20,200
Speaker 10: end goes down of the curve, but the ten year,

821
00:41:20,239 --> 00:41:23,319
Speaker 10: the thirty year treasury yields go up. That undermines the

822
00:41:23,360 --> 00:41:27,400
Speaker 10: housing market, it undermines auto loans. It's going to be

823
00:41:27,400 --> 00:41:31,320
Speaker 10: something that hurts the consumer. So I think the AI

824
00:41:31,440 --> 00:41:34,480
Speaker 10: story I wrote about this at CFR's website earlier this week.

825
00:41:34,880 --> 00:41:38,120
Speaker 10: It's not just AI hurting jobs next year, it's AI

826
00:41:38,239 --> 00:41:42,120
Speaker 10: investments companies must make that are increasing their costs. They

827
00:41:42,120 --> 00:41:44,359
Speaker 10: need to offset that because they're keeping a close eye

828
00:41:44,360 --> 00:41:46,799
Speaker 10: on budgets right now, and how do you offset that

829
00:41:47,000 --> 00:41:49,960
Speaker 10: is personnel. So I think AI directly and indirectly is

830
00:41:50,000 --> 00:41:51,880
Speaker 10: going to lead us to more job cuts next year

831
00:41:51,920 --> 00:41:54,160
Speaker 10: at the same time that the curve is steepening.

832
00:41:54,360 --> 00:41:56,960
Speaker 2: Rebeccam Partison, thank you so much. I stay with us.

833
00:41:57,239 --> 00:42:00,480
Speaker 3: More from Bloomberg's Surveillance coming up to this.

834
00:42:07,719 --> 00:42:11,320
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us Live

835
00:42:11,360 --> 00:42:14,520
Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern. Listen on

836
00:42:14,600 --> 00:42:18,279
Speaker 1: Applecarplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app, or

837
00:42:18,440 --> 00:42:19,920
Speaker 1: watch us Live on YouTube.

838
00:42:20,080 --> 00:42:23,160
Speaker 2: She returns Lisa Manteo with the newspapers.

839
00:42:23,200 --> 00:42:25,479
Speaker 8: Good morning, Good morning, all right, so we've been hearing

840
00:42:25,520 --> 00:42:28,640
Speaker 8: about this big UFC cage match right taking place at

841
00:42:28,680 --> 00:42:30,959
Speaker 8: the White House South Lawn. Well, the Wall Street Journal

842
00:42:31,000 --> 00:42:34,320
Speaker 8: has a few more details about it. They say President

843
00:42:34,360 --> 00:42:38,040
Speaker 8: Trump's owner, Ivanka Trump, she actually practices Brazilian jiu jitsu.

844
00:42:38,200 --> 00:42:40,560
Speaker 8: She is a UFC fan. She's going to be part

845
00:42:40,600 --> 00:42:43,960
Speaker 8: of the planning process. Lasers and fireworks are going to

846
00:42:44,040 --> 00:42:46,319
Speaker 8: light up the sky. It was supposed to be fourth

847
00:42:46,320 --> 00:42:49,560
Speaker 8: of July, but yeah, too many conflicts obviously, so it's

848
00:42:49,600 --> 00:42:51,799
Speaker 8: going to be sometime in June, ahead of it. They're

849
00:42:51,800 --> 00:42:54,520
Speaker 8: going to have a lot of days of UFC events,

850
00:42:55,040 --> 00:42:59,879
Speaker 8: festivities on the National Wall, mall, autograph sessions, things like that.

851
00:43:00,360 --> 00:43:03,200
Speaker 8: Fighter wighans a press conference plan to be held at

852
00:43:03,239 --> 00:43:06,920
Speaker 8: the steps of the Lincoln Memorial. Fighters could be warming

853
00:43:07,000 --> 00:43:09,759
Speaker 8: up in the White House. So this is going to

854
00:43:09,920 --> 00:43:14,360
Speaker 8: be huge. It is just a big event, and UFC

855
00:43:14,440 --> 00:43:16,000
Speaker 8: has been all you know in the headlines.

856
00:43:16,040 --> 00:43:16,719
Speaker 2: It's a big thing.

857
00:43:16,719 --> 00:43:19,560
Speaker 8: We've heard a lot about UFC and the growing popularity,

858
00:43:19,840 --> 00:43:21,200
Speaker 8: popularity of the sport.

859
00:43:21,440 --> 00:43:22,279
Speaker 2: And the White House is hell.

860
00:43:22,400 --> 00:43:26,399
Speaker 8: You know, tennis matches, t ball fields, pick up basketball games,

861
00:43:26,440 --> 00:43:30,200
Speaker 8: but nothing like to this size. Give people in your household,

862
00:43:30,440 --> 00:43:33,040
Speaker 8: I do, I do, yes, And it's going to bring

863
00:43:33,120 --> 00:43:35,600
Speaker 8: up a whole conversation for another day about where to

864
00:43:35,760 --> 00:43:36,239
Speaker 8: watch it.

865
00:43:36,520 --> 00:43:39,800
Speaker 2: How big is Connor McGregor. Is he like a ginormous steal?

866
00:43:40,320 --> 00:43:40,440
Speaker 3: Uh?

867
00:43:40,640 --> 00:43:42,719
Speaker 8: Yeah, he doesn't fight as much anymore. He's become like

868
00:43:42,760 --> 00:43:47,040
Speaker 8: this movie star in a way too, But it is,

869
00:43:47,080 --> 00:43:49,120
Speaker 8: It is huge and a lot of people.

870
00:43:48,800 --> 00:43:52,320
Speaker 2: Follow it, and yeah, I love your saint, Pierre.

871
00:43:52,520 --> 00:43:57,000
Speaker 8: I'm more of a boxing person, but that's okay, okay.

872
00:43:57,160 --> 00:43:59,839
Speaker 8: So NFL season kicked off last night. The Eagles beat

873
00:43:59,840 --> 00:44:01,920
Speaker 8: the Boys, right. But for the first time ever. What's

874
00:44:01,960 --> 00:44:04,720
Speaker 8: different is that NFL fans could watch every in market

875
00:44:04,760 --> 00:44:08,799
Speaker 8: game on their TVs without pay TV subscription, So that

876
00:44:08,880 --> 00:44:12,000
Speaker 8: was a big thing. The question is, now, how did

877
00:44:12,040 --> 00:44:14,520
Speaker 8: you watch the game right cable streaming?

878
00:44:14,560 --> 00:44:15,160
Speaker 5: What did you do?

879
00:44:15,239 --> 00:44:17,920
Speaker 8: So Business Insider clenched the numbers to see what was

880
00:44:17,920 --> 00:44:21,000
Speaker 8: a better option, and they say cutting the cord would

881
00:44:21,160 --> 00:44:25,359
Speaker 8: only save you a tiny bit cash. Okay, so there's

882
00:44:25,400 --> 00:44:28,600
Speaker 8: a new analysis. So if you subscribe to every streamer

883
00:44:28,640 --> 00:44:31,520
Speaker 8: that carries pro football, you would only save ready a

884
00:44:31,680 --> 00:44:32,919
Speaker 8: dollar and three cents.

885
00:44:32,920 --> 00:44:36,360
Speaker 2: Am there you go? Is it worth it? That's all

886
00:44:35,200 --> 00:44:39,560
Speaker 2: the last decade. Yeah, because you listened to it. Okay.

887
00:44:39,600 --> 00:44:41,959
Speaker 8: So NFL fans, okay, here's what you knew. You would

888
00:44:42,000 --> 00:44:45,360
Speaker 8: need Paramount plus Fox one to watch the in market

889
00:44:45,400 --> 00:44:48,520
Speaker 8: Sunday afternoon games on CBS and Fox. Then you need

890
00:44:48,680 --> 00:44:52,000
Speaker 8: Peacock to watch NBC's Sunday Night Football. Then you need

891
00:44:52,040 --> 00:44:55,319
Speaker 8: the ESPN app to carry Monday night football. Amazon Prime

892
00:44:55,440 --> 00:44:59,160
Speaker 8: Video carries most Thursday games. So together, that's just about

893
00:44:59,200 --> 00:45:02,239
Speaker 8: seventy eight dollars if you want all that and have

894
00:45:02,280 --> 00:45:03,719
Speaker 8: to manage all those subscriptions.

895
00:45:04,760 --> 00:45:06,759
Speaker 2: This is progress, I guess that's what you're telling me.

896
00:45:07,680 --> 00:45:09,920
Speaker 6: I having gown up in the cable TV world, I

897
00:45:09,960 --> 00:45:10,560
Speaker 6: don't get it.

898
00:45:10,560 --> 00:45:12,480
Speaker 8: It's just confusing, Like you want to watch the game?

899
00:45:12,520 --> 00:45:15,440
Speaker 2: Where do you go? What I noticed in the house

900
00:45:15,600 --> 00:45:20,239
Speaker 2: is people are watching less TV. That's the immovable fact. Yeah,

901
00:45:20,360 --> 00:45:23,320
Speaker 2: they're just watching less TV. That's what I say.

902
00:45:23,360 --> 00:45:24,080
Speaker 11: Just stream it.

903
00:45:25,920 --> 00:45:29,040
Speaker 8: Yes, okay, So this is a review from Bloomberg's Top

904
00:45:29,520 --> 00:45:33,080
Speaker 8: Shelf Society. A bottle what they call is one of

905
00:45:33,120 --> 00:45:36,439
Speaker 8: the most fun vodka flavors to ever cross their desk.

906
00:45:36,760 --> 00:45:38,440
Speaker 8: How do we get transferred to this department?

907
00:45:38,520 --> 00:45:39,759
Speaker 2: What do they drink? Work?

908
00:45:40,120 --> 00:45:43,919
Speaker 8: It is pizza flavored vodka. It's from Rhode Islands. It's

909
00:45:43,920 --> 00:45:45,520
Speaker 8: Go Spirits. Costs about thirty bucks.

910
00:45:45,560 --> 00:45:45,840
Speaker 2: Okay.

911
00:45:46,760 --> 00:45:49,279
Speaker 8: They say this one did a disappoint because it has

912
00:45:49,320 --> 00:45:53,320
Speaker 8: this big tomato we scent regino forward flavor, mouth watering,

913
00:45:53,400 --> 00:45:57,280
Speaker 8: garliky exhale. It's also made with mozzarella, which is infused

914
00:45:57,320 --> 00:45:59,359
Speaker 8: at the end. So they say, yeah, you know what

915
00:45:59,440 --> 00:46:02,200
Speaker 8: it does caste like a slice of pizza. So you

916
00:46:02,239 --> 00:46:04,320
Speaker 8: can use it in yes, a bloody mary, but maybe

917
00:46:04,360 --> 00:46:07,520
Speaker 8: your next martini, your next Martin pizza.

918
00:46:08,080 --> 00:46:10,560
Speaker 6: I love vodka, so but I can't put them together.

919
00:46:10,640 --> 00:46:14,560
Speaker 6: Don't put them together now, all right, least tell you

920
00:46:14,640 --> 00:46:16,080
Speaker 6: with the newspapers.

921
00:46:16,080 --> 00:46:16,759
Speaker 2: Thank you so much.

922
00:46:17,239 --> 00:46:22,080
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,

923
00:46:22,200 --> 00:46:26,480
Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday,

924
00:46:26,600 --> 00:46:30,080
Speaker 1: seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the

925
00:46:30,160 --> 00:46:34,200
Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You

926
00:46:34,239 --> 00:46:37,600
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927
00:46:37,800 --> 00:46:39,520
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